Assessing Nuclear Proliferation: Estimates of Nuclear Weapons Latency
William S. Charlton, Ph.D.
Director, Nuclear Security Science and Policy Institute, Texas A&M University System
Professor, Nuclear Engineering Department, Texas A&M University
Seminar Abstract: The proliferation of nuclear weapons is the gravest threat to
international security. The international community makes use of various methods to
combat this threat including treaties and agreements between states, systems and devices
to detect proliferation, and analysis tools to predict proliferation and manage risks. In
this seminar, Dr. Charlton will introduce the fundamentals of nuclear proliferation and
present a novel analysis toolset that was developed by Texas A&M University for
assessing proliferation. This tool estimates a state’s Nuclear Weapons Latency using a
stochastic Petri Net simulation. We defined Nuclear Weapons Latency as the expected
time to be taken by a non-nuclear weapons state to develop a conventionally deliverable
nuclear weapon given the state’s position on a path toward or away from a nuclear
weapon and accounting for the state’s motivations and intentions. Potential proliferation
time is taken as a representation of the latent proliferation capacity of a non-nuclear
weapons state. An assessment of proliferation time is critical to crafting an effective
policy response within a useful time frame. Results from analysis of both historical
examples and current proliferation issues will be presented including recommendations
on U.S. policy options towards potential proliferant states.
Speaker Biography: Dr. Charlton is a Professor in the Nuclear Engineering Department
at Texas A&M University and also serves as the Director of the Nuclear Security
Science & Policy Institute (NSSPI). NSSPI is a multi-disciplinary research and
education organization focused on combatting threats from the malicious uses of nuclear
and radiological materials. He is an expert in the area of nuclear security research and
education and teaches courses on nuclear nonproliferation, nuclear security system
design and analysis, nuclear forensics, and nuclear materials measurements. Prior to his
appointment at TAMU, he was an Assistant Professor in the Mechanical Engineering
Department at the University of Texas at Austin from 2000-2003. From 1997-2000, Dr.
Charlton was a Technical Staff Member in the Nonproliferation and International
Security Division at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). He remains heavily
involved with many of the National Laboratories including: consultation on national
security projects, providing human capital, collaborating with laboratory staff on funded
research projects, and providing continuing education and training opportunities for
laboratory employees. Dr. Charlton earned a Ph.D. in Nuclear Engineering from Texas
A&M University. Among his many awards, Dr. Charlton was named the George
Armistead Jr. ’23 Faculty Fellow at TAMU in 2005, was awarded the Dwight Look
College of Engineering Faculty Fellow in 2007, was recognized as the Advisor of the
Year by the TAMU Division of Student Affairs in 2009, earned the Special Service
Award from the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management in 2010, and was named the
Barbara and Ralph Cox ’53 Faculty Fellow for the TAMU College of Engineering in
2013. Dr. Charlton is recognized as one of the leaders in the technical area of nuclear
nonproliferation education and research. He has over 200 technical publications in
refereed journals and conference proceedings.