1. home and garden

Name_________________
Springing Forward: Does climate change cause plants to flower earlier?
Featured scientists: Shaun Davis, Mark Hammond, Elizabeth Schultheis,
and Jen Lau from Michigan State University
Research Background:
Scientists agree, as we add more greenhouse gasses to our atmosphere through the burning of
fossil fuels, the Earth is heating up! What does that mean for the species on our planet? The
timing of life cycle events for plant and animals, like flowering and migration, are largely
determined by cues organisms take from the environment around them. Scientists who study
phenology, or the timing of life cycle events, are interested in how climate change will influence
different species. For example, with warming temperatures and unpredictable transitions
between seasons, what can we expect to happen to the migration timing of birds, the mating
season for animals, or the flowering times in plants?
Plants are the foundation of all life on Earth, producing O2 that we breathe, food for animals and
microbes, and crops that produce food and materials for human society. Because plants are so
important, we need to find out how climate change will affect them. One good place to start is by
looking at flowering plants. How will increased temperatures affect the phenology of flowering? If
the date that flowers first emerge for a species is driven by temperature, we would expect
flowers to emerge earlier when temperatures are higher. If flowers start emerging earlier each
year due to climate change, this could be important for plant reproduction and could cause
problems for pollinators who count on plants flowering at the same times each year.
To see whether increased
temperatures lead to earlier flowering
dates for plants, scientists grew
Hesperis matronalis (dame’s rocket)
in an experiment with eight plots. Half
of the plots were left to experience
normal temperatures (ambient), while
the other four received a heating
treatment to simulate climate change
(heated). Air temperatures in these
plots increased by 3°C, which mimics
climate change projections for what
Michigan will experience by the end
of the century. The scientists
predicted that dame’s rocket growing
in the heated plots would flower
earlier than those in the ambient
temperature plots.
Scientists collecting phenology data in the climate change
experiment. They are recording the date that the first flowers
emerge for dame’s rocket.
Data Nuggets developed by Michigan State University fellows in the NSF BEACON and GK-12 programs
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Name_________________
An aerial view showing one of the heated plots.
The silver boxes are electric ceramic heaters,
raising the temperature inside the ring.
Flowers of Hesperis matronalis (dame’s rocket),
a species of mustard that was introduced to the
U.S. from Eurasia.
Scientific Question: Does increased temperature alter the phenology of dame’s rocket,
causing it to bloom earlier in the year?
What is the hypothesis? Find the hypothesis in the Research Background and underline
it. A hypothesis is a proposed explanation for an observation, which can then be tested
with experimentation or other types of studies.
Scientific Data:
Use the data below to answer the scientific question:
average # of days
# of plants
calendar date when until first flower (since standard
start of experiment)
Treatment surviving to flower first flower appeared
error (SE)
Ambient
28
May 20, 2013
16.11
0.66
Heated
25
May 10, 2013
6.08
1.65
What data will you graph to answer the question?
Predictor variable:
Response variable:
Data Nuggets developed by Michigan State University fellows in the NSF BEACON and GK-12 programs
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Name_________________
Below is a graph of the data:
18
average # of days
until first flower
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Ambient
Heated
Treatment
Interpret the data: Based on this evidence, write a statement that helps answer the
scientific question. Connect the pattern in the data to a pattern in the natural world.
Justify your reasoning using data.
Data Nuggets developed by Michigan State University fellows in the NSF BEACON and GK-12 programs
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Name_________________
Your next step as a scientist: Science is an ongoing process. Did this study fully answer
your original question? What new questions do you think should be investigated? What
future data should be collected to answer them?
Data Nuggets developed by Michigan State University fellows in the NSF BEACON and GK-12 programs
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