NAPTP Investor Conference May 22, 2015 Joseph W. Craft III Chief Executive Officer Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information that are based on the beliefs of Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. and Alliance Holdings GP, L.P. (the “Partnerships”) and those of their respective general partners (the “General Partners”), as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to them. When used in this presentation, words such as “anticipate,” “project,” “expect,” “plan,” “goal,” “forecast,” “intend,” “could,” “believe,” “may,” and similar expressions and statements regarding the plans and objectives of the Partnerships for future operations, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Although the Partnerships and their General Partners believe that such expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable at the time such statements are made, neither the Partnerships nor the General Partners can give assurances that such expectations will prove to be correct. Such statements are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and assumptions. If one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or if underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those the Partnerships anticipated, estimated, projected or expected. The Partnerships have no obligation to publicly update or revise any forwardlooking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. 2 Two Ways to Invest in Alliance Management / Others (a) 70.8% L.P. Interest Alliance Holdings GP , L.P. 29.2% L.P. Interest (NASDAQ: AHGP) 59.9 million units outstanding 1.98% General Partner Interest (b) IDRs 41.9% L.P. Interest Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (NASDAQ: ARLP) 74.2 million units outstanding Public Unitholders 58.1% L.P. Interest Public Unitholders Cash flow growth from ARLP operations drives distribution growth for all unitholders AHGP ownership of Incentive Distribution Rights provides leverage to growth at ARLP __________________ (a) Includes control group comprised of present members of Alliance management and others, all of whom are subject to a transfer restrictions agreement (b) Includes general partner interest held directly in ARLP’s Intermediate Partnership. 3 Alliance Partnership Profiles NASDAQ Symbol: ARLP AHGP Unit Price: $31.97 $49.27 LTM/YTD Unit Price Change: Annualized Distribution: (31.4)%/(25.7)% (22.9)%/(19.1)% $2.65 $3.75 Distribution Yield: 8.3% 7.6% Coverage Ratio: 1.6x 1.0x Debt/EBITDA (LTM): 1.1x - Mkt Cap/Ent Value: $2.4B/$3.2B $2.9B/$2.98B Asset Profile: • First & largest publicly-traded master limited partnership involved in the production and marketing of coal • 3rd largest eastern coal producer with 40.7 million tons produced in 2014 • 1.6 billion tons of reserves at March 31, 2015 • Ownership Interests in ARLP 100% of Incentive Distribution Rights 1.98% G.P. Interest 15.5 million ARLP common units ~41.9% of ARLP units outstanding Market data as of February 27, 2014 NASDAQ close Market data as of May 19, 2015 NASDAQ close 4 4 The Alliance Strategy for Success 14 Consecutive Years of Record Performance ~ Create Sustainable Growth in Cash Flow and Deliver Consistent Growth in Distributions to ARLP and AHGP Unitholders Focus on ~ Low-cost operations High return organic development projects Disciplined acquisitions Strong Balance Sheet 5 5 Alliance Assets Diversified producer and marketer of coal to major U.S. utilities and industrial users Pennsylvania Illinois Indiana Ohio 10 9 11 Pattiki Complex 2. River View Complex 3. Dotiki Complex 4. Warrior Complex 5. Hopkins Complex 6. Gibson Complex 6a. Gibson North Mine 6b. Gibson South Mine 7. Sebree Mining Complex 8. MC Mining Complex 9. Mettiki Complex 13 Maryland 6a 6b 1. West Virginia 1 10. Tunnel Ridge Complex 2 12 7 3 4 5 Kentucky 8 Virginia 11. Investment in White Oak Resources 12. Sebree Reserve Project 13. Penn Ridge Project Illinois Basin Mount Vernon Transfer Terminal Appalachia 6 Alliance Has Consistently Delivered ~ ARLP Coal Tons Sold ARLP Coal Tons Produced Million Tons Million Tons ARLP Revenues ARLP EBITDA Dollars in Billions Dollars in Millions 7 7 Cash Flow Growth Drives Performance 28 Consecutive Quarters of Increased Distributions ~ ARLP Distribution Per Unit $2.75 CAGR 10.6% $2.50 $2.25 $2.00 $1.75 $1.50 Coverage ratio 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Q1 1.9x 1.8x 1.4x 1.6x 1.7x 1.6x Source: Company filings Company filings - 2010 through 2014 distributions paid per unit adjusted for 2:1 unit split. 2015 Q1 distribution declared annualized. 8 8 IDRs Enhance Growth at AHGP AHGP Distribution Per Unit $4.00 CAGR 14.6% $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Q1 Source: Company filings Company filings - 2010 through 2014 distributions paid per unit . 2015 Q1 distribution declared annualized. 9 9 Coal Industry Update Industry Headline Issues Coal sector performance Regulatory impact Natural gas competition 11 Coal Sector Performance Metallurgical coal producers levered up in 2011, adding ~$10B of incremental debt just as met coal prices peaked Metallurgical coal prices have fallen by nearly half, leaving significant amounts of production uneconomic Total Debt Met Export Volume vs Price 80 $200 70 $20,000M $180 60 $10,000M $5,000M $160 50 40 $140 30 Price ($/st) Million Short Tons $15,000M $120 20 $0M $100 10 2010 2011 Thermal Producers 2012 2013 2014 $80 0 2010 Met Producers Source: ARLP analysis, EIA. Thermal heavy producers ARLP, Armstrong, CLD, CNX, FELP, HNRG, WLB, WMLP; Metallurgical heavy producers ACI, ANR, BTU, ICO, JRCC, MEE, PCX, RNO, WLT 12 2011 2012 Met Exports 2013 Met Price 2014 Source: EIA Coal Sector Performance Coal markets have weakened for thermal producers and equity performance has come under recent pressure, but thermal producers have fared better than metallurgical-heavy peers Debt/EBITDA 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2010 2011 2012 Thermal Producers 2013 2014 Met Producers EBITDA/Interest Expense 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2010 2011 Thermal Producers 2012 2013 2014 Met Producers Source: ARLP analysis 13 Impact of Regulations on Future Coal Demand Regulations (predominantly MATS) will lead to ~57GW of eastern U.S. coal capacity being retired by 2020 Excess capacity of remaining 181GW of eastern U.S. coal plants can more than offset retiring capacity Final GHG rules scheduled to be released summer of 2015 Ultimate impact is uncertain Litigation Congress Governors Source: ARLP analysis 14 Future U.S. Coal Demand Expected to be Relatively Stable 1,200 Million Tons 1,000 800 600 400 200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Utilities 2015 Exports 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Other Source: EIA – 2015 Annual Energy Outlook, April 14, 2015 15 15 Coal & Natural Gas Will Continue to Dominate U.S. Power Generation and Compete for Market Share Electric Generation Coal vs Gas Market Share 80% 1,200 70% 60% 800 50% 40% 600 30% 400 20% 200 Utility Coal Consumption (million tons) Electricity Generation Market Share 1,000 10% ‐ 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 Coal 2012 2013 2014 Natural Gas Source: EIA – 2015 Annual Energy Outlook, April 14, 2015 16 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Utility Coal Consumption 16 Cost Competitiveness of Eastern Basins ILB and NAPP production costs have consistently been near or below $1.50/mmBTU ILB production costs were $1.36/mmBTU in 4Q 2014 Substantial amount of ARLP production is at the low end of ILB and NAPP basins CAPP continues to struggle to compete Average Cash Cost by Basin $3.50 $3.00 $/mmBTU $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 ILB CAPP 17 NAPP Source: EVA NYMEX Natural Gas May 19, 2015 18 Nov‐2016 Sep‐2016 Jul‐2016 May‐2016 Mar‐2016 Jan‐2016 Nov‐2015 Sep‐2015 Jul‐2015 May‐2015 Mar‐2015 Jan‐2015 Nov‐2014 Sep‐2014 Jul‐2014 May‐2014 Mar‐2014 Jan‐2014 Nov‐2013 Sep‐2013 Jul‐2013 May‐2013 Mar‐2013 Jan‐2013 Nov‐2012 Sep‐2012 Jul‐2012 May‐2012 Mar‐2012 Jan‐2012 Nov‐2011 Sep‐2011 Jul‐2011 May‐2011 Mar‐2011 Jan‐2011 Henry Hub Price per MMBtu Price Competitiveness of Eastern Coal Basins with Natural Gas $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 ILB and NAPP Coal Competes $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 ILB and NAPP Capturing Market Share from CAPP Current low gas prices and tepid power demand environment Eastern utility consumption expected to stabilize at ~250M tons ILB and NAPP expected to maintain the market share captured from CAPP Capacity can grow by 20 million to 50 million tons in response to higher natural gas prices or increased electricity demand Sources: EIA actual consumption through February 2015 and ARLP Analysis 19 Natural Gas Prices to Rise in Short Term Average gas price of $2.86/mmBTU in 2015 expected to increase to $3.38/mmBTU in 2016; $4.26/mmBTU in 2017 Anticipated gas price increase driven by decline in E&P capital budgets Reduced well economics due to lower gas and oil prices 38% decline in gas-directed rig count Anticipated reduction in associated gas production due to 58% decline in oil-directed rig count Several producers not completing DNP wells due to low prices Hedges rolling off Source: EVA May 2015 Quarterly Overview of Natural Gas Industry 20 Alliance is Well Positioned for the Future ARLP is a Preferred Supplier Reliable performance history Strong balance sheet Multiple transportation options Direct rail – CSX and NS Direct barge – Ohio and Green Rivers Truck and Mt. Vernon transloading facility Wide range of coal specifications Heat content – low, mid and high BTU products (11,000 to 12,500) Sulfur – 1.5% to 3.0+% Favorable trace elements – low chlorine Contract flexibility Quality mix Volume optionality Multiple sourcing options 22 22 Reserve Decisions on the Horizon Pittsburgh 8 producers ~20 million tons of current capacity will either deplete or require recapitalization by 2020 Substantial portion of those tons serve river markets Tunnel Ridge is well positioned with a 20+ year mine life with its current reserve base ILB producers ~10 million to 20 million tons of current capacity either depleting, requiring recapitalization, or out of the money on the cost curve ARLP’s ILB platform well positioned to capture this market share 23 Recent Coal Reserve Acquisitions Added 660 million tons to Illinois Basin platform… Enhanced reserve platform provides opportunities to Optimize existing Illinois Basin operations Develop future organic growth projects in response to improved market conditions Existing Reserves Acquired Reserves Source: Company filings Source: ARLP filings and estimates as of March 31, 2015 24 24 Excess Capacity Available ARLP can respond rapidly to improved market conditions 55.0 Production Tons (Millions) 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 2011 2012 Actual / Projected 2013 White Oak 2014 2015 (e) Excess Capacity Note: 2015 (e) based on midpoint of current guidance provided on April 28, 2015 Company filings and projections White Oak sales tons will not be included in ARLP’s reported volumes. However, production from White Oak will provide ARLP with cash flows from royalties, coal processing fees and priority distributions from its equity investment Source: ARLP filings and estimates 25 25 Alliance Investment Thesis Why Alliance? The MLP Coal Investment leveraging…. Clear strategy and focus Sustainable competitive advantages Strategically located operations Low cost producer Strong customer relationships Solid balance sheet Exceptional track record 14 consecutive years of record operating and financial performance 28 consecutive quarters of distribution growth Well covered distributions providing high yield to investors 27 27 Coal Keeps the Lights On
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