Burden of disease from rising coal emissions in Asia International Symposium on Climate Change and Coal May 29, 2015 Shannon Koplitz1, Daniel Jacob1, Lauri Myllyvirta2, Melissa Sulprizio1 1Harvard University 2Greenpeace International Coal emissions are harmful to human health Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) SO2 NOx Ozone (O3) Image sources: cliparts.co; www.envpl.ipb.ac.rs; Jupiterimages Corporation; www.intechopen.com/source/html/42164/media/ image4.png Respiratory and cardiovascular disease SO2 and NOx from power plants oxidize in the atmosphere to form particulate matter (PM). NOx can also increase ozone concentrations. Both PM and ozone lead to premature mortality in people. Coal emissions declining in the U.S. due to public health concern Difference in SO2 emissions (2010 – 2005) Klimont et al., 2013 Coal emissions in many Asian countries are currently following the same upwards trajectory that has taken decades to reverse in the U.S. and Europe. Coal use is expanding rapidly in Southeast Asia Coal power plant locations by 2030 Operating Projected Sources: Platts WEPP Database, Coalswarm.org There are currently more than 400 coal plants scheduled for development in Asia outside China and India. Many of these plants are already under construction. Project Objectives 1. Calculate surface PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day and estimated 2030 coal emissions in East and Southeast Asia (excluding emissions from China and India). 2. Estimate the human health burden of this rising coal pollution. Approach 1. Attribute changes in PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day (2011) and projected 2030 coal emissions using GEOS-Chem 2. Apply concentration-response relationships from the literature (Krewski et al., 2009; Anenberg et al., 2010) to estimate the premature mortality due to coal-related pollution. Power plant emissions vary widely by facility Boiler type Emission control technologies Fluidized Bed Combustion (FBC) Selective catalytic reduction (NOx) Flue gas desulferization (SO2) Stoker Type of coal Images: Ciris Energy; AECOM Process Technologies; dieselnet.com; energy-models.com/boilers Plant specific factors such as the grade of coal being combusted or the emission control technologies in place affect the magnitude and type of emissions coming from each individual coal fired power plant. We develop a detailed inventory of the currently operating fleet S. Korea Myanmar Coal SO2 Emissions (Present Day ~2011) Japan 7 Vietnam 6 Taiwan Thailand Tg yr-1 Philippines 5 4 3 2 Malaysia 1 0 Indonesia China U.S. Countries in China India India U.S. this work Lu et al., 2011; EPA Annual ARP report 2013 Emissions of SO2 and NOx from coal plants are currently highest in Indonesia, followed by Thailand and Japan. Coal emissions likely to surpass U.S. levels by 2030 S. Korea Coal SO2 Emissions Myanmar Japan 7 Vietnam 6 Taiwan Thailand Tg yr-1 Philippines Increase by 2030 5 4 3 2 Malaysia 0 Indonesia 2011 1 China U.S. Countries in China India India U.S. this work Lu et al., 2011; EPA Annual ARP report 2013 If all projected plants become operational, Asian coal emissions of SO2 and NOx could triple by 2030. Indonesia and Vietnam together account for 67% of this projected increase, as well as an additional 35 million people by 2030. GEOS-Chem simulates the concentrations of pollutants Emission inventories Pollutant concentrations 40oN 10.00 o 30 N 5.00 2.00 20oN 1.00 0.50 10oN Assimilated meteorology 0.20 0.10 0o 10oS Global 3-D CTM 100oE 120oE 140oE 40oN 35000 o 30 N 30000 20 N used by many GEOS-Chem is a global 3-D chemical transport model research groups around the world to advance our understanding of 10 N atmospheric composition and to answer policy relevant questions pertaining 0 to air quality and climate change. o o o 10oS 100oE 120oE 140oE 25000 20000 15000 10000 50000 0 Project Objectives 1. Calculate surface PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day and estimated 2030 coal emissions in East and Southeast Asia (excluding emissions from China and India). 2. Estimate the human health burden of this rising coal pollution. Approach 1. Attribute changes in PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day (2011) and projected 2030 coal emissions using GEOS-Chem 2. Apply concentration-response relationships from the literature (Krewski et al., 2009; Anenberg et al., 2010) to estimate the premature mortality due to coal-related pollution. Coal pollution correlates with populated areas ΔPM2.5 from 2030 Coal ΔOzone from 2030 Coal 40oN 40oN 30oN Hanoi 10.00 30oN 5.00 2.00 20oN 1.00 o 20 N 40oN 10.00 30oN 2.00 o 20 N 1.00 0.50 10 N 0.50 10oN 0.20 10 N 0o 0.100o 0o o 5.00 o 0.20 0.10 ppb µg m-3 10oS o 100 E Jakarta 40oN 30oN 20oN 10oN o 120 E o 140 E 10oS o 10 o S 100 E o oE 120 100 E o oE 140 120 E 140oE Koplitz et al., in prep 40oN The largest annual average enhancements in PM from coal occur near 350000 populated areas, particularly Hanoi350000 and Jakarta. Ozone enhancements are 30oN 300000 300000 highest over Sumatra in Indonesia, as well as much of Thailand and 250000 250000 Vietnam. 200000 20oN 200000 150000 150000 100000 10oN 100000 0.50 10oN 10oN 25000 0.20 0.10 0o 0 0o Exposure depends on both pollution levels and population density 10 S 10 S 100 E 120 E 140 E 100 E 120 E 140 E o o o o o o o o 30oN 2010 Population Map ΔPM2.5 from 2030 Coal 25oN 10.00 350000 350000 40oN 300000 300000 250000 o250000 20oN 10.00 350000 15oN o 300000 30 N 250000 10 N 200000 2.00 5.00 N 20 150000 2.00 200000 20oN 150000 5N 0.50 100000 0.20 1.00 o 100000 100000 10o50000 N 50000 0 0 population0 E 120o115 E oE 125o120 E oE 130o125 E oE 50000 130oE 0.50 10oN 140oE 0.10 0o 90oE 120oE µg m-3 95oE 100oE 105oE 110oE 115oE 120oE 125oE 10 S 100oE o 30 N 120oE 10oS 140oE Total Exposure in 2030 (ΔPM2.5 x Population) 25oN 40 N 10.0020oN o Total exposure is highest in 5.00 2.00 Indonesia and Vietnam, followed N 20 1.00 by China due to high population 0.50 10 N levels in southern China near 0.20 0.10 Vietnamese emissions. 0 o 15 N o 10oN o 100oE 120oE 140oE 100000 100000 350000 30 No 30 N 5N 0o 0o0o 5 oS o 1010 SoS 90oE 75000 300000 75000 250000 20oNo 20 N 10oNo 10 N o o 10oS 125000 40oNo 40 N o 30 N 200000 50000 50000 150000 25000 100000 25000 50000 0 0 0 95oE o 100 100EoE 100oE 105oE o 120 120EoE 110oE 115oE o o 140 140E E 120oE 125oE 0o 130oE o o 10oN 0.20 5 oS 100oE 20oN 0.10 0 o 10oS 0o 30oN 1.00 o o 150000 40oN 5.00 30 N 200000 40oN 130oE 1 Project Objectives 1. Calculate surface PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day and estimated 2030 coal emissions in East and Southeast Asia (excluding emissions from China and India). 2. Estimate the human health burden of this rising coal pollution. Approach 1. Attribute changes in PM and ozone concentrations due to both present day (2011) and projected 2030 coal emissions using GEOS-Chem 2. Apply concentration-response relationships from the literature (Krewski et al., 2009; Anenberg et al., 2010) to estimate the premature mortality due to coal-related pollution. We estimate 16,000 deaths annually from current coal Excess Deaths Per Year 2011: 14,860 PM 1,530 ozone 16,390 total 2030 increase: 24,160 PM 2,390 ozone 26,550 total = 42,940 excess deaths per year Including a 10% population increase by 2030 in both Indonesia and Vietnam, we estimate 43,000 deaths annually by 2030 if all projected plants become operational. Assessment of national contributions to coal pollution is ongoing Annual Mortality from Vietnam Coal Contribution of Vietnam to 2030 ΔPM2.5 30oN 30oN 10.00 25oN 25oN 5.00 o 20 N 2.00 1.00 15oN 20oN 15oN 2011: 3,827 12 2030 increase: 14,169 75 10 50 0.50 o 10 N 0.20 5 oN 0.10 µg m-3 o 0 o 90 E o 100 E o 110 E o 120 E o 130 E 10oN 5 oN 0o o 90 E 100oE = 17,996 excess deaths 110 E year 120 E per o o 30oN 25oN 20oN 15oN 10oN 350000 We have assessed country level contributions for South Korea, Vietnam, 300000 and Taiwan. Results for Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Myanmar 250000 and the Philippines will be completed over the next few months. 200000 150000 100000 25 0 130oE New projections for Japanese plants could change results Bloomberg Business, April 09 2015 17 in our analysis Including emissions from recently announced coal plants could change estimates of health effects from Japanese coal emissions. Summary • Coal fired power plant emissions of SO2 and NOx form particulate matter and ozone which are detrimental to human health. • Coal emissions in Southeast Asia are projected to triple by 2030. • Without abatement, these projected emissions could lead to more than 40,000 excess deaths every year. Please email [email protected] for more information about this work. Thank you for listening!
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