1. business and industrial
2. metals

Commodity Analysis & Opinion
01-JUNE-2015
Make Your Money Work for You
ELITE COMTRADE RESEARCH DESK
PRICE MOVEMENT 29-MAY-15
COMMODITIES
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
GOLD
27100.00
27171.00
27025.00
26860.00
SILVER
38365.00
38550.00
38217.00
38349.00
CRUDE OIL
3670.00
3876.00
3670.00
3869.00
NATURAL GAS
174.20
175.10
169.50
169.80
COPPER
393.80
393.95
386.00
386.65
NICKEL
817.80
821.90
806.10
808.00
LEAD
127.95
128.20
123.50
124.45
ZINC
142.95
143.90
139.40
139.60
ALUMINIUM
112.60
113.00
110.05
110.10
MENTHA OIL
920.50
951.70
913.00
953.20
TECHNICAL LEVELS FOR 01-JUNE-15
SYMBOL
EXPIRY
CLOSE
S2
S1
R1
R2
TREND
GOLD
AUGUST
26860.00
26860.00
27020.00
27260.00
27380.00
SIDEWAYS
SILVER
JULY
38349.00
38020.00
38240.00
38560.00
38840.00
SIDEWAYS
CRUDE OIL
JUNE
3869.00
3810.00
3840.00
3906.00
3960.00
UP
NATURAL
GAS
COPPER
JUNE
169.80
164.60
168.00
172.20
174.80
UP
JUNE
386.65
382.00
385.60
390.30
393.30
NICKEL
JUNE
808.00
792.00
804.00
821.00
834.00
SIDEWAYS
TO UP
SIDEWAYS
LEAD
JUNE
124.45
122.70
123.60
125.20
126.40
SIDEWAYS
ZINC
JUNE
139.60
138.00
139.00
140.30
141.60
SIDEWAYS
ALUMINIUM JUNE
110.10
108.90
109.85
111.30
112.40
DOWN
MENTHA
OIL
953.20
912.00
927.00
952.00
968.00
SIDEWAYS
JUNE
GOLD
FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT
Gold prices are flat in early trade but remain supported
as concerns over Greece remain and U.S. data remains
weak. The U.S. economy contracted in the first
quarter by 0.7% on a larger trade deficit and a smaller
accumulation of inventories. Latest reports suggest that
Greece missed a self-imposed Sunday deadline for
reaching an agreement that would pave the way for it to
receive its bailout tranche.
TECHNICAL ASPECT
Gold has entered into a rising channel with downward
support at 26700 and upward resistance at 27600-800.
So buying at the bottom of the channel at 26800 and
selling at in range 27600 to 27800 should be the current
strategy.
SILVER
FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT
Silver futures for July delivery ended Friday's session
at $17.49 a troy ounce. Silver surged 6.67% on the
week, the third consecutive weekly advance. The US
Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s
strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major
currencies, was at four-month lows of 93.29.
TECHNICAL ASPECT
Silver has formed a trading range of 36000-40500
with two distinct sub ranges. One range is between
38000-40500 and the other one is between 3600038000. Now it is hovering in the upper sub range with
strong support around 38000 level. So buy around
38000 or sell around 40500 should be the current
strategy.
COPPER
FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT
Base metals are mostly higher in early trade as
weaker Chinese data raised hopes of further easing
by China. The official manufacturing PMI edged up
to 50.2 from April's 50.1 but the HSBC PMI
remained in contraction at 49.2 as new export
business saw sharpest fall in 2 years. Copper on the
LME recovered slightly from a four week low
registered a monthly decline. Support on the
downside may come on seasonal demand strength
in the second quarter.
TECHNICAL ASPECT
Copper is looking technically weak with major
resistance around 411. There is much more chances
that copper may come down to 388 level. So for the
time being, all rally should be used to sell copper with
stop loss above 401 on closing basis for a target
around 388-390 level.
CRUDE OIL
FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT
Oil prices are lower today after recovering
sharply on Friday as rig count in the US fell
sharply again last week U.S. rig count posted a 25th
consecutive week of decline, falling by 13 to 646. EIA
data showed that inventories fell for a fourth straight
week by 2.8 million barrels. API data earlier showed
that crude inventories unexpectedly increased 1.3
million barrels. U.S. production show a big jump last
week as output climbed to 9.56 mbpd as data was
revised higher. This may keep a lid on prices.
Investors will now await the OPEC meeting.
TECHNICAL ASPECT
Crude has given a first breakdown and closed above
3791. Now it has the potential to go to the range
between 3960-4040 level. Now all decline to be used
to create long position in crude with stop loss below
3760.
EVENTS OF THE DAY
TIME
COUNTRY
EVENT
ACTUAL
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
IMPACT
06:30 AM
CHINA
MANUFACTURING PMI
--
50.2
50.1
HIGH
CHINA
NON-MANUFACTURING PMI
--
--
5304
HIGH
07:00 AM
AUSTRALIA
BUILDING APPROVALS m/m
--
-1.75
2.8%
HIGH
07:15 AM
CHINA
--
49.2
49.1
HIGH
12:45 PM
EUROPE
HSBC FINAL MANUFACTURING
PMI
SPANISH MANUFACTURING PMI
--
54.4
54.2
MEDIUM
01:15 PM
EUROPE
ITALIAN MANUFACTURING PMI
--
53.1
53.8
MEDIUM
01:25 PM
EUROPE
--
51.4
51.4
MEDIUM
02:00 PM
BRITAIN
GERMAN FINAL MANUFACTURING
PMI
MANUFACTURING PMI
--
52.7
51.9
HIGH
06:00 PM
US
CORE PCE PRICE INDEX m/m
--
0.25
0.1%
MEDIUM
US
PERSONAL SPENDING m/m
--
0.2%
0.4%
MEDIUM
07:00 PM
US
FOMC MEMBER FISCHER SPEAKS
--
--
--
MEDIUM
07:30 PM
US
ISM MANUFACTURING PMI
--
51.9
51.5
HIGH
OPEN POSITIONAL CALLS
1. MCX NICKEL JUNE BUY CALL : BUY BETWEEN 826-828, TARGET 900, SL 780(CLOSING BASIS )
DISCLAIMER
Private circulation only:
The recommendation made herein does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any of the
securities / commodities mentioned.
Readers using the information contained herein are solely responsible for their actions. The information and
views contained herein are believed to be reliable but no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors of act
or opinion. Analysts may or may not have trading or investment positions in the
securities / commodities mentioned herein.
Data are provide “AS IS” for informational purpose and is not intended for
trading purposes.