Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO do 2050. godine
HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine HRVATSKO ENERGETSKO DRUŠTVO CROATIAN ENERGY SOCIETY 22. FORUM: DAN ENERGIJE U HRVATSKOJ 22nd FORUM: ENERGY DAY IN CROATIA Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 26. studenog 2013. / 26th November 2013 Mala dvorana “Vatroslav Lisinski” / Small Hall 'Vatroslav Lisinski' Zagreb, Trg Stjepana Radića 4 HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Izdavač / Publisher: Hrvatsko energetsko društvo Zagreb, Savska cesta 163 Priredili / Edit by: Dr. sc. Goran Granić Dr. sc. Branka Jelavić Glavna i odgovorna urednica / Editor: Dr.sc. Branka Jelavić Pomoćnici glavne urednice / Assistants of the Editor: Mr.sc. Sandra Antešević Vlatka Kos-Grabar, mag.ing.el.techn.inf. Dizajn naslovnice / Cover design: Darko Juričić, dipl.diz. Pripremila za tisak / Prepress: Martina Komerički Košarić, mag.oec. Lektura / Language editing: Prof. Anita Filipović Engleski prijevodi / English translation: Vlatka Kos-Grabar, mag.ing.el.techn.inf. Ivana Grgurev, mag.oec. Tisak / Press: AZP-Grafis Samobor, Franjina 7 Autorska prava / Copyright: Hrvatsko energetsko društvo Zagreb, Savska cesta 163 Naklada / Edition: 250 primjeraka Za sve navode u člancima odgovorni su isključivo autori. Authors are responsible for all statements made in their articles. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Sadržaj / Contents PREDGOVOR ....................................................................................................................................5 FOREWORD ......................................................................................................................................6 ŽIVOTOPISI PREDAVAČA / PRESENTERS CURRICULUM VITAE .........................................7 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. Goran Granić ...............................................................................................................................8 Slav Slavov ..................................................................................................................................9 Stefan Ulreich ..............................................................................................................................9 Karl Rose ...................................................................................................................................10 Francesco Gracceva ...................................................................................................................10 Amit Kanudia ............................................................................................................................10 GianCarlo Tosato.......................................................................................................................11 Višnja Grgasović .......................................................................................................................11 Ralf Kaldenhoff .........................................................................................................................11 Namejs Zeltins ...........................................................................................................................12 Anuška Bole ..............................................................................................................................13 Jure Šimic ..................................................................................................................................13 Branko Bošnjaković ..................................................................................................................13 Paolo Blecich .............................................................................................................................14 Bernard Franković .....................................................................................................................14 Davor Škrlec ..............................................................................................................................15 Dubravko Sabolić ......................................................................................................................16 László Horváth ..........................................................................................................................16 Goran Majstrović .......................................................................................................................16 Toni Borković............................................................................................................................17 Vladimir Potočnik .....................................................................................................................17 SAŽETCI REFERATA / PAPER ABSTRACTS .............................................................................18 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Goran Granić i suradnici: Porez ili naknada na CO2 kao jedinstveni ekonomski instrument za vođenje politike zaštite klime, povećanja korištenja obnovljivih izvora i energetske učinkovitosti / CO2 tax or fee as a single economic instrument for climate protection policy promoting renewable energy sources and enhancing energy efficiency………………….....…19 Slav Slavov: Razotkrivanje mitova – definiranje budućnosti / Exposing the myths - defining the future……………………………………………...…………………………………..……21 Stefan Ulreich: Europska unija – 2030. energetski i klimatski okvir – stav Svjetskog energetskog vijeća / The EU – 2030 energy and climate framework – the view of the World Energy Council……………………………………………………………………………...….23 Karl Rose: Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2: Što mogu ponuditi scenariji "Jazz" i "Symphony" / How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals: What 'Jazz' and 'Symphony' can offer…………………………………………...………………………………………………..24 Francesco Gracceva, Amit Kanudia, GianCarlo Tosato: Niskougljični energetski sustav EU-a i nekonvencionalni izvori / A low carbon EU energy system and unconventional sources……………………………………………………………………………………..…...25 HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 3 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine 6. Višnja Grgasović: Razvoj niskougljične strategije u Hrvatskoj / The development of lowcarbon strategy in Croatia………………………………………………………………….......27 7. Ralf Kaldenhoff: Uloga iskorištavanja algi u smanjenju koncentracije CO2 u atmosferi / Algae technology for reduction of atmospheric CO2 concentrations…………….………………...…28 8. V. Zebergs, N. Zeltins, A. Semenako: Nova tehnologija i OIE za smanjenje emisija CO2 u proizvodnji energije i topline / A new technology and RES for CO2 emissions reduction from the production of heat and electricity……………………………………...…………………...29 9. Anuška Bole, Andrej Šušteršič, Rudi Vončina: Smanjenje emisija CO2 u energetici / CO2 emission reduction in energy sector…………………………………………...…………..…...30 10. Jure Šimic, Karina Medved, Matjaž Eberlinc: Postizanje ciljeva smanjenja emisija CO2 s energetskim infrastrukturnim projektima / Achieving CO2 emissions reduction goals with energy infrastructure projects…………..…………………………………………………...….31 11. Branko Bošnjaković, Paolo Blecich, Bernard Franković: Energija i klimatske promjene – izazovi i izgledi politike EU-a / Energy and climate change – challenges and prospects of the EU policy…………………….………………………………………………………………...32 12. Davor Škrlec: Utjecaj pametnih mreža na klimatske promjene / The impact of smartgrids on climate change…………………………………………………………..……………………...33 13. Dubravko Sabolić: Cjenovni signali s tržišta električne energije i sustavi subvencija za obnovljive izvore / Price signals from electricity markets and subsidy schemes for renewable sources………………………………………………………………………………………….35 14. László Horváth, Goran Majstrović: Pogon vjetroelektrana u dugoročnom razdoblju / Wind power plant operation in the long term time horizon…………………………………………..36 15. Toni Borković: Povećanje energetske učinkovitosti u zgradarstvu u cilju smanjenju emisija do 2050. godine / Increasing energy efficiency in buildings in order to reduce emissions by the year 2050……………………………………………………………………………………….37 16. Vladimir Potočnik: Defosilizacija hrvatske energetike / Croatian energy system defossilization………………………………………………………………………………….38 SPONZORI 22. FORUMA / 22nd FORUM SPONSORSHIP…………………….....……………..39 HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 4 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine PREDGOVOR Zašto je potrebno već danas analizirati energetski razvoj do 2050. godine, posebno u svjetlu činjenice da je Hrvatska u gospodarskim problemima te zbog kontinuiranog pada gospodarskih aktivnosti u posljednjih nekoliko godina? Naravno, analiziranje energetskog razvoja do 2050. godine nije pogađanje mogućih događaja, nego takvu dugoročnu analizu zahtijeva karakter i složenost energetskog razvoja, dugo razdoblje pripreme objekata i postrojenja, dugi životni vijek postrojenja, dimenzija tehnološkog razvoja i kontinuiranost rasta energetskih potreba. Novi razlog za nužnost promatranja energetskog razvoja na dugi rok, s horizontom najmanje do 2050. godine, jesu klimatske promjene i radikalno smanjenje emisija CO2 i drugih stakleničkih plinova prema planu EU do 2050. godine. Utjecaj dopuštene razine emisija CO2 na strukturu energetske proizvodnje i potrošnje je drastičan te iz osnova mijenja strukturu proizvodnje i potrošnje energije. Možda je to i najveći problem u razumijevanju problematike energetskog razvoja jer prvi put ključni utjecajni faktor ima opadajuću vrijednost u definiranju funkcije cilja, od značajnih do minimalnih (neznatnih) vrijednosti. Energetika u 2050. godini je sasvim različita od energetike iz 2013. godine. To nije kontinuitet energetskog razvoja, nego diskontinuitet. Za provođenje energetske politike koja treba dovesti do radikalnog smanjenja emisija CO2 potreban je novi zakonodavni i ekonomski pristup, novi tehnološki razvoj te politička odlučnost da se to realizira. Važan čimbenik je i vrijeme, jer odgađanje definiranja novog pristupa energetskoj politici smanjuje mogućnost njezina ostvarenja. Dodatni argument za novi tehnološki razvoj je mobilizacija znanosti i industrije za ostvarenje tehnološkog iskoraka, koji je potreban za ostvarivanje energetike bez emisija ili s minimalnim emisijama, kod obnovljivih izvora, izdvajanja i skladištenja CO2, kod energetske učinkovitosti u cijelom rasponu od proizvodnje, prijenosa i distribucije do potrošnje i uređaja i trošila koja koriste kupci, kod pametnih mreža, skladištenja energije i prometa. Smanjenje potrošnje energije u zgradarstvu je energetski, ekonomski, graditeljski i organizacijski poduhvat, koji treba obuhvatiti svaku poslovnu i stambenu zgradu. Treba otkloniti sve nedostatke koji su nastali u razdoblju kada se energija nije uzimala kao utjecajni čimbenik u standardima gradnje, a za provedbu takvog plana trebat će desetljeća. Zbog svega navedenog, već danas je potrebno analizirati energetski razvoj do 2050. godine i donijeti operativne planove razvoja, kako energetike, tako i znanosti i industrije. Svaki dan kašnjenja smanjuje mogućnost ostvarenja zadanih ciljeva. Predsjednik Hrvatskog energetskog društva Dr.sc. Goran Granić HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 5 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine FOREWORD Why is it already today necessary to analyze the energy development to the year 2050, especially in light of the fact that Croatia is in economic problems and that in recent years is recorded continuous economic fall? Certainly, analyzing the energy development to 2050 is not simply guessing possible cases. In such long-term analysis the nature and complexity of the energy development, a long period of preparing plants and facilities, a long service life of plants, dimensions of technological development and continuous growth of energy demand should be taken into consideration. New reasons for a long-term observation of the energy development, at least by 2050, are climate change and radical reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases according to the EU Energy Policy to 2050. The impact of permitted level of carbon dioxide emissions on the energy production and consumption is drastic and fundamentally changes the structure of energy production and consumption. Perhaps this is the biggest problem in understanding issues of the energy development. For the first time key influential factor has a declining value in the defining goal function, from the significant to the minimum (negligible) values. Energy sector in the year 2050 is completely different from the energy sector in 2013. This is not the continuity, but the discontinuity of the energy development. The new legal and economical approach as well as the new technological development and political determination are required for the implementation of energy policy which should lead to radical reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. The time is also an important factor because postponement of defining the new approach of energy policy decreases the possibility of its realization. An additional argument for a new technological development is the mobilization of the science and industry for achieving that new step in technological development. This development is required in order to develop the energy industry without or with minimal greenhouse gas emissions. Furthermore, it is very important for renewable energy, at the carbon dioxide capture and storage, at the energy efficiency in the whole range of activities, from the production, transmission and distribution to the consumption of devices and equipment used by customers, at smart grids, at the energy storage and vehicles. Reducing the energy consumption in buildings is energy, economical, architectural and organizational project which has to include every commercial and residential building. It is important to eliminate all disadvantages that incurred in the period when the energy was not an influential factor in construction standards. It will take decades to implement the plan described above. Due to facts mentioned here, it is, already today, necessary to analyse the energy development to the year 2050 and bring out operational developing plans in the energy sector as well as in the industry and science. This analysis requires immediate action because each day of delay reduces the possibility to achieve set goals. Chairman of the Croatian Energy Society Goran Granić, PhD HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 6 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine ŽIVOTOPISI PREDAVAČA / PRESENTERS CURRICULUM VITAE HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 7 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Goran Granić Born: 18 April 1950 in Baška Voda, Republic of Croatia Education: 1979 1976 1972 Ph.D. Electrical Engineering, University of Zagreb M.Sc. Electrical Engineering, University of Zagreb B.Sc. Electrical Engineering, University of Zagreb Professional experience: 2004 – present Energy Institute Hrvoje Pozar, Zagreb Manager 2000 – 2003 Government of the Republic of Croatia Deputy president of the Government of the Republic of Croatia Vice-president of the Government of the Republic of Croatia 1994 – 1999 Energy Institute Hrvoje Pozar, Zagreb Manager 1992 – 1995 Parliament of the Republic of Croatia First Vice-president of the Croatian Parliament Member of the Croatian Parliament Chairman of the Committee for Physical Planning and Environmental Protection 1991 – 1992 Institute for Electric Power Research, Zagreb Advisor in the Institute for Electric Power Research 1990 – 1991 HEP (Croatian Electric Utility), Zagreb First General manager of HEP 1987 – 1990 ZEOH (Electricity Company of Croatia), Zagreb Manager of Development Department, Member of Development Department Board 1973 – 1987 Institute for Electric Power Research, Zagreb Deputy manager of Study Department Director of the study unit Other: more than 160 publications in the field of energy sector planning Chairman of the Croatian Energy Society (HED – CEA) – WEC National Committee Member and Secretary-General of the Croatian Technical Academy 2006 – 2012 HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 8 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Slav Slavov Education: Technical University of Sofia, Bulgaria (Mining and Geology) followed by energy economics Employment: present occupation: WEC Regional Manager for Europe and Central Asia, World Energy Council – London previous function: (1980 – 2004) Adviser on Sustainable Energy Policies, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), Geneva, Switzerland Experience: formulating, promoting and implementing sustainable energy policies, programmes and individual projects active involvement in restructuring of coal and power thermal sector in all Central and Eastern Europe countries, including Russia and Ukraine (1990 – 1997) a project manager of a number of UN – global and regional projects related to energy resources, energy efficiency, clean energy fuels technology a coordinator of the UNECE with OPEC and IAEA – Vienna (2001 – 2004) Stefan Ulreich Born: 6 May 1968 Education: 1997 Ph.D. in Theoretical Physics, Ludwig-MaximiliansUniversität, Munich 1994 Diploma, Theoretical Physics, Munich Work experience: 2000 – present E.ON Group Manager 1997 – 2000 Dresdner Kleinwort Benson Quantitative Analyst Other: Advisor to the WEC Vice-chair Europe Member of EURELECTRIC and BDEW Wasserwirtschaft e.V.) working groups HED 22nd Forum (Bundesverband der Energie- und How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 9 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Karl Rose Prof. Karl Rose joined the World Energy Council in February 2012 as Senior Director Policy and Scenarios, leading the assessment of international energy policy making and the development of World Energy Scenarios to 2050. After studying Petroleum Engineering and a successful international career with Royal Dutch Shell, including that of Chief Strategist for the corporation, Prof. Karl Rose set up his own consulting company for strategic management, Strategy Lab in Vienna. In August 2010 he was appointed as Professor for Strategic Management and Applied Corporate Governance at the University of Graz. Francesco Gracceva Francesco Gracceva is an energy economist with more than 10 years experience in energy systems analysis. He has been working for ten years in the Italian National agency for new technologies, Energy and sustainable economic development (ENEA). He was responsible for the development of several MARKAL - TIMES energy models used for research activities and to support Italian decision-makers. Since 2010 he is at the Institute for Energy and Transport, DG Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. He is part of the Energy Security Unit, where he works for comprehensive quantitative analyses of energy security and its interactions with the other pillars of the EU energy strategy, integrating TIMES energy system models, the PLEXOS power market models and other models. He is author of about fifty publications of different types. Amit Kanudia Amit Kanudia is an energy modelling researcher and consultant since 1993, has a Ph.D. in production and quantitative methods (operations research) from the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, the premier such institution in India and one of the leaders in Asia. His involvement in this field has been at diverse levels: methodological developments (like the introduction of stochastic programming in MARKAL), setting-up of large models (like the TIAM-World, the Pan European TIMES, the multi-region Canadian MARKAL), using models for policy analysis (several studies for the US Energy Information Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency, the International Energy Agency and the Canadian national climate change process), and the design and implementation of sophisticated user interfaces (VEDA: the data handling system that supports the MARKAL and TIMES models). He has published more than 30 articles and monographs in refereed scientific journals in the area of energy-environment modelling. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 10 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine GianCarlo Tosato GianCarlo Tosato is a senior energy technology system analyst. He has worked for thirty five years now at energy modelling and analysis in private companies and public organizations, domestically and internationally. Since February 2002, he is Project Head and Research Director of the Implementing Agreement on the Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme within the framework of the International Energy Agency (IEA-ETSAP; www.iea-etsap.org). Most IEA/OECD countries are active members of ETSAP and have been co-operating for some 30 years now on energy technology analysis using the MARKALTIMES technical-economic model generator. The ETSAP analyses and models are currently used in more than 60 countries and adopted as a reference tool for quantitative evaluations of energy and technology policies, environmental protection and climate change mitigation strategies. The TIMES global multi-regional model is currently used at the IEA Secretariat in Paris by the Energy Technology Perspective projects and Scenarios analysis (ETP 2006 / 2008 / 2010 / 2012). Višnja Grgasović Višnja Grgasović, born 1965 in Sveti Ivan Zelina, Croatia. Diploma in Geology, employed in the Ministry of Environmental and Nature Protection of the Republic of Croatia at the position Head of climate, ozone and sea protection. Main areas of work are protection of climate and ozone layer. She is engaged in the business operation of the national system for monitoring greenhouse gas emissions, the implementation of measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by sectors, the climate change adaptation and of drawing up regulations for coordinating the area of climate and ozone layer with EU regulations. She participates in the development of technical and professional background as well as in the negotiating platform for multilateral and bilateral treaties and other agreements in the field of climate protection. Ralf Kaldenhoff Born: 2 October 1958 Education: 1980 – 1985 Diploma in Biology, Universität Hannover, Germany Work experience: 2003 – today Technische Universität Darmstadt, Germany Professor 1996 – 2003 Universität Würzburg, Germany Professor 1995 Yamada Science Foundation, Japan Scholarship – Postdoc HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 11 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine 1994 Ohio State University, USA Scholarship – Postdoc Universität Hannover, Germany Assistant Professor Max-Planck-Institute for Molecular Genetics, Berlin, Germany Scholarship – Postdoc Universität Hannover, Germany PhD student 1991 – 1994 1989 – 1991 1986 – 1989 Other: dean of study, faculty advisory committee, commissioner for international relations leader and coordinator of many projects in Plant Science, restructuring, organisation and management in the scientific field and universities Namejs Zeltins Born: 12 August 1935 Interests: Fuel and Energy Complex including Renewables, Nuclear, Energy Economy, Efficiency and Ecology Education: 1993 1984 1972 – 1979 1966 Dr.habil.sc.ing., Institute of Physical Energetics Dr.sc.ing., (Candidate of Science in former USSR - Ph.D. in Western countries), Georgian Institute of Energetics and Hydrotechnical Buildings Postgraduate, Institute of Physical Energetics, Latvian Academy of Sciences M. sc. of Theoretical Physics, University of Latvia (Faculty of Physics and Mathematics) Experience: Head of Scientific Group, Senior Researcher, Leading Researcher Manager of Postgraduate Studies Professor and Head of Energy Efficiency Centre of IPE from 1994 Professional Activities/Memberships: President, Latvian Member Committee/WEC Member of Board, National Energy Confederation Member of Advisory Editorial Board of Polish Academy of Science ‘Energy Policy Journal’ Honorary member of Latvian Academy of Science Publications: about 300 HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 12 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Anuška Bole Anuška Bole studied at Chemical Faculty of Chemistry and Chemical Technology of the University of Ljubljana where she received B.Sc. and M.Sc. degrees. She works at the Elektroinstitute Milan Vidmar on the department which deals with the environmental issues. The focus of work is on providing environmental feasibility studies, environmental impact assessments, technical consultancy, surveillance over construction and operation of plants and facilities and development of future technologies to be used in the area of environmental protection and optimal use of space. Jure Šimic Jure Šimic graduated on University in Ljubljana - Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geodesy hydraulic engineering / Civil Engineering. In 2007 he was employed by the HSE Invest, where he first worked as an engineer in the Lower Sava River Power Plant Chain projects. He participated in the preparation of the pre-investment phase of the Lower Sava River Project - technical base documents for the National Location Plan for Brežice and Mokrice. He participated in the preparation of preinvestment phase of the project HPP Renke, HPP Trbovlje and HPP Suhadol. He is now working the company HSE Invest as a Civil works supervisor on the project in the preparation and pre-investment phase. Jure Šimic is a member of professional associations SLOCOLD and the Slovenian Chamber of Engineers. Branko Bošnjaković Born: 18 February 1939 Education: 1968 Ph.D. in Nuclear Physics, Rijksuniversiteit Utrecht, The Netherlands 1964 Diploma, Georg-August-Universität, Göttingen, Germany Work experience: 2001 – today University of Rijeka, Faculty of Engineering Professor 1994 – 2001 UN Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva Regional Advisor for environment 1993 – 1994 WHO European Centre on Environment and Health Advisor 1991 – 1993 Regional Enviromental Centre for Central and Eastern Europe Bord member 1979 – 1992 International Non-Ionizing Radiation Committee (INIRC), today ICNIRP as a member contributes to the standardization of safety regulations 1968 – 1975 Universität München Research Assistant HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 13 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Other: 1994 – 2009 member of the international board, later the supervisory council of Avalon Foundation for promoting sustainable agriculture in the countries in transition 1994 becomes the member of Commission of Education and Communication of International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) consultant for international institutions like EU, OESS and UNESCO author or co-author of more than 120 scientific and technical papers in the areas of nuclear physics, elementary particle physics, radiation protection, institutional and geopolitical problems of the environment, natural resources and energy, and sustainable development Paolo Blecich Paolo Blecich (born in 1984) graduated in 2003 at the Faculty of Engineering, University of Rijeka. Postgraduate study enrolled in 2008 at the same Faculty. He is employed as a research assistant at the Faculty of Engineering, University of Rijeka. He holds lectures and exercises in the courses Thermodynamics 1, Thermodynamics 2, Heat exchangers, Thermodynamics of mixtures, Thermodynamics and energy, Numerical modeling in thermodynamics. Also, he is currently the postgraduate student representative. Within postgraduate studies, he spent one semester at the Institute of Technology construction (ITCCNR) in Padua, Italy. His areas of interests are thermodynamics, heat exchangers, renewable energy sources, passive and low-energy houses. He is the author or coauthor of round twenty scientific and professional papers and also participated in numerous international conferences. He is a member of International Solar Energy Society - ISES Europe, Freiburg. For his achievements during the study, he was awarded with Rector's Award (2008) and with Annual Prize (2009) of Croatian Energy Society for notable achievements in the area of energy. Bernard Franković Bernard Franković (born in 1946 in Rijeka) graduated in the year 1971 Mechanical Engineering at Faculty of Engineering Rijeka. He earned his master’s degree in year 1978 at the Faculty of Engineering and Naval Architecture, University of Zagreb. His Ph.D. thesis, in the field of engineering, was defended at the same University in the year 1990. His research for a doctoral dissertation he has completed as a Fulbright scholar at the City University of New York, USA. Since 1972 he is continuously employed at the Faculty of Engineering, University of Rijeka. Over many years of teaching he was elected to positions of scientific assistant professor, associate professor, full professor and full tenure professor. He was a dean at the Faculty of Engineering in Rijeka in two terms and the head of the Institute for Thermodynamics and Energy in four terms. The principal areas of his interests are thermodynamics, renewable energy sources and thermotechnical and thermal power systems. He has published one hundred and fifty scientific and professional papers, authored several HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 14 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine technical studies and a number of projects. Also, he is a member of several national and international scientific and professional organizations, associations and bodies. He is a member of the Scientific Council of Maritime Academy and the Scientific Council for Energy Academy and a regular member of the Croatian Academy of Engineering. He is the Vice President of the International Solar Energy Society, ISES Europe, Freiburg. He is a member of the International Institute of Refrigeration, Paris, and the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Airconditioning, Atlanta. For scientific work, he has received several awards and honors, among which stand out here: Annual Award of the City of Rijeka (1999), Annual Award Hrvoje Pozar (2000), Annual National Award for Science (2001) and Annual Award Rikard Podhorsky (2008). Davor Škrlec Born: 1 January 1963 Education: 1996 1990 1986 Ph.D. in Electrical Engineering, University of Zagreb M.Sc. in Electrical Engineering, University of Zagreb Diploma engineer (dipl.ing.) in Electrical Engineering, University of Zagreb Professional experience: 2012 – present University of Zagreb, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing Full Tenure Professor 2012 Ministry of Environmental and Nature Protection, Republic of Croatia Assistant Minister 2007 – 2011 University of Zagreb, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing Full Professor 2002 – 2007 University of Zagreb, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing Associate Professor 1997 – 2002 University of Zagreb, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing Assistant Professor 1987 – 1996 University of Zagreb, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing Research Assistant Other: active membership and leadership functions in professional organizations: IEEE Croatia Section, HRO-CIGRE, HO CIRED, Croatian Nuclear Society professional consultant in the subjects related to the power system and SmartGrids HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 15 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Dubravko Sabolić Dubravko Sabolić (born in 1969 in Zagreb, Croatia) obtained his Ph.D. degree in electrical engineering and his M.S. degree in economics from the University of Zagreb, Croatia, in 2004 and 2007, respectively. Since July 1994 he has been working for the Croatian Electricity Utility (HEP). From April 2007 to June 2012 he was the CEO of the Croatian TSO (then called HEP-TSO, Llc.). Now he works for the same company, Croatian Transmission Operator, Llc., as a Compliance Officer. From December 2001 to September 2004 he served as a Commissioner at the Croatian regulatory authority for telecoms (Telecommunications Council). From 2006 to 2011 he has been a member of Working groups for preparation of negotiations on Croatia's accession to the EU in two Chapters: Information society and media, and Energy. He is also an Associate Professor at the University of Zagreb, Croatia, where he teaches Engineering Economics for undergraduate students of electrical engineering and computing. László Horváth László Horváth is a senior wind expert at EIHP. He received the university graduate (dipl.ing) degree in electrical power systems engineering from the Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing of the University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia. László has extensive experience in site selection, wind measurement, wind resource modelling and assessment, wind turbine selection, wind farm design and optimisation. László also has experience in wind farm planning, economics, and regulatory issues related to renewables. He has been involved in many national and international wind energy projects and education campaigns for private and public clients. He is a member of State Office for Metrology/TC 88 (Wind Turbines). Goran Majstrović Goran Majstrović is Head of Transmission and Distribution Department in Energy Institute Hrvoje Pozar, Zagreb, Croatia where he has been working since 1998. Field of Goran's interest is transmission system planning and analysis as well as electricity market issues. He’s been actively participating in many domestic and international projects as a consultant, mainly in South East Europe, commissioned by the World Bank, USAID, US Energy Association, Energy Community, Ministries, regulatory agencies, TSOs, power companies etc. As an author or coauthor he published more than 90 studies and more than 80 papers. He received his PhD in 2007 at Faculty of Electrical Engineering, University of Split where he received status of Associate Research Scientist in 2009 and Research Scientist in 2011. Since 2008 he is associate at the European University Institute Robert Schumann Centre, Florence School of Regulation, Firenze, Italy. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 16 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Toni Borković Born: 10 March 1969 Education: 1995 M.Sc., Faculty of Architecture, University of Zagreb Key qualifications: Toni Borković is a chartered architect (he is a member of the Croatian Chamber of Architects), and is employed as a senior researcher at EIHP specialising in the energy efficiency of buildings. Recent activities he has undertaken include energy audits, the development of energy audit methodologies, the elaboration of innovative calculation methods for energy performance analysis of buildings, building sector analysis in Croatia and the region, the development of the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan for Croatia 2011 – 2013, and research in the field of EPBD transposition in the region (Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Macedonia). Toni possesses significant experience in the design and management of low energy and ‘passive’ buildings, and other building types, as well as in project management and the design of energy refurbishment programmes for buildings. In addition, he is a Lecturer in the field of energy certification and building fabrics and physics in educational programmes for certified energy assessors in Croatia. Finally, he is himself a certified building energy assessor – Level 2 – for complex building technical systems. Membership in Professional Associations: Licenced architect – member of Croatian Chamber of Architects Board Member of Croatian Association of Building Energy Assesors Chairman of Energy efficient and sustainable architecture board at the Croatian Chamber of Architects Vladimir Potočnik Vladimir Potočnik was born in 1936 in Travnik. In 1960 graduated from the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture in Zagreb, where he won a master's degree in 1975. He was employed at the Elektroprojekt, Zagreb from 1960 to 2001, where he participated in and lead more than one hundred projects in Croatia and abroad. He initiated a number of projects in Croatia and participates in defining waste management strategy and legislation in Croatia. He has published more than 80 papers in professional publications and proceedings of the meetings. He is also the author of two books. He is active in more professional associations for energy and environment. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 17 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine SAŽETCI REFERATA / PAPER ABSTRACTS HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 18 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Dr.sc. Goran Granić, Damir Pešut, dr.sc. Branka Jelavić, dr.sc. Branko Vuk, Željko Jurić, Laszlo Horvath, Biljana Kulišić Energetski institut Hrvoje Požar POREZ ILI NAKNADA NA CO2 KAO JEDINSTVENI EKONOMSKI INSTRUMENT ZA VOĐENJE POLITIKE ZAŠTITE KLIME, POVEĆANJA KORIŠTENJA OBNOVLJIVIH IZVORA I ENERGETSKE UČINKOVITOSTI Sažetak U radu je napravljena analiza dosadašnjeg načina ostvarivanja politike smanjenja emisija CO2 putem četiri gotovo neovisna procesa: tržišta energije, tržišta emisija, potpore obnovljivim izvorima energije putem Feed-in tariff (FIT) i potpore energetskoj učinkovitosti. Zaključeno je da takav sustav, koji je u pojedinim elementima i suprotstavljen, ne može dovesti do cilja, radikalnog smanjenja emisija CO2 do 80% ukupno i u proizvodnji električne energije do 95%, što su ciljevi EU do 2050. godine. Predlaže se novi sustav koji se isključivo temelji na jednoj funkciji cilja, emisijama CO2, upravljanju tog procesa putem poreza ili naknada na CO2, povrata tih sredstava na projekte smanjenja emisija CO2, na energetsku učinkovitost, obnovljive izvore i smanjenje emisija kod fosilnih goriva. Razrađene su osnove koncepta poreza ili naknada na CO2 kao ključna mjere za poticanje smanjenja emisija te je napravljena analiza utjecaja na cijenu energije različitih stopa poreza ili naknada na emisije CO2. Kritički je analiziran utjecaj novog modela na izgradnju obnovljivih izvora i povećanje energetske učinkovitosti u zgradarstvu. Razmotren je utjecaj novog modela na razvoj prometa. Uvođenje novog modela trebalo bi osloboditi tržišta energije od administrativnih ograničenja i privilegiranosti pozicije obnovljivih izvora i vrati sve u tržišnu ekonomiju, neovisno o tome koji se izvor energije za proizvodnju električne energije koristi. Jedno od ograničenja uvođenja novog modela je prevođenje postojećeg stanja u novi sustav, posebno u segmentu obnovljivih izvora i njihove zaštićene pozicije temeljem zaključenih dugoročnih ugovora. Razrađene su osnove modela korištenja financijskih sredstava prikupljenih porezom ili naknadom na CO2, za poticanje smanjenja emisija i ispunjenja dugoročnog cilja s minimalnim emisijama CO2. Na kraju su dane preporuke za uvođenje novog modela. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 19 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine CO2 TAX OR FEE AS A SINGLE ECONOMIC INSTRUMENT FOR CLIMATE PROTECTION POLICY PROMOTING RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND ENHANCING ENERGY EFFICIENCY Abstract This paper presents the analysis of the current implementation of the policy to reduce CO 2 emissions through four practically independent processes: energy market, emission market, support for renewable energy sources through feed-in tariffs (FIT) and support scheme for enhancing energy efficiency. The conclusion is that in this system, some elements of which appear to be controversial, it is not possible to reach the goal - a radical reduction of CO2 emissions by 80% in total and 95% in electricity production until 2050, which the EU has set as emission reduction targets for this period. Therefore, a new system is now proposed that is based on a single objective function, CO 2 emissions. The process would be managed through taxes or fees on CO2, while the raised revenues would be returned to projects aimed at reducing CO2 emissions, projects for enhancing energy efficiency, renewable energy sources projects and projects reducing emissions from fossil fuels. The paper outlines the basis of the concept of CO2 tax or fee as a key measure to stimulate the lowering of emissions and gives an analysis of the impact of different rates of tax or fee on CO 2 emissions on the energy price. A critical analysis of the new model's impact on development of renewable energy sources and on improving energy efficiency in buildings was carried out. Also, there is an analysis of the impact of the new model on transport development. The introduction of the new model should clear the energy market from administrative limitations and privileged positions of renewable sources and should bring all back in the frame of market economy, no matter what source of energy for production of electricity we are dealing with. One limitation to the new model is translation of the current situation in to the new system, especially in the field of renewable energy sources and their protected position under the already concluded long-term contracts. The paper also elaborates the basis for the model of using the revenues collected from taxes or fees on CO2 emissions to stimulate emission reductions and the fulfilment of long-term goal of minimizing CO2 emissions. Finally, recommendations are given for the introduction of the new model. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 20 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Slav Slavov World Energy Council RAZOTKRIVANJE MITOVA, DEFINIRANJE BUDUĆNOSTI (Službeno izvješće kongresa) Sažetak Ovim službenim izvješćem Svjetsko energetsko vijeće poziva kreatore politike i industrijske lidere da se „uozbilje“. WEC kao globalno energetsko tijelo razotkriva mitove raspravama o energiji te definira smjernice prema održivoj energetskoj budućnosti. Svjetsko energetsko vijeće potiče sudionike da pokrenu hitne i odlučne akcije sa svrhom razvoja i transformacije globalnog energetskog sustava. Ukoliko se to ne učini, ostvarenje težnji za trostrukim izazovom WEC Energy Trilemma definiranih dostupnošću, pristupačnošću i održivosti okoliša moglo bi postati upitno. Kroz svoje višegodišnje dubinske globalne studije WEC je zaključio da su izazovi s kojima se energetski sektor danas suočava mnogo ozbiljniji nego što se prvotno smatralo. Analize WEC-a razotkrivaju velik broj mitova koji utječu na naše razumijevanje važnih stajališta o globalnoj energetskoj slici. Ako se ne budu osporavale te će nas zablude dovesti na put propuštenih prilika. Mnogo je napravljeno, i još se uvijek radi, na sigurnoj energetskoj budućnosti, ali studije WEC-a ukazuju na to da sadašnji putovi podbacuju u ostvarivanju globalnih težnji za energetskim uspjehom, sigurnošću i ekološkim poboljšanjem. Ako energetske izvore želimo u potpunosti iskoristiti za ekonomsku i socijalnu dobrobit, tada moramo poduzeti hitne i odlučne korake kako bi promijenili načine kojima ćemo doći do energetskih rješenja. Uobičajeni poslovni pristupi nisu učinkoviti, „the business as usual is not longer a solution“. Naglasak se s velikih univerzalnih rješenja prebacio na uvažavanje regionalnog i nacionalnog konteksta te je značajno promijenio očekivanja potrošača. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 21 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine EXPOSING THE MYTHS, DEFINING THE FUTURE (Official Congress Statement) Abstract With this official statement, the WEC calls for policymakers and industry leaders to “get real” as the World Energy Council as a global energy body exposes the myths by informing the energy debate and defines a path to a more sustainable energy future. The World Energy Council urged stakeholders to take urgent and incisive actions, to develop and transform the global energy system. Failure to do so could put aspirations on the triple challenge of WEC Energy Trilemma defined by affordability, accessibility and environmental sustainability at serious risk. Through its multi-year in-depth global studies and issue-mapping the WEC has found that challenges that energy sector is facing today are much more crucial than previously envisaged. The WEC’s analysis has exposed a number of myths which influence our understanding of important aspects of the global energy landscape. If not challenged, these misconceptions will lead us down a path of complacency and missed opportunities. Much has, and still is, being done to secure energy future, but the WEC’ s studies reveal that current pathways fall short of delivering on global aspirations of energy access, energy security and environmental improvements. If we are to derive the full economic and social benefits from energy resources, then we must take incisive and urgent action to modify our steps to energy solutions. The usual business approaches are not effective, the business as usual is not longer a solution. The focus has moved from large universal solutions to an appreciation of regional and national contexts and sharply differentiated consumer expectations. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 22 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Stefan Ulreich World Energy Council EUROPSKA UNIJA – 2030. ENERGETSKI I KLIMATSKI OKVIR – STAV SVJETSKOG ENERGETSKOG VIJEĆA Sažetak Europska unija će definirati novi energetski i klimatski okvir za 2030. godinu. Europski članovi odbora Svjetskog energetskog vijeća nedavno su napravili upitnik vezan uz ovaj okvir koji se uvelike podudara s odgovorima država članica Europske unije na konzultacije glede 2030. Prezentacija će sažeti istraživanja i doprinose država članica EU-a ovom okviru. Nadalje, to će približiti temu rasprave koja je u tijeku i ukratko predstaviti budući rad Svjetskog energetskog vijeća na ovom pitanju. THE EU – 2030 ENERGY AND CLIMATE FRAMEWORK – THE VIEW OF THE WEC Abstract The EU is about to define its new 2030 energy and climate framework. The European MCs of the WEC made recently a questionnaire about this new agenda, that coincides largely with the responses of EU member states to the 2030-consultation. The presentation will summarize the survey and the member states contributions to the consultation. Furthermore it will sketch the ongoing discussions and briefly introduce the future work of the WEC Europe on this topic. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 23 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Karl Rose World Energy Council KAKO OSTVARITI CILJEVE SMANJENJA EMISIJA CO2: ŠTO MOGU PONUDITI SCENARIJI „JAZZ“ I „SYMPHONY“ Sažetak Ostvarenje smanjenja emisija CO2 i dalje je jedan od najizazovnijih zadataka današnjice. Globalna potražnja za energijom će rasti u desetljećima koja su pred nama. U mnogim regijama svijeta jeftina fosilna goriva čine se kao odgovor na stalno rastuću potražnju za energijom. Međutim, to za sobom povlači i negativne posljedice, ponajviše značajno povećanje razine emisija. Političari kao i sektor industrije moraju prihvatiti da teške odluke u ovom razdoblju moraju biti donesene kako bi potaknule stvarne promjene za buduće generacije kao i sam planet te kako bi se ograničile emisije CO2 i klimatske promjene. U svom izlaganju prof. Rose će dati uvid kako se ciljevi smanjenja emisija CO2 mogu postaviti, kako ih ostvariti te kako ostvariti ravnotežu između budućih energetskih potreba i opskrbe do 2050. godine, kako na globalnom tako i na regionalnom području. Uvid će se dati na temelju analize WEC-a u ovom području. Naime, nedavno su objavljeni Svjetski energetski scenariji (World Energy Scenarios): izvješće o energetskoj budućnosti do 2050. te scenariji WEC-a, „Jazz“ i „Symphony“. Potpuna analiza Svjetskog energetskog vijeća te izvješće i prateći materijal dostupni su na internetskoj adresi: http://www.worldenergy.org/publications/2013/world-energy-scenarioscomposing-energy-futures-to-2050. HOW TO ACHIEVE CO2 EMISSION REDUCTION GOALS: WHAT 'JAZZ' AND 'SYMPHONY' CAN OFFER Abstract Achieving CO2 emission reduction goals remains one of today’s most challenging tasks. Global energy demand will grow for many decades to come. In many regions of the world cheap fossil fuels seem to be the way forward to meet ever growing energy demand. However, there are negative consequences to this, most notably increasing emission levels. Politicians and industry therefore must accept that make hard choices in this generation need to be made to bring about real changes for future generations and the planet to limit CO2 emissions and climate change. In his presentation, Prof. Rose will provide an insight into how CO2 emission reduction goals can be set and achieved and how a balance between future energy needs and supply can be realised in the long run up to 2050 both globally and regionally. This will be done based on WEC’s own leading analysis in this area, namely it recently launched World Energy Scenarios: composing energy futures to 2050 report and WEC’s scenarios, Jazz and Symphony. WEC’s full analysis, the complete report and supporting material is available online at: http://www.worldenergy.org/publications/2013/world-energy-scenarios-composing-energy-futuresto-2050. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 24 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Francesco Gracceva1, Amit Kanudia2, GianCarlo Tosato2 1 EC-Joint Research Centre-Institute for Energy, Petten, The Netherlands KanORS-EMR, New Delhi, India 3 IEA-ETSAP, Rome, Italy 2 NISKOUGLJIČNI ENERGETSKI SUSTAV EU-a I NEKONVENCIONALNI IZVORI Sažetak U radu se istražuje potencijalna uloga nekonvencionalnih fosilnih goriva u globalnom niskougljičnom energetskom sustavu. Koristeći sistemski pristup, rad predstavlja originalnu primjenu globalnog energetskog sistemskog modela djelomične ravnoteže (TIAM-JET). Kako bi se dala svjetska perspektiva s detaljima europskog energetskog sustava, ovaj model povezuje skup dodatnih europskih makro regija s 30 europskih zemalja. Prvo, pregled najnovijih procjena raspoloživih zaliha nekonvencionalnih izvora ugljikovodika je iskorišten za izgradnju skupa pretpostavki za analizu scenarija. Drugo, pretpostavljajući različite dostupnosti i trošak nekonvencionalnih goriva, skup scenarija se pridodaje i Scenariju trenutnog trenda i Scenariju ograničenog ugljika (CC) kako bi se istražile perspektive nekonvencionalnog plina i nafte u scenariju prepolovljenja emisije CO2 do 2050. godine, koji je u skladu s porastom temperature za dva stupnja. Rezultati pokazuju mogu li i kako nekonvencionalni izvori doprinijeti robusnosti europskog energetskog sustava s obzirom na ograničenje ugljika. Mi definiramo robusnost kao sposobnost energetskog sustava da prilagodi svoju evoluciju dugoročnim ograničenjima i da nastavi isporučivati energetske usluge krajnjim korisnicima. U našem pristupu robusnost predstavlja dugoročnu dimenziju energetske sigurnosti. Procjena je da ova karakteristika sustava zahtijeva analizu širokog spektra faktora koji mogu vršiti stabilizirajući utjecaj na sustav isporuke energetskih usluga zajedno s njihovim vezama, trenutnim interakcijama i sinergijama. Pristup energetskog sustava koji se koristio za analizu zahtijeva da se u izračun uzme što više složenih faktora. Mi procjenjujemo robusnost sustava EU-a u odnosu na ograničenje ugljika uzimajući u obzir kako CC scenarij utječe na troškove energetskog sustava i cijene energije u okviru scenarija s različitim raspoređivanjem nekonvencionalnih izvora. Ovo osigurava uvid u sinergiju/kompromise između energetske sigurnosti i ciljeva zaštite okoliša. Dodatno, ovaj rad istražuje kako i u kojem opsegu dostupnost nekonvencionalnog ugljikovodika, poput plina i tekućine iz formacija škriljevaca, može utjecati na mješavinu goriva i tehnologija energetskog sustava EU-a pod utjecajem ograničenja ugljika, uključujući promjene u načelima međunarodne trgovine plinom. Ovi rezultati pokazuju kako prirodni plin može biti troškovno učinkovita veza prema niskougljičnom energetskom sustavu. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 25 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine A LOW CARBON EU ENERGY SYSTEM AND UNCONVENTIONAL SOURCES Abstract The paper investigates the potential role of unconventional fossil fuels in a global low carbon energy system. Making use of a systemic approach, the paper presents an original application of a global partial equilibrium energy system model (TIAM-JET). In order to give a worldwide perspective with higher detail on European energy systems, the model links a set of extra-European macro-regions to the 30 European countries. First, a review of the most recent estimates of the available stocks of unconventional hydrocarbon resources is used to build the set of assumption for the scenario analysis. Secondly, a set of scenarios assuming different availability and cost of unconventional fuels are added to both a Current Trend scenario and a Carbon Constrained (CC) scenario, to explore the perspectives of unconventional gas and oil in a scenario halving CO2 emissions by 2050, which is consistent with a 2 degree temperature increase. The results show if/how unconventional sources can contribute to the robustness of the European energy system with respect to the stress of a strong carbon constraint. We define this robustness as the capacity of the energy system to adapt its evolution to long-term constraints and keep delivering energy services to end users. In our approach robustness represents the long-term dimension of energy security. Assessing this "system property" requires analysing the wide range of factors that can exercise a stabilizing influence on the energy services delivery system, together with their relations, actual interactions and synergies. The energy system approach used for the analysis seeks to take into account as much of this complexity as possible. We assess the robustness of the EU system to the carbon constraint by looking at how the CC scenario affects energy system costs and energy prices under scenarios with different deployment of unconventional sources. This provides insights on the synergies and/or trade-offs between energy security and environmental goals. Additionally, the paper examines how and to which extent the availability of unconventional hydrocarbons, as gas and liquids from shale formations, can affect the mix of fuels and technologies of the EU energy system under a carbon constrained trajectory, including changes in the patterns of international gas trade. These results show how natural gas can be a cost-effective bridge to a low carbon energy system. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 26 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Višnja Grgasović Ministarstvo zaštite okoliša i prirode RAZVOJ NISKOUGLJIČNE STRATEGIJE U HRVATSKOJ Sažetak Okvirna konvencija UN-a o promjeni klime i Protokol iz Kyota pokrenuli su svijest o nužnosti smanjenja emisija stakleničkih plinova i dali odrednice energetike u svijetu, a posebice unutar Europske unije. EU svoje mjere postavlja u svjetlu pregovara o novom globalnom sporazumu za područje klimatskih promjena, za razdoblje nakon 2020. godine. Te odrednice slijedi i Hrvatska, provodeći aktivnosti na razvoju niskougljične strategije te uspostavi pravnog i institucionalnog okvira za uspješnu provedbu mjera smanjenja emisija stakleničkih plinova u Hrvatskoj. THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-CARBON STRATEGY IN CROATIA Abstract United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol have initiated an awareness of the necessity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and have provided guidelines of the energy in the world, especially within the European Union. EU sets its action within the negotiations on a new global agreement in the field of climate change, for the period after the 2020. Croatia, also, has to follow these guidelines. Therefore, Croatia conducts activities to develop lowcarbon development strategy and to establish the legal and institutional framework for the successful implementation of measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 27 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Ralf Kaldenhoff Technische Universität Darmstadt, Germany ULOGA ISKORIŠTAVANJA ALGI U SMANJENJU EMISIJA CO2 U ATMOSFERI Sažetak Nakon kratkog pregleda klimatskog stanja s naglaskom na CO2, u radu će biti objašnjen proces fotosinteze u neuobičajenom stilu na primjeru algi. Bit će opisani produkti fotosinteze i njihova pretvorba u korisne proizvode za ljudsku prehranu ili u bazne čestice za različite industrije. Nadalje, bit će riječi o stanju trenutnih znanstvenih projekata čiji je cilj poboljšati učinkovitost algi za sintezu terapeutskih medicinskih proteina. Također će biti opisano vrlo produktivno postrojenje za iskorištavanje algi uključujući njegovu integraciju u energetski koncept. ALGAE TECHNOLOGY FOR REDUCTION OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATIONS Abstract After a short overview about the climate situation with regard to CO2, the physiology of photosynthesis will be explained in nonprofessional’s style using algae as an example. The photosynthesis products and their conversions into valuable materials for human nutrition or into base substances for diverse industries will be described. Furthermore, I will introduce the state of the art on current scientific projects aiming to improve algae productivity and for the synthesis of therapeutically medicinal proteins. A highly productive algae facility will be introduced including its integration in an energy concept. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 28 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine V. Zebergs, N. Zeltins, A. Semenako Institute of Physical Energetics, Riga, Latvia NOVA TEHNOLOGIJA I OIE ZA SMANJENJE EMISIJA CO2 U PROIZVODNJI ENERGIJE I TOPLINE Sažetak Plan za smanjenje emisija CO2 u zemljama sjeverne Europe u obzir uzima veliki razmjer toplinske energije i pripadajućih metoda za rješavanje problema. Latvija do 2030. godine planira razviti moderno kogeneracijsko postrojenje s velikim kapacitetom koje će raditi na plin te u većoj količini koristiti obnovljive izvore energije, ponajviše drvnu biomasu budući da šume u Latviji prekrivaju više od 55 posto teritorija. A NEW TECHNOLOGY AND RES FOR CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTION FROM THE PRODUCTION OF HEAT AND ELECTRICITY Abstract The plan for the reduction of CO2 emissions in the countries of Northern Europe takes into consideration the great ratio of thermal energy and the related solution methods. Latvia is planning to develop till 2030 a modern high-capacity cogeneration electric power plant operating on gas and to use more extensively the renewable energy resources, particularly the wood biomass. The forests in Latvia cover more 55% of the country’s territory. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 29 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Anuška Bole, Andrej Šušteršič, Rudi Vončina Elektrinštitut Milan Vidmar, Lubiana, Slovenia SMANJENJE EMISIJA CO2 U ENERGETICI Sažetak Zbog ljudskih aktivnosti, koncentracija stakleničkih plinova u atmosferi se povećava mnogo brže nego što bi se povećavala prirodnim putem. Danas je jasno da su klimatske promjene rezultat ljudskog djelovanja. Radi sprječavanja, smanjivanja i ublažavanja klimatskih promjena, Europska unija, čija je članica i Slovenija, postavila je ambiciozne ciljeve. Kako bi porast temperature atmosfere ostao ispod 2°C, Europsko vijeće je postavilo cilj smanjenja emisije stakleničkih plinova za 80 – 95 posto do 2050. u odnosu na 1990. godinu. Važno je da je svaki pojedinac uključen u postizanje tih ciljeva. Dakako, najvažnija uloga pripada pojedinim sektorima, posebno javnoj proizvodnji električne i toplinske energije kao jednoj od najvećih „emitera“ stakleničkih plinova. Kao moguće rješenje za radikalno smanjenje emisija stakleničkih plinova iz navedenog sektora nameće se implementacija tehnologije skupljanja i skladištenja ugljika (CCS). U članku su opisani raspon mogućnosti smanjenja CO2, zahtjevi te okolišne nuspojave CCS tehnologije. Također, članak uključuje i evaluaciju implementacije CCS tehnologije u Sloveniji. CO2 EMISSION REDUCTION IN ENERGY SECTOR Abstract Due to human activities, concentrations of the greenhouse gases increase in the atmosphere much quicker than they naturally would. Today it is clear that climate change is the result of human activities. With the purpose of preventing, reducing and mitigating of climate change, the EU, whose member is also Slovenia, set ambitious goals. In order to keep rise of the global atmosphere temperature below 2°C, the European Council set an objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80 – 95 % by 2050 compared to 1990. It is important that every single individual is included in achieving of these goals. Certainly, the most important role is assumed by individual sectors especially Public Electricity and Heat Production sector as one of the greatest emitters of the greenhouse gases. As a possible solution of radical reduction of the greenhouse gases emission from mentioned sector Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology is implemented. In the article the range of CO2 reduction possibilities, technology demands and environmental side effects of CCS technology are described. Evaluation of CCS implementation possibilities in Slovenia is also included. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 30 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Jure Šimic, Karina Medved, Matjaž Eberlinc Holding Slovenske elektrarne d.o.o., Slovenia POSTIZANJE CILJEVA SMANJENJA EMISIJA CO2 S ENERGETSKIM INFRASTRUKTURNIM PROJEKTIMA Sažetak Europska unija je postavila kratkoročne ciljeve u Europskoj strategiji 2020. (smanjenje emisija CO2 za 20%, povećanje energetske učinkovitosti za 20%, udio obnovljivih izvora energije od 20%). Analize pokazuju da su države članice Europske unije uglavnom na pravom putu ispunjavanja ovih ciljeva; čak su i jedan korak ispred (uključujući Sloveniju). No, postavljanje ciljeva do 2050. znatno je zahtjevniji zadatak. Smanjenje emisija CO2 usko je povezano s povećanjem udjela obnovljivih izvora i strateškim planiranjem projekata, koji uključuju iskorištavanje potencijala obnovljivih izvora (npr. energija vode). U Sloveniji očekivani udio vodne energije u proizvodnji električne energije iz velikih HE u udjelu obnovljivih izvora do 2030. iznosi 1/3. Rad uključuje predstavljanje projekta o HE na središnjem toku rijeke Save u Sloveniji i njegovim specifikacijama (pod utjecajem raširenosti zaštićenih mjesta i promjenama u Zakonu o okolišu, koji primjenjuje europsku direktivu o emisijama iz industrije i Direktivu o sustavu trgovanja emisijama). Studije pokazuju važnost HE u smanjenju emisija CO2. Glavni zaključak rada ističe važnost energetskih infrastrukturnih projekata, koji pridonose kako smanjenju emisija CO2, tako i povećanju udjela obnovljivih izvora energije. ACHIEVING CO2 EMISSIONS REDUCTION GOALS WITH ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS Abstract The EU has set its short-term goals in the Europe 2020 Strategy (20% of CO2 emissions reduction, 20% increase in energy efficiency, 20% share of renewables in final energy). The analyses show that the EU Member States in general are on the right track of achieving these goals; they are even ahead (including Slovenia). But setting long-term goals by 2050 is a tougher challenge. Achieving CO2 emissions reduction goes hand in hand with increasing the share of renewables and strategically planning the projects, which include exploiting the potential of renewable sources of energy (e.g. hydropower). In Slovenia, the expected share of hydropower in electricity production from large HPPs in the share of renewables by 2030 is 1/3. The paper includes a presentation of a hydro power plants project on the middle Sava river in Slovenia and its specifics (influenced by the expansion of the Natura 2000 protected sites and on the other hand by the changes in the Environment Protection Law, which implements the EU Industrial Emissions Directive and the ETS Directive). Studies show the importance of the HPPs in terms of CO2 emissions reduction. The main conclusion of the paper shows the importance of energy infrastructure projects, which contribute to on the one hand the CO2 emissions reduction and on the other the increase of renewables. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 31 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Branko Bošnjaković, Paolo Blecich, Bernard Franković Tehnički fakultet, Sveučilište u Rijeci ENERGIJA I KLIMATSKE PROMJENE – IZAZOVI I IZGLEDI POLITIKE EU-a Sažetak Rad razmatra glavne izazove i izglede politike EU-a na području energije i klimatskih promjena, ne ulazeći u tehnološke detalje, nego se zaustavljajući na glavnim temama održivosti: gospodarstvu, zaštiti okoliša i osiguravanju radnih mjesta. Opisuju se temelji i ciljevi postojeće energetske politike EU-a te razlozi zašto je dosadašnji pristup smanjenju emisija stakleničkih plinova razočarao. Postavlja se pitanje hoće li EU ostvariti ciljeve za 2020. s obzirom na obnovljive izvore. Razmatra se i sigurnost opskrbe i dostupnost energije, posebice s pogledom na visoku ovisnost o uvozu u danas fragmentiranom tržištu. Za put naprijed do sredine stoljeća od ključne važnosti je razmišljanje o ciljnom okviru za 2030. Također, u radu je dan i prikaz stanja obnovljivih izvora energije i emisija stakleničkih plinova u Hrvatskoj. ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE – CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS OF THE EU POLICY Abstract The paper discusses the main challenges and prospects of EU policy in the field of energy and climate change, without going into technical details, but establishes the main themes of sustainability: economy, environment and new jobs. It describes the foundations and the objectives of the current EU energy policy, and the reasons why the current approach to reduction of greenhouse gases emissions is disappointing. Also, the question is whether EU will achieve the renewable energy goals for the year 2020. The security of energy supply and availability is also considered, especially in view of high dependence on import energy in the today fragmented market. For the way forward to mid‐century, the targets to year 2030 are of critical importance. Also, the paper gives an overview of the state of renewable energy and greenhouse gas emissions in Croatia. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 32 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Davor Škrlec Fakultet elektrotehnike i računarstva, Sveučilište u Zagrebu UTJECAJ PAMETNIH MREŽA NA KLIMATSKE PROMJENE Sažetak Globalni ciljevi za ublažavanje klimatskih promjena i smanjenje emisije stakleničkih plinova do kraja 21. stoljeća, popularno nazvani dekarbonizacija energetskog sektora, u svim strateškim dokumentima i akcijskim planovima računaju na znatno povećanje udjela obnovljivih izvora energije u razdoblju do 2050. Ovaj postotak varira od 80 – 100% proizvodnje energije i smanjenja emisije za 90 posto u odnosu na referentne vrijednosti iz 1990. Postizanje tako visokog udjela proizvodnje energije nužno će dovesti do ubrzanog razvoja distribuiranih obnovljivih izvora energije u kućanstvu ili na razini lokalne zajednice, što će posljedično povećati potrebu za fleksibilnim radom distribucijske mreže u bliskoj budućnosti. Pametne mreže (SmartGrids) mogu poslužiti kao snažan instrument za smanjenje emisija iz elektroenergetskog sektora integrirajući mnoge vrste naprednih informacijskih i komunikacijskih tehnologija. Potražnja za električnom energijom može biti prilagođena tako da nadoknadi isprekidanu proizvodnju energije iz obnovljivih izvora energije i smanji gubitke i to tako da se cijenama stimulira potražnja ili direktnom kontrolom energetski intenzivnih aparata. Pametna mreža koja omogućuje skladištenje distribuirane energije, kao što su baterije za skladištenje energije i hibridna električna vozila, također pomaže nadomjestiti prekide i poboljšati učinkovitost u radu mreže. Krhkost današnjih elektroenergetskih mreža na utjecaj klimatskih promjena i induciranih kriza sugerira da nove funkcionalnosti i primjene pametnih mreža mogu pomoći postrojenjima da rade učinkovitije nego što je to trenutno moguće i poboljšaju sigurnost i pouzdanost opskrbe električnom energijom. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 33 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine THE IMPACT OF SMART GRIDS ON CLIMATE CHANGE Abstract Global objectives to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the 21st century, popularly called the decarbonisation of the energy sector in all strategic documents and action plans counting on significantly increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the period up to year 2050. This proportion varies 80-100 % of the energy production and reduce emissions by 90 % compared to the benchmark in 1990. Achieving such a high share of energy production will necessarily result in the accelerated deployment of distributed renewable generation at the household or the local community level, which will consequently increase the need for flexible operation of distribution networks in the near future. SmartGrids can serve as a powerful instrument to reduce emissions from the electricity sector by integrating many varieties of advanced information and communication technologies. By communicating prices to stimulate demand response or by direct controlling of energy-intensive appliances, electricity demand can be adjusted to offset intermittent energy production from renewables and lower line losses. A smart grid that allows distributed energy storage assets, such as grid-scale battery storage and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, also helps offset intermittency and improve the efficiency of the grid operation. The fragility of today’s electricity networks to climate change impacts and induced crises suggests that the new functionalities and applications of the Smart Grid can assist utilities to respond more effectively than is currently possible and improve security and reliability of the electricity supply. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 34 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Dubravko Sabolić Hrvatski operator prijenosnog sustava d.o.o. CJENOVNI SIGNALI S TRŽIŠTA ELEKTRIČNE ENERGIJE I SUSTAVI SUBVENCIJA ZA OBNOVLJIVE IZVORE Sažetak Povećanje udjela intermitentnih obnovljivih izvora već i samo po sebi povećava cjenovne rizike na tržištima električne energije. Subvencijske sheme, općenito govoreći, dodatno izobličuju cjenovne signale koji bi dolazili s inače slobodnih tržišta. U elektroenergetskoj industriji čini se da su te sheme, svojedobno generirane kako bi potakle investicije u obnovljive izvore, narasle do takvih volumena da su i same počele vrlo značajno utjecati na čitavu strukturu tržišta. Time počinju narušavati cjenovne signale važne za osiguravanje adekvatnog razvoja, koji su ranije bili dovoljno stabilni za poticanje razvoja odgovarajuće strukture ulaganja u proizvodne kapacitete. Ovaj rad predstavlja pokušaj ocjenjivanja utemeljenja takvih politika. Ekonomski odnosi u sektoru pod sve su većim utjecajem, a u nekim dijelovima i pod izravnim vođenjem političkih institucija, umjesto da su vođeni ekonomskim interesima ulagača, što u konačnici može dovesti do vrlo velikih problema u ostvarivanju ciljeva dugoročne politike zbog inherentne neodrživosti takvih umjetnih ekonomskih aranžmana. Stavovi izraženi u ovom radu autorovi su osobni stavovi, koji ne odražavaju nužno stavove Hrvatskog operatora prijenosnog sustava d.o.o., niti se mogu pripisati tom poduzeću. PRICE SIGNALS FROM ELECTRICITY MARKETS AND SUBSIDY SCHEMES FOR RENEWABLE SOURCES Abstract Increasing share of renewable generation itself gives rise to price risks on the electricity markets. Subsidy schemes, in general, additionally distort price signals produced by economic mechanisms of otherwise free markets. In the electricity industry, subsidy schemes, once designed merely to incentivize electricity system decarbonization in its kick-off phase, seem to have grown to such a volume, that they, too, started to profoundly interfere with the whole market structure, and to distort price signals that used to govern long-term development of an adequately structured generation system. This article was made as an attempt to discuss contemporary electricity system policies in relation to RES integration. The economic relations in the sector are growingly influenced, or sometimes even hard-handedly guided, by political institutions, rather than by economic interests of the investors, which may in turn cause considerable problems in achieving ultimate policy goals due to unsustainability of such an economic arrangement. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, the Croatian Transmission System Operator, Ltd. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 35 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine László Horváth, Goran Majstrović Energetski institut Hrvoje Požar POGON VJETROELEKTRANA U DUGOROČNOM RAZDOBLJU Sažetak U 2012. godini ukupno instalirana snaga vjetroelektrana u EU dosegla je razinu od 100 GW, a energetska politika EU-a podrazumijeva daljnji nastavak potpore velikoj integraciji VE s ciljem većim od 220 GW do 2020. godine. Hrvatska, s trenutno instaliranih oko 250 MW u VE, ima strateški plan od 1200 MW instalirane snage VE do 2020. Nedavno objavljene promjene propisa najavljuju smanjenje ciljane kvote VE do 2020. na razinu od 400 MW. Novi koncepti energetskih sustava u EU s više decentralizirane i fleksibilne proizvodnje imaju za cilj dramatično smanjiti emisiju stakleničkih plinova do 2050. Pri tom će se trebati suočiti s nizom izazova, uključujući stvaranje uvjeta za veliku integraciju VE. Ovaj rad obrađuje očekivani razvoj VE u EU i Hrvatskoj u narednih 30 godina. Također, komentiraju se i ostali očekivani utjecajni trendovi u razvoju energetskog sektora, kao i očekivani troškovi izgradnje VE. Uvođenjem naprednih tehnologija, pametnih mreža i većeg udjela pučinskih VE na dubljim morima, pogon i uravnoteženje promjenjive proizvodnje VE će se znatno promijeniti u odnosu na današnje stanje. U radu se komentiraju i stopa zapošljavanja i porezni efekti koje donosi integracija VE. Na temelju navedenih raspoloživih ulaznih podataka i iskustava navodi se i lista preporuka za donositelje odluka u Hrvatskoj. WIND POWER PLANT OPERATION IN THE LONG TERM TIME HORIZON Abstract In 2012 total wind power plant capacity in EU countries reached 100 GW, while EU energy policy continues to support large scale wind power plant integration with 2020 target level of more than 220 GW. Croatia, with current level of 250 MW of installed capacity, has official strategic plan of 1200 MW till 2020, with recent changes of RES energy policy that introduces reduction of WPP targets to 400 MW till 2020. New energy system concepts in the EU with more decentralised and flexible production, aiming to dramatically reduce greenhouse emissions until 2050, will have to cope with number of new challenges including large increase of wind capacity. This paper deals with the expected development of wind power plants in EU and Croatia in the next 30 years. Also, the other expected trends to wind energy sector developments are given here, as well as WPP costs. With the introduction of advanced technologies, smart grid management and larger share of deep water offshore wind power plants the operation and balancing of WPP output will be different than it is the case now. WPP sector employment rate and tax return is also commented here. Finally, based on all above mentioned inputs a list of suggestions is given to energy policy makers in Croatia. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 36 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Toni Borković Energetski institut Hrvoje Požar POVEĆANJE ENERGETSKE UČINKOVITOSTI U ZGRADARSTVU U CILJU SMANJENJA EMISIJA DO 2050. GODINE Sažetak Građevinske tehnologije danas potječu iz prošlih stoljeća i energetska učinkovitost naših zgrada predstavlja atavističko razumijevanje skloništa od surovog okoliša. Dostupni su nam materijali i tehnologije za zamjenu baraka s ognjištem CO2 neutralnim zgradama, no, jesmo li spremni za to? Što je potrebno za dostizanje EU ciljeva energetskih ušteda - daljnji tehnološki napredak, novi materijali, neograničena sredstva ili nešto daleko teže provedivo - razvoj društva i duboke promjene u ponašanju našeg društva. Koje društvene alate trebamo za skok iz paleolitičkih skloništa u održive zgrade naših unuka? Kakvu obnovu građevinskog fonda možemo očekivati? Društveni interes je očit i mjere za savladavanje prepreka kao i znanje za razvoj održivih modela obnove postoji - preostalo nam je odlučiti vrijedi li taj cilj truda ili sadašnji trendovi zadovoljavaju potrebe civilizacije. INCREASING ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN BUILDINGS IN ORDER TO REDUCE EMISSIONS BY THE YEAR 2050 Abstract Building technologies used today originate in former centuries and energy efficiency of buildings represents our atavistic understanding of shelters from harsh environment. Materials and technologies are available to switch from the shed with the hearth to CO2 neutral buildings, but, are we ready for it? What is needed to reach energy savings goals of the EU - further technological developments; new materials; unlimited financial resources, or something far harder to achieve social development and deep behavioural changes of our society. Which social tools we need to leap from paleolitic sheds to sustainable building stock of our grandchildren, what scenarios can we foresee in building refurbishment? Social interest is already recognizable, and measures to straddle the barriers, knowledge to develop sustainable building refurbishment models exists - what is left to us is to decide whether it is worth the effort, or current trends meet the needs of human society. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 37 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine Vladimir Potočnik Hrvatsko energetsko društvo, Zagreb DEFOSILIZACIJA HRVATSKE ENERGETIKE Sažetak Defosilizacija energetike, kao glavnog uzročnika aktualnih klimatskih promjena, znači zamjenu pretežito uvoznih fosilnih goriva klimatski povoljnijim domaćim energentima, što ujedno olakšava izlazak iz krize. U radu se daje pregled stanja energetike u svijetu i Hrvatskoj i pregled klimatskih promjena. Opisuju se najvažnije mjere defosilizacije hrvatske energetike - povećanje energetske učinkovitosti, širenje obnovljivih izvora energije i ostale mjere. CROATIAN ENERGY SYSTEM DEFOSSILIZATION Abstract Defossilization of an energy system, as primary cause of the actual climate change, means exchange of predominantly imported fossil fuels with climate more convenient energy carriers, facilitating thus the way out of crisis. Overview of the world and Croatian energy system situation is presented as well as the overview of climate change. The most important Croatian energy system defossilization measures-energy efficiency increase, renewable energy inclusion and others – are described. HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 38 HED 22. Forum Kako ostvariti ciljeve smanjenja emisija CO2 do 2050. godine SPONZORI 22. FORUMA / 22nd FORUM SPONSORSHIP HED 22nd Forum How to achieve CO2 emission reduction goals by 2050 39
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