Presentation for investors and shareholders for Q1 2015 May 4th, 2015 Belgrade Investor Relations Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by NIS a.d. Novi Sad (the “Company”), and comprises the slides for a presentation to investors concerning the Company. Presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation, or any solicitation of any offer to sell or purchase or subscribe for, any shares or other securities representing shares in the Company, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its presentation or distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision. Any viewer of this presentation considering a purchase of such securities is hereby reminded that any such sale or purchase should be made solely on the basis of the information contained in other publicly available documents and will be subject to the restrictions set out therein. 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The Company cautions you that forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and that its actual results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the industry in which the Company operates may differ materially from those made in or suggested by the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. In addition, even if the Company’s results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the industry in which the Company operates are consistent with the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, those results or developments may not be indicative of results or developments in future periods. The information and opinions contained in this presentation are provided as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. No person is under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. 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NIS in Q1 2015 EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION • Environmentally friendly drilling by applying the dry location principle • Amine unit construction – reduction of CO₂ emission = new facility for gas purification • Developing a detailed geological model of the Pannonian Basin (PetroMod software, Schlumberger) • Use of chemical substances in the process of fluid production, preparation and disposal, help reduce the equipment overhaul intervals REFINING • The contract with CB&I was signed, for developing a basic design package and the expanded basic design package (BDP/FEED) for the Bottom of the Barrel Project • Optimization of vacuum oil distillation (C-2200) operation with the objective to increase the VGO yield and reduce steam consumption rate at the injectors • Start-up of diesel hydrotreating unit (S-2400 HDS), with the objective to improve the low-temperature properties of diesel and obtain the required quality of diesel 3 • In January, the major overhaul of the Bitumen Unit was completed. All tasks during the scheduled downtime due to overhaul were performed efficiently and within deadlines, as to ensure a continuous, reliable and safe unit operation in the forthcoming period NIS in Q1 2015 SALES • 2 DODO PSs were rebranded in Serbia; • Advantageous contracts on import of crude oil and components were signed, stipulating lower premiums; • In February, the Bunkering Sector of the Sales and Distribution marked a record sales of Euro Diesel of 3,200 tons, which is a significant sales volume of this petroleum product on the Danube; • NIS Petrol trade mark was introduced to NIS retail facilities. The major benefits from introducing our own trade mark are quality assurance and price control, independent market penetration, products with the brand identity, improved customer loyalty and increase in revenues. ENERGY 4 • Activities related to establishing a design company for the purpose of implementing CHPP Pančevo Project are in place. Preparation of the feasibility study and preliminary design in the Serbian language, in compliance with the legislation of the Republic of Serbia, is underway. The creation of the General Regulation Plan is about to be completed. • Assessment of funding capacity for Plandište Wind Farm Construction Project with German Company ECA Hermes is underway, as well as the preparation for acquisition of a share in the Project by Chinese Company CEE. • Bradarac (0,3 MW), Velebit 3 (2 МW) and Turija (1 MW) Power Plants were started up, construction of Sirakovo 2 (2MW) Power Plant was completed, as well as the feasibility analysis for the construction of Majdan Power Plant (2.65MW) . • Construction of CNG installations at Novi Sad 10 BS is underway, as well as preparations for constriction of CNG installations at Čačak 1 and Fontana Niš PSs. • Preparatory activities for the construction of a gathering and dispatch station and CNG installations at Ostrovo are in progress. Macroeconomic indicators USD/RSD Exchange rate trends +28% 2015 99.4641 100 60 84.4474 105.95 53.98 55.38 2015 2014 83.8855 80 01.01. 15.01. 29.01. 12.02. 26.02. 12.03. 26.03. 5 2014 80 90 83.1282 108.14 107.94 107.6983 100 -50% 120 111.4240 110 Crude oil Brent* type trends, in $/bbl 53.69 40 02.01. 23.01. 12.02. 04.03. 24.03. • Average USD/RSD exchange rate is by RSD 23.2509 i.e. 28% higher in Q1 2015 than the average rate in Q1 2014 • Average price of Brent crude oil is by -54.16 $/bbl i.e. -50.1% lower in Q1 2015 than the average price in Q1 2014 • Average USD/RSD exchange rate increased by RSD 11.9599 i.e. 12% in Q1 2015 • Average price of Brent crude oil decreased by -1.69$/bbl i.e. -3.1% in Q1 2015 • Average USD/RSD exchange rate increased by RSD 1.7573 i.e. 2% in Q1 2014 • Average price of Brent crude oil decreased by -1.99$/bbl i.e. -1.8% in Q1 2014 *Data for Europe Brent Spot Price FOB;Sourceр: U.S. Energy Information Administration (http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm) Q1 2015: HSE indices Most of the HSE indicators show a positive trend or unsiginficant deviations; Investments in enviromental projects are considerably under the plan Investment into environmental projects, mln. USD Transparency index increase Perforation coefficient 25% -70% Major accidents 9 Serious incidents 33 218 Minor incidents 275 3,280 Potentionally hazardous situations 5 0% 48 -50% 291 173 86 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2014 Plan Q1 2015 LTIF 0.006 0.006 Q1 2015 Plan Q1 2015 3,727 Q1 2015 RAR -56% 0.008 Q1 2014 Investigated cases -45% -12% 6% -7% -8% 6.07 Q1 2014 6 2.67 2.90 Q1 2015 Plan Q1 2015 1.02 Q1 2014 0.56 0.60 Q1 2015 Plan Q1 2015 82% 88% Q1 2014 Q1 2015 *Perforation coefficient is relation between the number of perforations based on the total oil pipeline length in km LTIF - Lost time injury frequency rates (relation between the number of injured during accidents at work and the total working hours, multiplied by 1 million RAR - Road Accident Rates - relation between the number of road accidents as opposed to mileage in km, multiplied by 1 million 100% Plan Q1 2015 Q1 2015: Key indicators NIS Group Key indicators Urals Q1 2015. Q1 2014. 𝐐𝟏 𝟐𝟎𝟏𝟓. 𝐐𝟏 𝟐𝟎𝟏𝟒. (%)1 $/bbl 52.93 107.43 -51% Net (loss) profit bn RSD (4.7) 8.6 -155% EBITDA2 bn RSD 7.2 15.5 -53% Sales bn RSD 46.4 56.6 -18% OCF bn RSD 4.4 2.2 103% bn RSD 29.5 25.9 14% thou. t.o.e. 397 419 -5% Oil and semi-finalized products refining volume thou. tons 684 724 -6% Total sales of oil products thou. tons 680 643 6% Foreign assets thou. tons 41 35 17% Oil products local market sales5 thou. tons 549 512 7% Motor fuel thou. tons 327 302 8% Retail thou. tons 141 124 13% % 43 41 by 2% CAPEX6 bn RSD 7.0 9.6 -27% Total bank indebtedness (total indebtedness)7 m USD 654 593 10.3% Taxes and other fiscal obligations3 Domestic oil and gas production4 Market share on retail market in the Republic of Serbia [1] All possible discrepancies in percentage values and total values are due to rounding errors EBITDA = Sales (without excise tax)– inventories ( of oil, oil products and other products) – operational expenditure (OPEX) – other costs, which management cannot affect [3] Taxes, duties, fees and other public revenues calculated for the relevant period. The overview includes NIS' tax obligations and other public revenues in Serbia and in other countries in which it operates [4] Gasolene and light condensate were included in the production of oil, and commodity production of gas was included in the gas production [5] Apart from motor fuels, production of other petroleum products was included as well.. [6] Financing, without VAT [7] Total bank indebtedness = Total indebtedness to banks + letters of credit. As at 31/03/2015. it amounts to 640 million USD total debt + 14 million USD letters of credit. [2] 7 Measurement unit Market of motor fuels trends Q1 2015/2014 Regional motor fuels markets are slowly recovering Romania Hungary A key factor for motor fuels demands recovery in the regional market are significantly lower prices. In Serbia, demand growth was mainly caused by higher consumption of diesel fuel. One of the main factors were lower prices and filling in operational stocks that were reduced during the period of rapid price decline in the last quarter of 2014. Termination of heating oil retail sales and continued marking of petroleum products contributed to additional growth of the legal market. Slovenia 5.0% 4.1% Serbia* 6.5% Croatia Bulgaria 2.0% Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.7% 8 1.0% Sources of information used as a basis for the projections designed: * Serbia, internal analyses and assessments conducted by the Sales and Distribution; - PFC - assessment of consumption per trimester in Bulgaria and Romania, 2014; Eurostat - PFC and internal assessments for B&H, September 2014 1.8% Regional Retail Market and Motor Fuel Market* Trends Increase of market share in regional markets Bosnia and Herzegovina 35 9% 9.6% • Motor fuel market is recovering more slowly than other markets in the region becouse of low level of economic activity. • Due to the significantly lower excise duties and taxes than in neighboring countries, Bosnia and Herzegovina recorded growth of cross-border purchases of goods from the population in border regions, which include the purchase of fuel. Bulgaria 35 3.1% 4.2% • The gradual recovery of the Bulgarian market continued in 2015. The growth in motor fuel market is the result of an increase in the consumption of diesel fuel, which should be a key factor for further growth in the long term. • On the Bulgarian retail market competition is very intense in the field of customer loyalty programs. On Gazprom's petrol stations a very successful program, "Fuel pass" was launched and it became very popular with customers. Romania 18 0.5% 0.7% • Motor fuel market recorded recovery in first quarter of 2015, mainly thanks to lower prices, export growth and a slight recovery in demand in general. • Growth in sales of new vehicles by 15% in the first quarter can be a generator of slow growth in retail spending. • Following the acquisition of ENI, MOL operates a network of more than 200 stations in Romania. Number of FSs 9 NIS market share in the total motor fuel market Sources of information used for forecast processing: - PFC - estimated consumption per quarter in Bulgaria and Romania, 2014; Eurostat, - Data for B&H: PFC "internal analyses and assessments conducted by the Sales and Distribution; * Motor Fuel Market: Motor gasoline (mogas), diesel fuels and LPG; NIS market share in the retail market The Market of the Republic of Serbia The total consumption of petroleum products is dropping The market scope of the Republic of Serbia, in thou. tons 685 164 (24%) 522 (76%) Q1 2014 NIS 729 171 (23%) 558 (77%) • Consumption of petroleum products has increased mostly due to significant growth in the consumption of fuel oil and diesel fuel, which is mainly caused by lower prices. The consumption of liquefied petroleum gas, naphtha, bitumen and aviation fuel is slightly lower than in the same period last year. • NIS's market share has slightly increased compared to last year due to adequate market access and flexible responses to dynamic changes in the market. Q1 2015* Others Retail market in Republic of Serbia**, in thou. tons 304 180 (59%) 124 (41%) Q1 2014 NIS 10 6.3% 330 189 (57%) 140 (43%) 8.5% • Retail market increased compared to the same period of the previous year and features a slightly modified structure in which the demand for auto gas is reduced, while the consumption of diesel fuel is on the rise. Lower prices of petroleum products in the first quarter accelerated the start of sales of diesel to farmers earlier than usual, which is the main reason for the growth in sales. • On the retail market NIS’s share increased in relation to earlier procurement of agro diesel than in previous years. Within the program for the farmers, NIS launched Agro card with special benefits for this segment of customers. Q1 2015* Others All possible discrepancies in percentage values and total values are due to rounding errors * Data for Q1 2015 is an estimate ** NIS and other competitors' sales include motor fuels (gas, motor fuels, diesel and EL fuel oil used as motor fuel). LPG bottles excluded. Financial Indicators Sales, bn RSD -18% Decrease of retail prices of petroleum products in Q1 2015 is app. -10% compared to the same period last year: Changes in retail prices 66.0 56.6 71.2 64.5 Euro premium BMB95 ∆ 𝑸𝟏 𝟐𝟎𝟏𝟓. 𝑸𝟏 𝟐𝟎𝟏𝟒. -12.78% 46.4 Euro diesel Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 OCF, bn RSD (%) -7.15% Excise tax on euro diesel was raised from 46 RSD/l to 50 RSD/l as of 1 January 2015 +103% Operating Cash Flow increased due to: • Lower payment for crude oil procurement • Lower operating expenses 30.3 • Payment of old debt of JAT (Air Serbia) at the end of March 17.7 2.2 4.4 -0.6 Q1 '14 11 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 All possible discrepancies in percentage values and total values are due to rounding errors *Цене су обрачунате као просек свих дневних цена у Q1 2015. и Q1 2014. Financial Indicators EBITDA, bn RSD -53% EBITDA for Q1 2015 was by 53% lower than in Q1 2014: • Crude oil price trends 15.5 15.4 16.4 • Length of procurement-refining-sales cycle combined with changes in crude oil and petroleum products prices had negative impact on Q1 2015 EBITDA 16.1 7.2 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Net (Loss) Profit, bn RSD -155%/-70% Decrease of net profit in Q1 2015 comparing to Q1 2014 by -155%: 8.6 8.4 2.8 6.7 4.1 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 -4.7 12 • Negative foreign exchange differences as a result of stronger USD vs. local currency All possible discrepancies in percentage values and total values are due to rounding errors 7.5 negative foreign exchange differences − Negative foreign exchange differences amounted to 0.8 billion RSD in Q1 2014 − Negative foreign exchange differences amounted to 7.5 billion RSD in Q1 2015, which is 9.7 times higher than in Q1 2014 Result of Operational Efficiency Improvement Measures The estimated result of measures for entire 2015 is 6.6 bn RSD, while the result in Q1 2015 was 0.8 bn RSD 0.5 Measures BP 2015 Additional measures Additional measures - potential 1.3 1.5 6.6 0.5 1.6 1.0* 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 6.6 0% 1.6 0.0 0.3 Additional potential measures identified by the Block/Strategy and Investments 17% 2.9 2.5 0.8 1.9 0.4 0.2 0.2 All additional measures have been included in the EBITDA forecast 0.6 26% 1.2 Total measures planned in 2015 BP – current estimate - 2.1 bn RSD 0.2 0.4 Exploration and Production 13 0.4 Services Refining Sales and Distribution Energy *Including additional effect in amount of 0.22 m RSD which is reflected in Exploration and Production Block Functions 2.1 1.7 0.4 NIS 2015 Estimate Остварење у% Q1 2015 Exploration and production The production of oil and gas is in line with the business plan Oil and gas production, thousand t.o.e. -5% 419 13 111 406 15 102 403 14 102 401 14 110 397 14 113 295 289 287 277 269 Q4 '14 Serbia - gas Q1 '15 Angola Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Serbia - crude oil Estimate on growth of HC reserves in 2015 The production of oil and gas in Q1 2015 was in line with the business plan for this period. -1% • Production of domestic oil is in line with business plan • Total production of oil and gas in first quarter of 2015 was 397 thousand t.o.e. which is by 5% lower comparing to the same period last year. Plan Q1 '15 +5% Expected growth of hydrocarbon reserves for 2015 is 5% 31 Dec '14 14 HC Production Reserves Increment Сва All possible discrepancies in percentage values and total values are due to rounding errors 31 Dec '15 Estimate Refining Refining volume, thousand tons 164 99 277 127 684 78 339 202 261 348 390 376 386 345 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Imported crude oil 15 678 100 296 There was decrease in refining volumes by 6% in Q1 2015 comparing to same period last year: 852 850 724 -6% Domestic crude oil Semi-finished products All possible discrepancies in percentage values and total values are due to rounding errors • Higher refining volume in Q1 2014 was caused by need to produce higher volume of petroelum products to supply the market in period of planned overhaul of C-300 facility in March, and C-300 and C-2300 in April of 2014, and also with substitution of natural gas for own consumption with fuel oil production from Q1 2015, which resulted in a reduction of purchases of natural gas • Optimization of refining volumes in accordance with market needs and optimizing crude oil refining Sales and distribution Sales volume, thousand tons 6% 782 828 156 137 837 119 427 473 493 35 124 38 161 42 175 42 183 41 141 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 643 96 388 Retail Serbia Foreign assets Wholesale Serbia 680 91 408 Export Sales structure, thousand tons 782 828 There was increase in sales volume by 6% in Q1 2015 comparing to Q1 2014 and total sales volume was 680 thousand tons • Retail – 13% increase: • Increase of retail is primarily result of increase in sales of diesel fuels by 22%, as well as increase in sales of motor gasoline by 2%. • Foreign assets – 17% increase • Increase in sales of motor fuels by 18% out of which increase in sales of diesel fuels is 84% and decrease in sales of gasoline is 46%. • Wholesale – 5% increase: 837 680 643 • Increase is a result of increase of sales of motor fuels by 4% - out of which increase in sales of gasoline is 13% and in sales of diesel – 3%. • Increase in sales of fuel oil is 45%. 603 129 179 193 199 128 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 514 Black and other products 16 638 635 552 • Export – 5% decrease: White products and LPG All possible discrepancies in percentage values and total values are due to rounding errors Ино промет представља промет остварен од стране НИС-ових зависних друшштава. • Decrease in sales of naphtha (-9%) and bitumen (-10%) was recorded • Decrease of export comparing to Q1 2014 is due to decrease of sales of fuel oil (-73%). • Increase in sales of gasoline by 72% and bitumen by 2% Indebtedness Total debt to banks increased by 7% Total debt to banks, million USD1 31.03.'15 110 455 31.12.'14 86 31.12.'13 4 358 31.12.'12 41 264 31.12.'10 Short-term Mid-term Long-term 99 403 155 392 488 466 442 395 400 94 455 116 446 201 31.12.'09 500 500 82 598 430 25 600 75 640 430 330 31.12.'11 GPN loan, million EUR 611 300 793 210 200 100 200 384 61 0 31.12.'09 31.12.'10 31.12.'11 30.09.'12 31.12.'12 31.12.'13 31.12.'14 31.03.'15 Total bank indebtedness2, million USD 31.03.'15 31.12.'14 28 31.12.'13 34 31.12.'12 14 31.12.'11 13 31.12.'10 33 31.12.'09 17 14 1Term 233 640 654 598 455 403 Structure of total debt to banks, by currency, in % 81% 31.03.'15 626 85% 31.12.'14 489 31.12.'12 18% 1% 56% 14% 1% 26% 446 611 Letters of credit Total debt 458 644 793 1,026 31.12.'11 31.12.'10 31.12.'09 70% 74% 67% structure of the debt to banks is shown according to Contract terms and not by maturity of the debt as of 31 March 2015 addition to the debt to the banks and Letters of Credit, as at 31 March 2015, NIS j.s.c. Novi Sad also holds issued bank guarantees in the amount of USD 48 million, corporate guarantees in the amount of USD 54 million and signed Letters of Intent in the amount of USD 0,12 million 2In 18% 418 25% 5% 21% 5% 32% 1% USD EUR Other Investments In the first quarter of 2015, 7.05 billion RSD was allocated for investment funding Investment funding by type of project Q1 2015. Q1 2014. Ecology Angola Projects with direct economic effects Projects without direct economic effects Design and research work TOTAL: 0.09 0.27 5.12 1.42 0.14 7.05 0.21 0.06 6.51 2.23 0.62 9.62 Estimate 2015 0.24 1.29 24.09 7.21 0.69 33.52 *in RSD billion VAT exclusive CAPEX by investment projects, funding in RSD billion VAT exclusive 9.62 0.62 2.23 -27% -78% -36% 3% 7.05 0.06 0.21 Q1 2014 18 5.12 +395% -58% 4% 2% 1% 8% 0.14 1.42 -21% 6.51 Investments by segments, in billions of RSD 0.27 0.09 Ecology Angola PSA Projects with direct economic effects Projects with out direct economic effects Design and research work Q1 2015 All possible discrepancies in percentage values and total values are due to rounding errors *PSA - Production Sharing Agreement; NIS j.s.c. Novi Sad with subsidiary companies, excluding Jubos d.o.o. Bor, NIS Overseas o.o.o. Saint Petersburg, and NIS Svetlost d.o.o. Bujanovac 82% Exploration and production Refining Sale and distribution Services Energy Corporate Centre The most important investments in Exploration and Production, Refining and Sales and Distribution Q1 2015 Exploration and production • Seismic testing • Increasing oil and gas production Refining • Modernisation of refining capacities Sale and distribution • Development of the retail network 5.77 billion RSD • 3D seismic exploration and drilling of exploration wells in the Republic of Serbia • Drilling of wells • Extraction of CO2 from nautral gas 0.54 billion RSD • Isomerization of diesel in Pančevo Refinery • Instalation of heat exchanger „Packinox“ on plant for catalytic reforming in Pančevo Refinery 0.22 billion RSD • Legalization of petrol stations in Serbia • Investment maintenace and automation of retail network in Serbia Comparative analysis (benchmarking) of basic indicators with competitors (NIS* Q1 2015, other 2014) EBITDA margin (in %) EBITDA/FTE** (in thousands USD) 2 8.4 Daily sales rate (in ton/day) 3 35.9 64.0 10.9 11.4 5.6 120.4 6.1 143.5 15.7 6.2 214.2 37.8 8.2 115.6 16.8 6.1 Ratio of other products (in %) OPEX ($/boe) Lifting costs 3 72.4 5.3 REVEX 2.1 1 7.4 8.5 75.5 16.6 75.5 17.3 78.8 79.0 76.2 20 5 4.7 Sources: NIS, Companies reports *Data EBITDA / FTE presented for 2014 * * Without leasing employees N/A 12.4 6.8 t/day Increase in sales through premium channals by 12% and increase of share in retail motor fuels market by 1.7% Increase of operational efficiency Payment of old debt of JAT (Air Serbia) Positive dynamics in financial result of subsidiaries in charge for sales Significantly changed business plan assumptions (crude oil price) Negative foreign exchange differences – almost 10 times bigger than in the same period last year Net loss NIS a.d. Novi Sad Investor Relations Narodnog fronta 12 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia e-mail: [email protected]
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