Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 81 (2000) 179–190 Assessment of soil erosion vulnerability in western Europe and potential impact on crop productivity due to loss of soil depth using the ImpelERO model D. de la Rosa∗ , J.A. Moreno, F. Mayol, T. Bonsón Instituto de Recursos Naturales y Agrobiolog´ıa de Sevilla (IRNAS), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cient´ıficas (CSIC), P.O. Box 1052, 41080 Sevilla, Spain Received 22 July 1999; received in revised form 13 December 1999; accepted 28 March 2000 Abstract Soil erosion continues to be a major concern for the development of sustainable agricultural management systems. Sustainability modelling analysis for soil erosion must include not only vulnerability prediction but also address impact and response assessment, in an integrated way. This paper focuses on the impact of soil erosion on crop productivity and the accommodation of agricultural use and management practices to soil protection. From the Andalucia region in Spain, soil/slope, climate and crop/management information was used to further develop an expert-system/neural-network soil erosion predicting model (named ImpelERO). Based on soil tolerance to water erosion, three regression equations were formulated to examine the effects of soil depth loss on crop productivity reduction. Also, a computerised procedure was developed to find a combination of management practices which would minimise soil loss in each field-unit. The overall approach of ImpelERO was applied in 20 selected benchmark sites from western Europe to quantify the soil erosion vulnerability with several crops, the impact of soil erosion on crop production, and the optimum management strategies. In the Mediterranean sites, soil losses reach an average of almost 50 Mg ha−1 per year, the potential impact of soil erosion on the crop productivity was very important (up to 48% reduction in the 2050 time horizon), and the farming practices can be widely modified to protect environmental qualities. The results of this benchmark site analysis of soil erosion, however, must not be extrapolated to large geographical areas without additional spatialisation studies. © 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Water erosion; Quantifying soil loss; Crop productivity; Farming by soil; Expert system; Neural network; Andalucia region; Western Europe 1. Introduction Although soil as a serious and ical distribution roughly known. degradation is generally recognised wide-spread problem, its geographand total areas affected are only This redistribution process of soil ∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +34-954-624711; fax: +34-954-624002. E-mail address: [email protected] (D. de la Rosa). within the landscape must be considered by land and water resource managers in order to evaluate the consequences of their management decisions. Also, it is necessary to separate the ‘current status’ from the ‘future risk or soil vulnerability’. According to the GLASOD study (Oldeman et al., 1991), which reflects the present status of human-induced soil degradation, about 1.5 billion ha are irreversibly degraded by soil erosion process on a world-wide basis. Soil erosion is an increasing phenomenon in Europe (Blum, 1990). 0167-8809/00/$ – see front matter © 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. PII: S 0 1 6 7 - 8 8 0 9 ( 0 0 ) 0 0 1 6 1 - 4 180 D. de la Rosa et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 81 (2000) 179–190 In parts of the Mediterranean region, erosion has reached a stage of irreversibility and in some places soil erosion has practically stopped through lack of soil. With a very slow rate of soil formation, any soil loss of more than 1 Mg ha−1 per year (t ha−1 per year) can be considered irreversible within a time span of 50–100 years. Losses of 30–40 Mg ha−1 in individual storms that may happen once every 1 or 2 years are measured regularly in the European Union, with losses of more than 100 Mg ha−1 in extreme events (Van Lynden, 1994). In order to assess future risks of soil erosion, more precise and quantitative information is needed on the soil attributes, climate variables, present land use and vegetation cover, along with new soil erosion predicting procedures. These predicting procedures must focus not only on the future risk or vulnerability to soil erosion, but also on the potential impact on crop productivity. The relative productivity of soils and its rate of change due to erosion depend on the presence of favourable rooting characteristics in the soil profile. When a soil comes into production, its productivity may remain at a sustained level for some time. If nutrients are replaced and the soil receives good management, the soil may continue to produce crops at a sustained level for an indefinite period. However, as erosion removes the upper soil profile, productivity will decline if the subsoil is limiting for crop growth. Some land evaluation studies (e.g. Hurtado and De la Rosa, 1982; Pierce et al., 1983) consider long-term changes in soil productivity due to erosion, quantifying the change in productivity of different soils, as successive increments of soil depth are lost by erosion. In recent years, scientists working with new approach in agricultural production: farming by soil, precision agriculture, plot specific management or soil tillage research, have provided new research information on pertinent processes related to soil tillage in order to prevent and reduce soil erosion (Robert et al., 1993; Horn et al., 1998). Agricultural management operations according to spatially varying land characteristics have the added difficulty of trying to satisfy multiple, and often opposing, objectives; the best soil conditions for plant growth (crop yield) may not be the best for erosion concerns (natural resource conservation) or pollution effect (environmental impact) (Voorhees et al., 1993). In topographically complex areas, tillage erosion rates appear to be equal or exceed water erosion rates, and soil redistribution by tillage contributes to landscape sensitivity to water erosion (Poesen et al., 1990). In any case, soil survey and land evaluation must be the basic building blocks for developing the comprehensive data set needed to drive these specific soil farming studies. In this paper, an additional development of the recently proposed approach for predicting agricultural soil erosion vulnerability in Andalucia region (ImpelERO model; De la Rosa et al., 1999) was carried out in order to investigate the effects of soil loss on crop yield. Alternative management practices for diminishing soil erosion were also analysed. In addition, the overall approach was applied in 20 selected benchmark sites from western Europe to estimate the agricultural soil erosion vulnerability, along with the potential impact of soil erosion on crop production, and the accommodation of management practices for this vulnerability reduction. 2. Materials and methods 2.1. Study sites, spatial information The input data considered for the modelling and application analyses can be grouped in three categories: soil/slope data, climate data and crop/management knowledge. The ImpelERO evaluating unit is the field-unit as a contiguous tract of land (soil/slope and climate) with uniform land characteristics under a specific land use (crop/management). The spatial pattern of a field-unit is a parcel, as part of a farm, used in this work as a synonym of benchmark site. 2.1.1. Andalucia agricultural area In the modelling area, Andalucia (Fig. 1), natural resources survey data and observed soil erosion and productivity data were collected for the design, training and testing of the ImpelERO soil erosion model (De la Rosa et al., 1999). Since 1990, the Land Evaluation Unit of the IRNAS has selected 34 observation sites throughout the lowland Andalucia region for land characterisation and for productivity and degradation monitoring purposes. Dominant soils datasets, which D. de la Rosa et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 81 (2000) 179–190 181 Fig. 1. Location of the modelling area: Andalucia, and the selected 20 benchmark sites for application within the three biogeographycal regions of western Europe. include soil descriptions and soil chemical and physical properties along with site slope characteristics, were obtained from the SDBm–IRNAS soil database (IRNAS, 1996a). Representative meteorological stations were also selected from the CDBm–IRNAS climate database (IRNAS, 1996b), analysing monthly mean temperature and precipitation for the 1961–1990 period. The agricultural management experience for the field-units was captured from the Andalucia farmers with reference to the following traditional crops: rainfed and irrigated winter wheat (Triticum sp.), rainfed and irrigated winter sugarbeet (Beta vulgaris L.), rainfed and irrigated spring sunflower (Helianthus sp.) and oil and green olives (Olea sp.). The selected field-units cover the whole range of erosion events from what was considered very small to extreme erosion (De la Rosa et al., 1999). 2.1.2. Western European sites In the application area, western Europe (Fig. 1), soil profiles dataset from the EU 12 Soil Map 1:1 000 000 (CEC, 1985) corresponding to 20 selected benchmark sites in Europe were used (Table 1). These selected benchmark sites correspond to three bio-geographical regions: Mediterranean, Atlantic and Continental. The dominant soils per region are: Luvisols and Vertisols in the Mediterranean region, Cambisols in the Atlantic region, and Cambisols, Phaozems and Luvisols in the Continental region. Slope class and form from the soil map unit of each benchmark site were considered. The flat or almost flat and terraced conditions were the dominant slope characteristics. The greatest variability of slope was found in the Mediterranean region, and the smallest in the Continental region. Dataset files on climate data for meteorological stations closer to the selected benchmark sites (Table 1) 182 D. de la Rosa et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 81 (2000) 179–190 D. de la Rosa et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 81 (2000) 179–190 were compiled from the World Weather Disc (WDA, 1994). Almost all the climatic data, monthly means of temperature and precipitation, correspond to the 1951–1987 period. Irrigation surplus of water was not considered in any case. The following cropping systems were considered on the selected application sites: winter wheat, winter sugarbeet and spring sunflower. Table 2 summarises for each cropping system, the agronomic practices which were assumed for all the benchmark sites and used as input data in the ImpelERO model application. The baseline and estimated yields were used to derive the productivity level. The tillage implements sequence, along with the number of times applied and the workability consideration by the farmer, were also established. These management practices, with special 183 reference to the tillage operations, are frequently applied for the selected crops in rainfed conditions. 2.2. Methodology 2.2.1. Soil depth loss and crop productivity Soil depth loss was calculated using the ImpelERO model (De la Rosa et al., 1999). This model was developed as an Universal Soil Loss Equation-type model following traditional land evaluation analysis and advanced empirical modelling techniques. Using expert-decision trees, soil survey information and expert knowledge of the soil erosion process were combined with land and management qualities. An artificial neural-network approach was then applied to capture the interactions between the land and Table 2 Agricultural management practices for farming the testing crops, and assumed to be used in the selected European benchmark sites Cropping system Crop type Residue treatment Tillage system Row spacing (m) Baseline yielda (Mg ha−1 ) Estimated yieldb (Mg ha−1 ) Tillage operation Implement Timec Workabilityd Wheat crop Rainfed Winter crop Grazing Band 0.15 1.5 2.0 Plow moldboard Disk cultivator Fertiliser applicator Drill conventional Fertiliser applicator Spray implement 1 1 1 1 1 2 No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Sugarbeet crop Rainfed Winter crop Buried Traditional 0.60 40.0 45.0 Plow moldboard Spray implement Disk cultivator Harrow-roller Fertiliser applicator Drill conventional Spray implement Fertiliser applicator Field cultivator 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 No No No No No Yes Yes No Yes Sunflower crop Rainfed Spring crop Buried Traditional 0.75 1.2 1.7 Plow moldboard Disk cultivator Disk cultivator Drill conventional Spray implement Field cultivator Disk 1-way 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Mg ha−1 corresponds to megagram (t) per hectare; baseline yield is the actual value of crop production from statistical sources. Estimated yield is the predicted value of crop production by using simulation models. c Number of times that an implement is used. d Workability status makes reference if (yes or no) the optimum soil water content for each tillage operation is considered by the farmer. a b 184 D. de la Rosa et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 81 (2000) 179–190 management qualities and one output, vulnerability index to soil erosion. Crop productivity was calculated by application of the MicroLEIS–ALBERO yield prediction model (De la Rosa, 1996). This soil evaluation model is a regression equation to predict winter wheat yield from several soil characteristics. The X-variables are useful depth of soil, depth to soil hydromorphic features, soil carbonate content, soil salinity, sodium saturation, cation exchange capacity and clay content. 2.2.2. Management practices accommodation On the basis of the expert-system/neural-network structure of the ImpelERO model (De la Rosa et al., 1999), a computerised procedure was followed to find an adequate combination of management practices to minimise soil loss for each field-unit (specified climate and soil characteristics). The procedure formulates up to 64 different management schemes specific to control erosion. Other management practices which referred to plant growth or pollution impact (e.g. fertiliser, seed and chemical application), were not considered. This computerised approach of agricultural management strategies on soil erosion reduction is summarised in Fig. 2. As a first step and for one particular field-unit (fixed land qualities, LQs), the user can establish a percentage of vulnerability reduction (R) of the actual vulnerability index (Va ) in order to calculate the target vulnerability index (Vt ). As a second step, 64 applications of the neural-network (four possible values of the three management qualities, MQs,=43 ) were made in order to calculate the vulnerability index (Vj ) which is closer to the target index. Then, the combination of MQs which corresponds to the Vj was selected. As a third step, the decision trees were backtracked by using the selected combination of MQs to finally formulate the optimum management strategies. 2.2.3. Computer environment The computer program to automate the ImpelERO model application includes the additional development presented in this paper. This software developed in Borland C++ builder for running on PC-platform under WINDOWS 95 and NT environment, along with an installation and user guide, may be obtained free by visiting the MicroLEIS website http:// www.irnase.csic.es/microlei.htm. Fig. 2. General scheme of the automated neural-network-based search and the decision trees backtracking to accommodate the management practices (MQs=management qualities) to a percent of soil erosion reduction, where Va =actual vulnerability index, Vt =target vulnerability index, R=desired vulnerability reduction and Vj =possible vulnerabilities for fixed land qualities (LQs). Also, a generalisation mechanism, which is part of the computer environment developed, allows for better adjustment of the model to regions other than Andalucia. It also offers the possibility to change, in the input data step, the correspondence between the survey parameter values and the generalisation levels considered for the Andalucia region. The future use and validation of this generalisation mechanism, D. de la Rosa et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 81 (2000) 179–190 without additional retraining of the model, would widen the application range to different environments. 3. Results and discussion 3.1. Modelling long-term changes in crop productivity In this paper, the impact of soil erosion on the crop productivity was analysed as a following step of the prediction modelling of soil loss by water erosion already developed for the ImpelERO model (De la Rosa et al., 1999). Following these predicting procedures, the rate of change of the relative productivity of soils due to erosion can be calculated on the basis that favourable rooting characteristics are present in the soil profile. As erosion removes the upper soil profile, productivity will decline if the subsoil is limiting for crop growth. The effect of diminishing soil organic matter and nutrient contents on crop productivity is not considered in this analysis. The concept of soil loss tolerance was introduced in order to give a measurement of how much erosion a soil could tolerate before experiencing excessive damage. In general terms, the soil loss tolerance (T value) is defined as the maximum rate of annual soil erosion that will permit a high level of crop productivity to be sustainable. This T value is considered to range from 1 to 10 Mg ha−1 per year depending upon intrinsic soil profile characteristics (Larson, 1981). According to the profile characteristics of the dominant soils of Andalucia, the soils were grouped as follows: 1. Soil group A (maximum tolerance): corresponds to soils with favourable characteristics to a depth exceeding 120 cm. The deep alluvial soils (Fluvisols) on recent Holocene plains bordering the Guadalquivir River, along with the typical Vertisols on rolling Tertiary hills, are examples of soils in this group. 2. Soil group B (medium tolerance): corresponds to soils with favourable surface horizons but unfavourable subsoils. The useful depth for crop growth is between 75 and 120 cm often due to fine or coarse texture. Soils developed on Pleistocene terraces (Luvisols, dominantly) exemplify the soils in this group. 185 3. Soil group C (minimum tolerance): corresponds to soils with favourable surface horizons and consolidated or coarse-fragment (rock or gravel), hydromorphic and/or extremely calcareous subsoils. The useful depth for crop growth is less than 75 cm. Soils developed on carbonate-rich Tertiary sediments and conglomerate formations in Plio-pleistocene surfaces (Regosols and Planosols, dominantly) are examples of soils in this group. Soil erosion at the rate estimated by the ImpelERO model was simulated for four time horizons: current, 2020, 2050 and 2100. Vulnerability index, soil loss and depth reduction rates are facilitated directly by the model application; and the corresponding three soil depth reductions are calculated using the depth reduction rate. After calculations of soil erosion, crop productivity was calculated at each time horizon by application of the MicroLEIS–ALBERO wheat yield prediction model (De la Rosa, 1996). The predicted yield (PY) was converted to productivity index (Pi) as follows: Pi = PY max (PY) (1) where max (PY) was considered to be 5.5 Mg ha−1 . By using this procedure for the four time horizons, the rooting depth moved down the profile as soils eroded, unless some limiting layer occurred in the first 120 cm or until a limiting layer was encountered. For such soils, that portion of the rooting depth below the limiting layer is excluded from the productivity calculation. In other words, the depth of rooting would be less than 120 cm. For soils with undesirable soil characteristics in the lower portion of the profile, productivity declines as erosion proceeds. In contrast, erosion would not likely impair the productive capacity of soils with favourable characteristics in the lower portion of the profile. Fig. 3 shows productivity changes with three simulated time horizons: 2020, 2050 and 2100, for the 34 testing field-units. For 13 soils with maximum tolerance (Fig. 3, soil group A), an initial productivity index of 0.65 was calculated. While the current erosion rate averages 29 Mg ha−1 per year, the productivity index dropped to 0.62, only a loss of 5%, for the time horizon 2100 of simulated erosion. Soils in this group will continue to produce at high levels for extended periods of time if needed plant nutrients are supplied. For the 186 D. de la Rosa et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 81 (2000) 179–190 Fig. 3. Productivity changes with the time horizon for the 34 testing field-units in Andalucia region. The average soil loss rates were calculated: 29 Mg ha−1 per year for 13 soils of the group A, 16 Mg ha−1 per year for 10 soils of the group B, and 37 Mg ha−1 per year for 11 soils of the group C. three simulated time horizons, the regression equation of productivity reduction in percentage (%) versus soil depth reduction in centimetre (cm) is as follows: Y = 0.22X − 0.36 (r 2 = 0.92; n = 36) (2) For 10 soils with medium tolerance (Fig. 3, soil group B), erosion initially resulted in only slight reductions of productivity. With continued erosion, productivity declined progressively as, for example, roots encounter more and more of the firm, moderately permeable material. An initial productivity index of 0.61 was calculated, with a 12% reduction to 0.54 if the average erosion rate of 16 Mg ha−1 per year continued for the next 100 years. Yield reductions were not uncommon as topsoil depth decreased on soils with unfavourable subsoils. For the three simulated time horizons, the regression equation of productivity reduction in percentage versus soil depth reduction in centimetre is as follows: (3) Y = 0.92X − 0.07, r 2 = 0.98; n = 30 For 11 soils with minimum tolerance (Fig. 3, soil group C), if erosion occurs, productivity was sustained for a short time, but productivity dropped sharply with continued erosion. It was calculated that if erosion continued at its current average rate, 37 Mg ha−1 per year, the productivity index would drop from 0.56 to 0.39, a loss of 30%, at the time horizon 2100 of simulated erosion. For the three simulated time horizons, the regression equation of productivity reduction in percentage versus soil depth reduction in centimetre is as follows: (4) Y = 0.97X − 0.53, r 2 = 0.96; n = 33 3.2. Selecting management practices Along with the modelling of the impact of soil depth loss by soil erosion on crop productivity, the selection of agricultural management practices to minimise soil erosion vulnerability was also analysed. By using the developed computer-based approach (Fig. 2) in Andalucia, agricultural management schemes were formulated for the most representative soils and crops. One of the most repeated schemes with more possibilities to reduce soil erosion vulnerability is as follows: Cropping system: rainfed crops; crop type: annual winter crops; row spacing: low (<0.15 m); residues treatment: buried; tillage system: band or contour; sur- D. de la Rosa et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 81 (2000) 179–190 face roughness: elevate (>25 mm); workability consideration: yes; and soil stabilizers: any. The predicted management schemes were generally in good agreement with results of experimental studies (e.g. De Barros, 1997). This validation test suggests that the management accommodation module of ImpelERO model could be used by farmers to select the best management practices for efficient erosion control. 187 shown in Table 3. The maximum variability of vulnerability index, from very small to extreme, is shown in the Mediterranean sites (2.8–150.0 Mg ha−1 per year of soil loss rate). Sunflower showed the least protection against soil erosion. In contrast, the Continental sites showed very small risk to soil erosion for most of the benchmark sites and crops (1.4–4.9 Mg ha−1 per year of soil loss rate). As validation analysis, these values were rather close to the soil loss average values used by the European Environment Agency (EEA, 1999) in agricultural land of selected countries and during the period 1990–1995: 28 Mg ha−1 per year for Spain (Mediterranean country), and 2 Mg ha−1 per year for Germany (Continental country). The less complex approximation of the CORINE model (CEC, 1992) was also applied to these selected 3.3. Application analysis 3.3.1. Soil erosion vulnerability The soil erosion vulnerability results of the application of ImpelERO model to the 20 selected benchmark sites in Europe for wheat, sugarbeet and sunflower, are Table 3 Results of the CORINE and ImpelERO soil erosion models application to the selected European benchmark sitesa Benchmark site CORINE model ImpelERO model Wheat Sugarbeet Sunflower Vulnerability indexb Soil loss rate (Mg ha−1 per year) Vulnerability indexb Soil loss rate (Mg ha−1 per year) Vulnerability indexb Soil loss rate (Mg ha−1 per year) region 3-high 1-low 1-low 2-moderate 2-moderate 2-moderate 2-moderate 0.57 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.61 0.08 0.84 67.0 3.9 3.9 4.4 78.0 2.8 147.9 0.65 0.15 0.15 0.18 0.70 0.11 0.89 87.3 4.9 4.9 5.9 100.1 3.8 150.0 0.70 0.18 0.18 0.21 0.75 0.14 0.92 99.9 6.0 6.0 7.1 115.7 4.6 150.0 Atlantic region 08 2-moderate 09 1-low 10 1-low 11 1-low 12 1-low 0.29 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 9.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.34 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.05 18.4 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.6 0.40 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.06 29.4 1.8 2.0 1.8 2.0 Continental region 13 1-low 14 1-low 15 1-low 16 1-low 17 1-low 18 1-low 19 1-low 20 1-low 0.04 0.04 0.12 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.11 0.04 1.4 1.4 4.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 3.8 1.4 0.05 0.05 0.14 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.12 0.05 1.6 1.6 4.6 1.4 1.4 1.6 4.0 1.6 0.06 0.06 0.17 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.15 0.06 2.0 2.0 5.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 4.9 2.0 Mediterranean 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Mg ha−1 per year corresponds to megagram (t) per hectare and year. Vulnerability index ranges: 0.00–0.15=very small, 0.15–0.30=small, 0.30–0.50=moderate; 0.50–0.70=large, 0.70–0.85=very large, 0.85–1.00=extreme. a b 188 D. de la Rosa et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 81 (2000) 179–190 Table 4 Results of long-term productivity reduction predicted by the ImpelERO model, in three simulated time horizons, for winter wheat cropa Benchmark Vulnerability site index Mediterranean region 01 0.57 02 0.12 03 0.12 04 0.13 05 0.61 06 0.08 07 0.84 Soil loss rate (Mg ha−1 per year) Soil depth reduction (cm per year) Soil loss tolerance, soil group Long-term productivity reduction (%) 2020 2050 2100 67.0 3.9 3.9 4.4 78.0 2.8 147.9 0.49 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.53 0.02 1.01 Maximum, A Medium, B Medium, B Maximum, A Minimum, C Medium, B Minimum, C 2 0 0 0 10 0 19 5 1 1 0 25 1 48 10 3 3 0 50 2 97 Atlantic region 08 0.29 09 0.04 10 0.04 11 0.04 12 0.04 9.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Minimum, C Minimum, C Maximum, A Minimum, C Maximum, A 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 Continental 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1.4 1.4 4.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 3.8 1.4 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.01 Maximum, A Maximum, A Medium, B Medium, B Medium, B Minimum, C Medium, B Minimum, C 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 3 0 a region 0.04 0.04 0.12 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.11 0.04 Mg ha−1 per year corresponds to megagram (t) per hectare and year. soils (Table 3). By comparing the two sets of model results, ImpelERO and CORINE, it can be concluded that the use of the more sophisticated ImpelERO model gave more accurate and discriminate results in the three regions and for any given crop. 3.3.2. Impact on crop productivity Table 4 shows the application results of the ImpelERO model for each benchmark site, considering the type of soil tolerance (soil group A, B or C) and including the soil loss impact in terms of productivity changes with time horizon (2020, 2050 and 2100). The maximum impact according to the long-term productivity reduction (97%) was shown for the Odiaxere–Albufeira site in the Mediterranean region and for the 2100 time horizon. According to the EEA (1999), the EU Mediterranean countries have severe soil erosion problems, which can reach the ultimate stage and lead to desertification. With the present rates of erosion, considerable areas in these countries may reach a state of ultimate physical degradation, beyond a point of no return within 50–75 years. Some smaller areas have already reached this stage (Van Lynden, 1994). In the Atlantic and Continental benchmark sites the potential effects of soil loss reduction on the productivity reduction was very low (0–5%), with maximum value in Vendays–Bordeaux site. In any site as shown in Table 4, the impact of soil erosion on the productivity was low (2–10%) for soils with maximum tolerance (soil group A). 3.3.3. Accommodation of management practices Table 5 shows the recommended agricultural management for winter wheat to reduce or maintain soil erosion vulnerability in the 20 European benchmark sites using the ImpelERO model. The change of management practices to reduce soil erosion was only feasible in 10 benchmark sites. The actual possibility to reduce the vulnerability index was maximum D. de la Rosa et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 81 (2000) 179–190 189 Table 5 Recommended management for winter wheat to reduce soil erosion vulnerability by application of the ImpelERO model Benchmark Erosion site vulnerability Actual index Possible reduction (%) Management characteristic Row spacing (m) Residues treatment Tillage system Surface roughnessa Workability Use of soil considerationb stabilizers Mediterranean region 01 0.57 9 02 0.12 17 03 0.12 17 04 0.13 8 05 0.61 10 06 0.08 13 07 0.84 5 <0.15 <0.15 <0.15 <0.15 <0.15 <0.15 <0.15 Buried Buried Buried Buried Buried Buried Buried Band/contour-traditional Band/contour-traditional Band/contour-traditional Band/contour-traditional Band/contour Band/contour-traditional Band/contour Elevate-low Elevate-low Elevate-low Elevate-low Elevate-low Elevate-moderate Elevate-low Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes/no Yes/no Yes/no Yes/no Yes/no Yes Yes/no Atlantic region 08 0.29 10 <0.15 Buried Traditional Moderate-low Yes Yes Continental region 15 0.12 19 0.11 17 9 <0.15 <0.15 Buried Buried Traditional Traditional Moderate-low Moderate-low Yes Yes Yes Yes a Surface roughness is the overall value, expressed in millimetres, determined by the operation number and the random roughness of each operation implement used. b Based on farmer estimation (yes or no) of the soil workability status to carry out tillage operations. in the Mediterranean region (5–17% for all the sites), and minimum in the Atlantic region (10% for only Ballypierce–Bunclody site). When the vulnerability index was above 0.29, only a reduction of 10% or less was possible. However, when this index was below 0.12 the reduction increased up to 17%. A reduction was not possible when the vulnerability index was very low (about 0.04). In general terms, the following fall into the most appropriate management strategies to reduce the soil erosion vulnerability: minimum row spacing, no-treatment and burial of the residues, band or contour tillage system, use of tillage implements to elevate random roughness, and the practice of tillage at the optimum soil water content range. Formulation of specific crop management for soil protection of each particular site (farming by soil; Robert et al., 1993) is one of the most interesting facilities of the ImpelERO model. 4. Concluding remarks The effect of soil erosion on crop productivity depends to a large extent on intrinsic soil characteristics present in the Andalucia region. For soils of maximum tolerance which correspond to soils with useful depth exceeding 120 cm, productivity may drop as little as 5%, whereas for soils of minimum tolerance, which correspond to soils with useful depth less than 75 cm, productivity may drop as much as 30% in the time horizon 2100. Agricultural activities, especially those concerning soil tillage, can be accommodated to reduce soil erosion by using expert system/neural-network technologies adapted to erosion prediction risks. An example of these models has been satisfactorily used as an optimisation tool for selecting the land use and management practices for the reduction of soil erosion. According to the ImpelERO model application in benchmark sites of Europe, there is a significant vulnerability to soil erosion in the Mediterranean sites, with a soil depth reduction of up to 1.01 cm per year. However, this vulnerability is much less significant in the Atlantic and Continental sites, with soil depth reduction ≤0.06 and 0.03 cm per year, respectively. In the Mediterranean sites, the potential impact of soil depth loss on crop productivity can reach as much as a 48% reduction in the 2050 time horizon. 190 D. de la Rosa et al. / Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 81 (2000) 179–190 The ImpelERO model gives in the three European regions much more accurate and precise results than the CORINE model. Practical extrapolation of the ImpelERO model application results to large geographical areas would require future spatial studies. Acknowledgements This work was developed as a part of the IMPEL project funded by DGXII of the European Commission, under the Environment and Climate Programme, 1994–1998 (Contract numbers: ENV4 CT950114 and ERB IC20 CT960013; Project Officer: D. Peter; Scientific Co-ordinator: M.D. Rounsevell). The English review of the manuscript by V. 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