Weekly Monytor April 13th, 2015 United States Yield Curve - Nominal Inflation and policy rates – USA Last observation: 4/10/2015 Surprise Index and US Treasuries Last Observation: 4/10/2015 Global Risk Last Observation: 4/10/2015 Europe CDS USD SR 5Y Stock Indexes Last Observation: 4/10/2015 Last observation: 4/10/2015 Euro and spreads Last observation: 4/10/2015 Surprise Index Last Observation: 4/9/2015 Regional EMBI Last Observation: 4/7/2015 Overnight rate Last Observation: 4/9/2015 Inflation Last Observation: 3/31/2015 Industrial production Last Observation: 2/28/2015 Commodities Commodities Last Observation: 4/10/2015 Last Observation: 4/10/2015 Stock/consumption Last Observation: 4/1/2015 Soy – first and seventh contract Industrial grains and oilseed exports Last observation: 4/4/2015 Equity and Exchange Rate Global equity Last observation: 4/9/2015 Last observation: 4/10/2015 Currencies Last observation: 4/2/2015 Regional Equity Real Effective Exchange Rate Last Observation: 4/10/2015 Argentina: Foreign Sector Dollar Futures Exchange Rates Last Observation: 04/08/15 Implicit Change in 90-days Futures vs Lebac 90-days rate Last Observation: 04/09/15 Exchange rates premium Last Observation: 04/08/15 Argentina: Interest Rates Active and deposit interest rates Badlar rate and bank liquidity Last Observation: 03/27/15 Last Observation: 04/08/2015 Badlar, Lebac and Retail Deposits Last Observation: 04/01/2015 Lebac Placements Argentina: Monetary Aggregates Private Deflated Deposits Foreign reserves Last Observation: 3/27/15 Last Observation: 3/27/15 M2 and Private Sector M2 Net FX Purchases and Reserves Last Observation: 3/27/15 Last Observation: 04/9/15 Argentina: Inflation Weekly variation Last observation: 3/30/2015 Compared variations Last observation: March 2015 4-weeks variation Last observation:3/30/2015 Monthly variations by items Glossary United States Yield Curve – Nominal: Yields on U.S. treasury bonds at 3 and 6 months and 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10 and 30 years. Surprise index and US Treasuries: The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index measures the changes, historically weighted, in the gap between expectations and actual economic data. The interest rate refers to the 10-year US Treasury bond yield. Inflation and policy rates: Slope 2-10 reflects the spread between the 2 and 10 year US Treasury bond yield. Fed Funds Rate is the Federal Reserve’s target rate. CPI refers to the US official consumer price index. Breakeven 2yr is the spread between the nominal 2-year US Treasury bond yield and the inflation-adjusted US Treasury bond yield of same maturity; reflects inflation expectations for that period. Global risk: CDX High Yield Index: Index composed by 5-year CDS of a 100 US companies with B and BB ratings. VIX: the implied volatility of options on the Chicago market index for a period of 30 days. Libor IOs: The spread Liboir - Ois measures the relative tension in money markets, the banks perception of credit risk from other financial institutions and the general availability of funds for financing. A high differential can be interpreted as a fall in the major banks intention of lending, while a low differential indicates a high level of liquidity in the market. Europe CDS: 5-year CDS of European countries in US dollars and 5-year U.S. Treasury CDS in Euros (EUR 5Y CDS ZCTO). Euro and spreads: Spread 2yr GE Bund-US Treasury: Yield spread between German 2-year bond yield and US Treasury 2-year bond yield. Euro: EURUSD spot. Stock Indexes: Main European stock indexes, January 2011=100. Surprise Index: Same as US Citigroup Economic Surprise Index but for the European Union. Regional EMBI: Main sovereign risk index for selected LATAM countries. Inflation: Annual inflation rate according to official statistical agencies in selected LATAM countries. Overnight Rate: Short term interest rate; target rate. Industrial Production: 3-month moving average of the year-over-year change in industrial production in selected LATAM countries according to official statistical agencies. Commodities Commodities: Price, in US dollars, of selected commodities. Stock/consumption: Global stock of wheat, soy and corn relative to global consumption of each commodity. Indicator of price movements. Soy – first and seventh contract: Soy price, in US dollars per ton, for the first nearest contract to date and for the seventh contract to date, as well as price spread between both. Industrial grains and oilseed exports: FX liquidations by the oleaginous industry and cereals exporters, in US dollars, according to CEC and CIARA. Equity and Exchange Rate Global equity: Selected stock indexes (Japanese Nikkei, German Dax, Spain, Greece and US S&P 500), January 2011=100 base. Currencies: Spot exchange rate, relative to the US dollar, of selected currencies. Upwards movement in the graph reflects nominal depreciation and downward movement reflects nominal appreciation. Regional Equity: Main LATAM stock indexes, January 2011=100 base. Real Effective Exchange Rate: Evolution of an index that results of weighting the nominal effective exchange rate by the evolution of the CPI’s of Argentina’s main trading partners, according to each countries’ weight in Argentina’s imports. Argentina: Foreign Sector Dollar futures: future dollar market positions Curves for the last observation and for a week, month and year before. Implicit Change in 30-days Futures: variation of the dollar against their future to 28 days. Exchange rate: Blue-chip: implied exchange rate by the ratio between the price in pesos and dollars of Tenaris’ stock in the local and international markets respectively. Blue: dollar exchange rate in the informal market. Exchange rates premiums: Premiums on blue chip dollar and blue dollar. Argentina: Interest rates Lending and deposit interest rates: Private Banks Badlar rate for deposit rates (average annual rates for term deposits of 30 to 35 day period and over a million pesos) and checking account overdrafts for lending rates. Badlar, Lebac y REPO’s: Private Banks Badlar, Lebac (implied interest rates accepted in Lebacs auctions with maturities of 6 months) and REPO’s (REPO’s TNA Assets to a day, total wheel REPO). Badlar rate and Bank liquidity: Banking system’s liquidity, measures as LEBACs+NOBACs+cash at the BCRA+cash at banks+REPOs, and evolution of the Badlar rate. Lebac Placements: Implied interest rates accepted in Lebacs bids. Argentina: Monetary Aggregates Public and private Deflated Deposits: Evolution of the stock of sight and time deposits in ARS and USD, deflated by provincial inflation data. M2 and Private Sector M2: Total and Private Sector M2 transactional aggregate. Reserves: Stock of net and gross international reserves held by the BCRA. Net foreign exchange purchases and reserves: Net purchases of the BCRA at the wholesale FX market estimated by market data and evolution of the stock of international reserves held by the BCRA. Argentina: Inflation Weekly variation: One week average inflation against previous’ week average inflation, according to our National Elypsis-CPI that’s weighted as INDEC’s IPCNu, and to our CABA weighted Elypsis-CPI that’s weighted as CABA’s official CPI. 4-week Variation: Average inflation in the current week against average inflation in the week four weeks before, according to our National Elypsis-CPI that’s weighted as INDEC’s IPCNu, and to our CABA weighted Elypsis-CPI that’s weighted as CABA’s official CPI. Compared Variations: Comparative of weekly inflation according to different sources, including official data. Monthly variations by Items: Monthly variations of different items included in our National Elypsis-CPI.
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