DMCC GOLD BULLETIN Issue 2.9, September 2013 Dear Reader, It was great to see so many of you in Rome last month at the LBMA conference. The record attendance of over 700 delegates made this a great opportunity to catch up with industry colleagues and gauge the mood of the market. In case there were any doubts, Rome decisively settled on ‘Regulation’ as the theme of 2013 for the gold industry. As the head of a bullion bank told me: “I remember the days we used to have four traders for every compliance officer, now we need four officers for every trader!” Whether it is Dodd-Frank, EMIR, OECD or the 80-20 rule in India, regulators across the globe are tightening up the trade of what has increasingly become more of a financial asset rather than a commodity: gold. Sincerely, Franco Bosoni Director, DMCC Commodity Services Gold Price Movement (September, 2013) (US$ per Oz) The average gold price for September 2013 was US$ 1,348; a 0.3% increase from the previous month and 23% less than the same period last year. The price of gold has hovered around the US$ 1,300 mark and has failed to break through into US$ 1,400. A number of political and economic debates in the US legislature have made it next to impossible to predict the future of the price of gold. Gerhard Schubert, Head of Commodities, Emirates NBD, said, “The gold market appears to be extremely sensitive about all speeches, murmurs and rumours about the beginning of tapering the stimulus programme. It is going to happen, maybe at the upcoming FOMC meeting on 29 and 30 October, but most likely in the FOMC December meeting.” Gold price vs US debt ceiling The price of gold has reacted every time the US Federal Reserve convened to discuss the economic state of the country. This month the Fed discussed the issue of putting an end to - or tapering off - its US$ 85 billion bond program and the possibility of increasing the debt ceiling. The two factors have been playing a major role in the price performance of gold. On Oct. 1, Evan Lucas, market strategists with IG in Melbourne said, “The more and more we lurch towards October 17 and with no sort of deal being done with the debt ceiling, the stronger it [gold] is going to get.” In addition, he also expects gold prices to reach $1,400/oz if the uncertainty continues in the US. Source: LBMA Zane Lim, regional manager at Singapore's premier bullion dealer (BullionStar), said, “Many smaller investors are still ‘sitting on the fence,’ but the longer the U.S. budget talks drag on, the more likely they are to put their money on gold.” Source; WSJ.com In a recent survey conducted by Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley have predicted that the gold price will start to fall again in Q1, 2014. Barclays has also said the Fed’s decision on tapering was only ‘deferred’ and bullion may average US$1,270 by the end of 2014. Source: Bloomberg.com Issue 2.9, September 2013 DMCC Gold Bulletin Gold is still a ‘must have’ commodity Gerhard Schubert said, “Gold is currently in no-man’s land and there appears to be no need for fresh buying, unless the market is able to break the major resistance level at US $ 1,425 … However, we still recommend that gold should represent between 2% and 5% within a prudently managed investment portfolio, due to its mostly negative correlation with other asset classes.” India’s Jewellery import duty increases to 15% Over the past 18 months, there have been a number of measures passed by the Indian government to curb its current account deficit (CAD). Despite the measures, the country is still facing a record high CAD of 6.7% of its GDP. Since the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) introduced the 80:20 rule on the import of gold bars (20% of gold bars imported is for jewellery re-export and 80% is for the domestic market), traders have been exploring the possibility of importing gold jewellery from neighbouring trading hubs. In an attempt to avoid the 80:20 rule, traders started importing more jewellery, which could be used as an investment and/or refined and used to design jewellery. The government closed this loophole by increasing import duty to 15% on gold jewellery, which is higher than the bullion imports duty (10%). The Indian finance ministry issued a statement saying, “Jewellery making is a labour intensive industry, millions of artisans are dependent on this sector for their livelihood…there is an apprehension that Indian jewellery makers would not be able to compete with cheaper imports, particularly when majority of the imported jewellery is machine-made as compared to handmade jewellery in India.” Source ibtimes.com "This is a good move for the local industry and it will support the manufacturing sector," said Haresh Soni, Chairman of the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation. Major reasons for increasing the import duty Closing the loophole: restricting the import trade of gold jewellery Protecting the domestic industry: most of the jewellery imported is cheaper because it is machine-made (1% of gold value), incurring little to no labour cost in comparison to the Indian handmade jewellery (at 510% of gold value). The lower prices of the imported gold were affecting the local jewellery makers business An official statement from the government said, “To protect the interests of small artisans, the customs duty on articles of jewellery and of goldsmiths’ or silversmiths’ wares and parts thereof is being increased from 10% to 15%.” In addition the finance ministry mentioned that jewellery making was a labour-intensive industry, with millions of artisans dependent on this sector for their livelihood. Sudheesh Nambiath, India Analyst at GFMS Thomson Reuters, said: “After the duty on gold was increased to 10% and with new import norms in place, it made sense to import jewellery to meet at least partial requirement, as this was free of hassles. However, duty on jewellery at 15% has killed the benefit that existed.” Gold premium dips by 82% ahead of the Indian festive season Ahead of the festive season, there is some good news for Indian consumers. Premium on gold has declined in India by almost 82% to US$ 7 per ounce from as high as US$ 40 per ounce as imports have resumed after a gap of two months. Confirming the development, Pankaj Parekh, ViceChairman of Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council, said: "The customs authority has cleared gold consignments of banks last week. The Kolkata-based exporters have received gold from these consignments. In fact, I have personally exported 100kg of jewellery after receiving gold last week." Haresh Soni, Chairman, All India Gem & Jewellery Trade Federation said, "We had a round of talks with the RBI last week too, where officials from Nova Scotia Bank whose consignments had been held up at the customs, were also present. We are hoping that imports will resume before Navratri (Indian festival). Demand generally starts from Navratri period and continues till December - January. November-January is the wedding season in India when lot of purchases take place." Imports of the yellow metal will also boost exports, which had fallen by 68% between April-August when compared to the same period last year. Exports usually total only approximately 60-70 tonnes per year and compete for the Middle East and the United States market. A drop in premium will help prices to ease a bit. Source: economictimes.indiatimes.com Issue 2.9, September 2013 DMCC Gold Bulletin Market Update Emirates Gold - The first UAE refinery to pass the DMCC Responsible Sourcing Audit Emirates Gold is the first UAE refinery to pass the DMCC Responsible Sourcing Audit. The audit concluded that Emirates Gold has complied with each of the five steps of the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre’s (DMCC) Practical Guidance for Market Participants in the Gold and Precious Metals Industry – establishing supply chain management system, identifying and assessing risk, developing and implementing risk mitigation, carrying out an independent third party audit, and reporting annually – for the period from 1 June 2012 to 31 December 2012. Mohamad Shakarchi, CEO and Founder, Emirates Gold, said, “We are thrilled to position ourselves as a leader in the region and globally, on the subject of responsible gold. Dealers of Emirates Gold branded bars can draw comfort from this result. Responsible sourcing is our contribution to address and mitigate the various associated issues. On the one hand, this will create more transparency in the system, and on the other hand, producers of jewellery or electronic devices can feel more comfortable with the origin of their material. At present, Emirates Gold, has a refining capacity of up to 200 tonnes per year. It sells its products to international bullion traders, major retailers and jewellers locally, and in Europe and Asia to wholesalers who then distribute the bars in their respective countries or sell them online. For more information on Emirates gold visit their website: www.emiratesgold.ae GJEPC and Signet Jewellers recognise responsible sourcing standards adhered to by DMCC’s Dubai Good Delivery (DGD) refineries The Gem and Jewellery Council of India (GJEPC) supports the inclusion of imports of gold from Dubai Good Delivery Standard (DGD) compliant refiners into India. Simultaneously, Signet Jewellers Ltd. (Signet) confirmed that based on independent evaluation, the DGD standard is compliant with the Signet Responsible Sourcing Protocol (SRSP) for gold. Signet is the largest speciality retail jeweller in the USA and the UK. These recognitions will allow manufacturers in India to accept gold from refineries on the DGD list, as well as reassuring others in the supply chain that gold from DGD refineries is responsibly sourced. DGD refineries are all required to adhere to DMCC’s Practical Sourcing Guidance and Review Protocols (‘Guidance’). Gautam Sashittal, Chief Operating Officer, DMCC, said: Almas Tower Level 2 PO Box: 48800 Dubai U.A.E “The DMCC Practical Guidance and Review Protocol ensures that the DGD benchmark sets the highest global standards in responsibly sourcing minerals. Signet Jewellers’ confirmation of our alignment with their own guidelines and the support of the GJEPC of India of the inclusion of gold from DGD refineries are further testimony of the robustness of our approach and standards.” Pankaj Parekh, Vice Chairman of the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) of India, added: “We are encouraged to know that the Dubai Good Delivery Standard has been endorsed by Signet Jewellers, confirming that DGD-accredited refineries are in line with not only Signet’s benchmarks but international best practice as well. With Signet being one of our most significant clients, we are certain that this recognition will have a positive impact on the gold market in India, in the near future, in particular with regards to responsible supply chain management.” David Bouffard, Vice President, Corporate Affairs, Signet Jewellers, commented: “Signet holds itself and its suppliers to the highest social, ethical and environmental principles and is very focused on ensuring a responsible supply chain for the gold industry. After reviewing an independent assessment of DMCC’s responsible sourcing guidelines, audit protocol and the independent audit of DMCC’s processes versus those of other international bodies engaged in determining standards for responsible sourcing, we are pleased to recognise that DGD-accredited refineries operate in accordance to our protocol for gold.” DMCC and Responsible Jewellery Council Announce Cross-Recognition of their Responsible Sourcing Audit Programmes The Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) and the Responsible Jewellery Council (RJC) have agreed to cross recognise their responsible sourcing audit programmes. The mutual cross-recognition means: - RJC recognises that gold refineries that are accredited by DMCC’s DGD standard and comply with DMCC's responsible sourcing audit, will fulfil parts of Section 10 of the RJC Chain-of-Custody (‘CoC’) Standard - - DMCC will accept RJC CoC Certified gold refineries as demonstrating conformance with the DMCC Practical Guidance and Review Protocol Refiners will be able to save costs and reduce audit fatigue T. +971 4 433 67 11 F. +971 4 375 19 00 [email protected] Issue 2.9, September 2013 DMCC Gold Bulletin Interview with Philip Olden, Independent consultant to Signet Signet Jewelers Ltd. published the Signet Responsible Sourcing Protocols (“SRSPs”) for gold and the 3Ts (tin, tungsten and tantalum) to provide guidance to its suppliers to help ensure supplies of products containing these minerals are conflict-free. Compliance to these protocols will enable Signet to comply with U.S. law (known as the “Dodd-Frank” Act), and with likely future similar legislation in Europe. The SRSPs provide all companies through the supply chain, from refineries, banks through to manufacturers of finished products with details of how to make sure their products are conflict-free. It’s an open standard, available on the Signet website, and Signet encourages its use throughout the industry. We know that Signet Jewelers is the world's largest specialty retail jeweller, but what else can you tell us Signet’s sourcing of jewellery from the UAE, GCC and Indian subcontinent? Based on a recent independent evaluation, Signet has confirmed that the DGD standard, more particularly, the responsible sourcing provisions of the stand, is compliant with the SRSP. Like many other US and European companies, Signet sources a large proportion of its jewellery from the subcontinent, especially from India. a. What is your take on this new development? ‘Responsible Sourcing’ is a hot topic in the industry today. What is your take on this global issue and its current framework? Signet is very active in this area. We have been very involved with the establishment of the guidance and standards by the OECD and the Responsible Jewellery Council, of which Signet is a certified founding member, as well as the LBMA and DMCC. The alignment of guidance and standards between these organisations has helped us develop our protocols, especially for gold. What actions has Signet taken to enforce and ensure that manufacturers, jewellers and consumers in the gold market are compliant with SRSP? What lessons has Signet learnt? It’s encouraging, as the independent report confirmed that the DGD standard is consistent with the LBMA standard, and this harmonisation of standards is important for the industry to reduce costs and fragmentation of different guidance and standards. b. What does it mean for the gold market? And more specifically for gold traded through Dubai? It means that companies using gold from DGD certified refineries can be sure that this gold is not contributing to conflict, and that they can use it for supplies to Signet and many other international customers. It means that a very large proportion of refined gold in the world can now be certified as conflict-free, which was not possible even just a year ago. c. How does this development affect your supply chain? Throughout 2013, we have asked all suppliers to report progress towards compliance on a quarterly basis, through a simple online compliance report on behalf of Signet. The report asked suppliers to confirm the company’s compliance with the SRSP, what criteria the suppliers are using to make a statement of compliance, and what proof suppliers will be able to provide to independent auditors. If the company is not yet compliant, the survey asked suppliers to confirm why, what action the company needs to take, and when the supplier expects the company to become compliant. Its largest effect is on our suppliers in India. Dubai is a major refining centre and a transit point for gold into India, and so with both the LBMA and DGD standards in place, our suppliers in India can easily source conflict-free gold. Signet has asked all suppliers to be fully compliant with the SRSP by the end of 2013, and once suppliers confirm compliance, the SRSP is a required reference on all invoices, delivery notes and all other relevant documentation (for example, alongside and in the same way as the Kimberley Process statements for diamonds). Through this process, we learned that Signet was one of the leading companies doing this work, and so we had to spend a lot of time educating and helping our supply chain but now, as we see the results of the compliance reports from our suppliers, we can see that this effort was very worthwhile. Simply, take the SRSPs from the Signet website (www.signetjewelers.com) and apply the guidance to wherever you source your gold. Establish clear terms of business with your suppliers, and make sure you understand who you are buying from (known as “Know Your Counterparty”) and don’t deal in any gold if you are not sure of its provenance. In addition, if you buy gold in bar form, make the DGD and LBMA “good delivery” a part of your terms of business with the bank or whoever sells you those bars. What is your advice to jewellery manufacturers and retailers in UAE, GCC and Indian subcontinent, if they need to comply with SRSP? Would it assist/add value if DGD bars were used in their supply chain?
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