1. No category

VOLUME 2, 2014
ISSN 1314-9784
SCIENCE
EDUCATION
INNOVATION
ASSOCIATION SCIENTIFIC AND
APPLIED RESEARCH
International Journal
The journal publishes scientific information and articles which present new
and unpublished results from research in the spheres of the mathematical,
physical, chemical, natural, humanitarian, social, medical, Earth, forest and
agricultural sciences.
Every article is to be read by two independent anonymous reviewers. After
their acceptance and after the author presents a bank statement for the paid
publishing fee, the article is published in the refereed..
The papers in this Volume of the Journal Scientific and Applied Research are
supported by the Project BG051Po00l-3.3.06-0003 “Building and steady
developing of PhD students, post-PhD and young scientists in the areas of
the natural, technical and mathematical sciences” (2012-2015)
Editor – in - Chief:
Acad. Prof. DSc. Zhivko Zekov – Bulgaria
Vice – Editor- in- Chief:
Acad. Prof. DSc. Mykhailo Khvesyk – Ukraine
International Editorial Board:
Acad. Prof. DSc Genadiy Maklakov – Ukraine
Assoc. Member Prof. Dr. Stoyan Velkoski – Macedonia
Prof. DSc Viktor Mukhin – Russia
Prof. DSc Olga Prokopenko - Ukraine
Prof. DSc Rumen Kodjeykov – Bulgaria
Prof. DSc Borislav Bedzhev – Bulgaria
Prof. Dr. Stefan Zhelev – Bulgaria
Prof. Dr. Margarita Filipova – Bulgaria
Prof. Dr. Julia Khvesyk - Ukraine
Prof. Dr. Stiliyan Stoyanov – Bulgaria
Prof. Dr. Alen Sarkisyan - France
Prof. Dr. Hristo Krachunov – Bulgaria
Dr. Stoyan Sargoychev – Canada
Assist. Prof. Petar Boyanov – Bulgaria
Editor - Dr. Anton Antonov – Bulgaria
© Association Scientific and Applied Research
© Konstantin Preslavsky University Press
ISSN 1314-9784
[email protected]
http://www.associationsar.com/
CONTENTS
Technical Sciences
OPTIC APPLIANCES DESIGNED FOR OBSERVATION ON THE BOARD OF
SPACESHIPS
Zhivko Zhekov ..........................................................................................................................................................5
METHODS FOR DETERMINING THE AMOUNT OF MULTI-ELECTRONIC
SCINTILLATIONS ON THE SCREEN OF ELECTRO – OPTIC TRANSFORMER OF
IMAGES
Zhivko Zhekov ........................................................................................................................................................11
A SHORT SURVEY OF P-ARY PSEUDO-RANDOM SEQUENCES
Zhaneta Tasheva ......................................................................................................................................................17
COMPARATIVE SIMULATING ANALYSIS OF TIMESTAMP ORDERING AND
TWO-VERSION TWO PHASE LOCKING IN DISTRIBUTED DATABASES
Svetlana Vasileva, Aleksandar Milev .....................................................................................................................27
ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT THE SECURITY VULNERABILITY
COMMUNICATION PROCESSES IN A GIVEN COMPUTER NETWORK
IN
Petar Boyanov .........................................................................................................................................................39
USING HTTP FILTER TO ANALYZE AND MONITOR THE VULNERABILITY
AND SECURITY STATES IN DETERMINED COMPUTER NETWORK
Petar Boyanov .........................................................................................................................................................45
Ecology
SOME PROBLEMS OF OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT OF ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
Oliynyk Viktor ........................................................................................................................................................52
RESEARCH OF THE VARIATIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC OZONE AND
CHANGE OF THE ULTRAVIOLET SUN RADIATION OVER NORTHEASTERN
BULGARIA
Stiliyan Stoyanov, Margarita Filipova ...................................................................................................................58
SATELLITE ECOLOGICAL MONITORING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
Stiliyan Stoyanov, Margarita Filipova ..................................................................................................................63
MODELS OF MAXIMUM CONCENTRATIONS OF NITROGEN DIOXIDE AND
NITROGEN MONOXIDE IN THE AIR ALONG THE BULGARIAN BANK OF THE
DANUBE RIVER
Маriana Todorova, Lyubomir Vladimirov, Еlitsa Babanova .................................................................................73
Association Scientific and Applied Research
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Physics
INTERDISCIPLINARY LECTURES ON POLYMER MATERIAL SCIENCE IN THE
EDUCATIONAL SUBJECTS
Valentin Velev, Anton Popov, Nikola Todorov ...................................................................................................103
WAXS STUDIES OF THE STRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT IN POLY (ETHYLENE
TEREPHTHALATE) FIBERS CAUSED BY PROTON BEAM IRRADIATION
Valentin Velev, Anton Popov, Nina Arhangelova, Pencho Kyurkchiev, Hristo Hristov, Paolo Sartori, Michele
Bello, Nikolay Uzunov ..........................................................................................................................................108
SPIN-ORBIT INTERACTION IN AQUEOUS AND ALCOHOLIC SOLUTIONS
OF FeCl3.6H2O
Petya Petkova, Petko Vasilev, Mustafa Mustafa, Veselin Nedkov, Jordanka Tacheva .......................................114
QUANTUM MODEL OF COBALT COMPLEXES
Petya Petkova, Maria Dimitrova, Petko Vasilev and Mustafa Mustafa ..............................................................121
Pedagogical Sciences
COMPONENTS OF THE DELPHI PROCESS THEORETICAL AND RESEARCH
STUDIES
Sonia Ilieva ...........................................................................................................................................................128
INCREASING STUDENT COMPETENCES THROUGH PARTICIPATION IN
PROJECT ACTIVITIES
Sonya Ilieva ...........................................................................................................................................................146
National Security
CLIMATE CHANGE AS A FACTOR OF SECURITY
Donika Dimanova .................................................................................................................................................152
STATISTICAL MODEL OF INCIDENCE OF FIRES IN BULGARIA
Donika Dimanova .................................................................................................................................................161
DEVELOPMENT OF WARFARE AND COUNTER-TERRORISM
Kalin Krastev, Hristo Hristov ...............................................................................................................................169
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
JOURNAL SCIENCE EDUCATION INNOVATION , VOL. 2. 2014
Association Scientific and Applied Research
International Journal
Original Contribution
ISSN 1314-9784
OPTIC APPLIANCES DESIGNED FOR OBSERVATION ON THE
BOARD OF SPACESHIPS
Zhivko Zhekov
KONSTANTIN PRESLAVSKY UNIVERSITY OF SHUMEN
E-mail: [email protected]
ABSTRACT: The criteria for the efficiency definition of visir optic appliances for
observation on the boards of spaceships are related to: the eye characteristics – the pupil
diameter in dependence of the background brightness, the visual sharpness and the utmost
contrast; the photometric characteristics of the observed object and the background – their
brightness and contrast; the optic characteristics of the visir optic appliance – magnification,
vision field, entrance pupil diameter, light permeability, etc.
Because the above mentioned class of appliances for cosmic research is used to
observe distant objects, when evaluating their efficiency, it is important to render an account
of the atmospheric conditions. The visual distance of the distant objects depends on the
photometric characteristics, on the object size and its shape.
The presented in this research criteria for efficiency of the visir optic appliances used
for observation on the boards of spaceships and also the coefficient which counts for the
atmospheric influence allow evaluating the object visibility in the conditions of a natural
landscape.
KEY WORDS: appliances designed, optic.
Taking into consideration the above mentioned conditions and to define
the efficiency, it is necessary to define the possibility of observation of distant
objects with a high resolution. The efficiency of the observation by means of a
visir optic appliance is denoted by E and it can be defined by the correlation
(1)
E
 0 (l )
,
 (l )
where  0 (l ) is the utmost resolution of an observation with the naked eye of an
object which is at the distance l ;
 (l ) is the utmost resolution of an observation of the same object by means of a
visir optic appliance.
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Such method is especially useful to evaluate visir optic appliances with a
constant magnification, with a discreet variable magnification and a smooth
variable magnification [1…9] because it is possible to choose optimal
parameters depending on the requirements and the specific functions of the optic
visirs. For example “Visir pricel 15K” (fig. 1) is designed to direct the specterzonal appliance “Specter–15” for distant Earth research from the board of
Orbital scientific stations. “Visir B 3x40” (fig. 2) is designed to direct
Electrophotometric appliance “Duga” for research in the sphere of
Fig. 1. Visir pricel 15K
the cosmic physics – registration of polar lights and stable auroral red arcs and
Pancratic visir (fig. 3) is designed to direct Impulse photometric appliance
“Terma” for discovery of distant objects and registration of fast processes by
means of a high space and time resolution.
Fig. 2. Visir B 3x40
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
The calculation of the utmost resolution  0 (l ) is made in the following
sequience. The angle  0 (l ) can be defined by known correlations of the eyesight
acuteness from the brightness and contrast of the object and background. For
this purpose, it is necessary to calculate the visible contrast K
Fig. 3. Pancratic visir
of the object which is situated at a different distance l [5]:
(2)
K
B  BH 
B  BH 
B0  BH
 l
1 BH
,
 l  l
where B, B0, BH is brightness of the background, of the object and of the sky;
l is the distance between the object and the background;
 is the atmospheric permeability coefficient.
In most of the cases the object is situated right in front of the background,
i.e. l  0 . Then,
(3)
K
K0
,
BH  1

1
  1
B  l

where K 0 is a real contrast between the object and the background.
The photometric characteristics of the object and the background are
BH
,
B
K 0  1 . The atmospheric permeability coefficient  is accepted as 0,85; 0,75 and
0,65 [ ].
To define the utmost resolution when taking into consideration the values
of the visible contrast, experimental data from researched objects are used and
they allow finding the dependency of the angle  from the contrast K at different
background brightness, i.e.
  f (k ) ,
(4)
B  B1, B2,...
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By means of the correlation (4), the angle  can be found which
corresponds to the visible contrast about a different distance of the observed
objects and a scale is drawn of the utmost resolution when observing with the
naked eye:   f (b ) (B  const ) , which can be seen on fig. 4 and the background
brightness is B  420 cd/m2.
The calculation of the utmost resolution  (B ) is made in the following
sequence. When observing through a visir optic appliance, the contrast and
visibility decreases. The decrease of the contrast is explained by the light
diffusion in the appliance and the decrease of the contrast is explained by the
losses in the optic parts and the restricted outlet pupil diameter, especially if the
outlet pupil diameter d  is smaller than the human pupil diameter d . At
background brightness (B  50...100 cd/m2) and the influence of the light
diffusion upon the resolution is very minor and it can be ignored in the
researched problem. The visual brightness of the image B  attains special
influence.
B 0

(5) B    d  2
d  d
d  d ,
B
 0  
 d 
where  0 is a coefficient of light diffusion of the visir.
The scales 1, 2 and 3 from fig. 4 are drawn from the gathered results and
they refer to a pancreatic visir with a smooth variable magnification (fig. 3).
Fig. 4. Utmost Resolution  0 and   depending on the distance to the objects;
BH  3000 cd/m2, B  300 cd/m2, K 0  1 ; 1,3,5 – observation with the naked eye
(at angle  0 );  respectively equals 0,85; 0,75 and 0,65; 2,4,6 – observation
through a pancreatic visir; 7 - observation with the naked eye (at angle
 0 ,   0,85 ), calculated by formula (3)
The diameter of the human pupil d  3,00 mm at B  300 cd/m2.07=210
cd/m2, and at B  300 cd/m2.0,55=165 cd/m2, d=3,1 mm.
The correlations at the lowest visible resolution of the image
B  110 cd/m2 at visir magnification 20 times are presented by the numbers 2,4
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
and 6 on fig. 4. The angle   is made without rendering an account of a possible
change of the image quality at change in the magnification. It is obvious the
utmost resolution in the medium of the object  
presented by the formula:
(6)
E


. The efficiency E has to be
 0 (l )
,
 (l )
where  (l ) is the utmost resolution in the image medium of the visir telescope
system when observing an object at a distance l .
It is necessary to count the atmosphere influence by means of the
coefficient A and by comparison of the utmost resolution without rendering an
account of the atmosphere influence and with rendering the atmosphere
influence, i.e.
(7)
A
 (l )
 (l  0)
.
When the weather is cloudy and there is air turbulence, the coefficient
which counts the atmosphere influence A (which is defined by experimental
data) shows a double increase in comparison with the values in a homogeneous
atmosphere.
The following conclusions can be made on the basis of theoretical and
experimental results:
1. The theoretical value of the utmost resolution   is 7 % higher than the
experimental in a comparatively homogeneous medium and when the
observation is made by means of a pancreatic visir with a 20 times
magnification.
2. At high heterogeneity and atmosphere turbulence which appears in sunny
days during the summer, the experimental values of the utmost resolution are
influenced by the magnification of the visir telescopic system.
3.
The coefficient of atmospheric influence A at homogeneous
atmosphere and great meteorological distance of visibility, calculated by
theoretical and experimental data, basically coincide.
4.
The criteria for efficiency of the visir optic appliances used for
observation on the boards of spaceships and also the coefficient which counts
for the atmospheric influence allow evaluating the object visibility in the
conditions of a natural landscape.
References:
[1]. Getzov, P., Zh. Zhekov, G. Mardirossian, I. Hristov, Efficiency of visir
optic systems at different background brightness. Scientific symposium
Military University Shumen, 1997, part II, p. 234-249.
[2]. Kodzheykov, R, S. Stoyanov A. Manev, D. Chervenkov, M. Philipova,
Atmospheric Pollution from the Industry, Sixth Scientific Conference with
Association Scientific and Applied Research
9
[3].
[4].
[5].
[6].
[7].
[8].
[9].
10
International Participation SPACE, ECOLOGY, SAFETY, 2-4 November
2010, Sofia (под печат)
Mardirossian G., S. Stoyanov. Spectrophotometer for Research of the
Atmospheric Ozone, сп. Aerospace Research in Bulgaria, Vol. 23, Sofia,
p. 79-83
Filipova M., S. Stoyanov, Influence of the Atmospheric Characteristics on
Spacecraft Flight, International Conference Geoalb 2011, Mitrovica,
Republic of Kosovo, ISBN 978-9951-612-00-5, p. 353-355
Zhekov, Zh., Doctor’s dissertation “Design, calculation and construction of
optic and electric optic appliances for scientific research in the field of
cosmic physics” Unitary Center for Earth Sciences – BAS, Sofia, 1988,
158 p.
Zhekov, Zh., Optic visir B 3x40, Scientific session Military University
Shumen, 1982, p. 42-47.
Zhekov, Zh., A. Alexandrov. Hinge visir with discreet variable scale of the
image. Scientific symposium “Kosmos-85”, Varna, 1985, p. 343-346.
Zhekov, Zh., A. Alexandrov. Optic visirs for discovery of objects at
different background brightness.
PNMS “Scientific and applied
aspects of the cosmic research”, Shumen, Lodged in the Central Technical
Library with number ND 2899/88.
Zhekov, Zh., I. Kirchev. Patent № 59921 of IIR “Sight with smooth
variable m agnification”.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
JOURNAL SCIENCE EDUCATION INNOVATION , VOL. 2. 2014
Association Scientific and Applied Research
International Journal
Original Contribution
ISSN 1314-9784
METHODS FOR DETERMINING THE AMOUNT OF MULTIELECTRONIC SCINTILLATIONS ON THE SCREEN OF ELECTRO –
OPTIC TRANSFORMER OF IMAGES
Zhivko Zhekov
KONSTANTIN PRESLAVSKY UNIVERSITY OF SHUMEN
E-mail: [email protected]
ABSTRACT: One of the basic requirements when using electro – optical transformer
(EOT) of images in space research [1, 2, 5, 7, 8] is the low level of bright light flashes on the
screen, called multi – electronic scintillations. The existence of multi – electronic
scintillations leads to significant expansion of the possibility for diminishing the utmost
sensitivity of the EOT [4, 6, 9, and 10]. The definition of the amount of scintillations per
definite time could be done with the help of the method for scintillations’ calculation while
using photo – electronic multiplier [3]. If the number of scintillations’ distribution over the
active surface of the screen is determined and experimentally are evaluated the distribution
parameters for a certain EOT, it is a matter of simpler methods required for the scintillation
evaluation without the need for development of complex scanning devices. The current
research is about evaluating the law of scintillations’ amount distribution over the active
surface of the screen, evaluation of their amplitude spectrum and development of method for
defining the amount of multi – electronic scintillations over the active surface of the EOT’s
screen.
KEY WORDS: multi-electronic scintillations
METHOD FOR DEFINING THE DISTRIBUTION OF
SCINTILLATIONS NUMBER OVER THE ACTIVE SURFACE OF THE
EOT.
A certain device [3] is used in order to define the distribution of the
scintillations number over the screen. The measurement of scintillations is made
as in [3], from the surface o the EOT’s screen, with the help of mobile
diaphragm, 2 mm in diameter, and optic system for transferring the image to the
photo – electronic multiplier. The light source secures monochromatic
adjustable infrared radiation, hitting the photo cathode of the EOT. The method
for measurement is based on evaluation of average amplitude of scintillations,
invoked by single electrons, hitting the EOT’s photo cathode, the amplitude
distribution of scintillations and their integral number. The measurements are
Association Scientific and Applied Research
11
taken in dark, in light, on background 10-7 cd/m2, in adjustable shine of EOT’s
photo cathode by the light source. А consecutive account is being taken after
every diaphragm’s movement on every 2 mm from the center across the EOT’s
screen radius toward the periphery. The received experimental data serves for
setting up a dependency between scintillations’ amplitude spectrum and their
integral number across the screen’s diameter. The measurements show that the
distribution is asymmetric, which allows simplification of the method and
evaluation of the scintillations’ distribution only in dependence with the screen’s
radius.
MEASUREMENT – RESULTS AND ANALYSIS
Figure 1 shows experimental data for the distribution number of dark
scintillations on the EOT’s screen with background brightness 10-7 cd/m2.
Scintillations amount,
Relative units
Nc
1,0
3
0,5
1
0
2
4
6
2
8
10 r
Screen radius, mm
Figure 1. Distribution of dark scintillations number
across the EOT’s screen radius:
1 – when  = 2,5; 2 – when  = 4 and 3 – when  = 10.
Figure 2 shows the distribution of background scintillations across the
EOT’s screen radius with background brightness 10-4 cd/m2.
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
Scintillations number
Relative units
Nc
1,0
0,5
1
0
2
4
6
8
Screen radius, mm
2
10 r
Figure 2. Distribution of background scintillations number
across the EOT’s screen radius: 1 – when  = 2,3 and 2 – when  = 4.
The experimental data is compared to a normal distribution law. The
values of mean quadratic aberration  are shown in the figures. The values
show, that the scintillations are concentrated mainly in the center of the screen.
As it is observed in the figures, the comparison of experimental data with
normal distribution law shows good coordination. It could be considered that the
possibility for appearance of scintillations across the EOT’s screen diameter is
similar to the normal distribution law (Figure 1, Figure 2), describable with the
formulae:
y
1
2
e

r2
2 2
,
(1)
where: r – EOT’s screen radius.
The definition of scintillations’ number over the active surface of the
EOT’s screen could be done in the following sequence. By following that
method could be defined the scintillations’ number N c across the co-ordinate rn .
The mean quadratic aberration  in normal distribution could be defined by the
formulae:

rn
.
1,18
(2)
Having in mind the values of  and N c , we could define the scintillations
number N for the entire active surface of the screen:
Association Scientific and Applied Research
13
N  Nc
where: V c -
(3)
V
,
Vc
the volume of a body, restricted by the surface in rotation of the
curve y2  f (r ) across the analyzed surface of the screen S,
definable by Vc  S .y 2 , where y 2 
V
-
1
2
;
the volume of a body, restricted by the surface in rotation of the
curve y1  f (r ) across the working surface of the screen:
(4)
y2
V  S    r 2 dy ,
y1
y1 
1
2
e

rk2
2 2
;
rk - radius of the screen working surface.
The value of r 2 could be defined by the equation (1):
1


r 2   ln
 ln y 2 2 .
2


(5)
By replacing equation (5) in equation (4), after integration we get:
V  2 2 ( y 2  y1 )(ln y 2  1)  y 2 ln y 2  y1 ln y1   Sy1 .
(6)
Scintillations number
Relative units
Nc
1,0
0,5
0
1
2
3

50
40
30
20
10
Screen scintillations amplitude, mV
Figure 3. Amplitude distribution of dark scintillations: 1 – measured in
the center of EOT’s screen; 2 – measured at distance of 3 mm from the center of
the screen; 3 – measured at distance of 7 mm from the center of the EOT’
screen.
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Scintillations number
Relative units
Nc
1,0
0,05
0
1
2
3
50
40
30
20
10

Screen scintillations amplitude, mV
Figure 4. Amplitude distribution of background scintillations: 1 –
measured in the center of EOT’s screen; 2 – measured at distance of 3 mm from
the center of the screen; 3 – measured at distance of 7 mm from the center of the
EOT’ screen.
The definition of the scintillations number across the working surface of
the EOT’s screen is made with the help of measurement of scintillations number
in circular areas of the screen and calculation of their whole number with the
suggested method for approximation of scintillations number distribution across
the screen surface with a normal distribution law. Figure 3 and figure 4 show
amplitude distributions of scintillations, measured in the center (scheme 1) and
in distance of 3 mm (scheme 2), 7 mm (scheme 3) and 10 mm (scheme 4) from
the center with background brightness – full darkness - 10-7 cd/m2, created in
front of the EOT’s photo cathode, and at background brightness 10-4 cd/m2.
Variations in amplitude distribution are observed. A significant
contribution to the amplitude distribution in the screen center brings the
scintillations with greater amplitude.
CONCLUSION
The experimental research of number and brightness of scintillations
show that the distribution of the multi – electronic scintillations’ number across
the screen’s diameter could be approximated by a normal law. This allows the
application of the suggested method for measuring of scintillations number
across the active surface of the EOT’s screen.
The analysis of multi – electronic scintillations amplitude spectrum
shows, that in the center of the EOT’s screen, the number of scintillations with
greater amplitude is significantly greater in comparison with those at the end of
the active surface of the screen.
These multi – electronic scintillations could invoke the registration of non
– existing signal, because of which along with the enumeration of multi –
Association Scientific and Applied Research
15
electronic scintillations number across the active surface of the screen is
necessary to be made measurement and accounting of the amplitude spectrum of
scintillations across the EOT’s screen.
REFERENCES:
[1]. Gecov P. S. Kosmos, ekologiia, sigurnost. Nov bylgarski universitet,
Sofiia, 2002, 211 s.
[2]. Gecov P. S. Nauchno - tehnicheska programa na vtoriia bylgaro - ruski
kosmicheski polet proekt "Shipka" - osnovni celi, zadachi i rezultati.
Sbornik dokladi "10 godini kosmicheski proekt "Shipka", Institut za
kosmicheski izslevaniia - BAN, Sofiia, 1999, str. 15 - 22.
[3]. Zhekov J. S. Aparatura i metodika za obektivna ocenka na harakteristikite
na elektronno - optichni preobrazuvateli. Vtora nacionalna konferenciia po
optika i lazerna tehnika. "Optika 84", Varna, 1984 g.
[4]. Iliev I. C. Spektrometrichna sistema za slynchevi i atmosferni izsledvaniia.
Sp. "Elektronika i elektrotehnika"_N3-4, 2000, str. 43 - 47.
[5]. Mardirosian G. H. Aerokosmicheski metodi v ekologiiata i prouchvaneto
na okolnata sreda. Chast_I. Akademichno izdatelstvo "Marin Drinov",
Sofiia, 2003, str. 201.
[6]. Petrov P., Iordanov D., Lukarski Hr., Matrapov I., Fotev Sv.
Spektrometrichna sistema za prilojeniiata v oblastta na monitoring na
zamyrsiavaneto na prirodnata sreda. Sbornik dokladi "30 godini
organizirani kosmicheski izsledvaniia v Bylgaiia" IKI - BAN, Sofiia, 2000,
str. 150 - 154.
[7]. Stoianov S. J., Mardirosian G. H. Analiz na syshtestvuvashti metodi i
sredstva za izsledvane obshtoto sydyrjanie na atmosferen ozon i negovoto
vertikalno razpredelenie. Godishnik na Tehnicheski Universitet,
Varna,_ISSN 1311-896H, 2001, str. 910 - 915.Hodgson R. M., Beurle R. L.
Image intensifier noise and its effects on visual pattern detection. Photo –
electronic image devices. Proc. of 16-th symposium 1994. London, 1996.
p. 687.
[8]. Pollehn H. K. Noise in second generation image intensifier tubes.
Proceedings of the technical programe. Electro – optical systems design
conference, New York, 002, p. 234.
[9]. Sanders A. A. Modulation Transfer Function Measurements for Infrared
Systems. The George Washington University, Washington DC, 2000.
[10]. Tatian B. Method for obtaining the transfer function from the edge
response function, JOSA, 41, 811 – 819, 1995.
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JOURNAL SCIENCE EDUCATION INNOVATION , VOL. 2. 2014
Association Scientific and Applied Research
International Journal
Original Contribution
ISSN 1314-9784
A SHORT SURVEY OF P-ARY PSEUDO-RANDOM SEQUENCES
Zhaneta Tasheva
FACULTY OF TECHNICAL SCIENCES, KONSTANTIN PRESLAVSKY UNIVERSITY OF
SHUMEN; FACULTY OF ARTILLERY, AAD AND CIS, NATIONAL MILITARY
UNIVERSITY, BULGARIA, E-MAIL: [email protected]
ABSTRACT: One of the most important problems in the sequence design is to find
sequences with good correlation properties. Recently, expect for the binary Pseudo-Random
Sequences (PRSs), much progress has been obtained for ternary and p-ary PRSs. In this
paper a short survey of p-ary PRSs and their properties is made. As a result their
classification is suggested without claiming its full completeness.
KEY WORDS: pseudo-random sequences, pseudo-noise sequences, p-ary PRSs, binary
PRSs, Security.
1. Introduction
Nowadays, Pseudo-Random Sequences (PRSs) are widely used in many
applications such as computer simulation and modeling, statistics, experimental
design, digital communications, cryptography and random number generation.
They are also important in areas such as signal synchronization, navigation,
radar ranging, spread-spectrum commu-nications, multipath resolution and
signal identification in multiple-access communication systems.
Pseudo-Random Sequences, also known as Pseudo-Noise Sequences
(PNSs), are sequences that are deterministically generated, but yet possess the
properties of randomly generated sequences.
PRSs have been widely used in communications and cryptography, since
the creation of information theory in 1948 by Claude Shannon. The interest
towards PRSs is determined by its good correlation and balance properties, and
its large linear complexity.
For example, in commu-nications, good autocorrelation properties are of
importance for reliable initial synchronization and components’ separation in
multipath environment. In Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) systems, to
suppress multiuser interference the low cross-correlation between the desired
and interfering users is required.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
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The actuality of the security problem in communication and information
networks and systems derives from the importance of the requirements for
obtaining reliable and accurate information about the sent message, its sender
and recipient in terms of communications with the possibility of eavesdropping
and intentional noises, organized by criminal and terrorist groups.
In cryptography, the sequences with low cross-correlation can be used as
key stream generators in stream ciphers to resist correlation attacks. In this case,
the linear complexity is very important, in order to prevent the reconstruction of
the sequence of a small part of it using Berlekamp-Massey algorithm [2], [14].
Recently, expect for the binary PRSs of period T = 2n – 1, much progress
has been obtained for ternary and p-ary PRSs. Increased interest in them is
determined by their close relationship to trace function and difference sets. For
recent
work
on
p-ary PRSs with good correlation properties the reader can refer to [1], [3], [813], and [16-19].
Therefore, we try to classify the currently known p-ary PRSs in this paper.
First, a brief overview of binary sequences is made. Then the currently known pary pseudo-random sequences and their properties are described.
2. Binary Pseudo Random Sequences
The best-known family of PRSs is binary m-sequences which satisfy
balance, run-distribution and autocorrelation properties like truly random
sequences. These properties make them most used in communications and
cryptographic systems.
Scientific research studies of binary PRSs can be conditionally divided into
three main periods.
I. Period prior to their practical application
Before 1948 the pseudo-random sequences have been studied only
theoretical because of their elegant mathematical structure. They have been
examined as linear repetitive sequences defined over a ring around 1930 and as
a combinatorial problem in 1894, later known as sequences of De Bruijn.
II. Golden age of the sequences with maximum period
In 1945 Shannon proved the theoretical significance of the one-time pad
keystream system as unbreakable. If the pseudo-random generator operates as a
key stream generator in a cryptographic system and the period of the generated
sequence is long enough to ensure that will be used a variety of separate
segments of the generated sequence for encryption at any time. So, in the early
50s of the last century critical issue was how to generate pseudo-random
sequence with a large period. The decision till 1969 were Linear Feedback Shift
Registers (LFSRs), which were used as pseudo-random generators in stream
ciphers because LFSR of length n can generate a sequence of maximum length
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
T = 2n - 1. The majority of the early studies of the LFSR and Bruijn sequences
are collected and aggregated in the popular book “Shift Register Sequences” of
professor Golomb [5]. LFSR registers have been used in many applications such
as stream ciphers, radar systems and CDMA communications.
III. Period of nonlinear pseudo-random generators
In 1969 Massey makes an extraordinary discovery that if a binary sequence
has linear complexity n, then the whole sequence can be reconstructed from its
2n consecutive bits by the Berlekamp-Massey algorithm. Since that time,
scientific researchers are looking for new methods of generating non-linear
sequences. Researchers refer to basic methods to generate nonlinear sequences
[6]:
1. Structures based on LFSR registers:
 Filter generators;
 Combinatorial generators;
 Clock controlled generators, including cascaded cases.
2. Generators in finite fields:
 GMW (Gordon, Mills and Welch) sequences, including cascaded
cases;
 Bent function sequences.
Good reviews of PRSs and their properties can be found in the works of
Helleseth and Kumar [8], Golomb [4], and Golomb and Gong [3].
Helleseth and Kumar classify PRSs (see Fig. 1) according to the used type
of correlation function between two sequences:
 autocorrelation function if the two sequences are the same;
 crosscorrelation if they are distinct;
 periodic correlation if the shift is a cyclic shift;
 aperiodic correlation if the shift is not cyclic;
 partial-period correlation if the inner product of correlation involves
only a partial segment of the two sequences.
In the last twenty years, researchers are directed to investigate the
pseudorandom sequence generators in finite fields GF(pn), where p is an odd
prime.
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Sequences with Low Correlation
Partial Period
Correlation
Periodic
Correlation
Autocorrelation
Binary
m-sequences
Mean Square
Correlation
Crosscorrelation
Aperiodic
Correlation
Autocorrelation
q-ary
Binary
Quaternary
Gold
Kasami
Kerdock
Barker
sequences
Hamming
Correlation
Crosscorrelation
Merit
factor
Optical
Orthogonal
Codes
Fig. 1. Overview of PRSs [8].
This may be the beginning of a new period in the study of PRSs, which we call
p-ary pseudo-random sequences.
3. p-ary Pseudo Random Sequences
The p-ary case of PRSs, where p is an odd prime, has been studied by
researchers from the thirties of the last century. The p-ary m-sequences and the
Gordon, Mills and Welch (GMW) sequences are two well-known families of
perfect p-ary sequences of length pm − 1 which have been investigated for
several decades. In this section a briefly review of the known p-ary Pseudo
Random Sequences and their properties is done.
In addition to them, the other types of p-ary PRSs like ternary perfect and
almost perfect sequences, non-binary sequences with ideal two-level
autocorrelation, non-binary Kasami sequences, p-ary pseudo-noise sequences
with low correlation zone are also known.
3.1. p-ary m-sequences
Let  be a primitive element of the finite field GF(2 n). A binary sequence
s(t) of period 2n – 1 with ideal autocorrelation is equivalent to a cyclic
difference set with Singer parameters (2n – 1, 2n - 1 – 1, 2n - 2 – 1) [17] where a
difference set is defined as
D = {t : s(i) = 0, 0  t < 2n – 1}.
Singer also have proved that difference set with parameters
(pm – 1, pm - 1 – 1, pm - 2 – 1),
where m  2 and p is an odd prime,
forms a p-ary perfect sequence.
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
3.2. p-ary GMW Sequences
The GMW-sequences have been proposed by Gordon, Mills and Welch in
their original work named Some new difference sets [7] in 1962. Sholtz and
Welch have published a method for generating one class of GMW sequences in
terms of trace function in his correspondence [15] after nearly twenty year of
silence. In his work have been also analyzed the ideal autocorrelation properties,
the linear span and balance properties of GMW sequences, and after that a
pseudonoise (PN) generator design have been described.
The p-ary GMW sequence are based on the decomposition of the field
GF(pM). There are four types of GMW-sequences, as described by Golomb and
Gong [3]:
 GMW-sequences;
 cascaded GMW-sequences;
 generalized GMW-sequences (type 3);
 generalized GMW-sequences (type 4).
The elements of a p-ary GMW sequence are the complex p-th roots of
unity. The phase of a p-ary GMW sequence is given by
a(n) = tr1J(trJM(dn)r),
where  is a primitive element of the finite field GF(pM). The trace function
from GF(pM) to GF(pJ) and from GF(pJ) to GF(p) is denoted by trJM and tr1J,
respectively. The parameters d and r must satisfy the following conditions:
0 < d < pM – 1 and gcd(pM – 1, d) = 1,
0 < r < p J – 1 and gcd(p J – 1, r) = 1.
The least period of the sequence is N = pM – 1, i.e., a(n + N) = a(n).
3.3. Ternary Perfect and Almost Perfect Sequences
Almost Perfect Ternary (APT) sequences of length 2(qk – 1)/(q – 1), where
q = pm and (2k, q – 1) = 2 have been proposed by Langevin (Langevinsequences) in 1993 [12].
Later, APT sequences of length 2(qk – 1)/(q – 1) for all k >1 have been
constructed by Schotten and Lüke (SL-sequences) [16].
In 1998, Lin have proposed a perfect sequence (Lin-sequences) given by
the trace function
{Tr(t + dt | t = 1, 2, …, 32m+1 – 1},
where d = 2.3m + 1 and  is a primitive element of GF(32m+1).
Later, in 2001, Helleseth, Kumar and Martinsen (HKM-sequences) have
proved that the sequence
{Tr(t + dt | t = 1, 2, …, 33k – 1}
is perfect, when d = 32k – 3k + 1 and  is a primitive element of GF(33k).
New families of APT sequences of length N = (p n – 1)/r, where r is an
integer, and odd-perfect ternary sequences of length N/2, derived from the
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decomposition of m-sequences of length p n – 1 over GF(p), n = km, with p being
an odd prime, into an array have been presented by Krengel (Krengelsequences) in 2005 [11].
3.4. Non-Binary Sequences with Ideal Two-Level Autocorrelation
New families of non-binary sequences of period pn – 1 with symbols from a
finite field GF(p) for any prime p  3 have been proposed by Tor Helleseth and
Guang Gong (HG-sequences) in 2002 [9]. The sequences have two-level ideal
autocorrelation and they are generalizations of ternary sequences with ideal
autocorrelation proposed by Helleseth, Kumar, and Martinsen [10]. The authors
have proved two theorems in which they have found two functions of the form
m
2i
f ( x)   ui x ( q 1) / 2
and
i 0
m
f ( x)   um i x (q
2i 1
1) /(q 1)
i 0
where n/k = 2m + 1 is odd, q = pn, and  is a primitive element of Galois Field
GF(pn).
The non-binary sequence {s(t)} over GF(p) given by
s(t) = Trn(f(t))
has a two-level ideal autocorrelation function. Some of these non-binary
sequences are shown in table 1.
3.5. Non-Binary Kasami Sequences
Liu and J. Komo have shown that nonbinary Kasami sequences over GF(p)
can be obtained as an extension of binary Kasami sequences [13]. They have
proved that the correlation values of a nonbinary Kasami set have p + 2 levels
with
maximum
nontrivial
correlation
of
m
1 + p . The authors have also developed the frequency of occurrence of the
correlation levels for the nonbinary and binary Kasami sequences.
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
Table 1. Non-Binary Sequences with Ideal Two-Level Autocorrelation [10]
p
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
5
5
5
5
5
7
7
n
5
5
7
7
7
9
9
9
5
5
7
7
7
5
5
m
2
2
3
3
3
4
4
4
2
2
3
3
3
2
2
s0 s0 … sm
212
221
2122
2212
2221
21122
22121
21221
314
341
3144
3414
3441
416
461
The set of nonbinary Kasami sequences over GF(p), p is prime, is defined
as [13]:
S={si(t) | 0  t  N – 1, l  i  pm},
where
si(t) = tr1m{trm n(at) + iTt},
n = 2m, N = pm – 1, T = pm + 1,  is a primitive element of GF(pm), and i takes
on each value of GF(pm) for l  i  pm.
In this set of nonbinary Kasami sequences over GF(p), similar to the binary
case, one si(t) is an m-sequence with period N and each other si(t) is a sum of an
m-sequence with period N and a different phase of an
m-sequence with shorter period M = pm – 1. The shorter m-sequence is a
decimation
T
of
the
longer
m-sequence.
3.6. p-ary Pseudo-Noise Sequences with Low Correlation Zone
Tang and Fan have constructed a new class of pseudo-noise sequences over
GF(p) (TF-sequences) [18], based on GMW sequences in 2001. These
sequences have such property that the out-of-phase autocorrelation and crosscorrelation values are all equal to -1 in special low correlation zone (LCZ). Such
sequences with LCZ are suitable for approximately synchronized CDMA
system.
The p-ary pseudo-noise sequences with LCZ are constructed from two pary GMW sequences a and b. Then the p-ary sequence set is obtained
Association Scientific and Applied Research
23
m
A  { A, A  S T b,..., A  S ( p  2)T ,
m
S ( p 1)T }
where Si denotes left shift operator, Sib denotes i-shift version of sequence b, and
T
pn  1
m
,
p 1
where GF(p ) is a subfield of GF(p ) which are used to define the p-ary GMW
sequences.
Some of p-ary pseudo-noise sequences with LCZ are shown in table 2 and
their autocorrelation functions are presented in table 3.
As
a
result
of
short
survey
of
p-ary PRSs described above, the following classification of p-ary sequences
with low periodic correlation can be made (fig. 2).
m
n
Table 2. LCZ sequences of length N = 80, size M = 3, and LCZ L = 9 [18].
x =a
y =a-S20b
z =a-S60b
1000100210111200220102211010121221201222
2000200120222100110201122020212112102111
1112202221200010011012210012020112202021
2221101112100020022021120021010221101012
1221001202022120102222212011222000200120
2112002101011210201111121022111000100210
Table 3. Autocorrelation functions of the LCZ sequences [18].
Rx, x
Ry, y
Rz, z
24
80 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
80 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 26 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
-28 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -28 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 26 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
80 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 26 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
-28 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -28 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 26 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
Association Scientific and Applied Research
p-ary Sequences with
Low Periodic Correlation
Any Prime p
p3
Autocorrelation
Crosscorrelation
p-ary
m-sequences
Non-Binary Kasami
Sequences
p-ary GMW
sequences
TF-sequences
HG- sequences
Ternary
p =3
Autocorrelation
Perfect
Crosscorrelation
Almost Perfect
Lin-sequences
Langevin-sequences
HKM-sequences
SL-sequences
Krengel-sequences
Krengel-sequences
Fig. 2. Overview of p-ary PRSs.
4. Conclusion and Future Work
A classification of p-ary PRSs sequences is made without claiming its full
completeness. Mainly the PRSs with low periodic correlation are divided into
two branches depending on the used prime p – ternary sequences for p = 3 and
sequences for any prime p  3. PRSs can be divided into separate branches
depending on their autocorrelation and crosscorrelation. A historical overview of
the binary and p-ary sequences with good correlation is made. That short survey
of currently known p-ary PRSs includes their main properties and fields of
application.
Acknowledgements
This paper is supported by the Project BG051PO00l-3.3.06-0003 “Building
and steady development of PhD students, post-PhD and young scientists in the
areas of the natural, technical and mathematical sciences”. The Project is
realized by the financial support of the Operative Program “Development of the
human resources” of the European social found of the European Union.
References:
[1] Bedzhev, B. Y., Yordanov, S. S. Method for synthesis of large families of
signals with low correlation. Journal Scientific & Applied Research, Vol. 2,
2012, pp. 13-20.
[2] Berlekamp, E. R. Algebraic Coding Theory. New York: McGraw-Hill,
1968.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
25
[3] Golomb S.W., Guang Gong. Signal Design for Good Correlation for
Wireless Communication, Cryptography, and Radar. Cambridge University
Press, 2005, p. 438.
[4] Golomb, S. W. On the classification of cyclic Hadamard sequences.”
IEICE Transactions on Fundamentals of Electronics, Commu-nications
and Computer Sciences 89, No. 9, 2006. pp. 2247-2253.
[5] Golomb, S. W., L. R. Welch, R. M. Goldstein, and A. W. Hales. Shift
register sequences. Vol. 78. Laguna Hills, CA: Aegean Park Press, 1982.
[6] Gong, G. “Sequence analysis.” Lecture Notes for CO739x, University of
Waterloo, 1999. ps. 137.
[7] Gordon B., Mills W.H., Welch L.R. Some new difference sets// Canadian J.
Math., 1962, V. 14, pp. 614-625.
[8] Helleseth, T., and Kumar, P. V. Chapter 8. Pseudonoise sequences. The
Mobile Communications Handbook, Second Edition, CRC Press, 2002.
[9] Helleseth, Tor, and Guang Gong. “New nonbinary sequences with ideal
two-level autocorrelation.” IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 48,
No. 11, 2002, pp. 2868-2872.
[10] Helleseth, Tor, P. Vijay Kumar, and Halvard Martinsen. “A new family of
ternary sequences with ideal two-level autocorrelation function.” Designs,
Codes and Cryptography 23, No. 2, 2001, pp. 157-166.
[11] Krengel, E. I. “Almost-Perfect and Odd-Perfect Ternary Sequences”
Sequences and Their Applications - SETA 2004, Lecture Notes in
Computer Science Volume 3486, 2005, pp. 197-207.
[12] Langevin, P.“Some sequences with good autocorrelation properties.” Finite
Fields: Theory, Applications, and Algorithms 168, 1993, pp.213-216.
[13] Liu, S. C. and Komo, J. “Nonbinary Kasami sequences over GF(p),” IEEE
Transactions on Information Theory, vol. 38, pp. 1409–1412, July 1992.
[14] Massey, J. L. “Shift-register synthesis and BCH decoding,” IEEE
Transactions on Information Theory, Vol. IT-15, 1969, pp. 122–127.
[15] Scholtz, U. A., Welch, L. R. “GMW sequences,” IEEE Transactions on
Information Theory, vol. IT-30, 1984, pp. 548-553.
[16] Schotten, H. D., and H. D. Lüke. “New perfect and w-cyclic-perfect
sequences.” In Proc. 1996 IEEE International Symposium on Information
Theory, Vol. 12. 1996.
[17] Singer, J. “A theorem in finite projective geometry and some applications
to number theory.” Transactions of the American Mathematical Society 43,
No. 3, 1938, pp. 377-385.
[18] Tang, X. H., and Pingzhi Z. F. “A class of pseudonoise sequences over
GF(p) with low correlation zone.”, IEEE Transactions on Information
Theory 47, No. 4, 2001, pp. 1644-1649.
[19] Tsankov, T., Trifonov, T., and Staneva, L. An algorithm for synthesis of
phase manipulated signals with high structural complexity. Journal
[20] Scientific & Applied Research, Vol. 4, 2013, pp. 80-87
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JOURNAL SCIENCE EDUCATION INNOVATION , VOL. 2. 2014
Association Scientific and Applied Research
International Journal
Original Contribution
ISSN 1314-9784
COMPARATIVE SIMULATING ANALYSIS OF TIMESTAMP
ORDERING AND TWO-VERSION TWO PHASE LOCKING IN
DISTRIBUTED DATABASES
Svetlana Vasileva, Aleksandar Milev
SHUMEN UNIVERSITY ”BISHOP KONSTANTIN PRESLAVSKI”, COLLEGE-DOBRICH,
DOBRICH 9302, DOBROTICA 12,
E-MAIL: [email protected]
SHUMEN UNIVERSITY ”BISHOP KONSTANTIN PRESLAVSKI”, SHUMEN, 9712,
FACULTY OF MATHEMATICS AND INFORMATICS. UNIVERSITETSKA STR., 115,
E-MAIL: [email protected]
ABSTRACT: This paper presents simulation models of two well known methods for
concurrency control of transactions in distributed database systems. The paper considers an
approach for modelling management of the transactions parallelism by the two-version twophase locking (2V2PL) in its three modifications: Centralized 2V2PL, Primary copy 2V2PL
and Distributed 2V2PL. The main point of research is timestamp ordering in Distributed
Database Management Systems (DDBMS). The paper offers timestamp ordering (TO) service
of the transactions. In order to avoid the deadlock problem we offer 2V2PL and timestamp
ordering (TO) service of the transactions. The results from executing modelling algorithms by
means of the simulations GPSS World environment are shown.
KEY WORDS: Distributed Databases, Distributed Transactions, Concurrency Control,
Timestamp Ordering, Deadlocks, Two-Version Two-Phase Locking.
The distributed database (DDB) is a distributed system, which is an
aggregation of logically connected local databases, geographically distributed and
unified by a computer network. Some of the most important functions of the
systems for distributed database management are: synchronization of the
application processes that operate in the distributed system and supply of the fault
tolerance of the system. The application processes in the DDB system have to be
managed in such a way so that the system remains whole even after emergency.
There are several methods for concurrency control in order to provide wholeness of
the information, such as two-phase locking (2PL), timestamp ordering (TO) and
optimistic strategies (validation check up) [1], [2] and others. According to a
number of authors the best of the three methods with respect to the response time
Association Scientific and Applied Research
27
index in high workload in DDB system is the two-phase locking (2PL) protocol in
its variants: Centralized 2PL, Primary copy 2PL and Distributed 2PL. The
concurrency control by the pessimistic protocols has one main problem – the
possibility of the transactions to be involved in the deadlocks. Some results of
deadlock avoiding by using version of data architecture in DDB are given in [4].
The comparison analysis of algorithms for Ordering Network and Distributed 2PL
in the case of full data replication is given in [6].
The using of multi-version architecture arise problems with version storage
because the volume of old versions could become higher than the volume of the
current database and due to this fact it could be difficult to store these old data.
Multi-version protocols have been developed and a limitation of version number
is implemented there due to this reason. A similar two-version 2PL (2V2PL)
protocol is suggested and it is proved that deadlocks are impossible in 2V2PL
client/server database systems [3]. The problems of 2V2PL application have been
existed there needed to be investigated. This paper presents algorithms modelling
the 2V2PL protocols in distributed databases – central protocol, primary copy
2V2PL and distributed protocol and the simulation results (summarized by
throughput and frequency distribution of response time) are compared with the
results from the simulation of timestamp ordering under the same initial
conditions.
Basic Elements of the GPSS Simulation Models
The simulations of Centralized 2V2PL, Primary copy 2V2PL, Distributed
2V2PL and Distributed Timestamp algorithms are developed by using the GPSS
World environment.
Six flows of GPSS transactions are generated in 2V2PL and TO DDBMS
models. The modelling algorithms and the running schemes of distributed
transaction for 2V2PL and TO protocols in DDBMS are described in details in
[5] and [8]. Every GPSS transaction represents global transaction in DDB and
every flow is characterized by intensity . The generated transactions in the
models process 2 or 1 data elements. The probability for longer transaction is
higher than the probability of transaction processed 1 element. Every data
element has two replicas. Distribution of replicas of data elements is defined by
the function DistrS1 – DistrS4.
Some parameters of GPSS model transactions in DDBMS are used:
P1 - Number of the generating transactions. The value is a sum of System
Numeric Attribute MP2 and the number of the site;
P2 - Number of the site, where the transaction is generated. The value is a number
from 1 to <number stream transactions>;
P$el1 / P$el2 - Number of the first / second processed data element by the
transaction (El1) / (El2). The value is a random number and is uniformly
distributed in the interval [1, NumEl];
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
P$bl1 / P$bl2 - Type of the operation over the element El1/El2: 1 (r) – if read; 2
(w) – if write; In 2V2PL models the value is 4 – certified lock, if second
(uncommitted) version of El1/El2 has been created by the transaction;
P5 - Phase of the transactions processing. The possible values are from 0 to 3;
P$prim1/ P$prim2 - In Primary copy 2V2PL model - number of the primary site
of the first/second element, which the generated transaction will be read or write;
P6 / P7 - Number of the site where the first/second copy of the first data element
El1 is stored;
Transmission over the channels is simulated by delays with blocks
ADVANCE which are defined by the matrix RAZST and RAZDEV.
Description of Simulation Models of Two-Version 2PL in DDBMS
Fig.1 represents a structural scheme of the simulating algorithm of
execution of global (distributed) transaction TP2P1 by Centralized 2V2PL,
initiated from site SP2 and refreshing the data elements El1 having copies in
local databases LDBР6 and LDBP7 and element El2 with copies in local databases
LDBР8 and LDBP9 located in corresponding sites respectively SР6 and SР7, and
SР8 and SР9. The Primary copy 2V2PL model execution is similar. In that case
the requests for data elements locks are sent not only to the central lock manager
LM0, but to corresponding primary lock managers LMprim1 and LMprim2 also. The
requests for locking of the data elements wait for the release of the lock manager
(LM) in the queue before it QLM. They queue firstly according to a priority and
secondly according to the order of getting there, thirdly according to the number
of the site – generator. The Centralized 2V2PL model is described in [5].
The basic steps in the Centralized 2V2PL and Primary Copy 2V2PL
algorithms are as given in fig.1 and fig.2.
Transaction coordinator TCP2 splits global transaction TP1P2 in two subtransactions. These sub-transactions are directed at lock manager LM0 to get the
proper locks for the elements El1 and El2.
After given and granted locks, the transaction TP1Pel1 splits in two subtransaction. If the transaction TP1Pel1 is required to read only the element El1 then
it doesn’t split in two separate sub-transactions. Sub-transactions are directed to
the corresponding data managers. After that they are transmitted in the network
to data managers If they have to be committed in a remote node.
Many operations read/write are committed in the sites-executors, where the
corresponding data managers are included.
If the sites-executors don’t match to the site – initiator of TP1P2 after the
sub-transactions have finished their actions in sites SP6, SP7 and SP8, SP9, they are
transmitted over the communication network to the transaction manager.
Transaction manager of TP1P2 sends messages, which consists of requests
for releasing the elements El1 and El2 to the correspondent lock manager, when
it receives messages for ends of sub-transactions.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
29
Fig. 1 Simulation model of execution of global transaction by
centralized 2V2PL protocol
After fixing the results from sub-transaction processing in sites the
transactions are sent through the communication network to the transaction
manager.
Transaction manager of TP1P2 sends messages to the centralized lock
manager when it gets the messages for the end of the sub-transactions. These
messages contain requests to request a release for locks of the elements El1 and
El2 .
Transaction TP1P2 quits the system as soon as sub-transactions TP1Pel1 and
TP1Pel2 finish their process.
When distributed 2V2PL is taken into consideration the requests for
element locking x are sent straight to the sites-executors, in which local
databases copies of x are stored. Local lock managers, which are responsible for
locking the copy of element x are situated in the sites-executors.
Fig. 2 represents a structural scheme of the simulating algorithm of
execution of global (distributed) transaction TP2P1 by Distributed 2V2PL,
initiated from site SP2. The difference is that requests for data copy locks are sent
to SР6 and SР7, and SР8 and SР9, because the lock managers and the lock tables are
in the site – executors.
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
Fig. 2 Simulation model of execution of global transaction by
distributed 2V2PL protocol
Simulating Timestamp Ordering Method in Distributed Databases
The Timestamp ordering protocol is described in [1] and by other authors.
The algorithm uses Tomas rules. According to this algorithm:
- To each transaction T is assigned timestamp, denoting the time of its coming
into the system and the number of the site-generator. When a transaction
read/write data element, it records its timestamp (TS) in it;
- If a transaction T wants to update data element x:
If TS(T) < readTS(x), then restart(T);
If TS(T) < writeTS(x), then ignore(T);
If TS(T) > writeTS(x), then execute(T);
- If a transaction wants to read data element x:
If TS(T) < writeTS(x), then restart (T);
If TS(T) > writeTS(x), then execute(T).
The structural scheme of a modelling algorithm for distributed transactions
management in timestamp ordering algorithm in DDB is shown in fig. 3.
The basic steps in the synthesized DTO modelling algorithm are given in
[8].
Association Scientific and Applied Research
31
The operations when T is not taken of consideration are not shown because
they are modelled as execution without anything being recorded in the local
databases.
The results are received for long period of monitoring time for about 28800
model units and summary intensity of incoming transactions flows  = 100 tr/s.
Comparative Analysis of Simulation Results
The frequency distribution of response time (RT) is given on fig. 4, fig. 5,
fig. 6 and fig. 7.
Fig. 3 Simulation model of execution of global transaction by
distributed TO protocol
The graphics are generated by GPSS World according to the tables of
frequency distribution, which is constructed automatically for every relevant
simulation. The number of GPSS transactions is given on axis Y vs. the relevant
process time for the proper interval on axis X. They are represented by four
histograms. Time intervals on axis X have length 200ms.
The comparison of the graphs for frequency distribution of response time for
centralized 2V2PL and Primary copy 2V2PL given in fig. 4 and fig. 5 with the
template one of [7, p.74] show that the average RT (0.826 s and 0.688 s) and the
32
Association Scientific and Applied Research
standard deviation (0.350 s and 0.308 s) are very good results. Moreover, the
histograms are completely fitted in the axis X for the interval [0, 0,900].
According to the standard specification the upper limit of that interval should be
90% from the time response. So with 10% wrongness, it should be claimed the
response time RT pertains to the specification considering its values for long
monitoring time.
The histogram for frequency distribution of RT for distributed 2V2PL is
given on fig. 6. It has almost full congruence with the standard specification. The
histogram is symmetric to the line passing through the maximum and is parallel to
the axis Y. Moreover the histogram is fitted in the axis X for the interval [0,
90%RT]. The diagram in fig. 7 corresponds to the stereotyped graphic of response
time, shown in [7, p.74]. The trust-worthiness of the results of modeling of tree
types 2V2PL algorithms is confirmed from other simulation research for simple
transactions has being processed one data element. Other authors’ researches
made for 2PL one-version architecture of data in DDBMS [6] confirm that as
well.
It is obvious that the average response time is the greatest one for
centralized 2V2PL. The RT for primary copy 2V2PL is smaller and the smallest
one response time is for distributed 2V2PL.
Fig. 4 Frequency distribution of transaction RT in centralized 2V2PL model.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
33
Fig. 5 Frequency distribution of transaction RT in Primary copy 2V2PL model.
Fig. 6 Frequency distribution of transaction RT in distributed 2V2PL model.
Fig. 7 Frequency distribution of transaction RT in DTO model
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
The summary comparative results of throughput (TP) are given on fig. 8,
fig. 9 and fig. 10.
The results are obtained for different intensities of input flow and load
transactions (min, average and max). The analysis of fig. 8, fig. 9 and fig. 10
shows that system’s throughput is too close when the same system load is used
for the two approaches – 2V2PL and Timestamp ordering in DDB.
Throughput
Low intensity
80
tr/s
Centr2V2PL
70
Prcop2V2PL
60
Dis tr2V2PL
50
TSO
40
30
20
10
0
0
4
5
7
14
29
300
600
1200
Tn (s )
Fig. 8 TP for 2V2PL and DTO for min load
Differences can be seen for the four protocols only under maximal load of
the system. The comparative analysis shows that the max load in static mode is
very different. As could be seen the max load TP for distributed 2V2PL is
reached before 3600 model units.
Throughput
Average intensity (50 tr/sec)
tr/s
80
70
60
50
40
Centr2V2PL
30
Prcop2V2PL
20
Distr2V2PL
10
TSO
0
0
4
5
7
14
29
300
600
1200
Tn (s)
Fig. 9 TP for 2V2PL and DTO for average load
Association Scientific and Applied Research
35
For primary copy 2V2PL it is before 14400 model units, whereas the max
load TP is after 300000 model units for centralized 2V2PL. The comparative
analysis of the results for two-version 2PL algorithms and DTO algorithm
shows that the throughput has higher value in Distributed 2V2PL and is lower in
distributed TO model. Moreover, system shows more stable growth and
behavior for 2V2PL protocols then for distributed timestamp ordering.
Throughput
High intensity (100 tr/sec)
tr/s
110
100
90
80
70
Centr2V2PL
60
Prcop2V2PL
50
Distr2V2PL
40
TSO
30
20
10
0
4
5
7
14
29
300
Tn (s)
600
1200
Fig. 10 TP for 2V2PL and DTO for max load
The comparative analysis of the results for two-version 2PL algorithms and
DTO algorithm shows that the response time is lower for 2V2PL than similar
one in distributed TO.
Service probability
High intensity (100 tr/sec)
Ps
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Centr2V2PL
Prcop2V2PL
Distr2V2PL
TSO
0
4
5
7
14
29
300
600
1200
Tn (s)
Fig. 11 Probability service of the models
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
The comparative analysis of the results of modeling the tree algorithms,
centralized 2V2PL, primary copy 2V2PL and distributed 2V2PL, shows the
fastest reaching of max values of TP for distributed 2V2PL and the smallest
average RT. These facts make distributed 2V2PL protocol much effective and
with the highest performance for DDBMS. This can be seen at fig.11 and it
proves our analysis and researches.
Conclusions and Future Work
A program code for GPSS World is developed which can be used to model
the processing of distributed transactions in time-stamping protocol and in
2V2PL protocols in DDB.
The use of the mechanisms for transactions division and submission of
certain values and their parameters makes the receiving of results from the
execution of transactions in systems with distributed databases possible.
The created simulation models describe the real processes with a sufficient
accuracy and allow receiving a reliable estimate for the changes of the
throughput capability of the system in given parameters of the incoming
transaction streams. The models are limited for the number of input flows and
length of processed transactions because of the limitation of other similar
models compared to them.
The conducted simulations and the results confirm the functionality of the
modeling algorithms.
It is necessary to develop simulation models of concurrency control
algorithms with much complexity by the meaning of the number of element
replicas and transaction length in number of elements.
[1].
[2].
[3].
[4].
[5].
REFERENCES
Connolly, T.M., Begg, C.E. Database systems. Addison-Wesley, 2002.
Date, C.J.: Introduction to Database Systems. MA: Addison-Wesley,
2000.
Kuo T., Y. Kao, C. Kuo. Two-Version-Based Concurrency Control and
Recovery in Real-Time Client/Server Databases. 2006,
http://rtlab.cs.nthu.edu.tw/course/cs5425TA/2006Spring
/reading%20list/Two-Version-Based%20Concurrency%20Control%20
and%20Recovery%20in%20RealTime%20Client%20Server%20Database.pdf
Majumdar, D. A Quick Survey of MultiVersion Concurrency Algorithms.
Journal of Information Science and Engineering 19, November 4, 2007,
http://simpledm.googlecode.com/files/mvcc-survey-1.0.pdf.
Milev, A., S. Vasileva. Modeling of Two-version Algorithms for TwoPhase Locking in Distributed Databases. International Conference
Association Scientific and Applied Research
37
[6].
[7].
[8].
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Automatics and Informatics’09, 3 – 4 October 2009, Sofia, Bulgaria, pp.
II-13 – II-16.
Srinivasa, R., C. Williams, P. Reynolds. Distributed Transaction
Processing on an Ordering Network. Technical Report CS-2001-08.
February
2001,
p.
20,
http://citeseer.ist.psu.edu/cache/papers/cs/26119/ftp:zSzzSzftp.cs.virginia.
eduzSzpubzSztechreportszSzCS-2001-08.pdf/srinivasa01distributed.pdf
TPC – C Benchmark. http://www. tpc.org/tpcc/spec/tpcc_current.pdf.
(2007)
Vasileva, S. Algorithm for Simulating Timestamp Ordering in Distributed
Databases. VI International Conference on Information Systems and
GRID Technologies, 1-3 June 2012, University of Sofia “St. Kliment
Ohridski” and Bulgarian Chapter of the Association for Information
Systems (BulAIS), Sofia, 2012, pp. 352-364.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
JOURNAL SCIENCE EDUCATION INNOVATION , VOL. 2. 2014
Association Scientific and Applied Research
International Journal
Original Contribution
ISSN 1314-9784
ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT THE SECURITY VULNERABILITY IN
COMMUNICATION PROCESSES IN A GIVEN COMPUTER
NETWORK
Petar Kr. Boyanov
DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNICATION AND COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY, FACULTY OF
TECHNICAL SCIENCES, KONSTANTIN PRESLAVSKY UNIVERSITY OF SHUMEN,
SHUMEN 9712, 115, UNIVERSITETSKA STR, E-MAIL: [email protected]
ABSTRACT: The analysis and assessment the security vulnerability communication
processes is very important and obligatory on each network and computer system
administrator and cyber-professionals. In this paper, a detailed listening of the UDP
endpoints and TCP connections is made.
KEY WORDS: Computer and network security, Cyber-attacks, Databases, Port,
Processes, TCP, UDP, Vulnerability, Windows 7.
1. Introduction
The analysis and assessment the security vulnerability communication
processes is very important and obligatory on each network and computer
system administrator and cyber-professionals. In this paper, a detailed listening
of the UDP endpoints and TCP connections is made. In the practice, some
software platforms give common information about all processes and network
connections and thanks to the achieved results, many computer and network
professionals are able to detect and analyze the malicious vulnerabilities in the
selected operating system. This paper is structured as follows. First, in section 2,
a related work for the different assessments of communication and computer
processes is made. After that, in section 3, an implementation of windows
software program for detailed listening of TCP and UDP connection is
performed
[1],[2],[3],[4],[5],[6],[7],[8],[13].
The
conclusions
and
recommendations are made in section 4.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
39
2. Related work
In [5] analysis of TCP processing by David Clark is presented. In [4]
some protocols for packet network intercommunication in the selected operating
system by Vinton Cerf and Robert Icahn is made. In [7] a comprehensive and
illustrated guide for TCP/IP and Internet protocols by Charles Kozierok is
presented. In [1] vulnerability analysis for evaluating quality of protection of
security policies by Muhammad Abedin, Syeda Nessa, Ehab Al-Shaer, and
Latifur Khan is made.
3. Analysis and assessment of the running communication processes
In fact, some computer and network programs give detailed information
about the communication processes in determined operating system. In this
paper the Windows program TCPView is tested. This software by Mark
Russinovich and Bryce Cogswell is made [13]. Thanks to this software program
each plain user and system administrator is able to obtain detailed listening
information about all TCP and UDP endpoints and connections, including the
process id, type of transport protocol, local address, local port, remote address,
the current network state, sent packets, sent Bytes and other information is
shown and presented [6],[13]. A common view of the started program in shown
on fig.1.
Fig.1. Common view of the started software
The process PRTG Probe.exe on fig.2 is presented.
40
Association Scientific and Applied Research
Fig.2. Common view of the started software
Each user is able to close established TCP/IP connection. This operation
could be made by right clicking on the determined connection and then the user
must choose “Close Connection” from the resulting context menu. This is shown
on fig.3.
Fig.3. Closing the selected connection
Other function of this program is to obtain detailed information about
registered domain. In this case, the domain “abv.bg” [8],[9],[10],[12] with http
protocol is tested. This is shown on fig.4.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
41
Fig.4. Obtaining information about the domain “abv.bg”
In order to analyze and assess all of the running processes, there is an
option that allows the output window to be saved as a “.txt” file [13]. After that
this information could be used for making detailed reference of the entire
operating system [3],[5],[7],[11],[13]. This is shown on fig.5.
Fig.5. The saved text file “network.txt”
42
Association Scientific and Applied Research
Thanks to this program each plain user, system administrator and cyberprofessionals is able to obtain detailed information about the running processes
in the determined operating system and thereby to know which of them
vulnerability for the current operating system is. This research on the operating
system Windows 7 Enterprise 32-bit is made [1],[2],[4],[6],[12].
4. Conclusion
Each security professional and specialist must always observe and detect
the vulnerabilities, flaws, weaknesses, exploits and other specific software that
can cause a total compromise of the selected operating system integrity and total
shutdown of the affected confidential resources. Therefore, the attackers or
cyber-criminals are able to obtain all computer and network resource completely
unavailable forever. Therefore, it is important the flaws and suspicious processes
terminated in host computer system and therefore the risk of cyber-attack could
be reduced.
Acknowledgements
This paper is supported by the Project BG051PO00l-3.3.06-0003
“Building and steady development of PhD students, post-PhD and young
scientists in the areas of the natural, technical and mathematical sciences”. The
Project is realized by the financial support of the Operative Program “Development of the human resources” of the European social found of the
European Union.
[1]
[2]
[3]
[4]
[5]
REFERENCES:
Abedin, Muhammad, Syeda Nessa, Ehab Al-Shaer, and Latifur Khan.
"Vulnerability analysis for evaluating quality of protection of security
policies." In Proceedings of the 2nd ACM workshop on Quality of
protection, pp. 49-52. ACM, 2006.
ADELMAN, Kenneth Allen, et al. Method and apparatus for a TCP/IP load
balancing and failover process in an internet protocol (IP) network
clustering system. U.S. Patent No 6,078,957, 2000.
BAKRE, Ajay; BADRINATH, B. R. I-TCP: Indirect TCP for mobile hosts.
In: Distributed Computing Systems, 1995., Proceedings of the 15th
International Conference on. IEEE, 1995. p. 136-143.
CERF, Vinton G.; ICAHN, Robert E. A protocol for packet network
intercommunication. ACM SIGCOMM Computer Communication Review,
2005, 35.2: 71-82.
CLARK D. D., An analysis of TCP processing overhead. Communications
Magazine, IEEE, 1989, 27.6: 23-29.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
43
[6] Hristov Hr., "A passive strategy for management of counteraction to
encroachments on business organization, a refereed Journal Scientific and
Applied Research (Licensed in EBSCO, USA), ISSN 1314-6289, Vol.6,
2014, pp. 187-194
[7] KOZIEROK, Charles M. The TCP/IP guide: a comprehensive, illustrated
Internet protocols reference. No Starch Press, 2005.
[8] MARKATOS, Evangelos P. Speeding up TCP/IP: Faster processors are not
enough. In: Performance, Computing, and Communications Conference,
2002. 21st IEEE International. IEEE, 2002. p. 341-345.
[9] MOGUL, Jeffrey; RASHID, Richard; ACCETTA, Michael. The packer
filter: an efficient mechanism for user-level network code. ACM, 1987.
[10] PAPADOPOULOS, Christos; PARULKAR, Guru M. Experimental
evaluation of SUNOS IPC and TCP/IP protocol implementation.
Networking, IEEE/ACM Transactions on, 1993, 1.2: 199-216.
[11] .RIZZO, Luigi. Effective erasure codes for reliable computer
communication protocols. ACM SIGCOMM computer communication
review, 1997, 27.2: 24-36.
[12] STALLINGS, William; STALLINGS, William. Data and computer
communications. New Jersey: Prentice hall, 1997.
[13] http://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/sysinternals
44
Association Scientific and Applied Research
JOURNAL SCIENCE EDUCATION INNOVATION , VOL. 2. 2014
Association Scientific and Applied Research
International Journal
Original Contribution
ISSN 1314-9784
USING HTTP FILTER TO ANALYZE AND MONITOR THE
VULNERABILITY AND SECURITY STATES IN DETERMINED
COMPUTER NETWORK
Petar Boyanov
KONSTANTIN PRESLAVSKY UNIVERSITY OF SHUMEN, SHUMEN 9712,
115, UNIVERSITETSKA STR,
E-MAIL: [email protected]
ABSTRACT: In this paper, an advanced content analyzing and monitoring using http
filter is made. Most of the vulnerabilities with e-mail messages, Web content pages,
downloaded and upload files, instant messages and voice conversations are connected.
Therefore, it is recommended each network administrator, cyber-professionals, system
administrator and plain user to analyze, monitor and capture different set of data that with
the http protocol is concerned.
KEY WORDS: Analyzing, Computer and network security, Cyber-attacks, Http,
Databases, Port, Processes, Security, Vulnerability, Web, Windows 7.
1. Introduction
In this paper, an advanced content analyzing and monitoring using http
filter is made. Most of the vulnerabilities with e-mail messages, Web content
pages, downloaded and upload files, instant messages and voice conversations
are connected [16]. Therefore, it is recommend each network administrator,
cyber-professionals, system administrator and plain user to analyze, monitor and
capture different set of data that with the http protocol is concerned [15]. The
computer networks are vulnerable and weak to unauthorized access and attacks
that could cause some hardware and software damages to determined host
victim [1],[2],[3],[4],[5],[6],[7],[8],[9],[13]. This paper is structured as follows.
First, in section 2, different special methods for measurement and analysis of
http traffic are made. After that, in section 3, a http filter for analyzing and
monitoring the active connections in the LAN (192.168.1.0/24 is performed
[15]. The achieved results are presented in section 4, the conclusions and
recommendations are made in section 5.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
45
2. Related work
In [13] a queueing model for HTTP traffic over IEEE 802.11 WLANs by
Daniele Miorandi, Arzad Kherani, Eitan Altman is performed. In [4] a special
method for measurement and analysis of http traffic by Yogesh Bhole, Adrian
Popescu is made. In [8] measuring normality in HTTP traffic for anomaly-based
intrusion detection by Juan Estévez-Tapiador, Pedro Garcia-Teodoro, Jesús
Diaz-Verdejo is achieved. In [7] analysis of TCP processing by David Clark is
presented. In [6] some protocols for packet network intercommunication in the
selected operating system by Vinton Cerf and Robert Icahn is made. In [10] a
comprehensive and illustrated guide for TCP/IP and Internet protocols by
Charles Kozierok is presented. In [1] vulnerability analysis for evaluating
quality of protection of security policies by Muhammad Abedin, Syeda Nessa,
Ehab Al-Shaer, and Latifur Khan is made.
3. Experiment
The experiment in specialized university computer lab is made. The
network ID of this local area network (LAN) is 192.168.1.0/24. The used
software program is NetResident version 2.1 (Build 592) and it is in Pro mode
state. Initially was necessary to be configured the software product. This
program has used TCP port #4201 in order to communicate with NetResident
service [7],[8]. Other important thing is the program must get permission to
communicate through windows firewall. The following experiments only with
education intend and purpose is made [11],[12],[13],[14]. The Microsoft
windows 7 Enterprise SP1 operating system in the scanning host has been used.
On fig.1 the interface overview of NetResident is shown [1],[6],[10].
Fig. 1. The successfully started program software
46
Association Scientific and Applied Research
The software product consists of the following special options:
 capturing the information of following social networks like Twitter,
Facebook, LinkedIn, MySpace, Google+, Xing, Tumblr,
Odnoklassniki, LiveJournal, VKontakte, StudiVZ, MeinVZ,
SchuelerVZ, and LiveInternet;
 this program has improved ICQ, HTTP, SOCKS 4 and SOCKS proxy
support;
 supporting AOL Mail, Mail.ru and Yandex.Pochta services;
 IPv6 support and implementation;
 this program has improved application performance when running on
multi-core CPU computers;
 the program software has a configurable real-time traffic filtering
options for HTTP and mail protocols;
 this program is able to capture, store, summarize, analyze, monitor
and edit the network events such as e-mail messages, Web content
pages, downloaded different type of files, instant messages and voice
conversations [1],[4],[5],[6],[7],[8],[12],[13],[15].
4. Results
The captured information of the social network facebook on fig.2 is
shown.
Fig. 2. The captured information between the host and facebook
On fig.3 has given the following information about [4],[8],[14],[15]:
 the name and IP address of party A and party B;
 the current date and last updated event;
 the application protocol – web;
 the port of party A;
Association Scientific and Applied Research
47


the port of party B;
detailed description;
Fig. 3. Event detail between party A and party B
It is important to be marked that the contents of the selected page is unavailable,
because it was transferred in encrypted form. The reason for it is the existence of
SSL [16] session.
On fig.4 a captured and stored picture is shown.
Fig. 4 Captured and stored picture
48
Association Scientific and Applied Research
It is important to be marked that the contents of the selected page (sportni.bg) is
available and thanks to the program software there could be seen the captured
and stored picture.
On fig.5 the entire event list of the performed scanning is made.
Fig. 5. The entire event list
The saved file was with extension “.csv” [3],[5],[7]. This is very useful method
for saving information needed for further processing and analysis by system and
network administrators of the determined computer network.
Thanks to the software program NetResident [9],[8],[10] each plain users,
system and network administrators, cyber-professionals and forensic experts are
able to gain detailed information [16] about the web traffic between many hosts
in determined computer network and thereby they could know which web
content page has vulnerability or insecure connection certificate
[1],[2],[4],[6],[12],[13].
4. Conclusion
Each cyber-professional, system and network specialists, IT forensic
experts have to capture, scan, observe, detect and analyze different
vulnerabilities, flaws and weaknesses in the web connections that can cause a
total compromise of the instant messages and voice conversations in host
operating system integrity and total shutdown of the affected confidential
resources. Therefore, the IT professionals and experts of the tested computer
network are able to gain most of the web content completely unavailable
forever. Therefore, it is important the flaws, suspicious processes and
connection to be terminated in the selected host computer systems and therefore
Association Scientific and Applied Research
49
the risk of future compromising of the computer and network resources of the
target hosts could be reduced.
Acknowledgements
This paper is supported by the Project BG051PO00l-3.3.06-0003
“Building and steady development of PhD students, post-PhD and young
scientists in the areas of the natural, technical and mathematical sciences”. The
Project is realized by the financial support of the Operative Program “Development of the human resources” of the European social found of the
European Union.
[1]
[2]
[3]
[4]
[5]
[6]
[7]
[8]
[9]
[10]
50
References:
Abedin, Muhammad, Syeda Nessa, Ehab Al-Shaer, and Latifur Khan.
"Vulnerability analysis for evaluating quality of protection of security
policies." In Proceedings of the 2nd ACM workshop on Quality of
protection, pp. 49-52. ACM, 2006.
ADELMAN, Kenneth Allen, et al. Method and apparatus for a TCP/IP load
balancing and failover process in an internet protocol (IP) network
clustering system. U.S. Patent No 6,078,957, 2000.
BAKRE, Ajay; BADRINATH, B. R. I-TCP: Indirect TCP for mobile hosts.
In: Distributed Computing Systems, 1995., Proceedings of the 15th
International Conference on. IEEE, 1995. p. 136-143.
BHOLE, Yogesh; POPESCU, Adrian. Measurement and analysis of http
traffic. Journal of Network and Systems Management, 2005, 13.4: 357-371.
CASILARI, Eduardo; GONZBLEZ, F. J.; SANDOVAL, Francisco.
Modeling of HTTP traffic. Communications Letters, IEEE, 2001, 5.6: 272274.
CERF, Vinton G.; ICAHN, Robert E. A protocol for packet network
intercommunication. ACM SIGCOMM Computer Communication Review,
2005, 35.2: 71-82.
CLARK D. D., An analysis of TCP processing overhead. Communications
Magazine, IEEE, 1989, 27.6: 23-29.
ESTÉVEZ-TAPIADOR, Juan M.; GARCIA-TEODORO, Pedro; DIAZVERDEJO, Jesús E., Measuring normality in HTTP traffic for anomalybased intrusion detection. Computer Networks, 2004, 45.2: 175-193.
Hristov Hr., "A passive strategy for management of counteraction to
encroachments on business organization, a refereed Journal Scientific and
Applied Research (Licensed in EBSCO, USA), ISSN 1314-6289, Vol.6,
2014, pp. 187-194
KOZIEROK, Charles M. The TCP/IP guide: a comprehensive, illustrated
Internet protocols reference. No Starch Press, 2005.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
[11] MARKATOS, Evangelos P. Speeding up TCP/IP: Faster processors are not
enough. In: Performance, Computing, and Communications Conference,
2002. 21st IEEE International. IEEE, 2002. p. 341-345.
[12] MOGUL, Jeffrey; RASHID, Richard; ACCETTA, Michael. The packer
filter: an efficient mechanism for user-level network code. ACM, 1987.
[13] MIORANDI, Daniele; KHERANI, Arzad A.; ALTMAN, Eitan. A
queueing model for HTTP traffic over IEEE 802.11 WLANs. Computer
networks, 2006, 50.1: 63-79.
[14] PAPADOPOULOS, Christos; PARULKAR, Guru M. Experimental
evaluation of SUNOS IPC and TCP/IP protocol implementation.
Networking, IEEE/ACM Transactions on, 1993, 1.2: 199-216.
[15] .RIZZO, Luigi. Effective erasure codes for reliable computer
communication protocols. ACM SIGCOMM computer communication
review, 1997, 27.2: 24-36.
[16] STALLINGS, William; STALLINGS, William. Data and computer
communications. New Jersey: Prentice hall, 1997.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
51
JOURNAL SCIENCE EDUCATION INNOVATION , VOL. 2. 2014
Association Scientific and Applied Research
International Journal
Original Contribution
ISSN 1314-9784
SOME PROBLEMS OF OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT OF ECONOMIC
SYSTEMS
Oliynyk Viktor
SUMY STATE UNIVERSITY , DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT, 2
RIMSKOGO -KORSAKOVA ST, SUMY, UKRAINE ,40007;
E-MAIL: [email protected]
ABSTRACT: The task of optimal management of economic system is examined.
Sulution of the problem comes true through the method of the Pontryagin maximum principle.
As a function of the equation of state will use the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
An optimal management of state of financial system United Kingdom from initial position to
the set end position is offered.
KEY WORDS: investment, optimal management, GDP.
JEL classification codes: C01; С53; E17; F21
Introduction
Practically any economic-financial system changes during time. For a
management of the system it is necessary to have a management function.
Changing the parameters of this function, it is possible to get motion of the
system on an optimal trajectory. One method of solving the management
problem is the method of the Pontryagin maximum principle [1,2,3,4]. As a
function of the equation of state will use the Gross Domestic Product.
In order to find out required correlations it is necessary to take into account
dependences between all parameters of the system. The process of finding the
optimal functional relationship between the variables can be found in [5,6].
Problem statement
As an example, consider the problem of optimal management with the initial
data for United Kingdom [7] on the interval [t 0 ; T ] :
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
Table 1: Initial data for calculation
t
Year
GDP (Current
Prices, US$
Billion), Y(t)
Investment (% of
GDP), 1 (t )
1
2
3
4
5
6
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2471,88
2602,49
2743,35
2890,99
3050,52
3220,42
15,584
16,411
17,358
18,18
18,913
19,601
General
government total
expenditure (% of
GDP),  2 (t )
45,861
44,48
42,793
41,26
40,072
38,704
General
government
revenue (% of
GDP),  3 (t )
37,301
37,542
37,776
37,843
37,779
37,384
Processing the data in Table 1, we find the optimal function in the form
Y  ab t . Applying the method of the least squares, we obtain the unknown
parameters: a  2342,0198 ; b  1,053276. This optimal function corresponds to the
following boundary value problem:
dY (t )
 ln bY (t ) ; Y (t 0 )  ab
dt
(1)
Equation (1) is the equation of studied system state, with the initial
condition.
Find the optimal functional dependence for  2 (t ) - general government total
expenditure (% of GDP) on the interval t  [t 0 ; T ] :
 2 (t )  47,2492  1,444057t
(2)
Thus, we obtain a mathematical formulation of the overall cost
management problem for the state
Problem A
The equation of state of the system:
dY (t )
 ln bY (t )  U (t )
dt
(3)
Initial conditions:
Y (t 0 )  ab
(4)
Management function has following form:
Association Scientific and Applied Research
53
U (t )   2 (t )abt
(5)
where  2 (t ) has the form (2).
The condition of optimality is set in form:
T
 exp( t )( (t )  
1
3
(6)
(t )   2 (t ))Y (t )dt  max
t0
where  - discount coefficient;  1 (t ),  3 (t )  0 .
Taking into account data from tables 1 we will get:
(7)
 1 (t )  0,148332 0,008118t ;  3 (t )  0,376
Problem statement.
It is necessary to find the optimal value of parameter  2 (t ) , on which
management of state of the financial system is executed. A size reflecting
financial receivabless and charges (6) is maximized.
To solve the problem we apply the Pontryagin maximum method [3].
We write the Hamiltonian function:
H (t )  (t ){ 2 (t )abt  ln bY (t )}  exp( t ){1 (t )   3 (t )   2 (t )}Y (t )
(8)
where  (t ) - auxiliary function that satisfy equation
d (t )
  (t ) ln b  exp(  t ){ 1 (t )   3 (t )   2 (t )}
dt
We will find the extremum of Hamiltonian
management :
(9)
function on the parameter of
dH
 Y (t ) exp( t )   (t )ab t
d 2
(10)
Using the condition of extremum, we will get:
 (t ) 
exp(  t )Y (t )
ab t
(11)
Using (11) and taking (3) into account we will find:
 exp(  t )Y (t )
d (t )
 exp(  t ) 2 (t ) 
dt
ab t
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
(12)
We put (11) and (12) in (9) :
Y (t )  
abt ( 1 (t )   3 (t ))
ln b  
(13)
Set:
(14)
 4 (t )  1 (t )   2 (t )
Putting (13) in equalization of the state (3), we will get a management function
in a form:
 2 (t )  
d 4 (t )
1
ln b   dt
(15)
Thus, we get a next boarding problem that corresponds to the optimal function
of management :
The equation of state of the system
  (t )
dY (t )
 ln bY (t )  4
abt
ln b  
dt
(16)
Initial conditions:
(17)
Y (t 0 )  ab
Assuming  4 (t )  const , than solution of task (16), (17) has following form :
Y (t )  abt {1   4 (t )   4 (t )t}
(18)
Numerical examples
We will enter next basic data
For founding parameter  4 (t ) we use correlations (7). Putting initial data in
(15), we will get the value of optimal managing function  2  0,1685. Thus, if
during investigated period a managing function will be equal to the got value,
then an optimization function (6) will take on a maximal value taking into
account discounting. A formula (18) allows to define the function of the system
state that corresponds to the optimal function of management.
Problem B
Statement of problem A is examined. Additionally to the terms (3) - (6) we
will add additional limitations:
1.
condition of final system in the set eventual state
Association Scientific and Applied Research
55
(19)
Y (T )  YT
2.
limit on the function of management
(20)
1   2 (t )   2
We will find the solution of equalization of the state (3) with an account (20).
Solution of equalization, satisfying correlation (4) has form :
Y (t )  abt {1  1  1t}
(21)
Y (t )  abt {1   2   2 t}
(22)
Satisfying (19), we will found solution in a form:
Y (t )  (YT  1Tab T )b (t T )  1tabt
(23)
Y (t )  (YT   2TabT )b (t T )   2 tabt
(24)
Building on a function plane set by correlations (18), (21) - (24), we will
get an optimal management of the system state from initial position (4), in
eventual (19). Thus motion has to be done on an optimal trajectory (18), but it
must not go beyond the borders of possible solutions. Depending on the initial
and eventual state, it is possible to make time switching from one trajectory to
other. Thus an optimal function (6) will reach its maximum.
Numerical examples
As basic data we will take data from data A, and also additional data in a
form Y (6)  4500; 1  0,05;  2  0,45 . On a picture 1 an optimal management of
system state from the initial state in the set eventual state is presented. The area
of acceptable values of state of investigated system is set as ABCD. The optimal
transition of the system done firn initial state (point A) on an optimal trajectory
(6) to the point E. From a transit point (point Е) to the eventual state (point С)
the system moves on trajectory(23). Switching time from one trajectory to other,
for the set initial conditions takes place at t E  2,33 .
56
Association Scientific and Applied Research
5000
C
4500
4000
D
3500
E
B
3000
2500
A
2000
1
2
2,33
3
4
5
t
Picture 1 Optimal management GDP, US$ Billion
CONCLUSION
A decision over of a few tasks of optimal management is brought through
the method of the Pontryagin maximum principle. An optimal management of
system state is offered from initial position to the set eventual position. It is
shown that an offered algorithm works and has practical application. Numeral
results of the financial indexes of United Kingdom for 2011-2016 are shown.
[1].
[2].
[3].
[4].
[5].
[6].
[7].
REFERENCES
Optimal Control in Economics: Theory and Applications: Training.
posobie.-/B.A.Logosha, T.G.Apalkova.-M.: Finance and Statistics, 2008.P.224
Arutyunov A.V. Pontryagin Maximum Principle. Proofs and applications /
A.V.Arutyunov, G.G.Magaril-Il'yaev V.M.Tihomirov.-M. Univ "Factorial
Press", 2006. - P.144
Pontryagin L.S, Boltyanskii V.G, Gamkrelidze R.V., Mishchenko E.F. The
mathematical theory of optimal processes. Nauka,1983.-P. 392
Shell K. Application of Pontryagin’s maximum principle to economics //
Mathematical system theory and economics. I.Berlin: Springer,1969.P.241292 (Leet.Notes Oper. Res. And Math.Econ.;V.11).
Oliynyk V.Construction of economic models The 1 st International
Conference on Applied Business and Economics (ICABE 2009), Faculty of
Business, Sohar Universyity, Sohar, Sultanate of Oman, 30-31
March,2009. - p.p.258-263
Lvovskiy E.N. Statistical methods for construction of empirical
formulas. Vysshaya Shkola, 1988.-P.239.
http://www.economywatch.com/economic-statistics/
Association Scientific and Applied Research
57
JOURNAL SCIENCE EDUCATION INNOVATION , VOL. 2. 2014
Association Scientific and Applied Research
International Journal
Original Contribution
ISSN 1314-9784
RESEARCH OF THE VARIATIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
OZONE AND CHANGE OF THE ULTRAVIOLET SUN
RADIATION OVER NORTHEASTERN BULGARIA
Stiliyan Stoyanov Margarita Filipova*
SPACE RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGIES INSTITUTE –
BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
*RUSE UNIVERSITY “ANGEL KANCHEV”
ABSTRACT: The atmospheric total ozone content variations over the North eastern region of Bulgaria have been observed duri ng the May-August period of
2011. The measurements are conducted above the hydro -meteorological station in
the Kaliakra peninsula using a ground-based ozonometer M-124. The experimental
data for the total ozone content distribution have undergone processing and the
mean month values have been calculated. A distribution anomaly has been observed
during the second half of July, when the trend is negative.
KEY WORDS: total ozone content
1.INTRODUCTION
The problem of the periodic variations of the total ozone content is
a question of present interest. The results of the interpretation of these
data for the northern hemisphere show decreasing of the ozone layer
with 30-50 Dobson units [1].
In 1986 a spring negative anomaly of the ozone trend has been
detected in Greece [2]. In 1987 a considerable decrease of total ozone
content was detected in the town of Belsk, Poland [2].
The anomalies of the ozone trend are similar (the coefficient of the
correlation is +0,44) in Europe: from 1982-1983 in Moscow [6]; from
1984-1985 in Southern Europe – Vina del Vale and Lisbon [4]. From
1986-1987 in Northern Europe [4]. These data are received from ground
ozonometric stations and their processing shows a negative linear trend
58
Association Scientific and Applied Research
of the total ozone content in the Northern hemisphere – 1,4% and
respectively there is a considerable variation of the average total ozone
content [5,6].
2.THE RESEARCH
The goal of the research is to study the variations of the total
ozone content in Northeastern Bulgaria for the period May – August
2011, which were measured by means of a ground ozonemeter in the
hydro meteorological station in Kaliakra.
Kaliakra station is situated at 59,12 m altitude. Its geographic
coordinates are 28°28’ eastern longitude and 43°22’ northern latitude.
Having in mind the conservative meridional stratospheric circulation at
altitude 20-22 km in northeastern Bulgaria and the comparative
remoteness of Kaliakra from big industrial contaminators, it can be
considered that the received experimental results are representative for a
larger equable zonal structure, such as Northeastern Bulgaria.
The total ozone content is being researched by 4-month results:
May, June, July and August. The data are in table 1. The days with
unfavorable weather are less than 4 per month and they are not taken
into consideration because they are within the limits of for the
determination of the total ozone content variations.
The goal of the research is to check whether the values of the total
ozone content X for the four months are commensurable and to examine
for possible variations. Since the number of the days, in which the
experimental value X is received, is different for the single months, the
Barlet criterion is used [3].
Table 1. Average values of the total ozone content X in Dobson units,
Kaliakra, 09.05. – 18.08. 2008
Month
May
June
July
August
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
340
385
236
400
331
256
490
341
297
348
384
243
375
360
242
369
181
337
220
343
199
Month
May
June
July
August
16
388
383
372
196
17
304
344
349
211
18
341
428
368
201
19
335
403
317
20
402
389
350
21
384
22
23
385
305
389
326
305
9
437
390
349
227
10
11
359
342
260
12
365
383
339
176
13
345
360
302
179
14
360
421
302
223
15
388
454
333
191
394
356
273
24
414
395
185
25
437
324
231
26
412
376
264
27
414
364
232
28
397
341
223
29
380
330
222
30
408
334
236
Association Scientific and Applied Research
31
384
246
59
The evaluations for every dispersion are calculated S12 , S 22 , S 32 , S 42
n

(1)
S12 
i
1
 X ij  X
ni  1 j 1
(2)
Xi 
1
ni
2
and the formula
ni
 X ij
j 1
is used to get the average values for the total ozone content for the
separate months:
X 1 =384 Dobson units, X 2 =375 Dobson units, X 3 =313 Dobson units,
X 4 =223 Dobson units
The dispersions are as follows:
S12  1245,94; S 22  1153,96; S 32  3060,37; S 42  1191,47 .
The zero hypothesis H 0 is checked that
assumption that
The number of degrees of freedom is:
S12  S 22  S 32  S 42
Y1  19  1  18; Y2  27  1  26; Y3  31  3  30; Y4  18  1  17
In this case
4
(3)
Y   Yi  91.
i 4
On the other hand,
(4)
S2 
1 4
1
Yi S i2  164 495,98  1807,5

Y i 4
91
To calculate the value  2 , the following values are determined:
60
Association Scientific and Applied Research
as an
(5) C  1 
1  n 1 1 
   1,0158,
3(n  1)  i 1 Yi Y 
Y1  ln
Y2  ln
In this case:
(6)
2 
S12
 0,3722,
S 22
 0,4488,
S2
S
Y3  ln
S 32
 0,5265,
S
Y4  ln
S 42
 0,4168,
S
S i2
1 4
ln
 9,659,

C i 1 S 2
At a level of importance  2 
S i2
1 4
ln
 9,659, from the tables of  2 the

C i 1 S 2
distribution of the degrees of freedom 4-1=3 is given: (0,05; 3)=7,815.
4. CONCLUZION
Because  2 =9,659>7,815=  2 (0,05; 3), the conclusion is that there
are reasons to reject the zero hypothesis, which means th at the four
dispersions are different. Since they cannot be considered equal, there
are distinct variations of the examined values of total ozone content for
the given months. Since the dispersion S 32 =3060,37 is maximum, the
conclusion should be that the observed anomaly in the total ozone
contents values is the biggest in July when the trend is negative during
the second half of the month and the total ozone content reaches 185
Dobson units. Similar explanation can be given for the maximum values
within the range 176-181 Dobson units in the beginning of August. A
Association Scientific and Applied Research
61
registered sudden transition towards anomalous values of the total ozone
content can be observed at the end of July.
[1].
[2].
[3].
[4].
[5].
[6].
62
REFERENCES:
Fioletov, V. E, 1989: Metteorologiya and Hydrology, №7
Hrigian, А.H., 1989: Metteorologiya and Hydrology, №7
Hudson, D., 1970: Statistics for Physicists, М., Мir
Filipova, М., 2007: Ecology and environment Publishing Complex
National Military University "Vasil Levski " V. Tarnovo, с. 131-133
M. Filipova, S. Stoyanov, A. Manev, Spectrophotometer for Registering of
Fast Processes, Ecology and futur, Vol.Х, №.1-2, 2011, с. 25- 30
Filipova M., S.Stoyanov, Influence of t the atmospheric characteristics on
spacecraft flight, International Geo-Science Conference GeoAlb 2011, p.
353-356
Association Scientific and Applied Research
JOURNAL SCIENCE EDUCATION INNOVATION , VOL. 2. 2014
Association Scientific and Applied Research
International Journal
Original Contribution
ISSN 1314-9784
SATELLITE ECOLOGICAL MONITORING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
Stiliyan Stoyanov, Margarita Filipova*
SPACE RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGIES INSTITUTE –
BULGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
E-mail: [email protected]
*ANGEL KYNCHEV UNIVERSITY, ROUSSE, BULGARY
ADDRESS: 7007 ROUSSE, 1 PROF. IVAN IVANOV STR., BULGARIA,
E-mail: [email protected]
ABSTRACT: This overview presents an analysis of the optical and lidar methods for
monitoring of the atmosphere. Emphasis is put on optical studies conducted on board of
spacecraft, as they prove to be the most effective information methods for monitoring the
atmosphere by studying certain atmospheric optical phenomena, variability in Earth's
atmosphere, as well as geo-Heliophysical activity.
The control on the atmosphere is crucial in weather forecasting and air pollution.
This control is provided using remote sensing methods for probing the atmosphere and the
crusty surface, by multi-purpose lidars providing information on environmental monitoring of
the atmosphere.
KEY WORDS: satellite, monitoring, lidar, optical, method
INTRODUCTION
Scientific researches and experiments have been carried out with all
spacecraft. An important part of the extensive programme for space experiments is the optical research of the atmosphere monitoring.
From the Earth’s surface, which is part of the huge atmosphere, through
relatively narrow in spectrum “windows” of atmosphere transparency, it is hard
to imagine the general picture of the numerous physical phenomena and
processes taking place in the Earth’s atmosphere, the near and far space. The
beginning of the space era opened wide vistas for the human species to enter
it; the launch of measuring devices and some scientific space laboratories into
the previously inaccessible space around the Earth and between the planets
Association Scientific and Applied Research
63
and studying them in manned or unmanned spa- cecraft [1]. The space
laboratories made it possible to study many sectors of the infrared, ultraviolet,
X- ray and gamma emission that are absorbed in their entirety by the Earth’s
atmosphere.
The optical monitoring from the space with piloted aircraft is one of the most
efficient and informative methods of system monitoring. With each flight, the
existing preconceptions of certain optic atmospheric phenomena are getting
more precise. In each flight arise particular circumstan- ces, allowing the
study of particular atmospheric optical phenomena, the changeability of the
Earth’s atmosphere and the terrestrial and solar activity.
Visual observation is widely used by astronauts in piloted aircraft
observation. They play a major part in studying the spatial and temporal
distribution of a number of atmospheric optical phenomena’s visible emission.
Visual observations of optical phenomena from the board of the piloted
spacecraft are carried out in constant connection with instrumental research on
the spatial and temporal distribution of the spectral and energy properties of
certain components emitting in the ultraviolet and infrared segment of the
visible spectrum. To register the spatial and temporal distribution of the
sufficiently high-contrast optical phenomena, diverse television, cinema and
photographic equipment is used, and to register the spectral energetic properties
of the optical phenol- mena – spectrophotometric and spectroradiometric
equipment.
The possibility of studying optical phenomena through the portholes,
unprotected from variations in the light, in the twilight zone and in the daylight
side of the Earth, depends, to a large extent, on the preliminary function of the
porthole [2], which is based on the filtering of certain emissions.
Assessing the diffused emission from the por- tholes, it is accepted that
they diffuse 1-5% from the emissions that fall on them. Then, in the night
side of the Earth, the portholes brightness, not taking into account the light
sources in the space station, the aurora and the direct glow of the Moon, does
not exceed the natural background brigh- tness, the night atmosphere airglow,
the clouds and the terrestrial surface. This makes possible the successful
conducting of experiments in the nigh- tlight side of the Earth and the
identification of such faint sources like the airglow of the upper layer of the
atmosphere, the zodiacal light, the stars, the planets, the meteors, the cloud
cover and the Earth’s surface. The Moon glow and the powerful polar aurora
significantly increase the brightness of the diffuse glow from the portholes,
which, during a full moon phase can reach up to 1-2.10-4 cd/m-2.
The possibility of identifying the weakest emitting sources, like the second
emitting layer of the night atmosphere, the zodiacal light, etc, weakens.
In conducting space experiments, the long- duration flights are particularly
effective; they allow for systematic monitoring of the atmosphere and the
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
atmospheric optical phenomena to be carried out. Due to this, new regularities
in certain physical processes, observable in the Earth’s atmosphere, can be
identified. The monitoring in the course of along-duration flight also has other
specifics. At the start of the flight, various emotional factors influence the
astronauts’ view of their surroundings. The astronauts admire the bright
colourful images line intensity when λ = 5,577 A . In the first layer it of the
twilight and daylight halo, the sunrise and the sunset. The beauty of the cloud
cover, the expanses of water and the terrestrial surface, aurorae, noctilucent
clouds, nightglow layers, etc. Then the astronauts slowly get accustomed to
these images and start to notice more important details in the atmosphere that
play substantial role in the monitoring from space: the expanse of water, the
cloud cover and the Earth surface, In the course of a long flight, the astronauts
start to syste- matize and analyze the phenomena observed. Following
consultations with experts during the communication sessions, astronauts
themselves conduct certain experiments that have a major importance for the
study of the environment. Very helpful for conducting scientific experiments
is the programme for visual monitoring of piloted spacecraft.
1. OPTICAL MONITORING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
The Earth’s nightglow
The spectral energetic properties and the temporal and spatial distribution of
the Earth’s airglow depend, to a large extent, on the geophysical and
heliophysical activity, and, consequently, are very sensitive indicators of the
Sun-Earth relations. The monitoring from piloted spacecraft, as well as the
profuse data gathered on the Earth, from aircraft, aerostats, rockets and satellites,
allow us to draw the general picture of the visible nightglow of the Earth’s
atmosphere and to define its most significant components. [2,3 4].
In the visible spectrum, the glow of the first emitting layer occurs mainly as
a result of chemical reactions leading to the appearance of excited O2, NO2
molecules and O and Na atoms. The most significant contribution to the visible
glow of the first emitting layer is that of the chemiluminescent reactions.
However, viewed from space, only the emission of the green line is visible,
because the night vision visibility quotient for the spectrum segment λ = 6,300
A is about 0.003, and for the segment λ = 5577 A – about 1.3. In photographs
of the second emitting layer, the red line could prove dominant. This depends
on the spectral sensitivity of the sensor.
The second emitting layer is characterised by substantial temporal and
spatial nonhomogeneity and instability. Faint vertical ray structure has been
discovered in it. Under normal conditions, in the absence of geoor heliophysical
disturbances, the brightness of the second layer, during observation from space,
horizontally equals ~ 0.1 mcd/m-2 and during the midnight increase it reaches
Association Scientific and Applied Research
65
0.3 – 0.4 mcd/m-2.
The glow in the second emitting layer planetwide usually heralds a
powerful aurora. The planetary glow of the second emitting layer can often be
observed even after the end of powerful aurorae. Thus, the second emitting
layer is a much more sensitive indicator of geoand heliophysical activity, as
well as of the Sun-Earth relations.
Aurorae
The term “aurora” includes a complex of various and diverse phenomena
related to excitement and optical emission of the upper layers of the Earth’s
atmosphere. The glow of the aurorae is changeable in terms of its spectral and
energetic character and of spatial and temporal distribution. However, most
of these phenomena have the same feature in common: they arise mainly
under the influence of electron and positron currents entering the Earth’s
atmosphere.
The polar aurorae can often be observed in the morning auroral oval, the
night part of which is situated approximately along geomagnetic latitude 67°,
and the day part – about 75°. The oval is eccentric in relation to the magnetic
dipole and shifts by some 4° toward the equator in the night sector. The
concept of the morning auroral oval is widely popular and recognised and is a
nearly universal means to represent the sectors of airglow of the aurorae, both
in the Northern and the Southern hemisphere.
The orbital station observations show that from the Space the aurorae in the
morning auroral oval section can be observed continuously, although from the
Earth’s surface they are not always visible. When observed from space, in
the course of several Earth rotations, the segment of maximum auroral
luminosity (in all cases in the visible spectrum) shifts along the length of the
morning auroral oval at the speed of the rotation of the Earth, i.e. remains
virtually static in relation to the Earth’s magnetosphere. This phenomenon
reminds of the midnight increase in the nightglow from the upper layers of
the earth’s atmosphere. It is possible this penetration into the Earth’s
atmosphere takes place from the same section in the magnetosphere. Of
particular interest are the results from the observation of the colour image of
the airglow sectors of the aurora, which provide the opportunity to make a
quality assessment of the energy of the electron currents exciting the aurora
glow. For more than a month and a half of flight time, systematic daily
observations of auroras have been made, corroborating the suggestions made
earlier on the possibility of continuous monitoring from space of polar aurora
in the morning oval sector.
After the end of the polar glow after sunset until sunrise, there is general
atmosphere airglow. The first emitting layer mingles with the Earth’s visible
horizon. Above the first emitting layer there is a faintly dim glow. There is
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
the feeling that the orbital complex is within mist and flies above separate areas
of glowing atmosphere situated below it. After a while, the first emitting layer
splits into greenish brown sublayers.
The monitoring from space superbly complete the results from the research
carried out on the Earth and allows to achieve substantially more detailed
picture of the development of a polar aurora. The research carried out on Earth
and on the orbital station can be adequately completed with pictures and
televised imaged, received from altitude 500-1000 km from unmanned
spacecraft. Such complex research allows for acquiring a sufficiently detailed
picture of the spatial and temporal distribution and the spectral and energetic
one of the glow of the polar aurorae on a global scale.
Noctilucent clouds
Until the dawn of the space research era, the study on the noctilucent clouds
was carried out mainly via ground and aircraft monitoring in the twilight horizon
as well as with geophysical rockets, launched at least from altitude of 90 and
more kilometers.
On the basis of a number of results from ground, aircraft and space
experiments, the re has been developed the idea of the spatial and temporal
distribution, the morphology, the composition, and the nature of the noctilucent
clouds. It can be hypothesized, that at the same latitude, the noctilucent clouds
appear with the same frequency on all longitudes. From the Earth they can be
observed between several minutes and four or more hours, they have a tendency
to appear for several days on end (they form clouds series). In periods of
heightened solar activity, noctilucent clouds can be observed predominantly in
the morning.
Noctilucent clouds can be observed mainly at altitude between 74 and 92
km, and more often 80-85 km, with average monitoring altitude 82 km, which
corresponds to the mesopause altitude. The thickness of the noctilucent cloud
layer is about 2 km or less. Noctilucent clouds are comprised of diffused
particles, their composition is still not clear and they have a number of peculiar
properties. There are three hypotheses about the origin of the noctilucent clouds:
“dust”, “ice” and intermediate, according to which they are composed of dust
particles of micrometeorite origin, on which water vapour condenses to form
ice crystals.
According to the existing classification, a number of morphological
structures of noctilucent clouds exist: gas, strips, waves and vortexes. The gas
type is a homogenous aerosol form, present almost always within the
noctulucent clouds and usually filling the space between other areas. Strips are
quite dim cloud forms, set out against the background of other gas. Waves are
clearly visible against the gas background.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
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2. LIDAR SENSING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
Knowledge the physical parameters of the atmosphere, which have
substantial influence on atmosphere monitoring, including the processes of
weather change, pollution, the solar eruption trans- formation, the distribution
of optical waves, is of essential importance. In relation to this, the
development of methods for sensing the atmospheric parameters, without any
doubt, is a very pressing task.
Atmosphere monitoring has a decisive role in solving such large-scale
problems like weather forecasting and environmental pollution.
This monitoring can occur only with via the use of remote methods for
sensing the atmosphere and the underlying layer. Laser sensing occupies a
particular place among the remote methods. This is due to the diversity of the
phenomena, interacting with the laser emission of the atmosphere, the cross
section is most important in the visible electromagnetic spectrum [3,6].
Via the use of the above phenomena makes it theoretically possible to laser
sense virtually every physical parameter of the atmosphere: temperature,
pressure, density, humidity, the content of gas components in the atmosphere,
turbulence properties, the aerosols, in their numerous forms, with sustainable
existence (clouds, fogs, mists, smoke, precipitation, etc.), optical parameters
(attenuation coefficient, scatter indexes, scatter matrix components) and
microphysical properties (spectra, size, concentration, complex refractive
index, and particle shape).
The atmosphere laser sensing methods surpass the competition of the other
remote sensing methods due to their capacity for gathering data from high
spatial and temporal solutions.
The data from the laser sensing of the atom- sphere polluting components
with high temporal and spatial solutions are of essential importance in
obtaining information on the dynamics of polluting components distribution in
the atmosphere.
Thanks to the atmosphere laser sensing methods, the simultaneous obtaining
of data on the polluting component and on any other physical parameters of the
atmosphere can be achieved. This is essential, as the atmospheric pollution
is substantially dependent on the background presence of its various parameters.
Basics of the atmosphere laser sensing method
While travelling in the atmosphere, the laser emission undergoes numerous
transformations. The emission energy can be absorbed by the atmospheric gases
and aerosol particles, it scatters when it accidentally meets non-uniformities in
air density or aerosol particles. Atmospheric turbulence causes accidental
variation in the amplitude and the phase of the laser beam. Light scattering
leads to the appearance of, besides the sensing frequency, combination
frequencies, corresponding to various gases, in the diffused emission
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
spectrum[7].
To gather data on the atmospheric parameters and their distribution in space
and time, it is necessary not only to create the respective equipment, but also
to decipher the echo-signals of the interaction of sensing laser emission with
the atmosphere. To decipher the echo signals, most of all it is necessary to have
sufficiently correct solutions of the direct problems from the atmosphere optics,
i.e. problems connected with the study of the influence of the atmosphere on
the laser beam with given characteristics (spectrum, energy, power, forma of
the impulse, polarization, coherence, emission angle of refraction, etc.)
An important condition for the successful deciphering of the echo signals is
connected to solving the inverse problems from the atmosphere optics, ensuring,
ultimately, categorical reconstruction of the atmospheric properties.
Laser sensing of aerosols
Aerosols play an important role in the process of forming a radiation field
in the atmosphere, the weather forming processes, the various physical and
chemical transformations, including those connected to the anthropogenic
activity. Aerosols determine the atmospheric albedo, which has and important
role in the processes of radiation exchange in the atmosphere-ocean-space
system. There are interesting possibilities in aerosol mono- frequency laser
sensing that are connected to the use of the polarization properties of the echo
signals. The presence of polarized components other than zero can be caused/
determined by the polydisperse effect or the nonsphericity of monodisperse
particles [4]. Thus, in measuring the polarized components of the echo signals
from clouds with low optical thickness, when the polydisperse effects are
disregarded, the phase cross section of the cloud is categorically determined.
Multifrequency laser sensing
Multifrequency laser sensing ensure results from the detailed digital
modelling with variations in the number of lengths of the aerosol parameters.
Atmospheric humidity sensing
The water vapours field in the atmosphere plays a decisive role in the
weather forming processes, the different physical and chemical
transformations, including the atmospheric pollution with byproducts from the
anthropogenic activity. Due to this, increased attention is paid to the
development of methods for determining the level of humidity, including
remote ones.
Among the known methods for remote sensing of the humidity, the first
place is occupied by the differential absorption method. Its essence is the
following: if two sensing impulses are directed into the atmosphere, with the
length wave of one of them coinciding with the water vapour absorption
Association Scientific and Applied Research
69
line, and the other is in a neighbouring micro window of atmospheric
transparency, then, recording the two equations of lidar sensing and taking
their relation, the expression for determining the humidity profile can easily be
obtained.
A defining specific feature of the differential absorption application is
connected to the complex approach in solving the problem.
Refractive index laser sensing
The basis of the method [3,5] is the use of the breach in the spatial coherence
of the sensing beam’s field that is focused in the aerosol volume, at the expense
of the influence of the environment turbulence. Due to that, the image of the
lit part of the aerosol volume proves wider.
In conclusion, the advantage of the methods for determining the refractive
index using lidars, in comparison to the acoustic methods, is attributable to the
fact that the scope of the laser locator, unlike the acoustic one, does not depend
on the atmospheric turbulence. Besides, lidar methods ensure additional
stabilization of the data received at the expense of the spatial averaging of the
variations of the sensed properties along the whole route of the beam [5,7].
When impulse sources are used, lidars can become an effective means of
operating control on the atmospheric turbulence, although only in the lower
kilometer layer, making a dominant contribution to the integral meaning of
the refraction index.
Assessment of the possibilities for lidar sensing of the atmosphere from space
The laser sensing of the various atmospheric parameters from space has
an essential role for solving many important questions such as, above all,
reliable weather forecast, and operating control on the air pollution situation
and research on its dynamics. The implementation of the lidar methods ensures
obtaining precise data on the monitoring of the atmosphere on a global scale
with high spatial solution [8].
To estimate the possibilities for lidar sensing of the atmospheric parameters
from space, making use of the aerosol and molecular dispersion, calculations
of the echo signals have been made.
The analysis of the received data from the digital modelling shows the
possibility of restoring the information on the sensed parameters in analogue
signal processing mode, although only in the lower 30-km layer of the
atmosphere, as well as for the mesospheric clouds.
The utmost contribution in the echo-signals is made by the low 5-kilometer
layer. In all cases, the signal magnitude from this layer show that when the
signals reach the Earth’s surface, the sensing impulse still has a substantial load
of energy, which can be used to determine the properties of the underlying
surface: the transparency of the water in the ocean, the sea and other water
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
bodies, the state of the various underlying surfaces, for highly precise
determining the distance of the lidar from the Earth’s surface.
The results from the digital experiments allow us to draw a conclusion
regarding the practicality of determining the microphysical parameters of the
aerosols at various heights in the atmosphere, for multifrequency laser sensing,
as well as for sensing using polarization effects. The most promising is cloud
sensing; the reflection of the sensing impulses from the clouds explain the
significantly bigger magnitudes of echo signals, than with the reflection from
regular aerosol layers [5].
The described method of differential absorption for defining humidity profile
and other gas compo- nents of atmosphere, with undoubted success can be used
in sensing from space. Besides, in such a case, it will be much more efficient,
insomuch as there opens up the possibility to use the strongest absorption lines;
with their help, very small concentrations of water vapour and other gases in
the upper layers of the atmosphere and in the near space can be measures.
The use of a set of lines with varying intensity allows for sensing the gas
profile in a wide altitude interval.
The monitoring results show a relatively wide distribution of the
noctilucent clouds and other diffusing layers in the mesopause. Possibly, they
are connected to extremely beneficial circum- stances for monitoring the
mesopause from space during flights in solar orbit. From the terrestrial surface,
the monitoring of the mesopause in the equatorial zone is significantly more
difficult to carry out than at latitudes 45-70°. At the low and the equatorial
latitudes the timeframe when it is possible to observe noctilucent clouds in
the mesopause in the twilight zone, is too narrow, it does not exceed several
minutes, while in the middle latitude it is tens of minutes and hours. This is an
extremely interesting and important result, substantively clarifying the concept
of the mesopause structure in the low equatorial latitudes.
Perspectives for further research
The optical monitoring, carried out by orbital stations of the atmospheric
airglows, polar aurorae and noctilucent clouds, make possible the gathering of extensive data that can be used for atmosphere monitoring,
clarifying the concept of a number of physical processes and phenomena in
the Earth’s atmosphere. Of particular importance is the study of the atmospheric
optical phenomena in the upper layers of the atmosphere, accessible for
immediate observation only from an orbit at altitude 200–400 km. The most
beneficial conditions arise during long-term flights, which is connected not
only with the opportunity for the astronauts to conduct systematic research,
as well as with the gradual improvement of the experimental methods.
The emissions in the upper layers of the atmosphere, polar aurorae and
noctilucent clouds are a reliable indicator of the geomagnetic, geophysical
Association Scientific and Applied Research
71
and heliophysical activity. To the largest extent, this is applicable to the second
emitting layer, whose emission substantially depends on the density of the
electronic currents and the intensity of shortwave solar emission.
In the theoretic domain, special attention should be paid to the development
of the algorithms for solving the inverse equations in the irregular shape
particle optics. In particular, this is especially necessary with laser sensing
using polarization effects.
The development of laser equipment should be oriented towards creating
unique lidars with multipurpose function, to ensure the obtaining of data on
the profiles of various atmospheric physical parameters, with maximum
possible
spatial solution and designed for the utmost possible altitudes,
accessible for sensing; lidars designed to obtain operating data, important in
everyday practice, on the profiles of the separate atmosphere parameters,
lidars designed to be installed in satellites and, above all, on piloted stations.
In relation with this, the programme for subsequent space flights should
include systematic optical monitoring and instrumental research of the spatial
and temporal distribution and the spectral energetic properties of the
atmosphere.
REFERENCES
[1] Getsov, P. Space, ecology, security. New Bulgarian university, Sofia, 2002,
p. 211
[2] Getsov P. Satellite systems for ecological monitoring. Scientific papers,
Intl. conference “Energy technology and environmental protection”, Sofia,
2000, p. 54-61.
[3] Stoyanov, S. Optical methods for research on atomspheric ozone. Faber.
Veliko Tarnovo, 2009, p.231[4] Getsov P, Mardirossian The ecological
activities of the Space research institute at the Bulgarian academy of
sciences. Third national conference on aviation, marine and spatial medicine.
Borovets, 1999, p. 198-201
[5] Zhekov, J. Optical methods and means of locating remote objects from
the board of a spacecraft, University Publishing House “Episkop Konstantin
Preslavski”, Shumen, 2006, p.308
[6] Manev A., V. Ivanov, S. Raykov. Satellite monitoring for research on
anomalies in the annual variation of temperatures on the surface of the
Black sea. VIII Natl. conference “Modern issues in the solar- terrestrial
influences”. Sofia, 2002, p. 153-156
[7] Mardirossian, G., Aerospatial methods in ecology and environment
monitoring. Professor Marin Drinov Academic publishing house, Sofia,
2003, p.208
[8] Filipova M, S. Stoyanov. Ecological monitoring and environment
management. Applied Science Research Publishing, Sofia, 2011, p.337
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
JOURNAL SCIENCE EDUCATION INNOVATION , VOL. 2. 2014
Association Scientific and Applied Research
International Journal
Original Contribution
ISSN 1314-9784
MODELS OF MAXIMUM CONCENTRATIONS OF NITROGEN
DIOXIDE AND NITROGEN MONOXIDE IN THE AIR ALONG THE
BULGARIAN BANK OF THE DANUBE RIVER
Маriana Todorova*, Lyubomir Vladimirov, Еlitsa Babanova
*UNIVERSITY OF SHUMEN, 115 UNIVERSITETSKA STREET, 9712 SHUMEN
E-mail: [email protected]
UNIVERSITY OF RUSE, 8 STUDENTSKA STREET, 7017 RUSE
E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]
ABSTRACT: Statistical models are built of the regularities of nitrogen dioxide and
nitrogen monoxide pollution of the air along the Bulgarian bank of the Danube river. They
are theoretically significant and practically applicable in the management of the border
environmental safety.The indicators chosen are the maximum hourly, daily and annual
average concentrations. They present fully and authentically the pollution degree and its
changes in a time function.
KEW WORDS: air, pollution, nitrogen dioxide, nitrogen monoxide.
Defining the air pollution in border regions has a number of main aspects.
The first aspect is the need of air quality monitoring in the country. The second
aspect is defining the risk degree of cross-border transfer to the territory of the
country. The third aspect is using the results in developing the system of
national security, and more specifically environmental safety. The forth aspect is
informing the citizens about the safety degree of the living conditions in the
towns and villages.
The objective of the present work is to model statistically the regularities of
air pollution with nitrogen dioxide and nitrogen monoxide in the Bulgarian
region of the Danube river.
To achieve the objective we solve four main tasks: 1. We choose pollution
indicators; 2. We prepare representative sample data of concentrations; 3. We do
computer processing of measurement results; 4. We model the concentrations of
nitrogen dioxide and nitrogen monoxide.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
73
The maximum hourly average concentrations, the maximum daily average
concentrations, the maximum annual average concentrations of nitrogen dioxide
and nitrogen monoxide are taken as pollution indicators.
The reasons for this are that according to Regulation 12 [2] the maximum
allowed values of hourly and daily average concentrations and the number of
their exceeding are standardized in Bulgaria.
The hourly average limit for human health protection from nitrogen dioxide
is 200 µg/m3. It should not be surpassed more than 18 times within a calendar
year.
Cincentration NO2, mkg/m3
70
y = -0.0066x2 + 0.3956x + 18.856
R2 = 0.2723
60
y = -0,0075x2 + 0,6848x + 13,044
R2 = 0,3728
50
40
30
20
10
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
Month
Hour concentraion NO2
Day concentration NO2
Poly. (Hour concentraion NO2)
Poly. (Day concentration NO2)
а)
Concentration NO, mkg/m3
90
y = -0,0071x2 + 0,4075x + 20,684
2
R = 0,1476
70
2
y = 0.0004x + 0.1198x + 18.677
2
R = 0.2523
50
30
10
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
Month
Hour concentration NO
Day concentration NO
Poly. (Hour concentration NO)
Poly. (Day concentration NO)
b)
Fig 1. Dinamic series and trend of maximum hour and maximum day
concentration in Nikopol: а) nitrogen dioxide; b) nitrogen monoxide
74
Association Scientific and Applied Research
The annual average limit for human health protection from nitrogen
dioxide is 40 µg/m3. There is no limit about the number of exceedings of the
annual average limit for nitrogen dioxide and nitrogen monoxide.
The limit for vegetation protection is 30 µg/m3 nitrogen dioxide and
nitrogen monoxide.
Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the hourly, daily and annual average
concentrations in a time function. Hence two time indicators are used.
The first indicator is the dynamic statistical series of hourly, daily and
annual average concentrations that show the fluctuation by months and years.
The second indicator of fluctuation in time is the trend. It approximates the
dynamic series with regression models and illustrates the common tendencies of
concentration fluctuation.
Table 1
Theoretical and empirical distribution of nitrogen dioxide in the air in
Nikopol
Maximum hour concentration
Maximum day concentration
InvGauss(24.590; 188.922) Shift=-0.14945
Gamma(1.1818; 8.3393) Shift=+9.7342
6
8
7
5
6
Values x 10^-2
Values x 10^-2
4
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
5.0%
<
12.87
>
90.0%
5.0%
70
60
50
40
30
10
90
100
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
90.0%
10.5
20
0
0
>
41.09
37.6
Parameters
Theoreti
cal model
Gamma
distribu
tion
Empirical
distribution
a
1.181824
m
Theoreti
cal model
Invariant
Gauss
distribu
tion
24.59019
b
Left X
Left P
Right X
Right P
Diff. X
Diff. P
Minimum
Maximum
8.339281
10.5
95.00%
37.6
5.00%
27.1054
90.00%
9.7342
+Infinity
l
Left X
Left P
Right X
Right P
Diff. X
Diff. P
Minimum
Maximum
188.922
12.87
95.00%
41.09
5.00%
28.2107
90.00%
-0.14945
+Infinity
10.5
96.01%
37.6
5.25%
27.1054
90.76%
9.74
92.12
Parameters
Association Scientific and Applied Research
Empirical
distribution
12.87
92.65%
41.09
3.68%
28.2107
88.97%
10.74
67.98
75
Mean
19.5898
19.59
Mean
24.441
24.441
Mode
11.2505
16.200
Mode
20.104
29.340
Median
16.9907
16.635
Median
22.951
23.415
Std.
Std.
Deviation
9.0658
9.6279
Deviation
8.8716
8.8195
Variance
82.1883
92.501
Variance
78.705
77.211
Skewness
1.8397
2.2481
Skewness
1.0823
1.1282
Kurtosis
8.0769
11.5991
Kurtosis
4.9524
6.098
We created a data base of measurements made by the Executive
environmental agency in Nikopol, Svishtov, Ruse and Silistra. No data were
found about nitrogen oxide measurements in Vidin, consequently it is not
included in the study [1,3].
The measurements are made mainly with systems for remote optical
absorption spectroscopy (ROAS). At measuring station 1 in Ruse OPSIS system
is used.
We study the concentrations at one measurement station (ROAS) in
Nikopol and Svishtov, at three measurement stations in Ruse (OPS R1, ROAS
R2, Automatic measurement station (AMS Vazrazhdane) and two measurement
stations (ROAS S1 and ROAS S2) in Silistra.
The period of observation is from 2007 to 2013. The data from this period
are analyzed as one experiment. Excerpts are taken by months and years. Each
maximum concentration by hour, day and year is treated as a separate test.
The maximum concentrations are analyzed as continuous random variables.
Therefore, methods of the probability theory and mathematical statistics are
used [1,3,4].
We abide by Regulation 12 [2] requirements for summarizing data and
statistical parameters. The required minimum valid data for hourly average
values is 45 minutes. For daily values - 75 % of hourly average values or at least
18 hourly average values.
The annual average value is calculated as 90% of the hourly average values
or 24-hour values per annum.
We check the hypothesis by 14 statistical laws of distribution of continuous
random variables: the law of equal probability (Uniform); gamma distribution
(Gamma); normal distribution (Normal); triangular distribution (Triang);
logarithmic-normal (LogNormal); exponential distribution (Expon), logistic
distribution (Logistic); logarithmic-logistic distribution (LogLogistic), invariant
Gauss distribution of Wald (InvGauss), Weibull distribution (Weibull), Rayleigh
distribution (Rayleigh); Pearson distribution (Pearson); Erlang distribution
(Erlang), Gumbel distribution for extreme value (ExtValue).
We use specialized software - Risk 4.5 for the computer processing of the
data.
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
The established laws for concentration distribution are regarded as
theoretical models, which approximate experimental data. We construct their
graphical interpretations illustrated in Tables 1 and 2. We represent the
parameters and values of the theoretical distributions of concentrations. In
parallel we give the values of empirical distribution – Table 1-13.
We use 13 values, which determine the position of the random values of
maximum concentrations, concentration diffusion, the symmetry and the degree
of distribution pointedness: 1) left and right absolute limit (Left X and Right X);
2) left and right relative limit (Left P and Right P в %); 3) absolute range (Diff.
X); 4) relative range (Diff. P in %); 5) minimum value (Minimum); 6) maximum
value (Maximum); 7) mean value (Mean); 8) mode (Mode); 9) median
(Median); 10) standard deviation (Standart Deviation); 11) variance (Variance);
12) asymmetry (Skewness); 13) excess (Kurtosis).
We make one-criterion modeling of empirical data. Pearson criterion is
used for checking the correspondence hypothesis.
The dynamic series of maximum concentrations in Nikopol are represented
in Figure 1. They are highly variable by character. The trend is described
through regression dependencies of second order.
The coefficients of correlation R2 reflect the degree of dependence on time.
With nitrogen dioxide the coefficient R2 is 0.2723 for maximum hourly average
concentrations, while for maximum daily average concentrations R2 is 0.3725.
For the nitrogen monoxide they are respectively 0.1476 and 0.2523. These
values show that the correlation is small but some values are close to the mean
value.
The maximum hourly average concentrations of nitrogen dioxide are
distributed by gamma distribution, while the daily average concentrations by
invariant Gauss distribution.
Table 1 reports that the range of maximum hourly average concentration is
very broad – from 9.74 to 92.12 g/m3. The mean value is 19.59 g/m3.
The maximum value is important - 92.12 g/m3. It is many times lower
than the limit. It should be regarded that we analyze the maximum
concentrations. The maximum value of distribution is a peculiar “maximum of
the maximum”.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
77
Table 2
Theoretical and empirical distribution of nitrogen monoxide in the air in
Nikopol
Maximum hour concentration
Maximum day concentration
LogLogistic(7.7693; 13.257; 4.3063)
Pearson5(3.5263; 43.503) Shift=+4.5606
9
7
8
6
7
5
Values x 10^-2
Values x 10^-2
6
4
3
5
4
3
2
2
1
1
0
90.0%
10.7
Parameters
5.0%
>
<
Theoreti
cal model
Pearson
distribu
tion
Empirical Parameters
distribution
55
60
45
5.0%
50
35
90.0%
14.46
44.2
40
25
30
15
20
10
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
>
34.04
Theoreti
Empirical
cal model distribution
Loglogistic
distribution
g
7.76931
a
3.526296
b
13.25697
b
43.5035
a
4.306341
Left X
10.7
10.7
Left X
14.46
14.46
Left P
95.00%
94.12%
Left P
95.00%
93.58%
Right X
44.2
44.2
Right X
34.04
34.04
Right P
5.00%
3.53%
Right P
5.00%
7.34%
Diff. X
33.4634
33.4634
Diff. X
19.5747
19.5747
Diff. P
90.00%
90.59%
Diff. P
90.00%
86.24%
Minimum
4.5606
8.54
Minimum
7.7693
11.42
Maximum
+Infinity
118.69
Maximum
+Infinity
56.45
Mean
21.781
21.828
Mean
22.28
22.319
Mode
14.172
26.080
Mode
19.647
14.490
Median
18.159
17.9
Median
21.026
20.87
Std.
Std.
Deviation
13.939
14.081
Deviation
6.8911
6.7156
Variance
194.286
195.96
Variance
47.487
44.685
Skewness
9.3896
4.2139
Skewness
3.4626
1.8079
Kurtosis
27.9172
Kurtosis
104.9182
8.4719
The mode reflects the maximum density of concentration distribution 16.200 g/m3. The median (16.635g/m3) divides the concentration distribution
surface of nitrogen dioxide into two equal parts.
78
Association Scientific and Applied Research
Comparing the standard deviation and variations it can be concluded about
the degree fluctuation variability of concentrations. The standard deviation or
the estimated standard deviation is 9.6279 g/m3 and the variation 92.501g/m3. Compared to the mean value of maximum hourly average
concentrations the diffusion is not big and can be regarded as medium. The
excess is 11.5991 g/m3, which proves that the distribution is more pointed
compared to the normal distribution. Therefore, the concentration values are
fixed in narrower range.
The maximum daily average concentration has different characteristics
compared to the hourly average one. The range is small - 28.2107 g/m3. The
maximum value is 67.98 g/m3, which is less than the limit.
Analogously, we can also make a remark about the mean value - 24.441
g/m3. It is higher than the mean value of the hourly average concentration.
The asymmetry (1.8397 g/m3) of the law of maximum hourly average
concentrations is positive, which shows left orientation of the graphics. It is
confirmed by the illustration in Table 1.
350
y = 8E-06x4 - 0,0015x3 + 0,1031x2 - 2,4419x + 93,605
Concentration NO2, µg/m3
300
250
200
150
100
y = 0,0035x2 - 0,3205x + 35,753
R² = 0,0205
50
y = 0,0037x2 - 0,2991x + 18,746
R² = 0,0493
0
0
6
12
18
24
30
Month
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
Hour concentration
Day concenytration
Month concentration
Poly. (Hour concentration)
Poly. (Day concenytration)
Poly. (Month concentration)
78
а)
Association Scientific and Applied Research
79
Concentration NO
300
250
y = 0,003x2 + 0,1324x + 46,904
R² = 0,0184
200
150
100
50
y = -0,0047x + 10,116
R² = 0,0002
y = -0,1094x + 22,636
R² = 0,0771
0
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
Month
Hour concentration
Day concentration
Month concentration
Poly. (Hour concentration)
Linear (Day concentration)
Linear (Month concentration)
b)
Fig 2. Dinamic series and trend of maximum hour and maximum day
concentration in Svishtov: а) nitrogen dioxide; b) nitrogen monoxide
The mode (29.340 g/m3) and the median (23.415 g/m3) are higher values
but they are of the same order. The same can be claimed about the standard
deviation (8.8195 g/m3) and the variation (77.211 g/m3) as well.
The asymmetry and the excess are also positive – Table 1.
The theoretical and the empirical distribution of nitrogen monoxide in the
air in Nikopol are shown in Table 2.
The theoretical models are Pearson distribution for maximum hourly
average concentrations and respectively – logarithmic-logistic distribution for
maximum daily average concentrations.
Table 3
Theoretical and empirical distribution of nitrogen monoxide in the air in
Svishtov
Maximum hour concentration
Maximum day concentration
Parameter
Theoreti
Empirical Parameters Theoretical Empirica
s
cal model distribution
model
l
Pearson
LogLogistic distributi
distribution
distribution
on
a
3.4885
-3.4492

22.8904

b
140.7942
2.38590

80
Association Scientific and Applied Research
Left X
5.8
5.8
Left X
3.2
3.2
Left P
95.00%
96.30%
Left P
95.00%
94.61%
Right X
116.4
116.4
Right X
75.2
75.2
Right P
5.00%
4.63%
Right P
5.00%
3.92%
Diff. X
110.6150
110.6150
Diff. X
71.9719
71.9719
Diff. P
90.00%
91.67%
Diff. P
90.00%
90.69%
Minimum
-14.295
9.1672
Minimum
-3.4492
0.0000
Maximum
+Infinity
303.25
Maximum
+Infinity
280.32
Mean
42.281
42.151
Mean
27.691
28.346
Mode
17.072
0.0000
Mode
12.293
0.0000
Median
30.239
27.150
Median
19.441
18.555
Std.
46.371
42.332
Std.
43.201
35.624
Deviation
Deviation
Variance
2150.29
1783.68
Variance
1866.343
1262.85
Skewness
9.9888
3.0308
Skewness
4.6445
Kurtosis
16.2808
Kurtosis
30.2094
The nitrogen monoxide is not standardized and the level of its content in
the air cannot be evaluated by statutory rules.
With the hourly average concentrations the left and right limit and the
range are as follows - 10.7; 44.2; 33.4634 g/m3. There is a big difference
between the minimum (8.54 g/m3) and the maximum value (118.69 g/m3) of
hourly average concentrations. The mean value (21.828 g/m3) is not high. The
mode 26.080 g/m3 and the median 17.9 g/m3 are close.
The standard deviation (14.081 g/m3) related to the maximum value and
the mean value is not considerable. The variation is 195.96 g/m3, which is
comparatively high but it is obtained by squaring the standard deviation. The
distributions have left orientation and considerable pointedness, which is
represented in the illustrations in Table 2.
The range of the maximum daily average concentrations of nitrogen
monoxide is similar to the hourly average concentrations – 19.57 g/m3 – Table
2.
The minimum value (11.42g/m3), maximum value (56.45 g/m3) and
mean value (22.319 g/m3) are similar. It can be explained with the way they are
calculated. They are defined by the hourly average concentrations in twentyfour-hour period. The variation 44.685 g/m3 corresponds to the mean value and
it is close to the variation of nitrogen dioxide.
The dynamic series and the fluctuation trend of the hourly average
concentrations and the maximum daily average concentration in the air in
Svishtov are enlisted in Figure 2.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
81
The maximum hourly average concentrations of nitrogen dioxide fluctuate
in the range from 30-40 to 290-300 g/m3. We find regularities in the dynamic
series. The concentrations increase. They coincide with the months of the
autumn and winter season. The maximum values are local.
The maximum daily average concentrations coincide in their regularities
with the hourly average concentrations. The reason is that they are analytically
determined by the hourly average concentrations, which means that they are
dependent.
The trends of the hourly average concentrations are regression models of
fourth order, while those of daily average concentrations are of second order.
The correlation coefficients are very small. This means that the concentrations
do not depend on the weather.
The theoretical and empirical distributions of the maximum hourly average
concentrations of nitrogen dioxide in the air in Svishtov are displayed in Table
3. The analysis shows the following regularities.
The theoretical distribution of maximum hourly average concentrations is
Pearson distribution. There is a big difference between the left and the right
absolute and relative limit. The absolute limits are respectively 5.8 and 116.4
g/m3. This leads to the concentrations having a big range – 110.6150 g/m3.
The minimum value is very low - 9.1672, at the same time the maximum
value reaches up to 303.25 g/m3. This is due to temporary considerable
increase in the concentrations. It can be said that such increases have regular
character.
Table 4
Theoretical and empirical distribution of nitrogen monoxide in the air in
Svishtov
Maximum hour concentration
Maximum day concentration
Parameters Theoretical Empirical Parameters
Theoreti
Empirical
model
distribu
cal model
distribu
LogLogistic
tion
Invariant
tion
distribution
Gauss
distribu
tion
γ
10.9448
21.5841
β
31.8260

α
2.2441
170.8918

19.5
19.5
Лява
8.82
8.82
Left X
граница X
Left P
5.00%
2.94%
Left X
5.00%
7.35%
Right X
129.1
129.1
Left P
33.24
33.24
Right P
95.00%
94.12%
Right X
95.00%
95.59%
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
Diff. X
Diff. P
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
Mode
Median
Std.
Deviation
109.6220
90.00%
10.945
+Infinity
56.156
31.709
42.771
80.097
109.6220
91.18%
13.170
463.35
60.192
36.850
41.905
69.897
Right P
Diff. X
Diff. P
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
Mode
24.4148
90.00%
-2.7231
+Infinity
18.861
15.156
17.590
7.6708
24.4148
88.24%
5.9900
46.960
18.861
21.910
17.745
7.7941
Median
6415.551
4813.77
Std.
58.841
59.854
Variance
Deviation
Skewness
4.2472
Variance
1.0662
1.2116
Kurtosis
22.1721
Skewness
4.8945
5.3779
The mean value is comparable to the concentrations in Nikopol – Figure 1
and Table 1-2. It is 42.151g/m3. Particularly impressive are the considerable
standard deviations and variations. They are respectively 42.332 and 1783.68
g/m3. They can be explained with the wider fluctuations of the hourly average
concentrations.
The asymmetry and the excess are positive, with left position and
pointedness higher than the normal distribution.
The theoretical and empirical distributions of the maximum daily average
concentrations of nitrogen dioxide in the air in Svishtov are shown in Table 3.
Their distribution is logarithmic–logistic with parameters =-3.4492; =22.8904;
=2.38590.
The absolute and relative limits should be pointed out because they
determine the whole range of concentration fluctuation. The left limit is 3.3
g/m3, the right 75.2 g/m3. The range is 71.97 g/m3.
The maximum value of the daily average concentration of nitrogen dioxide
is 280.32 g/m3. It is due to single growth. There is no repetition. The mean
concentration value (28.346 g/m3) is lower than the annual average
concentration – 40 g/m3. The diffusion is considerable. That is why the
standard deviation is 35.624 g/m3, and the variation is 1265.85 g/m3. The
asymmetry and the excess of the distributions of the maximum daily average
concentrations in the air in Svishtov are positive, which can be explained with
the nature of the distribution - logarithmic logistic.
The distributions of the maximum concentrations of nitrogen monoxide in
Svishtov are enlisted in Table 4.
The maximum hourly average concentration is dependent on logarithmic –
logistic distribution with parameters γ=10.9448; β=31.8260; α=2.2441. The
maximum value is 463.35 g/m3. The mean value is also considerable - 60.192
Association Scientific and Applied Research
83

Fig.3. Location of monitoring stations in Ruse

g/m3. The high values of the mode - 36.850 g/m3 and the median - 41.905
g/m3 correspond to it. The big range - 109.6220 g/m3 should be noted as well.
Unlike the hourly average concentrations we confirm invariant Gauss
distribution with daily average concentrations of nitrogen monoxide in the air in
Svishtov with parameters =21.5841 и =170.8918. Its left absolute limit is
very low - 8.82 g/m3. The right limit is 33.24 g/m3, which is due to the small
range of concentration fluctuation - 24.4148 g/m3.
Similar minimum and maximum values of empirical distribution
correspond to this range - 5.9900 and 46.960 g/m3. The mean value is 18.861
g/m3 and the standard deviation and variation are small - 7.7941 and 59.854
g/m3.
84
Association Scientific and Applied Research
200
180
y = 0,0109x2 - 1,0257x + 132,76
R² = 0,0557
Concentration NO2, µg/m3
160
140
120
100
80
y = -0,6862x + 123,3
R² = 0,197
60
40
y = -1,3444x + 133,59
R² = 0,2581
20
0
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
78
Month
Station Vazrazhdane
Poly. (Station Vazrazhdane)
Station OPS R1
Linear (Station OPS R1)
Station DOAS R2
Linear (Station DOAS R2)
а)
100
90
y = 0,0027x2 - 0,2743x + 46,656
R² = 0,0166
Concentration NO2, µg/m3
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
y = 0,0012x2 - 0,3209x + 41,664
R² = 0,1262
y = -0,0269x2 + 0,7375x + 34,159
R² = 0,6055
10
0
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
78
Month
Station Vazrazhdane
Poly. (Station Vazrazhdane)
Station OPS R1
Poly. (Station OPS R1)
Station DOAS R2
Poly. (Station DOAS R2)
b)
Fig 4. Dinamic series and trend of nitrogen dioxide concentration in Ruse: а)
maximum hour concentration; b) maximum day concentration
Association Scientific and Applied Research
85
The measuring stations in Ruse are located as it is shown on the map in
Figure 3. The measurements in OPS R1 represent the degree of pollution along
the bank of the Danube river. This measuring station is the closest to the border
of Bulgaria and Romania.
The dynamic series and the fluctuation trend of the maximum
concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and nitrogen monoxide in the air in Ruse are
illustrated in Figures 4 and 5.
The analysis of the dynamic series shows close values of the measurements
of hourly average concentrations and daily average concentrations. Clear
regularities are outlined. The concentrations which are measured in AMS
Vazrazhdane are the highest. They are followed by the concentrations measured
at station ROAS R2, which is located in the west industrial zone. The lowest
concentrations are found in the air at the bank of the Danube river.
Analogy we find with the regularities of the maximum daily average
concentrations of nitrogen dioxide, which are represented in Figure 4b.
The fluctuation trends are interesting. With the hourly average
concentrations at AMS Vazrazhdane the approximation follows a regression
model of second order, while in OPS R1 and ROAS R2 it is linear. It turns out
that the correlation coefficient R2 is insignificant at AMS Vazrazhdane, which
shows that the concentrations hardly depend on the weather. At the other two
stations the coefficient is respectively 0.2581 at OPS R1 and 0.197 at ROAS R2.
Similar tendencies are found with maximum daily average concentrations. The
concentration fluctuation trends at the three stations are of second order, and the
correlation coefficient is 0.6055 at OPS R1 and 0.1262 at ROAS R2.
The concentration fluctuations of nitrogen monoxide are displayed in
Figure 5. When we compare them it turns out that there are seasonal cycles only
with the concentrations measured in AMS Vazrazhdane. Their regression model
is of second order and it is with insignificant correlation coefficient - R2=0.0097,
which shows that they do not depend on the weather. This opposes the graphic
display of the concentrations. It could be assumed that it is due to the intensive
dynamics of concentration values. The correlation is small at the other two
stations - 0.0691 and 0.1347.
The dynamic series of the daily average concentrations of nitrogen
monoxide in Ruse are similar to the hourly average ones. There are coincidences
of maximum and minimum values as one is derived from the other. In this case
and also when monitoring the air quality, the daily average concentrations may
not be measured. The first reason is their dependence on the hourly average
concentrations and the second – they are not standardized in accordance with the
existing standards in the country. However, we should take into account the
requirement for validity and the number of measurements. Similarly to the
hourly average concentrations, the correlation coefficients are of the same order
-0.0019 at AMS Vazrazhdane, 0.1117 at ROAS R2 and 0.2916 at OPS R1.
86
Association Scientific and Applied Research
800
y = -0,0015x3 + 0,1712x2 - 6,0034x + 255,37
R² = 0,0097
Concentration NO, µg/m3
700
600
500
400
300
200
y = -0,1992x + 26,654
R² = 0,0691
100
y = -0,6252x + 42,756
R² = 0,1347
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Month
Station Vazrazhdane
Poly. (Station Vazrazhdane)
Station OPS R1
Linear (Station OPS R1)
Station DOAS R2
Linear (Station OPS R1)
а)
160
Concentration NO, µg/m3
140
120
y = 0,0004x2 - 0,0987x + 36,2
R² = 0,0019
100
80
60
40
20
y = -0,1496x + 14,013
R² = 0,4916
y = -0,1889x + 13,024
R² = 0,171
0
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
78
Month
Station Vazrazhdane
Poly. (Station Vazrazhdane)
Station OPS R1
Linear (Station OPS R1)
Station DOAS R2
Linear (Station OPS R1)
b)
Fig.5. Dinamic series and trend of nitrogen monoxide concentrations in Ruse: а)
maximum hour concentration; b) maximum day concentration
Association Scientific and Applied Research
87
The theoretical and empirical distributions are a more appropriate indicator
for the concentrations of nitrogen oxides in the air. They are displayed in Tables
5 and 6. Their analysis shows a number of regularities.
Firstly, the law of the maximum hourly average concentrations of nitrogen
dioxide at ROAS R2 is a triangular distribution with parameters min =
36.88328, m. likely = 109.31 and max = 167.1562, while at AMS Vazrazhdane
the distribution is normal with parameters m = 114.7051 and s = 27.99473.
Their limits are also similar – from 58.6 to 147.7 g/m3 at ROAS R2 and
68.7 and 160.8 g/m3 at AMS Vazrazhdane. The mean values are 102.37 and
114.71 g/m3, i.e. the difference is insignificant.
The standard deviation at ROAS R2 is 27.003 g/m3, therefore, the
deviation is high - 717.01 g/m3. At AMS Vazrazhdane they are the same 27.995 g/m3 and 772.67 g/m3.
The maximum concentration at ROAS R2 is 162.57 g/m3, while at AMS
Vazrazhdane it is 114.71 g/m3. Hence, they are under the limit for hourly
average concentration, which is 200 g/m3. There is no exceeding.
It would be natural for the daily average concentrations to follow similar
patterns. However, they will be strongly influenced by the validity of the
measurements.
The law for hourly average concentration distribution at station ROAS R2
is beta distribution with parameters a1=0.903212; a2=2.102014; min=16.13;
max=72.5177, while at AMS Vazrazhdane it is Weibull distribution with
parameters a=1.604527 and b=26.92485. The distributions also determine the
numerical values of the characteristics.
In the empirical distribution of maximum daily average concentrations of
nitrogen dioxide in the air in Ruse – measuring station ROAS R2 the range is
40.9554 g/m3, while at AMS Vazrazhdane - 49.1203 g/m3.
The numerical values of the other characteristics are similar. At measuring
station ROAS R2 the maximum value is 68.71 g/m3, the mean value is 33.294
g/m3, the mode - 24.933 g/m3 and the median - 30.315 g/m3. At AMS
Vazrazhdane respectively the maximum value is 93.06 g/m3, the mean value is
41.347 g/m3, the mode - 43.537 g/m3 and the median - 40.25 g/m3.
The standard deviations have insignificant differences – at ROAS R2 12.355 g/m3 and at AMS Vazrazhdane - 15.397 g/m3. The differences in the
variations are completely the same.
The asymmetries and the excesses of maximum daily average
concentrations are positive, which determines their location and shape.
We should note here once again that irrespective of the claims for mutual
dependencies between the hourly and daily average concentrations it should be
borne in mind the number of valid measurements. In no case should they be
considered equal to the number of days in the month or the year. If we actually
88
Association Scientific and Applied Research
take into account that number only then it will turn unnecessary to measure the
daily average concentrations.
Table 5
Theoretical and empirical distribution of nitrogen dioxide in the air in Ruse
– ROAS R2
Maximum hour concentration
Maximum day concentration
Parameters
Theoretica Empirical Parameters Theoretica Empirical
l model
distribu
l model
distribu
Triang
tion
Betta
tion
distribu
distribu
tion
tion
min
36.88328
a1
0.903212
m. likely
109.31
a2
2.102014
min
16.13
max
167.1562
max
72.5177
Left X
58.6
58.6
Left X
17.09
17.09
Left P
95.00%
90.00%
Left P
95.00%
96.67%
Right X
147.7
147.7
Right X
58.05
58.05
Right P
5.00%
5.00%
Right P
5.00%
3.33%
Diff. X
89.1418
89.1418
Diff. X
40.9554
40.9554
Diff. P
90.00%
85.00%
Diff. P
90.00%
93.33%
Minimum
36.883
49.24
Minimum
16.13
16.13
Maximum
167.16
168.22
Maximum
72.518
68.71
Mean
104.45
102.37
Mean
33.077
33.294
Mode
109.31
111.69
Mode
16.13
24.933
Median
105.57
107.3
Median
30.384
30.315
Std.
Std.
Deviation
26.647
27.003
Deviation
12.918
12.355
Variance
710.08
717.01
Variance
166.883
150.105
Skewness
-0.1088
-0.117
Skewness
0.6958
0.6832
Kurtosis
2.4
2.5622
Kurtosis
2.6061
2.8356
In this case it should be taken into account only the days with 75% valid
measurements in accordance with Regulation 12 [2]. That was the reason not to
consider the distributions of nitrogen dioxide concentrations measured at station
OPS R1 as the database is incomplete. The database of OPS R1 is complete
enough with the measurements of maximum hourly and daily average
concentrations of nitrogen monoxide.
The distributions of nitrogen monoxide at station OPS R1 are enlisted in
Table 7 and tables 8 and 9 show the measurements at stations ROAS R2 and
AMS Vazrazhdane.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
89
The maximum hourly average concentrations of nitrogen monoxide are
distributed according to rules with different parameters, although they have the
same theoretical distributions at the two stations: 1) at OPS R1 beta distribution
with parameters  1 =0.62034;  2 =3.4255; min =0.34; max =107.5838; 2) at ROAS
=16.6589 and
R2 logarithmic normal distribution with parameters
=12.64921; 3) at AMS Vazrazhdane beta distribution with parameters

 1 =0.7634;  2 =0.2281; min =17; max =906.6890.

With maximum daily average concentrations of nitrogen monoxide the
theoretical models are: 1) at OPS R1 beta distribution with parameters
 1 =0.2691;  2 =0.4799; min =0; max =12.96, 2) at ROAS R2 Weibull distribution
with parameters =3.3916 and =12.1015, 3) at AMS Vazrazhdane exponential
distribution with a parameter =31.26
Table 6
Theoretical and empirical distribution of nitrogen dioxide in the air in Ruse


– AMS Vazrazhdane

Maximum hour concentration
Maximum day concentration
Parameters
Theoreti
Empirical Parameters Theoretica Empirical
cal model
distribu
l model
distribu
Normal
tion
Weibul
tion
distribu
distribu
tion
tion
m
114.7051
a
1.604527
s
27.99473
b
26.92485
Left X
68.7
68.7
Left X
21.4
21.4
Left P
95.00%
97.18%
Left P
95.00%
94.37%
Right X
160.8
160.8
Right X
70.52
70.52
Right P
5.00%
5.63%
Right P
5.00%
4.23%
Diff. X
92.0945
92.0945
Diff. X
49.1203
49.1203
Diff. P
90.00%
91.55%
Diff. P
90.00%
90.14%
Minimum
-Infinity
54.96
Minimum
17.168
18.17
Maximum
+Infinity
211.11
Maximum
+Infinity
93.06
Mean
114.705
114.71
Mean
41.302
41.347
Mode
114.705
129.90
Mode
31.821
43.537
Median
114.705
112.09
Median
38.594
40.25
Std.
Std.
Deviation
27.995
27.995
Deviation
15.404
15.397
Variance
783.705
772.67
Variance
237.269
233.741
Skewness
0
0.673
Skewness
0.9573
1.0381
Kurtosis
3
4.0708
Kurtosis
4.0302
4.6058
The theoretical distributions make it possible to recalculate the
concentration values and to simulate all possible values in the range of validity
90
Association Scientific and Applied Research
of the laws of distribution. They account for specific regularities of
concentration fluctuations and they are criteria objective enough for them.
The empirical values are the base. The theoretical distributions recreate
them and are almost a copy of them. They are models which provide a number
of operational possibilities for determining the concentration values. Therefore,
the numerical characteristics vary in the same manner as the theoretical
distribution laws.
The analysis of Tables 7, 8 and 9 shows the following regularities in the
numerical values of the test characteristics.
First of all, the minimum and maximum values of hourly average
concentrations in the three measuring stations in Ruse are: at OPS R1 0.34000
and 76.480 g/m3; at ROAS R2 7.3100 and 82.790g/m3; at AMS Vazrazhdane
17.000 and 701.63 g/m3. In other words, the highest maximum hourly average
concentrations are measured at AMS Vazrazhdane.
Table 7
Theoretical and empirical distribution of nitrogen monoxide in the air in
Ruse – OPS R1
Maximum hour concentration
Parameters
Theoreti
Empirical
cal model
distribu
Betta
tion
distribu
tion
0.62034
1
3.4255
2
0.34
min
107.5838
max
Left X
0.56
0.56
Left P
5.00%
2.94%
Right X
53.13
53.13
Right P
95.00%
94.12%
Diff. X
52.5698
52.5698
Diff. P
90.00%
91.18%
Minimum
0.34000
0.34000
Maximum
107.58
76.480
Mean
16.783
16.811
Mode
0.34000
6.8600
Median
10.833
15.095
Std.
17.202
16.967
Deviation
Variance
295.90
279.410
Skewness
1.4300
1.6905
Kurtosis
4.7803
6.1658
Maximum day concentration
Parameters
Theoreti
Empirical
cal model
distribution
Betta
distribu
tion
0.2691
1
0.4799
2
0
min
12.96
max
Left X
0.0006
0.0006
Left P
5.00%
17.65%
Right X
12.80
12.80
Right P
95.00%
97.06%
Diff. X
12.8010
12.8010
Diff. P
90.00%
79.41%
Minimum
0.0000
0.0000
Maximum
12.960
12.960
Mean
4.6563
5.1835
Mode
0.0000
Median
2.7936
6.8150
Std.
4.7016
4.5493
Deviation
Variance
22.105
20.087
Skewness
0.5644
0.0706
Kurtosis
2.6061
2.8356
Association Scientific and Applied Research
91
There is a considerable difference in the numerical characteristics of
empirical distributions at the measuring stations, namely in: 1) range: OPS R1
52.5698 g/m3; ROAS R2 35.8775 g/m3; AMS Vazrazhdane 510.5321 g/m3;
2) mean value: OPS R1 16.811 g/m3; ROAS R2 20.578 g/m3; AMS
Vazrazhdane 196.20 g/m3; 3) mode: OPS R1 6.8600 g/m3; - ROAS R2
22.340 g/m3; AMS Vazrazhdane 39.340 g/m3; 4) median: - OPS R1 15.095
g/m3; ROAS R2 19.020 g/m3; AMS Vazrazhdane 149.42 g/m3; 5) standard
deviation: OPS R1 16.967 g/m3; ROAS R2 13.233 g/m3; AMS Vazrazhdane
165.89 g/m3; 6) variation: OPS R1 279.410 g/m3; ROAS R2 172.187 g/m3;
AMS Vazrazhdane 27136.74 g/m3.
Comparing these results we can conclude that there are no considerable
differences in hourly average concentrations of nitrogen monoxide at the first
two measuring stations – OPS R1 and ROAS R2. The maximum of the
maximum hourly average concentrations is with the measurements at AMS
Vazrazhdane.
Similar are the measurement results of maximum daily average
concentrations of nitrogen monoxide, which are also displayed in Tables 7, 8
and 9.
The theoretical distributions of maximum daily average concentrations are:
1) at OPS R1 beta distribution with parameters  1 =0.2691;  2 =0.4799; min =0;
=3.3916;
max =12.96; 2) at ROAS R2 Weibull distribution with parameters
=12.1015; 3) at AMS Vazrazhdane exponential distribution with a parameter
=31.2634.
Table 8

Theoretical and empirical distribution of nitrogen monoxide in the air in

Ruse – OPS R1

Maximum hour concentration
Maximum day concentration
Parameters
Theoreti
Empirical Parameters
Theoreti
Empirical
cal model
distribu
cal model
distribu
LogNor
tion
Weibul
tion
mal
distribu
distribu
tion
tion
16.6589
3.3916
12.64921
12.1015

Left X
8.28
8.28
Left X
3.67
3.67

Left P
5.00%
8.33%
Left P
5.00%
0.00%

Right X
44.15
44.15
Right X
15.35
15.35

Right P
95.00%
95.00%
Right P
95.00%
95.00%
Diff. X
35.8775
35.8775
Diff. X
11.6827
11.6827
Diff. P
90.00%
86.67%
Diff. P
90.00%
95.00%
92
Association Scientific and Applied Research
Minimum
3.9035
7.3100
Minimum
-1.3698
3.7500
Maximum
+Infinity
82.790
Maximum
+Infinity
16.220
Mean
20.562
20.578
Mean
9.5006
9.4513
Mode
12.319
22.340
Mode
9.5474
5.7600
Median
17.171
19.020
Median
9.4922
10.785
Std.
12.649
13.233
Std.
3.5387
3.7255
Deviation
Deviation
Variance
160.003
172.187
Variance
12.523
13.648
Skewness
2.7157
2.7887
Skewness
0.0531
-0.2098
Kurtosis
18.4710
12.8019
Kurtosis
2.7106
1.6663
The minimum and maximum values of daily average concentrations are: at
OPS R1 0.34000 and 76.480g/m3; at ROAS R2 7.3100 and 82.790 g/m3; at
AMS Vazrazhdane 17.000 and 701.63 g/m3. The other numerical values are as
follows: 1) range: - OPS R1 52.5698 g/m3; -ROAS R2 35.8775 g/m3; AMS Vazrazhdane 510.5321 g/m3; 2) mean value: - OPS R1 16.811 g/m3; ROAS R2 20.578 g/m3; - AMS Vazrazhdane 196.20 g/m3; 3) mode: - OPS
R1 6.8600 g/m3; -ROAS R2
22.340 g/m3; - AMS Vazrazhdane
39.3409.340 g/m3; 4) median: - OPS R1 15.095 g/m3; -ROAS R2 19.020
g/m3; - AMS Vazrazhdane 149.42 g/m3; 5) standard deviation: - OPS R1
16.967 g/m3; -ROAS R2 13.233 g/m3; - AMS Vazrazhdane 165.89 g/m3; 6)
variation: - OPS R1 279.410 g/m3; -ROAS R2 172.187 g/m3; - AMS
Vazrazhdane 27136.74 g/m3.
Table 9
Theoretical and empirical distribution of nitrogen monoxide in the air in
Ruse – AMS Vazrazhdane
Maximum hour concentration
Maximum day concentration
Parameters
Theoreti
Empirical Parameters Theoreti
Empirical
cal model
distribu
cal model distribution
Betta
tion
Exponen
distribu
tial
tion
distribu
tion
0.7634
31.2634
1
0.2281
2
17
min
906.6890
max

Left X
22.5
22.5
Left X
3.3
3.3
Left P
5.00%
1.39%
Left P
5.00%
4.17%
Right X
533.0
533.0
Right X
95.3
95.3
Right P
95.00%
94.44%
Right P
95.00%
94.44%
Association Scientific and Applied Research
93
Diff. X
510.5321
510.5321
Diff. X
92.0534
92.0534
Diff. P
90.00%
93.06%
Diff. P
90.00%
90.28%
Minimum
17.000
17.000
Minimum
1.6658
2.1000
Maximum
906.69
701.63
Maximum +Infinity
141.95
Mean
197.14
196.20
Mean
32.929
33.363
Mode
17.000
39.340
Mode
1.6658
4.3200
Median
149.43
149.42
Median
23.336
21.775
Std.
163.69
165.89
Std.
31.263
32.485
Deviation
Deviation
Variance
26792.84
27136.74
Variance
977.405
1040.60
Skewness
1.1210
1.2321
Skewness
2.0000
1.4234
Kurtosis
3.7204
4.1250
Kurtosis
9.0000
4.6220
We confirmed the ratios between the numerical values of empirical
distributions of different measuring stations, on the one hand, and to the hourly
average concentrations of nitrogen monoxide, on the other hand.
The asymmetry and the excess in all the values of distribution laws and the
empirical results are positive.
The dynamic series of maximum hourly and daily average concentrations
of nitrogen dioxide in the air in Silistra are presented in Figure 5. Their analysis
shows high variability. We found pronounced regularities. At ROAS S1 the
variability of the dynamic statistic series is higher than at ROAS S2. The values
change continuously during the observation period. There are no regions with
equal concentration values. The fluctuations are perennial, they do not refer to a
specific season. There is no full matching of the local maximums and
minimums. We find out that with daily average concentrations the fluctuation
between the dynamic series of the two measuring stations is higher.
Table 9
Theoretical and empirical distribution of nitrogen dioxide in the air in
Silistra - ROAS S1
Maximum hour concentration
Maximum day concentration
Parameters
Theoreti
Empirical Parameters
Theoreti
Empirical
cal model
distribu
cal model
distribu
Invariant
tion
Betta
tion
Gauss
distribu
distribu
tion
tion
305.9398
0.8693
1
2.5496
2

59943.840
9.27

min
9
56.1668
max
Left X
30.9
30.9
Left X
9.84
9.84
94
Association Scientific and Applied Research
Left P
Right X
Right P
Diff. X
Diff. P
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
Mode
Median
Std.
Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
5.00%
102.7
95.00%
71.7969
90.00%
-240.46
+Infinity
65.478
63.144
64.699
21.857
5.71%
102.7
97.14%
71.7969
91.43%
25.860
123.160
65.478
71.263
66.960
21.972
477.71
0.2143
3.0766
475.889
0.1104
2.3703
Left P
Right X
Right P
Diff. X
Diff. P
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
Mode
Median
Std.
Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
5.00%
40.52
95.00%
30.6742
90.00%
9.2700
56.167
21.195
9.2700
18.828
9.7145
2.86%
40.52
97.14%
30.6742
94.29%
9.2700
51.530
21.371
13.300
20.995
9.2550
94.371
0.8756
3.0362
84.431
0.7477
3.2437
Table 10
Theoretical and empirical distribution of nitrogen dioxide in the air in
Silistra - ROAS S2
Maximum hour concentration
Maximum day concentration
Parameters
Theoreti
Empirical Parameters
Theoreti
Empirical
cal model
distribu
cal model
distribu
Normal
tion
Invariant
tion
distribu
Gauss
tion
distribu
tion
46.8578
14.45624
16.5879
73.1754



Left X
19.57
19.57
Left X
9.13
9.13

Left P
5.00%
3.33%
Left P
5.00%
6.67%
Right X
74.14
74.14
Right X
29.25
29.25
Right P
95.00%
96.67%
Right P
95.00%
93.33%
Diff. X
54.5694
54.5694
Diff. X
20.1182
20.1182
Diff. P
90.00%
93.33%
Diff. P
90.00%
86.67%
Minimum
-Infinity
18.730
Minimum
2.5459
8.0800
Maximum
+Infinity
91.870
Maximum
+Infinity
31.910
Mean
46.858
46.858
Mean
17.002
17.002
Mode
46.858
58.720
Mode
13.340
18.250
Median
46.858
47.565
Median
15.718
16.045
Std.
16.588
16.588
Std.
6.4254
6.1741
Association Scientific and Applied Research
95
Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
275.159
0.0000
3.0000
270.573
0.1933
2.4924
Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
41.286
1.3334
5.9633
37.484
0.7365
2.8273
Table 11
Theoretical and empirical distribution of nitrogen monooxide in the air in
Silistra - ROAS S1
Maximum hour concentration
Maximum day concentration
Parameters
Theoreti
Theoreti
Empirical Parameters
Empirical
cal model
cal model
distribu
distribu
Normal
Betta
tion
tion
distribu
distribu
tion
tion

19.9688
a1
1.9004
a2
5.5346
8.0617
min
2.9044

max
27.3330
Left X
6.71
6.71
Left X
4.17
4.17
Left P
5.00%
1.43%
Left P
5.00%
2.86%
Right X
33.23
33.23
Right X
16.04
16.04
Right P
95.00%
95.71%
Right P
95.00%
95.71%
Diff. X
26.5209
26.5209
Diff. X
11.8742
11.8742
Diff. P
90.00%
94.29%
Diff. P
90.00%
92.86%
Minimum
-Infinity
5.5700
Minimum
2.9044
3.0800
Maximum
+Infinity
35.350
Maximum
27.333
20.470
Mean
19.9689
19.969
Mean
9.1485
9.1291
Mode
19.9689
17.323
Mode
6.9516
7.4800
Median
19.9689
18.975
Median
8.5943
8.2650
Std.
8.0618
8.0618
Std.
3.6689
3.7359
Deviation
Deviation
Variance
64.9923
64.064
Variance
13.461
13.757
Skewness
0.0000
0.1380
Skewness
0.6899
0.8541
Kurtosis
3.0000
2.0234
Kurtosis
3.0705
3.1719
96
Association Scientific and Applied Research
Table 12
Theoretical and empirical distribution of nitrogen monoxide in the air in
Silistra - ROAS S2
Maximum hour concentration
Maximum day concentration
Parameters
Theoreti
Empirical Parameters
Theoreti
Empirical
cal model
distribu
cal model
distribu
Pearson
tion
Invariant
tion
distribu
Gauss
tion
distribu
tion

1.1634
3.5543


6.6985

16.757
2.5900

Left X
10
10
Left X
5.7
5.7
Left P
5.00%
3.33%
Left P
5.00%
5.00%
Right X
203
203
Right X
24.4
24.4
Right P
95.00%
95.00%
Right P
95.00%
95.00%
Diff. X
192.9238
192.9238
Diff. X
18.7289
18.7289
Diff. P
90.00%
91.67%
Diff. P
90.00%
90.00%
Minimum
4.8122
7.3700
Minimum
3.5543
4.2900
Maximum
+Infinity
912.30
Maximum
+Infinity
265.88
Mean
107.328
67.329
Mean
12.2288
16.729
Mode
12.558
16.227
Mode
8.4457
10.070
Median
24.476
24.155
Median
10.2529
10.600
Std.
12.2451
152.53
Std.
9.5205
35.916
Deviation
Deviation
Variance
146.12
22876.21
Variance
90.6402
1268.48
Skewness
3.2617
4.4318
Skewness
6.1341
6.1301
Kurtosis
16.1231
22.5685
Kurtosis
23.4211
41.1992
The trend of the hourly average concentrations of nitrogen dioxide is a
polynomial of third degree at ROAS S1 and quadratic polynomial at ROAS S2.
The correlation coefficients are insignificant, which is due to the high
concentration fluctuation in time. The trend models of daily average
concentrations are analogous. They are polynomials of second degree. At ROAS
S2 the correlation coefficient is 0.0307 and at ROAS S1 it is 0.0670.
The trend model of hourly average concentrations of nitrogen monoxide at
ROAS S1 is y = -0.0213x + 20.726 and at ROAS S2 it is y = 0.0502x2 - 1.9689x
+
38.932.
The
correlation
coefficients
are
respectively
0.275 and 0.0029. We did not find any regularities of concentration values
measured at ROAS S2. At ROAS S1 the fluctuations of hourly average
concentrations is cyclic. Full related regularities are found with daily average
concentrations of nitrogen monoxide. Regression equations of the trends are y=0.0598x+11.253 at ROAS S1 and y=0.4294x+1.1307 at ROAS S2. The
correlation coefficient R² at the first measuring station is 0.1062 and at the
second - 0.1413.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
97
The theoretical and empirical distributions of maximum concentrations of
nitrogen dioxide in the air in Silistra – measuring station ROAS S1 are displayed
in Table 10. The theoretical model of maximum hourly average concentration is
an invariant Gauss distribution with parameters =305.9398 and  =59943.8409,
while of maximum daily average concentration – beta distribution with
parameters  1 =0.8693;  2 =2.5496, min =9.27, max =56.1668.
140
Concentration NO2, µg/m3
120
100
80
y = -0,0002x3 + 0,0311x2 - 1,4252x + 82,995
R² = 0,0515
60
40
20
y = 0,0012x2 - 0,3562x + 56,565
R² = 0,0866
0
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
Month
Station DOAS S1
Station DOAS S2
Poly. (Station DOAS S1)
а)
98
Association Scientific and Applied Research
Poly. (Station DOAS S2)
78
55
50
45
Concentration NO2, µg/m3
40
35
30
y = 0,002x2 - 0,2103x + 25,572
R² = 0,0307
25
20
15
10
y = -0,0021x2 + 0,0436x + 18,274
R² = 0,067
5
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
Month
Station DOAS S1
Station DOAS S2
Poly. (Station DOAS S1)
Poly. (Station DOAS S2)
b)
Fig.6. Dinamic series and trend of nitro dioxide concentrations in Silistra: а)
maximum hour concentration; б) maximum day concentration
Concentration NO, µg/m3
250
200
y = 0,0502x2 - 1,9689x + 38,932
R² = 0,275
150
100
50
y = -0,0213x + 20,726
R² = 0,0029
0
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
78
Month
Station DOAS S1
Station DOAS S2
Linear (Station DOAS S1)
Poly. (Station DOAS S2)
а)
Association Scientific and Applied Research
99
Concentration NO, µg/m
120
100
80
60
40
y = 0,4294x + 1,1307
R² = 0,1413
y = -0,0598x + 11,253
R² = 0,1062
20
0
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
Month
Station DOAS S1
Station DOAS S2
Linear (Station DOAS S1)
Linear (Station DOAS S2)
b)
Фиг.7. Dinamic series and trend of nitro monooxide concentrations in Silistra:
а) maximum hour concentration; б) maximum day concentration
There is a wide range of fluctuation of the empirical values of hourly
average concentration. The left limit is 30.9 g/m3, the right limit is 102.7 g/m3
and the range - 71.7969 g/m3. The maximum daily average concentration has
significantly lower values of fluctuation – the left limit is 9.84 g/m3, the right
limit is 40.52 g/m3 and the range - 30.6742 g/m3. The maximum value of
hourly average concentrations is 123.160 g/m3, while of the daily average
concentrations it is 51.530 g/m3. We observe similar ratio with the mean values
of empirical distributions, respectively 65.478 g/m3 and 21.371 g/m3. This
pattern remains to some extent also with the distribution mode and median,
irrespective of the different theoretical laws of distribution.
With maximum hourly average concentrations the standard deviation and
variation are high -21.972 g/m3 and 475.889 g/m3, which is an indicator of
considerable fluctuation of their values. With daily average concentration they
are 9.2550 g/m3 and 84.431 g/m3.
The indicators of asymmetry and the degree of pointedness are positive.
The theoretical and the empirical distribution are with left orientation and more
pointed compared to the normal distribution.
The theoretical and the empirical distributions of the maximum
concentrations of nitrogen dioxide in the air in Silistra – measuring station
100
Association Scientific and Applied Research
ROAS S2 are shown in Table 11. The theoretical model of hourly average
concentrations has normal distribution with parameters
=46.8578 and
=16.5879, while daily average concentrations have invariant Gauss
distribution with =14.4562 and  =73.1754. The range of the hourly average

concentrations is wider - 54.5694 g/m3 compared to the daily average

concentrations - 20.1182 g/m3. The maximum value of the hourly average
concentration is more than three times higher than the daily value. The mean
value is 46.858 g/m3 and respectively 17.002 g/m3. There is a considerable
difference between the standard deviations 16.588 g/m3 respectively 6.1741
g/m3 and variations 270.573 g/m3 and 37.484 g/m3. Similarly to the other
distribution values the asymmetry and the excess are greater than zero.
The ratios mentioned between the concentrations of nitrogen dioxide at the
two measuring stations in Silistra are preserved with the nitrogen monoxide.
Naturally, their limits are different. At ROAS S1 the limits of the hourly average
concentrations are 6.71 and 33.23 g/m3 and of the daily average concentrations
- 4.17 and 16.04 g/m3. The maximum value respectively is 35.350 g/m3 and
20.470 g/m3. The standard deviations are very small 8.0618 g/m3 3.7359g/m3. Naturally, small variations correspond to them. Significant
differences in the numerical values of nitrogen monoxide concentrations
measured at ROAS S2 are not found. Considerably high are the standard
deviation and variation of the maximum daily average concentrations - 35.916
g/m3 and 1268.48 g/m3.
The annual average concentrations are calculated. They are calculated on
the base of the maximum daily average concentrations. The nitrogen dioxide
concentrations per year are as follows. 1) Nikopol: 2007 year -24.12 g/m3,
2008 year – 18.62 g/m3, 2009 year – 14.88 g/m3, 2010 year – 16.14 g/m3,
2011 year – 18.89 g/m3, 2012 year – 14.29 g/m3, 2013 г. – 17.88 g/m3; 2)
Svishtov: 2007 year – 24.71 g/m3, 2008 year – 13.27 g/m3, 2009 year – 20.03
g/m3, 2010 year – 16.25 g/m3, 2011 year – 13.82 g/m3, 2012 year – 19.82
g/m3, 2013 year – 16.27 g/m3; 3) Ruse OPS R1: 2007 year – 22.13 g/m3,
2008 year – 19.25 g/m3, 2009 year – 22.02 g/m3, 2010 year – 17.29 g/m3,
2011 year – 22.11 g/m3, 2012 year – 16.27 g/m3, 2013 year – 16.19 g/m3; 4)
Ruse ROAS R2: 2007 year – 21.22 g/m3, 2008 year – 22.17 g/m3, 2009 year
– 19.25 g/m3, 2010 year – 16.29 g/m3, 2011 year – 20.02 g/m3, 2012 year –
16.24 g/m3, 2013 year – 14.02 g/m3; 4) Ruse AIS “Vazrazhdane”: 2007 year
– 18.27 g/m3, 2008 year – 20.02 g/m3, 2009 year – 22.01 g/m3, 2010 year –
17.25 g/m3, 2011 year – 13.82 g/m3, 2012 year – 17.03 g/m3, 2013 year –
14.11g/m3;5) Silistra ROAS S1: 2007 year - 17.22 g/m3, 2008 year – 20.11
g/m3, 2009 year – 14.82 g/m3, 2010 year – 16.37 g/m3, 2011 year – 18.42
g/m3, 2012 year – 15.72 g/m3, 2013 year – 14.25 g/m3; 6) Silistra ROAS S2:
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2007 year – 19.55 g/m3, 2008 year – 14.86 g/m3, 2009 year – 16.28 g/m3,
2010 year – 17.88 g/m3, 2011 year – 19.03 g/m3, 2012 year – 14.92 g/m3,
2013 year – 17.33 g/m3.
Summarizing the abovementioned the following conclusions can be made.
Statistical models are built of the regularities of nitrogen dioxide and
nitrogen monoxide pollution of the air along the Bulgarian bank of the Danube
river. They are theoretically significant and practically applicable in the
management of the border environmental safety.
The indicators chosen are the maximum hourly, daily and annual average
concentrations. They present fully and authentically the pollution degree and its
changes in a time function.
We made representative data excerpts of the air pollution in Nikopol,
Svishtov, Ruse and Silistra. We considered the measurements made at seven
measuring stations.
The database is computer processed with licensed software.
We obtained dynamic series and regression models of nitrogen dioxide and
nitrogen monoxide concentrations.
We calculated the theoretical and empirical distributions of maximum
hourly and daily average concentrations at the measuring stations.
The theoretical models allow us to simulate the concentration values in the
studied ranges of change via the method of Monte Carlo and/or Latin hyper
club.
The results can justify management decisions about border environmental
safety.
The monitoring of air quality at border regions widens and becomes more
detailed.
[1].
[2].
[3].
[4].
102
REFERENCES
Vladimirov, L. Management of cross-border environmental security.
Thesis for acquiring the academic degree "Doctor of Science". Sofia,
Rakovsky Military academy, 2012.
Regulation 12/15 July 2010 about the limits of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen
dioxide, fine particles of dust, lead, benzene, carbon monoxide, and ozone
in the air. State gazette 58 / 2010.
Todorova, M. Evaluation of the environmental security of cross-border
dangerous activities. PhD thesis. Ruse, Angel Kanchev University of Ruse,
2014.
Vladimirov, L., M. Todorova. Risks and threats for cross-border
environment in extreme solutions. IN: Jubilee International Congress
Science, education, technologies "40 Years Bulgaria – Space country",
Varna, 2012, pp.386-394, ISBN 978-954-577-636-6.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
JOURNAL SCIENCE EDUCATION INNOVATION , VOL. 2. 2014
Association Scientific and Applied Research
International Journal
Original Contribution
ISSN 1314-9784
INTERDISCIPLINARY LECTURES ON POLYMER MATERIAL
SCIENCE IN THE EDUCATIONAL SUBJECTS
Valentin Velev*, Anton Popov, Nikola Todorov
*KONSTANTIN PRESLAVSKY UNIVERSITY OF SHUMEN, 9700,
SHUMEN, BULGARIA
UNIVERSITY “PROF. DR. ASSEN ZLATAROV” – BURGAS, 8000,
BURGAS, BULGARIA
ABSTRACT: The specific properties of polymer materials make them widely used in
various areas such as electronics, production of machine elements in aviation and space
technology, automotive, textile and food industry. The polymer materials have a special place
also in the medicine. In the proposed work, we express a reasoned opinion on the
introduction of elements of the polymer material science in the education in some of the
subjects for the students of the Faculty of natural sciences at the Konstantin Preslavsky
University of Shumen.
KEY WORDS: polymer materials, structure, properties, polymer physics, education.
Polymers are substances possessing specific properties which are
conditioned by their molecular structure. There are high-molecular compounds
which are constructed of multiple kinds of repeating structural units of the same
chemical composition [1]. According to their origin polymers are divided into
natural – proteins, hydrocarbons, rubber, resins, graphite, diamond etc., and
synthetic – synthesized in various ways from low-molecular compounds. The
polymer state of matter is characterized by certain peculiarities of its structure
and properties which makes it significantly different from the low-molecular
compounds.
One of the main characteristics of polymers is the flexibility of the
macromolecules due to the possibility that some of their parts rotate around the
chemical bonds. The internal rotation of macromolecules is determined by the
flexibility of the polymer chains. Kuhn has shown [2] that from a theoretical
point of view, polymer chains can exist in a huge number of conformations with
virtually equal energies. Polymer molecules have two extreme forms of
Association Scientific and Applied Research
103
existence – drawn in a chain and folded in a globule called molecular statistical
globe. The size and shape of the statistical globe depend on the chemical
composition and structure of the macromolecule. The properties of polymers
depend not only on the flexibility and chemical composition, but also on the
mutual disposition of macromolecules, i.e. the structure of the polymer matter
that is determined by the flexibility of chains and the energy of intermolecular
interaction. Apart from the chemical structure, the properties and structure
formation in polymers depend on the external conditions that form super
molecular structural formations. Single macromolecules and aggregates
consisting of multiple molecules might exist depending on the ratio between the
forces of intramolecular and intermolecular interactions as well as depending on
the state of the polymer (solid, melt or solution).Such formations are called
super molecular polymer structures. Due to the complex structure of
macromolecules, the structure formation in polymers radically differs from the
structure formation in low-molecular compounds. The macromolecular segment
and the molecule are the basic structural elements of polymer matter. Therefore,
upon characterization of the polymer structural formations it is necessary to take
into consideration according to which structural element the structure is
evaluated. It is possible that in polymer system to exist a long order in respect of
the chain segments and to be absent such order for the macromolecules.
There are two basic types of primary structural aggregates – globular and
linear. On their basis and depending on the temperature and the properties of the
polymer, more complex super molecular formations might arise. One
macromolecule can simultaneously participate in two or more supramolecular
formations, while the parts of the same molecule, which connect these elements,
remain in the unordered zones of the matter. The formation of super molecular
structures in which the globule is independent structural element is a rare
phenomenon and the formations are unstable and easily degradable. Unlike
globules, the linear structural elements, at comparatively low temperatures, can
form larger aggregate formations called fibrils.
Similar formations with high degree of orderliness can occur upon cooling
of the polymer melt accompanied by orientating mechanical impact on the
formation process and the subsequent fiber drawing [2, 3]. The degree of
orderliness and the packing density of such fibrils strongly influence the
physical properties of polymer materials. The above structures most frequently
occur in amorphous polymers which are characterized by low degree of
orderliness. This means that the polymers are substances having high degree of
orderliness, both in the amorphous and in the crystalline state. Amorphous
polymers may exist in liquid and solid physical condition. The amorphous phase
state of polymers is characterized by the absence of long range order, presence
of close order with fluctuation nature which stability depends on the physical
condition of matter, isotropy of the physical properties and absence of precisely
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determined melting temperature. Another feature of the polymers is that, unlike
the low molecular compounds, they exist not only in aggregate and phase
conditions but also in the so called relaxation conditions, namely glassy state,
rubbery state and viscous liquid. The transition of the polymer from given
relaxation state to another is associated with a change in a number of physical
properties. The transitions in polymers from one relaxation state to another can
be determined by means of thermo mechanical process which consists of
investigation of the dependence of the polymer deformation on the temperature.
The curves describing these dependencies are called thermo mechanical curves.
The thermo mechanical curve can be divided into three parts which correspond
to the three relaxation conditions of the amorphous polymers. The transition of
the polymer matter from one state to another is realized in a certain temperature
range. The temperature range of glass transition is characterized by glass
transition temperature (Tg), and the fluid temperature range – by fluid
temperature (Tf). The lowest temperature part of the curve describes the polymer
deformation in the interval from the brittleness temperature (Tе) (below this
temperature the object is destroyed without preliminary deformation) to the
temperature of glass transition. The deformation in this area is small and it has
mainly elastic nature. This is the glassy state of the polymer in which it holds
behavior of solid. The minor deformations in the glassy state can be explained
by the large values of the forces of intermolecular and intramolecular reaction
and the limited possibilities for thermal movement of the macromolecules. The
polymer deformation rapidly increases at the glass transition temperature. This
is due to the increase of the energy of thermal motion which leads to defrosting
of the segment mobility of macromolecules, also know as -transition of the
polymer [4, 5]. The part of the thermo mechanical curve from the vitrification
temperature to the fluid temperature corresponds to the high elastic state of the
polymer. The polymer deformations in this area are high, reversible and slightly
depend on the temperature.
At temperatures close to the fluid temperature the deformations in the
polymer increase and from elastic they turn into plastic, i.e. the polymer passes
from high elastic into viscous-fluid state. By sequentially movement of the
segments, the macromolecules move about one another, and in this manner the
polymer flows as highly viscous fluid. Polymers like the low molecular
compounds can crystallize both from melt and from solution. The crystalline
polymers possess a complex structure. The possibility of crystal formation on
the basis of globules is low. This is possible in terms of mono dispersity of
globules which is observed in natural polymers. Crystal formations with a high
level of perfection are formed on the basis of linear structural entities. The
flexible macromolecules can fold and form aggregates with a proper structure
from the parallel arranged parts of the molecules.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
105
The segments fixing during the crystallization process is accompanied by
the release of some heat Hc and change in the entropy of the system with Sc.
Due to the fact that the fixing of the separate macromolecular segments occurs
consecutively, the crystallization of the polymer is characterized by a set of
ratios Hc/Sc = Tc, and thus with a range of melting temperatures of the
crystalline forms. This means that the phase transitions accompanied by heat
exchange in the polymers cannot run at a specified temperature, but within a
temperature interval.
Due to the folding of macromolecules are formed mono- or polymolecular
entities. These structural entities are arranged parallel to one another and
depending on their size form needle-shaped, fibrillar or lamellar structural
elements. These formations are the basis for the growth of crystals with more
complex structure - spherulites and lamella crystals. Spherulites are the most
common supramolecular formations. The small spherulites can group in striplike structures, which can arrange in plates. There are two types of spherulites –
radial and circular. In the radial spherulites the fibrils are joined in the center,
and in the circular spherulites they are disposed along a circumference around
the center.
Another important feature of the polymer units is that their structure
includes both amorphous and crystalline phase and the ratio between them has a
strong influence on the physical properties of the polymer products. It should be
noted that a clear line between the amorphous and crystalline areas of a polymer
unit cannot be drawn. Regardless of the existing models related to the phase
states of the polymer matter, the intensive experimental research in this area
continues [2, 6], including with the participation of the authors of this
communication [7, 8].
Some important specific properties of polymers considered up to now,
make them materials widely used in electronics, mechanical engineering, in the
manufacture of aerospace equipment, aviation, automotive and textile industries,
in everyday life, as in all other spheres of modern life. The polymer materials
take a special place in medicine, where they are used as consumables, and in the
production of medical equipment and implants [9, 10]. It is necessary to
emphasize the application of polymers in the so called high technologies. At the
same time, by means of calorimetric [8] optical [2], and other physical methods
[2, 7], the interactions between the technological conditions of polymer
processing, the structure and the physical properties of the end products are
investigated.
The basic features and properties of polymers which have been regarded
above and the spheres of their application are a reasonable prerequisite for
introducing elements of polymer physics in some of the subjects for the students
of the Faculty of natural sciences at the Konstantin Preslavsky University of
Shumen. In relation to the polymer physics, it would be appropriate eight to ten
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lectures and two laboratory exercises in condensed matter physics as well as
specialized course related to the application of polymers in medicine for the
master’s degree of medical physics to be assigned. Within the lectures provided
for studying the physical properties of polymers, the basic matters in the sphere
of polymer physics should be considered.
The inclusion of elements of polymer physics in the above mentioned
subjects will broaden the students’ knowledge in this modern, intensively
developing field of physics associated with the development of new materials
and technologies, and as a result will contribute to increasing the quality of
education of the students who graduate from the Physics Department at the
Konstantin Preslavsky University of Shumen.
References
[1] Wunderlich B., Macromolecular Physics, Vol. 3, 488, Academic Press, 1984.
[2] Fakirov St. (Ed.), Oriented Polymer Materials, Hüthig & Wepf,
Basel/Heidelberg, 450, 1996.
3
[ ] Ziabicki A., Kawai H., High-Speed Fiber Spinning: Science and Engineering
Aspects, Krieger Pub Co, 586, 1991.
4
[ ] Wunderlich B., The Solid State of Semicrystalline Macromolecules, the First
Nanophase Material for Industry – Temperature-modulated Calorimetry, the
First experimental Method to Study the Phase-behavior of Polymeric
Nanophases, “Polymerwerkstoffe 2002”, 15-23, 2002.
5
[ ] Bershtein V. A., Egorov V. M., Differential Scanning Calorimetry of
Polymers, Ellis Horwood Limited, 256, 1994.
6
[ ] Todorov L. V., Viana J. C., Structure evolution of PET under step-wise and
continuous deformation modes: the effect of stress relaxation on the straininduced morphology, International J. Material Forming, 1, 661-665, 2008.
7
[ ] Velev V., Popov A., Bogdanov B., Heat – mechanically induced structure
development in undrawn polyester fibers, “Thermodynamics/Book 4”, ISBN
978-953-307-283-8, Chapter 5, 89-114, 2011.
8
[ ] Velev V., Betchev Ch. D., Calorimeter for simultaneous studies of oriented
polymers subjected to thermal and mechanical treatments, Polymer Testing,
19, 281-288, 2000.
9
[ ] Totev Hr. The value of the securities (Bonds and shares), Journal science
education innovation, 2013, Vol.1, 144-152.
10
[ ] Vibhor J., Analysis of Structural Development During Superdrawing of
Poly(ethylene terephthalate) Fibers. A Thesis Presented to The Academic
Faculty, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2009.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
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JOURNAL SCIENCE EDUCATION INNOVATION , VOL. 2. 2014
Association Scientific and Applied Research
International Journal
Original Contribution
ISSN 1314-9784
WAXS STUDIES OF THE STRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
IN POLY (ETHYLENE TEREPHTHALATE) FIBERS CAUSED BY
PROTON BEAM IRRADIATION
Valentin Velev1, Anton Popov2, Nina Arhangelova1, Pencho Kyurkchiev1,
Hristo Hristov1, Paolo Sartori3, Michele Bello3, Nikolay Uzunov1,3
1
2
KONSTANTIN PRESLAVSKY UNIVERSITY, 9700, SHUMEN, BULGARIA
UNIVERSITY "PROF. DR. ASSEN ZLATAROV" – BURGAS, 8000, BURGAS, BULGARIA
3
INFN, NATIONAL LABORATORIES OF LEGNARO, LEGNARO (PADUA), ITALY
ABSTRACT: Structural changes in partially crystalline poly(ethylene terephthalate)
(PET) filaments caused by proton beam irradiation has been investigated using a wide-angle
X-ray scattering (WAXS). Experimental data concerning the influence of the exposure dose
and the irradiation conditions in the structure changes of the studied objects have been
obtained. Super molecular structural changes of the irradiated polyethylene terephthalate
fibers have been analyzed. It is suggested that the basic modifying and structuring effects of
the proton irradiation are ionization, radicalization, skeletal destructions and the
macromolecular crosslinking.
KEY WORDS: poly (ethylene terephthalate), filaments, proton beam, irradiation, WAXS,
structure development mechanism.
1. Introduction
It is known that the properties of the oriented polymer systems strongly
depend on their super molecular structure.
Wider application and therefore higher production of flexible chain fiber
forming polymers, and especially poly (ethylene terephthalate) (PET) is due to
the possibility of different ways for modification to obtain materials with
improved properties. Moreover, PET can easily turn into uni- and biaxial
oriented state with different qualitative properties. One of the possibility for
polymer structure modification is using of ionizing radiation and it is an object
of great interest in the recent years [1, 2]. It is established that the irradiated
polymers possess improved tensile and yield strength, increased rigidity, higher
melting temperature, etc. [3, 4].
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The study of polymers using ionizing radiations is widespread in the
polymer technology, operation and scientific research [1-3, 5, 6]. Due to the
effect on the molecular interactions the synthetic polymers are modified by
proton irradiation [3, 5, 7]. Proton radiation causes ionization along the track in
the substance that passes across. Poly (ethylene terephthalate) (PET) is a
crystallizable thermoplastic polymer widely used in many technological and
industrial areas in the form of fibers, films, construction details, surgical
polymeric textiles, composites, nanocomposites, conducting polymers, electro
active polymers, etc. The applications of PET are based on its relatively high
glass transition temperature, low crystallization rate, high mechanical strength
and high resistance to chemical influences.
It is very important from technological and scientific point of view to
investigate the role of proton irradiation on the structure and properties of
undrawn amorphous uniaxially oriented PET [1-4].
The present experiment is devoted to study the effect of proton irradiation
on over molecular structural organization of partially crystalline PET fibers.
2. Materials
PET partially crystalline as-spun yarns produced from industrial
installation of the company "Furnet" (France) were used as precursor samples.
The initial basic characteristics of the studied PET fibers were as follows:
speed of fibrillate 2805 m/min;
number of single fibers in the complex filament 32;
diameter of a single fiber 13 m ;
degree of crystallinity  = 28,8 %;
birefringence n.103 = 5,35.
3. Methods
3.1. Irradiation of the PET samples with protons
Fibres of poly (ethylene terephthalate) have been attached in the form of a
flat surface very close each other thus forming a layer with small thickness with
respect to the range of the protons used for the irradiation. Plates with the
samples were mounted on the outside wall of a circular holder (Fig. 1). Samples
were irradiated with protons by the accelerator facilities AN 2000 at the
National Laboratories of Legnaro, INFN, Italy.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
109
Fig. 1. The circular holder and attached to it plates with the irradiated PET
filaments.
Proton beams with energy of 2MeV obtained using Van de Graaff
accelerator have been used to irradiate the polymers’ samples. The proton beam
passed through a beam diffuser and was collimated to a diameter of 4 mm. The
collimated beam passed through the samples and was collected for measuring of
the total beam charge. The beam current was kept as low as 5 nA to prevent the
samples overheating. For each sample the total beam charge was measured and
the number of protons irradiated the sample was calculated.
3.2. Wide-angle X-ray scattering
In order to establish the precursor structure, the non-irradiated fibers was
studied by wide- angle X-ray scattering (WAXS) using a diffractometer HZG 4
(Freiberger Präzisionsmechanik, Germany) and Ni-filtered Cu K radiation with
a wavelength of 1,5418 Å. Equatorial scattering was monitored in transmission
mode.
The structural changes of the irradiated PET objects were studied by
wide-angle X-ray scattering Diffractometer URD - 6 (under license of SIEMES)
of the company "Freiberger Präzisionsmechanik" (Freiburg im Breisgau, BadenWürttemberg, Germany). Used is -filtered with Ni-filter Cu K radiation with a
wavelength of  = 1,5418 Å.
4. Results and Discuss
Most suitable for the packing density characterization of the structural elements
on the atomic-molecular level are the X-ray diffraction methods, due to the
precise geometric and structural sensitivity of the angular deviation of the
diffraction reflections. Very good knowledge of the PET crystallography [8],
allows establishing of adequate links between the alteration in the geometry of
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
the intensity distribution of the diffracted X-ray radiation and the repacking of
the macromolecular chain segments in the volume of the crystal polymer phase,
the transient zones of the crystallites and its mesophases. Furthermore, the
changes in the intensity ratios, profile characteristics and angular deviation of
the diffraction reflections provide information concerning to the crystalline
phase perfection.
Chosen relatively low power proton radiation exclude the possibility of
recrystallizations changes due to possibly radiation overheating and implies
mainly structure determining influence of the alternative cross-linking and
destructive processes that alter the molecular mass of the polymer.
The observed impact of the proton irradiation on the geometry of the
intensity distribution of x-ray diffraction patterns of the object is expressed in
the intensity angular deviations in the range from 10 02 to 30 02.
Intensity distribution of the X-ray radiation in the diffraction patterns of the
non-irradiated (Fig. 2) and proton irradiated for 20 s fibers (Fig. 3) shows a
structure similar to the PET amorphous state like its super cooled melt.
Meanwhile as seen from figure 3 the diffractogram obtained at 20 s proton
irradiation is characterized by a significant higher intensity increases in the
angular interval 21 02θ  27 02θ. This is effect that upon irradiation of a similar
PET sample was observed at 2040 s irradiation [7].
Fig.2.WAXS of non-irradiated partially crystalline PET fibers.
These are the peaks from the group -111, 1-10, 011, 1-12, 100, 1-11. The
intensity increase in the positions of peaks 110 and 100 implies improving of
specific mesophases with generation of advanced crystalline structure of PET.
Increasing the exposure to proton irradiation up to 40 s (Fig. 3) indicates a total
increase of the diffraction intensity of the studied PET objects in the typical
angular range 16 02θ  28 02θ. Interval with increased intensity is divided into
sub-areas typical for the main multiple peaks of PET.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
111
It is observed deviation of the intensity distribution of the x-ray diffraction
patterns to the left to the small diffraction angles, respectively to the large
distance in the periodicity in the long range order. This may mean increasing the
average statistical distance between the scattering radiation macromolecular
chain segments.
In addition to this left-sided X-ray diffraction deviation of the center of
gravity of the multiple X-ray halo is also observed occurrence of infrastructure
as well as overall deformation of the left slope.
Probable reason for the effect is the increase and alignment of the folds
width in the energetically stable folded configuration in the triclinic crystal PET
cell in its crystal phase.
The largest used exposure of 2040 s which is two orders of magnitude
different from the smallest (20 s) amplifies mainly the diffraction reflections
010, 1-10 and 100 and the angular intervals around them. The intensity
increasing in the angular intervals around the reflections 010, 1-10 and 100
means that there is an exchange of packaging quality of macromolecular chain
segments from mesophases close to the crystalline phase and from the
crystalline phase of the PET. This intermediate phase between improved
mesophases and highly defective low perfect mesophases is the mixture, the
blank of which grows and progresses the perfect crystalline phase of PET. At
2040
s
exposure priority of the intensity have the reflections in the multiplet situated in
the angular interval from 2122 02 to 2425 02 which is evidence of the
arrangement improvement of the macromolecular chain segments.
Inensity, rel. units
1,0
irr = 2040 s
0,8
0,6
irr = 40 s
0,4
0,2
irr = 20 s
0,0
10
15
20
Scattering angle 2
25
30
0
Fig. 3.WAXS curves of PET fibers irradiated with protons for 20, 40 and 2040 s.
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
5. Conclusions
In conclusion, it can be summarized that the proton irradiation has a major
influence on the structural reorganization of partially crystalline PET in the solid
phase state.
Depending on the studied objects, and the conditions of the X-ray
diffraction experiments, there was observed a significant redistribution of the
intensity of the diffracted X-ray radiation.
Most likely, the observed effects are the result of repackaging of the PET
chain segments on atomic - molecular, crystallographic level.
It can be assumed that the basic structuring impact have the destructive
and the crosslinking action of the radiation.
The most likely mechanism is associated with the folding of the released
segmental ends of the broken segments on themselves or on suitable neighbors.
Acknowledgment
Part of the present work has been supported by Grant № РД-08226/12.03.2104 from Konstantin Preslavsky University, Shumen.
[1].
[2].
[3].
[4].
[5].
[6].
[7].
[8].
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Mallick B., Patel T., Behera R. C., Sarangi S. N., Sahu S.N.,Choudhury R.
K., Microstrain Section B: Beam Interactions with Materials and Atoms,
248, 2, 305 – 310, 2006;
Tripathy S. P., Mishra R., Dwivedi K. K., Khating D. T.,Ghosh S., Fink D.,
Radiation Effects and Defects in Solids, 157, 4, 1, 1-11 2002;
Mishra R., Tripathy S. P., Sinha D., Dwivedi K.K., Ghosh S.,
KhathingD.T., Muller M., Fink D., Chung W.H., Nucl. Instr. and Meth. B
168, 59, 2000;
Alger R. S., in: David Fax, M.M. Labes, A. Weissberger (Eds.),
Radiation Effects in Polymers: Physics and Chemistry of the Organic Solid
State, Vol. III, John Wiley and Sons Inc., New York, 1965, p. 830;
Martinez-Pardo M. E., Cardoso J., Vazquez H., Aguilar M., Nucl. Instr.
and Meth. B 140, 325, 1998;
Lounis-Mokrani Z., Badreddine A., Mebhah D., Imatoukene D., Fromm
M., Allab M., Radiation Measurements, 43, 41-47, 2008;
Velev V., Popov A., Arhangelova N., Kyurkchiev P., Hristov H., Bello M.,
Moschini G., Uzunov N., Journal Scientific and Applied Research, 2014,
in press;
Kilian et. Al, Koll. Zeitschrift, 172 (2), 166, 1960.
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JOURNAL SCIENCE EDUCATION INNOVATION , VOL. 2. 2014
Association Scientific and Applied Research
International Journal
Original Contribution
ISSN 1314-9784
SPIN-ORBIT INTERACTION IN AQUEOUS AND ALCOHOLIC
SOLUTIONS OF FeCl3.6H2O
Petya Petkova1, Petko Vasilev1, Mustafa Mustafa1, Veselin Nedkov2,
Jordanka Tacheva1
1
2
SHUMEN UNIVERSITY “KONSTANTIN PRESLAVSKY”,
115 UNIVERSITETSKA STREET, 9712 SHUMEN,
E-mail: [email protected]
FACULTY OF CHEMISTRY AND PHARMACY, SOFIA UNIVERSITY “ST. KLIMENT
OHRIDSKI”, 1 JAMES BOUCHER BLVD., 1164 SOFIA
Abstract: The aqueous and alcoholic solutions of FeCl3.6H2O are investigated in this
work. In this connection, the absorption spectra of these solutions are measured in the
spectral region 1.3 – 2.2eV. The exchange integrals for [Fe(H2O)6]3+and [Fe(OH)4] complexes are calculated. The oscillator strength and the transition moment of the impurity
band are also determined for these two complexes.
Key words: 3d ions, spin-orbit interaction, exchange integrals, oscillator strength
INTRODUCTION
The aqueous and alcoholic solutions of 3d ions salts manifest optical
activity and interesting properties in magnetic field. This fact helped us when we
decided to investigate these ionic liquids. In this work, the most important
accent is on the existence and influence of aqueous and alcoholic complexes of
Fe3+cations. Our analyses give answer of the questions which are connected with
the peculiarities of electron transitions in the complexes and with the stability in
these complexes. Many authors have studied the absorption of the compounds
MCl3.6H2O (M = 3d transition metal ions, n = 2, 3), but they not give
information about the exact number of d electron transitions there. This is the
main aim in our work.
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
EXPERIMENT AND RESULTS
The experimental set up for measurement of absorption coefficient in
visible spectral region has following parts: halogen lamp with stabilized rectifier
3H-7, monochromator SPM-2, system of quartz lenses, polarizer, sample holder
and detector Hamamatsu S2281-01.
The concentration of the aqueous and alcoholic solutions of FeCl3.6H2O is
1%. The thickness of the cuvette is d = 0.995 cm. The absorption spectra of iron
undistorted octahedral and tetrahedral complexes are measured. These
complexes are high spin complexes in weak “crystal” field. The impurity
absorption structures which are manifested in the spectral region 1.3 – 2.2eV
(figs. 1, 2) are compared. The calculation of first derivative of absorption
coefficient determines the number of d electron transitions and the calculation of
second derivative of absorption coefficient defines exact energy position of d
electron transitions in [Fe(H2O)6]3+ and [Fe(OH)4]2- complexes (figs. 1, 2). The
energy diagrams give us the real picture about spin-orbit interaction in our
investigated complexes (figs. 3, 4).
DISSCUSION
The familiar colors of the transition metal ions in solutions are due to
absorption bands which have their origins in electronic transitions within the 3d
shell. The electric field of the nearest neigbour anions splits the energy levels of
the unpaired d electrons and electronic transitions between these split energy
levels give rise to the observed “crystal field” spectra [1].
The measurement of absorption spectrum of 3d metal ions solutions helps
us to understand how many unpaired d electrons are in the different complex
structures. In the case of [Fe(H2O)6]3+, it is easy to determine the number of
these unpaired d electrons. We can see that three absorption maxima manifest in
the spectral region 1.6 – 2.2eV. Therefore, we have three unpaired d electrons in
the iron octahedral complex. The situation with the complex [Fe(OH)4]- is the
other. Here, we observe more complicated absorption structure in the spectral
region 1.3 – 2 eV (fig. 2). The Fe3+ structure consists of some overlap maxima.
The calculation of the first derivative of absorption coefficient by the photon
energy gives information about the number of d electron transitions in the
complex [Fe(OH)4]-. The exact position of 3d electronic states can be precisely
Association Scientific and Applied Research
115
determined only by calculation of the second derivative of absorption
coefficient. In the end, the unpaired d electrons are three again in the iron
tetrahedral complex (fig. 2).
1.7
3
3+
Fe(H2O)
1.6
1.5
1,93 eV
1,78 eV
1.3
6
1,92 eV
2
1.4 1,67 eV
1,67 eV
d/d
-1
 [cm ]
3+
Fe(H2O)
6
1
1,77 eV
1.2
0
1.1
1.0
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9 2.0
E [eV]
2.1
-1
2.2
1,6
1,7
1,8
1,9
2,0
2,1
2,2
E [eV]
a)
b)
50
25
1,8 eV
1,97 eV
1,7 eV
d /d
2
0
2
-25
3+
Fe(H2O)
-50
6
-75
-100
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
E [eV]
c)
Fig. 1 a) Absorption spectrum of the complex [Fe(H2O)6]3+ with: b) calculated
first derivative of absorption coefficientin the spectral region 1.6 – 2.2 eV and c)
second derivative of absorption coefficient in the same spectral region.
0,10
[Fe(OH)4]
-
1,67 eV
0,08
0,08
d/d
-1
 [cm ]
1,52 eV
0,12
0,09
0,07
0,06
1,78 eV
0,04
0,00
[Fe(OH)4]
-
0,05
-0,04
0,04
1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,8 1,9 2,0
E [eV]
a)
116
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
E [eV]
b)
Association Scientific and Applied Research
1,7
1,8
1,9
3
[Fe(OH)4]
-
1
0
2
d /d
2
2
1,7 eV
-1
-2
-3
1,3
1,55 eV
1,4
1,5
1,6 1,7
E [eV]
1,85 eV
1,8
1,9
c)
Fig. 2 Absorption spectrum of the complex [Fe(OH)4]- with: b) calculated first
derivative of absorption coefficient in the spectral region 1.3 – 2eV and c)
second derivative of absorption coefficient in the same spectral region.
If the electron transitions are allowed by multiplicity then we can observe
wide bands in the absorption spectrum [2]. The t2g → eg transitions which are
allowed by multiplicity conduct to the excited state. In this state, the distance in
equilibrium between the 3d ionic nucleus and the nucleus of ligand is bigger
than this distance in the basic state. If the already mentioned distance hasn’t
change (principle of Frank-Kondon) the electronic excited molecules are in
excited vibrated states. When the molecules are excited the bond lengths
correspond to these in the basic state. The excited state interacts with the
molecules of solvent that aren’t located in the first coordination sphere. This
interaction changes because the closest molecules of solvent are located at
different distances from the 3d metal ion. The solvent can’t reorganize during
the transition. Therefore, the excited vibrated state of different molecules
interacts with the molecules of solvent which are located at different distances
from this state. The change of energy of solvation influences on the energy of
excited vibrated state. The result is that the wide bands manifest in the
absorption spectrum. For example, the absorption spectrum of the octahedral
complex [Fe(H2O)6]3+ consists of three absorption maxima (fig. 1a). The
absorption spectrum of the tetrahedral complex [Fe(OH)4]- consists of wide
impurity absorption band (fig. 2a). Electronic ground state of the ion Fe3+ is 6S.
Other sextet levels lack. In the limits of weak field octahedral configuration, the
ground state is (t2g)3(eg)2 with five unpaired spins. In the limits of strong field
octahedral configuration, the ground state (t2g)5 has only one unpaired spin. The
Association Scientific and Applied Research
117
basic question is: Is the configuration (t2g)4(eg)1 with three unpaired spins in
ground state effective for the case of intermediate field? The answer is that such
configuration cannot be examined. In our case the configuration is (t2g)3(eg)2.
The ground state in the limits of weak field tetrahedral configuration is (eg)2(t2g)3
and the ground state in the limits of strong field tetrahedral configuration is with
one unpaired spin (eg)4(t2g)1. The last case is not observed heretofore. In our
case, we have the manifestation of weak crystal field.
Fig. 3 Energy diagram of the iron octahedral complex.
The energy positions of electron transitions in Fe3+ ion for the aqueous and
alcoholic solutions are compared on figures 3 and 4. The value of the crystal
field parameter Dq and these of radial parameters Dt and Ds for the complex
[Fe(H2O)6]3+ are calculated by the next three equations: 15 898 cm-1 = 6Dq –
2Ds + Dt; 14 514 cm-1 = 6Dq + 2Ds + 6Dt and 13 717 cm-1 = -4Dq – 2Ds + Dt.
Thus Dq = 218 cm-1, Dt = 3971 cm-1 and Ds = -5309 cm-1. The Racah
parameters B and C have values respectively 614 cm-1 and 3332 cm-1 in the case
of aqueous solution. F2 = 1089 cm-1 and F4 = 95 cm-1 are the Condon–Shortley
parameters [2] which are connected with Racah parameters by these two
equations B = F2 – 5F4 and C = 35F4. The following exchange integrals K(z2, x2-
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
y2) = 4F2 + 15F4 = 5781 cm-1, K(z2, yz) = F2+30F4 = 3939 cm-1 and K(x2-y2, yz)
= 3F2 + 20F4 = 5167 cm-1 are valid for the Fe3+ ion in the octahedral complex.
-
[Fe(OH)4]
4
4
G
A1
1.85 eV
yz
t2g
4
T2
4
1.7 eV
xy
1.55 eV
xz
d5
3
t 2g e g
T1
2
2
6
S
6
A1
z
eg
2
2
x -y
Fig. 4 Energy diagram of the iron tetrahedral complex.
The value of the crystal field parameter Dq and these of radial parameters
Dt and Ds for the complex [Fe(OH)4]- are calculated as follows: 14 925 cm-1 = 4Dq – 2Ds + Dt; 13 717 cm-1 = -4Dq + Ds - 4Dt and 12 500 cm-1 = 6Dq – 2Ds +
Dt. Thus Dq = -243 cm-1, Dt = -5635 cm-1 and Ds = -9795 cm-1. The value of Dq
indicates the dominant electrostatic interaction in the solution, because of the
orbital splitting [5]. The Racah parameters B and C have values respectively
1100 cm-1 and 4906 cm-1 in the case of alcoholic solution and F2 = 1089 cm-1, F4
= 140 cm-1. The following exchange integrals K(z2, x2-y2) = 6456 cm-1, K(z2, yz)
= 5289 cm-1 and K(x2-y2, yz) = 6067 cm-1 are valid for the Fe3+ ion in the
tetrahedral complex. The interaction between eg and t2g orbitals is connected
with the exchange integrals as it is shown on figure 4. This connection is
determined for the octahedral complex after the change of the position of eg and
t2g orbitals for the ion Fe3+ (d5).
The strength of the three-dimensional harmonic oscillator determines from
the ratio of the real intensity and the intensity of the radiation of the electron. f
= 1 for such “ideal electron”. The transitions of the oscillator classify by the
strength f and this connects the theory with the experiment. f = 1 for the allowed
transition; for single symmetric band:
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119
, where ε() not depends on the concentration
of the solutions [4]. The next equation
explains the
connection between the oscillator strength fi and the transition moment of the
impurity band Qi, where νi is the frequency of the band centre. The strength of
the oscillator f is 0.1061x10-5 for [Fe(H2O)6]3+ and f = 0.0076x10-5 for
[Fe(OH)4]- at temperature T = 300K. This means that the transitions are spinallowed with forbidden pairing [6]. The transition moment of the impurity band
has next two values Q1 = 0.1457x10-3 and Q2 = 0.013x10-3 for the complexes
[Fe(H2O)6]3+ and [Fe(OH)4]-.
After all these analyses, we can say that we know what happens in the
investigated Feoctahedral and tetrahedral complexes. Next step of our
experiments is connected with the investigation of optical activity and Faraday
rotation of aqueous solutions of FeCl3.6H2O.
CONCLUSIONS
The value of the crystal field parameter for the complex [Fe(OH)4]indicates the dominant electrostatic interaction in the alcoholic solution. Thus
the spin-orbit interaction is stronger for the tetrahedral iron complex. The
strength of the oscillator for [Fe(H2O)6]3+ is bigger than this for [Fe(OH)4]-. The
transition moment of the impurity band has again bigger value for the octahedral
complex.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Partial financial support by project of Shumen UniversityPD-08226/12.03.2014 is gratefully acknowledged.
REFERENCES
[1]. Gruen, D.M., McBeth, R.L. The coordination chemistry of 3d transition
metal ions in fused salt solutions, Argonne; Illinois, USA: Argonne
National Laboratory, 2009.
[2]. Drago, R.S., Physical Methods in Chemistry. Saunders Golden Sunburst
Series, 1977.
[3]. Ballhausen, C.J., Introduction to Ligand Field Theory. New York: McGraw
– Hill Book Company, 1962.
[4]. Hartmann, H., Schmidtke, H.H. Z. Phys. Chem. 19, 1959, p. 43.
[5]. Gerloch, M., Slade, R.C., Ligand-field parameters, Cambridge University
Press, London, 1973.
[6]. Figgis, B.N., Ligand Field Theory, National Laboratory, Upton, New York,
USA.
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
JOURNAL SCIENCE EDUCATION INNOVATION , VOL. 2. 2014
Association Scientific and Applied Research
International Journal
Original Contribution
ISSN 1314-9784
QUANTUM MODEL OF COBALT COMPLEXES
Petya Petkova, Maria Dimitrova, Petko Vasilev, Mustafa Mustafa
SHUMEN UNIVERSITY “KONSTANTIN PRESLAVSKY”,
115 UNIVERSITETSKA STREET, 9712 SHUMEN,
E-mail: [email protected]
ABSTRACT: We have investigated the absorption of the Co doped Bi12MO20 (M = Si,
Ti) in the spectral region 12 092–18 149 cm-1. The observed absorption band is due to the Coimpurity in the visible spectral region. Schrödinger equation is solved in the spectral region
of the absorption structure of Co2+ and Co3+.
KEY WORDS: 3d transition metals, oxygen complexes, Schrödinger equation
INTRODUCTION
Sillenite-type Bi12SiO20 (BSO) pure and doped single crystals are widely
used in optical devices, spatial-time light modulators and as holographic media
[1,2]. BSO are cubic crystals, I23 space group symmetry, built up of Si-O4
tetrahedrons and deformed Bi-On polyhedrons [3], defined by some authors as
Bi-On (n = 7) - octahedrons [4] or as Bi-O-pseudo-octahedrons [5]. The
chemical bonds Bi-O and Si-O in BSO are covalent [3]. After reported literature
data most of doping ions in BSO are placed at metal position in Si-O4tetrahedron [6]. For Ru, Cu and Mn - ions there are data for occupation of both
metal positions in tetrahedron (replacing Si) and in pseudooctahedron (replacing
Bi) [5,6,7]. Many studies on the optical absorption coefficient of doped with Al,
P, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Se and Ru sillenites in the VIS spectral region have
been reported so far and the effect of doping were discussed mainly in respect to
possible oxidation states of doping ions, position of allowed electron transitions
in the 1.5 – 2.2 eV region and the dependence of corresponding absorption
coefficient on dopant concentration [5,7,8-16]. Nevertheless, until now there are
no systematic complex investigations on doping effects on impurity levels in the
band gap (1.5–2.2 eV). In this work, we present the quantum model of Co doped
cubic, isotropic and optically active crystals without internal deformations.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
121
MATERIALS AND SAMPLES PREPARATION
We investigated doped BSO and BTO crystals with Co. All the crystals
were grown from stoichiometric melts Bi2O3:SiO2 = 6:1 using the Czochralski
method under conditions described in detail elsewhere [17, 18]. High purity
Bi2O3, SiO2 and Co3O4 were used for synthesis and doping. The Co2+ and Co3+
ions substitute respectively Si4+ and Ti4+ in the oxygen tetrahedra in the
samples.The concentration of doping was determined by flame (Zeeman 3030)
and electrical-thermal atomic (Varian 240) absorption spectrometry as well as
by inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (Jobin Yvon,
ULTIMA 2).
EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS
We measured absorption spectra of Bi12SiO20:Co and Bi12TiO20:Co in the
spectral region 1.5-2.25 eV (Fig. 1a, Fig. 2a). It is seen that the cobalt structure
is complicated and its shape does not give information about the number of the
electron transitions in Co2+ and Co3+ ion. Therefore, the calculation of the first
derivative of the absorption coefficient gives information about the number of
the electron transitions in the investigated Co complexes (Fig. 1b, Fig. 2b). The
exact energy position of the electron transitions in the Co ion is determined by
calculation of the second derivative of the absorption coefficient (Fig. 1c, Fig.
2c).
24
20
d/d
-1
8
12
8
1.92 eV
2.06 eV
7
4
6
1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2
E [eV]
0
1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2
E [eV]
2
16
0
2
100
Bi12SiO20:Co
9
[cm ]
Bi12SiO20:Co
200
Bi12SiO20:Co
-100
d /d
10
300
1.75 eV
-200
2.1 eV
1.94 eV
-300
1.78 eV
-400
1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2
E [eV]
Figure 1 a) Absorption spectrum of Bi12SiO20:Co2+ in the spectral region 1.5-2.2
eV; b) first derivative of absorption coefficient; c) second derivative of
absorption coefficient.
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
d/dE
-1
 [cm ]
50
40
30
20
1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3
E [eV]
1.88 eV
750
2
60
Bi12TiO20:Co
1.75 eV
1500
2
Bi12TiO20:Co
2250
d /dE
70
0
1,85 eV
-25
-50
1,68 eV
-75
Bi12TiO20:Co
-100
-125
1,75 eV
-150
-175
-200
-225
1,5 1,6 1,7 1,8 1,9 2,0 2,1 2,2 2,3
E [eV]
0
-750
-1500
1.68 eV
-2250
-3000
1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3
E [eV]
Figure 2 a) Absorption spectrum of Bi12TiO20:Co3+ in the spectral region 1.55 –
2.25 eV; b) first derivative of absorption coefficient; c) second derivative of
absorption coefficient.
DISSCUSION
In the process of absorption, the oscillating electric field at the time of the
light in the area around the impurity center can be regarded as homogeneous.
This field creates oscillating dipoles in the quantum system. These dipoles have
an average dipole moments arising only when the system is in the condition
which are linear superpositions of the own functions of the initial state "1" and
the last excited state "n" [19].
The dipole moment of the electron transition Dˆ 1, 2 is a vector operator and
it can be decomposed in three axes of the coordinate system x, y and z:
Dˆ 1, 2  Dˆ 1, 2 x  Dˆ 1, 2 y  Dˆ 1, 2 z .
If all three components of this vector operator are zero, the transition is
forbidden by symmetry. Otherwise, the transition is allowed by symmetry. In
our case, the light spreads along the z axis in the crystal. Therefore, we can
calculate two components of dipole moment ( Dˆ 1, 2 )x and ( Dˆ 1, 2 )y.
When the electric field of light is isotropic, then the potential field is
independent of time and the decision of Schrödinger equation is following:
 ( x, t )   ( x) exp( iEt / ) [20]. The spatial part of wave function  ( x ) satisfies the
Schrödinger equation, which is independent of time.
If  ( x, t )   ( x) exp(iEt / ) is the decision of Schrödinger equation with
independent of time potential V  V ( x) , then the spatial part of wave function
 ( x ) satisfies equation: 
2
2
 V ( x) ( x)  E ( x) ,
2m x 2
where Е is the energy of the
particle. This equation is famous as the Schrödinger equation, which is
dependent of time. The decisions which can be written as  ( x, t )   ( x) exp(iE t )
are called stationary. Let's look at the ions Co2+ and Co3+ with mass m which are
caught by one-dimensional hole with potential described as:
Association Scientific and Applied Research
123
V ( x )   0 0 x  a . The potential V is zero in the hole and the Schrödinger
equation takes the next form: i  ( x, t )  
t
 2 ( x, t )
2m x 2
2
. The decision, which is
independent of time with potential V = 0 is: E ( x)  
h 2 d 2
. When the last
2m dx 2
equation is divided by  2 / 2m and when all expressions are removed of the one
side of equation, then we can see:
d 2 2mE
 2   0 , ( k 2  2meE /
2
dx
2
) =>
d 2
 k 2  0 The decision of this equation is:  ( x)  A sin(kx )  B cos(kx ) . The
dx 2
boundary conditions are applied for determination of constants A and B. The
wave function is zero outside the trap of electrons, because the potential is
infinity unto x  0 , x  a . The wave function must be defined and continuous
everywhere. This fact shows that the decision must be applicable both inside and
outside the trap borders. If x  0 , then the decision is: (0)  A sin 0  B cos 0  B .
Thus  (0)  0 is fulfilled and B  0   ( x)  A sin kx . The wave function should
also disappear abruptly at the other end of the trap-hole. This means that
 (a )  0 :  (a )  A sin ka  0 . This condition is valid if A  0 or sin(ka )  0 . The first
possibility is not interesting; the wave function which is zero everywhere is the
same as in the case when there is no particle. So we continue to talk about the
last possibility. sin ka  0 , if: ka  n , where n  1, 2,3... Thus k  (n ) / a and the
wave function can be written as:  ( x)  A sin( n x ) . The constant A is determined
a
by normalization of the wave function and technique we will discuss below in
the text. Let us use the definition of the constant k in terms of the energy of the
ions Co2+ and Co3+, to write the expression for the energy in terms of (n ) / a :
2
k 
2mE
2
k 2 h 2 n 2 2 2
E

2m
2ma 2
The wave function will disappear if n  0 , which indicates that there is no
particle in the hole. Therefore, the lowest energy of the particle can be found in
n  1 : E1 
2
2
2ma 2
The lowest energy is called the energy of the ground state. The
basic state is the state of lowest energy of the system, which may be tolerated.
For infinite square area, all other energies are given as numerical multiplets of
the basic energy state, i.e. En  n2 E1 .
For the energy of the photons, in which there is some peculiarity in the
absorption spectrum, the constant k can be defined. Then we determine the value
of a ( n  1 ), after that we calculate E1 and finally En is determined. If the
wavelength region is between a and b then
 ( a )  A sin( ka )  B cos(ka )
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
 ( a )  0; ( a)  
2
2mE
d 2
0
da 2
0  A sin(ka)  B cos(ka)(1)
xb
 (b)  A sin( kb)  B cos( kb)
 (b)  0
0  A sin( kb)  B cos( kb)(2)
The constants A and B are determined by the equations (1) and (2).
x ba
 (b  a )  A sin  k (b  a )   B cos  k (b  a) 
ka  n
kb  (2n  1)
n  1, 2,...
k (b  a)  (n  1)
k
( n  1)
ba
 ( n  1) 
 ( n  1) 
x   B cos 
x
b

a


 ba

 ( x)  A sin 
E1 
2
2
2m(b  a) 2
(3)
n 1
E2 
4 2 2
n2
2m(b  a) 2
E3 
9 2 2
2m(b  a) 2
n3
When the wave function which satisfies the Schrodinger equation is
multiplied by undetermined constant A, we only normalize it as follows:

1
2
   ( x, t ) dx
A2 
The function  ( x, t ) is normalized, when A ( x, t ) . When the particle is
limited in the region 0  x  a , the wave function in the basic state has the form:
 x , where A is an normalization constant. The constant A is
 ( x)  A sin(
)
a
determined and the probability, when the particle is in the range of
determined also.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
a
3a
 x
2
4
is
125

The normalization means that  
2
dx  1 .
The wave function is zero

a
outside the interval 0  x  a , therefore  
0
We use the trigonometric identity
expression
a
a
x 
2
A2  sin 2 
 dx  A 
a


0
0
which
1  cos  2 x 
2
dx 
a
 dx 
0
a
x 
2
2 x 
.
dx   A2 sin 2 
dx  A  sin 
 dx
a
a




0
0
sin 2 u 
2 a
A
2
2
2 a
A
2
and we rewrite the
1  cos 2u
2
is
 2 x 
dx
a 
integrated:
 cos 
0
The first part of this expression can be integrated immediately:
A2 a The second part is zero. Thus only the first part gives its share in
dx


2 a
A
2
2
0
a
the equation, whereat  
0
A
2
a
2
dx 
A2
a  1.
2
Finally, the normalization constant is
and the normalization wave function is  ( x) 
2
x  .
sin 

a
 a 
The wave functions  1 , 2 , 3 of the ground state (n = 1) and of the first
excited state (n = 2) of ions Co2+ are calculated by using the formula (3).
 1 ( x  1, 78)  1, 2297 , n=1;  2 ( x  1,94)  1, 2504 , n=1;  3 ( x  2,1)  1, 2705 , n=1.
 1 ( x  1, 78)  1,336 , n=2;  2 ( x  1,94)  1,3592 , n=2;  3 ( x  2,1)  1,3813 , n=2.
The same procedure was repeated for the wave functions  1 , 2 , 3 of the
ground state (n = 1), of the first excited state (n = 2) and of the second excited
state (n = 3) of Co3+ ions.
 1 ( x  1, 68)  1, 2015 , n=1;  2 ( x  1, 75)  1, 2104 , n=1;  3 ( x  1,88)  1, 2272 , n=1.
 1 ( x  1, 68)  1,302 , n=2;  2 ( x  1, 75)  1,31 , n=2;  3 ( x  1,88)  1,33 , n=2.
 1 ( x  1, 68)  1,3803 , n=3;  2 ( x  1, 75)  1,3908 , n=3;  3 ( x  1,88)  1, 4091, n=3.
CONCLUSIONS
The Schrodinger equation is decided regardless of the time due to the
isotropy of the light electric field for the ions Co2+ in the bismuth sillenite
(Bi12SiO20) and the ions Co3+ in the bismuth titanate (Bi12TiO20). The own
functions of the initial and the last excited states of Co2+ and Co3+ are calculated.
All electron transitions in Co2+ and Co3+ are allowed by symmetry.
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Partial financial support by project of Shumen University PD-08226/12.03.2014 is gratefully acknowledged.
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
127
JOURNAL SCIENCE EDUCATION INNOVATION , VOL. 2. 2014
Association Scientific and Applied Research
International Journal
Original Contribution
ISSN 1314-9784
COMPONENTS OF THE DELPHI PROCESS
THEORETICAL AND RESEARCH STUDIES
Sonia Ilieva
SHUMEN UNIVERSITY
"BISHOP KONSTANTIN OF PRESLAV"
DEPARTMENT OF "SOCIAL WORK"
BULGARIA
E-mail: [email protected]
ABSTRACT: The justification of Delphi method is not a single act but continuous
process whose development is is reflected in a series of reports. They are part of research
memorandum of RAND Corporation by 1948 until 1973 and represent working documents
related to Delphi method. At first they were designed for the needs of the corporation and
only for the period of several years exceeded its limits. Delphi methodcontains the
characteristics of scientific strictly regulated process, which applies to a specific technology each process has its components. These components are: 1.choosing a topic 2. time to
conduct 3. a research group 4. an expert group 6. number of rounds 7. communication; 8.
Analysis of results 9. audit of the process; 10. pilot study.
KEYWORDS: long-term forecasting, futurology, governed scientific process, scientific
and technical progress, memorandum reports, choice of subject standards for choosing a
topic, time to conduct, communication between experts, electronic communication,
administration Delphi process, a research group, expert group, qualification of experts,
questionnaires, iterations, number of rounds, analysis of results, audit process, a pilot study
The U.S. RAND Corporation is creator of the the method for long-term
forecasting - Delphi method first intended for the needs of the corporation and
only for a period of several years outside its borders.
Its start Delphi method was from the Second World War - in 1944, when
General H. Arnold ordered the creation of a report linked to future technological
capabilities that can be used by the military. The method is described in 1964 in
"Report on the study of long-term planning" Corporation. Objects of study,
according to this report: scientific controversies, population growth, automation,
space exploration, the emergence and prevention of wars, future weapons
systems and others. For the last time the list of predictable processes using the
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Delphi method has been significantly enlarged, but undoubtedly the most use it
has in the field of scientific and technical progress.
The main task that started the development of the method is to answer the
question: "How much can be known about the future?" When they published
treir report on the long-term forecasting it became RAND - bestseller that
contains forecasts for technological breakthroughs in 2000 and beyond.
Contributions were also by above 82 experts participated in the Delphi.
The justification of Delphi method is not a single act but a continuous
process whose development is reflected in a series of reports. They are part of a
research memorandum of RAND Corporation from 1948 to 1973 and represent
working documents related to the Delphi method. During the development of the
method they are designed for a range of scientists and researchers. It is clear that
the Delphi method contains characteristics established strictly regulated
scientific process that applies to a specific technology.
Each process expresses consistent actions or events, changes, that outline
specific development or achieving a defined objective. And each process has, its
constituent parts - components.
The components of the Delphi method are: selection, setting of time for
performing, forming of a research group, a group of experts, development of
questionnaires, determining the number of rounds, choice of way of
communication, analysis of results, conducting a pilot study and audit of the
process.
1. Select a theme
According to R. Judd, R. Taylor and J. Jacobs, the choice of topics for
study by the Delphi is the most important step in the whole process because it
directly relates to the quality of the generated results [19], [36], [18].
Because Delphi technique focuses on the extraction of expertise for a short
period of time, the choice of topics in general depends on the disciplinary areas
of competence required by the experts on specific issues.
With respect to certain standards for the selection of topics for Delphi, in
fact there are no accurate criteria mentioned in the literature. K. Oh argues that
the selection of appropriate topics for Delphi, is usually based on the judgment
of the principal researcher [26].
The choice of topic should be approached with extreme caution and need to
be comply with the following:
1. Therefore appropriate is to avoid general, broad themes in the
development that enables experts to meet surface only "touching" to the
problem, without being able to meet full and complete. The more specific it is a
topic, as it allows for a thorough and complete opinions.
2. The topic should be related to the actual problems of the science, the
technological development or the social practice. In this sense, through her may
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129
enable experts to develop a problem or make long-term forecasting associated
with its development.
3. It is necessary the respect for the line between desire and intention of the
researchers and their real strength and abilities to provide adequate expert team,
to develop the theme and giving expert opinion. Very often it is permitted to
start work on a difficult and a large volume of a topic that takes a long time and
it faces insurmountable difficulties, which eventually has a negative impact on
the results themselves.
4. With the choice of topic is necessary to determine baseline information
from factual data, materials or existing statistics containing the necessary
indicators to assist the research group. There is also a literature research in the
selected direction, which has attracted initial attention and interest of the
research group to orient it in a better formulation of the selected topic.
5. It is essential when choosing a topic, to answer the question how long it
is possible to separate it in order to develop it.
1. Time for performing
Conducting the Delphi method can take different times. In most cases it is
quite lengthy. A. Delbecq, A. Van de Ven and D. Gustafson, B. Ludwig and
F. Ulschak recommend at least 45 days for the administration of Delphi [9] [39]
[24].
With regard to the time between iterations A.Delbecq, A. Van de Ven and
D. Gustafson advised two weeks to be able to respond calmly to the questions
[9].
B. Ludwig believed that "blemish of Delphi method is that the process can
be slowed down considerably, as it is possible a few days or weeks pass between
the rounds." [23, pp. 54]
The research group determines the number of iterations and time required,
in relation to the volume of research and also, considering the number of
participants - the more they are, the longer it takes to process their opinions and
there - for formulating questionnaires . Depending on whether they are using
computer programs or using traditional paper-based, time may be reduced or
increased. [1]
2. Research group
The research group, which plays the role of coordinator, analyzes the data
and wrote the questionnaires. It plays a very important role in the whole process,
as they have be careful not to reflect their views and preconceptions on issues
and this may distort the results. If there are disagreements between the answers
they need to be investigated, but not forgotten. Otherwise the answers to the
dissidents will fall and this will lead to a false consensus. [1]
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According to W. Trochim in front of the research group is also the primary
responsibility for ensuring ethical behavior within the research. This includes
the protection of human subjects participating safety and welfare, drawing on
relevant protocols and adherence to the institutional and governmental
regulations. It is responsible for providing an informed consent obtained from
each participant and proper maintenance of records of the study. It is responsible
for compliance with financial and administrative policies and conflict prevention
at the realization of Delphi. [37]
All members of the research team must have appropriate education,
training and qualifications to undertake the project implementation. They must
have the ability to perform well under stress task and easy to acquire new skills
in new situations.
Of great importance are the qualities of the leader of the research team:
 manages and coordinates overall conduct of the Delphi procedures act as
the primary point of contact between the research group and the expert group;
 has the qualities of an organized person with excellent coordination and
management skills, research experience and dedication to science, to be flexible,
patient, good social skills, good communicator, both physically and mentally
stable;
 should be involved in determining targets, responsibilities and tasks of
the research team.
In the research group and the coordinator enters Data Coordinator
/Analyst/. He is responsible for the overall management of the survey data,
which are derived from the opinions of experts and into a specific database for
the development of the questionnaires. One of his main duties is proper and
timely implementation of the expert answers in the electronic database and the
electronic form of communication between experts and research groups.
3. Expert group
The experts may be homogeneous or heterogeneous group. Their profile
can be defined by age, nationality, knowledge, qualification, profession or
professional position, etc. Of particular importance are their expertise, which
affects the quality of the results [16]. T. Gordon wrote that "The key to a
successful Delphi study lies in the selection of participants. Because the results
of the Delphi depends on the knowledge and cooperation of experts is essential
to include persons who could offer valuable insights. "[15, p.7]
The respondents of the questionnaire experts, should be knowledgeable in
the field, but in the literature there are suggestions that high level expertise is not
required. The minimum number of participants to ensure good performance of
the group is to some extent depending on the project expertise.
Experiments of K. Brockhoff show that under ideal circumstances, and
small groups composed of four expert can perform well [3].
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131
But how can the experts be identified a priori? - Referring Dalkey,
T.Gordon answers this question: "Can be use different rating systems, for
example [15, p.13]:
1. Are you an expert in this field, you work every day?
2. Do you work in this area from time to time?
3. Was knowledge of this area received through casual professional
reading?
4. Do you feel yourself informed citizen?
5. Are you uninformed about this area? "
He offers a a sample questionnaire for the selection of experts in the Delphi
study [15, p. 13-14 ]:
„1. Which one of the terms best describes your profession?
scientific worker______
politician________
physicist_____
others_________
businessman ____
cleric _____
servant ________
engineer________
actor________
producer ________
teacher________
publisher _______
shopkeeper ___________
2. If you are a scientist, what is your research area? (Parallel issues for
engineers, businessmen, teachers, etc.)
Elementary particle physics, genetics, biomedicine and others.
Organic Chemistry, Nuclear Physics, Astronomy
Materials Science, Psychology, Economics,
Social Sciences, Political Science, Agricultural Science.
3. Do you consider yourself:
Erudite
Specialist
4. Are you interested in (or have experience): Technological forecasting
political developments, ideas and more. Importance of policies relating to the
analysis of the issues Issues of world politics. "
If the number of respondents is large, the process of gathering information
in referred matrix should be automated. The program will have access to a
database of characteristics of respondents as their choice will be done
automatically.
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In Delphi, one of the first things facing researchers is the sample size of
experts. There is a wide range for its size and it is always carefully appointed
from the researcher with the topic being studied. B. Ludwig writes that "the
greater part in the Delphi were used between 15 and 20 respondents." [23, pp. 2]
There is no consensus among researchers at Delphi regarding the number
of experts involved in the process. A. Delbecq, A. Van de Ven and D.
Gustafson believe that 10-15 people are enough [8]. B. R. Witkin and J.W.
Altschuld, believe that the recommended amount of the expert group should
generally be less than 50 people, but is likely to be employed more people [42].
H. Jones and B.C. Twiss, said the principal investigator of the Delphi
study, need to identify and select the most appropriate persons through a process
of nomination [18].
B. Ludwig also states that "the appointment of well-known and respected
persons as members of the target group of experts is recommended". [23]
According to M. Adler and E. Ziglio there are four requirements for
experts to conduct Delphi expertise [2]:
1. knowledge and experience to analyze issues;
2. capacity and willingness to participate;
3. have enough time to participate;
4. have communication skills.
Because seeking the expert opinion is necessary in advance sampling of
experts on whether they have the necessary knowledge and willingness to
answer the research questions set [11]. In the absence of full scientific
knowledge, decision makers must rely on their own intuition.
A. Delbecq, A. Van de Ven and D. Gustafson explicitly identify three
groups of people who are well qualified and able to participate in Delphi.
According to them, these are [9]:
"(1) best management decision makers who will use the results of the
Delphi study, (2) professional staff along with their team, (3) meeting the Delphi
questionnaire that can provide solutions.
T. Gordon notes that in the realization of Delphi "... the first problem is
how to select potential participants. Knowledgeable individuals are usually
identified by the literature, which are published on the subject of the study,
recommendations from institutions ... "[15, pp. 8] In his opinion the final
approach suffers the most serious criticism because in the recommendations of
institutions has the potential to propose people belonging to cliques, but not so
good specialists. One feature that helps to ensure that the necessary skills are in
place to form a matrix that lists the necessary skills [10, pp. 8-9].
In summary, about the experts participants can say the following:
 The expert in conducting the Delphi method is a participant in the team
that has a lot of experience, expertise, proven practical skills in a defined
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133
professional field, which is the purpose of discussing and contributing to the
achievement of the team goal;
 Specific behavior of the expert is that he is always confident in what he
say and what he does, is very knowledgeable about news and facts in whose
problem / and discuss / ; convincing and suggests real confidence;
 The expert input to the target is that it provides the team with unique
expertise and skills in problem discussions;
 Weaknesses of the expert are its straightforwardness and intransigence of
the statements of his position, which often makes it difficult for the team.
Beyond those criteria, B. Ludwig specifically addresses the motivation of
experts and the research group as a key to successful implementation of Delphi,
which ensures a high degree of accuracy [23].
In addition cited authors a number of other researchers of the Delphi
method have achieved scientific developments related to the formation and work
of the expert group, such as B. Brown and S. Cochram, P. Ashton, F. Boulder
and G. Wright, L. Christian, D. Gustafson, R. Shockley, G. Uolstar, M.
McKee, P. Priest, M. Dzhinzlar, N. Black, A. Klee and others. [1]
1. Questionnaires
The start of iterations in Delphi begins with the development of the first
questionnaire for the first round. It takes great care and attention to this because
if respondents do not understand the issues, they can formulate the wrong
answers and / or be disappointed [9]. R. Schmidt believes that sometimes even
the purpose of the first round Delphi is to formulate these questions well [32].
Initially these are usually wide open-ended questions so that they are clear in the
research network [2].
According to G. Skalmoski and F. Hartman, alternative questions can be
more focused and structured to lead participants to a particular purpose, all the
time in the next rounds. With a broad research questions presented to the
network in the first round is likely to receive a wider range of responses than if it
represented a narrow set of issues. But will they be presented to experts focused
broad issues is a decision that should be taken at an early stage of the design of
the Delphi procedure [35, pp. 10].
In Delphi there is a continuum representing the degree of focus openness of
the questionnaire. For example, the initial questions are generally wide openended questions, so as to obtain open, wide responses from research network
[2], [9], [23].
The alternative is that the questions are more focused and structured to lead
participants in Delphi to the target set by the duration of the procedure relate to
items on the next rounds. With a broad research network responses in the initial
round is more likely in the next rounds to get a wider range of responses than if
narrower set of questions focuses the collective intelligence of the participants
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around one or more possible answers [1] . M. Adler and E. Ziglio added that if
the experts failed to deal with issues that may lead to inappropriate application
of Delphi and discredit the creative efforts [2].
Presumably responding of the questionnaire should be well informed in the
field, but in the scientific literature on the Delphi method is mentioned otherwise
- G. Welty, who takes the view that it is not necessary high level of expertise of
the participants. [loc. 2]
Experts are encouraged, by answering questionnaires to draw from their
experiences, and to use any historical data, studies, or other resources available
to assist in response to questions.
First questionnaire is usually composed of one or two questions. They are
intended to be open-ended. Experts give their opinion and return the
questionnaire to the research group. It shall review the responses and use this
information to develop more specific questions which will be used in the second
questionnaire.
The second questionnaire has two main parts: first, results and responses
from the first questionnaire are presented in an orderly format /example in the
form of a list or table/. Second, include new questions formulated by the
research group. Depending on the number of rounds, the procedure as for the
second questionnaire multiplies.
2. Number of rounds
The number of the rounds is also variable and depends on the purpose of
the study. Their number varies from two to ten, but the most common is limited
to two or three rounds. P. Gootschalk however, identify Delphi studies with a
circle [16].
A. Delbecq and D. Gustafson indicate that two or three iterations in
Delphi are enough for most studies [9]. If the estimates in the group are
heterogeneous, then it can be held more rounds. But, if their number is
increasing, it is often a decline in the desire and effort required by participants
[1].
The research group determines the number of rounds even with the setting
of the Delphi and plan them in the documentation of the study.
3. Communication
In the scientific literature there are described different ways of reacting to
the experts with the investigator. Originally Delphi studies were made of paper
and pen by answering the questionnaires have been returned by mail to the
researcher [22], [35]. But with the advent of e-mail, Delphi began to be carried
out with the help of personal computers in a network as pen and paper carrier
gradually lose their application. New technologies allow researchers to put
Delphi on-line questionnaire, where respondents enter and reflect their answers.
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135
These responses are in a digital format and then more easily can be processed.
Some researchers use online surveys to collect data from the experts. Switchover
process communication in Delphi from paper to electronic media are described
by K. Cabaniss, J. Richards, V. Schmidt [4], [28], [34].
Email offers many advantages for both sides - researchers and experts. Perhaps
the most significant contribution of e-mail for Delphi is a fast connection and
hence maintain high enthusiasm among participants. Another benefit of e-mail
in the fact that the data is transmitted in digital format ready which eliminates
the tedious task of processing and interpretation. Through an electronic network
is possible the Delphi study to be completed in a circle [1].
4. Interpretation
of results
In the Delphi method, the data analysis and reporting of results are directly
related to the used questions. Therefore, researchers must apply appropriate
analysis techniques. Presentation of the results of the Delphi are discussed in
detail in a significant number of different monographs related [7], [8], [9], [33].
Some researchers include an analysis of the results [1], sorted according to
the areas of agreement and disagreement, and others, eg. S. Kincaid and A.
Watson used purely qualitative analysis [21], [40]. Purely quantitative methods
have been used by Friend J., A. Silverman, [13], [35] and others.
Most of them - J. Friend, A. Prestamo, J. Rosenbaum - starting with
qualitative methods, followed by quantitative analysis of the next round, by
means of questionnaires Likert [13], [27], [30]. Most of them - Friend J., A.
Prestamo J. Rosenbaum - start with qualitative methods, followed by a
quantitative analysis of the next round, using a Likert questionnaire [13], [28],
[31].
Skulmoski G. and F. Hartman believe that qualitative research is an
explanatory /interpretative/ in the sense that the researcher is interested in how
to interpret the social world and experience as a researcher is flexible and
sensitive to the social context. [35, pp. 9-10]
R. Schmidt and others., Identified as difficulty to collate the results
coming from the large number of experts or that are in a different location [33].
Accelerated evolution of computers and their applications increasingly
eases the process of analyzing the results and making decisions as part of
Delphi. Computer models make more efficient use of data collected through
traditional techniques and methods generate highly realistic predictions and
results of future events. Most scientists associated with the development,
implementation and analysis of the Delphi method recommended after the
results achieved to undertake further study to improve and verify the results
already obtained, but with a sample set of experts other geographical locations
or completely different team of experts [1].
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Many researchers indicate the difficulties aggregation, because of the larger
sample size, their limited views, or their geographic location. Therefore it is
recommended further study to test their results. To achieve this goal should be
expanded set of questions and administered among experts from other
geographical locations. It is possible to make a completely different study to
compare the results. Verification of research would provide richer opportunities
for the researchers.
While some scholars and practitioners include in Delphi the publication of
the resultsthe majority do not. The results of the Delphi contain key data that are
in the toolbox of futurologists, so they need to be published.
Presentation of the results of the Delphi are discussed in more detail in
various monographs as the creators of Delphi and its other researchers [1].
5. Pilot study
The pilot study is sometimes performed to sampling questionnaire or all
procedural issues related with the conduct of Delphi. This is especially
important for inexperienced researchers who can put too ambitious tasks related
to the scope of their research or underestimating the time required for realization
at all stages associated with the method.
According to P. Prescott and K. Soeken often pilot studies are undertaken
for many reasons [26]:
1. identification of problem;
2. conceptualization of the study;
3. formation /structure/ of the study;
4. development of the first questionnaire;
5. refinement of the research tools
6. developing and testing techniques for data analysis.
The pilot study can also help to establish the relevance of the research
question to the relevant field of study. Usually are selected and different
methods of research /qualitative and quantitative/ after considering the pros and
cons of each selected the most promising of them, which have the greatest
potential to answer research. And qualitative and quantitative methods can be
used in the process of Delphi.
G. Skulmoski and F. Hartmann considers that the pilot Delphi is
particularly important for inexperienced researchers may be too ambitious in the
scope of their research or underestimate the time the research will take [35].
A. Fink and J. Kosecoff are focusing on the fact that the pilot study is
needed in terms of how quality will be the searched expertise. As seeking expert
opinion, targeted sample is needed when people are not elected to represent the
population, and represent their personal expertise and ability to respond to
research questions. [11]
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6. Audit of the process
Many researchers of Delphi - M. Adler and E. Ziglio, A. Delbecq and
others., N. Linstone and M. Turoff express the opinion that the permanent
controls at Delphi process are crucial to improve the reliability of the results [2],
[9], [22].
According J. Creswell, F. Fowler, M. Sadleowski this is related to
compliance with methodological rigor, which is also crucial in Delphi [6], [12],
[31].
The rigor is improved when the researchers implement "audit trail" to solve
all major theoretical, methodological and analytical issues from beginning to
end, says M. Sadleowski [31]. In this sense, B. Rodgers and K. Cowles write
that audit trails help to justify the reliability of research [29].
G. Skulmoski and F. Hartman advised the researcher to regularly use a
journal that is intended for registration of audit information. Thus, "the
methodological rigor can contribute to a successful Delphi." [35, p.10] The
logical rigor contributed to an extremely high level of success Delphi.
Through such composite process Delphi Method O. Helmar its creators T.
Gordon and N. Dolki Rishar aim the unpredictable events and changing values
/both practical life and of scientific progress/ not to be represent the discretion of
the random posts and unclear predictions and to study systematically their
conditions so that they become available to a strictly methodical treatment.
According to them, the method is designed to build hypotheses planning in
major areas of the economy, technology, science and the whole political and
social reality.
The foregoing content of the pasted research problem allows to be made
the following
GENERALIZATIONS
AND CONCLUSIONS:
1. Purpose of the Delphi Method: (a) it is associated with the futurology
- the science of predicting the future, (b) it is most appropriate for problems that
require evaluation, quality responses rather than accurate quantitative results, (c)
it is intended to build hypotheses on planning large areas of the economy,
technology, science and the whole political and social reality.
2. Central figure in the process is the informed expert with its resources,
basic knowledge and cultivated a sense of meaning and transfer of general in
specific cases can best perform the application of quasi-laws necessary for
motivated predictions in a given area, creating prototyping technology
management issues of new projects to develop products, etc.
3. The principal difference between the Delphi method and the other
expert methods of the type face to face. (a) Instead of using the traditional
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
approach to reaching consensus through open discussion, this technique
completely eliminates the committee's work, thereby reducing the influence of
some psychological factors such as specious persuasion, reluctance to express
opinions publicly and disadvantages with group dynamics as manipulation or
coercion is minimized. (b) The group interaction in Delphi is anonymous in the
sense that the comments and forecasts do not identify their author and are
presented to the group in such a way as to suppress such identification.
The difference between the Delphi method and the other expert methods of
the type face to faceis visually presented in the following figures. (Figure № 1 и
Figure № 2) They clearly show the controlled connection between experts from
the research group at Delphi Method and keeping anonymity (Figure № 1) and
operation and communication experts in all other methods face to face - they can
communicate with experts in addition to the research group and each other. In
their work they remain known to each other and can exchange thoughts,
formulating their expertise (Figure № 2). The uniqueness of the Delphi
method consists precisely in terms of anonymity, controlled feedback, which
occurs in reaching a consensus on a particular research question.
Figure № 1: Authorial model representing the controlled feedback with
experts in the Delphi method
Legend:
RG – research group
E 1…E N – number of experts
- interaction between the research group with the experts
- controlled feedback, anonymity, iteration
Association Scientific and Applied Research
139
Figure № 2: Authorial model representing the uncontrolled communication
between experts in the methods of the type face to faceinvolving research group
Legend:
RG – research group
E 1…E N – number of experts
- interaction between the research group with the experts
- interaction between the experts







4. The strengths of the Delphi method are:
Anonymity of assessments. The principle of anonymity removes the negative
psychological impact posed by stifling influence of authority or direct
imposition of their own ideas. This method avoids meeting between experts
and their ability to influence psychologically. Thus, each expert is not
influenced by evaluations that formulate the others.
Controlled feedback. It allows experts to take account of certain
circumstances and opinions, which until then had not complied.
The participation of highly qualified professionals as experts ensure scientific
merit and reliability of the forecasts.
Easy and quickly gets the best of the knowledge and experience of the most
qualified experts.
Impartially and objectively examine issues that require evaluation.
Removes some very disturbing of group dynamics in other methods that arise
when making decisions such as the impact of particularly charismatic or
powerful actors who are able to dictate opinions.
Allows the participants more successfully revise their opinions hidden behind
anonymity.
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 Advantage of Delphi is consensus in a field of uncertainty in the absence of
empirical evidence of a process or phenomenon.
 The method is a quick and relatively cheap efficient way to combine the
knowledge and skills of a group of experts who may be participants from
several parts of the globe together to solve a problem or to predict the future.
5. The weaknesses of Delphi are:
 Low level of reliability of the expert decisions;
 Conditioning results related to uncertainties in the questionnaire used for data
collection in each round;
 Difficulties associated with assessing the degree of expertise included in the
forecast.
 The duration of the procedure is undefined because of the possibility of a
more sessions;
 Defenselessness of the experts to research / analytical group that has too
much power;
 The majority opinion is not always the most appropriate, creative solutions to
the minority, sometimes most effective are rejected;
 The analysis requires a lot of time, the minimum of each range is at least one
day;
 In an effort to fall in most constantly growing conformism of experts;
 Opportunities for manipulation by the research group.
6. Improving the Delphi Method. More efficient use of the expert in the
context of Delphi can be achieved by further methodological studies in several
areas:
 Improvements to systematic selection of experts;
 Experimenting with different schemes for respondents to give selfassessment of competence;
 The methods to achieve reliability of estimates can be improved by
appropriate formulas for achieving consensus on the basis of appropriate selfratings;
 Experiment with different methods of acquiring information to learn more
about the form and content of the feedback;
7. One of the most preferred Foresight is Delphi method because:
 It focuses on identifying technological breakthroughs and innovation;
 through it outlines the prospects of innovative development, related to the
progress of science and technology, possible technological horizons that can
be achieved and the likely effects on the economy and society.
8. Detailed and consistent tracking the evolution of the Delphi Method to
institutional global applicable method shows that it is a very flexible technique
suitable for studies where there is incomplete knowledge of the various
phenomena in the social world. In this context, it gives a lot of great
Association Scientific and Applied Research
141
opportunities for different areas of knowledge that focus on problem solving and
implementation of short and / or long-term forecasts. Especially suitable for
project development as a tool in research.
9. The conducted Delphi studies are not identical. There are varieties of
methods ranging from qualitative to quantitative or mixed type. But they
have in common are: design considerations, a decision defining the structure of
the expert group, following certain methodological orientation, a number of
rounds of running, maintaining anonymity of the experts structured interaction
between experts and researchers.
10. Delphi method is applied in different situations and for a wide range of
complex problems for which there is often no other appropriate means of
analysis, because it is an advantage over other expert methods:
 the iterative approach allows the experts to reconsider their decisions in the
light of feedback;
 the process gives participants more time to consider their ideas before you
commit to them, leading to better quality of response;
 the anonymity allows experts to express their opinions freely without
showing institutional loyalty or peer pressure from the group - thus is deleted
the potential impact of the individual;
 the excess "noise" - unnecessary questions and judgments that may occur
during the debate can be controlled from the research /analytical group.
11. Meanwhile, Delphi can be extremely sensitive to:
 the level of expertise of the experts involved in the two main groups of
processes - analytical and expert;
 clarity of the questions formulated in the basic questionnaire - for the first
round and "daughter questionnaires" for the next iteration;
 the way in that takes into account the reasons for the large differences in the
reported values for determining the consensus.
12. To improve the effectiveness of Delphi method is necessary to consider
the following:
 it should not be regarded as a basic research tool and as a means of support,
such as for the necessary studies with established and reliable research
methods;
 research questions and questionnaires themselves need to be pilot tested to
avoid any ambiguity or contradiction in them.
13. The theoretical study done in connection with this work showed that the
application of Delphi method has the potential for misuse. However, it is still a
valuable tool for all researchers of society as a whole and individual areas of
social development and futurologists.
14. The results of Delphi method can be very valuable to any social
organization. It can provide professionals in organizations to stimulate
innovation. These results can be used as an educational tool for senior managers
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who are trying to predict the future of their organizations, through long-term
forecasting and planning in order to survive in an increasingly competitive
global environment.
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[3]. Brockhoff, K., The performance of forecasting groups in computer
dialogue and face to face discussions. In: Linstone, shown to influence the
performance of the technique, H., & Turoff, M. (Eds.), The Delphi method:
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applications, Addison-Wesley, London, 1975
[4]. Cabaniss, K., Counseling and computer technology in the new millennium:
An Internet Delphi study. Digital Abstracts International, 62 (01), 87, (UMI
No. 3000284), 2001
[5]. Cramer, R.H., Issues related to the education of gifted children in the
United States: A Delphi study. Digital Abstracts International, 51 (05),
1574, (UMI No. 9028025), 1990
[6]. Creswell, J., Qualitative inquiry and research design: Choosing among five
traditions, Thousand Oaks, USA, 1998
[7]. Dalkey, N.C., Helmer, O., An Experimental Application Of The Delphi
Method. The Use Of Experts, Journal of the Institute of Management
Sciences, in: Management Science, 9, Jg., pp. 458-467, 1963
[8]. Delbecq, A., Van de Ven, A.H., Gustafson, D.H., Group techniques for
program planning. Glenview, IL: Scott, Foresman, and Co., 1975
[9]. Delbecq A., Van de Ven, A.H., Gustafson D.H., Techniques for Program
Planning: A Guide to Nominal and Delphi Processes, 1975
[10]. Ewing, R.P., The uses of futurist techniques in issues management, Public
Relations Quarterly, 4, pp. 15-18, 1979
[11]. Fink, A., Kosecoff, J., How to conduct surveys: A step-by-step guide,
London, UK, Sage Publications, 1985
[12]. Fowler, Jr., F., Survey research methods, Thousand Oaks, USA: Sage
Publications, 1993
[13]. Friend, J., A Delphi study to identify the essential tasks and functions for
ADA coordinators in public higher education. Digital Abstracts
International, 62(04), 1339, (UMI No. 3012967), 20
[14]. Goldschmidt, P.G., Scientific inquiry or political critique? Remarks on
Delphi assessment, expert opinion, forecasting, and group process by H.
Sackman. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 7, 195-213, 1975
Association Scientific and Applied Research
143
[15]. Gordon, T.J., The Optimism/Pessimism Consistency of Delphi Panelists,
TFSC 2, No. 2, 1970
[16]. Gootshcalk, P., Studies of key issues in IS management around the world,
International Jourhal of information management, 20, 169-180
[17]. Jacobs, J.M., Essential assessment criteria for physical education teacher
education programs: A Delphi study. Unpublished doctoral dissertation,
West Virginia University, Morgantown, 1996
[18]. Jones, H., Twiss, B.C., Forecasting technology for planning decision.
London, UK: Macmillan Press Ltd., 1978
[19]. Judd, R.C., Delphi Method: Computerized `Oracle' Accelerates Consensus
Formation," College & University Business 53, No. 1, July 1972
[20]. Kincaid, S.O., Web-based courses in human services: A comparison of
student and faculty perceptions of factors that facilitate or hinder learning.
Digital Abstracts International, 64 (07), 2403. (UMI No. 3098041), 2003
[21]. Lecklitner, G.L., Protecting the rights of mental patients: A view of the
future. Digital Abstracts International, 46 (01), 306, (UMI No. 8504044),
1984
[22]. Linstone, H., Turoff, M., The Delphi method: Techniques and applications.
London, UK: Addison-Wesley, 1975
[23]. Ludwig, B., Predicting the Future: Have you considered using the Delphi
Methodology? Journal of Extension, October, 1997
[24]. Mackway-Jones, K., Carley, S.D., Robson, J., Planning for major incidents
involving children by implementing a Delphi study. Archives of Disease in
Childhood 80 , 410-413, 1999
[25]. Oh, K.H., Forecasting through hierarchical Delphi. Unpublished doctoral
dissertation, The Ohio State University, Columbus, 1974
[26]. Prescott, P., Soeken, K., The potential uses of pilot work. Nursing
Research, 30, 60-62, 1989
[27]. Prestamo, A.M., A comprehensive inventory of technology and computer
skills for academic reference librarians. Digital Abstracts International, 61
(09), 3401. (UMI No. 9987367), 2000
[28]. Richards, J.E., Public health informatics: A consensus on core
competencies. Digital Abstracts International, 61 (08), 2964. (UMI No.
9983325), 2000
[29]. Rodgers, B.L., Cowles, K.V., The qualitative research audit trail: A
complex collection of documentation. Research in Nursing and Health, 16,
219 - 226, 1993
[30]. Rosenbaum, J., A College and University Curriculum Designed to Prepare
Students For Careers in Non-Broadcast Private Telecommunications: A
Delphi Method Survey of Professional Video Communicators. Digital
Abstracts International, 46 (09), 2548. (UMI No. 8525512), 1985
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[31]. Sadleowski, M., The problem of rigor in qualitative research. Advances in
Nursing Science, 8 (3), 27, 1986
[32]. Schmidt, R., Managing Delphi surveys using nonparametric statistical
techniques. Decision Sciences, 28 (3), 763-774, 1997
[33]. Schmidt, V.V., Awakening intuition: A Delphi study. Digital Abstracts
International, 56 (09), (UMI No. 9543808), 1995
[34]. Silverman, A.S., Development of content areas and objectives for a
curriculum in death and dying education for junior high school students.
Digital Abstracts International, 42 (05), 1975. (UMI No. 8122977), 1981
[35]. Skulmoski, G.J., Hartman, F.T., The Delphi Method for Graduate Research,
Journal of Information Technology Education, Vol. 6 , Iss. 1 , Publisher:
Citeseer, pp: 1-21, 2007
[36]. Taylor, R.E., Judd, L.L., Delphi method applied to tourism. In S. Witt, &
L. Moutinho, (Eds.). Tourism marketing and management handbook. New
York: Prentice Hall, 1989
[37]. Trochim, W.M.K, Research Methods Knowledge Base, 2006
[38]. Thomson, B.R., Appropriate and inappropriate uses of humor in
psychotherapy as perceived by certified reality therapists: A Delphi study
(Delphi Method). Digital Abstracts International, 47 (01), (UMI
No.8606095), 1985
[39]. Ulschak, F.L., Human resource development: The theory and practice of
need assessment. Reston, VA: Reston Publishing Company, Inc., 1983
[40]. Watson, A.C., A Delphi Study of Paradox in Therapy. Digital Abstracts
International, 43 (10), 3380, (UMI No. 8304627), 1982
[41]. Whittinghill, W.D., Identification of the initial curriculum components for
the preparation of graduate-level substance abuse counselors. Digital
Abstracts International, 61 (08), 3072, (UMI No. 9984510), 2000
[42]. Witkin, B.R., Altschuld, J.W., Planning and conducting needs assessment:
A practical guide. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, Inc., 1995
Association Scientific and Applied Research
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JOURNAL SCIENCE EDUCATION INNOVATION , VOL. 2. 2014
Association Scientific and Applied Research
International Journal
Original Contribution
ISSN 1314-9784
INCREASING STUDENT COMPETENCES
THROUGH PARTICIPATION IN PROJECT ACTIVITIES
Sonya Ilieva
SHOUMEN UNIVERSITY
"BISHOP KONSTANTIN OF PRESLAV"
DEPARTMENT OF "SOCIAL WORK"
BULGARIA
E-mail: [email protected]
ABSTRACT: Participation of students in project work has character on building their
knowledge, skills and competencies. Project activities of students is a key factor for their
personal development, as comparable to European standards professional qualification,
successful social integration and continuous improvement of the qualification. It stimulates
self-seeking scientific information and mastering of basic skills for the handling and
application in practical situations. Helps self discovery of new scientific facts, enriches
existing information focused research to critical analysis and problem solving;
implementation of innovative innovations experienced research and experimentation; transfer
of technology, method and procedures and study their effect optimizer.
KEY WORDS: project, project activity, innovation, research strategies,
experimentation, scientific research, knowledge transfer, methodologies, interdisciplinary
knowledge, scientific procedures, creative thinking, self development, akmeologiya
As a member the European family, Bulgaria should bring their education
in the light of The Lisbon Strategy in 2000 [2] and Strategy "Europe 2020"
[3] to be able to "produce" highly qualified, ready to compete at the international
labor market. This task corresponds with the complex economic environment in
which global world is situated. As the Bulgarian researcher of these processes Z.
Zhekov writes: „In the terms of economic crisis and globalizing dynamic
international competition very actual takes place the scientist’s dedication and
the active research activities. Exactly for this reason it is necessity the creation
ofsupportive environment for developing of scientific researches and
thetransforming the scientific results into economic advantages [10, p.15]”. The
author also writes that, ...Sustainable economic growth through education
quality improving is realized. This is achieved in exchange for the dry theory
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
with pragmatically approach. It is necessity the knowledge into an innovation
and into a tool for decisions taking to be changed [10, p.15]”.
The project work of students in the Department of "Social Work" in
Shumen University "Bishop Konstantin of Preslav" - Bulgaria is associated with
basic research, applied researchs, evaluation and project management, expert
consulting and other scientific and artistic activities. These activities are carried
out systematically and aim to:
•encourage interdisciplinary research;
• creating and spreading knowledge;
•development of creative thinking and expression;
•development of studies related to the needs of the society.
All this aims at upgrading knowledge and skills among the future
specialists prepared for the social sphere. As Bulgarian scientist N.
Dimitrova wrotes: „Modernization in contemporary life changes are necessary
in any educational system released to meet the contemporary requirements. [8,
p.53] The author further adds: „Project work in the training of students helps to
create a work environment that motivates self-seeking, processing and analyzing
information. [8, p.54]”.
The main forms of research activity are: student projects, conferences and
research forums, university and in collaboration with other institutions offering
social work.
From the above target arise tasks set by the Department with the
participation of students in research projects, and in their nature they are:
1.Stimulation of the interdisciplinary research;
2.Improving the quality of education through the integration of research
results in the teaching process;
3.Application of the research results and putting the skills of academic staff
in the service of education, science and public practice.
Scientific research projects are developed according to the objectives,
strategies and policies of the university. Priority is given to activities that create,
generate or discover new knowledge and contribute to the continuous encourage
of scientific work and creativity, innovate and practical applications aimed at
understanding the North-East region and Shoumen region, corresponding to
their needs.
Policy of the Department is dissemination of the scientific results through
scientific forums at international level or published in prestigious scientific
periodicals that promote its whole reputation of this university, faculty and
students.
Students work on projects besides having features while upgrading
ensures the unity of research and teaching as a defining characteristic of the
interactions between them and the academic community. It is indispensable for
Association Scientific and Applied Research
147
achieving the optimal balance of learning and research and quality improvement
of their education - cognitive activity.
According to D. Fried-Booth project activities of students is a key factor
for their personal development, as comparable to European standards
professional qualification, successful social integration and continuous
improvement of the qualification. It stimulates self-seeking scientific
information and mastering of basic skills for the handling and application in
practical situations. Helps self discovery of new scientific facts, enriches
existing information focused research to critical analysis and problem solving;
implementation of innovations experienced research and experimentation;
transfer of technology, method and procedures and study their effect optimizer
[9].
Further down in the article are listed research projects carried out by
students studying in the major "Social activities" carried out by different
methods: assisted and independent observations; fieldwork and research,
conceptual and prognostic feasibility studies and models; simulation and real
experiment, conducting formative and corrective work; comparative research,
methodical and technological innovation; statistical processing, analysis and
summary of experimental data, preparation of research reports and various
publications, participation in research and creative activities, etc. /Table № 1/
Table № 1 Design work of the students building on their potential
№
Essence of the
project
1.
Project № RD-05449/07.05.2008 –
"Social inclusion of
students from
institutions for
children through
educational forms
together with the
Pedagogy Faculty
of the Shоumen
University "Bishop
Konstantin of
Preslav" (on the
experience of
orphanage "Clover
" in Shоumen)
Project № RD-05245 of Shоumen
University "Bishop
2.
148
Study disciplines for
acquiring basic knowledge
in students
"Social pedagogy"
"Social work with groups"
"Social
work
with
individuals and families"
"Social work"
"Social legislation and social
protection"
Additional knowledge and
skills developed in students in
project work
Upgrading the knowledge about
the types of children placed in
the
institutions
and
the
differentiated approach to them.
Developing
specific
methodological approaches to
work independently, according
to the individual characteristics
of each child. Development of
unique forms of extracurricular
work relating to the ability of
the given institution.
"Social work"
"Methods of the social work"
"Social studies"
Practical realization of the
knowledge in terrain, consistent
with
the
ethno-social
Association Scientific and Applied Research
3.
4.
Konstantin of
Preslav"
"Formation of
social competence
of social work of
the students
studying in the
professional Social
activities through
participation in
planning,
management and
evaluation of
projects for
develop" /together
with a team of the
University Friedensau,
Germany /
Shoumen, 2009
Project №
5192/2011 of
Shоumen
University "Bishop
Konstantin of
Preslav" "Futurological
forecasting for the
future of social
services in
Bulgaria"
Project № RD-08305/15.03.2013 of
Shоumen
University "Bishop
Konstantin of
Preslav"
"Socialization
through art
therapy in
orphanage "Clover
" in Shоumen
"Sociology"
"Working on project"
"Innovations in the social
work"
"Social work with ethnic and
social differences"
differences
in
the
local
community. Application of
specific approaches, arised in
movement
during
the
fieldwork. Innovate of a causal
approaches called for by
working with individuals and
families. Experience of working
with other institutions whose
field of work is social.
Processing of an effective
behavior in case of extreme
social
conflict,
requiring
immediate actions of social
workers. Actually managing the
project
for
the
social
development
of
isolated
communities.
"Sociology"
Development of knowledge and
"Social studies"
skills for long-term forecasting.
"Forecasting, planning and Effective participation in the
modeling in social work"
development of futurological
"Social work"
forecasts by Delphi method,
Ringi method, brainstorming,
Content - analysis and others.
Acquiring knowledge about
science futurology, which is not
included in the curriculum of
students.
"Sociology"
Exceeding the theoretical idea
"Art therapy"
of socialization through direct
"Innovations in the social work with children living in an
work"
institution. Awareness of their
"Management of the social specific
socialization.
institutions"
Application in the actual
"Social
work
with practice of various forms of art
individuals and families"
therapy provide a more
accelerated, active involvement
of institutional children in the
society.
These and other projects end with student compilations of scientific
production, where participants presented their work and significant conclusions
arising therefrom [4], [5], [6], [7].
By participating in research, project work students in "Social activities"
self-empowerment in the context of the writings of N. Dimitrova: „Project
Association Scientific and Applied Research
149
work allows students to integrate their knowledge from different fields to apply
them in practice and reach new knowledge, ideas and material values in solving
a problem [Нели, 54]”. Moreover, she connects the work in projects the
akmeology which sets as: „Science "akmeology" is a branch of psychology and
the relatively new scientific knowledge … examines the regularities and
mechanisms that provide opportunities for every individual to reach its peak of
development. She studied the laws and principles of human potential when
reaching its highest level of development [8, p.54]”. Thus in akmeological
context [1] project work of the students appeared not only as a process of
upgrading knowledge, but as a process of self-development. Her opinion is
completely covered with that of A. Derkach and V. Zazikin on the discussed
problem [1].
In its scientific publication Z. Zhekov expressed the opinion that: In the
European Union a significant potential in terms of the researchunits, science and
technology parks is made that serve as centers of knowledge creation and for
their transformation into innovation results (radically new and/or improved
processes, products and services). Nevertheless and especially in the times of
crisis the European research community a number of challenges is faced. [10,
p.18]”. But in this connection it should be said in the final, that the Department
"Social work" of the Shоumen University - Bulgaria occupies a significant place
in the infrastructure of the realized design work with his students.
REFERENCES:
[1]. Akmeology: Учебное пособие / A. Derkach, V. Zazikin. — SPb.: Peter,
2003 (Series "Study Guide")
[2]. Strategy "Europe 2020"
[3]. Collection "Active life of elderly people" - on project "Active life of older
people" ed. of S. Ilieva, Shoumen, 2012
[4]. Collection "Future of the social services in Bulgaria. Futurological
forecast", 2009 - on the project:" Futurological forecasting for developing
of social services in Bulgaria" ed.. of S.Ilieva, Shoumen, 2011
[5]. Collection "Problems of the social and the special pedagogy," ed.
Department of "Social and special pedagogy" at Shoumen Universuty
“Konstantin Bishop of Preslav”, ed. of S. Ilieva, Shoumen, 2008
[6]. Collection of essays on the topic: "The institutions for children - "for"or"
against" on the project: "Social inclusion of students from institutions for
children through educational forms together with the Pedagogy Faculty of
the Shоumen University "Bishop Konstantin of Preslav" (on the experience
of orphanage "Clover " in Shоumen) ed. of S. Ilieva, 2008
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
[7]. Dimitrova. N., Formation of personal qualities students by working on
projects like problem of acmeology. Journal Scientific and Applied
Research, Association Scientific and Applied Research, Volume 4, 2013
[8]. Fried-Booth, D., Resource Books for Teachers: Project Work (New
Edition), Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2002
[9]. The Lisbon Strategy in 2000
[10]. Zhekov, Z., Sustainable development - Education, Scientific researches
and innovations, Journal Science Education Innovation , Association
Scientific and Applied Research, International Journal, vol. 1. 2013
Association Scientific and Applied Research
151
JOURNAL SCIENCE EDUCATION INNOVATION , VOL. 2. 2014
Association Scientific and Applied Research
International Journal
Original Contribution
ISSN 1314-9784
CLIMATE CHANGE AS A FACTOR OF SECURITY
Donika Dimanova
DEPARTMENT OF NATIONAL SECURITY, FACULTY OF TECHNICAL SCIENCES,
KONSTANTIN PRESLAVSKY UNIVERSITY OF SHUMEN
E-MAIL: [email protected]
ABSTRACT: As the climate change is real and we cannot stop the anomalies in
temperature, precipitation and sea level rise, a global challenge is to learn how to manage
climate risks when appropriate. Climate change is a long term process. While short-term
changes may be less extreme than the anticipated ones in the next 100-200 years, and risks
can be significantly different from today. It is therefore necessary flexibility to adapt to the
risks associated with climatic extremes and the formulation of strategies for dealing with
them. Successful implementation of the policy for response to climate change can be made
only if there is appropriate awareness and behavior of both individuals, businesses, and the
general public and governmental decision-makers nationwide.
KEY WORDS: climate change, risks, appropriate, security.
Introduction
According to the draft strategy for disaster risk reduction 2014-2020,
statistics NIMH Academy of Sciences and the Third National Action Plan on
Climate Change for the period 2013-2020 and others. In the coming decades,
climate changes are expected to lead to increased frequency and scale of
disasters. More frequent and more intense storms and floods, long-term droughts
and devastating forest fires can have a significant detrimental effect on society.
Therefore, it is necessary to unite the efforts of all institutions and their active
involvement in the activities for the implementation of flexible mechanisms for
compensation and the weakening of climate change. This policy will
significantly reduce the social, economic and environmental damages and
losses.
Climate change is a wide-ranging term that refers to climate change on the
ground in long period of time. Often synonymous with climate change, the term
global warming is used. Projections of climate change include higher
temperatures, heavier rainfall and snow storms, melting snow and ice, rising sea
levels, more intense cyclones, etc. Climate system is dynamic and constantly
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
changing. Changes do not appear linearly over time and they are not carried out
evenly throughout the world.
There are different views on the causes of climate change. Imposed
perception is that the main cause of global warming are greenhouse gases [3].
Their increase is largely due to the use of fossil fuels, although deforestation,
land use change and agriculture also have significant influence. In an attempt to
slow down the process of global warming, in 1992 at the World Summit on the
problems of the Earth in Rio de Janeiro, 194 countries signed the "Framework
Convention of the United Nations Climate Change" (UNFCCC). It aims to
stabilize "greenhouse gas" emissions levels from 1990. In 1997 in Kyoto was
signed an accompanying Protocol to the UNFCCC, which provides these
emissions to be reduced by about 5% compared to 1990 levels. In 2007 at the
13th Conference on Climate Change in Bali, a decision was made to prepare a
new global agreement on climate change by the end of 2009. So at the end of
2009, at the 15th Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC in Copenhagen, 130
leaders of States and Governments held a historical meeting. A political
agreement was reached on certain commitments and actions of countries in the
short term that they would take to meet the challenges of climate change
globally.
Exposition:
What is the current global outlook?
The "Report on the State of Climate 2009" [10] issued by the U.S. National
Oceanic and Atmospheric office in July 2010 and "Fourth Assessment Report"
of the Intergovernmental Panel of the UN Climate Change (IPCC) [3], have
published opinions and results of the joint work of 303 scientists from 48
countries, according to which our planet undoubtedly suffers warming over the
last half century, and that every decade on Earth since 1980 has been hotter than
the previous one [1], [4], [11]. Analyzed ten key indicators show that global
warming is an undeniable fact. Indicators that have record levels [8]: the higher
ground temperatures; higher temperatures over the oceans; high heat content of
the oceans; higher air temperatures near the surface of the earth; higher
humidity; higher sea surface temperatures; sea level rise; reduction of sea ice;
reduction of snow cover; shrinking glaciers.
From the data in "Fourth Assessment Report", Space Research Institute
"Goddard", National Climatic Data Center and others, it is obvious that [3], [6],
[9]:
 The temperature rise of the air in the 20th century was the highest
compared to previous centuries in the last 1000 years;
• The world has warmed by an average of 0.76 ° C compared to preindustrial levels and temperatures are rising at an increasing pace;
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• The rate of increase in the average global surface temperature since 1976
has almost been three times greater than the rate of increase in temperature of
the air throughout the 20th century;
• The average temperature in the world in 2013 was 0.62 degrees Celsius
higher than the average in the twentieth century (13.9 degrees) and amounted to
14.52 degrees. The same anomaly was observed in 2003.
• During the period 1993-2003, the sea levels have risen almost twice as
fast compared to the previous three decades;
• The area of snow cover has decreased in most regions of the world,
especially in the spring. In the Northern Hemisphere snow cover has decreased
by 10% since the 60s of the last century;
• The average amount of sea ice in the Arctic has decreased by about 40%
in recent decades;
• The maximum length of time in frozen ground has decreased by about 7%
in the second half of the twentieth century.
• Spring sets earlier and earlier each year, resulting in a change in
biological life cycle;
• There is a migration of plant and animal species to the pole widths;
• The average date of freezing of rivers and lakes over the last 150 years is
late by about 5.8 days a century, whereas the date of thaw comes with 6.5 days a
century earlier.
• Since the 1970s, the duration and intensity of droughts have increased
over large areas, especially in the tropics and subtropics.
Since the beginning of the 20th century rainfall over northern Europe have
increased by 10 to 40%, while rainfall in some regions of southern Europe have
decreased by about 20% and droughts are more commonly seen.
Figura 1 shows the abnormality in the global average surface temperature
in the period 1856 - 2005.
Fig. 1 Anomalies in global average surface temperature 1856 - 2005.
Facts about Bulgaria [5], [6], [9]:
• Since the end of 1970 Bulgaria has seen a trend towards warming.
• In the second half of the twentieth century winters are mild, with
temperatures higher than normal.
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
• For the period 1971-2012, the average surface air temperature in the
country has increased by 1.5 ° C.
•The average annual temperature in 2010, 2011 and 2012 is by more than 1
° C above the climate norm. The year 2012 is the 15th one in succession with
temperatures higher than usual for the country.
• 2003 and 2013 share fourth place in the ranking of the warmest years
since surveys are performed. So far, the absolute record belongs to 2010,
followed by 2005 and 1998.
• The longest droughts have been observed in 1940s and the last two
decades of the 20th century, and the most significant droughts - in 1945 and
2000.
• There are more and longer periods of drought followed by severe storms
and flooding with heavy damage and casualties.
• There is an increased frequency of extreme weather and climate events
such as a significant increase in the average number of days with daily rainfall
over 100 mm - about 30% between 1991 and 2007 in comparison to the base
period (1961 -1990); increase of the recorded in the meteorological network
cases with heavy rainfall; higher rates of spring-summer type clouds with rain,
thunderstorms and hail in the winter months like January and February;
increased frequency of the average number of days with thunderstorms and hail
in April and September during 1991 and 2006, compared to the same base
period.
• The annual amplitude between the maximum and minimum air
temperature is decreasing - the minimum temperature is increasing more rapidly
than the maximum.
• Snow months in the mountains reduce their length, and the thickness of
the snow cover shows steady trend towards thinning.
• The upper border lines of the deciduous forests are shifting to higher
altitudes.
•Data from phenological observations show advance of 7-15 days in the
development in different climatic regions, unambiguous evidence of warming
over the last 30 years in comparison to previous periods.
Figura 2 presents anomalies of air temperature in Bulgaria about the period
1961-1990, ° C, according to data from the NIMH-BAS. In red are marked
positive anomalies of mean annual temperature for the period 1961-1990, the
blue - negative anomalies of mean annual temperature for the period 1961-1990,
in green - variations in the anomalies of mean annual temperature, and yellow the linear trend in the anomalies of mean annual temperature for the period
1971-2010.
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Fig.2. Anomalies of air temperature in Bulgaria for the period 1961-1990, ° C.
The next Table 1 summarizes the data for meteorological parameters in
Bulgaria for the past 25 years, according to NIMH. These are values of
precipitation, maximum daily precipitation and snow cover during the period
1988 - 2012.
Expected problems such as water scarcity, migration of millions of socalled "refugees because of the environment" and an increased need for disaster
relief, loss of biodiversity and farmland, and financial shocks from the effects of
these problems on global markets, will have a big impact on a global scale while
we manage to adapt to changes.
One of the main findings of the analysis report by British economist
Nicholas Stern [8], published in October 2006, has been that inaction against
climate change would cost humanity 5% of global GDP per year, accumulated
damage can impose costs in the amount of 20 % of global GDP.
Table 1. Meteorological parameters in Bulgaria for the past 25 years
156
Yeаr
Rаinfall, mm
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
579
546
459
641
456
475
528
697
599
662
678
633
377
549
Маx. day-andnight rаinfall, mm
197,5
164,0
135,5
182,0
138,0
92,4
263,0
135,4
122,2
110,6
157,6
268,5
160,0
100,5
Маx. height of
snow cover, cm
60
44
38
45
33
50
31
64
44
55
61
54
65
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Теmperature of air,
°С
11,9
12,4
11,8
10,6
11,7
11,6
13,0
11,2
11,0
11,3
12,1
12,1
12,4
12,3
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
743
600
604
924
597
696
496
676
788
501
660
158,0
176,0
136,0
288,0
300,8
291,0
224,0
132,0
200,9
124,6
210,0
55
47
36
70
43
32
39
52
49
32
220
11,9
11,4
11,6
11,1
11,5
12,6
12,3
12,2
12,1
11,3
11,9
Compared to this, taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and
mitigate the effects of global warming is estimated at 1% of global GDP. A
positive effect of the transition to a low carbon is estimated at 2.5 trillion U.S.
dollars, and by 2050 the markets for low carbon technologies could reach cash
flow of around 500 billion dollars.
According to the National Report on the status and conservation of the
environment in the Republic of Bulgaria (2012), Third National Action Plan on
Climate Change, NIHM BAS and others, consequences of climate change have
a significant impact on water resources, human health, ecology, ecosystems,
agriculture and forestry, infrastructure, energy, industry, tourism, insurance, etc.
About one third of the world's population lives in areas where there is a
shortage of water. By the year 2025 this number is expected to grow to 5 billion.
The incidence of flooding on the greater part of Europe is likely to increase. The
risk of continuing limitation of water resources in southern Europe will likely
increase. Mountain areas are facing a reduction of snow and negative impact on
winter tourism. The reduction of soil freezing in mountain areas can lead to
problems of infrastructure. The majority of glaciers in the European mountains
melt.
Policy of Bulgaria to mitigate climate change [6], [9].
National policy to mitigate climate change altered substantially after the
accession of Bulgaria to the European Union on 1 January 2007. Policy is
determined by its international commitments under the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change (ratified in 1995) and the Kyoto Protocol
(2002). The commitments of the state arising from the obligations under
European legislation in the field of climate and harmonization of our legislation:
Implementing the commitments of Bulgaria, as an EU member, the state
has taken the following measures [5], [8]:
• Implemented are the provisions of Directive 2003/87/EC, establishing a
scheme for greenhouse emission allowance trading within the Community;
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157
• Developed and approved by the European Commission is a National Plan
for allocation of greenhouse gas emissions;
• Steps have been taken to introduce the newly adopted EU legislation in
the field of climate (legislative package "Climate and energy") and legislation to
include aviation in the Community scheme for trading emissions (Directive
2008/101 / EC);
• In 2010 is reviewed and revised the National System for greenhouse gas
inventory in order to improve accountability under the guidelines of the
UNFCCC and the requirements of the law;
• Established and functioning is a Green Investment Scheme through which
are financed projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions;
• In 2012 is updated the National Action Plan on Climate Change.
Currently the Third National Action Plan on Climate Change for the period
2013 - 2020 is being implemented, adopted by the Council of Ministers № 439
on 01.06.2012.
Its main strategic objective is to outline the framework for action in the
fight against climate change for the period 2013 - 2020, and to direct the
country's efforts to actions that reduce the negative impact of climate change and
the implementation of commitments. It sets out specific measures to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions in all sectors. These are in accordance with the
national policy in the field of climate change and the potential of the national
economy for the reduction of emissions.
Successful implementation of a policy to limit climate change can be made
only on awareness and behavior of both individuals, businesses and the general
public and decision-making bodies at national and global scales. With the advent
of newer technologies, greater use of satellite data and advanced mathematical
models more accurate seasonal forecasts are made [7], [2]. In the world there are
over 20 centers that deal with modeling of global and regional climate. These
include the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Germany), Hadley Centre
forecast and climate research (UK), Canadian Centre for Climate, the Australian
CSIRO model center, Geophysical Laboratory of Fluid Dynamics (USA) and
many others (IPCC, 2001).
National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH-BAS) is also
working in this direction, taking into account the recommendations of the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) and its sister international organizations.
NIMH has two main tasks - information and active protection of society.
Information security means the timely transmission of the responsible
government bodies and the public, early warnings of future or developing
hazardous weather phenomena across the country. Active protection means the
development and implementation of methods and tools for influencing
atmospheric processes leading to dangerous phenomena. These two approaches
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
to the protection of society are practically the only real opportunity to counter
alleged climate change.
Conclusion:
Climate change is a long term process. While short-term changes may be
less extreme than anticipated changes in the next 100-200 years, and risks can be
significantly different from today. It is therefore necessary flexibility to adapt to
the risks associated with climatic extremes and the formulation of strategies for
dealing with them. Adaptation is essentially a modification of existing practices
to reduce negative impacts of climate change. Climate change is likely to
exacerbate existing threats of flooding and water shortages and affect all sectors
of the economy.
Key areas that may be affected by climate change, according to projections
by the Intergovernmental Panel on UN Climate Change (IPCC), are [3]: water
resources, ecosystems, agriculture, land use and forestry, coastal line, human
health, infrastructure, economy, energy, insurance, tourism, industry and
transport.
All countries, particularly developing ones, will feel the effects of climate
change. Therefore there is a need to identify appropriate measures to adapt to the
expected change. Expected impacts of climate change will reflect in more severe
and more frequent natural disasters such as typhoons, floods, droughts, etc.
Since the exact consequences of climate change are still uncertain, it is
necessary to develop flexible strategies. These strategies should focus on
improving the sustainability of society, including to natural disasters.
Strategies related to climate change must be integrated with strategies to
manage the risk of disasters. By reducing the vulnerability of areas threatened
by disasters, people will be better adapted to climate change and its impacts. It is
important to provide timely and effective protection of infrastructure. Climate
change may alter rainfall patterns significantly. It is envisaged that the extreme
rainfall followed by floods to increase in many countries around the world - in
cash and in intensity. Ports and other vital facilities, elements of the
infrastructure will also be affected by climate change. Raise sea levels and
storms will likely reduce the effectiveness of breakwaters.
Acknowledgment:
This paper is supported by the Project BG051PO00l - 3.3.06 - 0003
“Building and steady development of PhD students, post-PhD and young
scientists in the areas of the natural, technical and mathematical sciences”. The
Project is realized by the financial support of the Operative Program
“Development of the human resources” of the European social fund of the
European Union
Association Scientific and Applied Research
159
References:
[1] Changnon, Stanley A., The Climate Event of the Century, London, Oxford
University Press, 2000.
[2] D. Dimitrov, “Building controlled approach systems using specialized
technical resources” MATTEX 2012, Shumen University.
[3] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
[4] Jones Phil, Global Temperature Record, University of East Anglia.
[5] National report on the status and protection of the environment in Bulgaria,
2012.
[6] NIMH-BAS, "Climate Change 2012".
[7] Stoykov E., Methods for transformation of spatial Cartesian coordinates
(X, Y, Z), obtained by the GPS measurements in ellipsoidal coordinates and
height (B, L, H), Varna 2014, Liepaya, Latvia.
[8] Third National Action Plan on Climate Change for the period 2013-2020.
[9] www.meteo.bg
[10] www.ncdc.noaa.gov
[11] www.wmo.int
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JOURNAL SCIENCE EDUCATION INNOVATION , VOL. 2. 2014
Association Scientific and Applied Research
International Journal
Original Contribution
ISSN 1314-9784
STATISTICAL MODEL OF INCIDENCE OF FIRES IN BULGARIA
Donika Dimanova
KONSTANTIN PRESLAVSKY UNIVERSITY OF SHUMEN, SHUMEN, BULGARIA,
E-MAIL: [email protected]
ABSTRACT: The report justifies the thesis that the observed trend of warming and
drought, and increased frequency of extreme weather and climate events in recent years is
one of the causes of the fires on the territory of Bulgaria. Their effects can be crisis situations
with significant material and financial damage, and sometimes casualties. Therefore, to
improve the performance of state bodies involved in prevention is necessary to make
scientifically based estimates of the incidence and causes of fires in the next few years.
Solving this important practical task is possible by developing a statistical model of the fires.
KEY WORDS: statistical model, fires, crisis situations
Introduction
A possibility of crisis and escalation of the situation in a fire can be
expected as adverse weather or intentional actions of the people. As a result,
fires can occur in urban areas, recreational areas, and warehouses with
explosive, toxic and flammable materials to be threatened. Fires can disrupt rail
and road transport, to inflict significant financial and environmental damage
associated with significant destruction of forest resources and environmental
pollution in the affected areas.
In this regard, the objectives of the report are:
1. To examine the trend of increasing number of fires for 1 year on the
territory of Bulgaria;
2. To justify measures that improve the work of state bodies involved in
preventing or eradicating the harmful consequences of emergencies.
The report justifies the thesis that the observed trend of warming and
drought, and increased frequency of extreme weather and climate events in
recent years is one of the causes of the fires on the territory of Bulgaria.
Exposition
Over the last decade due to climate change long droughts occurring in
summer and autumn are typical, causing fires and influence. According to the
General Directorate "Fire Safety and Protection of Population" (GDPBZN), their
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161
number is constantly increasing. The distribution of fires for the period 1995 –
2013 is shown in Figure 1 and Table 1 [1], [4].
Fig.1 Statistics on fires on the territory of Bulgaria
year
fires with
damage
fires
without
damage
total
number
of fires
2000
Table 1
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
7621
7357
6982
8137
8165 11670 9244
7647
8553
7980
7437
9486
7793
14256 10921 26802 21778 10803 17382 15846
15058
16843
14775 22393 19086 38472 31022 18450 25935 23826
year
2005
fires with
7540
damage
fires
11430
without
damage
total
18970
number
of fires
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
8548
10501
9659
8970
8136
9487
9724
8504
20542
27686
28439
21249 16894 32403 35209
24399
29090
38187
38098
30219 25030 41890 44933
32903
As seen, there is a trend of increase in fires. And it is notable that the
growth rate of fires without damage is greater than the fires with damage. This is
due to the large number of fires occurring outside urban areas, affecting
primarily forest and agricultural areas. Many of these fires destroy or threaten
national parks and biodiversity within them.
Fires occur for various reasons and cannot be predicted. The most common
reasons for their occurrence are two - of human activities and natural
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phenomena. Most fires are caused by man, and fires from natural events are
relatively rare. Average no more than 4% of fires in forest areas have occurred
naturally.
The distribution of the fires according to the causes of their occurrence are
shown in Table 2 [4].
Table 2
Reason of
occurence
short circuit
heaters
open fire
negligence
technical
failure
natural
phenomena
2003
2004 2005
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2120 2115
685
671
2149 2215 2496 2288 2183 2125 2101 2373 2154
711 756 715 661 685 625 689 723 638
1266
1241
1087 1468 2563 2390 1975 1755 2577 2677 1993
914
887
836
926 1031 987
957
821
897
811
873
15
87
116
189
45
48
56
65
58
79
69
intentional
292
606
585
655
848
844
866
720
770
632
621
unidentified
1030
1366
1140 1445 1748 1470 1349 1177 1484 1539 1428
child’s play
crisis events
243
4002
257
4467
230 272 243 176 164 143 177 104
3801 3017 6245 6319 2082 1630 2185 3010
119
From the table it can be concluded that the largest share of fires is caused
by the burning of stubble near forests, short circuit and power lines, improper
handling of electrical appliances, technical malfunction of machinery and
equipment and crisis events (accidents and catastrophes).
Based on an analysis of the harmful effects and the available
meteorological data in Table 3 and Figure 2 shows the annual number of fires of
natural phenomena on the territory of Bulgaria in the period 2003-2013.
Table 3
YEAR
Fires of natural
phenomena
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
15
87
116 189
45
48
56
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65
58
79
69
163
Fires of natural phenomena 2003 - 2013
200
150
100
50
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Fig.2 Distribution of fires by natural phenomena in Bulgaria for years
To improve the performance of state bodies involved in preventing or
eradicating the harmful consequences of emergencies, it is necessary to make
scientifically sound estimates of the frequency of fires in the next few years.
Solving this important practical task is possible by developing a statistical model
of the intensity of the fires in the country.
As is known [2], the main statistical method for the study of relationships
in which the factor variables and resulting variables are quantitative characters is
regression analysis. In its magnitude to be estimated (extrapolated) for a future
period of time is represented by a mathematical function of time, called the
smoothing function, whose parameters are determined by point statistical
estimates based on data in previous moments of time. Very often we choose the
smoothing function to be a polynomial of s-th degree. This assumption is
justified by the fact that under the famous calculus theorem of BolzanoWeierstrass, any smooth function can be represented with arbitrary precision by
a polynomial.
Considering the quantity (number) Де(t ) of fires for t-th year, we can
represent it by the following polynomial:
Де(t )  d 0  d1.t  d 2 .
t2
ts
 ...  d s . ,
2!
s!
(1)
as the degree s of the polynomial depends on the physical nature of the studied
variable.
Coefficients of the polynomial d  d0 , d1, d2 ,..., d s  mean the initial value
of the number of fires per year, rate of increase (decrease) in the number of fires,
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
acceleration of increase (decrease) in the number of fires. As noted, they are
subject to statistical evaluation.
Evaluation of the coefficients of the polynomial d  d0 , d1, d2 ,..., d s  are
determined by the method of maximum likelihood function, while playing the
role of interference errors listing the number of fires per year that most often
have a normal distribution with zero mean importance.
After logarithm of L (dˆ ) and determination of partial derivatives for each of
the evaluated variables d0 , d1, d 2 ,..., d s , a system of equations of likelihood is
compiled:
 L(dˆ )
0

d 0


 ..........
 L(dˆ )
 d  0

s

(2)
Solving (2) the algorithms for evaluation, we obtain the following:
dˆi  f (d 0 , d1, ..., d s ) .
(3)
Assume that the degree of the polynomial is s = 2 and from (1) for Де(t )
we have the following second order polynomial:
t2
Де(t )  d 0  d1 .t  d 2 .
2!
(4)
Moreover, the coefficients of the polynomial (4) have the following
physical meaning:
1) d 0 is the starting number of fires ( per year);
2) d1 is the rate of increase of fires;
3) d 2 is the acceleration, by which the number of fires changes.
In Gaussian law of distribution of errors in counting the number of fires for
1 year, the system (2) is prepared by the so-called method of least squares
(MLS). In this method, the estimates of the parameters d 0 , d1 , d 2 ,..., d s are
obtained by finding the minimum weighted sum of squared deviations of the
measured values of the smoothing parameter (i.e. the number of fires for 1 year)
compared with its model (1). In this particular case you need to find the
minimum of the function:


t2
L(d 0 , d1 , d 2 )   wi  d 0  d1.ti  d 2 . i  ri 


2!
i 0 

n 1
2
(5)
Here, the following conventions are used:
Association Scientific and Applied Research
165
1) L(d 0 , d1 , d 2 ) is the weighted deviation of the number of fires for 1 year
compared to the model (4);
2) t0  2003  2003  0, t1  2004  2003  1, ..., ti  2003i  2003  i, ...
are
the
discrete moments of time (years) during which the measurements were made
(i.e. fires are listed);
3) ri is the number of fires for the i-th year;
4) wi  1 is the "weight", by which is reported the number of fires in the
 ri
i-th year;
5)  ri is the average - quadratic error in determining the number of fires in
the i-th year.
6) n is the total number of years in which fires were reported.
The minimum of (5) is determined after aligning to 0 of the partial
derivatives of L(d 0 , d1 , d 2 ) in accordance with (2):
 L(d 0 , d1 , d 2 ) n1


ti2

  0
w
d
d
t
d
r
.
2
.
.
.






i
0
1
i
2
i

d
2
!

i

0
0



 L(d 0 , d1 , d 2 ) n1


ti2
  wi .2. d 0  d1 .ti  d 2 .  ri .ti  0

d
2!

i 0
1



2
 L(d 0 , d1 , d 2 ) n1
 t2

t
  wi .2. d 0  d1 .t i  d 2 . i  ri  i  0

2!
d 2

i 0
 2!

(6)
After detection of the brackets and the reduction of 2 in (6), the result is:
n 1
n 1
n 1
1 n1

2
d
w
d
w
t
d
w
t
wi .ri
.
.
.







i
i
i
i
i
0
1
2

2! i 0
i 0
i 0
i 0
 n1
n 1
n 1
1 n1

2
3
d
w
t
d
w
t
d
w
t
wi .ri .t i
.
.
.
.



 0 i i


i i
1 i i
2
2
!
i
i
i
i

0

0

0

0
 n1
n 1
n 1
1 n1
d
2
3
4
w
t
d
w
t
d
w
t
wi .ri .t i2
.
.
.
.





i i
i i
1 i i
2
 0
2! i 0
i 0
i 0
 i 0
(7)
System of equations (7) is simplified taking into account the following
circumstances:
1) Apparently the precision of the measurements in different years is the
same, i.e.  ri   0  const ; it allows (7) to reduce the constants wi  1  1 ;
 ri
0
2) the time of measurement can be represented with integers
t0  0, t1  1, ..., ti  i, ...
After consideration of these circumstances (7), we can obtain the
following model for 11 years, including the years 2003 to 2013.
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
Model: After substitution in (7) with the data from Table 3 for the period
2003 – 2013, we can obtain the following system of equations:
1

11.d0  55.d1  385d 2  326

2

1
 55.d0  385.d1  3025.d 2  1794
2

385.d0  3025.d1  1 25333d 2  13236

2
(8)
From (8) for the coefficients of the polynomial (4) we can have:
d 0  163.3 ; d1  27.86 ; d 2  3.77
(9)
Therefore, the pattern of change of fires for 1 year as a function of time is
as follows:
t2
(10)
Де(t )  163.3  27.86t  3.77
2!
The calculated values Де(t ) for each of the years studied and the trend of
development for the next five years are shown in Table 5 and Figure 3, as the
trend is colored green.
Таble 4
Years (t)
N of fires
Де (t)
Years (t)
Де (t)
2003
15
163.3
2014
84.93
2004
87
137.24
2015
100.42
2005
116
115.12
2016
119.69
2006
189
85.37
2017
142.72
2007
45
82.02
2018
84.93
2008
48
71.13
2009
56
64.2
2010
65
60.65
2011
58
61.06
2012
79
65.25
2013
69
73.2
Fig.3. Model of the intensity of fires for the period 2003 - 2013 throughout the
country, as has been reported, and the trend for the next five years.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
167
From research done on the model of change in the number of fires per year
in the country, shows that despite the observed warming and drought globally, in
the short term there was a slight decline in fires caused by natural phenomena.
Model (Fig. 3) covering the period 2003 - 20013 is optimistic. The curve of
growth of fires is smooth and after calculating the trend for the next 5 years, we
can see even increasing of the number of fires.
Conclusion:
Fires can be considered as a serious environmental, social, economic and
business problem. They can occur in the national economy and lead to a disaster
situation, endanger the life and health of many people, cause significant property
damage and environmental pollution.
High risk for people have fires of technogenic character. Fires in the energy
system, and especially Nuclear Power Plants, could be very dangerous, as well
as in the chemical and petrochemical industry. Fires in vehicles transporting
large quantities of flammable and combustible materials is another example [3].
In terms of global warming and drought, an increase of fire danger in forest
ecosystems is expected. In this context, in fighting forest fires and managing
forest fires should be designed and carried out with similar activities as in the
Mediterranean countries, where all or the majority of the territory is designated
as highly endangered.
Generally, the analysis of the statistical model of the intensity of fires in the
report shows a smooth upward trend in the medium term. Therefore, to address
emergencies such as fires, action is needed at all levels - national, regional and
local. These actions include a wide range of preventive, legal, administrative,
organizational, and other measures.
Acknowledgment
This paper is supported by the Project BG051PO00l-3.3.06-0003 “Building
and steady development of PhD students, post-PhD and young scientists in the
areas of the natural, technical and mathematical sciences”. The Project is
realized by the financial support of the Operative Program “Development of the
human resources” of the European social fund of the European Union.
References:
[1] National Program for Disaster Protection 2014-2018
[2] Rumshiskij L. Z., Mathematical processing of experiment results, Moscow,
1971
[3] The third national plan for action on climate change for the period 20132020, MEW, Sofia, 2012
[4] www.nspbzn.mvr
168
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JOURNAL SCIENCE EDUCATION INNOVATION , VOL. 2. 2014
Association Scientific and Applied Research
International Journal
Original Contribution
ISSN 1314-9784
DEVELOPMENT OF WARFARE AND COUNTER-TERRORISM
Kalin Krastev1, Hristo Hristov2
1PhD
STUDENT AT THE UNIVERSITY OF LIBRARY AND INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY - SOFIA INSTITUTE FOR RESEARCH AND PhD TRAINING
2DEPARTMENT
OF MANAGE SECURITY SYSTEM, FACULTY OF TECHNICAL
SCIENCES, KONSTANTIN PRESLAVSKY UNIVERSITY OF SHUMEN
ABSTRACT: In the XX-th and early XXI-st century оnе phenomenon has more acutely
occurred in social and political life and although it has been going along with human
development over centuries, today it contraries to the objective needs of the time, gets
alarming proportions and becomes the primary global problem. This phenomenon is
terrorism. It changes its forms аnd it is attaining more and more dangerous character for
people through spreading to more countries; it is creating new threats to national security
and
political
stability
of
countries
and
international
relations.
Today terrorism is a form of undeclared war against civilization and freedom of democratic
societies and countries.
KEY WORDS: warfare, terrorism, peace-imposing, peacekeeping operations, terrorist
organization, humanitarian crisis.
I. Introduction:
Historical changes in the international security environment and particularly
the new security challenges, one of which is terrorism, have led to the
development of military and associated changes in the armed forces, including
the army. Terrorism is also evolving as becoming more and more comprehensive,
multi-faceted and aggressive. Studying its nature, manifestations, organization,
goals and objectives involves presumably an adequate response to public security
system. As far as terrorism is using fighting methods and means to achieve its
goals and objectives, it needs the military response to its challenges. Such a
response is mainly the prerogative to the internal security authorities that in
conjunction with the army forces together are putting into practice the tools of
warfare. Nevertheless, the development of the military science provides the army
structure with operational capabilities to successful counteraction to asymmetric
threats of terrorism. This involves refinements of the combat activity through
Association Scientific and Applied Research
169
new approaches to solve the fundamental issues that characterize the functioning
of the army structures.
They involve creating:
• New structural and functional models of specialized military units with
the appropriate manning, weapons and training;
• Competent command units;
• Аn interaction with other national departments and international military
units.
Social activities on the occasion of and in connection with the war as a
social phenomenon refer to warfare.
Such a definition implies a broader reflexivity for this specific activity that
we can rightly define as "living totality" [1]. It is important to note that in the
process of combat activity’s improvement is necessary to select the correct and
proper strategy, according to L. Pashov is “Each action aiming to reach the goal
is a way of using the resource, as well as each way of using active agents is
called strategy” [2].
II. Contents:
Terrorist activity is illegal in accordance with international and domestic
law of each country. Each terrorist act is one or another kind of criminal offence.
Perpetrators of terrorist activities use modern technical devices and
technologies; there is an existing threat related to the usage of super-powerful
weapons and extremely dangerous devices, including nuclear, chemical and
biological weapons. In recent years, terrorism presents itself as one of the major
threats to the security of individual countries, regions and international security
as a whole. Today the threat of terrorism has many dimensions. Тhe fear
psychosis as well as the feeling of instability that terrorism creates in the society
inevitably influence upon the political, social and economic decisions in
national, regional and global aspect. As a part of democratic world Bulgaria is
facing a common problem with terrorism too. Acceptance of the country as a
full member in NATO and the future membership in the European Union as well
as signing a number of international agreements related to counteracting to
terrorist activity, ratified by the Republic of Bulgaria, all together define its
commitment to actively participate in the fight against terrorism. This is possible
only with the mutual and joint efforts of all governmental bodies.
“Terrorism is performance, incitement or assisting a criminal act which
purpose is to cause fear and uncertainty among its victims and society, to force
them to do things desired by the perpetrators. The act adopts nature of
international terrorism when it is prepared or committed in the territory of two
or more countries.”
In the contemporary information society the object of terrorist cyber attacks
has become the electronic control systems of life-providing economic systems of
the armed forces, other governmental bodies and the private business sector.
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
Most of the committed in cyberspace crimes are based on gaps and weaknesses
in computer and network systems. [3]
The main characteristics of terrorism occur in several ways: 1) primordially
the damage of one terrorist act has great scope and the objects of its content are
characterized with great variety; 2) the coverage of the harmful impact is usually
wider than the range of individuals on which the perpetrators want to influence
directly; 3) the instruments for committing one terrorist act are highly varied
(most commonly firearms and explosives are used); 4) it does not matter how
great is the damage because it isn’t the very purpose of the terrorist. For the
terrorist is important to cause a psychological effect - fear, dread, anxiety,
insecurity, etc., which in turn to force the society adopt a desired behavior or to
make public perform an action that is the actual terrorist’s aim.
We will agree with George Fotev that warfare is interdisciplinary and
multidisciplinary knowledge. It is that because “The army and the war are
studied by different sciences” [4] and “They present these actions as
multidimensional and define them as a complex reality" [5]. One deduction
based on the broadest understanding of warfare is the necessity of providing
more operationalized conception of it. In brief manner it is represented by
Karlfon Clausewitz – “Martial art is the art of conducting the war, while you
succeed to use to the best advantage the resources in the fight, which you have
just before” [6]
Clausewitz himself specifies the meaning put into this concept, comparing:
military science contains knowledge – martial art requires creativity [7]. But this
correlation allows us to validate it exactly as a deed, but not art.
Conducting a war through the usage of available resources requires
knowledge and intellectual capabilities in order to manage the war properly as
well as to create and make use of these resources.
Actually, Clausewitz believed that this given definition is a statement in a
broad sense. Because warfare covers ”... all activities aiming war, and in
particular all related to the creation of armed force, i.e. those providing sets,
weapons, armor and training” [8]. Prussian military theorist tells us that even we
were looking for operationalization of the concept of warfare, it implicitly
contains interdisciplinary knowledge. And yet, according to Clausewitz walfare
in the strict sense is represented by “...being at war (which-BA.) that includes
handling of fight and its conduct” [9].
This provokes deriving of the basic structural activities of warfare - tactics
and strategy. “The first one learns how to use forces in the fighting, and the
second one - how to use the fighting for the purpose of the war” [10].
The sophistication of warfare (fighting in a war) caused by industrial
production after The First World War is the reason about the appearance of its
third structural component - operational art. It occupies an intermediate position
towards tactics and strategy. In the spirit of Clausewitz it can be defined as an
activity that teaches how forces are used to connect the fightings. In fact, these
Association Scientific and Applied Research
171
three main activities construct the object of warfare as a science [11]. Because
the military science as a social activity presupposes knowledges as well as
capabilities in the field of creativity. These knowledges and creativity aimed at
forming an ability, summarized in the classic expression of Harold Lasswell –
“management of violence”. For the realization of the “management of violence”
is needed organization.
The primary public product of warfare is the army. It is the institution for
exercising violence. Hence the role of the military as “an expert in intriducing
force under certain conditions” has appeared [12]. Admittedly, these are the
terms of war. But the war suggests a variety of situations and relevant ways and
approaches of warfare that need to be reflected in a systematic way and then
classified by tactics, operational art and strategy. Because actually “the
differences between the military commanders in antiquity and (nowadays’ –
Bulgarian author) ... those who control the most powerful up-to-date weapons ...
are in some sort rather due to current technology and resources than the
methodology of their work “[13].
However, it should be noticed that namely the technology mediated
methods, which are the management contrivances for combat activity conduct.
[14]. This means that the subject area of warfare is inseparable from its technical
system. It’s about consistency between the cognitive (subject) and technical
rationality in the military, which in turn requires quite possible organizational
rationality [15].
The starting point here is the enemy. In this case - terrorism. What is
terrorism? Researchers of this social phenomenon have not reached the
formulation of one general plausible definition yet. It seems that there is a
consensus on its definition related to a trinity of objectives, means and objects.
Systematization imposes: “The objective pursued by the terrorists is always
political.
Means used by terrorists (violence or threat with violence) depend on the
specific objectives of each terrorist act.
Objects of terrorist acts are people, vehicles and/or buildings where there
are huge damages and a numerous toll of human life.” [16].
One important basic characteristic of terrorism is the display of “the
syndrome of the consequences of violence”. This means that the objects of
terrorist acts are not only the physical casualties and the material destruction but
the society itself in which regular activity fear will dominate. From that point of
view we can conclude that terrorism is a kind of “synthesis between war and
theater, a dramatization of the most rejected violence i.e. the violence that is
perpetrated on innocent people, demostrated in front of public, aiming to create
a mood of fear for political reasons” [17].
What is a terrorist organization? One structure–functioned approach of
consideration claims that terrorist organizations are with centralized or
decentralized structures.
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
Many researchers highlight the contemporary terrorists’ organizations
which are constructed on a cellular basis. Their structure includes: staff; illegal
military groups; units for reconnaissance and information; psychological unit;
logistics units. Тhe presence of sympathizers should be noticed. The
composition of each unit (cell) is from 5/6 to 9/10 people.
What is the tactics of terrorists? The researchers highlight three stages in
one terrorist act: preparatory, organizational and technical stage as well as four
types of tactical actions with a view to the method for achieving the defined
aims: blasting (the threat to blow up) or using other dangerous objects; an
ambush; an attack and temporary control of vehicles, buildings and places (parts
of settlements) and the firing at an object from distance [18].
These general characteristics of the enemy i.e. the terrorist organization are
the reason to deduce the affirmation that according to military this organization
and battle modes of action don’t come as a suprise. If there is some element of
surprise at the current stage, it lies in the ingenious and original use of the
artifacts of modern post-industrial information society. (It has already mentioned
above that the differences between past times and nowadays are rather related to
technologies and resources than the methodology of action!) Why? Obviously if
there is a closer scrutiny at the classification of the tactical actions of terrorists,
presented by researchers once as stages of one terrorist act and twice as a type of
tactical maneuvers, you will notice that similar methodology is used by any
resistance (partisan) movement against the current government organized power.
The similarities are obvious: each national resistance and/or guerrilla war
has political objectives; the basic tactical approach is built on the „hit and run”
principle expressed through the famous formula of Mao Tse-Tung: „The enemy
attacks, we retreat. The enemy camps, we harrass it. The enemy shoots, we
attack. The enemy retreats, we pursue it.” [19]; publicity of the shares;
maximum price of the consequences of power etc.
At the same time the conduct of the resistance (guerrilla) wars “in most
cases includes much of the phenomenon known as ... terrorism ...” [20] with or
without terrorist techniques, one resistance (guerrilla) movement as well as one
terrorist organization endeavors to apply the doctrine “La politique du pire”,
which is nothing else but a policy of gradual deterioration of things, aimed to
provoke widespread resentment and / or political crisis and at strategic level it
aims to provoke a total collapse of the current “status quo”. Of course, we can’t
miss the basic substantial difference between the actions of the terrorist
organization and the classic national resistance and / or guerrilla movement
expressed by Fromkin: “Unlike the soldier, the partisan or the revolutionary, the
terrorist ... is always in the paradoxical position to take actions, which have the
immediate physical consequences that are not particularly desired by him. An
ordinary killer will kill someone because he wants that person to be dead while a
terrorist will shoot someone, although he feels quite indifferent whether this
person will live or die” [21].
Association Scientific and Applied Research
173
This comparison between the resistance (guerrilla) and terrorist
organizations is important. Because the used tactics is generally known. It’s
well-known in the military science in theory and in practice. It’s not only the
organizational rationality we have in mind i.e. the confrontation between
military and resistance (guerrilla) formations. But first of all it’s cognitive
(subject) and technical rationality. What does it mean? At the stage of tactics
since its nascent warfare has been developing and improving ways and means of
action in symmetric and asymmetric order. Here we will focus on the
asymmetry. In broad terms it means a lack of general basis to make comparison
with regard to quantity, quality or actual (operational) capabilities. Obviously
both resistance (guerrilla) and terrorist threats are asymmetric threats for the
state and state’s entities that are authorized to use violence. But since there is
military science the capabilities of military units for actions under specific
conditions and environments have been acquired requiring specialized purely
military asymmetric and tactical actions and methods. These are enshrined in
military statutes. We even recognize them in the whole types of standard combat
support techniques such as reconnaissance with inbred to it ambushes and
reconnaissance battle such as "hit, watch and run", engineering support and
disguise. What about the tactical actions such as offensive and defense in town
(village), in mountain-forested land, actions for dismantle nuclear land mine,
deployment of troops outside the barracks, providing the security and defense
for objectives by patrolling, etc., etc. etc. It’s not necessary to mention the
construction, preparation and armor of the special branch of armed forces for
example landing. Under the conditions of today army forces are used in many
operations distinguished from war: peace-imposing, peacekeeping, operations in
humanitarian crises. They act as it is prescribed in the statutes that study the
achievements of the military science. At the same time the inventive and original
use of contemporary post-industrial information society’s artifacts by terrorists
is not ahead of the warfare development. Unfortunately it is an attempt for more
adequate inserting the terrorist organizations in modern world. The development
of warfare at this stage gives enough answers about possible threats because “...
in the postmodern technical military systems there are intangible components
which define a new paradigm that besides all explains radical disparities and
incommensurability with earlier ...” [22] ones. It’s worth noting the concepts of
"The Future Of The Soldier", “Abilities to surf in a network” - [NEC], “Network
centric warfare”, the system [C4 ISTAR].
III. Conclusion:
In conclusion it must be said that „terrorists are civilians, not an army,
therefore the most appropriate means for dealing with them are police forces,
intelligence gathering and security measures, not tank brigades” [23]. Moreover,
the police fully benefits from the achievements of the military.
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Association Scientific and Applied Research
IV. Literature:
[1]. George Fotev. Disciplinary structure of sociology, publishing house „EastWest”, Sofia, 2006, page 95.
[2]. Pashov Lubomir, “Research of mathematical model for operations to
determine risks for protections of critical infrastructure” a refereed Journal
Scientific and Applied Research (Licensed in EBSCO, USA), ISSN 13146289, Vol.3, 2013, p. 98
[3]. Peter Boyanov "A taxonomy of the cyber attacks", A referred Journal
Scientific and Applied Research (Licensed in EBSCO, USA), ISSN 13146289, Vol.3, 2013, p. 114
[4]. George Fotev, Disciplinary structure of sociology, publishing house „EastWest”, Sofia, 2006, page 93.
[5]. George Fotev. Disciplinary structure of sociology, publishing house „EastWest”, Sofia, 2006, page 96.
[6]. Clausewitz Karlfon. Theory of the Great War, publishing house “SOFI –
P”, Sofia, 2001, page 136.
[7]. Clausewitz Karlfon. Theory of the Great War, publishing house “SOFI –
P”, Sofia, 2001, pages 177-178.
[8]. Clausewitz Karlfon. Theory of the Great War, publishing house “SOFI –
P”, Sofia, 2001,page 136.
[9]. Clausewitz Karlfon. Theory of the Great War, publishing house “SOFI –
P”, Sofia, 2001,page 137.
[10]. Clausewitz Karlfon. Theory of the Great War, publishing house “SOFI –
P”, Sofia, 2001,page 137.
[11]. Doykov Jordan. Political decision. Mechanism for decision-making in
national security, publishing house “KOTA”, Sofia, 2007, pages 124-125.
[12]. Samuel Huntington. The soldier and the State, military publisher “St.
George The Victor”, Sofia, 1998, page 25.
[13]. Gwynne Dyer. War. The publishing house “Horizon”, Sofia, 2005, pages
13-14.
[14]. Gwynne Dyer. War. The publishing house “Horizon”, Sofia, 2005,page 11.
[15]. George Fotev. Disciplinary structure of sociology, publishing house „EastWest”, Sofia, 2006, pages 37 and 109.
[16]. Georgi Stoyanov. Terrorism. History and genesis, “Military Press” Ltd,
Sofia, 2003, pages 16 and 17.
[17]. Hristo Popov. Terrorism. Psychosocial roots, consequences and
interventions, “Military Press” Ltd, Sofia, 2005, page 22.
[18]. Georgi Stoyanov. Disciplinary structure of sociology, publishing house
„East-West”, Sofia, 2006, pages 45-49.
[19]. Mao Tse-tung. “Problems of Strategy in China’s Revolutionary War ”,
vol.1, 1965.
[20]. Gwynne Dyer. War. The publishing house “Horizon”, Sofia, 2005, page
422.
Association Scientific and Applied Research
175
[21]. Fromkin D. The Strategy of Terror, Foreign Affairs, 53, July 1975, page
689.
[22]. George Fotev. Disciplinary structure of sociology, publishing house „EastWest”, Sofia, 2006, page 110.
[23]. Gwynne Dyer. War. The publishing house “Horizon”, Sofia, 2005, page
444.
176
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JOURNAL SCIENCE EDUCATION INNOVATION , VOL. 2. 2014
Association Scientific and Applied Research
International Journal
Original Contribution
ISSN 1314-9784
ИЗИСКВАНИЯ КЪМ АВТОРИТЕ
В списание “Наука, образование, иновации” се публикуват на английски език кратки научни
съобщения, отразяващи нови, непубликувани резултати от проучвания в областта на математическите,
физическите, химическите, биологическите и медицинските науки, науките за Земята, инженерните,
педагогическите и аграрните науки. Текстовете на статиите трябва да са подготвени за печат. Не се
предвижда допълнително редактиране. Статиите се изпращат на адрес:
[email protected]
Полетата на всяка страница трябва да са: ляво 25 mm, дясно 25 mm, горно 25 mm, долно 25mm. На
листа не се чертае рамка. На първа страница над заглавието да се оставят 60 mm (т.е. горно 25 + 35mm),
на формат А4. Максималният обем на статиите е 8 страници. Студия се оформя както статия, в обем от
21 до 30 страници.
УКАЗАНИЯ ЗА ОФОРМЯНЕ НА ТЕКСТА
ЗАГЛАВИЕ – Font: Times New Roman; Size: 14; Fontstyle: Bold; Effects: AllCaps;
ParagraphAlignment: Centered.
ИМЕНА НА АВТОРИТЕ се печатат през 1 празен ред под заглавието в разгърнат вид - пълно
собственои пълно фамилно име; Font: Times New Roman, Size: 14, Fontstyle: Bold, ParagraphAlignment:
Left, по средата на реда – Centered.
АНОТАЦИЯТА И КЛЮЧОВИТЕ ДУМИ НА АНГЛИЙСКИ ЕЗИК се оформят така:
Анотацията (Abstract:) в обем до 10 реда - Font: Times New Roman, Size: 12, Fontstyle: Italic,
ParagraphAlignment: Justified; през 1 празен ред следват ключовите думи (дескриптори - Keywords) – Font:
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„фиг.”. Те трябва да бъдат ясни и констрастни и да се придружават от текст. Приложените фигури и
снимки да не са цветни.
Литературата в текста се означават с цифра, заградена в квадратни скоби [1] Номерацията на
формулите се означават вляво от тях в малки кръгли скоби ( ). Литературата, посочена в края на доклада,
се изписва съгласно стандарта за библиографско описание, на английски език а цитиранията в текста се
означават с цифра, заградена в квадратни скоби [1].
Литературната справка трябва да съдържа не повече от 20 публикувани работи, цитирани в
статията, подредени в хронологичен ред според цитирането им в текста. Името на първия автор се дава в
инверсия. Следват съкратеното заглавие на списанието, том, година, книжка, страници (от - до), а при
книги и монографии - заглавие, град, издателство, години, страници.
АДРЕСИ ЗА КОРЕСПОНДЕНЦИЯ се изписват през един празен ред (без абревиатури), Font:
Times New Roman, Size: 12; Fontstyle: Italic; Effects: AllCaps, ParagraphAlignment: Justified, по средата на
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Всяка статия се рецензира от двама независими анонимни рецензенти. След одобрение от
рецензентите статията се приема за печат.
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JOURNAL SCIENCE EDUCATION INNOVATION , VOL. 2. 2014
Association Scientific and Applied Research
International Journal
Original Contribution
ISSN 1314-9784
REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AUTHORS
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pedagogical and agrarian sciences in English. The text papers should be styled for printing. No additional
redaction is planned. The papers should be sent to the following address: [email protected]
The Fields on each page should be: left - 25 mm, right - 25 mm, top - 25 mm, bottom - 25 mm. No frame
on sheet. On the first page under the title should be left 60 mm (top 25 + 35 mm), All papers shall be printed on a
laser printer on standard sheets of paper format А4. The paper volume shall not exceed 8 pages. Each study
should be styled as a paper in a volume of 21 to 30 pages.
Text shall be styled in the following way
TITLE - Font: Times New Roman; Size: 14; Fontstyle: Bold; Effects: AllCaps; Paragraph Alignment:
Centered.
AUTHOR NAMES - shall be printed over empty line under the title in its complete form – complete
name, initial for the surname and complete family name; Font: Times New Roman, Size: 14, Fontstyle: Bold,
Paragraph Alignment: Left, по средата на реда – Centered.
ANNOTATION AND KEYWORDS IN ENGLISH are styled as follows: annotation (ABSTRACT)
in volume up to 10 lines - Font: Times New Roman, Size: 12, Fontstyle: Italic, Paragraph Alignment: Justified;
the keywords are next over empty line (descriptors - KEY WORDS) – Font: Times New Roman, Size: 12,
Fontstyle: Italic; Paragraph Alignment: Justified, both elements outstand 1 cm left of the frame limiting the main
text.
MAIN TEXT - Font: Times New Roman, Size: 14; Paragraph Firstline: cm, Linespacing: Single,
Alignment: Justified. Drawings shall be precise and evenly placed on pages. The International System of Units
(SI) should be used. All graphs, illustrations and photographs are referred to as Figures, abbreviated to “Fig.”.
They should be clear and contrasting and should be accompanied be text. The applied figures and pictures
shouldn't be color.
The literature in the text should be denoted by a number in square brackets [1]. Numbers of formulas
are printed on their left in brackets ( ).
Literature, stated at the end of the paper shall be printed according to the bibliographic description
standard, and citations within the text are marked with a number in square brackets [1].
The references should contain up to 20 cited works arranged according to their order of appearance in
the text. The family name precedes the initials of the first name in case of the first author. The references should
include the names of the authors, followed by the standard abbreviation of the journal, the volume number, the
year of publication, number of the journal and the pages cited. For books - the titles, the city of publication and
the publisher followed by the year of publication and pages.
MAILING ADDRESSES printed over one more empty line (no abbreviations), Font: Times New
Roman, Size: 12; Fontstyle: Italic; Effects: AllCaps, Paragraph Alignment: Justified, in the middle of the line –
Centered.
Military and scientific degrees shall not be pointed.
All manuscripts submitted for publication must first be reviewed by two independent anonymous
reviewers. After the approval of the manuscript by the reviewers the paper is submitted for publication.
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Association Scientific and Applied Research