COUNTY GOVERNMENT OF NANDI COUNTY TREASURY MEDIUM TERM FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER FY 2015/2016, 2016/2017 AND 2017/2018 ACHIEVING EQUITABLE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN NANDI COUNTY FEBRUARY 2015 NANDI COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2015 Page 1 Foreword This Fiscal Strategy Paper, the second since the operationalization of the County Governments, sets out the County policy goals and strategic priorities that will form the basis for formulation of the County’s Budget for 2015/16 Financial Year and the Medium Term Strategic Goals. The Paper is prepared in accordance with the Public Finance Management Act, 2012. The paper is being prepared at a time when the County Government has put most structures in place despite enormous challenges in implementing the first programme based budget. After implementation of the 2013/2014 line based budget which was much simpler and flexible in its implementation, the current approach to budgeting though complex is the best in financial management. The biggest challenge remains to be our recurrent costs that still stand way over 60% of the total revenue. As eluded earlier in the 2014/2015 paper, the county is yet to implement an effective organization structure. This definitely has an effect on financial efficiency. The County priorities and goals outlined herein are based on the County Integrated Development Plan, sectoral plans and the Governor’s Manifesto, with emphasis on investment in Infrastructure, access to clean water, accessible health care, sustainable farming with emphasis on dairy and value addition on dairy products, increased investor and business confidence necessary to encourage investment, education particularly (artisan) technical education through village polytechnics, wealth and employment creation. These priorities shall form the basis for formulation of 2015/16 FY budget and the Medium Term Planning Framework. The paper therefore links the County plans and policies to the Budget which is the main objective of the Medium Term Expenditure Framework. It is worth noting that the County Government made a significant increase in its actual recurrent expenditure on the employment of ECD teachers, this goes a long way in improving both the child education and social wellbeing of families and the County at large. The paper covers the following broad areas in the review of the fiscal performance of financial year 2014/2015; highlights of the recent economic developments and the economic outlook both locally and internationally; broad strategic priorities and policies for the Medium Term and the Medium Term Fiscal Framework. The fiscal framework presented in the paper ensures a sustainable financing while allowing continued spending on priority programmes. Achievement of the set programmes and objectives calls for greater transparency, effectiveness, efficiency and economy in public financial management in order to ensure fiscal discipline and deliver value for money raised. CHARLES K. MUGE CEC –FINANCE, ECONOMIC PLANNING & ICT NANDI COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2015 Page 2 Legal Basis for the Preparation of the Fiscal Strategy Paper The Fiscal Strategy Paper is published in accordance with section 117 of the Public Finance Management Act, 2012 which states that: a) The County Treasury shall prepare and submit to County Executive Committee the County Fiscal Strategy Paper for approval and the County Treasury shall submit the approved Fiscal Strategy Paper to the County Assembly, by 28th February of each year. b) The County Treasury shall align its County Fiscal Strategy Paper with the National objectives in the Budget Policy Statement c) In preparing the County Fiscal Strategy Paper, the County Treasury shall specify the broad strategic priorities and policy goals that will guide the County Government in preparing its budget for the coming financial year and over the Medium Term. d) The County Treasury shall include in its Fiscal Strategy Paper, the Financial Borrowing for the Financial year and over the Medium Term. e) In preparing the Fiscal Strategy Paper , the County Treasury shall seek and take into account views of : i. ii. iii. iv. The Commission On Revenue Allocation (CRA) The Public Any interested persons or groups: and Any other forum that is established by legislation f) Not later than fourteen days after submitting the County Fiscal Strategy Paper to the County assembly, the County assembly shall consider and may adopt it with or without amendments g) The County Treasury shall consider any recommendations made by the County Assembly in finalizing the budget proposal for the financial year concerned. h) The County Treasury shall publish and publicize the County Fiscal Strategy Paper within seven days after it has been submitted to the County Assembly . NANDI COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2015 Page 3 Fiscal Responsibility Principles in the Public Finance Management Law The Public Finance Management (PFM) Act, 2012 sets out the following fiscal responsibility principles to ensure prudence and transparency in the management of public resources; i. The County Government’s recurrent expenditure shall not exceed the County government’s Total Revenue. ii. Over the Medium Term, a minimum of thirty percent of the county government’s budget shall be allocated to the Development expenditure. iii. The County Governments' expenditure on wages and benefits for its public officers shall not exceed a percentage of the County government's total revenue as prescribed by the Executive Committee Member for Finance in regulations and approved by County Assembly. iv. Over the Medium Term, the government's borrowing shall be used only for the purpose of financing development expenditure and not for recurrent expenditure v. The county debt shall be maintained at sustainable level as approved by County Assembly vi. The fiscal risks shall be maintained prudently; and vii. A reasonable degree of predictability with respect to the level of tax rates and tax bases shall be maintained taking into account any tax reforms that may be made in the future. NANDI COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2015 Page 4 Overview This Budget Policy Statement (BPS 2015) is the second to be prepared under the County government of Nandi. It sets out the priority programs of the Nandi County government to be implemented in the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) under a devolved system of Government and proposing a review on the current budget with a view to improving efficiency and service delivery. This CFSP is framed against a backdrop of the new financial governance framework in the country under the Constitution of Kenya and the Public Finance Management Act, 2012. Its also prepared in view of improving global `economic prospects though the world economy is showing signs of uneven and sluggish recovery this year. Global growth is now projected to strengthen gradually from 3.3% in 2014 to 3.8% in 2015 driven by advanced economies as per the World Economic Outlook (WEO). Although the Euro area has exited recession, growth remains anaemic, hampered by high unemployment, large debt stocks and tight private sector borrowing conditions. Despite declaration in 2014, growth in emerging markets and developing economies is projected to increase modestly in 2015 at 5 %, supported by stronger demand and some recovery in global demand. Given the economic challenges, growth is expected to remain robust at 5% in 2014 and 5.75% in 2015, in Sub-sahara Africa, while economies of East African Countries are expected to grow at an average of 5.5% in 2015 driven by sustained infrastructure investment, buoyant service sector and strong agricultural production. In a few countries, economic activities are facing headwinds from the recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa and more recently the general macro-economic imbalances. Kenya has maintained economic stability and fiscal discipline even in face of fiscal pressure where the growth prospects remain strong given that inflation has been contained at single digit, interest rates are trending downwards, exchange rates broadly stable despite the downward risks associated with sluggish global recovery. These together with renewed investor confidence in the country following the prevailing peaceful environment accelerate economic growth and creation of more jobs. The recent reduction in fuel prices is expected to improve productivity in general and reduce cost of living given that the resilience built over the years on account of sound macroeconomic management has helped sustain Kenya’s economic growth which grew by 5.1% in 2013 and now expected to expand to 5.3% in 2014, rising to 6.9% in 2015 and 7.0% over medium term. The global and country events have a direct impact in the economic front in our county. In line with the Constitution 2010 and PFM Act 2012, Nandi County has developed Integrated Development Plan with clearly set priorities to be implemented within 2013-2017 plan period to foster county’s development agenda. The fiscal policy strategy recognizes that available resources are scarce and hence the need to focus only on the County Government’s priority programs that have the highest impact on the stated objectives, but within a framework of a sustainable and a stable macroeconomic environment. This will be achieved by maintaining a strong revenue effort and containing the growth of total expenditure, while shifting composition of expenditure from recurrent to capital expenditure and NANDI COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2015 Page 5 eliminating unproductive expenditures. It will also be achieved by containing the growth in the public spending to a sustainable level in order to channel resources towards development programmes. Expenditure Management: As part of economic transformation, the public expenditure reforms will be deepened to improve efficiency and effectiveness in utilization and execution of the budget. This will entail rationalizing public expenditures to remove overlaps and wastages, in all County Departments and public agencies, developing and enforcing cost benchmarks for projects and consumables, entrenching performance benchmark of at least 80% of the development budget, and strengthening the program based budget. Expenditure tracking and value for money audits will be undertaken regularly to ensure efficiency in use of resources of the government. The Monitoring and Evaluation Framework which has been put in place shall play a crucial role in this process The Fiscal Strategy Paper identifies the broad strategic priorities and policy goals that will guide the County Government in preparing its budget for Financial Year 2015/2016 and the Medium Term Strategic Objectives as set out in the Integrated Development Plan. The paper discusses the performance of the Financial Year 2014/15 budget which forms the basis for projecting the financial outlook with respect to the County Government revenues and expenditures for financial year 2015/2016 and over the medium term. The County priorities outlined in the paper shall form the basis for formulation FY 2015/16 budget and the Medium Term goals and priorities. The fiscal framework ensures adherence to principles of public finance and fiscal responsibility principles as set out in the Constitution and the Public Finance Management Act 2012 respectively. Specifically, the development to recurrent expenditures has been maintained within the required ratios of 30:70. Further the expenditures are fully funded from the allocation from the National Government and county own revenue. In achieving county goals, prudency in use of public resources will be exercised. The paper covers the following broad areas; review of the fiscal performance of financial year 2014/2015; highlights of the recent economic developments and the economic outlook; broad strategic priorities and policies for the Medium Term and the Medium Term Fiscal Strategy Framework. The priorities outlined in the Paper are in line with the priorities set out in the Budget Policy Statement, namely: i. ii. iii. iv. Scaling up investment in key infrastructure areas e.g. roads networks and water supplies Making piped water available to all citizens of Nandi County. Investing in improved and quality health care and education, including the inception of a medical training centre. Getting involved in the improvement of quality support and quality audit of sporting activities and the development of sporting facilities. NANDI COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2015 Page 6 The broad key strategic priorities identified for implementation in the medium term are in line with the focus areas of the Medium Term Plan which include: employment creation, expansion and improvement in quality education, health and sports, increased investment and modernization of Infrastructure. In order to achieve the set objectives, the county will employ greater transparency, effectiveness, efficiency and economy in management of public resources in order to ensure fiscal discipline as stipulated in the constitution of Kenya 2010 and the PFM Act 2012. Performance of FY 2014/15Budget This section covers the performance of the FY 2014/15 budget for the period July 2014 to January 2015. The County revenue for the said period was mainly from the National Government allocation as provided in the County Allocation of Revenue Act, 2014 and the County own revenue which consists of property rates, entertainment taxes and fees and charges as provided in the County Finance Act, 2014. The expenditure units during the year were the County Assembly and the County Executive consisting of the Governor's office, the Deputy Governor’s office, the Public Service Board, and Public Finance Management staff in the following areas; i. Department of Transport and Infrastructure. ii. Department of Land, Environment and Natural Resources iii. Department of Health and sanitation iv. Department of Trade, Investment and Industrialization Development v. Department of Youth, Sports and Social Services vi. Department of Tourism, Culture and Co-operative Development vii. Department of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries viii. Department of Finance, Economic Planning and ICT ix. Department of Devolved Units and special programmes x. Department of Education, Research and Vocational training NANDI COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2015 Page 7 The table below summarizes the performance of FY 2014/15 Budget as at end January 2015. Table 1: Performance of FY 2014/15 Budget as at end January 2015. BUDGET PERFORMANCE for FY 2014/2015 as at 31-Jan-2015 FY 2014/2015 1 ACTUAL EXPENDITURE As at 31/01/2015 BALANCE As at 31/01/2015 4585,232,340 2,832,445,868 1,752,786,472 4,313,232,340 2,718,400,835 1,594,831,505 63 4,058,551,882 2,718,400,835 1,340,151,047 67 TOTAL REVENUE 1.1 National Government Allocation 1.1.1 Equitable share % utilization PRINTED ESTIMATES 59.2 1.1.2 Loans and Grants -CRA 120,799,558 120,799,558 0 1.1.3 Rural Electrification - CRA 133,880,900 133,880,900 0 1.1.4 Level 5 hospital - - 1.1.5 - - Donor Financed 1.2 Own revenue 2 TOTAL EXPENDITURE 2.2 RECURRENT 114,045,033 157,954,967 24.2 5,190,313,940 2,667,337,235 2,522,976,705 51.4 2,782,150,941 1,317,107,524 1,465,043,417 47.3 472,000,000 2.2.1 COUNTY EXECUTIVE 263,357,000 112,238,938 151,118,062 42.6 2.2.2 Devolved units and Special Programs 79,415,000 31,278,943 48,136,057 39.4 2.2.3 Finance and Economic Planning and ICT 638,674,202 290,080,286 348,593,916 45.4 2.2.4 Agriculture,Livestock and Fisheries Education Research and Vocational 2.2.5 Training 243,439,052 108,094,293 135,344,759 44.4 91,214,400 32,820,226 58,394,174 36.0 2.2.6 Health and Sanitation Trade ,Industrial Development and 2.2.7 Investments 693,782,000 392,836,758 300,945,242 56.6 52,940,017 15,074,983 37,865,034 28.5 NANDI COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2015 Page 8 Roads,Transport ,Infrastructure and 2.2.8 Public Works 159,482,952 66,696,233 92,786,719 41.8 Youth,Gender and Social Services Tourism ,Culture and Co-Operative Development Land,Housing ,Environment and Natural Resources 73,674,000 34,778,237 38,895,763 47.2 27,149,000 5,832,708 21,316,292 21.5 50,266,372 15,538,312 34,728,060 30.9 Public Service and Labour 44,996,000 13,650,870 31,345,130 30.3 County Assembly 363,760,946 198,186,737 165,574,209 54.5 2,408,162,999 1,350,229,711 1,057,933,288 2.3.1 County Executive 206,080,000 109,113,596 96,966,404 52.9 2.3.2 Devolved units and Special Programs 114,400,000 23,281,861 91,118,139 20.4 2.3.3 Finance and Economic Planning and ICT Agriculture and Livestock ,Vetinary 2.3.4 Services and Fisheries Education Research and Vocational 2.3.5 Training 49,020,000 10,431,662 38,588,338 21.3 138,330,000 29,408,613 108,921,387 21.3 168,400,000 68,282,246 100,117,754 40.5 2.3.6 Health and Sanitation Trade ,Industrial Development and 2.3.7 Investments Roads,Transport ,Infrastructure and 2.3.8 Public Works 364,250,000 204,896,745 159,353,255 56.3 89,020,000 44,889,751 44,130,249 50.4 541,000,000 469,513,239 71,486,761 86.8 2.3.9 2.3.1 0 2.3.1 1 2.3.1 2 Youth,Gender and Social Services Tourism ,Culture and Co-Operative Development Land,Housing ,Environment and Natural Resources 174,080,000 69,616,031 104,463,969 40.0 69,020,000 27,948,522 41,071,478 40.5 295,000,000 277,883,415 17,116,585 94.2 County Assembly 199,562,999 14,964,030 184,598,969 7.5 3 Budget Surplus=1-2 324,918,400 165,108,633 2.2.9 2.2.1 0 2.2.1 1 2.2.1 2 2.2.1 3 2.3 DEVELOPMENT NANDI COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2015 56 Page 9 The revised budget approved by the County Assembly for the financial year 2014/15 was for Kshs 5,190,313,940. The recurrent and development expenditures were 54% and 46% of the total budget respectively. Total expenditures for personnel emoluments amounted to Kshs.1, 467,745,232 translating to 52.76 percent of the total recurrent expenditures and 28.27 percent of the total budget. Revenues The approved expenditures were to be financed from two main sources: the allocation from the National Government and County own revenue. These were projected at Kshs. 4,058,551,882 and Kshs. 472 million respectively. Performance of Revenue As at the end of January 2015, cumulative revenue (both national and local) receipts amount to Kshs. 2.8 billion against a target of Kshs. 5.1 billion translating to 54 percent of the set target. The fair performance has been mainly supported by timely disbursement of revenue from National Government. To date, no donor financing has been released but it is expected that the rest of the allocation from National Government will be disbursed on time. Low collection of revenue was due to delay in enactment of the Finance Act 2014, delayed deployment, reorganization and placement of staff, effects of change in administration and limited resources for supervision. All these challenges are being addressed and the revenue performance is expected to improve for the rest of the financial year. To this end, performance targets and reward schemes have been developed to reward good performance. Expenditure Performance The County recorded a performance (excluding commitments) of 47 percent of the approved expenditures on Recurrent and 56% on Development for the first seven months of the financial year. The recurrent expenditures were within the set targets. NANDI COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2015 Page 10 Fiscal outlook to end June 2015 Expenditures As per the PFM Act 2012, the budgetary ceilings set by the CRA in conjunction with the OCOB; the county complied with the requirements set out for the preparation of Programme Based Budget of 2014/2015 and has been able to work within the set programmes. We anticipate saving on recurrent expenditure which will be rolled to the next financial year to fund development. Revenues Despite the low performance of revenues, the county remains optimistic that the revenue target for financial year 2014/2015 will be met. This is based on the trend on collection of revenue for the first half as illustrated in Diagram 1 below. The allocation from National Government is expected as per the County Allocation of Revenue Act, 2013. Diagram 1:Performance of revenue July – Jan 2015: (Kshs Millions). In July the County never received any funding from the exchequer due to delayed budget preparation and hence its execution. To overcome the challenges of revenue shortfall against expenditure pressures, the county will step up efforts on collection of revenue. Some of the measures put in place include enhancing collections arrears particularly in the areas of cess collections in form of unremitted cess, improvement of parking sites and enhancement of property rates collection. In addition, automation of revenue collection is on an advanced stage. The County shall further rationalize some expenditure so as to create savings for the additional expenditures. Specifically, most recurrent expenditure shall not be increased except of the annual increment in wage bill and to cater for new recruitments where there is need. The additional funding NANDI COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2015 Page 11 requirement on development expenditures will be met through reallocations from programs with low absorption capacity which shall not adversely affect the priorities intended to be achieved by the budget. Budgetary challenges encountered in the current year (2014/2015). The implementation of this budget was not without challenges. During the period under review, the following challenges were encountered; - Delays in the disbursement from National government. - Shortfall in collection of local revenue more specifically on cess where the rates are pending approval upon receipt of stakeholders’ input. - Budget implementation started at slow pace in the early months of the year as the staff in the various ministries and departments were learning on the programme based budgeting - Unclear devolved functions due to lack of specific guidelines on devolved functions. - Public expenditure pressures especially on recurrent expenditure thus limiting the continued funding for development expenditure. NANDI COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2015 Page 12 Strategic Priorities over the Medium Term Budget estimates for the FY 2014/2015 and over the Medium Term, shall be based on the priorities outlined herein which are guided by the County Integrated Development Plan (CIDP) and aimed at accelerating growth, employment creation, poverty reduction and security. The County fiscal policies will remain supportive of growth while at the same time continuing with the fiscal discipline to ensure mobilization of adequate revenue to support the county expenditures. Main areas of intervention over the medium term will include: i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii. viii. ix. x. Agriculture and rural development – Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries Development. Roads, transport and public works – Infrastructure, mainly on roads and water Supporting Investment and Trade Security Provision of Health and Sanitation Services Provision of Water and Spring/water catchment protection. Lands and Environment – Energy, Lands, forestry and Wildlife, Research and Development. Public Service Tourism development – identifying and developing existing tourist attraction sites. Promotion of Education, Research and Vocational Training Boost Agricultural Productivity Investing in Agricultural sector not only promotes economic growth but also ensures food security, job creation, income generation and overall poverty reduction. The sector is the mainstay of the County economy with linkages in manufacturing, distribution and other service related sectors. The County therefore aims at raising agricultural productivity and increase commercialization of agriculture. This will be achieved through improvement of land use and crop development, enhanced accessibility to affordable farm inputs, adding value to agricultural produce and link the farmers to markets for their produce, extension services, use of environmentally friendly products, promotion of agro based industries and development of post - harvest farm management systems. Continuing Investment in Infrastructure Infrastructure is key in achieving investment, increased production, access to essential services and overall economic growth. The County will address infrastructure challenges by accelerating ongoing infrastructure development in maintaining and rehabilitating infrastructural facilities so as to improve efficiency and effectiveness of the infrastructure development process at all levels of planning, contracting and construction. This will be achieved through continued provision of resources to support provision of energy, roads, Information Communication and Technology etc. This will ensure increased Private sector participation NANDI COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2015 Page 13 in the relevant sectors with the Public Private Partnerships Legislation further improving investment climate, productivity and competitiveness. Priority programmes in this sector include: Rehabilitating rural access roads, Road Network expansion and upgrading programme, maintenance of existing road network, developing new and renewable energy technologies, and Develop ICT infrastructure. Supporting Investment and Trade Trade is a key productive sector due to its immense potential for wealth and employment creation as well as poverty reduction. Given its catalytic effect to sustained inclusive growth and huge potential for job creation and poverty reduction, the County Government will deepen business regulatory reforms, facilitating capacity building, simplifying and modernizing regime for small and medium businesses in order to amplify their multiplier effect on employment opportunities and accelerating growth. Further, the county will focus on industries that are labour intensive, with the potential to expand and increase market opportunities for small and medium industries. Strategic efforts will be made to diversify markets by providing an environment conducive for business and ensuring that there is investor confidence. This will be achieved through development of policy, legal and institutional reforms for the development of the sector, support entrepreneurship and industrial development and promote exports. In addition specific measures will be undertaken to provide incentives to both local and international investors in order to position Nandi County as the premier investment hub in the country. Other measures will include maintaining law and order and providing security. Local businesses will be promoted through promotion of agro-based industries, training of entrepreneurs and enhanced licensing of businesses. To this end, the upcoming investment shall play a crucial role in showcasing Nandi County as a preferred investment hub and destination. Security Programme Security is a foundation for stability, individual social welfare and economic development by creating investor and business confidence. The county will coordinate with the national government with a view to improving this area. The programme is expected to enhance the provision of efficient and effective services to the people of Nandi and facilitate an enabling environment for other sectors to thrive in. Provision of Health and Sanitation Services In line with Vision 2030, the county shall ensure provision of equitable and affordable healthcare at the highest affordable standards. In the medium term, the County government will seek to address health related challenges through continued investment in training of health professionals, providing high quality preventive, curative and rehabilitative healthcare services to all, sanitation infrastructure and NANDI COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2015 Page 14 improvement in the working conditions of medical practitioners. Emphasis will be laid to preventive health which is crucial for the control of diseases. Achievement of this will involve construction and upgrading of health facilities, and procurement of medical inputs, management of childhood illnesses through sensitization and provision of immunization services and create awareness through campaigns. Provision of water and Sanitation The County Government will ensure increased access to water through expansion of the existing water schemes, construction of dams along permanent rivers and seasonal rivers, purification and desalination of water and development of water storage capacity in form of construction and supply of tanks and finally ensure sanitation improvement. Maximizing the use of the County's Natural Resources Efficient use of natural resources is central to economic social and cultural development. Due to the finite nature of these resources they should be conserved and utilized in a sustainable manner. The County shall undertake strategies aimed at conserving the environment and natural resources and also ensure provision of reliable and affordable energy through exploration of environmentally friendly and renewable energy sources; and rehabilitation and protection of water resources. Public Service The County will promote best labour practices in recruitment, allocating, motivating and effectively utilizing human resources for improved public service delivery and promote public service integrity. Promotion of Tourism and Culture The county Government put in place strategies to develop tourism infrastructure that can serve both local and international visitors. This will include improving the quality of tourism facilities and developing areas with greatest potential to attract tourists. Such programs include rehabilitation of existing sites, construction of monuments of our heroes and heroines, marketing the existing tourism attractions and promoting our cultural heritage including sports. Some of the initiatives already put in place like the Kamatargui conservancy, the Kapsabet stadium etc shall be fast- tracked. Promotion of Education, Research and Vocational Training Over the medium term the county shall endeavor to increase access to quality early childhood education through subsidized cost of education, and training of the staff. The county will also direct resources towards renovations of ECD centers in rural areas and village polytechnics, ensuring improved and effective youth participation in all structures of decision making and establishing project management committees. The County Government shall move with speed to complete the already started ECDE classrooms constructions. NANDI COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2015 Page 15 Medium Term Fiscal Framework Improvements recorded by the National Government inform of easing of inflation, lower interest rates and stable exchange rates are expected to spill over to the county inform of improved economic growth with the national growth projected at 5.8%, 6.4% and 7% in 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively. The recent trends noted on the reduction of fuel prices is expected to result into multiple benefits especially reduction in farm inputs and thus improved food security and income. Revenue Projections The County’s sources of revenue include: Equitable share The equitable share is an unconditional allocation to the County Governments from the revenue generated by the National Government as provided for by the constitution. The County is fully responsible for these funds and is directly accountable to the County Assembly on how the resources under her control are spent. Equitable share from the National Government is estimated at Kshs. 4,640,399,187 during the FY 2015/16. This is derived from the draft Budget Policy Statement and will be firmed up when the BPS is finally approved by the National Assembly. Conditional and Unconditional grants: These may be given as additional allocations from the National Government's share to which the National Government may or may not attach conditions in the FY 2015/16. Own revenues The county shall impose property rates, entertainment taxes, as well as other tax and user fees and charges as they shall be approved by the County Assembly. The County own revenue is projected at Kshs. 350.2 million. This is based on the current trend of revenue collection and other revenue measures to be instituted. Total revenue available to fund the expenditure is therefore projected at Kshs. 5.296 billion in FY 2015/16 increasing to Kshs. 5.825 billion and Kshs. 6.408 billion in FY 2016/2017 and FY 2017/2018 respectively. NANDI COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2015 Page 16 Expenditures Recurrent expenditures Kshs. 2.914 billion is projected to be spent on Recurrent Expenditures in the FY 2015/2016 and Kshs. 2.380 billion on development translating to 55% and 45% respectively. Recurrent expenditures are projected to increase to Kshs. 3.166billion and Kshs. 3.487billion in FY 2016/17 and FY 2017/18 respectively. This translates to 51 percent of the total budget, reducing by 2percent in FY 2016/17. Development expenditures Total development expenditures shall account for 45 percent in FY 2015/16 increasing to 49 percent in FY 2016/17. These expenditures will go towards implementation of the county development programs as indicated earlier. The outturn below provides the projected County Resource Envelope for FY 2015/2016 and subsequent years:- NANDI COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2015 Page 17 MEDIUM TERM FISCAL FRAMEWORK FY 2015/16, 2016/17 to 2017/18 Printed Estimates 2014-2015 1 TOTAL REVENUE 1.1 National Government Allocation Medium Term Projections 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 4,785,232,340 5,296,215,737 5,825,837,310 6,408,421,041 4,313,232,340 4,946,015,737 5,440,617,310 5,984,679,041 4,058,551,882 4,640,399,187 5,104,439,106 5,614,883,016 1.1.2 Loans and Grants -CRA 120,799,558 144,959,470 159,455,417 175,400,958 1.1.3 Rural Electrification - CRA 133,880,900 160,657,080 176,722,788 194,395,067 1.1.4 Level 5 hospital - - - - 1.1.5 - - - - 472,000,000 350,200,000 385,220,000 1.1.1 Equitable share Donor Financed 1.2 Own revenue 2 TOTAL EXPENDITURE 2.2 RECURRENT 423,742,000 5,190,313,940 5,294,339,498 5,784,548,581 6,367,862,015 2,782,150,941 2,914,136,998 3,166,325,831 3,487,816,990 2.2.1 COUNTY EXECUTIVE Devolved units and Special 2.2.2 Programs Finance and Economic Planning and 2.2.3 ICT 263,357,000 385,601,256 389,457,269 79,415,000 50,230,600 50,732,906 55,806,197 638,674,202 515,060,145 566,566,160 623,222,775 2.2.4 Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries Education Research and Vocational 2.2.5 Training 243,439,052 160,500,420 176,550,462 194,205,508 91,214,400 160,145,230 176,159,753 193,775,728 2.2.6 Health and Sanitation Trade ,Industrial Development and 2.2.7 Investments Roads, Transport ,Infrastructure and 2.2.8 Public Works 693,782,000 845,608,430 930,169,273 1,023,186,200 52,940,017 30,469,526 33,516,479 36,868,126 159,482,952 100,400,256 110,440,282 121,484,310 NANDI COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2015 433,261,571 Page 18 2.2.9 Youth, Gender and Social Services Tourism ,Culture and Co-Operative 2.2.10 Development Land, Housing ,Environment and 2.2.11 Natural Resources 73,674,000 45,600,200 50,160,220 55,176,242 27,149,000 27,420,490 30,162,539 33,178,793 50,266,372 45,600,245 50,160,270 55,176,296 2.2.12 Public Service and Labour 44,996,000 36,500,200 40,150,220 44,165,242 2.2.13 County Assembly 363,760,946 511,000,000 562,100,000 618,310,000 2,380,202,500 2,618,222,750 2.3 DEVELOPMENT 2,408,162,999 2,880,045,025 2.3.1 County Executive Devolved units and Special 2.3.2 Programs Finance and Economic Planning and 2.3.3 ICT Agriculture and Livestock ,Vetinary 2.3.4 Services and Fisheries Education Research and Vocational 2.3.5 Training 206,080,000 190,140,800 209,154,880 230,070,368 114,400,000 81,500,000 89,650,000 98,615,000 49,020,000 189,510,200 208,461,220 229,307,342 138,330,000 80,600,000 88,660,000 97,526,000 168,400,000 100,500,000 110,550,000 121,605,000 2.3.6 Health and Sanitation Trade ,Industrial Development and 2.3.7 Investments Roads, Transport ,Infrastructure and 2.3.8 Public Works 364,250,000 417,892,500 459,681,750 505,649,925 89,020,000 89,910,200 98,901,220 108,791,342 541,000,000 546,410,000 601,051,000 661,156,100 2.3.9 Youth, Gender and Social Services Tourism ,Culture and Co-Operative 2.3.10 Development Land, Housing ,Environment and 2.3.11 Natural Resources 174,080,000 175,820,800 193,402,880 212,743,168 69,020,000 49,710,000 54,681,000 60,149,100 295,000,000 347,650,000 382,415,000 420,656,500 2.3.12 County Assembly 199,562,999 110,558,000 121,613,800 133,775,180 3 NANDI COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2015 1,876,239 362,021,628 40,559,027 Page 19 In 2015/2016 we anticipate spending highly on Health and Sanitation with an allocation of 24% of the total expenditure followed by Roads and infrastructure with 12.2% the least being the department of Public service and labour whose allocation is approximately 1%. Note; The ceilings for the County Assembly and County Executive on Recurrent expenditures are varying subject to Commission on Revenue Allocation Ceiling in consultation with the Office of the Controller of Budget recommendations in respect to the FY 2015/2016 and its subsequent years in the Medium Term Expenditure Framework. Criteria for Resource Allocation Overall, the expenditure projections are based on the following principles: Mandatory obligations: this takes first consideration and includes salaries for County officers. The expenditures are based on the current wage bill with a growth of 5% to take care of any pending recruitment that may be deemed necessary in the course of the financial year. Operations and maintenance: Departments are allocated funds for basic operations and maintenance calculated at 30% of the total personnel emoluments. Development expenditure: Development expenditure will be funded from the equitable share of the national revenues and locally obtained revenues. Development expenditures are shared out on the basis of the County Integrated Development Plan, the Governors manifesto and other intervention to deal with unemployment and remove constraints to faster growth. In determining the departmental ceilings on development expenditure, the following guidelines shall apply: Completion of on - going Programs and projects: emphasis will be given to the completion of the on-going projects and in particular projects with high impact on key priority areas, poverty reduction, employment and wealth creation. Strategic policy interventions: Priority will also be given to policy interventions to achieve social equity, environmental conservation and other priority areas. NANDI COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2015 Page 20 Assumptions 1. That the National Assembly and Senate shall approve the equitable allocations as proposed by CRA 2. There shall be political stability in the Medium Term. 3. The Economic trend both locally and internationally shall be sustained. 4. The County shall experience/enjoy stakeholder support through the period of projection. 5. Costs to services shall be maintained at reasonable levels. CONCLUSION The fiscal framework presented in this paper ensures a sustainable financing while allowing continued spending on priority programmes. Achievement of the set objectives calls for greater transparency, effectiveness, efficiency and economy in public financial management in order to ensure fiscal discipline. In future, while addressing the development needs of the people of Nandi, emphasis shall be on the priorities as laid out in the C.I.D.P for both short term and Medium Term expenditure/planning framework. Further, emphasis shall be accorded to areas considered as priority by the residents of Nandi as fronted through public forums, recommendations and memoranda. The County Treasury, in all these, shall continue to discharge his responsibility as spelt out in the constitution and the PFM Act and any other laws on Public Financial Management that may come into play from time to time. NANDI COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER 2015 Page 21
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