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20 TECH TRENDS WE KEEP AN EYE ON Q1 2015
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First, a few words on the
guys who wrote this report
12K
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We are a computational research company
12K combines a hunch for societal change with data science skills to
help companies make the right decisions.
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We do trend studies
We systematically analyze avant-garde sources to discover, quantify
and illustrate trends in the fields of technology and culture.
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We build research tools
There is data online on what people read, share, search, eat, listen
and do. We build tools that turn this data into business insights.
!
We are 12K!
12K was founded by Jan Tewes Thede and Christoph Schwienheer in
Berlin. Jan worked 8 years in trend research for clients such as
Coca-Cola, Deutsche Telekom, Google, Axel Springer and Volkswagen.
He holds a math degree and a PhD in economics. Christoph has 15
years experience in technology consulting and software product
development. He studied computer science and philosophy.
12K
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We build a tool that helps you stay
up-to-date on all relevant trends
by screening expert media sources
systematically. It evaluates trends
quantitatively and ensures that you
never miss a relevant trend signal.
Check out the public showcase of the 12K MONITOR here
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The 12K MONITOR makes monitoring trends
as easy as checking the weather
DASHBOARD
BACKEND
12K
Media Database Diffusion Analyzer Before setting up your 12K MONITOR, we
identify the most relevant expert sources
in your area of interest. Then we start
to gather articles from your topicspecific media landscape daily.
Analyze the diffusion process of all
monitored trends. See which trends are
taking off and which are slowing down. Get
real-time quantifications for all your
trends.
Trend Pool Signal Stream You can follow an unlimited number of
trends with the 12K MONITOR. Define your
trend parameters with simple search
queries to make them quantitatively
ascertainable.
Get all the relevant news related to
your trends. Share interesting trend
signals with your colleagues. We adjust
the dashboard to your needs with
customized features.
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Why it makes sense to analyze the
media attention of trends
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The media defines and reflects how people and companies act. Our research shows that
coverage in expert media is a leading indicator for the economic potential of a trend.
Worldwide netbook shipments
Coverage of netbooks in tech media
Leading Indicator
2007
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2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Sources: IHS / 12K MONITOR
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Every tech trend is unique. But the reception of trends in expert media follows typical
diffusion patterns. Understanding these patterns makes it easier to evaluate trends.
Expert Media Attention
EMERGENCE
EXPANSION
First prototypes hit the market
but it is not yet foreseeable
how relevant it will become.
Early stage trends provide the
opportunity to be a first mover
for risk-affine companies.
The most exciting phase of
trend diffusion process.
players, business models
ideas pop-up everywhere.
perfect phase to address
trend publicly.
12K
the
New
and
The
the
VERTEX
NORMALIZATION
DECLINE
Media attention reaches its peak
while the creation of new ideas
slows down. It becomes clear
which business models and
potential partners have the best
conditions.
The dust settles as the trend
enters a phase of normality. You
won’t be a first mover but this
is the perfect time to learn
from others and choose the right
path.
The economic potential of the
trend shrinks. Established
business models are still
profitable but it is definitely
too late for bigger investments
in this trend.
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We analyzed more than 1 million articles in the world’s leading tech media
sources to better understand 20 of today’s most interesting technological trends
Here are the results…
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Tech Media Analysis Q1 2015 Apple Watch draws attention to Wearable Tech. Virtual Reality is taking off.
75
Virtual Reality
60
45
6-month Growth
Autonomous cars
Chinese Tech Players
Wearable Tech
Connected Everything
30
Drones
Artificial Intelligence
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Predictive Analytics
Virtual Assistants
Self Enhancement
Online Learning
Privacy and Security
Fintech
Brain Computer Interfaces
0
Robots
3D Printing
Cryptocurrencies
Crowdfunding
Life Sciences
Messaging
-15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Attention in Q1 2015
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3D PRINTING 3D-printed prosthetics, apartment buildings and pasta are just the beginning. Soon,
everything you can imagine could be printed. No one will need expensive industrial
machines to turn digital models into solid objects.
MEDIA ANALYSIS
INTERESTING READS
Diffusion Status
Attention in Q1 2015
NORMALIZATION
137
6-month Growth
9/20
+11
9/20
The Next Phase Of 3D Printing a16z Podcast
Mainstream 3D Printer Ownership To
Build Slowly TechCrunch
We Just Discovered What 4D Printing Is
And Our Mind Is Blown
Business Insider
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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE The 58 years old field of AI research is gaining momentum again. In 2014, 16 AI companies were funded for
the first time, up from two in 2010. Eric Schmidt expects artificial intelligence to be “the biggest
thing”. Computers will soon not only know how we feel but also be smarter than us…
MEDIA ANALYSIS
INTERESTING READS
Diffusion Status
Attention in Q1 2015
EXPANSION
126
6-month Growth
11/20
+16
7/20
Our Fear Of Artificial Intelligence MIT Technology Review
I'll Be Back: The Return Of Artificial Intelligence Bloomberg Business
Betaworks CEO: There Will Be No Line
Between Us And Our Devices Backchannel
2008
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AUTONOMOUS CARS Self-driving cars will fundamentally change the automotive industry.
Established companies will have to adjust their strategies as new
players like Tesla, Apple and Google enter the market.
MEDIA ANALYSIS
INTERESTING READS
Diffusion Status
Attention in Q1 2015
EXPANSION
133
6-month Growth
10/20
+42
2/20
I Rode 500 Miles In A Self-Driving Car And Saw The Future Wired
I Find Your Lack Of Faith In Autonomous
Cars Disturbing
Mitch Turck
Elon Musk: Cars You Can Drive Will
Eventually Be Outlawed The Verge
2008
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BRAIN COMPUTER INTERFACES What’s next after the mouse, the touchscreen and voice control? Your brain!
Mindleap just introduced a technology that lets you control virtual reality
games with your mind.
MEDIA ANALYSIS
INTERESTING READS
Diffusion Status
Attention in Q1 2015
EMERGENCE
28
6-month Growth
19/20
+2
17/20
Mind Plus Machine Slate
Dell Develops Mood-reading Tech For The Office And Play BBC
Brain-to-brain Verbal Communication In Humans Achieved CNET
2008
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CHINESE TECH PLAYERS Established Chinese players like Huawei, Xiaomi and Alibaba reach out
for the global market while a new set of Chinese tech giants is on the
rise. 15 Chinese tech companies raised $100M+ in 2014.
MEDIA ANALYSIS
INTERESTING READS
Diffusion Status
Attention in Q1 2015
EXPANSION
154
6-month Growth
8/20
+39
4/20
Xioami’s Ambition Stratechery
Tencent – The Secretive, Chinese Tech Giant Fast Company
What Is Alibaba? Wall Street Journal
2008
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CONNECTED EVERYTHING While almost every computer and person is online today, the internet is entering a new stage:
cars, animals, plants, scales, toothbrushes, thermostats and practically everything you can
think of will soon be smart and connected.
MEDIA ANALYSIS
INTERESTING READS
Diffusion Status
Attention in Q1 2015
EXPANSION
160
6-month Growth
6/20
+33
5/20
The Internet Of Things Is Far Bigger
Than Anyone Realizes Wired
The Internet Of Things Is Reaching Escape Velocity TechCrunch
The Real Money Is The Internet, Not The Things ReadWrite
2008
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CROWDFUNDING In 2014, 3.3 million people pledged more than half a billion dollars on Kickstarter. But the main drivers for this fast-growing market are not Kickstarter and its
competitors but lending-based and equity-based crowdfunding platforms.
MEDIA ANALYSIS
INTERESTING READS
Diffusion Status
Attention in Q1 2015
NORMALIZATION
123
6-month Growth
12/20
-3
18/20
Crowd Investing Is The New Way To
Finance Technology Development MIT Technology Review
Why Crowd-funding Is Set To Explode
Over The Next Few Years Quartz
The Year In Kickstarter 2014
Kickstarter
2008
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CRYPTOCURRENCIES The bitcoin price is still far below its peak in 2013. But the latest investments in
Coinbase ($75m) and 21 Inc ($116m) make sure that investors (like Andreessen
Horowitz) still believe in cryptocurrencies.
MEDIA ANALYSIS
INTERESTING READS
Diffusion Status
Attention in Q1 2015
EXPANSION
115
6-month Growth
13/20
+8
13/20
Darwin And The Evolution Of Cryptocurrency CoinDesk
Living On Bitcoin TechCrunch
At Home With Silicon Valley’s Young Bitcoin Stars Fusion
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DRONES Farmers, oil companies, photographers and drug dealers have already discovered the usefulness
of drones. But the biggest potential lies in the field of logistics. Amazon just got
permission to start testing their delivery drones.
MEDIA ANALYSIS
INTERESTING READS
Diffusion Status
Attention in Q1 2015
EXPANSION
179
6-month Growth
5/20
+29
6/20
The Dawn Of The Flying Smartphone Motherboard
Why The Drone Revolution Can’t Get Off The Ground
The Kernel
Build Cargo Drones, Get Rich The Verge
2008
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FINTECH Apple, Samsung and Google started mobile payment services. Social Networks like Facebook, Twitter,
Snapchat and WeChat introduced money transfer features. Goldman Sachs analysts predict that $11 bn.
of banking profits could shift to P2P lending services like Lendable or Lending Club.
MEDIA ANALYSIS
INTERESTING READS
Diffusion Status
Attention in Q1 2015
EXPANSION
88
6-month Growth
14/20
+4
15/20
Andreessen On Finance: ‘We Can Reinvent
The Entire Thing’ Bloomberg Business
Tech Investors Have Gone To War Against
Banks
Business Insider
15 Fintech Startups To Watch
In 2015 Forbes
2008
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LIFE SCIENCES Investors like Peter Thiel are betting on biotech, and Google has more than 100 doctors and researchers
working on its health projects. These efforts may (or may not) help to cure cancer but they also carry
the threat of a two-class society with genetically optimized superhumans and the rest.
MEDIA ANALYSIS
INTERESTING READS
Diffusion Status
Attention in Q1 2015
EMERGENCE
64
6-month Growth
16/20
-4
15/20
Engineering The
Perfect Baby MIT Technology Review
Google Ventures And The Search For Immortality
Bloomberg Business
Super-Intelligent Humans Are Coming Nautilus
2008
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MESSAGING At the end of 2014, Fred Wilson stated that Messaging is the new social media. This
prediction is quite likely to happen as chat apps like Facebook Messenger or Snapchat
grow way faster than Facebook, Twitter, Instagram & Co.
MEDIA ANALYSIS
INTERESTING READS
Diffusion Status
Attention in Q1 2015
VERTEX
160
6-month Growth
7/20
-5
20/20
Why Apps For Messaging Are Trending The New York Times
Facebook Messenger Wants To Rule Your Conversations Backchannel
Messaging Is The Medium a16z Podcast
2008
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ONLINE LEARNING The web is changing how, when and what people learn. The higher education eLearning market grew
at a CAGR of 25% over the last two years. MOOCs like Codecademy (24 million users) or Coursera
(22 million students) are becoming a mass phenomenon.
MEDIA ANALYSIS
INTERESTING READS
Diffusion Status
Attention in Q1 2015
NORMALIZATION
52
6-month Growth
17/20
+4
16/20
What Are MOOCs Good For? MIT Technology Review
Degrees Don’t Matter Anymore, Skills Do Quartz
Can Online Classrooms Help The
Developing World Catch Up? The Verge
2008
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PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS Predictive analytics is the art of using data to predict which customers are at risk, which
hire your company should make, which movie will win an Oscar or where a crime will happen.
Expect way more use cases to come...
MEDIA ANALYSIS
INTERESTING READS
Diffusion Status
Attention in Q1 2015
EXPANSION
40
6-month Growth
18/20
+9
12/20
Can Intelligence Analysts Predict The Future? Popular Science
What Your Tweets Say About You? The New Yorker
#gunfire: Can Twitter Really
Help Cops Find Crime? The Verge
2008
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PRIVACY AND SECURITY Even if 6-step authentication won’t come into vogue as Bernard Moon predicted, it is quite likely that privacy
and data security will become more important for customers. According to a a Symantec report, five out of six
companies employing more than 2,500 people were targets of cyber attacks last year.
MEDIA ANALYSIS
INTERESTING READS
Diffusion Status
Attention in Q1 2015
EXPANSION
264
6-month Growth
2/20
+10
10/20
9 Facts About Computer Security That
Experts Wish You Knew Gizmodo
Public Perceptions Of Privacy And
Security In The Post-Snowden Era Pew Research Center
Security’s Wakeup Call a16z Podcast
2008
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ROBOTS Expect robots to become irreplaceable members of our societies.
They already assist in stores, care for the eldery, clean rooms,
perform surgeries and run hotels.
MEDIA ANALYSIS
INTERESTING READS
Diffusion Status
Attention in Q1 2015
EMERGENCE
211
6-month Growth
4/20
+12
8/20
The Robots Running
This Way MIT Technology Review
Robots Can’t Dance. Why The Singularity Is Greatly Exaggerated Nautilus
Why It’s Almost Impossible To Teach A Robot To Do Your Laundry Matter
2008
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SELF ENHANCEMENT Silicon Valley companies build apps and devices that help us to optimize our sleep, fitness, brain
and social relationships. Now they are also entering the chemistry / nutrition market to make us
even smarter, healthier and more productive.
MEDIA ANALYSIS
INTERESTING READS
Diffusion Status
Attention in Q1 2015
EMERGENCE
25
6-month Growth
20/20
+5
14/20
I Tried Silicon Valley’s Favorite
‘Brain-Enhancing’ Drugs Fusion
Behind The Cutting-edge DIY Drug
Movement The Kernel
Big Mother Is Watching You Buzzfeed
2008
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VIRTUAL ASSISTANTS Siri, Google Now, Microsoft Cortana or Amazon Echo are little more than gimmicks today. But with fast
progress in the field of artificial intelligence, these technologies will become smarter and smarter.
Most of us won’t be able to survive without these virtual assistants in the future.
MEDIA ANALYSIS
INTERESTING READS
Diffusion Status
Attention in Q1 2015
EXPANSION
98
6-month Growth
14/20
+9
11/20
How Close Are We to Getting Virt.
Assistants Like Samantha in Her? New York Magazine
What The Apple Watch Could Be TechCrunch
Our Devices Are Listening To Us All The
Time – But Do We Care? CNET
2008
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VIRTUAL REALITY Do you know anyone who wasn’t impressed after trying Sony Morpheus, Microsoft HoloLens,
HTC/Valve Vive or Musion Eyeliner System? Analysts expect virtual reality to disrupt
the entertainment industry as well as many professional fields.
MEDIA ANALYSIS
INTERESTING READS
Diffusion Status
Attention in Q1 2015
EXPANSION
231
6-month Growth
3/20
+69
1/20
Why Virtual Reality Doesn’t Need A
Killer App To Get Huge Wired
The Last Medium
Virtual Reality Is Here. The California Sunday Magazine
The Rise And Fall And Rise Of Virtual Reality The Verge
2008
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WEARABLE TECH The era when smartphones were the only smart device you carried will surely end
soon. Smart rings, watches, bags, shirts and contact lenses will soon be part of
our daily life.
MEDIA ANALYSIS
INTERESTING READS
Diffusion Status
Attention in Q1 2015
EXPANSION
282
6-month Growth
1/20
+40
3/20
From Smart Watches To Exoskeletons: The
Future Of Wearables NYC Media Lab Notes
Wearables: One-third Of Consumers
Abandoning Devices The Guardian
Meet The Godfather Of Wearables The Verge
2008
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Get in touch at [email protected] if you want to take
a closer look at any of these trends. !
Check the latest development of all the
introduced trends at monitor.12k.co.
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Give us a call on +49 (0)30-715 513 27 or go to
12k.co if you want to know more. We are
looking forward to hearing from you.
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