Productivity growth in Eastern Europe. The role of capital imports and local conditions. Authors: Maite Alguacil Marí (University Jaume I and Institute of International Economics, Spain) Valeriano Martínez San Román (University of Cantabria, Spain) Andrea Éltető (Institute of World Economics, CERS, Hungarian Academy of Sciences) Abstract The recent international crisis and the different recovery patterns of EU member states had raised again the question of competitiveness. In the late nineties, the opportunities for competitive improvements in post-transition economies were based on the foreign capital flows and technology. After adhesion to the EU, productivity gains in these countries still largely depend on their ability for foreign technology absorption and creation. In this paper, we analyze the role of foreign technology (embodied in capital and intermediate goods imports from more advanced countries) as a main driver of technology diffusion and productivity growth in the Eastern European member countries. Particular attention is paid to the sector composition of capital imports, and more specifically on whether the productivity spillovers from the foreign technology adoption are different when looking at manufacturing or services sector. Additionally, as technology diffusion depends on the absorptive capacity, we control for the home country capability to domestically adopt foreign technology, such as the human capital, the level of domestic technology and the relative productivity level. We apply panel data analysis focusing on the period 1995-2012. For a robustness analysis, two alternative econometric approaches (fixed effects and a GMM estimation) have been used to estimate both the level and growth of productivity, respectively. We have also considered the possibility of a different behavior in the absorption capacity of foreign technology depending on economic behavior of countries. To do that, we have splitted the sample in two groups: the Baltic countries and the Central and South Eastern countries. Our results suggest that capital imports are productivity enhancing in the Central and South Eastern European economies, but no evidence of this effect is found for the Baltic countries. We also find that the technology diffusion through capital import is greater in the manufacturing sector than in the services sector. Finally, our estimates confirm the role of local conditions for the productivity performance. Keywords: Productivity; Capital imports; R&D; Technology diffusion; CEECs. JEL classification: C33; F14; F15 Introduction Before and after the adhesion to the EU, the CEE region experienced considerable growth. A major factor behind this growth was the growth of total factor productivity. Benkovskis et al (2013) found that even between 1996 and 2007 productivity growth was generally higher in CEE countries than in Western Europe. Total factor productivity is a complex phenomenon that may be influenced by several factors. In this paper we focus on two main factors: research and development activity (from foreign and domestic sources) and human capital. Research and development activities seem to be main engines for productivity gains. In large and “capital-strong” developed countries, domestic R&D activity is especially significant, either financed by the state and by the business sector. In the case of the CEE countries, however, the lack of domestic capital has been substituted by foreign capital from the nineties on. In certain countries and sectors foreign firms have been financing R&D activity to a large extent or almost entirely. Foreign multinational companies established affiliates and to a certain extent transferred knowledge and technology to CEE economies, thus enhancing productivity. The productivity effects linked to foreign direct investments have been widely described in the literature (see Javorcik, 2008, for an excellent survey). Apart from foreign investments, imported capital goods are also a foreign source of technology diffusion and productivity growth. A country’s productivity thus depends on its own R&D capital stock, but also on the R&D capital stocks of its trade partners. As new technology is embodied in capital and intermediate goods, the direct import of these goods is a channel of transmission (Keller, 2004 and Acharya and Keller, 2009). Indeed there are studies according to which the impact of foreign intermediate imports is more important for smaller countries than larger ones (Barba Navaretti and Tarr, 2000; Keller, 2004). Similarly, Coe and Helpman (1995) find that foreign R&D may have a stronger effect on domestic productivity the more open an economy is to international trade. The magnitude of the spillovers also depends on the local capacity to successfully adopt foreign technology. The assimilation of knowledge spillovers will be greater the higher the absorptive capacity of the host country. For Glass and Saggi (1998), barriers to technology adoption help to explain the income gap between developed and developing countries. Three major determinants have been emphasized as the main local factors that facilitate technology adoption: domestic R&D, human capital and openness to trade (Benhabib and Spiegel, 1994; Borenzstein et al, 1998; and Keller, 2004). According to Griffith et al. (2004), domestic R&D and human capital are key factors for the success in adopting foreign technology when these are employed in “imitative” or “adaptative” research activities. Keller (2004) and Henry et al. (2009) also emphasizes the role played by research and development expenditures and human capital in providing the necessary skills for technology adoption. The extent of technology diffusion may depend also on the technological gap (Benhabib and Spiegel, 1994). From one point of view, the potential benefits from foreign technology transfer will be greater as higher the technological gap is. From another aspect, the degree of success in adopting foreign technology is lower as technological distance increases (Crespo et al, 2002). Adoption of foreign technology was helped in CEE countries by the well educated workforce despite the large technology gap in this region. In this paper, we try a number of contributions. Firstly, we investigate formally the role of capital goods imports as the main drivers of technology diffusion and productivity growth in Eastern European countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia Republic, and Slovenia). Secondly, this paper shows how the link between labor productivity and capital goods imports depends on the absorptive capacity of the recipient country, and particularly on human capital, domestic innovation and the relative productivity level of the recipient country (technological gap). Third, in the evaluation of the productivity impact of international technology transfers through capital imports we have considered two forms of heterogeneity: the sector composition of capital imports and the different level of development of countries. Finally, we adopt two alternative econometric models. On the one hand, an equation describing productivity has been estimated by fixed effects method. On the other hand, a productivity growth model (in line with the growth literature) has been estimated by the system GMM estimation procedure. The use two methodologies allow us to obtain more robust results. References Acharya, R. and Keller, W. (2009): “Technology Transfer through Imports”. Canadian Journal of Economics, 9, 1411-1448. Barba Navaretti, G. and Tarr, D. (2000): “International knowledge flows and economic performance – an introductory survey of the evidence”. World Bank Economic Review, vol. 14 (1), 1-15. Benhabib, J., & Spiegel, M. M. (1994): “The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data”. Journal of Monetary Economics, 34 (2), 143-173. Benkovskis, K., Fadejeva, L., Stehrer, R. and Wörz, J. (2013): “How important is Total Factor Productivity for Growth in Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Countries?” Focus on European Economic Integration, Q1/13, 8-27. Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J. and Lee, J. 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