H2
Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways (STEPS)
Strategies for Transitioning to Low-carbon Freight
Vehicles
NCST/STEPS Webinar
30 April 2015
Lew Fulton
STEPS Director
www.steps.ucdavis.edu
New STEPS/NCST report due out May 2015
2
STEPS is the leading global forum of low-carbon
transportation stakeholders
STEPS: Generate visions of fuel and vehicle futures grounded in technical
and economic realities, a strong knowledge base for companies making
long-term technology investments, and sophisticated analyses of future
policies.
• The leading experts on modeling and analysis of alternative fuel transitions
• Preparing scientific analysis and convening policy and business decision makers
• Training next generation leaders in transportation and energy
1998----------------------------------------------------------------------------2014-------------------2018
Fuel Cell
Vehicle
Modeling
Program
1998-2002
FCV
Technology
Hydrogen
Pathways
2003-2006
FCVs & H2
Fuel Pathway
STEPS
2007-2010
NextSTEPS
2011-2014
Fuel/Vehicle
Pathway
Analyses &
Comparisons
Scenarios &
Transition
Strategies
STEPS3
2015-2018
Critical
Transition
Dynamics
3
STEPS program issues white papers that answer critical questions on low
carbon, alt. fuel transitions: How will/won’t these transitions unfold?
White Paper
Draft Release
Public Release
Leaders
Biofuels
April
May
Lew Fulton, Nathan Parker, Steve
Kaffka, Geoff Morrison
Electric Vehicles
May
June
Tom Turrentine, Ken Kurani
Hydrogen
June
August
January
February
Amy Jaffe, Rosa Dominguez
April 2015
May 2015
Lew Fulton
Integrative Scenarios for
Low C Sustainable
Futures
2015
2015
Joan Ogden, Lew Fulton, Sonia
Yeh, Chris Yang
CCS
2015
2015
Joan Ogden, Nils Johnson, Nathan
Parker
Natural Gas
Low-carbon Freight
Joan Ogden, Chris Yang, Mike
Nicholas, Lew Fulton
4
Scope of talk:
• Truck characteristics, technology options,
GHG reduction potential, costs
• Comparison across fuels, present and
future
• 80-in-50 GHG scenarios for the US and
California
• Policy implications
5
Research Team/Acknowledgments
• Lew Fulton
• Marshall Miller
• Many data inputs provided by Andrew
Burke, Lin Zhu, Hengbeng Zhao
• TOP-HDV Model originally built by Ben
Sharpe, who provided help in updating
his model for the current study
6
EIA AEO 2015: truck energy use rising
7
Intent and Focus of Study
• Accept goal of 80% reductions in GHGs by 2050 in US and CA,
apply goal to trucking sector
• Focus on advanced vehicles (driveline efficiency gains), new
propulsion technologies (e.g. fuel cells) and very-low GHG
fuels
• Outside scope of study
– Programs/policies to reduce VMT
– Intelligent Transportation Systems (e.g. automation, traffic
management), ICT for logistics
• Biofuels
– Included biodiesel and renewable diesel
– Did not include RNG (currently studying potential), though
recognize it’s potential importance
8
Punchlines first – what it could look like to achieve an 80%
reduction in GHG in trucking...
•
US biofuels use in Mixed case would be about a doubling of todays levels for all
purposes and must provide at least 80% reductions in GHG compared to base fuel
•
Hydrogen use in the ZEV case would be about twice U.S. production for all
purposes and must be deeply decarbonized, e.g. from “waste” wind/solar power
US (right axis)
California (left axis)
60
4.5
50
4.0
3.5
40
3.0
30
2.5
2.0
20
1.5
BIL GALLONS DIESEL EQUIV
BILL GALLONS DIESEL EQUIV
5.0
Hydrogen
Electricity
Natural gas
Biofuels
Diesel fuel
1.0
10
0.5
0
0.0
2010
2050
High ZEV
2050
Mixed
2010
2050
High ZEV
2050
Mixed
9
Trucking sector includes many different truck types…
Truck Type
Description or
example
Long haul
Class 8 long distance
travel
Very high
~100,000
Medium
Short haul
Class 7,8 regional
travel
High
~50,000
Low
Heavy-duty
vocational
Refuse truck
Medium
20,000 – 30,000
Medium
Medium-duty
vocational
Trash compactors,
bucket trucks
Medium
20,000 – 30,000
Medium
Medium-duty urban
Delivery trucks (UPS,
FedEx)
Medium
20,000 – 30,000
High
Buses
Transit buses,
shuttles, coaches
Medium
~30,000
Medium
Medium
20,000 – 30,000
Very high
Heavy-duty vans and Class 2B and 3, >
pickup trucks
8,500 lbs. GVWR
Average
Mileage/year
Relative fleet size
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…and technologies/fuels
Vehicle
Technology
Commercial status
Efficiency, Range, and
Vehicle Cost
Barriers/issues
Conventional
diesel/gasoline
Presently dominate all truck (baseline technology)
types
Relatively heavy emitters
of GHGs
Hybrid, plug-in
hybrid
Commercial in heavy-duty
pickups and buses.
Expected to play a
significant role in all types
Reduce GHGs but
reductions are modest
compared to fuel cell and
electric
LNG/CNG
Commercial in almost all
types. Significant market in
buses, MD urban.
Fuel cell
Battery electric
Increase in efficiency
Increased range
Increased cost
Similar or slight decrease
in efficiency
Likely decrease in range
Near-term Increase in
cost
Extensively tested in buses Large increase in
and cars. Timeline for
efficiency
commercialization in other Decreased range
vehicle types could be 10-20 Increase in cost
years
Near commercial in some
Large increase in
applications, mainly
efficiency
medium duty urban
Significant decrease in
range
Increase in cost
At best, modest
reductions in GHGs except
with RNG. Infrastructure
not fully mature.
Hydrogen infrastructure
lacking. Fuel cells will
likely have a shorter life
than diesel engines for the
foreseeable future.
Range of vehicle is short.
Vehicles with significant
annual mileage may not
be able to adopt. Battery
life may not last expected
truck life. .
11
Trucks vary by efficiency and range…
New long-haul Heavy Duty trucks as an example
Diesel
MPG (diesel equiv)
Gal/100 miles
(own fuel units)
Approximate fuel
storage
requirement
(volumetric gals
for 500 mile range)
Hybrid Diesel
Diesel
Max
Tech
LNG
Fuel cell / LH2
2014
2014
2030
2030
2014
2030
2014
2030
6.5
6.9
9.3
11.2
6.5
9.3
10.9
13.3
15.3
14.5
10.7
8.9
15.3
10.7
9.2
7.5
77
73
54
45
140
100
300
225
Sources: Burke and Zhu (2014), Zhou et al (2013), Calheat (2013)
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How we estimated life-cycle costs
• We made estimates of vehicle/fuel costs only for long and short
haul heavy-duty trucks
• Estimates for 2014 and (roughly) 2030
• Assumed cost reductions as a function of R&D, scale, learning –
thus our 2030 cost numbers reflect these, if they don’t happen
costs would be higher
• Even near term costs assume high volume production for new
technologies and fuels
• Costs are amortized over 15 years (with 15 years of fuel use) – this
could occur over multiple owners
• Societal discount rate 4% used
• We have only made point estimates but acknowledge a high degree
of uncertainty/variability
13
Long-haul truck lifecycle costs: near term and long term
Using a societal cost approach, fuel costs dominate
14
Short-haul HDT lifecycle costs
Electrics possible but battery costs will be key
15
Fuel requirements and assumptions
•
By 2030, much lower GHG feedstock production/fuel supply pathways
must be well on their way to replacing current higher GHG pathways,
with >80% reductions per unit of fuel by 2050
•
California has a significantly cleaner grid than the US average, so has a
“head start” for both electricity and hydrogen decarbonization
2014
Hydrogen
100% from natural
gas reforming
Electricity
Average grid mix
Biofuel
Mostly soy-based
biodiesel
2030
50% from NG, 50%
from electrolysis
from grid electricity
Average grid mix,
significantly
decarbonized
Renewable diesel,
50% from cellulosic
pathways
2050
100% from very low
carbon electricity
Grid must be almost
completely
decarbonized
100% very low GHG
renewable diesel
16
CO2 emissions over HDT vehicle life
Differences across technologies, fuels, duty cycles, years
17
CO2 costs applied over HDT vehicle life
Shown with a $50/ton carbon value – not a game changer
18
Truck scenarios using TOP-HDV
• Scenarios – fleet stock, VMT by truck type through 2050. Modify sales of
new technologies and fuels year by year to reach goals.
• Two paths – ZEVs (FCs and BEVs) and biofuels/ZEV mix
• Benefits/issues
– ZEVs
• Significantly reduces both greenhouse gases and criteria pollutants
(critical in CA)
• Vehicles initially expensive; for FCEVs no hydrogen infrastructure
• Requires electricity or hydrogen produced renewably (wind, solar)
– Biofuels/ZEV mix
• Does not require new vehicle (fuel is drop-in ready)
• Not clear how much low carbon biofuels are available (also more
difficult to estimate actual carbon emissions)
19
80-in-50 ZEV Scenario
Massive changes between 2030 and 2050
20
Comparison of ZEV and Mixed paths
(HD Trucks for CA shown here)
ZEV scenario: FCEVs must dominate the market by 2035
Mixed Scenario: Lower ZEVs but advanced biofuels w/80% GHG reduction must
reach very high blend share by 2050
21
ZEV scenario sales must ramp up very quickly after 2025…
22
Punchlines revisited – what it could look like to achieve an
80% reduction in GHG in trucking...
•
Maximum vehicle efficiency improvement is a critical underpinning for
fuel substitution, cuts fuel demand even in the face of rising truck travel
•
Hydrogen, electricity and biofuels must themselves be deeply
decarbonized by 2050
California (left axis)
US (right axis)
60
4.5
50
4.0
3.5
40
3.0
2.5
30
2.0
20
1.5
BIL GALLONS DIESEL EQUIV
BILL GALLONS DIESEL EQUIV
5.0
Hydrogen
Electricity
Natural gas
Biofuels
Diesel fuel
1.0
10
0.5
0.0
0
2010
2050
High ZEV
2050
Mixed
2010
2050
High ZEV
2050
Mixed
23
Truck policy and research implications
• National and CA efficiency/GHG standards will hopefully help offset truck
travel growth to keep CO2 stable
• It would take major, rapid shifts in propulsion systems and fuels to hit an
80-in-50 target
• Do we need ZEV mandates for trucks? Fiscal measures a possible
alternative
• More research:
– Truck buyer decisions and response to fiscal decisions – vehicle choice
modelling for trucks?
– “Robustness” analysis on both costs and GHG intensities is needed
– For CA, regional disaggregation would be useful – which trucks are
operating where? Bring in values of NOx/PM
– UC Davis spatial model of trucks in CA is in development
– Role of VMT reduction and efficiency via ICT, logistics, modal shift, etc.
24
Backup Slides
25
Truck technology costs are critical
And future cost reductions are uncertain
Purchase costs for long haul trucks, thousand US dollars
Diesel
Hybrid
Natural
Gas
(LNG/CNG
Biofuels
Fuel Cell
Electricity
)
2014 2030 2014 2030 2014 2030 2014 2030 2014 2030 2014 2030
160
160
185
177
224/ 187/
183 183
160
160
255
216
NA
NA
Short 145
Haul
145
170
162
209/ 172/
168 168
145
145
240
201
466
309
Long
Haul
Sources: primarily Burke and Zhu (2014), Zhou et al (2013); and
analysis undertaken for this paper
26
We built up costs using component analysis
Diesel
2,014
2,030
Base truck ("glider") cost
Long Haul
145,000
Short Haul
130,000
Component costs
Fuel storage
1,000
Engine
9,000
Battery
Fuel cell
Motor
Accessories
Total component costs 10,000
Component cost markup
15,000
(1.5x technology costs)
Total Purchase Cost
Long Haul
160,000
Short haul
145,000
LNG
2,014
2,030
Hybrid
2,014
2,030
Fuel Cell
2,014
2,030
BEV
2,014
2,030
145,000
130,000
1,000
9,000
32,684
20,000
18,158
10,000
1,000
9,000
7,500
10,000
15,000
52,684
79,025
28,158
42,236
7,000
2,000
26,500
39,750
160,000
145,000
224,025
209,025
187,236
172,236
184,750
169,750
1,000
9,000
3,750
23,331
11,666
200,000
100,000
26,250
24,000
16,450
19,200
24,000
19,200
5,600
2,000
21,350
32,025
73,581
110,372
47,316
70,973
224,000
336,000
119,200
178,800
177,025
162,025
255,372
240,372
215,973
200,973
466,000
308,800
Sources: primarily Burke and Zhu (2014), Zhou et al (2013); and
analysis undertaken for this paper
27
With some heroic assumptions…
Cost per kW or kWh
2014
2030 Units
20
10 $/kWh
75
47 $/kW
Fuel Cell
Characteristics
35 kg
1167 kWh
350 kW
BEV
400 kWh
500
250 $/kWh
15 kWh
500
250 $/kWh
9
5 $/kWh
Hybrid
LNG
150 gallons
3632 kWh
28
Fuel cost assumptions are important
Fuel
Fuel cost per
dge, circa 2014
$3.45
$2.75
Projected
cost, 2030
$3.73
$3.21
Biodiesel (2014)
Renewable
diesel (2030)
$5.26
$3.87
Liquid Hydrogen
(LH2) from
natural gas
LH2 from
electrolysis
$5.92
$4.39
$11.08
$6.97
Electricity
$3.82
$4.07
Diesel
Liquid natural
gas (LNG)
Source/comments
AEO 2014
Based on UCD NG model estimates.
Infrastructure must be built out and has
high near-term capital cost;
NREL, 2013; near term oil-seed FAME
biodiesel; long term drop-in fuel from
cellulosic feedstorck with advanced
process such as Fisher-Tropsch or
upgraded pyrolysis oil
LH2 derived from natural gas reforming,
followed by liquefaction;
Electrolysis: near term from electricity
mix, long term with 50% renewables or
waste hydrogen, followed by
liquefaction
EIA average U.S. retail price
29
What will it take to cut CO2 80% by 2050 for trucks?
Baseline long haul: Hybrids and NG
30
Scenarios across all truck types
Baseline: steady growth to 2050, hybrids and NG
31
Scenarios across all truck types
Baseline GHG emissions decline slowly over time
32
Scenarios across all truck types
80-in-50 GHG emissions decline rapidly over time
33