12K 20 TECH TRENDS WE KEEP AN EYE ON Q1 2015 1 First, a few words on the guys who wrote this report 12K 2 We are a computational research company 12K combines a hunch for societal change with data science skills to help companies make the right decisions. ! We do trend studies We systematically analyze avant-garde sources to discover, quantify and illustrate trends in the fields of technology and culture. ! We build research tools There is data online on what people read, share, search, eat, listen and do. We build tools that turn this data into business insights. ! We are 12K! 12K was founded by Jan Tewes Thede and Christoph Schwienheer in Berlin. Jan worked 8 years in trend research for clients such as Coca-Cola, Deutsche Telekom, Google, Axel Springer and Volkswagen. He holds a math degree and a PhD in economics. Christoph has 15 years experience in technology consulting and software product development. He studied computer science and philosophy. 12K 3 We build a tool that helps you stay up-to-date on all relevant trends by screening expert media sources systematically. It evaluates trends quantitatively and ensures that you never miss a relevant trend signal. Check out the public showcase of the 12K MONITOR here 12K 4 The 12K MONITOR makes monitoring trends as easy as checking the weather DASHBOARD BACKEND 12K Media Database Diffusion Analyzer Before setting up your 12K MONITOR, we identify the most relevant expert sources in your area of interest. Then we start to gather articles from your topicspecific media landscape daily. Analyze the diffusion process of all monitored trends. See which trends are taking off and which are slowing down. Get real-time quantifications for all your trends. Trend Pool Signal Stream You can follow an unlimited number of trends with the 12K MONITOR. Define your trend parameters with simple search queries to make them quantitatively ascertainable. Get all the relevant news related to your trends. Share interesting trend signals with your colleagues. We adjust the dashboard to your needs with customized features. 5 Why it makes sense to analyze the media attention of trends 12K 6 The media defines and reflects how people and companies act. Our research shows that coverage in expert media is a leading indicator for the economic potential of a trend. Worldwide netbook shipments Coverage of netbooks in tech media Leading Indicator 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sources: IHS / 12K MONITOR 12K 7 Every tech trend is unique. But the reception of trends in expert media follows typical diffusion patterns. Understanding these patterns makes it easier to evaluate trends. Expert Media Attention EMERGENCE EXPANSION First prototypes hit the market but it is not yet foreseeable how relevant it will become. Early stage trends provide the opportunity to be a first mover for risk-affine companies. The most exciting phase of trend diffusion process. players, business models ideas pop-up everywhere. perfect phase to address trend publicly. 12K the New and The the VERTEX NORMALIZATION DECLINE Media attention reaches its peak while the creation of new ideas slows down. It becomes clear which business models and potential partners have the best conditions. The dust settles as the trend enters a phase of normality. You won’t be a first mover but this is the perfect time to learn from others and choose the right path. The economic potential of the trend shrinks. Established business models are still profitable but it is definitely too late for bigger investments in this trend. 8 We analyzed more than 1 million articles in the world’s leading tech media sources to better understand 20 of today’s most interesting technological trends Here are the results… 12K 9 Tech Media Analysis Q1 2015 Apple Watch draws attention to Wearable Tech. Virtual Reality is taking off. 75 Virtual Reality 60 45 6-month Growth Autonomous cars Chinese Tech Players Wearable Tech Connected Everything 30 Drones Artificial Intelligence 15 Predictive Analytics Virtual Assistants Self Enhancement Online Learning Privacy and Security Fintech Brain Computer Interfaces 0 Robots 3D Printing Cryptocurrencies Crowdfunding Life Sciences Messaging -15 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Attention in Q1 2015 12K 10 3D PRINTING 3D-printed prosthetics, apartment buildings and pasta are just the beginning. Soon, everything you can imagine could be printed. No one will need expensive industrial machines to turn digital models into solid objects. MEDIA ANALYSIS INTERESTING READS Diffusion Status Attention in Q1 2015 NORMALIZATION 137 6-month Growth 9/20 +11 9/20 The Next Phase Of 3D Printing a16z Podcast Mainstream 3D Printer Ownership To Build Slowly TechCrunch We Just Discovered What 4D Printing Is And Our Mind Is Blown Business Insider 2008 12K 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Follow this trend with the 12K MONITOR 11 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE The 58 years old field of AI research is gaining momentum again. In 2014, 16 AI companies were funded for the first time, up from two in 2010. Eric Schmidt expects artificial intelligence to be “the biggest thing”. Computers will soon not only know how we feel but also be smarter than us… MEDIA ANALYSIS INTERESTING READS Diffusion Status Attention in Q1 2015 EXPANSION 126 6-month Growth 11/20 +16 7/20 Our Fear Of Artificial Intelligence MIT Technology Review I'll Be Back: The Return Of Artificial Intelligence Bloomberg Business Betaworks CEO: There Will Be No Line Between Us And Our Devices Backchannel 2008 12K 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Follow this trend with the 12K MONITOR 12 AUTONOMOUS CARS Self-driving cars will fundamentally change the automotive industry. Established companies will have to adjust their strategies as new players like Tesla, Apple and Google enter the market. MEDIA ANALYSIS INTERESTING READS Diffusion Status Attention in Q1 2015 EXPANSION 133 6-month Growth 10/20 +42 2/20 I Rode 500 Miles In A Self-Driving Car And Saw The Future Wired I Find Your Lack Of Faith In Autonomous Cars Disturbing Mitch Turck Elon Musk: Cars You Can Drive Will Eventually Be Outlawed The Verge 2008 12K 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Follow this trend with the 12K MONITOR 13 BRAIN COMPUTER INTERFACES What’s next after the mouse, the touchscreen and voice control? Your brain! Mindleap just introduced a technology that lets you control virtual reality games with your mind. MEDIA ANALYSIS INTERESTING READS Diffusion Status Attention in Q1 2015 EMERGENCE 28 6-month Growth 19/20 +2 17/20 Mind Plus Machine Slate Dell Develops Mood-reading Tech For The Office And Play BBC Brain-to-brain Verbal Communication In Humans Achieved CNET 2008 12K 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Follow this trend with the 12K MONITOR 14 CHINESE TECH PLAYERS Established Chinese players like Huawei, Xiaomi and Alibaba reach out for the global market while a new set of Chinese tech giants is on the rise. 15 Chinese tech companies raised $100M+ in 2014. MEDIA ANALYSIS INTERESTING READS Diffusion Status Attention in Q1 2015 EXPANSION 154 6-month Growth 8/20 +39 4/20 Xioami’s Ambition Stratechery Tencent – The Secretive, Chinese Tech Giant Fast Company What Is Alibaba? Wall Street Journal 2008 12K 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Follow this trend with the 12K MONITOR 15 CONNECTED EVERYTHING While almost every computer and person is online today, the internet is entering a new stage: cars, animals, plants, scales, toothbrushes, thermostats and practically everything you can think of will soon be smart and connected. MEDIA ANALYSIS INTERESTING READS Diffusion Status Attention in Q1 2015 EXPANSION 160 6-month Growth 6/20 +33 5/20 The Internet Of Things Is Far Bigger Than Anyone Realizes Wired The Internet Of Things Is Reaching Escape Velocity TechCrunch The Real Money Is The Internet, Not The Things ReadWrite 2008 12K 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Follow this trend with the 12K MONITOR 16 CROWDFUNDING In 2014, 3.3 million people pledged more than half a billion dollars on Kickstarter. But the main drivers for this fast-growing market are not Kickstarter and its competitors but lending-based and equity-based crowdfunding platforms. MEDIA ANALYSIS INTERESTING READS Diffusion Status Attention in Q1 2015 NORMALIZATION 123 6-month Growth 12/20 -3 18/20 Crowd Investing Is The New Way To Finance Technology Development MIT Technology Review Why Crowd-funding Is Set To Explode Over The Next Few Years Quartz The Year In Kickstarter 2014 Kickstarter 2008 12K 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Follow this trend with the 12K MONITOR 17 CRYPTOCURRENCIES The bitcoin price is still far below its peak in 2013. But the latest investments in Coinbase ($75m) and 21 Inc ($116m) make sure that investors (like Andreessen Horowitz) still believe in cryptocurrencies. MEDIA ANALYSIS INTERESTING READS Diffusion Status Attention in Q1 2015 EXPANSION 115 6-month Growth 13/20 +8 13/20 Darwin And The Evolution Of Cryptocurrency CoinDesk Living On Bitcoin TechCrunch At Home With Silicon Valley’s Young Bitcoin Stars Fusion 2008 12K 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Follow this trend with the 12K MONITOR 18 DRONES Farmers, oil companies, photographers and drug dealers have already discovered the usefulness of drones. But the biggest potential lies in the field of logistics. Amazon just got permission to start testing their delivery drones. MEDIA ANALYSIS INTERESTING READS Diffusion Status Attention in Q1 2015 EXPANSION 179 6-month Growth 5/20 +29 6/20 The Dawn Of The Flying Smartphone Motherboard Why The Drone Revolution Can’t Get Off The Ground The Kernel Build Cargo Drones, Get Rich The Verge 2008 12K 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Follow this trend with the 12K MONITOR 19 FINTECH Apple, Samsung and Google started mobile payment services. Social Networks like Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat and WeChat introduced money transfer features. Goldman Sachs analysts predict that $11 bn. of banking profits could shift to P2P lending services like Lendable or Lending Club. MEDIA ANALYSIS INTERESTING READS Diffusion Status Attention in Q1 2015 EXPANSION 88 6-month Growth 14/20 +4 15/20 Andreessen On Finance: ‘We Can Reinvent The Entire Thing’ Bloomberg Business Tech Investors Have Gone To War Against Banks Business Insider 15 Fintech Startups To Watch In 2015 Forbes 2008 12K 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Follow this trend with the 12K MONITOR 20 LIFE SCIENCES Investors like Peter Thiel are betting on biotech, and Google has more than 100 doctors and researchers working on its health projects. These efforts may (or may not) help to cure cancer but they also carry the threat of a two-class society with genetically optimized superhumans and the rest. MEDIA ANALYSIS INTERESTING READS Diffusion Status Attention in Q1 2015 EMERGENCE 64 6-month Growth 16/20 -4 15/20 Engineering The Perfect Baby MIT Technology Review Google Ventures And The Search For Immortality Bloomberg Business Super-Intelligent Humans Are Coming Nautilus 2008 12K 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Follow this trend with the 12K MONITOR 21 MESSAGING At the end of 2014, Fred Wilson stated that Messaging is the new social media. This prediction is quite likely to happen as chat apps like Facebook Messenger or Snapchat grow way faster than Facebook, Twitter, Instagram & Co. MEDIA ANALYSIS INTERESTING READS Diffusion Status Attention in Q1 2015 VERTEX 160 6-month Growth 7/20 -5 20/20 Why Apps For Messaging Are Trending The New York Times Facebook Messenger Wants To Rule Your Conversations Backchannel Messaging Is The Medium a16z Podcast 2008 12K 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Follow this trend with the 12K MONITOR 22 ONLINE LEARNING The web is changing how, when and what people learn. The higher education eLearning market grew at a CAGR of 25% over the last two years. MOOCs like Codecademy (24 million users) or Coursera (22 million students) are becoming a mass phenomenon. MEDIA ANALYSIS INTERESTING READS Diffusion Status Attention in Q1 2015 NORMALIZATION 52 6-month Growth 17/20 +4 16/20 What Are MOOCs Good For? MIT Technology Review Degrees Don’t Matter Anymore, Skills Do Quartz Can Online Classrooms Help The Developing World Catch Up? The Verge 2008 12K 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Follow this trend with the 12K MONITOR 23 PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS Predictive analytics is the art of using data to predict which customers are at risk, which hire your company should make, which movie will win an Oscar or where a crime will happen. Expect way more use cases to come... MEDIA ANALYSIS INTERESTING READS Diffusion Status Attention in Q1 2015 EXPANSION 40 6-month Growth 18/20 +9 12/20 Can Intelligence Analysts Predict The Future? Popular Science What Your Tweets Say About You? The New Yorker #gunfire: Can Twitter Really Help Cops Find Crime? The Verge 2008 12K 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Follow this trend with the 12K MONITOR 24 PRIVACY AND SECURITY Even if 6-step authentication won’t come into vogue as Bernard Moon predicted, it is quite likely that privacy and data security will become more important for customers. According to a a Symantec report, five out of six companies employing more than 2,500 people were targets of cyber attacks last year. MEDIA ANALYSIS INTERESTING READS Diffusion Status Attention in Q1 2015 EXPANSION 264 6-month Growth 2/20 +10 10/20 9 Facts About Computer Security That Experts Wish You Knew Gizmodo Public Perceptions Of Privacy And Security In The Post-Snowden Era Pew Research Center Security’s Wakeup Call a16z Podcast 2008 12K 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Follow this trend with the 12K MONITOR 25 ROBOTS Expect robots to become irreplaceable members of our societies. They already assist in stores, care for the eldery, clean rooms, perform surgeries and run hotels. MEDIA ANALYSIS INTERESTING READS Diffusion Status Attention in Q1 2015 EMERGENCE 211 6-month Growth 4/20 +12 8/20 The Robots Running This Way MIT Technology Review Robots Can’t Dance. Why The Singularity Is Greatly Exaggerated Nautilus Why It’s Almost Impossible To Teach A Robot To Do Your Laundry Matter 2008 12K 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Follow this trend with the 12K MONITOR 26 SELF ENHANCEMENT Silicon Valley companies build apps and devices that help us to optimize our sleep, fitness, brain and social relationships. Now they are also entering the chemistry / nutrition market to make us even smarter, healthier and more productive. MEDIA ANALYSIS INTERESTING READS Diffusion Status Attention in Q1 2015 EMERGENCE 25 6-month Growth 20/20 +5 14/20 I Tried Silicon Valley’s Favorite ‘Brain-Enhancing’ Drugs Fusion Behind The Cutting-edge DIY Drug Movement The Kernel Big Mother Is Watching You Buzzfeed 2008 12K 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Follow this trend with the 12K MONITOR 27 VIRTUAL ASSISTANTS Siri, Google Now, Microsoft Cortana or Amazon Echo are little more than gimmicks today. But with fast progress in the field of artificial intelligence, these technologies will become smarter and smarter. Most of us won’t be able to survive without these virtual assistants in the future. MEDIA ANALYSIS INTERESTING READS Diffusion Status Attention in Q1 2015 EXPANSION 98 6-month Growth 14/20 +9 11/20 How Close Are We to Getting Virt. Assistants Like Samantha in Her? New York Magazine What The Apple Watch Could Be TechCrunch Our Devices Are Listening To Us All The Time – But Do We Care? CNET 2008 12K 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Follow this trend with the 12K MONITOR 28 VIRTUAL REALITY Do you know anyone who wasn’t impressed after trying Sony Morpheus, Microsoft HoloLens, HTC/Valve Vive or Musion Eyeliner System? Analysts expect virtual reality to disrupt the entertainment industry as well as many professional fields. MEDIA ANALYSIS INTERESTING READS Diffusion Status Attention in Q1 2015 EXPANSION 231 6-month Growth 3/20 +69 1/20 Why Virtual Reality Doesn’t Need A Killer App To Get Huge Wired The Last Medium Virtual Reality Is Here. The California Sunday Magazine The Rise And Fall And Rise Of Virtual Reality The Verge 2008 12K 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Follow this trend with the 12K MONITOR 29 WEARABLE TECH The era when smartphones were the only smart device you carried will surely end soon. Smart rings, watches, bags, shirts and contact lenses will soon be part of our daily life. MEDIA ANALYSIS INTERESTING READS Diffusion Status Attention in Q1 2015 EXPANSION 282 6-month Growth 1/20 +40 3/20 From Smart Watches To Exoskeletons: The Future Of Wearables NYC Media Lab Notes Wearables: One-third Of Consumers Abandoning Devices The Guardian Meet The Godfather Of Wearables The Verge 2008 12K 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Follow this trend with the 12K MONITOR 30 Get in touch at [email protected] if you want to take a closer look at any of these trends. ! Check the latest development of all the introduced trends at monitor.12k.co. ! Give us a call on +49 (0)30-715 513 27 or go to 12k.co if you want to know more. We are looking forward to hearing from you. 12K www.12k.co/imprint
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