Equity Research
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
MORNING HIGHLIGHT
Key Index
FROM RESEARCH
Close
Weekly Report: Crucial Week Ahead (OVERWEIGHT)
Another positive trade surplus recorded in Feb of USD740m might bring
slight relief on the recent lingering IDR weakness, especially given its
implication to overall CAD. However, both import and export were equally
weak, a situation which would not be ideal to ignite any currency
appreciation. We would expect bolder measure and direction from the
government to restore IDR stabilization. Weak currency has led to an
outflow situation, which end the straight 7 weeks of inflow. We believe
large cap banks will would be the safest bet at this stage.
Chg
Ytd
Vol
(%)
(%)
(US$ m)
Asean - 5
Indonesia
5,435
0.2
4.0
310
Thailand
1,516
(1.7)
1.2
1,366
Philippines
7,731
(1.0)
6.9
166
Malaysia
1,781
(0.1)
1.1
493
Singapore
3,376
0.4
0.3
650
59,886
Regional
China
3,449
2.3
6.6
Hong Kong
23,950
0.5
1.5
9,499
Wijaya Karya: JO profits counter higher interests
Japan
19,246
(0.0)
10.3
12,577
(WIKA IJ. Rp 3,400. BUY. TP Rp 4,000)
Korea
1,999
0.6
4.3
3,850
WIKA is the last state-contractor to publish its FY14 results. Overall, the
numbers were inline with the company’s revised guidance, our
expectations, and the market consensus. Being the state-contractor with
the biggest order book, WIKA could only grow its order book by 8% in FY14
on the back of lower government projects throughout the year. As a result,
its FY14 revenues grew a soft 5% to Rp12.5tn. Profitability was well
maintained, however, with the gross margin at around FY13’s level.
Notably, the solid 42% growth in JO profits to Rp370bn and higher interest
income helped the company to counter higher interest expenses. At the
bottom line, WIKA booked Rp615bn of net profits in FY14, up 8%. Maintain
BUY.
Taiwan
9,513
(0.7)
2.2
2,565
28,438
(0.2)
3.4
515
4,930
1.2
4.1
66,924
17,977
1.3
0.9
7,450
India
NASDAQ
Dow Jones
Currency and Interest Rate
w-w
m-m
ytd
(%)
(%)
(%)
13,245
(1.5)
(3.9)
(6.9)
6.67
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.6)
7.47
(0.2)
0.1
(0.3)
Rate
Rupiah
(Rp/1US$)
SBI rate
(%)
10-y Govt Indo bond
Hard Commodities
MARKET NEWS
Unit
Price
d-d
m-m
ytd
(%)
(%)
(%)
*Analysts’ comment inside
Coal
US$/ton
62
n/a
(0.6)
(27.0)






Gold
US$/toz
1,156
0.1
(4.4)
(2.4)
Nickel
US$/mt.ton
13,871
(1.5)
(4.6)
(8.0)
Tin
US$/mt.ton
17,503
1.4
(3.3)
(9.9)
ACST FY14 Result: Below company guidance
Bumi Serpong Damai – FY14 Result
Dividends Rp4.97 Trillion: Bank Mandiri will enlarge retail loans (ID)
KLBF Factory to Groundbreaking in 2nd Half (BI)
Govt Unveil Policy Package to Aid Rupiah (TJP)
Rely on Regasification: PGAS Targeting 10% Growth (BI)
Soft Commodities
Unit
Price
d-d
m-m
ytd
(%)
(%)
(%)
Cocoa
US$/mt.ton
2,868
(0.6)
(4.2)
0.3
IDX ANNOUNCEMENT
Corn
US$/mt.ton
141
(0.3)
(2.4)
(11.6)
Crude Oil
US$/barrel
Corp Action
Palm oil
MYR/mt.ton
Rubber
Pulp
Code
Action
Date
Time (WIB)
54
(1.9)
(12.1)
(5.9)
2,243
(0.2)
(1.7)
(12.8)
USd/kg
143
(0.2)
(0.3)
(6.1)
US$/tonne
885
n/a
(1.9)
(2.3)
PTBA
AGM
30-Mar-15
10.00
Coffee
US$/60kgbag
136
0.8
(2.1)
39.1
PGAS
AGM
06-Apr-15
14.00
Sugar
US$/MT
368
1.5
(5.9)
(5.9)
TLKM
AGM
17-Apr-15
13.30
Wheat
US$/mt.ton
189
2.4
(2.9)
(13.5)
Source: KSEI
Source: Bloomberg
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research
Equity Research
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
PT Danareksa Sekuritas
Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No. 14
Jakarta 10110
Indonesia
Tel
(62 21) 350 9777, 350 9888
Fax
(62 21) 350 1709
Equity Research Team
Agriculture
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Auto Component
Banking
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Coal
Construction
Consumer
Heavy Equipment
Media
Metal Mining
Pharmaceutical
Property
Retail
Strategy
Telecommunication
Transportation
Utilities
Research Associate
Helmy Kristanto
Helmy Kristanto
Joko Sogie
Eka Savitri
Helmy Kristanto
Stefanus Darmagiri
Joko Sogie
Jennifer Frederika Yapply
Stefanus Darmagiri
Lucky Ariesandi, CFA
Stefanus Darmagiri
Armando Marulitua
Anindya Saraswati
Anindya Saraswati
Helmy Kristanto
Lucky Ariesandi, CFA
Joko Sogie
Lucky Ariesandi, CFA
Puti Adani
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Tuesday, 17 March 2015
OVERWEIGHT
Foreign Fund Flows
2015 Ytd Regional Performance
Weekly Report
Crucial week ahead
Another positive trade surplus recorded in Feb of USD740m might bring slight relief on the
recent lingering IDR weakness, especially given its implication to overall CAD. However, both
import and export were equally weak, a situation which would not be ideal to ignite any
currency appreciation. We would expect bolder measure and direction from the government to
restore IDR stabilization. Weak currency has led to an outflow situation, which end the straight
7 weeks of inflow. We believe large cap banks will would be the safest bet at this stage.
Trade surplus situation lingered in Feb
Indonesia trade data continues to run on the green zone with another USD740m booked in
February, slightly lower than surplus of USD750m in January. Surplus in Feb mainly driven by
greater decline on import activity than export, while on the latter, there still no improvement on
its activity. Import in February fell 8.42% m-m and 16.2% y-y to USD11.5b, mainly driven by
substantial 50.3% y-y (18.7 m-m) drop on oil and gas importation to only USD1.72b. Not only that
oil price has been drifted lower, we also believe that with less disparity to international price, it
will also discourage any intention on smuggling, which resulted in a more real domestic
consumption. What’s is more concerning would be the importation of machinery as well as
mechanical and electrical tools, which also exhibit weakness in 2M15, down 13-19% y-y. This
weakness would suggest that the recent slowdown on the economy has not met the end, and
there would be much effort from the government to ignite the growth acceleration.
On the export side, situation was still relatively lethargic, especially with continued softness in
most commodity prices. Export fell further in February to USD12.29b, down 8.0% m-m and 16.0%
y-y, mainly dragged by further weakness on both CPO and coal export. So far this year, main
support for export out of Indonesia would be; jewelry, which up 52% y-y in 2M15; auto and spare
part (13.6%), shoes (14.1%) and iron & steel (up 36% y-y). In our view, this situation continue to
highlight the importance of Indonesia to move away from commodity export driven economy
which is susceptible to any great volatility on commodity price.
2015 Ytd Sectoral Performance
Helmy Kristanto
(62-21) 2955 5824
[email protected]
Armando Marulitua
(62-21) 2955 5817
[email protected]
Danareksa research reports are also
available at Reuters Multex and First
Call Direct and Bloomberg.
Measure to help ailing IDR is greatly needed
While positive surplus would bring slight relief on the recent lingering IDR weakness, especially
given its implication to overall CAD, it might not necessarily lead to an instant boost of the
currency, in our view. As highlighted above, both import and export were equally weak, a situation
which would not be ideal to ignite any currency appreciation. Recently, the government has come
out with several plan to support IDR which include, among others, tax allowance for export
oriented companies, tax incentive for dividend repatriation, as well as increase biofuel to further
reduce oil importation (more details on exh. 17) While these initiatives will improve LT
fundamental of the IDR, it is, however, lacking of ST impact, in our view. We believe the
government will need to introduce more bold measure, especially given ample forex reserve. The
market is eagerly waiting for the next Fed meeting this week to seek greater clarity on the
direction and timing on potential rate increase. In our view, the current currency weakening is not
unique to Indonesia and, furthermore, not a true reflection of Indonesia’s improving macro
conditions marked by: the deflation trend, interest rate cut, and stronger fiscal position which will
support increased spending on infrastructure and, ultimately, a brisker economic growth pace.
We don’t believe that the current weak IDR implies deterioration in Indonesia’s economic
fundamentals, although its reliance to commodity export may put a risk. With hikes in Fed rates on
the cards, the USD will strengthen across all currencies. This may go some way to explaining BI’s
reluctance to intervene heavily in the market and deplete “precious” forex reserves given the
ineffectiveness of such a move.
Weak currency led to outflow and market correction
As feared, continued IDR weakness triggered a reversal of inflow earlier. During last week trading,
foreign outflow were recorded on every single trading day, totaling IDR2.4tn, which cut short the
straight 7 weeks of foreign inflow trend. JCI were down 1.6%, with YTD return of 3.8%, a negative
return when compared to IDR weakening of nearly 7%. Basic industry and property was the
weakest performer, mainly due to poor performance of INTP and SMCB given their falling market
share and ASRI on its huge dollar exposure. On the other hand, the government finally decide to
delay the enactment of 10% VAT on toll road from 1 April target given its potential impact to
inflation, which continue to become the government center of attention. While IDR weakening will
continue to reduce confidence, investor may find a shelter on large cap companies which solid
business operation. We believe large cap banks will would be the safest bet as it is the beneficiary
of further cut on interest rate as well as relatively immune from IDR weakening given its broadly
domestic operation.
17 March 2015
Weekly Report
Exhibit 1. Regional weekly performance
Exhibit 2. Regional Ytd 2015 performance
Source: Bloomberg, as of 13 Mar 2015
Source: Bloomberg, as of 13 Mar 2015
Exhibit 3. Sector weekly performance
Exhibit 4. Sector Ytd 2015 performance
Source: Bloomberg, as of 13 Mar 2015
Source: Bloomberg, as of 13 Mar 2015
Exhibit 5. Average daily transactions
Exhibit 6. Foreign fund flows
Source: IDX, as of 13 Mar 2015
Source: IDX, as of 13 Mar 2015
2
17 March 2015
Weekly Report
Exhibit 7. Regional market valuations
2015F
2016F
Philippines
19.7
17.4
Malaysia
16.2
15.0
NKY
20.8
18.2
Singapore
13.8
12.6
JCI
16.0
13.6
Dow Jones
16.5
14.9
Sensex
18.7
15.8
Thailand
15.0
13.1
FTSE
14.7
13.0
Hongkong
11.3
10.2
China
13.2
11.5
Taiwan
13.4
12.4
Average
15.4
13.7
Exhibit 8. JCI Valuation
Source: Bloomberg, as of 13 Mar 2015
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 13 Mar 2015
Exhibit 9. USD/IDR performance
Exhibit 10. CDS - 5 years
Source: Bloomberg, as of 13 Mar 2015
Source: Bloomberg, as of 13 Mar 2015
Exhibit 11. Danareksa bonds yield index
Exhibit 12. Country risk premium
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 13 Mar 2015
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 13 Mar 2015
3
17 March 2015
Weekly Report
Exhibit 13. Winners within our coverage
Exhibit 14. Losers within our coverage
Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 13 Mar 2015
Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 13 Mar 2015
Exhibit 15. Winners within our coverage (Weekly)
Exhibit 16. Losers within our coverage (Weekly)
Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 13 Mar 2015
Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 13 Mar 2015
Exhibit 17. Government policy package to aid rupiah
1 Fiscal incentives in the form of tax allowance for foreign companies that reinvest their earnings in Indonesia and local
companies that export at least 30% of their total production, as well as tax breaks for companies that invest in research
and development and those in shipping and railway industries.
2 Import duties and temporary anti-dumping measures to protect local industries.
3 Visa waivers for nationals of 30 countries.
4 Increase in mandatory biodiesel mix from currently 10% to 15% in diesel.
5 Requirement for commodity exporters to file L/C to the government to improve monitoring of Indonesia's foreign
exchange exports.
6 Merger of domestic state-run insurance firms.
4
17 March 2015
Weekly Report
Exhibit 18. Foreign reserves vs USD/IDR exchange rate
Source: Various publications
Exhibit 19. FY14 Results
Revenue (Rp bn)
Actual
TINS
ANTM
7,371
Result
Estimate (FY14) YoY Growth (%)
Net Profit (Rp bn)
A/F
Actual
Result
Estimate (FY14) YoY Growth (%)
A/F
6,068
26
121.5
TINS
638
464
10
137.5
9,421
7,927
(17)
118.8
ADHI
324
268
(20)
120.9
BMRI (NII)
39,132
36,247
16
108.0
WSKT
502
420
36
119.5
BBNI (NII)
22,376
20,959
17
106.8
INCO
2,044
1,842
402
111.0
AALI
16,306
15,439
29
105.6
WTON
329
300
35
109.7
SMGR
26,987
25,561
10
105.6
BBNI
10,783
9,942
19
108.5
BTPN (NII)
7,041
6,687
(0)
105.3
BBTN
1,116
1,075
(29)
103.8
BBCA (NII)
32,049
30,493
21
105.1
BTPN
1,869
1,830
(12)
102.1
BBRI (NII)
51,442
49,383
17
104.2
BBRI
24,254
23,750
14
102.1
LSIP
4,727
4,538
14
104.2
BMRI
19,872
19,463
9
102.1
PGAS
40,498
38,993
14
103.9
BBCA
16,486
16,399
16
100.5
WTON
3,277
3,177
24
103.1
SMGR
5,574
5,563
4
100.2
SIMP
14,963
14,558
13
102.8
TLKM
14,638
14,805
3
98.9
PTBA
13,078
12,895
17
101.4
PTBA
2,016
2,042
10
98.7
UNTR
53,141
52,412
4
101.4
KAEF
235
239
9
98.3
TLKM
89,696
88,882
8
100.9
KLBF
2,051
2,104
7
97.5
ADRO
39,504
39,421
15
100.2
UNTR
5,370
5,532
11
97.1
BBTN (NII)
5,480
5,509
(3)
99.5
LSIP
917
973
19
94.2
JSMR
6,646
6,724
15
98.8
AALI
2,504
2,666
39
93.9
EXCL
23,460
23,757
10
98.7
ASII
19,181
20,753
(1)
92.4
ASII
201,701
204,549
4
98.6
SIMP
842
917
57
91.8
WSKT
10,287
10,523
6
97.8
PTPP
532
592
26
89.9
KLBF
17,365
17,821
9
97.4
JSMR
1,403
1,580
36
88.8
INCO
12,332
12,701
28
97.1
TBIG
1,301
1,496
4
87.0
TBIG
3,307
3,560
23
92.9
PGAS
8,588
9,957
(10)
86.2
ADHI
8,654
9,589
(12)
90.2
ADRO
2,115
2,887
(13)
73.3
KAEF
4,521
5,061
4
89.3
EXCL
(624)
(186)
142.8
12,427
14,138
7
87.9
ANTM
(404)
(289)
191.8
777,189
767,572
9
101.3
PTPP
Overall FY14 Result
Overall FY14 Result
(891)
(775)
143,817
146,831
6
97.9
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
5
17 March 2015
Weekly Report
Exhibit 20. One week report wrap
Date
Company
Title
Key Point
14-Mar-15
BTPN
BTPN
13-Mar-15
Minimal Upside
UNTR
12-Mar-15
Cement sector
On the way up
12-Mar-15
Market Outlook
Health check
10-Mar-15
Weekly report
Guarding against volatility
we expect 2015 to be a better year for the bank since BTPN would be one of the beneficiaries of a lower
interest rates environment. In this regard, its TD profile is already encouragingly shifting toward lower rate
segments. While on the loans side, Tunas Usaha Rakyat (TUR) are forecast to grow a more moderate 41.9% in
2015F before the growth pace gradually normalizes to 37.1% in 2016F. Maintain BUY.
For 2015, however, we foresee heightened risks given expectations that the rupiah will recover against the US
Dollar coupled with oversupply in the global coal market which is likely to persist. The silver lining is the
higher expected contribution from the construction sector, albeit relatively insignificant over the next three
years, in our view. we downgrade our recommendation on the stock to HOLD.
While cement sales in 2M15 still recorded negative growth y-y, we continue to believe that demand will start
to improve in 2Q, especially with government plans to accelerate project tenders coupled with better property
demand on lower mortgage rates and a potential further cut in BI interest rates. Overweight.
Excess liquidity is falling with the position at the end of February at only IDR25.7tn, or well below the level
earlier this year of IDR98.7t. Government accounts in BI rose to IDR211tn as of the end of February. Whilst
there is risk to the market in the short term, over the medium to longer term, the outlook remains upbeat as
Indonesia’s transformation story remains valid, in our view. Maintain Overweight.
Although Indonesia’s forex reserves increased further to USD115.5b in February, BI does not see any urgency
to intervene in the forex market to prop up the ailing IDR, and will instead focus on guarding against volatility
rather than the rupiah’s level itself. Currency volatility will arguably take center stage in the short-term, and,
if so, the market could be due a correction. Maintain Overweight.
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas
6
Danareksa Quant Model
17 March 2015
Weekly Report
DQM model commentary:
Last week JCI moved in red territory, recorded a negative w-w return of 1.6% dragged down by a weakening in all sectors other than consumer and agriculture. This is inline with our
model estimation as most of big caps stocks such as ASII and big banks share price tumble. This week ,our DQM model expect slight rebound on market underpinned by strong
performance by some big banks stocks such as BBCA, BMRI, and BBCA. Despite this however, we also expect a correction on some mining and property companies this week. All in
all, our model predicts a positive movement on the JCI this week. (Please see the detail on table above).
8
Tuesday, 17 March 2015
CONSTRUCTION/FY14 RESULT
Wijaya Karya
BUY
Target Price, Rp
4,000
Upside
17.7%
WIKA IJ/WIKA.JK
Last Price, Rp
No. of shares (bn)
3,400
6.1
Market Cap, Rp bn
20,907
(US$ mn)
3M T/O, US$mn
1,579
5.3
Last Recommendation
08-Jan-15
03-Nov-14
BUY
BUY
Rp4,000
Rp3,250
FY14 Results, A/F, % (INLINE)
FY14, Rp bn
Revenues
12,463
Operating profit
1,401
Net profit
615
A/F, %
94.1
99.9
99.8
Danareksa vs. Consensus
Our
4,000
137
24.7
Cons
3,853
128
26.6
WIKA is the last state-contractor to publish its FY14 results. Overall, the numbers were
inline with the company’s revised guidance, our expectations, and the market
consensus. Being the state-contractor with the biggest order book, WIKA could only
grow its order book by 8% in FY14 on the back of lower government projects
throughout the year. As a result, its FY14 revenues grew a soft 5% to Rp12.5tn.
Profitability was well maintained, however, with the gross margin at around FY13’s
level. Notably, the solid 42% growth in JO profits to Rp370bn and higher interest
income helped the company to counter higher interest expenses. At the bottom line,
WIKA booked Rp615bn of net profits in FY14, up 8%. Maintain BUY.
Modest revenues growth
Being the state-contractor with the largest order book, WIKA could only grow its order
book by 8% to Rp41.8tn in FY14 given the flat new contracts progress on the back of
lower government projects throughout the year. As a result, WIKA only posted 5%
revenues growth to Rp12.5tn in FY14. Thanks to the 42% surge in JO profits to Rp370bn,
however, WIKA still managed to post an 8% increase in net profits in FY14 despite a
threefold increase in interest expenses. All in all, WIKA’s net profits of Rp615bn are inline with the company’s October revised guidance, our expectations, and the market
consensus.
Well-maintained profitability
Given the company’s extensive diversification between its construction services and
non-construction services, WIKA’s profitability has been well maintained over a number
of years. As reflected in its FY14 result, WIKA was able to sustain its gross margin (ex. JO)
and opex to sales ratio at 11.4% and 3.2%, respectively, similar to FY13’s levels.
Moreover, the threefold increase in interest expenses to Rp198bn was partly offset by a
threefold increase in interest income to Rp74bn thanks to proceeds from the listing of
WTON in 2Q14. At the bottom line, the net margin was maintained at 4.9% in FY14.
Key chart: New contracts
Target Price, IDR
EPS 2014F, IDR
PE 2014F, x
JO profits counter higher interests
% Diff
4
7
-7
Flat new contracts progress in 2014
With a lack of government projects in 2014, WIKA could only win Rp17.6tn of new
contracts in the year, or flat compared to the previous year’s achievement. On a more
encouraging note, the 4Q14 achievement was impressive with Rp6.6tn of new
contracts. Nevertheless, WIKA started 2015 with total carry-over projects of Rp24tn,
translating into 1.9x its FY14 revenues.
Higher leverage is inevitable
WIKA’s interest costs tripled to Rp198bn given its huge interest-bearing debts during the
peak quarters in 2Q-3Q14. However, net gearing only climbed slightly to 15% as of
December 2014, partly thanks to the Rp1.4tn increase in the company’s equity raising
from WTON’s IPO back in 2Q14. With the divestment of WTON, WIKA’s minorities
increased significantly to Rp136bn (vs. Rp54bn in FY13), thus weighing on the net profits
growth.
Joko Sogie
(62-21) 2955 5827
[email protected]
Danareksa research reports are also
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Revenues, Rp bn
EBITDA, Rp bn
EBITDA Growth, %
Net Profit, Rp bn
Core Profit, Rp bn
Core EPS, Rp
Core EPS Growth, %
Net Gearing, %
PER, x
Core PER, x
PBV, x
EV/EBITDA, x
Yield, %
2012
2013
9,905
963
33.3
476
500
82
25.6
Net cash
43.6
41.5
7.3
21.3
0.5
11,885
1,356
40.8
570
668
109
33.0
8.9
36.6
31.2
6.5
15.6
0.6
2014F
13,244
1,600
18.0
617
711
116
6.5
3.4
33.8
29.3
4.1
13.1
0.6
2015F
16,504
2,102
31.4
843
932
152
31.0
8.9
24.7
22.4
3.5
10.2
0.6
2016F
19,486
2,538
20.7
1,004
1,098
179
17.8
10.1
20.8
19.0
3.0
8.5
0.6
17 March 2015
Wijaya Karya
Exhibit 1. WIKA’s FY14 Results
(in Rp bn)
New contracts
Revenues
Gross profit - ex JO
Gross profit - in JO
Operating profit
Net interest
Pre-tax income
Net profit
(in %)
Gross Margin - ex JO
Gross Margin - in JO
Opex to sales
Operating Margin
Net Margin
FY13
FY14
y-y, %
4Q13
3Q14
4Q14
q-q, %
y-y, %
2014F
A/F, %
17,743
11,885
1,322
1,583
1,216
(40)
1,017
570
17,632
12,463
1,425
1,794
1,401
(124)
1,146
615
(0.6)
4.9
7.7
13.3
15.2
211.1
12.7
7.9
4,482
3,972
478
563
439
(40)
314
180
3,900
2,752
271
345
241
(22)
214
118
6,572
3,858
485
688
576
(83)
401
214
68.5
40.2
79.2
99.5
139.4
271.8
87.3
81.7
46.6
(2.9)
1.4
22.2
31.3
104.6
27.5
19.2
18,651
13,244
1,506
1,823
1,403
(75)
1,177
617
94.5
94.1
94.6
98.4
99.9
165.4
97.4
99.8
12.0
14.2
3.1
11.0
4.5
9.8
12.5
3.8
8.7
4.3
12.6
17.8
2.9
14.9
5.6
11.1
13.3
3.1
10.2
4.8
11.4
14.4
3.2
11.2
4.9
11.4
13.8
3.2
10.6
4.7
2014C
A/C, %
13,403
1,535
93.0
92.8
1,140
638
100.5
96.4
11.5
4.8
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 2. Flat new contracts in 2014
Exhibit 3. Gearing normalized post the WTON IPO
Source: Company
Source: Company
Exhibit 4. Seasonality in revenues and net profits still persisted
Source: Company
2
17 March 2015
Wijaya Karya
3
Equity Research
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
MARKET NEWS
ACST FY14 Result: Below company guidance
ACST posted Rp105bn of net profit in FY14, only grew 5% despite its outstanding 33% growth in revenues to Rp1.4tn. The drop
in gross margin from its sustainable 20% level to 15.7% in 4Q14 has led to 2pps lower gross margin to 18.4% in FY14. In addition,
the doubled interest expenses to Rp32bn in FY14 also put more pressure to its bottom line. As a result, ACST’s net margin
squeezed to only 7.7% in FY14. Meanwhile, net gearing also continues to escalate to 34% as of December 2014 with total
interes-bearing of Rp227bn (vs. equity of Rp647bn). All in all, we believe this under-deliver result won’t impact much on current
share price, given market high expectation on Astra’s expansion story in ACST. Nonetheless, ACST current capacity potentially
could not absorb all of the Astra’s projects, means rights issue story may emerge sooner-than-expected.
BSDE FY14 Result: Inline
Results (Rp bn)
Sa l es
COGS
Gros s profi t
Opera ti ng expens es
Opera ti ng profi t
Other i ncome/(expens es )
Pre-ta x profi t
Net profi t
Gros s ma rgi n
Opex to s a l es
Opera ti ng ma rgi n
Net ma rgi n



2013
5,741
1,575
4,166
1,256
2,910
322
3,279
2,691
2014
5,572
1,440
4,132
1,500
2,632
8
4,306
3,821
72.6%
21.9%
50.7%
46.9%
74.1%
26.9%
47.2%
68.6%
yoy chg
(3.0)
(8.6)
(0.8)
19.4
(9.6)
(97.5)
31.3
42.0
3Q14
1,483
317
1,165
423
742
(13)
757
642
4Q14
1,666
492
1,174
430
745
(47)
754
614
78.6%
28.6%
50.0%
43.3%
70.5%
25.8%
44.7%
36.8%
qoq chg
12.3
55.0
0.7
1.4
0.3
246.5
(0.5)
(4.4)
2014F
5,674
1,786
3,888
1,296
2,592
79
4,323
3,710
% forecast
98.2
80.6
106.3
115.8
101.5
10.3
99.6
103.0
68.5%
22.8%
45.7%
65.4%
BSDE booked Rp3,821 bn of net profit in FY14, up by 42.0% yoy, inline with our forecast. Revenue was lower by 3.0% from
Rp5,741 bn in FY13 to Rp5,572 bn in FY14 - pretty much in line with our full year forecast, accounted 98.2%.
The gross margin is slightly improved to 74.1%, with higher margins generated from residential and land sales. However, the
operating margin down by 350 bps to 47.2%, with significant higher opex to sales ratio from 21.9% in FY13 to 26.9% in FY14.
Moreover, company showed improvement in net margin as a result of jumped in share in net income from investment in
shares – from acquisition gains from its 34.22% stake in PLIN.
BSDE maintains a healthy balance sheet with low net gearing of only 8.4%. Total cash stood at Rp2,967 bn as of December
2014.
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research
Equity Research
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Dividends Rp4.97 Trillion: Bank Mandiri will enlarge retail loans (ID)
BMRI will increase the portion of retail loans while reduce the portion of corporate loans in the next five years. The portion of
the retail segment is expected to increase from 30-35% to 40-45%. While on the other hand the corporate segment will be
reduced from 65-70% to 55-60%. The changes aim to own a well-balanced loan portfolio. BMRI AGM decided a dividend
payment of Rp4.97 trillion, or about 25% of the total net profit last year. AGM also change the board of directors and
commissioners. AGM appointed Sulaiman Arif Arianto, Kartika Wirjoatmojo, Tardi, Kartini Sally and Ahmad Siddik Badruddin. As
for the board of commissioners, Nasution will serve as chief commissioner replacing Mahmuddin Yasin. Another new
commissioner, among others Imam Apriyanto Putro, Goei Siauw Hong, Bangun Sarwito Kusmoljono, Cahaya Dwi Rembulan and
Suwhono.
Comment: the dividend payout ratio (25%) is in-line with our expectation. With dividend payment of IDR212 per share, translate
to dividend yield of1.76% using yesterday’s closing price of IDR12,000 per share. While regarding the changes in directors and
commissioners, we believe this new composition will be able to support BMRI’s plan to expand more into retail segment going
forward as this segment provides higher yield compared with corporate segment. (Eka)
KLBF Factory to Groundbreaking in 2nd Half (BI)
KLBF will start groundbreaking biopharmaceutical raw materials plant in the second half of this year. Company has conducted a
feasibility study and hopes to start construction in the second half of 2015. It has prepared a budget of US$ 30mn for the project
which located in Cikarang, West Java.
Govt Unveil Policy Package to Aid Rupiah (TJP)
In order to salvage Rupiah depreciation against US Dollar, Jokowi government has come up with policy package, with details as
follow:
1. Fiscal incentives in the form of tax allowance for foreign companies that reinvest their earnings in Indonesia and local
companies that export at least 30% of their total production, as well as tax breaks for companies that invest in research and
development and those in shipping and railway industries.
2. Import duties and temporary anti-dumping measures to protect local industries.
3. Visa waivers for nationals of 30 countries.
4. Increase in mandatory biodiesel mix from currently 10% to 15% in diesel.
5. Requirement for commodity exporters to file L/C to the government to improve monitoring of Indonesia's foreign exchange
exports.
6. Merger of domestic state-run insurance firms.
Rely on Regasification: PGAS Targeting 10% Growth (BI)
PGAS targeting consolidated revenue growth of 5-10% this year compared to 2014 realization. The Company will optimize the
FSRU business activities in Lampung and LNG reception project done by its subsidiary. Energy demand in 2015 is expected to
increase the use of natural gas. The company targets to connect one million households with natural gas that will be the energy
solution that is safer, cleaner and cheaper.
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research
Equity
Valuation
Danareksa Universe
Auto
Astra International
Gajah Tunggal
Selamat Sempurna
Banks
BCA
BNI
BRI
Bank Tabungan Negara
Bank Mandiri
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan
Cement
Holcim
Indocement
Semen Indonesia
Construction
Jasa Marga
Wijaya Karya
Pembangunan Perumahan
Adhi Karya
Waskita Karya
Wika Beton
Consumer
Indofood CBP
Indofood
Kalbe Farma
Kimia Farma
Unilever
Nippon Indosari Corpindo
Mandom
Heavy Equipment
Hexindo Adiperkasa
United Tractors
Mining
Adaro Energy
Timah
Vale Indonesia
Aneka Tambang
Bukit Asam
Indo Tambangraya Megah
Harum Energy
Plantation
Astra Agro Lestari
Sampoerna Agro
PP London Sumatra
Salim Ivomas Pratama
Property
Alam Sutera
Bumi Serpong Damai
Metropolitan Land
Surya Semesta Internusa
Lippo Karawaci
Telco & Infrastructure
XL Axiata
Indosat
Telkom
Sarana Menara Nusantara
Tower Bersama
MNC Sky Vision
Tranportation
Blue Bird
Utility
PGN
Retail
Mitra Adi Perkasa
Ramayana
Ace Hardware
Rating
Price (Rp)
Price
Mkt Cap
Target
Rp Bn
HOLD
BUY
BUY
7,975
1,310
4,605
8,300
2,000
5,300
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
14,150
6,925
12,900
1,130
12,000
4,220
12,100
7,450
13,800
1,400
12,400
5,450
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
1,655
22,175
14,400
2,300
28,300
18,800
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
7,100
3,400
3,740
3,070
1,690
1,305
8,200
4,000
4,100
3,900
2,100
1,350
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
SELL
BUY
BUY
15,000
7,350
1,790
1,335
39,575
1,175
18,850
13,800
9,000
1,900
1,550
26,000
1,615
19,300
HOLD
HOLD
3,445
20,650
3,650
22,200
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
945
990
3,365
955
10,225
16,800
1,520
1,280
1,400
4,700
1,100
15,500
18,500
1,750
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
26,025
2,060
1,920
725
27,100
2,600
2,090
850
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
560
2,015
433
1,160
1,085
700
2,100
620
1,040
1,200
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
4,400
4,100
2,975
3,980
9,075
1,640
5,500
3,820
3,250
4,525
9,625
1,710
BUY
9,900
12,200
BUY
5,225
6,650
BUY
BUY
BUY
4,985
790
785
6,250
910
920
Net profit, Rp bn
2015
2016
EPS (Rp)
2015
EPS Growth
2016
3,272,835
203,057
232,032
310.7
355.0
337,219
322,856
4,565
6,630
1,112,830
348,868
129,142
318,232
11,942
280,000
24,646
179,727
12,682
81,631
85,414
120,641
48,280
20,907
18,111
5,530
16,439
11,374
555,016
87,464
64,536
83,906
7,415
301,957
5,948
3,790
79,921
2,894
77,027
126,797
30,227
7,373
33,436
9,109
23,560
18,983
4,110
69,443
40,983
3,893
13,100
11,467
81,802
11,004
37,019
3,282
5,458
25,039
455,432
37,552
22,279
299,880
40,608
43,528
11,585
24,771
24,771
126,662
126,662
27,344
8,275
5,606
13,463
25,124
23,976
730
419
82,802
18,714
12,142
27,391
1,199
21,218
2,137
12,525
923
5,741
5,861
4,665
1,600
843
762
419
646
396
17,089
3,408
4,472
2,481
312
5,972
234
210
5,764
220
5,544
9,623
2,607
651
2,240
194
2,031
1,782
119
5,510
2,770
464
1,055
1,221
5,943
1,254
2,369
290
464
1,565
21,550
1,208
312
16,211
1,702
1,933
184
1,253
1,253
11,088
11,088
1,376
352
409
615
29,427
28,096
895
437
94,106
21,363
13,914
31,497
1,441
23,420
2,472
15,375
1,213
6,595
7,567
5,631
1,877
1,004
936
530
792
491
19,711
3,968
5,236
2,895
379
6,717
291
226
6,341
260
6,081
10,934
2,662
765
2,753
400
2,170
1,982
202
5,938
2,832
550
1,133
1,423
6,634
1,516
2,617
322
415
1,763
25,923
1,776
588
18,544
2,121
2,570
324
1,554
1,554
10,313
10,313
1,698
543
444
711
460.2
592
209
291
768.7
742
651
1,110
114
909
366
725
120
1,559
988
123
422
137
157
232
66
45
214
584
509
53
56
783
46
1,045
1,261
262
1,486
148
82
87
225
20
934
1,577
44
211
1,759
245
155
77
81
64
135
38
99
72
157
141
57
161
167
380
26
501
501
457
457
53
212
58
36
539.0
694
257
303
873.7
856
746
1,277
137
1,004
423
890
158
1,792
1,276
148
547
164
193
294
81
56
247
680
596
62
68
880
58
1,126
1,387
309
1,630
168
83
103
277
42
998
1,755
75
227
1,798
291
166
90
90
77
150
43
88
82
189
208
108
184
208
462
46
621
621
425
425
66
327
63
41
2015
PER (x)
EV / EBITDA (x)
PBV (x)
2016
2015
2016
2015
2016
2015
2016
12%
14%
16.1
14.1
13.8
12.4
2.9
2.6
18%
16%
183%
14%
12%
11%
13%
13%
11%
9%
17%
7%
12%
8%
5%
27%
25%
37%
29%
56%
28%
32%
13%
20%
8%
18%
31%
10%
21%
8%
4%
13%
3%
6%
-7%
40%
23%
-148%
-1%
-15%
-53%
11%
4%
18%
8%
33%
-25%
15%
-36%
14%
32%
-38%
35%
-236%
-152%
6%
35%
38%
71%
62%
62%
3%
3%
28%
112%
9%
17%
17%
17%
23%
4%
14%
15%
15%
15%
21%
10%
16%
23%
31%
15%
29%
21%
30%
19%
23%
27%
23%
24%
15%
16%
17%
17%
21%
12%
26%
8%
10%
18%
10%
14%
2%
18%
23%
106%
7%
11%
69%
8%
2%
19%
7%
17%
12%
21%
10%
11%
-11%
13%
20%
47%
89%
14%
25%
22%
76%
24%
24%
-7%
-7%
23%
54%
9%
14%
13.4
13.5
6.3
15.8
13.4
19.1
10.6
11.6
9.9
13.2
11.5
14.3
13.7
14.2
14.6
25.9
16.8
24.7
23.8
13.2
25.6
28.8
32.5
25.7
14.4
33.8
23.7
50.6
25.5
18.0
13.9
13.2
13.9
13.2
11.6
11.3
14.9
46.9
10.9
10.7
34.5
12.6
14.8
8.4
12.4
9.4
13.8
8.8
14.9
11.3
11.8
15.0
21.1
31.1
71.4
18.5
23.9
23.9
63.0
19.8
19.8
11.4
11.4
19.9
23.5
13.7
21.8
11.5
11.5
5.1
15.2
11.8
16.5
9.3
10.1
8.2
12.0
10.0
11.7
10.5
12.4
11.3
21.4
13.0
20.8
19.3
10.4
20.9
23.1
28.2
22.0
12.3
29.0
19.7
45.0
20.3
16.7
12.6
11.1
12.7
11.6
11.4
9.6
12.1
22.8
10.2
9.6
20.4
11.7
14.5
7.1
11.6
8.1
12.3
7.3
13.5
10.2
13.1
13.3
17.6
21.1
37.9
16.2
19.1
19.6
35.7
15.9
15.9
12.3
12.3
16.1
15.2
12.6
19.1
10.8
11.1
4.9
9.1
9.3
9.5
4.5
8.6
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
8.7
7.2
8.4
9.4
12.7
15.9
10.2
10.5
7.2
13.0
15.7
20.1
17.5
7.2
23.1
16.9
35.8
13.8
9.7
6.0
6.3
6.0
6.0
4.6
5.5
6.3
15.8
7.8
5.0
4.9
6.8
8.9
5.3
6.5
4.7
10.3
8.5
12.5
7.6
5.4
11.5
6.5
5.9
3.8
5.8
11.9
15.3
9.6
10.9
10.9
7.7
7.7
9.9
7.8
6.9
15.7
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
7.7
5.6
7.0
8.8
10.9
14.2
8.5
8.8
6.2
10.5
12.8
17.6
15.3
6.2
19.9
14.2
31.9
11.5
9.0
5.2
5.1
5.2
5.3
4.2
4.9
5.1
11.7
7.2
4.6
3.9
6.1
8.4
4.6
5.6
4.2
9.1
7.2
11.0
7.1
5.6
9.8
5.7
5.1
3.5
5.1
10.2
12.9
8.1
9.0
9.0
8.3
8.3
8.4
6.5
6.2
13.3
2.4
2.4
0.7
4.7
2.6
3.8
1.9
2.7
0.9
2.4
1.8
2.7
1.2
2.9
3.2
4.1
3.8
3.5
5.8
2.7
4.9
4.6
8.4
5.4
2.2
7.9
3.6
56.9
5.2
2.6
1.9
1.0
1.9
1.3
1.0
1.3
1.5
0.7
2.5
1.8
1.1
1.8
3.5
1.2
1.6
0.7
1.9
1.5
2.5
1.5
1.9
1.6
3.5
2.5
1.4
3.8
6.2
3.6
5.8
5.6
5.6
3.1
3.1
3.0
2.9
1.6
4.7
2.1
2.1
0.6
4.0
2.2
3.2
1.6
2.2
0.8
2.1
1.5
2.4
1.1
2.6
2.7
3.5
3.5
3.0
4.6
2.3
4.2
3.9
7.5
4.7
2.0
6.9
3.1
52.2
4.2
2.4
1.7
1.0
1.8
1.3
0.9
1.2
1.4
0.7
2.3
1.8
1.1
1.7
3.2
1.0
1.5
0.7
1.7
1.3
2.1
1.3
1.7
1.4
3.2
2.2
1.3
3.5
4.9
3.0
5.1
4.4
4.4
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.5
1.5
3.9
Net Gearing
ROE
2015
2015
19.2
33.5
75.3
net cash
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
30.0
net cash
12.3
116.4
8.9
17.1
92.7
39.2
net cash
net cash
16.6
net cash
net cash
21.0
41.4
2.6
net cash
net cash
37.0
10.2
2.5
62.8
net cash
net cash
net cash
net cash
31.8
net cash
37.6
75.3
net cash
27.7
net cash
29.1
114.2
132.4
net cash
107.9
120.9
117.0
47.8
net cash
84.7
net cash
net cash
18.9
19.1
11.5
32.3
21.2
22.1
19.1
25.2
9.4
19.5
16.7
20.0
9.1
21.2
23.2
16.9
13.4
15.4
27.1
22.4
20.9
17.1
27.4
22.3
16.0
25.1
16.1
124.3
22.2
15.3
14.1
8.0
14.5
10.1
8.1
12.4
10.0
1.6
22.7
18.0
3.1
14.9
24.5
14.5
13.9
8.2
14.4
18.9
16.6
14.2
16.9
10.1
18.2
8.3
2.0
21.8
29.8
23.9
9.5
32.3
32.3
28.7
28.7
15.7
13.0
11.8
23.8
Equity Research
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
COVERAGE PERFORMANCE
LEADERS
Price as on
Code
16-Mar-2015
1,920
13-Mar-2015
Chg, %
w-w, %
m-m, %
YTD, %
Rating
1,840
4.3
1.6
1.1
1.6
HOLD
PP London Sumatra
LSIP
Salim Ivomas Pratama
SIMP
725
705
2.8
0.7
2.8
2.8
BUY
Bank Negara Indonesia
BBNI
6,925
6,750
2.6
3.4
4.1
13.5
BUY
Indofood CBP
ICBP
15,000
14,625
2.6
5.4
5.6
14.5
BUY
Vale Indonesia
INCO
3,365
3,295
2.1
(1.8)
(3.2)
(7.2)
BUY
Hexindo Adiperkasa
HEXA
3,445
3,380
1.9
1.2
(7.3)
(1.7)
HOLD
Astra Agro Lestari
AALI
26,025
25,625
1.6
(0.2)
3.3
7.3
BUY
Ramayana
RALS
790
780
1.3
7.5
9.0
-
BUY
Astra International
Semen Indonesia
ASII
SMGR
7,975
14,400
7,875
14,225
1.3
1.2
0.3
(2.4)
2.2
(1.9)
7.4
(11.1)
Chg, %
w-w, %
m-m, %
YTD, %
Rating
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
LAGGARDS
Code
Price as on
16-Mar-2015 13-Mar-2015
Indo Tambangraya Megah
ITMG
17,300
(2.9)
-
(8.8)
9.3
Adaro Energy
ADRO
Tower Bersama
TBIG
945
970
(2.6)
(4.5)
(5.5)
(9.1)
BUY
9,075
9,300
(2.4)
(0.8)
3.7
(6.4)
HOLD
Kimia Farma
KAEF
1,335
1,365
(2.2)
(2.2)
7.2
(8.9)
BUY
Aneka Tambang
ANTM
Harum Energy
HRUM
955
975
(2.1)
(3.0)
(7.3)
(10.3)
HOLD
1,520
1,550
(1.9)
(2.3)
(10.1)
(8.4)
HOLD
Bukit Asam
PTBA
Ace Hardware
ACES
10,225
10,425
(1.9)
(5.1)
(7.7)
(18.2)
BUY
785
800
(1.9)
(4.3)
2.6
Adhi Karya
ADHI
3,070
3,110
(1.3)
(3.8)
(8.8)
(11.8)
BUY
Selamat Sempurna
SMSM
4,605
4,660
(1.2)
0.8
(6.0)
(3.1)
BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research
16,800
-
BUY
Equity Research
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
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