What is the cost of disease?
John S Richardson
Sponsored by Garth Partnership
South-east Scotland Pig Discussion Group 2011
The cost of disease – topics to be covered
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Profit – what is it, and what factors affect it?
Cost of disease – other people’s views
Herd performance - QMS and UK
Value of performance
What are marginal pigs worth?
Cost of disease methodology – Parvovirus, EP & PRDC
How to control PRDC (Porcine Respiratory Disease Complex)
Conclusions
Reasons for keeping pigs?
 Because we like them
 Because we always have
 They fit the farming system
 There is an empty building to fill
 As a commercial business … if so
 ………are you keeping pigs
or are the pigs keeping you?
 Profit = Net Output – Total Costs (COP)
/ kg
/ pig
/ sow
/ herd
Number of pigs
x
Weight of pigs
x
£ / Kg @ base price
x
Quality premium
x
Frequency of output
&
Valuation changes
Variable Costs
76% p/ kg d wt
Feed
59%
85p
Vet & Medicines 2.0
2.9
Electricity
3.0
4.4
Breeding repls.
0.9
1.4
Levies & Ins.
1.9
2.7
Water
Bedding
Sundries / misc.
7.4
10.7
Transport
2.6
3.7
Fixed Costs
24%
Labour
9
Building & Equip.
Depr. Repair,& finance 13.8
Interest on Capital
1.4
Total production cost
y/e Dec 2010
13p
20
2
145.8p
@ 21 pigs sold / sow / year at 78 kg dwt
Factors affecting herd performance
Genetics 1%
Health
2%
Housing
Nutrition
13%
59%
Management 9%
Realistic responses to health improvement
High Health
Performance
Improved Health
Opportunity
/ Potential
Reality
Normal Health
Normal health upgrading to Improved health requires
improved management of the current health status
(Knowing what you’ve got – and managing it)
The effect on performance and cost of disease
Disease
Performance
effect
Enzootic
Pneumonia (EP)
34-50 g / day loss
of daily gain
PMWS
Mortality up to 25%
Swine Influenza
Loss of growth
PRRS
Extensive
Ileitis
Cost / pig
Author
?
Klawitter et al
(1988)
c£10
Done (2002)
c£24 / sow
Madec (1992)
£441 million
Nationally in USA
Kliebenstein et al
(2005)
FCR 0.05 – 0.2
+3 weeks to sale
£0.92 - £13.87
Lawrence (1999)
Mange
Daily gain -9.2%
FCR -12.5%
?
?
Cargill and Dobson
(1979)
EP and APP
30.3-58.8g loss of
daily gain
?
Baekbo et al (2002)
EP
Very severe
£5.71
Burch et al (2007)
Disadvantages of some of the previous estimates
of the cost of disease
 Presume that other pathogens are not present / or are not significant
 Do not indicate disease severity (acute or chronic) or duration
 Often evaluated irrespective of prevailing economic conditions
 Some show physical performance depression, not economic losses
 Rarely show cost of treatment and the value (cost) of lost of performance
 Perceived of less relevance when sourced in other countries
 So how long is the piece of string?
It’s not so much about the disease –
as it is about its effect on performance
How comfortable are you with: Precise production performance
parameters for your herd?
 the effect of performance on the
economics of pig production?
 the effect of disease on performance
and profitability?
Performance range in UK herds – June 2011
Weight range 7 – 103kg
77.25 kg dead weight
Bottom
third
Top
third
Daily gain (g / day)
586
700
114
£1.46*
F C R (feed at £229 / T)
2.74
2.25
0.39
£8.93
Mortality %
6.1
3.9
2.2
£1.80
-
-
-
£12.19
Cost / kg Dead wt. gain (p)
Year ending June 2011
92.7
62.7
30.0
£23.2
Weaned / sow / year
Indoor
19.7
26.4
6.7
£155 / sow
Weaned / sow / year
Outdoor
19.0
23.05
4.05
£94 / sow
Total / pig sold
Difference Difference
(Physical) Value / pig
*based on 64p / 50g / day and excluding FCR effect
The cost / value of changes in pig performance - summary
September - November 2011
Parameter changed for
pigs 7-107kg
Value / pig Variables influencing the value
sold
0.1 F C R
(ave. feed cost £229 / T)
£2.29
Feed costs and weight range
c10p / pig / £10 / tonne cost change
1% Mortality
£0.82
Costs, sales value, weight at death
50g daily gain - Extra
throughput same weight
50g daily gain - Same
throughput heavier weight
1 Marginal pig finished
Input costs, sales values, FCR
£0.64
output + *But must NOT ‘double count’ FCR
£1.62 FCR
= £2.26
£3.25
£53
Input costs, sales values,
incremental FCR
Input costs, sales values, breakeven point, performance
The concept (and the reality) of the marginal pig
Marginal pigs are those pigs produced in excess
of the break-even cost
The concept (and the reality) of the marginal pig
 Marginal pigs only incur their own direct costs of production,
none of the unit’s fixed costs, or any of the sow’s overhead
costs which are carried by the pigs covering the break-even
costs.
 Consequently marginal pigs are potentially very profitable pigs
 Farmers do not make an average net margin / pig, they break-
even with ‘X’- pigs, - then make a profit on the marginal ‘Y’ pigs
Cost of production and output break-even point
80 Kg dead weight pigs sold at 144p / kg (£115 / pig)
£ / sow / year
3000
Break-even
2500
2000
53 106 159 212 265 318 371 424 477
Profit £ / sow / year
1500
Direct variable costs @ £62 / pig
1000
Variable costs / sow – feed, vet / med. Replacement, water etc
500
Fixed costs / sow & pigs
– Labour, Building equipment depreciation / repair & finance charges
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Pigs sold / sow / year
Pigs /sow / year 16
17 18 19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
Margin £ / pig -6.63 -3.12 0 2.80 5.30 7.57 9.64 11.52 13.25 14.84 16.30 17.66
Margin £/sow -106 -53
0 53 106 159 212 265 318 371 424 477
Break-even production point year ending Feb-April 2011
(wean-sale average feed cost / tonne £262, pig price 137p / kg)
Break-even
£ / sow
3000
Pig sale value
Total production cost
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Variable costs / sow – feed, vet / med. Replacement, water etc
Fixed costs / sow – Labour, Building equipment depreciation /
repair & finance charges
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Number of pigs sold / sow / year
Cost of disease - Porcine parvovirus (PPV)
Single pathogen infection & response - Parvovirus
 Registration trial for Porcilis Ery+Parvo
 Groups of PPV non-immune gilts were kept in secure isolation
 10 gilts were vaccinated 2 weeks prior to mating with a single 2ml dose
12 11.9
9
5.3
6
3
0
Ery+Parvo
vaccinated
Controls
% of gilts with >1 PPV+ve pigs
Live born pigs
of Porcilis Ery+Parvo; 10 gilts were kept as unvaccinated controls
 Both groups were challenged with PPV at 40 days post mating
100
73
75
50
25
0
Ery+Parvo
vaccinated
Controls
It’s not so much about the disease –
as it is about its effect on performance – UK Vet survey
 Assumptions given
 500 sow indoor breeder / finisher ‘normal health status – M.hyo +ve’,
usual age & range of buildings, some all in / all out, etc.
 Breeding herd performance:
 90% farrowing rate, 10.4 pigs weaned / litter, 10% pre-wean mortality,
weaned 24 p / s / year at 7 kg at c28 days of age
 Wean - sale performance: 4% mortality & 680g daily gain (7-100 kg)
 Requested information – disease descriptors
 For each of 6 diseases indicate Duration of Acute and Chronic phases
assuming that prompt treatments / preventions were actioned
 Severity - the drop in performance (absolute or %) for each disease
 The on-going cost of prevention / treatment / sow / year
Vet survey summary – Porcine parvovirus (PPV)
Pre-parvovirus outbreak herd performance was:90% Farrowing rate % and 10.4 weaned / litter
Mean
Vet response
range of values
Acute phase duration (weeks)
8
4 - 12
Acute phase farrowing rate %
75
60 - 90
Acute phase pigs weaned / litter
7.6
4.4 - 9.5
Chronic phase farrowing rate %
87*
82 - 90
Chronic phase weaned / litter
10.0*
9.5 - 10.4
Prevention cost / (£) sow / year
£2.50
£1 - £3.60
*50% of vets correctly indicated that there would not be a chronic
phase if an effective vaccination program was in place
Cost of disease - Porcine parvovirus (PPV)
500 productive sow unit – 2.3 litters / sow / year, 10.4 weaned / litter
24 pigs weaned / sow / year or 12,000 pigs / year
Litters weaned
/ week
Pigs weaned /
litter
Pigs weaned /
week
Pre-Parvovirus outbreak
22
10.4
230
Acute Parvo phase (8wks)
18
7.6
139
Difference
4
2.8
91
Output / sow is 22.5 pigs / sow / year due to acute phase, 728 fewer pigs / year
therefore all pigs ‘lost’ were marginal pigs worth £53 each, or £38,584 / herd
Cost of Porcilis Ery +Parvo vaccination £2.50 / sow / year or £1250 / herd
of which £2.15 is Parvo and 35p is erysipelas / sow / year or £1075 / herd
Payback is 36 : 1
How (PRDC) Porcine Respiratory Disease Complex
affects the pig and its performance
• ‘Pneumonia’
• Inflammation of lung tissue
• Consolidation & loss of
function of lung tissue
• Affects variable areas of lung
• Severity of affected areas is
variable
• Pleurisy
• Inflammation of lung and
chest lining causing adhesion
PRDC & lost performance
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Impaired breathing / oxygen transfer
Lethargy / morbidity / pain
Reduced feed intake per day
Partitioning of nutrients to immune response
Fewer nutrients – reduced growth rate
Increased total feed use – extra days
Increased medication / vaccination costs
Increased mortality
Cost of dead pig disposal
Carcase condemnation
Reduced profitability
Lower staff morale
Oxygen in
CO2 Out
2/13/2012
The cost & prevention of Enzootic pneumonia
(EP or M.hyo)
 Approximately 70% of herds
M.hyo vaccinate to prevent
Enzootic Pneumonia (EP)
 15 trials world-wide showed a
response to M.hyo vaccination
ranging from -10g to +82 g /day
 Is vaccination cost effective?
Incidence and losses due to EP
• Nationally 78% herds are EP positive (NADIS data)
• BPHS data indicate that 20-30% of lungs assessed have
EP–like lesions
• Lungs are scored on a 0 - 55 point scale:• Target score <4 for M.hyo vaccinated herds
• Lung score of 10+ for herds with clinical signs of EP
• 40g /day loss of growth / 10% increase in EP score
An example of the cost of lung damage on margins
Performance 7-100 kg
Nil
Mild
0
5
10
20
30
Growth rate g / day
700
680
640
590
530
Days wean – sale
133
137
145
158
176
Mortality %
3
3.5
4.5
6
7.5
Reduction in margin / pig
0
£1.23
£3.69
£6.97
£10.66
Lung damage
Moderate Severe
Very
Severe
Cost of EP and vaccination payback
EP-like lung score
0
6
12
18
Loss of Growth (g / day)
0
40g
80g
120g
Value / pig (50g = £3.25 / pig
-
£2.60
£5.20
£7.80
Cost of vaccination
0
80p
80p
80p
Net gain / pig
-
£1.80
£4.40
£7.00
Net gain / 500 sows @
22 pigs sold / sow /year
-
£19,800
£48,400
£77,000
Net payback / pig
at 2.5 times per year
-
2.25:1
5.5:1
8.75:1
M.Hyo vaccination to prevent EP lung damage is very cost effective
Break-even point is 80p; or 12g loss of growth / day equivalent to 2 points on
the lung score scale
Decision to vaccinate EP challenged pigs should be a ‘no brainer’
Dual pathogen infection – M.hyopneumoniae and PCV2
• Dual-infected pigs had:-
800
– Severe respiratory disease
– Lethargy
– Decreased average daily
weight gain
750
700
Weight in grams
– Coughing
– Sneezing
– Increased respiratory rates
650
Controls
600
M. hyo.
550
Dual
500
PCV2
450
400
0-7 DPI
7-14 DPI
Days Post Infection
14-21 DPI
(T.Opriessnig, Iowa State University)
Iowa State University
Macroscopic Lesions at 35 days post infection
No.
pigs
Lung lesions
(0-100%)
Lymph node
(0-3 x Size)
Controls
8
0.0±0.0A
0.0±0.0A
M. hyo.
8
10.5±3.3B
0.0±0.0A
PCV2 + M.hyo
8
23.8±5.9B
3.0±0.0B
PCV2
8
1.0±0.9A
2.2±0.1C
(T.Opriessnig, Iowa State University)
A service to pig producers offered by MSD Animal Health
2/13/2012
Presentation Name
Cross-sectional blood testing (6 samples x 5 age groups) indicates
which pathogens are active and at what stage of production
2/13/2012
Presentation Name
2/13/2012
Presentation Name
2/13/2012
Presentation Name
Increasing response from vaccination
2/13/2012
No Vaccination
Presentation Name
Conclusions – the cost & control of PRDC
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Know your current herd performance – growth rate, FCR, mortality
UK has a wide range of performance – aim to be >Top⅓
Know performance values for your unit e.g 0.1 FCR = £2.20 / pig
Respiratory disease causes reduced feed intake and growth rate
Know what respiratory pathogens / disease is currently on your unit
Manage your current health status more effectively:Batch production (3 weekly)
All in / All out and age segregated, one-way pig flow
Improve ventilation control
The correct vaccination regime / strategic medication
Work (with) your Vet
Monitor on-farm performance and abattoir results
Review results, increase targets and continue to make changes
 It’s not so much about the disease –
as it is about its effect on performance
 ‘It’s not so much about knowing the cost of disease –
it’s more about doing something about it’
Thank you for your attention