Beef, Veal and Lamb Report
Beef, Veal and Lamb Report Beef, Veal & Lamb - Beef production last week declined 7.1% but was .1% larger than the same holiday shortened week a year ago. Could the year over year gain in output be a sign of what's to come? The USDA is forecasting beef production this summer to be 1.4% above 2014. Thus, the upside price risk in many of the beef markets may only be modest from here. As a matter of fact, beef prices have generally softened as of late despite last week's holiday shortened output. Total beef shipments fell to a five week low. There may be more downside to the beef markets in the near term. The USDA choice boxed beef cutout has moved lower during the next two weeks in five of the last six years. Price USDA, FOB per pound. Description Live Cattle (Steer) Feeder Cattle Index (CME) Ground Beef 81/19 Ground Chuck 109 Export Rib (ch) 109 Export Rib (pr) 112a Ribeye (ch) 112a Ribeye (pr) 114a Chuck , Shlder Cld(ch) 116 Chuck (sel) 116b Chuck Tender (ch) 116 Chuck (ch) 120 Brisket (ch) 120a Brisket (ch) 121c Outside Skirt (ch/sel) 121d Inside Skirt (ch/sel) 121e Cap & Wedge 167a Knckle, Trimmed (ch) 168 Inside Round (ch) 169 Top Round (ch) 171b Outside Round (ch) 174 Short Loin (ch 0x1) 174 Short Loin (pr 2x3) 180 1x1 Strip (ch) 180 1x1 Strip (pr) 180 0x1 Strip (ch) 184 Top Butt, boneless (ch) 184 Top Butt, boneless (pr) 185a Sirloin Flap (ch) 185c Loin, Tri-Tip (ch) 189a Tender (sel, 5 lb & up) 189a Tender (ch, 5 lb &up) 189a Tender (pr, heavy) 193 Flank Steak (ch) 50% Trimmings 65% Trimmings 75% Trimmings 85% Trimmings 90% Trimmings 90% Imported Beef (frz) 95% Imported Beef (frz) Veal Rack (Hotel 7 rib) Veal Top Round (cap off) Market Trend Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Steady Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Steady Steady Supplies Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Price vs. Last Year Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Lower Higher Lower Higher Higher Higher Higher Lower Lower Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Lower Higher Lower Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Lower Lower Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Market Report provided by American Restaurant Association- www.AmericanRestaurantAssociation.com- 941-379--2228 Grains The EPA finally set their ethanol and biodiesel mandates for 2014 and 2015 last week due to a court order. In a nutshell, corn directed towards ethanol is not expected to greatly expand while soybean oil use into biodiesel could grow modestly. The downside price risk in soybean oil from here is likely only modest. Prices USDA, FOB Description Soybeans, bushel Crude Soybean Oil, lb Soybean Meal, ton Corn, bushel Crude Corn Oil, lb High Fructose Corn Syrup Distillers Grain, Dry Crude Palm Oil, lb BMD HRW Wheat, bushel DNS Wheat 14%, bushel Durum Wheat, bushel Pinto Beans, lb Black Beans, lb Rice, Long Grain, lb Market Trend Increasing Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Steady Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Steady Decreasing Steady Steady Steady Supplies Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Price vs. Last Year Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Higher Lower Lower Lower Market Report provided by American Restaurant Association- www.AmericanRestaurantAssociation.com- 941-379-2228 Dairy The cheese markets have firmed during the last week as milk production begins to seasonally decline. History suggests modest cheese markets increases could be forthcoming as the five year average move for the CME cheese block market during June is higher by 3%. However, the premium in class III milk prices compared to class IV should continue to encourage cheese output which may limit the upside in the cheese markets this summer. Butter prices have firmed as well. Butter production is expected to continue to track below 2014 levels which could underpin prices. Prices per pound, except Class I Cream (hundred weight), from USDA. . Description Cheese Barrels (CME) Cheese Blocks (CME) American Cheese Cheddar Cheese (40 lb) Mozzarella Cheese Provolone Cheese Parmesan Cheese Butter (CME) Nonfat Dry Milk Whey, Dry Class 1 Base Class II Cream, heavy Class III Milk (CME) Class IV Milk (CME) Market Trend Increasing Increasing Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Increasing Decreasing Increasing Steady Steady Increasing Increasing Supplies Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Price vs. Last Year Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Market Report provided by American Restaurant Association- www.AmericanRestaurantAssociation.com- 941-379-2228 Pork Pork output last week declined 13.4% due to the holiday but was 5% larger than the same week last year. Hog supplies are generally ample which should continue to fuel strong year over year gains in pork production. The USDA is forecasting third quarter pork output to be 8.9% more than the previous year. Thus, any seasonal appreciation in the pork markets this summer is likely to be tempered. That being said, the USDA is pointing toward a tighter supply situation for pork in 2016. Prices USDA, FOB per pound. Description Live Hogs Sow Belly (bacon) Sparerib(4.25 lb & down) Ham (20-23 lb) Ham (23-27 lb) Loin (bone in) Babyback Rib (1.75 lb & up) Tenderloin (1.25 lb) Boston Butt, untrmd (4-8 lb) Picnic, untrmd SS Picnic, smoker trm box 42% Trimmings 72% Trimmings Market Trend Increasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Supplies Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Price vs. Last Year Lower Lower Lower Higher Lower Lower Lower Higher Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Market Report provided by American Restaurant Association- www.AmericanRestaurantAssociation.com- 941-379-2228 Poultry Chicken output for the week ending May 23rd rose 4.3% and was 8.9% more than the same week a year ago. The broiler hatchery flock is expanding which is encouraging strong year over year gains in chicken production and is likely to persist. The USDA is forecasting summer chicken output to be 4.2% larger than 2014. The chicken breast markets may continue to weaken in the near term. Avian flu continues to impact table egg laying hens with estimates of 11% of the entire flock now depopulated. Egg prices continue soar and buyers are struggling to source supply. The egg markets could be especially volatile during the next several months. Prices USDA, FOB per pound except when noted. Description Whole Birds (2.5-3 GA) Wings (whole) Wings (jumbo cut) Wing Index (ARA) Breast, Bone In Breast, Boneless Skinless Breast Boneless Index (ARA) Tenderloin (random) Tenderloin (sized) Legs (whole) Leg Quarters Leg Quarter Index (ARA) Thighs, Bone In Thighs, Boneless Market Trend Steady Decreasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing Steady Steady Increasing Steady Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Supplies Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Price vs. Last Year Higher Higher Higher Higher Same Lower Lower Higher Higher Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Description Whole Turkey (8-16 lb) Turkey Breast, Bnls/Sknls Market Trend Increasing Increasing Supplies Good Good Price vs. Last Year Higher Higher Supplies Good Good Good Good Good Price vs. Last Year Higher Higher Higher Higher Higher Eggs Description Large Eggs (dozen) Medium Eggs (dozen) Liquid Whole Eggs Liquid Egg Whites Liquid Egg Yolks Market Trend Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Market Report provided by American Restaurant Association- www.AmericanRestaurantAssociation.com- 941-379-2228 Seafood Both the Newfoundland and St. Lawrence snow crab fishing seasons are progressing with 46% and 20% of the quotas landed as of Sunday. The smaller quotas for Canadian snow crab landings this year, however, are expected to shorten the available snow crab supply. The downside price risk in the snow crab leg markets may only be nominal. Prices for fresh product, unless noted, per pound from Fisheries Market News Description Shrimp (16/20 frz) Shrimp (61/70 frz) Shrimp Tiger (26/30 frz) Snow Crab Legs (5-8 oz frz) Snow Crab Legs (8oz & up frz) Cod Tails (3-7 oz frz) Cod Loins (3-12 oz frz) Salmon Portions (4-8 oz frz) Pollock Alaska, Deep Skin Market Trend Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Steady Supplies Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Price vs. Last Year Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Higher Lower Higher Market Report provided by American Restaurant Association- www.AmericanRestaurantAssociation.com- 941-379-2228 Paper and Plastic Product Report Description Market Trend Supplies Price vs. Last Year Steady Steady Good Good Lower Higher Increasing Decreasing Steady Good Good Good Lower Lower Lower Wood Pulp (paper) NBSK- Paper napkin 42 lb. Linerboard-corrugated box Plastic Resins (plastic, foam) PS-CHH-utensils, cups, to-go cont. PP-HIGP-heavy grade utensils PE-LLD-can liners, film, bags Retail Price Change from Prior Month Description Beef and Veal Dairy Pork Chicken Fresh Fish and Seafood Fresh Fruits and Vegetables Apr-15 Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Decreasing Increasing Mar-15 Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing Feb-15 Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Various Markets The California tomato for processing season will get underway early next month with a record harvest anticipated despite the drought there. Still, raw product costs for canners are expected to remain historically expensive which should underpin the canned tomato markets. Price bases noted below. Description Whole Peeled, Stand (6/10) Tomato Paste-Industrial (lb) Coffee lb ICE Sugar lb ICE Cocoa mt ICE Orange Juice lb ICE Honey (clover) lb Market Trend Steady Steady Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Steady Supplies Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Price vs. Last Year Higher Higher Lower Lower Higher Lower Higher Market Report provided by American Restaurant Association- www.AmericanRestaurantAssociation.com- 941-379-2228 Produce The lettuce markets continue to trade at relatively inflated levels as supplies remain short of demand. Typically the lettuce markets drift lower in the coming weeks. The five year average price move for iceberg lettuce during June is a decline of 18%. However, adverse weather could limit any pending lettuce price depreciation. Conversely, tomato supplies remain relatively ample with the markets generally trading below year ago levels. Still, the downside price risk in the tomato markets from here is likely only modest. The potato markets could remain firm into August. Price bases noted below Description Limes (150 ct) Lemons (95 ct) Lemons (200 ct) Honeydew (6 ct) Cantaloupe (15 ct) Blueberries (12 ct) Strawberries (12 pnt) Avocados (Hass 48 ct) Bananas (40 lb) Term Pineapple (7 ct) Term Idaho Potato (60 ct 50 lb) Idaho Potato (70 ct 50 lb) Idaho Potato (70 ct ) Term Idaho Potato (90 ct 50 lb) Idaho Potato #2 (6 oz 100 lb) Processing Potato (cwt) Yellow Onions (50 lb) Yellow Onions (50 lb) Term Red Onions (25 lb) Term White Onions (50 lb) Term Tomatoes (lg case) Tomatoes (5x6 lb) Term Tomatoes (4x5 vine ripe) Roma Tomatoes (lg case) Roma Tomatoes (xlg case) Green Peppers (lg case) Red Peppers (lg 15 lb case) Iceberg Lettuce (24 ct) Iceberg Lettuce (24 ct) Term Leaf Lettuce (24 ct) Romaine Lettuce (24 ct) Mesculin Mix (3 lb) Term Broccoli (14 ct) Squash (1/2 bushel) Zucchini (1/2 bushel) Green Beans (bushel) Spinach (flat 24) Mushrooms (10 lb lg) Term Cucumbers (bushel) Pickels (200-300 ct) Term Asparagus (sm) Frieght (truck CA-Cty Av) Market Trend Decreasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Steady Decreasing Decreasing Steady Steady Decreasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Steady Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Decreasing Increasing Steady Supplies Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Price vs. Last Year Lower Higher Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Same Lower Higher Lower Lower Lower Lower Lower Higher Higher Higher Higher Lower Lower Lower Lower Higher Lower Higher Lower Lower Higher Higher Lower Higher Lower Lower Higher Lower Higher Lower Lower Higher Lower Market Report provided by American Restaurant Association- www.AmericanRestaurantAssociation.com- 941-379-2228 Market Report provided by American Restaurant Association- www.AmericanRestaurantAssociation.com- 941-379-2228
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