Policies and strategies for introducing biogas buses in public transport This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union (http://europa.eu). The content of this publication is the sole responsibility of Baltic Biogas Bus and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union. The Baltic Biogas Bus project will prepare for and increase the use of the eco-fuel Biogas in public transport in order to reduce environmental impact from traffic and make the Baltic region a better place to live, work and invest in. The Baltic Biogas Bus project is supported by the EU, is part of the Baltic Sea Region programme and includes cities, counties and companies within the Baltic region. Author: Stefan Dahlgren, Tharaka Gunaratne, Therese Fredriksson WSP Sverige Project Manager: Lennart Hallgren, Stockholm Public Transport Date: 2012-08-08 Reviewed by: Martin Ahrne, Biogas Öst Stein BjØrlykke, HOG Energi www.balticbiogasbus.eu 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Climate change and environmental impact caused by utilization of fossil fuels and an increasing transport sector has reached a point of no return. The dependency of fossil fuel is also endangering national energy security. The transportation sector is the highest energy consuming sector in the EU. This sector is also one of the most difficult sectors to deal with when it comes to transformation to alternative fuel. The transformation of large fleets, such as public transportation, to renewable fuel is an optimum starting point in reducing utilization of fossil fuel in the transport sector. As far as transportation fuels are concerned biomethane is the cleanest fuel that could be fed into a combustion engine at the moment. Unlike conventional fuels, combustion of biomethane will only produce carbon dioxide (CO2) which is carbon neutral since the biogas is produced from organic material. Stockholm Public Transport Company, responsible for the public transportation in the Stockholm area, has initiated the Baltic Biogas Bus (BBB) project, under the Baltic Sea Region program of the European Union. This report discusses in detail the existing energy situation in Europe, drivers for implementation of Biogas Bus Projects, factors hindering execution of policies and strategies towards fostering such projects, proposes a strategic action plan, and gives recommendations on strategies to implement and promote biogas bus projects on international, national and regional levels. In the end of the report a concept for a strategic stepwise action plan is presented and proposed. Different environmental, political and economic factors can be seen as drivers for implementation of transforming the public transport sector from fossil fuel based to renewable. Climate change, peak oil and security of energy supply, air quality and increase of transportation and congestion have been recognized as the most important drivers for change. Societal benefits such as locally produced biofuels as an energy source, regional infrastructure development, employment opportunities, sustainable waste management and the societal benefits of public transport have been also considered as added values. Thereby, environmental and societal benefits related to Biogas Bus projects are considered as prominent factors influencing the decision making of implementation. However, the implications of the economic and financial aspects of the role played by fossil fuels in the present day contextual, is a decisive factor. Taken into account the social economic costs the biogas is favorable compared to fossil fuels. Policies made at global level on combating climate change such as Kyoto Protocol and at regional level on nurturing renewable energies such as Twenty Percent Renewable Fuel by 2020 are usually manifested in strategies and political targets at the national level. The targets have to be ambitious enough to drive a real change and most importantly, should be adhered to irrespective of the political interests. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 3 Recommended strategies for implementation of Biogas as vehicle fuel are; General recommendations: To set ambitious long term sustainable environmental goals on national and regional level. Use the best available technique of today, don’t wait for the “perfect” solution to come. Long term contracts that make it possible for producers to invest in biogas production. Follow the development of new technical solutions and engage in projects and/or procurements to help new solute on to develop. Success factor: Important to disseminate knowledge of biogas as a renewable fuel. Economic Strategies CO2 tax on fossil fuel. fiscal tax on fossil fuel (in combination with tax exemption or tax deduction for renewable fuel). Investment support and soft loans for investors in biogas project have in Sweden been proven to be an effective strategy for promotion of biogas and biomethane production and biogas bus projects. Regulatory Framework Establishing adequate vehicle emission standards. Ensuring the accessibility of biomethane into natural gas grids. Adopting the green gas concept. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 4 Table of Content 1 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND ..................................................................................................7 1.1 1.2 2 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 7 BACKGROUND ......................................................................................................................................... 8 ENERGY BALANCE AND DRIVERS FOR BIOMETHANE IN PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION ....................9 2.1 ENERGY BALANCE IN EUROPE................................................................................................................... 9 2.2 DRIVERS FOR BIOMETHANE FUEL AND PUBLIC TRANSPORT.......................................................................... 11 2.2.1 Climate Change .......................................................................................................................... 11 2.2.2 Peak Oil and Security of Energy Supply ................................................................................. 12 2.2.3 Air Quality ................................................................................................................................... 13 2.2.4 Increase of Transportation and Congestion .......................................................................... 14 2.3 SUSTAINABILITY REQUIREMENT FOR BIOFUELS ......................................................................................... 14 2.4 POTENTIALS FOR BIOGAS PRODUCTION IN BALTIC SEA REGION ................................................................. 15 2.5 BIOMETHANE MARKET DEVELOPMENT – THE SWEDISH EXAMPLE................................................................. 16 3 FACTORS INFLUENCING DECISION MAKING ....................................................................................18 3.1 BIOGAS BENEFITS.................................................................................................................................. 19 3.1.1 Environmental Benefits ............................................................................................................ 19 3.1.2 Societal Benefits ........................................................................................................................ 20 3.2 FACTORS HINDERING IMPLEMENTATION OF BIOMETHANE PROJECTS........................................................... 23 3.2.1 Knowledge and Skills Barriers ................................................................................................. 23 3.2.2 Institutional and Administrative Barriers ............................................................................. 23 3.2.3 Technological Barriers .............................................................................................................. 23 3.2.4 Organizational Barriers ............................................................................................................ 24 3.2.5 Political Barriers ........................................................................................................................ 24 3.2.6 Market and Financial Barriers ................................................................................................. 25 3.3 ECONOMICS OF BIOGAS .......................................................................................................................... 25 3.4 PROCUREMENT RULES............................................................................................................................ 27 3.5 STAKEHOLDERS IN BIOGAS CHAIN ........................................................................................................... 27 4 POLICIES AND STRATEGIES ...............................................................................................................30 4.1 POLICIES AND LONG TERM TARGETS AT INTERNATIONAL LEVEL ................................................................. 31 4.1.1 Policies and Political Targets .................................................................................................. 31 4.2 STRATEGIES AT INTERNATIONAL AND NATIONAL LEVEL ............................................................................. 33 4.2.1 Economic Strategies .................................................................................................................. 33 4.2.2 Regulatory Framework.............................................................................................................. 34 4.2.3 Competence Development and Knowledge Dissemination ................................................. 37 4.3 STRATEGIES AT REGIONAL AND LOCAL LEVEL........................................................................................... 38 4.3.1 Collective Involvement of Citizens ......................................................................................... 38 4.3.2 Centre for Knowledge in Biogas .............................................................................................. 38 4.3.3 Stakeholder Involvement in Decision Making ....................................................................... 39 5 DEVELOPING STRATEGIC ACTION PLANS ........................................................................................39 5.1 DETERMINISTIC FACTORS OF AN EFFECTIVE STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN ....................................................... 39 5.1.1 Environmental Concerns ........................................................................................................... 39 5.1.2 Economic Aspects ....................................................................................................................... 40 5.1.3 Reliability and Durability ......................................................................................................... 40 5.1.4 Obligations/Liability ................................................................................................................. 40 5.2 PROPOSED STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN FOR BIOGAS BUS PROJECTS ............................................................. 42 www.balticbiogasbus.eu 5 6 RECOMMENDATIONS ..........................................................................................................................46 6.1 RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES ................................................................................................................... 46 6.1.1 General recommendations: ...................................................................................................... 46 6.1.2 Economic Strategies .................................................................................................................. 46 6.1.3 Regulatory Framework.............................................................................................................. 47 7 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................................48 www.balticbiogasbus.eu 6 1 Introduction and Background 1.1 Introduction Inevitable climate and environmental crisis caused by the prolonged usage of conventional fuel has reached a point of no return making prompt remediation mandatory. Extended dependency of fossil fuel has endangered the energy security of entire nations, and has paralleled the dire situation with a frantic requirement for alternative sources of energy. Transportation plays a vital role in the European Union (EU) as far as the energy mix is concerned. It is the highest energy consuming sector in the EU with a share of 30% of the total energy utilization (EU Energy trends to 2030, 2011). That is why the European Union through its „Renewable energy directive‟ has made a special requirement to achieve 10% renewable energy share in the transport sector on its way to achieve 20% renewable energy by year 2020 (European Union Committee, 2008). Also this sector could be seen as one of the most difficult sectors to deal with when it comes to transforming to an alternative fuel. That is because most of the vehicles were produced and are being designed to run on conventional fuel and therefore getting each and every individual person to change their vehicles/engines would be an extremely difficult task necessitating long time and perseverance. Therefore an optimum starting point would be the transformation of large fleets, such as public transportation, to be based on renewable fuels. As far as transportation fuels are concerned biogas is the cleanest fuel that could be fed into a combustion engine at the moment. In order to use in a vehicle engine, biogas needs to be upgraded to a certain quality in terms of the methane (CH4) content and hence, the upgraded biogas is called biomethane. Biomethane is very similar to natural gas in composition and characteristics and therefore could be used in natural gas engines. Unlike conventional fuels, combustion of biomethane will only produce carbon dioxide (CO2) which is carbon neutral since biogas is produced from organic waste. Thereby the climate impact is minimized by avoiding net input of CO2 to the atmosphere. Also the environmental impact is reduced by lower the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulphur oxides (SOx), carbon monoxides (CO), Hydrocarbons (HC) and particles. Furthermore, biomethane can be transported and stored using more or less the same methods used for natural gas. Such availability of distribution and end user infrastructure has made the prospects of introduction of biomethane as a vehicle fuel promising. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 7 1.2 Background Even though there are several success stories and good examples in Sweden, having a fleet of biogas buses is not yet been widely embraced and adopted in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) countries. Factors such as unawareness, lack of access to proper information and the complications involved in the long term process of transforming into an entirely different system, have been the primary causatives for this situation. Therefore Stockholm Public Transport Company (AB SL) who is responsible for the public transportation in the Stockholm area has initiated the Baltic Biogas Bus (BBB) project, under the Baltic Sea Region program. In the BBB project twelve partners from eight BSR countries (Sweden, Norway, Finland, Germany, Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) embarked on this project where AB SL is the lead partner. The partnership offers an ideal platform for cooperation, exchange and dissemination of knowledge, experience and technology. The partnership will obtain a better position to negotiate with infrastructure and bus suppliers. The BBB project aims to develop sustainable solutions on fostering entire biogas systems consisting of biogas production, upgrading, distribution and refueling of buses. Extended use of biogas for city buses will lower emissions, improve inner city air quality and strengthen the role of public transport in an efficient strategy to limit the impact from traffic on climate change. Hence the project looks forward to generate strategies in a systems perspective in implementation and future expansions of biogas buses in the region. The focus of this report is to discuss, propose and recommend strategies for implementation of biogas fuelled buses for public transportation in the Baltic Sea Region countries. Thus, the criteria that has been followed is; evaluating the present biogas situation in the region and the future prospects, recognizing the value added throughout the supply chain of biomethane, defining the stakeholders of implementing biogas based public transportation, identifying the barriers in introducing biomethane as a vehicle fuel and finally, identifying strategies for the successful adoption of biomethane as a vehicle fuel in the Baltic Sea Region as a whole. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 8 2 Energy Balance and Drivers for Biomethane in Public Transportation In this chapter, the primary energy mix in Europe has been discussed first in order to identify the composition of different energy sources and the trends of using energy sources. Following that the driving forces of biomethane as a fuel have been discussed and thereby the future prospects of biomethane as a renewable fuel have been identified. 2.1 Energy Balance in Europe It is evident from figure 1 that the use of renewable energies has an increasing trend. However according to the European Environment Agency (EEA) the involvement of renewable energy by 2008 was 8.4% of the total and it mainly consists of biomass (69.7%) which is primarily represented by wood and wood waste with a share of 67.5%. The effective share of biogas in the European energy mix would thus be approximately 0.4% which is insignificant to recognize as a sector with a prospective future. Figure 1: Europe primary energy mix in 2008 (European Environment Agency, 2011 (a)) www.balticbiogasbus.eu 9 Nevertheless it is quite evident that natural gas holds a substantial share of the European energy mix and that it also has been growing in use over the time compared to any other fuel. Further, according to the trend, utilization of fuel oil has remained the same – if not declined- owing to the increasing market prices and developing concerns on environmental issues and resultant stringent emission standards (figure 2). Therefore it is natural gas that has been able to bridge the gap of increasing energy demands over the last decade and which would also be reasonable to assume to continue for a significant time ahead. Biomethane is similar to natural gas in composition as well as characteristics, and hence would be readily available to be used in natural gas infrastructure. That means biomethane would be delivered (either through gas grids or in trucks) and refilled using the same methods which are currently being used for natural gas and would be combusted in the same way inside the vehicle engines, same as the ones for natural gas. Figure 2: Primary energy consumption trend in Europe from 1990 to 2008 (European Environment Agency, 2011 (b)) www.balticbiogasbus.eu 10 2.2 Drivers for biomethane fuel and public transport The need for biomethane as vehicle fuel could be seen as driven by a number of environmental, political and economic factors. 2.2.1 Climate Change Concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere today is the highest in human history and is still increasing, see figure 3. According to IPCC this is mainly because of utilization of fossil fuels and deforestation. Atmospheric CO 2 causes the greenhouse effect and hence leads the global temperature to rise. The phenomenon is called global warming that can eventually lead to climate change. Effects of global warming are melting glaciers, rising sea levels and changing patterns of ocean currents while effects of climate change can be anything from surged floods to intense droughts. Wide use of biomethane or other renewable fuels replacing fossil fuel minimizes these threats by keeping the net carbon emission to a minimum. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts in their scenario of continued perusal of global economic development, that the global temperature would rise by between 1.1-6.4 °C by year 2100. This is substantially higher compared to the global environmental sustainability scenario which predicts a temperature rise only between 1.1-2.9 °C. In order to limit the increase of average global temperature to 2°C by 2100, IPCC state that atmospheric CO2 concentrations must be kept below 400 ppm CO 2 equivalent and the increase of atmospheric concentrations must be stopped by 2015 at the latest (ScienceDaily, 2011). Transportation accounts for 30% of the European energy consumption and 23% of the CO2 emissions. Furthermore it is evident in figure 3 that it is only in the transport sector the emission of CO2 has continually increased over the last two decades. All the other sectors have either more or less stabilized or significantly decreased. Even though the total CO2 emission of the EU-27 has stabilized over the period it is essential cut down the levels in order to mitigate climate change. Therefore the best initiative to curb the aforementioned issues of using fossil fuel would be to eliminate the use of fossil fuel in the transportation sector. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 11 Figure 3: Sector wise CO2 emissions in EU-27 (European Commission, 2011) 2.2.2 Peak Oil and Security of Energy Supply World demand of fossil fuel is steadily increasing due to hefty economic growth in some countries, e.g. China and India. Demand is increasing while the supply, by many, is predicted to decrease, see figure 4. According to the peak oil scenario oil is not more than a depleting resource and the cost to extract as it depletes is increasing. This signifies the end of cheap oil and hence the prices would keep on escalating. Thereby entire systems are at a huge risk running out of fuel and are in a great need of switching to alternative sources of energy. The dependency on fossil fuel from politically unstable regions in a situation with escalating demand and depleting supply renders the targets for stable and secure energy supply at a great risk. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 12 Figure 4: Effect of peak oil on future supply and demand (ExonMobil, 2004) 2.2.3 Air Quality Climate change is not the only environmental problem of utilizing and burning fossil fuel. Pollution of the air has posed a great threat in different facets such as affecting human health, endangering species, and destruction of ecosystems and habitats. That is mainly due to the emissions of SOx and NOx and particulate matter. As a result, stringent air emission standards have developed leading to heavy taxes on emitters. Emissions from different fuels, - fossil and renewable vary. Emissions of sulphur and nitrogen, as well as net emission of CO2, from biomethane are low compared to many other fuels (figure 7). www.balticbiogasbus.eu 13 2.2.4 Increase of Transportation and Congestion Need for transportation is increasing daily and so does the congestion in traffic. A sustainable solution to this matter is to increase the public transportation. Thereby more people get to travel as well as it becomes more energy efficient. Introduction of new buses that run on biomethane is promising considering this problem. Materializing a pragmatic shift, from private to public transport, is one of the most effective ways to increase energy efficiency and decrease emissions of greenhouse gases. 2.3 Sustainability Requirement for Biofuels Merely being a biofuel is not sufficient to make it a sustainable alternative to fossil fuel. That means it will require qualities to match the economic attractiveness of fossil fuel while being socially and environmentally sustainable. Thus an alternative fuel is supposed to satisfy following requirements to sustainably replace fossil fuel in the transportation sector. Availability: The fuel has to be readily available as when it is needed irrespective of the time and geographical location. It should not have to be backed up by fossil fuels. Economy: Investment and operation should be economical throughout the supply chain of the fuel in order to be commercially attractive. Security of supply: Consistency of the supply has to be ensured. It should not be disturbed due to variations in the production or lack of adequate distribution. Future production potential: Production of the fuel is required to have a significant future potential, preferably at an increasing rate. That is needed to satisfy the growing demand for energy. Social effects of producing the fuel: Is a mandatory factor to be sustainable. It is vital to take care of that production of a biofuel does not deter human welfare such as food production, livelihood and homeland. Environmental effects of producing the fuel: The production of biofuel must not lead to environmental destruction by any means such as deforestation, land use change, net positive CO2 emissions or increased emissions of pollutants, e.g. NO X, SOX or particulate matter. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 14 2.4 Potentials for Biogas Production in Baltic Sea Region It could be seen from table 1 that all the countries, except for Denmark and Finland, have production potentials which are many times larger than their current levels of production. Swedish government is showing a strong interest in producing biogas from the farm industry. 76% of the total biogas production potential has been estimated to come from it. This estimation also assumes that 10 % of the present agricultural lands would be used to grow energy crops for biogas production. Norway, being an oil rich country has not been putting considerable emphasis on bioenergy production at the moment. Biogas production potential in Norway comes mostly from the existing landfills. Germany leads way ahead among all the countries in current level of biogas production as well as in future production potential. This is due to production and high estimations of potential from energy crops, which is not used in production and estimations for the other BSR countries in the same scale Germany has done. The trend for biogas is increasing at a great pace in Germany. The number of plants has grown by 54% from 2,600 to 4,000 in just 4 years from 2005 to 2009 and the installed capacity has grown even faster by 168% from 650 MW to 1740 MW during the same period. However as it is today Germany is mainly producing biogas as a fuel for electricity production (Gunaratne, et al., 2010). Table 1: Biogas Production Potential in the Baltic Sea Region (Gunaratne, et al., 2010) Sweden Installed capacity (KTOE) 79.00 Production potential (KTOE) 892.00 As at year 2009 % Installed capacity/ Potential 8.8 % Norway >38.00 > 221.90 2010 17 % Denmark 87.30 132.40 2009 66% Finland 62.40 87.80 2009 71 % 1 733.60 11 450.20 2009 15 % Poland 51.40 > 429.90 2009 12% Estonia 4.80 > 349.90 2009 1.3 % Latvia 11.30 63.30 2009 18 % Lithuania > 9.30 Very high 2008 Very small Country Germany The situation in Poland is special as a vast unrealized potential exists which can be harnessed with better organization. Out of the 1759 industrial wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and 1471 municipal sewage treatment plants (MSTPs), only 46 MSTPs are involved in biogas production. Livestock industry in the country (cattle, swine and pig farms) also accounts for a significant share of the biogas www.balticbiogasbus.eu 15 potential. Estonia is the country that produces the least amount of biogas in the BSR. Majority of the biogas production potential in the country has been estimated to come from the landfill plants nevertheless a significantly high biogas potential (which is not yet properly estimated) exists with regard to the waste water treatment plants. Latvia is a country which is rich in a variety of biogas production substrates that are spread all over the country. Plans are already on their way to harness the unrealized biogas potential in Latvia. A very high production potential exists with regard to the farms in Lithuania (Gunaratne, et al., 2010). 2.5 Biomethane Market Development – the Swedish Example The market has been steadily increasing for biomethane and natural gas in Sweden over the last decade. A total of 488 GWh of biogas has been upgraded to produce biomethane in Sweden in the year 2009 which is 36% of the total registered biogas production in the country. This is a 38% increase from the 2008 biomethane production. Further it could be observed that this demand increase has taken place while the demand for natural gas remained unchanged (figure 5). Especially the demand in Stockholm has now increased the supply by a significant margin so that compressed biogas has to be delivered by trucks in swap bodies from outside to the city. Under this situation 40% of the vehicle gas sold at Stockholm has had to be met by the natural gas back-ups in the filling stations in 2009. Figure 5: Sold volumes of compressed biogas (CBG) and compressed natural gas (CNG) in Sweden (Source: Swedish Gas Association) www.balticbiogasbus.eu 16 Buses account for the largest demand for biomethane in Sweden. Biomethane market demand according to vehicle sectors is shown in figure 6. The largest consumer in the Stockholm region is Stockholm Public Transport managing the public bus transport system in Stockholm County. Today AB SL has about 2000 buses at service. Having started the first biogas bus in operation in 2004 the fleet has now grown to comprise 230 biogas buses buy the end of 2011 and has extensive plans for further transformation of buses from diesel to biomethane. The owner, The Stockholm City Council, has set up the following environmental goals. 50 % of the bus traffic within AB SL to run on renewable biofuels by 2011 The proposed goal for 2016 is 75% renewable fuels in the bus fleet 100% year 2025 The main driver for this market development has been the decisions taken by the regional public transportation authorities and long term agreements between public transportation authorities and biomethane producers. The drastic development in the market for private cars and taxis has also been a contributing factor to the sudden market development for biomethane. One of the best examples in Sweden is the case in „Taxi Stockholm‟ which has a fleet of 1,500 cars where 500 of them run on biomethane today. The company itself has imposed certain environmental goals as follows to maintain their environmental stewardship in par with the local and national targets. Decreasing the company‟s emissions of fossil fuel derived CO 2 with 70 % from 2005 – to 2012 The percentage of environmentally classified cars was 80% by 31 December 2010 and is predicted to be 95% by 31 December 2011 Several other taxi companies in Stockholm have also got biogas cars in their fleet and have plans to increase the number in the future. The promising fact with taxis is that their road bound life time is so short (3-4 years), so any decisions made on new taxis would be materialized with prompt effect. Private biomethane vehicle market is growing in par with regard to increased awareness and individual environmental concerns. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 17 Figure 6: Number of gas vehicles in Sweden (Source: Swedish Gas Association) New technology in concomitance with the market development is now paving the way to liquefied biogas (LBG) in Sweden. Storage in the liquefied form during distribution provides as much as 3 times more energy per unit volume than the CBG. 3 Factors Influencing Decision Making Three major factors are identified in this report as of prominent importance and high influence in the process of decision making in the implementation of biogas based systems. They are; Climate, environmental and economic benefits of replacing fossil fuels with biogas, Socio-economic forces acting as hindrances, operational and environmental costs and Stakeholder interests. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 18 3.1 Biogas Benefits 3.1.1 Environmental Benefits Reduction of CO2 Emissions As opposed to natural gas or any fossil fuel, biogas is carbon dioxide neutral. Biogas gives the smallest emissions of carbon dioxide and pollutants of all vehicle fuels on the market today. Calculations show that replacing fossil vehicle fuels by biogas reduces the carbon dioxide emission per unit of energy by 90% (Concave, 2006). The benefits can be doubled if biogas is produced from manure, due to the decreased emissions of both methane and carbon dioxide. The reduction, measured in carbon dioxide equivalents, can then be as large as 180 % per unit of energy (Börjesson, 2007). Public transport is a great environmental gain when more citizens choose not to travel by car on behalf of public transportation. Further on, the use of biomethane as fuel in the public transport sector has a large potential for great environmental gains. Reduction of Emissions of Pollutants Biogas is a renewable source of energy and has many advantages as a replacement for petrol and diesel. Biogas is classified as the cleanest fuel on the market where the combustion of biogas only contains two products, carbon dioxide and water vapour. There is no dust, slag or ash in the combustion from biogas. The emissions of carbon monoxide, sulphur compounds, nitrogen oxides, heavy metals and particulate matter are all as low or lower from biomethane then from petrol and diesel when used as fuel in buses (Nordic Biogas Conference, 2010). Figure 7 shows a comparison of a number of fuels with local emission on the y-axis and global effect (CO2) on the x-axis. Biogas compared to other fuels has the lowest emission of pollutants together with the lowest impact on the global effect. Reduction of Methane Emissions Methane is a greenhouse gas. In a 100 year period, its contribution to the greenhouse effect is 21-25 times greater than that of carbon dioxide. One problem with conventional methods of handling and storing manure is that spontaneous emissions of methane can occur. These methane emissions can be avoided by digesting the manure in closed chambers (reactors) where all the methane is collected as biogas for later combustion. It is important in this context that the digested residues are covered, since some methane can still be formed before the bio manure is incorporated in the soil. Nowadays, the methane produced by many landfills is collected, which further reduces losses to the atmosphere. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 19 Figure 7: Environmental emissions of different fuels (Strömberg, Jonas, 2006) 3.1.2 Societal Benefits Locally Produced Biofuel as a Strategic Energy Source Countries in the Baltic Sea region are to a large extent dependent on import of oil based fuel and natural gas as energy supply to their transport sectors. The increased global world demand and the peak oil scenario threaten to drive up fuel prices. Furthermore, the fossil fuel is often imported from politically unstable regions and thus results in an unstable and unpredictable energy supply. In order to reduce the fossil dependence and to secure a future supply of energy and fuel a local or regional biogas chain could be the answer. If the biomethane is produced and utilized in the same regional area, the region could be stepping from oil dependence to a sustainable and locally produced energy supply. Therefore one key biogas benefit is the driving force for energy security and security of energy supply. The biogas market can be acting on a local level where the biogas is produced, distributed and consumed in the same regional area. The municipal organic waste and sewage sludge become feedstock for the biogas facility in such a system. The local farmers can receive bio-fertilizer within the community. Local energy companies, industries and vehicle fleets are provided with energy and vehicle fuel through a gas grid or short distance distribution trucks. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 20 Regional Development and Employment Opportunities Implementation of biogas and biomethane projects involves many local and regional stakeholders, as seen in figure 8. The chain from feedstock to production and utilization can involve the society at every level. Households, farmers, restaurants, waste management companies, local and regional sewage treatment plants, companies that produce biogas and biomethane are all needed. Additionally, companies that distribute the gas and builds filling stations or bus depots are needed in the biogas chain. The regional and municipal leader is also involved in the biogas chain. Every step in the biogas chain needs its own knowledge addition. If a biogas project is about to be started a big variety of workers are needed in order to make up the whole biogas chain. As a consequence new job opportunities are created in a wide range of job types, both locally and regionally. Therefore promotion of biogas bus projects both serves as an investment in local and regional development and additionally as a creation of new job opportunities. Manure and energy crops biogas for industrial heat and power Sewage sludge digestion Organic industrial waste Forest residues liquefied biomethane Household waste upgrading gas grid filling station vehicles industry household Figure 8: Biomethane chain from waste to energy Sustainable Waste Management Modern society produces large quantities of organic waste which must be treated in some way before being recycled back to nature. Examples of such organic www.balticbiogasbus.eu 21 wastes are sludge from municipal waste water treatment plants, kitchen refuse from households and restaurants, and waste water from the food processing industry. Sustainable and efficient management of organic wastes implies that the nutrients these wastes contain (e.g. nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium) should be recycled to arable land as fertilizer (i.e. bio fertilizer) and that the energy the waste contain is used within the society. From this point of view, organic solid wastes and sewage sludge are an important resources that can be exploited in a sustainable way. Utilizing organic wastes in this way also reduces the amount of waste that must be taken care of in some other way. With the help of the biogas system, the production and consumption of food and energy from all sectors of society can be included in a balanced re-circulation system. Integrated solutions for water, energy and waste management will play an important role in the development of sustainable cities. It will also play an important role in the creation of sustainable recycling systems for energy and nutrients between rural and urban areas. Moreover, recycling of nutrients will reduce the import of synthetic fertilizers. Societal Benefits with Public Transport Public transportation is a huge gain for the society when more citizens choose not to travel by car. Public transportation makes a better use of the urban space than a car-dominant society. One example of the urban space gained with public transport is shown in figure 9. The figure describes that 175 m wide road is needed to carry 50,000 people per hour per direction traveling by car, while the space needed to carry the same number of people travelling by bus is 35 m. Figure 9: Public transport alleviates congestion (International Association of Public Transport, 2011) www.balticbiogasbus.eu 22 Additionally, with fewer vehicles running in the cities is less noise as Biogas engines emit less noise than diesel engines do. Another societal benefit with the use of public transportation is higher urban air quality due to less gaseous and particulate emissions. 3.2 Factors Hindering Implementation of Biomethane Projects 3.2.1 Knowledge and Skills Barriers There is a lack of knowledge about pretreatment technology and economy in the use of different substrate for digestion and biogas production. Furthermore, knowledge gap exists when it come to the biogas upgrading process because it requires sophisticated technology as well as operational specific know-how. 3.2.2 Institutional and Administrative Barriers Even though there are no formal barriers to the new entrants in the biogas trade, a large number of barriers can be seen in practice against the establishment of new biogas investments. In countries where many public organizations run pilot scale and experimental scale biogas plants, investors get exhausted and discouraged having required turning into different places looking for information. Some county authorities taking a long time in issuing environmental permits is another hindrance towards new developments in general. Since biogas production has to deal with different kind of organic waste streams, especially in co-digestion, corporation law requires stringent sanitation conditions to be met by production plants. This is an obstacle more specifically applicable to the biogas industry. Ambiguities in the definition of the borders, such as gas production and environmental emissions make the administrative part of biogas development complicated. 3.2.3 Technological Barriers Technology puts sharp limits to how much of the biogas production potential could be utilized. In the Swedish example, even though forest industry and pulp and paper industry generate a very large quantity of substrate for biogas production, sufficient technology has not yet evolved to make it economically viable to produce biomethane from those feedstock sources. Gaps exist in the technology to cope with heavy metals in the digesting substrates. Also the inability so far with the existing technology to reverse the plant nutrients from the biogas production in the agricultural industry has been of great concern for sustainability. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 23 When it comes to the upgrading stage, there are both mature and immature technologies. Technological advancements are necessary in upgrading to increase energy efficiency in the biomethane chain from production to refilling. Many cryogenic upgrading technologies are in the evolving stage and liquefied biomethane production is a new development intended towards obtaining very high purity, nevertheless it incurs a substantial energy intensiveness and investment cost. 3.2.4 Organizational Barriers Barriers in this category have been recognized with regard to two main organizations; state and corporate. State‟s role is to provide a regulatory system that allows biogas/biomethane to compete with fossil fuels on equal terms. The state also has to assume the responsibility of developing basic technology and initiating the development of background for infrastructure. Organizational barriers would usually associate with the economies of scale. Biogas is a resource which is usually produced and consumed within a certain locality. Hence stakeholders are usually local. However at the level of upgrading and distribution of biomethane to refill vehicles, stakeholders often transcend beyond the local boundaries and hence the involvement of stakeholders would become vast and diverse. Especially at upgrading, distribution and refilling stages comprehensive logistics management and administration costs become crucial factors that determine the profitability. Hence economies of scale would have to be ensured at this level of project development. 3.2.5 Political Barriers Some political decisions themselves, taken on behalf of the environment could be deterring the development of biomethane. National target for 10% renewable energy in the transport sector by 2020 is an example. It could be seen as too less ambitious so that it could be met by easily accessible renewable fuels instead of biomethane. Also it does not make extensive provision for the adoption of biomethane in particular. Another main force hindering biomethane at the political level is the economic forces such as tax income from fossil fuel. If decisions were taken to decrease the utilization of fossil fuel by even greater levels than 10%, it would result in great losses of tax income from the fossil fuel. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 24 Despite that an obsolete misinterpretation of renewable fuels as sustainable fuels is evident at certain instances. Being renewable does not necessarily mean sustainable. For example, a renewable fuel such as bio-ethanol already has serious concerns over its social and environmental impacts such as unfair working conditions for propel and deforestation. Bio-diesel which is also a renewable vehicle fuel has issues with regard to the level of percentage CO2 reduction and the fuel quality. Some political decisions could be seen as deliberately neglecting these facts and going for the cheaper and convenient solution in the disguise of fraudulent sustainability. 3.2.6 Market and Financial Barriers Market barrier is arguably the most affecting barrier to the expansion of biogas systems. Biogas industry is often characterized by the low profitability. That is because of the high costs involved at each stage of the production and supply chain; from collecting substrate, produce and upgrade biogas to distribute the fuel to the filing station. Difficulty in finding a good market for the digestion residue is also a problem. Poor profitability distracts the opportunities for financing a prospective investment. Another important issue is that the financial institutions do not have a proper basis for evaluate and assign a market value for biogas plants. This renders the trading so vague and obtaining loans for investment difficult. Inadequate availability of investment support for biogas production is also a significant barrier. Lack of infrastructure to make biogas available to the end user is of significant concern in order to promote biogas. Capacity of upgrading plants has been always inadequate to match the biogas production and extensive network of gas pipelines/delivery vehicles and refilling stations is required to distribute biogas to the end user. 3.3 Economics of biogas Costs related to using biogas as transport fuel can be divided into financial costs and socioeconomic costs. The financial costs can be further divided into investment costs and operational and maintenance costs. There are investment costs in all parts of the supply chain; production, distribution and bus use. Especially distribution costs depend partly on existing infrastructure and location of production site. Already existing pipelines designed for natural gas can help lower this cost significantly, since investing in new pipelines is expensive. Investment in actual buses is still higher for biogas buses than for common diesel buses. However, the difference between the two has decreased as the prevalence of gas buses on the market has increased. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 25 Also operational and maintenance costs are higher for biogas buses than for diesel buses. However, the Stockholm experience shows a clear and steady decrease in these costs for biogas buses. The positive economic development over time is partly due to new gas buses having more efficient engines, but an even more important factor is the improved user knowledge among drivers and service staff, which has been gained throughout the years. Since the popularity of gas buses is on the rise, one can make the assumption that future production will increase and lead to even more efficient engines. Not counting for expenses related to distribution, the financial costs for using biogas as transport fuel are close to those for diesel. However, with increasing scarcity of fossil fuels, biogas will be even more competitive. Already today, biogas producers can guarantee a future price of their product in a way unrivaled by any diesel producer. Even though biogas can compete with diesel already today regarding financial costs, the major advantages are related to the socioeconomic costs. The major part of the socioeconomic costs are environmental costs, which mainly consist of costs for emitting CO2, particulates and NOx. These are generally difficult to quantify in monetary terms. Additionally, the environmental impact of many emissions is mainly local and therefore depends on the quality of the surrounding air. Emissions also often have a direct impact on human health, which means that densely populated areas gain relatively more from changing from diesel to biogas driven buses than sparsely populated areas. The same argument holds for the reduction of noise resulting from shifting to biogas; the impact is bigger the more people are positively affected by it. When taking both financial and environmental costs into account, using biogas as transport fuel stands out as more competitive Total cost comparison between diesel and biogas 1300 SEK/100km 1200 Environmental Infrastructural Operational 1100 1000 900 800 Diesel Biogas than diesel. Apart from the environmental costs, there are other benefits from substituting diesel for biogas, such as improved employment opportunities and increased energy autonomy. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 26 3.4 Procurement rules Procurement in Sweden is regulated by the law on utilities procurement, which is based on EU-legislation. All procurements must comply with the basic principles of equal treatment, non-discrimination, transparency, proportionality and mutual recognition. More specifically, different rules apply depending on the value of the contract to be procured. There is a threshold of EUR 412 000 (year 2010), which determines what options are available for the contracting entity. If the value of the contract is above the threshold, there are three different procedures to choose from; open procedure, restricted procedure and negotiated procedure. For all procedures, the contract must be publicly advertised, but the negotiated procedure provides a possibility to enter into negotiations with providers, which is not possible when using the other two procedures. Thanks to the higher degree of flexibility, the negotiated procedure is popular when the value of the contract is above the threshold. If the value of the contract is below the threshold, there are also three different procedures to choose from; simplified procedure, selective procedure and direct procedure. The first two procedures both require that the contract be advertised, whereas when using the latter procedure, the two parties can enter into contract negotiations directly. However, using the direct procedure requires extraordinary circumstances. Thus, when the value of the contract is below the threshold, in most cases either the simplified or selective procedure is applied. 3.5 Stakeholders in Biogas Chain At foremost, major stakeholder in the biogas chain are found within the chain itself. Waste treatment companies which are providing feedstock is often found on county and municipal level. They provide a feedstock consisting of organic waste, for example, source sorted municipal solid waste. Another feedstock provider is the municipal wastewater treatment plants. The wastewater treatment plants, additionally to their core process, can supply both feedstock and produce biogas. Another important group which provides the biogas chain with feedstock is the farmers. Manure, other residuals waste and energy crops are example of feedstock coming from farmers. Food industry companies and slaughterhouses within production of meat, charcuterie, dairy, ready-cooked food have waste which also is suitable for biogas production. Biogas production plant owners which are not feedstock supplying stakeholders, are often energy companies, private or public, municipal or publicly owned companies involved in either waste or waste water treatment and management or companies whose core product is biogas production. Swedish examples of larger energy companies involved in producing biogas and biogas upgrading is E.ON Gas www.balticbiogasbus.eu 27 Sverige (private) and Göteborg Energi (public). Publicly owned companies are, for example, Stockholm Water AB and Käppalaförbundet. Examples of private owners and operators in the Stockholm region are Scandinavian Biogas and Fuels and Swedish Biogas international. Next link of the biogas chain is distributors. Distribution can be done both in compressed gaseous form and in liquefied form. Stakeholders in this part of the chain are often private companies involved in distribution of fuels and sale to end users. In Stockholm is AGA a good example. The final link in the chain is the filling stations and the end users. Usually biomethane distribution companies and public transportation companies have their own filling stations or act together with established vehicle fuel selling companies such as Statoil and OKQ8. It is equally important to recognize the important stakeholders who are not directly attached to the supply chain. Two significant stakeholder groups are identified in that aspect. First it would be the political stakeholders, i.e. decision makers. The political stakeholders are one of the most influential and important stakeholder groups in a biogas bus project and often act as the final decision makers. Decisions to promote biogas bus project can be made at different political levels, i.e. international, national, and local. A second group is nonetheless of equal significance. That is the general public. General public can be of great interest in a biogas bus project in two main perspectives. That is as employees working in the biogas supply chain as well as the end users. Categorizing further, end users can be users of public transportation, such as AB SL, as well as owners of private biomethane fueled vehicles. Figure 10 depicts the biomethane supply chain, where different stakeholders get involved. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 28 Feedstock Biogas production Up-grading Distribution End users Agricultural waste Sewage sludge Biodigestion CNG Public transport Grid/Pipeline Compressor Private sector Upgrading Municipal waste Energy crop LCNG Pretreatment Liquefaction Bulkstorage Vaporizer Fertilizers Agriculture Figure 10: The biomethane chain, from feedstock to end users www.balticbiogasbus.eu 29 4 Policies and Strategies In this chapter the emphasis is given to policy approaches that can be taken at different stages spanning from International level to local level. Figure 11, below, show the policy landscape where policies are formed at international, national and regional level. These policies outline visions and targets for dimensions as the energy sector, waste management, development of new technology and innovation and new enterprise. Biogas bus projects are related to many different dimensions and the targets emanating from the policies concern different parts of the biogas bus system. In order to reach those targets and objectives relevant strategies have to be implemented. Hence, various political policies, targets and strategies are discussed. Figure 11: Overview of policy and strategy contextual in a biogas system project (Nelson Rojas, HOG Energy, BBB presentation in Riga 2012) www.balticbiogasbus.eu 30 4.1 Policies and long Term Targets at International Level 4.1.1 Policies and Political Targets The most important factors that determine the formation of national strategies are the policies or political targets at both international and national levels. Policies and targets can be formulated to reduce the environmental emissions by a certain quantity, to reduce the energy consumption by a certain sector or to increase the energy efficiency in a certain sectors by a certain point of time in the future. These targets have to be ambitious enough to drive a real change and, most importantly, should be adhered to irrespective of the political. Kyoto Protocol The Kyoto Protocol is the starting point for the development of many of the political targets regarding climate change. Kyoto protocol is the protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aimed at combating global warming. Having adopted in 1997, the protocol came into force in 2005. Thus the countries ratified agreeing to reduce the CO2 emission by 5.2% on average from the levels of 1900 during the 5 year period 2008-2012. The emission reductions do not contain the international aviation and shipping. Nonetheless it requires more percentage contribution from the 37 industrialized countries towards achieving the target. Two Degrees Celsius United Nations‟ Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected in mid 1990s an “upper ceiling” to the extent of global warming in order to avoid devastating climate impacts. That is 2°C maximum increase from the pre industrialization era. The target will thereby mean stabilizing the atmospheric greenhouse gases at a level of 445 – 490 ppm CO2 equivalents. The contribution of CO2 alone at this level would be 400 ppm. The target has been thus set to a CO 2 emission of 1000 billion tons over the period from 2000 to 2050, of which one third has already been emitted. The target expects to limit the probability of exceeding the 2°C threshold to 25% (ScienceDaily, 2011). The IPCC now announces that the 2 degrees limit is too modest and any new climate deal should identify 1.5 °C as the ceiling. Twenty Percent Renewable Fuel (20-20-20) European Union being the supreme international organization in Europe has, through its renewable energy directive, imposed an environmental target of achieving a 20% share of renewable energy in the energy mix of the member states on average by the year 2020. However this figure is to be achieved on average where highly ambitious countries such as Sweden has very high level targets (50% by 2020) while other countries are given with much mild targets considering the level of their economic capability. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 31 Ten Percent Renewable Fuel in Transportation (10-20-20) At the same time the renewable energy directive require specifically the transport sector of all its member states to reach 10% renewable energy share of the total energy consumption in the sector. However, only the road transportation would be subjected to the above requirement. Twenty Percent Energy Efficiency (20-20-20) Another appealing target has been developed by the EU towards achieving its energy and climate goals under the energy efficiency plan, as a part of the Europe 2020 initiative. That is to save 20% of the primary energy consumption compared to projected levels by 2020. Substantial steps have been already taken in the buildings and appliances sectors. The potential therefore exist in order to use the transportation sector as a major contributing factor to the achievement. Carbon Neutral Society and Vehicle Fleet Adoption to Renewable Fuels Despite the targets imposed by international bodies, countries may also develop their own targets at the national level. A profound example would be the Swedish commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by year 2050. Simultaneous to the carbon neutrality target Sweden has also required its entire vehicle fleet to be adopted to run on renewable fuels by year 2030. Waste Management Targets Political targets could also be set as a part of national waste management strategies so that biological treatment, or specifically biogas production, will be indirectly or directly stimulated. In Sweden the national target on biological treatment is set to 35%, meaning that at least 35 % of the food waste must be collected and treated biologically, i.e. digested or composted. Environmental Programs at County Levels A good example on county level environmental program is the stepwise program set by Stockholm County. By it‟s politically declared environmental program the county has reached a higher level of environmental adaption. In congruence, AB SL has their target to operate 50% of their buses on renewable fuels. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 32 4.2 Strategies at International and National Level 4.2.1 Economic Strategies Fiscal Tax, CO2 tax on Fossil Fuel and Tax Exemption or Tax Reduction on Renewable Production cost of fossil fuels is extremely competitive compared to that of renewable fuels. Therefore an imperative economic approach to adopt renewable fuels is to inflict a fiscal levy on fossil fuel and fossil fuel vehicles. Effect of fiscal tax on conventional fuel price in Sweden can be seen in figure 12. Compensation to the environmental damage could be claimed via enacting a CO 2 tax on fossil fuels which creates a direct motivation within the societies towards renewables. Sweden has already embarked on this strategy, which has led to a lot of developments towards using renewable fuels and reducing vehicle emissions. By concurrent tax exemption or deduction renewable fuels could be made competitive. Having the same strategy on vehicles that is adapted for use of fossil fuel only or adapted for renewable fuels can have a direct influence over the market demand for renewables. According to the European Commissions suggested changes in the Energy Tax Directive (2003/96/EG) tax exemption for biomethane may be permitted to 2023. Pollution Tax Due to differences in emissions of pollutants, e.g. carbon monoxide, sulphur compounds, nitrogen oxides and heavy metals, from different fuels their impact on health and costs for society differs. A measure to compensate for the fuel specific pollutions could be a tax or different taxes for specific pollutants. Another measure is to vary the fiscal taxes in relation to the fuel specific pollution. As biomethane is classified as the cleanest fuel on the market, taxes on pollution from fuels would be beneficial for implementation of biomethane. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 33 Figure 12: Diesel price development in Sweden from 2001-2010 (Source: Swedish Petroleum Institute) Investment Support and Soft Loans for Investments in Renewable Fuel Projects Encouragement of investment from different stakeholder, e.g. municipalities, private entrepreneurs, in biogas systems should also be addressed by the decision makers at policy and strategy level. Direct support for investments could be given by the state via sharing the investment. For example has the Swedish state earlier shared 30% of the total capital investment in biogas projects? Arrangements of a proper framework to finance biogas investments via soft loans may also be of immense importance. 4.2.2 Regulatory Framework This refers to the legal and administrative strategies executed with the intention of nurturing biomethane. Regulatory approach of changing a system can have both direct and indirect influences over the system in focus depending on the strategies involved. Regulatory strategies would thus primarily comprise of policies and standards. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 34 Accessibility of Biomethane into Gas Grids A prominent policy that can be formulated towards the betterment of biomethane would be the provision of equal access to gas grids with natural gas. The EU renewable energy directive requires this and it is a major breakthrough in the infrastructure aspect of biogas. That is because lack of an established infrastructure system has deprived biogas from effectively reaching end users and hence being of value. Green Gas Concept A recent development in Sweden concerning the accessibility of biomethane into natural gas grids is the „green gas concept‟. According to this concept biomethane would be traded between two gas grids which are not physically connected. Instead, a customer who is connected to a certain gas grid may order biomethane (green gas) and subsequently gets discounted prices. The gas that he actually consumes should not necessarily be biomethane. It can be a mixture of biomethane and natural gas. It is the contract for biomethane that makes him eligible to get the special price. Therefore if the gas grid does not have enough biomethane in it to cater the customer‟s requirement, the supplier has to ensure that the remaining quantity of biomethane ordered by the particular customer has been injected to a gas grid elsewhere and been accounted for. That is the necessary requirement of this concept. Thereby, biomethane is traded as a virtual commodity between two physically detached gas grids (figure 13). Figure 13: Green gas concept Ratio Demand Another important strategy proposal that been proposed at EU level and by some EU members is to demand a certain renewable energy ratio from the suppliers of vehicle fuel. However, this kind of a measure must ensure that different types of renewable fuels are given an equal opportunity and that the sustainability of the renewable fuel is considered as a prominent factor in deciding its ratio. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 35 Fuel Quality Standards Implementing standards for fuel quality is an important step in this aspect. Similarly to the standards that require certain level of purity in fossil fuels, biofuels too should also be administered. As an example, in Sweden biomethane should contain 97% methane while the sulphur content has to be less than 23 mg/Nm3. Vehicle Emission Standards Standards for emissions from vehicles are as equally important. The standard may allow the vehicles to undergo an emission test and obtain an annual certificate which would be made mandatory in order to enter public roads. Vehicles that fail the test can be allowed for a re-test having done the necessary modifications to the engine. Figure 14 illustrates the development of European emission standards through Euro 1 to Euro 6 - for nitrogen oxides (NOX) and particulate matter (PM) for new vehicles within the region. The performance of a particular bus when run on different fuels has also been shown for the purpose of comparison. Figure 14: Development in European emission standards for buses (Nylund, Nils Olaf, Nordic Biogas Conference, 2010) Having started in 1992, Euro I had very modest standards that allowed about 14.5 g/km of NOX and 0.65 g/km of PM. The latter could not be shown in the figure due to the issue of scale. With the increasing climate impact the thresholds were subsequently revised (obviously becoming more stringent) a number of times over time and Euro V was developed in 2008 which stipulates 3.6 g/km of NO X and 0.035 g/km of PM. Therefore from Euro I to Euro V, it is a four times reduction in the NOX emission and twenty times reduction in the PM emissions in 16 years. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 36 The latest development Euro VI is on the way to be implemented in 2013 which requires far rigorous standards with less than 0.8 g/km NO X emission and 0.02 g/km PM. 4.2.3 Competence Development and Knowledge Dissemination Research and Development In order to establish biomethane systems it is essential to develop the human resource in that field. Adoption of a solid research and development culture is therefore identified as necessary to develop the competencies. In that way innovations can be brought into the existing system. Thereby means and methods would be developed to overcome the technological difficulties the industry is facing today and have a more energy efficient and environmentally sound production and upgrading technologies. Shared Learning Sharing of the knowledge gathered in different projects is as equally important to have a nationwide competency development. Biogas Database Performing nationwide surveys to establish a proper biogas database that has all the substrate, production, upgrading, distribution and refilling information is also of great significance in facilitating a comprehensive knowledge development strategy. Social Awareness Strategies to increase the general social awareness of the environmental problems the world is facing and the role of renewable energy in general and biogas in particular as a part of the solution are also highly important. Several methods such as television advertisements, distributing printed information, public seminars and activities and theme parks. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 37 4.3 Strategies at Regional and Local level 4.3.1 Collective Involvement of Citizens This has to be done at both corporate level and social and individual level in order to successfully implement biogas systems. Corporate Level Local authorities can get into agreements with major transportation organizations in the locality such as bus companies and taxi companies. That is because a subtle change in these corporations can stimulate a significant change in the local system as a majority obtains the services from them. The agreements may therefore be on maintaining a certain level of environmentally friendly vehicle fleet, policies on future vehicle procurements, etc. Individual Level A paradigm shift in a society could also be started by driving individuals to change. Incentives such as discounted rates for environmental selections in travelling, a point scheme that values the extent of environmentally friendly travelling in public transportation, where the points can be redeemed in buying new travel tickets, free parking for eco-cars, etc. Free car parking at the city limit for passengers that use public transportation to enter the city is also a very promising strategy to cut down the environmental impact and encourage the use of public transportation in general. This strategy is been successfully practiced by AB SL for the passenger entering into the Stockholm city. 4.3.2 Centre for Knowledge in Biogas Estimation of Biogas Production and Potential This is a vital starting point in starting a biogas culture in the locality. Accurate estimations on current levels of biogas production would help in developing short term biogas plans. Unrealized biogas production potential is also very important in order to formulate strategies and provisions for long term advancements of the biogas systems. Deploy Biomethane Coordinators The role of coordinators is essential in maintaining the accuracy and consistence of the above strategy of estimating biogas production and potentials. Despite that coordinators may also represent a three-way link between biogas producers, investors and local administration. They would thus act the role of communicators between these three aspects as well. Thereby they would be a key factor that ensures the smooth functioning of the biogas system in the region. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 38 4.3.3 Stakeholder Involvement in Decision Making Consider Interests of All Stakeholders Different stakeholders will have different interests in implementing a biogas system in the region. It is the responsibility of the local authorities to summon all of them to a common forum to obtain their viewpoints as a part of the decision making process. Hence, the different interests should be addressed in the decisions made. Thereby the ownership and loyalty could be built within the stakeholder towards the project. Conflict Management and Prioritization It is also the task of the local authorities to manage any conflicts of interests between stakeholders. Issues will have to be prioritized in making decisions at the discretion of the betterment to the local system. 5 Developing Strategic Action Plans This chapter consists initially of a brief discussion of the prominent factors determining the effectiveness of a strategic action plan from the perspective of a prospective investment project in biogas systems to run public transportation. Then it is followed by a detailed description of the proposed strategic action plan for such an investment project. Figure 15 presents a classification of different factors that influence decision making across the supply chain of a biogas based public transportation system. 5.1 Deterministic Factors of an Effective Strategic Action Plan There are a number of important issues that should be recognized and addressed prior to commence with a public transportation system based on biomethane fuelled buses. Certain elements would have to be satisfied in order to ascertain the sustainability of the adopted biogas supply chain. 5.1.1 Environmental Concerns Production and utilization of biogas and biomethane have several positive environmental effects. One of the most desirable aspects is the closing material and energy loops which signify the industrial analogy of the natural phenomena. Further it provide other positive contributions such as an alternative to the use of non-renewable energy which implies avoided environmental emissions, means of avoiding methane release to the atmosphere via natural waste. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 39 Undesirable aspects of having biomethane systems in an environmental perspective would the possible land use for implementing biogas generation and upgrading plants (this would however be counteracted by saving land otherwise would have to be used as landfills), aesthetic disturbances to the land scape and bad odor. 5.1.2 Economic Aspects Fostering biogas systems would generate an opportunity to turn waste, which has only been an economic burden, to a source of income. New employment opportunities that stimulate the local market would also be of considerable significance. However the initial investment in biogas systems is often high. Therefore accurate planning and budgeting is essential to attract investments. Moreover, supported by monetary intensives such as tax exemptions, investment support and soft loans by the government is significant economical promotions for biomethane and biogas bus projects. Yet, the low operation costs could possibly bring down the pay back periods of the investment to attractive figures. 5.1.3 Reliability and Durability Product quality of the biogas upgrading plants would be of foremost importance with regard to the reliability of biomethane systems. According to the Swedish standards biomethane has to have 97% ±1 purity with respect to the methane content. Ensuring safety along the entire supply chain (biogas production, upgrading, distribution and refilling) is as equally important. Durability is highly significant in biogas systems as in any other investment in order to penetrate into the market as well as to guarantee healthy returns via reduced maintenance cost. Further, long term stable contracts regarding both supply of feedstock and depletion of biomethane to end users together with long turn stable conditions regarding to taxation and regulations is of uttermost significance for the implementation of biomethane and biogas bus projects. 5.1.4 Obligations/Liability Obligation primarily exits with making the stakeholders contended and maintaining consistency of the flow within the biomethane supply chain. Therefore at each stage of the supply chain the interests of different stakeholders will have to be well taken care of. In order to ascertain a regular flow of biomethane from production to refilling, backup systems is necessary to compensate for any foreseeable or unforeseeable shortage at each stage. Natural gas is often used as back-up during shortages in biogas or biomethane supply and delivery trucks or LNG storage facilities should be available. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 40 Biogas production and upgrading Environment Concerns Economic Aspects Reduced methane emissions from feedstock Closing the material and energy loops Odor Methane emission Accessible budget Prospective investors Opportunity cost Government incentives Attractive returns Employment Reliability and Durability Fuel quality Consistency of production Robust technology Distribution of biomethane Energy efficient grid transport Air emissions from truck distribution Fossil fuel usage in truck distribution Distance Quantity Difference of investment in pipeline and trucks Pipeline life time Depreciation of trucks Level of hazardousness Permits Refueling stations Energy consumption in compressing the gas Methane emission Build new or add to existing? Private or public station? Provisions to increase capacity Build new or add to existing? Slow fill or fast fill? Permits Safety in storage Operating biogas buses Reduced usage of fossil fuel Reduced CO2 emissions Reduced emission of pollutants Reduced noise Engine modifications Difference in fuel economy Government incentives Maintenance cost Energy efficiency Fuel efficiency Maintenance Robust technology Permits Obligations/Liability Stakeholders Security of feedstock and biogas supply Safety issues Permits Stakeholders Safety issues Permits Backup system Stakeholders Safety issues Permits CNG or LNG backup Stakeholders Back-up buses Safety issues Permits Figure 15: Factors to be considered in formulating strategies to implement biomethane fuelled buses for urban transportation www.balticbiogasbus.eu 41 5.2 Proposed Strategic Action Plan for Biogas Bus Projects The strategic action plan is concisely illustrated in figure 16. Need Identification Following issues have to be carefully analyzed in order to identify the requirement of having biogas fuelled buses as a part of the solution. Problems and weaknesses in the transportation sector such as congestion and insufficient number of buses Specific problems of conventional fuel based transportation such as climate issues, environmental degradation and health issues due to air emissions Interests of stakeholders of a prospective biogas bus project. The stakeholder analysis done in this report would be used to do a comprehensive study with regard to the particular case. Draft a Preliminary Plan Having accurately identified the needs and possibilities for biogas fuelled public transportation project a preliminary plan could be draft for initial approval. Involvement of stakeholders is crucial at this point. Findings at the previous stage can be used to convince them the necessity of this project. An approach to cater to the needs of all stakeholders would be ideal, which is impractical in most cases. Prioritizing of needs would therefore become necessary. However means of achieving consensus among different parties on the proposed plan is vital. Obtaining approval for the devised plan from the authorities would then follow. Presentation of issues identified before and the means of resolving them through a biogas bus project is necessary at this stage. Data and Information Collection This is one of the most important and the most comprehensive tasks of the project. Data will have to be collected in a number of aspects. Estimating the current biogas production levels and upgrading capacities would be the starting point. Availability of substrates for biogas production and availability of upgrading technologies is needed to be assessed. Estimating the unrealized biogas production and upgrading potential should also be done at this point. It is necessary in planning for future development strategies. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 42 Next step would be to estimate the current capacities of biogas distribution. Access to natural gas grids, availability of biogas injection facilities and the availability of distribution trucks for compressed biogas as well as liquefied biogas have to be accurately estimated. Market Analysis This is a mandatory step before embarking on the project. Development of biomethane demand has to be analyzed following the investigation on production and distribution infrastructure. Thorough analysis on the market development so far and accurate forecasting on the future prospects is necessary in order to determine factors such as economic feasibility and scale of operation. Analysis on the factors that can have a significant influence over the market demand will also have to be analyzed prior to decision making. Some of the prominent factors are; government regulations on promotion of renewable energies, political strategies on sustainability, and public awareness. These factors together with factors hindering development of biogas have been extensively discussed previously in this report. How to deal with these issues are extensively discussed under different strategies for implementation. Revising the preliminary plan Feasibility of the preliminary plan has to be revised with the aid of information and data obtained. Preliminary plan should be revised with the aid of the results in market analysis. Then approval should be obtained for the revised plan. Implementation After developing the revised plan everything have to be prepared for the implementation phase. Adherence to the budgets is very important in biogas projects because they are not as commercially attractive as many other renewable energy projects. Keep pace with the time plans is as equally important so that the cash flows are not affected. This is important because payback periods in biogas projects are long by nature and therefore initial lapses in the project progress will cause undue losses to the investment. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 43 Issues that were not accounted for beforehand can arise during the implementation of the project. Such issues might mandate immediate adjustments in the project implementation. In that case prompt steps will have to be taken to revise the project progress and approval shall be taken as necessary for any modifications. Post implementation issues Consequences of this type of a project could be expected as well as unforeseen. Preparation to deal with these issues is necessary as much as the implementation does. Inconsistency along the supply chain is the most usual problem of operating biogas systems. Seasonal variations of the availability of the substrates are a common problem and therefore should have addressed during the planning stage. Interruptions in the distribution systems can be unforeseen. Therefore having accurate backup systems and adequate contingency plans is essential to ensure the consistent supply of the fuel for buses. Future Expansions Planning for future expansions would require substantial inputs from the prior studies; especially with regard to the production potential of biomethane and the market analysis. Furthermore, adequate provisions shall be allocated in the planning budgets for prospective expansions of the projects in the future. Such expansion projects will thus start over with the very strategic plan, hence closing the loop. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 44 Figure 16: Schematic description of the proposed strategic action plan www.balticbiogasbus.eu 45 6 Recommendations 6.1 Recommended Strategies 6.1.1 General recommendations: Use the best available technique of today, don‟t wait for the “perfect” solution to come. Follow the development of new technical solutions and engage in projects and/or procurements to help new solute on to develop. Long term contracts that make it possible for producers to invest in biogas production. Success factor: Important to increase the knowledge of biogas as a renewable fuel. 6.1.2 Economic Strategies The economic strategies for promotion of biogas and biogas bus implementation described in chapter 4 may all be of importance. One of the strongest trigger for biogas bus projects are the impact of fossil fuel on climate change. Furthermore, the key factor that separates renewable fuels from fossil fuels is the CO 2 neutrality or the ability to significantly reduce CO2 emissions. Consequently, the most important economical measure or strategy is the implementation of CO2 tax on fossil fuel. In order to further promote renewable fuels and strengthen its competitive power fiscal tax on fossil fuels in combination with tax exemption or tax deduction for renewable is identified as an effective and important strategy. Investment support and soft loans for investors in biogas project have I Sweden been proven to be an effective strategy for promotion of biogas and biomethane production and biogas bus projects. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 46 6.1.3 Regulatory Framework Considering the focus of the Baltic Biogas Bus project three strategies have been identified as of prime significance among the many identified earlier in this report. That is; Establishing adequate vehicle emission standards. Ensuring the accessibility of biomethane into natural gas grids. Adopting the green gas concept. Establishing stringent emission standards for vehicles that fossil fuels can hardly meet would inevitably demand cleaner fuels. Providing equal access for biomethane in gas grids is vital in ensuring an economical and adequate supply of the fuel. Nurturing the green gas concept that facilitates virtual trading of the fuel between physically detached gas grids makes buying biomethane a smooth process for the customer and hence makes it easy to penetrate into the market and develop an established market niche. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 47 7 References Börjesson, 2007. Bioenergi från jordbruket – en växande resurs, SOU 2007:36. [Lund Institute of Technology] Börjesson, P., 2007. Bioenergi från jordbruket – en växande resurs. Tekniska Högskola. SOU 2007:36. Lunds Concave, 2006. Well-to-wheels analyses of future automotive fuels and poewrtrains in the European context. WELL-to-TANK report, version 2b. European Comission, Joint Research Centre. Europe‟s Energy Portal, 2011. EU Energy trends to 2030. P.24. [Online] Available at: http://www.energy.eu/publications/Energy-trends_to_2030.php [Accessed 29 September 2011]. European Commission Eurostat, 2011. Transport energy consumption and emissions, 2004. [Online] Available at: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php?title=File:Trans port_energy_consumption_and_emissions,_2004.PNG&filetimestamp=200904301000 43 [Accessed 27 September 2011]. European Commission, 2011. EU Energy in Figures 2010, CO2 Emissions by Sector. [Online] Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/energy/publications/doc/statistics/ext_co2_emissions_by_se ctor.pdf [Accessed:12-10-2011] European Environment Agency, 2011 (a). Primary energy consumption in the EU27, 1990-2008. [Online] Available at: http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-andmaps/figures/primary-energy-consumption-by-fuel-1 [Accessed 28 September 2011]. European Environment Agency, 2011 (b). Total primary energy consumption by energy source in 2008, EU-27. [Online] Available at: http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/primary-energy-consumptionby-fuel-1 [Accessed 28 September 2011]. European Union Committee, 2008. 27th Report of Session 2007-08. The EU’s target for Renewable Energy: 20% by 2020. Volume 1. (Authority of the House of Lords) London ExonMobil, 2004. A report on Energy Trends, Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Alternative Energy. Available at: http://esd.lbl.gov/SECUREarth/presentations/Energy_Brochure.pdf [Accessed: 15-10-2011]. Gunaratne D.A.T, et al., 2010. Biogas infrastructure in the Baltic Sea Region. Department of Industrial Ecology, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 48 International Association of Public Transport, 2011. Public transport alleviates congestion. [Online] Available at: http://www.uitp.org/advocacy/pdf/alleviates_congestion.pdf [Accessed: 05 October 2011] Rojas, N. 2012. The impact of differences in the regulation and taxation on biogas. Baltic Biogas Buses conference in Riga, February 2012. ScienceDaily, 2011. Climate Change: Halving Carbon Dioxide Emissions By 2050 Could Stabilize Global Warming. [Online] Available at: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090502092019.htm [Accessed: 12-10-2011]. www.balticbiogasbus.eu 49
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