1. home and garden

CHARNWOOD BOROUGH COUNCIL
MARCH 2015
Implications of 2012-based household projections for Charnwood and the
Leicester & Leicestershire HMA
1. This note sets out Charnwood Borough Council’s response to the Inspector’s request
for comments on the 2012 Household Projections and their relationship with the
objectively assessed need for housing in Charnwood and the Leicester &
Leicestershire Housing Market Area (HMA).
2012-based CLG household projections
2. The table below shows the housing need arising from the 2012-based CLG
projections alongside the lower and upper end of the OAN range suggested in the
Joint SHMA 2014.
Annual housing need in 2012-based CLG projections compared with Lower and Upper ends
of the suggested objectively assessed housing need range in the SHMA 2014
Difference
Upper end
Difference
Lower end
2012-based
from upper
of SHMA
from lower
of SHMA
CLG
end
OAN range
end
OAN range
projections
Leicester
1,189
1,250
61
1,350
161
Blaby
262
360
98
420
158
Charnwood
825
810
-15
820
-5
Harborough
395
415
20
475
80
Hinckley & Bosworth
364
375
11
450
86
Melton
171
200
29
250
79
NW Leicestershire
262
285
23
350
88
Oadby & Wigston
64
80
16
100
36
Leicester & L’shire
3,532
3,775
243
4,215
683
Relationship with HMA & Charnwood
3. The table shows that the lower end of the SHMA 2014 range was some 243
dwellings per annum above the new 2012 Household Projection (6.9% higher). For
individual authorities, many of the lower range figures are broadly comparable with
the 2012 Household Projections with only Blaby showing a significant difference
between the two sources. Charnwood is the only authority which has a higher figure
in the 2012 Household Projection than the lower range of the SHMA 2014 although
the difference at 15 dwellings a year is not significant (1.8%). Overall, the 2012
Household Projections give significant support to the demographic work in the SHMA
2014.
4. In accordance with guidance, the SHMA 2014 considered whether adjustments were
needed to the 2011 based population projections that were the starting point for the
assessment of need. The SHMA 2014 analysed market signals, affordable housing
CHARNWOOD BOROUGH COUNCIL
MARCH 2015
and forecast job growth which led to an uplifted figure, presented as the upper end of
the SHMA OAN range (as presented in the table above). The higher end of the
SHMA 2014 range for the HMA is some 683 dwellings per year above the 2012
Household Projections (19% higher).
5. In Charnwood, none of the factors were considered as significant enough to warrant
an uplift to the housing number, hence the suggested OAN for Charnwood was
driven by demographic projections. Charnwood was the only area where no uplift to
the baseline demographics was needed (on the basis of the evidence). The resulting
SHMA 2014 upper range figure for Charnwood is the only authority figure which is
lower than the 2012 Household Projection although the difference at 5 dwellings a
year is insignificant (0.6%).
6. The CLG published a revised paragraph 016 of the Planning Practice Guidance [ID:
2a-016-20150227] on the 27th February 2015 (the same day as the release of the 2012
Household Projections). The guidance updates the previous starting point for
assessments of need from the 2011 projections to the 2012 projections the subject of
this consultation. The guidance confirms that projections are the starting point and
that Local Plans should be kept up to date and meaningful changes in the housing
situation considered in this context but that housing assessments are not
automatically rendered out of date every time new projections are issued.
7. The upper end of the SHMA 2014 range is some 19% higher and the lower end is
6.9% higher than is now suggested by the CLG projections. However, it is important
to note that the 2012 Household Projections do not in themselves form a SHMA and
that for the HMA the level of provision set out in the Leicester and Leicestershire
MOU (PSD/16) is quite a positive position to be taking.
8. In Charnwood, the new household projections show only a very slightly higher figure
than in the SHMA 2014 (825 dwellings per annum compared with 820). This is not a
significant difference and would provide support for the figure in the emerging Local
Plan.
Conclusion
9. Whilst the overall position for the HMA is higher than the 2012 Household Projections
the figure for Charnwood is virtually the same as the housing requirement of 820 per
year being examined. If the 2012 Household Projections are taken at face value in
their unaltered state the relationship with the Leicester and Leicestershire capacity
figures put forward by the HMA partners through the examination (PSD/48) show that
the individual need can be met by each individual authority and that there is no
evidence of unmet needs in the HMA.
CHARNWOOD BOROUGH COUNCIL
MARCH 2015
10. The objectively assessed need of 820 homes set out in the SHMA 2014 is robust and
up to date evidence and capable of providing the basis for a sound Charnwood Core
Strategy.
THE END
COMMENT FROM BABTAG ON THE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CORE
STRATEGY OF THE 2012 HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS
The 2012 Household Projections published by the government are roughly in line
with Charnwood’s own projections of growth and requirement for housing. That said
it should be underlined that the figures from the borough and the government are only
predictions and may not reflect future reality in terms of the numbers and sizes of new
households and hence the need for new dwellings.
Whether or not the predictions are accurate does not alter the BABTAG case for
reducing the house numbers of the north east of Leicester SUE and advocating a more
manageable and acceptable development. The size is the issue. It is the biggest
development ever proposed for Leicestershire and is proving unwieldy and very
difficult to manage. The SUE continues to be beset by delays and land ownership
issues and is unlikely to deliver the much vaunted 4500 houses within the given time
frame. Much more likely is that its construction period and its completion will
exacerbate the transport problems of the area and bring traffic misery to Thurmaston,
Syston, Barkby and Barkby Thorpe. The likely failure of the SUE to meet the housing
trajectory will mean that in order to meet the housing need confirmed in the 2012
Household Projections Charnwood will need to look elsewhere in the borough for
housing sites.
The BABTAG case remains that the Core Strategy is flawed by its “all the eggs in one
basket” dependence on a “New Town” SUE and that the housing need should be
addressed by a more modest and deliverable development in the range of 2000 to
3000 houses on the north east of Leicester site and dispersed development elsewhere
in Charnwood that would allow communities to grow organically and revitalise
existing settlements.
Owen Bentley
Chairman BABTAG
Charnwood Local Plan Examination
Submissions In Respect of 2012 Household Projections
Hathern Parish Council, Shepshed Town Council and Garendon Park and Countryside Protection
Group would thank the inspector for the opportunity to comment upon the implications of the 2012
Household Projections in respect of the Local Plan Examination.
The 2012 Household Projections are an important component to considering the objectively
assessed need for housing in the Borough, a matter confirmed within the Planning Practice
Guidance.
Having reviewed the 2012 Household Projections, it is our position that the submissions made at
Matter 12, of the examination notably that there is no justification for a sustainable urban extension
at Garendon in light of the updated housing trajectory, remain entirely valid and that proceeding
with a Plan which seeks to deliver 2,400 houses at Garendon is not the most appropriate strategy
when considered against the alternatives and is thus not sound.
The inspector is again respectively invited to reconsider the entire plan strategy in light of the rapid
change in circumstances in the newly updated housing trajectory. The NPPF is clear that Plans should
be able to adapt to rapid change, and this applies equally prior to adoption as it does after the plan
making process has concluded.
Michael Robson BA(Hons) DipTP MRTPI
Director
Cerda Planning Ltd
18th March 2015
CHARNWOOD LOCAL PLAN CORE STRATEGY EXAMINATION
FURTHER STATEMENT ON BEHALF OF JELSON LIMITED AND
DAVIDSONS DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED (REF 2812)
IMPLICATIONS OF 2012 BASED HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS
Pegasus Group
4 The Courtyard
Church Street
Lockington
Derbyshire
DE74 2SL
Telephone: (01509) 670806 Facsimile: (01509) 672247
PPG Ref:
EMS.2299
Date:
March 2015
COPYRIGHT
The contents of this document must not be copied or reproduced in whole or in part without
the written consent of Pegasus Group
Jelson Limited and Davidsons Developments Limited: ID 2812
Implications of 2012 Based Household Projections
1.1
This response has been made on behalf of Jelson Limited and Davidsons
Developments Limited following the invitation from the Inspector to
comment on the implications for the Core Strategy of the recent release of
the 2012 based Household Projections.
1.2
The 2012 based Household Projections were released on the 27 th February
2015.
Following their release, the Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) has
been amended to confirm that the projections represent the most up-todate estimate of future household growth and that, wherever possible, local
needs assessments should be informed by the latest available information
(Paragraph: 016Reference ID: 2a-016-20150227).
1.3
Charnwood Borough Council has produced a note setting out the data from
the 2012 based projections and providing a comparison with the Leicester
and Leicestershire SHMA, 2014.
authorities
having
jointly
There is no evidence of the HMA
considered
the
implications
of
the
recent
projections for the Leicester and Leicestershire HMA and the extent to which
each authority can meet its objectively assessed housing needs on the basis
of this new evidence.
1.4
It is considered that Charnwood Borough Council’s assessment fails to take
proper account of the implications of the latest estimates of future
household growth for the Leicester and Leicestershire HMA.
1.5
A fundamental issued raised at the Inquiry sessions was the extent to which
Leicester City could accommodate its full objectively assessed housing
needs.
We
submitted
detailed
evidence
demonstrating
that
the
assumptions underpinning the Memorandum of Understanding (PSD16) in
terms of the delivery of housing in Leicester were seriously flawed. At the
hearing sessions, Leicester City Council failed to present any robust
evidence to support their clearly unrealistic assumptions on delivery.
1.6
This critical issue of delivery in Leicester City is further exacerbated by the
2012 based Household Projections which predict event higher levels of
household growth for the City when compared with the assumptions
underpinning the 2014 SHMA.
1.7
Tables 1 and 2 below set out the relevant comparison between the evidence
underpinning
the
2014
SHMA
(the
2011
based
Interim
Household
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EMS.2299: Charnwood Local Plan Core Strategy Examination – 2012 Based Household
Projections
Jelson Limited and Davidsons Developments Limited: ID 2812
Projections) and the most up-to-date evidence available from the 2012
based projections. The relevant table in the SHMA for comparison is Table
16.
Table 1 presents the figures contained in the SHMA, with Table 2
updating the SHMA Table 16 to reflect the 2012 based projections.
Table 1: Table 16, 2014 SHMA
2011 SNHPP
Hseholds 2011 Hseholds 2031 Change %
123,105
144,380 21,275
17.3%
38,777
45,259
6,482
16.7%
66,567
81,149 14,582
21.9%
35,021
42,576
7,555
21.6%
Leicester
Blaby
Charnwood
Harborough
Hinckley and
Bosworth
Melton
NW Leicestershire
Oadby and Wigston
Leicester and Leics
Source: Table 16 2014 SHMA
45,464
21,533
39,189
21,307
390,963
52,297
25,252
44,064
22,428
457,405
6,833
3,719
4,875
1,121
66,442
15.0%
17.3%
12.4%
5.3%
17.0%
Table 2: Updated Table 16 Using 2012 Based Household Projections
2012 SNHPP
Leicester
Blaby
Charnwood
Harborough
Hinckley and
Bosworth
Melton
NW Leicestershire
Oadby and Wigston
Leicester and Leics
Hseholds 2011 Hseholds 2031 Change %
122,996
145,975 22,979
18.7%
38,777
43,891
5,114
13.2%
66,432
82,268 15,836
23.8%
35,073
42,701
7,628
21.7%
45,505
21,564
39,230
21,288
390,865
52,553
24,873
44,297
22,497
459,055
7,048
3,309
5,067
1,209
68,190
15.5%
15.3%
12.9%
5.7%
17.4%
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EMS.2299: Charnwood Local Plan Core Strategy Examination – 2012 Based Household
Projections
Jelson Limited and Davidsons Developments Limited: ID 2812
1.8
This comparison shows an increase of 1,254 households for Charnwood
when the latest 2012 based Household Projections are used. For Leicester,
there is an increase of some 1,700 households.
1.9
The increased household growth for Leicester reinforces the concerns we
raised at the Examination sessions over the ability of the City to meet its full
objectively assessed housing needs. It is our submission that, even on the
lower levels of household growth contained in the 2014 SHMA, a realistic
assessment of deliverability would indicate a shortall of at least 2,000
dwellings that would need to be met in adjoining districts. The latest 2012
based Household Projections exacerbate this problem by identifying a level
of household growth for the City at some 1,700 households above the
evidence underpinning the 2014 SHMA.
1.10 The new household projections represent a meaningful change in the
housing situation for the HMA that has significant implications for the
approach to housing provision being promoted by the HMA authorities,
exacerbating the real issues of under delivery in Leicester and the need for
adjoining authorities to accommodate unmet needs.
1.11 A further issue raised by the new evidence available from the 2012 based
Household Projections is the extent to which they accurately account for the
international migration component of household growth.
A number of
commentators have highlighted key issues over the robustness of the
projections in terms of the assumptions made on international migration.
1.12 The assumptions made in the projections for the Leicester urban area have
been compared with the available evidence of the levels of international
migration over a 5 and 10 year period.
1.13 Table 3 below sets out the migration components for Leicester annually
from 2001 to 2013.
The 2012 base SNHP assumes an annual average
international migration component for Leicester City of some 1,460
households a year. This is well below both the actual levels of international
migration recorded for Leicester City on either a 5 year or 10 year trend.
This suggests that the 2012 based SNHP seriously underestimates the likely
future levels of international migration to the City.
Page 3
EMS.2299: Charnwood Local Plan Core Strategy Examination – 2012 Based Household
Projections
Jelson Limited and Davidsons Developments Limited: ID 2812
Table 3: Migration Components Leicester City
Internal Net
Migration
International Net
Migration
Overall Net
Migration
2001-2002
-2,996
1,819
-1,177
2002-2003
-2,876
2,399
-477
2003-2004
-2,579
3,888
1,309
2004-2005
-2,768
5,848
3,080
2005-2006
-2,863
3,353
490
2006-2007
-4,112
4,133
21
2007-2008
-3,565
2,712
-853
2008-2009
-2,691
1,891
-800
2009-2010
-1,623
2,123
500
2010-2011
-2,758
3,275
517
2011-2012
-2,311
1,200
-1,109
2012-2013
-2,996
2,366
-494
Annual Average 2008-2013
-2,476
2,171
-277
Annual Average 2003-2013
-2,827
3,079
266
Source:
Office
Statistics
for
National
1.14 This reinforces the evidence we have already submitted to the Examination
highlighting clear uncertainties over the extent to which Leicester City can
meet its objectively assessed housing needs in full.
1.15 The latest evidence of future household growth contained in the 2012 based
SNHP further undermines the key assumptions underpinning the Charnwood
Local Plan – that there will be no unmet needs arising from Leicester City
over the plan period.
1.16 The projections confirm the key concerns over the soundness of the Core
Strategy we have already presented to the Examination.
The levels of
household growth outlined in the 2012 based SNHP for Leicester cannot be
accommodated in the City, and, as a result, adjoining authorities will need
to meet some of this requirement.
1.17 The approach promoted by the HMA authorities through the Memorandum
of Understanding is at odds with this new evidence of housing need and its
distribution across the HMA.
1.18 The implications of the 2012 based projections for the Charnwood Core
Strategy are therefore serious in that the plan as submitted for examination
is demonstrably unsound and, more critically, the HMA authorities have
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EMS.2299: Charnwood Local Plan Core Strategy Examination – 2012 Based Household
Projections
Jelson Limited and Davidsons Developments Limited: ID 2812
failed to satisfy the requirements of the Duty to Cooperate to ensure that
the full objectively assessed needs for the HMA are met in full.
1.19 Adoption of the plan would represent an ill advised short term fix that will
only delay the proper consideration of future housing requirements across
the HMA over the period to 2036. This would be damaging to the proper
planning of housing requirements in Leicester and Leicestershire and have
implications for work on new and replacement plans by other HMA
authorities.
Page 5
EMS.2299: Charnwood Local Plan Core Strategy Examination – 2012 Based Household
Projections
Thank you for the opportunity to comment on the latest ONS Household Projections in the context of the Charnwood Local Plan (Core Strategy) (CSLP) Examination.
As you may be aware, Nathaniel Lichfield and Partners act for Commercial Estates Group, the promoters of the North East of Leicester SUE (Policy CS19 refers).
We note that while the latest household projection for Charnwood is lower than the previous projection, the overall housing number for the Leicester and Leicestershire Housing Market Area is not materially different to projections on which the CSLP is based (as there is a difference in the location of the projected growth with a return to a higher rate in the urban area). In our view the latest projections do not have a material effect on housing provision in Charnwood over the plan period.
The PPG is clear that the ONS projections should only be the starting point for assessing need. PPG ID: 2a-­‐016 states that “…this does not automatically mean that housing assessments are rendered outdated every time new projections are issued”, and Charnwood’s housing needs have been recently examined in detail at the EiP. In our view the plan is capable of being found sound and it is clear that the Charnwood CSLP should be adopted as soon as possible and without further delay to enable the Borough to return to plan-­‐led growth. This will include the early delivery of housing through the development of the North East of Leicester SUE which represents the optimum location for sustainable development, on the edge of the city, regardless of whether the need is generated within Charnwood and/or arises from future need which cannot be accommodated in the City.
Nick Baker Planning Director Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners, 14 Regent's Wharf,
All Saints Street, London N1 9RL T 020 7837 4477 / M 07976 077838 / E
[email protected]
Dr Matthew O’Callaghan
21 Fennel Street
Loughborough, LE11 1UQ
Jane Strachan
Programme Officer - Core Strategy examination
c/o Charnwood Borough Council
Consultation on Household Projections 2012
Firstly, I understand the Inspector has written to Charnwood Borough Council stating
that in its current form the Core Strategy is unsustainable. I understand further that
he has made some suggestions as to how the Core Strategy might be made
sustainable and proposed the Council work up these proposals before going out to
consultation on these. I believe the letter to the Council and the suggestions ought
to be shared with all parties to the Examination in Public and to the public in general
since these will ultimately shape the outcome of the Core Strategy.
Secondly, it is my understanding that there was general agreement at the end of the
Examination in Public that after taking into consideration all the applications that
have been approved by the Council, there was a short fall of sites for only around
800 houses to be found. If this is not the case then we need the justification from the
Inspector as to what is the new figure and why otherwise it will be challenged.
Further the Council argued that Loughborough – Shepshed was one Housing Market
Area (LSHMA) so all the applications approved for Shepshed should be counted
against any overall unmet needs for the LSHMA.
Finally the Household Projections themselves do not vary much from those already
updated by the Council in its later submissions to the Inspector prior to the
recommencement of the Examination in Public and so should not alter to any major
extent the figures that have already been discussed in the EiP.
Your sincerely
Dr Matthew O’Callaghan
Home Builders Federation
Respondent No. R50
CHARNWOOD LOCAL PLAN CORE STRATEGY EXAMINATION
Further comments on 2012 household projections
The NPPG confirms that 2012 based household projections published on 27th
February 2015 represent the most up to date estimate of future household
growth (ID 2a-016-20150227) which is the starting point for objectively
assessing housing needs (OAHN).
However it should be acknowledged that household projections are only
projections of past trends and not forecasts as such these projections reflect
past influences on household formation. Housing shortages over the last two
decades, and poor housing affordability, have restricted the ability of many
young people to form independent households. Therefore such projections
under-estimate future requirements by building into future housing provision
the adverse impacts on household formation of past undersupply and very
weak economic and market conditions between 2008 and 2012.
When compared to the Leicester & Leicestershire SHMA Final Report
prepared by G L Hearn dated June 2014 the 2012 based household
projections show higher household growth in both Charnwood and Leicester
City, which may still be an under-estimation for the reasons discussed above.
This increase in household growth has ramifications for the Leicester &
Leicestershire HMA as a whole.
It is unclear from the note issued by Charnwood District Council if any
collaboration between the Leicester & Leicestershire HMA authorities was
undertaken in the preparation of this note. As discussed during the
Examination Hearing Sessions there is concern that Leicester City will not be
able to meet its own housing needs and as a consequence neighbouring
authorities will be called upon to assist with meeting unmet needs elsewhere
in the HMA. This position is worsened by the increase in household growth
mentioned above.
Therefore the question remains is the proposed housing requirement for
Charnwood (790 dwellings per annum in the submitted Plan / 820 dwellings
per annum recommended in the 2014 SHMA) sound and based on robust
evidence which will significantly boost housing supply by responding to :•
•
•
•
•
Projected household growth ;
Economic growth ;
Market signals ;
Affordable housing needs ;
Unmet housing needs from Leicester City.
Susan E Green MRTPI
Planning Manager – Local Plans
Page 1
For and on behalf of
Asiatic Luck Corporation (Respondent 1241)
Charnwood Local Plan Examination
Matter 2: Objectively Assessed Need for Housing
on behalf of
Asiatic Luck Corporation (1241)
Prepared by
Roland G Bolton
Strategic Planning Research Unit
DLP Planning
March 2015
Report on the
Roland Bolton
Prepared By:
Approved by:
Date:
Strategic Planning & Research Unit
Ground Floor
V1 – Velocity
Tenter Street
Sheffield
S1 4DE
Tel: 01142 289190
Fax: 01142 721947
Roland Bolton
March 2015
4 Abbey Court
Fraser Road
Priory Business Park
Bedford
MK44 3WH
Tel: 01234 832740
Fax: 01234 831 266
DLP Consulting Group disclaims any responsibility to the client and others in respect of matters outside
the scope of this report. This report has been prepared with reasonable skill, care and diligence. This
report is confidential to the client and DLP Planning Limited accepts no responsibility of whatsoever
nature to third parties to whom this report or any part thereof is made known. Any such party relies
upon the report at their own risk.
Charnwood
On behalf of Asiatic Luck Corporation (1241)
THE 2012 HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS AND THE OBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF
NEED
1.0
INTRODUCTION
1.1
This short statement is in response the publication of the 2012 Household Projections
by the Department of Communities and Local Government in March 2015.
1.2
These projection have been made available after the inspector has confirmed in
writing on the 22 January 2015 that he has found the Core Strategy unsound but
considers it may be made sound with major modifications.
1.3
The impact of the 2012 household projections is that they providing a different (and
suggest higher rates of household formation. The Projections themselves are based
upon the 2012 Sub National Population Projections (SNPP) so the difference between
the latest projections under taken by SPRU in our “Objective Assessment of Housing
Need” Appendix 1 of out matter 2 submission and these official projections will be
down to the assumptions regarding Household Representation Rates.
1.4
The Leicester and Leicestershire Strategic Housing Market Assessment unlike the
SPRU report was not based upon the 2012 SNPP but on the consultants own
assumptions (based in the 2010 and 2011 SNPP.
1.5
This means that the SPRU and the DLCG projections are directly comparable using
as they do the same population base.
1.6
The DCPG 2012 Household projections cannot be directly compared the SHMA
outputs as the SHMA makes different assumptions regarding the base population.
1.7
As the final Objectively Assessed Need (OAN) has to respond to other factors such as
the economic strategy and affordability then there is still a case that the OAN for some
areas will be need to be higher in order to respond to these issues.
2.0
THE 2012 HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS
2.1
The 2012 Household Representation Rates
At the national level the 2012-based Household Projections have a very similar rate of
household growth 2011-based Interim projections of the comparable period from 2012
to 2022. Population growth is lower than the previous Interim Projections but this is off
set by higher projected household formation in the 2012 Household Projections
(DCLG Housing Statistical Release 27 February 2015).
2.2
These are trend based projections and as such reflect previous level of under
provision that have led to the present housing crises. The PPG makes it clear that
these projections do not reflect unmet need (Paragraph: 015 Reference ID: 2a-01520140306).
2.3
The changes between 2001 and 2011 reflected in these projections are:
a. The 36% rise for those living in Other households without dependent children
b. The 30% rise between 2001 and 2011 for those living in Other households with
dependent children.
c. Households with six or more people rose 25% between 2001 and 2011.
d. households with six or more people saw the largest proportional at almost
50%.
Macintosh HD:Users:janestrachan:Library:Mail Downloads:Matter2_2012HH_SPRU.docx
3
Charnwood
On behalf of Asiatic Luck Corporation (1241)
e. 18% of all occupied household spaces were privately rented, an increase from
12% in 2001. This was the largest increase of all housing tenure types.
f.
The owner occupied declined from 69% to 64% over the same period
Source: 2011 Census Analysis, Households and Household Composition in England and Wales, 20012011
2.4
In respect of the growth in Other households not only have these increased
substantially but they have also increased in average size. The average size of Other
households without dependent children increased from 2.92 people in 2001 to 3.06 in
2011 and saw the largest percentage increase (5.1%). Within this main category, the
Other category includes unrelated adults sharing a household space and multi-family
households with no dependent children; this category increased by 4.1% from 2.90
people to 3.02. It is suggested by the Office for national Statistics that this may reflect
an increase in young working adults sharing accommodation and multigenerational
households.
2.5
In conclusion it is considered inappropriate to utilise the household Representation
Rates in the 2012 household projections as these project forward the continuation of
above trends which are in conflict with the Framework notably in terms of:
a.
Not meeting housing demand (Framework paragraph 159)
b. Not delivering a wide choice of homes and widen home ownership (framework
paragraph 50).
2.6
The results for Charnwood
The results of the 2012 Household Projections are set out in the tables below.
2.7
This suggests that the average dwelling requirement for Charnwood for the immediate
plan period 2012 to 2020 is 839 dwellings a year but that this will reduce to lower
average of 794 for the period 2020 to 2028.
2.8
As highlighted in verbal submission this emphasises that there is a higher level of
immediate need. Any modifications to the Plan should seek to address this by
encouraging the early release of sites and the bring forward of allocations.
Table 1
Extracts from the 2012 Household Projections total
households
Blaby
Charnwood
Harborough
Hinckley and Bosworth
Melton
North West Leicestershire
Oadby and Wigston
Leicester UA
Total
2012
39,072
67,459
35,403
45,824
21,657
39,371
21,368
123,659
393,813
2020
41,247
73,903
38,737
48,776
23,143
41,456
21,570
133,055
421,887
2028
43,203
80,001
41,695
51,592
24,444
43,553
22,211
142,357
449,056
2037
45,029
86,250
44,417
54,102
25,629
45,570
23,001
152,665
476,663
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Charnwood
On behalf of Asiatic Luck Corporation (1241)
Table 2
Estim ated dwelling requirem ent from the 2012
Household Projections
Blaby
Charnwood
Harborough
Hinckley and Bosworth
Melton
North West Leicestershire
Oadby and Wigston
Leicester UA
Total
Table 3
Dwelling
Requirement
2020 to 2028
2,005
6,354
3,062
2,912
1,345
2,168
676
9,628
28,149
Dwelling
Requirement
2012 to 2028
4,234
13,069
6,512
5,964
2,882
4,324
889
19,352
57,226
vacancy
shma
figure B32
2.5%
4.2%
3.5%
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
5.4%
3.5%
Estim ated dwelling requirem ent from the 2012
Household Projections
Blaby
Charnwood
Harborough
Hinckley and Bosworth
Melton
North West Leicestershire
Oadby and Wigston
Leicester UA
Total
3.0
Dwelling
Requirement
2012 to 2020
2,229
6,715
3,451
3,052
1,537
2,156
213
9,725
29,077
Annual Rates for
dwelling 2012 to
2020
279
839
431
382
192
269
27
1,216
3,635
Annual Rates for
dwelling 2020 to
2028
251
794
383
364
168
271
84
1,203
3,519
Average Annual
Rates for
dwelling 2012 to
2028
265
817
407
373
180
270
56
1,210
3,577
COMPARISON WITH SPRU EVIDENCE ON OBJECTIVELY ASSESSED HOUSING
NEED
3.1
In terms of the SPRU projections of future households (Matter 2 Appendix 1) as stated
above these likely the DCLG projections also used the same 2012 SNPP.
3.2
For the period 2011 to 2028 the SPRU projection using the same 2012 SNPP
population base was 823 dwellings a year (matter 2 Appendix 1 table 14 page 44).
This compares very favourably to the 817 dwellings suggested by the official
government forecasts for the same period.
3.3
This close alignment when using the same population input validates the assumptions
made in the SPRU (Chelmer Model) regarding Household Representation rates. This
gives the inspector confidence when considering the implications of the level of
housing required to meet the economic objectives of the plan the SPRU work in terms
of population and Household representation rates closely align to the more recent
2012 Household projections.
3.4
This alignment between the SPRU work and the 2012 Household projections is further
emphasised if consideration is given to the likely change in the working age population
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Charnwood
On behalf of Asiatic Luck Corporation (1241)
and potential workers that result for the level of housing in the DCLG 2012 Housing
Projections.
3.5
The table 4 below identifies the change in the number of persons between the age of
16 and 74.
3.6
Table 5 applies the activity rates from the councils SHMA (fig B26) to the starting and
end populations in order to demonstrate the likely change in the labour force as a
result of the population assumptions in the 2012 Household projections.
Table 4
2012 Household projections change in 16 to 74 age
groups
Blaby
Charnwood
Harborough
Hinckley and Bosworth
Melton
North West Leicestershire
Oadby and Wigston
Leicester UA
HMA
16 to 74 at
2012
68,881
126,847
62,628
78,312
37,205
68,953
40,546
242,647
726,019
16 to 74 at
2028
70,013
138,732
65,534
79,984
37,815
70,205
38,659
259,744
760,688
change in
16 to 74
1,132
11,885
2,906
1,672
610
1,252
-1,887
17,097
34,669
% change
2%
9%
5%
2%
2%
2%
-5%
7%
Source DCLG 2012 SNPP
Table 5
2012 Household projections calculated change in labour
assum ing no change in Em ploym ent ratio
Blaby
Charnwood
Harborough
Hinckley and Bosworth
Melton
North West Leicestershire
Oadby and Wigston
Leicester UA
HMA
3.7
16 to 74 at
2012
68,881
126,847
62,628
78,312
37,205
68,953
40,546
242,647
726,019
16 to 74 at
2028
70,013
138,732
65,534
79,984
37,815
70,205
38,659
259,744
760,688
Employment
ratio 16 to 74
SHMA
Figure B26
70.6%
64.0%
71.6%
69.5%
71.3%
67.7%
65.1%
57.0%
Change in
Labour
799
7,606
2,081
1,162
435
848
-1,228
9,746
21,449
Table 6 applies the present activity rates from the councils SHMA to the starting and
then the assumed increase in the activity rate as calculated by the SHMA (Fig B26) to
end population in order to demonstrate the likely change in the labour force as a result
of the population assumptions in the 2012 Household projections but using the
increase activity rates implied by the SHMA.
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Charnwood
On behalf of Asiatic Luck Corporation (1241)
Employment ratio 16
to 74 SHMA Figure
B26
Proposed increase in
Employment Rate
Labour 2012
Labour 2028
Change in Labour
(including increase in
employment rates)
Change in Labour
due to increased
Employment rate
Blaby
Charnwood
Harborough
Hinckley and
Bosworth
Melton
North West
Leicestershire
Oadby and
Wigston
Leicester UA
16 to 74 at 2028
2012 Household projections calculated change in labour
assum ing SHM A levels of changes in Em ploym ent ratio
16 to 74 at 2012
Table 6
68,881
126,847
62,628
70,013
138,732
65,534
70.6%
64.0%
71.6%
72.9%
64.6%
72.3%
48,630
81,182
44,842
51,040
89,621
47,381
2,410
8,439
2,540
1,610
832
459
78,312
37,205
79,984
37,815
69.5%
71.3%
71.2%
72.2%
54,427
26,527
56,949
27,303
2,522
776
1,360
340
68,953
70,205
67.7%
69.1%
46,681
48,512
1,831
983
40,546
242,647
726,019
38,659
259,744
760,688
65.1%
57.0%
64.3%
59.0%
26,395
138,309
466,993
24,858
153,249
498,912
-1,538
14,940
31,919
-309
5,195
10,470
3.8
It is important to note that the projections that underlie the 2012 Household projections
do not result in the same levels of labour increase as suggested by the SHMA work –
in part at least because of the different population projections that underlie the SHMA
and the 2012 Household projections. The SPRU work which utilises the same
population base as the 2012 household projections (the 2012 SNPP) is, as argued
previously both more up to date, and has now been demonstrated to be very closely
aligned to the 2012 household projections.
3.9
The above work using the SHMA Employment ratios suggests that the labour force
within Charnwood as a result of meeting the 2012 household projection would
increase the labour force by 7,606 if there is no change in the employment ratio or
8,439 if there is a change in the employment ratio as suggested by the SHMA. This
suggests a rate of growth of between 475 and 527 persons a year.
3.10
The Core Strategy (paragraph 4.12) references evidence that suggests 13,400 new
jobs will be needed between 2010 and 2031 or 638 jobs a year this is based upon the
Full Time Equivalent Jobs In Charnwood (EB/E&R/2: 4.4.2 and table 4.26). These Full
Time Equivalent jobs are based on a growth of 16,900 workplace jobs being created
or 8,034 persons per year (Charnwood (EB/E&R/2: 4.4.1 and table 4.25).
3.11
It is important to note that the floorspace requirement to meet the increase in the
above increase in jobs as set out in Table 4.28 is much later than that planned level of
provision in the Core Strategy.
3.12
This evidence clearly reinforces the earlier position taken by SPRU that the housing
and economic strategies of the district are not integrated as required by paragraph
158 of the Framework.
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Charnwood
On behalf of Asiatic Luck Corporation (1241)
4.0
THE 2012 HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS AND THE COUNCILS EVIDENCE BASE.
4.1
The analysis above of the implications of the 2012 Household projections on the level
of available labour differs from the analysis in table of 8 of the councils post
examination document PDS40 which suggests a change in the working age
population of 16,843 persons from the 2012 SNPP and hence form the level of
provision suggested by the 2012 Household projections.
4.2
The above analysis actually considers the likely employment ratio of the total
population in order to provide an illustration as to the actual level of additional workers
that might result from the level of housing provision suggested by the 20-12
Household projections. This is different form calculating just the number of additional
people who are within that age group. This has been undertaken using the
employment ratios assumed by the council’s consultants.
4.3
This demonstrates that while the level of housing suggested by the 20-12 Household
projections might increase the number of persons of working age (including the
proportion attributed to the change in the [pension age) the number of additional
workers will be substantially less even if one applies the enhanced employment
rations suggested by the councils own consultants.
5.0
CONCLUSION ON THE 2012 HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS.
5.1
The 2012 household projections provide additional confidence to the inspector that the
work undertaken by SPRU in modelling the 2012 SNPP is reliable as the resulting
level of housing need is closely matched between the SPRU (Chelmer) based
projections and the 2012 household projections. The same conclusion cannot be
reached for the SHMA as this utilises a different population base.
5.2
This level of housing provision “locks in” all aspects of the current housing market
including poor affordability and an increase in sharing amongst unrelated adults. This
is not considered to be in accordance with the Framework of the PPG and so a higher
level of provision would be required to be fully policy compliant.
5.3
The above analysis suggest that even utilising the councils consultants enhanced
employment ratio’s the increased level of workers that will result from this level of
dwelling provision will result in a substantial mismatch between the employment
strategies as represented by the proposed allocations and the housing strategy as
presented by the proposed housing requirement.
5.4
It would appear incongruous that the council are suggesting improved economic ratios
linked to increased opportunities for employment but are relying upon household
representation rates influenced by recession and issues of affordability.
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