Movie Reviews
WALL•E
Real Estate Page S-8,
Page S-2
CLASSIFIED
S-6, S-7
Middlesex East
MIDDLESEX EAST appearing in Daily Times – Chronicle (Reading, Woburn, Winchester, Burlington, Wakefield),
Lynnfield Villager, No. Reading Transcript, Wilmington & Tewksbury Town Crier, Stoneham Independent
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY JULY 2, 3 2008-PAGE S-1
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David Paleologos
From local surveys
to national politics
By DOUG WOOD-BOYLE
A simple can we do this…
question has led to the formation of what is now a nationally
political
research
ranked
department at Boston’s Suffolk
University and it is being led by
Woburn native and Lynnfield
resident David Paleologos.
In 2002, after seven years of
teaching his elective course at
Suffolk and at Emerson,
Paleologos was about to call the
whole thing off. However, during the last class at Suffolk, the
topic was what would happen if
then Acting Governor Jane
Swift was to run against a
Democrat for a full term.
As Paleologos recalled, “One
of the students asked ‘What
about Mitt Romney against
Swift in a Republican primary’”
It was decided to attach the
question to the main survey. “It
was the best decision we ever
made,” Paleologos said.
However, because the class
was so small the survey was
never completed. At the end of
weekend,
Paleologos
the
brought his report to Agnes
Bain, who was his department
head and she asked that the
survey be completed with the
questions that were in it.
Paleologos broke from his
protocol at that point and
brought in professionals to do
the survey and compile the
findings. Normally this would
have all been done as part of
the 14-week course.
The findings, released on a
Wednesday, showed that Swift
would
lose
the
race.
Coincidentally, the Boston herald released a similar poll with
the same findings on the following Friday.
Paleologos added, “The following
Monday,
Swift
announced that she would not
run for Governor.”
He does not credit the findings of the Suffolk poll with
having anything to do with that
decision. However, because the
findings were on the mark
some things began to happen
behind the scenes at Suffolk.
According to Paleologos,
WHDH-TV (Channel 7) did not
have a polling partner at the
time. About two months after
the Swift survey results came
out; he was called in to Suffolk
for a meeting and found he was
meeting with Channel Seven’s
political editor Andy Hiller.
reported
told
Hiller
Paleologos “This would make a
great partnership.”
At that point Paleologos’
dream came true and Suffolk
started a permanent research
center. Although he still teaches a course, which since its
inception has been popular,
Paleologos noted that all of the
work done for WHDH is outsourced because of the shorttime factors involved.
Since that time the Suffolk
University Public Research
Center has found itself close to
the top in rankings of various
national polling groups. These
include professionals such as
CBS News, Fox News, the Zogby
and the Gallup Polls as well as
other colleges and university’s
such as Quinnipiac University,
University of New Hampshire
and Franklin Pierce University
(In the Survey USA 2008
Pollster Report Card on the
Hampshire
Primary
New
Suffolk ranked sixth, above all
of the organizations named
above.)
Most recently, Paleologos
and the Research Center have
helped WHDH to report on the
chances of reelection if United
States Senator John Kerry of
Massachusetts faces a strong
political opponent. That poll
shows that Kerry could be beat.
In a press release it is stated: “If John Kerry were to face
a strong candidate in running
for re-election this fall, he
might be vulnerable, as 51 percent of general election voters
polled
by
7NEWS/Suffolk
University said it’s time to give
someone else a chance, while
38 percent said the senator
deserves to be reelected. Nine
percent were undecided, and 2
percent refused a response in
the poll released today.”
Ironically, Paleologos was
not trained specifically as a
pollster. It was a trade he
learned by necessity while
working to help keep his brother, former State Representative
Nick
Paleologos
(from
Woburn) in office.
“We couldn’t afford polling,”
David said. “I got into it out of
necessity.”
According to Paleologos, his
poling technique was a big help
to his brother in 1976 when he
first one election to the
Massachusetts
House
of
Representatives.
“It was in that campaign I
learned a lot of the basics,”
Paleologos said.
Probably because he did not
have any prior training,
Paleologos had the ambition to
try something new in polling –
Bellweather
Polls.
He
explained that it is a method
where he uses certain points in
a district (wards cities or portions of a region) that always
seems to be correct to corroborate what the whole poll is
A nationally ranked political research department has
been developed at Boston’s Suffolk University and it is being
led by Woburn native and Lynnfield resident David Paleologos.
showing.
He has written a historical
paper on the subject which
states in part:
“The “snapshot” polling of
the 1960s -- and 1980s -- was
always the accepted instrument
of measurement – one poll, one
bell curve, limited timeframe,
with some margin of error at a
95 percent level of confidence.
“Today, the same one-dimensional statistical test is still the
basis for a society driven by -not just annual polls or quarterly polls – but by daily, even
hourly polling data. We have
high-stakes, casino-style prediction markets, 24-hour poll-driven news broadcasts, Internet
and text messaging and, more
importantly, a public addicted
to and driven by the momentum
of polls.
“Yet, the same statistical test
is used today that was used in
1960. Sure, we have automated
calling centers that process and
produce cross-tabulation banners and fancy charts, but the
statistical test is the same.
“The result has been a recur-
Have a
Happy
and Safe
4th of
July!
ring narrative of immense
embarrassment for network
pollsters, including out-and-out
exit polling debacles in the presidential years of 2000 and 2004.
It begs the question: Is there a
better way to predict outcomes
come November when the pressure to declare a state red or
blue will be unbearable?”
Paleologos continues, stating:
“As a young political consultant in the 1980s, I never wanted
to rely on one statistical test for
the health and well-being of my
client – so I used to conduct separate statistical tests that
reflected the outcome probability of that district. That area,
called a bellwether, could be a
ward, a precinct, an election district, a county or something
else.
“I felt that the added bellwether tests, when joined with
the statewide poll, gave me a
kind of three-dimensional platform to predict an outcome, like
the Doppler radar system.
“After I began directing
Suffolk University’s Political
Research Center in 2002, I
found enthusiastic support
from our media partner, (NBC
affiliate) WHDH-TV Channel
7NEWS NEW ENGLAND and
its veteran political reporter
Andy Hiller, who used our bellwether tests to correctly call
various outcomes before any of
their competitors – a first in the
nation.
“Not only were bellwethers
successful in 2006, thus far they
have predicted the correct outcomes in 95 percent of the
Democratic and Republican
Primaries in 2008.
“And, in the eight cases
where the bellwether tests and
the statewide polling have
agreed on a winning candidate,
the combined tests have been
100 percent accurate.”
Paleologos concludes his
statement by noting;
“Keep in mind, bellwether
tests have limitations: First,
they are designed only to predict outcomes – not margins of
victory; second, they may not
reflect the exact proportions of
statewide demographics; third,
current and historical variables
such as local referenda on that
area’s ballot at one time or disproportionate get-out-the-vote
efforts from other races may
adversely skew an area.
“Still, it’s hard to believe
that 95 percent of the time the
bellwether tests were lucky.
“And, although some of the
correct outcomes were part of
easy, double-digit wins in certain states this year, the bellwethers also were correct in
closer contests, such as New
Hampshire,
the
Florida
Republican Primary and the
Democratic
primaries
in
California, Ohio, Pennsylvania
Paleologos to S-4
PAGE S-4 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY JULY 2, 3 2008
MIDDLESEX EAST appearing in Daily Times – Chronicle (Reading, Woburn, Winchester, Burlington, Wakefield),
Lynnfield Villager, No. Reading Transcript, Wilmington & Tewksbury Town Crier, Stoneham Independent
Paleologos
from S-1
and Indiana, where the immediately preceding statewide
polls had different Democrats
winning outright.
“Come November, the bellwether election predictor module might be one additional
source others might want to
take a look at when calling a
state red or blue.”
Bell weather is a part of the
course he is now teaching his
students. They also learn how
to write a survey, make the
phone calls, compile and tabulate the results and then analyze their findings.
Hopefully, these students
will do a better job of polling
than the people who made little more than educated guesses in the past.
For more information go to
www.suffolk.edu and click onto
Political Research Center
under Services.
Quick fixes for better fuel economy
Who isn’t looking for
better fuel economy?
Hydrogen this, hybrid that.
Diesel here, ethanol there.
Motorists-most of whom own
vehicles with internal combustion engines-are inundated
with information about how to
save money at the pump. But
all these fuel-saving options
fall under a single problem:
They involve purchasing a new
car.
For those folks who can't
afford to trade in their gas
engines for something more
efficient, there are simple
ways to increase those MPGs
that
everyone
desires.
Changing your worn spark
plugs, replacing clogged air
filters and using a fuel additive can all lead to a boost in
fuel efficiency.
Spark Plugs
1.
Under your hood, the performance of a spark plug is
directly related to how much
fuel is being consumed.
Research shows that old, worn
and dirty spark plugs are
prone to misfires, reducing
fuel efficiency as much as 30
percent. When changing spark
plugs, consider upgrading to
ones that provide a faster,
more efficient burn. The
Autolite
XP
Xtreme
Performance(r) spark plugs,
which feature an iridiumenhanced, .6mm finewire
design, ignite more gas and
air mixture inside the cylinders, resulting in improved
throttle response and acceleration.
2.
Air Filter
Another way to improve
the fuel economy in your
existing vehicle is by changing a clogged air filter. The
U.S. Department of Energy
claims that replacing a
clogged air filter can
improve your car's gas
mileage by as much as 10
percent. FRAM(r) air filters
are an effective solution for
the everyday driver. Most
FRAM air filters feature
bright white fibers that make
it easy to spot when a
replacement may be necessary. Research from the
brand
suggests
that
motorists who change their
air filter when clogged save
about $173 in gas annually.
To advertise in the
TEN TOWN PACKAGE
Call Judy at
781 944 2200
SPORTS SHORTS
•MIDDLESEX
EAST
SPORTS WEEKLY TRIVIA
QUESTION: Who was the
first unseeded tennis player
to win Wimbledon and when
did they do it?
Answer appears elsewhere
in this column.
•MICHAELA
HARDY
(READING), a junior midfielder
on
the
13th-ranked
University of New Hampshire
women’s lacrosse team, was
named to the IWLCA/U.S.
Lacrosse All-America Third
Team on Wednesday evening.
She was under consideration
for this honor following last
week’s
selection
to
the
Northeast Region First Team.
Hardy is the 35th UNH
Wildcat to receive All-America
recognition in the 32-year history of the program and the fifth
to do so in the 12-year tenure of
head coach Sandy Bridgeman.
Other recent selections were
Cristina Covucci (2005; Third
Team), current assistant coach
Jess Burnap (2004; Second
Team), Jessie Groszkowski
Fuel Additives
3.
When your vehicle has
intake valve and fuel injector
deposits, it oftentimes requires
more fuel to run. Using a fuel
additive like Prestone(r)
Complete Fuel System Cleaner
every 4,000 miles helps
improve acceleration and fuel
economy by unclogging fuel
injectors and cleaning intake
valves and combustion chambers. Clean fuel injectors help
ensure more complete combustion and maximum fuel
benefit.
Maintaining your vehicle
with good-quality spark plugs
and air filters, in addition to
utilizing a fuel additive, will
increase the fuel economy in
your existing car. The end
result is more money in your
pocket. With gas prices threatening to break the $4 threshold, you'll have no choice but
to pay more at the pump. How
often you need to drive to the
gas station is up to you.
Changing the air filter may
improve your car's mileage.
Improve
your
business
forcast!
Advertise
in the
Middlesex East
Ten Town
section!
Call 781944-2200
(2002; First Team) and Colleen
Christopher (2001; Second
Team).
Hardy led New Hampshire
in goals (52), points (59),
caused turnovers (26) and
shots (128); her 52 goals ranks
eighth on the program’s list of
single-season
superlatives.
With those numbers, Hardy is
ranked 30th in the nation in
goals per game (2.74). In
America East conference
games, she was the leader in
both goals per game (3.67) and
caused turnovers per game
(1.50).
Hardy ended the season
with a 16-game goal-scoring
streak and she scored a goal in
18 of 19 games this year with 13
multiple-goal efforts. She
scored a career-high seven
goals April 5 at Stony Brook
University and matched that
personal best of seven points
with a five-goal, two-assist
effort April 20 vs. the
University of Oregon in which
she scored the game-winning
goal in double overtime.
Hardy’s other 2008 accolades
included
Womenslacrosse.com
AllAmerica
Second
Team,
America East All-Conference
First Team and America East
Defensive Player of the Week
(twice).
The IWLCA and U.S.
Lacrosse will honor the
National All-Americans at an
awards banquet June 14 in
King of Prussia, Pa.
UNH (13-6) received an atlarge bid to the NCAA
Tournament and recorded the
second-highest single-season
win total in the program’s history. The Wildcats, who defeated a pair of top-10 teams on the
road, were ranked in each of
the last six IWLCA polls and
climbed as high as No. 13 –
their highest ranking since
1992.
•KRISTEN
MAHONEY,
MELISSA HANAFIN AND
JACQUI RILEY were three
key
members
of
the
BURLINGTON HIGH SOFTBALL TEAM that won a
Middlesex League championship in 2002.
All three went on to enjoy
successful college careers,
Hanafin and Mahoney as teammates, and now, the trio is pursuing teaching jobs locally as
well.
On July 21, the former Red
Devils standouts will begin
another chapter in their athletic careers when they host their
first annual Next Level Softball
Clinic at Burlington’s TRW
Field on the corner of Mall
Road and Stoney Brook Road.
VIKKI
GUIDO
OF
WINCHESTER, who graduated from WHS in 2003 before
joining Mahoney and Hanafin
at
the
University
of
Massachusetts at Lowell, is
also an instructor at the clinic.
The four-day clinic will be
for girls in grades eight
through 12 and will run
Monday through Thursday
from 9 a.m. to 2:30 p.m. Cost of
the clinic is $180.
•Need some help with this
week’s question? The year
was 1985.
•BRIAN FERRARO OF
READING is training to Swim
Across America. On July 11,
he’ll dive into Boston Harbor
for a 22-mile relay swim around
the Boston Harbor Islands to
support pediatric cancer survivor programs at Dana-Farber
Cancer Institute.
Ferraro has joined the
effort, not to honor someone
battling cancer, but to recognize Dana-Farber for its ability
to offer hope and inspiration to
patients and families. This past
March, Ferraro and his wife
Michelle dealt with tragedy as
they lost twins at birth.
“My wife and I live everyday
with our twin angels in our
hearts and minds. Their memory and spirit provide me with
the focus and dedication to
jump in the pool and train hard,
and the determination to be a
better person, a more devoted
husband, and hopefully, one
day, a loving father,” says
Ferraro. “We certainly understand the fear and pain that
can be caused from loss of any
kind.”
Ferraro will be swimming
alongside other casual and
competitive swimmers, as well
as former Olympians Jenny
Thompson, Craig Beardsley,
Carlton
Bruner,
Eric
Wunderlich, Glenn Mills and
1988 Silver Olympic Silver
Medalist Janel Jorgensen, who
is also the Executive Director
of the program.
“Olympic summers are
always fun for swimmers as
there is a lot of enthusiasm for
the sport, so while elite swimmers prepare for Beijing, Swim
Across America adds to the
excitement by giving everyday
swimmers a chance to mingle
and
swim
with
former
Olympians while also raising
valuable funds for the fight
against
cancer,”
says
Jorgensen.
Swim Across America is a
non-profit corporation that runs
events from Boston to San
Francisco to support cancer
research at the country’s
finest hospitals and institutions.
Proceeds from the
Boston-area swims go directly
to the David B. Perini, Jr.
Quality of Life Program at
Dana-Farber, where experts
help pediatric cancer survivors with an array of issues,
including long-term effects of
treatment, social and psychological concerns and the risk
of second cancers.
•READING”S JOHN
DOUGLASS will be once
again participating in the 2008
Cape Cod Getaway to help
raise money to fight MS. This
is a two day ride from Boston
to Provincetown (App. 160
miles) on Saturday and
Sunday June 28 and 29th. He
riding with a team of six
under the name of Silva
Brothers. According to John,
“The ride is especially meaning to us as one of the riders
has MS and the other has a
spouse with MS. Last year our
team raised close to four thousand dollars. We hope to pass
that his year with all your
help. I know many of you
helped me in the past and I am
counting on all of you again. I
know we all get hit up for
fundraising and if you are not
able to help financially than
you’re your moral support is
greatly appreciated. The six
of us are training hard to help
fight this devastating disease,
won’t you helps us reach our
goal? All donations are 100
percent tax deductible and
checks should be made out to
the National MS Society and
mailed to John Douglass 46
Bainbridge Rd. Reading, MA
01867. I thank you all for your
support.”
•ANSWER
TO THIS
WEEK’S TRIVIA QUESTION: Boris Becker was the
first unseeded player to win
Wimbledon, accomplishing
the feat in 1985 at the age of
17.
•DO YOU KNOW
SOMETHING WE DON’T?
If you have information
about a local athlete that
you would like to see appear
in this column, please email
it
to
[email protected], or mail it
to: Paul Feely, Middlesex
East Sports. P.O. Box 240,
Reading, Ma., 01867, or call
Paul at 781-944-2200.