2 VI PER Project Euroforgen Presentation PENE Laurent Head of Human Identification Division 1 INPS ● ● ● National Institute of Scientific Police National Agency under the supervision of the General Director of the National Police 5 labs across the country (Staff ≈ 700) Main laboratory located in Lyon Multidisciplinary approach ● ● ● DNA analysis = more than 80 % of the global activity 2 Identity Card of VI PER project ● Internal Project but open to external discussion and collaboration ● Period : 2015 – 2017 ● Project leader for INPS : Lyon Laboratory ● Project coordinator : Laurent PENE ● People involved : IT and Scientist people 2 Goals of VI PER project ● ● ● Set-up a complete framework for post-analytical phase of autosomal STR profiles utilization Development of Statistical training for DNA Experts Harmonization of good practices for all the DNA Experts of INPS ● Huge challenge because we have 40 DNA Experts in the institute 2 Why VI PER project ? ● INPS DNA expert are poorly trained in statistical interpretation Lack of confidence to interpret complex mixtures (3 contributors) Some private DNA experts report complex mixtures (4-5 contributors) without statistical weight ● ● ● Lack of use of validated software tools to interpret DNA mixtures INPS Analytical Method in 2015 ● Quantitation : Quantifiler or Quantifiler Duo ● Identifiler + : 16 loci (Life Technologies) ● France = CODIS Country ● full volume (25 ml) ● 29 cycles ● Electrophoresis Capillary with 3130 XL ● Shift to Megaplex in 2016 ● Globalfiler, Powerplex Fusion 6C, Investigator 24 plex INPS Reporting Evidence in 2015 ● ● ● Calculation of Random Match Probability for single source profiles Manual deconvolution of mixtures with 2 contributors Calculation of LR with DNAMIX (Software developed by Bruce Weir and colleagues) Binary approach Very rarely interpretation of mixtures with 3 contributors ● ● Set-up of a NEW Complete Framework ● Validation with GeneMapper ID-X 1.5 ● Interpretation with : GeneMapper ID-X 1.5 ● LR Mix Studio : semi-continuous model Import in the LIMS (Labvantage – Sapphire) ● ● Improve quality control Reporting statistical weight with Likelihood Index ● ● Validation GeneMapper ID-X 1.5 ● Definition ● ● Selection of electrophoresis peaks which correspond to alleles Classification of Genetic profiles Why Tresholds are useful ? ● To avoid to take in account stutter peaks in probabilistic calculation With semi-continuous model stutters can be consider as drop-in but they decrease the LR value To determine allelic association of a major component of a mixture that can be uploaded to National Databases – ● Tresholds used for classification ● ● Analytical Tresholds ≈ 50 RFU Stutter filters ≈ between 6 and 12 % for backwards and around 2 % for forwards ● Peak height ratio ≈ 60 % ● Ratio between minor peaks and major peaks ● Stochastic Tresholds ≈ 400 RFU ● ● It's more a landmark than a treshold Below this value you enter in a risk area Proposed Classification (1) ● Flat profiles = very low or no analytical signals ● Single Source profile Full profile ● Partial profile Major Component profile ● ● ● Even in mixtures with numerous contributors we try to select the peaks of the major contributor Proposed Classification (2) ● Mixtures profiles ● ● MAD 2 – Mixtures with 2 contributors that can be subjected to deconvolution MAC 2 and MAC 3 : – Mixtures with 2 or 3 contributors that can be use for characterization or comparison Proposed Classification (3) ● Mixtures profiles ● Mixed Profiles Not Interpretable – Too much contributors : > 3 – Weak analytical signal ● For the 12 smaller loci of IDE +, more than 20 % of allelic peaks are below the stochastic treshold (400 RFU) – This category of profile doesn't be used for the interpretation stage Interest of Profiles classification ● ● ● ● N.B : the classification labels are included in GMP allelic tables Conditioning and quality control of alleles imported in the LIMS Monitoring the quality of the casework workflow The classification defines what we can do with the genetic profiles during the Interpretation phase Interpretation of Genetic Profiles ● Definition ● ● ● Deconvolution : determine a minor and a major contributor from a casework profile with or without reference profiles Characterization : determine if 2 caseworks profiles comes from a same individual Comparison : determine if 1 casework profile correspond to a reference profile Characterization of casework profiles (1) ● Characterization is important to give intelligence data to the investigators ● ● ● How many different casework profiles found in one case ? We would like to associate characterization with a statistical weight Same kind of challenge with national DNA database matches between casework profiles Characterization of casework profiles (2) ● Characterization is more tricky than comparison from a statistical point of view Casework Profile Reference Profile Uncertainty Drop-in, Drop-out Good Quality profile = No Uncertainty Casework Profile Casework Profile Uncertainty Uncertainty Interpretation Workflow (1) ● Paper less approach ● Software proposes – Human decides ● Depending of the classification label we choose a software tool ● ● ● Single source profiles = open office spreadsheet to calculate RMP MAD2 = GMP ID-X 1.5 for deconvolution MAC 2 or 3 = LR Mix Studio to calculate LR Interpretation Workflow (2) ● ● Automated transfer of allelic values from GMP ID-X to Spread-sheet and LR-Mix Studio Upload of statistical LR-Mix studio report in the LIMS LR Mix Studio Internal Validation (1) ● We are not statistician : We choose statistical software with model published in peer-reviewed articles Checking simple formula calculation by hand ● ● ● Modification of parameters ● E.G : if you increase theta, the LR must decrease for a true contributor LR Mix Studio Internal Validation (2) ● ● ● Artificial mixed samples with known contributors Analysis of closed cases profiles with the new software with included and excluded contributors Simulation functions is very difficult to validate ● ● Not enough documented in articles or in the manual E.g : Monte-carlo simulations to make dropout sensitivity study Reporting Statistical Interpretation (1) ● ● Large figures are really confusing for investigators and lawyers Order of magnitude is preferable E.g : earthquake Richter scale Reporting of Log (1/RMP) and Log (LR) ● ● ● ● We would like to call this value the Likelihood Index This value will be limited to an interval [-15, 15] Reporting Statistical Interpretation (2) ● Synthetic reporting with tables Profiles Number Hp hypothesis Hd hypothesis Likelihood Index 1 Suspect + Victim Unknow + Victim 12 2 Suspect Unknown 15 The Likelihood index is a statistical value which represents the probability to observe the casework genetic profiles if the Hp is true and Hd is false. The Likelihood Index is comprised between – 15 and 15
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