Title Text
From robustness to resilience
Gaussian
Probability of outcome
N(M=m(earthquakes/year)
Pareto
✘
Low Probability High
impact events
Range of possible outcomes
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
10⁵
10⁴
10³
10²
10¹
10⁰
10-¹
10-²
early detection, fast recovery & speedy exploitation
0
1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Magnitude m=log₁₀(S)
Derived from material created by Max Boisot
Academy of Management Montreal 2010
18 Apr 2015
Log of event frequency
Different approaches to understanding
Hypothesis/
inductive
Non-hypothesis/
abductive
Gaussian
world
Pareto
world
Probable
Possible
Plausible
Log of event size
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
18 Apr 2015
Cynefin a sense-making framework
There are three basic types of system:
ordered, complex and chaotic.
Complex systems have propensities
and dispositions but no linear material
cause & effect
Process management and outcome
based targets only work in the ordered
domain, they produce perverse
outcomes in the complex domain
In Cynefin order is divided into
‘obvious’ & complicated and the fifth
domain) disorder
In a complex world we focus on
direction & multiple parallel safe-to-fail
experiments; not one fail-safe design
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
Complex
Complicated
Enabling constraints
Governing constraints
Emergent Practice
Good Practice
probe-sense-respond
Chaotic
Absence of constraints
act-sense-respond
Novel Practice
sense-analyse-respond
Obvious
Rigid constraints
sense-categorise-respond
Best Practice
18 Apr 2015
Cynefin Dynamics & cadence
The natural cadence is between
complex and complicated,
exploration and exploitation; testing
constraints for repeatability
A full reset may be needed if that
cadence is not maintained
Only high stable ‘things’ go into the
obvious, and only if change is over an
extended period of time
Increasing we see a ‘grazing’
dynamic where the pace of change
means we need to maintain constant
experiment approaches - major
implications for architecture and
modularisation
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
Complex
Complicated
Enabling constraints
Governing constraints
Emergent Practice
Good Practice
probe-sense-respond
Chaotic
Absence of constraints
act-sense-respond
Novel Practice
sense-analyse-respond
Obvious
Rigid constraints
sense-categorise-respond
Best Practice
18 Apr 2015
What about expert searchers who have
spent years honing their ability to detect
small abnormalities in specific types of
image? We asked 24 radiologists to
perform a familiar lung nodule detection
task. A gorilla, 48 times larger than the
average nodule, was inserted in the last
case. 83% of radiologists did not see the
gorilla. Eye-tracking showed that the
majority of the those who missed the
gorilla looked directly at the location of the
gorilla. Even expert searchers, operating in
“The invisible gorilla strikes again” their domain of expertise, are vulnerable to
Drew, Vo & Wolfe Psychol Sci. Sep 2013; 24(9): 1848–1853
inattentional blindness
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
18 Apr 2015
Cognition
Partial data scans &
pattern matching
The use of ritual in
cognitive activation
Learning from failure
not success
“Knowledge”
Abductive thinking
Visualisation is key
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
01.04.1954
80
60
40
0
20
Well defined processes and procedures
60
40
20
0
An intense drive to achieve
80
100
100
Navigating landscapes
0
20
Situation relevant to…
40
60
80
Pressure coming from…
100
0
Doing it Right
Future
Past
Present
Self-imposed
Management
Peers
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
20
Sense of urgency is…
Lacking and
needed
40
60
80
100
Fairness is about
Doing it Right
Over the top
stressful
Allocating
responsibility
All about
sharing failure
Creating new
process
18 Apr 2015
20
40
60
100
40
Pressure from management
20
0
80
20
40
60
80
100
0.0
0.2
Doing it Right
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0
0.2
Over the top stressful
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.8
1.0
1.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
40
60
80
100
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
100
Over the top stressful
0.8
80
Deadlines too far
0.4
Well defined processes and procedures
80
60
0
20
40
Doing it Right
60
80
100
0
0
0
0.2
20
40
An intense drive to achieve
60
80
20
Self Imposed
100
100
80
60
40
40
Pressure from self
20
0
0
Freedom too far
20
Well defined processes and procedures
60
20
0.0
0.6
0.8
60
0.6
40
0.4
Over the top stressful
20
0.2
0
0.0
0
0.0
40
An intense drive to achieve
0.6
0.2
0.4
Deadlines too far
60
40
20
Pressure from self
0.8
80
80
1.0
0.4
Over the top stressful
100
Self Imposed
100
0
60
80
100
60
40
Pressure from management
0
0
20
20
20
40
An intense drive to achieve
60
40
An intense drive to achieve
60
80
80
80
100
Understanding nuanced differences
0
20
40
Doing it Right
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
60
80
0
20
40
Doing it Right
60
80
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Freedom too far
18 Apr 2015
Seeing the big picture while spotting
outlier events early enough to take action
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
18 Apr 2015
Implications
Lessons learning
Conceptual blending in
practice
Exercises in failure
Lead not lag
indications
Fractal frameworks
For ordinary purpose,
activated for
extraordinary need
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
01.04.1954