Technical assistance related to the review of REACH with regard to the extension of the registration requirements for substances manufactured or imported between 1 and 10 tonnes per year (ENV.A.3/SER/2013/0057r) Final Report (updated) on the extension of the registration requirements for substances manufactured or imported between 1 and 10 tonnes per year prepared for DG Environment Original: 27 February 2015 Updated to provide total PV benefits: 17 March 2015 Final Report (updated) on the extension of the registration requirements for substances manufactured or imported between 1 and 10 tonnes per year Quality Assurance Project reference / title J839/ REACH 1 to 10t Phase 2 Report status Final Report (Updated) Author(s) Anthony Footitt (RPA) Marco Camboni (RPA) Jan Smidt (CSES) Approved for issue by Meg Postle Date of issue 17 March 2015 Document Change Record Report Version Date Change details Interim 1 3 June 2014 N/A First Options Paper Expanding on Options 1 22 July 2014 N/A Final Options Paper 2 5 August 2014 Expanding on the first paper and the Interim Report to provide further reasoning behind options Paper on Annex III 1 7 August 2014 Paper specific to Annex III to assist the Commission with its discussion on Annex III interpretation Draft Final – Sections 1 to 3 1 17 October 2014 Drawing previous documents into one document following agreement of options on 29 August 2014 Draft Final Sections 1, 2, 3 and 4.1 to 4.3 2 12 November 2014 Revisions following comments and addition of sections on modelling numbers of substances Draft Final Sections 1, 2, 3 and 4.1 to 4.5 3 25 November 2014 Revisions following comments and addition of sections on modelling of costs Draft Final Sections 1, 2, 3 and 4 4 2 December 2014 Revisions following comments and addition of sections on modelling of costs to companies Draft Final Sections 1, 2, 3 and 4 5 8 December 2014 Revisions and clarifications before submission for circulation to colleagues in other DGs for comment and agreement on variables for full analysis Draft Final Report 6 4 February 2015 Incorporation of calculated costs and benefits after final agreement from the Commission on cost assumptions (received 23 December 2014) Final Report 7 27 February 2015 Adjustment of text in light of comments on the Draft Final Report Final Report (Updated) 8 17 March 2015 Updated to provide estimates of total Present Value (PV) benefits of the options over a 30 year period (to be consistent with the Extended Impact Assessment) Disclaimer The views and propositions expressed herein are, unless otherwise stated, those of Risk & Policy Analysts and do not necessarily represent any official view of DG Environment or any other organisation mentioned in this report. Table of contents Executive Summary 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Study Objectives ................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Structure of the Report.......................................................................................................... 2 2 Current Requirements under REACH for 1-10t Substances ..................................................... 3 2.1 Overview of Requirements .................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Registration Dossier Information Requirements ...................................................................... 4 2.3 Duty to Communicate Information in the Supply Chain.......................................................... 12 2.4 Compliance with Parallel Regulation..................................................................................... 18 3 Development of Options for Refining Information Requirements......................................... 25 3.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................ 25 3.2 Options for Altering Annex III ............................................................................................... 27 3.3 Combining the Annex III and Extended Information Options to a Final Five ............................. 29 4 Summary of Methods used to Analyse Options ................................................................... 32 4.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................ 32 4.2 Number and Nature of Substances ....................................................................................... 34 4.3 Number of Substances Requiring Toxicological and Ecotoxicological Information under the Options ...................................................................................................................................... 36 4.4 Cost of Information Gathering.............................................................................................. 42 4.5 Substance Registration Costs ............................................................................................... 44 4.6 Aggregation of costs using the simulation ............................................................................. 46 5 Cost Estimation .................................................................................................................. 49 5.1 Approach to Estimation ....................................................................................................... 49 5.2 Estimated cost of substance withdrawal ............................................................................... 55 5.3 Estimated costs of registration ............................................................................................. 58 5.4 Total costs of the Options .................................................................................................... 61 6 Business impacts ................................................................................................................ 63 6.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................ 63 6.2 Impact of substance withdrawal on manufacturers and importers (MIs)................................. 63 6.3 Impact of substance withdrawal on downstream users (DUs) ................................................ 73 6.4 Impact of registration on manufacturers and importers (MIs) ................................................ 77 6.5 Impact of registration on downstream users (DUs) ................................................................ 84 7 Benefits .............................................................................................................................. 89 7.1 Numbers of hazardous substances and properties identified ................................................. 89 7.2 Impact of the Options on Damage Costs ............................................................................... 92 8 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 101 8.1 Comparing the Options...................................................................................................... 101 Annex 1 Defining the Annex VII+ and VII++ Options ............................................................. 109 Annex 2 Detailed Description of the Monte Carlo Modelling ................................................ 131 Executive Summary 1. Study Objectives Article 138(3) of REACH identifies that the Commission may present legislative proposals to modify the information requirements for substances registered in the 1-10t band. The Commission has contracted RPA and CSES to provide technical, scientific and policy support in order for it to decide on the appropriateness of proposing changes to the information requirements for these substances and develop its proposal accordingly. 2. Current Requirements for 1-10t substances 2.1 Information required in Registration Dossiers The general information required in technical registration dossiers of substances (on their own and, as mixtures or in articles) is set out in Article 10(a) of REACH. The information to be submitted depending on tonnage is defined in Article 12 of the Regulation in combination with the Annex relevant to the tonnage band; Annex VII in the case of the 1-10t substances. Annex VII is, itself, divided into two types of information: information on physicochemical properties – where this is required for all 1-10t substances; information on toxicological and ecotoxicological properties – where this is only required for certain types of 1-10t substances. In relation to the latter, information on toxicological and ecotoxicological properties in Annex VII is, however, only required for 1-10t ‘priority substances’, where these are substances that meet the criteria in Annex III (as amended) which are: "(a) substances for which it is predicted (i.e. by the application of (Q)SARs or other evidence) that they are likely to meet the criteria for category 1A or 1B classification in the hazard classes carcinogenicity, germ cell mutagenicity or reproductive toxicity or the criteria in Annex XIII; (b) substances: i. with dispersive or diffuse use(s) particularly where such substances are used in consumer mixtures or incorporated into consumer articles; and ii. for which it is predicted (i.e. by application of (Q)SARs or other evidence) that they are likely to meet the classification criteria for any health or environmental hazard classes or differentiations under Regulation (EC) No 1272/2008”. The effect of Article 12 (making reference to Annex III) is that it divides the 1-10t substances into those that: are required only to provide the physico-chemical information in Annex VII (as outlined earlier); and in addition to the physico-chemical information (outlined earlier), are required to provide information on the human health and environmental endpoints according to Annex VII. i 2.2 Control of Hazards and Risks The requirement to conduct a Chemical Safety Assessments (CSAs) does not currently apply to the 110t substances but Article 31 of REACH requires the communication of hazard information to downstream users Safety Data Sheets (SDS). As such, risk management is, at present, to be achieved via classification under Regulation (EC) No 1272/2008 (CLP) which, in turn, triggers risk management requirements under other community regulation including: Worker health and safety regulation; Product safety requirements; Waste regulation; and Regulation that sets limit values and exposure limits. 3. Options for Refining Information Requirements 3.1 Background The overall aim of REACH as a whole is to achieve: a high level of protection of human health and environment; free movement of substances on their own, in mixtures, and in articles; while enhancing competitiveness and innovation. One of the main drivers for the adoption of REACH is the fact that, prior to its adoption, information on the inherent properties needed to manage chemicals safely was not available for a significant percentage of the substances that have historically been placed on the European market (of which more than half – around 20,000 - are expected to be registered in the 1-10t band only). REACH seeks to address these issues and achieve its aims by requiring manufacturers and importers to generate data on the substances they manufacture or import. At the same time, requirements for generation of information on substances under REACH is tiered according to the volumes of manufacture or importation of a substance - higher tonnage substances must generate more information on more hazard endpoints. For substances produced in quantities exceeding 10t per year, all substances must provide the required toxicological and ecotoxicological information. To reduce the possible economic impact on the 1-10t substances, however, REACH identifies that new toxicological and ecotoxicological information should only be required for the “priority substances” that meet the criteria in Annex III. As described above, “priority substances between 1 and 10 tonnes” under REACH are “substances for which it is predicted (i.e. by the application of (Q)SARs or other evidence) that they are likely to meet the criteria for”: classification as C, M or R 1A/1B or PBT/vPvB; or any health or environmental hazard classes or differentiations under CLP and have a dispersive or diffuse use. In respect of achieving the overarching aims of REACH the successfulness (or otherwise) of the current strategy in relation to the 1-10t substances is highly dependent on the extent to which hazardous properties will be correctly “predicted by the application of (Q)SARs or other evidence”. ii This applies to both the identification of priority substances and also to the overarching objective of reducing the possible (cost) impact on low volume substances. This is because: For the identification of priority substances: the successfulness of the strategy depends on the extent to which QSARS or other evidence are able to correctly identify substances that do have (as yet unknown) hazardous properties – any substances which are not correctly identified as priority 1-10t substances will not have to provide the Annex VII toxicological and ecotoxicological information (and their hazardous properties will not be identified and risks managed); and For reducing the possible economic impact on low volume substances: the successfulness of the strategy depends on the extent to which QSARS or other evidence are able to correctly identify substances that do not have hazardous properties – those substances that are incorrectly identified as priority 1-10t substances would have to incur the costs of providing Annex VII toxicological and ecotoxicological information despite the fact that no hazardous properties would be identified by undertaking the testing (because there are none). 3.2 Annex III Options As no prediction by QSARs or other evidence is 100% accurate in its predictions, the study has attempted to examine the likely successfulness of the current strategy and, within this, consider the impact of adjustments to the criteria in Annex III and the impact of removing the Annex (and its criteria). The options considered in relation to Annex III are: 3.3 Do nothing- the baseline; Remove the diffuse/dispersive use criterion in Annex III – which would result in all 1-10t substances identified by QSARs or other information to have any human health or environmental classification to provide toxicological and ecotoxicological information (as opposed to only those with dispersive/diffuse uses); and Remove all criteria in Annex III – i.e. require all 1-10t substances to provide toxicological and ecotoxicological information. Information Options In addition to examining the impact of alterations to Annex III (including its removal), the study has also examined: the nature of the toxicological and ecotoxicological information required under Annex VII; the usefulness of that information; and whether any refinements could be made which would further enhance the benefits in terms of the identification and hazardous properties and implementation of suitable controls (within acceptable cost boundaries). The development of options for refining the toxicological and ecotoxicological information in Annex VII has focussed on the merits of including human health and environmental endpoints that currently apply to 10-100t substances under Annex VIII. When selecting endpoints from Annex VIII, the overarching consideration has been the opportunities that the additional information might provide for enhanced risk management. A key consideration here has been that, as described above, a CSA is not required for 1-10t substances and a number of iii the information in Annex VIII are present specifically to provide the enhanced information required to perform a CSA. As well as considering the merits of additional information from inclusion of Annex VIII endpoints, we have also considered alterations to the use of information that already forms a part of Annex VII. This applies only to information that must already be gathered and could, in principle, be used to screen for PBT/vPvB properties. The following options for extending information requirements based on the inclusion of selected Annex VIII endpoints have been developed: 3.4 Annex VII (the baseline): Current Annex VII toxicological and ecotoxicological information; Annex VII+: Current Annex VII toxicological and ecotoxicological information plus endpoints and requirements selected from Annex VIII to deliver additional classifications and information with the smallest possible likely increase in cost; Annex VII++: As Annex VII+ above but with the addition of certain key elements/changes from Annex VIII that may deliver further benefits in terms of identification of hazardous properties and substances with hazardous properties but would represent a more significant increase in costs. Combined Options The study specification limited consideration to a maximum of five options for full assessment of costs and benefits. Options for refining the information requirements in Annex VII have been developed and assessed in combination with those for Annex III to provide the five overall options required. Table 1 identifies which combinations of Annex III and Information Options were selected for further analysis of costs and benefits (by agreement with the Commission). Table 1: Final Combinations of Options to Progress to Full Impact Assessment Annex III Options Information Options Current Annex VII Annex VII+ Do nothing Baseline No Remove diffuse/dispersive use criterion Yes Yes Remove all criteria Yes Yes 4. Annex VII++ No Yes No Approach to the analysis of options An Excel® based model and simulation has been developed to analyse and explore the options and the baseline (current requirements) in terms of the following five key performance measures: 1. the number of substances with hazardous properties detected; 2. the usefulness of the information generated on these substances in the context of the regulation of risks and risk management; 3. the cost of registering the 1-10t substances (including the generation of information); 4. the likely impact of registration costs at a company level considering that companies will be registering several substances (a portfolio) sometimes as part of a joint (consortium) registration and sometimes as an individual registration; and 5. considering the above, to the extent possible, the likely impacts on competition and innovation. iv As with previous ex-ante studies on REACH (such as the various Business Impact Assessments – BIAs and studies on REACH benefits), the model and analysis must make predictions on the outcomes based on the best available information of what the outcomes are likely to be (rather than what they certainly are). For those registrations yet to be completed (including the 1-10t substances), there is no certain knowledge on the outcome. It is this paucity of information that REACH itself seeks to address. There is also no certain knowledge on other factors including: The exact number of 1-10t substances; The exact number of substances that will be identified by QSARs and other evidence as priority substances (correctly or incorrectly) and will be required to generate toxicological and ecotoxicological information; The exact cost of generating the necessary toxicological and ecotoxicological information for those substances; The exact cost of producing registration dossiers for 1-10t substances; The exact number of companies that will be registering one or more substances in the 1-10t band and the size of those companies (micro, small, medium and large); and The exact number of registrants for each substance and the cost sharing arrangements that will be made between the companies registering (where there is more than one manufacturer/importer). In order to provide an analysis, then, the modelling and simulation must rely on informed prediction of factors including the above to provide a best estimate of the five performance measures for each option and the baseline. The outputs of the model are, then, sensitive to the input values used. However, where previous assessments (such as the BIAs) sought to predict the total costs of the regulation as a whole, the analysis of options for the 1-10t substances is focussed on the differences between the options (and the baseline) in terms of costs and benefits. This makes the current analysis far less sensitive to the underlying inputs and assumptions on the factors described above because the same assumptions apply across all of the options including the baseline. Here, of the factors described above, only two differ from one option to the next. These are: the number of substances that will be required to generate the toxicological and ecotoxicological information required under the option; and the additional cost of any further information required under an information option. With regard to the number of substances required to generate the toxicological and ecotoxicological information under the options, the effectiveness (or otherwise) of “QSARs or other information” in relation to the identification of substances meeting the criteria in Annex III is of prime importance. It is important to note that Annex III does not specify in detail what is required in relation to these and other tools. This issue was highlighted early in the study’s timeframe and both the Commission and ECHA have agreed that the requirements of Annex III probably need to be specified in more detail to ensure that the prioritisation process achieves what is intended (to the extent possible given the technical limitations of the tools available). The Commission and ECHA agreed to provide guidance to 1 - 10 t registrants on this issue in 2015. v For the purposes of the analysis (and the model), based on a review of the work undertaken in 2006 by RPA for DG Enterprise1 and also in view of the current wording of Annex III, the following interpretation has been applied: 1. Screening Tools are used (without expert judgement): Annex III is applied by all manufacturers and importers based on existing data and QSAR-screening and similar ‘quick scans’ without the use of expert judgement2. There are many freely available tools that might be used for this purpose with the main tools currently available being the Analog Identification Methodology (AIM), Danish (Q)SAR database, Toxmatch, and the OECD QSAR Toolbox. Manufacturers and importers would obtain one or more such tools and apply them in-house or commission a QSAR consultancy to obtain results from similar/the same QSAR tools; 2. A positive decision rule applies: to be identified as a priority 1-10t substance, there must be positive evidence of hazardous properties; and 3. Absence of evidence equates to absence of effects: By extension of the above, the absence of evidence is taken as absence of effects3. This includes cases/substances where there is no existing test information and no prediction by QSARs (or other approaches) can be made (for example, because a substance is out of the ‘domain’ of a QSAR model). The latter substances would not be 1-10t priority substances (and no new toxicological or ecotoxicological information would be generated under REACH). For the benefit of transparency, all of the assumptions and numbers underlying the modelling and simulation are described in detail in Annex 2 of this report. These were supplied to (and agreed by) the Commission in advance so that the subsequent analysis could be based on an agreed set of numbers and assumptions. 1 As part of the Technical Assistance for REACH Impact Assessment Updates focussing on the then (2005) Common Position Text and also the Recommendation for the Second Reading (Sacconi, (2006 : ***II Recommendation for Second Reading, Session document of the European Parliament, Final A6-0352/2006, dated 13.10.2006). 2 The alternative would be robust QSARs of the sort described in Annex XI 1.3. Such QSARs would be expensive to apply owing, in part, to the need for expert judgement. According to ECHA representatives (pers comm, 2014) this makes such QSARs potentially as costly or more costly to apply than undertaking the equivalent in vitro test. This would not be consistent with the objective of Article 12 and Annex III to reduce the burden on low volume substance manufacturers. However, without expert judgement there is significant risk that the screening will not return reliable results. 3 The absence of evidence of effects is not generally otherwise accepted as evidence of absence of effects. See for example Danish experience on regulatory use of QSARs https://echa.europa.eu/documents/10162/13639/qsarws_wedebye_tule_en.pdf vi 5. Assessment of costs and business impacts 5.1 Cost and cost estimation At the most basic level, the economic costs of the options (and the baseline) comprise: The cost of registering substances under REACH; and Where the cost of registering certain substances is unsupportable on the grounds of financial cost (and/or its properties render it unsuitable for continued use), the cost of withdrawing those substances from the market. Two major groups of operators will incur such costs: Manufacturers and Importers (MIs); and Downstream Users (DUs). Costs have been considered in terms of: MI direct costs of registration –the costs of registering substances will be incurred initially by MIs registering those substances. A proportion of these costs will be absorbed by the MIs themselves (representing the MI costs of registration) and a proportion will be passed down the supply chain (to downstream users) as, for example, an increase in product price; DU indirect costs of registration: linked to the above, DUs will incur an increase in costs that is proportional to the cost of registration not absorbed by the MIs themselves; MI costs of withdrawal: where a substance is not registered and is withdrawn from the market MIs will lose any profit that would otherwise have been made in the absence of the Regulation; and DU costs of withdrawal: where a substance is not registered and is withdrawn from the market by MIs, DUs will incur costs associated with the need to reformulate or otherwise adjust their business to cope with the withdrawal. These costs would not be incurred in the absence of the Regulation. Using a probabilistic approach, the model developed in this study produces estimates of the costs for each of the individual companies manufacturing/importing each substance. The raw data produced by the modelled simulation thus allows analysis of costs at individual company level and/or at the level of a substance. The simulation also permits detailed analysis of costs and impacts by, for example, size of enterprise. This, in turn, provides enhanced information for the assessment of less quantifiable impacts such as competition and innovation as part of an analysis of business impacts. The total costs of registering the (estimated 20,000) 1-10t substances are summarised in Table 2 for the baseline and each option. All costs are assumed to be incurred over the four year period between 2015 and the registration deadline (2018) and are reported as Present Values (PV) discounted at 4%. The estimates include the division of total costs between MIs and DUs. vii Table 2: Summary and total costs of the options (all values expressed as Present Values discounted at 4%) Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII - Annex VII+ Annex VII+ Annex No No Annex - No - No Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ Dispersive Dispersive Dispersive Use Use Use Criterion in Criterion in Criterion in Annex III Annex III Annex III Costs of Withdrawal MI costs of withdrawal (income foregone) € 31.5 € 49.4 € 80.5 € 51.2 € 83.8 € 152.3 (€millions) DU costs of withdrawal (maximum € 81.0 € 126.9 € 203.5 € 134.7 € 217.0 € 436.6 reformulation cost) (€millions) Registration costs MI costs of registration € 206.4 € 258.7 € 346.7 € 263.9 € 356.0 € 323.7 (€ millions) DU costs of registration € 206.4 € 258.7 € 346.7 € 263.9 € 356.0 € 323.7 (€ millions) Total Costs Total Costs to MIs € 237.9 € 308.1 € 427.2 € 315.1 € 439.8 € 476.0 (€millions) Total costs to DUs € 287.4 € 385.7 € 550.2 € 398.7 € 573.0 € 760.3 (€millions) Total costs (€ millions) € 525.2 € 693.8 € 977.4 € 713.8 € 1,012.8 € 1,236.3 5.2 Business impacts 5.2.1 Impact of substance withdrawal on manufacturers and importers (MIs) Number of MIs impacted by withdrawal Table 3 provides data on the number of MI companies withdrawing one or more substances from their portfolios and the same numbers expressed as a percentage of the total number of companies in the appropriate size category. Table 3: Number of MI Companies impacted by withdrawal Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII - Annex VII+ No No Annex - No Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ Dispersive Dispersive Use Use Criterion in Criterion in Annex III Annex III Percentage of total companies in size category Micro companies 11.1% 16.4% 25.6% 16.8% Small Companies 14.0% 21.7% 33.5% 22.6% Medium Companies 25.3% 36.6% 52.2% 38.5% Large Companies 64.5% 82.5% 89.3% 84.0% Total 14.6% 21.3% 31.6% 22.0% viii Annex VII+ - No Annex III Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III 26.4% 34.9% 55.2% 91.0% 32.7% 41.4% 52.3% 74.9% 100.0% 48.4% Levels of production withdrawn by MIs The estimated average percentage of annual production withdrawn by companies that withdraw one or more substances is provided in Table 4. Table 4: Average percentage of annual production withdrawn by affected companies Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII - Annex VII+ Annex VII+ Annex No No Annex - No - No Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ Dispersive Dispersive Dispersive Use Use Use Criterion in Criterion in Criterion in Annex III Annex III Annex III Average percentage of annual production tonnage withdrawn by affected companies Micro companies 23% 24% 25% 24% 26% 27% Small Companies 17% 18% 20% 18% 20% 22% Medium Companies 10% 12% 13% 12% 13% 16% Large Companies 4% 5% 7% 6% 8% 15% Total 17% 18% 21% 19% 21% 24% Annual Income foregone by MIs owing to withdrawal In terms of the financial impact of withdrawal on these companies, Table 5 provides the total annual income foregone by companies of different sizes and the average annual income foregone per company by size. Table 5: Annual Income foregone owing to withdrawal Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII - Annex VII+ Annex VII+ No No Annex - No - No Annex Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ III Dispersive Dispersive Use Use Criterion in Criterion in Annex III Annex III Average annual income foregone per company (€ thousand) Micro companies € 3.8 € 4.0 € 4.2 € 3.9 € 4.2 Small Companies € 4.0 € 4.1 € 4.5 € 4.1 € 4.5 Medium Companies € 4.4 € 4.8 € 5.5 € 4.8 € 5.4 Large Companies € 6.6 € 8.4 € 11.7 € 8.9 € 12.3 Overall € 4.3 € 4.7 € 5.1 € 4.7 € 5.2 Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III € 4.6 € 5.1 € 6.8 € 25.0 € 6.4 5.2.2 Impact of substance withdrawal on downstream users (DUs) In terms of the impacts on individual downstream users, little is known about the numbers of downstream users other than, despite the low tonnages involved, there may be several on average, each using low volumes of the substances. Estimates have been made on the cost of each option to individual downstream users. This suggests that average costs per DU are fairly similar across the options ranging between €827 and €963 per substance per DU under the options and €850 under the baseline. The more significant factor governing the costs of the options and the baseline is the number of substances withdrawn (and hence number of products that will need to be re-formulated). As there may be more than one ix withdrawn substance in each DU product for re-formulation, however, it cannot be assumed that each substance withdrawn equals one product reformulated. I.e. there will be some overlap but the extent of this overlap is not known. 5.2.3 Impact of registration on manufacturers and importers (MIs) Table 6 provides the average cost of substance registration for companies of each size category. These costs are averaged out across all of the substances in the portfolios of each of the companies registering in the simulation and so provide information on the magnitude of costs absorbed for every substance registered. Table 6: Average costs of substance registration for MIs Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII - Annex VII+ Annex VII+ Annex No No Annex - No - No Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ Dispersive Dispersive Dispersive Use Use Use Criterion in Criterion in Criterion in Annex III Annex III Annex III Average cost of registering a substance (across all substances in company portfolios) Micro companies € 2,370 € 3,104 € 4,418 € 3,174 € 4,541 € 4,142 Small Companies € 2,450 € 3,154 € 4,407 € 3,224 € 4,536 € 4,172 Medium Companies € 2,596 € 3,280 € 4,396 € 3,342 € 4,511 € 4,337 Large Companies € 2,230 € 2,568 € 3,184 € 2,630 € 3,319 € 3,951 Total € 2,401 € 3,112 € 4,374 € 3,181 € 4,499 € 4,159 5.2.4 Impact of registration on downstream users (DUs) In terms of the impacts of registration costs on individual DUs through price rises, little is known about the numbers of downstream users other than, despite the low tonnages involved, there may be several on average, each using low volumes of the substances. An estimate has been made on the cost of each option to individual downstream users. This suggests that average price increases per substance per DU are fairly low and are similar across the options ranging between €73 and €100 per substance per DU under the options and €57 under the baseline. x 6. Benefits 6.1 Numbers of hazardous substances and properties identified The five options aim to generate more and better information in particular on: Carcinogenicity, mutagenicity and reprotoxicity; Dermal, inhalation and/or oral toxicity; Long term toxicity; Aquatic toxicity; and Persistence, bioaccumulation and toxicity. In some cases, better information on short term toxicity, long term toxicity and aquatic toxicity will lead to the identification of: Substances for which there is better information on dermal/inhalation exposure limits; Substances identified with classification from STOT RE 1 or 2; and Number of aquatic toxic substances with enough information for PNEC where applicable. Figure 1 presents the number of substances with the above hazard category classifications identified under the options and the total costs for each option. 6.2 Impact of the Options on Damage Costs 6.2.1 Approach A full economic analysis of the economic benefits of identifying additional substances and hazardous properties would require exposure-response functions for each chemical substance and for each human health and environmental effect. In addition, information on the population/area exposed would also be required to enable the prediction of economic value of damages avoided. To be strictly rigorous, such an analysis would also require consideration of the distribution of the benefits over time and selection of an appropriate discount rate. xi Figure 1: Total costs (€ million) and number of substances identified per hazard categories xii As detailed information of this kind does not currently exist, as with the Commission’s 2003 Extended Impact Assessment, an illustrative benefits approach must be employed to explore the benefits of the options and, therein, the relative performance of the options (and the baseline). In overview, this approach has involved: considering how many hazardous substances with different properties for classification are identified under the options and under the baseline (as in Figure 1); considering the nature of disorders, diseases and impacts associated with substances with such classifications; identifying an appropriate economic metric for a single case avoided or unit of environmental area improved for each type of substance classification identified (in €s); applying conservative assumptions concerning the numbers of cases avoided/environmental area improved per substance classification identified over a 30 year period following registration4; and combining the above to calculate conservative illustrative benefits (in €s) for each of the options, the baseline and also the total human health and environmental damages that could be avoided if all hazardous substances were identified. The latter can be calculated by considering the total number of hazardous substances/properties that are (as yet) unidentified. 6.2.2 Costs versus Damage costs avoided Table 7 provides the total costs, benefits and benefit:cost ratios for all options for changing information requirements. The table also provides a verbal summary of the changes as well as information on: the residual damage costs under the option/baseline – which is simply the avoidable damage costs less the damage costs avoided under the option/baseline from the total; and impact on avoidable damage costs – which is simply the damage costs avoided under the option/baseline expressed as a percentage of the total avoidable damage costs. Benefit to Cost Ratios Benefit:cost ratios provide an indication of the performance of an option in economic terms. Where the ratio is greater than one the benefits (in terms of damage costs avoided) outweigh the financial costs (meaning that the action is justified in economic terms). The larger the benefit:cost ratio, the more justifiable the option is in economic terms. The benefits in this case are expressed in terms of damage costs avoided and are calculated on the basis of the avoidance of one incidence of ‘disease’ per year per substance identified with a human health classification and improvement in 1km of waterbody for every substance identified with a classification for aquatic toxicity5. Comparison of the benefit:cost ratios with recent information on 4 Where 30 years is consistent with the illustrative benefits approach used in the Commissions Extended Impact Assessment of 2003. 5 Note: not one per year xiii the costs and benefits of environmental regulation (Defra 20156) suggests that the metric applied to calculate the benefits provides a reasonable approximation of reality (even if perhaps an underestimate of the true benefits). Throughout the whole estimation of costs and benefits, the same data and assumptions have been applied equally across all of the options and the baseline. Thus, whilst benefit:cost ratios for each option would be different with different assumptions for the number of health/environment cases avoided, the relative performance of each option is unlikely to change significantly (any changes would affect the benefit:cost ratios equally). Examination of the benefit:cost ratios provided in Table 8 leads to a number of observations: despite the large variation in the magnitude of costs, the benefit:cost ratios suggest that all options are justified in economic terms – in other words, for all options the value of the benefits (expressed in €s) significantly exceeds the costs; the current requirements perform very slightly better than the other options, providing (at least) €10.02 of benefits for every €1.00 of cost. However, this is only €0.57 more than the benefits from the next best performing option in economic terms (the increased Annex VII+ information combined with removal of the diffuse/dispersive use criterion in Annex III); the ‘worst’ performing options include those where the current Annex VII requirements are retained. Again, however, these perform only slightly worse than the baseline; and the variation between benefit:cost ratios is relatively very small. As such no option performs significantly better or significantly worse than another option (including the baseline). On the basis of these observations, no firm conclusions can be drawn concerning the ‘best’ option in economic terms. In short, within the scope of the options considered, an increase in cost provides a roughly proportionate increase in benefit in terms of damage costs avoided. There is no significant difference between the options in terms of benefit:cost ratios (particularly considering the uncertainties inherent in the estimation of both costs and benefits). 6 Defra (2015): Emerging Findings from Defra’s Regulation Assessment - First update covering 2012 see https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-costs-and-benefits-of-defra-s-regulations xiv Table 7: Summary table of the PV Costs and Benefits of the Options and Impact on Avoidable Damage Costs Changes brought about under different options for information requirements Current Annex III Current Ann. VII Current Ann. VII Removal of the diffuse/dispersive use criterion in Annex III Ann. VII+ Information Ann. VII++ Information Current Ann. VII Removal of Annex III Ann. VII+ Information There are no changes to the information in Annex VII and Annex III remains the same There are no changes in the information required in Annex VII but changes to Annex III act to increase the number of substances required to submit full tox and ecotox information There are slight increases in the tox and ecotox information in Annex VII and changes to Annex III act to increase the number of substances required to submit that tox and ecotox information There are more significant increases in the tox and ecotox information in Annex VII and changes to Annex III act to increase the number of substances required to submit that tox and ecotox information There are no changes in the information required in Annex VII but removing Annex III means that all substances are required to submit full tox and ecotox information There are slight increases in the tox and ecotox information in Annex VII but removing Annex III means that all substances are required to submit full tox and ecotox information. Cost (€m) Benefit (€m) B/C ratio Rank B/C ratio Residual damages (€m) Percentage of total damage costs avoided Rank Impact on damage costs € 525.2 € 5,263 10.02 1 € 11,962 31% 6 € 693.8 € 6,312 9.10 4 € 10,913 37% 5 € 713.8 € 6,673 9.35 3 € 10,552 39% 4 € 1,236.3 € 11,685 9.45 2 € 5,540 68% 1 € 977.4 € 8,559 8.76 6 € 8,666 50% 3 € 1,012.8 € 9,041 8.93 5 € 8,184 52% 2 xv Impact on damage costs Whilst comparison of benefit:cost ratios does not reveal any clear differences between the options or the baseline, comparison of the PV damage costs avoided for each option with the total PV avoidable damage costs (€17,225 million) reveals significant differences between the options. if economic performance (in terms of benefits versus costs) and impact on damage costs were the only factors to consider in selecting the appropriate option, the rank order of preference would be that dictated by the level of impact on the total damage costs in Table 8 below. 8.2: Impact of options on total avoidable damage costs Rank Option Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III Annex VII+ - No Annex III 1 2 3 Annex VII - No Annex III Annex VII+ - No Diffuse/ Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III Annex VII - No Diffuse/ Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III Baseline 4 5 6 Cost (€m PV) Damage Costs Avoided (€m PV) Impact on avoidable damage costs (% of total damage costs avoided) Residual damages (€m PV) € 1,236.3 € 11,685.0 68% € 5,540.0 € 1,012.8 € 9,040.8 52% € 8,184.2 € 977.4 € 8,558.6 50% € 8,666.3 € 713.8 € 6,673.1 39% € 10,551.8 € 693.8 € 6,312.2 37% € 10,912.8 € 525.2 € 5,262.7 31% € 11,962.2 6.2.3 Impacts on competition and innovation Impact on damage costs is not, however, the only deciding factor when selecting the most appropriate option in terms of the combination of Annex III requirements and toxicological and ecotoxicological information for 1-10t substances. Perhaps unfortunately, the decision is more complicated because which option is ‘best’ depends on: what level of residual damages are ‘acceptable’? what level of burden on the chemical industry is sustainable? Neither of these can be robustly quantified and both, to a greater or lesser extent, will vary depending on who is asked. Whilst further consideration of these issues can be informed by the quantitative and qualitative information on business impacts (such as that provided in Section 6), it is not possible to make any firm conclusions on the acceptability or sustainability of the options. This means that the study can make no firm conclusions or recommendations on which option is ‘best’ or most appropriate and the final decision on which option should be adopted must be made by other means (considering the information provided on business impacts). Section 6 of the main report provides detailed information on business impacts of the options including on innovation and competitiveness. In terms of competitiveness, the general conclusions that can be drawn are that all the options considered increase registration costs and lead to withdrawal levels above the baseline position. The impact of higher costs on company competitiveness and survival will vary significantly depending on the sub-sectors in question. xvi As costs of the different options increase, it is also probable that impacts on the competitiveness of smaller firms will be more negatively affected than larger ones. This is due to the probability that smaller firms are more dependent on low volume substances than their large counterparts, and also because they tend to have fewer resources available to adjust to changes in competitiveness brought about by changes in legislation and especially those leading to higher cost levels. As regards innovation, the consequences of moving towards higher information and higher cost options in these low volume substances are somewhat more indeterminate. The extent to which businesses will invest in various approaches depends on cost/ profits/ risk calculations. These vary by the innovations in question (e.g. reformulation with an existing substance/ developing a new substance/ changing the product so that the substance is no longer needed), the size of the market in question and the value of the relevant substances, and risks, which in the present economic environment in the EU are quite high and would discourage innovation unless outcomes are quite high and certain. Again, higher value added substances would tend to be able to justify more expensive innovation costs, and larger firms would be more likely to dispose over the required resources if innovation was the option decided upon. 6.2.4 The missing option Anticipating that there will be further deliberations within the Commission concerning which option is most appropriate, it seems inevitable that there will be a question as to the merits of a sixth option. This would entail maintaining the current Annex III requirements (as in the baseline) but increasing the toxicological and ecotoxicological information requirements slightly to match those of the Annex VII+ option. The specification for this study limited consideration to the five options and the baseline (as presented throughout the report) and so this option has not been examined in detail. However, using data from the other options it is estimated that extending Annex VII information requirements to match the Annex VII+ information requirements would increase costs by around 3% and benefits by around 6%. The estimated costs and benefits of this missing option are provided in Table 9. Table 9: Estimated PV costs and benefits of increasing only the information requirements Cost (€m) Benefit (€m) Residual B/C Impact (% of total damages ratio damage costs (€m) avoided) Current Annex III and Annex VII information requirements (the € 525.20 € 5,262.7 € 11,962.2 10.02 31% baseline) Current Annex III and extended Annex VII+ information € 540.34 € 5,563.6 € 11,661.3 10.30 32% requirements Comparison of the benefits and costs of this missing option with the baseline suggest a slightly higher benefit:cost ratio (10.3) compared with the baseline (10.02) making it the only option likely to perform better than the baseline in purely economic efficiency terms. However, this is only very slightly better and the difference between this missing option and the baseline (or the other options) cannot be considered significant. xvii In other words, extending the information requirements in Annex VII slightly (to match the Annex VII+ option) but leaving the Annex III requirements as at present would deliver an estimated minimum additional benefit of €301 million compared with the baseline. This would cost an estimated additional €15.1 million across all 20,000 1-10t substances (an increase in costs of around €757 or 3% per substance on average) compared with the baseline. This is equivalent to an average increase in costs per MI of €172 per substance. When compared with the baseline (current requirements) the impacts on innovation and competitiveness of this option are likely to be so small as to be indistinguishable from the baseline but the benefits may be significant. Reproducing and updating Table 7, Table 10 provides a summary table for all options including the ‘missing’ option. xviii Table 10: Summary table of the PV Costs and Benefits of the Options and Impact on Avoidable Damage Costs Changes brought about under different options for information requirements Current Ann. VII Current Annex III Ann. VII+ Information* Current Ann. VII Removal of the diffuse/dispersive use criterion in Annex III Ann. VII+ Information Ann. VII++ Information Current Ann. VII Removal of Annex III Ann. VII+ Information There are no changes to the information in Annex VII and Annex III remains the same There are slight increases in the tox and ecotox information in Annex VII and no changes to Annex III There are no changes in the information required in Annex VII but changes to Annex III act to increase the number of substances required to submit full tox and ecotox information There are slight increases in the tox and ecotox information in Annex VII and changes to Annex III act to increase the number of substances required to submit that tox and ecotox information There are more significant increases in the tox and ecotox information in Annex VII and changes to Annex III act to increase the number of substances required to submit that tox and ecotox information There are no changes in the information required in Annex VII but removing Annex III means that all substances are required to submit full tox and ecotox information There are slight increases in the tox and ecotox information in Annex VII but removing Annex III means that all substances are required to submit full tox and ecotox information. Cost (€m) Benefit (€m) B/C ratio Rank B/C ratio Residual damages (€m) Percentage of total damage costs avoided Rank Impact on damage costs € 525.2 € 5,263 10.02 2 € 11,962 31% 7 € 540.3 € 5,564 10.30 1 € 11,661 32% 6 € 693.8 € 6,312 9.10 5 € 10,913 37% 5 € 713.8 € 6,673 9.35 4 € 10,552 39% 4 € 1,236.3 € 11,685 9.45 3 € 5,540 68% 1 € 977.4 € 8,559 8.76 7 € 8,666 50% 3 € 1,012.8 € 9,041 8.93 6 € 8,184 52% 2 *Imputed values xix xx 1 Introduction 1.1 Study Objectives Regulation (EC) No. 1907/2006 concerning the Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH) came into force on 1 June 2007. REACH aims to provide a high level of protection of human health and the environment, while at the same time enhancing the competitiveness and innovative capability of the EU industry. Furthermore, REACH aims to ensure the free movement of substances and the promotion of the development of alternative methods for the assessment of hazards of substances (Article 1). Registration under REACH is staged over three phases with the timescales for registration dependent upon the quantities of substances manufactured or imported. The final phase-in registration deadline will be 1 June 2018 for substances manufactured or imported in quantities starting at 1 tonne but less than 10 tonnes per year per manufacturer or importer (1 to 10 tonne substances) and also for substances manufactured or imported in quantities of 10-100 tonnes per year. In relation to the 1-10t substances, Article 138(3) of REACH identifies that the Commission may present legislative proposals to modify the information requirements for substances registered in the 1-10t band (see Box 1.1). The Commission has contracted RPA and CSES to provide technical, scientific and policy support in order for it to decide on the appropriateness of proposing changes to the information requirements for these substances and develop its proposal accordingly. Box 1.1: REACH Article 138(3) on Modifying Information Requirements Article 138(3) “The report, referred to in Article 117(4), on the experience acquired with the operation of this Regulation shall include a review of the requirements relating to registration of substances manufactured or imported only in quantities starting at 1 tonne but less than 10 tonnes per year per manufacturer or importer. On the basis of that review, the Commission may present legislative proposals to modify the information requirements for substances manufactured or imported in quantities of 1 tonne or more up to 10 tonnes per year per manufacturer or importer, taking into account the latest development, for example in relation to alternative testing and (quantitative) structure-activity relationships ((Q)SARs).” The specific study objectives can be summarised as to: provide the Commission with a solid basis to report on this issue and to envisage any (legislative) proposal; identify, refine and analyse a more limited number of options [than the Phase 1 study conducted by RPA on this topic] for an extension of the current information requirements. These should be refined and further assessed with the primary objective of allowing the identification of hazardous substances for the purpose of ensuring proper risk management; and provide the Commission with sufficient information on the impact on innovation and competitiveness of a proposal for changes in the information requirements for substances produced in low tonnages. REACH 1 to 10 t Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 1 1.2 Structure of the Report Section 2 provides an overview of the current requirements under REACH in relation to the 1-10t substances considering information to be submitted in registration dossiers, duties to communicate information in the supply chain and compliance with parallel regulation. Section 3 discusses the options available for increasing information requirements, setting out five options for further analysis (with detailed reasoning provided as Annex 1). Section 4 describes the development of the modelling and simulation approach which has been applied to analyse the relative costs and benefits of the options and the effect on companies’ registration costs. For the benefit of transparency, the approach, data and use of data at each point has been described in full in Annex 2. Sections 5, 6 and 7 present the costs, business impacts and benefits of options. Section 8 provides conclusions on the basis of costs and benefits and impact on damage costs. REACH 1 to 10 t Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 2 2 Current Requirements under REACH for 1-10t Substances 2.1 Overview of Requirements This section briefly sets out the current requirements in relation to the registration of 1-10t substances under REACH. The term substances here refers to substances used on their own or in mixtures (as defined in Article 3 of REACH) and also in articles where the substance is used in quantities of 1 tonne or more and the substance is intended to be released under normal or reasonably foreseeable conditions of use7. The general information requirements for 1-10t substances are established in Articles 10 and 12 of REACH. These establish what information must be provided in the registration dossier. Article 31 of REACH also requires the supplier of a substance or a mixture to provide the recipient with a safety data sheet (SDS) compiled in accordance with the detailed requirements in Annex II. The SDS must reflect any new or updated classifications (or any other information of relevance) that are the result of gathering the information required under Articles 10 and 11. For the 1-10t substances, the SDSs are the key means by which appropriate risk controls are communicated to downstream users and others. Here, any changes in the classification of a substance in accordance with the Classification, Labelling and Packaging (CLP) Regulation (EC) No 1272/2008, will be reflected in the Classification and Labelling Inventory (CLI) as well as in the SDS supplied to downstream users and others. Certain changes in classification then trigger actions on the part of manufacturers, importers and downstream to implement risk controls to comply with other pieces of community regulation. It should be noted that the mechanism for identifying, communicating and controlling hazards and risks for the 1-10t substances differs from that applied to substances registered in quantities exceeding 10t per year. For the latter, the identification of risks and adequate risk control for each use of a substance is achieved by undertaking a Chemical Safety Assessment (CSA). CSA involves environmental and human health hazard assessment, PBT/vPvB assessment and, for certain classifications, an exposure assessment and risk characterisation for each use leading to the derivation of recommended risk management measures. This is all summarised in a Chemical Safety report (CSR) and, as well as changes in classification, is communicated to downstream users by means of extended Safety Data Sheets (eSDS) which include the relevant exposure scenario drawn 7 In relation to the latter (substances in articles >1t intended to be released), these uses can be considered alongside substances used on their own and in mixtures because, under Article 7 of REACH, manufacturers and importers of such articles would have to complete a registration for the substance and its use if the use in the articles is not already registered. Here, the registration and the information requirements in relation to quantities manufactured or imported per producer are identical to those for the equivalent substance (on its own or part of a mixture) because Article 12(3) identifies that the Article “shall apply to producers of articles adapted as necessary”. As such, one way or the other, the use of substances in articles where the substance is used in quantities of 1 tonne or more and the substance is intended to be released under normal or reasonably foreseeable conditions of use must be registered. REACH 1 to 10 t Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 3 from the Chemical Safety Report (CSR) as an appendix to the eSDS. As noted, this CSA process does not apply to the 1-10t substances8. The following sub-sections set out requirements for 1-10t substances considering: Registration dossier requirements; and Communication of information in the supply chain; and Compliance with parallel regulation triggered by the REACH registration process. 2.2 Registration Dossier Information Requirements 2.2.1 Article 10 - Information Submitted for General Registration Purposes The general information required in technical registration dossiers of substances (on their own and, as mixtures or in articles) is set out in Article 10(a) of REACH. This identifies eleven information elements (i to xi) that all technical dossiers “shall include”, where the exact requirements in relation to each are expanded upon in Annex VI. Article 10(a) points (i) and (ii) simply set out information on the identity of the manufacturer or importer and that of the substance. Article 10(a) points (iii), (iv), (v) and (x) set out requirements in relation to information manufacture and uses; classification and labelling; guidance on safe use; and exposure information required for substances manufactured in quantities of 1-10t. These points, and the more detailed information on requirements set out in Annex VI, are summarised in Table 2.1. Table 2.1: Annex VI information Requirements Article 10(a) Annex VI (iii) information on the 3.1. Overall manufacture, quantities used for production of an article that manufacture and use(s) of the is subject to registration, and/or imports in tonnes per registrant per year substance as specified in section in: the calendar year of the registration (estimated quantity) 3 of Annex VI; this information 3.2. In the case of a manufacturer or producer of articles: brief description shall represent all the registrant's of the technological process used in manufacture or production of articles. identified use(s). This Precise details of the process, particularly those of a commercially information may include, if the sensitive nature, are not required. registrant deems appropriate, 3.3. An indication of the tonnage used for his own use(s) the relevant use and exposure 3.4. Form (substance, mixture or article) and/or physical state under which categories; the substance is made available to downstream users. Concentration or concentration range of the substance in mixtures made available to downstream users and quantities of the substance in articles made available to downstream users. 3.5. Brief general description of the identified use(s) 3.6. Information on waste quantities and composition of waste resulting from manufacture of the substance, the use in articles and identified uses 3.7. Uses advised against (see Section 1 of the safety data sheet) Where applicable, an indication of the uses which the registrant advises 8 Although the extension of the requirements to substances classified as C, M or R 1A or 1B is being reviewed by the Commission based on Art. 138(1). REACH 1 to 10 t Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 4 against and why (i.e. non-statutory recommendations by supplier). This need not be an exhaustive list. (iv) the classification and 4.1 The hazard classification of the substance(s), resulting from the labelling of the substance as application of Title I and II of Regulation (EC) No 1272/2008 for all hazard specified in section 4 of Annex classes and categories in that Regulation, In addition, for each entry, the VI; reasons why no classification is given for a hazard class or differentiation of a hazard class should be provided (i.e. if data are lacking, inconclusive, or conclusive but not sufficient for classification), 4.2 The resulting hazard label for the substance(s), resulting from the application of Title III of Regulation (EC) No 1272/2008, 4.3 Specific concentration limits, where applicable, resulting from the application of Article 10 of Regulation (EC) No 1272/2008 and Articles 4 to 7 of Directive 1999/45/EC. (v) guidance on safe use of the This information shall be consistent with that in the Safety Data Sheet, substance as specified in Section where such a Safety Data Sheet is required according to Article 31. 5 of Annex VI; 5.1. First-aid measures (Safety Data Sheet heading 4) 5.2. Fire-fighting measures (Safety Data Sheet heading 5) 5.3. Accidental release measures (Safety Data Sheet heading 6) 5.4. Handling and storage (Safety Data Sheet heading 7) 5.5. Transport information (Safety Data Sheet heading 14) Where a Chemical Safety Report is not required, the following additional information is required: 5.6. Exposure controls/personal protection (Safety Data Sheet heading 8) 5.7. Stability and reactivity (Safety Data Sheet heading 10) 5.8. Disposal considerations 5.8.1. Disposal considerations (Safety Data Sheet heading 13) 5.8.2. Information on recycling and methods of disposal for industry 5.8.3. Information on recycling and methods of disposal for the public. (x) for substances in quantities of 6.1. Main use category: 1 to 10 tonnes, exposure 6.1.1. (a) industrial use; and/or (b) professional use; and/or (c) consumer information as specified in use. section 6 of Annex VI; 6.1.2. Specification for industrial and professional use: (a) used in closed system; and/or (b) use resulting in inclusion into or onto matrix; and/or (c) non-dispersive use; and/or (d) dispersive use. 6.2. Significant route(s) of exposure: 6.2.1. Human exposure: (a) oral; and/or (b) dermal; and/or (c) inhalatory. 6.2.2. Environmental exposure: (a) water; and/or (b) air; and/or (c) solid waste; and/or (d) soil. 6.3. Pattern of exposure: (a) accidental/infrequent; and/or (b) occasional; and/or (c) continuous/frequent. The remaining points refer to (vi) the provision of study summaries for information derived by the application of Annexes VII to XI (vi); (vii) robust study summaries in cases where one is required by Annex I requirements for CSAs (which do not apply to 1-10t substances); (viii) an indication as to the appropriate experience of assessors; (ix) proposals for testing for test endpoints listed in Annexes IX and X; and (xi) concerning the availability of information on the internet. As such, most of these points mainly refer to the information to be submitted depending on tonnage (discussed below). Article 10 also establishes the requirement to undertake a Chemical Safety Assessment (CSA) and submit a Chemical Safety Report (CSR) when one is required under Article 14. As noted above, these REACH 1 to 10 t Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 5 CSA/CSR requirements only apply to substances registered in quantities of 10 tonnes or more and hence do not apply to the 1-10t substances that are the subject of this study9. 2.2.2 Article 12 - Information to be Submitted Depending on Tonnage The information to be submitted depending on tonnage is defined in Article 12 of the Regulation in combination with the Annex relevant to the tonnage band; Annex VII in the case of the 1-10t substances. Annex VII is, itself, divided into two types of information: information on physicochemical properties – where this is required for all 1-10t substances; information on toxicological and ecotoxicological properties – where this is only required for certain types of 1-10t substances. Physico-chemical Information to be submitted The physicochemical information that must be provided for all substances (including 1-10t substances) is summarised in Table 2.2. Table 2.2: Physico-chemical Information Requirements in Annex VII 1 Physicochemical Adaptations to Requirements Endpoints 7.1 Physical state of None specified substance (at 20 °C and 101.3 kPa) 7.2 Melting/ freezing Only above -20 °C point 7.3 Boiling point Not required for gases or for solids that melt above 300 °C or any substance which decomposes before boiling. Boiling point at reduced pressure may be used 7.4 Relative density Where the substance is only stable in solution in a particular solvent and the solution density is similar to that of the solvent, an indication of whether the solution density is higher or lower than the solvent density is sufficient. For gases, an estimation is required based on molecular weight and the Ideal Gas Laws 7.5 Vapour pressure Not required for solids that melt above 300 °C (if between 200 °C and 300 °C, a limit value based on measurement or a recognised calculation method is sufficient) 7.6 Surface tension Not required where water solubility is below 1 mg/l at 20 °C, otherwise only when: based on structure, surface activity is expected or can be predicted; or surface activity is a desired property of the material 7.7 Water solubility Not required if hydrolytically unstable at pH 4.7 and 9 (half-life < 12 hours) or readily oxidises in water. Insoluble substances require a limit test up to the analytical detection limit 7.8 Partition coefficient Not required for inorganic substances. Calculated log P may be provided where (at least n-octanol/ water direct measurement cannot be performed ratio) 9 Although the extension of the requirements to substances classified as C, M or R 1A or 1B is being reviewed by the Commission based on Art. 138(1). REACH 1 to 10 t Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 6 7.9 Flash-point 7.10 Flammability 7.11 Explosive properties 7.12 Self-ignition temperature 7.13 Oxidising properties Not required for inorganic substances, or where: the substance only contains volatile organic components with flash-points above 100 °C for aqueous solutions, or the estimated flash-point is above 200 °C, or the flash-point can be accurately predicted by interpolation from existing characterised materials Not required for solids that are explosive, pyrophoric or spontaneously ignite when in contact with air. Also not for gases if the concentration of the flammable gas in a mixture with inert gases is so low that, when mixed with air, the concentration is all times below the lower limit or for substances which spontaneously ignite in contact with air Not required where: there are no chemical groups associated with explosive properties present in the molecule; the substance contains chemical groups associated with explosive properties which include oxygen and the calculated oxygen balance is less than -200; an organic substance or a homogenous mixture of organic substances contains chemical groups associated with explosive properties but the exothermic decomposition energy is less than 500 J/g and the onset of exothermic decomposition is below 500 °C; or a mixture of inorganic oxidising substances (UN Division 5.1) with organic materials, the concentration of the inorganic oxidising substance is: less than 15 %, by mass if assigned to UN Packaging Group I (high hazard) or II (medium hazard); or less than 30 %, by mass if assigned to UN Packaging Group III (low hazard). Neither a test for propagation of detonation, nor a test for sensitivity to detonative shock, is required if the exothermic decomposition energy of organic materials is less than 800 J/g Not required where: the substance is explosive or ignites spontaneously with air at room temperature; a liquid is non-flammable in air, e.g. no flash point up to 200 °C a gas has no flammable range; or a solid has a melting point ≤ 160 °C, or if preliminary results exclude selfheating of the substance up to 400 °C Not required where the substance is: explosive; highly flammable; an organic peroxide; is incapable of reacting exothermically with combustible materials, for example on the basis of the chemical structure; or a solid if the preliminary test clearly indicates that the test substance has oxidising properties. Note that as there is no test method to determine the oxidising properties of gaseous mixtures, the evaluation of these properties must be realised by an estimation method based on the comparison of the oxidising potential of gases in a mixture with that of the oxidising potential of oxygen in air 7.14 Granulometry Only for substances marketed in solid or granular form Note 1: Where these conditions are met, the registrant must clearly state this fact and the reasons justifying this statement REACH 1 to 10 t Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 7 Toxicological and Ecotoxicological Information to be Submitted For those substances where little or no toxicological and/or ecotoxicological information exists at present, the gathering of the information required for these endpoints in Annex VII is crucial to the identification of hazardous properties that are, as yet, unknown and the implementation and communication of appropriate controls via CLP, the Safety Data Sheets (SDS) and the CLI. As noted above, information on toxicological and ecotoxicological properties in Annex VII is, however, only required for certain types of 1-10t substances where these are defined in Article 12 of REACH in combination with Annex III. Here, Article 12 identifies that the technical dossier: “shall include all physicochemical, toxicological and ecotoxicological information that is relevant and available to the registrant and as a minimum the following: a) the information specified in Annex VII for non-phase-in substances, and for phase-in substances meeting one or both of the criteria specified in Annex III, manufactured or imported in quantities of one tonne or more per year per manufacturer or importer; b) the information on physicochemical properties specified in Annex VII, section 7 for phase-in substances manufactured or imported in quantities of one tonne or more per year per manufacturer or importer which do not meet either of the criteria specified in Annex III.” The criteria in Annex III (as amended10 ) referred to in Article 12 (and which trigger the need to provide information on all the Annex VII endpoints11 ) are: "(a) substances for which it is predicted (i.e. by the application of (Q)SARs or other evidence) that they are likely to meet the criteria for category 1A or 1B classification in the hazard classes carcinogenicity, germ cell mutagenicity or reproductive toxicity or the criteria in Annex XIII; (b) substances: iii. with dispersive or diffuse use(s) particularly where such substances are used in consumer mixtures or incorporated into consumer articles; and iv. for which it is predicted (i.e. by application of (Q)SARs or other evidence) that they are likely to meet the classification criteria for any health or environmental hazard classes or differentiations under Regulation (EC) No 1272/2008”. 10 Regulation (EC) No 1272/2008 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 December 2008 on classification, labelling and packaging of substances and mixtures, amending and repealing Directives 67/548/EEC and 1999/45/EC, and amending Regulation (EC) No 1907/2006 (Text with EEA relevance) Official Journal L 353 , 31/12/2008 P. 0001 - 1355 11 And in this case, further testing may then be required to fulfil the data gaps; where animal testing is required to meet Annex VII a testing proposal would be submitted to ECHA. REACH 1 to 10 t Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 8 The effect of Article 12 (making reference to Annex III) is that it divides the 1-10t substances into those that: are required only to provide the physico-chemical information in Annex VII (as outlined earlier); and in addition to the physico-chemical information (outlined earlier), are required to provide information on the human health and environmental endpoints according to Annex VII. Figure 2.1 summarises the effect of Article 12 in combination with Annex III in terms of the substances which do and do not need to provide toxicological and ecotoxicological information in their registration dossiers. Table 2.3 provides a summary of the toxicological and ecotoxicological information required under Annex VII for substances registered only in the 1-10t band. Substance should already be registered Substances with a C, M, or R 1A/1B Classification Yes Article 23(1) (a) of REACH requires that all phasein CMRs 1A/1B (either for which there is already a harmonised classification or self-classified) above 1tpa and all phase-in R50/53 above 100 tpa) had to be registered by 1 December 2010. No Substances for which it is predicted by the application of (Q)SARs or other evidence that they are likely to meet classification as C, M, or R 1A/1B or PBT/vPvB Yes Registration requires Annex VII Toxicological and Ecotoxicological Data No Substances with a dispersive/diffuse use No Data on Annex VII toxicological and ecotoxicological endpoints identifies appropriate classifications? Yes Substances which meet or are predicted by the application of (Q)SARs or other evidence that they are likely to meet, any human health or environmental classification Yes No Yes Registration only requires data on physicochemical endpoints in Annex VII Classifications communicated in SDS and CLP/CLI No additional human health or environmental classifications identified Figure 2.1: Information Required for Substances Registered only in the 1-10t band REACH 1 to 10 t Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 9 Table 2.3: Toxicological and Ecotoxicological Information Requirements in Annex VII Endpoints Requirements Adaptations to Requirements Human Health Endpoints (Mammalian Toxicology) 8.1 Skin irritation Following consecutive steps: Steps 3 and 4 is not need where: /skin corrosion (1) an assessment of the available 1) and 2) indicates classification as corrosive to human and animal data; the skin or irritating to eyes; (2) an assessment of the acid or the substance is flammable in air at room alkaline reserve; temperature; (3) in vitro study for skin corrosion; the substance is classified as very toxic in and contact with skin; or (4) in vitro study for skin irritation an acute toxicity study by the dermal route does not indicate skin irritation up to the limit dose level 8.2 Eye irritation Following consecutive steps: Step 3 is not need where: (1) an assessment of the available 1) and 2) indicates classification as corrosive to human and animal data; the skin or irritating to eyes; or (2) an assessment of the acid or the substance is flammable in air at room alkaline reserve; and temperature (3) in vitro study for eye irritation 8.3 Skin Following consecutive steps: Step 2 is not need where: sensitisation (1) an assessment of the available (1) the available information indicates human, animal and alternative classification for skin sensitisation or data; corrosivity; (2) In vivo testing (The Murine (2) the substance is a strong acid (pH ≤ 2,0) or Local Lymph Node Assay (LLNA) is base (pH ≥ 11,5); or the first-choice method for in vivo the substance is flammable in air at room testing temperature 8.4 Mutagenicity 8.4.1. In vitro gene mutation study Further testing shall be considered in case of a in bacteria positive result 8.5 Acute toxicity 8.5.1. By oral route Not required where: the substance is classified as corrosive to the skin; or a study on acute toxicity by the inhalation route (8.5.2) is available (requirement for 10 to 100 tonne substances) Environmental Endpoints (Ecotoxicology) 9.1 Aquatic toxicity 9.1.1. Short-term toxicity 9.1.1. Not required where: testing on invertebrates there are mitigating factors indicating that aquatic (preferred species Daphnia) toxicity is unlikely to occur, e.g. substance is highly insoluble in water or the substance is unlikely to cross biological membranes; a long-term aquatic toxicity study on invertebrates is available; or adequate information for environmental classification and labelling is available. Long-term toxicity testing may be considered instead of 9.1.1. The long-term aquatic toxicity study on Daphnia (Annex IX, section 9.1.5) is considered if the substance is poorly water soluble REACH 1 to 10 t Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 10 Table 2.3: Toxicological and Ecotoxicological Information Requirements in Annex VII Endpoints Requirements Adaptations to Requirements 9.1.2. Growth inhibition study 9.1.2. Not required where there are mitigating aquatic plants (algae factors indicating that aquatic toxicity is unlikely to preferred) occur e.g. substance is highly insoluble in water or the substance is unlikely to cross biological membranes 9.2 Degradation 9.2.1 Biotic/ 9.2.1.1. Ready Not required for inorganic substances biodegradability In addition to this basic set of information, the Regulation identifies that in case of a positive result for the in vitro gene mutation study in bacteria (8.4 Mutagenicity) “further testing shall be considered”. What this means in practice is expanded upon in detail in ECHA guidance. The ECHA “Guidance on Information Requirements and Chemical Safety Assessment - Chapter R.7a: Endpoint Specific Guidance12” sets out specific guidance on meeting the information requirements in Annexes VI to XI to the REACH Regulation. The guidance includes, for each endpoint, an Integrated Testing Strategy (ITS) “providing guidance on how to define and generate relevant information on substances in order to meet the requirements of REACH13”. In the event of a positive result in the Annex VII test for mutagenicity, the general route followed by ECHA guidance is one of undertaking relevant mutagenicity testing (including in vivo studies) progressing up through Annex VIII and above. Thus, to establish genotoxicity all of the following are required in the event of a positive result for GMBact: either or both of CAbvitro/MNT Vitro or GMvitro tests in Annex VIII as appropriate to the ITS; Cytvivo or GMvivo14 in vivo tests in Annex IX as appropriate to the ITS. For a substance presenting negative in the in vivo tests it would be concluded that the substance is not genotoxic and no further testing or consideration for carcinogenicity or reproductive toxicity is required. For a substance presenting positive in the in vivo tests it would be concluded that the substance is genotoxic to somatic cells. This, in turn, triggers consideration of whether the substance is also toxic to germ cells. Positive conclusions in relation to either trigger further consideration of carcinogenicity and reproductive toxicity (but no further testing is required in relation to these endpoints). 12 Guidance on Information Requirements and Chemical Safety Assessment - Chapter R.7a: Endpoint specific guidance, Version 3.0, August 2014 13 Structure of Chapter R.7a – page 15 14 GMbact: gene mutation test in bacteria (Ames test); CAbvitro, in vitro chromosome aberration test; MNTvitro, in vitro micronucleus test; GMvitro:gene mutation assay in mammalian cells; Cytvivo:cytogenetic assay in experimental animals; GMvivo:gene mutation assay in experimental animals REACH 1 to 10 t Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 11 Following the ITS, the conclusions possible for a 1-10t substance recording a positive result in the Annex VII GMBact test for mutagenicity are: the substance is genotoxic to somatic cells only and hence meets classification as a category 2 mutagen; the substance is genotoxic to somatic and germ cells and hence meets classification as a category 1B mutagen; the substance is not genotoxic. 2.3 Duty to Communicate Information in the Supply Chain 2.3.1 Overview In addition to information requirements to be supplied in registration dossiers, REACH places duties on manufacturers, importers and downstream users (DUs) to supply information up and down the supply chain. This includes: provision of key information on a substance down the supply chain by the production of Safety Data Sheets (SDSs); obligations on downstream users in relation to supplying information both up and down the supply chain. 2.3.2 Safety Data Sheets The requirement for manufacturers and importers to provide a Safety Data Sheet (SDS) exists for all substances with hazardous properties (including those produced in quantities of 1-10t per year) and is defined in Annex II of REACH. The aim of a SDS is to provide downstream users of a substance with information to enable them to implement controls to address the risks arising from use of a substance. Sections 7 and 8 (Handling and storage; Exposure controls/personal protection) in particular are fed from the exposure scenarios developed for that substance during CSA. For such substances there should be no discrepancies between the information in the SDS and that in the exposure assessment completed as part of CSA and handling and storage advice and exposure control measures should be described with detail in the SDS. As noted in Section 2.1, no CSA is required for the 1-10t substances and only more general advice is required in the SDS, the specification for which is summarised in Table 2.4. However, all available information should be considered for classification and communication in the SDS and not only the information specifically required for a registrant’s own registration. As such, for substances registered in the 1-10t band and also in higher tonnages the information communicated including classifications must be consistent regardless of the reduced dossier information requirements for 110t registrations. REACH 1 to 10 t Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 12 Table 2.4: Content of Safety Data Sheets (SDS) as Required by Annex II of REACH Main Section Subsections (Required of all substances regardless of CSR) SECTION 1: Identification of the 1.2 Relevant identified uses of the substance or mixture and substance/mixture and of the uses advised against company/undertaking SECTION 2: Hazards identification 2.1. Classification of the substance or mixture 2.2. Label elements 2.3. Other hazards Information shall be provided on other hazards which do not result in classification but which may contribute to the overall hazards of the substance or mixture SECTION 3: 3.1. Substances Composition/information on 3.2. Mixtures ingredients SECTION 4: First aid measures 4.1. Description of first aid measures 4.2. Most important symptoms and effects, both acute and delayed 4.3. Indication of any immediate medical attention and special treatment needed SECTION 5: Firefighting measures SECTION 6: Accidental release 6.1. Personal precautions, protective equipment and measures emergency procedures 6.2. Environmental precautions 6.3. Methods and material for containment and cleaning up 6.4. Reference to other sections SECTION 7: Handling and storage 7.1. Precautions for safe handling 7.2. Conditions for safe storage, including any incompatibilities 7.3. Specific end use(s) SECTION 8: Exposure 8.1. Control parameters controls/personal protection 8.2. Exposure controls SECTION 9: Physical and chemical 9.1. Information on basic physical and chemical properties REACH 1 to 10 t Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 13 Current source of Information for 1-10t CMRs 1A/1B Annex VI information Annex VI information and application of Annex VII to XI requirements Information in relation to carcinogenicity and reproductive/developmental toxicity that have been considered by application of Annex VII to XI requirements but cannot be classified owing to data limitations. Annex VI information Annex VI information Annex VI information Annex VI information Annex VI information Annex VII information on physicochemical properties Table 2.4: Content of Safety Data Sheets (SDS) as Required by Annex II of REACH Main Section Subsections (Required of all substances regardless of CSR) properties 9.2. Other information SECTION 10: Stability and reactivity SECTION 11: Toxicological 11.1. Information on toxicological effects information SECTION 12: Ecological information 12.1. Toxicity 12.2. Persistence and degradability 12.3. Bioaccumulative potential SECTION 13: Disposal considerations SECTION 14: Transport information SECTION 15: Regulatory information 12.4. Mobility in soil 12.5. Results of PBT and vPvB assessment 12.6. Other adverse effects 13.1. Waste treatment methods 15.1. Safety, health and environmental regulations/legislation specific for the substance or mixture 15.2. Chemical safety assessment It must be indicated if a CSA has been carried out. SECTION 16: Other information ANNEX Exposure scenarios from CSA/CSR REACH 1 to 10 t Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 14 Current source of Information for 1-10t CMRs 1A/1B Annex VII information Annex VI information and application of Annex VII to XI requirements Application of Annex VII to XI requirements Results from tests on ready biodegradation in accordance with Section 9.2.1.1 of Annex VII Octanol-water partitioning coefficient experimentally determined in accordance with Section 7.8 of Annex VII Annex VII information on physicochemical properties Not required Application of Annex VII to XI requirements Annex VI information Annex VI information References to other regulation as appropriate which would include: Directive 98/24/EC on the protection of the health and safety of workers from the risks related to chemical agents at work (CAD); the Carcinogens and Mutagens Directive 2004/37/EC (CMD); the Pregnant and Breastfeeding Workers Directive 92/85/EEC; Directive 2001/95/EC on General Product Safety; Toys Directive 2009/48/EC; the Drinking Water Directive 98/83/EC; and The Water Framework (WFD) and EQS Directives. Whilst no CSA is required it must be indicated if a CSA has been carried out. As appropriate Not Required 2.3.3 Obligations on Downstream Users under REACH REACH also places duties on downstream users to communicate information up and down the supply chain where this includes: passing information that identifies particular uses up the supply chain (so that they can be included as uses in the registration dossier); a duty to ensure the identification and application of appropriate risk management measures identified in safety data sheets; a duty to pass information further down the supply chain in the form of SDS to ensure safe use by downstream users; a duty to keep SDS up to date and notify downstream users of any changes (including in relation to Authorisation and Restriction. A list of the key provisions and their applicability in relation to the 1-10t substances is provided in Table 2.5. REACH 1 to 10 t Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 15 Table 2.5: List of the Key Provisions by Duty-holders, Drivers and Benefits for Information in the Supply Chain Article Key Provisions 31(1) Requirement on a supplier of a substance or a mixture to provide recipient with a SDS compiled in accordance with Annex II. M, I, DU 31(8-9) The SDS shall be provided free of charge either electronically or on paper. M, I, DU Requirement on a supplier to update the SDS and provide it free of charge to all former recipients as soon as new information becomes available or once an authorisation has been granted or refused or once a restriction has been imposed. M, I, DU Requirement on a supplier of an article containing a substance meeting the criteria in Article 57 (including CMRs 1A/1B) in a concentration above 0.1 % weight by weight (w/w) to provide the recipient with sufficient information to allow safe use, including as a minimum the name of that substance. M, I Requirement on a supplier of an article to provide a consumer on request with sufficient information to allow safe use, including as a minimum the name of that substance, free of charge and within 45 days of the request D 34 Requirement on every actor (including distributor) in the supply chain to communicate the information on new information or any other information that might call into question the appropriateness of the risk management measures identified in an SDS to the next actor or distributor up the supply chain. M, I, DU, D 35 Requirement on an employer to provide workers and their representatives with access to information received in accordance with articles 31 and 32 in relation to substances or mixtures which they may use or be exposed to in the course of their work. M, I, DU, D 39 Article 39 states that downstream users shall comply with the Article 37 obligations at the latest 12 months after receiving a registration number. DU 37(5) Requirement on downstream user to identify and apply appropriate measures to adequately control risks identified in an SDS supplied to it. DU 33(1 and 2) Duty-holders Requirement on downstream user to recommend, where suitable, measures to adequately control the risks identified in an SDS supplied to it. REACH 1 to 10 t Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 16 37(2) Requirement on a downstream user to have the right to make a use known in writing. Requirements on distributors to pass on such information to the next actor up the supply chain. DU 37(6) Requirement on a downstream user to identify and apply appropriate risk management measures needed to ensure that the risks to human health and the environment are adequately controlled. Where a downstream user does not prepare a chemical safety report in accordance with paragraph 4(c), he shall consider the use(s) of the substance and identify and apply any appropriate risk management measures needed to ensure that the risks to human health and the environment are adequately controlled. Where necessary, this information shall be included in any safety data sheet prepared by him. DU Key: M = Manufacturers, I = Importers, DU = Downstream Users, D = Distributors REACH 1 to 10 t Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 17 2.4 Compliance with Parallel Regulation As noted in the overview in Section 2.1, as the requirement to conduct a CSA does not currently apply to the 1-10t substances, risk management is, at present, achieved via classification under CLP which, in turn, triggers risk management requirements under other community regulation. In the event that a substance is identified as meeting one or more criteria for classification in accordance with Regulation (EC) No 1272/2008, the Classification and Labelling Inventory (CLI) will be updated to reflect the new classification. This change in classification then triggers actions on the part of manufacturers, importers and downstream users to comply with other pieces of community regulation. Key areas of regulation requiring action on the part of manufacturers, importers and downstream users to assess exposure, risks and implement risk management measures are: Worker health and safety regulation; Product safety requirements; and Waste regulation. 2.4.1 Worker Health and Safety Regulation Several pieces of worker health and safety regulation require action on the part of employers (which would include manufacturers and downstream users of substances) to assess the risk and exposure of workers to substances with C, M or R 1A or 1B properties or with other hazardous properties. Key pieces of regulation here are: the Carcinogens and Mutagens Directive 2004/37/EC (CMD); Directive 98/24/EC on the protection of the health and safety of workers from the risks related to chemical agents at work (CAD); the Pregnant and Breastfeeding Workers Directive 92/85/EEC; and Directive 94/33/EC on Young Workers Directive 2004/37/EC on Carcinogens and Mutagens The Carcinogens and Mutagens Directive 2004/37/EC (CMD) sets specific risk management measures for workers exposed to carcinogens and mutagens. The scope of the Carcinogens and Mutagens Directive is specifically focussed on the carcinogenic and mutagenic properties of substances and associated risks to workers’ health. Environmental hazards and risk are outside of the scope, as are impacts on the environment and consumers. As the Directive applies to all employers where workers may be exposed to carcinogens and/or mutagens its provisions apply to both manufacturers and downstream users as defined by REACH. Under Article 3(2) manufacturers and downstream users must determine the nature, degree and duration of workers' exposure to carcinogens or mutagens in order to make it possible to assess any risk to the workers' health or safety and to lay down the measures to be taken. When assessing the risk, account shall be taken of all routes of exposure, such as absorption into and/or through the skin. When the risk assessment is carried out, particular attention shall be given to any effects concerning the health or safety of workers at particular risk and shall, inter alia, take account of the Phase 2 1-10t Study: Final Options for Extending Information Requirements RPA | 18 desirability of not employing such workers in areas where they may come into contact with carcinogens or mutagens. Data on workers’ exposure to C and M 1A and 1B must be generated at specific workstations in order to inform the risk assessment. In the case of any activity likely to involve a risk of exposure to carcinogens or mutagens, the nature, degree and duration of workers' exposure shall be determined in order to make it possible to assess any risk to the workers' health or safety. There is no requirement under CMD for employers (manufacturers and downstream users) to generate additional data on hazards. As such, the information to complete the assessment is drawn from the SDS. Employers (manufacturers and downstream users) are, however, required to generate new data on the workers exposure to chemical agents on site (i.e. level, type and duration of exposure). In terms of risk management measures, CMD requires that, as a priority, workers' exposure must be prevented through substitution. If not possible, a closed technological system shall be used. Where a closed system is not technically possible, the employer shall reduce exposure to minimum through a number of risk management measures specified in the Directive. Directive 98/24/EC on Chemical Agents As with the CMD, Directive 98/24/EC15 on the protection of the health and safety of workers from the risks related to chemical agents at work (CAD) requires employers to determine whether any hazardous chemical agents are present at the workplace and assess any risk to the safety and health of workers arising from the presence of those chemical agents. As such, the scope of the CAD is broad, covering the assessment and control of all physicochemical and human health risks to workers. Environmental hazards and risk are outside of the scope, as are impacts on the environment, on humans via the environment and on consumers. As with CMD, site specific data on workers’ exposure to chemical agents at specific work stations must be generated. The SDS provided by suppliers under REACH will be the key means to identify and assess hazardous substances in the workplace. This hazard data will be combined with exposure data generated for specific workstations to assess the risk to individual workers. The Commission has issued a guidance document for employers on controlling risks from chemicals concerning the interface between the Chemicals Agent Directive and REACH at the workplace. 16 It states that, while the obligations of the CAD continue to apply after the adoption of the REACH Regulation, there is no duplication between the two acts. 15 Council Directive 98/24/EC of 7 April 1998 on the protection of the health and safety of workers from the risks related to chemical agents at work (fourteenth individual Directive within the meaning of Article 16(1) of Directive 89/391/EEC), OJ L 131, 5.5.1998, p. 11–23. 16 Guidance for employers on controlling risks from chemicals, Interface between Chemicals Agents Directive and REACH at the workplace, European Commission, October 2010, link available at: http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=716&langId=en&intPageId=223 Phase 2 1-10t Study: Final Options for Extending Information Requirements RPA | 19 Directive 92/85/EEC on Pregnant Workers and Directive 94/33/EC on Young Workers The Pregnant and Breastfeeding Workers Directive 92/85/EEC requires employers to conduct a risk assessment to the nature, degree and duration of exposure to certain types of chemical agents in so far as it is known that they endanger the health of pregnant women and the unborn child. The risk assessments apply to substances and mixtures, and require assessment of risks to vulnerable workers from substances generated in the workplace. This Directive sets risk management measures to limit the exposure of pregnant workers, workers who have recently given birth and or who are breastfeeding to certain hazardous chemicals. The risk management measures vary depending on whether the exposure is to chemical agents listed in Annex I or to chemical agents listed in Annex II (lead and lead derivatives), with work prohibited in the latter case. For chemical agents set in Annex I the duties on the employer include that: the employer shall assess the nature, degree and duration of exposure; he/she shall assess any risks to the safety or health and any possible effects on the pregnancy or breastfeeding of workers; and he/she shall then decide what measures should be taken. The Young Workers Directive 94/33/EC17 takes a two-tiered approach to protecting young workers from exposure to chemical agents. Firstly, employers are obliged to assess the hazards to young people, involving the identification of chemical hazards with respect to chemical agents in the workplace. They must then generate new site-specific data on the nature, degree and duration of exposure to chemical agents. Employers shall then adopt the measures necessary to protect the safety and health of young people. In particular, work involving the exposure of young people to agents to certain categories of substances is prohibited, namely substances that are toxic, carcinogenic, cause heritable genetic damage or harm to the unborn child or which in any other way chronically affect human health. 2.4.2 Compliance with Product Safety Regulation In addition to worker health and safety requirements, classification as C, M or R 1A/1B under CLP has implications in terms of safety of products. Annex XVII of REACH (entries 28 to 30) prohibits the placing on the market and the use of CMRs 1A/1B as substances or as constituents of other substances or mixtures for supply to the general public when the individual concentration in the substance or the mixture is equal to or greater to the generic/specific concentration limit of the CLP Regulation. However, currently consumer articles are not in the scope of the entries 28 to 30, but some specific legislation applies to some of these articles. Directive 2001/95/EC on General Product Safety The General Product Safety Directive (GPSD) is complementary to specific product safety legislation by sector. It applies in its entirety to consumer products falling outside the scope of sector Directives. In addition, it applies partially to consumer products covered by sector legislation (for 17 Council Directive 94/33/EC of 22 June 1994 on the protection of young people at work, OJ L 216, 20.8.1994, p. 12. Phase 2 1-10t Study: Final Options for Extending Information Requirements RPA | 20 example toys or cosmetics). In general specific sector provisions have priority over general provisions although the GPSD for certain aspects may be more detailed than the sector directives. Under Article 3 of the GPSD producers are obliged to place only safe products on the market where: ‘product’ means any product — including in the context of providing a service — which is intended for consumers or likely, under reasonably foreseeable conditions, to be used by consumers even if not intended for them; ‘producer’ means the manufacturer of the product, the manufacturer's representative, when the manufacturer is not established in the Community or the importer of the product or other professionals in the supply chain, insofar as their activities may affect the safety properties of a product; and ‘safe product’ means any product which, under normal or reasonably foreseeable conditions of use does not present any risk or only the minimum risks compatible with the product's use, considered to be acceptable and consistent with a high level of protection for the safety and health of persons including the categories of consumers at risk when using the product, in particular children and the elderly. In combination with considerations covered by other sector specific regulation, manufacturers, importers and downstream users of 1-10t substances used in products (as defined above) and identified as meeting classification for hazardous properties would have to consider the implications of such a classification on the safety of any products containing that substance. To comply with the GPSD, assessment of the risk to consumers from the presence of the substance in a product would be required where this would include consideration of human exposure to the substance from use of the product. In cases where products may pose a serious risk, the GPSD establishes that Member States are to assess and take appropriate action. Here, under certain conditions, the Commission may adopt a formal temporary Decision requiring the Member States to ban the marketing of a product, to recall it from consumers or to withdraw it from the market. A Decision of this kind is temporary but it may be renewed and result in permanent legislation. Emergency measures have been taken in the past for: Dimethylfumarate (DMF) and Phthalates. 2.4.3 Other Product Safety Regulation - Uses Not Exempted from REACH In addition to requirements on general product safety, a number of other regulations deal specifically with product safety in uses and applications that are not exempted from REACH. These include Regulation No 305/2011 for the Marketing of Construction Products and the Toys Directive 2009/48/EC. Regulation No 305/2011 for the Marketing of Construction Products The Construction Products Regulation (EU) No 305/201118 requires the manufacturer to draw up a declaration of performance when placing a product on the market. Where a construction product 18 Regulation (EU) No 305/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 9 March 2011 laying down harmonize d conditions for the marketing of construction products and repealing Council Directive 89/106/EEC, OJ L 88, 4.4.2011, p. 5. Phase 2 1-10t Study: Final Options for Extending Information Requirements RPA | 21 has been found to present a risk to the basic requirements set out under Annex I of the Regulation, Member States may conduct an evaluation of the product. Point 3 of Annex I deals with risks to hygiene, health and the environment, namely that: “The construction works must be designed and built in such a way that they will, throughout their life cycle, not be a threat to the hygiene or health and safety of workers, occupants or neighbours, nor have an exceedingly high impact, over their entire life cycle, on the environmental quality or on the climate during their construction, use and demolition, in particular as a result of any of the following: (a) the giving-off of toxic gas; (b) the emissions of dangerous substances, volatile organic compounds (VOC), greenhouse gases or dangerous particles into indoor or outdoor air; (c) the emission of dangerous radiation; (d) the release of dangerous substances into ground water, marine waters, surface waters or soil; (e) the release of dangerous substances into drinking water or substances which have an otherwise negative impact on drinking water; (f) faulty discharge of waste water, emission of flue gases or faulty disposal of solid or liquid waste; (g) dampness in parts of the construction works or on surfaces within the construction works.” Toys Directive 2009/48/EC Directive 2009/48/EC on the safety of toys19 lays down rules on the safety of toys and on their free movement within the internal market. Article 18 of the Toy Safety Directive requires manufacturers, before placing a toy on the market, to carry out an analysis of the chemical, physical, mechanical, electrical, flammability, hygiene and radioactivity hazards that the toy may present, as well as an assessment of the potential exposure to such hazards. 2.4.4 Compliance with Waste Legislation Waste Framework Directive 2008/98/EC Directive 2008/98/EC (the Waste Framework Directive) establishes a legal framework for the treatment of waste within the Community, and aims at protection of the environment and human health by way of preventing or reducing the harmful effects of waste generation and waste management. Section 13 of Annex II of REACH on the requirements for the compilation of safety data sheets provides that this section of the safety data sheet must describe information for proper waste 19 Directive 2009/48/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 June 2009 on the safety of toys, OJ L 170, 30.6.2009, p.1 Phase 2 1-10t Study: Final Options for Extending Information Requirements RPA | 22 management of the substance or mixture and/or its container to assist in the determination of safe and environmentally preferred waste management options, consistent with the requirements in accordance with Directive 2008/98/EC. 2.4.5 Compliance with Limit Values and Exposure Limits under Parallel Regulation In addition to the implementation of risk control measures in accordance with the above described regulations, a number of regulations permit the establishment of limit values and exposure limits by the Commission and Member States. Once established, these must be complied with. However, it should be noted that the level of toxicological and ecotoxicological information required under Annex VII is, by itself, not sufficient for the Commission or Member States to derive limit values and exposure limits. Thus, without undertaking further testing, only for 1-10t substances for which there is information in excess of the Annex VII requirements would such limits be identifiable. At present, this is an unlikely outcome except for 1-10t substances for which the information already exists and/or the substance is also registered in one or more higher tonnage bands. For completeness, the key regulation that permits the setting of limit values and exposure limits is provided in the following subsections. Directive 98/24/EC on Chemical Agents In addition to the duties on employers, the Chemical Agents Directive (CAD) requires the evaluation of the relationship between the health effects of hazardous chemical agents and the level of occupational exposure in order to propose indicative occupational exposure limit values (IOELV) for the protection of workers from chemical risks. These limit values are set at EU level by the Commission. Member States should then set national occupational exposure limit values, taking into account the Community limit values. In addition, binding biological limit values may be drawn up at Community level on the basis of the evaluation described above and of the availability of measurement techniques, and shall reflect feasibility factors while maintaining the aim of ensuring the health of workers at work. Binding occupational exposure limit values may also be drawn up at Community level. Member States shall then establish a corresponding national binding OEL. If a binding biological limit value is established, Member States shall establish a corresponding national binding biological limit. The SDS should list the national exposure and biological limit values set in accordance with the CAD. Directive 2004/37/EC on Carcinogens and Mutagens Under Article 16 of the Directive, the Council shall set out limit values on the basis of the available information, including scientific and technical data, in respect of all those carcinogens or mutagens for which this is possible, and, where necessary, other directly related provisions. Drinking Water Directive 98/83/EC Directive 98/83/EC on the quality of water intended for human consumption20 aims at protecting human health from the adverse effects of contamination of water intended for human consumption. 20 Directive 98/83/EC on the quality of water intended for human consumption, OJ L 330, 5.12.1998, p. 32– 54 Phase 2 1-10t Study: Final Options for Extending Information Requirements RPA | 23 It covers a number of chemical parameters for which parametric values are set up in Annex I. Member States may also set parametric values for additional substances which, in numbers or concentrations, constitute a potential danger to human health. Derived No Effect Level (DNEL) values as result of a risk assessment under REACH may inform the development of values under Annex I where sufficient information is available to generate them. Water Framework (WFD) and Environmental Quality Standards (EQS) Directives Under the WFD and EQS Directives, environmental quality standards for priority substances and priority hazardous substances in surface water are set. EQS aims to control environmental risk as well as secondary poisoning and exposure of humans via the environment, as well as long-term exposure, bioaccumulation and secondary poisoning of biota. Synergies exist between the Predicted No Effect Levels (PNECs) that can be derived by consideration of information from Annexes VII and VIII of REACH and the EQS under the water legislation. Phase 2 1-10t Study: Final Options for Extending Information Requirements RPA | 24 3 Development of Options for Refining Information Requirements 3.1 Introduction The overall aim of REACH as a whole is to achieve: a high level of protection of human health and environment; free movement of substances on their own, in mixtures, and in articles; while enhancing competitiveness and innovation. One of the main drivers for the adoption of REACH is the fact that, prior to its adoption, information on the inherent properties needed to manage chemicals safely was not available for a significant percentage of the substances that have historically been placed on the European market (of which more than half – around 20,000 - are expected to be registered in the 1-10t band only). The production, use and disposal of chemicals and of products containing hazardous chemicals had (and has) been linked to a wide range of environmental and health impacts. As such, while some examples of the adverse consequences of a limited number of recognised hazardous substances were known, due to the lack of data of a significant percentage of substances, the overall impact of chemicals on the environment and human health was not known and the existence of further hazardous substances was (and still is) suspected. REACH seeks to address these issues and achieve its aims by requiring manufacturers and importers to generate data on the substances they manufacture or import, to use these data to assess the risks related to these substances and to develop and recommend appropriate risk management measures. Furthermore, to ensure that they actually meet these obligations, registration requires them to submit a dossier containing all this information to the Agency. At the same time, requirements for generation of information on substances under REACH is tiered according to the volumes of manufacture or importation of a substance (because these provide an indication of the potential for exposure of man and the environment to the substances). However, to reduce the possible economic impact on low volume substances, REACH identifies that new toxicological and ecotoxicological information should only be required for “priority substances between 1 and 10 tonnes”. For other substances in that quantity range REACH identifies that there should be incentives to encourage manufacturers and importers to provide this information (and indeed Registration fees are waived for substances providing this information). In relation to the identification of “priority substances between 1 and 10 tonnes”, as described in Section 2.2.2, this is established by a combination of Article 12 and Annex III and prioritisation is by means of prediction of toxicological properties by “the application of (Q)SARs and other evidence”. Phase 2 1-10t Study: Final Options for Extending Information Requirements RPA | 25 Thus, “priority substances between 1 and 10 tonnes” under REACH are “substances for which it is predicted (i.e. by the application of (Q)SARs or other evidence) that they are likely to meet the criteria for”: classification as C, M or R 1A/1B or PBT/vPvB; or any health or environmental hazard classes or differentiations under CLP and have a dispersive or diffuse use. In respect of achieving the overarching aims of REACH (listed above) the successfulness (or otherwise) of the current strategy in relation to the 1-10t substances is highly dependent on the extent to which hazardous properties will be correctly “predicted by the application of (Q)SARs or other evidence”. This applies to both the identification of priority substances and also to the overarching objective of reducing the possible (cost) impact on low volume substances. This is because: For the identification of priority substances: the successfulness of the strategy depends on the extent to which QSARS or other evidence are able to correctly identify substances that do have (as yet unknown) hazardous properties – any substances which are not correctly identified as priority 1-10t substances will not have to provide the Annex VII toxicological and ecotoxicological information (and their hazardous properties will not be identified and risks managed); and For reducing the possible economic impact on low volume substances: the successfulness of the strategy depends on the extent to which QSARS or other evidence are able to correctly identify substances that do not have hazardous properties – those substances that are incorrectly identified as priority 1-10t substances would have to incur the costs of providing Annex VII toxicological and ecotoxicological information despite the fact that no hazardous properties would be identified by undertaking the testing (because there are none). Considering both objectives, if prediction by QSARs and other evidence is 100% accurate in the correct identification of substances with/without hazardous properties, then only those substances with hazardous properties would be required to incur the costs of providing the toxicological and ecotoxicological information that would confirm the predicted classifications. This is the ideal situation. However, no prediction by QSARs or other evidence is 100% accurate in its predictions. Indeed, for an individual QSAR endpoint, a sensitivity value of 70% (meaning that 70% of substances with a positive response for the endpoint would be correctly identified as positive and 30% would be identified as false negative) and a specificity value of 70% (meaning that 70% of substances with a negative response for the endpoint would be correctly identified as negative and 30% would be identified as false positive) would be considered very good. Thus, even with very good levels of predictive accuracy using QSARs there may be a significant number of false positives and false negatives (as well as true positives and true negatives). In addition to predictive uncertainties, the current Annex III criteria exclude substances with potential human health and environmental classifications (with the exception of CMRs and PBT/vPvB) from the requirement to provide information that would lead to classification as long as they have no dispersive or diffuse uses. This effectively excludes the possibility of identifying the Phase 2 1-10t Study: Final Options for Extending Information Requirements RPA | 26 hazardous properties (and thus controlling the risks) of substances with no diffuse/dispersive uses even though these substances may pose a risk to, for example, workers. For these reasons, as part of a study examining refinements to information requirements, it is necessary to examine the likely successfulness of the current strategy and, within this, consider alternative approaches and adjustments. Indeed, the specification for this study identifies that “a limited number of options for amending Annex III should be developed, together with an estimation of their respective impact in terms of capacity to identify hazardous substances”. In addition to the factors that govern whether substances require toxicological and ecotoxicological information in Annex VII, the aim of the study is also to consider: the nature of the toxicological and ecotoxicological information required under Annex VII; the usefulness of that information; and whether any refinements could be made which would further enhance the benefits in terms of the identification and hazardous properties and implementation of suitable controls (within acceptable cost boundaries). Options for refining the information requirements in Annex VII have been developed and assessed in combination with those for Annex III. The options and the reasoning behind them are described in the following sub-sections. 3.2 Options for Altering Annex III When developing options for Annex III, the purpose has been to allow the subsequent analysis of costs and benefits to measure the relative successfulness of the strategies available for identifying priority 1-10t substances (by prediction using QSARs and other information) versus identifying all hazardous substances (by requiring all substances to provide toxicological and ecotoxicological information). Legal aspects of the options have not been considered as these require considerable legal expertise and, in any case, the need for such expertise is/should be contingent on the findings of the study (and not the other way around). The options that appear useful to consider in relation to Annex III are: Do nothing- the baseline; Remove the diffuse/dispersive use criterion in Annex III – which would result in all 1-10t substances identified by QSARs or other information to have any human health or environmental classification to provide toxicological and ecotoxicological information (as opposed to only those with dispersive/diffuse uses); and Remove all criteria in Annex III – i.e. require all 1-10t substances to provide toxicological and ecotoxicological information. 3.2.1 Options for Extending the Information Requirements The development of options for extending the toxicological and ecotoxicological information in Annex VII has focussed on identifying the additional requirements from Annex VIII that may be of prime relevance for the purpose of clarifying whether or not a substance fulfils classification criteria Phase 2 1-10t Study: Final Options for Extending Information Requirements RPA | 27 coupled with additional information that may be of use to the setting of limit values and exposure limits. There are numerous combinations of options and sub-options that could in theory be considered but the study specification limits consideration to a maximum of five options for full assessment of costs and benefits. It has therefore been necessary to refine and structure the options by eliminating some on the basis of practicality including the potential for obviously excessive costs and acceptability combined with limited usefulness of the information. For example, applying the full information requirements of Annex VIII (as well as VII) to 1-10t substances would include a number of elements that do not provide useful additional information in the context of the 1-10t substances and would dramatically increase costs of providing information. Here, a number of the endpoints in Annex VIII provide additional information for carrying out a Chemical Safety Assessment (CSA). As a CSA is not required for 1-10t substances, information from all Annex VIII endpoints is surplus to requirements and hence the Commission has agreed that extending the information requirements to include all Annex VIII endpoints would not, therefore, represent a cost-effective means of refining the information requirements. Given the restricted number of options available, two options for extending information requirements based on the inclusion of selected Annex VIII endpoints have been developed. These two extended information options represent an increasing level of information (and also increasing cost and potential benefit). Thus the information options considered in the analysis are: Annex VII (the baseline): Current Annex VII toxicological and ecotoxicological information; Annex VII+: Current Annex VII toxicological and ecotoxicological information plus endpoints and requirements selected from Annex VIII to deliver additional classifications and information with the smallest possible likely increase in cost; Annex VII++: As Annex VII+ above but with the addition of certain key elements/changes from Annex VIII that may deliver further benefits in terms of identification of hazardous properties and substances with hazardous properties but would represent a more significant increase in costs. Approach used to determine composition of Extended Information Options Determining the composition of the Annex VII+ and VII++ options has required consideration of the merits of including each of the following human health and environmental endpoints/sections that currently apply to 10-100t substances under Annex VIII: Human Health Endpoints (Toxicology): 8.1 Skin irritation /skin corrosion; 8.2 Eye irritation; 8.3 Skin sensitisation; 8.4 Mutagenicity; 8.5 Acute toxicity; 8.6 Repeated dose toxicity; 8.7 Reproductive toxicity; 8.8 Toxico-kinetics Environmental Endpoints (Ecotoxicology): 9.1 Aquatic toxicity; 9.2 Degradation; 9.3. Fate and behaviour in the environment. When deciding which aspects of Annex VIII should and should not be included in the two extended information options, the overarching consideration has been the benefit of gathering the additional information for the 1-10t substances considering the opportunities that the information might provide for enhanced risk management. A key consideration here has been that, as described in Phase 2 1-10t Study: Final Options for Extending Information Requirements RPA | 28 Section 2, a CSA is not required for 1-10t substances and risk control is principally achieved by classification and labelling which, in turn, triggers requirements in relation to parallel regulation. In contrast, for the 10-100t substances (to which Annexes VII and VIII apply), the CSA is the key mechanism for identifying (and subsequently implementing) appropriate risk control and a number of the additional information elements that are included in Annex VIII are present specifically to provide the enhanced information required to perform a CSA for the >10t substances and not for the purpose of identifying further hazardous properties for classification and labelling. As well as considering the merits of additional information from inclusion of Annex VIII endpoints, we have also considered alterations to the use of information that already forms a part of Annex VII. This applies only to information that must already be gathered for the following three endpoints in Annex VII where this information could, in principle, be used to screen for PBT/vPvB properties (and a positive screening result would then require more information to allow assessment). Such screening is not currently required in the regulation as it applies to 1-10t substances because the requirement to screen and assess PBT/vPvB properties is contained within Annex XIII on CSA (which does not apply to the 1-10t substances): ready biodegradation in accordance with Section 9.2.1.1 of Annex VII; octanol-water partitioning coefficient experimentally determined in accordance with Section 7.8 of Annex VII (physico-chemical properties); and short-term aquatic toxicity in accordance with Section 9.1 of Annex VII. Annex I to this report describes the detailed reasoning behind the selection of endpoints for the Annex VII+ and VIII++ options, examining each section of the Annexes in turn. Table 3.1 (overleaf) summarises the options. 3.3 Combining the Annex III and Extended Information Options to a Final Five With three options for Annex III requirements and three options for information options, the total number of possible combinations is nine. One of these nine combinations (current Annex III requirements combined with current Annex VII requirements) comprises the baseline for the study and so is not an option in itself. This leaves eight combinations from which five must be selected. Table 3.2 identifies which combinations of Annex III and Information Options were selected for further analysis of costs and benefits (by agreement with the Commission). Table 3.2: Final Combinations of Options to Progress to Full Impact Assessment Annex III Options Information Options Current Annex VII Annex VII+ Do nothing Baseline No Remove diffuse/dispersive use criterion Yes Yes Remove all criteria Yes Yes Phase 2 1-10t Study: Final Options for Extending Information Requirements RPA | 29 Annex VII++ No Yes No Table 3.1: Summary of Extended Information Options REACH Annex Annex VII+ Section 8.1 Skin irritation Maintain as at present /skin corrosion Section 8.2 Eye Maintain as at present Irritation Section 8.3 Skin Maintain as at present Sensitisation Section 8.4 Maintain current approach (GMBact) Mutagenicity Section 8.5 Acute Maintain as at present Toxicity Section 8.6 Repeated Dose Toxicity Maintain as at present (no short repeated dose toxicity testing) Section 8.7 Reproductive Toxicity Section 8.8 Toxicokinetics Maintain as at present (no reproductive toxicity testing) Section 9.1 Aquatic Toxicity Assessment of the toxicokinetic behaviour of the substance in accordance with Section 8.8.1 Annex VIII may be carried out where a new requirement to screen for PBT/vPvB properties identifies a substance as a potential PBT/vPvB and this will be useful to assessment. Testing in accordance with Section 9.1.3 - short-term toxicity testing on fish would be undertaken: for any substances identified with a classification as hazardous to the aquatic environment by Annex VII++ As Annex VII+ Overview of Benefit of Additional Information N/A As Annex VII+ N/A As Annex VII+ N/A Extend to a two test battery (GMBact plus MNTvitro) Classification for acute oral toxicity in accordance with Section 8.5.1 of Annex VII triggers consideration of dermal and inhalation toxicity in accordance with Sections 8.5.2 and 8.5.3 of Annex VIII. Short term repeated dose toxicity in accordance with Section 8.6.1 of Annex VIII for substances identified by testing under 8.5.1 as Acute Tox 4. As Annex VII+ Enables the detection of a greater number of genotoxic substances Provides additional classifications and information for exposure assessments required to be undertaken by manufacturers and downstream users under parallel regulation. As above. As Annex VII+ Only required if contributes to assessment of PBT/vPvB – provided only for completeness. As Annex VII+ Enables the generation of PNECs for use by regulators and others in relation to assessing the need for action under parallel environmental regulation. Phase 2 1-10t Study: Final Options for Extending Information Requirements RPA | 30 N/A Section 9.2 Degradation Section 9.3. Fate and behaviour in the environment testing in accordance with Section 9.1 of Annex VII; and for any substances where screening for P and B in PBT/vPvB identifies that criteria for both P and B (or vP and vB) are met. information from the ready biodegradability test in Annex VII will be used to inform screening of P in PBT/vPvB; information on the octanol-water partitioning coefficient experimentally determined in accordance with Section 7.8 of Annex VII will be used to screen for B in PBT/vPvB; if the above screening for P and B identifies that a substance may meet the criteria for both P and B (or vP and vB), information will be gathered as per Section 9.1.3 of Annex VIII, short-term toxicity testing on fish (if it has not already been gathered as part of the option). This will be used to screen for T in PBT; if the above screening identifies the substance as a potential PBT or vPvB, any additional information to make an assessment will be gathered in accordance with Annex XIII of REACH. Maintain as at present (i.e. not required) As Annex VII+ Allows the detection of PBT/vPvB substances (where no detection occurs at present because PBT/vPvB assessment is a requirement of Annex XIII alone and this Annex does not apply to 1-10t substances) As Annex VII+ N/A Phase 2 1-10t Study: Final Options for Extending Information Requirements RPA | 31 4 Summary of Methods used to Analyse Options 4.1 Overview An Excel® based Monte Carlo simulation model has been developed to analyse and explore the options and the baseline (current requirements) in terms of the following five key performance measures: the number of substances with hazardous properties detected; the usefulness of the information generated on these substances in the context of the regulation of risks and risk management; the cost of registering the 1-10t substances (including the generation of information); the likely impact of registration costs at a company level considering that companies will be registering several substances (a portfolio) sometimes as part of a joint (consortium) registration and sometimes as an individual registration; and considering the above, to the extent possible, the likely impacts on competition and innovation. Comparison of the options with the baseline provides information on the incremental cost and benefit of changing requirements for 1-10t substances to fit that option. Uncertainties As with previous ex-ante studies on REACH (such as the various Business Impact Assessments – BIAs and studies on REACH benefits), the model and analysis must make predictions on the outcomes based on the best available information of what the outcomes are likely to be (rather than what they certainly are). Here, for example, REACH is based on the presumption that, due to the lack of data of on a significant percentage of substances, the existence of further hazardous substances is suspected but the exact number is not known. In other words, for those registrations yet to be completed (including the 1-10t substances), there is no certain knowledge concerning the number of these that possess hazardous properties and may be identified as such in the course of registration. It is important to note that there is also no certain knowledge on other factors including: The exact number of 1-10t substances; The exact number of substances that will be identified by QSARs and other evidence as priority substances (correctly or incorrectly) and will be required to generate toxicological and ecotoxicological information; The exact cost of generating the necessary toxicological and ecotoxicological information for those substances; The exact cost of producing registration dossiers for 1-10t substances; The exact number of companies that will be registering one or more substances in the 1-10t band and the size of those companies (micro, small, medium and large); and The exact number of registrants for each substance and the cost sharing arrangements that will be made between the companies registering (where there is more than one manufacturer/importer). REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 32 In order to provide an analysis, then, the modelling and simulation must rely on informed prediction of factors including the above to provide a best estimate of the five performance measures for each option and the baseline. The outputs of the model are, then, sensitive to the input values used. However, where previous assessments (such as the BIAs) predicted the total costs of the regulation as a whole, the analysis of options for the 1-10t substances is focussed on the incremental costs and benefits of the options when compared with the baseline (i.e. the difference between the options and the baseline). This makes the current analysis far less sensitive to the underlying inputs and assumptions on the factors described above because the same assumptions apply across all of the options including the baseline. Here, of the factors described above, only two differ from one option to the next. These are: the number of substances that will be required to generate the toxicological and ecotoxicological information required under the option; and the additional cost of any further information required under an information option. All of the other factors are consistent between the options and the baseline, making the analysis much less sensitive to these assumptions and inputs. Modelling Approach Applied In order to model the costs associated with the options (and the baseline) a Monte Carlo simulation approach has been applied to allow the full range and spread of costs to be examined rather than a simple average (which provides little information of use to exploring business impacts). Here, the costs of registering any given substance depend on a number of factors including (but not limited to): Whether there is already toxicological or ecotoxicological information on that substance or whether there is some or none; Whether that substance is identified by QSARs or other evidence as meeting one or more of the criteria in Annex III (or variants of in the options) and, hence, must generate the toxicological and ecotoxicological information in Annex VII (or variants of in the options); The properties of that substance. For example, whether the substance is a CMR/non-CMR, is acutely toxic, etc. (where this determines what further testing may be required under the options); The outcome of screening tests and, in particular, those for mutagenicity (where a positive result will require that further testing is undertaken); The number of companies registering that substance (which influences both the sharing of information costs in a SIEF and also the cost of administering a SIEF); Whether the registrants of that substance will all support a joint registration or whether one or more individual registrations will be submitted also; The size of the companies registering that substance (which determines the registration fees due and also allows exploration of the impacts on SMEs versus larger companies); and The volumes produced by each of the companies registering that substance (which has an influence on the impact of the costs on companies and downstream users because it provides an indication of the price increase per unit of manufacture). Clearly, different permutations of the above have different results in terms of the cost of registering different substances. In addition, the number of possible permutations is very large (a few thousand possibilities). Some permutations will result in relatively large costs of registration and some REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 33 relatively low costs. The Monte Carlo simulation model explores the different permutations, calculating and recording the costs associated with each. The probability of each permutation is governed by the individual probability of each factor. In the Monte Carlo simulation these probabilities have been derived by consideration of statistical data and, where not available, assumptions. When it is run, the Monte Carlo simulation model generates a series of ‘virtual registrations’ for substances. For each ‘virtual registration’, the model generates a permutation (using the probabilities mentioned above) and calculates the resulting cost for each of the registrants under each of the options (and the baseline). The model repeats this 20,000 times (once for every 1-10t substance expected to be registered) in each case recording the identity of the substance (as a numbered code), the identity of the registrants (as a numbered code) and the cost of registration for each of those registrants. In this way the model produces around 88,600 rows of data, each row giving the costs of registering a substance for an individual company under each of the options (and the baseline). These data have then been aggregated by company and also by substance. For the benefit of transparency, all of the assumptions and numbers underlying the modelling and probabilities for the Monte Carlo simulation are described in detail in Annex 2 of this report. These were supplied to and agreed by the Commission in advance so that the subsequent analysis can be based on an agreed set of numbers and assumptions. The following sections provide an overview of the key data and assumptions used for estimating the: number and nature of substances: estimation of the number and nature of hazardous properties within the population of 1-10t substances; number of substances requiring toxicological and ecotoxicological information: estimation of the number of substances that will be identified by QSARs and other evidence as priority substances and will be required to generate toxicological and ecotoxicological information; substance costs of testing and information: estimation of the cost of generating the necessary toxicological and ecotoxicological information for substances; substance registration costs: estimation of the costs of registration including dossier preparation, sharing of information, administration costs of joint registrations, fees, etc. aggregation of costs: manufacturer/importer. calculation of overall costs by substance and by 4.2 Number and Nature of Substances The starting point for the modelling has been information that describes the ‘population’ of 1-10t substances in terms of: The total number of 1-10t substances impacted by the options; The number of these substances possessing properties that are hazardous to human health or the environment or both and would be classified if information were available to make a classification; and REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 34 For the above substances, the nature of those hazardous properties given the spectrum of different properties and their relative significance (for example, the detection of a mutagen is likely to be more significant than the detection of a skin irritant). 4.2.1 Total number of 1-10 substances impacted It is estimated by ECHA that full registration for 20,000 unique phase-in substances will be submitted in the 1-10t band alone in/by the 2018 deadline. These are substances yet to be registered that will not also be registered in higher tonnage bands. In addition, 46 unique substances have already been fully registered in the 1-10t band only owing to their known C, M or R 1A/1B properties and the requirements to register these earlier (under Article 23(1)(a) of REACH). In addition to substances registered only in the 1-10t band, there will be some 1-10t registrations for substances also registered in higher tonnage bands (i.e.>10t per year). However, information equivalent to Annex VIII and above is already required for ALL of these substances. Accordingly, there is no effect or benefit from applying the options to these substances (as information in excess of that required under the options is already required and classifications communicated to downstream users and distributors). 4.2.2 Number of substances with hazardous properties Based on information from ECHA, the 20,000 1-10t substances have been divided into estimates of the number of substances with and without hazardous properties. For those substances predicted to have hazardous properties, data from the classification and labelling inventory (CLI) has been used to predict the number of substances that would be identified as meeting different classifications if all substances were subjected to toxicological and ecotoxicological testing (including in vivo testing for mutagenicity). Owing to the fact that the CLI database may contain multiple self-classifications for a number of substances, the CLI is not ideal for the purpose of predicting the likely hazardous properties of the 110t substances. However, the only alternative approach is to use entries for harmonised classifications on the CLI (to eliminate the influence of multiple classifications for the same substance). The list of substances for which a harmonised classification has been determined is relatively short (4,509 substances) compared with that of the full CLI (117,917) and, in addition, harmonisation has been prioritised towards those substances with the most hazardous properties. Thus, use of harmonised classifications alone for predicting the properties of the 1-10t substances is likely to exaggerate the number and nature of the hazardous properties. For these reasons, although still not perfect, data from the full CLI has been used for prediction of properties of the 110t substances21. 21 Note: The original analyses undertaken for the BIA were based on a 2005 ECB spreadsheet on the number of substances with certain R-phrases in the New Chemicals Database (NCD). We have attempted to cross check estimates with those from the ECB analysis of the NCD but it is not possible to extract this information from the data presented in 2005. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 35 4.3 Number of Substances Requiring Toxicological Ecotoxicological Information under the Options and 4.3.1 Overview Having predicted the number of substances that would be identified as meeting different classifications if all substances were subjected to toxicological and ecotoxicological testing (including in vivo testing for mutagenicity), the Monte Carlo model estimates the number of substances that would be required to generate the full toxicological and ecotoxicological information appropriate to each option (and the baseline) which, in turn, determines the number of hazardous substances and properties that will be detected under each option. It should be noted that none of the options under examination involve in vivo mutagenicity testing, only options cover all of the substances and some options include additional tests. Thus, options vary in terms of: The test endpoints included and the screening/testing strategies applied to substances required to gather toxicological and ecotoxicological information (information options VII, VII+ and VII++); and The number of substances actually required to generate toxicological and ecotoxicological information (the Annex III options). In relation to the latter (the number of substances required to generate information), under the current requirements only “priority substances between 1 and 10 tonnes” are required to generate toxicological and ecotoxicological information. These priority substances are “substances for which it is predicted (i.e. by the application of (Q)SARs or other evidence) that they are likely to meet the criteria for”: classification as C, M or R 1A/1B or PBT/vPvB; or any health or environmental hazard classes or differentiations under CLP and have a dispersive or diffuse use. The starting point for modelling of the baseline and Annex III options is the estimation of the numbers of “substances for which it is predicted (i.e. by the application of (Q)SARs or other evidence) that they are likely to meet the criteria for classification”. The model considers ‘evidence’ in the following order: Step 1: Existing test information – some substances will already have some test results on some endpoints. The model estimates this number and therein the numbers of substances likely to be identified as being likely to meet criteria for CMR 1A/1B and PBT/vPvB based on this existing information. The substances that are not identified as such are then considered in Steps 2 and 3; Step 2: Application of Read Across (RA) - RA is a technique used to predict endpoint information for one substance by using data for the same endpoint from another substance which is considered to be similar in some way (on the basis of structural similarity and similar properties and/or activities). The model estimates the number of substances for which information from RA might be applied. It then estimates the number of substances REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 36 likely to be identified as likely CMRs 1A/1B, PBTs/vPvBs or other HH or ENV classifications; and Step 3: Application of (Quantitative) Structure Activity Relationships ((Q)SARs) - A SAR is a qualitative relationship that relates a (sub)structure to the presence or absence of a property or activity of interest. A QSAR is a mathematical model (often a statistical correlation) relating one or more quantitative parameters derived from a chemical structure to a quantitative measure of a property or activity. The model estimates the number of substances for which information may be derived from (Q)SARs and, therein, the number of substances likely to be identified as likely CMRs 1A/1B, PBTs/vPvBs or other HH or ENV classifications. 4.3.2 Step 1: Number of substances with existing test information For some 1-10t phase-in substances there will already be some data available on some endpoints and this will provide information to screen against the Annex III criteria. In terms of the number of substances with full test information, RPAs 2006 Revised BIA drew numbers from the 2006 ECB assumptions on the percentage of substances with a complete data set. These, in turn, were mainly drawn from the original Business Impact Assessment of the White Paper (which also drew on data from an ECB and a Danish Study). All of these studies assumed that 17% of 1-10t substances have a complete set of Annex VII data (and others have none). In the 2012 Phase 1 analysis, these figures were altered in analogy to data on actual percentages of the higher tonnage substances having some but not all data. Drawing on and combining estimates from all of these sources, the Monte Carlo model used in this (current) study assumes the following (where more detail is provided in Annex 2, Section A2.2.3): 17% of the 1 to 10 tonne substances have data on all Annex VII endpoints; 13% of the 1 to 10 tonne substances have data on some endpoints; the remainder (70%) have no data on human health and environmental endpoints. Applying these percentages to the predicted number of substances with different types of hazardous properties provides an estimate of the number of substances that would satisfy each of the criteria in Annex III and, hence, the number of substances that would be required to generate toxicological and ecotoxicological information under the options that apply Annex (or aspects of). 4.3.3 Steps 2 and 3: Application of Read Across (RA) and QSARs For the remaining substances (those with little or no information from testing22) information is assumed to be sought from the application of QSARs and other information such as Read Across (RA) as per Annex III. However, it is important to note that Annex III does not specify in detail what is required in relation to these and other tools. This issue was highlighted early in the study’s timeframe and both the Commission and ECHA have agreed that the requirements of Annex III probably need to be specified in more detail to ensure that the prioritisation process achieves what 22 The 70% with no information from testing and those of the 13% where there is some testing information but none of that information suggests a classification. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 37 is intended (to the extent possible given the technical limitations of the tools available). The Commission and ECHA agreed to provide guidance to 1 - 10 t registrants on this issue in 2015. For the purposes of the analysis (and the Monte Carlo model), based on a review of the work undertaken in 2006 by RPA for DG Enterprise23 and also in view of the current wording of Annex III, the following interpretation has been applied: Screening Tools are used (without expert judgement): Annex III is applied based on existing data and QSAR-screening and similar ‘quick scans’ (such as RA) without the use of expert judgement24. There are many freely available tools that might be used for this purpose with the main tools currently available being the Analog Identification Methodology (AIM), Danish (Q)SAR database, Toxmatch, and the OECD QSAR Toolbox. Manufacturers and importers would obtain one or more such tools and apply them in-house or commission a QSAR consultancy to obtain results from similar/the same QSAR tools; A positive decision rule applies: to be identified as a priority 1-10t substance, there must be positive evidence of hazardous properties; and Absence of evidence equates to absence of effects: By extension of the above, the absence of evidence is taken as absence of effects25. This includes cases/substances where there is no existing test information and no prediction by QSARs (or other approaches) can be made (for example, because a substance is out of the ‘domain’ of a QSAR model). The latter substances would not be 1-10t priority substances (and no new toxicological or ecotoxicological information would be generated under REACH). Step 2: Application of Read Across (RA) Reviewing available information, the 2012 Phase 1 study on 1-10t substances made tentative conclusions on the ability of RA to provide information on a range of test endpoints. This review suggested that RA might be applied to around 11% of substances. Accordingly the Monte Carlo model assumes that RA can be successfully applied to identify the hazardous properties of 11% of substances for the purposes of the screening for Annex III. In other words, RA can be successfully applied (and likely properties and HH and ENV classifications can be predicted) for 11% of substances which currently have little or no information. 23 As part of the Technical Assistance for REACH Impact Assessment Updates focussing on the then (2005) Common Position Text and also the Recommendation for the Second Reading (Sacconi, (2006 : ***II Recommendation for Second Reading, Session document of the European Parliament, Final A6-0352/2006, dated 13.10.2006). 24 The alternative would be robust QSARs of the sort described in Annex XI 1.3. Such QSARs would be expensive to apply owing, in part, to the need for expert judgement. According to ECHA representatives (pers comm, 2014) this makes such QSARs potentially as costly or more costly to apply than undertaking the equivalent in vitro test. This would not be consistent with the objective of Article 12 and Annex III to reduce the burden on low volume substance manufacturers. 25 The absence of evidence of effects is not generally otherwise accepted as evidence of absence of effects. See for example Danish experience on regulatory use of QSARs https://echa.europa.eu/documents/10162/13639/qsarws_wedebye_tule_en.pdf REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 38 Step 3: Application of (Quantitative) Structure Activity Relationships ((Q)SARs) QSARs are assumed to be applied to all substances with little or no information and for which RA cannot be successfully applied. A detailed review of QSARs and their applicability to (and adequacy for) various information requirements under REACH was undertaken as part of the Phase 1 study in 2012. In that study (and in the 2006 study for DG Enterprise) two key factors were considered in relation to the applicability and accuracy of QSAR predictions. These were: QSAR domain: The domain of applicability specifies a group of molecular structures for which the model is applicable. For molecule structures outside of this domain the model is not applicable; and QSAR Performance: the extent to which the QSAR for a given endpoint is able to correctly predict outcomes. In both the 2006 and 2012 studies, the focus of the latter factor (performance) was on the correct identification/detection of substances with hazardous properties (true positives) as opposed to the incorrect attribution of hazardous properties to a substance not possessing these properties (false positives). This is because the emphasis of these studies was on the use of QSARs as an alternative to in vitro and/or in vivo testing rather than screening. For this, Phase 2 study, the emphasis of is on the use of QSARs for screening of substances and the determination of whether they are ‘priority 1-10t substances’. This means that there is a need to better consider the number of false positives (and false negatives) as well as the true positives (and true negatives) by breaking ‘performance’ down into its composite factors of sensitivity and specificity where: sensitivity expresses the extent to which a given QSAR for an endpoint is able to correctly identify substances with hazardous properties (for that endpoint) - this is expressed as a percentage substances correctly identified; and specificity expresses the extent to which a given QSAR for an endpoint is able to correctly identify substances without hazardous properties (for that endpoint) - this is expressed as a percentage substances correctly identified as non-hazardous for that endpoint; and Where possible, percentages applied in the Monte Carlo model are based on consideration of actual data on typical QSAR performance for different endpoints. Where data for an endpoint are not available from such studies, assumed values have been used based on the ‘poor, fair, good’ performance indications that were the outcome of the aforementioned review undertaken for the Phase 1 study. In terms of QSAR domain, the Monte Carlo model applies the percentages derived in the Phase 1 detailed review of QSAR methods (more detail is provided in Annex 2, Section A2.3.3). REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 39 4.3.4 Resulting estimates of the number of substances requiring toxicological and ecotoxicological information Applying all of the modelling steps set out above provides information on the number of substances likely to be required to generate toxicological and ecotoxicological information under each of the options and the baseline. Here, options vary between one another and the baseline depending on the extent to which substances satisfy the criteria in Annex III and, in particular, whether the QSARs or other information indicates that one or more of the criteria are satisfied. For options involving the removal of Annex III and it’s criteria, all substances are required to generate toxicological and ecotoxicological information. The numbers of substances requiring toxicological and ecotoxicological information under each option and the baseline are provided in Table 4.1. The substances identified are those that meet the following criteria in each case: baseline – substances identified by the application of QSARs or other evidence as likely to meet classification as CMR1A/1B or PBT/vPvB and substances with diffuse/dispersive uses (assumed to be 40% of substances) likely to meet any other human health or environmental classification; Annex III no diffuse/dispersive option - substances identified by the application of QSARs or other evidence as likely to meet classification as CMR1A/1B or PBT/vPvB and all other substances likely to meet any other human health or environmental classification; and no Annex III option – all substances required to gather information. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 40 Table 4.1: Numbers of substances requiring toxicological and ecotoxicological information by application of the Annex III options No Annex III No diffuse/dispersive use criterion in Annex III Availability Type of hazardous properties Number of CMRs Potential Number of CMRs Potential Number of of existing (HH – Human Health Substances PBTs/ Substances PBTs/ Substances test ENV – Environmental) to Annex vPvBs to Annex vPvBs to Annex information VII VII VII Test With HH and ENV properties 578 16 12 578 16 12 336 information With HH (not ENV) properties 1,700 47 34 1,700 47 34 989 available on With ENV (not HH) properties 204 0 4 204 0 4 117 all endpoints Substances with no properties 918 0 0 252 0 0 252 matching any HH or ENV class Test With HH and ENV properties 442 12 9 412 12 9 213 information With HH (not ENV) properties 1,300 36 26 1,212 36 26 625 available on With ENV (not HH) properties 156 0 3 67 0 3 47 some Substances with no properties 702 0 0 163 0 0 128 endpoints matching any HH or ENV class No With HH and ENV properties 2,380 66 47 1,536 42 21 958 information With HH (not ENV) properties 7,000 193 140 4,300 121 61 2,727 available With ENV (not HH) properties 840 0 17 507 0 8 322 Substances with no properties 3,780 0 0 1,632 0 0 1,231 matching any HH or ENV class Total With HH and ENV properties 3,400 94 68 2,526 70 42 1,507 With HH (not ENV) properties 10,000 276 200 7,212 204 121 4,341 With ENV (not HH) properties 1,200 0 24 778 0 15 486 Substances with no properties 5,400 0 0 2,047 0 0 1,611 matching any HH or ENV class REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 41 Baseline CMRs Potential PBTs/ vPvBs 11 33 0 10 28 3 0 0 9 26 0 9 26 3 0 0 38 111 0 19 57 7 0 0 58 170 0 38 111 13 0 0 4.4 Cost of Information Gathering 4.4.1 Cost of Standard Information Required under the Options All substances identified by the model as requiring toxicological and ecotoxicological information under the relevant Annex III scenario must gather the information appropriate to the Information Option (current Annex VII, Annex VII+ or Annex VII++). The costs applied to the standard information requirements (and further information as required) have been drawn from the 2012 CEFIC testing catalogue which lists the average cost of testing for each endpoint. For costs not included in the CEFIC test cost catalogue the following have been applied: Cost of QSARs for Annex III – the Phase 1 study estimated the costs at around €1,500 per substance for the QSAR models without expert interpretation. This was based on discussions with laboratories providing QSAR information but equally could apply to inhouse assessments using QSAR software which might be expected to take around 1.5 days. When undertaking new QSAR/RA work for the purpose of assessing the substance against the criteria in Annex III it is assumed that there is no duplication of effort between registrants and that a lead registrant takes on the task (but the cost is shared between the registrants as per the testing costs); Cost of Screening for PBT/vPvB Properties – PBT/vPvB screening requires cross checking the results of tests with the screening criteria in Annex XIII. The Monte Carlo model assumes this would cost around €500 per substance (i.e. a half person day). Further testing for PBT/vPvB Assessment – further testing and assessment applies to those substances identified as potential PBT/vPvB by screening. The costs of testing and information may vary considerably. The Monte Carlo model assumes that the cost of further information is €20,000. The information costs for the standard information elements are summarised in Table 4.2. Cost of purchasing existing test data In the case of substances where information on some or all endpoints in Annex VII is already available, other registrants of the substance will have to buy access to that information from the owner of that information. The Monte Carlo model assumes that the owner of that information is one of the registrants and that the current value of that information is equivalent to the sum of the costs of the relevant tests in the CEFIC testing catalogue. In previous studies such costs were not considered as they represent a transfer payment between companies that make up ‘industry’; thus the net cost of the information is zero viewed across ‘industry’ as a whole. The (new) Monte Carlo model, however, seeks also to examine the impact of costs on companies. The need to make such transfer payments may be important to those having to make them (particularly SMEs) and so it is important to reflect them. Costs of existing test information are still a net zero at an ‘industry’ level because the payment made is credited to another company. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 42 Table 4.2: Costs of Testing and Information Cost component Cost of QSARs for Annex III Annex VII 8.1. Skin irritation/ corrosion - In vitro skin corrosion/irritation Annex VII 8.2. Eye irritation - In vitro eye irritation Annex VII 8.3. Skin sensitisation - In vivo LLNA Annex VII 8.4.1 GMbact: gene mutation test in bacteria (Ames test) Annex VIII 8.4.2 CAbvitro, in vitro chromosome aberration test Annex VIII 8.4.2 MNTvitro, in vitro micronucleus test Annex VIII 8.4.2 MNTvitro/CAbvitro (weighted average based on % conducting MNTvitro) Annex VIII 8.4.3 GMvitro:gene mutation assay in mammalian cells Annex IX 8.4.4 Cytvivo:cytogenetic assay in experimental animals Annex VIII 8.4.3 GMvivo:gene mutation assay in experimental animals - Mouse micronucleus assay Annex VII 8.5. Acute toxicity - Oral toxicity Annex VIII 8.5.2. Acute toxicity - Toxicity via Inhalation Annex VIII 8.5.3. Acute toxicity - Toxicity via Dermal routes Annex VIII 8.6.1. Repeat dose toxicity - Short term (Oral) Annex VII 9.1.1. Aquatic Toxicity - Invertebrate - short-term Annex VII 9.1.2. Aquatic Toxicity - Algal - short-term Annex VIII 9.1.3. Aquatic Toxicity - Fish – short-term Annex VII 9.2.1.1. Degradation - Biotic - Ready biodeg Cost of Screening for PBT/vPvB Properties Further testing for PBT/vPvB Assessment (once identified by screening) Cost (€) € 1,500 € 2,580 € 1,552 € 7,117 € 3,465 € 20,080 € 16,518 € 17,231 € 17,615 € 27,730 € 12,620 € 1,486 € 12,267 € 2,486 € 52,925 € 5,232 € 5,806 € 4,845 € 3,705 € 500 € 20,000 4.4.2 Cost of Information on Mutagenicity under the Options All substances completing the full toxicological and ecotoxicological information requirements under the baseline and the further information options are required to gather data in relation to the Annex VII gene mutation screening test (GMBact) (and the CAbvitro/MNTvitro in the case of the Annex VII++ Option). In the event of there being no positive results in the screening test(s), it is concluded that the substance is non-genotoxic and no further testing is required. However, in the event of a (true or false) positive result in screening, substances are required to gather additional data from Annex VIII and above according to ECHA “Guidance on Information Requirements and Chemical Safety Assessment - Chapter R.7a: Endpoint Specific Guidance” To attribute the appropriate cost for additional information, the Monte Carlo model considers substances predicted in the model to have CMR 1A/1B properties and those that are not (nonCMRs). Sensitivity data26 for the different tests are applied to the numbers of CMRs to identify the outcome of each test in terms of the number of true positives (TPs) and false negatives (FNs) 26 From the UK Committee on Mutagenicity of Chemicals in Food, Consumer Products and the Environment (COM) (2011) Guidance on a Strategy for Genotoxicity Testing Of Chemical Substances. http://www.iacom.org.uk/guidstate/documents/COMGuidanceFINAL.pdf (itself based on Kirkland, D., Aardema, M., Henderson, L., Müller, L. (2005): Evaluation of the ability of a battery of three in vitro genotoxicity tests to discriminate rodent carcinogens and non-carcinogens: I. Sensitivity, specificity and relative predictivity, Mutation Research - Genetic Toxicology and Environmental Mutagenesis, 584 (1-2), pp. 1-256) REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 43 identified. Specificity data are applied to the numbers of non-CMRs to identify the number of false positives (FPs) and true negatives (TNs). In terms of the further studies that are required for substances showing a positive result in the screening, there are a number of combinations depending on the results obtained from each successive test suggested by the ITS. The results can be predicted statistically by applying the relevant sensitivity/specificity value to the outcome of the previous test. In this way the Monte Carlo model uses a cascade approach to predict how many substances are likely to carry out which combination of further mutagenicity tests and costs are applied. 4.5 Substance Registration Costs 4.5.1 Overview The cost of generating toxicological and ecotoxicological information represents only one element of the costs of registration. To these information costs must be added: Registration Dossier costs - the costs of drafting and finalising a registration dossier for submission; Cost of producing study summaries – which varies from information option to information option (because of differences in the information generated by different options) and outcome in terms of any further mutagenicity testing and/or PBT/vPvB assessment; Joint registration and SIEF administrative costs - where there is more than one registrant of the substance, the costs of liaising with the other registrants as part of sharing information on the substance (Substance Information Exchange Fora – SIEFs), sharing the costs of that information, preparing the registration dossier and other technical and administrative liaison costs; Costs of revising Substance Safety Data Sheets (SDSs) – where there is a change in classification for a substance in the light of any new information generated; Costs of proposals for animal tests – where there is a need to undertake animal testing by virtue of following the ITS for mutagenicity or for PBT/vPvB assessment; and Registration fees – which vary by size of enterprise (micro, small, medium and large). Owing to the fact that registrations for 1-10t substances are substantially different from the much larger dossiers that must be produced for higher tonnage substances (which, include, for example, a CSA) there is little or nothing that can be drawn from the experience of registrations submitted for the higher tonnage substances (>100t per year). The following sub-sections provide a description of the cost estimation and application of costs in the Monte Carlo model. With the exception of fees (which are fixed by Regulation), the cost of each component has been estimated by consideration of likely time and effort for each element. Some of the cost elements described above will be similar from one substance to another but most will vary depending on a range of factors including the extent to which further testing has been undertaken (and must be summarised), the number of other manufacturers and importers (M/Is) and the size of the M/I enterprise. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 44 4.5.2 Registration Dossier costs Registration dossier costs relate to the general compilation of material for the dossier including physico-chemical information, general administration of the submission and liaison with ECHA. The costs of providing study summaries in the dossier are considered separately as these vary depending on the information gathered for a substance. Two levels of information are relevant for the registrations of 1-10t substances; registrations for substances needing only to provide physicochemical information and registrations for substances providing full toxicological and ecotoxicological information. For both levels, the Monte Carlo model distinguishes between joint registrations (by a consortium of manufacturers and or importers - M/Is) and individual registrations (by single M/Is). The latter may occur either where there is only one M/I of a substance or in situations where one or more members of a consortium decide to make a separate (individual) submission of their own. The Monte Carlo model also distinguishes between dossiers compiled and submitted by M/Is of different sizes, with separate costs applied for micro, small, medium and large enterprises on the broad assumption that in-house expertise and experience is less developed in smaller companies and this affects the time taken to compile and submit a dossier (and increases the costs). 4.5.3 Cost of producing study summaries The total cost of producing study summaries for presentation in the dossier depends on the number and nature of the testing studies undertaken. In the Monte Carlo model, these are calculated alongside the costs of testing as an additional cost of summarising the results of the test. All costs are based on estimated time for a toxicologist (whether in-house or consultant) at €1,000 per day. 4.5.4 Joint registration and SIEF administrative costs Joint registration and SIEF administrative costs are associated with time spent by each M/I when engaging with other registrants on shared information (as part of SIEFs) and also on the preparation of the dossier. Costs applied are as follows: Cost of engaging on information (applies to each registrant) = € 1,000 per M/I registering; and Cost of engaging on dossier preparation (applies to each registrant in a consortium) = € 750 per M/I jointly registering. For registrations that only include only physico-chemical information, costs are 80-90% of the above. 4.5.5 Costs of revising Substance Safety Data Sheets (SDSs) In the event that additional information under REACH results in a change in classification for a substance, there is a need to update the SDS for the substance. The Monte Carlo model applies a cost of €500 per substance for updating the SDS. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 45 4.5.6 Costs of proposals for animal tests Before animal tests are carried out a proposal for animal testing must be submitted to ECHA. The Monte Carlo model applies a cost of €500 per proposal per substance. 4.5.7 Registration fees Registration fees and charges that apply to different sizes of enterprise are established under Commission Regulation27. The fees relevant to registration of 1-10t substances are provided as Table 4.3. Under Article 74(2) of REACH these fees do not apply when full toxicological and ecotoxicological data are provided and this is accounted for in the Monte Carlo model. Table 4.3: Registration fees for 1-10t substances (€ per M/I per substance) Individual Micro enterprises € 86 Small enterprises € 600 Medium enterprises € 1,114 Large enterprises € 1,714 Joint € 64 € 450 € 835 € 1,285 4.6 Aggregation of costs using the simulation The overall cost of registration for a substance depends on a number of factors where these include: whether (and how much) toxicological and ecotoxicological information is required (or not); the number of manufacturers and importers (M/Is) submitting a registration for the substance; the number of these M/Is that will be part of a joint submission and the number that will submit an individual submission; and the size of the M/I enterprise(s) registering a substance. To provide an assessment of costs and impact, the Monte Carlo model considers one substance at a time, calculating costs and impact using a simulation that describes the likelihood of the different situations, factors, events and M/I joint/individual registration composition for each substance. A full description is provided in Annex 2, Section A2.6.1) however, in simple terms, for each substance the modelled simulation carries out the following steps in order: Step 1: Property profile and pathway - the Monte Carlo model generates a profile and pathway through registration and information according to the option. This profile is developed probabilistically using the data and assumptions already described in relation to substance properties which dictates: 27 whether a substance must generate toxicological and ecotoxicological information under each of the options; Regulation No 340/2008 of 16 April 2008, as amended by the Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) No 254/2013 of 20 March 2013. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 46 Step 2: Number of M/Is registering - the Monte Carlo model allocates a number of M/Is registering the same substance; Step 3: Size of M/Is registering - having assigned a number of M/Is to the substance in Step 2, the Monte Carlo model then assigns a code denoting the size of each of the M/Is registering the substance (micro, small, medium or large). This is done in different ways for different substances and registrants depending on whether there is existing test information on the substance according to the modelled outcomes of Step 1: 28 the cost of generating the information for an option for that substance considering the available information and the need to purchase any existing test information from the owner versus generate new information; whether a substance meets any of the criteria requiring further studies for mutagenicity and/or PBT/vPvB assessment and, therein, the costs of providing that information (and summarising it in a dossier). For substances for which information on all current Annex VII endpoints already exists the modelled simulation assumes that the first registrant (or only registrant in the case of substances where there is only one M/I) owns that information and that this M/I is a large enterprise; For substances for which information on some Annex VII endpoints already exists the modelled simulation assumes that the first registrant (or only registrant in the case of substances where there is only one M/I) owns that information and that there is a 75% chance that this M/I is a large enterprise and a 25% chance that it of medium size; and For all other M/Is registering (and for all substances for which there is no information), the Monte Carlo model assigns a size group to each of the M/Is on the basis of probability. Here, logically, the probability that an M/I may be micro, small, medium or large is a function of the numbers of M/Is of each different size expected to submit registration dossiers for 1-10t substances and the average number of 110t substances to be registered by each (the portfolio size). Step 4: Joint versus individual registration submitted – where there is only one M/I the registration for the substance is, by default, an individual registration. Where there is more than one M/I the Monte Carlo model determines whether all manufacturers will submit a joint registration or whether the consortium will break into both joint and individual registrations. The simulation assumes that in 70% of cases all M/Is submit a single joint registration. This leaves a 30% probability of there being a joint registration plus one or more individual registrations for a substance28. The simulation assumes that, where this occurs for a substance, between 20% and 30% of the M/Is registering that substance will submit individual submissions and the remainder will submit jointly. For each substance, the This is higher than for registrations in 2010 for >1000t substances. This is to reflect the fact that speciality chemicals may comprise a more significant proportion of the number of substances in the 1-10t band and MIs may not wish to share information on the specialised (and hence potentially commercially sensitive) uses of substances. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 47 Monte Carlo simulation model randomly selects a percentage value between these two ranges (20-30%). Applying the above steps, the modelled simulation allocates the appropriate cost to the individual and/or joint registration of the substance accounting for the size of the M/Is (which affects the registration dossier costs), the number of M/Is (which affects the costs of SIEFs and administration of the joint registration) and the property profile and pathway of the substance (which affects costs of testing and information, updating the SDS, proposals for animal tests, study summaries). Where there is more than one M/I registering a substance, some costs are shared between all registrants regardless of whether it is a joint registration or a mixture of joint and one or more individual registrations. These costs comprise testing and information costs, participation in SIEFs, study summaries and SDS costs. Where there is a joint registration, registration dossier submission costs are shared between the members of the consortium only and where there are individual registrations the appropriate individual registration cost applies. Where test information exists, the cost of access to this information is shared between all but the first registrant (who is assumed to own the information). All cost sharing between members of the consortium is allocated on the basis of the tonnes produced by each manufacturer. Finally, the appropriate fee is allocated to each manufacturer. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 48 5 Cost Estimation 5.1 Approach to Estimation 5.1.1 Monte Carlo Outputs Applying the approaches, data and assumptions described in Section 4.1, the Monte Carlo simulation produces around 88,600 rows of data on the registration of 20,000 ‘virtual’ 1-10t substances. Each row of data records the cost of registering an individual substance (under the baseline and each option) for each individual M/I. As the assumptions and data underpinning the Monte Carlo modelling allow for between one and 15 MIs of each substance, there can be anything between one and 15 rows of data for the registration of an individual substance with each row providing information on the: identity of the MI (as a numbered code); size of the MI (micro, small, medium or large); identity of the substance being registered by the MI (as a numbered code); volume of that substance currently produced by that MI (always between 1 and 10t29); cost of the registering that substance (under the baseline and each option); other useful descriptors (such as whether mutagenicity tests or PBT assessment was required for that substance, etc.) Because the Monte Carlo simulation provides information in this way it is a powerful tool for assessing the costs of registration (under the baseline and the option) at either a substance level or a company level. Substance Level When the 88,600 rows of data are ordered and grouped by the identity of the substance (using pivot tables), total values for the registration of each substance are equal to the totals across each of the MIs registering that substance. Here, as noted above, each row of data provides information describing the volumes of production and cost of registration for each individual MI registering that substance and there can be anything between one and 15 rows of data for each substance. So, at a substance level, it is relatively simple to use data analysis tools (such as pivot tables) to group the data and provide information on the total costs of registering each substance, the total volumes produced across all MIs, etc. Company Level When the 88,600 rows of data are ordered and grouped by the identity of the MIs (using pivot tables), for each MI, each row of data provides information on the costs of registering each of the 110t substances in the portfolio of that MI. This makes it possible to examine the cost implications at 29 The Monte Carlo simulation applies an normal inverse distribution with a mean of 8 and a standard deviation of 1.5. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 49 the level of each individual MI, either at the level of each individual substance in the portfolio of that MI or, when totalled across all substances registered by that MI, the cost implications across all substances in the portfolio. As the Monte Carlo simulation also records information on the size of each enterprise, it is also possible to separate out and view these data by size of MI and, therein, assess the relative impact on SMEs versus larger enterprises. This, in turn, provides enhanced information for the assessment of less quantifiable business impacts such as on competition and innovation. 5.1.2 Costs and Receptors Business Impacts are considered in more detail in Section 6. This section restricts itself to analysis of the raw data from the Monte Carlo simulation and using it to estimate the underlying costs. At the most basic level, the economic costs of the options (and the baseline) comprise: The cost of registering substances under REACH; and Where the cost of registering certain substances is unsupportable on the grounds of financial cost (and/or its properties render it unsuitable for continued use), the cost of withdrawing those substances from the market. Two major groups of operators will incur such costs: Manufacturers and Importers (MIs); and Downstream Users (DUs). The types of cost incurred by each are most conveniently considered in terms of: MI direct costs of registration –the costs of registering substances will be incurred initially by MIs registering those substances. A proportion of these costs will be absorbed by the MIs themselves (representing the MI costs of registration) and a proportion will be passed down the supply chain (to downstream users) as, for example, an increase in product price; DU indirect costs of registration: linked to the above, DUs will incur an increase in costs that is proportional to the cost of registration not absorbed by the MIs themselves; MI costs of withdrawal: where a substance is not registered and is withdrawn from the market MIs will lose any profit that would otherwise have been made in the absence of the Regulation; and DU costs of withdrawal: where a substance is not registered and is withdrawn from the market by MIs, DUs will incur costs associated with the need to reformulate or otherwise adjust their business to cope with the withdrawal. These costs would not be incurred in the absence of the Regulation. The general approach used for the calculation of all of these costs begins with consideration of the raw data from the Monte Carlo simulation which provides information on the hypothetical cost of registering all substances. This, in turn, provides information on which substances might be withdrawn because registration is unsupportable financially. Once these are identified, it is possible to divide the raw data from the Monte Carlo simulation into two: One data set capturing all of the substances to be withdrawn from the market (under each option); and one data set capturing all of the substances to be registered (under each option). REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 50 In this way, the analysis is divided into calculation of: the predicted costs of registering substances that can be supported (to MIs and DUs); and the costs of withdrawing those substances that cannot be supported (to MIs and DUs). 5.1.3 Hypothetical cost of registering all substances As noted in Section 5.1, the first consideration has been the hypothetical cost of registering all substances where this informs consideration of the extent to which substances are likely to be withdrawn from the market owing to the cost of registration. Aggregating the cost data produced by the Monte Carlo simulation across all substances and MIs, Table 5.1 provides the total hypothetical costs of registering all substances and the average cost of registration per substance and also per tonne across all substances. All costs are assumed to be incurred over the four year period between 2015 and the registration deadline (2018) and are reported as Present Values (PV) discounted at 4%. Costs per tonne of production are based on production over the same four year period (and so the tonnage denominator reflects four years of production of each substance by all MIs producing the substance). Table 5.1: Hypothetical registration costs under the options (all values expressed as Present Value over 4 years at 4%) Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII - Annex VII+ Annex VII+ Annex No No Annex - No - No Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/Dis III Diffuse/Dis III Diffuse/Dis persive persive persive Use Trigger Use Trigger Use Trigger in Annex III in Annex III in Annex III Total costs across all € 493.8 € 644.4 € 896.9 € 662.6 € 929.0 € 1,084.0 substances (€ millions) Average hypothetical cost of substance € 24,690 € 32,220 € 44,845 € 33,130 € 46,450 € 54,200 registration per substance (€) Average hypothetical cost of substance € 225 € 303 € 433 € 312 € 449 € 530 registration per tonne (€) 5.1.4 Substances withdrawn from the market The average values provided in Table 5.1 suggest a cost of €225 per tonne on average under the baseline and between €303 and €530 per tonne on average per substance across the options. The averages, however, conceal considerable variation in the magnitude of costs between substances and also between MIs. Here, registration costs vary significantly from one substance to another where the magnitude of the total costs for a substance depends on a number of factors, the main ones being: The test information that must be submitted – which varies from one option to another; REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 51 The number of MIs registering a given substance – anything between one and 15. This does not vary from one option to another but does govern both the extent to which information costs can be shared between MIs and also the administration costs for registration (joint and individual); and The size of the enterprises registering the substance – which does not vary from one option to another but does govern the fees and charges that apply considering the information supplied as part of a registration. Similarly, at the level of individual MIs, overall registration costs vary from one MI to another with the magnitude of costs depending on: The number of substances in a company’s portfolio – which affects the total costs of registration across all substances registered; The testing and information required for those substances – which varies from one option to another; The number of other MIs also registering those substances – which affects the extent to which information costs can be shared with other MIs and also the administration costs for registration of those substances. Figure 5.1 provides a percentage frequency plot of the hypothetical cost of registration of all 20,000 substances expressed per tonne of production across all MIs. As can be seen from Figure 5.1, hypothetical costs of registration can exceed values of €2,100 per tonne for some substances. In fact, the axis has been adjusted for clarity and the highest value in the raw Monte Carlo simulation data is around €3,800 per tonne (for two substances under the Annex VII++ option). More typically the Monte Carlo data suggests that costs per substance are likely to be of a much lower magnitude. The peaks observed at the lower end of the spectrum for all cases where Annex III criteria (or aspects of) are retained are mostly associated with substances submitting physico-chemical data alone but also some substances submitting full information where factors (including lower testing triggered under the information options combined with a larger number of manufacturers and total tonnage) act to reduce the cost per tonne to a similarly low level. Identifying Substances Withdrawn from the Market Regarding withdrawal owing to unsupportable costs of registration, clearly, the decision to withdraw a substance depends on a number of factors of which the most important are likely to be the cost of registration, the value of the product to each of the MIs and, hence, the ratio between both. In reality, the relationship between the cost of the registration and the decision to withdraw the substance is not straightforward and depends on multiple other factors. Of the known factors that can be estimated in an analysis such as this, only the cost of registration is ‘known’ with some degree of certainty. As such, in order to account for withdrawal at all within the analysis, one must rely on a proxy for the point at which registration is likely to become unsustainable on cost grounds. For this analysis, as indicated in Figure 5.1, a cut-off point of €750 per tonne has been used to differentiate between substances to be withdrawn and substances to be registered under the options (and the baseline). REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 52 Figure 5.1: Hypothetical cost of registration per substance per tonne (€s per tonne) Hypothetical cost of registration per substance (€ per tonne) 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% thisBaseline 25.0% Annex VII No diffuse/dispersive use criterion Annex VII No Annex III 20.0% Annex VII+ No diffuse/dispersive use criterion Annex VII+ No Annex III 15.0% Annex VII++ No diffuse/dispersive use criterion 10.0% 5.0% Cost Range REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 53 <= € 2175 <= € 2100 <= € 2025 <= € 1950 <= € 1875 <= € 1800 <= € 1725 <= € 1650 <= € 1575 <= € 1500 <= € 1425 <= € 1350 <= € 1275 <= € 1200 <= € 1125 <= € 1050 <= € 975 <= € 900 <= € 825 <= € 750 <= € 675 <= € 600 <= € 525 <= € 450 <= € 375 <= € 300 <= € 225 <= € 150 <= € 75 0.0% <= € 0 Percent frequency Substance is withdrawn from the market Substance is registered Applying this rule to the raw data from the Monte Carlo simulation: where the cost of registration exceeds €750 per tonne for a substance, that substance is assumed to be withdrawn from the market by all MIs. As the costs of registration are differ between options (and the baseline), under some options a substance may exceed €750 per tonne (and be withdrawn) and, under others, it may not. This means that different numbers of substances will be withdrawn under the options and the baseline. This is illustrated in Table 5.2 which for each option (and the baseline) shows the number of substances with hypothetical registration costs per tonne exceeding different intervals (including €750 per tonne). Table 5.2: Number of substances with hypothetical registration costs exceeding different values Option Hyothetical Annex VII Annex VII+ Annex VII++ cost of No No No registration (€ Annex VII Annex VII+ Baseline diffuse/disp diffuse/disp diffuse/disp per per No Annex III No Annex III ersive use ersive use ersive use tonne) criterion criterion criterion €0 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 € 75 15,183 16,640 18,812 16,716 19,421 17,167 € 150 6,544 10,110 16,451 10,316 16,751 12,455 € 225 5,358 8,371 13,582 8,600 13,991 11,703 € 300 4,329 6,762 10,949 6,925 11,264 10,573 € 375 3,408 5,351 8,475 5,626 8,923 9,522 € 450 2,823 4,407 6,934 4,572 7,302 8,343 € 525 2,138 3,322 5,138 3,569 5,522 7,293 € 600 1,704 2,672 4,251 2,792 4,422 6,467 € 675 1,482 2,330 3,615 2,416 3,803 5,691 € 750 1,305 2,025 3,324 2,117 3,473 4,927 € 900 598 946 1,473 1,110 1,709 3,896 € 1,050 487 776 1,230 820 1,298 3,007 € 1,275 322 514 784 557 870 1,955 € 1,500 167 262 440 287 465 1,484 € 1,800 161 254 421 257 428 1,024 € 2,025 123 184 325 190 334 559 € 2,100 70 101 2 146 144 489 € 2,175 0 0 0 35 55 399 € 2,250 0 0 0 12 3 364 € 2,400 0 0 0 1 3 281 € 2,550 0 0 0 1 2 230 € 2,700 0 0 0 0 2 206 € 3,000 0 0 0 0 0 159 € 3,300 0 0 0 0 0 42 € 3,600 0 0 0 0 0 2 € 3,900 0 0 0 0 0 0 From Table 5.2 it can be see that, under the baseline, 1,305 substances (6.5%) in the Monte Carlo data set have hypothetical registration costs exceeding €750 per tonne. This value of 6.5% is comparable with the estimates for percentage of 1-10t substances withdrawn under the Regulation REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 54 at the time that it was being drawn up. This is why €750 per tonne has been selected as a cut-off point to indicate withdrawal under the baseline and the options. Applying the €750 per tonne cut-off point across all of the options (and the baseline) identifies the following numbers of substances in the raw Monte Carlo data set where registration would not be supported (and the substances would be withdrawn from the market): Baseline: 1,305 substances withdrawn; Annex VII No diffuse/dispersive use criterion: 2,025 substances withdrawn; Annex VII No Annex III: 3,324 substances withdrawn; Annex VII+ No diffuse/dispersive use criterion: 2,117 substances withdrawn; Annex VII+ No Annex III: 3,473 substances withdrawn; and Annex VII++ No diffuse/dispersive use criterion: 4,927 substances withdrawn. In each case and for each option, substances that would be withdrawn from the market have been identified and labelled in the Monte Carlo data set. This division of the Monte Carlo data between substances registered and substances withdrawn has allowed separate analyses to be undertaken on the cost and business impact of each. 5.2 Estimated cost of substance withdrawal 5.2.1 Attributes of Substances withdrawn from the Market The division of the Monte Carlo data in this way permits separate analysis of substances with hypothetical registration costs in excess of €750 per tonne. Analysis of the Monte Carlo simulation data for each of the substances withdrawn under each of the options (and the baseline) provides the breakdown in Table 5.3. In the table, for each option (and the baseline) summary data are provided on the numbers of substances, total volumes of production of these substances and also the factors that may cause (hypothetical) registration costs to be higher than €750 per tonne. In terms of the factors that cause costs to be higher, one of the most significant factors appears to be the number of MIs which, in combination with costs of providing toxicological and ecotoxicological information (including the possibility of further mutagenicity testing) and lower tonnages produced, causes the cost of (hypothetical) registration to be elevated to levels that make registration uneconomic. As can be seen from the table, for all but the Annex VII++ option, in excess of 80% of the substances withdrawn are manufactured by 1 to 2 MIs (and more than 50% by only one MI). The combination of high(er) registration costs and low numbers of MIs reduces opportunities for cost sharing between SIEF members. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 55 Table 5.3: Attributes of substances withdrawn from the market under the different options 1,305 6.5% Annex VII No diffuse/dispersive use criterion 2,025 10.1% 3,473 17.4% Annex VII++ No diffuse/dispersive use criterion 4,927 24.6% 19,181 30,052 49,026 31,445 51,575 90,841 851 1,359 2,174 1,395 2,243 4,316 0 0 0 56 92 101 736 344 218 7 0 0 0 1,113 557 346 8 1 0 0 1,868 884 560 11 1 0 0 1,168 577 356 15 1 0 0 1,930 942 573 27 1 0 0 1,599 1,835 1,101 240 122 30 0 83% 82% 83% 82% 83% 70% Baseline Number of substances withdrawn Percentage of substances withdrawn Total tonnes of production withdrawn across all withdrawn substances Number that would have been subject to further mutagenicity testing (true or false positives in in vitro screening tests) Number that would have be subject to PBT Assessment 1 2 3 Number of MIs (would 4 be registrants) 5 6 7 or more Percentage manufactured by only 1 or 2 MIs (would be registrants) Option Annex VII+ No Annex VII No diffuse/dispersiv Annex III e use criterion 3,324 2,117 16.6% 10.6% REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 56 Annex VII+ No Annex III 5.2.2 Cost of withdrawal The cost of substance withdrawal is broadly associated with both the income foregone from manufacture or import (for MIs30) and the need to reformulate products (incurred by DUs). In both cases, the scale of costs is related to the commercial value of the product being withdrawn. In the absence of any better indication, the magnitude of the (hypothetical) cost of registration that triggers withdrawal of that substance under the options has been used as an indicative proxy for the ‘commercial value’ of a withdrawn substance. The underlying assumption here is that, for all of the substances withdrawn from the market on the grounds of cost, the hypothetical registration cost that triggers that withdrawal is at the ‘break-even’ point. Owing to the fact that there is overlap between substances withdrawn under the baseline and each of the options, the ‘break even’ point for a substance is taken as being the lowest hypothetical registration cost that triggers that withdrawal. Thus, for example, for substances withdrawn under the baseline and the other options the ‘break-even’ point is equal to the hypothetical cost of registration for each substance under the baseline. In terms of lost annual income from withdrawal of substances (for MIs), there is no data from which to extrapolate. However, for the purposes of this analysis, on the basis of the consultants expert judgement, lost annual income has been taken as being equal to 10% of the indicative ‘commercial value’ given by the hypothetical registration cost for each substance per year. Costs are incurred for five years following the 2018 registration deadline (and the totals have been discounted at 4% to provide Present Values). In terms of the cost of reformulation (for DUs), logically this is unlikely to be higher than the (hypothetical) costs of registration. This is because if it were more expensive to reformulate than to register (or reformulation was not possible), DUs would be keen to sponsor (or part sponsor) registration of the substance. Thus the maximum costs of reformulation (for DUs) are equal to the hypothetical costs of registration for withdrawn substances and this maximum has been applied to derive cost estimates. Table 5.4 provides the resulting total costs of withdrawal to MIs and to DUs as a whole under the baseline and the options. The impacts of these costs on different sizes of businesses are considered in Section 6. 30 Although an importer may find a substitute with lower registration requirements, hence no income would be foregone. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 57 Table 5.4: Costs of substance withdrawal under the options Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII No No Annex Diffuse/ III Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III Total costs to MIs (income foregone - € € 31.5 € 49.4 € 80.5 millions) Total costs to DUs (maximum € 81.0 € 126.9 € 203.5 reformulation cost €millions) Annex VII+ - No Diffuse/ Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III Annex VII+ - No Annex III Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III € 51.2 € 83.8 € 152.3 € 134.7 € 217.0 € 436.6 5.3 Estimated costs of registration The overall costs of registration (to MIs and DUs combined) under the options can be re-calculated by separating out the withdrawn substances from the full Monte Carlo dataset for each of the options and the baseline. As with the withdrawn substances considered in Section 5.2, this allows the cost and other data produced by the Monte Carlo simulation to be analysed separately, dividing the data into withdrawn versus registered substances. The resulting overall costs of substance registration (accounting for substance withdrawal) given by the Monte Carlo simulation data are provided in Table 5.5 (which can be compared directly with Table 5.1 showing costs before withdrawal – i.e. across all 20,000 substances). Table 5.5: Registration costs under the options (all values expressed as Present Value over 4 years at 4%) Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII - Annex VII+ Annex VII+ Annex No No Annex - No - No Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ Dispersive Dispersive Dispersive Use Use Use Criterion in Criterion in Criterion in Annex III Annex III Annex III Total costs across all € 412.8 € 517.5 € 693.4 € 527.9 € 712.0 € 647.4 substances (€ millions) Total costs for substances submitting full information under € 276.4 € 276.4 € 270.3 € 283.6 € 278.7 € 358.8 the baseline (€ millions) Total costs for those substances submitting physchem only € 136.4 € 241.1 € 423.1 € 244.3 € 433.2 € 288.6 information under the baseline (€ millions) Average cost of substance registration € 163 € 212 € 302 € 216 € 311 € 261 per tonne (€) REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 58 As with the hypothetical costs discussed in Section 5.2.1, the average values conceal variation in the cost of registering different substances. Figure 5.2 provides a percentage frequency plot of the cost of registration costs of all substances registered (expressed in € per tonne). This figure can be compared directly with Figure 5.1 (which provides costs before withdrawal has been accounted for). For the analysis of cost and impact, in the absence of information to the contrary, it is assumed that MIs pass half of the registration costs on to Downstream Users (DUs). As such, half of the costs in Table 5.5 will be absorbed by MIs and half will be passed on to DUs. The impact of these costs on MIs and DUs is considered in Section 6 on business impacts. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 59 Figure 5.2: Total cost of registration (to MIs and DUs) per substance per tonne (€s per tonne) Cost of registration per substance (€ per tonne) 60.0% 50.0% Baseline 30.0% Annex VII No diffuse/dispersive use criterion Annex VII No Annex III Annex VII+ No diffuse/dispersive use criterion 20.0% Annex VII+ No Annex III Annex VII++ No diffuse/dispersive use criterion 10.0% Cost Range REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 60 <= € 750 <= € 700 <= € 650 <= € 600 <= € 550 <= € 500 <= € 450 <= € 400 <= € 350 <= € 300 <= € 250 <= € 200 <= € 150 <= € 100 <= € 50 0.0% <= € 0 Percent frequency 40.0% 5.4 Total costs of the Options The total costs to MIs, DUs and overall are summarised in Table 5.6 for the baseline and each option. Table 5.6: Summary and total costs of the options (all values expressed as Present Values discounted at 4%) Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII - Annex VII+ Annex VII+ Annex No No Annex - No - No Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ Dispersive Dispersive Dispersive Use Use Use Criterion in Criterion in Criterion in Annex III Annex III Annex III Costs of Withdrawal MI costs of withdrawal (income foregone) (€ € 31.5 € 49.4 € 80.5 € 51.2 € 83.8 € 152.3 millions) DU costs of withdrawal (maximum € 81.0 € 126.9 € 203.5 € 134.7 € 217.0 € 436.6 reformulation cost) (€ millions) Registration costs MI costs of registration € 206.4 € 258.7 € 346.7 € 263.9 € 356.0 € 323.7 (€ millions) DU costs of registration € 206.4 € 258.7 € 346.7 € 263.9 € 356.0 € 323.7 (€ millions) Total Costs Total Costs to MIs (€ € 237.9 € 308.1 € 427.2 € 315.1 € 439.8 € 476.0 millions) Total costs to DUs (€ € 287.4 € 385.7 € 550.2 € 398.7 € 573.0 € 760.3 millions) Total costs (€ millions) € 525.2 € 693.8 € 977.4 € 713.8 € 1,012.8 € 1,236.3 Change in total PV costs between options Working from the baseline and through the options the following changes in total PV costs are observed: Baseline (Current Annex III and Annex VII information): total costs under the baseline are around €525 million; Removal of the diffuse/dispersive use criterion in Annex III: has the effect of increasing the number of substances required to generate and submit full tox and ecotox information. When combined with options for changing the information required in Annex VII, this has the following effects: o Annex VII (No Diffuse Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III): Where there are no changes in the information required in Annex VII, the cost increases by €168.6 million from the baseline to €693.8 million overall (an increase of 32%); REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 61 o Annex VII+ (No Diffuse/Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III): Where there are slight changes to the information required (Annex VII+), the effect is to further increase the costs by an additional €20 million (relative to no change in the information required in Annex VII) to €713.8 million. The net effect is that costs increase to €188.6 million above the baseline (an increase of 36% - 4% higher than the no change in Annex VII option); o Annex VII++ (No Diffuse/Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III): Where there are more significant changes to the information required (Annex VII++), the effect is to further increase the costs by an additional €542.8 million (relative to no change in the information required in Annex VII). The net effect is that costs increase to €738.1 million above the baseline (an increase of 140% - 108% higher than the no change in Annex VII option); Removal of Annex III: This has the effect of requiring full tox and ecotox information to be submitted for all substances (so significantly increasing the number of substances submitting full information). When combined with options for changing the information required in Annex VII, this has the following effects: o Annex VII (No Annex III): Where there are no changes in the information required in Annex VII, the cost increases by €452.2 million from the baseline to €977.4 million overall (an increase of 86%); and o Annex VII+ (No Annex III): Where there are slight changes to the information required (Annex VII+), the effect is to further increase the costs by an additional €35.4 million (relative to no change in the information required in Annex VII) to €1,012.8 million. The net effect is that costs increase to €487.6 million above the baseline (an increase of 93% - 7% higher than the no change in Annex VII option). REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 62 6 Business impacts 6.1 Overview Section 5 has provided the estimates of the overall costs to manufacturers and importers (MIs) and downstream users (DUs) that would be incurred under the baseline and the options. Drawing on the dataset produced by the Monte Carlo simulation described in Section 4, this section seeks to explore the impacts of these costs in more detail and, where outputs from the Monte Carlo simulation make it possible, at the level of micro, small, medium and large enterprises. This, in turn, informs wider consideration of less quantifiable impacts such as those in innovation and competitiveness. 6.2 Impact of substance withdrawal on manufacturers and importers (MIs) The overall costs of substance withdrawal to MIs have been described in Section 5.3 where these focus on the income foregone by MIs with the withdrawal of substances from the market. As can be seen from the summary Table 6.1, MI substance withdrawal makes up between 13 and 32% of the total cost of the baseline and options to MIs (and between 6% and 12% overall). Table 6.1: Summary and total costs of the options (all values expressed as Present Values discounted at 4%) Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII - Annex VII+ Annex VII+ Annex No No Annex - No - No Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ Dispersive Dispersive Dispersive Use Use Use Criterion in Criterion in Criterion in Annex III Annex III Annex III MI costs of withdrawal (income foregone) € 31.5 € 49.4 € 80.5 € 51.2 € 83.8 € 152.3 (€millions) Total Costs to MIs € 237.9 € 308.1 € 427.2 € 315.1 € 439.8 € 476.0 (€millions) Total costs (MIs and DUs - € millions) € 525.2 € 693.8 € 977.4 € 713.8 € 1,012.8 € 1,236.3 MI costs of withdrawal as % of total cost to 13% 16% 19% 16% 19% 32% MIs MI costs of withdrawal as % of total costs (MIs 6% 7% 8% 7% 8% 12% and DUs) The sub-sections below explore these costs further, providing information from the modelled simulation on the impacts of withdrawal on different sizes of enterprise and overall providing information on the number of MIs impacted by withdrawal and the associated company level reductions in tonnes produced and annual income foregone owing to withdrawals. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 63 6.2.1 Number of MIs impacted by withdrawal As noted in Section 5.4, a division has been made in the Monte Carlo dataset between substances to be registered and substances to be withdrawn under each of the options and the baseline. As the Monte Carlo simulation generates and records information on the manufacturers, size of those manufacturers, volumes produced by each manufacturer as well as other information (such as what the cost of registration would have been), these data can be analysed to produce a profile of the withdrawn substances in terms of the same attributes. Table 6.2 summarises the data from the Monte Carlo simulation in terms of the number of MI companies withdrawing one or more substances from their portfolios and the same numbers expressed as a percentage of the total number of companies in the appropriate size category. Variation between companies of different sizes In terms of variations in the scale of impacts between companies of different sizes (and the potential for disproportionate impacts on smaller companies), the larger the size of enterprise the more likely that one or more substances will be withdrawn from the market. This applies under the baseline and all of the options for changing information requirements and is simply as a result of the fact that, on average, the larger the size of enterprise, the larger the portfolio in terms of numbers of 110t substances. Table 6.2: Number of MI Companies impacted by withdrawal Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII - Annex VII+ No No Annex - No Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ Dispersive Dispersive Use Use Criterion in Criterion in Annex III Annex III Number of companies Micro companies 946 1,396 2,183 1,431 Small Companies 350 542 838 565 Medium Companies 278 403 574 423 Large Companies 258 330 357 336 Total 1,832 2,671 3,952 2,755 Percentage of total companies in size category Micro companies 11.1% 16.4% 25.6% 16.8% Small Companies 14.0% 21.7% 33.5% 22.6% Medium Companies 25.3% 36.6% 52.2% 38.5% Large Companies 64.5% 82.5% 89.3% 84.0% Total 14.6% 21.3% 31.6% 22.0% Annex VII+ - No Annex III Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III 2,250 872 607 364 4,093 3,521 1,307 824 400 6,052 26.4% 34.9% 55.2% 91.0% 32.7% 41.4% 52.3% 74.9% 100.0% 48.4% Variation in withdrawals between options A consistent trend can be observed working across companies of all sizes from the baseline and through the options: Baseline (Current Annex III and Annex VII information): Under the baseline around 14.6% of companies will withdraw one or more substances; REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 64 Removal of the diffuse/dispersive use criterion in Annex III: has the effect of increasing the number of substances required to generate and submit full tox and ecotox information. When combined with options for changing the information required in Annex VII, this has the following effects: o Annex VII (No Diffuse Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III): Where there are no changes in the information required in Annex VII, the number of companies withdrawing substances increases by 6.7% from the baseline to 21.3% overall; o Annex VII+ (No Diffuse/Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III): Where there are slight changes to the information required (Annex VII+), the effect is to further increase the number of companies withdrawing substances by an additional 0.7% (relative to no change in the information required in Annex VII). The net effect is that the number of companies withdrawing substances increases to 7.4% above the baseline (with 22% of companies withdrawing one or more substances overall); o Annex VII++ (No Diffuse/Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III): Where there are more significant changes to the information required (Annex VII++), the effect is to further increase the number of companies withdrawing substances by an additional 27.1% (relative to no change in the information required in Annex VII). The net effect is that the number of companies withdrawing substances increases to 33.8% above the baseline (with 48.4% of companies withdrawing one or more substances overall); Removal of Annex III: This has the effect of requiring full tox and ecotox information to be submitted for all substances (so significantly increasing the number of substances submitting full information). When combined with options for changing the information required in Annex VII, this has the following effects: o Annex VII (No Annex III): Where there are no changes in the information required in Annex VII, the number of companies withdrawing substances increases by 17% from the baseline to 31.6% overall; o Annex VII+ (No Annex III): Where there are slight changes to the information required (Annex VII+), the effect is to further increase the number of companies withdrawing substances by an additional 1.1% (relative to no change in the information required in Annex VII). The net effect is that the number of companies withdrawing substances increases to 18.1% above the baseline (with 32.7% of companies withdrawing one or more substances overall). 6.2.2 Levels of production withdrawn by MIs Clearly, within the population of companies withdrawing substances (given in Table 6.2), the withdrawal of substances will affect some companies more severely than others with the most extreme case being that withdrawal of substances leads to withdrawal of all (100%) of existing production. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 65 Number of companies where all of 1-10t substance production withdrawn Table 6.3 provides data from the Monte Carlo simulation profiling the number of companies withdrawing all of the 1-10t substances in their portfolios. Thus, for these companies, 100% of existing production is discontinued after registration in 2018. Data are provided on numbers of companies by size, as a percentage of all companies and as a percentage of companies withdrawing one or more substances. The data suggest that complete withdrawal of the entire portfolio of 1-10t substances is a rare outcome regardless of the option. Though rare, it is most likely to occur in companies with smaller portfolios comprised of only a (very) few substances. As such, with smaller portfolios on average, the smaller sized SMEs (micro and small) are more likely to withdraw entire 1-10t substance portfolios but even here this is a very rare event. Table 6.3: Number of companies where all of production withdrawn Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII - Annex VII+ Annex VII+ No No Annex - No - No Annex Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ III Dispersive Dispersive Use Use Criterion in Criterion in Annex III Annex III Number of companies Micro companies 5 8 19 8 21 Small Companies 1 2 3 2 3 Medium Companies 0 0 0 0 0 Large Companies 0 0 0 0 0 Total 6 10 22 10 24 As a percentage of all companies Micro companies 0.06% 0.09% 0.22% 0.09% 0.25% Small Companies 0.04% 0.08% 0.12% 0.08% 0.12% Medium Companies Large Companies Total 0.05% 0.08% 0.18% 0.08% 0.19% As a percentage of companies withdrawing one or more substances Micro companies 0.5% 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.9% Small Companies 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% Medium Companies Large Companies Total 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III 43 4 0 0 47 0.50% 0.16% 0.38% 1.2% 0.3% 0.8% Number of companies experiencing different levels of reduction in annual tonnage production Whilst complete withdrawal of entire portfolios of 1-10t substances is a rare outcome for companies, clearly some reduction production is inevitable where a company withdraws one or more substances. Tables 6.4 and 6.5 provide information from the Monte Carlo simulation on the number of companies experiencing different levels of production loss (measured in tonnes per year) of 1-10t substances. Table 6.5 provides this as percentage of companies relative to the total number of REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 66 companies’ currently manufacturing/importing 1-10t substances and Table 6.5 provides the same data as a percentage of the companies withdrawing substances. Table 6.4: Number of companies experiencing different levels of reduction in annual tonnage production as a percentage of the total number of companies Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII - Annex VII+ Annex VII+ Annex No No Annex - No - No Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ Dispersive Dispersive Dispersive Use Use Use Criterion in Criterion in Criterion in Annex III Annex III Annex III Percentage of companies where >80% of production tonnage withdrawn but <100% Micro companies 0.02% Small Companies Medium Companies Large Companies Total Percentage of companies where >60% of production tonnage withdrawn but <100% Micro companies 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 1.1% Small Companies 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% Medium Companies 0.1% Large Companies Total 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9% Percentage of companies where >40% of production tonnage withdrawn but <60% Micro companies 0.6% 1.0% 2.1% 1.0% 2.2% 4.2% Small Companies 0.4% 0.7% 1.3% 0.7% 1.4% 3.1% Medium Companies 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 1.0% Large Companies Total 0.5% 0.8% 1.7% 0.8% 1.8% 3.6% Percentage of companies where >30% of production tonnage withdrawn but <40% Micro companies 1.2% 2.0% 3.5% 2.1% 3.7% 7.0% Small Companies 0.8% 1.2% 2.7% 1.2% 2.8% 5.2% Medium Companies 0.2% 0.8% 1.3% 0.8% 1.3% 5.2% Large Companies 1.5% Total 1.0% 1.7% 3.1% 1.7% 3.2% 6.3% REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 67 Table 6.5: Number of companies experiencing different levels of reduction in annual tonnage production as a percentage of the number of companies withdrawing one or more substances Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII - Annex VII+ Annex VII+ Annex No No Annex - No - No Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ Dispersive Dispersive Dispersive Use Use Use Criterion in Criterion in Criterion in Annex III Annex III Annex III Percentage of companies where >80% of production tonnage withdrawn but <100% Micro companies 0.06% Small Companies Medium Companies Large Companies Total Percentage of companies where >60% of production tonnage withdrawn but <100% Micro companies 1.0% 1.6% 2.2% 1.6% 2.2% 2.7% Small Companies 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 1.1% Medium Companies 0.1% Large Companies Total 0.5% 0.9% 1.3% 0.9% 1.3% 1.8% Percentage of companies where >40% of production tonnage withdrawn but <60% Micro companies 5.7% 6.1% 8.1% 6.1% 8.5% 10.1% Small Companies 2.6% 3.1% 3.8% 3.0% 4.0% 5.9% Medium Companies 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 1.3% Large Companies Total 3.4% 3.9% 5.4% 3.8% 5.6% 7.4% Percentage of companies where >30% of production tonnage withdrawn but <40% Micro companies 10.7% 12.2% 13.8% 12.4% 14.0% 17.0% Small Companies 5.4% 5.4% 8.0% 5.3% 8.0% 9.9% Medium Companies 0.7% 2.2% 2.4% 2.1% 2.3% 6.9% Large Companies 1.5% Total 6.7% 7.8% 9.7% 7.9% 9.7% 13.1% The data in Table 6.5 suggest the following: very few companies (0.5% to 1.8% of companies withdrawing depending on the option) are affected by very significant changes in overall tonnages produced (>60% of 1-10t substance production tonnage withdrawn); few companies (3.4% to 7.4% of companies withdrawing depending on the option) are affected by significant changes in overall tonnages produced (40-60% of 1-10t substance production tonnage withdrawn); and few companies (6.7% to 13.1% of companies withdrawing depending on the option) are affected by moderately significant changes in overall tonnages produced (30-40% of 1-10t substance production tonnage withdrawn); for the vast majority of companies withdrawing one or more substances, less than 30% of the current total tonnes of 1-10t substances produced would be withdrawn. Summarising data from the Monte Carlo simulation on the withdrawn substances, Table 6.6 provides the average percentage of annual production withdrawn by companies that withdraw one or more REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 68 substances. The numbers of companies (expressed as numbers and percentage of the total number of companies) from Table 6.2 are also provided as context. Thus, for example, under the baseline 946 micro companies (11.1% of the total) would withdraw one or more substances where this would represent 23% of the total annual current production of those companies. Whilst the data in Table 6.2 identified that the larger the size of enterprise the more likely that one or more substances will be withdrawn from the market (because on average, the larger the size of enterprise, the larger the portfolio in terms of numbers of 1-10t substances), the data in Table 6.5 suggest that the impact on these larger companies is less than the smaller ones in terms of the percentage of production reduced. Clearly, the reason for the variation is the same, smaller companies have smaller portfolios of 1-10t substances (on average) and, hence, withdrawal of one or more substances from these (smaller) portfolios will result in a greater proportion of annual production withdrawn compared with larger companies (with generally larger portfolios). Table 6.6: Average percentage of annual production withdrawn by affected companies Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII - Annex VII+ Annex VII+ Annex No No Annex - No - No Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ Dispersive Dispersive Dispersive Use Use Use Criterion in Criterion in Criterion in Annex III Annex III Annex III Total number of companies in size category withdrawing one or more substances Micro companies 946 1,396 2,183 1,431 2,250 3,521 Small Companies 350 542 838 565 872 1,307 Medium Companies 278 403 574 423 607 824 Large Companies 258 330 357 336 364 400 Total 1,832 2,671 3,952 2,755 4,093 6,052 Percentage of total companies in size category withdrawing one or more substances Micro companies 11.1% 16.4% 25.6% 16.8% 26.4% 41.4% Small Companies 14.0% 21.7% 33.5% 22.6% 34.9% 52.3% Medium Companies 25.3% 36.6% 52.2% 38.5% 55.2% 74.9% Large Companies 64.5% 82.5% 89.3% 84.0% 91.0% 100.0% Total 14.6% 21.3% 31.6% 22.0% 32.7% 48.4% Average percentage of annual production tonnage withdrawn by affected companies Micro companies 23% 24% 25% 24% 26% 27% Small Companies 17% 18% 20% 18% 20% 22% Medium Companies 10% 12% 13% 12% 13% 16% Large Companies 4% 5% 7% 6% 8% 15% Total 17% 18% 21% 19% 21% 24% 6.2.3 Annual Income foregone owing to withdrawal - MIs In terms of the financial impact of withdrawal on these companies, Table 6.7 provides the total annual income foregone by companies of different sizes and the average annual income foregone per company by size. The numbers of companies (expressed as numbers and percentage of the total number of companies) from Table 6.2 are also provided as context. Thus, for example, under the baseline 946 micro companies (11.1% of the total) would withdraw one or more substances where this would represent an annual income foregone of €3,800 on average per company (and €3.63 million across all 946 micro companies). REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 69 Variation between companies of different sizes In terms of variations in the scale of impacts between companies of different sizes (and the potential for disproportionate impacts on smaller companies), whilst the number of companies affected by withdrawal increases with the higher cost options relative to the baseline, the average annual income forgone per company affected changes very little for the micro, small and medium enterprises. Annual income foregone per company is of similar magnitude for these sizes of company but tends to be lower the smaller the company. In contrast, because their portfolios are bigger (and thus their exposure to withdrawal is larger) the larger companies generally forgo a larger income per company by withdrawal. There is also more significant variation between options in terms of the income foregone, with the higher option (Annex VII++) resulting in a much larger change in annual income foregone compared with the smaller companies. Against this must be set the much larger total incomes from the more extensive portfolios of 1-10t substances produced by larger enterprises. Table 6.7: Annual Income foregone owing to withdrawal Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII - Annex VII+ Annex VII+ Annex No No Annex - No - No Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ Dispersive Dispersive Dispersive Use Use Use Criterion in Criterion in Criterion in Annex III Annex III Annex III Total number of companies in size category withdrawing one or more substances Micro companies 946 1,396 2,183 1,431 2,250 3,521 Small Companies 350 542 838 565 872 1,307 Medium Companies 278 403 574 423 607 824 Large Companies 258 330 357 336 364 400 Total 1,832 2,671 3,952 2,755 4,093 6,052 Percentage of total companies in size category withdrawing one or more substances Micro companies 11.1% 16.4% 25.6% 16.8% 26.4% 41.4% Small Companies 14.0% 21.7% 33.5% 22.6% 34.9% 52.3% Medium Companies 25.3% 36.6% 52.2% 38.5% 55.2% 74.9% Large Companies 64.5% 82.5% 89.3% 84.0% 91.0% 100.0% Total 14.6% 21.3% 31.6% 22.0% 32.7% 48.4% Total annual income foregone (€ million) Micro companies € 3.63 € 5.52 € 9.23 € 5.64 € 9.50 € 16.22 Small Companies € 1.40 € 2.23 € 3.80 € 2.29 € 3.92 € 6.63 Medium Companies € 1.21 € 1.94 € 3.14 € 2.02 € 3.29 € 5.61 Large Companies € 1.71 € 2.78 € 4.18 € 2.97 € 4.47 € 10.02 Total € 7.95 € 12.47 € 20.35 € 12.93 € 21.18 € 38.48 Average annual income foregone per company (€ thousand) Micro companies € 3.8 € 4.0 € 4.2 € 3.9 € 4.2 € 4.6 Small Companies € 4.0 € 4.1 € 4.5 € 4.1 € 4.5 € 5.1 Medium Companies € 4.4 € 4.8 € 5.5 € 4.8 € 5.4 € 6.8 Large Companies € 6.6 € 8.4 € 11.7 € 8.9 € 12.3 € 25.0 Overall € 4.3 € 4.7 € 5.1 € 4.7 € 5.2 € 6.4 REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 70 6.2.4 Impacts of withdrawal on innovation and competition - MIs Substance withdrawal can affect innovation and competitiveness in various ways. Factors that will influence this include: numbers of enterprises affected, enterprise size, levels of production affected or income foregone. In the following paragraphs the nature of the effects are outlined then each option is discussed. As regards numbers of enterprises affected, if a substance is only produced or imported by a handful of enterprises, the overall effects should be less, depending on the nature of the products it is used for. If it is a critically important product it would probably spur innovation or substitution. There could very probably also be increased competition as a result. If it is not used for a very useful and economically viable product, the product may just be withdrawn. If the substance withdrawal affects many firms, if this is used for a useful product for which demand remains strong enterprises would seek to re-formulate or substitute, but if the product(s) in question is near the end of its life cycle it may just hasten its withdrawal from the market. In instances where other companies supply competing products that use substances that are not withdrawn, they will be at a competitive advantage until such time as alternatives are adopted or developed. The effect on innovation and competition of the number of companies impacted is further felt through the level of production withdrawn, which, in turn has an effect on income foregone, profitability, and viability of the enterprise. If significant shares of production and/ or turnover are lost, this could lead to either attempts to find new sources of revenue, through for example innovation, or to withdrawal from the industry, which means that those remaining are left in a stronger competitive position. Firm size is also relevant here as smaller firms tend to be more dependent on individual products (and experience more challenges in innovation), whereas larger firms have more products, resources and resilience. From this point of view, more withdrawals will tend to increase the share of larger firms in the industry. Given these general comments, the implications of the specific options are discussed below. Change/difference between options Working from the baseline and through the options the following changes are anticipated: Baseline (Current Annex III and Annex VII information): Overall some 14.6% of MIs could be affected by withdrawals. This is a lower share than any of the options, which suggests lesser effects on both innovation and competitiveness than in the case of those options. There are few instances of all 1-10t substances being withdrawn, although this is more likely in smaller than in larger firms. Having said that, 1 out of 6 of the micro firms that withdraw one or more substances (14.6%) are expected to experience a tonnage loss of between 30-60%, which is significant for a firm employing 1-9 employees, and could threaten its viability and competitive position. The same is true for 1 out of 12 small firms with 1 or more withdrawals. There is therefore likely to be some consolidation at this end of the market, particularly as micro and small firms tend not to be as innovative (high value added) as larger firms, although there is certainly likely to be a good deal of innovative activity as these firms attempt to replace lost production and revenue. Removal of the diffuse/dispersive use criterion in Annex III: has the effect of increasing the number of substances required to generate and submit full tox and ecotox information. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 71 When combined with options for changing the information required in Annex VII, this has the following effects: o Annex VII (No Diffuse Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III): There is an increase of close to 50% in companies affected, particularly for micro, small and medium enterprises. However, there is still very low share of MIs that withdraw all 1-10t production. Some 3.3% of micro MIs experience reductions in annual tonnage production of between 30-60%. (19.9% of those experiencing a withdrawal). This is again quite significant, and will lead to consolidation in the sector. Pressure from customers may also stimulate innovative activity (substitution, reformulation, new product development). However, pressure on competition and innovation will probably be present more at the smaller firm end of the market (while those firms, as SMEs, face more challenges in this respect) as they try to deal with lost business, because the effects on large companies is not as significant. Customer pressure may also drive additional innovative activity in the larger firms. o Annex VII+ (No Diffuse/Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III): Where there are slight changes to the information required (Annex VII+), the numbers of firms affected, and impacts on levels of production and income are not materially different to those of the no change in Annex VII option). The effects on competition and innovation, accordingly, do not differ materially either. o Annex VII++ (No Diffuse/Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III): Where there are more significant changes to the information required (Annex VII++), substantially more companies are affected than in the Annex VII+ option. While the total number of firms affected increases by a factor of 2.2, the number of micro firms affected increases by 2.5 times (3.7 times more compared to the base line). The number of companies where all 1-10t substances are withdrawn also increases, but this is still quite a small percentage overall. From a competitive point of view the reduced revenue in that segment of the market will have a negative effect on the competitiveness of the firms affected, especially at the smaller end of the market, and will probably lead to consolidation among such firms and at the extreme to closures, depending on how important that revenue is in terms of profitability. The need to find replacement revenue will also encourage activity, whether to develop new products or to use existing products for new uses. However, such activity is costly and micro and smaller firms in particular may be constrained in this respect. The net effect is that the negative effects on competitiveness and the positive effects on innovation will probably both be greater compared with the no change in Annex VII option. Removal of Annex III: This has the effect of requiring full tox and ecotox information to be submitted for all substances (so significantly increasing the number of substances submitting full information). When combined with options for changing the information required in Annex VII, this has the following effects: REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 72 o Annex VII (No Annex III): Where there are no changes in the information required in Annex VII, the effect is to increase the number of companies affected by a factor of 2.2 compared to the baseline and 46% compared to the Annex VII (no diffuse/ dispersive use criterion in Annex III). There is a similar shift in the number of enterprises withdrawing their full 1-10tonne portfolios. The percentages of tonnage withdrawn is higher, but not substantially higher, than in the case of Annex VII (no diffuse/ dispersive use criterion in Annex III). The effects of these changes will be to reduce the competitiveness of the companies concerned, and again, this will probably lead to consolidation and market exit, particularly at the smaller end of the market, depending on the extent to which replacement income can be obtained. This should also act as a driver for innovation, although as mentioned already, there are more constraints for smaller than larger firms in this respect. o Annex VII+ (No Annex III): Where there are slight changes to the information required (Annex VII+), the effects are not materially different relative to no change in the information required in Annex VII. 6.3 Impact of substance withdrawal on downstream users (DUs) 6.3.1 Costs and impacts The overall costs of substance withdrawal to DUs have been described in Section 5.3 where these focus on the costs of reformulation to DUs after the withdrawal of substances from the market by MIs. As can be seen from the summary Table 6.8, DU costs of substance withdrawal (maximum costs of reformulation) makes up between 28% and 57% of the total cost of the baseline and options to DUs (and between 15% and 35% overall). Table 6.8: Summary and total costs of the options (all values expressed as Present Values discounted at 4%) Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII - Annex VII+ Annex VII+ Annex No No Annex - No - No Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ Dispersive Dispersive Dispersive Use Use Use Criterion in Criterion in Criterion in Annex III Annex III Annex III Costs of Withdrawal DU costs of withdrawal (maximum € 81.0 € 126.9 € 203.5 € 134.7 € 217.0 € 436.6 reformulation cost) (€ millions) Total costs to DUs (€ € 287.4 € 385.7 € 550.2 € 398.7 € 573.0 € 760.3 millions) Total costs (€ millions) € 525.2 € 693.8 € 977.4 € 713.8 € 1,012.8 € 1,236.3 DU costs of withdrawal 28% 33% 37% 34% 38% 57% as % of total cost to MIs DU costs of withdrawal as % of total costs (MIs 15% 18% 21% 19% 21% 35% and DUs) REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 73 In terms of the impacts on individual downstream users, little is known about the numbers of downstream users other than, despite the low tonnages involved, there may be several on average, each using low volumes of the substances. An estimate has been made on the cost of each option to individual downstream users by assuming five downstream users per tonne of each substance. This results in the average cost per downstream user provided in Table 6.9. As can be seen from Table 6.9, average costs per DU are fairly similar across the options ranging between €827 and €963 per substance per DU under the options and €850 under the baseline. The more significant factor governing the costs of the options and the baseline is the number of substances withdrawn (and hence number of products that will need to be re-formulated). As there may be more than one withdrawn substance in each DU product for re-formulation, however, it cannot be assumed that each substance withdrawn equals one product reformulated. I.e. there will be some overlap but the extent of this overlap is not known. Table 6.9: Reformulation costs to Downstream Users Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII No No Annex Diffuse/ III Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III Total tonnes of 19,181 30,052 49,026 production withdrawn Total number of substances withdrawn 1,305 2,025 3,324 Average production per substance (tonnes 14.7 14.8 14.7 per year) Maximum total cost of re-formulation - (€ € 81.0 € 126.9 € 203.5 millions) Average maximum total cost of re€ 62,054 € 62,681 € 61,222 formulation per substance (€s) Average number of downstream users per 73 74 74 substance Average Cost per downstream user per € 850 € 847 € 827 substance (€s) Annex VII+ - No Diffuse/ Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III Annex VII+ - No Annex III Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III 31,445 51,575 90,841 2,117 3,473 4,927 14.9 14.9 18.4 € 134.7 € 217.0 € 436.6 € 63,645 € 62,496 € 88,606 74 74 92 € 860 € 845 € 963 6.3.2 Impacts of withdrawal on innovation and competition - DUs The effects of substance withdrawal on competitiveness and innovation on DUs depend on the extent to which these enterprises are dependent on the specific substances in question in terms of turnover/ profitability, the availability of substitutes and/ or costs of reformulation or developing REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 74 new alternatives. Reputational impact may also be a consideration for some, in particular those that are final consumer facing. Generally speaking, larger companies are more resilient as regards the effects of substance withdrawal, as will be smaller highly profitable firms (unless it is the highly profitable items that are being withdrawn). Withdrawal will probably affect SMEs more than larger firms but there is little more that can be said without referring to the particular circumstances of different kinds of DUs and the substances in question. Given these general comments, working from the baseline and through the options the following changes are anticipated: Baseline (Current Annex III and Annex VII information): Given the large number and wide range of DUs, it is not possible to make very specific comments about the effects of the different options on competitiveness and innovation without specifying the type of DU and sector or sub-sector in question. However, it is apparent that the baseline situation has a lesser impact compared to the other options in terms of reformulation costs, substances withdrawn, number of DUs affected, etc. Withdrawals will change the current competitive balance between firms and industries. Where substances are withdrawn from the market users will have to either exit that market or invest in developing new substances or reformulating, incurring a cost that their competitors are not incurring and thus putting them at a disadvantage (e.g. where similar products are made with different processes/ substances, and one has been withdrawn but the other not). Where this cannot be done on an economic basis, users will be exiting that market. The extent to which innovation will be affected will depend on the cost/ risk/ return ratio in question. Removal of the diffuse/dispersive use criterion in Annex III: has the effect of increasing the number of substances required to generate and submit full tox and ecotox information. When combined with options for changing the information required in Annex VII, this has the following effects: o Annex VII (No Diffuse Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III): this leads to increasing the number of substances withdrawn by 55% (to 2,025), the tonnage withdrawn by a similar amount and also costs of reformulation, as compared to the baseline situation. The number of DUs affected rises from 95,000 to 150,000. Those suffering substance withdrawal that are not able to readily reformulate, or otherwise find alternatives, will be negatively impacted and their competitive position weakened, in some cases this might lead to exit. This is particularly likely to be the case with lower value added substances, and the industries and sectors dependent on those substances. The extent to which innovation will be affected will depend on profitability in the sector, and alternatives available, e.g. relocation to outside the EU/ EEA. o Annex VII+ (No Diffuse/Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III): Where there are slight changes to the information required (Annex VII+), the effect is to marginally increase the effects on competitiveness and innovation compared with the no change in Annex VII option. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 75 o Annex VII++ (No Diffuse/Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III): Where there are more significant changes to the information required (Annex VII++), the effect is to substantially increase the presence of the all the key factors that that drive changes in competitiveness and innovation. In the first place it increases the number of DUs affected by withdrawal to 453,000 (compared to 157,000 in the previous VII+ option). The number of substances withdrawn rises to 4,927 (a factor of 3.8 compared to the baseline). The total tonnage withdrawn also increases substantially to 90,841 tonnes. The net effect is that there is a substantial increase in the impact on competitiveness of the firms in question compared with the no change in Annex VII option. Many more will be side-tracked from their daily business as usual situation by having to review product line viability, considering reformulations, development of new products, or product withdrawals as a result. Lower margin sectors, or users of lower margin substances, are likely to be more negatively affected. Some consolidation and exit in product lines and numbers of is likely to occur. The rather negative state of the EU economy will make adjustment harder. The net effect on innovation, as indicated, is hard to specify with any deal of certainty, and will depend on cost/ profit/ risk calculations for the products affected. Removal of Annex III: This has the effect of requiring full tox and ecotox information to be submitted for all substances (so significantly increasing the number of substances submitting full information). When combined with options for changing the information required in Annex VII, this has the following effects: o Annex VII (No Annex III): Where there are no changes in the information required in Annex VII, the effect is to increase the number of DUs affected by 151,000 from the baseline 95,000 to 246,000. Substances withdrawn increase to 3,324 from the baseline position of 1305 (75%), and tonnage withdrawn increases by a factor of 2.6 from the baseline position. These are quite substantial increases as compared to the baseline and even the Annex VII and Annex VII+ options. As regards competitiveness, effects will be similar to those identified in other options, but on a different scale. Those experiencing substance withdrawals will find their competitive position weakened, especially if at short notice. Those in the relevant sectors not using the withdrawn substances will find their competitive positions improved. Users will have the options of reformulation-innovation/ consolidation/ exit. The net effect on innovation will be determined by the cost/ profit/ risk calculus. As indicated above, given the wide variety of DUs, it is not possible to generalise. o Annex VII+ (No Annex III): Where there are slight changes to the information required (Annex VII+), there are only marginal changes in the factors underlying competitiveness and innovation relative to no change in the information required in Annex VII. The net effect is that there will not be a material difference as compared to that situation. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 76 6.4 Impact of registration on manufacturers and importers (MIs) 6.4.1 Costs and impacts The overall costs of substance registration to MIs have been described in Section 5.4. As can be seen from the summary Table 6.10, MI registration costs make up between 68% and 87% of the total cost of the baseline and options to MIs (and between 26% and 39% overall). As can be observed from these data, despite the fact that costs of registering individual substances increase with higher information options (and alterations to Annex III), the weight of the registration costs in the totals is lower for the higher options. This is because a greater number of substances are withdrawn from the market in the higher options (hence there are fewer substances being registered in the higher options). Table 6.10: Summary and total costs of the options (all values expressed as Present Values discounted at 4%) Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII - Annex VII+ Annex VII+ Annex No No Annex - No - No Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ Dispersive Dispersive Dispersive Use Use Use Criterion in Criterion in Criterion in Annex III Annex III Annex III MI costs of registration € 206.4 € 258.7 € 346.7 € 263.9 € 356.0 € 323.7 (€ millions) Total Costs to MIs € 237.9 € 308.1 € 427.2 € 315.1 € 439.8 € 476.0 (€millions) Total costs (€ millions) € 525.2 € 693.8 € 977.4 € 713.8 € 1,012.8 € 1,236.3 MI costs of registration as % of total cost to MIs 87% 84% 81% 84% 81% 68% MI costs of registration as % of total costs (MIs and DUs) 39% 37% 35% 37% 35% 26% Where Section 5.4 has focussed on the costs of registering substances on a substance by substance basis, this section explores the impact of registration viewed across all of the substances in the portfolios of companies of different sizes and, hence, on company profit and loss accounts overall. Here, as noted in Section 5.4, 50% of the registration costs are assumed to be absorbed by the MIs (and 50% passed on to downstream users in increased prices). Table 6.11 provides the average cost of substance registration for companies of each size category. These costs are averaged out across all of the substances in the portfolios of each of the companies registering in the simulation and so provide information on the magnitude of costs absorbed for every substance registered. These costs are also provided per tonne of substance produced (over a four year period – so 10t of annual production = 40t total in the period). Variation between companies of different sizes In terms of variations in the scale of impacts between companies of different sizes (and the potential for disproportionate impacts on smaller companies), costs per substance (and per tonne of REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 77 substance) vary only slightly between the micro, small and medium enterprises. The Monte Carlo simulation data suggests that costs for the larger companies are slightly less than the SMEs owing to the fact that, for a proportion of substances, some or all of the Annex VII tox and ecotox are already available and, for these substances, it is assumed in the Monte Carlo model that this information is owned by (and must be purchased from) larger companies. This has a tendency to push down the costs for larger MIs when compared with smaller ones. Table 6.11: Average costs of substance registration for MIs Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII - Annex VII+ Annex VII+ Annex No No Annex - No - No Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ Dispersive Dispersive Dispersive Use Use Use Criterion in Criterion in Criterion in Annex III Annex III Annex III Average cost of registering a substance (across all substances in company portfolios) Micro companies € 2,370 € 3,104 € 4,418 € 3,174 € 4,541 € 4,142 Small Companies € 2,450 € 3,154 € 4,407 € 3,224 € 4,536 € 4,172 Medium Companies € 2,596 € 3,280 € 4,396 € 3,342 € 4,511 € 4,337 Large Companies € 2,230 € 2,568 € 3,184 € 2,630 € 3,319 € 3,951 Total € 2,401 € 3,112 € 4,374 € 3,181 € 4,499 € 4,159 Average cost of registering a substance per tonne of produced (across all substances in company portfolios) Micro companies € 72 € 94 € 134 € 96 € 138 € 126 Small Companies € 74 € 95 € 134 € 97 € 137 € 127 Medium Companies € 78 € 98 € 132 € 100 € 136 € 131 Large Companies € 63 € 73 € 91 € 75 € 95 € 113 Total € 72 € 94 € 132 € 96 € 136 € 126 Change in company average per substance registration costs between options Working from the baseline and through the options the following changes in company average per substance registration costs: Baseline (Current Annex III and Annex VII information): company average per substance registration costs under the baseline are around €2,400 per substance; Removal of the diffuse/dispersive use criterion in Annex III: has the effect of increasing the number of substances required to generate and submit full tox and ecotox information. When combined with options for changing the information required in Annex VII, this has the following effects: o Annex VII (No Diffuse Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III): Where there are no changes in the information required in Annex VII, the cost increases by €713 from the baseline to €3,112 per substance overall (an increase of 30%); o Annex VII+ (No Diffuse/Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III): Where there are slight changes to the information required (Annex VII+), the effect is to further increase the costs by an additional €69 per substance (relative to no change in the REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 78 information required in Annex VII) to €3,181 per substance. The net effect is that costs increase to €780 per substance million above the baseline (an increase of 32% - 2% higher than the no change in Annex VII option); o Annex VII++ (No Diffuse/Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III): Where there are more significant changes to the information required (Annex VII++), the effect is to further increase the costs by an additional €1,047 per substance (relative to no change in the information required in Annex VII). The net effect is that costs increase to €1,758 per substance above the baseline (an increase of 73% - 43% higher than the no change in Annex VII option); Removal of Annex III: This has the effect of requiring full tox and ecotox information to be submitted for all substances (so significantly increasing the number of substances submitting full information). When combined with options for changing the information required in Annex VII, this has the following effects: o Annex VII (No Annex III): Where there are no changes in the information required in Annex VII, the cost increases by €1,973 per substance from the baseline to €4,374 per substance overall (an increase of 82%); o Annex VII+ (No Annex III): Where there are slight changes to the information required (Annex VII+), the effect is to further increase the costs by an additional €125 (relative to no change in the information required in Annex VII) to €4,499 per substance. The net effect is that costs increase to €2,098 above the baseline (an increase of 87% - 5% higher than the no change in Annex VII option); Variations in costs As with the average costs provided in Section 5.4, the averages provided above conceal some variation in costs from one company to another. Figures 6.1 and 6.2 provide average per company costs per substance (Figure 6.1) and per tonne of substance (Figure 6.2) graphically, showing the frequency distribution of different magnitudes of cost under the different options. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 79 Figure 6.1: Average cost of registration for MIs per substance in portfolio Average cost of registration for MIs per substance in portfolio 25.0% 15.0% Baseline Annex VII No diffuse/dispersive use criterion Annex VII No Annex III 10.0% Annex VII+ No diffuse/dispersive use criterion Annex VII+ No Annex III Annex VII++ No diffuse/dispersive use criterion 5.0% -5.0% Present Value Cost per 1-10t substance in Company Portfolio REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 80 € 13,000 € 12,000 € 11,000 € 10,000 € 9,000 € 8,000 € 7,000 € 6,000 € 5,000 € 4,000 € 3,000 € 2,000 € 1,000 0.0% €0 Percent of manufacturers/importers 20.0% Figure 6.2: Cost of registration for MIs per tonne of chemical produced (and registered) Cost of registration for MIs per tonne of overall chemical production 16.0% 14.0% 10.0% Baseline 8.0% Annex VII No diffuse/dispersive use criterion Annex VII No Annex III Annex VII+ No diffuse/dispersive use criterion 6.0% Annex VII+ No Annex III Annex VII++ No diffuse/dispersive use criterion 4.0% 2.0% -2.0% Cost per tonne of production (€) REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 81 € 400 € 350 € 300 € 250 € 200 € 150 € 100 € 50 0.0% €0 Percent of manufacturers/importers 12.0% 6.4.2 Impacts of registration on innovation and competition - MIs For MIs, registration costs can impact on competitiveness and innovation in several ways. Increases in costs can lead to reductions in profitability, or increased prices, or both. MIs may wish to cease the production of a substance that they no longer consider worthwhile to produce given economic viability calculations. Another option adopted by MIs is to consolidate production, for example, to agree with a competitor that they produce the substance and buy it from them, to sell under their own brand. Or MIs may decide to use an existing substitute (and reformulate) or develop a new one Generally speaking, in the case of lower value substances there is likely to be some consolidation and reduction in competition. It is unlikely that this will drive significant innovation at this end of the market. Manufacturers of low value substances based in countries outside the EU will be reluctant to invest in registration, as will be their EU-based users, which might lead to the substances being imported in articles manufactured outside the EU. Given these general comments, working from the baseline and through the options the following changes are anticipated: Baseline (Current Annex III and Annex VII information): this suggests an average cost of registration of some €2,200 - €2,600 per substance, with total registration costs at some €206 million. While this does not appear as a significant sum for an individual firm, if some substances sell at €15 per tonne, and they are being sold in quantities of less than 10 tonnes per year, it is clearly going to be questionable whether to continue with production or not, with all the concomitant knock-on consequences that may follow for DUs as a result of withdrawal. On the other hand, if the substance is selling at €500 per tonne, it becomes more interesting, depending on how many tonnes are sold per year. However, it is worth bearing in mind that some relatively low value items, such as dyes, are imported in very low volumes, sometimes in quantities of less than 1 tonne per year. It is therefore likely that MIs working with relatively lower value and lower volume products will be more negatively influenced than higher value ones (assuming that they cannot increase prices), and there will probably be more consolidation and exit at that end of the market. Removal of the diffuse/dispersive use criterion in Annex III: has the effect of increasing the number of substances required to generate and submit full tox and ecotox information. When combined with options for changing the information required in Annex VII, this has the following effects: o Annex VII (No Diffuse Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III): this increases registration costs by 25.3% and average cost of registration per substance by 30%, which is relatively equally distributed between the micro, small, medium and larger firms. The effects of such an increase on the viability of low value substances should be readily apparent. It suggests quite a significant shift and effects on competitiveness will depend on the share of such products in the company’s portfolio. This may drive substitution with existing alternatives or innovation to develop alternatives, although it will probably be difficult to find appropriate low cost alternatives. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 82 o Annex VII+ (No Diffuse/Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III): Where there are slight changes to the information required (Annex VII+), the incremental effect vis a vis the situation where no changes are required is so marginal as to make it of no material difference as compared to the no change in Annex VII option; o Annex VII++ (No Diffuse/Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III): Where there are more significant changes to the information required (Annex VII++), the effect is to increase registration costs by 73% compared to the baseline and 30% compared to the situation where more a modest increase in the information requirements exists. The effect of this is reflected in the higher level of substance withdrawals as indicated in 6.2.2 above. The net effect in terms of competitiveness is that there will be a mix of withdrawals and consolidations, an overall concentration in the market, but more so than with previous options, which will have a negative impact on those firms and those DUs dependent on their products. As regards innovation, the extent to which this occurs will be driven by the costs/ profits/ risks/ calculus, but of course in a low tonnage market the value added per substance will be very important. Removal of Annex III: This has the effect of requiring full tox and ecotox information to be submitted for all substances (so significantly increasing the number of substances submitting full information). When combined with options for changing the information required in Annex VII, this has the following effects: o Annex VII (No Annex III): Where there are no changes in the information required in Annex VII, the effect is to increase registration costs to MIs by 68% above the baseline, and average registration costs by 82% above the baseline to €4,374. This is slightly higher for micro firms at €4,418, and less for large firms at €3,184. But it is clear that it will reduce the competitiveness of some substances significantly as compared to the baseline and accordingly firms supplying those products who wil restructure their product portfolios accordingly. As far as innovation is concerned, this will lead to some reformulations and search for existing substance substitutes, but it is worth bearing in mind that all new substances in this tonnage category are in this “expensive” No Annex III plus Annex VII option – they all have to gather the Annex VII info whereas the phase in (existing) substances do not. So at the moment there is a discrepancy between the two which goes against innovation (new substances) in this case. o Annex VII+ (No Annex III): Where there are slight changes to the information required (Annex VII+), the effect on competition and innovation is so marginal that it is not material relative to no change in the information required in Annex VII. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 83 6.5 Impact of registration on downstream users (DUs) 6.5.1 Cost and impact The overall costs of substance registration to DUs have been described in Section 5.4 where these are associated with 50% of the costs of substance registration being passed on to DUs in prices. As can be seen from the summary Table 6.12, DU registration costs make up between 43% and 72% of the total cost of the baseline and options to DUs (and between 26% and 39% overall). As can be observed from these data, despite the fact that costs of registering individual substances increase with higher information options (and alterations to Annex III), the weight of the registration costs in the totals is lower for the higher options. This is because a greater number of substances are withdrawn from the market in the higher options (hence there are fewer substances being registered in the higher options). Table 6.12: Summary and total costs of the options (all values expressed as Present Values discounted at 4%) Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII - Annex VII+ Annex VII+ Annex No No Annex - No - No Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ Dispersive Dispersive Dispersive Use Use Use Criterion in Criterion in Criterion in Annex III Annex III Annex III DU costs of registration € 206.4 € 258.7 € 346.7 € 263.9 € 356.0 € 323.7 (€ millions) Total costs to DUs € 287.4 € 385.7 € 550.2 € 398.7 € 573.0 € 760.3 (€millions) Total costs (€ millions) € 525.2 € 693.8 € 977.4 € 713.8 € 1,012.8 € 1,236.3 DU costs of registration as % of total cost to 72% 67% 63% 66% 62% 43% MIs DU costs of registration as % of total costs (MIs 39% 37% 35% 37% 35% 26% and DUs) In terms of the impacts of registration costs on individual DUs through price rises, little is known about the numbers of downstream users other than, despite the low tonnages involved, there may be several on average, each using low volumes of the substances. An estimate has been made on the cost of each option to individual downstream users by assuming five downstream users per tonne of each substance. This results in the average price increases per substance per downstream user provided in Table 6.13. As can be seen from these data, average price increases per substance per DU are fairly low and are similar across the options ranging between €73 and €100 per substance per DU under the options and €57 under the baseline. As with the average costs provided in Section 5.4, the averages provided in Table 6.12 conceal some variation in price increases from substance to another. Figure 6.3 provides price increases per DU per substance graphically, showing the frequency distribution of different magnitudes of price increases under the different options. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 84 Table 6.13: Average costs of registration for Downstream Users Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII - Annex VII+ Annex VII+ Annex No No Annex - No - No Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ Dispersive Dispersive Dispersive Use Use Use Criterion in Criterion in Criterion in Annex III Annex III Annex III Average cost of registering a substance (across all substances in company portfolios) Average tonnes production per 38.7 39.6 41.6 39.7 41.8 43.2 substance Average cost of registration for DUs per substance (price € 11.0 € 14.4 € 20.8 € 14.8 € 21.5 € 21.5 increase) (€ thousand) Average number of 193 198 208 199 209 216 DUs per substance Average price increase per DU per substance € 57 € 73 € 100 € 74 € 103 € 99 (€s) 6.5.2 Impacts of registration on innovation and competition - DUs From the point of view of this simulation registration impacts DUs primarily through costs passed on by price increases from MIs. For the DUs of higher value added items, whether manufactured in the EU or imported, it is unlikely that there will be significant, if any, impacts on competitiveness and innovation as the substances should be able to absorb costs and/or pass on price increases. There does not appear, prima facie, to be any significant driver for increased innovation from this point of view either. However, for users of lower cost substances, e.g. imported dyes, using them in formulations and creation of articles, here might be a reluctance to register leading to withdrawal (and thus pushing up registration costs for those remaining in the market). It is also conceivable that some articles (e.g. film coatings) might be withdrawn from the market unless those article producers can find alternative supplies or substitutes, so there could be some drivers for innovation in the lower value added items. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 85 Figure 6.3: Average cost of registration per DU per substance Average cost of registration per Downstream User per substance 20.0% 18.0% 14.0% 12.0% Baseline Annex VII No diffuse/dispersive use criterion 10.0% Annex VII No Annex III 8.0% Annex VII+ No diffuse/dispersive use criterion Annex VII+ No Annex III 6.0% Annex VII++ No diffuse/dispersive use criterion 4.0% 2.0% Cost per Downstream User per substance (€) REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 86 € 350 € 300 € 250 € 200 € 150 € 100 -2.0% € 50 0.0% €0 Percent of manufacturers/importers 16.0% Given these general comments, working from the baseline and through the options the following changes are anticipated: Baseline (Current Annex III and Annex VII information): In the baseline position, total registration costs borne by DUs is in the region of €206.4 million, while the average cost increase from registration per DU is €11,000. Average price increase per DU per substance is € 57. The effect on the competitiveness of the DU in question will be determined in large part by the share of the substance in the cost of the final or intermediate good they provide, and the and the extent to which the increase can be passed on or has to be absorbed. This is determined by the specific market situation in question. Removal of the diffuse/dispersive use criterion in Annex III: has the effect of increasing the number of substances required to generate and submit full tox and ecotox information. When combined with options for changing the information required in Annex VII, this has the following effects: o Annex VII (No Diffuse Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III): this has the result of increasing registration costs for DUs by 25.4% above the baseline, increasing the average cost of registration for DUs for each substance to €14,400 (from €11,000), and the average price increase for each DU for each substance by 27%. This represents quite a significant hike for the substances affected. For higher value substances, it will probably be possible to absorb more of the increase or to pass it on, and there might be relatively few competitive effects in that sector of the market. However, for lower value substances, it may no longer be economically justifiable to keep them in use which will lead to either withdrawal of the product or consolidation of suppliers who can supply in in higher more economically viable volumes. Alternatively, DUs will seek to reformulate or substitute with new or existing substances that do not incur such high costs. The DU market is so large and differentiated that it is difficult to be more specific without referring to the particular markets in question. o Annex VII+ (No Diffuse/Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III): Where there are slight changes to the information required (Annex VII+), the effect is so marginal that there are no material differences as compared with the no change in Annex VII option); o Annex VII++ (No Diffuse/Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III): Where there are more significant changes to the information required (Annex VII++), the effect is to shift the break-even point for those substances even higher. Registration costs increase by 57% as compared to the baseline and the average cost of registration for DUs per substance rises to €21,500 from the €11,000 baseline cost. It is highly likely that this will result in some significant review of portfolios, consolidation and exit, especially in the case of lower value substances. It should also lead to some significant innovative activity, depending of course on the expected costs, profits and risks in question. Lower cost solutions (e.g. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 87 reformulating with an existing substance) would tend to be tried first, as new substance development is quite expensive especially at lower tonnages. Removal of Annex III: This has the effect of requiring full tox and ecotox information to be submitted for all substances (so significantly increasing the number of substances submitting full information). When combined with options for changing the information required in Annex VII, this has the following effects: o Annex VII (No Annex III): Where there are no changes in the information required in Annex VII, the effect is to increase the DU costs of registration by 68% over the baseline, the average cost of registration for DUs per substance (price increase) from the baseline of €11,000 to €20,500 (nearly double) and the increase in average price paid per DU per substance rises from €57 to €100. These are quite significant increases, similar in effect to the VII+ and VII++ options above and should probably have similar consequences for competition and innovation. o Annex VII+ (No Annex III): Where there are slight changes to the information required (Annex VII+), the effect is, again, marginal and not materially different from the situation where there is no change in the information required in Annex VII. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 88 7 Benefits 7.1 Numbers of hazardous substances and properties identified The five options considered are expected to deliver benefits on the human health and the environment through the improvement of the data on substance classifications. This allows the provision to registrants and downstream users of better information on the hazards of the substances in form of enhanced or more appropriate risk management measures for the safe use and handling of the chemicals. In turn, the data on substance classifications feeds across into other legislation that requires that risks form substances and mixtures are managed (e.g. CAD, CMD). As discussed in Section 3, the options aim to generate better information (and on more substances) in particular regarding: Carcinogenicity, mutagenicity and reprotoxicity; Dermal, inhalation and/or oral toxicity; Long term toxicity; Aquatic toxicity; and Persistence, bioaccumulation and toxicity. Where it becomes available, better information on short term toxicity, long term toxicity and aquatic toxicity under the higher information options (Annex VII+ and VII++) will lead to the identification of: Substances for which there is better information on dermal/inhalation exposure limits; Substances identified with classification from STOT RE 1 or 2; and Number of aquatic toxic substances with enough information for PNEC where applicable. Table 7.1 presents the number of substances with the above hazard category classifications that the options are predicted to identify31 and the total costs for each option (as described in Section 5). Figure 7.1 presents the same information graphically as well as the total cost of each option. As can be seen from Figure 7.1, the Annex VII++ is the most expensive but, owing to the use of two tests for mutagenicity screening, also the one able to capture the highest number of mutagenic substances. Owing to additional information requirements in relation to dermal and inhalation endpoints and repeated dose toxicity, it is the only option able to capture substances with dermal, inhalation and/or oral toxicity, with better information on dermal/inhalation exposure limits, with long term toxicity and with classification for STOT RE 1 or 2. In terms of identifying substances that are acutely toxic to aquatic organisms, all information options have the same potential (in terms of the information required for identification) and the options vary only in respect of the number of substances undergoing that (full) testing. This is governed by Annex III and the associated options. However, in terms of information required to manage the risks associated with these substances, only the higher information options (Annex VII+ and VII++) are able to provide sufficient information for derivation of PNECs (which in turn, could be used to inform 31 For a description of the functioning of the model, see Section 4 and Annex 2. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 89 limit values). Under these options, a substance that is identified as acutely toxic to aquatic organisms must obtain information from a third test (where this is not currently required under Annex VII). Table 7.1: Total costs and number of substances identified per hazard category Baseline Annex VII - Annex VII - Annex VII+ No No Annex - No Diffuse/ III Diffuse/ Dispersive Dispersive Use Use Criterion in Criterion in Annex III Annex III Total costs (MIs and € 525.2M € 693.8M € 977.4M € 713.8M DUs - € millions) No. of substances classified for skin/eye 2,184 3,707 6,217 3,707 damage and irritation No. of substances classified for skin 448 798 1,238 798 sensitisation CMR 1A/1B 120 142 191 142 Dermal, inhalation 0 0 0 0 and/or oral toxicity With better information on dermal/inhalation 0 0 0 0 exposure limits Long term toxicity 0 0 0 0 With classification for 0 0 0 0 STOT RE 1 or 2 Acute Aquatic toxicity 677 1,100 1,680 1,110 With enough 0 0 0 1,454 information for PNECs PBTs 0 0 0 36 Annex VII+ - No Annex III Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III € 1,012.8M € 1,236.3M 6,217 3,707 1,238 798 191 250 0 4,068 0 4,351 0 1,175 0 65 1,680 1,110 2,024 1,454 58 36 The same is also true of the identification of PBT/vPvB substances. All of the higher information options (Annex VII+ and VII++) require PBT/vPvB screening and, where this suggests the potential for PBT/vPvB properties, further testing to inform PBT/vPvB assessment is required. Such screening and assessment is not currently required under Annex VII and, hence, it cannot be assumed that it will be undertaken and no PBTs/vPvBs will be identified. As with other common requirements and endpoints, any variation between the higher information options in terms of numbers of substances identified is associated only with the number of substances undergoing testing which, as already noted, depends on Annex III and associated options. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 90 Figure 7.1: Total costs (€ million) and number of substances identified per hazard categories REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 91 7.2 Impact of the Options on Damage Costs 7.2.1 Introduction A full economic analysis of the economic benefits of identifying additional substances and hazardous properties would require exposure-response functions for each chemical substance and for each human health and environmental effect. In addition, information on the population/area exposed would also be required to enable the prediction of economic value of damages avoided. To be strictly rigorous, such an analysis would also require consideration of the distribution of the benefits over time and selection of an appropriate discount rate. As detailed information of this kind does not currently exist, as with the Commission’s 2003 Extended Impact Assessment, an illustrative benefits approach must be employed to explore the benefits of the options and, therein, the relative performance of the options (and the baseline). In overview, this approach has involved: considering how many hazardous substances with different properties for classification are identified under the options and under the baseline (as in Figure 7.1); considering the nature of disorders, diseases and impacts associated with substances with such classifications; identifying an appropriate economic metric for a single case avoided or unit of environmental area improved for each type of substance classification identified (in €s); applying conservative assumptions concerning the numbers of cases avoided/environmental area improved per substance classification identified over a 30 year period following registration32; and combining the above to calculate conservative illustrative benefits (in €s) for each of the options, the baseline and also the total human health and environmental damages that could be avoided if all hazardous substances were identified. The latter can be calculated by considering the total number of hazardous substances/properties that are (as yet) unidentified. These steps and the outcomes are described in the following sub-sections. 7.2.2 Estimated damage costs of substances with different classifications Carcinogens and mutagens Owing to the severity of the health effects of exposure, the benefits of identifying CMRs and reducing/eliminating exposures are large compared with other, more minor, health effects. 32 Where 30 years is consistent with the illustrative benefits approach used in the Commissions Extended Impact Assessment of 2003. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 92 In terms of the benefits of identifying CMRs for the 1-10t substances, owing to the fact that testing for carcinogenicity and reproductive toxicity is not required for the 1-10t substances (under any of the options), only mutagenic substances will be identified for classification33 and, thus, only the ‘M’ component of CMRs will be identified for classification under the options (and the baseline). This, however, does not mean that the baseline and the options have no benefits in terms of reduced exposure to carcinogenic substances. Mutagens may also be carcinogens (even if they are not classified as such) and the risk management measures that would be required to reduce/eliminate exposure to mutagenic substances will also reduce/eliminate exposure to any carcinogenic effects that these same substances may have. Analysis of the harmonised classification in the Classification and Labelling Inventory suggests that 99% of substances classified as mutagenic 1A/1B are also classified as carcinogenic 1A/1B. On the basis of this, it is assumed that all of the mutagens identified are also carcinogens and benefits can be calculated using the monetary values assigned to lethal and non-lethal cancers. The following are assumed in terms of the value of each: lethal cancer - estimated at €2 million per case; and the willingness to pay to avoid a non-lethal cancer, estimated in €450,00034. Skin Sensitizers and irritants Skin sensitizers and irritants are present in a wide range of products and are the cause of skin disorders. According to EU-OSHA “occupational skin diseases are estimated to cost the EU €600 million each year, resulting in around 3 million lost working days. They affect virtually all industry and business sectors and force many workers to change jobs” 35. 33 Because under the Integrated Testing Strategy (ITS) limits consideration to mutagenicity testing (i.e. it does not extend to carcinogenic/reproductive effects). As such classifications can only be made for mutagenicity. 34 ECHA (2008): Guidance on Socioeconomic Analysis – Restrictions, page 84 uses a WTP value of €400,000, resulting in a 2014 value of around €450,000 (using OECD inflation rates). ECHA (2008) available at: http://echa.europa.eu/documents/10162/13641/sea_restrictions_en.pdf EU-OSHA Factsheet 40. Available at: https://osha.europa.eu/en/publications/factsheets/40 35 REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 93 In terms of the cost of health effects related to skin diseases the following values have been applied: The health care cost for “rash or other non-specific skin eruption” is around €72036 per case37; The lost productivity per skin disease case is around €72038; and therefore the total cost of a case of ‘skin disease’ is €1,440 per case. Acute and chronic toxic substances In terms of the value of health effects caused by acute and chronic toxic substances, the following values have been applied: 36 37 38 39 40 41 With regard to substances identified with dermal, inhalation and/or oral toxicity classifications, the medical treatment cost of €1,37039 has been assumed to be the average cost in the EU for a ‘non-fatal poisoning incident’; the value has been added to €1,200 of lost productivity (assuming that a poisoning event results in 5 days’ sick leave) to give a total cost of €2,570 for a ‘non-fatal poisoning incident’; With regard to substances identified with long term toxicity classifications, kidney disease has been considered as an end-point; the medical treatment of €4,50040 has been assumed to be the average cost in the EU; the value has been added to €4,800 of lost productivity (assuming that a chronic kidney disease results in 20 days’ sick leave) to give a total cost of €9,300 for a ‘kidney disease not requiring a transplant’; With regard to substances with classification for STOT RE 1 or 2, kidney disease resulting in transplant has been considered as end-point; the medical treatment of €38,50041 has been applied; the value has been added to €9,600 of lost productivity (assuming that a poisoning event results in 40 days’ sick leave) to give a total cost of €48,100 for a ‘kidney disease requiring a transplant’. NHS (2013): National Schedule of Reference Costs Year: 2012-13. The medical treatment cost per patient is around £550. Applying an exchange GBP/EUR of 1.3 (19/01/2015), the medical treatment costs is of around £720. Schedule Reference Costs available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nhsreference-costs-2012-to-2013 This is the cost in the UK; it is assumed that the average cost in the EU28 is equivalent. Labour productivity per hour worked is €32.1 in the EU28 (http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=tsdec3 10); assuming a work day of 7.5 hours and three days’ sick leave per case per year (Pickvance et al, 2005) gives €722. Unit cost referring to “Poisoning, Toxic, Environmental and Unspecified Effects” (UK National Schedule of Reference Costs for the year 2012-13). Average unit cost referring to “Chronic Kidney Disease with and without Interventions” plus the average cost of haemodialysis, filtration or peritoneal dialysis (UK National Schedule of Reference Costs for the year 2012-13). Average unit cost referring to “Kidney Transplant” plus “Live Kidney Donor Screening” plus “Kidney PreTransplantation Work-up of Live Donor” plus “Kidney Pre-Transplantation Work-up of Recipient” plus “Examination for Post-Transplantation of Kidney of Recipient” plus “Live Donation of Kidney” (UK National Schedule of Reference Costs for the year 2012-13). REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 94 Environment For an indication of the level of environmental damages that would have to be prevented by the policy options in order to make their implementation economically justified, the willingness to pay of UK households for improving the quality of water bodies to different Water Framework Directive Status levels is used as an indicator42. So called NWEBS (National Water Environment Benefit Survey values) are used in the UK as part of the assessment of the costs and benefits of catchment level projects to increase the status of water bodies. Total NWEB values reflect improvement in six components of waterbody status. These are: fish; other animals such as invertebrates; plant communities; the clarity of the water; condition of the river channel/flow of water; and the safety of the water for recreational contact. Where projects/actions only target some of these components the approach used in the UK is to divide the overall NWEB values equally between the six components and then multiply by the number of components that are affected by the action/project. The annual average per component NWEB values applied in England and Wales are as follows for the following levels of improvement: from “bad” to “poor”: €4,083 per km river per year per component; from “poor” to “moderate”: €8,793 per km river per year per component; from “moderate” to “good”: €14,243 per km river per year per component. To estimate the benefits of identifying substances which are toxic to aquatic life it has been assumed that three components will be affected (fish; other animals such as invertebrates; plant communities). It is also assumed that: The identification of acute aquatic toxic substances but without an associated PNEC would result in the quality of water bodies improving from “bad” to “poor” at a value of €12,250 per km river per year; The definition of PNECs would result in the setting of more stringent environmental risk management measures, with the effect of improving the quality of water bodies from “bad” to “moderate” at a value of €26,380 per km river per year; and The identification of a PBT, and therefore it’s phasing out over the time, would result in the quality of water bodies improving from “bad” to “good” at a value of €42,730 per km river per year. Values applied Table 7.2 summarises the metrics applied to each of the hazardous property endpoints, the monetary values applied to those metrics and the numbers of substances that would be identified under the options (as in Table 7.1). The table also shows the number of substances that would be identified as meeting different classifications if all substances were subjected to toxicological and ecotoxicological testing (including in vivo testing for mutagenicity). 42 Environment Agency (2013): Updating the National Water Environment Benefit Survey values: summary of the peer review. All benefit values are in 2012 prices. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/291464/LIT_8348_42b25 9.pdf REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 95 Table 7.2: Metrics applied to hazardous property endpoints, associated monetary values and the numbers of substances identified under the options Number of substances identified with hazardous properties Annex VII++ Annex VII Annex VII+ - No Monetary No Diffuse/ No Diffuse/ Annex Annex Diffuse/ Substance properties Valuation metric used Value applied Dispersive Dispersive Baseline VII - No VII+ - No Dispersive to metric Use Use Annex III Annex III Use Criterion in Criterion in Criterion in Annex III Annex III Annex III Substances classified for Cost of an incidence of ‘skin € 1,440 2,184 3,707 6,217 3,707 6,217 3,707 skin/eye damage and irritation disease’ Substances classified for skin Cost of an incidence of ‘skin € 1,440 448 798 1,238 798 1,238 798 sensitisation disease’ Cost of a lethal case of cancer € 2,000,000 CM(R) 1A/1B 120 142 191 142 191 250 Cost of a non-lethal case of € 450,000 cancer Substances with better information on exposure limits Cost of a ‘poisoning event’ € 2,570 4,351 for oral and dermal/inhalation toxicity Substances with long-term Cost of ‘kidney disease not € 9,300 1,175 toxicity information requiring transplant’ Substances that would have Cost of ‘kidney disease € 48,100 65 classification for STOT RE 1 or 2 requiring transplant’ Improvement of WFD water Substances classified for acute body status from ‘Bad’ to € 12,250 677 1,100 1,680 aquatic toxicity ‘poor’ per km2 Substances classified for acute Improvement of WFD water aquatic toxicity with enough body status from ‘Bad’ to € 26,380 0 0 0 1,454 2,024 1,454 information for PNECs ‘moderate’ per km2 Improvement of WFD water PBTs/vPvB substances body status from ‘Bad’ to € 42,730 0 0 0 36 58 36 ‘good’ per km2 * this number of substances could only be detected by applying in vivo testing to all substances ** this number of substances could only be detected by applying testing to all substances (as occurs in the absence of Annex III) REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 96 Substances with hazardous properties across all 1-10t substances 6,217** 1,238** 370* 5,986** 1,616** 90** - 2,024** 58** 7.2.3 Damage costs avoided Applying the values described above, damage costs avoided per year can be calculated by multiplying the numbers of each type of classification identified by the applicable monetary value. This can then be multiplied by a factor denoting the number of health cases avoided (or km of river water body improved) per substance classification identified. Clearly, the latter factor is not known but can be expected to be uniform across the options. A minimum expected value can be derived by applying conservative estimates of the numbers of health cases avoided or km river waterbody improved per substance classification identified. For the purpose of developing illustrative benefit estimates the following conservative assumptions have been applied: the identification of a new human health classification results in the avoidance of one case of disease/disorder (for the appropriate classification metric) per year on average (for example, the identification of a CMR results in the avoidance of one lethal case of cancer per year and, in this case, one non-lethal case per year on average); the identification of a substance that is toxic to aquatic life results in the improvement of WFD status of one km of river43 (i.e. the total benefits of identifying each substance with aquatic toxicity are equivalent to the improvement of 1km of river per substance). Minimum damage costs avoided under the baseline The baseline situation reflects the current requirements under REACH. Applying the values and conservative assumptions set out above, Table 7.3 provides the calculated annual damage costs avoided under the baseline based on one health case avoided per year and one km river waterbody improved per substance classification identified. In the table, annual benefits in terms of damage costs avoided have also been aggregated to provide total present value benefits over a 30 year period (consistent with the Commission’s Extended Impact Assessment of 2003). Present value human health benefits are assumed to begin in the year after registration (2019) and are calculated over the period to 2048 (discounted at 4%). Environmental benefits are assumed to take longer to be established and are assumed to be accrued in the period 2023-2048 (and are also discounted at 4%). Applying this conservative illustrative approach suggests that the total PV benefits under the baseline (current situation) would be around €5,263 million. The estimated costs are €525.2 million. This, in turn, suggests that the benefit:cost ratio under the baseline is around 10.02. 43 Note: not one per year REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 97 Table 7.3: Calculated damage costs avoided under the baseline assuming one case avoided per year/km improved per hazardous substance identified Number of Number of Damage costs Monetary cases substances avoided (Number of identified with Value avoided per Valuation metric used cases avoided/km hazardous applied to year/km improved x monetary properties under metric waterbody value (€ millions) the baseline improved Calculation of Annual Human Health Benefits Cost of an incidence of ‘skin € 1,440 € 3.1 2,184 2,184 disease’ Cost of an incidence of ‘skin 448 448 € 1,440 € 0.6 disease’ Cost of a lethal case of cancer € 2,000,000 € 240.0 120 120 Cost of a non-lethal case of € 450,000 € 54.0 cancer Total human health damage costs avoided (Benefits) - € millions per year € 297.8 Calculation of Annual Environmental Benefits Improvement of WFD water 677 677 € 12,250 € 8.3 body status Human health damage costs avoided (Benefits) - € millions per year € 297.8 Environmental damage costs avoided (Benefits) - € millions per year € 8.3 Total Present Value (PV) Benefits over the period (discounted at 4%) Total PV human health damage costs avoided over the benefit period (between € 5,149.4 2019 and 2048 inclusive) - € millions total Total PV environmental damage costs avoided over the benefit period (between € 113.3 2023 and 2048 inclusive) - € millions total Total damage costs avoided (Benefits) - € millions € 5,263 Total Costs of complying with the requirements - € millions € 525.2 Benefit:Cost Ratio 10.02 By way of comparison, a recent Defra UK study44 the ongoing Defra (UK) assessment of the costs and benefits of the stock of regulations identified that benefit:cost ratios were between 1.1 and 18.9 across all environmental regulation in the UK and the chemicals and GMOs regulation in particular was identified to have the highest benefit:cost ratio (18.9). Comparison of the benefit:cost ratio of 10.2 for the baseline (as shown in Table 7.3) with these values suggest that the assumptions and approach used to estimate the benefits errs on the conservative side and may underestimate rather than overestimate the benefits. Minimum damage costs avoided under the options and the baseline Comparison of benefit:cost ratio for the baseline with information from Defra (UK) suggests that the metric applied to calculate the benefits provides a reasonable approximation of reality (even if perhaps an underestimate of the true benefits). As one cannot reasonably expect the factors45 44 Defra (2015): Emerging Findings from Defra’s Regulation Assessment - First update covering 2012 see https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-costs-and-benefits-of-defra-s-regulations 45 For example, the number of health cases avoided/length of waterbody improved per substance classification newly identified. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 98 underpinning these benefits to vary from the baseline or from one option to another, the same assumptions and metrics can be applied to the other options to develop estimates of the associated benefits. The same approach can also be applied to the expected numbers of substances with (as yet unknown) hazardous properties that were the starting point for modelling the successfulness of the different testing strategies applied under the baseline and the options. These substances represent the population of substances that are currently in use but have (as yet unknown) hazardous properties46. Applying the same benefit metrics to these substances provides an estimate of the current total damage costs from human and environmental exposure to hazardous 1-10t substances over the same 30 year period. Applying the approaches described above to the numbers of substances and classifications identified under the options provides estimates of the estimated damage costs avoided under the baseline and under the options. Table 7.4 provides: the resulting total PV benefits (from 2018 to 2048); a comparison of benefit with cost for each option; the estimated impact of each option on the total avoidable damage costs; and the residual damage costs (continuing damages from substances whose hazardous properties have not been identified under a given option). These data are discussed in more detail in Section 8. 46 All of these substances would only be identified by applying in vivo testing to all 1-10t substances. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 99 Table 7.4: Estimated damage costs avoided under the baseline and under the options Damage Metric Baseline Annex VII - No Diffuse/ Dispersive Use Criterion in Ann.III Annual Human Health and Environmental Benefits - €millions per year ‘Skin diseases’ (irritant) € 3.1 € 5.3 € 0.6 € 1.1 ‘Skin disease’ (sensitiser) € 240.0 € 284.0 Lethal cancer Non-lethal cancer € 54.0 € 63.9 ‘Poisoning’ ‘Kidney disease not requiring transplant’ ‘Kidney disease requiring transplant’ € 8.3 € 13.5 WFD water body status (aquatic toxics) WFD water body status (PBTs) Human health damage costs avoided (Benefits) - € millions per year Environmental damage costs avoided (Benefits) - € millions per year Damage costs avoided Annex VII+ - No Annex VII Diffuse/ Dispersive No Ann.III Use Criterion in Ann.III Annex VII+ - No Ann.III Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ Dispersive Use Criterion in Ann.III Total Avoidable Damage Costs € 9.0 € 1.8 € 382.0 € 86.0 € 20.6 - € 5.3 € 1.1 € 284.0 € 63.9 € 38.4 € 1.5 € 9.0 € 1.8 € 382.0 € 86.0 € 53.4 € 2.5 € 5.3 € 1.1 € 500.0 € 112.5 € 11.2 € 10.9 € 3.1 € 38.4 € 1.5 € 9.0 € 1.8 € 740.0 € 166.5 € 15.4 € 15.0 € 4.3 € 53.4 € 2.5 € 297.8 € 354.4 € 478.7 € 354.4 € 478.7 € 644.2 € 952.0 € 8.3 € 13.5 € 20.6 € 39.9 € 55.9 € 39.9 € 55.9 Total Present Value (PV) Benefits over the period 2018-2048 (discounted at 4%) - €millions Total Present Value (PV) Benefits (discounted at 4%) Total PV human health damage costs avoided € 5,149.4 over the benefit period (between 2019 and 2048 inclusive) - € millions total Total PV environmental damage costs avoided € 113.3 over the benefit period (between 2023 and 2048 inclusive) - € millions total Total damage costs avoided (Benefits) Total Costs Benefit:Cost Ratio Impact on damage costs (% of total costs avoided) Residual damages (€m) € 6,128.1 € 8,277.4 € 6,128.1 € 8,277.4 € 11,139.9 € 16,461.6 € 184.1 € 281.2 € 545.0 € 763.3 € 545.0 € 763.3 € 5,262.7 € 525.2 10.02 € 6,312.2 € 693.8 9.10 € 8,558.6 € 977.4 8.76 € 6,673.1 € 713.8 9.35 € 9,040.8 € 1,012.8 8.93 € 11,685.0 € 1,236.3 9.45 € 17,224.9 31% 37% 50% 39% 52% 68% € 11,962.2 € 10,912.8 € 8,666.3 € 10,551.8 € 8,184.2 € 5,540.0 REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 100 8 Conclusions 8.1 Comparing the Options 8.1.1 Introduction Table 8.1 provides the overall costs, benefits and benefit:cost ratios for all options for changing information requirements. These are grouped into: information options also involving changes to Annex III that involve the elimination of the diffuse/dispersive use criterion such that all substances predicted (by QSARs or existing information) to have any human health or environmental hazards would be required to gather the in vitro toxicological and ecotoxicological information appropriate to the information option; and information options also involving the removal of all Annex III criteria such that all substances would be required to gather the in vitro toxicological and ecotoxicological information appropriate to the information option. The table also provides a verbal summary of the changes as well as information on: the residual damage costs under the option/baseline – which is simply the avoidable damage costs (in Table 7.4) less the damage costs avoided under the option/baseline from the total; and impact on avoidable damage costs – which is simply the damage costs avoided under the option/baseline expressed as a percentage of the total avoidable damage costs (in Table 7.4). 8.1.2 Costs and benefits Benefit:cost ratios provide an indication of the performance of an option in economic terms. Where the ratio is greater than one the benefits (in terms of damage costs avoided) outweigh the financial costs (meaning that the action is justified in economic terms). The larger the benefit:cost ratio, the more justifiable the option is in economic terms. As noted in Section 7, benefits are expressed in terms of damage costs avoided, are calculated on the basis of the avoidance of one incidence of ‘disease’ per year per substance identified with a human health classification and improvement in 1km of waterbody for every substance identified with a classification for aquatic toxicity43. When compared with recent information on the costs and benefits of environmental regulation (Defra 201544) these are likely to be underestimated (rather than overestimated). REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 101 Table 8.1: Summary table of the PV Costs and Benefits of the Options and Impact on Avoidable Damage Costs Changes brought about under different options for information requirements Current Annex III Current Ann. VII Current Ann. VII Removal of the diffuse/dispersive use criterion in Annex III Ann. VII+ Information Ann. VII++ Information Current Ann. VII Removal of Annex III Ann. VII+ Information There are no changes to the information in Annex VII and Annex III remains the same There are no changes in the information required in Annex VII but changes to Annex III act to increase the number of substances required to submit full tox and ecotox information There are slight increases in the tox and ecotox information in Annex VII and changes to Annex III act to increase the number of substances required to submit that tox and ecotox information There are more significant increases in the tox and ecotox information in Annex VII and changes to Annex III act to increase the number of substances required to submit that tox and ecotox information There are no changes in the information required in Annex VII but removing Annex III means that all substances are required to submit full tox and ecotox information There are slight increases in the tox and ecotox information in Annex VII but removing Annex III means that all substances are required to submit full tox and ecotox information. Cost (€m) Benefit (€m) B/C ratio Rank B/C ratio Residual damages (€m) Percentage of total damage costs avoided Rank Impact on damage costs € 525.2 € 5,263 10.02 1 € 11,962 31% 6 € 693.8 € 6,312 9.10 4 € 10,913 37% 5 € 713.8 € 6,673 9.35 3 € 10,552 39% 4 € 1,236.3 € 11,685 9.45 2 € 5,540 68% 1 € 977.4 € 8,559 8.76 6 € 8,666 50% 3 € 1,012.8 € 9,041 8.93 5 € 8,184 52% 2 REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 102 Throughout the whole estimation of costs and benefits, the same data and assumptions have applied equally across all of the options and the baseline. As such, whilst the damage costs and damage costs avoided may in fact be higher, changes to assumptions and data will affect each of the options equally in terms of benefits and costs. Thus, whilst benefit:cost ratios for each option would be different with different assumptions for the number of health/environment cases avoided, the relative performance of each option is unlikely to change significantly (i.e. any changes would affect the benefit:cost ratios equally). Examination of the benefit:cost ratios provided in Table 8.1 leads to a number of observations: despite the large variation in the magnitude of costs, the benefit:cost ratios suggest that all options are justified in economic terms – in other words, for all options the value of the benefits (expressed in €s) significantly exceeds the costs; the current requirements perform very slightly better than the other options, providing (at least) €10.02 of benefits for every €1.00 of cost. However, this is only €0.57 more than the benefits from the next best performing option in economic terms (the increased Annex VII+ information combined with removal of the diffuse/dispersive use criterion in Annex III); the ‘worst’ performing options include those where the current Annex VII requirements are retained. Again, however, these perform only slightly worse than the baseline; and the variation between benefit:cost ratios is relatively very small. As such no option performs significantly better or significantly worse than another option (including the baseline). On the basis of these observations, no firm conclusions can be drawn concerning the ‘best’ option in economic terms. In short, within the scope of the options considered, an increase in cost provides a roughly proportionate increase in benefit in terms of damage costs avoided. There is no significant difference between the options in terms of benefit:cost ratios (particularly considering the uncertainties inherent in the estimation of both costs and benefits). 8.1.3 Impact on damage costs Whilst comparison of benefit:cost ratios does not reveal any clear differences between the options or the baseline, comparison of the PV damage costs avoided for each option with the total PV avoidable damage costs (€17,225 million) reveals significant differences between the options. As might be expected from the observation that benefits are directly proportional to cost, the more expensive options perform significantly better than the cheaper options (the cheapest being the baseline). Thus, if economic performance (in terms of benefits versus costs) and impact on damage costs were the only factors to consider in selecting the appropriate option, the rank order of preference would be that dictated by the level of impact on the total damage costs in Table 8.2. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 103 8.2: Impact of options on total avoidable damage costs Rank Option Annex VII++ - No Diffuse/ Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III Annex VII+ - No Annex III 1 2 3 Annex VII - No Annex III Annex VII+ - No Diffuse/ Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III Annex VII - No Diffuse/ Dispersive Use Criterion in Annex III Baseline 4 5 6 Cost (€m PV) Damage Costs Avoided (€m PV) Impact on avoidable damage costs (% of total damage costs avoided) Residual damages (€m PV) € 1,236.3 € 11,685.0 68% € 5,540.0 € 1,012.8 € 9,040.8 52% € 8,184.2 € 977.4 € 8,558.6 50% € 8,666.3 € 713.8 € 6,673.1 39% € 10,551.8 € 693.8 € 6,312.2 37% € 10,912.8 € 525.2 € 5,262.7 31% € 11,962.2 8.1.4 Impacts on competition and innovation Impact on damage costs is not, however, the only deciding factor when selecting the most appropriate option in terms of the combination of Annex III requirements and toxicological and ecotoxicological information for 1-10t substances. Perhaps unfortunately, the decision is more complicated because which option is ‘best’ depends on: what level of residual damages are ‘acceptable’? what level of burden on the chemical industry is sustainable? Neither of these can be robustly quantified and both, to a greater or lesser extent, will vary depending on who is asked. Whilst further consideration of these issues can be informed by the quantitative and qualitative information on business impacts (such as that provided in Section 6), it is not possible to make any firm conclusions on the acceptability or sustainability of the options. This means that the study can make no firm conclusions or recommendations on which option is ‘best’ or most appropriate and the final decision on which option should be adopted must be made by other means (considering the information provided on business impacts). Section 6 of this report provides a detailed commentary on business impacts of the options including on innovation and competitiveness. In terms of competitiveness, the general conclusions that can be drawn are that all the options considered increase registration costs and lead to withdrawal levels above the baseline position. The impact of higher costs on company competitiveness and survival will vary significantly depending on the sub-sectors in question. Research carried out for this project suggested that 1-10t substances would be found in the following sectors: rare earth metals, dyes, pigments, fragrances, cosmetics, lubricants, surfactants, photonics, electro-optics, and electronics. A good many of the higher value substances are imported, and would be able to absorb registration costs, with concomitant knock-on effects further downstream. Some imports, such as dyes, and substances manufactured and used in products such as lubricants or surfactants would have difficulty absorbing registration costs which would mean MIs might be unwilling to register them and create problems for DUs. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 104 As costs of the different options increase, it is also probable that impacts on the competitiveness of smaller firms will be more negatively affected than larger ones. This is due to the probability that smaller firms are more dependent on low volume substances than their large counterparts, and also because they tend to have fewer resources available to adjust to changes in competitiveness brought about by changes in legislation and especially those leading to higher cost levels. As regards innovation, the consequences of moving towards higher information and higher cost options in these low volume substances are somewhat more indeterminate. The extent to which businesses will invest in various approaches depends on cost/ profits/ risk calculations. These vary by the innovations in question (e.g. reformulation with an existing substance/ developing a new substance/ changing the product so that the substance is no longer needed), the size of the market in question and the value of the relevant substances, and risks, which in the present economic environment in the EU are quite high and would discourage innovation unless outcomes are quite high and certain. Again, higher value added substances would tend to be able to justify more expensive innovation costs, and larger firms would be more likely to dispose over the required resources if innovation was the option decided upon. 8.1.5 The missing option Anticipating that there will be further deliberations within the Commission concerning which option is most appropriate, it seems inevitable that there will be a question as to the merits of a sixth option. This would entail maintaining the current Annex III requirements (as in the baseline) but increasing the toxicological and ecotoxicological information requirements slightly to match those of the Annex VII+ option. The specification for this study limited consideration to the five options and the baseline (as presented throughout the report) and so this option has not been examined in detail. Nonetheless, it is worth considering what the costs and benefits of the option are likely to be using the information in Table 8.1 on the costs and benefits of Annex VII versus Annex VII+ options. Both of the options for changing Annex III requirements have sub-options which involve, on the one hand, leaving the information requirements as at present (Annex VII) and, on the other, increasing the information requirements slightly (Annex VII+). There is no difference between the sets of options in terms of the numbers of substances being required to generate information, only the level of information that is required to be generated for these substances. As such, any differences are associated only with the additional cost of generating the additional information and the additional benefit that this information is likely to bring. Of the two sets of Annex III options that could be compared, the no diffuse use trigger option bears bar far the greatest similarity to the baseline47 and so is most suitable for comparison. Comparing the costs and benefits of these options (in Table 8.1) suggests that extending Annex VII information 47 This set of options only differs from the baseline because the dispersive/diffuse substances identified by QSARs with a possible classification are included. The no Annex III option requires all substances to generate information (and no QSAR assessment for Annex III to be undertaken). REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 105 requirements to match the Annex VII+ information requirements increases the costs by around 3% relative to the current information requirements and the benefits by around 6%. Applying these increases to the baseline (Annex VII) provides the projected costs and benefits of the missing option (that of retaining Annex III as at present but increasing the information requirements). The resulting estimated costs and benefits of this option are provided in Table 8.3. Table 8.3: Estimated PV costs and benefits of increasing only the information requirements Cost (€m) Benefit (€m) Residual B/C Impact (% of total damages ratio damage costs (€m) avoided) Current Annex III and Annex VII information requirements (the € 525.20 € 5,262.7 € 11,962.2 10.02 31% baseline) Current Annex III and extended Annex VII+ information € 540.34 € 5,563.6 € 11,661.3 10.30 32% requirements Comparison of the benefits and costs of this missing option with the baseline suggest a slightly higher benefit:cost ratio (10.3) compared with the baseline (10.02) making it the only option likely to perform better than the baseline in purely economic efficiency terms. However, this is only very slightly better and, for the reasons already mentioned, the difference between this missing option and the baseline (or the other options) cannot be considered significant. Extending the information requirements in Annex VII slightly (to match the Annex VII+ option) but leaving the Annex III requirements as at present would deliver an estimated minimum additional benefit of €301 million compared with the baseline. This would cost an additional €15.1 million across all 20,000 1-10t substances (an increase in costs of around €757 or 3% per substance on average) compared with the baseline. This is equivalent to an average increase in costs per MI of €172 per substance. When compared with the baseline (current requirements) the impacts on innovation and competitiveness of this option are likely to be so small as to be indistinguishable from the baseline but the benefits may be more significant. Reproducing and updating Table 8.1, Table 8.4 provides a summary table for all options including the ‘missing’ option. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 106 Table 8.4: Summary table of the PV Costs and Benefits of the Options and Impact on Avoidable Damage Costs Changes brought about under different options for information requirements Current III Annex Current Ann. VII Ann. VII+ Information* Current Ann. VII Removal of the diffuse/dispersiv e use criterion in Annex III Ann. VII+ Information Ann. VII++ Information Current Ann. VII Removal Annex III of Ann. VII+ Information There are no changes to the information in Annex VII and Annex III remains the same There are slight increases in the tox and ecotox information in Annex VII and no changes to Annex III There are no changes in the information required in Annex VII but changes to Annex III act to increase the number of substances required to submit full tox and ecotox information There are slight increases in the tox and ecotox information in Annex VII and changes to Annex III act to increase the number of substances required to submit that tox and ecotox information There are more significant increases in the tox and ecotox information in Annex VII and changes to Annex III act to increase the number of substances required to submit that tox and ecotox information There are no changes in the information required in Annex VII but removing Annex III means that all substances are required to submit full tox and ecotox information There are slight increases in the tox and ecotox information in Annex VII but removing Annex III means that all substances are required to submit full tox and ecotox information. Cost (€m) Benefit (€m) B/C ratio Rank B/C ratio Residual damages (€m) Percentage of total damage costs avoided Rank Impact on damage costs € 525.2 € 5,263 10.02 2 € 11,962 31% 7 € 540.3 € 5,564 10.30 1 € 11,661 32% 6 € 693.8 € 6,312 9.10 5 € 10,913 37% 5 € 713.8 € 6,673 9.35 4 € 10,552 39% 4 € 1,236.3 € 11,685 9.45 3 € 5,540 68% 1 € 977.4 € 8,559 8.76 7 € 8,666 50% 3 € 1,012.8 € 9,041 8.93 6 € 8,184 52% 2 *Imputed values REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 107 REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 108 Annex 1 Defining the Annex VII+ and VII++ Options A1.1 Overview The Annex VII+ and VII++ options have been developed by considering the merits of including each of the following human health and environmental endpoints/sections that currently apply to 10-100t substances under Annex VIII: Human Health Endpoints (Toxicology): o 8.1 Skin irritation /skin corrosion o 8.2 Eye irritation o 8.3 Skin sensitisation o 8.4 Mutagenicity o 8.5 Acute toxicity o 8.6 Repeated dose toxicity o 8.7 Reproductive toxicity o 8.8 Toxico-kinetics Environmental Endpoints (Ecotoxicology): o 9.1 Aquatic toxicity o 9.2 Degradation o 9.3. Fate and behaviour in the environment For each endpoint, the following sections comment on the merits of applying Annex VIII requirements considering the use/usefulness of the information in the context of the 1-10t substances. A1.2 Human Health Endpoints (Mammalian Toxicology) A1.2.1 Section 8.1 Skin irritation /skin corrosion Current Requirements and Use of Information Table A1.1 provides a summary of existing requirements in Annexes VII and VIII and the intended use of the information generated for the endpoint skin irritation/corrosion. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 109 Table A1.1 Section 8.1 Skin irritation /skin corrosion Annex Requirements and Adaptations to Requirements VII Following consecutive steps: (1) an assessment of the available human and animal data; (2) an assessment of the acid or alkaline reserve; (3) in vitro study for skin corrosion; and (4) in vitro study for skin irritation Steps 3 and 4 is not needed where: 1) and 2) indicates classification as corrosive to the skin or irritating to eyes; the substance is flammable in air at 2 room temperature ; the substance is classified as very toxic in contact with skin; or an acute toxicity study by the dermal route does not indicate skin irritation up to the limit dose level 8.1.1. In vivo skin irritation 8.1.1 not required where: Use of Information in Relation to Substances Testing at Each Level Provides information with respect to the following classifications: Skin corrosive (1A, 1B & 1C) Skin irritation (2) These trigger actions under downstream regulation in respect of risk/exposure control. VIII Provides further information with respect classification as Skin irritation (2) and, for Annex VIII substances, provides additional information to CSA. the substance is classified as corrosive to the skin or as a skin irritant; the substance is a strong acid (pH ≤ 2,0) or base (pH ≥ 11,5); the substance is flammable in air at room temperature2; the substance is classified as very toxic in contact with skin; or an acute toxicity study by the dermal route does not indicate skin irritation up to the limit dose level (2 000 mg/kg body weight) Comments on the Merits of Extending Requirements for 1-10t Substances The addition of the Annex VIII in vivo skin irritation endpoint to Annex VII would not result in any classification not already established by the in vitro studies of Annex VII. As CSA is not relevant to 110t substances the addition of this endpoint is likely to have little or no additional benefit in terms of risk/exposure and control. As such, this endpoint should not be included in the information options. Final Options for Increasing Information Requirements Annex VII+ Maintain as at present Annex VII++ As Annex VII+ REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 110 A1.2.2 Section 8.2 Eye irritation Current Requirements and Use of Information Table A1.2 provides a summary of existing requirements in Annexes VII and VIII and the intended use of the information generated in relation to eye irritation. Table A1.2: Section 8.2 Eye Irritation Annex Requirements and Adaptations to Requirements VII Following consecutive steps: (1) an assessment of the available human and animal data; (2) an assessment of the acid or alkaline reserve; and (3) in vitro study for eye irritation Step 3 is not need where: 1) and 2) indicates classification as corrosive to the skin or irritating to eyes3; or the substance is flammable in air at room temperature2 8.2.1. In vivo eye irritation 8.2.1 not required where: Use of Information in Relation to Substances Testing at Each Level Provides information with respect to the following classification: Serious eye damage/irritation (1 &2) This triggers actions under downstream regulation in respect of risk/exposure control. VIII the substance is classified as irritating to eyes with risk of serious damage to eyes; the substance is classified as corrosive to the skin and provided that the registrant classified the substance as eye irritant3; the substance is a strong acid (pH ≤ 2,0) or base (pH ≥ 11,5); or the substance is flammable in air at room 2 temperature Provides further information with respect classification as Serious eye damage/irritation (1 &2) and, for Annex VIII substances, provides additional information to CSA. Comments on the Merits of Extending Requirements for 1-10t Substances The addition of the Annex VIII in vivo eye irritation endpoint to Annex VII would not result in any classification not already established by the in vitro studies of Annex VII. As CSA is not relevant to 110t substances the addition of this endpoint is likely to have little or no additional benefit in terms of risk/exposure and control. As such, this endpoint should not be included in the information options. Final Options for Increasing Information Requirements Annex VII+ Maintain as at present Annex VII++ As Annex VII+ REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 111 A1.2.3 Section 8.3 Skin sensitisation Current Requirements and Use of Information Table A1.3 provides a summary of existing requirements in Annexes VII and VIII and the intended use of the information generated in relation to skin sensitisation. Table A1.3: Section 8.3 Skin Sensitisation Annex Requirements and Adaptations to Requirements VII Following consecutive steps: (1) an assessment of the available human, animal and alternative data; (2) In vivo testing (The Murine Local Lymph Node Assay (LLNA) is the firstchoice method for in vivo testing Step 2 is not needed where: Use of Information in Relation to Substances Testing at Each Level Provides information with respect to the following classification: Skin sensitiser (1) This triggers actions under downstream regulation in respect of risk/exposure control. (1) the available information indicates classification for skin sensitisation or corrosivity; (2) the substance is a strong acid (pH ≤ 2,0) or base (pH ≥ 11,5); or the substance is flammable in air at 2 room temperature There is no further testing for this endpoint in Annex VIII VIII Comments on the Merits of Extending Requirements for 1-10t Substances There are no additional requirements in Annex VIII to extend to Annex VII. Final Options for Increasing Information Requirements Annex VII+ Maintain as at present A1.2.4 Annex VII++ As Annex VII+ Section 8.4 Mutagenicity Current Requirements and Use of Information Table A1.4 provides a summary of existing requirements in Annexes VII and VIII and the intended use of the information generated in relation to mutagenicity. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 112 Table A1.4: Section 8.4 Mutagenicity Annex Requirements and Adaptations to Requirements VII 8.4.1. In vitro gene mutation study in bacteria Further testing would be considered following a positive result VIII 8.4.2. In vitro cytogenicity study in mammalian cells or in vitro micronucleus study 8.4.2 not required where: adequate data from an in vivo cytogenicity test are available, or the substance is known to be carcinogenic category 1A or 1B or germ cell mutagenic category 1A, 1B or 2 8.4.3. In vitro gene mutation study in mammalian cells 8.4.3 only required following a negative result in Annex VII (8.4.1.) and Annex VIII (8.4.2.). Not needed where adequate data from a reliable in vivo mammalian gene mutation test are available VIII Use of Information in Relation to Substances Testing at Each Level A positive result in the GMBact triggers further studies following ECHA Integrated Testing Strategy (ITS) working through higher Annexes (including Annex VIII testing as appropriate). Ultimately this provides information with respect to classification as Mutagen 1B/2 which, in turn, triggers actions under downstream regulation in respect of risk/exposure control and substitution. Annex VIII substances must complete a battery of three mutagenicity tests comprising the GMBact (Ames) test in Annex VII, the CAbvitro (8.4.2) and the MNTvitro (8.4.3). Following ECHA Integrated Testing Strategy (ITS), a positive result in any of the three tests results in further testing working through higher Annexes to in vivo tests. Ultimately this provides information with respect to classification as CMR 1A/1B/2 which, in turn, triggers actions under downstream regulation in respect of risk/exposure control and substitution and also information for the CSA. Comments on the Merits of Extending Requirements for 1-10t Substances Annex VII requirements for the 1-10t substances could, in principle, be adjusted by either substituting the single test (GMBact) with an alternative single test or by adding one or more tests to it for a two or three test screening battery. The aim of introducing either of these two changes would be to increase the sensitivity of the screening tests applied so as to increase the number of genotoxic substances detected. There is a considerable volume of complex academic literature on the effectiveness (or otherwise) of various methods and approaches for the detection of genotoxicity and carcinogenicity and the usefulness (or otherwise) of different screening tests and alternative approaches. However, Kirkland et al (2005)48 provide an analysis of the performance of individual tests and batteries of two and three tests. Drawing from the Kirkland et al (2005) study, Table A1.5 provides data on the sensitivity and specificity of different tests and testing batteries where sensitivity refers to the correct 48 Kirkland, D., Aardema, M., Henderson, L., Müller, L. (2005): Evaluation of the ability of a battery of three in vitro genotoxicity tests to discriminate rodent carcinogens and non-carcinogens: I. Sensitivity, specificity and relative predictivity, Mutation Research - Genetic Toxicology and Environmental Mutagenesis, 584 (12), pp. 1-256. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 113 identification of genotoxic substances (i.e. as genotoxic) and specificity refers to the correct identification of non-genotoxic substances (i.e. as non-genotoxic). As can be seen from the table, there is some variation between Kirkland et al results for sensitivity and specificity depending on how equivocal results were considered. Considering the actual treatment of equivocal results under REACH ECHA’s Guidance on Information Requirements and Chemical Safety Assessment - Chapter R.7a: Endpoint Specific Guidance identifies that these would require repeat testing until a conclusion can be made. There is much that can be interpreted from the data in Table A1.5. However, for the options which are the main consideration of this study, the following can be observed in relation to the possibilities of substituting the Annex VII GMBact with an alternative or extending the number of tests in the form of a two or three test battery: Introducing a two or three test battery Substances produced in quantities of >10t per year are subjected to a battery of three tests under REACH comprising GMBact, CAbvitro and MNTvitro. A positive result in any one test triggers further mutagenicity studies (culminating in in-vivo testing). Such a three test battery could, in theory, also be applied to the 1-10t substances or, alternatively a two test battery comprising any two of the above could be applied. When screening the options to identify those to be taken forward, the first consideration is the relative effectiveness of two versus three batteries of tests. The UK Committee on Mutagenicity of Chemicals in Food, Consumer Products and the Environment (COM) produced Guidance on a Strategy for Genotoxicity Testing of Chemical Substances 49 in 2011 which reviewed the effectiveness of testing strategies comparing batteries of two versus three tests using adjusted data based on the Kirkland et al (2005) study (provided in Table A1.5). 49 the UK Committee on Mutagenicity of Chemicals in Food, Consumer Products and the Environment (COM) (2011) Guidance on a Strategy for Genotoxicity Testing Of Chemical Substances. http://www.iacom.org.uk/guidstate/documents/COMGuidanceFINAL.pdf REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 114 Table A1.5: Sensitivity and Specificity of Different Tests and Testing Batteries (after Kirkland et al 2005) Test/Testing Sensitivity Specificity ‘False Decision Rules in Decision rules in relation battery positives’ relation to whether to whether a substance is a substance is considered not genotoxic considered (specificity) genotoxic (sensitivity) GMBact If absence of a negative result counts as positive 60% 74% 26% (equivocal counts as positive) If a clear positive result is required (equivocal 59% 77% 23% result counts as negative) CAbvitro If absence of a negative result counts as positive 70% 45% 55% (equivocal counts as positive) If a clear positive result is required (equivocal 66% 55% 45% result counts as negative) MNTvitro If absence of a negative result counts as positive 81% 31% 69% (equivocal counts as positive) If a clear positive result is required (equivocal 79% 54% 46% result counts as negative) GMBact plus If at least one clear If two clear negative 94% 12% 88% MNTvitro positive result results required required If equivocal in both or in one and negative in the 94% 32% 68% other (absence of positive counts as negative) If equivocal counts as If equivocal in both or in positive one and negative in the 97% 5% 95% other (absence of negative counts as positive) GMBact plus If at least one clear If three clear negative 91% 5% 95% MNTvitro positive result results required plus MLA required If equivocal in one or two and negative in the others 91% 15% 58% (absence of positive counts as negative) If equivocal counts as If equivocal in both or in positive one and negative in the 93% 1% 99% other (absence of negative counts as positive) GMBact plus If at least one clear If three clear negative 85% 23% 77% CAbvitro positive result results required plus MLA required If equivocal in one or two and negative in the others 85% 30% 70% (absence of positive counts as negative) If equivocal counts as If equivocal in both or in positive one and negative in the 90% 16% 84% other (absence of negative counts as positive) REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 115 The UK COM (2011) review concluded that there is no convincing evidence that a three-test battery identifies more carcinogens/genotoxins than a two-test battery comprising GMBact and MNTvitro and that there is a significantly greater potential for non-genotoxins/carcinogens to be identified as potential genotoxins (requiring further data to be generated needlessly). Although the Kirkland et al (2005) data in Table A1.5 does not provide information on the exact combination of the three test battery that applies to the >10 substances (and could be considered as a theoretical option for the 1-10t substances), the conclusion that can be drawn from the available data is that a two test battery comprising GMBact and MNTvitro is the better option and that there is no benefit (and potentially significant cost) from extending requirements to a three test battery (by the addition of CAbvitro). As such, the three test battery should be eliminated from further consideration. Substitute GMBact Test With regard to substituting the current GMBact test with an alternative, there are two choices available from Annex VIII, namely CAbvitro and MNTvitro. From Table A1.5, both of these tests would appear to perform slightly better than the GMBact test in terms of the correct identification of genotoxins (sensitivity) with MNTvitro performing best (MNTvitro correctly identifies around 35% more genotoxins than GM Bact and CAbVitro 12-17% more than GMBact). In relation to the correct identification of non-genotoxins (specificity) and false positives, however, the opposite is true and GMBact performs much better than both of the alternatives and MNTvitro performs worst (with MNTvitro identifying 46-69% of non-genotoxins as potential genotoxins, CAbvitro 45-55% compared with only 23-26% for GMBact). This means that any substitution of the Annex VII GMBact test, whilst it may increase the detection of genotoxic substances, will also falsely identify a greater and significant proportion of nongenotoxins as potential genotoxins for further testing through Annexes VIII to X (including in vivo testing). In addition, both of the alternatives are significantly more expensive to undertake than GMBact with CEFIC (2012) test cost data suggesting the costs of testing are € 3,465 for GMBact, € 20,080 for CAbvitro and € 16,518 for MNTvitro. Substitute GMBact Test or Extend to Two Test Battery? In terms of the implications of substituting the current GMBact in Annex VII with either CAbvitro or MNTvitro or with a two test battery comprising GMBact plus MNTvitro, Table A1.6 provides illustrative estimates of the changes in total costs of mutagenicity testing under Annex VII and the numbers of genotoxins and non-genotoxins identified for further testing. The illustration is calculated on the basis of every 10,000 substances submitting full Annex VII information and assumes that 1.85%50 of these (185) would be identifiable as genotoxic in vivo if they were subjected to such tests (and therefore 96.5% as not genotoxic in vivo). The numbers are not intended to provide an actual estimate of the costs of the options but, rather, the means to compare the options on a like for like basis to enable the identification of the best candidates for further consideration. 50 1.85% of substances on the CLI have a classification for mutagenicity. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 116 Table A1.6: Illustrative Estimates of Changes Costs of Mutagenicity Testing under Annex VII and Numbers of Genotoxins and Non-genotoxins Identified for Further Testing GMBact + GMBact CAbvitro MNTvitro MNTvitro Illustrative number undergoing full testing in Annex VII: 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 Of which assumed genotoxic in vivo 185 185 185 185 9,815 9,815 9,815 9,815 Of which non-genotoxic in vivo 51 Cost of each test € 3,465 € 20,080 € 16,518 € 19,983 Total Cost of Annex VII Testing (assuming no existing € 34.6 € 200.8 € 165.2 € 199.8 test information and all require a test) (Million €) Number Requiring Further mutagenicity studies: 2,515 5,033 5,792 8,388 110 126 148 176 Of which assumed genotoxic in vivo Of which non-genotoxic in vivo 2,405 4,908 5,644 8,212 Regarding the substitution of the GMBact test with an alternative test, the data in Table A1.6 suggest that either choice of alternative test is associated with a substantial increase in costs for generating Annex VII information and a substantial increase in the number of non-genotoxic substances required to generate additional mutagenicity data (culminating in in vivo testing). This is accompanied by a slight to moderate increase in the number of genotoxic substances that might be identified. In relation to an extension to a two test battery, this is also associated with a substantial increase in costs for Annex VII and an even larger increase in the numbers of non-genotoxic substances required to generate additional information on mutagenicity. However, compared with options for substituting the GMBact test with an alternative test, the increase in numbers of genotoxic substances identified is more significant. Maintaining the current situation (where the GMBact is the only mutagenicity test in Annex VII), appears likely to be the most appropriate option in terms of the balance between identification of genotoxic substances, the total costs of testing for mutagenicity in Annex VII and minimising the extent to which non-genotoxic substances are falsely identified as potentially genotoxic and are required to perform further mutagenicity testing (including in vivo) at significant additional cost. Neither of the extension options (substitution of GMBact or use of a two test battery) would appear to offer the same balance. However, in the interests of providing a thorough comparison, it is considered worth including one of these options as part of the higher Annex VII++ option for extending information requirements. Of the options available the two test battery should be considered for the Annex VII++ option given the substantial increase in the detection of genotoxic substances. Final Options for Increasing Information Requirements Annex VII+ Maintain current approach (GMBact) 51 Annex VII++ Extend to a two test battery (GMBact plus MNTvitro) Costs have been drawn from the 2012 CEFIC testing catalogue which lists the average cost of testing for each endpoint. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 117 A1.2.5 Section 8.5 Acute toxicity Current Requirements and Use of Information Table A1.7 provides a summary of existing requirements in Annexes VII and VIII and the intended use of the information generated in relation to acute toxicity. Table A1.7: Section 8.5 Acute Toxicity Annex Requirements and Adaptations Requirements VII 8.5.1. By oral route Not required where: to the substance is classified as corrosive to the skin; or a study on acute toxicity by the inhalation route (8.5.2) is available (requirement for 10 to 100 tonne substances) 8.5.2. By inhalation 8.5.2. only required where exposure of humans via inhalation is likely taking into account the vapour pressure of the substance and/or the possibility of exposure to aerosols, particles or droplets of an inhalable size 8.5.3. By dermal route 8.5.3 only required where: inhalation of the substance is unlikely; skin contact in production and/or use is likely; and the physicochemical and toxicological properties suggest potential for a significant rate of absorption through the skin Use of Information in Relation to Substances Testing at Each Level Provides information with respect to the following classification: • Acute oral toxicity (1-4) & STOT SE (1-3) VIII VIII This triggers actions under downstream regulation in respect of risk/exposure control. Provides additional classifications in relation to Acute inhalation/dermal toxicity (1-4) & STOT SE (1-3) Provides additional information to CSA on NOAELs and routes of exposure/safe concentrations and risk reduction. Comments on the Merits of Extending Requirements for 1-10t Substances The addition of inhalation/dermal toxicity endpoints to Annex VII would enable the identification of additional classifications for 1-10t substances that would not otherwise be available and may be important from the perspective of managing risks in the workplace. However, relative to oral toxicity testing, the cost of any additional testing is relatively high (around €12,300 for inhalation and €2,500 for dermal compared with around €1,500 for oral based on CEFIC testing cost estimates). As such, the addition of (particularly inhalation) needs to be carefully considered from a cost and benefit point of view. Here, were a 1-10t substance to be identified with a new classification for acute oral toxicity (as per Annex VII) this change in classification would already trigger downstream regulation in respect of worker health and safety and product safety. This in turn would require consideration of exposure and safe use of the substance by manufactures and downstream users. As such, the identification of additional toxicity classifications in relation to inhalation and/or dermal toxicity would not, in itself, REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 118 trigger any additional regulation (as this has already been triggered by the oral toxicity classification). It would, however, have an impact on the measures put in place to reduce worker exposure as such there is some merit in considering the addition of these endpoints to the information requirements for 1-10t substances. Analysis of the CLI in Table A1.8 suggests that around 91-96% of substances classified for acute oral toxicity also have a classification for dermal and/or inhalation. Similarly, 4-9% of substances classified for dermal and/or inhalation toxicity do not have a classification for oral toxicity. This, then, would tend to suggest that classification for oral toxicity could be used as a trigger for further studies on inhalation or dermal toxicity (depending on the routes of likely exposure). Such an approach may capture 91-96% of the substances that are toxic via dermal or inhalation routes but eliminate a substantial amount of testing on substances that are non-toxic. Table A1.8: Analysis of substances classified for toxicity via oral, inhalation or dermal routes. Classification combinations Number classified based Number classified on Harmonised based on all Classifications only substances classified on CLI Toxicity classifications from CLI Oral (H300-303) 1,602 44,532 Oral (H300-303) or Dermal (H310-313) 1,635 45,027 Oral (H300-303) or Inhalation (H330-333) 1,750 46,001 Oral (H300-303) or Dermal (H310-313) or Inhalation 1,769 46,261 (H330-333) Dermal (H310-313) 619 15,631 Dermal (H310-313) or Inhalation (H330-333) 1,006 19,442 Inhalation (H330-333) 750 17,490 Inferences Dermal not oral 33 495 Inhalation not oral 148 1,469 Inhalation or dermal but not oral 167 1,729 inhalation or dermal and oral 1,602 44,532 Percentage of substances classified as acute toxic oral that also have a classification for dermal and/or 91% 96% inhalation Percentage of substances with a classification for 9% 4% dermal and/or inhalation but not oral However, as the costs of additional testing would still not be insignificant and the additional information may or may not alter risk management measures applied via parallel regulation this option should be included for the VIII++ option alone. Final Options for Increasing Information Requirements Annex VII+ As at present Annex VII++ Classification for acute oral toxicity in accordance with Section 8.5.1 of Annex VII triggers consideration of dermal and inhalation toxicity in accordance with Sections 8.5.2 and 8.5.3 of Annex VIII. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 119 A1.2.6 Section 8.6 Repeated Dose Toxicity Current Requirements and Use of Information Repeated dose toxicity is not considered in Annex VII. Table A1.9 provides a summary of existing requirements in Annex VIII and the intended use of the information generated in relation to repeated dose toxicity. Table A1.9: Section 8.6 Repeated Dose Toxicity Annex Requirements and Adaptations to Requirements VIII 8.6.1. Short-term repeated dose toxicity study (28 days), one species, male and female, most appropriate route of administration, having regard to the likely route of human exposure. 8.6.1 not required where: a reliable sub-chronic (90 days) or chronic toxicity study is available, provided that an appropriate species, dosage, solvent and route of administration were used; a substance undergoes immediate disintegration and there are sufficient data on the cleavage products; or relevant human exposure can be excluded in accordance with Annex XI Section 3. Further studies shall be proposed by the registrant or may be required by ECHA in cases of: Use of Information in Relation to Substances Testing at Each Level Information on this endpoint allows classification for single target organ toxicity - repeated exposure (STOT RE 1 and 2). Information is also used in the CSA and, as part of this, for the assessment of T in PBT/vPvB assessment. failure to identify a NOAEL in the 28 or 90 days study unless the reason is absence of adverse toxic effects; toxicity of particular concern (e.g. serious/severe effects); indications of an effect for which the available evidence is inadequate for toxicological and/or risk characterisation. In such cases it may also be more appropriate to perform specific toxicological studies that are designed to investigate these effects (e.g. immunotoxicity, neurotoxicity); or particular concern regarding exposure (e.g. use in consumer products leading to exposure levels which are close to the dose levels at which toxicity to humans may be expected) Comments on the Merits of Extending Requirements for 1-10t Substances Testing for short term repeated dose toxicity in accordance with Section 8.6.1 of Annex VIII is estimated to cost nearly €78,000 in the CEFIC testing catalogue. This far exceeds the total cost of testing for all endpoints currently in Annex VII (indeed it is eight times the estimated average total registration costs for 1-10t substances calculated in Phase 1 - €9,500) . As such, requiring such a test for all 1-10t substances is likely to hugely increase the costs of registration for manufacturers and importers of these substances with the effects on competition and innovation likely to be equally significant. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 120 Given this, the option of requiring short term repeated dose toxicity testing for all of the 1-10t substances can be eliminated as it would be impractical to implement. However, if a suitable trigger could be identified from information gathered in relation to, for example, classification in relation to acute toxicity or biodegradation, this could be considered in the higher of the two options (Annex VII++). The most obvious trigger would be classification for acute toxicity 4 in accordance with Section 8.5.1 of Annex VII. Final Options for Increasing Information Requirements Annex VII+ Maintain as at present (no short repeated dose toxicity testing) A1.2.7 Annex VII++ Short term repeated dose toxicity in accordance with Section 8.6.1 of Annex for substances identified with a classification for acute toxicity 4 in accordance with Section 8.5.1 of Annex VII. Section 8.7 Reproductive toxicity Current Requirements and Use of Information As with short term repeated dose toxicity, reproductive toxicity is not considered in Annex VII. Table A1.10 provides a summary of existing requirements in Annex VIII and the intended use of the information generated in relation to reproductive toxicity. Table A1.10: Section 8.7 Reproductive Toxicity Annex Requirements and Adaptations to Requirements VIII 8.7.1.Screening for reproductive/ developmental toxicity, one species (OECD 421 or 422), if there is no evidence from available information on structurally related substances, from (Q)SAR estimates or from in vitro methods that the substance may be a developmental toxicant. Use of Information in Relation to Substances Testing at Each Level Information on this endpoint allows considerations in relation to classification as toxic for reproduction. 8.7.1 not required if the substance is: known to be a genotoxic carcinogen and appropriate risk management measures are implemented; known to be a germ cell mutagen and appropriate risk management measures are implemented; relevant human exposure can be excluded in accordance with Annex XI section 3; or a pre-natal developmental toxicity study (Annex IX, 8.7.2) or a twogeneration reproductive toxicity study (Annex IX, Section 8.7.3) is available. If such a conclusion is reached the information is used in the CSA as part of assessment of potential exposure limits and recommended risk management measures. If a substance is known to have an adverse effect on fertility, meeting the criteria for classification as toxic for reproduction category 1A or 1B: May damage fertility (H360F), and the available data are adequate to support a robust risk assessment, then no further testing for fertility will be necessary. However, testing for developmental toxicity must be considered. Classification as Toxic to Reproduction 1A/1B also triggers parallel regulation on worker safety and product safety. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 121 If a substance is known to cause developmental toxicity, meeting the criteria for classification as toxic for reproduction category 1A or 1B: May damage the unborn child (H360D), and the available data are adequate to support a robust risk assessment, then no further testing for developmental toxicity will be necessary. However, testing for effects on fertility must be considered. In cases where there are serious concerns about the potential for adverse effects on fertility or development, either a pre-natal developmental toxicity study (Annex IX, Section 8.7.2) or a twogeneration reproductive toxicity study (Annex IX, Section 8.7.3) may be proposed by the registrant instead of the screening study Comments on the Merits of Extending Requirements for 1-10t Substances Testing for reproductive toxicity in accordance with Section 8.7.1 of Annex VIII is estimated to cost €97,000 in the CEFIC testing catalogue. This far exceeds the total cost of testing for all endpoints currently in Annex VII (indeed it is ten times the estimated average total registration costs for 1-10t substances calculated in the 2012 Phase 1 study - €9,500). As no suitable trigger to focus testing on a discrete group of 1-10t substances appears to be available, if it were applied to the 1-10t substances, reproductive toxicity testing would be required for all substances (other than those identified as genotoxic). This would hugely increase the costs of registration for manufacturers and importers of these substances with the effects on competition and innovation likely to be equally significant. Given this, the option of requiring reproductive toxicity testing for the 1-10t substances can be eliminated as it would be impractical to implement. Final Options for Increasing Information Requirements Annex VII+ Maintain as at present (no reproductive toxicity testing) A1.2.8 Annex VII++ As Annex VII+ Section 8.8 Toxico-kinetics Current Requirements and Use of Information Toxico-kinetics is not considered in Annex VII. Table A1.11 provides a summary of existing requirements in Annex VIII and the intended use of the information generated in relation to toxicokinetics. Table A1.11: Section 8.8 Toxico-kinetics Annex Requirements and Adaptations to Requirements VIII 8.8.1. Assessment of the toxicokinetic behaviour of the substance to the extent that can be derived from the relevant available information. Use of Information in Relation to Substances Testing at Each Level Information on toxicokinetics is used in exposure and risk characterisation as part of CSA. It is also used in the assessment of B in PBT/vPvB. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 122 Comments on the Merits of Extending Requirements for 1-10t Substances As noted in the table, for substances subject to Annex VIII (>10t per year) information on toxicokinetic behaviour is used alongside other toxicity information as part of chemical safety assessment (CSA). As CSA does not apply to 1-10t substances including such studies for all of the 1-10t substances has questionable benefit even if the estimated cost of the assessment is relatively small compared with other Annex VIII endpoints (€ 1,278 – CEFIC Testing catalogue). That said, toxicico-kinetic information is useful in relation to the assessment of B in PBT/vPvB assessment where screening identifies potential PBT/vPvB properties. However, screening and assessment of PBT/vPvB properties is not currently required for the 1-10t substances in spite of the fact that information to inform that screening is already present within Annex VII. This is because all requirements in relation to PBT/vPvB screening and assessment (as set out in Annex XIII) currently apply only to those substances required to undertake CSA (i.e. excluding 1-10t substances). Changing the requirements so that Annex XIII PBT/vPvB screening and assessment also applies to the 1-10t substances is an option that will be considered for both of the extended information options (Annex VII+ and VII++) for 1-10t substances. As such, gathering information on toxico-kinetics would be one of the options available to manufacturers and importers in support of any PBT/vPvB assessment triggered by the outcome of PBT/vPvB screening (which does not require information on toxico-kinetics). More information on the options in respect of PBT/vPvB screening and assessment is provided in Section 2.3.2. Final Options for Increasing Information Requirements Annex VII+ Assessment of the toxicokinetic behaviour of the substance in accordance with Section 8.8.1 may be carried out where a new requirement to screen for PBT/vPvB properties identifies a substance as a potential PBT/vPvB and this will be useful to assessment. Annex VII++ As Annex VII+ A1.3 Environmental Endpoints (Ecotoxicology) A1.3.1 Section 9.1 Aquatic toxicity Current Requirements and Use of Information Table A1.12 provides a summary of existing requirements in Annexes VII and VIII and the intended use of the information generated in relation to aquatic toxicity. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 123 Table A1.12: Section 9.1 Aquatic Toxicity Anne Requirements and Adaptations to Requirements x VII 9.1.1. Short-term toxicity testing on invertebrates (preferred species Daphnia) 9.1.1. Not required where: VII VIII there are mitigating factors indicating that aquatic toxicity is unlikely to occur, e.g. substance is highly insoluble in water or the substance is unlikely to cross biological membranes; a long-term aquatic toxicity study on invertebrates is available; or adequate information for environmental classification and labelling is available. Long-term toxicity testing may be considered instead of 9.1.1. The longterm aquatic toxicity study on Daphnia (Annex IX, section 9.1.5) is considered if the substance is poorly water soluble 9.1.2. Growth inhibition study aquatic plants (algae preferred) 9.1.2. Not required where there are mitigating factors indicating that aquatic toxicity is unlikely to occur e.g. substance is highly insoluble in water or the substance is unlikely to cross biological membranes 9.1.3. Short-term toxicity testing on fish (or long term study, if preferred) 9.1.3. Not required where: there are mitigating factors indicating that aquatic toxicity is unlikely to occur; or a long-term aquatic toxicity study on fish is available. Long-term aquatic toxicity testing as described in Annex IX shall be considered if the CSA indicates the need to investigate further effects on aquatic organisms. The choice of the appropriate test(s) will depend on the results of the CSA. The long-term aquatic toxicity study on fish (9.1.6) shall be considered if the substance is poorly water soluble Use of Information in Relation to Substances Testing at Each Level In combination with one another, test endpoints in Annex VII provide information with respect to the following classifications: Hazardous to the aquatic environment (acute 1 & chronic 1-4); and Hazardous to the aquatic environment acute (1). Serious eye damage/irritation (1 &2) Unlike the human health endpoints, no specific requirements under parallel regulation are triggered by such a classification unless specifically identified by the regulator. Changes in classification results in alterations to general guidance on safe use in safety data sheets (SDS) in relation to the environment. In combination with one another, test endpoints in Annex VIII provides further information with respect to the following classification: Hazardous to the aquatic environment acute (1) In addition, in combination with information from the Annex VII endpoints, information is used to derive Predicted No Effect Concentrations (PNECs) that are used in exposure assessment and risk characterisation for the environmental compartment and for assessment of T in PBT/vPvB assessment in CSA. The CSA enables the identification of appropriate recommended risk REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 124 VIII 9.1.4. Activated sludge respiration inhibition testing 9.1.4. Not required where: no emission to a sewage treatment plant; or there are mitigating factors indicating that microbial toxicity is unlikely to occur; the substance is found to be readily biodegradable and the applied test concentrations are in the range of concentrations that can be expected in the influent of a sewage treatment plant. 9.1.4. may be replaced by a nitrification inhibition test if available data show that the substance is likely to be an inhibitor of microbial growth or function, in particular nitrifying bacteria management measures that must be applied by manufacturers and downstream users. PNECs may also potentially be used by the regulator in relation to the need for wider controls under, for example, Article 16 of the Water Framework Directive or the setting of environmental quality standards (EQS) and drinking water limits. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 125 Comments on the Merits of Extending Requirements for 1-10t Substances Adding a third test in the form of short-term toxicity testing on fish (9.1.3) to the requirements for 110t substances is unlikely to lead to the identification of any additional classifications (as these classifications should be already be established by testing in Annex VII). The main purpose of the test(s) in Annex VIII is to identify a PNEC for the purpose of CSA which, as noted earlier, is not required for the 1-10t substances. On first inspection, then, as there is no CSA for 1-10t substances, there would appear to be little benefit in extending the information requirements by adding a short-term toxicity test on fish as a third aquatic toxicity test. However, even in the absence of CSA, there are benefits from deriving PNECs for substances classified as hazardous to the aquatic environment. Here, unlike the human health endpoints discussed in Section 2.2, changes in classification in relation to aquatic toxicity do not automatically trigger action to assess and limit exposure under parallel regulation. Rather, it is up to the regulator to propose that action is required under that regulation and what the Environmental Quality Standard (EQS) should be. For example, the main provision of the Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC (WFD) with regard to hazardous substances is Article 16. Together with the daughter Directive 2008/105/EC on Environmental Quality Standards in the Field of Water Policy (EQS Directive), Article 16 of the WFD provides for the establishment of a list of priority substances, which present a significant risk to or via the aquatic environment, identified on the basis of risk assessment. For the identification of priority substances, the WFD demands data specifically on the aquatic toxicity of substances and, for this, information that would lead to the derivation of a PNEC would be useful. As such, there is some merit to adding testing in accordance with Section 9.1.3 - short-term toxicity testing on fish to the requirements for 1-10t substances that are identified as hazardous to the aquatic environment by the current set of tests in Annex VII or which have been identified by screening as potential PBTs/vPvBs (see section 2.3.2 below). Final Options for Increasing Information Requirements Annex VII+ Annex VII++ Testing in accordance with Section 9.1.3 - short-term toxicity testing on fish would be undertaken: As Annex VII+ for any substances identified with a classification as hazardous to the aquatic environment by testing in accordance with Section 9.1 of Annex VII; and for any substances where screening for P and B in PBT/vPvB identifies that criteria for both P and B (or vP and vB) are met. A1.3.2 Section 9.2 Degradation Current Requirements and Use of Information Table A1.13 provides a summary of existing requirements in Annexes VII and VIII and the intended use of the information generated in relation to degradation. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 126 Table A1.13: Section 9.2 Degradation Annex VII VIII Requirements and Adaptations to Requirements 9.2.1 Biotic 9.2.1.1. Ready biodegradability Not required for inorganic substances 9.2.2 Abiotic: 9.2.2.1. Hydrolysis as a function of pH 9.2.2.1 Not required where the substance is: Use of Information in Relation to Substances Testing at Each Level Information on this endpoint does not lead to any classification. In principle the information could be used to inform screening for P in PBT/vPvB assessment but such screening is not required for the 1-10t substances (as screening and assessment in accordance with Annex XIII only applies at present to substances performing a CSA). Information also informs PBT/vPvB screening in accordance with Annex XIII of REACH as part of CSA. readily biodegradable; or highly insoluble in water Further degradation testing to be considered if the CSA indicates the need to investigate further. The choice of the appropriate test(s) will depend on the results of the CSA Comments on the Merits of Extending Requirements for 1-10t Substances As noted in Table A1.13, information gathered in accordance with Section 9.2.1 (ready biodegradability) of Annex VII is, at present, underutilised. No classification or other trigger for action in relation to risk management results from gathering the information. As noted in Section 2.2.8 above, the option to change REACH requirements such that Annex XIII PBT/vPvB screening and assessment also applies to the 1-10t substances is an option that will be considered for both of the extended information options (Annex VII+ and VII++) for 1-10t substances. Under both of the extended options, then, the following will apply: information from the ready biodegradability test in Annex VII will be used to inform screening of P in PBT/vPvB; information on the octanol-water partitioning coefficient experimentally determined in accordance with Section 7.8 of Annex VII will be used to screen for B in PBT/vPvB; if the above screening for P and B identifies that a substance may meet the criteria for both P and B (or vP and vB), information will be gathered in relation to Section 9.1.3 of Annex VIII, short-term toxicity testing on fish (if it has not already been gathered as part of the option). This will be used to screen for T in PBT; if the above screening identifies the substance as a potential PBT or vPvB, any additional information to make an assessment will be gathered in accordance with Annex XIII of REACH. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 127 In terms of adding the abiotic test for biodegradability from Annex VIII section 9.2.2, a review of the criteria in Annex XIII suggests that this test is not required for screening and is not sufficient for assessment. As such, this test will not be included in either of the extended information options (as it appears to be surplus to requirements in relation to PBT/vPvB screening). Final Options for Increasing Information Requirements Annex VII+ information from the ready biodegradability test in Annex VII will be used to inform screening of P in PBT/vPvB; information on the octanol-water partitioning coefficient experimentally determined in accordance with Section 7.8 of Annex VII will be used to screen for B in PBT/vPvB; if the above screening for P and B identifies that a substance may meet the criteria for both P and B (or vP and vB), information will be gathered in relation to Section 9.1.3 of Annex VIII, short-term toxicity testing on fish (if it has not already been gathered as part of the option). This will be used to screen for T in PBT; if the above screening identifies the substance as a potential PBT or vPvB, any additional information to make an assessment will be gathered in accordance with Annex XIII of REACH. A1.3.3 Annex VII++ As Annex VII+ Section 9.3 Fate and behaviour in the environment Current Requirements and Use of Information Studies on fate and behaviour in the environment do not form a part of considerations in Annex VII. Table A1.14 provides a summary of existing requirements in Annex VIII and the intended use of the information generated in relation to fate and behaviour in the environment. Table A1.14: Section 9.3. Fate and behaviour in the environment Annex Requirements and Adaptations to Use of Information in Relation to Substances Requirements Testing at Each Level VIII 9.3.1. Adsorption/desorption screening Information informs consideration of 9.3.1. Not required where: environmental exposure assessment and risk characterisation as part of CSA. a low potential for adsorption is expected based on the physicochemical properties (e.g. from octanol-water partition coefficient); or the substance and its relevant degradation products decompose rapidly REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 128 Comments on the Merits of Extending Requirements for 1-10t Substances As information on fate and behaviour in the environment is present in Annex VIII only to inform environmental exposure assessment and risk characterisation as part of CSA it has little relevance in the context of the 1-10t substances. As such this endpoint will not be added to either of the extended information options. Final Options for Increasing Information Requirements Annex VII+ Maintain as at present (i.e. not required) Annex VII++ As Annex VII+ REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 129 REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 130 Annex 2 Detailed Description of the Monte Carlo Modelling A2.1 Overview An Excel® based Monte Carlo simulation model has been developed to analyse and explore the options and the baseline (current requirements). The Monte Carlo simulation approach has been applied to allow the full range and spread of costs to be examined rather than a simple average (which provides little information of use to exploring business impacts). Here, the costs of registering any given substance depend on a number of factors including (but not limited to): Whether there is already toxicological or ecotoxicological information on that substance or whether there is some or none; Whether that substance is identified by QSARs or other evidence as meeting one or more of the criteria in Annex III (or variants of in the options) and, hence, must generate the toxicological and ecotoxicological information in Annex VII (or variants of in the options); The properties of that substance. For example, whether the substance is a CMR/non-CMR, is acutely toxic, etc. (where this determines what further testing may be required under the options); The outcome of screening tests and, in particular, those for mutagenicity (where a positive result will require that further testing is undertaken); The number of companies registering that substance (which influences both the sharing of information costs in a SIEF and also the cost of administering a SIEF); Whether the registrants of that substance will all support a joint registration or whether one or more individual registrations will be submitted also; The size of the companies registering that substance (which determines the registration fees due and also allows exploration of the impacts on SMEs versus larger companies); and The volumes produced by each of the companies registering that substance (which has an influence on the impact of the costs on companies and downstream users because it provides an indication of the price increase per unit of manufacture). Clearly, different permutations of the above have different results in terms of the cost of registering different substances. In addition, the number of possible permutations is very large (a few thousand possibilities). Some permutations will result in relatively large costs of registration and some relatively low costs. The Monte Carlo simulation model explores the different permutations, calculating and recording the costs associated with each. The probability of each permutation is governed by the individual probability of each factor. In the Monte Carlo simulation these probabilities have been derived by consideration of statistical data and, where not available, assumptions. When it is run, the Monte Carlo simulation model generates a series of ‘virtual registrations’ for substances. For each ‘virtual registration’, the model generates a permutation (using the probabilities mentioned above) and calculates the resulting cost for each of the registrants under each of the options (and the baseline). The model repeats this 20,000 times (once for every 1-10t substance expected to be registered) in each case recording the identity of the substance (as a numbered code), the identity of the registrants (as a numbered code) and the cost of registration for each of those registrants. In this way the model produces nearly 88,600 rows of data, each row REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 131 giving the costs of registering a substance for an individual company under each of the options (and the baseline). These data have then been aggregated by company and also by substance. For the benefit of transparency, all of the assumptions and numbers underlying the modelling and probabilities for the Monte Carlo simulation are described in detail in the following: number and nature of substances: estimation of the number and nature of hazardous properties within the population of 1-10t substances; number of substances requiring toxicological and ecotoxicological information: estimation of the number of substances that will be identified by QSARs and other evidence as priority substances and will be required to generate toxicological and ecotoxicological information; substance costs of testing and information: estimation of the cost of generating the necessary toxicological and ecotoxicological information for substances; substance registration costs: estimation of the costs of registration including dossier preparation, sharing of information, administration costs of joint registrations, fees, etc. aggregation of costs: manufacturer/importer. calculation of overall costs by substance and by A2.2 Number and Nature of Substances A2.2.1 Total number of 1-10t substances Substances to be registered only in the 1-10t band It is estimated by ECHA that full registration for 20,000 unique phase-in substances will be submitted in the 1-10t band alone in/by the 2018 deadline. These are substances yet to be registered that will not also be registered in higher tonnage bands. In addition, 46 unique substances have already been fully registered in the 1-10t band only owing to their known C, M or R 1A/1B properties and the requirements to register these earlier (under Article 23(1)(a) of REACH). Substances also registered in higher tonnage bands Substances also registered in higher tonnage bands are less significant for the analysis as information equivalent to Annex VIII and above is already required for ALL of these substances. For these substances information leading to classifications including and going beyond those achieved under any of the information options being analysed will already be available and communicated to downstream users via Safety Data Sheets – (SDS and extended Safety Date Sheets – eSDS). As such, there is no effect or benefit from applying the options to these substances (as information in excess of that required under the options is already required and classifications communicated to downstream users and distributors). A2.2.2 Properties of the 1-10t Phase-in Substances Until (and unless) testing and other information is gathered for the 20,000 1-10t substances there will be no information that describes exactly what number of substances possess hazardous REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 132 properties and what these hazardous properties are. For this analysis, then, one must first predict what the properties of these substances are. This then provides the basis for identifying which of these substances and properties are already known (by existing test information, QSARs or other information) and the extent to which each option (and the baseline) is likely to detect further hazardous substances and properties. This is achieved in the model by dividing the 20,000 1-10t substances into those which, if subjected to toxicological and ecotoxicological testing, would be identified with properties that would meet: At least one human health and at least one environmental classification (hereafter referred to as HH and ENV); At least one human health classification but no environmental classifications (HH not ENV); At least one environmental classification but no human health classifications (ENV not HH); No human health or environmental classifications; Determining the percentage of substances fitting each of these categories has been informed by considering data from ECHA which provides an indication of the number of substances which have no hazardous properties and, for those which are likely to have hazardous properties, examining data in the classification and labelling inventory (CLI) to determine the types of hazardous properties. Here, the figures Table A2.1 provide a breakdown of substances by type (or absence) of hazardous property given by an examination of the substances on the CLI. For the 1-10t substances estimated to have one or more hazardous properties, this provides an indication of the likely split between those with properties that would meet human health, environmental or both types of classification. Table A2.1: Numbers of 1-10 t substances with different classification (based on CLI52 ) Source of Type of classification Numbers of substances with As a percentage of all information matching properties substances on CLI Data from CLI HH 98,516 (A) ENV 33,999 (B) HH and ENV 24,599 (C) 21% Total of all substances on CLI 117,945 (D) Numbers HH not ENV 73,917 (E = A minus C) 63% derived from ENV not HH 9,400 (F= B minus C) 8% the above Total with ENV or HH 107,916 (G = C plus E plus F) No ENV or HH Properties (i.e. 10,029 (D minus G) 9% those on the CLI with physical hazard classifications or no classifications at all) It should be noted that, owing to the fact that the database may contain multiple self-classifications for a number of substances, the CLI is not ideal for the purpose of predicting the likely hazardous properties of the 1-10t substances. However, the only alternative approach is to use entries for harmonised classifications on the CLI alone (to eliminate the influence of multiple classifications for the same substance). However, the list of substances for which a harmonised classification has been determined is relatively short (4,509 substances) compared with that of the full CLI (117,917) and harmonisation has been prioritised towards those substances with the most hazardous properties. 52 As of September 2014 REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 133 Thus, use of harmonised classifications alone for predicting the properties of the 1-10t substances is likely to exaggerate the number and nature of the hazardous properties. For these reasons, though still not perfect, data from the full CLI has been used for prediction of properties of the 1-10t substances53. Regarding the predicted number of 1-10t substances without any HH or ENV classification, because it is an inventory of classified substances, the CLI is only really useful for determining the distribution of substances between those with ENV versus HH versus both types of properties. ECHA have supplied the study54 with information on the percentage of REACH registrations which have any HH or ENV classification. This query suggests that 73% of these substances have one or more HH or ENV classifications. This, in turn, suggests that 27% of the 1-10t substances have no properties that would lead to classification. Combining these datasets by applying the percentages in Table A2.1 (i.e. distribution of classifications in the CLI) to the 73% of substances expected to have HH, ENV or both properties (14,600 substances in total) provides the percentages and division of the 20,000 1-10t substances in Table A2.2. Table A2.2: Predicted numbers of 1-10t substances with hazardous/non-hazardous properties Properties Percentage of substances Numbers of substances Substances with HH and ENV properties 17% 3,400 Substances with HH not ENV properties 50% 10,000 Substances with ENV not HH properties 6% 1,200 Total with ENV or HH properties 73% 14,600 No HH or ENV properties for classification 27% 5,400 Total 20,000 A2.2.3 Hazardous properties of the 1-10t substances The next step in the modelling is to statistically describe the classifications associated with the estimated 14,600 substances with properties that would meet HH or ENV classifications. Here the analysis has been restricted to those classifications that are possible according to the tests and test endpoints that are currently in Annex and also the options for extended information (Options VII+ and VII++) as set out in Table 3.1. This is because it would not be possible to draw conclusions in relation to other classifications by applying the options (and hence this information is not required for the analysis and overcomplicates matters). Table A2.3 provides the classifications, the number of substances on the CLI with those classifications, the same expressed as a percentage of all substances on the CLI with ENV or HH classifications and the implied number of 1-10t substances that have properties that would meet the 53 Note: The original analyses undertaken for the BIA were based on a 2005 ECB spreadsheet on the number of substances with certain R-phrases in the New Chemicals Database (NCD). We have attempted to cross check estimates with those from the ECB analysis of the NCD but it is not possible to extract this information from the data presented in 2005. 54 ECHA pers comm October 2014 REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 134 classifications. Note that not all of the latter will actually have a classification at this point in time and the number that are currently classified or where properties are suspected depends on the number of substances with existing test information or information from QSARs. This is the subject of the next section (Section A2.3). Table A2.3: Numbers of 1-10t substances with properties that would meet certain classifications Classification Number of As a Percentage of Implied numbers of 1substances with substances on CLI 10t Substances with classification in CLI with ENV and/or HH properties that would classification meet classification if subjected to testing Human Health Classifications Skin corrosive (1A, 1B & 1C) 9,146 8% 1,168 Skin irritation (2) 57,265 53% 7,738 Serious eye damage/irritation (1 69,636 65% 9,490 &2) Skin sensitisation (1) 11,559 11% 1,606 Acute oral toxicity (1-4 - Hazard 44,439 41% 5,986 classes H300 to H303) Single target organ toxicity repeated exposure (STOT RE 1 4,289 4% 532 and 2) Environmental Classifications Hazardous to the aquatic 44% (of substances 14,835 2,044 environment acute (1) with ENV) Totals Total with ENV (from Tables 4.1 33,999 4,600 and 4.2) Total with HH and/or ENV (from 107,916 14,600 Tables 4.1 and 4.2) In addition to the classifications in Table A2.3, CMR 1A/1B and PBT/vPvB properties are of interest for the analysis (where the latter properties are not included in the CLI). In relation to CMRs 1A/1B the analysis provided in the Final Report of Chemical Safety Assessment for 1-10t CMRs 1A/1B (RPA & CSES, 2014) estimated that there are 370 1-10t phase in substances that are (as yet unknown and unclassified) CMRs 1A/1B. In relation to PBTs, the work of Strempel et al (2012)55 and others suggests that 2% of substances would be identified as potential PBTs by screening. ECB (2002)56 suggests that around 20% of the substances identified as potential PBTs by screening would be identified as PBT substances after full PBT assessment. Based on this it can be predicted that 2% of the 14,600 1-10t substances predicted to have a HH and/or ENV classification would be identified by screening as potential PBTs, i.e. 292 substances. Of these, 20% (58) would be identified as actual PBTs by further assessment. 55 Strempel et al (2012): Screening for PBT Chemicals among the “Existing” and “New” Chemicals of the EU, Environ. Sci. Technol. 2012, 46, 5680−5687. 56 ECB (2002): Identification of Potential PBTs or vPvBs Among the IUCLID High Production Volume Chemicals (ECB 4/14/02 (PBT strategy – report). REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 135 Having predicted the numbers of substances that would have properties that would meet certain classifications across the 14,600 1-10t substances predicted to have HH and/or ENV properties, it is possible to distribute these classifications between the numbers and types of substances derived and provided in Table A2.2, namely: Substances with HH and ENV properties (3,400); Substances with HH not ENV properties (10,000); and Substances with ENV not HH properties (1,200). This provides the values in Table A2.4 describing (statistically) the number of different types of classifications for these substances. So, for example, the data in the table suggest that 10,000 1-10t substances will have HH properties that would meet one or more classifications. Of these, 872 will be skin corrosive (1A, 1B & 1C), 276 will be CMR 1A/1B, etc. Table A2.4: Hazardous Properties of 1-10t Substances Numbers Numbers with HH and with HH NOT ENV ENV All substances with any HH or ENV Skin corrosive (1A, 1B & 1C) Skin irritation (2) Serious eye damage/irritation (1 &2) Skin sensitisation (1) CMR 1A/1B (Mut 1B) Acute oral toxicity (1-4) Single target organ toxicity repeated exposure (STOT RE 1 and 2) Numbers with ENV not HH Numbers with no properties matching any HH or ENV class Total 1,200 5,400 14,600 Human Health Classifications 296 872 0 1,963 5,775 0 0 0 1,168 7,738 2,408 7,082 0 0 9,490 407 94 1,519 1,199 276 4,467 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,606 370 5,986 135 397 0 0 532 3,400 10,000 Environmental Classifications Hazardous to the aquatic environment acute (1) Would screen as PBT Actual PBT (after post screening assessment) 1,496 0 528 0 2,024 68 14 Other Properties 200 40 24 5 0 0 292 58 A2.3 Number of Substances Requiring Ecotoxicological Information A2.3.1 Toxicological and Introduction The data provided in Table A2.4 (above) describe the predicted hazardous properties of 1-10t substances. All of these substances and properties would be identified by applying all tests REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 136 (including in vivo testing for mutagenicity) to all substances. As such, these data represent the starting point for examining the extent to which the different information options are able to identify these properties (and the costs and benefits of doing so). Here, none of the options under examination involve in vivo mutagenicity testing, only options cover all of the substances and some options include additional tests. Options vary in terms of: The test endpoints included and the screening/testing strategies applied to substances required to gather toxicological and ecotoxicological information (information options VII, VII+ and VII++); and The number of substances actually required to generate toxicological and ecotoxicological information (the Annex III options). The first consideration for the Monte Carlo model is the number of substances required to generate toxicological and ecotoxicological information under the options. Under the current requirements only “priority substances between 1 and 10 tonnes” were intended to require generation of toxicological and ecotoxicological information. These substances are defined by a combination of Article 12 and Annex III and are “substances for which it is predicted (i.e. by the application of (Q)SARs or other evidence) that they are likely to meet the criteria for”: classification as C, M or R 1A/1B or PBT/vPvB; or any health or environmental hazard classes or differentiations under CLP and have a dispersive or diffuse use. The options under consideration are to: Do nothing- the baseline; Remove the diffuse/dispersive use criterion; or Remove all criteria in Annex III – i.e. require all 1-10t substances to provide toxicological and ecotoxicological information. The starting point for modelling of the baseline and certain options is the estimation of the numbers of “substances for which it is predicted (i.e. by the application of (Q)SARs or other evidence) that they are likely to meet the criteria for classification”. The model considers ‘evidence’ in the following order: Step 1: Existing test information – some substances will already have some test results on some endpoints. The model estimates this number and therein the numbers of substances likely to be identified as being likely to meet criteria for CMR 1A/1B and PBT/vPvB based on this existing information. The numbers that are not identified as such are then considered in Steps 2 and 3; Step 2: Application of Read Across (RA) - RA is a technique used to predict endpoint information for one substance by using data for the same endpoint from another substance which is considered to be similar in some way (on the basis of structural similarity and similar properties and/or activities). The model estimates the number of substances for which information from RA might be applied. It then estimates the number of substances likely to be identified as likely CMRs 1A/1B, PBTs/vPvBs or other HH or ENV classifications; and REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 137 Step 3: Application of (Quantitative) Structure Activity Relationships ((Q)SARs) - A SAR is a qualitative relationship that relates a (sub)structure to the presence or absence of a property or activity of interest. A QSAR is a mathematical model (often a statistical correlation) relating one or more quantitative parameters derived from a chemical structure to a quantitative measure of a property or activity. The model estimates the number of substances for which information may be derived from (Q)SARs and, therein, the number of substances likely to be identified as likely CMRs 1A/1B, PBTs/vPvBs or other HH or ENV classifications. The outcome of applying these steps is predictions of: The number of substances for which hazardous properties are already known from test information; The number of substances for which hazardous properties are suspected from the application of QSARs or other information (or would be if QSARs were applied); and, therefore The number of substances required to generate toxicological and ecotoxicological information under the options. These steps are described in more detail in the following subsections. A2.3.2 Step 1: Existing Testing Information For some 1-10t phase-in substances there will already be some data available on some endpoints. The model differentiates between substances with: Test information on all current Annex VII endpoints; Test information on some (simple) toxicological endpoints in Annex VII. Here the model assumes availability of information on skin/eye corrosion and irritation and acute toxicity (oral) on the basis that these are the most fundamental and relatively inexpensive tests to have performed; No test information. Concerning the numbers of substances with full test information, RPAs 2006 Revised BIA drew numbers from the 2006 ECB assumptions on the percentage of substances with a complete data set. These, in turn, were mainly drawn from the original Business Impact Assessment of the White Paper (which also drew on data from an ECB and a Danish Study). All of these studies assumed that 17% of 1-10t substances have a complete set of Annex VII data (and others have none). In the 2012 Phase 1 analysis, these figures were altered in analogy to data on actual percentages of the higher tonnage substances having data. The following was assumed: 20% of the 1 to 10 tonne substances have data on all Annex VII endpoints; 10% of the 1 to 10 tonne substances have data on some endpoints; the remainder (70%) have no data on human health and environmental endpoints. Drawing on and combining these, the Monte Carlo model assumes the values in Table A2.5 where these represent a fusion between the values applied in the above mentioned BIA (17% with full Annex VII information) and the assumptions applied in the 2012 Phase 1 study (that 70% of REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 138 substances have no information). This leads to the assumption that 13% of substances have some information. Table A2.5: Testing information already available Substances with test information on all current Annex VII endpoints Substances with test information on skin/eye corrosion and irritation and acute toxicity (oral) Substances with no test information Percentage of 110t substances 17% 13% 70% Applying these percentages to the estimates of the number of substances with different properties (HH and or ENV and none from Table A2.2) provides the breakdown of the numbers of substances with different levels of existing test information by type of hazardous property in Table A2.6. The values highlighted in red in Table A2.6 are substances for which existing test information suggests they are likely to meet the criteria for classification for one or more human health or environmental endpoints. These substances are potentially captured by the Annex III criteria on the basis of existing test information alone. The other values relate to substances for which there is, at present, no test information but for properties might be identifiable by the application of Read Across (RA) or QSARs. This is considered in the next section (Section 4.3.3). Table A2.6: Numbers of substances with different levels of information by type of hazardous property With test information With test information Without test on all Annex VII on skin and eye Information endpoints corrosion irritation and acute oral toxicity only Numbers with HH and ENV 578 442 2,380 Numbers with HH not ENV 1,700 1,300 7,000 Numbers with ENV not HH 204 156 840 Numbers with no properties 918 702 3,780 matching any HH or ENV class Total numbers of substances where existing test 2,482 1,742 0 information suggests may meet a classification for HH Substances with test information on all Annex VII Endpoints that are Prioritised as CMR 1A/1B or PBT/vPvB As noted previously, Annex III criteria prioritise CMRs 1A/1B and PBTs/vPvBs. For substances with test information on all Annex VII endpoints there will be test information from in vitro gene mutation studies (GM Bact) and also sufficient information to allow screening for PBT/vPvB. To determine the numbers likely to be identified as priority 1-10t substances based on existing test information, the model first considers substances that may be identified as CMR 1A/1B. It then considers the remaining substances and the number of these that may be identified as PBT/vPvB. Regarding CMRs 1A/1B, in vitro studies are not perfect predictors of in vivo mutagenicity and may, on the one hand, fail to identify mutagenic properties of a substance that is actually mutagenic and, REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 139 on the other, falsely predict that a substance is mutagenic when the subsequent in vivo testing triggered by such ‘false positive’ indication will identify that it is not. The extent to which in vitro tests are able to correctly identify in vivo mutagens versus in vivo non-mutagens is expressed in terms of the sensitivity and the specificity of the test where here: sensitivity expresses the extent to which a given in vitro test is able to correctly predict that a substance is mutagenic (expressed as the percentage of in vivo mutagens that would be correctly identified); and specificity expresses the extent to which a given test is able to correctly predict that a substance is not mutagenic (expressed as the percentage of in vivo non-mutagens that would be correctly identified). For those substances identified as likely to meet CMR 1A/1B from the existing test information (GM Bact), then, there will be two types: True positives - actual CMRs 1A/1B that presented (true) positive in the GM Bact test already conducted; and False postives – non-CMRs 1A/1B that presented (false) positive in the GM Bact test already conducted. The model applies a GMBact sensitivity value of 52% and a specificity value of 72%57 to the predicted numbers of actual CMRs and non-CMRs to identify the numbers of substances that would be identified as likely CMRs 1A/1B (whether true positive or false positive) and those that would not (whether false negatives or true negatives). The number of predicted CMRs is derived by consideration of the total number of substances and properties (given in Table A2.4) and the fraction of those for which full information will be available (17%). Table A2.7 summarises the data. 57 Based on 3711 chemicals including tests with Salmonella and Escherichia – see Matthews et al., 2006. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 140 Table A2.7: Substances identified as likely to meet CMR 1A/1B from Existing test information Total with No. Actual True positive False test CMRs results negative information (identified as results (not on all Annex likely CMR) identified as VII endpoints CMR) Numbers with HH and ENV 578 16 8 8 Numbers with HH not ENV 1,700 47 24 23 Numbers with ENV not HH 204 0 0 0 Numbers with no properties 918 0 0 0 matching any HH or ENV class REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 141 No. of nonCMRs False positive results (identified as likely CMR) True negative results (not identified as CMR) Total identified as likely CMRs 1A/1B 562 1,653 204 159 467 56 403 1,186 148 167 491 56 918 252 666 252 For the identification of PBTs/vPvB for the purposes of the Annex III criteria, to eliminate double counting, the model considers substances not already prioritised on the basis of their being likely to meet classifications as CMR 1A/1B (as estimated above). The Monte Carlo model applies the estimated percentage of substances likely to be identified as potential PBT/vPvB by screening (2% as described in Section A2.2.3). For substances with existing test information on all Annex VII endpoints, Table A2.8 summarises the numbers of substances prioritised as CMR, PBT/vPvB and also those substances any other HH or ENV properties (some or all of which will also be considered as priority 1-10t substances depending on the option and whether they have dispersive or diffuse uses). Table A2.8: Numbers of substances prioritised on the basis of existing test information on all Annex VII endpoints Total with Of which Total not Of which Total Total test identified as identified as No. identified as identified as information likely CMRs likely CMRs screening likely to be likely to meet on all Annex (true and positive CMR 1A/1B other HH or VII false for PBT or PBT/vPvB ENV endpoints positives) Classification Numbers with 578 167 411 8 175 403 HH and ENV Numbers with 1,700 491 1,209 24 515 1,185 HH not ENV Numbers with 204 56 148 3 59 145 ENV not HH Numbers with no properties 918 252 666 0 252 0 matching any HH or ENV class Substances with test information on some Annex VII Endpoints As noted above, for those substances with some simple toxicological information (but not all of those in Annex VII) the model assumes that data are available on skin and eye corrosion/irritation and acute oral toxicity only. These data alone are insufficient to make conclusions regarding potential CMR 1A/1B and PBT/vPvB properties and so all of these substances are assumed to be subjected to Steps 2 and 3 (RA and QSARs) in relation to identification of substances likely to these endpoints and other missing elements. A2.3.3 Steps 2 and 3: Application of Read Across (RA) and QSARs For the remaining substances (those with little or no information from testing58) information is assumed to be sought from the application of QSARs and other information such as Read Across (RA) as per Annex III. 58 The 70% with no information from testing and those of the 13% where there is some testing information but none of that information suggests a classification. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 142 Annex III, however, does not specify in detail what is required in relation to these and other tools. Elsewhere in REACH conditions on the applicability and use of (Q)SARs are rigidly defined. Here, Annexes VI to XI of REACH make reference to the use of information from (Q)SARs as an alternative to testing for specific HH and ENV endpoints for the purpose of classification and labelling and/or risk assessment. All of these references identify that “(Q)SAR models in accordance with Section 1.3 of Annex XI” are applicable. In turn, Annex XI defines the following conditions under which the use of (Q)SAR models is acceptable: “results are derived from a (Q)SAR model whose scientific validity has been established; the substance falls within the applicability domain of the (Q)SAR model; results are adequate for the purpose of classification and labelling and/or risk assessment; and adequate and reliable documentation of the applied method is provided”. There is no reference to such conditions in Annex III and, as such, the above conditions (from Annex XI 1.3) would not seem to apply. Equally, however, REACH does not specify what conditions do apply to QSARs and other evidence. Furthermore, Annex III does not specify to what lengths manufacturers and importers and others must go to attempt to make predictions based on QSARs (or other information including RA) or what happens when no predictions can be made and/or there is no other evidence available. This issue was highlighted early in the study’s timeframe and both the Commission and ECHA have agreed that the requirements of Annex III probably need to be specified in more detail to ensure that the prioritisation process achieves what is intended (to the extent possible given the technical limitations of the tools available). The Commission and ECHA agreed to provide guidance to 1 - 10 t registrants on this issue in 2015. For the purposes of this analysis (and the Monte Carlo model), based on a review of the work undertaken in 2006 by RPA for DG Enterprise59 and also in view of the current wording of Annex III, the following interpretation has been applied: 59 60 Screening Tools are used (without expert judgement): Annex III is applied based on existing data and QSAR-screening and similar ‘quick scans’ without the use of expert judgement60. There are many freely available tools that might be used for this purpose with the main tools currently available being the Analog Identification Methodology (AIM), Danish (Q)SAR database, Toxmatch, and the OECD QSAR Toolbox. Manufacturers and importers would As part of the Technical Assistance for REACH Impact Assessment Updates focussing on the then (2005) Common Position Text and also the Recommendation for the Second Reading (Sacconi, (2006 : ***II Recommendation for Second Reading, Session document of the European Parliament, Final A6-0352/2006, dated 13.10.2006). The alternative would be robust QSARs of the sort described in Annex XI 1.3. Such QSARs would be expensive to apply owing, in part, to the need for expert judgement. According to ECHA representatives (pers comm, 2014) this makes such QSARs potentially as costly or more costly to apply than undertaking the equivalent in vitro test. This would not be consistent with the objective of Article 12 and Annex III to reduce the burden on low volume substance manufacturers. However, without expert judgement there is significant risk that the screening will not return reliable results. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 143 obtain one or more such tools and apply them in-house or commission a QSAR consultancy to obtain results from similar/the same QSAR tools; A positive decision rule applies: to be identified as a priority 1-10t substance, there must be positive evidence of hazardous properties; and Absence of evidence equates to absence of effects: By extension of the above, the absence of evidence is taken as absence of effects61. This includes cases/substances where there is no existing test information and no prediction by QSARs (or other approaches) can be made (for example, because a substance is out of the ‘domain’ of a QSAR model). The latter substances would not be 1-10t priority substances (and no new toxicological or ecotoxicological information would be generated under REACH). Step 2: Application of Read Across (RA) RA is a technique used to predict endpoint information for one substance by using data from the same endpoint from another substance which is considered to be similar in some way (on the basis of structural similarity and similar properties and/or activities). RA may be qualitative or quantitative. In qualitative read-across, the presence (or absence) of a property/activity for the target substance is inferred from the presence (or absence) of the same property/activity for one or more source substances. Qualitative read-across gives a ‘yes/no’ answer. Quantitative read-across is used to obtain a quantitative value for an endpoint, such as a dose-response relationship. RA is based on (and dependent upon) the identification of similar substances and it can be performed to determine whether the target substance belongs to an existing category (chemical category) or to identify a similar substance to the target substance (analogue search). Reviewing available information, the 2012 Phase 1 study on 1-10t substances made tentative conclusions on the ability of RA to provide information on a range of test endpoints. This review suggested that RA might be applied to around 11% of substances. Accordingly, the Monte Carlo model assumes that similar substances from which RA can be performed will be identifiable for 11% of the 1-10t substances. In other words, RA can be successfully applied (and likely properties and HH and ENV classifications can be predicted) for 11% of substances which currently have little or no information. The resulting numbers of substances and hazardous properties identified are summarised in Table A2.9. In the table, the number of substances identified with ‘other HH or ENV classifications’ are derived by deducting the numbers of likely CMRs and PBTs/vPvBs identified. However, because the values calculated are statistical, substances identified as potentially CMR 1A/1B and identified as potentially PBT/vPvB may be: 61 The absence of evidence of effects is not generally otherwise accepted as evidence of absence of effects. See for example Danish experience on regulatory use of QSARs https://echa.europa.eu/documents/10162/13639/qsarws_wedebye_tule_en.pdf REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 144 a. the same substances - in which case the number of substances identified would be equal to the maximum number identified across the two endpoints. For example, if 10 CMRs and 4 PBTs/vPvBs are predicted by RA then this would equate to 10 substances in total for prioritisation; or b. the substances may all be different - in which case the number of substances identified would be equal to the total of the numbers identified across the two endpoints. So, 10 CMRs and 4 PBTs/vPvBs predicted by RA would equate to 14 substances in total for prioritisation; or c. most likely, some are the same and some are different - in which case the number for prioritisation lies between the two cases above. A best estimate is that the number prioritised is equal to an average of the maximum value across the endpoints and the total across all endpoints. So, 10 CMRs and 4 PBTs/vPvBs predicted by RA would equate to 12 substances in total for prioritisation. The latter approach has been applied in the model to eliminate double counting to the extent possible. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 145 Table A2.9: Priority 1-10t substances identified through Read Across (RA) Type of substance Numbers of substances for which CMRs identified for RA can be successfully applied prioritisation (11%) Substances with test information on some Annex VII Endpoints Numbers with HH and ENV 49 1 Numbers with HH not ENV 143 4 Numbers with ENV not HH 17 0 Numbers with no properties 77 0 matching any HH or ENV class Substances with no information Numbers with HH and ENV 262 7 Numbers with HH not ENV 770 21 Numbers with ENV not HH 92 0 Numbers with no properties 416 0 matching any HH or ENV class REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 146 Potential PBTs/vPvBs identified for prioritisation Total identified as likely to meet other HH or ENV Classification 1 3 0 48 138 17 0 0 5 15 2 253 742 90 0 0 Step 3: Application of QSARs QSARs are assumed to be applied to all substances with little or no information and for which RA cannot be successfully applied according to the rules and interpretations of Annex III set out at the beginning of this sub-section. A detailed review of QSARs and their applicability to (and adequacy for) various information requirements under REACH was undertaken as part of the Phase 1 study. This concluded that QSARs for the following endpoints could be applied in relation to Annex III (and others were not applicable or were not oriented towards the specific classification-based approach that Annex II takes): Acute toxicity Skin irritation/corrosion Eye irritation Skin sensitisation Mutagenicity/ carcinogenicity Aquatic toxicity – short term PBT & vPvB In the 2006 study for DG Enterprise and also in the Phase 1 study, two key factors were considered in relation to the applicability and accuracy of QSAR predictions. These were: QSAR domain: The domain of applicability specifies a group of molecular structures for which the model is applicable. For molecule structures outside of this domain the model is not applicable; and QSAR Performance: the extent to which the QSAR for a given endpoint is able to correctly predict outcomes. In both the 2006 and 2012 studies, the focus of the latter factor (performance) was on the correct identification/detection of substances with hazardous properties (true positives) as opposed to the incorrect attribution of hazardous properties to a substance not possessing these properties (false positives). This is because the emphasis of these studies was on the use of QSARs as an alternative to in vitro and/or in vivo testing rather than screening. For this, Phase 2 study, the emphasis of is on the use of QSARs for screening of substances and the determination of whether they are ‘priority 1-10t substances’. This means that there is a need to better consider the number of false positives (and false negatives) as well as the true positives (and true negatives) by breaking ‘performance’ down into its composite factors of sensitivity and specificity where: sensitivity expresses the extent to which a given QSAR for an endpoint is able to correctly identify substances with hazardous properties (for that endpoint) - this is expressed as a percentage substances correctly identified; and specificity expresses the extent to which a given QSAR for an endpoint is able to correctly identify substances without hazardous properties (for that endpoint) - this is expressed as a percentage substances correctly identified as non-hazardous for that endpoint; and Where possible, estimates for these percentages are based on consideration of actual data on typical QSAR performance for different endpoints. Here there are a few studies that compare the REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 147 results from QSARs applied to substances for which test data are available (i.e. properties are known). Where data for an endpoint are not available from such studies, assumed values have been used based on the ‘poor, fair, good’ performance indications that were the outcome of the aforementioned review undertaken for the Phase 1 study. In terms of QSAR domain, the previous studies also derived ‘poor, fair, good’ descriptions. The Phase 1 study also considered how this may change over time for different endpoints, summarising the values used in 2006, the status in 2012 and ‘best hope’ projections for what QSAR domains may look like in 2018 (the next registration deadline). The 2018 projections, however, were based on the use of QSARs as an alternative to testing. Application of QSARs to provide screening for Annex III will take place well before 2018. As such, the Monte Carlo model draws on the domain descriptors for 2012 as these are unlikely to have changed significantly. As with the previous studies, percentages are attributed to the different descriptors as follows: ‘poor’ domain - 10% of substances are within the domain of the QSAR. The QSAR is not applicable to the others; ‘fair’ domain - 40%; and ‘good’ domain - 70%. The values applied in the model as defaults are summarised in Table A2.10 (there is the option to use alternative entered values in the model). REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 148 Table A2.10: Values for QSAR Domain, Sensitivity and Specificity Applied in the Monte Carlo model QSAR Domain Assumed in Estimated Predicted Assumed Domain as a the 2006 Situation in situation in situation at percentage of Study23 2012 2018 (Phase 1 the time substances (Phase 1 Study) when for which the Study) screening for QSAR can be Annex III will applied be undertaken (as 2012) Acute toxicity FAIR FAIR GOOD FAIR 40% Skin irritation/corrosion Eye irritation Skin sensitisation Mutagenicity/ carcinogenicity Aquatic toxicity – short term PBT and vPvB QSAR Sensitivity QSAR Specificity 80% 45% GOOD GOOD GOOD GOOD 70% 45% 84% FAIR GOOD FAIR FAIR GOOD GOOD FAIR FAIR 40% 40% 45% 50% 84% 50% GOOD GOOD GOOD GOOD 70% 70% 75% GOOD FAIR GOOD FAIR 40% 70% 70% Not considered FAIR FAIR FAIR 40% 70% 60% Source for Sensitivity and specificity values Assumed based on 2012 review From Liew, C. Y. and Yap, C. W. (2013) 62 From UK COM63 Assumed based on 2012 review Assumed based on 2012 review 62 Liew, C. Y. and Yap, C. W. (2013), QSAR and Predictors of Eye and Skin Effects . Mol. Inf., 32: 281–290. doi: 10.1002/minf.201200119 63 UK Committee on Mutagenicity of Chemicals in Food, Consumer Products and the Environment (COM) (2011) Guidance on a Strategy for Genotoxicity Testing of Chemical Substances. http://www.iacom.org.uk/guidstate/documents/COMGuidanceFINAL.pdf REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 149 Regarding the application of these figures to data on substances and properties, the following approach is used in the model: QSARs are applied to the number of substances with HH and/or ENV or no hazardous properties for which no or only partial test information is available and for which RA does not apply; for each QSAR endpoint, the relevant domain percentage is applied to the above numbers to give the number of substances to which the QSAR is applicable; for these substances the number exhibiting the different hazardous properties for each endpoint is ‘known’ statistically (as per Table A2.4). This provides the numbers to which the sensitivity values are applied which, in turn, provides estimates of the True Positives (TPs) detected and the False Negatives (FNs) not detected by the application of QSARs; the same numbers exhibiting the different hazardous properties, when subtracted from the numbers to which the QSAR is applicable, provides the numbers of substances to which the QSAR is applicable but there are no hazardous properties. This provides the numbers to which the specificity values are applied to derive estimates of the True Negatives (TNs) and False Positives (FPs) for each QSAR; the TPs and FPs are the substances for which it is predicted by QSARs that substances are likely to meet the appropriate classification; The TPs and FPs for mutagenicity and PBT/vPvB are prioritised in the model using the same approach as that described for RA to aggregate (i.e. the number of substances prioritised is equal to the average of the total plus the maximum across both endpoints; and The model employs the same approach when aggregating to the numbers prioritised across a series of QSAR endpoints. In this way the Monte Carlo model provides estimates of the numbers of substances for which QSARs predict that classification may be met where these are divided into those that are predicted as likely to be: CMR 1A/1B and/or PBT/vPvB; and any other HH or ENV classification. These estimates, when combined with numbers predicted from existing test information and application of RA, provide the numbers of ‘priority 1-10t substances’ identified according to all Annex III criteria other than the dispersive/diffuse use criterion which applies to any HH or ENV classification in the case of the baseline (current) situation. Previous studies have estimated that between 20% and 40% of substances are used in wide dispersive uses (20% based on the Danish and Nordic Product Registers and 40% based on the Commission’s previous estimates). As such, the overall assumption that around 40% of substances have one or more dispersive/diffuse uses is applied as a default in the Monte Carlo model to derive the numbers of substances considered as ‘priority 1-10t substances’ under the baseline situation. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 150 A2.3.4 Predicted Numbers of Substances Requiring Toxicological and Ecotoxicological Information Applying all of the modelling steps set out above provides information on the number of substances likely to be required to generate toxicological and ecotoxicological information under each of the options and the baseline. Here, options vary between one another and the baseline depending on the extent to which substances satisfy the criteria in Annex III and, in particular, whether the QSARs or other information indicates that one or more of the criteria are satisfied. For options involving the removal of Annex III and it’s criteria, all substances are required to generate toxicological and ecotoxicological information. The numbers of substances requiring toxicological and ecotoxicological information under each option and the baseline are provided in Table A2.11. The substances identified are those that meet the following criteria in each case: baseline – substances identified by the application of QSARs or other evidence as likely to meet classification as CMR1A/1B or PBT/vPvB and substances with diffuse/dispersive uses likely to meet any other human health or environmental classification; Annex III no diffuse/dispersive option - substances identified by the application of QSARs or other evidence as likely to meet classification as CMR1A/1B or PBT/vPvB and all other substances likely to meet any other human health or environmental classification; and no Annex III option – all substances required to gather information. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 151 Table A2.11: Numbers of substances requiring toxicological and ecotoxicological information by application of the Annex III options No Annex III No diffuse/dispersive use criterion in Annex III Availability Type of hazardous properties Number of CMRs Potential Number of CMRs Potential Number of of existing (HH – Human Health Substances PBTs/ Substances PBTs/ Substances test ENV – Environmental) to Annex vPvBs to Annex vPvBs to Annex information VII VII VII Test With HH and ENV properties 578 16 12 578 16 12 336 information With HH (not ENV) properties 1,700 47 34 1,700 47 34 989 available on With ENV (not HH) properties 204 0 4 204 0 4 117 all endpoints Substances with no properties 918 0 0 252 0 0 252 matching any HH or ENV class Test With HH and ENV properties 442 12 9 412 12 9 213 information With HH (not ENV) properties 1,300 36 26 1,212 36 26 625 available on With ENV (not HH) properties 156 0 3 67 0 3 47 some Substances with no properties 702 0 0 163 0 0 128 endpoints matching any HH or ENV class No With HH and ENV properties 2,380 66 47 1,536 42 21 958 information With HH (not ENV) properties 7,000 193 140 4,300 121 61 2,727 available With ENV (not HH) properties 840 0 17 507 0 8 322 Substances with no properties 3,780 0 0 1,632 0 0 1,231 matching any HH or ENV class Total With HH and ENV properties 3,400 94 68 2,526 70 42 1,507 With HH (not ENV) properties 10,000 276 200 7,212 204 121 4,341 With ENV (not HH) properties 1,200 0 24 778 0 15 486 Substances with no properties 5,400 0 0 2,047 0 0 1,611 matching any HH or ENV class REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 152 Baseline CMRs Potential PBTs/ vPvBs 11 33 0 10 28 3 0 0 9 26 0 9 26 3 0 0 38 111 0 19 57 7 0 0 58 170 0 38 111 13 0 0 A2.4 Toxicological and Ecotoxicological Information Gathering A2.4.1 Standard Information Required under the Options All substances identified by the model as requiring toxicological and ecotoxicological information under the relevant Annex III scenario (described above) must gather the information appropriate to the Information Option (current Annex VII, Annex VII+ or Annex VII++). Standard information required in Annex VII The starting point for modelling testing and information costs is the standard information required in the current Annex VII. This is because this information (and the rules applied to gathering it) is common to all three of the Information Options. The current Annex VII information requirements have been summarised in Table 2.3. These provide standard information that is required to be generated and, in the right hand columns, refinements and adaptations that apply including the need for further studies in the event of a positive result. In relation to the latter, only a positive result for Section 8.4 - Mutagenicity triggers further studies. Further studies under the options are considered in Section 4.4.2. Whilst information must be provided for all substances, the adaptations and refinements identify that certain tests are not required in the following cases: For substances that are strong acids/bases - no test required on 8.1 Skin irritation/skin corrosion, 8.2 Eye irritation or 8.3 Skin sensitisation; For substances that are corrosive to skin - no test required on 8.2 Eye irritation or 8.3 Skin sensitisation; and For substances that are flammable at room temperature - no test required on 8.1 Skin irritation/skin corrosion, 8.2 Eye irritation, or 8.3 Skin sensitisation. In the Monte Carlo model, estimates of the percentage of substances likely to have such properties are applied to determine which substances do not require test information for the relevant endpoints. For substances with ENV only or no predicted HH or ENV properties the above exemptions don’t apply as any of the above exceptions would imply some a property that would result in a HH classification. For those substances with HH properties, analysis of CLI suggests that around 20% of substances that are skin corrosive are strong acids/bases. Expressed as a percentage of substances with any HH classification this suggests 2.5% of substances with HH properties would satisfy this criteria and no test would be required. As regards skin corrosivity, the predicted classifications of substances (summarised in Table A2.4) suggest that 8.7% of substances with HH properties will be identified as corrosive to skin as so will not require information on this endpoint. Analysis of CLI suggests that only around 0.2% of substances would meet the flammability criteria. Information on all endpoints is assumed to be required for all substances barring the exemptions identified above. It is assumed that this information is generated by carrying out the relevant in vitro tests (with the exception of strong acids/bases from which information on corrosivity etc. can REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 153 be easily predicted). With the exception of the mutagenicity screening test (GM Bact – discussed in Section 4.4.2), it is assumed that each test undertaken positively identifies the corresponding properties and classification. Additional standard information required under both Annex VII+ and VII++ Options The additional information and requirements common to both Annex VII+ and VII++ options comprise: Screening and assessment for PBT/vPvB properties; and Section 9.1 Aquatic Toxicity – a third test is required (on fish). The additional requirements and the variables applied in Monte Carlo modelling are summarised in Table A2.12. Table A2.12: Additional requirements common to the Annex VII+ and VII++ Information Options Additional Description Modelling Requirement Screening and Screening for PBT/vPvB properties in Screening is carried out for all substances requiring assessment for accordance with the criteria in toxicological and ecotoxicological information. PBT/vPvB Annex XIII is carried out for all Note that where existing test information is properties substances. already available for substances, the screening is carried out as part of the assessment of whether If the screening indicates that a the substance is likely to be a PBT/vPvB for the substance may meet PBT/vPvB purposes of Annex III (where it applies under the criteria, PBT/vPvB assessment is option combination). required. This requires the collection of additional information on the As noted in Section 4.2.4, around 2% of substances substance, its properties, fate and subjected to screening are expected to be behaviour in accordance with Annex identified as potential PBT/vPvBs. These XIII. substances are assumed to gather the additional information for assessment. Section 9.1 Aquatic Toxicity Testing in accordance with Section 9.1.3 - short-term toxicity testing on fish would be undertaken: for any substances identified with a classification as hazardous to the aquatic environment by testing in accordance with Section 9.1 of Annex VII; and for any substances where The assessment based on the additional information will identify those that are actual PBTs/vPvBs. As noted in Section 4.2.4, around 20% of substances identified by screening as potential PBT/vPvB are actual PBT/vPvB. This percentage is applied in the Monte Carlo model to provide the number of PBT/vPvBs identified under each option. Based on predicted properties of substances in Table A2.4, 44% of substances with ENV properties (that undergo testing) will be identified as hazardous to the aquatic environment (acute) by testing in accordance with Section 9.1 of Annex VII. Under the Annex VII+ and VII++ options, these substances undertake a further aquatic toxicity study in fish. The Monte Carlo model assumes that 5% of substances would be identified as meeting the REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 154 Table A2.12: Additional requirements common to the Annex VII+ and VII++ Information Options Additional Description Modelling Requirement screening for P and B in criteria for both P and B (or vP and vB). PBT/vPvB identifies that criteria for both P and B (or vP and vB) Under the Annex VII+ and VII++ options, these are met. substances undertake a further aquatic toxicity study in fish (if one is not already required in the light of the results of aquatic toxicity testing in accordance with Section 9.1 of Annex VII). Additional standard information required under the Annex VII++ Option Alone The additional information and requirements unique to the Annex VII++ option comprises: Section 8.4 Mutagenicity – additional screening test for cytogenicity; Section 8.5 Acute Toxicity – dermal or inhalation toxicity studies; Section 8.6 Repeated Dose Toxicity – for lower toxicity substances The additional requirements and the variables applied in Monte Carlo modelling are summarised in Table A2.13. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 155 Table A2.13: Additional requirements common to the Annex VII+ and VII++ Information Options Additional Description Monte Carlo modelling Requirement Section 8.4 In addition to the standard testing in All substances undergo the additional test. It is assumed that 80% undertake the MNTvitro and Mutagenicity Annex VII (GM Bact) a further 20% the CABvitro. screening test is required in the form of the current Annex VIII A positive result in any of the two tests triggers further studies on mutagenicity (see Section Section 8.4.2 in vitro cytogenicity 4.4.2) study in mammalian cells (CAbvitro) or in vitro micronucleus study (MNTvitro) Section 8.5 Classification for acute oral toxicity The data in Table A2.3 suggests that around 41% of substances with HH and/or ENV properties Acute Toxicity in accordance with Section 8.5.1 of will be identified for classification as acute toxic (oral). Once classifications have been divided in Annex VII triggers consideration of the model into substances with HH versus no HH properties this is equivalent to 45% of dermal or inhalation toxicity in substances with HH properties being classified for acute oral toxicity. accordance with Sections 8.5.2 and 8.5.3 of Annex VIII. Under the Annex VII++ option, these substances are required to undertake either a dermal or an inhalation study depending on the most likely route of exposure. The Monte Carlo model assumes that 80% of the required testing is on dermal toxicity and 20% on inhalation. Section 8.6 Repeated Dose Toxicity Short term repeated dose toxicity in accordance with Section 8.6.1 of Annex VIII for substances identified by testing under 8.5.1 as Acute Tox 4. Analysis of toxicity classifications on CLI (see Table A1.8) suggests that 91-96% of substances that are classified as acute toxic oral also have a classification for toxicity by inhalation or dermal routes. As such, the model assumes that 93.5% of the substances subjected to dermal/inhalation tests (i.e. those identified with a classification for oral toxicity in accordance with Section 8.5.1 of Annex VII) will be classified accordingly. 27% of substances with harmonised classifications on the CLI are Acute Tox 4. The Monte Carlo model applies this percentage to the substances for which a classification for oral toxicity has been identified to provide the numbers undertaking repeated dose toxicity studies. For all of these substances, improved toxicological information will be available for management of risks. The Monte Carlo model also assumes that the information will lead to classification as STOT RE 1 or 2 for 17% of the substances tested. This on the basis of the implied number of harmonised substances with classification as Acute tox 4 and STOT RE 1 and 2. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 156 Costs applied to the Standard Information Requirements under the Options The costs applied to the standard information requirements (and further information as required) under all of the options (including the baseline) are provided in Table A2.14. With the exception of the following, all costs have been drawn from the 2012 CEFIC testing catalogue which lists the average cost of testing for each endpoint: Cost of QSARs for Annex III – the Phase 1 study estimated the costs at around €1,500 per substance for the QSAR models without expert interpretation. This was based on discussions with laboratories providing QSAR information but equally could apply to inhouse assessments using QSAR software which might be expected to take around 1.5 days. The cost is applied in the Monte Carlo model on a per substance basis and applies initially to all substances for which there is not existing test information on all Annex VII endpoints. However, it has been tentatively assumed that QSAR/RA has already been applied to 40% of these substances. As such, no QSAR costs are applied to these substances and any selfclassification possible from QSARs and RA already applied represents existing information that can only be confirmed by testing. When undertaking new QSAR/RA work for the purpose of assessing the substance against the criteria in Annex III it is assumed that there is no duplication of effort between registrants and that a lead registrant takes on the task (but the cost is shared between the registrants as per the testing costs); Cost of Screening for PBT/vPvB Properties – PBT/vPvB screening requires cross checking the results of tests with the screening criteria in Annex XIII. The Monte Carlo model assumes this would cost around €500 (i.e. a half person day). This applies to Options VII+ and VII++ (because there is no requirement to screen in Annex VII) and also for all substances which already have information and this information is used as part of the identification of likely PBT/vPvB properties for the purpose of prioritisation and Annex III (which applies to Annex VV as well as the higher information options); Further testing for PBT/vPvB Assessment – further testing and assessment applies to those substances identified as potential PBT/vPvB by screening. For such substances additional information comprising simulation testing on degradation in surface water/soil/sediment, assessment of the toxicokinetic behaviour of the substance or results from a bioconcentration or bioaccumulation study in aquatic species. The costs of testing and information may vary considerably. The Monte Carlo model assumes that the cost of further information is €20,000. In the Monte Carlo model, the relevant costs have been applied to all substances requiring information whether or not that information is already available. In the case of substances where information on some or all endpoints in Annex VII is available, other registrants of the substance will have to buy access to that information from the owner of that information. The Monte Carlo model assumes that the owner of that information is one of the registrants and that the current value of that information is equivalent to the sum of the costs of the relevant tests in the testing catalogue. In previous studies such costs were not considered as they represent a transfer payment between companies that make up ‘industry’; thus the net cost of the information is zero viewed across ‘industry’ as a whole. This (new) Monte Carlo model, however, seeks also to examine the impact of costs on companies. The need to make such transfer payments may be important to those having to make them (particularly SMEs) and so it is important to reflect them. Costs of existing test information are still a net zero at an ‘industry’ level because the payment made is credited to another company. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 157 Table A2.14: Costs of Testing and Information Cost component Cost of QSARs for Annex III Annex VII 8.1. Skin irritation/ corrosion - In vitro skin corrosion/irritation Annex VII 8.2. Eye irritation - In vitro eye irritation Annex VII 8.3. Skin sensitisation - In vivo LLNA Annex VII 8.4.1 GMbact: gene mutation test in bacteria (Ames test) Annex VIII 8.4.2 CAbvitro, in vitro chromosome aberration test Annex VIII 8.4.2 MNTvitro, in vitro micronucleus test Annex VIII 8.4.2 MNTvitro/CAbvitro (weighted average based on % conducting MNTvitro) Annex VIII 8.4.3 GMvitro:gene mutation assay in mammalian cells Annex IX 8.4.4 Cytvivo:cytogenetic assay in experimental animals Annex VIII 8.4.3 GMvivo:gene mutation assay in experimental animals - Mouse micronucleus assay Annex VII 8.5. Acute toxicity - Oral toxicity Annex VIII 8.5.2. Acute toxicity - Toxicity via Inhalation Annex VIII 8.5.3. Acute toxicity - Toxicity via Dermal routes Annex VIII 8.6.1. Repeat dose toxicity - Short term (Oral) Annex VII 9.1.1. Aquatic Toxicity - Invertebrate - short-term Annex VII 9.1.2. Aquatic Toxicity - Algal - short-term Annex VIII 9.1.3. Aquatic Toxicity - Fish – short-term Annex VII 9.2.1.1. Degradation - Biotic - Ready biodeg Cost of Screening for PBT/vPvB Properties Further testing for PBT/vPvB Assessment (once identified by screening) A2.4.2 Cost (€) € 1,500 € 2,580 € 1,552 € 7,117 € 3,465 € 20,080 € 16,518 € 17,231 € 17,615 € 27,730 € 12,620 € 1,486 € 12,267 € 2,486 € 52,925 € 5,232 € 5,806 € 4,845 € 3,705 € 500 € 20,000 Information Requirements for Mutagenicity under the Options Mutagenicity Testing for Annex VII and VII+ Information Options As noted in Section 4.4.1, all substances completing the full Annex VII requirements are required to gather data in relation to the Annex VII gene mutation test (GMBact). In the event of a negative result, it is concluded that the substance is non-genotoxic and no further testing is required. In the event of a positive result, substances are required to gather additional data from Annex VIII and above. The ECHA “Guidance on Information Requirements and Chemical Safety Assessment - Chapter R.7a: Endpoint Specific Guidance” sets out specific guidance on meeting the information requirements set out in Annexes VI to XI to the REACH Regulation. The guidance includes, for each endpoint, an Integrated Testing Strategy (ITS) “providing guidance on how to define and generate relevant information on substances in order to meet the requirements of REACH64”. In relation to further studies on mutagenicity, the general route followed by ECHA guidance is one of undertaking relevant mutagenicity testing progressing up through Annex VIII and above to establish genotoxicity. The following are required in the event of a positive result for GMBact: 64 Structure of Chapter R.7a – page 15 REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 158 either or both of CAbvitro/MNT Vitro or GMvitro tests in Annex VIII as appropriate to the ITS; Cytvivo or GMvivo65 in vivo tests in Annex IX as appropriate to the ITS. For a substance presenting negative in the in vivo tests it would be concluded that the substance is not genotoxic and no further testing is required. For a substance presenting positive in either of the in vivo tests it would be concluded that the substance was genotoxic. The Monte Carlo model considers substances predicted in the model to have CMR 1A/1B properties and those that are not (non-CMRs). Sensitivity data for the different tests are applied to the numbers of CMRs to identify the outcome of each test in terms of the number of true positives (TPs) and false negatives (FNs) identified. Specificity data are applied to the numbers of non-CMRs to identify the number of false positives (FPs) and true negatives (TNs). The sensitivity and specificity data used in the Monte Carlo model are drawn from the UK Committee on Mutagenicity of Chemicals in Food, Consumer Products and the Environment (COM) Guidance on a Strategy for Genotoxicity Testing of Chemical Substances66. This guidance reviewed the effectiveness of testing strategies using adjusted data based on the Kirkland et al (2005)67 study. The values applied in the Monte Carlo model are provided in Table A2.15. Table A2.15: Sensitivity and specificity of different in vitro mutagenicity tests Sensitivity GMBact 52% GMvitro 71% MNTvitro 88% Cabvitro 55% MNTvitro/CAbvitro (weighted average based on 80% 81% conducting MNTvitro) Specificity 72% 44% 23% 63% 31% 65 GMbact: gene mutation test in bacteria (Ames test); CAbvitro, in vitro chromosome aberration test; MNTvitro, in vitro micronucleus test; GMvitro:gene mutation assay in mammalian cells; Cytvivo:cytogenetic assay in experimental animals; GMvivo:gene mutation assay in experimental animals 66 the UK Committee on Mutagenicity of Chemicals in Food, Consumer Products and the Environment (COM) (2011) Guidance on a Strategy for Genotoxicity Testing Of Chemical Substances. http://www.iacom.org.uk/guidstate/documents/COMGuidanceFINAL.pdf 67 Kirkland, D., Aardema, M., Henderson, L., Müller, L. (2005): Evaluation of the ability of a battery of three in vitro genotoxicity tests to discriminate rodent carcinogens and non-carcinogens: I. Sensitivity, specificity and relative predictivity, Mutation Research - Genetic Toxicology and Environmental Mutagenesis, 584 (12), pp. 1-256. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 159 Considering the standard GMBact test in Annex VII (and VII+), the data suggest that: 52% of CMRs for which toxicological and ecotoxicological information is required will show a true positive result (TP) triggering the requirement to undertake further studies; and 28% of non-CMRs for which toxicological and ecotoxicological information is required will show a false positive result (FP) triggering the requirement to undertake further studies. In terms of the further studies that are required for substances, there are a number of combinations depending on the results obtained from each successive test suggested by the ITS. The results can be predicted statistically by applying the relevant sensitivity/specificity value to the outcome of the previous test. In this way the Monte Carlo model uses a cascade approach to predict how many substances are likely to carry out which combination of tests (and at what cost). The approach is illustrated in Figure A2.1 which shows the outcome of applying the ITS to the 52% of mutagens and 28% of non-mutagens that would be identified as requiring further studies (because they show a positive result in GMBact). In the figure, the numbers in brackets are the relevant sensitivity and specificity values assumed for the associated tests (as given in Table A2.14). REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 160 Figure A2.1: Illustration of cascade modelling of the outcome of further mutagenicity following a positive result for GM Bact in Option VII and VII++ GM bact (Annex VII) Substances with positive result in GM Bact - Further Testing Required Mutagens Non-Mut. 52 28 Negative MNT/Cabvitro (Annex VIII) Positive Negative Mutagens Non-Mut. 10 9 ( 19% ) ( 31% ) GM Vivo (Annex IX/X) Positive Mutagens Non-Mut. Mutagens Non-Mut. 42 19 10 0 ( 81% ) ( 69% ) ( 100% ) ( 0% ) Mutagens Non-Mut. 0 9 ( 0% ) ( 100% ) Negative Negative Cytvivo (Annex IX/X) Positive Mutagens Non-Mut. 0 19 ( 0% ) ( 100% ) GMVivo (Annex IX/X) Positive Mutagens Non-Mut. Mutagens Non-Mut. 42 0 0 0 ( 100% ) ( 0% ) ( 100% ) ( 0% ) Mutagens Non-Mut. 0 19 ( 0% ) ( 100% ) Mutagenicity Testing for Annex VII+ Information Options As noted in Section 4.4.1, for the Annex VII++ Information Option all substances completing the full Annex VII requirements are required to gather data in relation to both the Annex VII gene mutation test (GMBact) and the Annex VIII CAbvitro/MNTvitro studies. Considering these standard tests application of the sensitivity/specificity data suggest that: For CMRs - 52% of CMRs for which toxicological and ecotoxicological information is required will show a true positive result (TP) to the GM Bact and 48% a false negative (FN) result. Of the 48% showing a false negative, 81% will show a true positive (TP) result in the CAbvitro/MNTvitro – i.e. 39% overall (81% times 48%). Overall, then, 91% (52% plus 39%) of CMRs will be identified as requiring further studies by the combination of the two tests; REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 161 For non-CMRs -28% of non-CMRs for which toxicological and ecotoxicological information is required will show a false positive result (FP) and 72% a true negative (TN) result. Of the 72% showing a true negative result, 69% will show a false positive (FP) result in the CAbvitro/MNTvitro – i.e. 49% overall (69% times 78%). As such, 77% of non-CMRs will be identified as requiring further studies by the combination of the two tests. As with the further studies required under Annex VII and VII+ options, the Monte Carlo model uses a cascade approach to predict the test combination that will apply for further studies and the associated costs. Substances requiring further mutagenicity studies and associated costs The outcome of applying the cascade approach to both options is summarised in Table A2.16. This provides information on all of the possible combinations of standard and further testing under the Annex VII and VII+ options and also the Annex VII++ option, the percentage of substances undertaking which combination (divided into those that are CMRs versus those that are not) and the costs of in vitro and in vivo testing that are applied in the model. Not all combinations are applicable across all of the options. Here, as described above, Option VII++ requires a second mutagenicity screening test in the event of a negative result for GMBact where, for Options VII and VII+ a negative result in GMBact results in a non-genotoxic conclusion (and no further testing is required). The cost of submitting proposals for in vivo animal tests are considered under substance registration costs (Section 4.5). REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 162 Table A2.16: Percentage of CMR and non-CMR substances undertaking different combinations of mutagenicity tests and associated costs All options In vitro tests In vivo tests Information Options VII and VII+ Information Option VII++ Test costs applied GM Bact- positive GM Bact- positive CAb/MNTvitro – positive Cytvivo – negative GMvivo - either CAb MNTvitro – positive Cytvivo - positive Test and result combination Options VII and VII+ only GM BactGM Bact- positive negative CAb/ MNTvitro – negative Conclusion: Non-genotoxic GMvivo - either CMRs through each testing route (%) Non-CMRs through each testing route (%) CMRs through each testing route (%) 0.0% 42.3% 9.7% 48.0% 19.3% 0.0% 8.7% 72.0% 0.0% 42.3% 9.7% Non-CMRs through each testing route (%) 19.3% 0.0% 8.7% € 20,695 € 40,350 € 61,045 € 20,695 € 27,730 € 48,425 € 20,695 € 12,620 € 33,315 Cost of In vitro tests Cost of in vivo tests Total cost of testing REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 163 Does not apply to Option VII++ (second screening test required) € 3,465 None € 3,465 Option VII++ only GM Bact- negative GM Bact- negative CAb/ MNTvitro – positive CAb/MNTvitro – negative Conclusion: Nongenotoxic Cytvivo - either Does not apply to Options VII and VII+ (no second screening test) 39.1% 8.9% 49.7% 22.3% € 20,695 € 27,730 € 48,425 € 20,695 None € 20,695 A2.5 Substance Registration Costs A2.5.1 Overview The cost of generating toxicological and ecotoxicological information (described in Section 4.4) represent only one element of the costs of registration. To these must be added: Registration Dossier costs - the costs of drafting and finalising a registration dossier for submission; Cost of producing study summaries – which varies from information option to information option (because of differences in the information generated by different options) and outcome in terms of any further mutagenicity testing and/or PBT/vPvB assessment; Joint registration and SIEF administrative costs - where there is more than one registrant of the substance, the costs of liaising with the other registrants as part of sharing information on the substance (Substance Information Exchange Fora – SIEFs), sharing the costs of that information, preparing the registration dossier and other technical and administrative liaison costs; Costs of revising Substance Safety Data Sheets (SDSs) – where there is a change in classification for a substance in the light of any new information generated; Costs of proposals for animal tests – where there is a need to undertake animal testing by virtue of following the ITS for mutagenicity or for PBT/vPvB assessment; and Registration fees – which vary by size of enterprise (micro, small, medium and large). Owing to the fact that registrations for 1-10t substances are substantially different from the much larger dossiers that must be produced for higher tonnage substances (which, include, for example, CSA) there is little or nothing that can be drawn from the experience of registrations submitted for the higher tonnage substances (>100t per year). The following sub-sections provide a description of the cost estimation and application of costs in the Monte Carlo model. With the exception of fees (which are fixed by Regulation), the cost of each component has been estimated by consideration of likely time and effort for each element. Some of the cost elements described above will be similar from one substance to another but most will vary depending on a range of factors including the extent to which further testing has been undertaken (and must be summarised), the number of other manufacturers and importers (M/Is) and the size of the M/I enterprise. A2.5.2 Registration Dossier costs Registration dossier costs relate to the general compilation of material for the dossier including physico-chemical information, general administration of the submission and liaison with ECHA. The costs of providing study summaries in the dossier are considered separately as these vary depending on the information gathered for a substance. Two levels of information are relevant for the registrations of 1-10t substances; registrations for substances needing only to provide physicochemical information and registrations for substances providing full toxicological and ecotoxicological information. For both levels, the Monte Carlo model distinguishes between joint registrations (by a consortium of manufacturers and or importers - M/Is) and individual registrations (by single M/Is). The latter may REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 164 occur either where there is only one M/I of a substance or in situations where one or more members of a consortium decide to make a separate (individual) submission of their own. The Monte Carlo model also distinguishes between dossiers compiled and submitted by M/Is of different sizes, with separate costs applied for micro, small, medium and large enterprises on the broad assumption that in-house expertise and experience is less developed in smaller companies and this affects the time taken to compile and submit a dossier (and increases the costs). The per substance costs of compiling full registration dossiers are provided in Table A2.17 for joint and individual full registrations. Costs are estimated as a range and reflect person day costs of €1,000 per day. Registrations containing physico-chemical information only are assumed to be 8090% of the full registration costs in Table A2.17 (as study summaries of toxicological and ecotoxicological testing information are considered separately). For joint registrations, the Monte Carlo model applies the cost for the largest size of M/I registering a substance. Table A2.17: Registration Dossier submission costs (€ per substance) Lower bound Cost of Individual Registration dossier for: Micro enterprises € 2,200 Small enterprises € 2,000 Medium enterprises € 2,000 Large enterprises € 1,500 Cost of Joint Registration dossier if: All members are micro enterprises € 2,800 Small is the largest member (no medium or large M/Is) € 2,500 Medium is the largest member (no large M/Is) € 2,500 Large € 2,000 A2.5.3 Upper Bound € 3,200 € 3,000 € 2,800 € 2,000 € 3,800 € 3,500 € 3,300 € 2,500 Cost of producing study summaries The total cost of producing study summaries for presentation in the dossier depends on the number and nature of the testing studies undertaken. For the purpose of modelling, these are best accounted for alongside the costs of testing as an additional cost of summarising the results of the test. Table A2.18 provides estimated costs of providing study summaries for each of the tests included in each of the information options. Costs are based on estimated time for a toxicologist (whether in-house or consultant) at €1,000 per day. Table A2.18: Cost of summarising information (€ per substance) Cost of summarising QSARs and other information for Annex III Annex VII 8.1. Skin irritation/ corrosion - In vitro skin corrosion/irritation Annex VII 8.2. Eye irritation - In vitro eye irritation Annex VII 8.3. Skin sensitisation - In vivo LLNA Annex VII 8.4.1 GMbact: gene mutation test in bacteria (Ames test) Annex VIII 8.4.2 CAbvitro, in vitro chromosome aberration test MNTvitro, in vitro micronucleus test Annex VIII 8.4.3 GMvitro:gene mutation assay in mammalian cells Annex IX 8.4.4 Cytvivo:cytogenetic assay in experimental animals Annex VIII 8.4.3 GMvivo:gene mutation assay in experimental animals - Mouse micronucleus assay Annex VII 8.5. Acute toxicity - Oral toxicity Annex VIII 8.5.2. Acute toxicity - Toxicity via Inhalation Annex VIII 8.5.3. Acute toxicity - Toxicity via Dermal routes REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 165 € 500 € 100 € 100 € 100 € 250 € 250 € 250 € 500 € 500 € 500 € 100 € 100 € 100 Table A2.18: Cost of summarising information (€ per substance) Annex VIII 8.6.1. Repeat dose toxicity - Short term (1 route only) Annex VII 9.1.1. Aquatic Toxicity - Invertebrate - short-term Annex VII 9.1.2. Aquatic Toxicity - Algal - short-term Annex VIII 9.1.3. Aquatic Toxicity - Fish – short-term Annex VII 9.2.1.1. Degradation - Biotic - Ready biodeg Cost of Screening for PBT/vPvB Properties Further testing for PBT/vPvB Assessment (once identified by screening) A2.5.4 € 250 € 100 € 100 € 100 € 100 € 250 € 1,000 Joint registration and SIEF administrative costs Joint registration and SIEF administrative costs are associated with time spent by each M/I when engaging with other registrants on shared information (as part of SIEFs) and also on the preparation of the dossier. Costs applied are as follows: Cost of engaging on information (applies to each registrant) = € 1,000 per M/I registering; and Cost of engaging on dossier preparation (applies to each registrant in a consortium) = € 750 per M/I jointly registering. For registrations that only include only physico-chemical information, costs are 80-90% of the above. A2.5.5 Costs of revising Substance Safety Data Sheets (SDSs) In the event that additional information under REACH results in a change in classification for a substance, there is a need to update the SDS for the substance. The Monte Carlo model applies a cost of €500 per substance for updating the SDS. A2.5.6 Costs of proposals for animal tests Before animal tests are carried out a proposal for animal testing must be submitted to ECHA. The Monte Carlo model applies a cost of €500 per proposal per substance. A2.5.7 Registration fees Registration fees and charges that apply to different sizes of enterprise are established under Commission Regulation68. The fees relevant to registration of 1-10t substances are provided as Table A2.19. Under Article 74(2) of REACH these fees do not apply when full toxicological and ecotoxicological data are provided. 68 Regulation No 340/2008 of 16 April 2008, as amended by the Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) No 254/2013 of 20 March 2013. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 166 Table A2.19: Registration fees for 1-10t substances (€ per M/I per substance) Individual Micro enterprises € 86 Small enterprises € 600 Medium enterprises € 1,114 Large enterprises € 1,714 Joint € 64 € 450 € 835 € 1,285 A2.6 Aggregation of Costs A2.6.1 Numbers of M/Is registering 1-10t substances by size of enterprise When applying and aggregating costs to provide an assessment of costs and cost impact, the Monte Carlo model must account for variations in costs associated with joint versus individual registrations and also variations in cost between micro, small, medium and large enterprises. The cost analysis, therefore, requires information on the registrants of the 1-10t substances and their size. As registrations for 1-10t substances are yet to be submitted and M/Is are still deciding what/whether to register which substances and at what tonnage band there is no certain knowledge on any of the following : The number of M/Is registering substances; The size of the M/I enterprises registering the substances (micr0, small, medium and large); and The number of substances in the portfolios of companies of different size. At the time of the first and the revised BIAs for REACH (in 2003 and then in 2006), despite extensive consultation and review of data there was very little information on the structure of the industry and manufacturers of the lower tonnage substances in general. The same was found in the Phase 1 study (in 2012). For this Phase 2 study (in 2014), as part of data review and information gathering in relation to competition and innovation effects, we have undertaken consultation with industry to identify whether the same knowledge gaps exist and, where they do, whether industry can provide estimates that would inform the simulation. In terms of consultation, a structured questionnaire designed to elicit (amongst other things) quantitative information that could be of use to the simulation. This was circulated by CSES to organisations considered as likely to be able to provide valuable feedback (mainly industry associations and also individual companies) and interviews were also undertaken. Some declined the invitation to participate and all individual companies requested to remain anonymous but we had interviews or meetings with the following associations: The Chemical Industries Association (UK) - several company members were present, some of which were subsequently interviewed individually; Federchimica (Centro REACH); CEFIC; REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 167 VCI (Verband der Chemischen Industrie e.V., Germany), with whom we had a conference call in which several global chemical companies participated; and ORO (Only Representatives Organisation). It became clear early on in the consultation process that there was very little information available on the 1-10t market in general and little or no information on the M/Is of different sizes and their product portfolios. The following conclusions were drawn in relation to information on numbers of substances to be registered by different M/Is: Numbers of 1-10t registrations by size of M/I: there is very little general information and even companies consulted identified that it is too early to say which substances will be registered in the 1-10t band, which will be registered in the 10-100t band and which will not be registered at all. Much of the uncertainty appears to hinge on which substances will still be used in a few years’ time. As 2018 gets closer more pressure is to be expected on Only Representatives (ORs) and whether foreign manufacturers will register. Intentions are not clear yet and a good deal of uncertainty and instability is to be expected; That said, for a proportion of substances it is known that registration will be completed because the substances in question will certainly still be in use (as they are essential/important for various reasons); The decision to register is influenced by the future life-cycle profitability of the substances in question. In some instances notice has already been given of withdrawals, but generally speaking it seems that there may be a certain advantage for manufacturers not to advise of withdrawal for as long as possible (especially if they sell through others) plus the market can change rapidly; the consultation and research confirms that there remains very little information available on the 1-10t substances; Companies spoken to in depth (mainly low value added category) are acutely aware of costs, but even the larger firms or manufacturers of high value substances are playing it very carefully so as not to end up registering substances for which there will not be a demand in 2018 (cost is not always the driver); and Companies seem to be postponing or (or not making public) decisions about registration – in some instances because of the uncertainty involved, in some instances because it suits them commercially to reveal their intentions as late as possible. Given the large number of imports from outside the EU, some dislocation and consolidation will occur as the 2018 registration date approaches. Regarding the questionnaire, respondents were asked for any information on (or to use their industry knowledge and expertise to estimate) 1-10t registrations in general. Of particular interest for modelling impacts on company level costs (and therein effects on innovation and competitiveness) were questions aimed at generating information on: 1. The number of registrants for different substances – in particular, the percentage of substance registrations of 1-10t substances that would be submitted by: Only one M/I; 2-3 M/Is; 4-6 M/Is; 6-10 M/Is; 10-15 M/Is; 15 or more; REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 168 2. The number of substances in the portfolios of micro, small, medium and large enterprises; and 3. The number of micro, small, medium and large companies expected to register 1-10t substances. As might be expected from the above general conclusions, few felt they had enough knowledge or information to comment on the generality of 1-10t registrations and few responses were received. For those responses that were received, depending in the question, estimates varied but appeared at least to suggest the following: In relation to the number of registrants for different substances, generally low numbers of registrants are expected for 1-10t substances with most substances having in the range of 2-6 M/Is, some with only one and some greater than 6 M/Is. This is broadly consistent with the assumptions and values applied in the 2003 and 2006 BIAs. Regarding the number of 1-10t substances in the portfolios of micro, small, medium and large M/Is, there is obvious uncertainty (as indicated by the general conclusions of the consultation) however there seems to be a consensus that large M/Is will have larger portfolios and smaller M/Is smaller ones. Again, this is consistent with assumptions and values applied in previous studies. No useful information was gained from the consultation concerning the numbers of M/Is or different sizes registering. However, statistical information can be gleaned from EUROSTAT. Values applied in the simulation The expected percentage of substance registrations of 1-10t substances that would be submitted by different numbers of M/Is are provided in Table A2.20. As noted above, these are estimates based on expected trends and should be sufficient for simulation and analysis of the costs of the different options (especially as these estimates apply equally across all of the options). From Table A2.20, the calculated overall average number of M/Is across the 20,000 1-10t substances is 4.4. Table A2.20: Number of registrants for different 1-10t substances Expected percentage of substance registrations Only one M/I 13% 2-3 M/Is 4-6 M/Is 6-10 M/Is 10-15 M/Is 38% 30% 12% 7% Numbers of 1-10t substance registrations 2,600 7,600 6,000 2,400 1,400 Regarding the numbers of M/Is of different sizes expected to register 1-10t substances, data have been drawn from the analysis of EUROSTAT data undertaken for the Phase 1 study69. This suggests the numbers of different M/Is in Table A2.21. 69 Changes in codes and groupings in EUROSTAT mean that it is not possible to reproduce the analysis with the same resolution as for the 2009 data. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 169 Table A2.21: Number of manufacturers and importers of substances in quantities of between 1 and 10 tonnes in the EU27 by size of the companies Micro Small Medium Large Total C19.20: Manufacture of refined petroleum products 663 246 119 75 1,123 C20.11: Manufacture of industrial gases 700 241 111 33 1,085 C20.12: Manufacture of dyes and pigments 370 127 59 18 574 C20.13: Manufacture of other inorganic basic 658 226 104 31 1,020 chemicals C20.13: Manufacture of other organic basic 1,354 465 214 65 2,098 chemicals C21.10: Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical 374 240 131 55 800 products C23.14: Manufacture of glass fibres 455 85 20 5 565 C23.20: Manufacture of refractory products 696 129 31 7 863 C24.41: Precious metals production 374 148 76 28 647 C24.45: Other non-ferrous metal production 433 171 88 32 749 Manufacturers 6,077 2,079 953 349 9,524 Importers 2,496 457 110 27 3,093 Total (rounded) 8,600 2,500 1,100 400 12,600 Source: EUROSTAT Structural Business Statistics database Carrying these estimates through to the next step it is possible to estimate the average size of portfolios of companies of different sizes. Here, as noted above, there is much uncertainty on the exact numbers but agreement that large M/Is will have larger portfolios and vice versa. Table A2.22 provides the number of M/Is of different sizes and estimates of the size of portfolios of each. For the simulation, the average number of substances registered across the 20,000 substances that can be derived from the data in Table A2.22 must be consistent with that drawn from the data in Table A2.20 above (i.e. 4.4). The portfolio sizes given in Table A2.22 have been derived with reference to this and adjusted until they produce an average of 4.4 M/Is per substance. Table A2.22: 1-10t registrations by size of company Size of enterprise Number of companies registering 1-10t substances Average number of 1-10t substances in M/I portfolio A2.6.2 Micro Small Medium Large 8,600 5 2,500 7 1,100 12 400 36 Allocation and aggregation of costs The overall cost of registration for a substance depends on a number of factors where these include: whether (and how much) toxicological and ecotoxicological information is required (or not); the number of manufacturers and importers (M/Is) submitting a registration for the substance; the number of these M/Is that will be part of a joint submission and the number that will submit an individual submission; and the size of the M/I enterprise(s) registering a substance. To provide an assessment of costs and impact, the Monte Carlo model achieves this by considering one substance at a time, calculating costs and impact using a simulation that describes the likelihood REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 170 of the different situations, factors, events and M/I composition for each substance. In simple terms, for each substance the Monte Carlo model carries out the following steps in order: Step 1: Property profile and pathway - the Monte Carlo model generates a profile and pathway through registration and information according to the option. This profile is developed probabilistically using the information already provided in Sections A2.2 to A2.3 which governs: whether a substance must generate toxicolocial and ecotoxicological information under each of the options; the cost of generating standard the information for an option for that substance considering the available information and the need to purchase any existing test information from the owner versus generate new information; whether a substance meets any of the criteria requiring further studies for mutagenicity and/or PBT/vPvB assessment and, therein, the costs of providing that information (and summarising it in a dossier). Step 2: Number of M/Is registering - the Monte Carlo model allocates a number of M/Is registering the substance based on the percentages given in Table A2.20 (for example, there is a 13% chance that a substance may only have one M/I, a 38% chance that it will have 2-3, etc.); Step 3: Size of M/Is registering - having assigned a number of M/Is to the substance in Step 2, the Monte Carlo model then assigns a code denoting the size of each of the M/Is registering the substance (micro, small, medium or large). This is done in different ways for different substances and registrants depending on whether there is existing test information on the substance according to the modelled outcomes of Step 1: For substances for which information on all current Annex VII endpoints already exists the modelled simulation assumes that the first registrant (or only registrant in the case of substances where there is only one M/I) owns that information and that this M/I is a large enterprise; For substances for which information on some Annex VII endpoints already exists the modelled simulation assumes that the first registrant (or only registrant in the case of substances where there is only one M/I) owns that information and that there is a 75% chance that this M/I is a large enterprise and a 25% chance that it of medium size; For all other M/Is registering (and for all substances for which there is no information), the Monte Carlo model assigns a size group to each of the M/Is on the basis of probability. Here, logically, the probability that an M/I may be micro, small, medium or large is a function of the numbers of M/Is of each different size expected to submit registration dossiers for 1-10t substances and the average number of 110t substances to be registered by each (the portfolio size). The product of the values for each M/I in Table A2.22 when expressed as a percentage of the total across all M/Is gives the percentage probability of an M/I being micro versus small versus medium versus large. Step 4: Joint versus individual registration submitted – where there is only one M/I the registration for the substance is, by default, an individual registration. Where there is more REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 171 than one M/I the Monte Carlo model determines whether all manufacturers will submit a joint registration or whether the consortium will break into both joint and individual registrations. The simulation assumes that in 70% of cases all M/Is submit a single joint registration. This leaves a 30% probability of there being a joint registration plus one or more individual registrations for a substance70. The simulation assumes that, where this occurs for a substance, between 20% and 30% of the M/Is registering that substance will submit individual submissions and the remainder will submit jointly. For each substance, the Monte Carlo simulation model randomly selects a percentage value between these two ranges (20-30%). Applying the above steps, the modelled simulation allocates the appropriate cost to the individual and/or joint registration of the substance accounting for the size of the M/Is (which affects the registration dossier costs), the number of M/Is (which affects the costs of SIEFs and administration of the joint registration) and the property profile and pathway of the substance (which affects costs of testing and information, updating the SDS, proposals for animal tests, study summaries). Where there is more than one M/I registering a substance, some costs are shared between all registrants regardless of whether it is a joint registration or a mixture of joint and one or more individual registrations. These costs comprise testing and information costs, participation in SIEFs, study summaries and SDS costs. Where there is a joint registration, registration dossier submission costs are shared between the members of the consortium only and where there are individual registrations the appropriate individual registration cost applies. Where test information exists, the cost of access to this information is shared between all but the first registrant (who is assumed to own the information). All cost sharing between members of the consortium is allocated on the basis of the tonnes produced by each manufacturer. Finally, the appropriate fee is allocated to each manufacturer. For each substance the modelled simulation produces the total cost of registration for each M/I registering that substance where each M/I is allocated a unique identity number. When run on 20,000 substances, then, this produces a results table of the estimated costs of registration under each of the options for each of the 12,600 M/Is of these 20,000 1-10t substances. Using a pivot table, these data can be re-ordered and summarised to produce data on the total costs of the each of the options to each M/I considering the number of 1-10t substances registered each M/I. In other words, for each M/I the modelled simulation produces estimates of the total costs across all of the 1-10t substances registered by that M/I. Grouped into M/Is of different sizes, this allows assessment of impacts on SMEs versus larger enterprises (amoungst many other things). 70 This is higher than for registrations in 2010 for >1000t substances. This is to reflect the fact that speciality chemicals may comprise a more significant proportion of the number of substances in the 1-10t band and MIs may not wish to share information on the specialised (and hence potentially commercially sensitive) uses of substances. REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 172 REACH 1- 10 tonnes Phase 2 RPA & CSES | 173 Risk & Policy Analysts Limited Farthing Green House, 1 Beccles Road Loddon, Norfolk, NR14 6LT, United Kingdom Tel: +44 1508 528465 Fax: +44 1508 520758 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.rpaltd.co.uk If printed by RPA, this report is published on 100% recycled paper
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