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MYRO & MOUNTAIN TV
Survey: Performance of former GB government and
future political prospects
This survey has been conducted by Mountain Youth Resource & Social Welfare Organization (MYRO) & Mountain TV
Gilgit, Gilgit-Baltistan
Web: www.mountaintv.net
Survey: Performance of former GB government and future
political prospects
2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary .............................................................. 3
Introduction ........................................................................ 5
Methodology ........................................................................ 7
Survey Results ..................................................................... 9
Conclusion ..........................................................................20
Disclaimer ..........................................................................20
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Survey: Performance of former GB government and future
political prospects
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Mountain Youth Resource and Social Welfare Organization (MYRO)
and Mountain TV conducted this survey in a bid to unearth the
perception of the people of Gilgit-Baltistan, especially young men
and
women,
about
performance
of
the
former
government
of
Pakistan People’s Party in Gilgit-Baltistan. This endeavor also
included an attempt to reveal future political prospects in the
region
by
asking
certain
closed-ended
questions
from
the
respondents.
This study is grounded in quantitative research design whereby a
carefully
crafted
questionnaire
containing
18
closed-ended
questions was administered to a sample size of 400 individuals.
Simple random sampling method was adopted to select the survey
respondents. Even though people of all ages participated in the
survey, yet a majority of them turned out to be young men and
women.
The
survey
districts
was
are
conducted
concentrated
in
Gilgit
there;
because
however,
people
the
from
results
all
are
reflective of the perceptions and intentions of a majority of the
respondents from the districts of Gilgit, Hunza-Nagar, Ghizar and
Skardu. Effort was made to include people from all districts of
Gilgit-Baltistan in the survey. It is noteworthy that 44 percent of
the survey participants were women.
The questionnaire was made up of a majority of questions about
the
former
PPP
led
government’s
performances
in
GB,
their
governance and handling of the region’s major issues. Questions
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Survey: Performance of former GB government and future
political prospects
directed to know people’s plan for the 2015 general elections in GB
were also asked.
The collected bulk of data was run through SPSS
for analysis.
The overall findings of this survey suggest that young people were
not satisfied with the performance of the former GB government.
It
was
also
completely
found
new
that
the
government
youth
in
GB
specifically
as
a
wants
result
of
to
see
the
a
2015
elections. It was found that although majority respondents plan to
vote for Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf in the upcoming elections, yet
they see Hafiz Hafeez ur Rehman as the next chief minister of GB.
This may be reflective of the strongly held notion by the people of
GB that the party in power in the federation installs its own
government in GB.
Questions about identity, constitutional rights and status, and
power of GB government were also asked from the respondents.
Majority
powerless
unfairly
of
the
respondents
under
when
any
it
think
political
comes
to
party
that
and
the
GB
the
constitutional
government
region
status
is
is
treated
and
rights.
Majority of the respondents want GB to be treated at par with
other provinces with equal rights and representation.
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Survey: Performance of former GB government and future
political prospects
INTRODUCTION
Gilgit-Baltistan is a 72,496 square kilometers land situated in the
northern part of Pakistan with a population of around 13,00,000.
The region has been divided into 2 administrative units; Gilgit
and
Baltistan
divisions,
and
7
districts;
Gilgit,
Hunza-Nagar,
Ghizar, Astore, Diamer, Skardu and Ghanche. It shares borders
with China, Afghanistan and India, making it a strategic asset to
Pakistan.
Gilgit-Baltistan got independence from the rule of Maharaja Hari
Singh on November 1, 1947, as a result of a revolt launched by the
people of the region. After independence, the people of GB decided
to
join
Pakistan
and
on
November
16,
1947,
the
federal
government of Pakistan sent its administrator to run the affairs of
the region.
Since its independence, GB remains in a constitutional limbo. Its
fate has been linked with the Kashmir issue and stands in an
equivocal position in the international territorial dispute between
India and Pakistan.
It is excluded from the mainstream politics of
Pakistan, and denied political and legislative rights, triggering
identity
and
human
rights
crisis
in
the
region.
Denial
of
representation, identity and rights has left GB behind the rest of
Pakistan
when
it
comes
to
socioeconomic
and
political
development.
Since independence of GB, the federal government of Pakistan has
used several laws and political setups to administer the region,
such as the Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR), Northern Areas
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Survey: Performance of former GB government and future
political prospects
Council Legal Framework Order, Northern Areas Legal Framework
Order (LFO), formation of Northern Areas Legislative Assembly
(NALA),
and
finally
Gilgit-Baltistan
Empowerment
and
Self-
Governance Order 2009 that is currently enforced across GB.
The recent former political government that administered GB was
led
by
the
Legislative
PPP,
which
Assembly
won
the
(GBLA)
in
elections
of
November
Gilgit-Baltistan
2009.
The
party
completed its 5-year-long tenure in November 2014.
Through this survey, MYRO and Mountain TV attempted to reveal
perception
specifically
political
of
the
the
people
former
prospects
in
of
GB
about
PPP
led
government
the
region.
It
the
is
an
federal
of
government,
GB,
attempt
and
future
to
extract
people’s thinking about the political status of GB and legislative
and development works carried out by the former government in
the region besides getting to know the aspirations of the people
for a future government.
MYRO is a youth led organization established in 2010 with the aim
to
introduce
positive
changes
in
the
society
via
youth
empowerment, youth development and youth involvement in social
and
political
decision-makings.
The
organization
uses
unconventional methods, such as citizen journalism, social media,
workshops and discussion session, interactive theatre and public
services messages, to advocate for youth rights, women rights,
human rights, political rights and democracy, youth development
and education in the mountain areas of Pakistan.
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Survey: Performance of former GB government and future
political prospects
Mountain TV (www.mountaintv.net) is an initiative of community
journalism by the youth to serve the communities living in the
mountain areas of Pakistan. It aims to bridge the gap between the
mountain communities and mainstream media. It provides virtual
space for young men and women to bring into play alternative
ways of communicating events and issues.
METHODOLOGY
A quantitative research design was adopted to conduct this survey
whereby a carefully crafted questionnaire containing 18 closedended
questions
was
administered
to
a
sample
size
of
400
individuals. Simple random sampling method was adopted to select
the
survey
respondents.
Even
though
people
of
all
ages
participated in the survey, yet a majority of them turned out to be
young men and women.
The survey was conducted in Gilgit with the conviction that people
from
all
showed
districts
that
a
are
majority
concentrated
of
the
there;
respondents
however,
hailed
analysis
from
the
districts of Gilgit, Hunza-Nagar, Ghizar and Skardu. Effort was
made to include people from all districts of Gilgit-Baltistan in the
survey. 44 percent of the survey participants were women.
The questionnaire was made up of a majority of questions about
the
former
PPP
led
government’s
performances
in
GB,
their
governance and handling of the region’s major issues. Questions
directed to know people’s plan for the 2015 general elections in GB
were also asked.
for analysis.
The collected bulk of data was run through SPSS
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Survey: Performance of former GB government and future
political prospects
Respondents’ Age
Age groups surveyed
This
pie
group
part
of
in
shows
chart
shows
respondents
this
that
survey
a
the
who
age
endeavor.
majority
7%
took
of
It
21 - 28
the
29 - 36
respondents were youth, with 55
percent of them in the age group
of 21 to 28 years and 22 percent in
11%
37 - 45
46 - 53
5%
22%
55%
54+
the age group of 29 to 36 years.
Respondents’ gender wise breakup
Both male and female respondents
took part in the survey, but a
majority
of
them
were
male.
However, women participation in
the survey was appreciable with
men to women ratio of 56%to 44%
as shown in the pie chart.
Respondents' gender
wise breakup
Male
Female
44%
56%
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Survey: Performance of former GB government and future
political prospects
SURVEY RESULTS
1. How did the Pakistan People’s Party led government in GB
perform during their 5-year-long tenure?
Responses: A majority, 29 %,
of the respondents was of the
view
that
the
former
government
of
Pakistan
People’s party performed very
poorly.
However,
28%
respondents said the former
government
performed
satisfactorily while 27% think
that it performed poorly. This
finding
indicates
that
majority
respondents
disapprove of the former GB
government’s performance.
Performance of PPP led
government in GB
Very poorly
11%
Poorly
29%
Satisfactory
28%
Good
27%
Very Good
Q. Do you think that Gilgit-Baltistan moved
direction under the PPP led government?
Responses: 60 % respondents
who took part in the survey
think that GB did not move in
the right direction under the
former government while 23 %
said they don’t know. This
apparently
shows
that
a
majority of the respondents
think that the region did not
see enough development under
the
PPP
led
former
government.
5%
in
the
Right or wrong
direction?
Yes
23%
17%
No
Don't Know
60%
right
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Survey: Performance of former GB government and future
political prospects
3. Under the former PPP led government in GB, quality of the
region’s people:
Responses: 34 percent of the
participants think that quality
of life did not improve under
the former government while 31
percent said quality of life
somehow improved. It should be
noted that each respondent may
has
responded
according
to
his/her
understanding
and
definition of quality of life.
Change in quality of life
Improved to
Greater
Extent
Improved
7% 4%
10%
14%
Somehow
Improved
Did not
Improved
34%
31%
Worsened
Worsened to
Greater
Extent
4. How would you describe the former PPP government in
GB?
Responses:
Our
analysis
showed
that
a
majority
of
respondents,
66%,
surveyed
chose to describe the former
PPP led government as corrupt.
Description of PPP
government
It is pertinent to note that the
former PPP led government has
Effective
remained
in
the
news
for
Corrupt
corruption charges during their
Moral
5-year-long
tenure,
ranging
from
alleged
kickbacks
on
development project awards to
illegal
appointments
in
government departments. These
findings might be reflection of those allegations.
16%
66%
18%
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Survey: Performance of former GB government and future
political prospects
5. Do you think that the relation between GB government and
the federal government remained stable through the former
PPP government’s tenure?
Responses:
Responses
to
this
question show that a majority,
53%, respondents think relation
between the federal government
and former PPP led government in
GB did not remain stable during
their
5-year-tenure.
The
understanding
level
of
respondents
of
this
survey
is
somehow
counter
to
general
observations even though ups and
downs were observed at times
during the 5-year-long tenure.
Relation between GB
and federation under
PPP
6%
Yes
Don't Know
6. Please give a score to Syed
performance as Chief Minister of GB.
Responses:
Respondents
were
asked to give a score between 0
and 5 to Mr. Syed Mehdi Shah for
his performance as former Chief
Minister of GB. A majority, 41%,
of the respondents chose to give 0
out of a total of 5 marks to the
former CM. This indicates that
Mehdi Shah’s reputation has hit
an all time low among the youth of
GB.
41%
No
Mehdi
53%
Shah
for
his
Syed Mehdi Shah as CM
5% 5%
0 out of 5
1 out of 5
10%
41%
2 out of 5
3 out of 5
18%
4 out of 5
5 out of five
21%
Survey: Performance of former GB government and future
political prospects
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7. Which political party would you vote for in the upcoming
elections in GB?
Responses: A majority, 41%,
respondents said they plan to
Voting trends of
vote for Pakistan Tehreek-eelections 2015
Insaf (PTI) in the 2015 GBLA
4% 1% 1%
elections followed by 22% for
PPP
PML (N). This indicates the rise
PML(N)
11%
and popularity of PTI in the
16%
PTI
region, especially among young
PML(Q)
22%
men
and
women.
PTI’s
4%
APML
manifesto
of
change
is
apparently
getting
warm
MQM
reception
in
Gilgit-Baltistan.
41%
JUI
These
findings
also
indicate
JI
that young people of GilgitBaltistan have rejected political
parties rooted in religion, such as Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam(JUI)
and Jamat Islami(JI).
Cross tabulation of voting trend of different age groups for
elections 2015.
PPP PML(N) PTI PML(Q) APML MQM JUI JI Total Age (Binned) 21 -­‐ 28 28 44 95 10 35 7 1 1 221 29 -­‐ 36 10 23 30 3 14 4 2 2 88 37 -­‐ 45 2 11 21 3 6 2 0 0 45 46 -­‐ 53 2 3 12 1 6 3 0 0 27 54+ 3 8 5 0 3 0 0 0 19 Total 45 89 163 17 64 16 3 3 400 Cross tabulation
that a majority
Tehreek-e-Insaf,
that already has
of the voting trend for the 2015 election shows
of the respondents are set to vote for Pakistan
which is followed by Pakistan Muslim League (N)
government in the center.
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Survey: Performance of former GB government and future
political prospects
8. Who do you see as the prospective Chief Minister of GB?
Responses: It is interesting to
note that in the previous question
Prospective CM of GB
a majority of the respondents said
they plan to vote for PTI, yet a
11%
Syed Mehdi
majority respondents, 26%, see
Shah
Hafiz Hafeez ur Rehman as the
Hafiz Hafeez ur
28%
next Chief Minister of GB. The
Rehman
Ghazanfar Ali
respondents might be planning to
26%
Khan
vote for PTI, but are apparently
Hashmat Ullah
12%
thinking that PML (N) will win
23%
Others
the elections. Since PML (N) has
government in the center, these
responses also probably indicate
that the survey participants doubt
the federal government’s pledge of holding free and fair elections
in GB. This also indicates trust deficit between the government in
Islamabad and people of GB.
9. Compared to previous governments, how would you rate
the recent former PPP government in GB?
Responses: A majority of the
respondents
have
ranked
the
former PPP government in GB as
average in comparison to the other
previous governments of GilgitBaltistan.
This
indicates
indifference of the respondents
towards
virtually
all
political
parties that have governed GB in
the past. 35% respondents think
that the former GB government
performed worst than most of the
past governments in GB.
Governance
comparison
Average
35%
40%
Better than
most
Worst than
most
25%
Survey: Performance of former GB government and future
political prospects
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10. Do you approve the former PPP government’s handling of
GB’s economy?
Responses:
A
majority,
73%,
Handling of GB's
respondents disapproved of the
former
PPP
government’s
economy
handling of the economy of the
region. It should be noted that
formulation
of
most
of
the
27%
economic policies for the region
Approve
lie
in
the
center
and
GB
Disapprove
government has no control over
73%
major revenue generation sectors
of the region, including tourism,
cross-border
trade
and
power
generation. These factors might
have played role in shaping people’s perception about the former
government’s handling of the economy of GB.
11.
Do
you
approve
of
the
former
GB
government’s
contribution to the health care sector of the region?
Responses:
A
majority
respondents
of
this
survey
Contribution to
disapproved of the former GB
healthcare
government’s contribution to the
region’s healthcare sector. This
indicates
that
the
former
government has failed to even
32%
cater to the basic needs of the
Approve
people, healthcare being on top
Disapprove
of the list. Shortage of doctors,
68%
lack of medicines, poor hospital
facilities and services, and even
nonexistence of dispensaries and
hospitals in some areas may have shaped people’s thinking about
the former government’s contribution to healthcare sector of GB.
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Survey: Performance of former GB government and future
political prospects
12.
Do
you
approve
of
the
former
GB
government’s
contribution to the education sector of the region?
Responses: A majority, 70%, of
respondents disapproved of the
former
GB
government’s
contribution
to
the
region’s
education
sector.
This
shows
deep frustration of the survey
participants about the former
government’s
handling
of
the
education sector.
Contribution to
education
30%
Approve
Disapprove
It should be noted that the
70%
education department of GilgitBaltistan has remained in the
news for alleged corruption and
illegal appointments throughout
the 5-year-long tenure of the
former government. There are 2,189 schools in Gilgit-Baltistan,
out of which 419 are in the private sector, with an enrolment of
68,392 students and 2,758 teachers. (Source: Gilgit-Baltistan
Education Statistics 2011–12. Directorate of Education, GilgitBaltistan)
13. During the former PPP government’s tenure, your overall
economic condition:
Responses: A majority of the
respondents,
48%,
saw
no
improvement
in
their
overall
economic conditions under the
former PPP led government in GB
while 23% participants said their
economic condition improved.
Overall economic
condition
Improved
drastically
7% 5%
Improved
Did not
improved
17%
23%
Worsened
Worsened
drastically
48%
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Survey: Performance of former GB government and future
political prospects
14. Who did you vote for in the last election?
Responses: Majority respondents,
39%, said they voted for PPP in
Vote in the last
the last elections while 19% voted
PPP
election
for PML (N). This endorses the
PMLN
0%
1%
official vote results of the last
PTI
elections whereby PPP won the
13%
polls and made government in GB.
PMLQ
8%
39%
It is interesting to note that only
APML
6%
14% respondents voted for PTI in
MQM
the last elections whereas the
14%
vote
trends
for
the
upcoming
JUI
19%
elections show 41% respondents
JI
ready
to
vote
for
PTI.
This
indicates a drastic change on the
political arena of GB. These findings apparently show that the
last elections’ PPP voters have switched allegiance and plan to
vote for PTI this time around.
15. The GB government made enough legislation under the
PPP government’s tenure.
Responses: Legislation is the
most
important
function
any
elected assembly is tasked with.
Majority
of
the
respondents,
33%, disagreed when given the
statement that the former PPP
government in GB made enough
legislation during its tenure.
Legislations under
former government
Strongly agree
9% 8%
Agree
Neither agree
nor disagree
23%
33%
Even though the Gilgit-Baltistan
Disagree
Council enjoys more power than
27%
Strongly
the Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative
Disagree
Assembly and leaves almost no
room for the assembly to make
legislation on important matters, yet findings shows that young
respondents under this survey apparently became critical of the
legislative assembly on those statutory matters that were under
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Survey: Performance of former GB government and future
political prospects
their jurisdiction. Moreover, these findings also corroborate
findings from previous studies that people in GB hold accountable
lack of political will and incompetence of elected representatives
as a factor that provided room for the center dominated GB
Council, the federal government and the bureaucracy to run the
affairs of GB.
16. The GB government is powerful under any political party.
Responses:
A
majority
respondents, 35%, disagreed
with the statement that the
GB government is powerful
under
any
political
party
while 25% agreed with the
statement.
It should be noted that power
over
the
financial,
constitutional
and
administrative affairs of GB
lie
with
the
GB
Council,
which is general viewed in
the
region
as
a
supraconstitutional body.
Power of GB govt. under
any political party
Strongly agree
11%
Agree
Neither agree nor
disagree
9%
25%
35%
Disagree
Strongly disagree
20%
The
federal
government
dominates GB Council. It is a 15-member body and the federal
government appoints 8 of the members while the prime minister of
Pakistan nominates the remaining 7 members from GB. The people
of the region elect none of the council’s members.
Far-reaching power lies in the hands of the council’s chairman
(the prime minister of Pakistan). People in GB generally think
that the council exercises all-embracing power over the assembly
and trims its freedom for legislation and decision making on
important matters.
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Survey: Performance of former GB government and future
political prospects
17. Gilgit-Baltistan enjoys equal rights as other provinces of
Pakistan.
Responses: Majority of the
survey
participants,
39%,
disagreed with the statement
that GB enjoys equal rights as
other provinces of Pakistan.
Rights of GB
Strongly agree
Agree
Since the strategic region has
no
representation
in
the
National Assembly and Senate
of Pakistan, and its status
remains
ambiguous,
young
people of GB specifically seem
to be more aware of the rights
denied to them.
7%
28%
15%
Neither agree
nor disagree
11%
Disagree
Strongly
disagree
39%
According to a recent research by Syed Waqas Ali and Taqi
Akhunzada, “sustained denial of constitutional and political rights
under the pretext of the Kashmir conflict has led to a deep
suspicion of the federal government and its treatment of the
people of Gilgit-Baltistan.” It further noted that “participants in
the FGDs believe that their narrative of identity is not being
heard and given due importance in larger Pakistani political
discourse.”
The people of GB generally think they are held in statutory
borderline, and deprived of basic rights just under the excuse of
Jammu
and
Kashmir
conflict.
There
apparently
exists
an
egalitarian discrepancy and young people increasingly feel
susceptible to exploitation and debarred from legislation for their
rights, decision-making and mainstream politics in Pakistan.
Survey: Performance of former GB government and future
political prospects
19
18. Do you want equal constitutional status and national
representation for Gilgit-Baltistan as the other provinces of
Pakistan?
Responses:
Majority
of
respondents, 82%, want equal
constitutional
status
and
national representation for GB
as other provinces of Pakistan
while 18% respondents chose
not
to
associate
GB
with
Pakistan.
Constitutional status
for GB
18%
Yes
No
This indicates that majority of
the people in GB want it to be
82%
the fifth province of Pakistan
with
equal
rights
and
representation
as
other
provinces. This finding can further be reinforced by the findings
by the recent research whereby virtually “82 per cent of the youth
surveyed preferred to call themselves Pakistanis and disassociate
themselves from the larger Kashmiri identity.”
Survey: Performance of former GB government and future
political prospects
20
CONCLUSION
This survey revealed that the people of Gilgit-Baltistan, especially
young
men
and
women,
are
highly
dissatisfied
with
the
performance of the former government of PPP in the region.
Majority of the respondents surveyed disapproved of the former
government’s handling of important matters of the region,
including legislative affairs, healthcare, education, efforts for
economic and political rights of the people besides overall
administrative performance. Majority respondents also think that
the former GB government was marred by corruption and failed to
deliver services to the people.
The survey also revealed that majority participants had voted for
PPP in the previous election, but now they intend to vote for PTI.
However, it was also found that majority respondents see PML (N)
as a party set to form government in the region.
It was also found that the youth of GB is not happy with the
federal
government
of
Pakistan
when
it
comes
to
the
constitutional rights and status of the region.
Participants of the survey think that the GB government is weak
under any political party until and unless they are given identity
and representation in mainstream politics of Pakistan. A majority
of the respondents want GB to enjoy equal status and national
representation as other provinces of Pakistan.
DISCLAIMER
The results, findings, opinions and conclusion in this document
are those of the participants, respondents, and authors and not
necessarily reflect the views of MYRO and Mountain TV. The
surveyors want to make it clear that the survey was conducted in
Gilgit city and falls short of participants’ representation from
several districts. We also want to make it clear that MYRO and
Mountain TV have no political intentions and affiliations.