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Reason, Logic, and the Idols of Thought
Philosophy 8
Spring 2015
Instructor
Jonathan Ellis
108 Cowell Annex
[The Annex is in Cowell College but is not the building
called "Cowell"; it's just below Page Smith Library.]
Office Hours: Thursdays 2:15-3:45, & by appointment
Email: [email protected]
Course Description
This course is about thinking and reasoning, about how human beings form judgments and make
decisions, and what each of us can learn from philosophy and cognitive science about how to
reason more critically and effectively.
The breadth and depth of the mistakes human beings make in reasoning about the world are
sobering. We give more weight to what is salient than what is not (availability bias) and give
unjustifiably more credence to what confirms our hypothesis than what disconfirms it
(confirmation bias). We commit fallacies of probability and fallacies of logic. We beg the
question, reason circularly, and construct false dichotomies. We confuse necessary conditions
with sufficient conditions and are gravely uncritical in assessing numbers spun in the media.
We conflate and confabulate, and engage in self-sealing reasoning. And we are easily duped
by rhetorical tricks and maneuvers. Perhaps worst of all, even when we are certain that we
are reasoning logically, we are often unwittingly reasoning with our emotions or underlying
motivations (e.g., cognitive dissonance). At the mercy of what Francis Bacon called “the
idols” of our thought, these distorted ways of reasoning affect all facets of our lives—the
theoretical and the practical, our decisions, our politics, our philosophies.
The goals of this course are:
• for students to be able to employ many of the most relevant concepts concerning
social, inductive, probabilistic, and statistical reasoning
• for students to practice distilling and critically assessing the barrage of reasons and
rhetoric they encounter every day—on campus, in the media, online, etc.
• for students to subject their own thinking and processes of belief formation
to more rigorous standards. Course Requirements
The requirements for the course are:
Percent of Semester Grade:
Assignments
Quiz
Midterm
Project
Final Exam
Section Participation
Fri, April 17
Mon, May 11
Fri, May 29
Wed, June 10 (12-3pm)
30%
5%
15%
20%
25%
5%
Texts
1. Books
Available for purchase at The Literary Guillotine, 204 Locust St., one and a half blocks
west of Pacific Ave. in Downtown Santa Cruz. (Tel.#: 457-1195)
Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman
Mistakes Were Made (but not by me), Carol Tavris & Elliot Aronson
Why We Argue (and How We Should), Scott Aikin & Robert Talisse
2. Selected readings posted on eCommons (under Resources)
“Rules for Calculating Probabilities,” F.C. Swoyer
“The Well-Chosen Average,” D. Huff
“When Numbers Mislead,” S. Coontz
Innumeracy (excerpts), J.A. Paulos
“Chutes and Ladders and Serum Hemoglobin Levels,” A. Vickers
“Deviations: The Normal, the Paranormal, and Edgar Cayce,” M. Shermer
“Summary of a Study on Confirmation Bias,” J. Ellis
“Testimonials and Case Study Evidence” (excerpt), K. Stanovich
“Correlation and Causation” (excerpt), K. Stanovich
“Getting Things under Control” (excerpt), K. Stanovich
“Samples and Correlations” (excerpt), F.C. Swoyer
“The Barnum Effect,” D. Levy
“The Two Concepts of Probability” (excerpt), M.G. Blumer
“Beyond Replication: Misleading Reports of a Provocative Experiment,” J. Ellis
“OJ Simpson, Sally Clark, George and Me,” A. Vickers
“The Probability of a Dry Toothbrush,” A. Vickers
“Michael Jordan Won't Accept the Null Hypothesis,” A. Vickers
The Happiness Hypothesis (excerpt), J. Haidt
2 Supplementary Reading (optional)
Students looking for further reading on probability and statistics might start with the
following:
An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic, Ian Hacking
Innumeracy, John Allen Paulos
Statistics in Plain English, 3rd ed., Timothy Urdan
General Education Course
This course satisfies the Statistical Reasoning requirement. It also satisfies the Q requirement
from the older set of GE requirements.
Two Tracks
The course consists of two tracks that run concurrently throughout the quarter. The first
concerns probability and statistics, and the decisions and judgments made on their bases.
The second concerns (i) logic and rhetoric, and (ii) human cognition, as illuminated by
recent work in the cognitive sciences. In a typical lecture period, half the class will focus
on one track, the other half on the other.
The course is structured in this way for two reasons: 1) some of the topics in each track
require sustained reflection over the course of a term; and 2) thinking about topics in one
track in light of those in the other will often generate deeper understanding.
Discussion Sections
Students are required to attend lectures and a weekly discussion section to which you will be
assigned. You are strongly encouraged to participate actively in these sections. Students who
miss three discussion sections (without prior permission) will fail the course.
Assignments
In all but four weeks, there is a weekly assignment. Each of these six assignments is worth 5%
of your total grade.
The assignments typically have more than one component. Some of the components are due
in hard copy, others by way of eCommons.
Components of assignments that are due in hard copy will be due at the beginning of class at
2:00pm sharp. We will be very serious about this 2:00pm deadline as we do not want students
walking into lecture late in order to turn in assignments. Assignments will not be accepted
after 2:00pm. If you anticipate having difficulty making it to class by 2:00pm (on account of
another class across campus, for instance), you must contact your TA about this at least 24
hours in advance, and we will assess the situation.
3 Components of assignments due via eCommons will typically be due by 1:00pm.
Some of the assignments will involve students engaging with other students' work from
previous assignments. If ever you are uncomfortable with an assignment of yours being read
by other students, please contact Professor Ellis or your TA, and we will work something out.
eCommons
We will be using eCommons in this course. If you run into technical difficulty using
eCommons, you can contact the ITS Help Desk:
Online: http://itrequest.ucsc.edu/ Phone: (831) 459-HELP
Email: [email protected]
In-Person: Kerr Hall Rm. 54 - M-F 8am to 5pm
Also, ITS recommends using the latest version of Firefox or Internet Explorer to access
eCommons. Safari and Google Chrome are not recommended. Firefox Javascript addons can conflict with eCommons and may need to be disabled.
Other Course Policies and Suggestions
1. A passing grade on the final exam is necessary for a passing grade in the course.
2. My regular office hours are Thursdays, 2:15-3:45pm. Please drop by to continue class
discussion or to discuss other matters. If you have another class or other obligations during
my office hours, talk to me after class or send me an email ([email protected]), and we can
schedule another time to meet.
3. All questions about assignments, grades, eCommons, etc. should be directed first to your
TA. The teaching assistants for the course are, by section:
Mon 5:00pm (Crown 203)
Mon 6:30pm (Crown 203)
Tues 8:30am (Merrill 003)
Barrett Anderson ([email protected])
Barrett Anderson
Barrett Anderson
Wed 8:00am (Merrill 003)
Wed 9:30am (Merrill 003)
Wed 11:00am (Merrill 003)
Kyle Robertson ([email protected])
Kyle Robertson
Kyle Robertson
Wed 5:30pm (Cowell 216)
Wed 7:00pm (Cowell 216)
Thurs 8:30am (Cowell 216)
Peter Towbin ([email protected])
Peter Towbin
Peter Towbin
Fri 8:00am (Cowell 216)
Fri 9:30am (Cowell 216)
Fri 11:00am (Cowell 216)
James Gray ([email protected])
James Gray
James Gray
4 4. If you qualify for classroom accommodations because of a disability, please get an
Accommodation Authorization from the Disability Resource Center (DRC) and submit it to
me in person outside of class (e.g., office hours) within the first two weeks of the quarter.
Please also notify your TA. Contact DRC at 459-2089 (voice), 459-4806 (TTY), or
http://drc.ucsc.edu/ for more information on the requirements and/or process.
5. You are responsible for being familiar with UCSC’s policies on plagiarism and proper
sourcing. Plagiarism is a grave offense, which we take very seriously.
Resources on academic integrity can be found here:
http://www.ue.ucsc.edu/academic_integrity
http://www.ue.ucsc.edu/ai_resources
http://deanofstudents.ucsc.edu/student-conduct/student-handbook.html
COURSE CALENDAR
WEEK 1
Mon, March 30
Introduction to Course
Wed, April 1
Reading:
Mistakes Were Made, Introduction and ch. 1
Fri, April 3
Reading:
Why We Argue, ch. 1 (Introduction is optional)
"Rules for Calculating Probabilities" (F.C. Swoyer), pgs. 229-234
WEEK 2
Mon, April 6
Assignment #1 due
Reading:
Why We Argue, ch. 2
Thinking, Fast & Slow, Introduction & ch. 1
“Rules for Calculating Probabilities" (F.C. Swoyer), pgs. 234-240
Wed, April 8
Reading:
Thinking, Fast and Slow, chs. 2-3
“Rules for Calculating Probabilities,” pgs. 240-248
5 Fri, April 10
Reading:
Re-read “Rules for Calculating Probabilities,”pgs. 240-248
WEEK 3
Mon, April 13
Assignment #2 due
Reading:
Why We Argue, ch. 3
"The Well-Chosen Average" (D. Huff)
“When Numbers Mislead” (S. Coontz)
Wed, April 15
Reading:
Thinking, Fast and Slow, chs. 4 & 5
Fri, April 17
Quiz at beginning of class
Reading:
Thinking, Fast and Slow, chs. 7 & 9 (chs 6 & 8 optional)
WEEK 4
Mon, April 20
Assignment #3 due
Reading:
Why We Argue, ch. 4
Wed, April 22
Reading:
Thinking, Fast and Slow, ch. 10
Innumeracy (J.A. Paulos), excerpt #1
6 Fri, April 24
Reading:
Innumeracy (J.A. Paulos), excerpt #2: pgs. 34-39
"Chutes and Ladders and Serum Hemoglobin Levels" (A. Vickers)
WEEK 5
Mon, April 27
Assignment # 4 due
Reading:
Why We Argue, ch. 5
“Deviations: The Normal, the Paranormal, and Edgar Cayce” (M. Shermer)
Wed, April 29
Reading:
Mistakes Were Made, chs. 2&3
“Summary of Confirmation Bias Study” (J. Ellis)
Fri, May 1
Reading:
"Testimonials and Case Study Evidence" (K. Stanovich, excerpt)
"Correlation and Causation" (K. Stanovich, excerpt)
Thinking, Fast and Slow, chs. 11-13
WEEK 6
Mon, May 4
Assignment #5 due
Reading:
"Getting Things under Control" (K. Stanovich, excerpt)
"Samples and Correlations," (F.C. Swoyer)
"The Barnum Effect" (D. Levy)
"The Two Concepts of Probability" (M.G. Blumer, excerpt)
Wed, May 6
Reading:
Why We Argue, ch. 6
"Beyond Replication: Misleading Reports of a Provocative Experiment" (J. Ellis)
7 Fri, May 8
Review for Exam
No new reading.
WEEK 7
Mon, May 11 Mid-Term Exam
Wed, May 13
Reading:
Why We Argue, ch. 7
Mistakes Were Made, ch. 4
Fri, May 15
Reading:
Thinking, Fast and Slow, chs. 14-15
Innumeracy (J.A. Paulos), excerpt #3
"OJ Simpson, Sally Clark, George and Me" (A. Vickers)
WEEK 8
Mon, May 18
Assignment #6 due
Reading:
Why We Argue, ch. 8
"The Probability of a Dry Toothbrush" (A. Vickers)
"Michael Jordan Won't Accept the Null Hypothesis" (A. Vickers)
Wed, May 20
Reading:
Thinking, Fast and Slow, chs. 17, 18, & 34 (yes, 34)
Fri, May 22
Reading:
Thinking, Fast and Slow, chs. 19&20
8 WEEK 9
Mon, May 25
MEMORIAL DAY, no class
Wed, May 27
Reading:
Why We Argue, ch. 9
Thinking, Fast and Slow, chs. 25&26
Fri, May 29
Projects Due
Reading:
Thinking, Fast and Slow, ch. 31
WEEK 10
Mon, June 1
Reading:
Thinking, Fast and Slow, ch. 32
Mistakes Were Made, chs. 6 & 8 (chs. 5&7 optional)
Wed, June 3
Reading:
Why We Argue, Conclusion
The Happiness Hypothesis, J. Haidt (excerpt)
Fri, June 5
Last Class
No new reading.
Wed, June 10, 12:00-3:00pm
Final Exam
9 Due Dates by Week
Week 1:
No assignment
Week 2:
Assignment 1 due Monday
Week 3:
Assignment 2 due Monday
Quiz Friday
Week 4:
Assignment 3 due Monday
Week 5:
Assignment 4 due Monday
Week 6:
Assignment 5 due Monday
Week 7:
Mid-term Exam Monday
No assignment due this week
Week 8:
Assignment 6 due Monday
Week 9:
Projects due Friday
No other assignment due this week
Week 10:
No assignment
Finals Week: Final Exam
Wednesday, June 10
12:00pm - 3:00pm
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