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3. How to make Sustainable Low Carbon Society
- Synergy of Social and Engineering System June 24（Tue）, 2008
Venue
: Conference Hall, Hokkaido University
Main Organizer(s) : Hokkaido University Initiative for Sustainable Development
Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University
Faculty of Public Policy, Hokkaido University
Overview of The Symposium
By Fumikazu Yoshida, Naoyuki Funamizu
“How to make Sustainable Low Carbon Society -Synergy of Social and Engineering System-”
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Chair
Fumikazu Yoshida
Professor
Faculty of Public Policy, Hokkaido University, Japan
Chair
Naoyuki Funamizu
Professor,
Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University, Japan
Overview of The Symposium
The purpose of the symposium was to discuss how to produce synergistic eﬀects between the science of
public policy, which seeks to reorganize social systems, and engineering, which pursues technological
solutions, with the aim of accelerating the shift toward a sustainable low-carbon society.
The program consisted of two sessions. In the ﬁrst, under the topic “Social System Transformation”,
Prof. Zou Ji (China), Prof. Thierry Hommel (France), and Prof. Kazuhiro Ueda (Kyoto) gave lectures
followed by a lively discussion. The speakers stressed the emerging trend toward low-carbon technologies
and the need for this type of development, and called for studies to compare Japan’s experience in
reducing sulfur oxide emissions in the 1960s and 1970s with the current situation in nations around the
world.
In the second session, Prof. Taikan Oki (Tokyo) and Visiting Prof. Yasumoto Magara (Hokkaido) spoke
on the theme, “The Technical Challenges of Water as a Fundamental System of Human Society.” Among
other points, they discussed the severity of the water problems that exist today and warned that the
situation will only get worse as climate change leads to increasingly frequent droughts and ﬂoods. They
noted that, although the debate has tended to focus on ways of mitigating climate change, studying
ways to cope with it should also be a priority; and they emphasized the importance of governance in
maintaining water systems.
- 113 -
Overview of The Symposium
By Fumikazu Yoshida, Naoyuki Funamizu
Lastly, the moderators, Prof. Fumikazu Yoshida and Prof. Naoyuki Funamizu (both of Hokkaido) joined
the speakers for a panel discussion on how to produce synergies between the science of public policy
and engineering. After making the point that technology should be developed with a clear goal and
rationale in mind, lest the means become an end in itself, the panelists then addressed the true purpose
of technical solutions and suggested that it is to improve the quality of life. Turning to the globalization
of technology, they discussed whether the Japanese experience is meaningful in a broader context and
concluded that in order to pass on experience with particular technologies or mechanisms for their
diﬀusion, it is important to take the approach summarized by the term “localized technology,” which is
based on mutual comparisons and exchanges and on the measurement and assessment of local needs.
The symposium was well attended by students and researchers alike and ﬁlled the venue to the point of
standing room only. In the question-and-answer sessions after the lectures and in the panel discussion,
there was lively participation from the audience.
- 114 -
Development and Transfer of ESTs: A Pillar of the International Climate Regime post 2012
By Zou Ji
How to make Sustainable Low Carbon Society - Synergy of Social and Engineering System Session 1 : Tuesday, June 24, 2008 / 9:15am – 10:00am
Speaker
Zou Ji
Vice Dean
School of Environment and Natural Resources,
Renmin University, China
Presentation Data: http://eprints.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/dspace/handle/2115/34494
Development and Transfer of ESTs: A Pillar of the International
Climate Regime post 2012
Contents
International Symposium on how to make sustainable low carbon society
Synergy of social and engineering system
• Why climate sound technologies (CSTs)?
• Understanding the CSTs: a whole package for
effectiveness
• Categorizing technology-related activities and
identifying leverage points
• Measuring effectiveness of D&D&T of CSTs
• Technology needs assessment: findings from a
pilot study in China
• Enabling environment: promoting policies and
innovative financing
• Fundamental challenge and barriers: market
failure and others
• Needs for strategic innovation on international
enabling mechanism
Development and Transfer
of ESTs: A Pillar of the International
Climate Regime post 2012
Ji Zou, Professor
School of Environment and Natural Resources
Renmin University of China
It’s a matter of development paths:
Conventional v.s. Innovative (SD)
GHG
Emission
Technology change is the only
way-out for developing countries
Emission Energy
GDP
Emission �
*
*
*Population
Energy
GDP Population
Conventional path
Limits of GHGs emission
How to make this shift?
Innovative
SD path
Inputs:
1. Install low carbon technologies
2. Human resources
3. Policies and measures
4. Financial resources
Technology changes lead to efficiency
improvement
GDP per capita
0
- 115 -
Inevitable courses
Development and Transfer of ESTs: A Pillar of the International Climate Regime post 2012
By Zou Ji
Concept of lock-in effects in Power Sector
Urgency: Avoiding Lock-in effects
relationship between capital investment, M&O cost, and efficiency/emission level
Technology
Index, efficiency
• Energy-intensive infrastructure sectors are
easy to be locked-in: power, heating, airconditioning, transport system, buildings……;
• The lifespan for infrastructure operation is
very long: over several decades;
• Not easy to change the emission feature of
existing infrastructure with very high replace
costs
• Rapid and massive construction of
infrastructure in developing countries, e.g., in
China, cannot wait for a slow and modest CST
flow into their economies, given the keen
anticipation to improve living standards and
alleviate poverty.
Tech 2
e.g., capacity of single generation set
Fixed and
M&O Cost
Capital invest.1
Tech 1
Capital invest.2
year
M&O Cost 1
M&O Cost 2
emission
Emission 1
year
Emission 2
year
1. High carbon tech scenario; 2. Low carbon tech scenario.
CO2 Emission Reduction and Corresponding Technological Change
and Capital Investment in Thermal Power Sector in china, 2020 and 2030
Technological options and Small
changes in capacity (MW) sets
Normal
sets
Sub
critical
Super
critical
USC
IGCC
105943
103640
156768
17500
0
0
2020
-72930
-20000
749000
0
0
0
2030
0
-50000
520000
0
0
0
2020
-72930
-70000
189000
200000
380000
30000
2030
0
-60000
0
0
430000
100000
2005
BAU
Scenario
Tech
Improving
Scenario
Capital Investment
(bln USD)
2006—2020, 57
2006—2030, 135
Accumulative CO2
reduction�Mt-CO2�
2006—2020, 998�
2006—2030, 2, 875
Potential of Technology Change
• The gap of general energy efficiency between
China (35%) and the OECD average (45%) is
up to 10%.
• This shows a current potential for China to
control its GHG emission by improving its
energy efficiency with more efficient
technologies available from developed
countries.
• With large share of energy use and GHG
emission, only several percentage points of
improvement in energy efficiency may lead to
significant GHG reduction.
Source: Ji Zou and S. Fu, 2008
Energy efficiency for major products in China, 1990 - 2004
�energy consumption
Int’l
standard
China
1990
Gaps in 2004�
2000
2004
�
absolute
363
349
299.4
49.6
16.57
392
376
312
64
20.51
alternating current consumption
for Electrolytic Aluminum �kwh 16233
�t�
15480
15080
14100
980
7.00
Steel �large firm��kgce�ton)
997
784
705
610
95
15.57
cement�kgce�ton �
201.1
181
157
127.3
29.7
23.33
Crude oil process�kgce�ton �
102.5
118.4
112
73
39
53.42
Ethene �kgce�ton �
Thermal power generation Coal
392
consumption�gce�kwh�
Power plant electric supply
Coal consumption�gce�kwh �
427
�
1580
1125
1004
629
375
59.62
synthetic ammonia �kgce�ton�
1343
�large scale�
1327
1314
970
344
35.46
Paper and cardboard� kgce�ton�1550
1540
1500
640
860
134.38
�Source: Qinyi Wang, International Petroleum Economics,
Understanding
Climate Sound Technology:
A Whole Package for Effectiveness
2006, NO.2
CSTs’ Nature: providing for
climate benefit as global public goods
CSTs work as a whole package
CST may include:
• Climate benefits are core returns of CSTs;
• More rapid and effective development, transfer, diffusion,
and deployment of CSTs in developing countries are of
great importance to protect global climate as global
public goods;
• These global public goods are shared and enjoyed by
both developed and developing countries; and
• It may be regarded as an efficient global allocation of
technology resources to curb global warming.
• We need to find out an innovative mechanism to realize
the above global allocation of technologies efficiently and
effectively.
– Hardware: devices, equipment, process, etc.;
– Software: IPRs, designs, know-how,;
– Enabling environment: mechanism, policies,
appropriate institutional arrangement; and
infrastructure
– Human resources: awareness, well trained
and qualified; and
– Financial resources to make D&T&T happen.
- 116 -
Development and Transfer of ESTs: A Pillar of the International Climate Regime post 2012
By Zou Ji
Category of Technologies
Different types of technologies may apply to
different stakeholders and policy instruments
• By stage of technologies
–
–
–
–
Invention: earlier/pioneer/basic R&D,
Innovation: R&D for pre-competitive, demonstration
Diffusion: marketing, deployment,
Application: in place to produce environmental and
commercial benefits
Stage of tech
dimensions
• By sectors: differences in scale of capital, intensity
of knowledge, intelligence, and corresponding market
structure (perfect, imperfect and monopoly market)
• By owners: public sectors vs private sectors
• By mechanism for transfer and development:
– trade,
– FDI,
– innovative pattern (PPP)
Invention Innovation
Diffusion and
R&D
R&D (demo) Deployment
Stakeholder
Research
institutes and
Universities
Large company,
Research inst.,
Universities, joint
venture
Companies,
Brokers,
Financial
resources
Public
finance for
R&D
Public finance
Company invest.
Venture capital
Company
investment,
Bank, stock, bonds
Policy
instruments
Subsidies,
Planning,
awareness
Subsidies,
planning, norms,
permit, standard,
directorate,
Taxation, pricing,
competition
promotion, permit,
norms, …
Some leverage points in China 1
Leverage points of int’l technology
cooperation
• Joint R&D to provide for strategic technology
backup for medium and long-term development,
e.g., CCS, PV, Fusion, etc.
• Joint smart manufacture design and urban
planning for more efficient technology application
• Enlarge penetration of current available lowcarbon technologies in markets by
They may be in all the stages of technology lifecycle:
– Basic scientific researches;
– Joint R&D for demonstration;
– Joint design of manufacture and urban planning
– Dissemination: market tapping, increasing penetration
by transfer, diffusion, and deployment of CSTs; and
– Full application (or even commercialization).
– Overcoming market obstacles related to int’l transfer
and cooperation of CSTs
– Innovative international regime as enabling environment,
including incentives and financial mechanism
Key Energy Intensive Sectors in China
Some leverage points in China 2
•
•
• Infrastructure sectors, such as power,
transport, and construction/building should
be paid an urgent attention.
• Streamlined designs at strategic, policy,
and technological levels are crucial
• Integrating:
Industry used about 71% of the total energy in 2005 and 2006;
and the following 6 sectors account for 72% of the industrial energy
use, more than 50% of the total energy use in China.
��
��
��
��
��
��
– water strategies, policies and investment with
adaptation
– CO2 mitigation with air quality and energy
security
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
Data source: China Statistics
Some important fields in China
Primary technology needs assessment in
China: findings from a pilot study by RUC
• Integrated assessment and design:
– global VS local concerns;
– technologies VS economy;
– transportation VS urban planning
List of some technology needs
• Advanced coal technologies: linking with
desulphurization and NOx reduction and CCS
(IGCC, CFB, breeze)
• High efficient vehicle
• Implementation of building/construction
energy conservation
• Energy intensive manufacture sectors
(metals, cements, chemical products, etc.)
- 117 -
Sectors
Technology
Degree of technology
diffusion in China
Degree of
technology
diffusion
worldwide
Abatement
potential
Cost
information
Industrial
boilers
High-efficient
coal-fired
industrial boilers
Medium (the scale of
boiler manufactures is
mainly small and key
technologies such as
coal combustion devices
and automatic control
devices are lack).
High
5-10%
Estimated
cost for the
retrofit
project is 60
billion Yuan
Cement
industry
NSP cement kiln
technology
package
High ( but technical
level in key technology
fields still lags behind
such as the automatic
control device and the
overall operation level).
High
15%
Estimated
cost for the
retrofit
project is
100 billion
Yuan
Development and Transfer of ESTs: A Pillar of the International Climate Regime post 2012
By Zou Ji
District
cogeneration
combined heat-powercool system based on
gas-steam combined
cycle
Low
Medium
heat-electricity-coal gas
triple co-supply system
Low
High
cogeneration technology
using biomass
Transportatio
n
Building
Emission
reduction
rate is more
than 20%
compared to
regional
heating
boilers
Total cost of
cogeneration will be
lower than the
separate production of
heat and power, but
the corporate profits
will depend on the
pricing mechanism for
heat and electricity
Low
Medium
The technologies for the
more efficient gasoline
and diesel engine
Medium
High
10%-20%
Increase by 10%
The technologies of
diesel engine for cars
and light trucks and the
technologies to produce
high quality diesel
Low
High
20%-30%
Increase by 20%
Light-weight Vehicle
Technology
Low
Middle
5%-10%
Increase by 10%
Homogeneous charge
compression ignition
engine technology
Low
Low
10%-20%
Not clear
Advanced and efficient
transmission system
Low
Middle
10%-30%
Increase by 20%
technologies and
materials of heatinsulation of external
walls
low
20-30%
50-200yuan/m2 higher
than usual
the ground source heat
pump system
medium
40-50%
500 yuan/m
Petroleum oil
industry
Highly efficient heat
exchangers and burners
Low
15-20%
Investment will be
2.25 ~ 3.20 billion
yuan at crude oil
processing capacity of
45Mt
Petrochemical
Industry
Petrochemical
industry
New type energy saving
and separating
technology for ethylene
industry
Low
Approximate
ly 10%
Technical renovation
for a 4.0Mt capacity
project calls for an
investment of 810.0
million yuan
radiant short tubes for
ethylene cracking
furnace use
Medium
5-10%
Technical upgrading
of the existing SRT-II
and SRT-II furnace
calls for an investment
of 580.0 million yuan
production energy
management center
Low
15-20%
Investments in a total
of 10 large- and
medium-sized
companies totaling 2.0
billion yuan
Iron and steel
industry
Building
materials
Technology for Oxyfuel Combustion in
Glass Furnace.
Very few by now
High
20%—30%
Increase by 30%
Petroleum
and chemistry
Technologies for
natural-gas-based
chemical products
(except for methanol
and acetic acid)
Very few by now
High
10%—15%
Increase by 20%
Electric
Motor System
Medium and Large size
frequency modulated
equipment(MLFME)
Around 5% in 2006
High
11mt-C/year,
50TWh/year
in 2010
Direct Current
Permanent Magnet
Brushless Electric
Motor(DCPMBEM)
Green
Lighting
Program
Electric
saving is
around
8.8TWh in
2010
white light conduct LED
Very few by now
300 to 600yuan/kW
higher than normal
electric motor
Electricity
saving is
100TWh,
3.45Mt-C,
NOx
0.5million
ton, SO2
6.75million
ton
32yuan by 2006, and
then 24yuan by 2020
6 hundred million
Iron and steel
low calorific value gas
combustion turbine
technology
low
20%
Cement
the steam turbine units
medium
5-10%
How to measure the
effectiveness of D&D&T?
2
• Speed of technology flow
– Considering to avoid lock-in effects in developing
countries
– Needed time for innovation (R&D) and diffusion
• Range of technology flow
– Covering most of the meaningful sectors
– Larger market share and penetration
• Effectiveness
– Emission reduction
– Affordable and least cost and expected benefits
Source: Zou Ji, et al., 2008
The roles of different stakeholders
in financing D&T&T
Governments mainly from industrialized
country take leadership
Enabling Environment: Promoting
Policies and Innovative Financing
Bank
subsidies
Public finance
tax and levy
D&T&T
subsidies
Consumer or
household
Financing leverage points
based on technology cycle
Research
loans
tax and levy
Financial market:
Stock, bond, etc
venture capital
resources and goods pricing
Firms
Industries
Needs for innovative mechanism as
part of international climate regime
Objectives: Win-win
Develop.
to speed up, widen, and enlarge
international technology cooperation to catch
the historic opportunities, meanwhile ensure
the poor to be better off and the companies
to make profits and boom economies.
Financing
Upgrading or
substitution
subsidies
Fiscal budget
Pilot or
demonstration
Commercializing
- 118 -
Development and Transfer of ESTs: A Pillar of the International Climate Regime post 2012
By Zou Ji
Intergovernmental Mechanism 1
Major Components of the Innovative
Mechanism for International Development
and Transfer of ESTs
• Enhance mechanism within UNFCCC: need a
more effective and implementation-oriented
body to:
• Intergovernmental Cooperation Mechanism
• Special Financial Mechanism for TT
• Mechanism for TT Performance
Assessment and Monitoring
• IPR Protection and Transfer Mechanism
• Mechanism Promoting CSR and Public
Participation
• Platform for Technology Exchange/Trading
– Provide for advices, guidance, and recommendation;
– Coordinate actions by different international
stakeholders and governments, e.g., fiscal policies;
– Guide and supervise utilization of special TT fund
based on public finance;
– Promote communication and info/knowledge sharing;
and
– Monitor and assess the performance and progresses.
• Cooperation on other bilateral and multilateral
bases
Intergovernmental Mechanism 2
Intergovernmental Mechanism 3
Organizational Structure
COP of UNFCCC
With priorities on:
• Policy dialogues and coordination for
better incentives to private sectors and
markets;
• Financing basic research and R&D; and
• Direct transfer and diffusion of publicly
owned technologies.
SBI and SBSTA
Subsidiary Body
on D&D&T
TNA and Information Panel
IPR Coordination Panel
Strategic
Planning
Committee
Enabling Policy Panel
Financial Panel
Capacity Building Panel
Monitoring and Assessment Panel
Intergovernmental Mechanism 4
Special Financial Mechanism for TT
Policy coordination to provide private sectors
with incentives
Tax exemption for CSTs exports of companies in
developed countries;
Subsidies to encourage R&D and transfer of
CSTs;
Favored conditions for CST-related export
credits: guarantee for technology export credits,
subsidies, etc.;
Removal of technology export bans; and
Other policies and measures.
• A PPP framework for financing D&D&T of
technologies may be feasible by linking public
and private finance;
• Significant amount of public finance should play a
leading role in guiding and attracting private
financial resources into D&D&T of technologies
• A special fund based on public finance need to
be established and used to create incentives to
private sectors through various of policy
instruments with impacts on capital market
• A range of financial instruments may be applied
for financing D&D&T.
• Venture capital might be a typical form for private
investment in ESTs
•
•
•
•
•
Back to Major Components of the Mechanism
Developed Countries’
Public Finance
• R&D budget
• Revenue from
energy and envir.
taxes; and
• Revenue from
auction of
carbon credits
Considerations on Different Financial Sources for D&D&T of CSTs
Some developing countries’
Counterpart public finance
Sustainable
Development
financial
sources
Increasing
contribution along
with development
over time
Venture
Capital
Guiding incentives
incl. taxes,
subsidies and
carbon market
Private funds
in capital market
Technology Market
for transfer and
development of
CSTs serving for
mitigation and
adaptation
- 119 -
barriers
for
D&D&T
adequacy
and
performance
assessment
solutions
basic
researches; precompetitive and
in process of
commercialization
political
will
Effectiveness:
scale, speed,
and range
to improve
awareness of
politicians and
the public ,
increase scale
via current
tunnels and
potential new
pipelines.
manufacture
sector: end
user
technologies
pre-competitive
and in process
of
commercializati
on;
commercialized
1.market
force, 2.
technical
capacity,
3.export
permits, 4.
others
1. Guidance
and
incentives;
2.
Effectiveness:
Scale, speed,
and range
1. Guidance
from gov’ts
policies; 2.
enforcement of
laws; 3.
incentives; 4.
breaking
negative market
forces (limit
monopoly)
Infrastructure:
power,
transport,
building, and
relevant
energy
intensive
technologies
�R&D,
Market tapping;
Massive
investment; etc.
market
force
Effectiveness:
scale, speed,
and range.
Initiatives by
governments:
cooperation
between the
North and the
South.
challenges to
address
specific
targets
typical
technologies
stage of
technologies
Public
fiscal budget:
ODA &
additional for CC;
subsidies for
T&T,GEF, Tax
exemption; R&D,
Gov't guarantee
for Export Credit,
venture
investment etc
CB, LDC,
small islands,
adaptation,
R&D, market
tapping,
infrastructure,
etc
1.CB,2. R&D
in strategic
areas, 3.
catalyzer of
T&D, kick-off
market; 4.
prototype/pilot/
demonstration,
5. adaptation, 6.
policy
development
precommercial or
precompetitive
techs in power,
transport,
building
(infrastructure
), adaptation
tech, etc.
Private
FDI incl. CDM,
trade of IPR,
service and
product, and Ccredits; fund and
loans from
commercial
banks, venture
invstment
massive
investment
substantial
GHG reduction
with a win-win
manner
PPP
combination of
public and
private financial
resources: joint
venture,
subsidies,
managing Cmarket, funds, …
attract private
investment in
climate public
goods
guiding
financial flow
into the
targeted areas
Special public fund for technology
transfer and development
policy
instruments
Development and Transfer of ESTs: A Pillar of the International Climate Regime post 2012
By Zou Ji
Key Elements of Indicators for
Performance Assessment 1
Framework for Performance Assessment
• Speed of technology flow
• The frequency and intensity of activities in
technology needs assessment, technology
information, creating enabling environment,
capacity building, and development of
mechanism;
• the scale of investment in R&D,
innovation/demonstration, diffusion and
deployment of ESTs and the contribution
from Annex II parties;
– Considering to avoid lock-in effects in developing
countries
– Needed time for innovation (R&D) and diffusion
• Range of technology flow
– Covering most of the meaningful sectors
– Larger market share and penetration
• Effectiveness
– Emission reduction
– Affordable and least cost and expected benefits
Key Elements of Indicators for Performance
Assessment 2
•
•
•
IPR Protection and Transfer
Mechanism 1
the speed of international flows of
ESTs from developed to developing
countries;
the range of ESTs transfer in
geographical and setoral terms;
the obstacles in development and
transfer of ESTs and the degree to
which these obstacles are obviously
overcome and corresponding
measures and actions are in place.
• Although managing global externality, rather than IPR, is
the real core issue in the context of climate change,
improvement in IPR protection may contribute to faster
and more technology transfer
• IPR protection should not be an excuse to postpone
international development and transfer of ESTs;
• Compulsory licensing and different pricing for public
climate protection may be introduced, as it has been in
public health domain, on a newly developed international
legal basis; and
• Efforts to protect private IPRs should be made together
with the ones to avoid over-making monopoly profits and
to fulfill corporation social responsibility in climate
protection
IPR Protection and Transfer
Mechanism 2
Mechanism Promoting CSR and
Public Participation
• Legislating and enforcing laws and regulations are still
the mainstream measure for IPR protection;
• Improving enforcement capacity and efficiency and
lowering enforcement costs;
• Continuous efforts to improve awareness of companies
and the public on IPR protection;
• Establish awarding fund for encouraging exposure of
information on violence of IPR;
• Development of both governmental and nongovernmental organizations providing for IPR
consultancy service;
• Exploring commercial patterns of joint R&D for sharing
IPR; and
• Support by incentives based on public finance.
• Request companies provide annual report on
implementation of CSR
• Institutional arrangement for exposure of
information on environmental and D&T&T
performance of companies;
• Promote D&T&T by anti-monopoly measures
and re-arrangement of patent protection period
• Promote development of intermediary
organization providing for technological and
legal service
• Make efforts to improve public awareness for an
enabling governance based on wide public
participation
Platform for Technology Exchange
Conclusions
• Develop rules for technology assessment
and trade;
• Improve technology information; and
• Improve infrastructure to support
technology trade
• Establish and operate a Special
Intergovernmental Body for D&D&T of
CSTs under COP of UNFCCC;
• Develop an involvement mechanism for
owners, developers, and potential receivers
of CSTs and policy makers;
• Identify prioritized strategic areas of CSTs
by TNAs;
- 120 -
Development and Transfer of ESTs: A Pillar of the International Climate Regime post 2012
By Zou Ji
Conclusions (Cont’ed, 2)
Conclusions (Cont’ed, 1)
• Select appropriate financial instruments and
pipelines
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
• Develop a special PPP financial system to
combine and bridge:
– public finance (mainly from developed parties)
– Combining markets for carbon permits, CST,
and capital
Share-holding in climate sound projects
Venture capital to invest in R&D of CSTs
Funds
Bonds
Insurance for adaptation
Long-term soft loans
Others
• Initiate series of programs/schemes targeting at
specific technological areas in developing
countries
Thank you for your attention!
[email protected]
or
[email protected]
- 121 -
Climate change policies, European and French energy policies
By Thierry Hommel
How to make Sustainable Low Carbon Society - Synergy of Social and Engineering System Session 1 : Tuesday, June 24, 2008 / 10:10am - 10:55am
Session 3 : Tuesday, June 24, 2008 / 16:20pm - 17:30pm
Speaker and Panelist
Thierry Hommel
Professor
Sciences Po, France
Presentation Data: http://eprints.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/dspace/handle/2115/34489
Climate change policies,
European and French energy policies
ABSTRACT :
Carbon free society is the ultimate goal beyond 2050. Key choices in the next 5 years will shape ability to
meet 2050 goals. From this viewpoint, a sequential approach is needed: goals for 2020 are designed to “keep
in play” the potential to achieve reasonably the 450 ppm goal by 2050. EU credibility is at stake, support
is needed for technological innovation and for avoiding lock-in of current high carbon technologies. The
EU commitment to transform Europe into a highly energy-eﬃcient, low-carbon economy meet a context
of high energy prices and increasing global competition for fossil-based energy resources. In this context,
EU propose a package, which covers Energy Transformation Systems（ETS）and non ETS sectors while
improving energy security. This politics provides predictability and visibility for
investment decisions whether an international agreement is concluded or not.
This creates incentives for other Parties to join in an international agreement on
climate change. Nevertheless, the EU perspective cannot be eﬃcient without the
implication of member states and proactive support of the citizens: the EU has
a legislative power, but states keep prerogatives and sovereignty. If objectives are
settled at EU levels, some instruments will be EU wide, while compliance will
also depend on national policies. According to national circumstances, French
policies will develop speciﬁc instruments to ensure a coordination of innovations,
the implication of all industrial sectors and the support of the civil society.
Overview
Climate change policies,
European and French
energy policies
1. Measuring the action to prevent the risk
2. Current emission dynamics - the french
situation
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
3. French policies and measures aimed at
reducing GHG emissions
4. Long Run scenarios toward Low-carbon society
2
Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales – 27, rue Saint-Guillaume – 75337 Paris Cedex 07 – France – Tél.: 00 33 1 45 49 76 60 –– www.iddri.org
- 122 -
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Climate change policies, European and French energy policies
By Thierry Hommel
Measuring the risks
1. Measuring the action to
prevent the risk
3
4
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Measuring the action to prevent the risk
5
Emissions have to pick between 2015 and 2020
6
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Options for international collective action
7
�
Kyoto logic
� Agreement on quantified targets for nations states
� Markets mechanisms for efficient implementation
�
Bali road map
� Integration of emerging countries
� US vs EU : different visions /necessary coordination
� 4 issues : mitigation, technology, funding, adaptation
�
A possible breakthrough
� US & China : internal implementation needs international coordination
� A very different Post Kyoto : hybrid, more inclusive but less coverage and
fragmented
�
No exclusive options but combination : technological innovation /
coordination framework/ international regulation
� Carbon value = managed scarcity
� Market failures needs accompanying measures ( technological pull/push
capital markets failures for innovation)
8
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Strategic implications for energy
Risks and opportunities
Energy mix transformation
Risks on renewables resources
(hydro, wind, biomass…)
Risks on users conflicts
Advantage to non carbon energy
Vision 2030 : electricity without CO2?
What reducing emissions in
developed countries by 80 %
in 2050 means ?
Revolution in demand
Climate impacts
New demand profile (hotter winter and summers)
Buildings : less energy demand but advantage to
electricity
Urban mobility: more electricity in individual and
collective transport
New business model
More expansive and scarce energy with higher added value
More decentralized energy
Energy services and integrated management of buildings
9
Network Climate
vulnerability
10
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
- 123 -
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Mitigation
policies
Climate change policies, European and French energy policies
By Thierry Hommel
Current emission dynamics - the French situation (1)
� Kyoto Protocol - First commitment period : France committed
to a 0% increase of it GHG emissions compared to 1990
� EU : 8% emissions reduction target at the global level
� EU-countries : agreed on differentiated commitments depending on
national circumstances within the so-called European « bubble »
2. Current emission dynamics –
The French situation
11
� 2005 : French GHG emissions equal to 553,4 Mt CO2-eq
(Eurostat)
� 8,73 t CO2-eq per capita (lower than EU 15 mean value – 10.82 t
CO2-eq per capita)
� Main reason : low carbon content of power generation : 80% nuclear,
12% hydro)
� French emissions were 1,9% (i.e 11 MtC02-eq) under the objective
12
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Current emission dynamics - the French situation (2)
� C02, 1990-95 :
Current emission dynamics - the French situation (3)
� CH4 and N2O emissions have decreased respectively
by 12 Mt CO2-eq (-18%) and 22,6 Mt CO2-eq (-24%)
19,8 Mt +5%
� Industry alone : responsible for a 17,4 Mt C02-eq reduction
of N20
� Increase :
� Transportation
� Residential and tertiary energy use
21,3 Mt + 18%
9,2 Mt + 11%
� F-gases have increased by 4,1 Mt C02-eq (+40%),
because of their increasing use in cooling equipments;
their contribution to national global emission remains
low (2,5%)
� Significant reduction achieved in :
� Industry
� Energy supply
� Agriculture
� Waste management
13
5,3
3,5
1,2
0,7
Mt
Mt
Mt
Mt
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
- 5,3%
- 5%
- 12%
- 28%
� Sectors pushing global emissions upwards are well
identified : Transportation and Energy use in domestic
building!
14
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Current emission dynamics - the French situation (4)
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Current emission dynamics - the French situation (5)
Energy use in buildings :
Transportation :
� Domestic air transport has been stabilized thanks to the
development of the high speed train network
� Dwellings has increased by 15% since 1990, as the occupancy
rate declined from 2,6 to 2,3 inhabitants per dwelling
� Main concern is about the road transportation :
� Mean surface of housing increased from 85 to 90 square meters
� Number of cars and the number of passenger-kilometers increased
by 25% since 1990
Parallel trends in residential and passenger road transports can be
explained by the evolution of prices : building price index
increase and domestic fuel price decrease during this period !
� Road freight increased by 15% since 1990, now accounting for 80%
of total domestic freight, including international transit
� Rail freight remains inefficient and decreased by 14% since 1990
15
16
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Current emission dynamics - the French situation (6)
Current emission dynamics - the French situation (7)
� Drivers that could hamper futures efforts to reduce French
emissions or even stabilize them at their 1990 level during the
next five years: inertia of Transportation and Residential
� 1990 - 2004 : Carbon intensity of the French GDP decreased by
17% (annual decrease of 1,4%)
� 80% improvement in energy efficiency
� 14% improvement from energy substitution : energy mix partially
shifted to electricity and natural gas instead of oil
� The largest mitigation potential could be achieved in the
building sector with existing technologies and significant
benefits that would result from higher energy efficiency allow
for a low unitary cost of reduction
� 2004 - 2014 : Emissions reduction for non-C02 gases in the
industry are likely to slow downs in absolute terms : Most of the
cheap reductions have already been done, partly for non climate
reasons
� Mitigation in transportation is usually assessed as expensive
and difficult : it does not require only technological change but
also investment reallocation to low emissions modes,
infrastructure management and urban planning
� 2004 - 2012 : C02 emissions from transportation and residential
energy uses are expected to keep increasing significantly
17
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
18
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
- 124 -
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Climate change policies, European and French energy policies
By Thierry Hommel
Reducing GHG Emissions : French policies and measures (1)
� France, 2004 : To be in observance with its Kyoto targets, adoption of the
« climate plan »
� Reinforced in comparison to the previous « National Program
against Climate change » set in 2000…
3. Reducing GHG Emissions :
� Because this Program was assessed to be insufficient…
� Significant gap between measures early announced in the program
and what has been really implemented
French policies and measures
� Emblematic countermeasure : the withdrawal of an energy tax that was
supposed to induce 40% of the emission reduction target
� Other measures or sector target were also unrealistic : doubling of the
railway freight…
� Less than 10 % of the measures initially contained in the plan have been
now implemented
19
20
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Reducing GHG Emissions : French policies and measures (2)
Reducing GHG Emissions : French policies and measures (3)
� Without Climate plan : business-as-usual emissions are
projected to increase to 620 Mt C02-eq in 2020, i.e 10% above
the French target
� Step forward, French parliament - 2005 : a new law on the
energy strategy is adopted
� Sets national targets as a 3% year reduction of GHG emissions
� Division by 4 or 5 of national emissions in 2050
� Enumerates existing policies and measures as those included in the
2004 Climate Plan
� Confirm the role of nuclear power as the major options to avoid GHG
emissions in the French electric sector and to contribute to national
energy security
� Sets that public investments on collective transports, railways and
waterways are going to be the priority over road infrastructure.
� The « climate plan » provide additional measures and policies
intended to curb emissions under this target :
5,75% biofuel target in 2010
Larger tax credit for thermal renovation in buildings
Generalization of energy labels on energy end-use equipments
New taxes and subsidies on new cars in function of their emissions
Control of emissions due to the development of air cooling in
buildings and vehicles
� Possibility for local authorities to commit themselves in the
elaboration of local climates plans
�
�
�
�
�
21
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
22
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Reducing GHG Emissions : French policies and measures (4)
Reducing GHG Emissions : French policies and measures (5)
� 2005 : France is included in the new European Trading Scheme,
involving :
� 2007 : « Domestic project », Joint Implementation mechanism
from the French Government
� Electric sector
� Energy intensive industries
� The biggest heat producers
� Government will periodically announce a call for emission reduction
projects for sectors not covered by EU ETS (Emission trading
system) and for non C02-GHG
� First three-year period is overlocated, but this new instrument
has led major corporate players involved to get used to
continuously monitor their emissions and to trade quotas, and
raised new expertise to supply assistance and advice on the
carbon market
� Company or communities may propose reduction projects and prove
their additionality. For each approved project, a French agency
entitled to manage financial transactions, real estate and carbon
trading for the government, will buy all the corresponding credits, and
manage subsequent exchanges on the international carbon market.
� A new National Allocation Plan was recently published for the
Kyoto commitment period 2008-2012
23
� This policy tool is expected to foster reductions from 10 to 15 MtC02eq over 5 years, i.e. around 0,5% of current French emissions
24
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Reducing GHG Emissions : French policies and measures (6)
Reducing GHG Emissions : French policies and measures (7)
� 2007: Presidential election in France
� 2007, The « Grenelle of Environment », launched by President on
the 21st of may 2007
� During the campaign, candidates had to face with strong claims for
urgent and aggressive environmental policies, which led to inflation in
their promises
� Six working groups, including one on climate change and energy
management
� First outcome of this pressure: integration of the ministry of
environment and the ministry of transport, territorial planning and
development to a single ministry in charge of sustainable
developments policies
� All the groups included 40/50 persons, from :
�
�
�
�
�
� Second outcome : President Sarkozy promised to open broad
negotiations about a new round of environmental policies to respond to
ecological emergencies. This was named « Grenelle of Environment »,
in reference to the Grenelle Agreements, a successful negotiation
between labour unions and employers in 1968 ;
25
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
26
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
- 125 -
NGOs,
administrations,
labor unions,
employer federations, and
local authorities
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Climate change policies, European and French energy policies
By Thierry Hommel
How to reach a “Factor 4”?
Reducing GHG Emissions : French policies and measures (7)
Forbidden
� 2007, Grenelle of Environment process – The case of
the,working group on climate change and energy
management
� Summer Objective : define a path to reach a factor 4 in
2050
� September, the group produced a synthesis of all the
propositions that were consensual to the group and which
constituted the basis of the final 2 days of negotiation with
all minister concerned (agriculture, housing…)
Fossil energy power without
cogeneration
�
No Nuclear, no sequestration
� Portfolio of advanced
technologies CCS
�
Transports = fossil energy
� Renovation of old buildings
�
Heating = fossil and
inefficient buildings
� Recycling of raw materials
�
Massive use of fossils in
industry
� Structural change for
transport
�
Wait for energy efficiency
� Change in behaviors
�
Wait and See strategies
� Coal to Gas
28
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Two main errors:
� Grenelle of Environment, climate change and energy group
outcomes :
� October : Short phase of diffusion and consultation of experts ad various
national council and citizens
� Renovation plan for existing building, aimed at reducing energy
consumption by 12% (resp 20%) in tertiary (resp residential) building in
5 years
� For new building, a breakthrough toward 30% zero energy buildings in
5 years and 100% in 2020
� An increase the share of rail and water freight from 14% to 25% of
the total domestic freight in 15 years
� No new road infrastructures, exept projects already in the pipe, and
systematic priority of investment in railways and waterways
� Progressively decreasing standards for a new cars, e.g 120g of
C02/km in 2012 (EU decision)
� A general fiscal reform in favour of ecotaxes with a constant budget
recycling
� Increase the share of renewables in final energy from 9% to 20% in
2012 (EU decision)
Everything changes : Technological fix up? For the next 30 years we can
anticipate
Nothing changes : Technological innovations in a changing world innovations.
�
Limits on emissions will change context
On one hand : more electricity means a more concentrated production for mass
technology (nuclear or coal or gas plus sequestration)
On the other hand : more renewables + hydrogen more decentralized production
New electricity economy more complex : energy mix and network management
Different technology different behaviors
�
�
�
�
29
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Reducing GHG Emissions : French policies and measures (8)
Factor 4 : Technological Innovations and social change
�
� Development of renewables
� Lock in and path dependency
in buildings and transport
infrastructures
� End of October : Outcome
27
Incontrovertibles
� Energy efficiency
�
30
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Reducing GHG Emissions : French policies and measures (9)
� Grenelle of Environment : new expectations of the civil
society:
� A lot of observers and even some NGOs that had attended to the
« grenelle agreement » were surprised by an apparent higher level
of political will from policymakers
4.Long run scenarios toward
low-carbon society, French target
� This process has raised large expectations from the parties involved
and the wider society
� It is now in the hands of central administration (for operational
implementation) and the parliament (for new law projects), two steps
that are like to modify the content and the ambition of final measures!
31
32
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Long run scenarios toward low-carbon society, French target (2)
Long run scenarios toward low-carbon society, French target (1)
� Long Run : the target for 2050 may seem identically
approximate
� French target : reach a division by 4 in 2050, included as a
national objective in the French energy law in 2005 but …
� Very vague in its formulation, for example about the reference level
� March 2007 : the so called « 3 X 20 » target, Council of Europe :
� Starting point : the + 2�C temperature ceiling (compared to
the mean pre-industrial level) adopted by the European Union
� a voluntary commitment to reduce emissions by 20% in 2020 compared
to the 1990 level
� With 20% renewables in the primary energy mix
� 20% energy efficiency
� This maximum temperature increase is consistent with a
stabilization of GHG concentration around 450ppm C02-eq,
which requires cutting emissions at least by 50% in 2050
compared to emission in 2000 (IPCC, 2007)
� …the same objectives were adopted in the ‘Grenelle agreement’
final report
� There are still many things blurred about a precise definition of the
targets in 2020 and 2050. As for 2020, the 20% reduction is indeed a
global European target
� Factor 4 has been flagged for its simplicity, as a mobilizing
utopia.Such a long run target does not pretend to be a precise
commitment : it is supposed to help stabilizing expectations
about the shared ambition of stabilizing GES concentration
� But will this global commitment be translate in differentiated
commitments depending on national circumstances ?
33
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
34
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
- 126 -
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Climate change policies, European and French energy policies
By Thierry Hommel
Long run scenarios toward low-carbon society, French target (3)
Long run scenarios toward low-carbon society, French target (4)
� To date, no macroeconomic simulations have been done on the
feasibility and the cost of a ‘factor 4’ scenario in France because
of the lack of ready to use energy-economy model in France
� All those reports do not provide a clear picture of what is the more
efficient trajectory to divide French emissions by 3 , 4 or 5.
But they bring some robust findings :
� MIES uses a mee energy accounting approach to build 8
alternatives systems that could satisfy the factor 4 target in 2050
� A huge renovation plan must be achieved in all type of building
� The transportation sector will need both large infrastructure reorientation and
technological innovation to reduce emissions for identical mobility services
� OE-DGEMP describes a world scenario built from the MEDEE
energy demand model
� In scenarios that maintain a strong nuclear generation capacity, a strong
development of renewables including biomass is needed to cover the final
energy demand.
� Scenario based on a global 450 ppm C02 target, with a division by 4
of OECD emissions (division by 3 for France)
� It concludes that the target is feasible with existing or upcoming
technologies !
� The simulation shows a carbon price above 500 euros per ton of
C02 even with all optimistic assumptions
35
� Alternatively, a phasing out of the nuclear capacity imposes that a
significant share of primary energy needs would be covered by fossil energy,
thus requiring a massive and early development of Carbon Capture and
storage in industry and in the electric sector.
36
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Thank you for your attention!
Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales – 27, rue Saint-Guillaume – 75337 Paris Cedex 07 – France – Tél.: 00 33 1 45 49 76 60 –– www.iddri.org
- 127 -
Thierry Hommel – June 2008
Environmental Governance and Economics for Sustainable Low Carbon Society in East Asia
By Kazuhiro Ueta
How to make Sustainable Low Carbon Society - Synergy of Social and Engineering System Session 1 : Tuesday, June 24, 2008 / 11:20am – 12:05pm
Speaker and Panelist
Kazuhiro Ueta
Professor
Graduate School of Economics and Graduate School of Global
Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Japan
Presentation Data: http://eprints.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/dspace/handle/2115/34485
Environmental Governance and Economics for Sustainable Low
Carbon Society in East Asia
ABSTRACT :
It will not be possible to arrest climate change without qualitative change in economies.
We must tackle the prevention of climate change not as a defensive reaction but as a form of “environmental
economic strategy.” When we frame the issue in this way, we should be able to see the way forward to
the achievement of our goals. Among the environmental policy tools available are an emissions-trading
system and a carbon tax (environment tax). Arranged in some suitable combination, such tools can
serve usefully in tapping the creativity of businesses and communities and providing clear signals of the
direction in which to proceed.
Outline of Presentation
��
��
��
• Sustainable Development/Low
Carbon Society
• Environmental Kuznets Curve
• Japanese experiences
• Regional cooperative approach/
Environmental governance for SD
Hokkaido University
�� 23-24, 2008
Kazuhiro Ueta, Kyoto University
[email protected]
- 128 -
Environmental Governance and Economics for Sustainable Low Carbon Society in East Asia
By Kazuhiro Ueta
Sustainable Development��
��
•
•
•
•
•
Economic Interpretation/definition of SD
Dasgupta(2001, 2007)---Social Well-being/QOL
Constituents and Determinants of QOL
Productive Base��Criteria for SD
Wealth��Capital Assets� Man-made Capital,
Human Capital, Natural Capital and Knowledge)
• Critical Natural Capital
• Inclusive Wealth and Institutions
• Most common definition of Sustainable
Development: “Development that meets the
needs of the present without compromising
the ability of future generations to meet their
own needs."��Our Common Future, 1987�
• Development with ecological/environmental
sustainability� economic and social
sustainability
Can we overcome the trade-off
between environmental
conservation and economic
development
Low Carbon Society
• Low carbon society is necessary to protect climate
which is critical natural capital
• Low carbon society can be realized through
ambitious reduction target and climate policy�in
developed country
• Low carbon society is a necessary condition for
sustainable development/society, but not enough
• Global�developed countries’ and developing
countries’) low carbon society
•
•
•
•
•
•
Conventional wisdom��trade-off
Internalizaton of external diseconomy
Decoupling strategy
Dematerialization
Factor4/Factor10�Porter hypothesis
Environmental fiscal reform/double dividend
Critiques to the E Kuznets Curve
• Econometric method to the EKC
• Range of environmental pollution and
pollutants that EKC can explain
• Explanatory power of the factors
environmental movement
N-shaped curve
• Earth’s resource base vs. indefinite
economic growth(Arrow et al., 1995)
- 129 -
Environmental Governance and Economics for Sustainable Low Carbon Society in East Asia
By Kazuhiro Ueta
A Brief History on Kogai
� Minamata mercury poisoning/disease(1956)
� Irreversibility/Anti-pollution movement
� Kogai litigation/court case
� Local initiative
pollution control agreement(1964)
environmental ordinance(1968)
� Pollution Diet(1970), Environmental
Agency(1971)
� Victims of pollution-related health damage
Seriousness and Features of
Env. Disruption in East Asia
Lessons and Implications
�Irreversibility/Paradigm shift---Pollution Diet(1970)
��
�Comprehensive environmental policy��clear
signal for market, organization and individuals
�Stringent target + regulation(ppp) + integrated
policy (environmental and industrial policy)
�Environmental regulation, pricing (policy) and
technological innovation
�Capacity development---learning capacity/
creativity of people and organization�institutions
• Rapid industrialization and high
economic growth(catch-up style of
economic development)
• Pre-welfare state��public health issue
• Local, regional, and global env. issues
• Region as victim/polluter
• Economic and ecological
interdependence
- 130 -
Environmental Governance and Economics for Sustainable Low Carbon Society in East Asia
By Kazuhiro Ueta
Causes of pollution in China
Environmental Governance in East Asia
Energy (coal)/Industrial structure(heavy)
Enforcement capacity of environmental policy
Lack of environmental infrastructure
Economic system(catch-up and transition)��
domestic and global
• Government/Judicial/Political system
• Societal environmental consciousness��
education/learning capacity
• A comparison of environmental governance
between current China and Japan in late
1960s/1970s
• Top-down environmental policy----advantages
and disadvantages
• Environmental policy in the relationship of
central government and local government
• Behavior of local government
•
•
•
•
��
��
Marginal Abatement Cost Curves
in Japan and China
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
�
�
��
��
��
��
��
Nakata and Ueta (2003) “Sulfur Emissions Control in China,” mimeo.
2008�9�10�
� Ueta & Bros. Co.
24
Regional Cooperative Approach
• Ecological interdependence with economic��
• MAC of CO2/SO2 in China and Japan
• Local pollution and environmental/health
damage in China
• Domestic and regional optima
• Co-benefits (Ancillary benefits)
• Clean Development Mechanism
- 131 -
Environmental Governance and Economics for Sustainable Low Carbon Society in East Asia
By Kazuhiro Ueta
Conclusion(1)
Conclusion(2)
• Network/communication of local initiative
• Multi-level environmental governance for
sustainable development
• Regional economic/environmental
community---collaboration for common
base of scientific knowledge---Regional IPCC
• Contribution of intellectual network
• Institutions/governance for
sustainable development
• Institutions for creating knowledge,
innovation /diffusion/transfer
system(IPR)of technology
• Global democracy/equity/fair market
• Crucial role of central government
- 132 -
Water, Sustainable Development, and Climate Change
By Taikan Oki
How to make Sustainable Low Carbon Society - Synergy of Social and Engineering System Session 2 : Tuesday, June 24, 2008 / 14:00pm – 14:45pm
Speaker and Panelist
Taikan Oki
Professor
Institute of Industrial Science,
the University of Tokyo, Japan
Presentation Data: http://eprints.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/dspace/handle/2115/34487
Water, Sustainable Development, and Climate Change
ABSTRACT :
Water is a naturally circulating resource that is constantly recharged. Therefore, even though the stocks
of water in natural and artiﬁcial reservoirs are helpful to increase the available water resources for human
society, the ﬂow of water should be the main focus in water resources assessments. The climate system puts
an upper limit on the circulation rate of available renewable freshwater resources (RFWR).
Although current global withdrawals are well below the upper limit, more than two billion people live
in highly water-stressed areas because of the uneven distribution of RFWR
in time and space. Climate change is expected to accelerate water cycles and
thereby increase the available RFWR globally. This would slow down the
increase of people living under water stress; however, changes in seasonal
patterns, enhancement of uneven distribution of regional RFWR, and
increasing probability of extreme events may oﬀset this eﬀect. Implementing
adaptation measures and reducing current vulnerability will be the ﬁrst step
to prepare for such anticipated changes.
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
1
Water, Sustainable Development,
and Climate Change
Taikan Oki
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo
Challenges in Water System as a Fundamental System of Sustainable
Human Society, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, June 24th, 2008
- 133 -
2
Water, Sustainable Development, and Climate Change
By Taikan Oki
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
3
World Water
Issues
4
Future Projection
through the 21st Century
� Indispensable water for lives
� One in five of the world population does not have access to safe
and affordable drinking water (20L/d/c within 1km).
Changes considered include:
�Water demand for domestic,
industrial, and irrigation sectors.
� Each year 3-4 million people die because of waterborne diseases
� Profitable water for agriculture and industry
� Total withdrawals 3,800km3(1995)�4,300-5,200km3(2025)
� Population (SRES)
� Comfortable water for human being and ecosystems
� Climate Change and Urbanization �water hazard risks
� International conflicts because of water issues?
� Urban and rural areas separated
� GDP (SRES)
� Improvement of reuse (SRES)
�Climate change (SRES)
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
“irrigated land,
which is 16%
of cropland,
produces 40%
of crops”
8
GDP and Domestic Water Use
GDP/capita and domestic
water use
� � � � � � � � ��
Q
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Assumptions�
1
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http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
7
��
��Supply
��and
��Production
World�Food
2
��
��
�
��
��
��
��
��
��
G
Q : Domestic Water Use [m3 / capita/year ]
G : GDP per person [US$ equivalent of year 1990]
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
9
GDP and Industrial Withdrawals
��
(part of the left figure)
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
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Japan is an exception with high water use efficiency.
(2055-2000)
A1b
Future Projection
Future IW�Current IW �GDP Growth for Industry
�Improvement of water use efficiency
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
10
Total Water Withdrawal (106m3/y)
in 2050 (difference to Year 2000)
Total water withdrawal and GDP for industry in each country are proportional.
��
� Future Domestic Water Use=
Future Estimate +D
where D is the bias error,
D=Statistics in 1900 –
Estimate for 1990
* Future GDP under SRES scenario was downscaled from GDP projection in 4
region in the world into each country by CIESIN.
(based on FAOSTAT & AQUASTAT)
��
Domestic water use in
developing countries will
increase associated with the
increase of GDP.
Life style in domestic water use
is calibrated by simple manner
for countries with statistics of the
current domestic water use.
log(Q) =
-5000 -200
-50
-5
5
50
200 1000 5000
(Shen, et. al, 2008, HSJ)
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
11
12
Impacts of climate change on freshwater fesources
� In the course of the century, water supplies stored in glaciers
and snow cover are projected to decline, reducing water
availability in regions supplied by melt water from major
mountain ranges, where more than one-sixth of the world
population currently lives.
� By mid-century, annual average river runoff and water
availability are projected to increase by 10-40% at high
latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease by 10-30%
over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics,
some of which are presently water-stressed areas.
� Drought-affected areas will likely increase in extent. Heavy
precipitation events, which are very likely to increase in
frequency, will augment flood risk.
�IPCC AR4, WGII, SPM, 2007�
�Lead Authors for the 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC, WG II, Chapter 3 “Freshwater resources and their management”�
- 134 -
Water, Sustainable Development, and Climate Change
By Taikan Oki
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
13
Number of people under
serious water stress
14
Change in water stress index for 2050 (ratio)
Rws in 2055 (A2)
2055/2000
A1b
Awc= Q/C
< 0.5
0.5 - 0.9
0.9 - 1.5
1.5 - 2.0
2.0 - 3.0
3.0 - 4.0
4.0 - 5.0
> 5.0
Rws= (W-S)/Q
(m3/y/c)
Q: How can we realize B1 society?
B1
MultiGCM/GSWP2
(Oki and Kanae, Science, 2006)
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
A2
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
15
��
16
��1.2��
��A1B��
��
�2080-2099��
��
�1979-1998��
��
Extreme Events?
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
1��
��
��3�
��
�
(CCSR/NIES K-1 ��)
�
1.2%(0.1)
��
��
��
��
��
��
(Billion people)
�
69.2%
(5.6)
�
��
��
��
�
��
��
�
��
��
�
��
��
1.05�1.10
�
��
��
1.00�1.05
�
��
��
�
�
�
�
�
��
1.20�1.25
�
1.15�1.20
�
1.10�1.15
��
��
18
Decrease Drought
Increase Drought
Flood Increase
20.2%
(1.7)
��
27.3%(1.1)
25.1%
(1.8)
��
��
��
��
20
� Mitigation
� Reduce the emission of green house gases (GHGs) and
slow down the speed of the climate change.
� Most of the measures are also good for reducing the
energy consumption and saving the fossil energy.
��
23.1%
(1.6)
11.3%(0.8)
Flood Decrease
Counter Measure against CC
��
31.9%
(2.2)
�
��
��
�
�
�
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
24.4%(2.1)
�
�
MIROC-Hi, A1B
13.1%(1.1)
�
�
�
Hirabayashi et al., (HSJ, 2008)
Based on CCSR-NIES AOGCM
19
11.5%(0.9)
10.3%(0.8)
��
Frequency in the
21st century of 100year flood
in the 20th century
Number of people under more frequent floods
�
��
��
End of 21st century
compared with 20th century
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
�
��
�
Change in Flood
Frequency
��
��
��
�
��
��
��
��
��
��
Drought: daily river
discharge is below
threshold of 10%
percentile
��
��
��
��
��
��
�
End of 21st century
compared with 20th century
��
��
�
ydro.iis.u-tok
http://hin
Change
Droughtyo.ac.jp/
Frequency
17
��
��
�
�
��
� Adaptation
��
� Enhance the resilience of the society and reduce the
disaster which is anticipated due to the climate change.
� Most of the adaptation measures are also good for solving
the existing social issues: poverty, vulnerabilities for
natural disaster, food and agriculture, health, ecosystem,
…
return period of
100-year flood
(Hirabayashi et al. 2008, HSJ)
- 135 -
Water, Sustainable Development, and Climate Change
By Taikan Oki
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
21
22
Naha, Okinawa, Japan
40,000m3/day
Adaptation Options
�Supply-side
�Prospecting and extraction of groundwater
�Increasing storage capacity by building
reservoirs and dams
�Desalination of sea water
�Expansion of rain-water storage
�Removal of invasive non-native vegetation
from riparian areas
�Water transfer
(IPCC AR4, WGII Ch3, 2007)
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
23
Unit Requirement of Water
--Crops-(m /t)
Adaptation Options
�Demand-side
3
� Reduction in water demand for irrigation by changing the
cropping calendar, crop mix, irrigation method, and area
planted
� Promotion of indigenous practices for sustainable water use
� Expanded use of water markets to reallocate water to highly
valued uses
� ��
��
Pork
5,900
Whole
��
Pork
Poultry
��
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
(m3/t)
78.5
��
North
America
Western
Europe
38.8North West
Africa
Central Caribbean
America
36.4
4,500
560
3,200
Egg� �
26
“Virtually Required Water” Trade between Regions
associated with food trade in 2000 (cereals only)
14,400
m3/t
� � � � � � � ��
(Oki, et. al, 2002, IHE-UNESCO)
25
3,000
� ��
Unit Water Requirement of Major Crops
4,100
Whole
��
Poultry
� � ��
(based on crop yield in Japan�FAOSTAT mean 1996-2000)
20,600
Whole
��
Beef
� ��
� ��
(IPCC AR4, WGII Ch3, 2007)
��
Beef
2,000 1,900
� ��
�
� Reduction in water demand for irrigation by importing
agricultural products, i.e., virtual water
�
2,600 2,500
� ��
� Expanded use of economic incentives including metering
and pricing to encourage water conservation
Unit Water Requirement
��
��Meat
��
��
��
3,600
� ��
� � � ��
� ��
� Improvement of water-use efficiency by recycling water
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
24
57.5
West
Africa
South
America
USSR
33.5Middle
East
East &
South East Asia
South
Asia
46.2
for milk
Oceania
Importer based, over 5 km3/y
Unit Water Requirement of Major Meat
1~5
(based on crop yield and the way of raising in Japan)
(Oki, et. al, 2002, IHE-UNESCO)
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
5~10
10~15
15~20
20~30
30~50
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
27
Virtual Water Balance in Countries (m3/c/y) in 2000
50<
km3/y
(Based on Statistics from FAO etc., for 2000)
(Oki, et. al, 2004)
28
Conventional Water Resources Assessment
Potentially Available Water Resources per Capita in 2000�
Major crops
and meat
Country
base
Blue: Exporting
Red: Importing
(Oki, et. al, 2004)
Exporting
Importing
GSWP2 ensemble runoff, SRES A1/B1 population
•7 out of top 10 importing countries are seriously poor in water resources.
•7 out of top 10 exporting countries are rich in water resources.
Seriously Stressed (~1)
Stressed (1~2)
•Denmark (10) and India (18) are water stressed but exporting RW in net.
Moderate (5~10)
Rich (10~)
- 136 -
Slightly Stressed
(2~5)
103 m3/capita/
/capita/year
Water, Sustainable Development, and Climate Change
By Taikan Oki
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
29
World Water Resources Considering Virtual Water Trade
Potentially Available Water Resources per Capita in 2000�
Country
base
+VW
GSWP2 ensemble runoff, SRES A1/B1 population
Seriously Stressed (~1)
Stressed (1~2)
Moderate (5~10)
Rich (10~)
Slightly Stressed
(2~5)
103 m3/capita/
/capita/year
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
30
Water Resources Assesment Considering VW trade
22 Countries were classified into “seriously stressed” in 2000 by
conventional water resources assessment.
��
��
� +Virtual Water Import
�
�
VW Balance
�
��
��
��
��
Rich Countries are
�
� � by VW import
saved
�
�
�
Poor
Countries
remain
Water Poor
�
Seriously Stressed
� � � � � � � ��
� � � � � � � ��
��
��
��
��
� � � ��
��
Egypt:141m3/c/y
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
(Oki and Kanae, Science, 2006)
When you drink water,
think its origin.
��
(Oki, et. al, 2004)
32
“LAND”
Water
virtual
water
trade
desalination
hydropower
�Mitigation is also good for sustainable energy
usage, and adaptation is also good for reducing
of current vulnerabilities against hazards.
��
� � � � � � � ��
��
��
� Water should not be dealt alone separated
from food and energy. �Limited Resources =
�The ultimate objectives of future-oriented world
water resource assessments are to show the
international community what will happen if we
continue to manage our water resources as we do
today and to indicate what actions may be needed
to prevent undesirable outcomes. In that sense,
studies of future world water resources are
successful if their predictions based on business-asusual are proven wrong.
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
� � � � ��
Support developing
sustainability in a society
Messages
�Scenario Projection:
Oman: 512m3/c/y
Bahrain:313m3/c/y
�
��
� � � � ��
http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/
31
��
��
�
��
�
�
�
��
��
�
Stressed
Burundi: 31m3/c/y
�
Rwanda:53m3/c/y
��
UAE:4,490m3/c/y
Slightly
Stressed
�
��
Energy
33
��
When you eat,
think about water.
Thank You!!
- 137 -
bio-fuel
cultivation
irrigation
Food
Wise use of Water
By Yasumoto Magara
How to make Sustainable Low Carbon Society - Synergy of Social and Engineering System Session 2 : Tuesday, June 24, 2008 / 14:55pm - 15:40pm
Session 3 : Tuesday, June 24, 2008 / 16:20pm - 17:30pm
Speaker and Panelist
Yasumoto Magara
Professor
Research Center for Environmental Nano and Bio Engineering,
Hokkaido University, Japan
Presentation Data: http://eprints.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/dspace/handle/2115/34492
Wise use of Water
ABSTRACT :
Water is used for various kinds of purposes: in daily life, agriculture, industry, and ﬁshery. Water is
supplied from the ocean to the atmosphere through evaporation and comes back to the ground surface
as rainfall. It supports various kinds of human activities as well as nature and the global ecosystem.
While water ﬂows over the ground surface and becomes available as a resource in rivers, lakes/marshes,
underground water, and coastal water, it contains inorganic substances from the soil, and organic substances
and microorganisms generated by living organisms and human activities.
Impurities which exist in water include not only essential substances necessary for supporting the life of
living creatures, such as nitrogen, phosphorus and iron, but also hazardous substances, such as arsenic and
mercury, which are not just unnecessary for living creatures, but also cause health problems. Water also
contains parasites, infectious microorganisms, and chemical substances such as agricultural chemicals,
which may cause health problems to humans or other living creatures. It can also contain other substances
which do not cause any hazard to humans or living creatures, but disturbs proper use of water, such as silt
and sand which make water turbid. It is therefore necessary to consider the wise use of water according
to the purpose of consumption.
Natural & manmade water cycle
Wise use of Water
RA I N
LAND
I NPU T C ONT ROL SYSTE M
ST OR AGE
ENERGY
AG RI CUL T URAL
US E
TR ANS PORTATION
FR ESH W A T E R
SLUDGE
COMMUNI T Y
SLUDGE
RI VE R & LAK E
POLLUTANTS
ENERGY
Magara, Yasumoto
Appointed Researcher, Public Policies Research Center.
Environmental Bio & Nano Engineering Research�Center
Hokkaido University
OUTPU T C ONTRO L SY STE M
SLUDGE
TR EAT E D W ASTEW AT ER
OCEAN
DEPOSIT
150 X1012m3 of fresh water resource/ a week
- 138 -
Wise use of Water
By Yasumoto Magara
Surface fresh water is safe or not ?
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
•Rainwater captures pollutants during precipitation ,
flowing processes on ground surface.
•Groundwater is the most appropriate for water source,
since the pollutants are reduced by the soil, unless
some hazardous substances exist in the soil and
elude into the water.
•Most of the freshwater resources cannot be used
without treatment, or much worse,
•Most of them may even cause various health
damages including infectious diseases.
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
� � � � � � ��
� � � � ��POPULATION
��
WORLD
��
��
��
��
Demand of irrigation water
��
��
��
Irrigated Area
Population
Cultivated Area
1975
2015
2000
We must share 150 X1012m3 of fresh water
resource/ a week
Areal Distribution of water resource
utilization
��
How much water resource ?
��
��
� ��
��
� ��
� ��
��
��
� ��
��
��
��
� ��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
�� Kantoh ��
��
��
��
��
��
� ��
Water resource in China
(m3/CpY)
China is going to
• Allocate water resource at ��
��
��
��
��
��
��
�
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
–
–
–
–
Agricultural 52%
Industrials ��
Domestic��
Ecological ��
• Development of water and waste-water
facilities are national project
• But the level of performance should superior
than global standard of conventional
treatment facilities
Water resource of Japan is about�� m3/CpY
- 139 -
Wise use of Water
By Yasumoto Magara
��
��
• Epidemiology &
Environmental engineering
• Cholera was transmitted
from Asia with trading
actvities
��
��
��
��
��
��
1855
Statistical verification
• Cholera and water
treatment
��
��
� � ��
Regional differences of death of cause
��
1960
6000
Case of polio etc./year
Europe
80�
America
60�
E.Medit.
Africa
40�
W.Pacific
20�
S.E.Asia
0�
33�
Infectious
parasite
5�
6�
Mal-delivery. Accidents
Suicide
8�
26�
Circulatory Cancer
100000
Shigellosis
5000
80000
4000
3000
2000
Paratyphoid
1000
Typhoid
0
60000
Poliomyelitis
1960
40000
Case of Shigellosis/year
100�
20000
1965
Year
0
1975
1970
Reducing Exposure
��
The F-Diagram
Population ( 1000)
120000
Total population
100000
80000
sanitary treatment
� 75%
60000
40000
public sewerage system
1930
1950
1970
Year
1990
Water Quality
Food
Feces
Flies
public water supply
1910
Fluids
Fields
Unsanitary treatment
20000
0
Sanitation &
hygiene
2010
Fingers
Water Quantity
Hand Washing
with soap
Sanitation
Intestinal worms
• Toilet should be facilitated to prevent the entry of
hygienic insects and animals that carry the
pathogens in the excreta, and it act as a barrier
to release of parasitic worms or their eggs in the
excreta into the surrounding environment.
However, the role of toilets is lost unless the
excreta are eventually removed from the pits or
feces tanks.
- 140 -
New
Host
Wise use of Water
By Yasumoto Magara
��
Malnutrition &
stunting
(Unicef)
120
20000
Mortality
Latrine Coverage, %
100
Lower IQ
15000
Latrine Coverage, %
80
Anemia contributing to
maternal
mortality
60
10000
Mortality
Shorter body
height
40
5000
20
0
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
1998
��
��
��
Drinking water Quality
��
��
��
��
��
��
� � ��
��
��
��
��
AA
�
� ��
��
� ��
� ��
��
Precipitatio
n
Dam & Reservoir
Raw water quality
Supply
RawR quality
Raw water
Chlorination
Rainwater harvesting
Fe. Coli
0/100ml
YE
S
Spring water
NO
Next
Rapid sand Filt.
YES
Turb.5
Water Quality
Oxid.
NO
NO
Shallow well
NO
Deep well
Down Stream
Selection of system for surface
water
Supply
YES
Quantity
Upper stream
Ground water
Cascadian Selection of water
system
Demand
� ��
Spring water
��
�
��
NO
Surfacewater
Surface
N
O
Turb.30
Fe, Mn,NH4
Slow sand Filt.
NO
Coag.
Arsenic affected countries in Asia
��
M o ngo lia
• ��
• ��
��
��
• ��
��
Chin a
Pa kista n
Nep a l
Ba ng la d esh
Ind ia
M ya nm a r
Lao PD R
Tha ila nd
Vietna m
Ca m b o d ia
- 141 -
YES
Wise use of Water
By Yasumoto Magara
• Arsenic contamination -
• “An emerging public health problem”
Est. 200 million already affected
Population at risk - not known
Damage to health - irreversible and untreatable
Bangladesh
Arsenic
�~ 1970 water source was surface water & Shallow dug well
• Toxic and carcinogenic
• Known poison for >4000 years
• Acute poisoning symptoms occur within 30 min. of
ingesting lethal dose
• Arsenic toxicity in drinking water & Environment
• Chronic in nature
• Takes 5-20 years to develop symptoms
• Symptoms found in infants in China, India &
Thailand (possible transfer from mother to child?)
High mortality rate especially in infants and children by water
related infectious diseases�
Many tube well have
developed
Decreasing infant &
child mortality
India
Nwabganghee
Dahkka
India
Ganges delta
�In 1990 Ground water were contaminated by As
Burma
Excessive use of ground water irrigattion
Tubewell�&�Dugwell
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
�
�
�
0.62
Jyohzannkei
Hot Spring
18.5
Sewage treatment
plant
24.4
Caribbean
1.56
7.30
Toyohira River
Latin America & the
15.3
1.19
21.4
Water
purification
5.01
Sapporo
City
Africa
Latin America & the
Europe
Asia
Caribbean
Europe
Africa
Asia
Sewage treatment
Plants
20.3
Water Supply
1.1 billion
5.74
Land fill
�
What are the constrains for
safety water and Sanitation
��
23.8
�
Land fill
- 142 -
Sanitation
2.4 billion
��
��
��
Wise use of Water
By Yasumoto Magara
Annual investment in
urban water supply
Population growth rates and proportion
on informal settlements�in urban area
� � � � � � � � ��
��
��
��
��
��
��
� � � � � � � � ��
� ��
� � ��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
��
� ��
��
��
��
Strength of water pollution
��
��
Maintenance and rehabilitation of sanitation
��
��
Development of sanitation
��
��
Maintenance and rehabilitation of safe drinking water supply
��
Development of safe drinking water supply
�
��
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ��
��
��
Industrial wastewater
Domestic wastewater
Nitrogen, Phosphate
Hazardous chemicals
1960
1970
1980
1990
Current situation in developing countries
Strength of water pollution
Industrial wastewater
Domestic wastewater
Nitrogen, Phosphate
Hazardous chemicals
1960
Sustainable Development of
Water Supply Services
PAYMENT
1970
1980
1990
How much can we pay ?
• 0.8% of disposal income for water tariff
• The disposal income of the residents of large cities
such as the capital is greatly higher than for the
residents of rural areas.
• The dispensable limit varies even within one country
must be recognized.
• The problem depends on the system that is feasible to
facilitate and maintenance/control for the sustainable
services of water and sanitation
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM
BENEFIT
��
MDG
Distribution of Cancer Risk of
Tap Water in�Metropolitan Area
WATER
��
Water pollution aspects of industrialized countries
Cost for safe drinking water supply and
sanitation (2005-2015): WHO
Cost( Billion $)
��
��
��
� � ��
�
�
� � � � � � � � ��
��
��
��
��
��
� � � � � � � � � � ��
��
� ��
��
CHARGE
CONSUMER/COMMUNITY
SAVE LABOUR WATER CORRECTION & TREATMENT
CONTROL PATHOGENIC DISEASE
PROVIDE SANITARY FACILITIES
FIRE PROTECTION
OTHERS
BENEFICIENCE� - � BORN SYTEM
- 143 -
Wise use of Water
By Yasumoto Magara
Conclusions
• Full cost pricing
• Monopoly system
• Water is essential not only in healthy
daily life but also economical/social
activities
• Sustainability
• Customers satisfaction
– Governance/Transparency of business
– Financial soundness
– Human resource
- 144 -