Download Report

Europa League Final
This preview was researched by the analysts at Football Form Labs.
If you have a question about how to use Form Labs or would like to request a strategy to be
researched, please do get in touch via [email protected]
If you are not yet member, you can get started with a 14 day free trial today.
Dnipro v Sevilla, Wednesday 27th May 2015
Europa League specialists Sevilla take on surprise package Dnipro in this season’s Europa League
final on Wednesday night in Warsaw. Dnipro were available to back at 251.0 prior to the tournament
and are now 3.75 to lift the trophy, with Sevilla strong favourites at 1.3 to retain the trophy and
since Unai Emery’s side were only able to finish 5th in La Liga, they’ll be desperate to win the Europa
League to ensure Champions League qualification for next season. Part of the reason for Sevilla’s
short price to lift the trophy is their excellent record in this competition: this is the fourth time they’ll
be competing in a Europa League final and they’ve gone on to lift the trophy on the previous three
occasions, though they twice needed penalties to exercise their superiority.
Whilst Real Madrid’s semi-final exit in the Champions League means that no side has successfully
defended that title, Sevilla managed to defend their 2005/06 Europa League win the following
season, so they won’t have that monkey on their back going into this game. Their triumphs are
detailed in the table below, together with the other seven Europa League finals since 2004/05 and
the Football Form Labs grading of each of the finalists over this period. We use our grading system,
which is loosely based on ELO, to rate all European domestic clubs and it aided us in recommending
Juventus at 29.0 Each Way to win the Champions League this season.
Season
Team
Versus
FT Score
AET
score
Pens
Grade
Opp
Grade
Grade
diff
2014/15
Sevilla
Dnipro
-
-
-
164.16
147.01
17.15
2013/14
Benfica
Sevilla
163.71
153.43
10.28
0-0
2-4
164.88
163.41
1.47
162.08
154.31
7.77
171.51
151.28
20.24
157.23
150.05
7.18
0-0
2012/13
Chelsea
Benfica
2011/12
Atl. Madrid
Ath. Bilbao
2-1
3-0
2010/11
FC Porto
Atl. Madrid
-
Sp. Braga
1-0
2009/10
-
Fulham
1-1
2-1
-
2008/09
S Donetsk
W. Bremen
1-1
2007/08
Rangers
Sevilla
Sevilla
CSKA M.
3-1
2-2
Middlesbrough
4-0
2004/05
-
-
Espanyol
1-1
2005/06
2-1
Zenit St P
0-2
2006/07
-
Sporting CP
3-1
-
-
-
-
159.66
156.08
3.58
152.51
150.89
1.63
166.39
158.37
8.02
160.46
145.95
14.51
154.68
149.34
5.34
What is immediately evident from this table is that Zenit were the only lower graded side to have
beaten a side with a higher grade in 90 minutes since 2004/05 but the grading difference then was
minimal. Indeed, the only other final that was more unevenly matched according to our grading was
the 2010/11 final between Porto and Sparta Braga, and Sevilla similarly showed why they had a
much higher grading than Middlesbrough in 2005/06 as they ran our comfortable 4-0 winners.
Worryingly for Dnipro, Middlesbrough were the only Europa League finalist with a lower grading
than them in this time, and that is only marginally the case. Had you backed the higher graded side
to lift the trophy in each of the last 10 Europa League finals, you would have backed the winner eight
times. Dnipro’s last picked up a piece of silverware in 1989 when they won the Soviet Cup, despite
the fact that they’ve reached the Ukrainian Cup final on three occasions since then. Sevilla, on the
other hand, are used to success having won the Europa League just last season.
Having looked at historical Europa League finals, next we turn our attention to the path the finalists
took to the showpiece event in Warsaw on Wednesday night.
Dnipro Path to the Final
Team
Versus
H/A/N
Round
Gp match
FT Score
2nd leg
FT
res
W
1-0
H/T
res
D
H/T
Score
0-0
Dnipro
Napoli
H
SF
Dnipro
Napoli
A
SF
1st leg
D
1-1
D
0-0
Dnipro
Club Brugge
H
QF
2nd leg
W
1-0
D
0-0
Dnipro
Club Brugge
A
QF
1st leg
D
0-0
D
0-0
Dnipro
Ajax
A
Last 16 2nd leg
L
0-1
D
0-0
Dnipro
Ajax
H
Last 16 1st leg
W
1-0
W
1-0
Dnipro
Olympiakos
A
Last 32 2nd leg
D
2-2
D
1-1
Dnipro
Olympiakos
H
Last 32 1st leg
W
2-0
D
0-0
Dnipro
Saint-Etienne H
GS1
6
W
1-0
D
0-0
Dnipro
Inter Milan
A
GS1
5
L
1-2
D
1-1
Dnipro
FK Karabakh
A
GS1
4
W
2-1
D
1-1
Dnipro
FK Karabakh
H
GS1
3
L
0-1
L
0-1
Dnipro
Saint-Etienne A
GS1
2
D
0-0
D
0-0
Dnipro
Inter Milan
GS1
1
L
0-1
D
0-0
H
Dnipro’s remarkable run to the final has been largely built upon a very solid defence. They’ve
conceded just four goals in their eight knockout matches, with seven of these games having Under
2.5 goals. They also won their four knockout home games to nil and herein lies the problem for the
Ukrainian side: whilst the Dnipro Arena is undoubtedly a very difficult place to go, with Napoli and
Ajax both suffering defeats there in this Europa League campaign, Dnipro have only beaten
Azerbaijani side Karabakh on the road in Europe this season.
As well as a definite ‘unders’ trend, with 11 of their 14 matches having Under 2.5 goals and nine with
Under 1.5, the other thing that stands out about Dnipro’s campaign is the 12 times they’ve drawn
the first half, with no first-half goals on nine occasions. Since overcoming Napoli in the semi-final,
Dnipro have had some tough fixtures, losing at Dynamo Kyiv but beating Shakhtar at home in the
league on Saturday despite resting a number of players, with a Cup semi-final draw at Shakhtar
sandwiched in between, though that wasn’t enough to overturn the defeat they suffered in the
home leg of that tie. Myron Markevych looks set to be able to pick the same team that beat Napoli
in the semi-final, although there is an injury doubt over the scorer of the winning goal from that
match, Yevhen Seleznyov.
Sevilla Path to the Final
Team
Versus
H/A/N
Round
SF
Gp
match
2nd leg
FT
res
W
FT
Score
2-0
H/T
res
W
H/T
Score
2-0
Sevilla Fiorentina
A
Sevilla Fiorentina
H
SF
1st leg
W
3-0
W
1-0
Sevilla Zenit St P
A
QF
2nd leg
D
2-2
W
1-0
Sevilla Zenit St P
H
QF
1st leg
W
2-1
L
0-1
Sevilla Villarreal
H
Last 16 2nd leg
W
2-1
D
0-0
Sevilla Villarreal
A
Last 16 1st leg
W
3-1
W
2-0
Sevilla B. M'gladbach
A
Last 32 2nd leg
W
3-2
D
2-2
Sevilla B. M'gladbach
H
Last 32 1st leg
W
1-0
D
0-0
Sevilla HNK Rijeka
H
GS1
6
W
1-0
W
1-0
Sevilla Feyenoord
A
GS1
5
L
0-2
D
0-0
Sevilla Standard Liege
H
GS1
4
W
3-1
W
2-1
Sevilla Standard Liege
A
GS1
3
D
0-0
D
0-0
Sevilla HNK Rijeka
A
GS1
2
D
2-2
W
1-0
Sevilla Feyenoord
H
GS1
1
W
2-0
W
2-0
Whilst Dnipro have lost four games in the Europa League this season, Sevilla have lost just once and
have won seven of their eight knockout matches, despite the fact that on paper these fixtures
looked fairly tough. Whilst the victory over Fiorentina was straightforward as they won 5-0 on
aggregate, they had to dig deep to overcome Zenit in both legs: they were one-nil down in the home
leg after 70 minutes, before going on to win 2-1 and at Zenit they were looking at extra-time when
they were 1-2 down before Kevin Gameiro equalised after 85 minutes. Since that win over
Fiorentina, Sevilla went on to win their final two La Liga games and have now won six of their last
eight matches in all competitions going into the final, with a draw at Celta Vigo and a narrow 2-3
defeat at home to Real Madrid the only blots on their copybook. Sevilla don’t have any new injury
concerns going into this game with Pareja the only significant absentee as winger Vitolo should be
available for selection, despite missing Sevilla’s final league game against Malaga.
Though six of Sevilla’s last seven Europa League games had more than two goals, we expect this to
be a much tighter affair against a very well organised Dnipro side and Sevilla might even need extratime and possibly penalties to overcome the Ukrainians, as they did in two of their previous three
Europa League finals. With that in mind, Sevilla’s price to win in 90 minutes looks a little skinny to us
at 1.62. Instead, Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 looks a very solid bet: six of the last eight Europa League
finals had fewer than three goals and with Dnipro notoriously difficult to break down, we can see
this final going the same way. The 0-0 half-time score also looks appealing at 2.8 and backing
Draw/Sevilla in the half time/full time market at 4.4 is another way to get Sevilla on side at a more
attractive price.