Adopt, Adapt, Advance: Innovating for the Future ERBD wishes to acknowledge Flagship Forum Partner Major Forum Partners Special Event Partner Forum Partners The Panel 1 2 1.Hakan Ayen 2.Beata Javorcik 3.Ralph de Haas 3 4 5 4.George Chirakadze 5.Albert Bravo-Biosca TRANSITION REPORT 2014 tr.ebrd.com Adopt, Adapt, Advance: Innovating for TEXT TEXT the Future Produced by the Office of the Chief Economist, EBRD. © European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Background: Economic convergence is slowing down Real GDP growth in excess of Adv. Ec., per cent 12 Georgia relative to advanced economies 10 8 Emerging markets relative to advanced economies 6 4 2 0 CESEE region relative to advanced economies -2 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 -4 Sources: IMF WEO, EBRD REP, weighted averages. 5 Firms need to become more productive • Some firms are as productive as leaders in advanced markets… • …but laggards must adopt and adapt – or die – to raise aggregate productivity and get countries unstuck Share of firms Transition region Israel Productivity 6 Adopt, Adapt, Advance: Picking the low-hanging fruit Innovation is about improving productivity within firms Innovation goes well beyond R&D in high-tech sectors Products and production processes new to the firm Firms Adopt, Adapt and Advance towards technological frontier 7 Growth 1993-2010 Who innovates the most? 8 Growth 1993-2010 % of firms that innovate Exporters Source: : BEEPS V, MENA ES 9 Growth 1993-2010 Higher likelihood of innovation (GVC vs. non-GVC firms) Firms in global value chains Source: : BEEPS V, MENA ES 10 Firms with access to credit Percentage of firms that innovate 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Product innovation No credit demand Process innovation Unfulfilled credit demand Fulfilled credit demand 11 Growth 1993-2010 Who should innovate more (or perhaps less)? 12 250 250 30 Percentage of firms that innovate Percentage of firms that innovate Percentage increase in labour productivity Percentage increase in labour productivity Pay-off from innovation highest in low-tech industries 25 200 200 20 150 150 15 100 100 10 50 50 5 0 0 0 Higher-tech sectors Higher-tech sectors Medium-low-tech sectors Medium-low-tech sectors Percentage of firms engaged in product innovation Percentage of firms engaged in product innovation Low-tech sectors Low-tech sectors Impact of product innovation on productivity Impact of product innovation on productivity 13 Less advanced countries: Management matters most? Growth Increase in1993-2010 productivity, % Increase in productivity, % Management needs to be improved before new processes can yield substantial productivity gains Source: BEEPS V, MENA ES 14 The Panel 1 2 1.Hakan Ayen 2.Beata Javorcik 3.Ralph de Haas 3 4 5 4.George Chirakadze 5.Albert Bravo-Biosca Harnessing FDI for Economic Growth Beata Javorcik University of Oxford What are the essential ingredients for fast and sustained economic growth? Openness Import knowledge Exploit global demand Leadership and governance Credible commitment to growth Credible commitment to inclusion Capable administration Market allocation Prices guide resources Long-term focus High savings Macroeconomic stability Modest inflation Sustainable public finances Multinational firms (MNCs) are creators of knowledge MNCs are responsible for most of the world’s R&D 700 multinational corporations accounted for 46% of the world’s total R&D expenditure and 69% of the world’s business R&D in 2002 (UNCTAD 2005) MNCs’ R&D budgets may exceed R&D spending of countries (2002, $bn) Knowledge brought by MNCs boosts the performance of FDI recipients Total factor productivity (in logs) Pre-acquisition Year Acquisition year One year later Two years later FDI recipients 0.864 1.079 1.142 1.215 Control group 0.867 0.976 1.022 1.083 0.106*** (0.034) 0.122*** (0.045) 0.135*** (0.051) Difference Knowledge brought by MNCs boosts the performance of FDI recipients Total factor productivity (in logs) Pre-acquisition Year Acquisition year One year later Two years later FDI recipients 0.864 1.079 1.142 1.215 Control group 0.867 0.976 1.022 1.083 0.106*** (0.034) 0.122*** (0.045) 0.135*** (0.051) Difference Knowledge brought by MNCs boosts the performance of FDI recipients Total factor productivity (in logs) Pre-acquisition Year Acquisition year One year later Two years later FDI recipients 0.864 1.079 1.142 1.215 Control group 0.867 0.976 1.022 1.083 0.106*** (0.034) 0.122*** (0.045) 0.135*** (0.051) Difference Foreign ownership leads to rapid changes (d) Employment (c) Output 6.00 11.40 11.20 11.00 10.80 10.60 10.40 10.20 10.00 5.80 5.60 5.40 t-1 t0 t+1 t-1 t+2 (e) Average wage 9.00 8.80 8.60 8.40 8.20 8.00 7.80 7.60 t-1 t0 t+1 t+2 t0 t+1 t+2 Foreign ownership facilitates integration into global markets (h) Export share (i) Import input share 45 35 40 30 35 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 t-1 t0 t+1 t+2 t-1 t0 t+1 t+2 Knowledge brought by MNCs spills over to local suppliers Local suppliers Higher productivity Moving up the value chain Increased complexity of products MNCs Conclusion By serving as a channel of knowledge transfer, FDI inflows can stimulate economic growth and innovation in host countries Thank you The Panel 1 2 1.Hakan Ayen 2.Beata Javorcik 3.Ralph de Haas 3 4 5 4.George Chirakadze 5.Albert Bravo-Biosca •The new global laboratory for innovation and growth policy Albert Bravo-Biosca EBRD Annual Meeting, 15th May 2015 Why do we need more experimentation? Policy Business Innovation and entrepreneurship policy… … but little evidence on what works, and what doesn’t Typically start big… …without prior smallscale testing Why not trial different designs to learn what works? What is an experiment? A continuum of definitions… Trying something new • No rigorous learning or evaluation strategy • No real “testing mindset” • A “pilot” Trying something new and put in place the systems to learn • Rigorous formal research design • Test a hypothesis • Codifying and sharing resulting knowledge • Sometimes but not always with some form of control group RCTs • Randomised controlled trials • Control group created by the programme manager/researcher using a lottery • Field vs. “lab” experiments • Different from a natural experiment 1. Experiment Control group 2. Evaluate 3. Scale-up IGL is a new global collaboration led by Nesta that develops and tests different approaches to support innovation, entrepreneurship and growth Our aims: 1. Improve the evidence base on the effectiveness of interventions 2. Encourage experimentation with new interventions 3. Push forward the knowledge frontier Our partners And on-going discussions with several other organisations IGL Research Network Some of our projects Incentivising employees to contribute new ideas Supporting technology development in emerging economies Increasing bank lending for intangible-rich SMEs •The new global laboratory for innovation and growth policy www.innovationgrowthlab.org The Panel 1 2 1.Hakan Ayen 2.Beata Javorcik 3.Ralph de Haas 3 4 5 4.George Chirakadze 5.Albert Bravo-Biosca The floor is open for questions
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