Global Supply, Demand & Price Outlook of Oils & Fats Presentation at the 81st Annual Convention of NIOP on March 16, 2015 there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at the airport Thomas Mielke, Executive Director of ISTA Mielke, Oil World, Global Market Research on Oilseeds, Oils and Meals, E-mail <[email protected]> 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de Company Profil and Services ISTA Mielke GmbH – publisher of OIL WORLD - was founded in 1958 ISTA = International STatistical Agricultural Information Leading private authority for global research and market analyses for oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals Independent, not involved in trading, unbiased information there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at Providing quarterly the airportworld supply and demand balances Daily, weekly and monthly publications on www.oilworld.de We are now also offering a Chinese OIL WORLD in Mandarin. 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Take 1st-hand information from us, because we generate & analyze the global data 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de Veg oil prices have fallen to 5-year lows Monthly Prices of 4 Oils (in US-$/T) 205 0 190 0 may have bottomed in 175 0 160 0 early Febr 2015 145 0 Palm oil discounts vs 130 0 Arg soya oil narrowed 115 0 100 0 for the new crop. 850 Is that sustainable? 700 Financial uncertainties 550 400 250 Economic crisis in 100 China and oth ctries '98 SBO Du tch Sun oil EU Rape oil D utch CPO cif R'd am '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Jan uary 19 98 until mid-March 2015 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de Monthly Prices of 4 Oils (in US-$/T) 205 0 190 0 175 0 160 0 145 0 130 0 115 0 100 0 850 700 550 400 250 100 SBO Du tch Sun oil EU Rape oil D utch CPO cif R'd am In the short and medium term, palm oil can hardly react to declining prices But producers of sun oil and rape oil have done that (farmers and crushers resonding) Supply response '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Jan uary 19 98 until mid-March 2015 Tug-of-war between the bearish demand and the bullish supply fundamentals 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de RAPESEED & CANOLA Farmers have reacted, cutting back plantings of high yielding oilseed World Production (MnT) and Area (Mn ha) 70 65 For example rapeseed 60 Production in EU, Ukraine & India 55 50 And probably also in there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at 45 Canada this spring the airport 40 35 World production of 30 rapeseed to decline by 25 2-3 Mn T in 2015/16 20 15 97/98 95/96 01/02 99/00 05/06 03/04 Area 09/10 07/08 13/14 11/12 15/16F 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de Bearishness emanating from the energy sector Brent (ICE): Daily Futures of Crude Mineral Oil First position in US-$ per barrel 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Ja14 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja15 Feb Mar Daily futures from 2 Jan 2014 until 12 Mar 2015 Daily Prices of Gas Oil & Crude Palm Oil (US-$/T) 1050 1000 950 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 ICE Gas Oil (spot) Crude palm oil, cif R'dam Ja14 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oc t Nov Dec Ja15 Mar Mar Daily prices from January 2014 until 11 Mar 2015 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de The graph shows the boost in production of biodiesel since 2004 In 2014 production exceeded expectations and rose 2.4 Mn T to 29.8 Mn T Decline of 0.8-1.0 Mn in 2015 - - > for first time ! Plus reductions of oils & fats use for electricity production World Production of Biodiesel (Mn T) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de In 2014: Palm oil usage in biodiesel 9.7 Mn T (32% of all feedstock used) and 16% of world PO usage Soya oil 8.1 Mn T and 18% of total soya oil use Rapeseed oil 6.4 and 24% Biodiesel Production (Mn T) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 F EU-28 9.3 9.6 10.3 11.4 10.7 USA 3.2 3.3 4.5 4.1 4.1 Argentina 2.4 2.5 2.0 2.6 2.0 Brazil 2.4 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.5 Indonesia 1.4 1.9 2.6 2.9 3.1 Others 3.8 4.6 5.4 5.8 5.5 Total 22.5 24.3 27.4 29.8 28.9 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de Biodiesel Production (Mn T) Indonesia is the major swing factor to be watched in 2015 Last Friday new propsal released to raise domestic biodiesel to B15 ! 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 F EU-28 9.3 9.6 10.3 11.4 10.7 USA 3.2 3.3 4.5 4.1 4.1 Argentina 2.4 2.5 2.0 2.6 2.0 Brazil 2.4 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.5 Indonesia 1.4 1.9 2.6 2.9 3.1 Others 3.8 4.6 5.4 5.8 5.5 Total 22.5 24.3 27.4 29.8 28.9 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de World stocks of soybeans likely to rise to a record 90 Mn T at the end of 2014/15 season Are we at the beginning of a longer period of surplus stocks and depressed prices? Still, world soybean crushings could not be raised sufficiently Soybeans: Wo rld Stocks as o f end-Aug ust (Mn T) 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 99 5 1 99 7 1 99 9 2 00 1 2 00 3 2 00 5 2 00 7 20 09 20 11 20 13 2 01 5 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de ARGENTINA: Soybean Stocks (Mn T) 8 7 Daily Selling Prices of Argentine Peso per 1 US-$ 16 Stocks as of March 1 Inofficial exchange rate Official exchange rate 14 6 12 5 4 3 10 there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at the airport 8 2 6 1 4 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jly Sep Dec Mar May Jly Oct Mar Daily selling prices from 2 July 2013 until 11 March 2015 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de In my opinion we have seen the lows for soya oil futures. Soybeans supported by lack of farmer selling and, late Febr, by the Brazilian strike CBOT: Daily Soya Oil Futures (c/lb) CBOT: Daily Soybean Futures (c/bu) 1300 45 1250 May 2015 position 1200 40 50-day moving average 1150 there somebody to pick me 35 up tomorrow at the airport 1100 1050 30 1000 May 2015 position 950 50-day moving average 25 900 Jun14 Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja15 Feb Mar Daily futures from 2 June 2014 until 12 March 2015 Jun14 Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja15 Feb Mar Daily futures from 2 June 2014 until 12 March 2015 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de CBOT: Daily Indices of Soybean Complex 1 October 2014 = 100 130 Soya Meal May 15 120 110 Soybeans May 15 100 90 Soya Oil May 15 80 Oct Nov Dec Ja15 Feb Daily indices from 1 Oct 2014 until 12 March 2015 Mar 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de CBOT: Daily Indices of Soybean Complex 12 March 2014 = 100 120 110 Soya Meal May 15 100 90 Soybeans May 15 80 Soya Oil May 15 70 Mar14 Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja15 Feb Mar Daily indices from 12 March 2014 until 12 March 2015 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de CBOT: Daily Soybean Futures (c/bu) 1300 1250 May 2015 position 1200 50-day moving average 1150 1100 Soybean prices were surprisingly firm already in Nov and Dec, despite the huge US crop -Reserved farmer selling in the US, Argentina, … there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at have become an -Farmers the airport important market factor 1050 1000 950 900 Jun14 Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja15 Feb Mar Daily futures from 2 June 2014 until 12 March 2015 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de Farmers dissatisfied with prices. Have become reserved sellers. Arg crush in Jan+Febr 15 very small (slow exports) Silo bags have become widespread in Argentina and - - now also in Brazil 1) Usually 200 Tonnes 2) Soybeans can be stored for one year without major quality issues 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de Source: Diario de Cuiaba, Mato Grosso - > the truckers‘ strike in Brazil from Febr 18 until early March was the worst in 15 years 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de Huge Chinese buying also supported soybean prices In CHINA oilseed output will continue to decline in 14/15 to a 15-year low - Crush boost (98 Mn) CHINA: Oilseed Output & Crushings 100 90 Production (Mn T) Crushings (Mn T) 80 70 - Agricultural land is shrinking every year 60 - Farmers switch to other crops, mainly to grains 40 50 30 20 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 14/15F 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de CHINA: Imports of Oilseeds and Oils & Fats 90 CHINA: In domestic supply deficit 80 Mn T Oilseeds 70 Booming imports in 14/15: Soybeans 75 Mn T Rapeseed 4.5 Mn But vegetable oil imports declining (cutting stocks), mainly of soya and rapeseed oils. Palm oil imports recover 60 50 40 30 Oils & Fats 20 10 0 93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 14/15 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de China and India largely dependent on Palm Oil Imports CHINA: Imports of 17 Oils & Fats (Mn T) 12 10 Soya oil Palm oil Others 8 6 4 2 0 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15F 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 INDIA: Imports of 17 Oils & F ats (Mn T) 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Others Soya oil Palm oil 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15F 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de 10 OILSEEDS: Ample world supplies of oilseeds in 2014/15 season 10 Oilseeds: World Output & Ending Stocks Change from a Year Ago (Mn T) 900 50 Production (y1) End stocks (y1) Prices (y2) 40 800 Output & stocks rising in 3rd season in a row 30 20 600 And again in 2015/16? 10 500 0 400 -10 300 -20 200 Prices have declined to multi-year lows ! - >Bearishness already discounted ? 700 Soybean prices -30 100 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de In past 16 years production of soybeans almost doubled to 312 Mn (now 60% of all oilseeds), up 28 Mn vs 13/14 2014/15 production (Mn T): Rapeseed 69.1 (-1.1 Mn T) Sunflower 41.0 (-2.3 Mn T) Groundnuts 27.2 (-1.4 Mn) Cottonseed 44.2 (+0.5 Mn) 10 Oilseeds: World Production (Mn T) 350 330 310 Soybeans 290 270 250 230 210 190 170 Other 9 oilseeds 150 130 110 90 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15F 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de SOYBEANS Soybeans: Production and Area SOYBEANS Our current soybean crop estimates 2014/15 (vs 13/14) in Mn T: USA 108.0 Mn T (vs. 91.4) Brazil 93.8 (vs. 86.1) Argentina 54.5 (vs. 52.0) India 8.7 (vs. 8.8) China 12.0 (vs 12.0) World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha) 320 Production 280 240 200 160 120 80 World: 312 Mn T (vs 284) Harvested Area 40 96/97 94/95 00/01 98/99 04/05 02/03 08/09 12/13 06/07 10/11 14/15F 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de Soybean Production in the USA and South America SOYBEANS USA: big jump in output on higher area + yields in 2013 and 2014. But future growth will be limited by lack of acreage Most of the production growth in the future must come out of S. America. But will it really? Soybean Crop Trend Since 74/75 (Mn T) 160 140 120 100 80 U.S.A. 60 40 Argentina, B razil & Paraguay 20 0 75/76 81/82 87/88 93/94 99/00 04/05 09/10 14/15F 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de Summary of the Global Outlook in 2014/15 World supplies of soybeans ample (+37 Mn T) in 2014/15. For all other oilseeds other than soybeans we estimate: world production -3.5 Mn T (vs +13.2) and crushing -2.3 (vs +10.2) Reduced softseed crush will have significant impacts on global vegetable oil production. Rising dependence on soybeans - - we will be crushing for oil - - but soybeans are a meal seed - - bullish on the oil share Markets are in transition - - > oilmeals prices set to fall to stimulate demand in April/Sept 2015, but veg oil supply relatively tight 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de Crush of all 9 oilseeds (other than soya) is set to suffer a drop of 2.3 Mn T in 2014/15 vs. a boost of 10.2 in 2013/14 10 Oilseeds : World Crushings (Mn T) 260 240 220 This will have a major impact on oils & fats 200 More soya oil will be required, boosting the world soya crush by 14.0 Mn T in 2014/15 (vs +12.6), and creating a surplus in oilmeals 160 180 Soybeans 9 other seeds 140 120 100 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 October / S eptem ber 14/15F 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de Only a below-normal growth in world production of 2.0 Mn T is expected for 2014/15 (against +11.4 in 2013/14) 17 OILS & FATS: Production Change From Year Ago in Mn T 12 10 In 14/15 annual growth in palm oil production only half of average growth Production deficit, keeping veg. oils prices at a rel. high premium vs. mineral oils 8 6 4 2 0 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15F Oc t ober / Sep te m ber 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de The growth in production is slowing down in 2014/15: World Production of 4 Major Oils Change on Year in Mn T 4 Palm oil will probably show the smallest output growth in 3 13 years (+1.4 Mn T) Sun oil production will decline by 0.9 Mn T versus a boost of 2.7 Mn T in 2013/14 2 1 0 Olive oil -0.8 Mn T (vs +0.9) -1 Biggest increase in soya +2.1 Palm Oil Sun Oil Soya Oil Rape Oil -2 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 October / Septem ber 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de Palm oil the most important oil today In 2014/15 PO & PKO account for 33% of world output & 62% of exports (48 Mn) On only 6% of the area But the prices of PO still largely depend on S & D of other veg oils plus on energy prices and energy policies 17 OILS & FATS : W orld Production (Mn T) 70 Palm oil 60 50 40 30 Soya oil 4 An imal F ats 20 10 0 93/94 96/97 9 Other oils Rape o il Sun oil 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 14/15F 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de PALM OIL : Production in Key Countries (Mn T) For Oct/Sept 2014/15 we estimate production in Mn T: Malaysia 19.3 (vs 20.1) Indonesia 32.4 (vs 30.5) _________ Output in Jan/Dec 2015: Malaysia 19.7 (vs 19.6) Indonesia 32.9 (vs 30.8) 33 30 Malaysia Indonesia 27 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015F Janua ry / Decem ber 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de In 2014/15 below-average growth in supplies in the 2nd consecutive year - Result in rel. high price premiums of palm oil over crude mineral oil - and explains the small discount to soya oil - Higher seed oil output required, most of which has to come from soybeans (a meal seed) PALM OIL : World Supplies Annual Change (Mn T) 5,5 5 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 October/September 12/13 14/15F 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de World Production of 17 Oils & Fats 2014/15 - - 202.0 Mn T 1991/92 - - 83.5 Mn T Palm Oil 14,2% Palm Oil 30,0% Soya Oil 23,0% Rape Oil 11,4% Soya Oil 20,1% Sun Oil 9,9% Rape Oil 13,3% Sun Oil 7,7% PKO&CNO 5,2% Others/An.Fats 21,0% Others/An.Fats 39,3% PKO&CNO 4,9% 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de World Production of 12 Oilmeals 1990/91 - - 137 Mn T 20014/15 - - 317 Mn T Soya meal 50,7% Soya meal 62,7% Rape meal 10,3% Others 27,3% Others 18,5% Sun meal 7,1% Rape meal 12,1% Fish meal 4,6% Sun meal 5,4% Fish meal 1,3% 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de 12 Oilmeals: World Production (Mn T) 210 200 Soyameal 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 Other 11 oilmeals 110 100 90 80 70 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15F 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de 12 OILMEALS : World Production Change from Previous Season (in Mn T) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 Soyameal 11 Other Meals 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15F 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de The prospective growth in world consumption in 2014/15 is set to exceed the growth in production ! 17 OILS & FATS: Production & Demand Change From Year Ago in Mn T 12 Production Demand 10 Production surplus 13/14 8 Global stocks are likely to decline to only 13% of annual consumption 6 4 2 0 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15F Oc t ober / Sep te m ber 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de 17 OILS & FATS : World Disappearance World demand of oils/fats very strong until 2014 doubling in past 20 years Most of that growth was on account of palm oil Mainly for food, mainly in the developing ctries Big change in 2014/15 : the slowest demand growth in 11 years ! Total Usage and Annual Change (Mn T) 240 225 210 195 180 165 150 135 120 105 90 75 60 45 30 15 0 W orld Disappearance Annual Ch an ge 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 86/87 90/91 94/95 98/99 02/03 06/07 10/11 14/15F 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de 17 OILS & FATS : World Disappearance Total Usage and Annual Change (Mn T) 240 225 210 195 180 165 150 135 120 105 90 75 60 45 30 15 0 W orld Disappe arance Annu al Ch an ge 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 86/87 90/91 94/95 98/99 02/03 06/07 10/11 14/15F In Oct/Dec 2014 world consumption was still relatively high and was up by 2.1 Mn T or 4.2% But the consumption growth is likely to slow to only 1.1 Mn T or 2.4% in Jan/March 2015 and just 1.3% in Apr/Sept Consumption for energy to fall by around 1.5 Mn T in Jan/Sept 2015 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de Dominance of Malaysia & Indonesia in world exports of all oils and fats 17 OILS & FATS: Exports of Major Countries (Mn T) 30 25 Indonesia 20 Both countries also benefit from logistical 15 constraints in many there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at Malaysia other export locations the airport 10 Argentina 5 Canada U.S.A. Ukraine 0 93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 14/15F 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de Stocks/Usage Ratio of Oilseeds and Oils & Fats The graph shows stocks relative to annual consumption for oilseeds and for oils & fats While the global oilseed stocks/usage ration is set to increase further in 2014/15, World Stocks in Percent of Annual Usage (%) 24 22 20 18 16 14 Stocks of oils & fats relative to usage will be declining Meal prices are overvalued, veg oil prices to appreciate 12 17 oils & fats 10 10 oilseeds 8 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015F At the End of the Season 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de Current prospects are that world soybean supplies will remain ample in 2015/16 Soybeans: Wo rld Stocks as o f end-Aug ust (Mn T) 100 80 But weather risks 60 Producers have started to respond. Rape and sunseed output may fall. One major crop failure away from higher prices! 40 20 0 1 99 5 1 99 7 1 99 9 2 00 1 2 00 3 2 00 5 2 00 7 20 09 20 11 20 13 2 01 5 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de Price prospects: 1) With ample supplies (on paper) soybeans have downward potential in the next 1-3 months and also in July/Dec 2015, unless US new-crop prospects deteriorate. 2) Meal prices look even more bearish Soya Oil Share of the Combined Product Value Calculated with prices in N. Europe 50 % 45 40 35 30 3) Oil share to recover further (to 35% or 37 ?) implying that soya oil price should appreciate 25 Ja03Ja04Ja05Ja06 Ja07Ja08Ja09Ja10Ja11Ja12Ja13 Ja14Ja15 Monthly Averages until 12 March 2015 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de Price Prospects - - amidst many uncertainties, my forecast: The global market is in a tug-of-war between bearish demand and bullish supply fundamentals Fluctuating, but downward potential for veg oil prices is limited Veg. oil prices continue to divorce from weak mineral oils. (Mineral oil prices may have reached their low, or close to it). Likely downward pressure in meal to become bullish for oil. We enter the lower summer demand season in N.H. Seed oils will have to finance a larger share of the crush value. Key uncertainties: Weather in Northern Hemisphere in next 2-6 months, farmer selling, logistics, currencies, politics,… 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de Soya oil prices seen recovering relative to soya meal and may rise moderately in April/Sept 2015, despite my expectation of lower prices of soybeans and meal. Palm oil: World production declined in Oct/Febr 2014/15. Stocks currently relatively low, despite poor demand recently. Production now picking up seasonally, primarily from April and May onward. But also world import seen rising in Apr/Sept 15, mainly for food. Prices should thus be supported at sizeable premiums over crude mineral oil prices. 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de One swing factor to watch is the development in China A key swing factor is the magnitude of biodiesel consumption in Indonesia I currently assume that total Indonesian biodiesel production increases to 3.1 Mn T in 2015, of which 2.2 Mn T used domestically and 0.9 Mn T for export But full implementation of B10 would imply domestic use of 3.2 Mn T per annum B15 would even imply a usage of 4.8 Mn T (logistics?) One observer: will be implemented in the Indonesian way 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de Thank You for Your Kind Attention ! there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at airport More detailsthe are given in the Oil World Weekly & Monthly Reports, which are available on the Internet at www.oilworld.de 13 March 2015 Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958 © www.oilworld.de © Copyright 2015 ISTA Mielke GmbH. there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at This information is destined for internal use only. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution ofthe the airport proprietary content without the prior written consent of ISTA Mielke GmbH is strictly prohibited. Any violation of our copyright will be PROSECUTED. The information and analyses given in this service are considered to be reliable. Every care is taken to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the contents. 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