Market Advisor NORTHERN NEVADA MARKET UPDATE First Quarter, 2015 INDUSTRIAL VACANCY: 9.52% mipnv.com 775.828.4665 Reno, Nevada We are experiencing increased business confidence with more requests for longer term leases, acceptance of rising rents and accommodating shrinking landlord concessions. As rents rise, landlords are returning to being focused on securing high quality tenants with stronger financials and better credit, with more TI costs being passed into rent recovery rather than landlords absorbing the costs just to fill long vacant space. Demand is equally strong for both Class A and Class B space, suggesting a broad based recovery on the demand side. Q4 2014: 8.77% Growing, healthy market. Q1 2015: 9.52% Construction Market rents are rising. Concessions eroding. Vacancy Lease Rates Quick Trends The Sparks submarket, which includes Vista Boulevard, was very active and held its own on submarket vacancy, about 50% higher than the overall market average vacancy. Despite returning 16 newly vacated properties to I-80 East 17.46% 17.92% Vacancy North Valleys 22.68% 4.72% Vacancy Sparks - 34.27% 11.18% Vacancy Overall Market Vacancy: 9.52% the market, the area absorbed 18 new deals, making it the most active submarket in the quarter. The highest vacancy rate remains in the I-80 East Corridor submarket. Fernley leads the list with over 20% vacancy due to the departure of Amazon and A.R.E., leaving two large vacancies in a relatively smaller submarket. That results in a very high vacancy rate, which will quickly change when those two properties get reoccupied. The Tahoe Reno Industrial Park’s vacancy also jumped significantly due only to Zulily expanding to a much larger facility and a new 300,000 SF property coming on line. They are both very positive area impacts. We should not forget Tesla, Switch, Apple and the other recent economic impacts. We hear these names mentioned regularly by existing firm ownership and new firms alike, always in the context that the area is on a strong growth mode and they are glad to be here and committed to staying and thriving here. New build-tosuit and spec construction rises. Adequate supply for healthy demand. Reno, NV | mipnv.com | 775-828-4665 Outlook The Reno Sparks industrial real estate market showed strength in the area’s business recovery. While we cannot point to another group of mega deals that completed in Q1, we can report a gross market absorption of almost 900,000 SF. However, since the Reno market is well along in the new development phase, we are now experiencing significant new inventory coming on line and the raw statistics sometimes indicate a market picture that is inaccurate. In this quarter, vacancy is up from 8.77% to 9.52%, about an 8% increase. Half of this increase is from a new 300,000 facility in TRIC and Zulily moving from a 324,000 SF location into a far larger one. These are but two tangible signs of continued market growth. While we experienced a negative net absorption in Q1 of over 300,000 SF, expect local vacancy and absorption statistics to jump up and down through several of the next quarters due to significant new inventory coming on line through 2015 and as new deals take possession. Reno Central/West - 1.89% Airport - 11.89% 3.46% Vacancy Reno South - 12.12% 9.75% Vacancy 3.03% Vacancy Market Velocity Market Recovery Continues Market velocity normalizes, slowing rising prices/stable vacancy through 2015. 04.01.2015 Q2, 2011 Q3, 2011 Q4, 2011 Q1, 2012 Q2, 2012 Q3, 2012 Q4, 2012 Q1, 2013 Q2, 2013 Q3, 2013 Q4, 2013 Q1, 2014 1905557 851928 1404217 797897 1300616 1050898 1050898 890372 1134861 2401938 1858759 789777 458857 315633 524328 ‐499662 649441 218721 275368 5190 432466 1888843 1456491 0 Gross Net 3,000,000 3000000 Net Absorption -325,871 SF 2,500,000 2500000 2,000,000 2000000 1,500,000 1500000 1,000,000 1000000 Gross Gross Net Net 500,000 500000 0 Net Absorption 5 yr. avg. 300,563 0 ‐500,000 ‐500000 ‐1,000,000 ‐1000000 • Over 350% Lower than Q4 2015 • 60% Lower over Q1 2014 • Almost 200% Lower than 5-year Avg. Vacancy 9.52% 18.00% 16.00% Vacancy 5 yr. avg. 12.62% 14.00% 12.00% • 8% Higher than Q4 2014 (8.77%) 10.00% • Over 9% Higher than Q1 2014 (8.66%) 8.00% 6.00% • 32% Lower than 5-year Avg. (12.62%) 4.00% Sub-Market Breakdown - Q1, 2015 Sub-Market Size Vacant Vac. % Gross Abs. Net Abs. Spec Const. BTS Const. Total Const. North Valleys I-80 East Corridor Sparks Airport Reno Central/West Reno South 16,988,801 13,025,728 25,568,949 8,872,036 1,410,606 9,043,313 801,263 4.72% 2,334,569 17.92% 2,859,252 11.18% 864,924 9.75% 48,752 3.46% 273,826 7.44% 190,747 0 396,167 202,266 48,064 51,250 -35,761 -343,290 2,023 20,801 -10,059 36,555 0 300,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 300,000 0 0 0 0 TOTALS 74,909,433 7,129,854 888,764 -325,871 300,000 0 300,000 9.52% Reno, NV | mipnv.com | 775-828-4665 04.01.2015 Significant Transactions Q4 2014 Sales Transactions 2325 Market Street 400 Western Road 2920 Highway 40 W 3950 Mira Loma Drive 9748 S Virginia Street 690 E Glendale Avenue Lease Transactions Binyan, LLC OCE, LLC Chilkur, LLC Swammies, LLC Ingram Clark Prop. Berry Ents, Inc. 24,220 sf 61,152 sf 14,264 sf 7,296 sf 10,880 sf 7,200 sf $2,815,000 $116.23 psf Cascade Designs $2,350,000 $38.43 psf Almo Distributing $1,250,000 $87.63 psf Watts Water Tech. $1,245,000 $170.64 psf ACP $1,178,000 $108.27 psf Adv. Supply Chain Logistics $522,000 $72.50 psf Tenant Confidential 87,500 sf 74,800 sf 73,728 sf 66,000 sf 55,515 sf 51,520 sf Construction Construction continues to be hopping. Many developers are now into expanding their portfolio with few expressing much hesitation to add reasonable inventory into the mix, as long as current market velocity continues. The area’s total size increased by 300,000 SF last quarter with the addition of Conco’s expansion to 2777 USA Parkway in TRIC, bringing the Reno industrial real estate market to just under 75 million SF. The curtain is ready to rise on several new projects as well. Panattoni has Petco’s 707,000 SF build to suit in Red Rock well underway, plus a new 200,000 SF spec facility next door. Dermody, having filled their 624,000 SF with Amazon, is well along with new 402,000 SF and 224,000 SF spec buildings in Golden Valley. KTR is progressing with their new 566,000 SF spec facility in TRIC as well. This totals to over 2,100,000 SF of new Class A spec space coming on line in Q2 and Q3 2015. While it sounds like a massive amount of new product, it only takes a few large transactions to gobble that up quickly. 2015 Trending We expect to see continued new development as developers vie to get positioned with the newest Class A, ready-to-go product for the next mega sized lease transaction to come courting northern Nevada. Panattoni has a new North Valleys project ready to start for a 700,000+ SF spec facility. Dermody is preparing for a new 1 million SF project in the North Valleys. And SJS is prepping the site to start a new 694,000 SF facility in TRIC. All will address a very high eave height and a high LEED designation. This is another 2.4 million SF waiting in the wings, presenting an “if you build it, they will come” scenario. International fulfillment models require utilizing the latest business trends to gain competitive advantages, and northern Nevada has it waiting and ready to go in a business friendly environment area with long standing logistical advantages. 2015 Summer/Fall Forecast We are seeing a strong market velocity with transactions ranging across small, medium to large transaction size ranges. The medium-sized market growth is especially encouraging, since these tend to be the meat and potatoes type of business that can be highly conservative, commonly run by a small ownership group. To see these types of firms reentering the market as expansions from elsewhere indicates a highly broad based economic growth trend. This should combine with more e-commerce, mega-sized deals and continued small business growth. Overall, the northern Nevada market should experience a very healthy 2015. Tom Miller, CCIM [email protected] Brad Lancaster [email protected] Reno, NV | mipnv.com | 775-828-4665 Beki Sisco [email protected] 04.01.2015
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