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Report from the Crime Prevention Research Center
Economists’ views on guns: Crime, suicides, and right-‐to-‐carry concealed handgun laws February 2, 2015
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Gary Mauser
Professor Emeritus, Department of Marketing
Simon Fraser University
[email protected]
John R. Lott, Jr.
President
[email protected]
484-802-5373
Media Contact:
Rebekah C. Riley
Director of Communications
[email protected]
386-717-9210
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Introduction Surveying the academic literature provides one useful way of understanding the relationship between gun ownership and crime. Alternatively, one can survey researchers who have published peer-‐reviewed research on the topic. From August 25th to September 12th 2014, the Crime Prevention Research Center emailed a survey to 50 researchers. Since Gary Becker’s seminal contribution on the economics of crime in the the Journal of Political Economy1, economists have been deeply involved in research to determine what causes crime and what deters crime. Therefore, this study was created as the first of its kind, specifically targeting economists who have published peer-‐reviewed research on the relationship between gun ownership and crime. The survey showed a great deal of uniformity in researchers’ views on issues such as gun use in crime and self-‐defense, the risk of gun-‐free zones, firearms and suicide, and concealed handgun laws. Yet, while researchers from both the United States and Canada have extremely similar views that private gun ownership makes people safer, the few researchers from Australia and Sweden are much more supportive of gun control. For North American researchers: 88% believe that guns are more frequently “used in self-‐defense than they are used in the commission of crime;” 91% believe that gun-‐free zones are “more likely to attract criminals than they are to deter them;” 72% do not believe that “a gun in the home causes an increase in the risk of suicide;” 91% say that “concealed handgun permit holders are much more law-‐abiding than the typical American;” and 81% say that permitted concealed handguns lower the murder rate. Including the researchers from Australia and Sweden lowers these percentages by between 3 and 8 percentage points, but the numbers are still quite high. The percentages here are similar to those found in literature surveys on concealed carry laws.2 As we will discuss, this survey also provides results that are consistent with surveys of the general United States adult population by Gallup and the Pew Research Center. 4
Methodology The list of researchers was obtained using JSTOR (www.jstor.org), selecting their Economics subset (632 sources), and doing a full-‐text search for “gun control” for all years, limited to peer-‐reviewed books and articles (not book reviews, miscellaneous). We obtained 234 hits. We then obtained copies of all the articles to determine if the articles contained empirical work on the issues of guns and crime or accidents or suicides. Empirical studies that only tried to explain how politicians voted on gun control or voter behavior were excluded. The questionnaire sent to researchers was very short, consisting of between six and eleven questions. On average taking the survey took 3 minutes and one second to complete. An email was sent to a list of 53 researchers who had published peer-‐
reviewed research on firearms in economics journals from January 1997 to July 2013, though in three cases the email address was no longer valid and we were unable to obtain a current email. Of the valid email addresses, 43 were Americans, 4 were Canadians, 2 were Australians, and one was Swedish. Overall, there was a 70 percent response rate (35 out of 50). Ninety-‐one percent (32) of those responding were from the United States and Canada. For those who didn’t respond to the initial questionnaire, a couple follow-‐up emails were sent, and then Professor Gary Mauser at Simon Frazer University made a telephone call to encourage participation. Those who took the survey answered all the questions. While we know the identity of the individuals who took the survey, individuals were promised anonymity. The survey itself was designed to elicit information on the researchers’ intensity of views, with two versions of each question being asked. First, a question was asked with the options: “yes,” “no,” or “I don’t know.” If the researcher did not answer “I don’t know,” there was a total of six questions. Whenever a researcher answered “I don’t know,” the question was asked a second time and the researcher was just given definitive answers: “yes” or “no.” Both sets of results are reported. The survey was conducted using Surveygizmo.com. 5
Results Question 1: In the United States, are guns used in self-‐defense more often than they are used in the commission of crime? North American Researchers Researchers from entire world With With undecided With leaners undecided With leaners Yes 66% 88% 60% 83% No 6% 12% 9% 17% I don't know 31% 31% 6
Question 2: Are gun-‐free zones, areas where civilians are banned from having guns, more likely to attract criminals than they are to deter them? North American Researchers Researchers from entire world With With undecided With leaners undecided With leaners Yes 81% 91% 74% 83% No 3% 9% 11% 17% I don't know 16% 14% 7
Question 3: Would you say that, in the United States, having a gun in the home causes an increase in the risk of suicide North American Researchers Researchers from entire world With With undecided With leaners undecided With leaners Yes 22% 28% 23% 31% No 63% 72% 57% 69% I don't know 16% 20% 8
Question 4: Would you say that concealed handgun permit holders are much more law-‐abiding than the typical American? North American Researchers Researchers from entire world With With undecided With leaners undecided With leaners Yes 88% 91% 80% 83% No 6% 9% 9% 17% I don't know 6% 11% Question 5: How does allowing people to carry a permitted concealed handgun affect the murder rate? North American Researchers Researchers from entire world With With undecided With leaners undecided With leaners Decrease 72% 81% 66% 74% No Effect 13% 19% 11% 20% Increase 0% 0% 3% 6% I don't know 16% 20% 10
For the last question, researchers were asked to “please cite one academic study that best supports your answer as to how allowing people to carry a permitted concealed handgun will affect the murder rate.” Papers getting at least two citations are listed here. Ten of those surveyed were unable to reference a single “best” study to support their position. “Please cite one academic study that best supports your answer as to how allowing people to carry a permitted concealed handgun will affect the murder rate” Studies that got at least two cites John Lott and David Mustard, Journal of Legal Studies, 1997 5 John Lott, More Guns, Less Crime, University of Chicago Press 3 F Plassmann & TN Tideman, Does the Right to Carry Concealed Handguns Deter Countable Crimes-‐Only a Count Analysis Can Say, JL & Econ., 2001 2 Carl Moody and Teb Marvell, Southern Economic Journal, 2005 2 Eric Helland and Alex Tabarrok, Advances in Economic Analysis & Policy, 2004 2 Other answers Papers that got only one cite 11 Researchers who said that they could not point to a “best” study 10 Comparison to other recent surveys of Americans The perceptions of the general adult population in the United States, with most people now believing the “More Guns, Less Crime” hypothesis. Last fall, Gallup asked Americans if they thought residents are safer with a gun in the home. People answered “Yes” by a margin of 63 to 30 percent.3 Another Gallup survey found that sixty percent of gun owners listed “Personal Safety/Protection” as the reason for owning a gun.4 Finally, a December 2014 Pew Research Center survey found that 57 percent believe gun ownership “protects people from becoming victims of crime” versus 37 percent believe that it “puts people’s safety at risk.”5 11
As Figures 6 and 7 show, Americans have become more convinced over time that gun ownership makes them safer. While the Pew Research Center poll only goes back to 2012, the Gallup survey data shows a dramatic change over 14 years. Combining the Gallup and Pew surveys with ours indicates that public opinion is aligning more closely with current academic research. These changing views about the benefit of gun ownership might explain Pew survey’s recent spike showing that most Americans are opposed to more gun control. Opposition to gun control has been increasing over at least the last couple of decades. It appears as if people are realizing that regulations — such as gun-‐free zones — tend to encourage attacks by disarming law-‐abiding citizens instead of criminals.6
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Conclusion The vast majority of researchers who have published refereed articles in economics journals think that gun ownership makes people safer. There has been a dramatic change in the views of Americans generally, with their views becoming much closer to those of academics. While we don’t have similar surveys of academics in previous years, the literature reviews have consistently pointed to similar results.7 It thus appears as if the views of American adults on gun ownership are approaching those of economists. American researcher feel strongest about two issues: that gun-‐free zones attract rather than deter criminals and that concealed handgun permit holders are much more law-‐
abiding than the typical American. 13
End Notes
1
Gary Becker. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach". The Journal of
Political Economy 76: 169–217 (1968).
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Carlisle E. Moody and Thomas B. Marvell. 2009. The Debate on Shall Issue Laws,
Continued. Econ Journal Watch 6(2): 203-217. John R. Lott, Jr., “What a balancing test
will show for right-to-carry laws,” University of Maryland Law Review, Vol. 71 (2012):
1205-1218. See also various editions of Lott’s “More Guns, Less Crime” (University of
Chicago Press, 1998, 2000, and 2010).
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Justin McCarthy, “More Than Six in 10 Americans Say Guns Make Homes Safer,”
October 2014 (http://www.gallup.com/poll/179213/six-americans-say-guns-homessafer.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_content=morelink&utm_campa
ign=syndication).
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Art Swift, “Personal Safety Top Reason Americans Own Guns Today,” October 2013
(http://www.gallup.com/poll/165605/personal-safety-top-reason-americans-own-gunstoday.aspx).
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Pew Research Center, “Growing Public Support for Gun Rights,” Pew Research Center
for the People and the Press, October 2013 (http://www.peoplepress.org/2014/12/10/growing-public-support-for-gun-rights/).
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John R. Lott, Jr., “Why most Americans oppose more gun control,” December 2014
(http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2014/12/30/why-most-americans-oppose-more-guncontrol/)
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Carlisle E. Moody and Thomas B. Marvell. 2009. The Debate on Shall Issue Laws,
Continued. Econ Journal Watch 6(2): 203-217. John R. Lott, Jr., “What a balancing test
will show for right-to-carry laws,” University of Maryland Law Review, Vol. 71 (2012):
1205-1218. See also various editions of Lott’s “More Guns, Less Crime” (University of
Chicago Press, 1998, 2000, and 2010).