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BLOOMBERG POLITICS/THE DES MOINES REGISTER IOWA POLL
SELZER & COMPANY
437 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Compared to 402 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.7 percentage points for Democrats
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
Study #2118
May 25-29, 2015
4,161 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list
Methodology
June 1 (Bloomberg) — The Iowa Poll, conducted May 25-29 for Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register by
Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, is based on telephone interviews with 437 registered Iowa voters who say they
definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses and 402 registered voters who say they definitely or
probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses.
Interviewers contacted 4,161 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by
telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter
registration list.
Questions based on the subsample of 437 likely Democratic caucus attendees have a maximum margin of error of plus or
minus 4.7 percentage points, and questions based on the subsample of 402 likely Republican caucus attendees have a
maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the
same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown
here by more than plus or minus 4.7 or 4.9 percentage points, respectively. Results based on smaller samples of
respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register is prohibited.
Poll Questions
BASED ON DEMOCRATIC CAUCUSGOERS
PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.
Now, I’m going to mention some prominent Democrats, including people talked about as possible candidates for
the Democratic nomination for president. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly
favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know enough about the person to answer, just say
so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list, but Obama always goes first.)
Fav
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
G.
Unf
Very
Favorable
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure
Barack Obama, president of the United
States
May-15
Jan-15
89
9
49
40
6
3
2
86
13
49
37
5
8
1
Joe Biden, vice president of the United
States
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
76
20
22
54
14
6
4
78
60
20
34
25
15
53
45
14
19
6
15
2
6
Hillary Clinton, former secretary of state
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
86
12
39
46
7
6
2
84
76
15
19
46
43
38
33
7
8
8
11
1
5
Martin O’Malley, former governor of
Maryland
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
20
8
4
17
5
3
72
13
13
9
9
2
2
11
11
6
7
3
2
78
78
Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from
Vermont
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
47
12
23
24
8
4
41
37
29
12
13
17
10
20
19
8
8
4
5
51
58
Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from
Massachusetts
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
62
9
31
31
6
3
28
58
44
11
11
30
23
28
21
6
6
5
5
31
45
Jim Webb, former U.S. senator from
Virginia
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
22
9
3
19
7
3
69
21
16
11
12
3
1
18
15
8
8
3
4
68
72
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If “Uncommitted” or Not sure in first choice, code second choice as
No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
First
Second
Combined
Joe Biden
8
31
39
Hillary Clinton
57
15
72
Martin O’Malley
2
3
5*
Bernie Sanders
16
13
29
Jim Webb
2
5
7
“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)
6
6
12
Not sure
8
13
No first choice
N/A
14
*“Combined” does not match the following ever/never support question for certain candidates due to rounding.
See next page for tracking.
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If “Uncommitted” or Not sure in first choice, code second choice as
No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
First
Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Martin O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)
Not sure
No first choice
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Second
Combined
8
31
39
9
9
26
19
35
28
57
15
72
56
53
15
15
71
68
2
3
5*
1
-
3
1
4
1
16
13
29
5
3
6
4
11
7
2
5
7
3
1
6
2
9
3
6
6
12
4
3
3
N/A
8
13
6
12
8
5
N/A
14
N/A
N/A
10
15
*“Combined” does not match the following ever/never support question for certain candidates due to rounding.
(Ask only for each candidate NOT answered as first or second choice in horserace.] I’m going to
mention the Democrats who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you
could ever support the person for president or would never support the person for president. (Read
appropriate names. Use same rotation as horserace question. If selected as first or second choice in
horserace, code AC=4 and do not ask.)
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Martin O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
Ever
Never
Not sure
1st or 2nd
choice in
Q.6a/b
37
16
34
23
32
15
9
13
18
13
10
3
48
30
47
39
72
6
29
7
Rotate next two questions.
Regardless of whom you plan to support in the Democratic caucuses, who better represents your political
beliefs, Hillary Clinton or Elizabeth Warren?
Hillary
Clinton
May-15
Oct-14
Elizabeth
Warren
Neither
(VOL)
Not
sure
48
37
3
12
52
26
4
18
Regardless of whom you plan to support in the Democratic caucuses, who better represents your political
beliefs, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders?
Hillary
Clinton
May-15
58
Bernie
Sanders
26
Neither
(VOL)
3
Not
sure
13
I’m going to mention things about Hillary Clinton that have been in the news recently. For each, please tell me
if this is something that bothers you or not—just answer yes or no. (Rotate list.)
I’m going to mention those news items again. This time, please tell me if you think this will or will not hurt
Hillary Clinton in the general election if she is the nominee. Just answer yes or no. (Mark all yeses. Multiple
responses accepted, so total may exceed 100%.)
A.
B.
C.
She kept a private email server and deleted emails she
did not consider related to her service as secretary of
state
How she handled the attacks in Benghazi and the
aftermath
The Clinton Foundation, founded by Bill Clinton,
accepted contributions from foreign governments when
she was secretary of state
None of these/not sure
Not
Sure
Will hurt in
general
election
Bothers
Does not
bother
20
78
2
41
20
73
8
39
27
70
3
37
34
When you think about the controversies surrounding Bill and Hillary Clinton, do you tend to think they just get
a bad rap, or do you think they have shown a pattern of unethical behavior? (Rotate answer options.)
71
14
14
Bad rap
Have shown a pattern of unethical behavior
Not sure