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EUROPEAN
COMMISSION,
Directorate General for
Internal Market,
Industry,
Entrepreneurship and
SMEs
Unit GROW-F3 KETs,
Digital Manufacturing
and Interoperability
Supply and Demand of
KETs skills
Vision and Sectoral Pilot on Skills for Key Enabling Technologies
European Conference on Skills for Key Enabling
Technologies and Digital Economy
Brussels, 1 June 2015
Speaker:
Mark Lengton
Quantitative Analysis Expert
PwC Innovation Research Centre
Tel.: +31 (0)88 792 58 75
Email:
[email protected]
What is the actual demand and
supply of KETs skills in Europe?
What are the forecasts for 2025?
PwC
June 2014
2
Demand and supply of KETs skills
Matching demand and supply of KETs skills
• Goal: to estimate and analyse current and future demand and
supply of KETs skills up till 2025.
• Scope: build on existing data and synergise with relevant
initiatives.
 KETs Observatory, Cedefop, Eurostat, industry reports, …
• However:
 KETs specific data on skills are only scarcely available.
 Forecasting skills availability is already difficult for STEM
specifically, let alone KETs.
 No examples in the literature of quantitative analysis of demand and
supply of KETs skills.
European Conference on Skills for Key Enabling Technologies and Digital Economy
PwC
1 June 2015
3
Demand and supply of KETs skills
Matching demand and supply of KETs skills
• Solution: link KETs specific industry data to STEM specific skills
and employment (forecast) data.
 Results should only be interpreted as approximate estimates!
• Key assumptions:
 Focus on technical skills.
 Focus on employment of KETs professionals.
 Focus on additional demand and supply in the future for matching
demand and supply.
 Focus on new graduates for assessing additional supply in the future.
 Two scenarios: 1) the share of KETs in STEM stays relatively the same
over time and 2) the share of KETs in STEM increases over time.
European Conference on Skills for Key Enabling Technologies and Digital Economy
PwC
1 June 2015
4
From raw data to demand and supply analysis
3. Calculate and match demand
and supply
2. Value chain analysis
1. Collect relevant data
KETs Observatory
European Conference on Skills for Key Enabling Technologies and Digital Economy
PwC
1 June 2015
5
Estimated KETs employment data
Estimated employment 2013, technical jobs only (rounded down to thousands)
Total KETs
employment 2013
(technical jobs only):
2,234,000
Nanotechnology
(97,000); 4%
Photonics (348,000); 16%
Advanced
Manufacturing
Technologies
(817,000); 37%
Industrial Biotechnology
(92,000); 4%
Micro-/nanoelectronics
(316,000); 14%
Advanced materials
(561,000); 25%
European Conference on Skills for Key Enabling Technologies and Digital Economy
PwC
1 June 2015
6
Estimated KETs employment data
Additional demand from 2013 to 2025, technical jobs only (in thousands)
Baseline scenario
Optimistic scenario
+ 953,000 (+43%)
+ 2,991,000 (+128%)
Expansion demand: + 181,000
Replacement demand:
+ 1,080,000
20%
36%
64%
80%
Replacement demand:
+ 772,000
Expansion demand: + 1,910,000
European Conference on Skills for Key Enabling Technologies and Digital Economy
PwC
1 June 2015
7
Demand and supply of KETs skills
Key messages on total demand for KETs
• Between 2013 and 2025 an additional 953,000 to 2,991,000
KETs professionals are needed to satisfy demand, depending
on how the field develops.
 On average there will be an additional demand of 79,000 to
249,000 KETs workers per year up till 2025.
 Most of these jobs require high skills (62%), followed by medium skills
(30%) and low skills (8%).
 This demand is created both by the retirement of professionals
working in KETs (replacement demand) and by new positions in
KETs (expansion demand)
European Conference on Skills for Key Enabling Technologies and Digital Economy
PwC
1 June 2015
8
Are we facing a skills gap between
now and 2025?
PwC
June 2014
9
Are we facing a skills gap?
Matching demand and supply to find the answer
• Matching demand and supply is difficult, as there is no 1-to-1
link between occupational fields (ISCO) and educational fields
(ISCED).
• Nevertheless, we can consider the trends in key educational
fields and distinguish between medium and high skills.
 Also, we focus on additional annual supply and demand.
• Technical skills regarded as most crucial, hence the basis here for
mapping supply is found in STEM;
 However, not all STEM graduates go to STEM occupations,
and not all of those in turn go to KETs occupations.
 Hence, we calculated the share of STEM professionals that are likely
to go to KETs.
European Conference on Skills for Key Enabling Technologies and Digital Economy
PwC
1 June 2015
10
Are we facing a skills gap?
The answer depends on whether we consider the baseline scenario
or the optimistic scenario..
Baseline (high skills)
Optimistic (high skills)
European Conference on Skills for Key Enabling Technologies and Digital Economy
PwC
1 June 2015
11
Are we facing a skills gap?
.. and also differs between highly-skilled and medium-skilled
professionals!
Baseline (medium skills)
Optimistic (medium skills)
European Conference on Skills for Key Enabling Technologies and Digital Economy
PwC
1 June 2015
12
The answer
So are we facing a skills gap..?
• Data shows potential for a skills gap, both for high and
medium skills..
 Potential gap of approx. 21,000 – 83,000 per year for high
skills and approx. 10,000 – 44,000 per year for medium skills,
depending on how the field develops.
 This is under the assumption that KETs will continue to grow in
significance relative to the STEM occupational fields.
• ..but also potential for a surplus if KETs do not continue to grow in
significance in the STEM fields.
 Potential surplus of approx. 12,000 –37,000 per year for high
skills and approx. 15,000 – 28,000 per year for medium skills.
European Conference on Skills for Key Enabling Technologies and Digital Economy
PwC
1 June 2015
13
The answer
However: KETs can draw from a much larger pool of STEM
graduates and compete with other industries for talent!
Supply of STEM
graduates
Demand for KETs
relevant graduates
European Conference on Skills for Key Enabling Technologies and Digital Economy
PwC
1 June 2015
14
Thanks a lot for your attention!
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