GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES, VOL. 18, GB1022, doi:10.1029/2003GB002119, 2004 Fast labile carbon turnover obscures sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration from soil to temperature: A model analysis Lianhong Gu, Wilfred M. Post, and Anthony W. King Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA Received 3 July 2003; revised 22 November 2003; accepted 15 December 2003; published 5 February 2004. [1] Labile carbon, although often a small fraction of soil organic carbon (SOC), significantly affects heterotrophic respiration at short timescales because of its rapid decomposition. However, in the current literature, most soil respiration measurements are interpreted without simultaneous information on labile carbon pool dynamics. Sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature is routinely derived directly from field observations, and such relationships have been used to extrapolate effects of global change (e.g., warming) on carbon emission from SOC. Here we use a multipool SOC model to demonstrate the impacts of seasonal fluctuations of labile carbon pools on interpretation of soil respiration measurements. We find that labile carbon pool sizes vary widely in response to seasonal changes in representative plant material inputs and temperature even though the model is operating at equilibrium in terms of annual means. Convolution of the dynamics of fast turnover carbon pools and temporal progression in temperature lead to misrepresentation and misinterpretation of the heterotrophic respiration-temperature relationships estimated from bulk soil CO2 exchanges. Temperature sensitivity is overestimated when the variations of labile carbon pools and temperature are in phase and underestimated when they are out of phase. Furthermore, with normally used observation time windows (weeks to a year), temperature sensitivity is more likely to be underestimated. A distortion of temperature sensitivity (Q10) from 2 (actual, sensitive dependence on temperature) to nearly 1 (false, no dependence on temperature) is shown. Applying estimated temperature sensitivity parameter back into the model considerably overestimates soil carbon storage at equilibrium. Our findings indicate that caution must be taken when soil respiration-temperature relationships are evaluated based on bulk soil observations and when sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature estimated directly INDEX under field conditions is used to predict future carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. TERMS: 1615 Global Change: Biogeochemical processes (4805); 0315 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Biosphere/atmosphere interactions; 3210 Mathematical Geophysics: Modeling; KEYWORDS: carbon cycling, soil respiration, soil organic carbon, temperature sensitivity (Q10), labile carbon, soil carbon dynamics Citation: Gu, L., W. M. Post, and A. W. King (2004), Fast labile carbon turnover obscures sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration from soil to temperature: A model analysis, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 18, GB1022, doi:10.1029/2003GB002119. 1. Introduction [2] SOC contains a mixture of dead plant and animal material derived substances with highly variable physical and chemical properties. Most SOC is stored in the top meter of soil [Jobba´gy and Jackson, 2000]. Globally, this layer of soil contains about 1500 Pg of carbon, which is more than the amount of carbon stored in the living plants and the atmosphere combined [Post et al., 1982; Sundquist, 1993; Schlesinger, 1997; Amundson, 2001]. Carbon emission (heterotrophic respiration) from this reservoir is the dominant flux balancing the carbon entering into the terrestrial biosphere through photosynthesis at various timeThis paper is not subject to U.S. Copyright. Published in 2004 by the American Geophysical Union. scales [Gu et al., 1999; Schlesinger and Andrews, 2000; Valentini et al., 2000]. How heterotrophic respiration responds to variations in environmental variables, particularly temperature, will critically determine the importance of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in affecting future atmospheric CO2 concentration [Cox et al., 2000; Friedlingstein et al., 2001; Jones et al., 2003; Friedlingstein et al., 2003]. [3] Seasonal and annual cycles in plant carbon inputs and variations in activities of microorganisms (decomposers) in soil, coupled with diurnal, seasonal, and interannual variations of environmental variables, make SOC a dynamic carbon reservoir. A convenient way to describe these dynamics is to represent SOC with several carbon pools characterized by distinct turnover times. For example, SOC models such as Century [Parton et al., 1987] and ROTHC [Jenkinson, 1990] often divide SOC into different GB1022 1 of 11 GB1022 GU ET AL.: LABILE CARBON DYNAMICS carbon pools with turnover times ranging from days to years to millennia. These characteristic turnover times are generally modified by temperature and other environmental factors. Currently, there is no satisfactory approach to physically or chemically separate the components of SOC according to different turnover rates [Trumbore, 1997], yet dynamic changes in the sizes of different carbon pools and their relative proportions can greatly complicate the relationship between temperature and respiration observed from bulk soil. Kirschbaum [1995] warned that the input of easily decomposable material is not evenly distributed through time and this could make difficult analysis of responses of decomposition to temperature that is based on seasonal variations of soil respiration. For deciduous forest ecosystems or grasslands that have summer as growing season, most fresh aboveground litter material becomes available during the cool time of the year. In these seasons, the higher quantity and quality of plant substrates lead to higher respiration rates that could be underestimated if a temperature-respiration relationship developed under warm growing season conditions is used. The reverse could be true for Mediterranean systems where vegetation activities and temperature regimes are out of phase (if moisture condition is taken into account). Trumbore [2000] emphasized that proper treatment of the heterogeneity in SOC decomposability is a premise for reliable evaluation of responses of soil carbon to climate change. She pointed out that an assumption of homogeneous SOC will lead to either underestimation or overestimation of responses of soil carbon reservoir to changes in plant material inputs and decomposition rates, depending on the timescales involved. [4] Given the complex nature of SOC and its dynamics, it is perhaps not surprising that presently there is considerable debate and inconsistency about the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature. Results from field experiments, laboratory incubation, and modeling studies are often at odds with each other [e.g., Kirschbaum, 1995; Trumbore et al., 1996; Bird et al., 1996; Townsend et al., 1997; Liski et al., 1999; Giardina and Ryan, 2000; Luo et al., 2001; Melillo et al., 2002; Jones et al., 2003]. While the Q10 (exponential) function has been widely used to describe responses of soil respiration to temperature, Lloyd and Taylor [1994] and Kirschbaum [1995], among others, have argued against its use. These researchers extracted data from published papers and showed that the Q10 itself decreased with temperature. Support for the suggestion of decreasing Q10 with temperature is provided by incubation experiments of Dalias et al. [2001], which showed that higher incubation temperature led to lower Q10 for straw carbon mineralization in a variety of forest soils. Further support comes from Xu and Qi [2001] and Janssens and Pilegaard [2003], who used chambers to measure CO2 efflux from soil surfaces and found that Q10 tended to be smaller in summer than in winter. However, Ka¨tterer et al. [1998] also used data published in the literature but found that different models, including the Q10 function, produced similar fit to the compiled data and better results were obtained when two-component models were used, indicating that proper representation of carbon pool composition GB1022 is more important than choosing a (marginally) better temperature response form. [5] Another important issue is whether carbon pools with different turnover times have similar sensitivity to temperature. Townsend et al. [1997] used incubation experiments to show that recalcitrant SOC is as sensitive to temperature as labile SOC. Consistent with these results, SOC models such as Century [Parton et al., 1987] and ROTHC [Jenkinson, 1990] adopt this notion of uniform temperature sensitivity and apply the same temperature modifiers to decomposition rates in different carbon pools. However, this appears to be in contradiction to results from field warming experiments [e.g., Luo et al., 2001; Melillo et al., 2002; Wan and Luo, 2003]. In these experiments, warming either failed to enhance soil respiration substantially or only produced a response that was limited to a very short initial time period. Rapid exhaustion of labile carbon pools has been used to explain the observed patterns. An implication of this explanation is that recalcitrant carbon, which is left after labile carbon is gone, is less or not sensitive to temperature change. In fact, Luo et al. [2001] and Wan and Luo [2003] reported that warming reduced temperature sensitivity. Giardina and Ryan [2000] presented an extreme argument that warming alone will not accelerate soil organic carbon decomposition, based on their finding of unvaried organic carbon decomposition rates across climate gradients in mean annual temperature. They suggested that substrate quality and quantity affect heterotrophic microbial activities and therefore can modify temperature-organic carbon decomposition relationships. [6] Until these inconsistencies and controversies are resolved, the role of global SOC in climate change will remain unclear and large uncertainties in the prediction of future atmospheric CO2 concentration will continue to exist [Jones et al., 2003]. The objective of this present study is to use a modeling approach to examine how the dynamics of labile carbon pools affect the representation and interpretation of the temperature-respiration relationships based on CO2 efflux measurements conducted on soil surfaces. The questions that we intend to answer include the following: How variable are different carbon pools at timescales ranging from several days to a year? How do variations in carbon pools affect heterotrophic respiration rates? Can temperature sensitivity of SOC decomposition be accurately inferred from CO2 efflux measurements conducted on soil surfaces? How well do the temperature-soil respiration relationships estimated with a homogeneous SOC assumption depict CO 2 efflux from heterogeneous SOC? How reliable are such relationships for predicting long-term soil carbon budgets? Answers to these questions can lead to an understanding of the current debate on responses of SOC decomposition to temperature changes and insights into the role of SOC in affecting atmospheric CO2 concentration. 2. Modeling Approach 2.1. Strategy [7] We explore the complexity in the soil respirationtemperature relationship caused by SOC pool dynamics. We 2 of 11 GB1022 GU ET AL.: LABILE CARBON DYNAMICS employ a multipool SOC model to simulate a time series of bulk soil respiration rates and then use the simulated time series to retrieve the temperature sensitivity parameter used in the model through regression as would be done under field conditions. Any difference between the retrieved value and the original value would represent distortion of sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature by SOC pool dynamics. Under field conditions, soil respiration is a combination of autotrophic respiration from roots and heterotrophic respiration from microbes, fungi, bacteria, etc. Both respond similarly to temperature and can be reinforced by such processes as nutrient cycling. Root growth phenology may be influenced by nutrient availability after periods of rapid decomposition. Root respiration is strongly linked to aboveground production and allocation over rapid timescales [Lee et al., 2003], while heterotrophic respiration is strongly influenced by the amount of decomposable plant material [Parkin and Kaspar, 2003]. Therefore these two sources of respiration may be largely independent. In this modeling study, we focus on the soil organic carbon pool dynamics and their effects on the representation and interpretation of responses of bulk SOC decomposition to variations in temperature. The presence of autotrophic respiration can complicate but not alter the nature of the issues interested in this study. Therefore we exclude root respiration from analysis for the sake of simplicity. Throughout this paper, when we speak of soil respiration in the modeling context, we always mean heterotrophic respiration. 2.2. Rothamsted SOC Model (ROTHC) [8] We use the ROTHC model to simulate decomposition of litter and soil organic carbon and the associated release of CO2 in heterotrophic respiration [Jenkinson, 1990; Coleman and Jenkinson, 1999]. The model splits soil organic carbon into four active pools and a small inert pool. The active pools are Decomposable Plant Material (DPM), Resistant Plant Material (RPM), Microbial Biomass (BIO), and Humified organic carbon (HUM). Incoming organic carbon passes through the decomposable and resistant plant material pools once (20% to DPM, 80% to RPM). Both DPM and RPM decompose to CO2 (which is lost to the atmosphere), BIO, and HUM. When BIO and HUM decompose, CO2 is released and new microbial biomass and humus are formed. The microbial biomass and humus are subject to continued decomposition. A small inert pool is assumed to be immune to biological attack. The dynamics of the four active carbon pools are described by a system of ordinary differential equations. The nominal decay rates of DPM, RPM, BIO, and HUM are set at 10.0, 0.3, 0.66, and 0.02 year1, corresponding to turnover times of 0.1, 3.3, 1.5, and 50 years, respectively. These nominal rates represent averages modified by environmental factors of temperature and soil moisture deficit. Decay rates and turnover times change at each time step as a result of changing environmental conditions and may be considerably larger or smaller than these nominal values. In particular, the temperature modifier may vary from 0 to over 4.0 and so turnover times may vary from less than one fourth to as much as twice their nominal values as GB1022 temperature changes. The original ROTHC temperature modifier is given by: f ðTs Þ ¼ 47:9 ; 106 1 þ exp Ts þ 18:3 ð1Þ where Ts is soil temperature (C). The temperature sensitivity represented by this function depends on temperature. This is not a desirable feature for the purpose of this analysis because our interest is to find out how carbon pool turnovers affect temperature sensitivity estimation. For the same reason, functions such as those advocated by Lloyd and Taylor [1994] and Kirschbaum [1995] also are not suitable. Therefore the original ROTHC temperature function is replaced by the following exponential function having a constant Q10 for all temperatures: Ts 10 f ðTs Þ ¼ 1:05Q1010 : ð2Þ To produce the simulation data set, we set Q10 = 2. We note that the temperature sensitivity we choose to use here is less than that of the original ROTHC temperature function (equation (1)) but in line with the value often used in climate studies [Jones et al., 2003; Jones and Cox, 2001]. The factor 1.05 is determined by matching the above Q10 function with the original ROTHC function at 9.25C (mean annual temperature at the Rothamsted Experimental Station, UK, f (Ts = 9.25C) = 1). The new temperature modifier is uniformly applied to all four active carbon pools as in the original model. 2.3. Simulation Procedures [9] In general, SOC models are run at large time steps (months or longer). However, field chamber measurements of soil respiration are often taken at much higher resolutions. To simulate soil respiration measurements, we run the ROTHC model at half-hourly intervals. The system of ordinary differential equations is solved numerically using the Crank-Nicholson Method. The model is driven by plant material inputs and temperature. No moisture stress is applied to avoid confounding effects of temperature and moisture on soil respiration. Two plant material input scenarios (Scenario 1 and Scenario 2) are used in the simulation (Figure 1a). Information on how total plant litter (leaves, twigs, reproductive plant parts, and roots) changes over season is extremely scarce. Both scenarios represent a combination of our qualitative understanding of seasonal dynamics in plant litter production and available data in the literature. Scenario 1 is modeled after observations of litterfall in a deciduous forest in east Tennessee [Grizzard et al., 1976] with an addition of assumed root litter input (the smaller hump in Scenario 1). Scenario 2 follows the observed distribution of leaf fall in a Loblolly pine stand in South Carolina [Van Lear and Goebel, 1976]. The annual total plant material input to SOC for both scenarios is about 840 g C m2, which is roughly the amount of net primary production predicted by the Miami model for a mean annual temperature of 15C with sufficient precipitation [Lieth, 3 of 11 GU ET AL.: LABILE CARBON DYNAMICS GB1022 GB1022 dynamics [Hanson et al., 1993, 2000; Wang et al., 2003]. It does not have to equal 1.05 mmol m2 s1 as in equation (2). Equation (2) (or equation (1)) is just a standard modifier for the nominal decomposition rates. However, an accurate retrieval procedure should give Q10 = 2, the value used in producing the simulation data set. Error characteristics of the obtained regression relationship in representation of instantaneous soil respiration rates is examined. We also apply the retrieved temperature sensitivity back into the ROTHC model with a new spinning-up process to see how the mean annual carbon contents of different pools at equilibrium deviate from their original value. 3. Results Figure 1. Scenarios of (a) plant litter inputs and (b) soil temperature used to generate the simulation data set. 1975]. To capture natural variability of temperature regimes, we use a half-hourly time series of soil temperature (Figure 1b) measured at a depth of 4 cm in 1995 at the Walker Branch eddy covariance flux tower site, located in Oak Ridge, Tennessee [Baldocchi and Wilson, 2001]. [10] The soil carbon contents at the beginning of the simulation are determined by spinning up the model until an ‘‘equilibrium steady state’’ is reached (the mean annual carbon content in each pool remains constant). After the mean annual carbon contents are stabilized, we run the model for 1 year to produce time series of SOC carbon pool sizes and bulk heterotrophic soil respiration rates. Then we try to retrieve the value of Q10 by regressing simulated respiration rates against soil temperature using different time windows (2 weeks, 4 weeks, irregular window, and whole year) based on the same relationship as equation (2), except that the factor 1.05 now becomes a free parameter, Ts 10 R ¼ R10 Q1010 ; ð3Þ where R10 is the respiration rate of the bulk SOC at 10C. Note that R10 in equation (3) should vary with carbon pool 3.1. Simulated Seasonal Patterns of Carbon Pools and Heterotrophic Soil Respiration [11] Even though the mean annual carbon contents of the four active carbon pools are stabilized after the model spin up, large seasonal variations in fast turnover pools still exist (Figures 2a, 2b, 2d, and 2e). DPM has the shortest turnover time. As a result of this and also because it directly receives fresh litter as input, it is the most dynamic pool in view of its annual mean pool size (Figures 2a and 2d). It reaches minimum in late summer just before annual plant senescence and mortality start to rapidly transfer litter materials into SOC. It then increases as the litter input outpaces the decomposition. DPM eventually peaks in late fall or early winter after the litter input reaches its maximum. Steady decline in DPM then occurs as the decomposition outpaces the litter input. Over much of the winter and following spring, DPM continues to decline even though the temperature is low, until the next year’s production starts to replenish it. RPM, which also receives fresh litter inputs directly, decomposes more slowly than DPM. However, it has a much larger pool size. Consequently, RPM has a greater absolute magnitude of seasonal cycle (note that the y axis scales are different in Figures 2b and 2e and in Figures 2a and 2d). BIO also varies seasonally (Figures 2a and 2d), but the variation is less conspicuous than DPM and RPM, albeit its turnover time is between DPM and RPM. This is because it is an internally cycling pool, which receives only inputs from the four carbon pools (including itself). These results indicate that fast turnover carbon pools can fluctuate widely at the seasonal timescale, even though the annual mean carbon pool sizes remain unvaried as the simulation is conducted at the equilibrium steady state. Only HUM, which is also an internally cycling pool and has a turnover time of half a century, keeps unchanged within the time framework under investigation (Figures 2b and 2e). [12] The simulated heterotrophic soil respiration shows seasonal patterns that are somewhat different between the two plant material input scenarios (compare Figures 2c and 2f ). Both the maximum respiration rate in summer and the minimum respiration rate in winter are larger in Scenario 2 than in Scenario 1. Scenario 2 also has a sharper late summer heterotrophic respiration peak than Scenario 1. The discrepancy exhibits more clearly in Figure 3, in which the differences between the two scenarios in heterotrophic respiration, DPM and RPM are shown together (note that 4 of 11 GB1022 GU ET AL.: LABILE CARBON DYNAMICS GB1022 Figure 2. (a, b, d, e) Simulated SOC carbon pools and (c, f ) bulk SOC decomposition rates under the two plant litter input scenarios. In Figures 2c and 2f the ranges of respiration variations are also shown. the difference in RPM is scaled by a factor of 1/6 so that it can be shown in the same figure). The difference in heterotrophic respiration is synchronized with the difference in DPM and slightly out of phase with the difference in RPM, indicating a bigger role played by DPM in causing the divergence between the two scenarios. This divergence is important because the respiratory processes of the two scenarios are driven by the same temperature regime (Figure 1b) and they have the same total annual plant material input. It arises purely from dissimilar seasonal distributions of plant material inputs (Figure 1a). 3.2. Retrieval of the Soil Respiration-Temperature Relationship [13] Figure 4 depicts changes of the retrieved Q10 value and respiration rate at 10C (R10) with time for Scenario 1. 5 of 11 GB1022 GU ET AL.: LABILE CARBON DYNAMICS GB1022 Figure 3. Seasonal variations in the differences in heterotrophic respiration rates and DPM and RPM pools between the two plant litter input scenarios (Scenario 1 – Scenario 2). RPM is scaled with a factor 1/6. Figure 5 is for Scenario 2. For easy comparison, seasonal patterns of DPM, RPM, and temperature are shown alongside (note that in order to display DPM and RPM in the same plot, RPM is rescaled as (actual RPM 1200)/8). Our simulation experiments show that the Q10 value retrieved from respiration rates of the bulk SOC is quite variable. It varies with time and the size of the time window from which the data are taken for the regression. This is not expected, because in our simulation run, the Q10 value is fixed at 2 for all carbon pools. Note that our simulation is a deterministic process. The higher-frequency, noise-like features in the seasonal variations of calculated soil respiration rates are due to fluctuations in the soil temperature used in driving the model. Therefore variations in the retrieved Q10 are not caused by environmental noises. [14] Careful examination of Figures 4 and 5 reveals that for a given regression time window, the retrieval process can either overestimate or underestimate the actual Q10 value, depending on the phase relation between the trends of soil temperature and DPM and to a slightly lesser extent, RMP as well, within the window. If the trends of these fast carbon pools and soil temperature are in phase, Q10 is overestimated. Conversely, if they are out of phase, Q10 is underestimated. This can be seen more clearly from variations of estimated Q10 using irregular windows marked by vertical lines in Figures 4a and 5a. These irregular windows are set so that trends of DPM (overall, seasonal patterns of DPM and RPM are similar, except for some short periods) and temperature are either in phase or out of phase. In Figure 4b, the Q 10 estimated from days 260 – 340 approaches 1, falsely indicating nearly no dependence of soil respiration to temperature. In this window, DPM and RPM increase while soil temperature decreases. In contrast, for the 2-week window around day 270 in both Figures 4b and 5b ( points marked by asterisks), DPM, RPM, and soil temperature all have a trend of increase, leading to an overestimated Q10. The indication that the distortion in Q10 is caused more by dynamics of DPM than by that of RPM comes from the window roughly from days 100– 160 in Figure 4. In this window, Q10 is overestimated as both DPM and temperature increase, but RPM decreases. Figure 4. (b) Q10 and (c) bulk SOC decomposition rates at 10C (R10), calculated using different regression windows for the plant litter input Scenario 1. (a) Seasonal patterns of DPM, RPM, and soil temperature are also shown. The RPM curve represents (actual RPM 1200)/8. Irregular windows, which are determined largely according to phase relations between DPM and temperature, are marked in Figure 4a. The star symbol in Figures 4a and 4b denotes the location of a 2-week regression window in which Q10 is overestimated. Note that during this window, temperature increases, and this increase is embedded in a broad, decreasing trend of temperature. During this time period, however, DPM increases. 6 of 11 GB1022 GU ET AL.: LABILE CARBON DYNAMICS GB1022 using the whole year as a single regression window and find that for both scenarios, the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature is underestimated (Q10 = 1.50 for Scenario 1 and 1.53 for Scenario 2, as compared to the actual Q10 = 2). [16] Seasonal patterns in estimated respiration rates at 10C (R10) follow the DPM and RPM pool dynamics rather closely although large deviations occur when regression time window increases (Figures 4c and 5c). This indicates that while bulk soil respiration rates cannot be used to reliably estimate the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature, they can be used to infer general seasonal patterns of the labile carbon dynamics if the regression window is sufficiently small and if respiration rates are normalized to the same temperature. In Scenario 1, estimated respiration rates at 10C fluctuate from 1 to 2.6 mmol m2 s1. In Scenario 2, this range is between 1.2 and 2.3 mmol m2 s1. For comparison, using the whole year as a regression window, the estimated respiration rate at 10C is 1.81 mmol m2 s1 for Scenarios 1 and 1.79 mmol m2 s1 for Scenario 2 thus falls within the ranges of values estimated from smaller time windows. Figure 5. Same as in Figure 4, except it is for the plant litter input Scenario 2. Nevertheless, we point out that SOC is a continuum; dividing it into distinctive pools is somewhat artificial and largely for the convenience of modeling; it is sufficient to attribute the distortion of Q10 to the dynamics of the labile component of SOC. [15] Using smaller time windows for regression can somewhat reduce variations in retrieved Q10 values. However, small windows do not guarantee reliable estimates. Large distortion can still occur if both DPM and temperature change rapidly (see the points marked with an asterisk in Figures 4b and 5b). While both underestimation and overestimation of Q10 can occur, underestimation is more likely to happen as the regression time window increases. Also, the magnitude of departure from the actual value is larger for underestimation than for overestimation. We also calculate the Q10 value of the bulk SOC respiration rate 3.3. Consequences of Applying Inappropriately Derived Temperature Sensitivity [17] Clearly, soil respiration is not just a function of environmental variables; it is also a function of carbon pool sizes. Simple regression functions that disregard the temporal dynamics and heterogeneous nature of SOC cannot adequately describe CO2 efflux from soil, yet such relationships have been commonly used in the literature as a framework to interpret field observations, to fill gaps in measurements, and to extrapolate in future predictions. To further illustrate the consequences of this practice, we compare the heterotrophic respiration rates calculated from equation (3) with the simulated ROTHC values. In this examination, the regression window is the whole year because this is the time span used in most soil respiration analyses. Figure 6 shows the seasonal patterns of the error (equation (3), ROTHC) for both input scenarios. Again the error is related to the seasonal patterns of the DPM and RPM pool sizes. Variations in the error of the regression function and in the sizes of DPM and RPM tend to be out of phase. This indicates that regression functions that do not account for the dynamics of heterogeneous SOC will introduce systematic errors in the estimation of soil respiration and in any secondary products that depend on soil respiration estimates (gross primary production calculated from eddy covariance measurements, for example). This applies not only to the Q10 (exponential) type of functions that do not account for pool size fluctuations but also to any model that treats SOC as a single homogeneous component. [18] An interesting, important question arises: How does inappropriately derived temperature sensitivity parameter affect long-term prediction of the soil carbon budget? This question cannot be directly answered here because we have forced the model to operate at equilibrium, meaning that annual production, which is fixed in this study, is balanced by annual respiration. However, we can examine the consequence on the soil carbon pool sizes at equilibrium by applying the retrieved Q10 back into the ROTHC 7 of 11 GB1022 GU ET AL.: LABILE CARBON DYNAMICS GB1022 scales smaller than a year, in response to the imbalance between fresh plant litter inputs and the decomposition process. Convolution of the dynamics of carbon pools and natural variations in temperature regimes can greatly distort the apparent sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature as estimated from measurements of respiration rates of bulk soils. In-phase changes between fast turnover pools and temperature regimes lead to overestimation of temperature sensitivity, whereas out-of-phase variations lead to underestimation. We have found that the simple regression relationship established from measured respiration rates of the bulk soil and temperature over a year has an error pattern related to seasonal variations in labile carbon pools. We have inferred, albeit indirectly, that the use of temperature sensitivity derived directly from measurements of respiration rates of bulk soils can significantly overestimate soil carbon storage and thus underestimate the potential of soil organic carbon as a source of CO2 for the atmosphere in long-term climate predictions. [20] Different seasonal distributions in plant litter inputs to SOC will influence the time when the temperature sensitivity estimation is distorted as well as the magnitude of distortion. However, distortion is likely unavoidable for any productive terrestrial ecosystem. To illustrate this point, we list the equations describing the dynamics of DPM and RPM in the ROTHC model here, Figure 6. Difference between the bulk SOC decomposition rates as estimated from the regression relationship (using the annual time window) and the original ROTHC simulation values. Seasonal patterns of DPM and RPM pools are also shown. The RPM curves represent (actual RPM 1200)/8. and re-spinning the model up. The difference in the soil carbon pool sizes between the original Q10(= 2) and the retrieved Q10 represents the accumulated difference in soil respiration over the spinning-up period. To make the equilibrium carbon pool sizes comparable between the original and retrieved Q10, we adjust the factor 1.05 in equation (2) exactly as is done for the original simulation so that the temperature modifier also equals 1 at the Rothamsted mean annual temperature (9.25C) for the retrieval simulation. All other conditions are kept unchanged. Figure 7 compares the original mean annual total active SOC at equilibrium with that obtained with the retrieved Q10 for both plant litter input scenarios. In both cases, the new Q10 leads to overestimation of total active SOC by about 22%. Applied globally and assuming a global soil carbon reservoir of 1500 Gt [Amundson, 2001], this would be equivalent to 330 Gt of carbon or about 44% of carbon currently in the atmosphere (here the small inert carbon pool in soil is neglected). 4. Discussion [19] In this modeling study, we have demonstrated that fast turnover pools of SOC can fluctuate widely at time- dcDPM ¼ ð1 d ÞI kDPM f ðTs Þf ðwÞf ð pÞcDPM dt dcRPM ¼ dI kRPM f ðTs Þf ðwÞf ð pÞcRPM ; dt ð4Þ where cDPM and cRPM are the pool sizes of DPM and RPM, respectively; kDPM and kRPM are the nominal decay Figure 7. Mean annual total active SOC at equilibrium in the original ROTHC simulation (Q10 = 2) compared with those in a new simulation after the standard temperature modifier is changed using the Q10 values obtained from the annual regressions (1.50 for Scenario 1 and 1.53 for Scenario 2). Base respiration rates at 10C are also adjusted to make the simulations comparable. The small inert carbon pool is neglected in this analysis. 8 of 11 GU ET AL.: LABILE CARBON DYNAMICS GB1022 constants of DPM and RPM, respectively; d is the fraction of litter input to RPM; f (Ts), f (w), and f ( p) are the modifiers for temperature, moisture, and plant retainment, respectively; I is plant litter input. Accurate estimation of temperature sensitivity from bulk soil respiration measurements requires cDPM and cRPM to be constant over time. However, this is a condition that cannot hold under field conditions at subannual timescales, because if they hold, we have ð1 d Þ I kDPM f ðTs Þf ðwÞf ð pÞ d I : ¼ kRPM f ðTs Þf ðwÞf ð pÞ cDPM ¼ cRPM ð5Þ Since Ts always changes with time, the condition that cDPM and cRPM are constant over time implies that I / f ðTs Þ: ð6Þ Condition (6) requires that plant litter input responds to temperature just like the decomposition process responds to temperature. This restraint may have some validity over many years at one location and across biomes as ecosystems reach equilibrium with their local climate and total soil respiration becomes a function of annual litterfall [Raich and Nadelhoffer, 1989; Davidson, 2002]. However, condition (6) cannot be true for timescales shorter than a few years because within this time framework, plant litter production is a function and integration of plant growth activities and cannot be in synchronization with temperature regimes, which can change rapidly. [21] Using short time observation windows for regression may allow us to obtain better results. However, under field conditions where temperature is not controllable, we almost always have to use large time windows so that we can have sufficient temperature range for reliable regression. Measurement errors and environmental noises provide additional requirement for longer regression time windows. This means that temperature sensitivity estimated from in situ measurements may be intrinsically unreliable. Furthermore, under natural conditions, out-of-phase variations in DPM and RPM and temperature are probably more likely to happen than in-phase variations between them. The warming trend in temperature (spring and early summer) is generally associated with recovery of vegetation activities from dormancy and lack of litter inputs to soil, whereas the cooling trend (late summer and fall) is generally associated with recession of photosynthesis and accumulation of fresh litter materials. Thus for most of the time during a year the warming trend tends to occur simultaneously with a depleting trend of DPM and RPM, whereas the cooling trend tends to take place at the same time as an accumulating trend of DPM and RPM. Therefore we can probably conclude that sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature is more likely to be underestimated than overestimated under field conditions. [22] In this study we only examine how co-variations in labile carbon pools and temperature regimes distort the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature. Other factors, particularly variations in soil moisture, may also affect GB1022 estimation of temperature sensitivity. For example, during a period when soil moisture decreases while temperature increases, the limiting effect of decreasing soil moisture will be transferred to a lower apparent Q10 if one tries to estimate Q10 by conducting regression between measured respiration and temperature. Temperature sensitivity would also be underestimated for periods when increase in soil moisture is accompanied by decrease in temperature. The opposite would be true if soil moisture and temperature vary in phase. [23] The composition of plant litter material may affect the magnitude of distortion in the estimation of sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature. A higher volatile component in the litter input will lead to greater seasonality of soil labile carbon pools and thus larger distortion of the estimated temperature sensitivity. Both our plant litter input scenarios are for forests, which have lower DPM:RPM ratios than crops or grasses. For croplands and grasslands, the uncertainties in temperature sensitivity estimated directly from bulk soil respiration measurements may be even larger than found here. 5. Conclusions [24] Our findings raise serious questions about the appropriateness of using in situ soil respiration measurements to evaluate broad relationships between soil respiration and temperature without information on labile carbon pool dynamics. In situ soil chamber measurements are now conducted routinely at numerous sites over the world. These measurements represent carbon exchanges of bulk soils with the atmosphere. Simple, single-pool temperature response functions are widely used to fit them. Changes in Q10 with season [Xu and Qi, 2001; Janssens and Pilegaard, 2003] and with warming [Luo et al., 2001] have been reported. These findings have been used as evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to temperature [Rustad, 2001]. However, without knowing how labile carbon pools were changing when these measurements were taken, there is no way to know whether these changes in estimated temperature sensitivity were real or just a distortion caused by labile carbon pool dynamics. Measurements of seasonal dynamics of carbon pool sizes along with seasonal dynamics of autotrophic contribution from roots are critical for appropriate interpretation of bulk soil respiration observations. The potential of automated chambers [Parkin and Kaspar, 2003; Edwards and Riggs, 2003] for understanding soil carbon dynamics can be fully realized only when respiration measurements are related to not only air and soil temperature but also rainfall, water content, root activities, labile carbon pools, and soil physical and chemical properties. [25] Unfortunately, there are not yet standard approaches for accomplishing measurements of imprecisely defined conceptual soil organic carbon pools and fluxes [Trumbore, 1997; Hanson et al., 2000; Six et al., 2000a]. Method improvements for isolating root and microbial respiration in the field are yielding useful results for separating these processes that have substantially different controlling factors and dynamics at a range of timescales [Lee et al., 2003]. 9 of 11 GB1022 GU ET AL.: LABILE CARBON DYNAMICS A variety of methods are showing considerable promise in quantifying organic carbon pools that may be regarded as decomposable plant carbon. These include separation of particulate organic carbon from mineral-associated organic carbon [Jastrow, 1996], isolating organic carbon fractions from mineral soil aggregates of different size and stability [Six et al., 2000b, 2002], and short- or long-term laboratory incubations [Paul et al., 2001, 2003]. 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