ORBITE: A STRATEGIC GALLIUM PRODUCER Prepared by Marcel Côté, Partner, SECOR Guillaume Caudron, Senior Manager, SECOR Kristy Wilson, Manager, SECOR September 2012 Version 1 MONTREAL :: NEW YORK :: PARIS :: QUEBEC :: TORONTO :: VANCOUVER TABLE OF CONTENTS DISCLAIMER AND GENERAL INTRODUCTION ................................................................................... 3 Disclaimer ................................................................................................................................................ 3 General Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 4 The Study ............................................................................................................................................. 4 Methodological Framework ............................................................................................................ 4 Document Structure .......................................................................................................................... 4 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................... 5 2. GALLIUM 101 .......................................................................................................................... 7 What is Gallium? .................................................................................................................................... 7 Global Gallium Production .................................................................................................................. 8 Major Gallium Producers ................................................................................................................ 10 A Future North American Producer: Orbite Aluminae ............................................................. 10 Global Gallium Demand .................................................................................................................... 11 3. PRODUCT USES AND APPLICATIONS ......................................................................................... 14 Integrated Circuits ............................................................................................................................... 15 Optoelectronics ................................................................................................................................... 17 Photovoltaic (PV) Cells and Other Applications ........................................................................... 19 4. ORBITE ALUMINAE: POSITIONED TO BECOME A STRATEGIC LOW-COST G ALLIUM SUPPLIER........... 20 Orbite’s Unique By-product Recovery Process .............................................................................. 20 Production Estimates........................................................................................................................... 21 Capital and Operating Costs ........................................................................................................... 22 Orbite’s Capacity to Become a Strategic Player in the Gallium Market ................................. 22 5. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................23 ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ......................................................................................................... 24 ABOUT…...................................................................................................................................25 About Orbite......................................................................................................................................... 25 About SECOR ....................................................................................................................................... 25 Version 1 2 DISCLAIMER AND GENERAL INTRODUCTION DISCLAIMER Some statements contained in this document are forward-looking. These forward-looking statements relate to Orbite’s future financial conditions, intentions, expectations, beliefs and operational or business results. These statements may be current expectations and estimates relating to markets in which Orbite operates and assumptions regarding these markets. In some instances, these statements require management to make assumptions, and there is a significant risk that these assumptions may not be correct. The words “may,” “would,” “could,” “will,” “intend,” “plan,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “expect” and other similar expressions, as they relate to Orbite or its market, often identify forward-looking statements. Such statements reflect SECOR’s current beliefs and are based on information currently available. These statements are subject to important risks, uncertainties that are difficult to predict, market versatility, and assumptions that may prove inaccurate. The results or events predicted in forward-looking statements may differ substantially from actual results or events. SECOR and Orbite disclaim any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information and opinions contained in this document or on their accuracy or completeness. No representation, warranty or undertaking, expressed or implied, is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document by SECOR or Orbite, their respective employees or its affiliates, and no liability is accepted by such persons for the accuracy or completeness of any such information and opinions. Nothing contained herein can be relied upon as a promise or representation as to past or future performance. Orbite’s Revised Preliminary Economic Assessment published on May 31, 2012 (PEA), is preliminary in nature and it includes Inferred Mineral Resources of aluminous clay as they relate to alumina, metals oxides and earth rare elements that are considered too speculative geologically to have the economic considerations applied to them that would enable them to be categorized as Mineral Reserves. There is no certainty that the conclusions reached in the PEA will be realized. Mineral Resources that are not Mineral Reserves have not demonstrated economic viability. The information of a scientific or technical nature relating to the Orbite processes and mineral resources discussed herein has been reviewed and approved by Denis Primeau, Eng., a “qualified person” pursuant to National Instrument 43-101 – Standards of Disclosure of Mineral Projects (NI 43-101). Mr. Primeau is the Chief Engineer of Orbite, and as such, is not independent pursuant to NI 43-101. Version 1 3 Disclaimer and General Introduction… GENERAL INTRODUCTION THE STUDY This study is an analysis of the global market for Gallium (Ga) and the opportunity it presents for Orbite Aluminae. Orbite will produce gallium as a by-product of its alumina production, which uses a new proprietary process to extract alumina from aluminous clay and various ores. “Orbite: a strategic gallium producer,” is part of a series of five white papers. Topics addressed in the additional four reports include: High-purity alumina (HPA) market potential and Orbite’s competitive advantages Orbite’s red mud remediation and mineral recovery process Orbite: a strategic rare earth elements producer Orbite: a strategic scandium producer All five reports present a strategic view of the various markets and products Orbite is targeting and producing outside of smelter-grade alumina (SGA), which has been fully covered by the PEA. 1 METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK Using existing studies, public data, reports from experts, and information and data provided by Orbite, this white paper presents a point of view on Orbite’s gallium market potential based on collected data and SECOR’s analyses. This study presents a strategic rather than technical point of view. DOCUMENT STRUCTURE This study consists of three sections: An introduction to gallium that describes its main characteristics and gives an overview of global production -- including major producers and consumers, as well as trends in demand and pricing. A review of various end-uses and applications of gallium. Orbite Aluminae’s product offerings and key advantages. 1 Orbite NI 43-101 Revised Technical Report, prepared by Roche and Genivar (May 30, 2012) Version 1 4 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Gallium (Ga) is a rare metal extracted as a by-product of alumina processing. It is a strategic material used as a semiconductor in various applications for a number of key industries, many of which are currently experiencing rapid growth. Gallium is produced in relatively small volumes worldwide, but leading producer countries such as China plan to expand their production capacity. Current production capacity is approximately 260-320 metric tonnes (mt)/year. China is by far the largest producer with ~140 mt of installed capacity and significant expansion plans in progress. – Various degrees of purity are needed for different applications of gallium. In most cases, manufacturers use high-purity gallium 4N (99.99% purity) and then further refine it as needed to reach the purity level they require. Demand for gallium has greatly increased in the past 10 years due to the rapid growth of key end-use markets. In 2010, an estimated 160 to 180 mt of crude gallium were consumed globally – despite the economic downturn. While recent large fluctuations in pricing have stemmed from an oversupply on the market, independent pricing information has not been published since 2001 and price estimates vary widely. – 4N Ga has ranged in price from a high of US$1,000/kg down as low as US$275/kg since January 2011. Gallium metal is primarily used as gallium arsenide (GaAs) and gallium nitride (GaN) in integrated circuits and optoelectronics, which represent 69 percent and 30 percent of consumption respectively. Gallium arsenide (GaAs) is an essential material in integrated circuits, used primarily in mobile devices such as smartphones and tablet PCs. Gallium nitride (GaN) use is growing for LEDs in liquid crystal display (LCD) monitors, laser diodes in high-density data storage devices, and photovoltaic cells in solar panels. Most of these end uses are experiencing significant growth, driving up the demand for high-quality gallium, and this trend is forecasted to continue. Gallium is considered a strategic metal by the European Union and the United States for its use in electronics manufacturing, aerospace and defence applications, and for research and development. Orbite would be the only crude gallium supplier in North America, offering clients a continuous source of pure gallium and reducing dependence on Chinese imports. Orbite would be a low-cost producer of gallium, as it is extracted as a by-product of Orbite’s smelter grade alumina (SGA) production, the company’s primary product. Orbite’s proprietary process allows the company to rapidly and efficiently extract gallium and rare earth elements including scandium, further enabling Orbite to be a low-cost producer. Orbite’s smelter grade SGA plant is scheduled to enter into production in 2014, and its design capacity is estimated at ~91mt of high-purity gallium (≥99.99% or 4N) per year. Orbite estimates potential annual revenues from gallium of between US$42 million and US$55 million at current prices. Orbite’s low-cost gallium production should also protect it from spot market conditions, allowing it to operate as a steady supplier even under changing pricing scenarios.The strategic location of Orbite’s first SGA plant, near the St. Lawrence River in eastern Quebec, will give it easy access to primary markets, which in turn will allow it to provide a secure supply of high-quality gallium and reduce dependency on Chinese producers. Version 1 5 1. Executive Summary… Orbite’s process is environmentally friendly, as it generates no toxic residues, avoiding disposal costs and problems with hazardous material such as red mud, which results from alumina production through the Bayer process. Version 1 6 2. GALLIUM 101 WHAT IS GALLIUM? Gallium (Ga) is a relatively common element, soft and white-silver in colour, with the atomic number 32. In its pure powder form it has the exceptional quality of melting at just below 30ºC. It naturally occurs in trace amounts as a chemical compound in the ore of various minerals such as bauxite, zinc, and coal. Gallium content in bauxite is typically 50 parts per million. Economically recoverable reserves of gallium are rare due to its low concentration. It is only produced as a by-product of the refining process of various metals, and is extracted during alumina production from bauxite or during zinc residue processing. There are various methods for producing alumina, and thus gallium. The most commonly used process is the Bayer process, which begins with washing, crushing, and then dissolving bauxite in caustic soda at high temperature and pressure. This produces a solution of sodium aluminate and non-dissolved bauxite residue. The non-dissolved bauxite residue contains iron, silicon, titanium, aluminum and other elements in small quantities, including gallium. This residue, called “red mud” is highly toxic and has a significant detrimental impact on the environment. BAYER PROCESS Source: International Aluminium Institute Orbite’s proprietary process for alumina extraction does not produce red mud. The Company’s nonpolluting technology recovers a very high percentage of aluminates from the feedstock, and also recovers other minerals and metals that are left over from the alumina extraction process (by-products), including gallium. Version 1 7 2. Gallium 101… Gallium extracted from bauxite or zinc residue is impure and must be further refined to the purity level required for each specific application. High-grade gallium, which starts at 4N or 99.99% purity, is often shipped in this form and then further purified by manufacturers in-house 2. Gallium is primarily used in compound form. The two most common compounds, representing 98 percent of consumption, are gallium arsenide (GaAs) and gallium nitride (GaN) 3. GaAs is a semi-conductor and that is used for high-frequency electronics including microprocessors, integrated circuits, Wi-Fi chips, microwaves, and lasers. GaN is used in light-emitting diodes (LEDs), and has been essential to the development of highbrightness LEDs. Demand for these applications has been largely driven by the growth of the market for personal laptops, tablet computers, smartphones, and flat-screen televisions. Other compounds include gallium phosphorus (GaP), used in optoelectronic components and integrated circuits, as well as copper indium gallium selenide (Cu(Ga,In)Se2 or CIGS), which is being used more frequently in photovoltaic applications. Overall, gallium’s unique characteristics and specialized functions make it very difficult to substitute. GLOBAL GALLIUM PRODUCTION Global gallium reserves in bauxite deposits are estimated at over 1 million metric tonnes 4. There is also a significant quantity to be found within the world’s zinc reserves. However, only a fraction of gallium reserves are economically recoverable due to their low concentration levels and the high cost of extraction and production. Therefore it is difficult to ascertain an accurate estimate of the world’s total economic reserves. Gallium is produced primarily as a by-product of alumina production from bauxite, and the major bauxiteproducing countries currently include China, Australia, Guinea, and Brazil. Many known gallium-bearing bauxite deposits will not be mined in the near term because they are not yet accessible. Global crude gallium production capacity is estimated to be between 260 and 320 metric tonnes (mt) per year, with 270 mt of refinery capacity and 198 mt of recycling capacity. The primary supplying countries of crude gallium are China (141 mt production capacity), Germany (35 mt), and Kazakhstan (25 mt). For optoelectronics 7N or 99.99999% purity is required, while for use in integrated circuits this can range up to 9N or 99.9999999%. 3 Primary end uses in the U.S. according to the U.S. Geological Survey. 4 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), January 2012. 2 Version 1 8 2. Gallium 101… GLOBAL CRUDE GALLIUM PRODUCTION CAPACITY 2010 Estimates, Metric Tonnes (mt) COUNTRY CAPACITY (MT) China 141 Germany 5 35 Kazakhstan 25 Korea, Republic of 16 Ukraine 15 Japan 10 Russia 10 Hungary 8 TOTAL 260 Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Actual crude gallium production was estimated at 215 mt in 2011, up from approximately 160-180 mt in 2010. If planned capacity expansions are completed, Chinese production could double by the end of 2012, creating global concerns about an overdependence on Chinese sources. Recycling is another significant source of gallium, with current global capacity estimated at 198 mt. There are two sources of recycled gallium: pre-industrial and post-consumer. Pre-industrial waste or “process scrap” is a good source of both crude and refined gallium since just 15 percent of input material is actually used to manufacture consumer electronics. The remaining 85 percent is lost in production and some of it can be recovered. Countries involved in pre-industrial gallium recycling include the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany. Post-consumer recycling refers to products at the end of their life cycle, but this second source remains marginal as quantities are either too small or not easily recovered. Recycling potential in China has not been ascertained, but high consumption levels suggest there is untapped potential for secondary gallium. 5 Owned by the American company GEO Specialty Chemicals. Version 1 9 2. Gallium 101… MAJOR GALLIUM PRODUCERS GEO Gallium of France, a subsidiary of GEO Specialty Chemicals, an American company, is the world’s largest producer of refined gallium, and the world’s only fully integrated producer. GEO Gallium produces crude gallium at its plant in Germany, which is then refined to the 6N and 7N levels in France. Chalco, a subsidiary of state-owned Chinalco (Aluminium Corp of China Ltd.), is the world’s second largest alumina producer. It is a smelter-grade alumina producer based in China, and a major producer of high-grade crude gallium metal and gallium oxide (4N). Japan’s largest producer, Sumitomo Chemicals, is a subsidiary of the Sumitomo Group that has a gallium plant in Shanghai, China. Sumitomo Electric Industries, which is also part of the Group, uses this gallium for the advanced electronic devices and components that it designs, manufactures, and sells. Another Japanese player is Dowa Mining Ltd., a producer of gallium from zinc ore imported from its Mexican mine. There are no crude gallium producers in North America, however there are a number of refiners and recyclers. For example, American GMG Inc. (AGMG) is a refiner of high-purity metals, and a distributor of compound semiconductor substrates including GaAs. The company also has production and research facilities in China. Recapture Metals Ltd., based in the United States, is the primary recovered gallium producer in North America with 50 metric tonnes of capacity. Its source material comes from customer scrap, purchased pre-industrial scrap, and low-purity imports. A FUTURE NORTH AMERICAN PRODUCER: ORBITE ALUMINAE Orbite will be the only high-quality gallium producer in North America, with the ability to produce significant quantities of ≥4N Ga. Orbite’s facilities, which will be located in the Gaspé region in eastern Quebec, will be built near a 6,441 hectare property that holds a world class aluminous clay deposit. Its proximity to the St. Lawrence River will also facilitate transportation to key markets, namely the European Union and the United States. Orbite will develop its own aluminous clay deposits using a highly efficient proprietary process to extract alumina from the clay, as well as a series of by-product metals that are found in various concentrations in the clay. Gallium will be one of the by-products along with several other rare earth elements including scandium. Based on analysis of the clay deposit, Orbite’s annual production of gallium is projected to reach ~90 mt at the SGA plant, which is scheduled to be in production by 2014. This assumes that the first of ten plants that will each have 7,000-tonne clay feed throughput per day. Based on results from Orbite’s full-scale pilot plant in Germany, recovery rates of over 91 percent are expected for gallium and other rare earth elements, which would make Orbite a significant producer of high-quality gallium – behind China but ahead of Western Europe. Version 1 10 2. Gallium 101… GLOBAL GALLIUM DEMAND Although individual countries’ demands are difficult to ascertain, global consumption of crude gallium in 2010 was estimated to be between 160-180 mt, up 50 percent from 2006 6. The largest users are China, the United States, Japan, and Western Europe. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) tracks apparent consumption in the United States. In 1975, the United States’ consumption of gallium represented around 70 percent of total global production, although volumes were much lower. In 2010, the United States’ share of the world’s demand was down to about 18 percent or 33.5 mt, reflecting the growth of electronic manufacturing in Asia. The United States imports 100 percent of its gallium and its primary sources, including recovered gallium, include the United Kingdom (35 percent), Germany (24 percent), China (21 percent) and Canada (7 percent). GLOBAL REFINED GALLIUM PRODUCTION VERSUS U.S. CONSUMPTION 1974-2010, metric tonnes (mt) Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Demand for gallium is expected to grow significantly due to increasing consumption of third and fourth generation smartphones and high-performance electronics, applications that are linked to global GDP growth. That said, the current demand of 160-180 mt/year is lower than current production capacity of 260-320 mt/year, and this overcapacity in the market will impact pricing – although producers will likely monitor supply in order to support firm pricing. PRICING While gallium producers usually set the price for the metal, prices are kept confidential under long-term contracts, and pricing information has not been publicly available since 2001. Based on available estimates (United States average import data), 4N quality gallium had an estimated average selling price of US$307/kg in 2010 while ≥6N grade7 was selling at US$600/kg. 6 MineralInfo.org Version 1 11 2. Gallium 101… GALLIUM PRICES FOR VARIOUS PURITY LEVELS 2006-2010, US$ per kg Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Pricing for gallium can fluctuate significantly throughout a year. According to reports, there was an extreme shortage in 2001 and gallium prices climbed to more than US$2,000/kg 8. In early 2011, price estimates for 4N gallium reached highs of US$1,000/kg, but by December had dropped to US$640/kg. As of July 17, 2012, prices had dropped further to US$350/kg. DAILY GALLIUM PRICE ESTIMATES FOR 4N PURITY (99.99%), CIF* March 1st 2011 – July 17th, 2012, US$ per kg 1,000 1,000 900 970 800 700 640 600 590 500 400 350 300 320 Low CIF (EU) High CIF (EU) 200 100 0 Mar 2011 May 2011 Jul 2011 Sep 2011 Nov 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2012 May 2012 Jul 2012 *(Cost Insurance, Freight) from Major Airport in EU based in warehouse Rotterdam duty unpaid Source: Metal Pages Inc. 7 8 US customs does not specify purity levels, so prices are only available for the average of all grades of purity level ≥6N. USGS Version 1 12 2. Gallium 101… Over the past year there has been high variability in price; however, on a 3-6 month basis, prices have been relatively stable. As seen below, delivered prices (FOB 9) from China are generally lower than CIF 10 prices from Europe. AVERAGE G ALLIUM PRICES (4N, 99.99%) CIF MAIN AIRPORT (EU) AVERAGE G ALLIUM PRICES (4N, 99.99%) FOB (CHINA) Last 12 Months July 17th 2011- July 17th, 2012, $US/kg Last 12 Months July 17th 2011- July 17th, 2012, $US/kg Low High Low Median High Median 616 567 557 547 560 493 434 410 379 3-month average 440 428 430 420 424 417 410 376 6-month average 12-month average Year to date average 361 350 360 346 3-month average 6-month average 12-month average Year to date average Source: Metal Page Inc. Further softness in pricing is expected in 2012, but prices are likely to recover. This high variability in pricing underscores the importance of being a low-cost producer in order to comfortably maintain consistent production levels and minimize impacts of market conditions on production. Free on Board: the seller/exporter/manufacturer clears the goods for export and is responsible for the costs and risks of delivering the goods past the ship’s rail at the named port of shipment. 10 Cost, Insurance and Freight: seller/exporter/manufacturer clears the goods past the ship’s rail at the port of shipment. 9 Version 1 13 3. PRODUCT USES AND APPLICATIONS Gallium is primarily used as a semiconductor in the electronics industry, and semiconductor market performance generally relates to worldwide GDP growth. If the market recovery continues, then the semiconductor industry should follow suit as consumer and commercial spending on devices grows in response. SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY GROWTH VERSUS WORLDWIDE GDP GROWTH 1987-2013 Global GDP Growth Global Recession Threshold WW Semi Industry Growth 50 5.0 4.5 40 30 3.5 20 3.0 15% 2.5 10 2.0 0 1.5 -10 1.0 0.5 Semi Industry Change Worldwide GDP Change 4.0 -20 0.0 -30 -0.5 -40 2013F 2012F 2011F 2010F 2009F 2008 2007 2005 2006 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 -1.0 Year Sources: IC Insights Semiconductors are used in a variety of sectors including telecommunications, medical equipment, aerospace, and consumer goods. Almost all gallium consumption (~97 percent) is used in one of two compound forms, gallium arsenide (GaAs) and gallium nitride (GaN), for two dominant applications – integrated circuits (ICs), and optoelectronics. In the United States, 69 percent of gallium goes into ICs; another 30 percent is used in optoelectronic applications, and the remaining 1 percent is used for research and development, and other minor applications. Version 1 14 3. Product Uses and Applications… US Gallium Consumption by End-Use 2005-2010, Metric Tonnes Source: USGS INTEGRATED CIRCUITS Integrated circuits (IC), or microchips, constitute the largest market for gallium in the United States, accounting for 69 percent of consumption, or 23.3 metric tonnes. Over 90 percent of this is used in analog ICs for sensors, power management circuits, and operational amplifiers in mobile applications for mass market products such as smartphones and tablet PCs. There are no current substitutes for gallium that provide the same level of performance. US GALLIUM CONSUMPTION FOR INTEGRATED CIRCUITS BY END-USE 2010, metric tonnes, percent Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Version 1 15 3. Product Uses and Applications… Demand for smartphones and tablet PCs, which rely more and more heavily on GaAs, is growing rapidly. According to USGS, 4G phones require up to six times more GaAs than typical low-functioning cell phones. SMARTPHONE UNIT SALES VERSUS SHARE OF TOTAL CELLPHONE SHIPMENTS Q1 2009 – Q4 2011F SmartPhone Unit Sales (M) Smartphone Share of Total Cellphone Shipments 160 40 176M; +8% 465M; +64% 35 120 30 100 25 80 20 60 15 40 10 20 5 0 Smartphone Marketshare Millions of Units 140 290M; +65% 0 Q1-2009 Q2-2009 Q3-2009 Q4-2009 Q1-2010 Q2-2010 Q3-2010 Q4-2010 Q1-2011 Q2-2011 Q3-2011 Q4-2011F Quarter Sources: Nokia, IC Insights Smartphone sales increased by 65 percent in 2010 and by another 64 percent in 2011, compared to an 8 percent increase in 2009. GLOBAL PC UNIT SHIPMENTS 2000-2015F 800 Tablets 766 Standards PCs 700 529 500 468 414 400 366 146 139 142 158 2002 2003 200 2001 300 2000 Millions of Units 643 2010-2015 CAGR Total Units = +15.9% Total Without Tablets = +4.6% 600 182 210 233 263 290 310 100 2015F 2014F 2013F 2012F 2011E 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 0 Year Sources: IC Insights Sales of personal computers continue to grow, but future growth will be driven primarily by tablet PCs. The tablet market has experienced strong growth in recent years, and this trend is expected to continue. Version 1 16 3. Product Uses and Applications… OPTOELECTRONICS GaAs is also used in optoelectronic devices, which are divided into three main categories: LEDs, laser diodes, and photovoltaic (PV) cells used in solar panels. Of those, LEDs and laser diodes account for 94 percent of the optoelectronics market. US GALLIUM CONSUMPTION FOR OPTOELECTRONIC DEVICES BY END-USE 2010, metric tonnes percent Source: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Light-Emitting Diodes (LEDs) Both GaAs and GaN are used in LED technology, however GaN remains the dominant technology in highbrightness LED devices. Growth in this end-use is driven by increased demand for liquid crystal display (LCD) computer monitors and LED-based backlit televisions. LED technology allows for the design of thinner, lighter devices that consume less energy and offer greater colour saturation. LED technology is also used in mobile display applications that are experiencing strong growth, including mobile phones, notebook computers, tablets, eBooks, and MP3 players. Given the recent advances in the field of high-brightness LEDs for the lighting, electric vehicle, energy, and display application markets, it’s expected that there will continue to be strong demand for gallium. Version 1 17 3. Product Uses and Applications… GLOBAL TV UNIT SALES BY TECHNOLOGY 2004-2014F 300 OLEP PDP LCD (COFL) 250 LCD (LED) CRT RP Million Units 200 150 100 50 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Display Search – Quarterly Advanced Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report Laser Diodes GaN semiconductor material is used in laser diodes in a wide range of domestic, commercial, and industrial applications across several sectors including medical technology, research, telecommunications, and entertainment. Another common application is for the blue-violet lasers used for reading and writing data on DVDs. There are numerous advantages to this technology including a wide range of power capabilities, high energy-efficiency, high reliability, and ease of modulation for various applications. Laser diode sales represent 50 percent of global commercial laser revenues or US$3.6 billion in 2011, up from US$3.3 billion in 2010. Sales have been steady with a 1.8 percent CAGR since 2007. Diode sales for certain applications also track GDP, and in turn, are driven primarily by economic conditions in the United States and China. Since the economic recession in 2008-2009 it has been difficult to forecast sales for this segment. Version 1 18 3. Product Uses and Applications… GLOBAL COMMERCIAL LASER REVENUES 2007-2011E, $B US 2007-2011e CAGR: 0.8% 6.84 3.49 6.54 7.05 2007-2011e CAGR 6.37 3.45 Nondiode -0.2% 3.25 3.60 Diode 1.8% 2010 2011e 5.00 3.27 3.12 2.45 3.35 3.27 2.55 2007 2008 2009 Source: LaserFocusWorld PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) CELLS AND OTHER APPLICATIONS Photovoltaic cells in solar panels use mostly silicon-based semiconductors to generate electricity. Growth in demand for this type of renewable energy has been stimulated by high energy prices and government subsidies in North America and Europe. The solar panel market is dominated by crystalline silicon solar cells, which make up 90 percent of the market. But recently, copper indium gallium (di) selenide (CIGS), of which gallium is a key component, has made inroads as a viable alternative to crystalline silicon, along with other substrates such as cadmium telluride. CIGS products have several advantages. They are lighter, more flexible, require less energy to make, and have lower production costs than alternative solutions. GaN technology is being used more frequently in power electronics, power management solutions, and radiofrequency electronics. This technology has advanced significantly due to use in military and defense applications, as well as in the automotive, medical, and industrial sectors. In fact, power electronics associated with electric cars may represent a significant growth opportunity. GaN is also used in fuel cells to convert chemical energy into electricity through chemical reactions. Fuel cells are used: in space programs to fuel probes and satellites; for back-up power in commercial and industrial contexts; and in fuel cell vehicles (buses, airplanes, boats, and submarines). Consequently, gallium has been indicated as a strategic metal for use in such applications by countries such as the United States. Other applications of gallium, which represent less than 1 percent of current consumption, include use in medical equipment such as medical imaging, low-melting point alloys in fuses for electrical devices, and dental fillings. Version 1 19 4. ORBITE ALUMINAE: WELL POSITIONED TO BECOME A STRATEGIC LOW-COST GALLIUM SUPPLIER Orbite’s principal product is alumina, and the Company has developed a unique proprietary alumina production process based on hydrochloric acid leaching of aluminous clay that is more efficient than traditional processes. In this non-polluting chemical process, the hydrochloric acid is regenerated and most of the input material is transformed into marketable products. Compared to the traditional Bayer process, Orbite’s technology is more cost-efficient and produces higher qualities of alumina in less time. Additionally, it does not generate the toxic waste (“red mud”) that plagues the Bayer process. While testing this process on aluminous clay, Orbite found that it also allowed for the recovery of silica, hematite, iron ferric oxide, magnesium, gallium, and at least 11 rare earth elements for commercialization. ORBITE’S UNIQUE BY-PRODUCT RECOVERY PROCESS Orbite has developed an operational extraction technology and a separation process for rare earth oxides and metals, including gallium, from aluminous clays and other aluminous ores. Gallium is recovered as a byproduct in the hydrochloric acid recovery step of Orbite’s process. The process calls first for the leaching of the aluminous clay with hydrochloric acid, dissolving most metals in the clay as chlorides. Aluminum chloride is then removed from the solution by precipitating it as aluminum chloride hexahydrate and then calcinating it into aluminum oxide. Ferric oxide is then removed in a process that also regenerates the hydrochloric acid for reuse in the leaching stage. What is left is a solution with a high concentration of magnesium, gallium, alkalis, and rare earths oxides in the form of chlorides. Magnesium and alkalis are recovered by precipitation, then gallium and rare earths and metals are recovered. The recovery rate is impacted by the choice of solvents and the sequence in which these elements are recovered. Recent tests by an independent third party mandated by Orbite demonstrated that recovery rates for rare metals and earths will be 90 percent, and in some cases as high as 93 percent. The Orbite process concentrates elements such as gallium in the solution as part of the hydrochloric acid loop and facilitates their separation from other rare earths at an earlier stage in the process than in traditional techniques. As a result, the process is faster and more economical for the production of gallium and other commercial by-products than traditional methods. Consequently, revenue from the sale of these by-products could offset almost 30 percent of Orbite’s total production costs. Finally, it is important to note that the Orbite process can be used with a wide range of clays, as well as with bauxite. In fact, it can also be used on existing red mud, which contains a concentration of gallium and rare metals, rendering the toxic waste environmentally neutral while extracting commercially valuable products. Version 1 20 4. Orbite Aluminae Positioning in the Gallium Market… ORBITE’S PATENTED PROCESS Aluminous clay Clay preparation crushing & grinding HCl HCl Acid leaching Filter silica Metal-rich liquor Al, Fe, etc. HCl HCl Precipitation AI CI 3 6H20 AI CI 3 6H20 Iron-rich liquor Al, Fe, etc. HCl Hydrothermal acid regeneration Calcination Precipitation AI203 HPA plant Ferric oxide Rare metals processing e.g. REE, gallium, Source: Jacob Securities Equity Research, company documents, SMS PRODUCTION ESTIMATES In tests conducted in its commercial-scale pilot plant, Orbite has achieved recovery rates of >90 percent for gallium. Such a recovery rate would allow Orbite to obtain more than 90 mt a year of gallium from the SGA plant it is planning to build 11. This estimate may change, as the project is still in its early stages, however with its production capacity expected to be 100 mt per year with a single plant, Orbite expects to become one of the largest and lowest-cost gallium producers worldwide, enabling production of many new gallium-based products. While gallium extracted using the traditional Bayer process generally produces gallium of 4N quality, (99.99% purity), the Orbite process minimizes the contaminants in the by-product material from which gallium is extracted, and is expected to result in gallium with greater than 4N purity. For ≥4N purity gallium, prices vary widely. However, based on an average price of between US $460/kg and US $600/kg 12, Orbite could generate annual revenues of US $40 million to US $55 million with this rate of production of gallium. Assuming clay feed throughput of 2.4 million tonnes per year (tpy) or 6,960 tonnes per day (tpd) at the SGA plant for an average SGA production of 540,000 tonnes. The SGA plant is expected to commence operations in 2014. 12 US$460/kg is the average price for 4N quality YTD January – July 2012 and US$600/kg is the current spot price as of November 2011 according to Roche-Génivar’s Preliminary Economic Assessment. 11 Version 1 21 4. Orbite Aluminae Positioning in the Gallium Market… CAPITAL AND OPERATING COSTS Orbite’s gallium production cost is expected to be significantly lower than that of traditional gallium producers. Gallium is a by-product of alumina production and Orbite’s alumina production costs are anticipated to be below the fifth percentile. Moreover, the revenue from gallium sales has the potential to cover approximately 30 percent of Orbite’s total production costs, thereby further strengthening the company’s position as a low-cost producer. Consequently, as a low-cost producer, Orbite will be able to absorb the large price fluctuations that have characterized gallium markets. Orbite also has the advantage of being located close to North American and European markets. As global gallium production, like the rare earth market, is increasingly dominated by China, Western buyers will be able to turn to Orbite for consistent volume, value, and quality products. This strategic position will allow the company to gain marketshare as a gallium producer, especially as demand continues to grow for use in consumer electronics applications. ORBITE’S CAPACITY TO BECOME A STRATEGIC PLAYER IN THE GALLIUM MARKET The gallium market is currently dominated by Chinese production and major industrial users outside of China are concerned about their dependence on a single country’s supply for their gallium. As demand continues to grow for highly specific applications such as integrated circuits – driven by increased consumption of end uses like smartphones and tablet PCs – supply will become tighter, and manufacturers in strategic industries (i.e. electronics, automotive, aerospace, and defense) will seek out other reliable suppliers of gallium. With a projected production capacity close to 100 mt per year, Orbite is well positioned to become a major global supplier of gallium and a low-cost producer of high-purity (4N) crude gallium. Its strategic geographic location should make it an ideal supplier for European and American markets, and will provide clients an opportunity to diversify their sourcing as well as to develop new applications aimed at a greater number of end markets. Version 1 22 5. CONCLUSION Gallium is a key component in semiconductors, which are used in a vast array of electronic devices that are experiencing significant growth. Its unique characteristics make it irreplaceable in a variety of specialized uses, in particular for integrated circuits, which represent 69 percent of demand for gallium in the United States. The United States imports 100 percent of its crude gallium, and is one of the largest consumer markets for gallium besides China. China is the largest producer of crude gallium with approximately 140 tonnes of installed capacity (over 50 percent of current global production), and with significant capacity expansion plans in place. • Orbite, a Quebec-based company, expects to become the only North American producer of crude gallium, and gallium will be a key by-product of Orbite’s smelter-grade alumina (SGA) production. • Orbite’s unique process allows for the efficient production of high-quality gallium more quickly and economically than traditional processes, and with none of the hazardous waste. Orbite is expected to be a low-cost producer of gallium with a projected annual production of ~90 mt per year once the SGA plant is operational in 2014. • Revenue from gallium and other rare earths and metals should offset total production costs by up to 30 percent, thereby strengthening Orbite’s position as a low-cost producer. While Orbite will offer many advantages to its customers, its capacity to provide a continuous supply of high-quality gallium (≥4N) and ability to diversify and expand supply sources are among the most important. Orbite is expected to become one of the top crude gallium suppliers in the world, setting new standards for the industry in terms of process efficiency, cost reduction, and environmental responsibility, while offering its clients a diversified and secure supply, as well as consistent, high quality at competitive prices. Version 1 23 ADDITIONAL INFORMATION Orbite Aluminae Initiating Coverage, prepared by Jacob Securities Equity Research (November 23, 2011) Orbite NI 43-101 Revised Technical Report, prepared by Roche and Genivar (May 30, 2012) Les matières premières minerals: Le gallium, prepared by www.mineralinfo.org (December 2011) U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries: Gallium, prepared by Brian W. Jaskula (January 2012 and 2010) U.S. Geological Survey, Gallium Statistics and Information, prepared by Brian W. Jaskula. (2000 to 2012) Version 1 24 ABOUT… ABOUT ORBITE Orbite Aluminae Inc. is a high-tech Canadian company whose unique technologies could have a significant impact on the aluminum industry. These technologies allow for the environmentally sustainable extraction of smelter grade alumina, high-purity alumina and high-value elements—including rare earths—from locally sourced aluminous clay. Orbite has exclusive mining rights on its 6,441-hectare Grande-Vallée property, the site of an aluminous clay deposit 32 km northeast of Murdochville, and a 28,000 sq. ft. high-purity alumina production facility in CapChat, both in the Gaspé region. The Revised Preliminary Economic Assessment on Orbite Aluminae – Metallurgical Grade Alumina Project dated May 30, 2012 and effective as of November 24, 2011 and the amended and restated 2010 Field Work Grande-Vallée Property NI 43-101 Technical Report dated August 21, 2011, which are available on Sedar (www.sedar.com), identified an indicated resource of 1 billion tonnes of aluminous clay in part of the deposit, thus representing a half-century of the total current Canadian alumina imported. The higher-quality smelter grade alumina—containing less iron and silicon impurities— produced using Orbite’s process has been independently utilized by internationally renowned facilities such as INRS and SINTEF to produce high-quality aluminum. The Company also owns the intellectual property rights to a unique Canada and US patented process for extracting alumina from aluminous ores and for which other international patents are also pending. Orbite plans to offer smelter grade alumina (SGA) and high-purity alumina (HPA) and license its technologies to well-qualified producers aiming to reduce their costs and environmental footprint. www.orbitealuminae.com ABOUT SECOR SECOR is the largest independent strategy and organizational consulting firm in Canada. It has helped top management teams plan and implement their corporate strategies. SECOR relies on over 150 professionals and has offices in Montréal, New York, Paris, Quebec City, Toronto and Vancouver. For over 35 years SECOR has been helping businesses succeed. Its clients include leading national and global companies as well as medium-sized organizations, governments, departments and agencies. In this time, the firm has developed methodologies and insights based on its experience with the most innovative and successful corporations. As architects of strategy and transformation, we make strategy happen. We operate according to an alternative model for success in consulting based on customer intimacy. We offer personalized and collaborative support to senior executives who want to dramatically improve performance. www.secorgroup.com Version 1 25
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