GNLCC FY15 Funding Allocation Recommended by GNLCC Advisory Team and Review Panel BACKGROUND The Great Northern LCC has $700,000 available for shared science and capacity. A Grants.gov announcement described in detail the funding opportunity, categories for funding and process for selection. The announcement was open from January 13, 2015 to March 13, 2015 (60 days). The GNLCC FY15 Funding Guidance is available at: http://greatnorthernlcc.org/sites/default/files/documents/gnlcc_fy15_funding_guidance.pdf From March-April, proposals were screened for applicability to the GNLCC program according to general criteria and an inter-agency review panel reviewed and ranked proposals according to specific relevance criteria (as described in the GNLCC FY15 Funding Guidance). In late April, the GNLCC Advisory Team considered the panel rankings and discussed the proposals and GNLCC program goals and objectives over a series of conference calls and emails. The following is the final recommendation to the GNLCC Steering Committee from the Advisory Committee. Category A: Tribal Capacity (summaries at end of this document): AT recommends funding 5 proposals at $10K ea Total = $50,000 Category B: Partner Forum Capacity (summaries at end of this document): AT recommends funding 4 proposals at $15K ea Total = $60,000 Category C: Applying GNLCC Science to Management Outcomes Total = $590,000 The Advisory Team (AT) considered the following to develop this recommendation: independent scores of the Review Panel requested dollar amounts of each proposal existing and previous GNLCC funding investments partnership building and collaborative opportunities The AT is providing a preferred recommendation (Option 1) and two additional options for the SC to consider. 1 Option 1 (AT preferred): The AT considers this the preferred option. This option recommends providing partial funding to the 10 highest scoring proposals using a set cap and sliding scale. This supports using a breakpoint in scoring between proposals 10 and 11 as a natural cut off. This Option includes capping all grants at $75K and partial funding for lower ranked proposals. Note: in all 3 options, the J. Gude proposal is recommended at a substantially lower level ($45K) than requested ($360K) commensurate with providing a coordinator and developing the project as a pre-proposal for FY16. Part of the rationale for recommending reduced funding levels (Options 1&2) is to emphasize the partnering aspect of these projects in seeking other supporting partners and the ‘investment’ approach to shared science. Option 2: This option uses an across-the-board 30% reduction of initial request in order to fund the top 10 proposals. There was a substantial scoring breakpoint between proposals 10 and 11 providing a natural cut off. This approach would entail a proportionally equal impact on all proposals and strong reliance on the review process (funding criteria – reviewers – final ranked list). Option 3: In this option, the AT recommended strategic reductions based on funding portions of proposal deliverables. This approach tailors reductions individually but allows for funding of only 8 projects (v. 10 projects for Options 1&2). Savings identified allowed for the addition of one additional project (Connors) at partial level of funding. This option maintains budgets at their requested levels for targeted deliverables but reaches less partners and geographies. Category D: Strategic Science Pre-proposals for FY16: Pre-Proposals were solicited with the expressed intention that a select few would be supported and development facilitated by GNLCC staff for priority consideration in FY16. The Review Panel suggested the top 5 (Counihan, Gude, Muhlfeld, Yu, and Lawler) should be supported by GNLCC. The AT recommends the AT develop a process for consideration of all 7 pre-proposals and a process for evaluating and selecting proposals for FY16. This process may include consideration of proposals from the above list which may be of interest to GNLCC partners but which were not selected in FY15. 2 Recommendation Summary Tables Category A: Tribal Capacity PI Treasure Caplins Title The Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs (CTWS) Climate Change Readiness Program Cross cultural capacity building: Landscape conservation and climate change adaptation with the Blackfeet Nation Rose Yakama Nation participation in landscape scale conservation collaboration within the Great Northern LCC and the Columbia Basin Vatland Climate adaptation planning for Nez Perce fisheries Snow Stoney Nakoda Nation Cultural Awareness Summary Obtain funding to support attendance and travel to climate change related events and trainings. Recommendation $10,000 The purpose of the proposed project is to increase the “cross cultural capacity” (Craig et al. 2012:241) of indigenous and non-indigenous groups to collaborate on climate adaptation in the Crown of the Continent (CoC) a sub-region of the GNLCC area. In order to achieve this purpose, the objectives of this project are to conduct a pilot study 1) to identify the necessary protocols for collaboration between the Blackfeet Nation and government and non-government agencies active, and 2) to identify the priorities of the Blackfeet Nation in climate change adaptation. The outcomes of this project will include both written and presented material on the priorities of, and protocols for working with the Blackfeet Nation, including a widely distributed public brochure, local community presentations, and national academic paper and presentations. The Yakama Nation Department of Natural Resources is currently developing a department-wide Climate Adaptation Plan (CAP). YN staff will be integrating Traditional Ecological Knowledge with current science findings to better prepare their natural resource programs to address future climate conditions. Funding through this grant will facilitate sharing of key strategies between the CAP and the GNLCC Conservation Framework. Here, we propose to improve the capacity of the Nez Perce Tribe to address climate change issues. This grant will facilitate Nez Perce involvement with the Great Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative process and, in doing so, aid in building the foundation of resources and partnerships necessary to enact a successful, long-term climate adaptation strategy for Nez Perce fisheries management. Specifically, this grant will support participation in meetings, workshops, and training opportunities. To provide First Nation cultural awareness of the Rocky Mountain and Eastern Slopes areas, from a Stoney Nakoda perspective, to the Greater Northern Landscapes Conservation Cooperative. We believe that this type of First Nation history of the Rocky Mountain and Eastern Slopes areas, is important understanding historic conservation practices, and cultural uses. $10,000 3 $10,000 $10,000 $10,000 Category B: Partner Forum Capacity PI / PF Waste / Columbia Basin Reuling / Rocky Mountain Title Facilitation and technical support for the Columbia Basin Partner Forum of the Great Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative Increasing the Capacity of the GNLCC Rocky Mountain Partners Forum Heller / Sage Steppe Positioning the Sage Steppe Partner Forum as a pivotal communication tool for Sagebrush Biome conservation implementation Watkins / Cascadia Strategic conservation planning for partner applications in Cascadia. Summary The CBPF is requesting funding to enhance partner participation, collaboration, and product development across the landscape at the intersection of the Columbia Basin and the GNLCC region. GNLCC funds will provide administrative and technical support services, as well as travel support for key partners who would otherwise not participate. The CBPF is requesting funding to enhance partner participation, collaboration, and product development across the landscape at the intersection of the Columbia Basin and the GNLCC region. GNLCC funds will provide administrative and technical support services, as well as travel support for key partners who would otherwise not participate. The Sage Steppe Partner Forum (SSPF) is requesting funding for technical support services to upgrade and enhance the Sage Steppe Partner Forum wiki and engage partners in coordinated sage-steppe conservation planning and implementation. SSPF will enhance communication resources to better serve biome-wide coordinated conservation implementation as four LCCs and partners initiate the Sagebrush Conservation Science Network. The Cascadia Partner Forum requests funding to track and foster implementation and update to conservation design for four Great Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GNLCC) conservation targets underway towards completion currently while initiating conservation design on two new conservation targets (Canada lynx and bull trout) to contribute to Cascadia-wide climate adaptation strategies and provide input and integration to the courser scale GNLCC-wide Science Plan’s established objectives, threats, metrics, and conservation actions for each target. Additionally we propose to continue our work to create a transboundary network of practitioners coordinating to increase the adaptive capacity of the ecosystems and species of Cascadia, while facilitating a Cascadia-wide discussion and identification of spatial priority landscapes that contribute to our resilient landscape vision. 4 Recommendation $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 $15,000 Category C: Strategic Science - Land Management and/or Science to Action PI Title Summary Young (USFS) A rapid range-wide assessment of bull trout distributions: a crowdsourced, eDNA-based approach with application to many aquatic species Tabor (Center for Large Landscape Cons; Shared Landscape Outcomes) Whitfield (Heart of the Rockies Initiative) Conserving an Intact and Connected GNLCC Landscape The bull trout is an ESA-listed species that relies on cold stream environments across the Northwest and is expected to decline with climate change. Resource managers are charged with maintaining bull trout across their range, but monitoring this species is difficult and many populations have rarely or never been sampled. To reduce this uncertainty (and regulatory gridlock), we propose to coordinate a crowd-sourced field assessment of the distribution of bull trout in the U.S. by using inexpensive, reliable environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling. Samples collected by this multi-partner effort can be used to evaluate many other species (e.g., a biodiversity assessment) with no additional field costs and can serve as a multi-species baseline for future assessments. In May 2014, the GNLCC Steering Committee approved a pilot project to coordinate sciencebased management across the GNLCC on the connectivity goal. In this second year, we propose to (1) expand the information in the atlas (to refine existing information, and incorporate avian connectivity, aquatic connectivity, ecosystem processes, and climate change); (2) conduct regional workshops to refine the connectivity implementation strategy and explore actions for climate change adaptation; and (3) follow up on actions identified at the April 2015 managers workshop and approved by the GNLCC Steering Committee. Moskal (U of WA) Mapping wetland hydrology across an ecoregion and developing climate adaptation recommendations Wolverine metapopulation monitoring and connectivity in the U.S. Rocky Mountains and North Cascades Gude (State of MT; WAFWA) Al-Chokhachy (USGS) Landscape Conservation Design in the High Divide. An Analysis of Future Landscape Scenarios and Their Viability--Phase 1 Directing conservation and restoration priorities in the Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout Prioritization Framework Request 138,000 Option 1 75,000 Option 2 Option 3 96,600 $131,000 90,850 75,000 63,600 $82,850 The Heart of the Rockies Initiative (HOTR), on behalf of its High Divide Collaborative partners, seeks support to identify and evaluate future landscape configurations that address the needs of local communities while conserving the High Divide’s unique landscape resources. In this landscape we emphasize wildlife connectivity between large protected core areas: Yellowstone, the Crown, and central Idaho (See attached map). This project builds on our prior GNLCC-funded project to deliver the latest science in connectivity and climate response and earlier stakeholder identification of lands of high conservation value (HOTR 2010). This project takes the next step by coupling socio-economic data and trends with conservation modeling in a holistic landscape conservation design process. The intent of this project is to fill critical information gaps in support of wetland conservation efforts in the CP ecoregion under a changing climate. First, we will provide consistent, wall-to-wall data on wetland location, historical hydrologic dynamics, and projected climate change impacts on hydrologic dynamics. Secondly, we will work with managers in using these data to develop recommendations for climate-smart conservation of wetlands across the CP. 82,000 75,000 57,400 $75,000 88,834 75,000 62,140 $73,834 This project is intended to advance wolverine conservation across the Rocky Mountains and North Cascades in the contiguous United States. It will include maintaining landscape connectivity among occupied wolverine habitats, assessing the feasibility to assist wolverine distribution expansion with translocation, developing and implementing a collaborative multi-state monitoring plan to assess distribution and genetic characteristics of the metapopulation, and engaging key partners at multiple levels to prioritize habitat conservation, population connectivity, and management activities. As part of an ongoing collaborative conservation strategy funded by the GNLCC, we have worked with the Yellowstone Cutthroat Trout Work Group to develop a comprehensive framework for prioritizing conservation of populations of Yellowstone cutthroat trout (YCT). Through this effort, managers have specifically identified potential actions that could be taken to secure and expand populations, particularly in anticipation of climate change. Currently, there remains a paucity of empirical analyses supporting the effectiveness and/or needs of conservation actions, particularly regarding the relative threats to existing extant YCT populations. Here we look to use existing 360,250 45,000 45,000 $45,000 25,551 25,551 17,750 $25,551 5 Sexton (U of Montana; Crown Managers Partnership) Applying GNLCC Science to Coordinated Climate Change Adaptation for a Suite of Conservation Targets Across the CCE Connors (Pacific Salmon Foundation, BC; USFS) Towards developing an interagency stream temperature database and model for BC and northern half of GNLCC Schwend (State of Montana DNR; EPA/CEQ project) Building Large Scale Drought Resiliency in the Missouri Headwaters Basin Ireland (Montana State U.) Evaluating management alternatives to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on whitebark pine ecosystems in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem long-term datasets from two distinct regions within the historical range of YCT to demonstrate the potential risks and benefits of conservation actions and, conversely, inactions (e.g., not addressing non-native species) in the context of climate change. Integrating these results will assist in prioritizing actual threats and perceived benefits and risks from addressing such threats. We are proposing to coordinate and implement separate jurisdictional actions that align to contribute to landscape-scale out-comes. Our Climate Change Adaptation Targets include native salmonids, aquatic invasive species (AIS), terrestrial invasive weeds and whitebark pine. The CMP is using GNLCC-supported science and Rocky Mountain Partner Forum (RMPF) decisionsupport tools to identify and prioritize climate change adaptation strategies and tactics related to our conservation targets, to coordinate implementation of these strategies at a landscape scale, and to foster collaborative learning and adaptive management. Specifically, in the coming year, we will pilot Crown-wide projects to: (i) Reduce vulnerability and increase resilience for bull trout and westslope cutthroat trout; (ii) Address AIS and terrestrial invasive weeds through collective prioritization of targeted management areas and invasive-free areas; and (iii) Initiate coordinated action for whitebark pine protection and restoration, incorporating GNLCC science. This project builds on the CMP’s foundational database in which a shared template, shared science and synthesized baseline data support projects within and across jurisdictions. Stream temperature data will be compiled from federal and provincial government agencies, as well as other data holders in British Columbia which will be housed in an interagency database. Spatial statistical models for river networks like those used for NorWeST will be used with these data to develop a consistent set of high-resolution predictions for all streams and reaches within streams for a pilot area within the Cascadia ecotypic area of the GNLCC (i.e., middle Fraser River and Okanagan River basins). The pilot area work would entail development of technical protocols so that future efforts could be scaled broadly across BC and the northern half of the GNLCC to ultimately provide a consistent set of international stream temperature scenarios for planning and vulnerability assessments for aquatic species. The White House Council for Environmental Quality has identified two national watersheds to pilot large-scale drought resiliency implementation. The Missouri Headwaters Basin within the GNLCC region and High Divide landscape is one of these national demonstration areas, and the GNLCC can advance its collective mission with this opportunity. By delivering science to management and building a learning network among watershed groups, this project will align the large-scale watershed management efforts of the GNLCC with the National Drought Resiliency Program (NDRP) and the Montana Department of Natural Resources (DNRC) to build drought resilience into this important northern Rocky Mountain landscape. Existing climate change science and guidance for restoring and maintaining whitebark pine forests will be evaluated using landscape simulation modeling to inform implementation of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee (GYCC) Whitebark Pine (WBP) subcommittee’s “WBP Strategy”. We will design a “no constraints” management scenario based on the GYCC WBP Strategy and 2015 publication Restoring whitebark pine ecosystems in the face of climate change and incorporating the latest projections of future climate suitability for WBP and other landscape stressors (mountain pine beetles, competing species, wildland fire). We will use the landscape simulation model FireBGCv2 to simulate interactions of future climate, mountain pine beetles, and wildland fire on whitebark pine dynamics under no active management, the GYCC WBP Strategy, and the “no constraints” management strategy. The results of the simulation modeling will be used to evaluate how well these management alternatives will maintain resilient whitebark pine ecosystems into the future. TOTAL 6 88,000 75,000 61,500 $78,000 121,500 48,150 85,000 $78,765 100,000 48,150 70,000 0 69,962 48,150 31,000 0 1,164,947 590,000 590,002 590,000 Category D: Strategic Science Pre-proposals: PI Counihan Title Developing an Integrated Monitoring Framework for the Columbia River Basin portion of the Great Northern LCC Gude Wolverine metapopulation monitoring and connectivity in the U.S. Rocky Mountains and North Cascades Muhlfeld Conserving Native Trout across the Rocky Mountains of the Great Northern LCC: Linking Science and Management Yu Culture and Ecosystems Science Planning Support for the Great Northern Landscape Summary In order for the GNLCC’s landscape conservation goals to be met, managers must be able to measure the effects of their actions and adapt accordingly. To address this need, we will develop an integrated monitoring framework for the Columbia River Basin (CRB) portion of the GNLCC. Our objectives are to develop guidance for how to establish baseline conditions, develop a framework for assessing the status and trends of natural and socioeconomic resources affected by climate change, invasive species, contaminants, and land use management, and how to assess the action effectiveness of conservation actions intended to mitigate landscape scale stressors and achieve landscape scale conservation objectives The objective and tasks described in this pre-proposal will be further developed and refined for the remainder of the current Fiscal Year, and will build upon the capacity building efforts by the Columbia Basin Partner Forum (CBPF) of the GNLCC. This project is intended to advance wolverine conservation across the Rocky Mountains and North Cascades in the contiguous United States. It will include maintaining landscape connectivity among occupied wolverine habitats, assessing the feasibility to assist wolverine distribution expansion with translocation, developing and implementing a collaborative multi-state monitoring plan to assess distribution and genetic characteristics of the metapopulation, and engaging key partners at multiple levels to prioritize habitat conservation, population connectivity, and management activities. This project covers much of the Great Northern LCC (GNLCC) area within the United States and directly addresses many of the priorities outlined in the GNLCC Strategic Conservation Framework (including terrestrial connectivity and all of the target Habitats and Ecosystems in the Rocky Mountain and Sage-steppe ecotypes, and focuses on wolverines, which are a target species) as well as the entire proposed process for directly addressing specific priority GNLCC Conservation Targets outlined in the GNLCC 2015-2019 Science Plan. Human impacts are radically altering freshwater ecosystems supporting native trout in the Rocky Mountains, but our ability to accurately predict the future status of native trout is limited. A unified spatiotemporal analysis of fish population data – an analysis based on observed patterns over time – would dramatically improve understanding of how trout interact with human-induced stressors. We propose to capitalize on existing fish population data collected by various management agencies (all of whom fully support this effort) and new high resolution climate data across the Rocky Mountains of the Great Northern LCC to: 1) use empirical fisheries data coupled with fine-scale climate data to identify mechanisms linking native trout (bull trout and cutthroat trout) to a variety of human-stressors (invasive species, climatic change, and habitat loss); 2) improve forecasting models using empirical relationships based on observed patterns through time; and 3) integrate these efforts to develop and implement consistent and comprehensive vulnerability assessments and risk analyses that will help managers prioritize actions within and between regions. The proposed project is the completion of the GNLCC Cultural Goal, and development of a Culture and Ecosystems Science Plan for the GNLCC. It is organized in two phases: 1) Pre- 7 Conservation Cooperative’s (GNLCC) Strategic Science Program Lawler Climate Refugia: Comparing, Evaluating, Connecting, and Prioritizing Potential Sites Identified with Four Analytical Approaches Ray An evaluation of climate adaptation tools to maintain wetland function and diversity Mahalovich Whitebark pine ecophysiology and adaptive capacity across the US Northern Rockies: Implications for resilience and restoration proposal, submitted here; and 2) Full Performance upon GNLCC approval of full proposal. The project will advance two missions of the GNLCC Conservation Framework: 1. Support Science Development, by identifying and facilitating the development, integration, and application of social and natural scientific information needed to inform conservation actions and sustainable resource management decisions to conserve water, land, fish, wildlife, and cultural heritage; and 2. Effect Coordination, by supporting coordination and integration of conservation science and actions across ecosystems at the landscape scale, leveraging the capabilities of respective agencies/organizations/partnerships. The proposed project will be highly effective in developing a clear strategy with measurable outcomes for conserving landscape scale human dimensions and cultural relationships and the natural systems upon which they depend. The success of this approach depends on close collaboration with best available expertise in tribal, public, and academic sectors. We will use four complementary approaches to map potential climate refugia across the GNLCC region. We will then integrate, evaluate, compare, assess the connectivity of, and prioritize the modeled refugia. Our products will address multiple GNLCC conservation targets (including ecosystems from the alpine to sagebrush steppe and grassland and the majority of the GNLCC terrestrial species targets) as well as the needs of multiple agencies’ management plans by identifying critical areas for safeguarding habitat and maintaining landscape connectivity and process integrity in a changing climate. We propose to evaluate the importance of wetlands to biodiversity in the Greater Yellowstone Area, the Crown of the Continent, and Montana’s Big Hole Valley and to determine whether beaver ponds expand the contribution of wetlands to regional biodiversity and increase their resiliency to climate change. Evaluations will be based on existing NPS and USGS data on wetland area and species richness, new data from novel genetic tools that describe wetland associated biodiversity, and partnerships with land managers who are installing beaver mimicry structures to restore impaired waters. Finally, we will use down-scaled climate models and water balance models to project how climate change is likely to affect wetlands in this region, and to test the efficacy of beaver and beaver mimicry structures to provide low-cost, achievable climate adaptation strategies for wetland-dependent species. (Pre-proposal) This project will focus on the genetic and spatial analysis of 10 years of blister rust resistance, cold hardiness, and drought tolerance (∆13C) data, and δ13C, δ15N, δ34S stable isotopes for upwards of 600 whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) plus trees (healthy, cone-bearing individuals exhibiting phenotypic resistance to blister rust) and their seedling progeny, with a goal to identify the key geo-climatic and edaphic factors driving the spatial heterogeneity. We will synthesize our results into Geographic Information System (GIS) map layers, a seed transfer zone map and submit our findings to peer-reviewed journals. Development of these predictive models and spatially representing the adaptive capacity of whitebark pine will better inform land managers and wildlife biologists where whitebark pine has a higher likelihood of persisting under warmer, drier climates; as well as providing information to the US Fish and Wildlife Service during their status review. 8
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