Joachim MULLER Managing Director Fulcrum3D
Resource Assessments and Development of WPP's - Use of Remote Sensing Technology - introduction It is no longer a straightforward process deciding on the optimal measurement strategy to minimise uncertainties in the energy assessment for a specific project. Assessing the resulting financial benefit is just as challenging. Minimising uncertainties in wind speed measurement, wind flow modelling and ultimately energy yield calculation is essential – maximises project debt (P90) – maximises financial returns to the investor More than anything, the energy yield uncertainties are driven by the design of the wind monitoring campaign A good wind monitoring campaign has the best financial return available from any wind energy investment, paying for itself many times over Page 2 traditional approach Hub height wind monitoring mast Multiple instruments along mast – typically 3 – 4 anemometers at different heights – Typically 2-3 wind vanes – quality of instruments varies Wind shear calculations to estimate wind speeds above the mast Wind flow models to estimate wind speeds at different locations on site Minimum 12 month campaign Page 3 remote sensing approach Mobile, ground mounted remote sensing system (sodar or lidar) Single unit measures the entire height of the wind turbine – measures wind speed, direction and inflow angle with measurements every 10m from 40 – 200m – Wind speed measurements up to and beyond blade tip Already 3 month campaign with correlation against long term met mast gives additional value Due to the mobility different locations can be measured on site Page 4 comparison of options Traditional approach Fulcrum3D Sodar Accuracy • • Very good in simple terrain Affected by inflow angle in complex terrain; met mast interference; cup overspeeding • • Very good in simple terrain Very good in complex terrain in combination with met-mast (measures vertical flows also) Availability • • • • • Excellent in normal operation Initial delays due to building approvals etc significant Damage more likely (lightning, birds) • Very good in normal operation Fast initial deployment – no building approvals required Minimal maintenance Measurement heights • • Hub height only 3 or 4 measurement points • • Tip height and beyond Measures every 10m Vertical wind speed/ inflow angle • Not usually measured, low accuracy when measured • Measured at each height Flexibility • Only one location • Easy deployment in many locations Costs • • Mod – High capital & installation High removal costs • (depending on sensor quality and mast height) • Moderate capital, re-usable at many sites Very low for installation and removal Well known technology • • Relatively new technology Proven via extensive validation tests Page 5 Experience • flexibility of a sodar offers many benefits Sodars are mounted in a trailer and can be relocated on site in a matter of hours, at minimal cost – A single sodar could provide a typical 12 month monitoring program at >5 different locations over its typical life span – Sodars can also be easily used for shorter (e.g. 3 month) campaigns to test multiple sites; confirm expected results; or test wind shear at existing masts In small sites in simple terrain usually only one measurement location is required As sites get larger, more measurements locations are required – This is even higher in complex terrain where measurements every 1-2km (equating to 1 measurement every 6 - 10 turbines) are often recommended Met masts cannot be simply relocated, and are expensive to remove – usually <20% of the initial capital can be retained at the end of the initial installation Page 6 uncertainty benefits / impacts of Sodar Benefit / impact of Sodar relative to Met Mast Availability • Slightly lower availability during the measurement period does not materially affect uncertainty • More data for the same costs Monitoring period • Sodar can offer benefits where met mast instalment is delayed through planning approval requirements Measurement height • Reduction in uncertainty from wind shear estimates – this can be significant in unusual wind conditions Multiple measurement locations • Lower cost and greater flexibility of sodar allows multiple measurement locations on a site for the same cost • This can significantly reduce overall uncertainty, especially in complex terrain where wind flow modelling uncertainty often exceeds all other uncertainties Page 7 EXAMPLE WIND FARM SITE example wind farm site 28 turbine site along a ridge approx. 10km long hill top location with difficult access – complex terrain some sparse vegetation on site proposed turbine hub heights in range 80 – 100m significant wind monitoring requirements in order to reduce overall yield uncertainty Page 9 option 1: typical monitoring program 1 x 60m mast installed in accessible northern area 12 months data already collected, correlates well with long term mast off-site turbines located up to 10km from the closest met mast very high energy yield uncertainty requires at least one additional hub height met mast to reduce uncertainty Page 10 option 2: additional 1x sodar use a single sodar to: – carry out 3mo shear verification at existing mast (6080m) – measure 2 additional locations to the south for 6mo each (“site infill”) all turbines now within 3km of a wind monitoring location same price as purchasing 1 x new hub height met mast 12 - 18 months measurement campaign lower uncertainty, higher value site Page 11 option 3: additional 2x sodars use one or two sodars to: – carry out 3mo shear verification at existing mast (6080m) – measure 4 additional locations to the south for 6mo each (“site infill”) all turbines now within 1.5km of a wind monitoring location 1 sodar would take 18 – 30 months and cost the same as a new hub height met masts 2 sodars would take 12 - 15 months measurement campaign lowest uncertainty, highest value site Page 12 THE TURKISH SITUATION Page 13 The Turkish situation government advises proposed connection points for tenders developers secure sites and commence wind monitoring – – New Electricity Market Law (6446) requires at least 12 months wind data to be captured on the site often carried out with a single met mast in easy access area • • ~80% with 60m mast ~20% with 80m mast developers then bid into the tender process – Significant oversupply therefore significant uncertainty this leads to 3 monitoring phases: – site identificaition – preparation for tender – after winning a tender- confirming wind energy yields for financing Page 14 initial site investigation a single sodar can assess multiple sites using short term campaigns from this the preferred site near a connection point can be chosen – quickly, and at low cost early site measurements can then be used to – decide what resource exists – correlate with the met mast once installed to extend the effective length of the met mast dataset – confirm wind shear above the mast and check inflow angles affecting met mast measurements Page 15 12 month data collection Together with the met-mast the sodar is ideally suited to providing the initial 12 months wind data required for the wind tenders – – – – increased height range up to 200m measurements every 10m vertical inflow information several locations can be measured with additional sodar measurements you can get much more precise information prior to submitting a tender lower risk if the bid is not successful, the sodar can be relocated to another site at low cost Page 16 after winning a bid, a sodar offers: rapid increase in the number of locations monitored on site – no delays from weather windows; building approvals etc – Maximise wind data to reduce uncertainty height extension of existing masts – Low cost confirmation of the wind shear calculations of the existing mast – Rapidly take the effective height of a 60m mast to >150m significantly lower uncertainty from wind flow modelling, the most significant contributor to yield uncertainty in complex terrain Page 17 FULCRUM3D SODAR introduction to Fulcrum3D Sodar specifically designed for high performance in complex terrain optimised for the wind energy industry compact beam sodar wind speed, direction and inflow angles from 40m to >200m fully automated for remote operation data available via Flightdeck Page 19 extensive validation testing extensive validation test regime adjacent to tall met masts (up to 130m) – – – – ~25 location both simple and complex terrain, in coastal and inland sites Elevation from below sea level to 1300m above Average annual wind speeds 5.5 – 9.5 m/s Average annual temperatures 10 degrees – 35 degrees results have been analysed by Fulcrum3D and industry experts – Consultants including DNV-GL, Windguard, Barlovento, Parsons Brinckerhoff, Entura, Ecofys … – Clients including Epuron, Westwind, Trustpower, Eurus Energy … 3-way trial shows excellent performance of Fulcrum3D Sodar compare to another sodar-system on key metrics (within 1% of mast vs. within 2% of mast, 0.980 vs. 0.958 on R2, increased availability at higher heights) Page 20 conclusion there is not only one way to carry out measurement campaigns developers should go more into the detail and check the impact of all technologies on costs and project value sodar, alone or in combination with met masts, offers significant improvements in uncertainty and at low cost the Fulcrum3D Sodar is designed specifically for complex terrain and is priced to suit the Turkish market Page 21 Fulcrum3D Pty Ltd Level 11, 75 Miller Street North Sydney NSW 2060 AUSTRALIA T +61 (2) 8456 7400 F +61 (2) 9922 6645 www.fulcrum3d.com [email protected] a better sodar design 3x physically fixed phased arrays eliminate site to site variations seen with electronically-steered sodars – beam orientation is independent of frequency, temp., air density – greater consistency from site to site adjustable beam frequency (3.5 to 7.5 kHz) allows: – side by side operation of sodars – avoidance of specific background noise e.g. birds multi-beam sampling available physically fixed phased arrays ensure constant beam angles – more data, more availability Page 23 a better sodar design narrow beam angle means better performance in complex terrain – 9-12o from vertical compared with up to 30o for competitors – smaller measurement volume; reduced flow curvature effects in complex terrain – greater accuracy in complex terrain operating range 40 to >200m – 10m height bins (5m optional) – arbitrary heights available to match mast measurement heights or hub heights Page 24 a better sodar design full spectrum data retrieval – spectrum data is sent via secure communications to Fulcrum3D servers for processing full spectrum data is permanently stored for post processing later – historical data can be reprocessed when software upgrades are released • data continuity and consistency are assured • processing improvements can be compared directly Fulcrum3D Sodar Electronics – 3rd party or client algorithms can be applied to raw spectrum data Page 32 how it works Sound pulse (“chirp”) sent by sodar As this chirp moves up through the atmosphere some of the sound is scattered back towards the sodar The sodar listens to this returned signal – the time delay from when the chirp was sent directly relates to the measurement height Wind flow causes a “doppler shift” in the frequency this is used to determine the wind speed at each height Page 33 data management via Flightdeck all data can be viewed and downloaded from one location: – wind, solar, met, noise data – telemetry and location – operating status / faults data available in both raw and clean formats site and equipment details available at the click of a button – site history – equipment location history flightdeck.fulcrum3d.com Page 34 benefits compared with lidar significantly lower cost to install and operate – four separate sodars could be installed for the cost of one lidar real-world accuracy is just as good as lidar – one study estimated Fulcrum3D sodar uncertainty at ~2.6% compared with ~2.3% for First Class cup anemometers lower energy yield uncertainty for the same monitoring budget – more monitoring locations for longer periods means less uncertainty from wind flow modelling – on most sites this uncertainty significantly outweighs the wind speed measurement uncertainty at a monitoring location better performance in complex terrain – no need for “flow correction” modelling Page 35 fleet-wide statistics in real-world trials review of ~25 internal validation assessments based on 10-minute correlations of met-mast vs. concrete Sodar footings excellent fleet-wide accuracy, being generally within 1% of the mast, in both simple and complex terrain and over all heights excellent scatter (R2) for a sodar with average of 0.974 on simple sites and 0.969 on complex sites results are generally within cup anemometer error bands Note, these statistics are based on direct correlations of 10 minute samples and are not comparable to statistics for binned data. Page 36 and the value is… Monitoring option Cost Locations measured Largest distance to turbine Time A 1 x 60m met mast (base case) €30k 1 1 – 1.5 years 10km B 1 x 60m met mast 1 x 80m met mast €70k 2 1 – 1.5 years 5km C 1 x 60m met mast 1x sodar at 2 x locations €70k 3 1 – 1.5 years 3km D 3 x 80m met masts €120k 3 1.5 years 3km E 1 x 60m met mast €70k 1x sodar at 4 x locations €100k development F translates 1 x 60m met mast to increased development €110k 5 1.25 years 2x sodars at 4 x locations G 5 x 80m met masts €200k 5 2.25 years budget saving 5 1.5 years 1,5km profit 1,5km 1,5km Comment highest overall uncertainty lowest cost lowest monitoring coverage high overall uncertainty low-moderate cost building permits required medium overall uncertainty low-moderate cost sodars can be re-used at end medium overall uncertainty moderate cost building permits required lowest overall uncertainty low-moderate cost longer monitoring time sodars can be re-used at end lowest overall uncertainty moderate cost shortest monitoring time sodars can be re-used at end lowest overall uncertainty very high cost Page 37
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