www.madariaga.org
How to Switch
from Jobless Growth
to Growthless Jobs?
Madariaga Report – 21 February 2012
Threatened by the constraints of austerity and the fears of a new credit crunch,
the European economy seems unlikely to robustly recover over the next decade.
In an era of growing unemployment, the consensus of the younger generations
for European integration – increasingly perceived as being at odds with social
justice and the European social model – is under growing strain. Is there room
for further macroeconomic stimulus? If not, what kind of new paradigms should
be found for structural reforms?
A Citizen's Controversy with
Stefano Scarpetta
Deputy Director for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, OECD.
Joep Konings
Professor at the Faculty of Business and Economics, Catholic University Leuven.
Moderated by:
Pierre Defraigne
Executive Director, Madariaga – College of Europe Foundation.
Reporter: Chiara Galluccio
14, Avenue de la Joyeuse Entrée
B-1040, Brussels, Belgium
Tel: +32 2 209 62 10
E-mail: [email protected]
Launching the debate, Pierre Defraigne remarked
that since Europe will be faced with a zero growth
scenario for decades, the need to effectively fight
against joblessness in a context of huge private and
public debts and of the deficit of eurozone
governance is the most challenging issue the EU has
to face.
***
Stefano
Scarpetta
began by analysing the
impact of the financial
and economic crisis on
the labour market of
OECD countries1 as
well as the countries’
responses. The labour
markets of the OECD
countries reacted very
differently
to
the
financial and economic
crisis, with different
adjustment patterns in
the
recession
and
subsequent recovery. The different adjustment
patterns were observable across OECD countries as
well as within the EU. For instance, while the output
decline in Spain was accompanied by large job
losses, in Germany much of the adjustment took the
form of a reduction in working hours; actually,
employment in Germany slightly increased even
during the recession. Other countries privileged
wage adjustments, or followed a mixed policy, such
as Canada, based on reducing both worked hours
(labour input) and employment (jobs reduction).
The feeble recovery from the 2008-09 recession
had a limited impact on job creation in many
OECD countries, as recorded by the OECD
unemployment rate - 8.2% in December 2011 -,
which is still very close to its historical peak.
Moreover, there is a serious risk that what was
initially a cyclical increase in unemployment will
become structural: the, the share of long-term
1
List of OECD countries:
www.oecd.org/document/58/0,2340,en_2649_201185_1889
402_1_1_1_1,00.html.
1
unemployment (meaning people unemployed for 12
months or more) is increasing rapidly, with
inevitable consequences in terms of human capital
deterioration and discouragement. Scarpetta
explained that some of the very long-term
unemployed workers are at risk of indefinitely
dropping out of the labour market because of their
skills deterioration and/or the discouraging feelings
that derive from inactivity. In many OECD
countries, a large portion of the long-term
unemployed have been out of a job for one-two
years and in many case they still are.
Another set of alarming data concerns rising youth
unemployment, with rates three to four times higher
than the adult unemployment rates. Indeed, the
analysis of the job losses among different groups –
classified by gender, age, education and work status
– shows that the youth have been hardest hit during
the crisis, with an average job loss rate calculated
over the 2008-2011 period of 13.3% in the EU15
and of 11.4% in the United Sates. Temporary,
precarious and atypical workers have also been
strongly hit by the crisis, with an average job loss
rate of 2.4% in the EU15 compared to 0.6% for selfemployed workers. Given the rather gloom shortterm macroeconomic projections, the outlook for the
labour market is not very encouraging; in a number
of EU countries, in particular, it is difficult to expect
significant improvement in the labour market
before 2013.
Scarpetta went on by explaining that, despite the fact
that a stumbling economic recovery makes policy
choices arduous and complex – since governments
have to tackle budget deficits and, simultaneously,
sustain the recovery and provide adequate support to
the increasing numbers of the unemployed –, some
key actions can be undertaken in order to kick start a
virtuous circle of stronger and sustained economic
growth and job creation.
Firstly, labour market reforms are extremely
urgent, especially in countries such as Greece,
Portugal, Spain and Italy. Clearly, priorities vary
from country to country, but there are some common
policy challenges. In the short run, labour market
demand can be stimulated in the through “net
hiring subsidies” which support companies that
| Madariaga Report – How to Switch from Jobless Growth to Growthless Jobs? (21 Feb 2012)
“...some key actions can
be undertaken in order
to kick start a virtuous
circle of stronger and
sustained economic
growth and job
creation...”
decide to expand their workforce. This costeffective tool could boost job creation in the shortrun, while over the medium- and long-term,
structural reforms should promote the
adaptability of labour markets, which implies
ensuring effective protection of workers and
encouraging firms to hire formally and to invest in
human capital. Moreover, it is necessary to tackle
different dualisms such as temporary versus
permanent jobs, youth versus older workers, etc.
Secondly, it is vital to create adequate safety nets
focused on vulnerable groups, such as the longterm unemployed, and conditioned by active job
seeking. To effectively support the integration of the
unemployed and the inactive into the productive
system, he explained that these networks should be
based on a tight connection between social
assistance on the one hand, and public work
recruitment and training offices on the other hand. In
order to minimise benefit dependency it is crucial to
support job seeking and to prevent the risk of
poverty and exclusion, and that is the reason why
safety nets should be combined with enforced jobseeker requirements and re-employment services.
To activate job seekers – both unemployed and
inactive –, access to safety nets has increasingly
been made conditional on active job seeking
based on the “mutual obligations” principle.
Scarpetta explained that one of the main difficulties
consists in identifying effective re-employment
programmes, especially for long-term jobless
people. However, job-search assistance programmes
tend to be more cost-effective, and well-tailored
training programmes to local and national labour
2
market needs can also be very useful. Some
countries have made participation in training and
other job support programmes compulsory after a
certain period of job seeking.
Finally, Scarpetta insisted on human capital
investment
as
the
key
to
promoting
employability, and it should be based on a “lifecycle” approach. This implies promoting early
childhood education and care, improving the quality
of learning provisions and securing equality of
access. It is also necessary to strengthen vocational
education routes through, for instance, dual
schooling systems and to facilitate school-to-work
transitions e.g. via apprenticeships. Last but not
least, skills mismatches – which already existed
before the crisis but which have been deeply
aggravated – must be tackled by investing in
technical and scientific education, and by expanding
skill investments in mid-career.
***
Joep Konings firstly
analysed some stylised
facts related to the crisis
and
unemployment
trends. During the crisis,
the negative correlation
between GDP growth
and unemployment –
demonstrated by Okun’s
law2 – was particularly
strong in the EU15 as
well as in the United
States. However, when
GDP started to grow again in late 2009, the
employment rate did not automatically follow GDP
trends, and increased slowly and gradually.
2
Okun’s law captures the relationship between
unemployment and output. It is a statistical relationship that
has received strong empirical support for a broad cross
section of countries. As originally estimated by Arthur
Okun, it has the following simple form: change in
unemployment rate = α – β × change in real output
Here α (alpha) is an intercept coefficient, and β (beta) is the
elasticity of the unemployment rate with respect to output.
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, 2010
(www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/pdf/text.pdf).
| Madariaga Report – How to Switch from Jobless Growth to Growthless Jobs? (21 Feb 2012)
“During the crisis, the
negative correlation
between GDP growth
and unemployment was
particularly strong in
the EU15 as well as in
the United States...”
The beta indicator, which captures the elasticity of
the unemployment rate with regard to output over
time3, shows that there are significant differences
among the EU countries. Indeed, while in Ireland
there is a weak correlation between unemployment
and output in Germany this correlation is very
strong. These divergences are mainly due to
institutional differences.
Konings then showed how the crisis also revealed
skills mismatches in some EU Member States. The
Beveridge curve, which graphically represents the
relation between unemployment rates and job
vacancy
rates4,
demonstrates
that
during
recessionary periods characterised by high
unemployment rates open vacancies are low. But
during the crisis, in some countries such as Belgium,
both job vacancies and unemployment rates were
high. This apparent paradox is explained both by a
discrepancy between labour demand and available
skills – this mismatch can be addressed through
education reforms –, and by labour mobility
obstacles.
Focusing on employment reallocation, he showed
that from 2008 to 2011 in the EU15, the huge losses
of industrial manufacturing jobs were widely
compensated by an important increase of the job rate
in the public services sector. This trend, in his
opinion, may put at risk both private initiative
and the efficiency of the public sector.
3
For more information, see:
www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/pdf/c3.pdf.
4
Job vacancy rates represent the number of unfilled jobs
expressed as a proportion of the labour force.
3
Konings went on to explain the ‘jobless growth’
phenomena through various variables. He firstly
focused on the institutional dimension. Labour
market rigidity, characterised by excessively high
employment protection, reduces the elasticity of
the unemployment rate with respect to output (a
beta within Okun’s law). And, while temporary
work contracts increase the beta, firms can
anticipate stricter regulation with regard to
temporary work, and, consequently, will refrain
from hiring. He added that in order to increase job
seeker effectiveness, the duration of unemployment
benefits should be decreased.
Secondly, he pointed out that crisis measures have
induced labour hoarding aimed at guaranteeing
that skilled and experienced workers are available
within the firm after the negative down turn. But
keeping extra workers that are not needed with
respect to the lowest level of output, implies a nonefficient resource allocation which subsequently
slows down the economic recovery.
With respect to public versus private employment,
not only is the former trumping the latter – with
potentially serious consequences for the overall
efficiency of the economic system – but the public
service increase implies more future taxes, with a
negative impact on productive investments.
Finally, he remarked that because of the credit
squeeze firms are more prudent than proactive, and
they are adjusting to the squeeze by reducing the
number of available working hours.
Konings then proposed some policy measures to
reverse current trends, such as labour market
reforms in OECD countries which are still
characterised by huge rigidities in order to rapidly
adapt to fluctuations and changes in economic and
society environments; the implementation of
austerity measures, which would lead to increased
competitiveness (i.e. public employment replaced by
private initiative); the establishment of on-the-job
training, which improves productivity of both
workers and firms and which enhances internal
flexibility and employability; and, the guarantee of
access to finance to avoid credit squeezes, which
implies both access to education through loans –
| Madariaga Report – How to Switch from Jobless Growth to Growthless Jobs? (21 Feb 2012)
such as in the UK - and to focus on innovative firms
as priorities.
reform EU industrial policy
innovation and green projects.
He insisted on the fact that economic growth is a
precondition for job creation and to guarantee
the supply of public services, especially health care
services. In this regard, he underlined three main
actions that should be undertaken to tackle the
‘growthless jobs’ phenomena.
The EU’s industrial policy should also take into
account industrial back-shoring, which is a reality
today since the wage cost issue is emerging in China
and is eroding the country’s comparative advantage
based on cheap labour. This can have a positive
impact on the EU’s regional dimension through
agglomeration economies, given that clustering
creates value added not only for the firm which
enters the cluster, but for all the firms agglomerated
thanks to knowledge spill-overs, supplier linkages,
etc. Human capital being the only “natural” resource
abundantly available in Europe, the European skills
agenda should be based on effective human capital
investment (education and training).
Firstly, the enforcement of eurozone governance.
For Konings this would imply a move towards
Eurobonds (despite the reluctance of German
politicians) or, more precisely, towards a European
financing agency whose creation would avoid the
need to revise EU Treaties. This will immediately
generate trust and stability in the eurozone and, as a
consequence, in the EU as a whole. Assuring
liquidity to systemic banks would allow them to
provide the required credit to households and firms –
a vital factor in supporting real economic growth.
This would also imply a consolidation pact in which
countries such as Germany and the Netherlands
would follow expansionary policies, rather than
austerity trajectories, while countries such as Italy,
Greece or Belgium would engage in consolidation
strategies since this is a crucial prerequisite to
enhance their competitiveness and, consequently,
stimulate their economic recovery.
promoting
Finally, labour market deregulation is a
fundamental condition for increasing employment
rates. Indeed, a flexible labour market would boost
competitiveness (a higher beta within Okun’s
equation), which would stimulate growth and, in
turn, would lead to job creation.
***
Second, the European growth agenda. According
to Konings, the two main focus areas should be a
smart industrial economic policy and on an EU
skills agenda. Concerning industrial policy, he
specified that a green economy along with the
potential green job growth will not develop by itself
unless incentives, sanctions and regulation are
established by governments. Besides, emerging
economies – such as China – are using active
industrial policies and they also stimulate the
development of their industries through subsidies,
resulting in an unfair level playing field at the
international level. In that context, the EU should
not be naive, and thus should enforce its antidumping legislation. The temporary protection
provided by anti-dumping duty resources – which
has economically beneficial effects compared to
permanent protection – should therefore be used to
4
by
| Madariaga Report – How to Switch from Jobless Growth to Growthless Jobs? (21 Feb 2012)
DISCUSSION
Getting the discussion started, Pierre Defraigne
noted that if each EU Member State undertakes a
re-industrialisation policy separately, without any
kind of coordination mechanism, this would
seriously put at risk the integrity of the Single
Market (de-liberalisation), which would worsen
the already very critical European growth and
employment situation. Moreover, he remarked
how tax competition among EU Member States
undermines Europe’s unity and slows down the
economic recovery process since it provokes a
significant distortion of efficient resource
allocation. During the discussion, the audience
raised key issues related to the role of external
trade to boost growth and jobs, the link between
fiscal facilitations and job creation (e.g. the
Netherlands), and the demographic dimension –
especially with regard to the decreasing active
population due to the ageing phenomena, and the
correlated matter of financing pensions.
Regarding industrial policy and tax competition,
Joep Konings explained that tax competition does
not necessarily lead to industrial re-localisation, as
demonstrated by Paul Krugman and Richard
Baldwin. The clustering factor is far more
relevant compared to tax competition in
influencing firms’ strategies. For example, in
Switzerland, where each canton can impose its own
taxes, the cantons with the higher corporate tax rates
coincide with the areas with the highest density of
firms. In his opinion, harmonisation at the European
level should focus on the tax base – in order to
increase transparency – rather than on tax rates. An
effective industrial policy does not call for subsidies,
but for sound regulation. In the framework of Green
economy, for instance, regulation on recycling
generated completely new industries and jobs.
Clearly, international trade plays a very
important role in boosting growth and jobs. This
is, according to the Konings, the reason why the EU
should enforce its action against unfair
competition (dumping and subsidies) through
temporary protection measures that would allow
5
supporting technological restructuring of the EU
industrial system based on green economy, in order
to enhance European international competitiveness.
The EU’s industrial policy should be decentralised at the regional level since evidence
proves that de-centralisation is far more effective in
terms of productivity.
Focusing on the link between taxation and jobs,
Konings asserted that, on the one hand, higher taxes
are detrimental to employment; indeed, he argued
that high corporate tax rates – especially for
multinational firms – are a disincentive for longterm investments, which has a negative impact on
growth, and consequently on job creation. On the
other hand, he specified that some taxes are
obviously needed in order to finance
infrastructures that are a crucial element in
stimulating investment.
In Konings’ opinion, current and future demographic
trends in Europe – which point to an ageing
population and a decreasing work force - show that
the EU will need to attract more labour immigrants
in order to be able to fuel its economic growth.
According to Stefano Scarpetta, the current crisis
is triggering structural reform of the public
sector. As evidence shows, some countries have
already started significant reforms in public
administration aimed at enhancing the efficiency of
the public service sector.
Furthermore, he said that uniform and better rules
rather than the de-regulation of European goods
and services markets are urgently needed,
especially concerning the services sector. Action has
been undertaken to remove the persistent barriers to
entry imposed on new firms, but what is urgent
needed now is to address barriers to expansion of
successful firms, which are related to access to
credit, access to technology, as well as sound labour
regulations. Scarpetta thinks that the solution to
these central issues is not only to act upstream
through, for instance, regulations that allow setting
up a business in one day – as is the case in Portugal
or Italy – but to undertake radical structural reforms.
He also highlighted that in order to foster the
economic recovery and job creation, labour
| Madariaga Report – How to Switch from Jobless Growth to Growthless Jobs? (21 Feb 2012)
market reforms should be accompanied by access
to credit, in particular for small and medium size
enterprises. Obviously, labour market reforms do
not lead to a "one size fits all" solution. The labour
market clearly needs to be more flexible, argued
Scarpetta, but reforms should also aim at creating
stable and sustainable jobs, as well as increasing
productivity levels through a better allocation of
human resources.
Finally, addressing the labour market de-regulation
process Scarpetta specified that no “one size fits all”
solution exists, and that labour market flexibility
has often resulted in precarious jobs, with the
expansion of fixed-term and involuntary parttime jobs. This is conducive neither to a stable and
sustainable employment pattern nor to a better
allocation of human resources.
With respect to tax policy, he insisted on the fact
what matters is not only the overall level of
taxation, but rather tax composition. Indeed, a tax
system more conducive to growth and potentially to
job creation should address the questions such as the
right balance between direct and indirect taxation
and should aim at reducing taxes on labour use.
Introducing the second round of questions,
Defraigne raised the political and social issue of
increasing inequalities. These inequalities not
only exist between labour and capital revenue –
the latter being much more mobile than the
former, but also within the labour category
(skilled versus unskilled workers) and within
capital in terms of size (MNCs versus SMEs). In
other words, Defraigne asked how can we ensure
a flexible labour market and simultaneously
address the phenomenon of the "working poor"?
A participant noted that the debate in the EU was
exclusively focused on economic growth, despite
the fact that the causality link between growth and
jobs creation has never been proved. Indeed, not
only is "never-ending growth" a myth, but it is
also totally unsustainable from an economic
standpoint. The audience also raised the question
of the potentially negative impact of the Fiscal
Compact in terms of economic stagnation and
unemployment rises.
Scarpetta agreed with Konings on the fact that green
economy is a sector that, at this stage, will not
evolve by itself. Clearly, green investment in
renewable energies can be encouraged, and the EU
has elaborated a plan for renewable energy to make
up 20% of the total EU energy mix by 20205. This
sector can potentially create two million jobs. But
the green economy will not solve EU labour
market problems, because it will both imply job
creation and job losses. Scarpetta pointed out that
the OECD has elaborated some simulations using its
general equilibrium models which suggest that,
potentially, the transition to a green economy will
not lead to large job creation. Policies aimed at
reducing green house gas emissions - for example,
by provoking a change in relative prices - will lead
to an increase in energy prices which is likely to
have a negative effect on GDP growth, and,
consequently, a potentially negative impact on
employment. So, a transition to green growth is
vital but will not generate per se million of jobs;
however promoting such transition will involve
large reallocation of labour and policy should be
in place to promote this process and support the
affected workers.
5
For more information, see: http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/site/en/com/2006/com2006_0848
en01.pdf.
6
Stefano Scarpetta firstly reminded the audience
that rising inequalities is one of the main topics the
OECD is working on, as testified by the Report
“Divided We Stand: Why Inequalities Keeps
Rising”, published on December 2011. The study
has shown that inequalities – in terms of the GDP
per capita divide – have not only been on the rise
for 20 years among OECD countries, but that this
phenomena also includes some of the countries –
e.g.
the Nordic
countries,
traditionally
characterised by strong redistribution policies.
Concerning growthless jobs, continued Scarpetta,
some of the reforms undertaken over the past decade
have contributed to make the labour market more
inclusive by bringing more under-represented
workers into the market. However, this has been
| Madariaga Report – How to Switch from Jobless Growth to Growthless Jobs? (21 Feb 2012)
achieved in some countries via the extension of
atypical jobs – temporary jobs for example. The
challenge today, argued Scarpetta, is to find a way to
combine inclusiveness with the quality of jobs.
Concluding, he then underlined that tax and
transfer systems have not been able to fully
compensate for the increase in market income
inequality trends – e.g. in the US, 1% of the richest
portion of the population holds 17% of the total
national income, and 0.1% hold 7%. To tackle this
issue, progressive taxation is not enough and other
types of taxation should be elaborated, including
property taxes and a fight against tax evasion.
Addressing the growthless jobs question, Joep
Konings explained that currently economists are
trying to better define the notion of growth by
moving away from the simplistic value added
growth concept by integrating quality indicators,
such as the happiness dimension. That said, he
insisted on the fact that economic growth is the
major source of social progress and has so far
proved to be effective, as testified by the fact that,
for example, a much larger portion of the population
has access to higher education compared to 15 years
ago thanks to sustained growth rates.
***
RELATED REPORTS
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meilleure solution à la
détérioration des
finances publiques?
28 February 2011
With Henri Sterdyniak,
Director of the Economics
of Globalisation
Department, OFCE, and
André Sapir, Senior Fellow, Bruegel.
Regarding rising inequalities, he claimed that greater
unequal distribution of wealth at the global level is
simply false. Indeed, inequalities among countries
and regions have decreased globally, as testified
by the diminishing gap between China and the
Western countries, even if, he specified, inequalities
have increased within countries.
***
He also clarified the fact that moving towards a
more technology-oriented society inevitably
means a relative decline of the labour share
compared to capital share within the economic
system. This trend began with the industrial
revolution, and was strengthened by the ICT
revolution.
23 February 2011
Finally, with respect to the fiscal consolidation pact6
Konings said that the timing for the
6
The Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance was
signed by twenty-five Member States on 2 March 2012. For
7
implementation of austerity measures, as well as
policy orientations, should be diversified on the
basis of the different economic situations
characterising each Member State. From this
perspective, countries such as Germany or the
Netherlands should engage in fiscal expansionary
policies while other countries, such as Spain,
Portugal or Italy, should strictly implement austerity
measures.
The EU/IMF Rescue
Packages: An "Attack
on Social Europe" or a
Necessary Step to
Restore Confidence?
With Philippe de Buck,
Secretary General of
Business Europe, and John
Monks, General Secretary of the European Trade
Union Confederation (ETUC).
***
more information, see: http://europeancouncil.europa.eu/media/639235/st00tscg26_en12.pdf.
| Madariaga Report – How to Switch from Jobless Growth to Growthless Jobs? (21 Feb 2012)
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