Design the future First quarter results 2015 Detlef Borghardt, CEO Wilfried Trepels, CFO May 13, 2015 Executive Summary/ Highlights 2 1 Double-digit sales increase • Sales increase of 15.2% to € 271.0 (235.3) mn driven by positive performance and organic growth in all business units. • Approx. two thirds of sales increase related to positive translational FX effects. 2 Disproportionate growth in adjusted EBIT Adj. EBIT up 32.2% to € 22.6 (17.1) mn on sales growth, improved gross profit and reduced SG&A ratio due to cost discipline; Adj. EBIT margin up 100 BPs at 8.3 % (7.3 %). 3 Significant swing in net finance result from - € 3,3 mn (Q1 2014) to € 6.6 mn in Q1 2015 driven by € 8,8 (0.1) mn from unrealized FX gains related to intercompany loans. 4 Strong growth in EPS undiluted Net profit for the period more than doubled reaching € 18.1 (8.3) mn; Basic EPS of € 0.40 in Q1 2015 as compared to € 0.18 in the previous year. 5 Outlook 2015 confirmed • Sales to reach in between € 980 mn and € 1.035 bn. • Full year adj. EBIT margin expected to come in at the lower end of a 9 to 10% target range. • Assumption: no significant deterioration of the political, overall economic or industry-specific environment. Business performance – group sales and group adjusted EBIT Sales in €mn Adjusted EBIT in €mn 280 30 16% 271.0 270 22.6 12% 260 20 17.1 250 +35.7mn 8% 8.3% 240 7.3% 235.3 +5.5mn 10 230 4% 220 0 210 Q1/2014 Q1/2015 24 300 250 0% Q1/2014 Q1/2015 22.6 271.0 235.3 246.7 241.5 19.4 20 236.2 19.1 17.1 200 16 150 12 8 50 4 0 0 12% 15.1 7.3% 100 16% 7.9% 8.3% 7.9% 8% 6.4% 4% Q1 Q2 Q3 2014 3 Q4 Q1 2015 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 2014 Q4 Q1 2015 Business performance – sales by region and business unit Sales in €mn by region Europe Sales in €mn by business unit North America Other Trailer Systems +47.2% 250 28.7 (10.6%) 250 19.5 (8.3%) 57.9 (24.6%) 200 200 83.0 (35.3%) 150 +33.7% 111.0 (41.0%) 271.0 100 36.5 (15.5%) 150 235.3 235.3 +14.2% 66.1 (24.4%) +24.1% 45.3 (16.7%) +13.3% 271.0 100 132.8 (56.4%) -1.1% 131.3 (48.4%) 0 50 140.9 (59.9%) 159.6 (58.9%) 0 Q1/2014 4 Aftermarket 300 300 50 Powered Vehicle Systems Q1/2015 Q1/2014 Q1/2015 Business performance – Trailer Systems Sales in €mn Summary • Sales increase of 13.3 % equaling € 18.7 mn to € 159.6 mn in Q1/2015 (Q1/2014: 140.9). • Solid sales development in Europe despite prior year’s high comparison basis from Q1/2014 related to spill-over effects due to the coming into force of EURO-6 standard for trucks. • Strong sales development and market share gains in North America. 180 159.6 160 140 140.9 139.9 133.3 130.3 Q3 Q4 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Q1 Q2 2014 Q1 2015 Adjusted EBIT in €mn and margin in % 10 9.3 9% 9 8% 8 7% 7 6 6% 6.2 5.6 5.4 5.8% 5% 5 4 4.4% 4.2% 3.9% 4% 3.3 3% 3 2.5% 2 2% 1% 1 0 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 2014 5 Q4 Q1 2015 • Strong increase in adj. EBIT to €9.3 (5.4) mn • Adj. EBIT margin lifted to 5.8% as compared to 3.9% in Q1/2014. • Improvement in profitability driven by higher volume, the effects of the restructuring measures undertaken in this BU and keeping up strict cost discipline. Business performance – Powered Vehicle Systems Sales in €mn 50 45 40 44.0 42.4 46.6 45.3 Q4 Q1 Summary • Sales increase of 24.1% to € 45.3 (36.5) mn in Q1/2015. • Supportive market environment and favorable capacity utilization levels in Europe. • North America: Solid demand for class 8 trucks in yet unchanged weak development of government business. 36.5 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 2014 2015 Adjusted EBIT in €mn and margin in % 4 26% 3.7 3.2 3 3.0 2.8 21% 16% 2.1 2 11% 7.5% 1 6.4% 5.7% 7.9% 6.6% 6% 1% 0 -4% Q1 Q2 Q3 2014 6 Q4 Q1 2015 • Adj. EBIT coming in 42.9% higher at € 3.0 (2.1) mn in Q1 2015. • Adj. EBIT margin 90 BPs higher reaching 6.6 % (5.7 %) in Q1/2015. • Improved profitability as compared to previous year’s quarter, but still burdened by unfavorable customer and product mix. Business performance – Aftermarket Sales in €mn 70 60 64.4 Summary • Sales increase of 14.2 % to € 66.1 (57.9) mn in Q1/2015 • Effects from weak Russian market largely compensated by sales expansion in additional regions. • Opening of significantly expanded Parts Distribution Center in Dubai in Feb. 2015. 66.1 64.2 59.3 57.9 50 40 30 20 10 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2014 2015 Adjusted EBIT in €mn and margin in % 12 10 35% 9.6 10.7 10.0 10.3 25% 8.1 8 30% 20% 6 16.6% 16.6% 15.5% 15.6% 13.7% 4 10% 2 5% 0 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 2014 7 15% Q4 Q1 2015 • Adj. EBIT of € 10.3 (9.6) mn in Q1/2015, up 7.3% • Trailing a weaker Q4/2014 (13.7%) adj. EBIT margin in Q1/2015 came in at 15.6%, within the group’s target range that is, despite pre-expenses for the expansion of global AM activities Business performance – operating cash flow Operating cash flow before income tax in € mn 27.4 28 24 20 16 11.1 12 Ø: €10.2mn 8 4 6.4 3.9 2.3 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014 Summary • Operating cash flow slightly lower as compared to Q1 2014 reaching € 2.3 (3.9) mn in Q1 2015 • As expected, higher NWC requirements (+ € 23.2 mn as compared to 31/12/2014). • NWC up on strong sales growth, higher inventories with regard to plant consolidation, expansion of PDCs and disproportionately high inventories in Russia due to the weak market situation. • Approx. € 7 mn of the increase in Q1 2015 related to FX effects Q1 2015 Net working capital in € mn and as % of sales 140 Inventories in € mn and days of inventories 20% 160 85 125.9 117.1 120 107.3 100 102.7 95.6 15% 125.5 122.7 120 114.2 75 122.2 65 100 80 60 135.9 140 12.1% 10.2% 10.9% 10.9% 11.6% 10% 80 54 58 55 56 56 60 40 5% 20 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 2014 8 45 40 35 20 0 Q4 Q1 2015 55 0 25 Q1 Q2 Q3 2014 Q4 Q1 2015 Financials – balance sheet in € mn 03/31/2015 % 12/31/2014 % Non-current assets 383.3 52.9% 363.9 56.4% Inventories 135.9 18.8% 122.2 18.9% Other current assets 166.8 23.0% 114.9 17.8% 38.7 5.3% 44.2 6.9% Total assets 724.7 100.0% 645.2 100.0% Equity 277.6 38.3% 248.6 38.5% 93.7 12.9% 87.3 13.5% Interest bearing loans and borrowings 184.3 25.4% 181.3 28.1% Other current liabilities 169.1 23.4% 128.0 19.9% Cash and cash equivalents Other non-current liabilities Net debt as of March 31, 2015: €145.6mn (12/31/14: €137.1mn) 9 Financials – profit and loss statement in €mn Q1/2015 % Q1/2014 % 271.0 100% 235.3 100% Cost of sales -220.0 -81.2% -191.3 -81.3% Gross profit 51.0 18.8% 44.0 18.7% Selling expenses -14.5 -5.4% -13.7 -5.8% Administrative expenses -11.2 -4.1% -10.6 -4.5% Sales Comments • 15.2% sales growth: Approx. one third organic, two thirds related to translational FX effects • Slightly improved gross margin (+0.1 PP) • SG&A cost increased at a lower percentage rate than sales • R&D spend constant at 2.0 % of sales R&D -5.4 -2.0% -4.7 -2.0% other 0.4 0.2% 0.1 0.0% 20.3 7.5% 15.1 6.4% 6.9 2.5% -3.1 -1.3% Earnings before tax 27.2 10.0% 12.0 5.1% Income Tax -9.1 -3.3% -3.7 -1.6% Result for the period 18.1 6.7% 8.3 3.5% Operating result • Disproportionate 34.4% growth in operating result • Significant improvement in net finance cost Financial Result 10 € 8.8 (0.1) mn in unrealized FX gains in Q1 2015 due to positive effects from intercompany loans Lower interest expenses due to improved financing structure: € 2.1 (2.4) mn Financials – cash flow statement in €mn Q1/2015 Q1/2014 Result before tax 27.1 12.0 Finance result -6.6 3.3 5.2 4.7 -24.3 -15.6 Other items cash flow 0.9 -0.5 Operating cash flow before income tax 2.3 3.9 Income tax paid -2.9 -2.3 Operating cash flow -0.6 1.6 Cash flow from Investing -5.6 -8.5 Cash flow from financing -0.4 0.8 Effect of f/X changes 1.1 0 Net change in cash -5.5 -6.1 Amortisation/depreciation Changes in Net Working Capital 11 Share price and shareholder structure Development of SAF-HOLLAND share price vs. indices (in %) Shareholder Structure (in %) As of April 2, 2015 Basic data for share as of March 31, 2015 SAF-HOLLAND share price development in Q1/2015 ISIN LU0307018795 • Share price increase of 34.6% compared to 2014 Number of shares 45,361,112 Closing price €14.94 Basic adjusted EPS €0.31 12 closing price. • Disproportionate share price development as compared to benchmark indices DAX and SDAX. 2020 strategy: Megatrends driving SAF-HOLLAND business Mega trends 2020 strategy Changing demographics until 2030 • Significantly growing world population • Aging societies • Increasing urbanization and concentration in cities SAF-HOLLAND key drivers 13 People Money Road network development Globalization & Future markets until 2030 • Disproportionate growth of real exports cp. to GDP • BRIC: ”The new powerhouse” middle class growing by 150% to 2 bn people • Next 11: Middle class expanding by 116% Goods • Global road network has grown by 25% in recent years • 2/3 of this growth originated in China and India • Chinese road network tripled within a 10-year time span Trucks/ Trailers Roads The right drivers for SAF-HOLLAND’s business People Money Goods Roads 14 Trucks/ Trailers Our demand was, is and will be driven by people, who have the money to buy goods that are transported in trucks on roads. Forecast development of global population 2015: 7,324,782,000 40.8% between age 25 and 55 2,988,511.000 15 +15% +12% People 2030: 8,424,937,000 39.8% between age 25 and 55 3,353,125,000 SAF-HOLLAND will profit from a significant growth of the global mid-ager (25 to 55) population featuring increasing purchasing power driving consumption Forecast development of global population People POPULATION and CONSUMERS (age 25 - 55) 2015 numbers in [000] people age 25 - 55 active consumers Population Δ vs. 2015 age 25 55 active consumers abs % WORLD 7,324,782 40.8% 2,988,511 8,424,937 15.0% 39.8% 3,353,125 364,614 12.2% Asia 4,384,844 43.2% 1,894,253 4,886,846 11.4% 42.7% 2,086,683 192,431 10.2% Africa 1,166,239 31.0% 361,534 1,634,366 40.1% 34.0% 555,684 194,150 53.7% Latin America + Caribbean 630,088 40.9% 257,706 716,617 13.7% 41.5% 297,396 39,690 15.4% Europe (w Russia) 743,122 42.8% 318,056 736,636 -0.9% 38.0% 279,922 -38,135 -12.0% North America (w/o Mex) 361,127 39.8% 143,729 403,373 11.7% 37.6% 151,668 7,940 5.5% 39,359 39.8% 15,665 47,317 20.2% 38.0% 17,980 2,316 14.8% Oceania 16 Population Δ consumers age 25 - 55 2030 Development of “big spender” part of the population varies strongly region by region with Europe being bottom of the league versus buoyant trends in Africa, Asia/ASEAN and Latin America: Regional focus for SAF-HOLLAND Global income development Shares of Global Middle Class Consumption, 2000-2050 Money Goods Middle Class: USD 10 and USD 100 in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms Middle class consumption as a share of global total purchasing power will fall tellingly in Europe as well as in the US while India, China and the ASEAN region post huge gains, picking up from 30% to 55%. 17 Source: OECD Development Centre; Working Paper 285; The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries, January 2010 Road network Trucks/ Trailers TOTAL km km 35,000,000 15,000,000 +24.5% 30,000,000 14,000,000 +56.8% 25,000,000 +4.0% 20,000,000 13,000,000 12,000,000 15,000,000 11,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 9,000,000 0 8,000,000 2005 2010 G7 Roads 2012 BRICS+MINT 2015 TOTAL Heavy investments in road infrastructure will occur predominantly in the emerging markets: Requirements for transport capacity – a key driver for demand for SAF-HOLLAND products – will grow by more than 50% in BRIC/ MINT countries 18 Source: CIA World Factbook SAF-HOLLAND extrapolated sales trend by region until 2030 Region Actual 2014 MTP 2020 Trend 2030 Core markets (Europe & North America) ~90% ~70% ~50% Emerging Markets/ RoW ~10% ~30% ~50% ΣΣ 100% 100% 100% SAF-HOLLAND will exploit the opportunities of the global megatrends outlined by organic growth and complementary acquisitions/cooperations; By 2020 30% of sales will originate from EM/RoW trending towards 50% by 2030 19 Source: CIA World Factbook SAF-HOLLAND strategic implementation measures: 8 areas of priority China all product areas Middle East/ Africa all product areas Trailer axles & suspensions (OE) Europe Trailer axles & suspensions (OE) North America 20 Truck suspensions (OE) all regions worldwide Bus suspensions (OE) all regions worldwide Spare parts Europe Spare parts North America SAF-HOLLAND technological and regional priority areas of activity enable the group to exploit sustainable growth opportunities from megatrends mid- and long-term. These areas of priority are bound to represent 80% of Group sales. Strategy 2020:Targets and outlook Mid term 2020 Sales target € 1.250 bn (organic growth) to € 1.500 bn with cooperations and complementary acquisitions supporting the group’s growth strategy outside the core regions • ~1/3 of sales to emanate from markets outside Europe & North America. • Adj. EBIT margin of at least 8%. • Increase of EPS by approx. 75% as compared to 2014 (higher number of shares from convertible bonds issue in 2014 fully considered). Long term 2030 The majority of our sales growth until 2030 is supposed to be outside of the core regions of North America and Europe. 21 Strategy 2020: Mid- and long-term sales shares and financial targets Sales in €mn Europe & NA 1600 250 1400 1250 160 100% 800 10% 120 33% 50% 40% 67% 50% 20% 0 2020 MT 40 20 0 0% 2014 Actual 71 60 90% 400 200 100 80 60% 600 ≥ 100 - 120 140 80% 960 Emerging markets /RoW 120% 1200 1000 Adj. EBIT in €mm Sales share in % 2014 Actual 2020 MT 2030 Trend 2014 Actual Average adj. EBIT margin of at least 8% in the medium term with an increase of EPS until 2020 by approx. 75% as compared to 2014* 22 *Fully considering the higher number of shares from convertible bond issue in 2014. 2020 MT Investment highlights / Equity story 23 1 Megatrends will provide sustainable mid- and long-term growth perspectives and business opportunities 2 SAF-HOLLAND will focus on and stay with its core competencies: “We will stay with where we are really good at” 3 Expand core competencies and applications into new markets outside current core regions Europe and North America 4 Taking advantage of strong market and technological position: Among TOP 3 players in every product area in predominantly oligopolistic markets 5 In emerging markets/RoW technological mid-market segments will be addressed, in which more technology is involved than what is available today 6 Product innovation: Ramp-up of new products 7 Aftermarket will be strengthened simultaneously focusing on Europe and North America: Targeted share in total Group sales of at least 25% Thank you for your attention. 24
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