Weekly Monytor
April 13th, 2015
United States
Yield Curve - Nominal
Inflation and policy rates – USA
Last observation: 4/10/2015
Surprise Index and US Treasuries
Last Observation: 4/10/2015
Global Risk
Last Observation: 4/10/2015
Europe
CDS USD SR 5Y
Stock Indexes
Last Observation: 4/10/2015
Last observation: 4/10/2015
Euro and spreads
Last observation: 4/10/2015
Surprise Index
Last Observation: 4/9/2015
Regional
EMBI
Last Observation: 4/7/2015
Overnight rate
Last Observation: 4/9/2015
Inflation
Last Observation: 3/31/2015
Industrial production
Last Observation: 2/28/2015
Commodities
Commodities
Last Observation: 4/10/2015
Last Observation: 4/10/2015
Stock/consumption
Last Observation: 4/1/2015
Soy – first and seventh contract
Industrial grains and oilseed exports
Last observation: 4/4/2015
Equity and Exchange Rate
Global equity
Last observation: 4/9/2015
Last observation: 4/10/2015
Currencies
Last observation: 4/2/2015
Regional Equity
Real Effective Exchange Rate
Last Observation: 4/10/2015
Argentina: Foreign Sector
Dollar Futures
Exchange Rates
Last Observation: 04/08/15
Implicit Change in 90-days Futures vs Lebac 90-days rate
Last Observation: 04/09/15
Exchange rates premium
Last Observation: 04/08/15
Argentina: Interest Rates
Active and deposit interest rates
Badlar rate and bank liquidity
Last Observation: 03/27/15
Last Observation: 04/08/2015
Badlar, Lebac and Retail Deposits
Last Observation: 04/01/2015
Lebac Placements
Argentina: Monetary Aggregates
Private Deflated Deposits
Foreign reserves
Last Observation: 3/27/15
Last Observation: 3/27/15
M2 and Private Sector M2
Net FX Purchases and Reserves
Last Observation: 3/27/15
Last Observation: 04/9/15
Argentina: Inflation
Weekly variation
Last observation: 3/30/2015
Compared variations
Last observation: March 2015
4-weeks variation
Last observation:3/30/2015
Monthly variations by items
Glossary
United States
Yield Curve – Nominal: Yields on U.S. treasury bonds at 3 and 6 months and 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10 and
30 years.
Surprise index and US Treasuries: The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index measures the
changes, historically weighted, in the gap between expectations and actual economic data. The
interest rate refers to the 10-year US Treasury bond yield.
Inflation and policy rates: Slope 2-10 reflects the spread between the 2 and 10 year US
Treasury bond yield. Fed Funds Rate is the Federal Reserve’s target rate. CPI refers to the US
official consumer price index. Breakeven 2yr is the spread between the nominal 2-year US
Treasury bond yield and the inflation-adjusted US Treasury bond yield of same maturity;
reflects inflation expectations for that period.
Global risk: CDX High Yield Index: Index composed by 5-year CDS of a 100 US companies with B
and BB ratings. VIX: the implied volatility of options on the Chicago market index for a period of
30 days. Libor IOs: The spread Liboir - Ois measures the relative tension in money markets, the
banks perception of credit risk from other financial institutions and the general availability of
funds for financing. A high differential can be interpreted as a fall in the major banks intention
of lending, while a low differential indicates a high level of liquidity in the market.
Europe
CDS: 5-year CDS of European countries in US dollars and 5-year U.S. Treasury CDS in Euros (EUR
5Y CDS ZCTO).
Euro and spreads: Spread 2yr GE Bund-US Treasury: Yield spread between German 2-year
bond yield and US Treasury 2-year bond yield. Euro: EURUSD spot.
Stock Indexes: Main European stock indexes, January 2011=100.
Surprise Index: Same as US Citigroup Economic Surprise Index but for the European Union.
Regional
EMBI: Main sovereign risk index for selected LATAM countries.
Inflation: Annual inflation rate according to official statistical agencies in selected LATAM
countries.
Overnight Rate: Short term interest rate; target rate.
Industrial Production: 3-month moving average of the year-over-year change in industrial
production in selected LATAM countries according to official statistical agencies.
Commodities
Commodities: Price, in US dollars, of selected commodities.
Stock/consumption: Global stock of wheat, soy and corn relative to global consumption of each
commodity. Indicator of price movements.
Soy – first and seventh contract: Soy price, in US dollars per ton, for the first nearest contract
to date and for the seventh contract to date, as well as price spread between both.
Industrial grains and oilseed exports: FX liquidations by the oleaginous industry and cereals
exporters, in US dollars, according to CEC and CIARA.
Equity and Exchange Rate
Global equity: Selected stock indexes (Japanese Nikkei, German Dax, Spain, Greece and US S&P
500), January 2011=100 base.
Currencies: Spot exchange rate, relative to the US dollar, of selected currencies. Upwards
movement in the graph reflects nominal depreciation and downward movement reflects
nominal appreciation.
Regional Equity: Main LATAM stock indexes, January 2011=100 base.
Real Effective Exchange Rate: Evolution of an index that results of weighting the nominal
effective exchange rate by the evolution of the CPI’s of Argentina’s main trading partners,
according to each countries’ weight in Argentina’s imports.
Argentina: Foreign Sector
Dollar futures: future dollar market positions Curves for the last observation and for a week,
month and year before.
Implicit Change in 30-days Futures: variation of the dollar against their future to 28 days.
Exchange rate: Blue-chip: implied exchange rate by the ratio between the price in pesos and
dollars of Tenaris’ stock in the local and international markets respectively. Blue: dollar
exchange rate in the informal market.
Exchange rates premiums: Premiums on blue chip dollar and blue dollar.
Argentina: Interest rates
Lending and deposit interest rates: Private Banks Badlar rate for deposit rates (average annual
rates for term deposits of 30 to 35 day period and over a million pesos) and checking account
overdrafts for lending rates.
Badlar, Lebac y REPO’s: Private Banks Badlar, Lebac (implied interest rates accepted in Lebacs
auctions with maturities of 6 months) and REPO’s (REPO’s TNA Assets to a day, total wheel
REPO).
Badlar rate and Bank liquidity: Banking system’s liquidity, measures as LEBACs+NOBACs+cash
at the BCRA+cash at banks+REPOs, and evolution of the Badlar rate.
Lebac Placements: Implied interest rates accepted in Lebacs bids.
Argentina: Monetary Aggregates
Public and private Deflated Deposits: Evolution of the stock of sight and time deposits in ARS
and USD, deflated by provincial inflation data.
M2 and Private Sector M2: Total and Private Sector M2 transactional aggregate.
Reserves: Stock of net and gross international reserves held by the BCRA.
Net foreign exchange purchases and reserves: Net purchases of the BCRA at the wholesale FX
market estimated by market data and evolution of the stock of international reserves held by
the BCRA.
Argentina: Inflation
Weekly variation: One week average inflation against previous’ week average inflation,
according to our National Elypsis-CPI that’s weighted as INDEC’s IPCNu, and to our CABA
weighted Elypsis-CPI that’s weighted as CABA’s official CPI.
4-week Variation: Average inflation in the current week against average inflation in the week
four weeks before, according to our National Elypsis-CPI that’s weighted as INDEC’s IPCNu, and
to our CABA weighted Elypsis-CPI that’s weighted as CABA’s official CPI.
Compared Variations: Comparative of weekly inflation according to different sources, including
official data.
Monthly variations by Items: Monthly variations of different items included in our National
Elypsis-CPI.