1. business and industrial

First Take
30/04/2015
Companies
BASF SE
Continental AG
Fuchs Petrolub SE
HOCHTIEF AG
Leifheit AG
Linde AG
SHW AG
Ströer Media SE
Recommendation*
Price target*
Hold
Buy
Sell
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
98.00 EUR
210.00 EUR
34.00 EUR
80.00 EUR
60.00 EUR
195.00 EUR
52.00 EUR
41.00 EUR
Disclaimer
Page
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
* as per last working day
Bankhaus Lampe Düsseldorf, +49 (0)211 4952 -607, [email protected]
See end of document for more details.
BANKHAUS LAMPE // 2
BASF SE
Strong Chemicals results in Q1
30/04/2015
Hold
98.00 EUR
Close (29/04/2015)
89.07 EUR
Bloomberg: BAS
WKN: BASF11
Sector
Chemicals
Share price performance
52 week high
96.72
52 week low
65.61
Compared to
DAX
YTD
10.9%
1 month
-0.1%
12 months
5.1%
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• BASF reported good quality Q1 results with significantly better-than-expected
earnings in its Chemicals activities and in Agricultural Solutions.
• EBIT before special items in Oil & Gas was higher than expected as well, but this,
in our view, was mainly driven by a one-off impact in Natural Gas Trading.
• The Others segment was significantly impacted by an increase in provisions for
the long-term incentive programme and therefore showed much higher costs
than expected.
• A higher-than-expected tax rate led to a miss in EPS.
• Operating cash flow was strong and improved 37%; the FCF increased by
€ 350 m.
Q1 2015e (BHL)
Q1 2015
in EUR m
Sales
20,067
19,317
EBIT
1,995
1,875
EBIT before special items
2,070
1,990
EPS (in €), adjusted
1.43
1.58
Source: Company information, Bankhaus Lampe Research
% yoy
Q1 2014
19,512
2,221
2,112
1.62
2.8%
-10.2%
-2.0%
-11.7%
FIRST TAKE
• The operating results for Q1 were strong, in our view, and of good quality.
• As expected, BASF reiterated the guidance for 2015.
• A conference call will start at 8:30 CET.
Share data
Market Cap (m EUR)
81,809
No. of shares (m)
918
Free float
100.0%
Trading vol. Ø (m EUR)
199.8
in m EUR
Next event
24/07/2015
Quarterly Results
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
Sales
73,973
74,326
76,037
78,471
80,904
EBIT
7,160
7,626
7,451
8,121
8,738
EBIT margin
9.7%
10.3%
9.8%
10.3%
10.8%
12,563
13,647
13,561
12,319
9,827
2,106
2,462
2,519
3,763
5,100
5.22
5.61
5.42
5.97
6.47
Net financial debt
Free cash-flow
EPS (in EUR)
DPS (in EUR)
2.70
2.80
2.90
3.00
3.20
Analyst
Dividend yield
3.5%
4.0%
3.3%
3.4%
3.6%
Heiko Feber, Analyst
EV/Sales
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.3
1.2
Phone: +49 (0)211 4952-413
EV/EBIT
12.3
11.2
13.9
12.6
11.4
[email protected]
Price Earnings ratio (P/E)
14.8
12.5
16.4
14.9
13.8
See end of document for disclaimer.
Source: Company information, Bankhaus Lampe Research estimates
First Take 30/04/2015
BANKHAUS LAMPE // 3
Continental AG
Q1 headline figures out - earnings in line
30/04/2015
Buy
210.00 EUR
Close (29/04/2015)
213.20 EUR
Bloomberg: CON
WKN: 543900
Sector
Automotive
Share price performance
52 week high
231.35
52 week low
139.00
Compared to
DAX
YTD
4.9%
1 month
1.5%
12 months
-0.7%
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• The sales figures were surprisingly strong, most likely due to positive FX effects.
• The adj. EBIT was more or less in line with our forecasts and street expectations.
• Integration costs and one-off expenses for Veyance burdened the results by
€ 37 m
• Conti considers its start to the year to be very encouraging as the end markets
were only sluggish in its view. We expect an improvement of the replacement
tyre market in Europe as well as an uptick in European car production in the
months ahead
• Conti sales and earnings are expected to improve in the coming quarters,
according to CEO Degenhart
Continental [Mio. €]
Sales
pQ1 2015
9.600
Automotive
Rubber Group
EBIT adj.
EBIT adj.-Marge
EBIT
EBIT-Marge
Net income (after min.)
EPS [€]
BHL
Consensus
Q1 2015e
9.092
5.494
Q1 2015e
9.285
5.602
Q1 2014
% yoy
8.375
5.129
14,6%
3.557
1.017
11,2%
979
10,8%
644
3,22
3.698
1.048
11,3%
1.000
10,8%
640
3,20
3.271
937
11,2%
889
10,6%
574
2,87
1.000
10,4%
0,0%
-
na
na
6,7%
-0,8 PP
-100,0%
-10,6 PP
na
na
Source: Company information, Bankhaus Lampe Research
Share data
Market Cap (m EUR)
42,641
No. of shares (m)
200
Free float
FIRST TAKE
• This is a solid start to the year and the company is on track to meet its FY
guidance, but we currently see no reason to increase our estimates significantly.
• We are leaving our estimates, rating and PT unchanged until next week.
• More details are due to follow when the full set of figures is published on
Thursday, 7 May 2015.
54.0%
Trading vol. Ø (m EUR)
82.8
in m EUR
Next event
07/05/2015
Quarterly Results
2012
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
Sales
32,736
33,331
34,496
37,978
40,757
EBIT
3,186
3,264
3,391
4,045
4,389
EBIT margin
9.7%
9.8%
9.8%
10.7%
10.8%
Net financial debt
5,754
4,558
3,039
3,312
2,031
Free cash-flow
1,653
1,818
2,013
309
1,927
9.53
9.62
11.97
13.04
14.37
EPS (in EUR)
DPS (in EUR)
2.25
2.50
3.00
3.30
3.60
Analyst
Dividend yield
2.6%
1.6%
1.7%
1.5%
1.7%
Christian Ludwig, CFA
EV/Sales
0.8
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.2
Phone: +49 (0)211 4952-126
EV/EBIT
8.2
12.0
12.0
12.0
10.8
[email protected]
Price Earnings ratio (P/E)
9.2
16.6
14.7
16.4
14.8
See end of document for disclaimer.
Source: Company information, Bankhaus Lampe Research estimates
First Take 30/04/2015
BANKHAUS LAMPE // 4
Fuchs Petrolub SE
Q1 benefits from FX effects
30/04/2015
Sell
34.00 EUR
Close (29/04/2015)
Bloomberg: FPE3
Sector
38.36 EUR
WKN: 579043
Basic Resources
Share price performance
52 week high
39.93
52 week low
26.76
Compared to
MDAX
YTD
-4.9%
1 month
12 months
2.0%
-4.3%
FIRST TAKE
• The Q1 results are decent, in our view, although the margin is slightly
disappointing.
• The improved outlook for FY 2015 is in line with our expectations for a sales
increase of 7.1% and an increase in EBIT of 7.7%.
• Fuchs Petrolub will hold a conference call today at 14:30 CET.
Share data
Market Cap (m EUR)
No. of shares (m)
Free float
Trading vol. Ø (m EUR)
5,120
71
100.0%
5.1
Next event
06/05/2015
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Fuchs Petrolub benefited from positive FX effect in Q1 and therefore showed
higher-than-expected sales compared to consensus expectations.
• The EBIT beat consensus expectations and slightly missed BHLe.
• The main disappointment in our view is the EBIT margin of only 16.6%. We had
expected 17% and the consensus forecast 16.9%.
• Fuchs Petrolub has become more optimistic for FY 2015. Should the euro remain
weak, EBIT and earnings after tax are expected to increase by a mid to higher
single-digit percentage. Up until now, the company projected low single-digit
growth.
• In terms of free cash flow, Fuchs Petrolub reiterated its expectation that it should
once again exceed € 150 m.
AGM
in m EUR
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
Sales
1,832
1,866
1,998
2,078
2,161
EBIT
EBIT margin
Net financial debt
312
313
337
352
367
17.1%
16.8%
16.9%
17.0%
17.0%
-167
-186
-260
-368
-485
Free cash-flow
150
188
183
228
243
EPS (in EUR)
1.54
1.58
1.68
1.76
1.83
DPS (in EUR)
0.70
0.77
0.85
0.90
0.95
Analyst
Dividend yield
2.0%
2.3%
2.2%
2.3%
2.5%
Heiko Feber, Analyst
EV/Sales
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.2
Phone: +49 (0)211 4952-413
EV/EBIT
14.6
14.3
14.5
13.6
12.7
[email protected]
Price Earnings ratio (P/E)
23.1
21.1
22.8
21.8
21.0
See end of document for disclaimer.
Source: Company information, Bankhaus Lampe Research estimates
First Take 30/04/2015
BANKHAUS LAMPE // 5
HOCHTIEF AG
CIMIC (previously Leighton) again the profit earner
30/04/2015
Buy
80.00 EUR
Close (29/04/2015)
Bloomberg: HOT
Sector
69.16 EUR
WKN: 607000
Construction
Share price performance
52 week high
74.08
52 week low
53.00
Compared to
MDAX
YTD
-1.9%
1 month
-1.3%
12 months
2.6%
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Leighton has changed its name to CIMIC (Construction, Infrastructure, Mining
and Concessions) in an attempt to distance itself from corruption allegations. The
business remains the profit earner within Hochtief.
• CIMIC (HOT Asia-Pacific) contributed € 108.8 m, or 72%, to group EBT (€ 151.2 m).
• There was more good news: The other two regions (Americas doubled EBT) were
also successful in improving their earnings in the first quarter (see table below).
• Hochtief confirmed its outlook for FY 2015 today including growth of 15-35% in
underlying net profit from € 190 m in 2014 to € 220-260 m.
• Strategy remains unchanged: de-risk the balance sheet and improve earnings
quality in all three regions. In Q1, margins improved in all regions, and we
therefore believe that Hochtief is on track to achieving its targets.
• According to ACS’s CEO Florentino Perez, Marcelino Fernandez Verdes might
return to ACS after the successful streamlining at Hochtief and CIMIC. He would
make a good successor to Perez at ACS, in our view, although Perez does not
appear to be ready for retirement.
BHL
Hochtief AG [€ m]
Sales
EBT total operating
EBT - Americas operating
EBT - Asia / Pacific operating
EBT - Europe operating
EBT-margin
Net income (after min.) operating
EPS [€]
Q1 2015
5058,9
151,2
46,4
108,8
2,4
3,0%
60,1
0,88
Q1 2015e
5065,5
144,6
36,8
110,8
2,0
2,9%
50,5
0,73
Q1 2014
4881,5
99,5
22,7
84,4
-7,7
2,0%
41,7
0,60
% yoy
3,6%
45,3%
62,1%
31,3%
>-100%
1 PP
44,1%
46,7%
Source: Company information, Bankhaus Lampe Research,
Share data
Market Cap (m EUR)
No. of shares (m)
Free float
Trading vol. Ø (m EUR)
4,793
69
27.9%
6.2
FIRST TAKE
• On 6 May, the AGM is to decide on extending the share buy-back programme as
well as the dividend proposal of € 1.90 (incl. € 0.20 bonus). These factors should
support the equity story going forward.
• The strong start to the year fully supports our BUY rating and our PT of € 80.00.
in m EUR
Next event
06/05/2015
AGM
Sales
EBT
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
22,499
22,099
23,904
24,597
25,580
530
-177
478
553
575
EBT margin
2.4%
-0.8%
2.0%
2.2%
2.2%
Net financial debt
-220
557
-822
-829
-850
Free cash-flow
858
576
1,514
148
163
EPS (in EUR)
2.37
3.64
3.33
4.00
4.29
DPS (in EUR)
1.50
1.90
2.00
2.00
2.20
Analyst
Dividend yield
2.4%
3.2%
2.9%
2.9%
3.2%
Marc Gabriel, CIIA, CEFA
EV/Sales
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
Phone: +49 (0)211 4952-313
EV/EBT
10.4
-33.4
11.1
9.5
9.1
[email protected]
Price Earnings ratio (P/E)
26.1
16.1
20.8
17.3
16.1
See end of document for disclaimer.
Source: Company information, Bankhaus Lampe Research estimates
First Take 30/04/2015
BANKHAUS LAMPE // 6
Leifheit AG
Ad-hoc supports BUY case
30/04/2015
Buy
60.00 EUR
Close (29/04/2015)
48.35 EUR
Bloomberg: LEI
WKN: 646450
Sector
Consumer
Share price performance
52 week high
59.66
52 week low
35.50
Compared to
Prime All Share
YTD
-12.3%
1 month
-1.3%
12 months
-7.3%
Share data
Market Cap (m EUR)
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Yesterday afternoon, Leifheit published an ad hoc and increased its EBIT guidance
for 2015 on the back of the Q1 performance.
• The company is now targeting an EBIT of between € 19 m and € 20 m. Up to now
it had assumed that group earnings would be in line with the previous year’s
adjusted result of € 16.4 m.
• The numbers show that the guidance increase was mainly driven by foreign
exchange rates as the performance of the US dollar led to a foreign-exchange
result of € 3.2 m in Q1 2015 (Q1 2014: € 0.1 m).
• Nevertheless the adj. EBIT increased by € 0.4 m to € 4.3 m, which leads to a
margin improvement as we assume a 3.8% turnover increase in Q1 driven by
brand business.
• The turnover forecast for 2015 remains unchanged. Leifheit expects turnover
growth of 2-3% (BHLe: 2.5%).
FIRST TAKE
• As our economists forecast an average EUR/USD of close to 1.15 for 2015, we
believe that the positive dollar effect for Leifheit in 2015 will be around € 2 m.
• Today, we feel fine with our current EBIT forecast for 2015 of € 19 m including
the aforementioned € 2 m result from foreign-exchange rates.
• This ad-hoc should support our BUY rating due to the guidance upgrade, but
more important for us is that the adj. EBIT outgrew sales, which leads to margin
improvements at the group level.
• Our valuation is equally based on our DCF model and the results of our cashflow-yield model. Even though the share is too expensive in terms of the
traditional multiples (EV/EBIT, PER), the dividend (current yield 3.7%) and the
expectation of higher pay-outs make the share appear an attractive proposition.
230
No. of shares (m)
5
Free float
76.8%
Trading vol. Ø (m EUR)
0.21
in m EUR
Next event
12/05/2015
Quarterly Results
Sales
EBIT
EBIT margin
Net financial debt
Free cash-flow
EPS (in EUR)
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
221
221
226
238
249
15
22
19
20
22
6.8%
9.8%
8.3%
8.6%
8.8%
-51
-59
-64
-64
-63
23
15
12
9
9
2.16
2.97
2.55
2.78
3.02
DPS (in EUR)
1.65
1.80
1.95
2.10
2.25
Analyst
Dividend yield
5.3%
3.9%
4.0%
4.3%
4.7%
Christoph Schlienkamp, Investmentanalyst DVFA
EV/Sales
0.7
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
Phone: +49 (0)211 4952-311
EV/EBIT
10.2
10.7
12.5
11.5
10.8
[email protected]
Price Earnings ratio (P/E)
14.3
15.6
18.9
17.4
16.0
See end of document for disclaimer.
Source: Company information, Bankhaus Lampe Research estimates
First Take 30/04/2015
BANKHAUS LAMPE // 7
Linde AG
Strong FX benefits in Q1
30/04/2015
Hold
195.00 EUR
Close (29/04/2015)
Bloomberg: LIN
173.65 EUR
WKN: 648300
Sector
Chemicals
Share price performance
52 week high
193.85
52 week low
144.30
Compared to
DAX
YTD
-4.0%
1 month
-4.4%
12 months
-4.7%
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Linde’s Q1 results are slightly below expectations, mainly due to the Others
segment.
• Margins of 27.5% in Gases and 8.5% in Engineering are in line with BHL
forecasts. These results are higher than the consensus estimates for Gases and
lower in Engineering.
• Linde reiterated its guidance for FY 2015: Sales of € 18.2 - 19.0 bn and adjusted
EBITDA of € 4.1 - 4.3 bn.
BHL
Q1 2015
Q1 2015e
Linde AG [€ m]
Sales
4,398
4,351
EBITDA
993
1,011
EBITDA-margin
22.6%
23.2%
EBIT
523
544
EBIT-margin
11.9%
12.5%
Net income (reported)
300
309
EPS [€], adjusted
1.69
1.92
Source: Company information, Factset, Bankhaus Lampe Research
Q1 2014
% yoy
8.7%
7.1%
-0.3 PP
1.0%
-0.9 PP
3.4%
-4.0%
4,045
927
22.9%
518
12.8%
290
1.76
FIRST TAKE
• With the operating results in line with BHL estimates, we reiterate our HOLD
rating.
• Linde will host a conference call today at 14:00 CET.
Share data
Market Cap (m EUR)
No. of shares (m)
Free float
Trading vol. Ø (m EUR)
in m EUR
32,238
186
100.0%
59.3
Sales
EBIT
12/05/2015
Analyst
AGM
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
17,047
18,547
19,660
20,643
2,171
1,885
2,332
2,771
2,911
13.0%
11.1%
12.6%
14.1%
14.1%
Net financial debt
8,229
8,198
7,735
6,849
5,983
Free cash-flow
1,620
938
1,048
1,537
1,582
7.10
5.94
7.52
9.34
10.12
EBIT margin
EPS (in EUR)
Next event
2013
16,655
DPS (in EUR)
3.00
3.15
3.50
3.85
4.00
Dividend yield
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.2%
2.3%
Heiko Feber , Analyst
EV/Sales
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.0
Phone: +49 (0)211 4952-413
EV/EBIT
17.6
20.7
18.1
14.9
13.9
[email protected]
Price Earnings ratio (P/E)
21.4
26.0
23.1
18.6
17.2
See end of document for disclaimer.
Source: Company information, Bankhaus Lampe Research estimates
First Take 30/04/2015
BANKHAUS LAMPE // 8
SHW AG
Q1 figures in line with expectations
30/04/2015
Buy
52.00 EUR
Close (29/04/2015)
Bloomberg: SW1
Sector
41.33 EUR
WKN: A1JBPV
Automotive
Share price performance
52 week high
49.15
52 week low
29.80
Compared to
SDAX
YTD
-6.0%
1 month
-8.4%
12 months
-16.7%
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Solid set of results and largely in line with our expectations; EBITDA/EBIT even
slightly better.
• Order intake increased by 6% to € 118.8 m (b-2-b: 1.0x).
• In the Pumps & MC divisions, the passenger car business grew by 18% while the
industrial part declined slightly by ~4%. The EBITDA margin improved to 10%
from 9.3% a year ago. Nevertheless, a less favourable product mix prevented an
even higher margin.
• In the brake disc division, the EBITDA margin climbed from 7.2% to 8.7%
• Free CF came in negative at € -18.8 m due to some WCap build-up as well as a
payment of € 8.9 m to the Chinese JV partner for the brake disc business.
• SHW reiterated the FY guidance: sales of ~ € 460 m and an adj. EBITDA of
between € 46 m and € 50 m.
BHL
SHW [€ m]
Sales
Pumps & EC
Brake Discs
EBITDA
Q1 2015
Q1 2015e
Q1 2014
% yoy
117,0
92,5
24,5
11,0
116,0
92,0
24,0
10,7
104,8
80,6
24,2
8,8
11,6%
EBITDA-margin
EBIT
EBIT-margin
Net income
EPS [€]
9,4%
6,1
5,2%
4,1
0,67
9,2%
5,7
4,9%
3,9
0,64
14,8%
1,0%
24,9%
8,4%
4,8
4,6%
3,2
0,55
1 PP
25,6%
0,6 PP
26,1%
21,0%
Source: Company information, Bankhaus Lampe Research
Share data
Market Cap (m EUR)
No. of shares (m)
Free float
Trading vol. Ø (m EUR)
263
6
100.0%
FIRST TAKE
• As expected, SWH delivered a solid start to the year but some of the 2014 issues
still remain: Very high demand led to additional cost for extra shifts and logistics
especially in the powder metallurgy business.
• No change to estimates required, more details after the CC at 14:00 CET.
0.64
in m EUR
Next event
12/05/2015
AGM
Sales
EBIT
EBIT margin
Net financial debt
Free cash-flow
EPS (in EUR)
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
366
430
465
501
532
21
17
29
36
41
5.6%
3.9%
6.3%
7.1%
7.7%
3
14
4
5
-3
0
-6
-8
6
16
2.30
1.82
3.23
4.02
4.42
DPS (in EUR)
1.00
1.00
1.10
1.40
1.50
Analyst
Dividend yield
2.2%
2.7%
2.7%
3.4%
3.6%
Christian Ludwig, CFA
EV/Sales
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Phone: +49 (0)211 4952-126
EV/EBIT
14.5
15.6
10.1
8.5
7.2
[email protected]
Price Earnings ratio (P/E)
20.2
20.2
12.8
10.3
9.4
See end of document for disclaimer.
Source: Company information, Bankhaus Lampe Research estimates
First Take 30/04/2015
BANKHAUS LAMPE // 9
Ströer Media SE
Feedback from CMD
30/04/2015
Buy
41.00 EUR
Close (29/04/2015)
34.69 EUR
Bloomberg: SAX
WKN: 749399
Sector
Media
Share price performance
52 week high
35.52
52 week low
12.40
Compared to
Prime All Share
YTD
23.8%
1 month
12.8%
12 months
27.2%
Share data
Market Cap (m EUR)
1,695
No. of shares (m)
49
Free float
40.0%
Trading vol. Ø (m EUR)
KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Ströer held its CMD in Berlin yesterday and focused strongly on the digital
strategy. The CMD was well attended with roughly 60 participants.
• Ströer for the first time introduced a mid-term guidance expecting sales of
€ 1 bn by 2017 (BHLe € 913 m) and an EBITDA margin of 22-23%. Two thirds of
this growth should be derived organically. 50% of sales should come from digital
by 2020.
• Ströer's big advantage versus other marketers is that it mainly markets thirdparty content while most other marketers (e.g. Axel Springer or Interactive
Media) market their own content. However, we expect Ströer to cautiously build
up its asset portfolio and thereby increase margins in the digital segment.
• Ströer introduced a new segment reporting (OOH Germany, Digital, OOH
international). In this new reporting, Public Video will be included in the Digital
segment rather than the German OOH segment. With this move, Ströer intends to
increase transparency, particularly with regard to the highly profitable public
video segment.
• Ströer is the only provider of public video. Ströer holds an exclusive agreement
with Dt. Bahn until 2025, so we see only limited risk of rising competition in this
field.
• Ströer made clear that it looking for potential acquisition targets. However, if it
does not find suitable targets, it would not rule out a special dividend. The
company does not believe that reducing net debt/EBITDA to below 1.5x would
any sense. In terms of new acquisitions, the company is aiming for a ROCE of at
least 15% (in line with the overall business).
FIRST TAKE
• Overall, the CMD confirmed our positive view of the company. We reiterate our
Buy rating.
• We see the new medium-term guidance as a sign of management's confidence in
the success of the current strategy.
2.1
in m EUR
Next event
13/05/2015
Quarterly Results
Sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin
Net financial debt
Free cash-flow
EPS (in EUR)
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
622
721
807
858
913
109
134
171
184
197
17.5%
18.6%
21.2%
21.4%
21.6%
358
302
240
181
117
4
65
82
86
95
0.08
0.44
0.98
1.20
1.43
DPS (in EUR)
0.10
0.40
0.56
0.64
0.72
Analyst
Dividend yield
0.8%
1.6%
1.6%
1.8%
2.1%
Alexandra Schlegel
EV/Sales
0.8
2.2
2.5
2.2
2.0
Phone: +49 (0)211 4952 328
EV/EBITDA
4.3
11.6
11.6
10.5
9.4
[email protected]
Price Earnings ratio (P/E)
161.3
55.7
35.4
28.8
24.2
See end of document for disclaimer.
Source: Company information, Bankhaus Lampe Research estimates
First Take 30/04/2015
BANKHAUS LAMPE // 10
Disclaimer
Analyst declaration
The relevant research analysts, as named on the front cover of this research report, certify that (a) all of the views expressed in this research report accurately
reflect their personal views about the securities and companies mentioned in this research report; and (b) that no part of their compensation was, is or will be
directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views expressed by them in this research report.
Rating system
Shares are rated based upon analyst forecasts with regard to the performance of the share during a period of twelve months. The rating “Buy” within this
general concept means that the share’s forecast performance is at least 10%. “Hold” means a price movement in a bandwidth of 0% to 10%. “Sell” means that
the share’s forecast performance is negative.
Explanation of valuation
Unless shown otherwise, the stated upside targets are based upon either a discounted cash-flow pricing or upon a comparison of the performance ratios of
companies that the respective analyst considers to be comparable, or upon a combination of these two analyses. Analysts modify the result of this
fundamental assessment to incorporate the potential trend in market sentiment.
Overview of changes in our recommendations/price targets in the previous twelve months for: BASF SE (BAS GY), Close
(29/04/2015): 89.07 EUR, Analyst: Heiko Feber (Analyst).
Date of publication
17/04/2015
24/02/2015
16/12/2014
08/07/2014
02/05/2014
Price at recommendation
Rating
Price target
91.35 EUR
83.56 EUR
67.08 EUR
86.07 EUR
83.43 EUR
Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
98.00 EUR
94.00 EUR
86.00 EUR
95.00 EUR
90.00 EUR
Overview of changes in our recommendations/price targets in the previous twelve months for: Continental AG (CON GY),
Close (29/04/2015): 213.20 EUR, Analyst: Christian Ludwig (CFA).
Date of publication
05/05/2014
Price at recommendation
Rating
Price target
166.30 EUR
Buy
210.00 EUR
Overview of changes in our recommendations/price targets in the previous twelve months for: Fuchs Petrolub SE (FPE3
GY), Close (29/04/2015): 38.36 EUR, Analyst: Heiko Feber (Analyst).
Date of publication
22/04/2015
18/02/2015
13/11/2014
04/08/2014
06/05/2014
Price at recommendation
Rating
Price target
39.43 EUR
39.39 EUR
31.89 EUR
29.81 EUR
35.63 EUR
Sell
Sell
Hold
Hold
Sell
34.00 EUR
32.00 EUR
32.00 EUR
30.00 EUR
30.00 EUR
First Take 30/04/2015
BANKHAUS LAMPE // 11
Overview of changes in our recommendations/price targets in the previous twelve months for: HOCHTIEF AG (HOT GY),
Close (29/04/2015): 69.16 EUR, Analyst: Marc Gabriel (CIIA, CEFA).
Date of publication
26/02/2015
20/02/2015
13/11/2014
23/07/2014
Price at recommendation
Rating
Price target
68.13 EUR
69.09 EUR
58.20 EUR
64.93 EUR
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
80.00 EUR
77.00 EUR
70.00 EUR
70.00 EUR
Overview of changes in our recommendations/price targets in the previous twelve months for: Leifheit AG (LEI GY), Close
(29/04/2015): 48.35 EUR, Analyst: Christoph Schlienkamp (Investmentanalyst DVFA).
Date of publication
24/04/2015
18/02/2015
19/08/2014
Price at recommendation
Rating
Price target
50.99 EUR
48.80 EUR
37.44 EUR
Buy
Buy
Buy
60.00 EUR
55.00 EUR
50.00 EUR
Overview of changes in our recommendations/price targets in the previous twelve months for: Linde AG (LIN GY), Close
(29/04/2015): 173.65 EUR, Analyst: Heiko Feber (Analyst).
Date of publication
21/04/2015
26/01/2015
30/07/2014
15/07/2014
Price at recommendation
Rating
Price target
185.30 EUR
165.20 EUR
156.20 EUR
152.90 EUR
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
195.00 EUR
170.00 EUR
160.00 EUR
157.00 EUR
Overview of changes in our recommendations/price targets in the previous twelve months for: SHW AG (SW1 GY), Close
(29/04/2015): 41.33 EUR, Analyst: Christian Ludwig (CFA).
Date of publication
18/02/2015
Price at recommendation
Rating
Price target
42.95 EUR
Buy
52.00 EUR
Overview of changes in our recommendations/price targets in the previous twelve months for: Ströer Media SE (SAX GY),
Close (29/04/2015): 34.69 EUR, Analyst: Alexandra Schlegel.
Date of publication
13/04/2015
Price at recommendation
Rating
Price target
34.24 EUR
Buy
41.00 EUR
The distribution of recommendations in our investments universe is currently as follows (date: 01/04/2015)
Rating
Buy
Hold
Sell
Under Review
Basis: all analysed companies
Basis: companies with investment banking relationships
52.5%
33.8%
13.7%
0.0%
71.4%
28.6%
0.0%
0.0%
First Take 30/04/2015
BANKHAUS LAMPE // 12
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Company
Disclosure
BASF SE
Continental AG
Fuchs Petrolub SE
HOCHTIEF AG
Leifheit AG
Linde AG
SHW AG
Ströer Media SE
6.
6
---------------
The author or a person contributing to the production of this financial analysis directly holds financial instruments or related derivatives of this company.
Responsible regulatory authority:
Federal Financial Supervisory Authority – Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin), Marie-Curie-Str. 24-28, D-60439 Frankfurt
First Take 30/04/2015
BANKHAUS LAMPE // 13
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First Take 30/04/2015
BANKHAUS LAMPE // 14
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First Take 30/04/2015