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MECH 896 Homework 7: Simulation and EVM Analysis
For this homework assignment, we return to Scenario A where the management targets were:




Scope = wireless (170 tasks)
Schedule = week 18
Budget = $42,500
Process = 85% (morale)
We wish to determine how the tools of Earned Value Management
(EVM) can be used as a predictive tool when running the simulation.
The underlying objective is to obtain a better understanding of how the
EVM’s are calculated, what they mean and how their results can be
interpreted.
You need to run 2 trials of Scenario A with the initial conditions given
in the table
Trial X: Increase the team size from 2 to 4 in week 6. If you don’t
change any of the conditions, you should finish in week 13 with a cost
of $40,800, a score of 703 and a morale score of 46/100.
Input
Schedule
Week 1
12
Team
2
Skill
Med High
Outsourcing
Primary
Overtime
Encourage
Coaching
2
Standups
10
Reviews
1
Prototype
none
Scope
wireless
Trial Y: Increase the team size from 2 to 4 in week 4. If you don’t change any of the conditions, you should
finish in week 12 with a cost of $40,800, a score of 748 and a morale score of 78/100.
Page 2 summarizes the simulation results for Trial X, obtained by selecting the Management Targets tab in
Week 13 (when simulation is done, selecting the “View Graphs” and then “View Data” tabs).
Page 3 gives the EVM analysis for Trial X, obtained by inputting the Management Targets numbers (of
page 2) into the EVM spreadsheet (original excel file available on the website).
Homework Assignment:
1) Run Trial X, confirm you get the same results as page 2.
2) Generate the simulation results for Trial Y (as per page 2, which are screen captures).
3) Generate the EVM analysis for Trial Y (as per page 3, use the excel file on the website).
Answer the following questions:
a) For Trial Y, how do you interpret the trend plots of the EVM analysis ?
b) Has the spreadsheet been set up correctly ? Do you agree with the sourcing of the data ? Have the
formulae used to calculate the EVM parameters been set up correctly ? Make reference to specific
slides in Lecture #6 to support your answers.
c) What is missing to enable this EVM analysis to be extended as a predictive tool ?
d) The last column in the Management Targets numbers table is entitled “Your Target” and is not
currently used in this EVM analysis. Could it be used ? This is not the answer to c).
Written answers to these questions are due before the Simulation Workshop on March 5. Send your answers
to [email protected], use“FirstName-H7.pdf” as the filename. Your single adobe file should include
your results for Trial Y, screen captures from Step 2) and excel table with plot from Step 3).
The answers will be the subject of discussion during the workshop.
2015 (rev2)
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Scenario A – Trial X (team 2 to 4 in week 6, finish in week 13)
2015 (rev1)
Wk
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Cumulative Cost (AC)
$2,040
$4,080
$6,120
$8,160
$10,200
$12,240
$16,320
$20,400
$24,480
$28,560
$32,640
$36,720
$40,800
At completion
Tasks (TCC)
Cost (PVC)
Management Tasks Management Cost Target Completed Task Target (PV)
(TC)
(MT)
$2,361
9
9
$4,722
18
19
$7,083
30
28
$9,444
41
38
$11,806
51
47
$14,167
60
57
$16,528
78
66
$18,889
96
76
$21,250
115
85
$23,611
134
94
$25,972
151
104
$28,333
168
113
$30,694
170
123
170
$30,694
Percentage Completed Earned (PC)
Value (EV)
5.3%
$1,625
10.6%
$3,250
17.6%
$5,417
24.1%
$7,403
30.0%
$9,208
35.3%
$10,833
45.9%
$14,083
56.5%
$17,333
67.6%
$20,764
78.8%
$24,194
88.8%
$27,263
98.8%
$30,333
100.00%
$30,694
Where: PC = TC/TCC
EV = PC*PVC SV = EV ‐ PVC
$4,000
1.000
$0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
($4,000)
($6,000)
($8,000)
Where: CV = EV ‐ AC
SPI = EV/PV CPI = EV/AC
1.200
$2,000
($2,000)
Schedule Cost Schedule Cost Variance Variance Variance Index Performance (SV)
(CV)
(SPI)
Index (CPI)
($415)
($736)
0.688
0.797
($830)
($1,472)
0.688
0.797
($703)
($1,666)
0.765
0.885
($757)
($2,041)
0.784
0.907
($992)
($2,598)
0.780
0.903
($1,407)
($3,334)
0.765
0.885
($2,237)
($2,445)
0.852
0.863
($3,067)
($1,556)
0.918
0.850
($3,716)
($486)
0.977
0.848
($4,366)
$583
1.025
0.847
($5,377)
$1,291
1.050
0.835
($6,387)
$2,000
1.071
0.826
$0 ($10,106)
1.000
0.752
Schedule
Variance
(SV)
Cost
Variance
(CV)
0.800
0.600
Schedule
Variance Index
(SPI)
0.400
Cost
Performance
Index (CPI)
0.200
($10,000)
($12,000)
0.000
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