sg- Revised version August 6, 2004 How to define small-scale landfill gas projects? World Bank, Carbon Finance Business Unit Sandra Greiner Discussion Paper Abstract: While the first-best criterion to distinguish between small and regular size landfill gas projects may be the disposal capacity of the landfill, this criterion is unrelated to the definition of small-scale projects as it appears in the Marrakech Accords and in Appendix B of the simplified modalities and procedures for small-scale CDM project activities. There, small-scale landfill gas projects are defined as measures which both reduce anthropogenic emissions by sources and directly emit less than 15 kilotonnes of CO2e annually. The paper identifies and examines three generic interpretations of what could be considered the direct project emissions from landfill gas projects. The one deemed most suitable is to define direct project emissions as those emissions which are caused by and directly attributable to the project activity (Interpretation 2, variant 1 of this paper). This includes CO2 resulting from the combustion of methane as well as the emissions associated with the installation and operation of the recovery equipment. This interpretation of direct project emissions is favored not only because it follows an inherent logic but also because it makes a meaningful distinction between small and regular scale projects. With regard to the definition of annual project emissions, the paper concludes that this should be interpreted as average annual emissions over the crediting period and that the assessment should take place upfront and be confirmed by the validator. While the definition of other project activities such as renewable energy is clear and straightforward, what is to be considered a small-scale landfill gas project (LFG) is not equally intuitive and has spurred a number of different interpretations. The following note makes an attempt to structure this discussion and analyzes the pros and cons of each definition. Among the categories of small-scale project activities for which baseline and monitoring methodologies have been pre-approved by the Executive Board of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM EB)1 the one which is applicable to LFG projects is category III.D: Methane recovery. In order to qualify as small-scale, LFG projects have to meet the definition contained in this category. 1 See Appendix B of the simplified modalities and procedures for small-scale CDM project activities: “Indicative Simplified Baseline and Monitoring Methodologies for Selected Small-Scale CDM Project Activity Categories”, available at http://unfccc.int.cdm/ssc.htm 1 sg- Revised version August 6, 2004 III.D. Methane recovery Technology/measure 83. 84. This project category comprises methane recovery from coalmines, agroindustries, landfill, wastewater treatment facilities and other sources. Measures shall both reduce anthropogenic emissions by sources and directly emit less than 15 kilotonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent annually. CO2 emissions from combustion of non-biogenic methane shall be accounted for in the project activity In cases, in which the captured landfill gas is not simply flared but used to produce electricity, the project also has to meet the threshold criterion for renewable energy of a maximum of 15 MW installed capacity. Since this criterion is easily met by most LFG projects and its interpretation straightforward, this note concentrates on what is to be termed small-scale methane recovery. It should be noted that the definition used in category III.D. Methane recovery is not original to this category but follows the generic definition of small-scale projects type iii in the Marrakech Accords: “Other project activities that both reduce anthropogenic emissions by sources and directly emit less than 15 kilotonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent annually” (para 6.c.iii). Given the arbitrary language used in this paragraph, the CDM EB later clarified that the CO2e emissions resulting from a small-scale project have to stay below 15,000 tons annually. The question thus becomes: - How are “direct project emissions” to be defined in the context of LFG projects? - What does “annually” mean? The following paragraphs discuss a set of possible interpretations and analyze their consequential effects if being adopted by the CDM EB. 1. Project emissions of LFG projects After the implementation of a LFG project, greenhouse gases (mostly CO2 and methane) continue to be emitted from the landfill site. In fact, the credited emission reductions from LFG result in the conversion of a more powerful greenhouse gas (methane) into a less powerful one (CO2). The most important sources of greenhouse gas emissions are depicted in the figure below. 2 sg- Revised version August 6, 2004 CO2 (A) CH4 (B) CH4 (D) CO2 (E) CO2 (C) CO2 (F) CH4 (G) Emissions from the site after project implementation include: A) CO2 emissions from flare: in the process of burning landfill gas, CO2 is released into the atmosphere. Landfill gas consists of approximately 50% CO2 and 50% methane. Thus, the emitted CO2 stems from the following sources: - Converted methane - CO2 contained in landfill gas which remains unchanged in the burning process. B) CH4 emissions from flare: the flare efficiency is generally in the order of 9799.5%, meaning that a small portion of methane escapes into the atmosphere noncombusted C) CO2 emissions from the site: Due to technical and commercial restrictions, it is generally not feasible to collect all the gas produced in the landfill but the recollection system is usually limited to a 70-85% efficiency. Thus, the landfill continues to emit CO2 produced from aerobic decomposition of organic material D) CH4 emissions from the site: For the same reason, the landfill continues to emit CH4 produced from anaerobic decomposition of organic material E) CO2 emissions associated with the operation of the landfill site (transport of waste, consumption of electricity) 3 sg- Revised version August 6, 2004 F) CO2 emissions outside the borders of the landfill due to subsoil migration of landfill gas G) CH4 emissions outside the borders of the landfill due to subsoil migration of landfill gas H) CO2 emissions from electricity generation (similar to A) I) CH4 emissions from electricity generation (similar to B, minimal!) Given this multitude of emission sources after project implementation, the question of what should be considered as direct project emissions is not easily determined. Three generic interpretations as well as one interpretation outside the Marrakech Accords’ framework seem to emerge. 1. Interpretation: “All of the above” This interpretation is based on the rationale that project emissions are those occurring within the project boundary. If the project boundary is defined as the physical delineation of the landfill site, all sources of greenhouse gases need to be taken into account (excluding, however, emissions outside the landfill site due to subsoil migration of landfill gas, [F] and [G]). Pros: - The concept of project emissions as emissions inside the geographic project boundary is straightforward. Cons: - virtually no project is likely to meet the threshold criteria and to be categorized as a small-scale project . - complex data requirements and data uncertainty. Methane and CO2 emitted from the site outside the collection system can only be estimated with great difficulty and measurement uncertainty. 2. Interpretation: “Direct emissions from flares and engines” The starting point of this interpretation is not the physical boundary of the landfill but one of causality. Only those emissions which are the result of and directly attributable to the project activity should be counted as project emissions. All emissions which are unaffected by the activity should however be disregarded, most importantly the noncaptured CO2 and methane emissions. The “Glossary of terms used in the CDM PDD” adopted at the 7th meeting of the CDM EB seems to support a more abstract concept of the project boundary: “The project boundary shall encompass all anthropogenic emissions by sources of greenhouse gases (GHG) under the control of the project participants that are significant and reasonably attributable to the CDM project activity.” It can be argued that the portion of methane and CO2 left non-captured is neither attributable to the CDM project activity nor under the control of the project participants given that it is technically and economically unfeasible to fully capture all landfill gas generated by the site. 4 sg- Revised version August 6, 2004 Variant 1 In the strict logic of the concept, only the CO2 emissions from the flares/engines which result from the conversion of methane into CO2 are to be counted as these are the only ones undergoing a transformation in the process, thus being the only emissions under the control of the project participants and directly attributable to the project activity. In addition, emissions associated with the installation and operation of the equipment have to be taken into account. Variant 2 In a more physical interpretation, all emissions released from the flares/engines should be counted (CO2 from methane conversion, CO2 initially contained in LFG, non-combusted methane). This variant is theoretically unsatisfactory as it is based on both a physical and an abstract rationale. Pros: - Consistency with other small-scale definitions: Quantity of emission reductions which can be earned from LFG projects meeting this definition are in a similar range as quantity of emission reductions from other small-scale categories, e.g. renewable energy projects2 (more so variant 2) - The interpretation singles out landfill sites which would also be considered small in engineering terms, if measured by the more common standard of waste disposal capacity. Landfills which comply with this definition have a waste disposal capacity of roughly 1.7 Mio. tons and a potential for electricity generation of 1-2 MW. 3 Cons: - For some project developers, this interpretation may lead to an incentive to install a less efficient recovery system and capture less methane than technically feasible. By reducing the amount of methane captured and converted into CO2, the project’s emissions can be reduced in order to fit it under the definition of small-scale. This is certainly not in the interest of the UNFCCC and its overall goal to mitigate climate change. However, the effect can be considered small as 2 Following variant 1, the amount of 15,000 tCO2e annual project emissions imply yearly emission reductions in the order of 115,000 tCO2e. Given the chemical reaction which transforms one molecule of CH4 into exactly one molecule of CO2 and the molecular weights of CH4 (16) and CO2 (44), one ton of CO2 emissions from the project is the result of 16/44 tons of combusted methane. 15,000 tons of CO2 thus represent 5455 tons of combusted methane which yields 114,555 tons of emission reductions if multiplied by the GWP of methane. Projects qualifying for small-scale under variant 2 would yield approximately 57,500 tons of annual emission reductions, assuming an equal share of methane and CO2 in landfill gas. For comparison: a grid-connected hydropower plant of 15 MW installed in a fairly average emission intensive country yields approximately 55,000 tons of annual emission reductions (at 60% load factor and assuming a 0.7 tCO2/MWh grid emission factor) 3 The more lenient variant 1 definition allows to combust 5455 tons of methane annually (see footnote 2). Assuming an efficiency level of the recovery system of 75%, the landfill could produce up to around 7300 tons of methane per year. In a ballpark estimate, this amount would be produced in a landfill of approximately 1.7 Mio. tons of waste in place, given that 1 Mio. tons of waste typically produce 600/700 m3 CH4/hour (using a conversion factor of 0.000714 ton /m3 CH4). 5 sg- Revised version August 6, 2004 - - only project developers whose projects are marginally above the defined threshold are likely to reduce the amount of LFG captured in order to benefit from smallscale procedures since they are at the same time reducing the amount of carbon revenue. Landfills which generate an amount of gas compatible with this definition are at the very low end of commercial attractiveness. Given that commercial interest to engage in landfill gas recovery normally requires at least 1 Mio. tons of waste, this definition proves rather restrictive. The interpretation is not consistent with the geographic boundary definition used in other projects. 3. Interpretation: “Direct emissions from flares and engines not counting lifecycle neutral CO2” All CO2 and methane emissions from landfills are the result of either aerobic or anaerobic decomposition of organic material. One can argue that all CO2 that is emitted from the flares or engines (CO2 originally contained in landfill gas and converted methane) has initially been sequestered in biomass from the atmosphere and is being released again at the end of the biological cycle. CO2 in the natural cycle of life and decay should be considered neutral to the atmosphere.4 Applying variant 1 above, in which case only gases undergoing a transformation have to be taken into account, this interpretation would lead to zero project emissions for all LFG projects. If applying variant 2, traces of methane that leave the flares or engines noncombusted would be counted as project emissions. Similar to the discussion above, variant 2 is conceptually unsatisfactory as it is based on a mixture of physical and abstract arguments. Pros: - Consistency with approved methodologies for LFG projects where CO2 emissions from the conversion of methane are considered neutral and are not deducted from the amount of emission reductions. - Consistency with para 84. of category III.D: Methane recovery according to which CO2 emissions from combustion of non-biogenic methane shall be accounted for in the project activity. Inverting the requirement, CO2 emissions arising from the combustion of biogenic methane do not have to be taken into account. - Comparability of the investment: The upper bound of projects would be given by the size of the installed capacity for electricity generation which is not to exceed 15 MW. A landfill-gas-to-electricity project of 15 MW requires an approximate investment of US$ 18 Mio. which is comparable to investments required for 4 This is however only true for CO2 emissions originating from the decay of organic material. CO2 emissions due to transport or operation of the landfill (E) as well as decaying plastics cannot be considered climate neutral. Their proportion of the overall landfill emissions is however minor and they are likely not to exceed 15,000 tons per year. 6 sg- Revised version August 6, 2004 projects of equal size in hydro (US$ 15-25 Mio), wind (US$ 15 Mio.) and biomass (US$ 15-22 Mio.). Cons: - Virtually all projects qualify as small-scale 4. Other definitions “outside the box” Given the very arbitrary nature of the above interpretations and their greatly diverging implications, one may also approach the definition of small-scale LFG projects from a different angle and ask what kind of definition may be meaningful. Acknowledging the fact that the generic definition of type iii projects set forth in the Marrakech Accords contributes little to a clear and well-reasoned categorization of small-scale LFG projects, another option is to go back to the original intention of the Parties: to promote projects which due to their size attract little commercial interest but are considered desirable for reasons of equity and sustainable development. The main factors to determine commercial attractiveness of an LFG project are the characteristics of the landfill, in particular its depth and the amount of waste deposited in the site. A reasonable threshold may lie in the order of 5-10 Mio. tons of waste put in place at closure of the landfill, below which investments in LFG projects are feasible but not particularly attractive. In a rule of thumb estimate, a landfill of 10 Mio. tons generates sufficient gas to sustain generators of 5-6 MW. Pros - A technical definition of this kind is better suited to reflect the real line between commercially attractive and non-attractive projects The size of the landfill is directly related to the size of the investment and the amount of emission reductions which can be earned Cons - The approach bears no relation to the definition of small-scale projects of the Marrakech Accords which may pose legal problems 2. What are annual emissions? By simply referring to annual emissions, it is unclear how to categorize projects whose emissions may vary over time. Emissions from landfills typically follow a parabolic curve and are not constant over time. The question thus arises whether projects are allowed to emit 15,000 on average over the crediting period or whether this is the maximum they may emit in any given year. There appears to be no reason to discriminate against projects with an unequal distribution of emissions so that the first of the two interpretations seems to be appropriate. 7 sg- Revised version August 6, 2004 Secondly, it is not specified at which point in time the assessment of project emissions should be made and whether the initial estimate of the project being small-scale needs to be verified after project implementation. If so, projects would have to be reclassified as regular scale projects in case the upfront estimate proves to be incorrect and the project actually emits more than 15,000 tons of CO2e annually. In practical terms, this interpretation has not much to recommend itself and would add to the uncertainties and transaction costs related to the CDM. It would mean that projects surpassing the threshold amount would have to be revalidated according to the regular scale procedures, possibly adopting a new baseline and monitoring methodology and reversing the calculation of emission reductions. In case annual emissions is interpreted as average annual emissions over the crediting period, non-compliance with the threshold criteria could only be established at the end of the crediting period in which case it is too late to change the baseline and monitoring methodology retroactively. The only practical approach thus is to leave the assessment of compliance with the small-scale definition to the scrutiny of the validator who will make a judgment based on his or her best knowledge on the expected amount of project emissions, which have to be estimated in a conservative and transparent manner. Actual project emissions can however be considered at the time of renewal of the crediting period. 3. Conclusions From the four interpretations of small-scale LFG projects previously presented, the first one (“all of the above”) should be discarded as it would practically reduce the number of eligible projects to zero and would entail large measurement uncertainties. Likewise, variants 2 of the second and third interpretation (“direct emissions from flares and engines including CO2 originally contained in landfill gas”) should not be adopted as they do not build on a theoretically stringent argument. Among the remaining interpretations, the most lenient approach is given by interpretation 3 (“Direct emissions from flares and engines not counting lifecycle neutral CO2) which allows to include flaring projects of all sizes and electricity generation projects of up to 15 MW.5 This interpretation basically does not set any eligibility limitations and would allow projects to qualify as small-scale which may earn well beyond 10 Mio. tons of emission reductions over the crediting period. The ideal approach to distinguish between commercially attractive CDM projects and those which may need an additional push and should benefit from small-scale procedures may be the definition of threshold size of the landfill. This has been suggested by the fourth interpretation (“outside the box definitions”). However, this interpretation is unrelated to the definition of type iii small-scale projects in the Marrakech Accords and its adaptation to methane recovery projects done by the CDM EB. Under the prevailing circumstances, the second interpretation (“direct emissions from flares and engines) 5 However, one option to limit the size of flaring projects under this definition would be to calculate the amount of LFG necessary to operate gas engines of 15 MW. This amount would then define the threshold for cases in which no electricity is generated but all of the collected gas is flared. 8 sg- Revised version August 6, 2004 seems to offer the best combination of stringency of the interpretation and acceptable project size, with a corresponding landfill size of approximately 1.7 Mio. tons of waste put in place. With regard to the definition of annual project emissions, the paper concluded that this should be interpreted as average annual emissions over the crediting period and that the assessment should take place upfront and be confirmed by the validator. An ex post verification of actual project emissions in connection with a potential reclassification as regular scale project appears practically unfeasible. 9
© Copyright 2024