Housing Demand Analysis
Flint Hills Region
2014-2024
DRAFT
Main Components
1.  Need for a New Housing
Demand Analysis
2.  Past Trends/Current Factors
•  Population
•  Demographics
•  Economic Characteristics
•  Construction
3.  Housing Demand
•  New Households
•  Housing Replacements
•  Vacancy Deficiency
•  Affordability
4.  Summary & Next Steps
Opportunity: Aﬀordability
25%!
45%!
Opportunity: Accessibility
Opportunity: Mobility
Need for a New Housing
Demand Analysis
Need for a New Housing Demand Analysis
• 
Unprecedented growth in Manhattan & Junction City (Census
population estimates) in contrast to rural decline.
• 
Area Comprehensive Plan Updates & Frontiers Regional Plan,
including Fair Housing Equity Assessment/Regional Analysis of
Impediments presents an opportunity to address housing in regional
context.
• 
Increasing demands for high density housing in metropolitan area.
• 
In some areas, older neighborhoods are rapidly being converted to
rental housing and in rural regions, much of the available housing
infrastructure is aging, possibly beyond repair.
• 
Last housing study in Manhattan (Housing Manhattan: Planning for the
Future) was done in 2000 – needs to be updated.
Past Trends/Current Factors
Steady Historical Population Growth
Population Projection 2014-2024, from EMSI Analyst
10-Year Housing Demand
1.  Demand for new households (# of units needed for new residents)
• 
Projected number of new households based on Census numbers.
2.  Demand for replacement housing units (# of units needed to replace
substandard housing)
•  Replacement units = “substandard units” as defined by HUD – those w/o
complete plumbing facilities plus those with > 1.01 persons per room.
3.  Vacancy deficiency (# of units needed to get to healthy vacancy rate)
• 
Vacancy rate of 5%-6% is the statistically-accepted minimum rate required
to allow community have sufficient housing choice.
• 
Deficiency = 5% of total housing units minus existing number of vacant
units.
4. 
Affordable Housing Units (% of units that should be affordable)
• 
How many of the units the region expects to develop over the next ten
years which would mitigate against that deemed un-affordable to citizens
spending more than 30% of their income on housing costs?
Projected Number of New Households¹
Note: Working on a Census Tract level projec7on for this. ¹Projection prepared based on binomial regression of Decennial Census figures from 1900-2010; assumes the 2010 Census rental rate for occupied
housing units in the City, 60.8%, as well as 2010 average household size for the City, 2.30. Figures may not add due to rounding.
Replacement Housing Units¹
Lacking Complete
Plumbing Facilities
Greater than 1.01
Persons/Room
Total Substandard
Units
Renter-Occupied
Households
Owner-Occupied
Households
Total
389
-
-
3,436
-
3,436
3,825
-
3,825
¹From 2009-2011 3-Year American Community Survey (2010) – low range of margin of error for these figures used.
Housing Vacancy Deficiency¹
Renter-Occupied Owner-Occupied
Households
Households
2013 Baseline Housing
Demand
Vacant Units @ 5%
Vacancy Rate
Vacant Units @ Actual
Rate² (1.4% not for sale,
rent, or occasional use)
Housing Deficiency
Total
30,020
35,896
65,916
1,501
1,795
3,296
1,045
1,251
2,296
456
544
1,000
¹Assuming the 2010 Census rental rate for occupied housing units, 60.8%.
²Actual vacancy rate taken from 2010 Decennial Census, “All Other Vacant” percentage, which eliminates units for sale, for rent, or for
seasonal/occasional use.
Affordability Demand¹
Renter-Occupied Owner-Occupied
Households
Households
Total
Cost-Overburdened
Households²
12,800
7,067
Total Households³
30,020
35,896
65,916
Percentage
42.6%
19.7%
30.1%
¹From 2009-2011 3-Year American Community Survey (2010).
²Households where Ownership (SMOCAPI) or Rental (GRAPI) Costs Exceed 30% of Median Household Income
³Househods with housing costs, as defined by the Census.
19,867
Total Housing Demand: 2014-2018
New Households
Housing
Replacements
Housing Vacancy
Deficiency
Total
Affordable Units¹
Renter-Occupied Owner-Occupied
Total
Households
Households
Households
2,344
2,803
5,147
3,825
-
3,825
456
6,625
42.6% (2,822)
544
3,347
19.7% (659)
1,000
9,972
30.1% (3,002)
¹Number of projected new housing units that should be made affordable based on 2010 percentage of renters & owners who pay more than
30% of their monthly income on housing costs.
Projected Breakdown of Demand Based on Current Allocation
of Bedrooms¹
Total
Studio & 1
bedrooms
Renter-Occupied
Households
Number
Percent
6,625
100.0%
Owner-Occupied
Households
Number
Percent
3,347
100.0%
1,085
16.4%
4
0.1%
2 bedrooms
1,043
15.7%
72
2.1%
3 bedrooms
3,829
57.8%
2,227
66.5%
4 bedrooms
667
10.1%
1,044
31.2%
¹From 2009-2011 3-Year American Community Survey (2010). Assumes 2010 distribution of units by number of bedrooms. Figures may not
equal 100% due to rounding.
Projected Breakdown of Demand Based on Current Allocation
of Structure Type¹
Renter-Occupied
Households
Number
Percent
Owner-Occupied
Households
Number Percent
Total
6,625
100.0%
3,347
100.0%
One-Family Detached
1804
27.2%
2970
88.7%
One-Family Attached
723
10.9%
80
2.4%
Two-Family
607
9.2%
14
0.4%
Small Multi-Family (3-4 Units)
586
8.8%
6
0.2%
Medium Multi-Family (5-9 Units)
716
10.8%
4
0.1%
Large Multi-Family (10+Units)
1861
28.1%
5
0.2%
329
5.0%
267
8.0%
Mobile Homes
¹From 2009-2011 3-Year American Community Survey (2010). Assumes 2010 distribution of units by structural type. Figures may not equal
100% due to rounding.
Projected Housing Supply vs. Demand Per Year¹ : 2014-2024
Per Year
10-Year Totals
Supply Demand Diff. Supply Demand Diff.
One-Family Units
495
617
(123)
4,950
6,170
(1,230)
Two-Family Units
50
62
(12)
500
620
(120)
Multi-Family Units
255
318
(63)
2,550
3,180
(630)
¹Supply calculated based on average number of single-family, two-family,& multi-family units permitted per year from 2003-2012;
demand calculated by averaging total housing demand potential by structure-unit type out over 10 years. Figures may not add up due to
rounding. Mobile homes not included in this analysis.
Summary
• 
The Flint Hills Region is projected to grow at around .62% per year for the next
ten years.
• 
The proportion of renters and those aged 20-29 (54.5% & 24.8% in 2013,
respectively) continues to increase.
• 
Rents and home values also increased from 2000-2010, at nearly twice the
national rate.
• 
30.1% of residents spent more than 30% of the median household income on
housing costs in 2010.
• 
The Flint Hills Region is projected to need 4,950 new one-family & 3,050 new
multi-family units to be built in the next ten years. On average, this is around
20% more than has been built in the past ten years.
• 
A continued shortfall of new construction will cause housing costs to continue
to rise, negatively impacting affordability and economic growth and pressuring
areas outside the metro area to contribute to mitigate for the housing shortage.