Modern economic theory owes a great debt to deceased schizophrenic mathematical genius John Nash profile pages 10–11 Tiger tourists 74 Issue 74 l newsstand price CZK 24/¤ 1 l www.e15.cz 9 771803 454314 A brilliant madness Monday, 8 June 2015 Big spenders from China set their eyes on Prague after devouring Paris feature pages 12–13 No love lost Photo: Reuters for the euro Citizens of the Czech Republic find the idea of using a single European currency about as appealing as that of accepting boatloads of African and Middle Eastern refugees Miroslav Zámečník T he Czech Republic pledged to switch over to the euro twelve years ago when it joined the European Union. Yet there is still not a single political party or movement willing to invest any real political capital in promoting the adoption of the single currency. That leaves only President Miloš Zeman, constitutionally devoid of actual responsibility on this matter, to speak up for as early adoption of the euro as possible. However, he is strikingly alone in this particular endeavour. The rest of the nation seems to consider the idea of using the single currency in its everyday shopping about as appealing as that of accepting boatloads of African and Middle Eastern refugees. The euro was launched not only as a politically ambitious project, but also as a highly prestigious one. Applicants are required to meet specific criteria (which some achieved by rather creative accounting and a host of other tricks) and to maintain a stable exchange rate of the domestic currency with minimal fluctuations for two years. Continues on page 8 2/3 news Stropnický replaces key deputies Igor Záruba’s notebook ODS: The defence ministry is in the middle of a damaging period of upheaval More changes. Defence minister Martin Stropnický (left) gives his reasons for staffing changes at the ministry. Standing next to him is Czech Military Police chief Pavel Kříž and Pavel Beran, deputy for economic and property affairs Roman Molík, brought in by Borovec, is also out as deputy for economic (budgetary) and property affairs. “I must be certain I can rely one-hundred percent on such a person,” explained Stropnický. “I wanted to have a stronger player in place at this post.” Replacing Molík will be Pavel Beran from state-owned firm LOM Praha. According to Civic Democrat MP Jana Černochová, Stropnický’s staffing policies are little short of chaotic. “How is it possible that in less than 18 months, such key posts as the deputy for armament, and deputy for economics have been replaced four times already?” asked Černochová. “Meanwhile, procurements are frozen, army warehouses Procurements are frozen, army warehouses are empty, and last year’s budget increases were only on paper, because so far, soldiers have seen no tangible improvements in their conditions, says Jana Černochová (Civic Democrat) are strikingly empty, and last year’s budget increases were actually only on paper, because so far, soldiers have seen no tangible improvements in their conditions.” Photo: Reuters Roll-ups costing state millions Photo: ČTK A fter 14 months in charge of the Czech Ministry of Defence, Martin Stropnický (ANO) has once again shuffled the deck with regards to his senior staff. The shake-up will yield the third deputy for armament since 2014. Also replaced is the deputy for economic affairs, as well as the deputy for defence policy and strategy. The opposition Civic Democrats have denounced the endless staffing changes at the ministry. Even though Czech civil service law permits the appointment of up to two political deputies, the Czech Ministry of Defence will now have none. The reason is that ANO’s Social Democrat (ČSSD) coalition partners sought a deputy at the ministry responsible for a specific portfolio. Stropnický has emphasised that no top bureaucrats serving at the ministry are members of Andrej Babiš’s ANO party. The changes follow the already announced departure of former ČEZ staffer Jiří Borovec as first deputy at Defence. Surprisingly, David Vagaday Czech finance minister Andrej Babiš has dismissed a study released by the Politics and Society Institute (IPPS) – an organisation founded by himself. The IPPS released a study on excise taxes, which warns that lower taxation of loose rolling tobacco is yielding the Czech treasury 50 percent less in tax revenues than per a standard cigarette. "The current state of taxation is disadvantaging producers of cigarettes," states the study. If the ministry corrected this imbalance, says the institute, the state would gain hundreds of millions in extra revenues. Football earthquake Four days after his re-election for a fifth term as president of FIFA, Sepp Blatter announced he is to step down from his post. The news comes a week after fresh corruption allegations led to the arrest of several top FIFA officials in Zurich following a US Justice Department request. Blatter will remain in his post until a successor is elected The right to smoky air Photo: Tomáš Novák Electra A restored Lockheed Electra 10A, once belonging to shoe manufacturer Jan Antonín Baťa, landed in Prague’s small private Točná Airport at the end of May following a 9,700 km journey across the Atlantic. The twin engine plane, built in 1937, was used for transportation and training in Canada during WWII. Six years ago, it was purchased by Seznam.cz owner Ivo Lukačovič. Following extensive renovation in the US, the plane undertook an eight day trip starting in Toronto, via Greenland, Iceland, the UK, and finally to the Czech Republic. Self-praise wins no points for PM Sobotka When Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka (Social Democrat) boasted about government achievements at a recent Chamber of Commerce gathering, entrepreneurs in attendance were less than enthused. “One of the government’s objectives has been to improve the competitiveness of the Czech Republic,” said Sobotka. “The country has moved up from 33rd place to 29th in this year’s global competitiveness ranking assembled by the prestigious [Swiss] IMD business school.” However, a few minutes later, Jaroslav Hanák, head of the Confederation of Industry of the Czech Republic (SPČR), told the PM that the Czech Republic’s competitiveness rankings were a disgrace. Along with trade and industry minister Jan Mládek, Sobotka fared no better when praising the government for having accelerated economic growth and reducing unemployment. “Such growth is mainly down to efforts by entrepreneurs The government has approved a clampdown on smokers devised by health minister Svatopluk Němeček, it will come into force next January. The move, which includes a ban on smoking in restaurants, is hardly a bolt from the blue – the trend across the world is very much in this direction. It was only a matter of time until the Czech Republic boarded the train, too. Countries which have banned smoking in public places have reaped dramatic public health benefits. Fears that customers would avoid pubs, bars and restaurants have also proven unfounded. But what about offering smokers a fenced-off area – inside or out – to indulge their habit? The current Czech conception makes no concessions in this regard. Smoking areas outside places of work also appear increasingly under threat. Back in 2011, New York even went so far as to ban smoking in outdoor public places such as Times Square and thousands of public parks. Conversely, Germany and France enable facilities to offer outdoor seating where smoking is permitted. Such concessions require investments from businesses, but also offer compromise rather than rigid bans. After all, smokers are people too, and given the tax revenues generated from cigarette sales, perhaps some degree of tolerance should be considered. Marian Hronek’s notebook Love thy neighbour Jan Stuchlík Photo: ČTK defence Pavel Otto Star-studded guest list. Politicians court business figures from across the Czech Republic. Pictured are PM Bohuslav Sobotka and President Miloš Zeman and businesses,” Hanák countered. Finance Minister Andrej Babiš, also in attendance, tried in vain to convince the assembled business reps of the government’s strenuous efforts aimed at reducing the deficit. “This year’s budget deficit will be CZK 100bn and CZK 70bn next year. In the first four months of this year, the national debt decreased by CZK 20bn,” argued Babiš. A list of ten Chamber of Commerce priorities for the government included a call for a significant reduction of the public structural deficit. French politician Marine Le Pen, who inherited the xenophobic and far-right National Front party from her father Jean-Marie, is seeking to steer a somewhat more moderate course. During a recent visit to Egypt, Le Pen met not only with Coptic Christians, but also with local Muslim representatives. However, after her journey, the nationalist politician declared that her hostile position on migration to Europe from Muslim countries remains unchanged: “We cannot welcome migrants to France. The only solution is to protect them in their home countries.” Yes – love thy neighbour... Just don’t get too close. But the forethought of the French politician went further still, telling her North African hosts that: “We consider Egypt a bastion that will defend us.” Presumably from those whom we are protecting from afar. Such pearls of wisdom really make our world shine brightly. E15 weekly, economic and business newsmagazine | www.e15.cz | Tomáš Skřivánek, Euro E15 Division Director | Igor Záruba, Executive Editor, [email protected]; Marian Hronek, Editor, [email protected] | Contacts: Zuzana Faltová, Secretary | Call (+420) 225 276 461, | Postal address: Mezi Vodami 1952/9, 143 00 Praha 4 – Modřany | Published by Mladá fronta a. s., Mezi Vodami 1952/9, 143 00 Praha 4 | David Hurta, Chief Executive Officer | Advertising: David Korn, Sales Director, [email protected] | Production and distribution: Soňa Štarhová, Director, Call (+420) 225 276 252 | Marketing: Hana Holková, Director, Call (+420) 225 276 276 Registration E 21420 E15 weekly, ISSN: 1803-4543 | Reprints & Permissions: The Publisher will consider requests for reprints or any other reproduction | Printed by: EuRoPRINT a. s. 4/5 business Czech Republic facing milk crisis NOSTALGIE Prices of dairy products have collapsed to near cost of production I n recent weeks, supplies of unsold dairy products have begun to accumulate across the EU, including in the Czech Republic. At fault is last year’s overproduction of milk, as well as the ban introduced last August by Russia on numerous food item imports from the EU. Milk producers and farmers are paying the price. Prices of dairy products have collapsed to near cost of production, and farmers have been hit by the spiralling purchasing price of raw milk. From last year’s CZK 10 per litre, the price has now fallen to the current seven crowns. Producers have been pleading for the state to intervene, and responsive moves are now under preparation at the Administration of State Material Reserves [SSHR]. “All dairy farms are drowning in goods. The warehouses of [South Bohemian dairy product producer] Madeta are at historically high levels. We have never had higher supplies of consumer-ready products than now,” Milan Teplý, head of Madeta, told E15. The company processes more than 1m litres of raw milk per day – according to Teplý, at present it is over-producing by 150,000 litres. Madeta is presently increasing production of long-lasting dried milk as a way to utilise excess milk. “But both [fresh and dried] are being sold below cost right now. This represents some CZK 17m in monthly losses for producers,” added Teplý. “The entire sector is witnessing increased warehousing, and we are no different,” says Jiří Tvrdík, head of Mlékárna Hlinsko dairy farm, part of the Agrofert empire. “Dairy farms across the entire EU are feeling the impact. Commodity prices began to fall last summer; at the start of this year, the trend began accelerating further.” Miroslav Toman, head of the Czech Agrarian Chamber (AK), rang alarm bells over the current situation at a recent forum held in Žofín Palace: “If ministry-level measures are not forthcoming, then within three months we Overproducing by 150,000 litres. The company Madeta processes more than 1m litres of raw milk per day Photo: Jan Hrouda milk industry Dušan Kütner REZIDENCE BŘEVNOV could see some very serious consequences.” Specific measures demanded by milk producers include increased purchasing of milk products into state reserves, or an increase in the in- tervention price at which milk is obliged to be purchased by emergency agencies. But the Ministry of Agriculture says it has no plans at present to intervene. “The situ- ation in the Czech dairy sector is serious, but I am not prepared to say that it is dramatic or critical,” Minister Marian Jurečka (KDU-ČSL) said at the aforementioned forum. 22 Dramatic slump in Czech exports to Russia Photo: Profimedia German industry supports the continuation of sanctions currently imposed against Russia by the EU. So says Ulrich Grillo, head of the Federation of German Industry (BDI, pictured). “Long-term adherence to international law is more important than short-term gain,” said Grillo 35.8% is the Q1 2015 slump in Czech firms’ exports to Russia the country,” warns Váradi, “They need to restructure their manufacturing sector. If they face increased global isolation, then future growth will be tough.” Manufacturing and export to Russia is being kept alive even by strongly critical countries such as the US. One example of continued Czech investment is Agrostroj, the largest domestic producer of farming technology. The firm is set to build a new factory in Russia. a dve r t i s ing A150000825 Continued sanctions Exports by Czech firms to Russia fell 38.5 percent, to around CZK 18bn, during first quarter 2015, according to newly available data. During the same period last year, exported goods worth CZK 28bn headed to Russia. However, the reason for the decline is not only – as one might expect – sanctions pertaining the Ukrainian crisis, but also the expiration of several crucial orders at the end of 2014. Yet, despite uncertain conditions, large Czech firms are seeking to maintain a foothold in Russia. “The Russian market is functioning, and is functioning very well,” insists Petr Váradi, Technical Director of machine tool maker Kovosvit MAS. “But infrastructure is aging in Štěpán Bruner DRTINOVA 6/7 End of the line! Jana Havligerová’s political diary The conclusion of the Nagyová fiasco could be that politicians essentially become untouchable Limitless chains of fools which cited the MPs parliamentary immunity. The trio received a public apology from Justice Minister Robert Pelikán (ANO) and are also set to gain millions in compensation from the state. Lawmakers now have a strong case for making state prosecutors bear greater responsibility for their actions. But this could lead to politicians and other powerful people becoming untouchable and above the law – something that even the greatest critics of Ištvan do not want. But justice in this country has been Lawmakers now have a strong case for making state prosecutors bear greater responsibility for their actions. This could lead to politicians and other powerful figures rising above the law declared that insufficient evidence existed to find the four guilty of abusing intelligence for political gain. It would be very difficult for an appeals court to reverse such a finding. And so the Czech public can be assured that what occurred in June 2013 does not amount to an effective anti-corruption drive by police and prosecutors, but rather to a regular police putsch cut from the cloth of some banana republic. The case surrounding Nagyová’s resigned in disgrace on 29 May as soon as the verdict was announced. A similar fiasco surrounds the prosecution of former MPs Petr Tluchoř, Marek Šnajdr and Ivan Fuksa, accused of resigning in 2012 in exchange for lucrative private sector jobs – and thus helping the troubled Nečas government survive a no confidence vote. Their subsequent prosecution – also pursued from Olomouc – was stopped by a High Court ruling in 2013, tainted, and now prosecutors can only wait for what our legislature intends to do about this fact. Too late. Supreme State Attorney Pavel Zeman should have intervened to reign in incompetent prosecutors. He, too, bears responsibility for placing yet another roadblock in the path of the Czech Republic slowly building a functional judicial system with norms and traditions similar to those of other, more advanced, democratic states. ODS Chairman Petr Fiala reckons things are “looking sweet” for the party – debts are being repaid, prudent financial decisionmaking is occurring, and it should even end up in the black by year’s end. Great. Now all you need is some voters. Meanwhile, 700 inhabitants of Prague’s Dejvice and Bubeneč quarters are suing authorities for gastric ailments caused by tap water contaminated by coliform bacteria and noroviruses. Such water was drunk by thousands before the problem was detected. Thank goodness The government is failing the problem is being to carry out investments, fixed. Or is it? Dejvice make savings, and and Bubeneč authorities conduct debt repayments simply declared the water in a period of relative fit again for consumption. economic prosperity. The clever wording President Zeman’s avoided any mention of personal Russia policy is the water’s past state. undermining our country’s Lines at trucks dispensing security. Finance Minister alternative drinking water Andrej Babiš is clearly remained in place when abusing his power to help the declaration was made. his business interests. Not long after, however, The above sums up the the trucks disappeared, sentiments expressed as has, evidently, any at the Civic Democrat responsibility for those (ODS) party congress. who caused this problem Oh, and one more thing: in the first place. joke ad ve r t is i ng A151005117 T he recent acquittal of Jana Nagyová Nečasová, the former mistress and subsequent wife of ex-PM Petr Nečas, and three Czech Military Intelligence Service [VZ] aides must be viewed as a disastrous fiasco for the Olomouc state prosecutors and the Czech police’s Organised Crime Unit. Ultimately, the judge, Helena Králová, alleged abuse of military intelligence was supposed to be the clearest of the wrongdoings in the entire Nagyová scandal. Initially, a prosecution was supposed to begin within three months of her arrest. Ultimately, the affair dragged on for a year and ended in a fizzle. The fact that state prosecutors also denounced, without any merit, three highly decorated members of the military, is simply a disgrace. And Olomouc’s State High Prosecutor Ivo Ištvan and his entire team should have A quartet of Czechs –TOP 09 Chairman Karel Schwarzenberg, party Deputy Chair Marek Ženíšek, Euro MP Jaromír Štětina and former European Commissioner Štefan Füle – are among the 89 European politicians and members of the military declared persona non grata by Russia last week. In a self-declared act of “good faith” Moscow handed over the list of names to a visiting EU delegation. It’s a shame that such good faith does not extend to revealing the list of those whom the Kremlin would greet with open arms. Photo: ČTK Pavel Páral HUGO BOSS International Markets AG Phone +41 41 72 73 800 www.hugoboss.com opinion Prague 1 BOSS Store Na Příkopě 6 Prague 6 BOSS Store Václav Havel Airport Prague, Terminal 1, Departure Hall A Prague 6 BOSS Store Václav Havel Airport Prague, Terminal 2, Departure Hall C 8/9 cover story Of course, a small and open economy such as the Czech one is a perfect example for traditional arguments in favour of adopting the single currency: reduced transaction costs, elimination of exchange rate risks in trading with key business partners, and with it improved conditions conducive to the growth of both trade and investment. However, the gloriole of the single currency and the weight of economic arguments have always been rather absent from the public take on things. The fact that the country is still outside the eurozone is down to more than the global crisis of 2008. Aversion to the single currency has deep historical and psychological roots. The nation’s collective consciousness still vividly remembers the currency of the First Republic. Czechoslovakia avoided a wave of inflation that ripped through all the neighbouring countries, while the Czech crown remained strong. And the nation still clings to this image of a stable currency. It is not a conviction that would necessarily have a sound base in the real economy, yet strongly held emotions prevail. Czechoslovakia maintained the strength of its currency even at the expense of a deepening economic recession and high rates of unemployment, which persisted until February 1934. Conversely, the monetary reform of 1953 is remembered as a detested move by the communist government, leading to long years of the crown as a non-convertible currency. Even Hungarian forints were rationed, and travelling to Tito’s Yugoslavia required a special permit. Following the introduction of limited convertibility in January 1991, Czechs considered the temporary fixed exchange rate to the German mark as extortionate, but the rapid growth of incomes eventually transformed Czech travellers, bringing their own food abroad, into normalspending tourists. The continued improvement of consumer comforts abroad brought about by the gradually strengthening domestic currency only reinforced the memory of the pre-war crown as a safe haven. Differing motivations Each of the post-communist countries that have become a part of the eurozone followed a very different set of motives to that of the Czech Republic. Slovenia, which ditched the tolar in favour of the euro in 2007, lacked any analogy to the pre-war crown and there was no other benefit to holding on to a currency devoid of a sentimental value in a small country mainly trading with Austria and Italy. For Slovakia, adopting the euro was more or less the only reasonable solution: the post-split Slovak crown was viewed as a token of weakness unless it could match the Czech crown, 12-month average of HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) inflation of no more than 1.5 percentage points above the reference value obtained as the average for three countries with the lowest inflation rates Government budget deficit No more than 3 percent of GDP Government debt-to-GDP ratio No more than 60 percent of GDP Exchange rate stability Pavel Páral At least two years of participation in ERM II (Exchange Rate Mechanism) without a breach of the ±15.0 percent fluctuation range and without devaluation of the central rate pegged to the euro Just one politician in the Czech Republic appears genuinely enthusiastic about a speedy adoption of the euro and that is President Miloš Zeman Why should we strive to adopt the euro as soon as possible? For reasons similar to those of Slovakia where 70 percent of people are content with the single currency. Plus the fact that it would raise the credibility of our country and facilitate an influx of new foreign investment. And that is something foreign entrepreneurs have told me themselves. Long-term interest rates Yield on 10-year government bonds should be no more than 2 percentage points above the average for three countries with the lowest HICP inflation something that was achieved for only a very short stretch of time. At the time of the euro adoption one euro was worth 30.126, Slovak crowns, well below today’s exchange rate for the Czech crown. This fact has faded from memory to such a degree that even President Zeman seems blissfully unaware of it and continues promoting the adoption of the euro when the currency is strong while criticising the Czech National Bank (ČNB) for its commitment to an exchange rate of CZK 27 per euro. Slovakia was followed by all three Baltic states, for whom adopting the single currency was viewed as a highly sensible move. All of them entered the euro camp in order to distance themselves from the Russian rouble. There was nothing sentimental about the decision – it was highly strategic and pragmatic. Any other choice would have proven costly, as the states found out in 2008, when foreign capital drained from their economies leading to immediate and drastic austerity measures and a reduction in wages and pensions. Repulsive attraction Greek crash test. The single currency is enduring its greatest challenge yet as a result of the Greek crisis. The Czech Republic should pay close attention before deciding to join the eurozone club Photo: archive Continued from page 1 Price stability The Czech Republic is very different in this respect: there is hardly any other country so closely linked to the eurozone economically, yet so aversive to the idea of adopting the single currency due to reasons of history and emotion. Photos: Reuters No love lost for the euro The only argument against the euro is Greece Euro convergence criteria It would be foolish to hope for any sort of economic detachment from the eurozone. The maximum difference that diverted exports might achieve would be a couple of percentage points. The Czech Republic cannot reasonably afford to over-value the crown in a way that would markedly exceed the growth of wages, or labour productivity, compared to Germany. And so it must be stated: the expansion of the common market has been an exceptional success for Europe. Of course, this does not fully apply to peripheral counties, but this description does not encompass the Czech Republic, which has certainly benefited, and will continue to benefit, from free trade, free movement of capital, people and services. On the other hand, there is no real need to participate in an ambitious eurozone project, which has managed to fuse together hitherto disparate parties, now forced to reap the fruits of such idealism. We were not there when this process was initiated, and the resultant sour fruits are not down to our actions. The Czech Republic may possess a natural affinity towards the post-communist bloc, but it can hardly be expected to bear any economic, moral and social responsibility for Greece. This country must understand its place within the Balkans. Right now, the Bulgarians or Romanians can hardly be seen as much better at governance. Nonetheless, Romania is presently a far better investment target. If Greece does eventually return to the drachma then real wages will adjust very quickly in a downwards direction, unless propped by increased productivity. The same will happen if Greece sticks with the euro – only at a much slower pace. This close link between labour productivity and wages should provide some serious food for thought for Josef Středula, head of the Czech-Moravian Confederation of Trade Unions (ČMKOS), a vocal supporter of wages catching up with those of Germany and Austria. The fastest rate of wage growth in history came about after the reunification of Germany, when wages in the new former East German fede- There is no real need to participate in an ambitious eurozone project, which managed to fuse together hitherto disparate parties, but is now forced to reap the fruits of such idealism. We were not there when this process was initiated, and the resultant sour fruits are not down to our actions ral states were adjusted to match those in the west of the country, regardless of actual productivity. Consequently, most east German industry nosedived, with considerable job losses. The former East Germany remains dependent on subsidies from the west to this day. Lacking a wealthy brother, Czech trade unionists should take stock of labour costs and productivity. Is Czech productivity higher than that in Germany or Austria? A strengthening economy can certainly lead to understandable calls for higher pay, but excessive demands are a clear path to trouble. Anyone thinking otherwise has no place in a currency union with a country such as Germany. What do you think would be the benefits, and the costs, for the Czech Republic of adopting the single currency? I have already mentioned the benefits. Where costs are concerned, they would exist only if the eurozone continued to fund Greece balancing on the brink of bankruptcy. That is what I consider the strongest argument against adopting the euro at present. What is your opinion of the current institutional framework of the common currency and its development in recent years? I am of the opinion that the European Union is currently standing on one economic leg – namely the common currency – and it also needs a joint fiscal and tax policy. It would be impossible to keep standing on one leg long-term without completing such an institutional framework. What should the government and the Czech National Bank do? Above all, they should explain both the positive and negative aspects of the single European currency, since public knowledge regarding the euro is still quite low and the negative stance shared by a majority of Czech society stems, in my opinion, from a fear of the unknown. 10/11 profile The strange genius of John Nash T he word “hacker” was invented by John Nash some time in the 1950s. It was meant as an insult directed at students who were cutting corners. A “hack” is slang for someone who is not to be taken seriously, while “to hack”, as a verb, is to cut and chop with irregular blows and clear away. Ironically, in a sense, the ultimate death of Nash was a kind of hack, too. Evidence suggests, the mathematics mastermind forgot to buckle up in a New Jersey taxi. It was a rather unusual end to a rather unusual life Lukáš Kovanda Two lives were lost on the New Jersey Turnpike on 23 May – those of both John Nash, and his life-long love, wife Alice, whom he married twice and divorced once. They would die together, too, John aged 86, and Alice, aged 82. And with that, the world lost one of the greatest mathematical minds of the 20th century. Nash versus Lennon This author met Nash in the summer of 2011. We had quite a lengthy discussion together at Princeton University, New Jersey. It was a weekend, the campus was empty, the lecture halls abandoned. Silence. It was like in the 1960s, when those very same halls were visited by “The Phantom from Fine Hall”. Fine Hall is home to Princeton’s Department of Mathematics. It is here that the gaunt, lanky, mathematics graduate would draw an array of unusual messages on the blackboard. He was haunted by voices in his head. From 1959 onwards, Nash’s life began to fall apart as the result of acute paranoid schizophrenia. But by this time, Nash already had many achievements under his belt. In 1950, aged just 22, he was awarded a Ph.D. In a recommendation letter for graduate studies at Princeton, a former teacher wrote simply: “This man is a genius”. Enough said. Generation-older mathematicians could only simmer with envy as Nash began to formulate solutions to some of the hitherto toughest mathematical problems in existence. Nash’s discoveries often centred around “game theory” – with contemporary applications spanning economics, evolutionary biology, accounting, politology, computing, artificial intelligence and the military. The genius became an instant star, and was described by Fortune magazine in 1958 as a shining light of “new mathematics”. Fellow Nobel Prize winner Robert Aumann, whom I also had the chance to meet in 2011, is convinced that during the 1960s game theory helped to prevent World War III, and with that global annihilation. As we talked, Aumann wrote down a Latin adage: “Si vis pacem, para bellum” – “If you want peace, prepare for war”. But it wasn’t until the development of Nash’s game theories that such a maxim gained a scientific basis, and accompanying credibility reflective of late-20th century thinking. At first glance, theoretical game theory modelling appears to create counter-intuitive conclusions. Isn’t the path to peace total disarmament? Such questions were asked by the “flower children” of the 1960s along the lines of John Lennon’s later “Imagine”. The answer proved otherwise. Disarmament is in practice unattainable, argued Nash, Aumann and others. Peace, so says their counter-intuitive conclusion, can more often be best achieved through significant armament, including of the nuclear variety. “Nuclear weapons serve as a deterrent,” says Aumann. Such mutually assured destruction maintains a stalemate, kept in check by the simple concept of fear. With that, geopolitical balance is maintained. And so, the utopian vision is actually the weaponised one, with, conversely, unilateral concessions leading to the most bloodshed. War and schizophrenia But game theory has contributed to far more than just the revision of old adages about war. It also analyses the state of play, in which the success of one or the other player (or wider entities such as companies and states) is based upon the choices made by others. Thus, it represents a discipline, which studies a wide array of adversarial decisionmaking processes, in which conflicts of interests can arise. Game theory models try to not only analyse such scenarios, but, through use of modelling and predictive mapping, to also offer the best potential strategies for specific players within conflicts. In a specific form, focused on the field of international relations, game theory had advocates among President John Kennedy’s inner circle (who faced the ultimate standoff during the Cuban Missile Crisis). Later, under President John Forbes Nash Jr. (86) » Born 13 June, 1928 in West Virginia; father an electrical engineer, mother a teacher » The parents strongly supported their son’s education, particularly in mathematics; mother Virginia supplemented her son’s schooling at home, and father John proudly bought his son several science books » Of all the scientific fields, young John Nash initially did best in chemistry but also began taking supplemental maths courses at Bluefield College; awarded a scholarship at the Carnegie Institute of Technology, and subsequently Princeton University » Gained a Ph.D. in 1950 with a dissertation on “non-cooperative games”. In 1994, the work was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences » Married Alicia Esther Lopez-Harrison in 1957, an El Salvadorian graduate of physics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) » Resigned from the MIT Mathematics Faculty in 1959. Following increasingly erratic behaviour, was involuntarily hospitalised in a Boston psychiatric clinic, diagnosed with paranoid schizophrenia; divorced wife in 1963 – and remarried her in 2001 » Began his return to academic life in the 1980s. Thanks to e-mail, began communicating with many noted mathematicians of the day. They were delighted to reacquaint themselves with the “same old Nash” and found that he still had many contributions to make to the field. One later interest for Nash was the function of money in society » The biographical book “A Beautiful Mind”, by author Sylvia Nasar, was published in 1998; three years later it inspired a film of the same name the Soviet Union. The details of this were only published in the 1990s. Although other players such as Aumann, have pushed the field forward, its pioneer was undoubtedly John Nash. Paradoxically, global Armageddon may have been prevented thanks to Nash was unique in every possible way. Even in how he finally left the world Richard Nixon, National Security Advisor, and subsequent Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger was an adherent. As was Herman Kahn, a military strategist and author of the 1960 book “On Thermonuclear War” (he was also an inspiration for Stanley Kubrick’s satire “Dr. Strangelove” (1964)). During the 1960s, game theory played a major role in the US’s Cold War approach to Photo: Profimedia.cz one man’s paranoid schizophrenia (one early manifestation of the disease in Nash was related to apparent communist conspiracies in the US). “It may be true that a certain correlation exists between the rejection of formal thought patterns and the ability to think in an original and creative manner,” Nash told me, adding: “I also think that my scientific ideas would not have come to the fore had I thought in a normal way. After all, Albert Einstein was hardly normal either. And Newton was an acute neurotic.” Not mad, but unique More than half a century on from the onset of schizophrenia, during our conversation, the former “phantom” Nash came across as eccentric rather than “mad”. During the 1980s, the affects of Nash’s disease began to notably fade. In 1994, the scientist was awarded the Nobel Prize for Economics. In 2001, the mathematician also married for a second time – to the same wife he had divorced back in 1953, Alicia Nash. Also in 2001, the biographical movie “A Beautiful Mind” (based on a 1998 book) starring Russell Crowe as Nash, was released. It ultimately won four Academy Awards. “Now I, too, am 10 years older, my health a little shakier, but my opinion on that film remains the same,” Nash told me. “It was a clever film. But not exactly an objective biography. But I suppose it has to be that way – in life, far more happens than can fit into a book or a movie.” Nash, albeit indirectly, assuredly played a central role contributing towards world peace (or better put, towards the prevention of World War III). Asides from his Nobel Prize, Nash was also awarded (with colleague Louis Nirenberg) the 2015 Abel Prize – a kind of Nobel Prize for Mathematics. Indeed, it was on his journey home from collecting the award in Norway, that the accident occurred which ultimately ended Nash’s life. In person, Nash had the aura of being somehow untouched by the very achievements that had brought him countless accolades. Slow steps, eccentric mannerisms, a wavering voice, and a degree of shyness – hardly attributes one would associated with success. But then summing up Nash as a mere “success” is not worthy of the man’s contributions. Nash was unique in every possible way. Even in how he finally left our world. The author is the chief economist at financial group Roklen 12/13 feature Devoured by China’s tiger tourists B ig on spending. Big on luxury. Paris has become the dream city for tourists from the Middle Kingdom. But now Prague, too, is increasingly on the radar for the eager Chinese Petr Horký We sit in the McDonald’s on Wenceslas Square as Mr. Li places his tourist guide accreditation card on the table. Next to that he also places a card permitting him to operate a taxi service. Li says the second card is far more important. Because showing Chinese tourists around Europe actually entails countless hours spent behind the wheel. “Very few people want to only see the Czech Republic,” explains the Chinese native in fairly decent Czech. Li, wearing a baseball cap on his head, looks much younger than his 64 years. Li Pao-Tcheng was born in Beijing, but has lived in Prague for the last 20 years. Before he began guiding upper-middle class countrymen around Europe, he worked as a textile trader. But following the global economic crisis of 2009, Li’s business hit the rocks, and so he decided to become a tour guide instead. He became acquainted with the field by guiding friends of friends around for free. But then, one day, a Chinese friend who operated a travel agency offered him a paid job as a tour guide. Since that time, Li has successfully made a living in this endeavour, and can today boast that he is one of the most experienced tour guides working in Prague. “I have contacts for 150 travel agencies in my phone. When one calls, I go to work.” Li isn’t worried about work drying up, rather the opposite – the numbers of Chinese tourists visiting Europe continues to increase, and should do so for some time yet. Paris, je t’aime Last year, around 109 million Chinese travelled outside of the country. By 2019, the annual figure is expected to reach 174 million. Back in 2000, the number was a mere 10 million. The rise of the Chinese tourist serves as a reflection of the increasing prosperity of the world’s most populous nation. A similar wave of Japanese tourists erupted around 30 years ago, bringing with it stereotypes of Asian tourists filming and photographing absolutely everything . Figures show that Chinese tourists mostly travel around Asia; but Europe has become the second most popular destination, with Paris the most popular city. Last year, 2.2 million Chinese visited the French capital. In comparison: last year, 211,000 Chinese visited Prague – up a fifth from the previous year. But the Czech embassy in Beijing, and consulate in Shanghai, only issued around 17,000 visas – meaning that most Chinese are arriving elsewhere in the Schengen zone of EU countries first. A new Hainan Airlines direct flight is set to change all that this autumn. But Li is somewhat sceptical: “It will increase the numbers, but not by a huge amount. For Chinese, it is still easier to get a visa at the German or French embassies. Getting a Czech visa is harder. Even Hungarian or Austrian visas are easier.” Although Li lives in Prague, he is equally at home in his trade in France, northern Italy, southern Croatia, and Switzerland. Picking up the next flock, for example, in Paris, is all part of the job. In such a case, he heads to France a day early, to be on the safe side. The minibus trip takes 15 hours. He then waits a day by the river Seine for his customers to arrive. Large groups of around 40 – meaning budget groups who have purchased a package holiday from a large travel agent – are something Li now caters to only on occasion. Most often, he serves as guide to far smaller groups of around eight people – enough to fit in his minibus. After picking groups up in Paris, Frankfurt or anywhere else, he stays with them for between 8-12 days. During this time, a thorough European tour is provided. But most common for Li is a tour around Central Europe – starting in Poland or Germany, and then traversing the Czech Republic, through to Austria and Hungary. His tourists spend roughly 2-4 days in the Czech Republic. During that time, they either visit Prague alone, or traverse a route taking in Prague, Karlovy Vary, Pilsen, Český Krumlov, Kutná Hora and back again. Presently, the Moravian capital Brno is off the itinerary. “Then we go to Vienna, spending four or five days in Austria; after that three days in Hungary, and there it ends,” relates Li. “But that is only an example. Other groups can travel to Germany. I go everywhere with my customers. I must be familiar with the histories of all these countries. When we visit Schönbrunn Palace [in Vienna], I must be able to explain who Sisi, Franz Joseph, and Maria Theresa were. When not on these tours, I spend each and every minute further studying and educating myself.” 18,000 crowns per head But Chinese visitors in Europe aren’t simply interested in historical sightseeing. Indeed, the Chinese have gained a reputation for unmatched profligacy during their vacations – beating even the excesses of the Russian upper-crust. Luxury brands are a central target for such shoppers. For one, such actions reflect a custom of brining back expensive gifts from a foreign trip. But at the same time, luxury goods are far cheaper to purchase in Europe than in China. Last year, Chinese tourists abroad spent USD 165bn (CZK 4tn). Consequently, countries are rushing to attract this extremely lucrative clientele. And such steps can be achieved, for example, by loosening visa requirements, or launching airline routes connecting with the major Chinese cities. Undoubtedly, the Czech Republic is among those countries vying for a slice of the Chinese cake. Last year, on average, each Chinese visitor spent CZK 17,918 per capita, according to data from Global Blue, a firm which refunds VAT on purchases made by Chinese in the Czech Republic. But the reality on the ground is a little different – not all purchases by visitors from China are declared. This means, actual numbers are potentially much higher. As to what Chinese visitors purchase whilst in the country: a cursory Chinese visitors to Europe aren’t only interested in historical sightseeing. They also want to spend, spend, spend on luxury goods and brands walk around Prague’s Old Town will provide the answer. Chinese tourists are particularly interested in luxury brands such as Louis Vuitton or Prada – such items are bought in the upscale Pařížská boulevard. As for specifically Czech products, the most common are Czech crystal glass, or precious stones such as moldavites and garnets, which can be found in stores on Karlová street or on Old Town Square. Li also mentions the Botanicus store, which sells natural scented soaps. Interestingly, Chinese abroad, while certainly sampling foreign cuisines, still prefer to dine at local Chinese restaurants, says Lin: “Of Czech food, they like roast pork knuckle, duck and goulash. They also like French restaurants. But most of all Chinese restaurants. In Prague, this includes a Shanghai-style establishment in Anglická street, or a Chinese food restaurant in Evropská. Though the Chinese food here is different to that Photos: Martin Pinkas Minibus tour guide. Li Pao-Tcheng has lived in the Czech Republic for 20 years. His tour guide duties involve picking up arriving Chinese tourists and guiding them across the continent Spendthrift vacationers. Czechs should certainly welcome Chinese tourists with open arms. On average, last year, each Chinese visitor spent CZK 18,000 in the country. Average visits to Prague were 2-4 days at home. The visitors don’t find it to be as good, but there is no other choice. I don’t think they could survive on just Czech food alone. But what they do like a great deal is Czech beer.” In terms of hotels, Chinese tourists in Prague mostly prefer to stay in four or five-star accommodation. Of the latter, this includes the Hilton, and of the former the Vysočany Clarion or Duo in Prosek, says Li. And no trip across Europe with Mr. Li would be complete without a stop at a huge outlet centre on the edge of town. Alas, hard luck for Czech shopkeepers, who apparently do not stock the truly luxury labels sought by Chinese tourists. And so Li mostly takes his tourists to Metzingen near Stuttgart, or to Berndorf near Vienna, or to The Mall in Milan, or to Village Outlet in Paris. If the current route fails to pass by any of these locations, or if clients expressly ask to shop in a Czech outlet store, then Li takes them to Fashion Arena in Štěrboholy on the eastern edge of Prague. When a group of tourists arrives in Europark (the name of the shopping centre at Štěrboholy), each tourist receives a 10-percent discount card. On average, Chinese tourists spend around CZK 3,000 in Fashion Arena. A special “Tourism Manager”, Alena Kudílková, is tasked solely with attracting and satisfying the needs of foreign shoppers. Hitherto, these have mainly been Russians. But times are changing. “Only recently have we directed our efforts towards the Chinese customer base,” says Kudílková. “They comprise around seven percent of all foreign customers. But that number is on the rise. It is an interesting clientele. They arrive wellprepared. They know exactly what brands they want, and what they want to buy. The chief items bought by Chinese here are shoes, handbags, jewellery, and watches. Luxury items and brands. In the future, we would like to orient more towards these upscale brands.” Compared to last March, Fashion Arena saw a year-onyear 130 percent increase in Chinese customers; during the first quarter of this year, they spent 76 percent more than during the same period in 2014. Fashion Arena is also seeking to further aid Chinese shoppers by expanding its acceptance of China UnionPay credit cards. 14/15 wine & dine society society RemembeR Vietnamese Food Charity ride Wednesday, June 3, saw the start of the sixth annual Bicycle Ride for Children (Na kole dětem). The charity event began in the western town of Aš. Led by professional cyclist Josef Zimovčák, participants will traverse the Czech Republic. If all goes according to plan, by June 13, they will reach the finishing line in Bruntál. Also along for the ride are renowned surgeons Jan Pirk and Pavel Pafko, seven-times Czech badminton champion Petr Koukal, car racer Karel Loprais, and three-times artistic cycling world champion Martina Trnková. Insurer MetLife is serving as main sponsor, supporting the charity’s Endowment Fund with a gift of CZK 250,000. Money collected as a result of the ride will be used to help young cancer patients Un‘pho’gettable Photo: Dachser The decor is undistinguished but the authentic and well prepared Vietnamese food is worth going back for out to asia Photo: Metlife Get your subscription! The Verdict RemembeR Vietnamese Food Biskupská 5 Prague 1 tel.: 602 889 089 e-mail: info@ remembervietnam.cz www.rememberasianfood.cz You can subscribe securely via e-mail Monday, 8 June 2015 CZK 24/¤ 1 l www.e15.cz Issue 74 l newsstand price A brilliant madness Modern economic theory owes a great debt to deceased schizophrenic mathematical genius John Nash profile pages 10–11 Good Vietnamese food at very fair prices Unattractive environs and rather basic service Another popular order here is Bun cha, grilled pork belly with thin rice noodles and a spicy homemade sweet and sour dressing. The pork belly is well done, crunchy in places and accompanied by chopped iceberg lettuce and herbs. The extensive menu also runs to Thai and Chinese dishes as well as several vegetarian options priced at less than CZK 120. Tiger tourists Use the e-mail address [email protected], State your name and delivery address. Use the code WEEK 0615 as the message subject 74 starter than the restaurant’s fresh spring rolls, which combine shrimp, chicken, rice noodles, vegetables, and herbs in a wrap of translucent rice paper. The latter look appetising on the plate but are otherwise unremarkable, with the taste of shrimp almost completely lost among the other ingredients. The fried spring rolls are a better option, with their harmonious and tasty meat and vegetable filling. Of the main dishes, the list of ph noodle soups should not be overlooked. I usually choose one of the many beef varieties, although the chicken is also good. The soups come with all the traditional accompaniments, including bean sprouts, chilli and lime. If soup doesn’t appeal then try the Bun bo Nam Bo, a speciality of Southern Vietnam. These are thin rice noodles with sautéed beef, fresh cucumber, sweet-pickled carrots, mixed greens and a sprinkling of chopped, roasted peanuts and spring onions. The dish not only looks a treat but is also very healthy and filling. 9 771803 454314 W hen a busy work schedule calls for a healthy and satisfying lunch, it’s uncanny how Remember Vietnamese Food always seems to spring to mind. You may baulk at the rather shabby interior, which hardly differs from the many other Asian restaurants around town, but don’t let that deter you. The restaurant is clean and functional and the food is very good for the price, with most dishes costing less than CZK 150. I like to start with the Phở cuởn, which sounds like a Vietnamese soup, but is more like bun bo nam bo. a variation on spring rolls. Thin rice noodles with sautéed beef, mixed salad and peanuts The wrap is a somewhat thicker rice pancake, while don’t the filling consists of sautéed miss it. beef in a sweetish marinade Chicken with mixed salad and herbs. special The rolls are plump, handhot, and the taste of nicely seasoned beef predominates. They are accompanied by a classic Vietnamese sweet and sour dipping sauce made of rice wine vinegar, fish sauce, water, sugar, garlic, chilli and other ingredients. These beefy spring rolls make a far more satisfying a dve r t i s i ng A151002215 Full-year subscription: set Big spenders from China their eyes on Prague after devouring Paris CZK 650 and as a gift feature pages 12–13 ve lost Nothlo eu e ro for vouchers with a value of CZK 1,110 Photo: Reuters Klára Donathová Photos: Stanislav Pecháček Dachser Czech Republic’s division of air and sea freight services invited customers, commercial partners, and colleagues from within the rest of the company to visit its freshly reconstructed depot facilities at Prague’s Václav Havel Airport. Guests were presented with a guided tour, enabling them to view the operations of the airport, including those normally off-limits to the public. The event was thematically dedicated to Vietnam; as such, participants were also able to try to make Vietnamese spring rolls Citizens of the Czech Republic find the idea of using a single European ng currency about as appeali as that of accepting boatloads of African and Middle Eastern refugees Miroslav Zámečník T he Czech Republic pledged to switch over to the euro twelve years ago when it joined the is still European Union. Yet thereor monot a single political party any real vement willing to invest the political capital in promoting currency. adoption of the single Miloš That leaves only President devoid Zeman, constitutio nally on this of actual responsibi lity early as matter, to speak up for as possible. adoption of the euro alone in However, he is strikingly The rest this particular endeavour. the of the nation seems to consider currency idea of using the single about in its everyday shopping accepting as appealing as that of and Middle boatloads of African refugees. Eastern not only The euro was launched project, as a politically ambitious one. but also as a highly prestigiousmeet to Applicants are required some achispecific criteria (which accounting eved by rather creative and to and a host of other tricks) rate of maintain a stable exchange miniwith the domestic currency years. mal fluctuations for two Continues on page 8 all-day voucher for wellness and fitness club Volcano Complex valid for 2 persons until 3 August 2015 You can also subscribe online at our website http://www.mf.cz/produkty/ To subscribe on a toll-free number, call 800 248 248 Simply call to provide your personal details and cite the code WEEK 0615 This subscription offer is valid until 28 June 2015 5.6.2015 11:07:20 01-08-09 E15W 74.indd 1 This offer is valid for new subscribers only and will remain in place while stocks last. The subscriber acknowledges that a subscription with a gift or a discount cannot be terminated for one year from the subscription date. 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For more information and to read the general delivery conditions visit www.mf.cz 16 Photo: Reuters diversions picture of the week Boat out of water Austrian sculptor Erwin Wurm wanted to find a way to spruce up Belgium’s well-travelled waterways. His crooked sailing ship, officially titled “Misconceivable” (2010), is now permanently housed in the grounds of the Middelheim Museum in Antwerp invitations gastronomy event opera exhibition Legendy motoring festival A taste of the world Art Safari at Studio Bubec Smetana’s Litomyšl Opera Festival Roger Hiorns at Rudolfinum Gallery 750 automobiles, 350 motorcycles, foreign and Czech motorsport stars, exhibitions rides, veterans’ events, art and photography exhibits, and a rich programme of accompanying events. All this can be seen and experienced at the second annual Legendy motoring festival, held June 12-14 at the Prague-Bohnice psychiatric hospital park. Dobřichovice Castle, south of Prague, is hosting the All the Tastes of the World food festival on June 13. Visitors can taste African, Iranian and Moroccan ingredients; Indian cuisine; Argentinean meats; Swiss Raclette, or snail specialities. The musical accompaniment is also of an international flavour. Art Safari is an exhibition of contemporary visual artworks, featuring a rich accompanying programme, as well as great food. The event runs June 13-14, and is held at Studio Bubec in Prague - Řeporyje. Also included is a children’s workshop, film screenings, a nature walk, concert and a theatre performance. The Smetana’s Litomyšl International Opera Festival runs from June 11 to July 5. Among the most highly anticipated events at this year’s 57th annual event is a Czech premiere vocal performance of “The Passion of the Christ Symphony” by composer John Debney from the 2004 film starring Mel Gibson. Roger Hiorns (born 1975, Birmingham) is of the most promising young artists of his generation. His new installation “Beings” is a representation of roughly 200 mutants created from various plastic components taken from automobiles. The figures levitate in groups and exude ominous streams of foam. Photos: archive automobiles
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