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Price Forecast of Black Pepper for May, June and July 2015
Pepper prices to increase
Black pepper, the ‘King of spices’ is a perennial crop grown for its berries, which is
usually dried and used as spice. Vietnam is the largest producer and exporter of black pepper.
India is one of the major producer and the largest consumer among the black pepper producing
countries in the world. As per the International Pepper Community, the global output of pepper
in 2015 is estimated as 3,74,500 tonnes. The production in India during 2015 is forecasted to be
around 70,000 tonnes which is almost double the production in 2014. Though the domestic
consumption in India is projected to be around 48,000 tonnes with an annual growth of 7 to 8 per
cent, the global consumption is expected to grow only at 4 per cent annually due to the lower
growth in consumption of 2 to 3 per cent in developed countries.
Harvesting of pepper in India extends from early December to late March. Kerala and
Karnataka account for more than 80 per cent of the production of black pepper in India. The
output in Kerala in 2015 is expected to be higher than the previous year. According to Spices
Board, the production in Karnataka is expected be 30-35 per cent more than the normal
production. The major share of arrivals in markets in the recent months was from Karnataka
rather than Kerala.
Lower production and higher prices in 2014 have almost exhausted the previous stocks
and hence the traders were expecting an upward movement in pepper prices from May 2015.
But the unfavourable weather in major growing regions of the state and the uncertainty
regarding the open market release of more than 6000 tonnes of tainted pepper from warehouses
after cleaning and testing have raised concerns over the availability of the product.
India, which is among the largest consumers of black pepper, exported 14,500 tonnes
during the period from April to December 2014 and had been importing mainly from Vietnam,
Srilanka and Indonesia. The pepper import to India has been estimated to be in the range of
18000 to 20000 tonnes in 2014-15. Import of pepper from Vietnam to India in 2014-15
increased by more than 50 per cent over the previous year and it was mainly to meet the needs
of the manufacturers of high end value added products. Though India was the major source of
ground pepper for US in 2014, the country imported less of pepper from India in 2014 as
Price Forecast of Black Pepper for May, June and July 2015
compared to the previous years. The better crop prospect for pepper in India is expected to make
it more competitive in the export market.
Price of black pepper was expected to decline especially in the first quarter of 2015
because of increase in production in all the producing countries with the exception of Vietnam
where the production is estimated to be slightly lower as compared to the previous year. The
price disparity among producing countries has also narrowed down in 2015 and the drop in
prices in the first quarter of 2015 in India could be attributed to the harvesting season and postharvest arrivals. Even though production has increased in India, a major share of the increased
production will be absorbed because of strong internal demand, especially for industrial uses.
Due to limited stocks in India and most of the other producing countries, pepper harvested in the
year will be easily absorbed by the market and the price is expected to remain firm in the later
months of the year. Considering the overall production and market information, with increasing
domestic consumption as well as exports, there is an expectation of revival of prices from May
2015 unless significant changes occur in demand-supply situation.
With the above market sentiments, the econometric analysis of monthly prices in Kochi
market for ungarbled pepper (for a period of 20 years from 1995) and traders’ survey conducted
as part of the “ICAR - Network Project on Market Intelligence” found that the bullish phase in
black pepper will continue during the months of May, June and July 2015. As this forecast will
prevail only with the above market sentiments and could vary with changes in the market
situation, the farmers are advised to take suitable selling decisions.
The ranges of forecasted prices are as follows:
Months
Forecasted Price (₹ per Kilogram)
May 2015
550-590
June 2015
570-610
July 2015
590-640
Research Team
Dr.Jesy Thomas K., Dr.Anil Kuruvila, Dr.Chitra Parayil, Mr.Vinil Ravi and Ms Rohini K
ICAR -Network Project on Market Intelligence
College of Horticulture, Vellanikkara,
Kerala Agricultural University, Thrissur
Price Forecast of Coconut for May, June and July 2015
Stability in prices expected for` coconut
India is the largest producer of coconut after Indonesia and Philippines and it accounts
for 18 percent of the global coconut production. Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra
Pradesh together account for more than 90 per cent of the total production of coconut in
India. The coconut production in India has decreased by 10 per cent in 2014-15 over the
previous year. Kerala is accounting for about 37 per cent of the area and 28 per cent of the
production in the country. The production of coconut in Kerala was 5,921 million nuts in
2013-14 and the estimate for 2014-15 is 4,886 million nuts, exhibiting a decline of 17.48 per
cent. While Idukki, Kottayam and Kollam districts exhibited substantial decline in
production, significant growth in production was observed in Alappuzha district. Even
though Kerala has the largest area under coconut cultivation in the country, the productivity
is only 6042 nuts per hectare because of predominance of old and senile trees in homesteads,
high incidence of diseases, mite attack and deficient rainfall.
The peak harvesting period of coconut in Kerala is from January to June accounting for
about 60 per cent of the total production. About 45 percent of the production is used as mature
nuts, 37 percent for milling copra, eight percent for ball copra and 10 percent is consumed in
tender form. With the commencement of the peak season in 2015 there has been good
demand for raw nuts both from upcountry and overseas markets but there was no sizeable
increase in market arrivals. The lower production of raw nuts due to drought and reduced
availability of coconut for ball copra production in Karnataka have caused the coconut prices
to rise sharply. Several companies in Karnataka were also purchasing dehusked coconut from
Kasaragod at ₹ 32 per kg for converting it into copra. The price of copra is dependent on the
demand for and prices of coconut oil. Traders have opined that the market price of coconut
was rising due to short supply of copra resulting from higher demand for coconut by-products
such as coconut powder, virgin coconut oil, desiccated coconut etc. The increase in demand
for tender coconut in summer months and the rising prices of tender coconut due to low
arrivals have in turn reduced the supply of coconut for copra making. The average market
arrivals of copra in Kerala decreased by 33 per cent in 2014-15 and the pressure on copra
prices is unlikely to ease much in Kerala mainly because of lower production in Kerala. It is
also expected that the restrictions on the entry of adulterated coconut oil into Kerala could
drive the coconut prices up in the upcoming months.
Price Forecast of Coconut for May, June and July 2015
The survey of coconut and copra traders highlighted that the price of coconut is ruling
around ₹ 30 to 32 per kg in Kerala. Minimum Support Prices of ₹ 5550 per Quintal and
₹ 5850 per Quintal were announced for milling and ball copra for the year 2014-15 by the
Government of India. The procurement price of coconut in Kerala has been increased from
₹ 25 per kg to ₹ 28 per kg. Global trends have limited impact on domestic market as the
entire production is absorbed domestically and the share in global trade is negligible. With
the increasing demand for raw as well as tender coconut, copra and other coconut products,
the price of coconut is likely to remain stable in the second quarter of 2015.
The “ICAR-Network Project on Market Intelligence” views that the price of coconut
will remain stable with a chance for slight revival during the second quarter of 2015. This
prediction is based on the econometric analysis of monthly price data at Alappuzha market
for partially dehusked coconut (for a period of 11 years from 2004) and traders’ survey. As
this forecast will prevail only with the above market sentiments, the farmers are advised to
take suitable selling decisions.
The ranges of prices predicted are as follows:
Months
Forecasted Price (₹ per 1000 nuts)
May 2015
11150-11250
June 2015
11110-11210
July 2015
11070-11170
Research Team
Dr.Jesy Thomas K., Dr.Anil Kuruvila, Dr.Chitra Parayil, Mr.Vinil Ravi and Ms Rohini K
ICAR -Network Project on Market Intelligence
College of Horticulture, Vellanikkara,
Kerala Agricultural University, Thrissur
Price Forecast of Tapioca for May, June and July 2015
Tapioca prices to remain stable
Tapioca is the major source of calories in tropical countries after rice and maize. The
world tapioca production in 2014 was estimated as 291 million tonnes, with a 4.6 percent
increase from 2013. Nigeria is the major country growing tapioca in the world accounting for
about 18 per cent of the area and 20 per cent production. The largest exporter of dried tapioca is
Thailand while China is the major importer. India occupies the 10
th
position in global tapioca
production and is third largest producer in Asia. Tapioca was cultivated in an area of 2.28 lakh
hectares in India, with a total production of 8.1 million tonnes in 2013-14. Tamil Nadu, Kerala
and Andhra Pradesh account for 93 per cent of the area and 98 per cent of the production of
tapioca in the country. Tamil Nadu stands first both in area and production followed by Kerala
and these two states accounted for about 61 per cent and 31 per cent of the production in India in
2013-14. The area under tapioca in Kerala in 2013-14 was 67,589 hectares and the production
was 24.8 lakh tonnes. Kollam and Thiruvananthapuram districts account for 24 per cent and 21
per cent of the area under the crop in the state. The forecasted area of tapioca in Kerala for 201415 is 71,074 hectares with a production of 25.8 lakh tonnes. India export several forms of tapioca
including raw tapioca tuber, starch, sago and sago pith. In 2013-14, India exported tapioca worth
₹ 133.2 million while the value of export was ₹ 102.9 million during April to December, 2014.
Tapioca is extensively grown as a food crop in Kerala, whereas it is cultivated mainly for
starch and sago industries in Tamil Nadu. Though tapioca is available in Tamil Nadu from July
to April, the peak availability is during winter months from November to February when the
starch content in tubers is at its peak. The very high prices that were prevalent for tapioca in
Kerala during 2014, led to an increase in acreage under the crop and the consequent addition to
production in the current year is estimated to be more than one lakh tonnes. The higher
production and unseasonal rains have forced farmers to distress sale of tapioca. Tapioca prices
have dropped this season and at the retail level, the prices have fallen from ₹ 20-25 per Kilogram
in 2014 to ₹ 10-15 per Kilogram in the first quarter of 2015. While the average price in Chalai
market in Thiruvananthapuram decreased from ₹ 15 in January 2015 to ₹ 12 in April 2015, it
remained stable at ₹ 20 per kg during these months in the Kozhikode market. The average price
declined from ₹12 in January 2015 in the Ernakulam market to ₹ 8 in April 2015. The stable
Price Forecast of Tapioca for May, June and July 2015
prices in Kozhikode market could be attributed to the lower production in the northern districts
and reduced arrivals from outside.
The “ICAR Network Project on Market Intelligence” views that the prices are likely to
remain at the present levels in the coming months. The prediction is based on econometric
analysis of monthly price data from 2009 for three major markets of tapioca in Kerala and
traders’ survey. As this forecast will prevail only with the above market sentiments and could
vary with changes in the market situation, the farmers are advised to take suitable selling
decisions.
The ranges of predicted prices are as follows:
Forecasted Price ( ₹ per Kg)
Months
May 2015
June 2015
July 2015
Calicut
Ernakulam
19 – 21
19 – 21
19 – 21
9 – 11
9 – 11
9 – 11
Chalai,
Thiruvananthapuram
11 – 13
11 – 13
11 – 13
Research Team
Dr.Jesy Thomas K., Dr.Anil Kuruvila, Dr.Chitra Parayil Mr Vinil Ravi and Ms. Rohini K
ICAR -Network Project on Market Intelligence
College of Horticulture, Vellanikkara,
Kerala Agricultural University, Thrissur