Evaluation, Measurement and Verification of EE Programs: The EMV Challenge NGA’s Policy Academy on State Building Efficiency Retrofit Programs Brian T. Castelli Executive Vice President, Programs & Development January 2010 What is the Alliance to Save Energy? The Alliance to Save Energy promotes energy efficiency worldwide to achieve a healthier economy, a cleaner environment and greater energy security. - Non‐profit organization headquartered in U.S.; operations world‐wide - Led by Senator Mark Pryor (D‐Ark.) and Peter Darbee, President and CEO of Pacific Gas and Electric - Includes 10 Members of Congress – Bi‐Cameral; Bi‐Partisan - Also includes environmental, consumer, and trade associations heads, state and local policy makers, corporate executives - More than 170 Associate Members Need EM&V to document and ensure energy savings and associated goals (e.g., emissions avoidance). Need EM&V with growing scrutiny and large amounts of money at stake. EM&V challenge is how to estimate energy not consumed that would have been otherwise—the counterfactual. EM&V challenges - Free riders—EE measures may be implemented even w/o program; did program cause savings? - Spillover—program may induce EE by those not in the program (additional EE). - Interactions of EE measures (e.g., lighting and HVAC) - Programs may interact or indirectly induce EE. - Baseline adjustment—did EE measures save the energy or mild weather or reduced production? Were savings “additional” or “business‐as‐usual” improvements in performance? EM&V challenges (continued) - Cost of EM&V • • • Cheaper to use “deemed savings” (assumed values) than actually measure energy use for standardized projects. Should assure proper installation and maintenance of EE measures. Customized projects more complicated. - Varying assumptions, definitions, methodologies • • E.g., CFLs for incandescent bulbs—can assume wattage savings, hours of use, life of lamps. But existing state manuals vary greatly in these assumptions and, thus, in savings calculated for a given project. 15W CFL installed in a living room, with a rated lifetime of 10,000 hours CT How equivalent incandescent wattage is calculated PA VT CA WI (ACES MA (draft as of Deemed 10/09) Savings Review, June 2008) Energy Star CO CFL W + 51.9 3.4 x CFL wattage 51.9 36 2.3 2.96 Not given 6 Not given 6482.4 3.4 x CFL wattage Measured CFL W + 48.7 3.53 x CFL wattage 4 x CFL wattage Assumption that 13‐16W CFLs replace 60W incandescent Change in Wattage 36 varies depending on individual measures 48.7 37.95 45 45 Hours/day 2.96 3 3.4 2.18 3 2.37 Life in years 5.25 6.4 6.4 6.6 9.13 7 Life in Hours 5672.1 7008 7942.4 5251.62 9997.35 6048 EM&V challenges (continued) - Technical issues of measurement—error, bias, sampling, … Some schools of thought on EM&V - EM&V imperfect but getting better - Unreliable, can’t be improved - EM&V imperfect but that’s so for other program areas too (health, crime, poverty reduction, education, defense)—don’t hold to higher standard - Imperfect, but no choice, have to do more Process important for transparency and credibility - EERS compliance and performance‐based compensation creates vested interests. - Stakeholders questioning/debating EM&V assumptions, data, methods can enhance transparency. - Transparency can enhance credibility of EE programs if questions and criticisms addressed and EM&V improved. - If not, credibility of EE programs may be compromised. Toward regional and national protocols and standards - Growing scope of EERS and EE in RES. - Potential trading of ESCs directly or as components of RES or as carbon credits and offsets. - Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnership (NEEP)— investigating regional protocol development. - North American Energy Standards Board (NAESB)— tech standards - National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency (NAPEE)— evaluating if it has a role in protocol development To improve credibility and reliability of EM&V government and stakeholders should: - Use processes for EM&V design and review that promote - transparency and incite debate on methods, data, assumptions, Improve EM&V methods, data, and assumptions, Increase consistency of methods and assumptions between regions and program types, Assure evaluation professional competency and integrity,* Manage stakeholder expectations. *Efficiency Valuation Organization and Association of Energy Engineers developed relevant training and credential based on the Int’l Performance M&V Protocol (IPMVP). IPMVP provides discussion and guidance on how to quantify savings, including: - Normalizing savings - Interactive effects - Data sources, preparation and missing data - Statistical bias - Independent verification - Building simulation Allows flexibility, while sticking to “principles of accuracy, completeness, conservativeness, consistency, relevance and transparency” Doesn’t give answers, but lists the questions that need to be asked Highlight issues Inform and engage key stakeholders Provide technical input/support - On NAESB, NEEP, NAPEE workgroups Cross fertilizations across initiatives Application to policy Alliance to Save Energy 202‐857‐0666 www.ase.org