Document of The World Bank For Official Use Only Report No: 57899-GW PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT FOR A PROPOSED IDA GRANT IN AN AMOUNT EQUIVALENT TO SDR 3.9 MILLION (US$6 MILLION EQUIVALENT) AND A PROPOSED GRANT FROM THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY TRUST FUND IN THE AMOUNT OF US$2 MILLION TO THE REPUBLIC OF GUINEA-BISSAU FOR THE GUINEA-BISSAU PROJECT UNDER THE FIRST PHASE OF APL-B IN SUPPORT OF THE US$161 MILLION WEST AFRICA REGIONAL FISHERIES PROGRAM (WARFP) March 7, 2011 Sustainable Development Department Environment and Natural Resources Management Unit Country Department AFCF1, AFCRI Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Exchange Rate Effective January 31, 2011 Currency Unit FCFA 493.35 SDR 1 = = = Franc CFA US$1 US$1.5385 FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AAP AMAE ANAPA ANEP APL CEM CPAR CSRP DGCP ECOWAS EITI ESMF ESW EU FAO FISCAP FMP FY GDP GEF IBAP IBRD ICB IDA IRR ISN LME MCS M&E NCB NPV PAD PDO PEMFAR PPO RCU RIAS SBD TAC TURF US African Action Plan National Association of Women Fish Traders National Association of Artisanal Fishermen National Association of Fish Processors Adaptable Program Loan Country Economic Memorandum Country Procurement Assessment Review Sub-Regional Fisheries Commission (Commission Sous-Régionale des Pêches) Procurement Department (Direcção General dos Concursos Públicos) Economic Community of West African States Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative Environmental and Social Management Framework Economic and Sector Work European Union Food and Agriculture Organization Fisheries Surveillance Unit Fisheries Management Plan Fiscal Year Gross Domestic Product Global Environment Facility Institute for Biodiversity and Protected Areas International Bank for Reconstruction and Development International Competitive Bidding International Development Association Internal Rate of Return Interim Strategy Note Large Marine Ecosystem Monitoring, Control, and Surveillance Monitoring & Evaluation National Competitive Bidding Net Present Value Project Appraisal Document Project Development Objective Public Expenditure Management and Financial Accountability Review Policy and Planning Office Regional Coordination Unit Regional Integration Assistance Strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa Standard Bidding Documents Total Allowance Catch Territorial Use Rights Fisheries United States VMS WARFP WSSD Vessel Monitoring System West Africa Regional Fisheries Program World Summit on Sustainable Development Vice President: Sector Director: Regional Integration Director: Acting Country Director: Sector Manager: Task Team Leader: Obiageli K. Ezekwesili Jamal Saghir Yusupha Crookes McDonald Benjamin Idah Pswarayi-Riddihough John Virdin WEST AFRICA West Africa Regional Fisheries Program APL B1 CONTENTS Page I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT ............................................................................................1 A. Regional Context ...........................................................................................................1 B. Country Context ............................................................................................................1 C. Sectoral and Institutional Context ...................................................................................2 D. Higher Level Objectives to which the Program Contributes ............................................4 II. A. III. PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ..........................................................6 PDO ..............................................................................................................................6 PROJECT DESCRIPTION .........................................................................................7 B. Program Financing and Phases .......................................................................................9 C. Lessons learned and reflected in the program design ..................................................... 11 IV. IMPLEMENTATION ............................................................................................... 12 A. Institutional and implementation arrangements ............................................................. 12 B. Results monitoring and evaluation................................................................................ 13 C. Sustainability ............................................................................................................... 14 V. KEY RISKS ............................................................................................................... 14 VI. APPRAISAL SUMMARY ......................................................................................... 15 Annex 1. Results Framework and Monitoring………………………………………….…….23 Annex 2. Project Description…………………………………………………………………..26 Annex 3. Implementation Arrangements……………………………………………………..35 Annex 4. Operational Risk Assessment Framework (ORAF)……………………………….54 Annex 5. Implementation Support Plan………………………………………………………57 Annex 6. Team Composition…………………………………………………………………...59 Annex 7. Economic and Financial Analysis…………………………………………………..60 Annex 8. Incremental Cost Analysis…………………………………………………………..68 PAD DATA SHEET WEST AFRICA Regional Fisheries Program APL B1 PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT AFTEN Date: March 7, 2011 Sectors: Agriculture, fishing and forestry Country Director: Yusupha Crookes (100%) Sector Director: Jamal Saghir Themes: Other environment and natural Sector Manager: Idah Z. Pswarayi-Riddihough resources management (67%); Environmental Team Leader: John Virdin policies and institutions (33%) Project ID: P119380 and P122182 EA Category: B- Partial Assessment Lending Instrument: Adaptable Program Loan Project Financing Data Proposed terms: IDA Grant in the amount of US$6.0 million [ ] Loan [ ] Credit [ X ] Grant [ ] Guarantee [ ] Other: Financing Plan (US$m) Source Local BORROWER/RECIPIENT 0.00 IDA Grant 6.00 GEF Grant 2.00 Total: 8.00 Borrower: Republic of Guinea-Bissau Foreign 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total 0.00 6.00 2.00 8.00 Responsible Agency: Secretariat of State for Fisheries Contact Person: Mario Dias Sami, Secretary of State Telephone No.: (245) 320-7106 Email: [email protected] IDA Estimated Disbursements (Bank FY/US$m) FY Annual Cumulative FY Annual Cumulative 11 12 13 14 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 0.5 1.5 3.0 4.5 GEF Estimated Disbursements (Bank FY/US$m) 11 0.2 0.2 12 0.2 0.4 13 0.5 0.9 14 0.5 1.4 15 1.0 5.5 16 0.5 6.0 15 0.3 1.7 16 0.3 2.0 Project implementation period: 5 years Expected approval by the Board of Executive Directors: March 31, 2011 Expected closing date: June 30, 2016 Does the project depart from the CAS in content or other significant respects? Ref. PAD I.C. Does the project require any exceptions from Bank policies? Ref. PAD IV.G. Have these been approved by Bank management? Is approval for any policy exception sought from the Board? Does the project include any critical risks rated “substantial” or “high”? Ref. PAD III.E. Does the project meet the Regional criteria for readiness for implementation? Ref. PAD IV.G. [ ]Yes [X] No [ ]Yes [X] No [ ]Yes [ ] No [ ]Yes [X] No [X]Yes [ ] No [X]Yes [ ] No Project Development objective Ref. PAD II.C., Technical Annex 3 The Project Development Objective is to strengthen the country‟s capacity to govern and manage targeted fisheries, reduce illegal fishing and increase local value added to fish products. Project description Ref. PAD II.D., Technical Annex 4. The program will have four components: Component 1: Good Governance and Sustainable Management of the Fisheries. This component aims to build the capacity of the Government and stakeholders to develop and implement policies through a shared approach that would ensure that the fish resources are used in a manner that is environmentally sustainable, socially equitable and economically profitable. Component 2: Reduction of Illegal Fishing. The component aims to reduce the illegal fishing activities threatening the sustainable management of the marine fish resources and the wealth they can generate for the region. More specifically, this component aims to improve the fisheries monitoring, control and surveillance (MCS) systems of participating countries and adapt them to the needs of fisheries management, within the framework of a coordinated approach between the participating countries. Component 3: Increasing the Contribution of the Fish Resources to the Local Economy. The component aims to increase the benefits to West Africa from the marine fish resources, by increasing the share of the value-added captured in the region. Component 4: Coordination, Monitoring and Evaluation and Project Management. This component aims to support countries to implement the Program in the context of the CSRP Strategic Action Plan, and to monitor and evaluate results. Safeguard policies triggered? Environmental Assessment (OP/BP 4.01) Natural Habitats (OP/BP 4.04) Forests (OP/BP 4.36) Pest Management (OP 4.09) Physical Cultural Resources (OP/BP 4.11) Indigenous Peoples (OP/BP 4.10) Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12) Safety of Dams (OP/BP 4.37) Projects on International Waterways (OP/BP 7.50) Projects in Disputed Areas (OP/BP 7.60) X Yes ○ Yes ○ Yes ○ Yes ○ Yes ○ Yes ○ Yes ○ Yes ○ Yes ○ Yes ○ X X X X X X X X X No No No No No No No No No No Conditions and Legal Covenants: Financing Agreement Description of Condition/Covenant Date Due Reference Article V, paragraph The Subsidiary Agreement, in form and substance By effectiveness 5.01 (a) satisfactory to the Association, has been executed date on behalf of the Recipient and CSRP. Article V, paragraph 5.01 (b) Schedule 2, Section IV, paragraph B.1 (b) Article IV, paragraph 4.02 The Recipient shall have established the Policy and Planning Office with: (i) the Project Coordinator; and (ii) a financial management specialist and a procurement specialist, both under terms of reference and with qualifications and experience satisfactory to the Association. No disbursements will be made for the purchase of fisheries patrol vessels, until and unless the Association shall have been satisfied, based on an exchange of views with the Recipient, with the cost-efficiency, technical specifications and fiscal sustainability of the proposed expenditures. The Co-financing Deadline for the effectiveness of the GEF Trust Fund Grant Agreement is July 1, 2011. By effectiveness date Disbursement condition July 1, 2011 Schedule 2, Section I, paragraph A.1 (a) Schedule 2, Section I, paragraph E.1 Schedule 2, Section I, paragraph E.4 The Recipient, through the Fisheries Secretariat, shall maintain throughout Project implementation the Policy and Planning Office within its structure, under terms of reference satisfactory to the Association. The PPO shall be headed by the Project Coordinator and shall be composed of: (i) a fisheries monitoring, control and surveillance (MCS) specialist specially assigned to the implementation of component 2 of the Project; (ii) a financial management specialist; (iii) a procurement specialist; (iv) an administrative assistant, all under terms of reference and with experience and qualifications satisfactory to the Association, and shall comprise any additional staff that may be necessary, particularly in the accounting and procurement areas, for the successful implementation of the Project. The Recipient shall ensure that the Project is implemented in accordance with the provisions of the Environmental and Social Management Framework and each of the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) or the Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP), as the case may be, in a manner satisfactory to the Association, and the Recipient shall not amend or waive any provision of the aforementioned documents without the prior written agreement of the Association. The Recipient shall: (i) not later than September 30, 2012, undertake a social assessment of the impact of the Project on the management of its fisheries resources upon terms of reference satisfactory to the Association; (ii) on the basis thereon, implement measures satisfactory to the Association to minimize and mitigate adverse social impacts, if any, especially those affecting poor and vulnerable groups, (iii) adequately monitor and evaluate the carrying out of said measures in the implementation of the Project and maintain the Association suitably and timely informed of the progress thereon, including by means of information to be included in the quarterly Project reports. Covenant Covenant September 30, 2012 Schedule 2, Section I, paragraph F.1, F.2 Schedule 2, Section I, paragraph F.4 In order to ensure the proper implementation of Covenant component 2 of the Project and more generally the monitoring, control and surveillance of its coastal fisheries in a manner designed to achieve the objective of the Program, the Recipient shall ensure at all times that: All monitoring, control and surveillance activities carried out by the Recipient shall be under the control of FISCAP and shall be carried out by civilian authorities under terms of reference limited to fisheries surveillance. that all goods, works, services and Operating Costs financed out of the proceeds of the Financing are used exclusively by civilian authorities for the purposes of the Project, and not for any military purpose, or for any criminal investigation, prosecution or proceedings, or for any other purposes unrelated to the objectives of the Project. The Recipient shall ensure that all monitoring, Covenant control and surveillance activities carried out under the Project are audited periodically by the Independent Panel of Experts to be established under component 2.3 of the Project and whose qualifications, experience and terms of reference are satisfactory to the Association. To this end, the Recipient shall take all measures required on its part, including provision of all information required and access to all relevant sites, to enable the said Independent Panel of Experts to conduct the audits required of them under and in the manner required pursuant to the Project Agreement with CSRP. WEST AFRICA WEST AFRICA REGIONAL FISHERIES PROGRAM APL B1 I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT A. Regional Context 1. Coastal West Africa, from Mauritania to Nigeria, is the westernmost region of the continent and home to a growing population of almost 300 million. With the exception of Mauritania, all of these countries are members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The region includes a wide range of countries at varying stages of economic development, five of whom have a per capita GDP below US$1,000 (Gambia, Guinea, GuineaBissau, Liberia and Sierra Leone), and several of whom are emerging from conflicts within the last ten years. Poverty is widespread throughout this coastal region, and the economy in almost every country is heavily dependent on natural resources. B. Country Context 2. Guinea-Bissau is one of the poorest countries within this region, and indeed the world, ranking 173 out of 182 countries on the United Nations Human Development Index 2009. It has a population of roughly 1.6 million, and its economy is based primarily on farming and fishing activities, which represent some 55 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Agriculture generates 80 percent of employment and 90 percent of exports (primarily through cashew nuts, the main export), while fisheries represent some 7 to 10 percent of GDP and up to 25 to 40 percent of public revenues. The country has poor infrastructure and weak social indicators; life expectancy is 48 years, more than two out of every three people live below the poverty line (US$2/day), and one out of every five lives in extreme poverty. 3. The country is also extremely fragile. It has experienced periodic unrest since independence, including an 11 month civil war in 1998-99 and a series of military coups. Although the 2008 general election and the 2009 presidential elections (required following assassination of the Army chief of Staff and President in March 2009) were considered free and fair, there continue to be destabilizing forces as evidenced most recently by the April 2010 military overthrow of the Army Chief of Staff and temporary imprisonment of the Prime Minister. The fragility of the political process is further exacerbated by the influence of drug traffickers, using the country – as well as its West African neighbors – as a drug transshipment point on route to Europe. These forces have, and continue to undermine the development of the country‟s economic and social infrastructure and contribute to the intensification of the already widespread poverty. 4. Despite the country‟s extreme poverty and political fragility, it has the natural resources and the geography to grow at a reasonable rate. It has an abundance of high quality land and favorable rainfall. Its rich mineral deposits; exotic bio-diversity; and fishing and tourism potential, particularly in the coastal zone where approximately 80 percent of the population lives; could provide diverse sources of income. 1 C. Sectoral and Institutional Context 5. Sector Importance. Due to exceptional climatic and ecological conditions, the coastal countries of West Africa are endowed with some of the richest fishing grounds in the world. The marine fish stocks in these waters constitute a significant natural asset for the countries of West Africa, which is transboundary in nature (as both fish stocks and fishing fleets routinely migrate across national borders). More specifically, more than 1.6 million tons of fish are legally captured in West African waters each year, with an estimated wholesale value of US$2.5 billion. 6. Despite having only a relatively small coastline within West Africa, Guinea-Bissau is endowed with one of region‟s largest continental shelves, covering roughly 45,000 square kilometers of largely shallow water that is supplied by numerous flows of nutrients from rivers as well as coldwater (upwelling) currents from the sea. These natural conditions converge to create a favorable environment for supporting significant and highly valuable marine fish resources within the waters of Guinea-Bissau. Because the country‟s waters provide breeding grounds for a number of commercially important fish stocks, it has even been speculated that Guinea-Bissau is the region‟s „nursery ground‟ for these fish. The benefit of having such natural renewable capital is that unlike minerals or petroleum, if managed sustainably fish resources will regenerate to previous levels and therefore provide a country with a constant stream of economic benefits over the long-term. 7. As with the rest of West Africa, this valuable natural asset is likely to remain over the near to medium term as one of the main components of economic growth in the country. The sector contributes some 7 to 10 percent of GDP and as much as 40 percent of the Government‟s annual budget in some years, due to access fees or rents paid by foreign vessels. However, l ocal value added to fish products, and fish exports (and therefore contributions to foreign exchange) are practically nil. Local employment in the sector is estimated to be relatively low, around 15,000 persons. 8. Key Sector Issues and Institutional Constraints. Guinea-Bissau currently realizes far smaller economic benefits from its marine fish resources than could be the case, due largely to two overarching challenges that are common throughout West Africa: (i) weak governance of the sector, and particularly an inability to prevent illegal fishing (essentially the theft of the resources), and (ii) a lack of infrastructure and services (as well as overall investment climate) needed to add value locally to the fish captured in the country‟s waters. 9. Firstly, Guinea-Bissau has in the past pursued a strategy of „renting‟ out its fisheries resources to foreign users, in exchange for public revenues. However, this strategy, and the public revenues generated by the sector, is unlikely to remain viable under the status quo. The country has never put in place the basic sector governance and management measures needed to ensure that the resources are used sustainably, or that the revenues generated from fishing are sustainable. The Fisheries Secretariat (formerly the Ministry of Fisheries), has been chronically underfunded, receiving only a small portion of the revenues the sector generates. At the same time, the need to generate as much rent as possible from the resources has encouraged the Government to sell more licenses than estimated available resources, essentially selling access to the same fish 2 several times over, or printing fishing licenses like money. As a result, despite the lack of any reliable data (since few fish catches from Guinea-Bissau‟s waters are actually reported to the country), anecdotal evidence from fishing companies indicates that the fish catch per unit of fishing effort is declining, reflecting a diminishing resource base. Furthermore, the country has insufficient means to patrol its waters or enforce fishing regulations, and as a result widespread illegal fishing is also reported, essentially the theft of economic resources. On the basis of these challenges, the European Union reduced the value of its foreign fisheries agreement during the last negotiations (2007), and is unlikely to continue paying at the current rate after this agreement concludes in 2012. 10. Secondly, even if the level of fishing effort was managed to sustainable and profitable levels, Guinea-Bissau does not have adequate infrastructure or services for vessels to land and process fish exports in the country (nor does it have a large local market ). No sufficient port exists for industrial fishing vessels, constituting a major constraint to greater processing and local value added to fish products. However, equally challenging is the significant red tape, fees and taxes that confront potential foreign investors, as well as the lack of an internationallyrecognized quality control system for exports to the European Union (one of the major markets for some of the high-value fish in the country‟s waters). 11. These issues facing Guinea-Bissau‟s fisheries are common throughout West Africa, where the marine fish resources constitute a natural asset that is heavily underperforming and could make a much greater contribution to economic growth and poverty alleviation if better managed. The underperformance of marine fisheries throughout the region is due to: (i) the dwindling size of the asset, resulting from (a) insufficient capacity in the countries to govern and manage the use of the resources to sustainable levels and to prevent their overexploitation, and more specifically (b) the inability of countries to prevent illegal fishing; and (ii) the fact that the resources are largely taken in an offshore economy by foreign or industrial vessels who rarely land their fish catch in the region or participate in the local economy, so that the countries only capture a fraction of the value. 12. To help address these constraints, the West Africa Regional Fisheries Program was designed to support the countries to collaborate: (i) to strengthen the governance of the use of the marine fish resources so that they recover to much more environmentally sustainable and economically profitable levels, while at the same time; (ii) to invest where needed to increase the portion of the value of these resources that is captured locally within the region. 13. Regional and Government Responses to Key Sector Issues and Constraints. The Government of Guinea-Bissau has prepared a draft National Fisheries Strategy recognizing that the current model of fisheries development is exhausted, whereby access to the resources is rented to any and all foreign interested parties to generate as much short -term public revenue as possible. The draft National Fisheries Strategy notes that the current regime of fisheries exploitation will not provide the financial resources desired by the public sector, will generate few benefits for the private sector, and will inevitably lead to the decline of the fish resources. 14. The Government‟s draft Strategy therefore places an emphasis on the sustainable management of the marine fish resources, and achieving an optimal contribution of the sector to 3 economic growth and poverty reduction, by building the capacity for governance of the fisheries, combating and reducing illegal fishing and increasing local landings and value added of fish products. The Government also recognizes that due to the shared nature of the resources and/or fishing fleets, collaboration at the regional level is needed in order to reach these objectives. Together with six other coastal countries from Mauritania to Sierra Leone, the Government of Guinea-Bissau has clearly expressed an interest in such a regional approach through its participation in and commitment to the Sub-Regional Fisheries Commission (Commission SousRégionale des Pêches - CSRP), and the adoption of its Strategic Action Plan (Plan d’Action Stratégique 2002-2010). The Sub-Regional Fisheries Commission is an intergovernmental organization created on March 29, 1985 by means of a convention. The CSRP Strategic Action Plan for fisheries focuses in particular on strengthening resource management and increased monitoring, control, and surveillance (MCS) activities to reduce illegal fishing. D. Higher Level Objectives to which the Program Contributes 15. The West Africa Regional Fisheries Program is a $161 million facility that contributes to the higher level objectives set for the world‟s marine fisheries by the WSSD. The WSSD felt overfishing represented a serious crisis meriting a concerted effort by the international community over the proceeding 10 to 12 years, in order to restore the world‟s fisheries to health by the year 2015 (including the coastal ecosystems that support these fisheries). The WSSD further called on donor agencies and stakeholders to create new and flexible partnerships to be able to respond to this growing crisis in world fisheries and implement the target for 2015. 16. Contribution to the CSRP Strategic Action Plan 2002 - 2010. Guinea-Bissau and the other six member countries of the CSRP have clearly expressed their interest to collaborate to manage the region‟s fisheries and help achieve the objectives set by the WSSD, through participation in the CSRP and adoption of a Strategic Action Plan 2002 – 2010. The Strategic Action Plan calls for strengthened fish resource management among the member countries, and increased monitoring, control and surveillance activities to reduce illegal fishing. To date, implementation of the Strategic Action Plan has been slow, largely due to financing needs of the countries. The West Africa Regional Fisheries Program helps member countries such as Guinea-Bissau to respond to this need. 17. Contribution to the Interim Strategy Note (ISN) for Guinea-Bissau. The World Bank‟s Interim Strategy Note for Guinea-Bissau (approved by the Board of Executive Directors in 2009 until a new Country Assistance Strategy is prepared), identifies agriculture, forestry and fisheries as key sources of current and future economic growth for the country, which are endangered by deforestation, soil degradation and fisheries depletion. The first pillar of the ISN is „Strengthening Economic Management and Laying the Foundations Improvements in the Productive Sectors.‟ As part of achieving this pillar, the ISN specifies that „Guinea-Bissau will also be included in the West Africa Regional Fisheries Project,‟ IDA funds permitting. This is further described in the proposed portfolio matrix for the country, where this operation is scheduled for fiscal year 2011 (FY11). Additionally, the fisheries sector is one of the key sectors described in the upcoming Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) under preparation for Guinea-Bissau, as a basis for the Country Assistance Strategy. 4 18. Contribution to the Africa Regional Strategy. The willingness of Guinea-Bissau to collaborate together with its neighbors in West Africa to increase the value of the country‟s marine fisheries asset, and in particular to implement the needed governance and management reforms, fits squarely within the World Bank‟s objective to promote governance of natural resources through the implementation of the Africa Regional Strategy, “Africa‟s Future and the World Bank‟s support to it”. More specifically, regional integration is a core element of the Africa Regional Strategy, which notes in particular the need for countries to work together on a regional basis, including on regional public goods such as fisheries. 19. Contribution to the Regional Integration Assistance Strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa (RIAS). In 2008, the World Bank completed a Regional Integration Assistance Strategy for Sub -Saharan Africa in order to help leverage increased benefits for the region through investments in crossborder integration and collaboration. The RIAS notes that one of the main rationales for World Bank support to regional integration in Africa is the need for assistance with the management of shared natural resources, such as fisheries. The RIAS highlights the fact that fisheries lie across borders and require regional collaboration to ensure sustainable harvesting and to prevent conflicts. As such, one of the three pillars of the RIAS is to support coordinated interventions to provide regional public goods, focusing on regional water resources, forestry and fisheries. For this reason, the West Africa Regional Fisheries Program was listed in the RIAS in the indicative lending program for the World Bank (Table 3, page 47). 20. Consistency with IDA’s regional project eligibility criteria. The investments of the West Africa Regional Fisheries Program (WARFP) meet IDA‟s regional project eligibility criteria. The WARFP supports: (i) at least three countries, all of whom need to participate in order to manage the fisheries and reduce illegal fishing; (ii) a platform for regional policy harmonization with a high degree of country and regional ownership, as evidenced by the region‟s strategy for the fisheries, the Strategic Action Plan 2002 – 2010 of the CSRP; and (iii) social and economic benefits that spill over countries‟ boundaries, as a result of both fish stocks and fishers that migrate across national borders. 21. Contribution to Relevant GEF Operational Program Goals. The GEF co-financing will assist Guinea-Bissau to carry out regulatory and institutional reforms to better collaborate with its neighbors to implement ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries resource management in the Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem. More specifically, the proposed investment will support the Objective 2 of the international waters focal area under GEF-5, which aims at multistate cooperation to rebuild marine fisheries and reduce pollution of coasts and Large Marine Ecosystems while considering climate variability and change. Lastly, this investment supports the development of sustainable fisheries in Guinea-Bissau as part of the Strategic Partnership for Fisheries in Africa, approved in November 2005. The Strategic Partnership aims to promote the sustainable management of fisheries resources in the large marine ecosystems (LMEs) of SubSaharan Africa in order to assist coastal countries to make concrete progress towards achieving the fisheries and poverty reduction targets set by the WSSD. 22. Compliance with the Eligibility Criteria of the GEF Strategic Partnership for Fisheries in Africa. This second APL of the Program is in line with the Strategic Partnership‟s eligibility criteria: 5 (i) Sectoral strategies will include a long-term approach to ensure the sustainability of the fishery sector, poverty alleviation measures and activities designed to achieve those aims. (ii) The proposed investment does not overlap with on-going activities, and is complementary to the Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem Program. (iii) GEF funding will cover the additional cost of activities providing environmental benefits extending beyond the countries‟ borders. (iv) The funding meets the minimum co-financing ratio of three donor dollars to one GEF dollar. The proposed sum of US$2 million from the Partnership Investment Fund would complement the US$6 million in IDA funding (see Annex 5). (v) The proposed investment is consistent with the Partnership‟s 10 operating principles. II. PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. PDO 23. The development objective of the West Africa Regional Fisheries Program (WARFP) is to sustainably increase the overall wealth generated by the exploitation of the marine fisheries resources of West Africa, and the proportion of that wealth captured by West African countries. The WARFP will achieve this objective by: (i) strengthening the countries‟ capacity to sustainably govern and manage their fisheries; (ii) reducing illegal fishing; and (iii) increasing the value and profitability generated by fish resources and the proportion of that value captured by the countries. 24. The cumulative outcome of the WARFP will be: (i) the initial recovery of the resource base of at least 7 overexploited fisheries in the region, as measured by an increase in total landings per unit of fishing capacity (e.g. number of fishing vessels); and (ii) at least a 25 percent increase in net economic benefits to the region from the fisheries targeted by the Program. 25. The development objective of this WARFP investment in Guinea-Bissau (i.e. „the project‟) is to strengthen the country‟s capacity to govern and manage targeted fisheries, reduce illegal fishing and increase local value added to fish products. The targeted fisheries for this first phase include, among others: coastal demersal fish species (e.g. croakers, groupers, snappers, etc.), coastal shrimp and cephalopods (e.g. octopus and cuttlefish). These coastal fisheries are currently utilized largely by foreign industrial and small-scale fishers, and to a lesser extent by local small-scale fishers from the Bijagos Archipelago and coastal communities along the estuaries of the Buba, Cacheu and Cacine rivers, among others. The fishing grounds include all of the continental shelf area, most notably the Bijagos Archipelago and other sensit ive fishing habitats within 12 nautical miles of the coast, where industrial trawl fishing is currently prohibited by law. 26. Project Beneficiaries. The project aims to benefit the country as a whole, with a population of approximately 1.6 million people, by supporting governance reforms to sustainably increase the contribution of the sector to economic growth, in particular the economic rents accrued to the Government from access to the resources. The increased public revenues generated by the investment would be available for reinvestment by the Government where most effective for 6 implementation of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper. These increased revenues would accrue as a result of reduced illegal fishing by foreign industrial vessels as well as foreign small-scale vessels from neighboring countries such as Guinea and Senegal, which, combined with policy reforms to current licensing and access arrangements, would increase the value of fishing rights and the returns to Government and the economy. Thus, local small-scale fishers as well as foreign fishers and companies willing to invest within the legal framework for the long -term would be direct beneficiaries, as would the country and population as a whole due to increased public revenues sustainably generated by the sector. 27. PDO Level Results Indicators. In order to meet the development objective of this WARFP investment in Guinea-Bissau, the first phase of APL-B will focus on achieving several key outcomes, including (see Annex 1: Results Framework and Monitoring): (i) Environmental indicator: Two overexploited fisheries show signs of a recovery, as measured by an increase in total catch per unit of fishing effort; and (ii) Economic indicator: 5 percent increase in annual net economic benefits from targeted fisheries. III. PROJECT DESCRIPTION A. Project Components 28. The West Africa Regional Fisheries Program („the Program‟) includes a menu of activities that could be financed in each participating country, per a shared regional approach. The „project‟ is the specific set of activities that will be implemented in Guinea-Bissau, and is the subject of this document. 29. The project will have a total investment cost estimated at US$8.0 million, of which IDA will finance US$6.0 million; the remaining US$2.0 million is being financed by the GEF. The project will comprise the following four components (see Annex 2 for a detailed project description): 30. Component 1: Good Governance and Sustainable Management of the Fisheries (US$0.3 M IDA, US$1.7 M GEF). The objective of this component is to build the capacity of the Government and stakeholders to implement a shared approach that would ensure that the marine fish resources are used in a manner that is environmentally sustainable, socially fair and economically profitable. This component includes technical assistance, training, goods and equipment and operating costs for the following activities: (a) a strengthened policy and regulatory framework for the use of the fish resources; (b) assessment of the biol ogical and economic status of key fish stocks, as the basis for management; (c) development of tools at the community, national and regional level to ensure transparency and accessibility of basic fisheries management information for controlling access to the resources; and (d) a feasibility study for scaling up collaborative, or co-management partnerships between fishing communities and the Government. 7 31. Component 2: Reduction of Illegal Fishing (US$4.7 M IDA). The objective of this component is to reduce the illegal fishing activities threatening the sustainable management of the marine fish resources and the wealth they can generate for the region. More specifically, this component aims to improve the fisheries monitoring, control and surveillance (M CS) systems of participating countries and adapt them to the needs of fisheries management, within the framework of a coordinated approach between the participating countries. This component will support the following sub-components: 32. Monitoring, Control and Surveillance (MCS) Systems ($4.5 m IDA). This sub-component includes goods, works, operating costs and technical assistance for: (a) implementation of sustainable fisheries surveillance systems (including monitoring centers and stations, sea patro ls and satellite-based vessel monitoring systems); and (b) the implementation of adequate financing mechanisms for fisheries surveillance. 33. Strengthened Regional Collaboration for MCS ($0.2 m IDA). This sub-component includes technical assistance to enable the CSRP to monitor and support the network of MCS systems among the countries. 34. Component 3: Increasing the Contribution of the Marine Fish Resources to the Local Economies (US$0.4 M IDA). The objective of this component is to increase the benefits to West Africa from the marine fish resources, by increasing the share of the value-added captured in the region. This component includes training, goods and technical assistance for the following activities: (i) the establishment of the Fish Inspection and Quality Control Department in GuineaBissau, and (ii) training to local fishers to improve product handling, processing/marketing, transport practices and sanitary measures, maintenance of landing site equipment and knowledge concerning access to local commercial micro-finance opportunities. 35. Component 4: Coordination, Monitoring and Evaluation and Program Management (US$0.6 M IDA, US$0.3 M GEF). The objective of this component is to support the countries to implement the Program in the context of the CSRP Strategic Action Plan, and to monitor and evaluate results. This component will support the following sub-components: 36. National Implementation ($0.3 m IDA, $0.3 m GEF). This sub-component includes goods, works, technical assistance, training and operating costs for the Policy and Planning Office (PPO), embedded within the Fisheries Secretariat and staffed by external and local project management specialists. The PPO will conduct the day-to-day management and implementation of the activities in components one through three of the project, as well as ongoing monitoring and evaluation of outcomes. 37. Regional Coordination ($0.3 m IDA). This sub-component includes technical assistance and consultations for the Regional Coordination Unit at the CSRP, in order to: (a) support the harmonization of fisheries policy within the region; (b) conduct monitoring and evaluation of Program investments and share information and results throughout the region; (c) implement ongoing communication activities to raise awareness about the Program and implementation progress; and (d) provide implementation support to the country, including the coordination of regional procurement. 8 B. Program Financing and Phases 38. Lending instrument: Adaptable Program Loan (co-financed by a GEF grant). 39. The West Africa Regional Fisheries Program (WARFP) is a series of at least 3 overlapping Adaptable Program Loans (APLs) under a $161 million facility, each of which has two phases of five years. As such, the WARFP utilizes the World Bank‟s APL instrument: (i) horizontally, on a regional basis to support 9 countries through a series of overlapping APLs (i.e. APL -A for Cape Verde, Liberia, Senegal and Sierra Leone; APL-B for Guinea-Bissau, and APL-C for Mauritania and the other remaining countries of the 9 eligible); and (ii) vertically, in that each country can receive support from two phases or installments over the APL Program, in order to deepen and expand the reforms supported in the first phase. The APL instrument is pa rticularly well-suited to support the long-term reforms needed in the management and use of the region‟s fisheries, with logical sequencing of events and phasing of activities with agreed milestones, and flexibility needed in execution. 40. The first of the overlapping APLs in the series, APL-A, was approved by the Board of Executive Directors on October 20, 2009 for US$55 million in IDA and GEF investments in the four countries of Cape Verde, Liberia, Senegal and Sierra Leone. This Appraisal document describes the second APL proposed in the series, APL-B, for the country of Guinea-Bissau. The third APL, APL-C, is scheduled to be delivered in FY12, for Mauritania and potentially the other remaining eligible countries. Taken together, the series of APLs (i.e., the West Africa Regional Fisheries Program) is expected to span 10 years, at the end of which period it will have covered all nine eligible countries: i.e. the seven member countries of the CSRP (Cape Verde, the Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritania, Senegal and Sierra Leone) plus Liberia and Ghana. 41. The West Africa Regional Fisheries Program has a shared objective and approach, meaning that each APL in the series has the same framework, i.e. the same components and subcomponents, but is applied to different countries (with some different specifics for each country). This overlapping design addresses three key considerations: (i) encourage regional collaboration in the management and development of the region‟s marine fish resources; (ii) offer long-term support (10 years) to progressively implement actions aimed at strengthening collaborative efforts to manage shared fisheries and fish resources; and (iii) give flexibility to groups of countries to participate in the WARFP as they become eligible, rather than wait for the end of the first phase of the initial APL to participate. Subsequent to APL-B, Phase 1 of APL-C (APL-C1) and subsequent APLs will be described in a Project Appraisal Document (PAD), but in line with approval procedures for Adaptable Program Loans, would be approved in principle by the Regional Vice President and then circulated to the Board for information, with the approval becoming effective after the end of a ten-day period during which a Board discussion could be scheduled if at least three Executive Directors so requested. 42. In order to implement the shared objective and approach, each APL in the West Africa Regional Fisheries Program will finance activities that would be implemented nationally in each participating country, as well as some activities better implemented at the regional level. Each APL would include investments for both „physical‟ goods, works and services, as well as „soft‟ activities such as technical assistance. Most of the physical investments would be made at the 9 national level, while „soft‟ activities would be implemented at both the national and regional level. On the basis of capacity created in each of the participating countries over the first years of implementation, the Program would aim to gradually transfer implementation of more and more fisheries governance and surveillance activities to the regional level. Initial investments during Phase I in each of the countries will provide significant spillover benefits to neighbors, representing investments in both shared fish resources and fishing fleets. 43. The triggers for Guinea-Bissau to move vertically within the APL from the first to the second phase will be as follows: a publicly available electronic dashboard of key fisheries statistics is established and operational, a satellite-based industrial fishing vessel monitoring system is in place and functioning, as a basis for a regional system, total fisheries surveillance patrol days at sea in the targeted fisheries increase at least 25 percent, and a regional fishing vessel registry is operating at the Sub-Regional Fisheries Commission. 44. Guinea-Bissau has complied with the eligibility criteria for a country to join the West Africa Regional Fisheries Program through participation in an APL, which include: identification of a series of policy reforms for improved governance of the fisheries and definition of a framework for investment to achieve these reforms (including actionable milestones); and a minimum legal and judicial framework for fisheries surveillance that is acceptable to the World Bank. 45. The total cost of APL-B1 is US$8.0 million over 5 years, including IDA financing of US$6 million and GEF funding of US$2 million. From the IDA grant proceeds, Guinea-Bissau will provide a grant of equivalent to at least 5 percent of the total budget (US$0.4 million in total) to the CSRP, to assist in regional surveillance and marketing, knowledge sharing and dissemination, and coordination of monitoring and evaluation activities. The total estimated costs of Phase 1 of APLs A, B and C are given in the table below, estimated at roughly US$100 million. The total financing envelope of the West Africa Regional Fisheries Program, i.e. both phases of the series of overlapping APLs, would not exceed US$183 million (of which US$161 IDA), as that the total costs of Phase 2 would be slightly reduced, since many of the activities would be implemented at the regional level and capture economies of scale. Table 1: West Africa Regional Fisheries Program APL total financing envelope (US$ M) Gov.‟s GEF IDA Total cost APL-A1 (Cape Verde, Liberia, Senegal and Sierra Leone) 1.3 10 45 56.3 APL-A2 1 0 40 41.0 APL-B1 (Guinea-Bissau)* 0 2 6 8.0 APL-B2 1 0 10 11.0 APL-C1, D1, etc. (Mauritania, Guinea and the Gambia)** 1 5 35 41.0 APL-C2, D2, etc. 1 0 25 26.0 Total APLs 5.3 17.0 161.0 183.3 10 * Ghana will also participate in the West Africa Regional Fisheries Program at this stage, financed from its national IDA allocation only, as a specific investment loa n. ** Composition of countries in APLs C and D to be confirmed based on country readiness. 46. The below table summarizes Project Financing: Component and/or Activity 1. Good governance and sustainable management of the fisheries 2. Reduction of illegal fishing 3. Increasing the contribution of the fish resources to the local economy 4. Coordination, monitoring and evaluation and project management TOTAL Total (US $million) 2.0 4.7 0.4 0.9 8.0 C. Lessons learned and reflected in the program design 47. This Program design directly reflects the lessons learned from global good practices summarized in the World Bank Fisheries Approach Paper Saving Fish and Fishers (2004), as well as experiences to date with the first phase of APL-A of the Program, and the Bank‟s large body of analytic work on the sector in the region. 48. Global experiences and lessons learned. Global experiences have shown three key lessons for the design of this Program. Firstly, in the absence of a strong governance framework that empowers users to take a long-term stake in the fisheries, underexploited fisheries will follow a typical pattern of boom and bust resulting in too many fishers chasing too few fish, causing both environmental degradation and economic losses. At the same time, countries with overexploited fisheries will never realize the full economic potential of these resources until they are rehabilitated. For this reason, investments in both underdeveloped and overdeveloped fisheries must begin with the governance framework for the sector, to ensure that the sector can either grow sustainably, or for fisheries that are already overexploited, can be rehabilitated to more profitable levels. As such, the Program includes a strong governance component that would accompany any investments in sector development and local value added, in order to ensure a sustainable supply of fish to local industry. 49. Secondly, on the basis of global experiences, fisheries have only been governed and managed at levels that were both environmentally sustainable and economically profitable when users have been given secure and enforceable rights to the access or output from the resources, as long-term incentives in their health. The form these rights take must be tailored to the specific context of countries with respect to the fish resources in question and the uses of those resources, including the social setting and culture. Fishing rights must also be complete, so that all commercial fishers targeting the specific resources are included, and limited enough to provide long-term incentives. Otherwise, if fishing rights are too diffuse to provide users with the 11 appropriate incentives, it may still be economically rational to „mine‟ the fishery for short-term gains (but larger long-term losses). Thus, the key to fishing rights is that fishers/users have the ability to exclude others from fishing, so that they bear both the costs of conservation and the benefits. This ensures that those who use the fisheries bear the costs of overexploitation. 50. Thirdly, while investments in surveillance and enforcement are essential for reducing illegal fishing and the associated economic losses, experiences in Guinea-Bissau and Indonesia have shown that such investments should be as low-cost and pragmatic as possible, in order for the operating costs of surveillance to be kept to sustainable levels after completion of Bank financing. For this reason, the Program focuses on incremental investments to show immediate results in reducing illegal fishing, such as leasing patrol vessels rather than procuring new boats. However, without such investments, continued illegal fishing can erode much of the value of the fish resources. Thus, investments in improved fisheries surveillance have a clear economic rationale for the Bank and for the countries. 51. Experiences and lessons learned in APL-A1. Recent experiences with the implementation of APL-A1 have shown that countries‟ capacity for implementation of fisheries governance reforms is generally weak, and requires significant technical assistance, training and implementation support. However, even in this context governance reforms are achievable, and the Program has already supported both Liberia and Sierra Leone to prepare and implement new fisheries regulations strengthening the framework for addressing illegal fishing. At the same time, experiences in Sierra Leone have provided empirical evidence that increased fisheries surveillance efforts can reduce illegal fishing activities in the targeted coastal fisheries, and that scarce resources among various agencies can and should be pooled in collective agreements to help reduce costs. This investment is designed to incorporate a similar institutional structure for fisheries surveillance in Guinea-Bissau, whereby multiple agencies collaborate under a common agreement in order to pool scarce resources and skills towards reducing illegal fishing, while at the same time investing in governance reforms to increase the contribution of the sector to economic growth. IV. IMPLEMENTATION A. Institutional and implementation arrangements 52. Overall project implementation capacity in Guinea Bissau is weak and is generally supplemented by project implementation units embedded in the responsible agencies, with oversight provided by multi-stakeholder national steering committees. The Fisheries Secretariat is no exception, facing chronic underfunding, resource constraints and a number of st aff whose salaries are often paid only after long delays. To address these challenges, implementation will be ensured through the establishment of a Policy and Planning Office (PPO) within the Fisheries Secretariat, staffed by external and local project management specialists working to support and train Government counterparts designated as responsible for implem enting each of the project components. The PPO will invest significantly in training and support to the Secretariat, and will report to the Director of Fisheries, as well as every six months to a multi-stakeholder National Steering Committee. The PPO will prepare an annual work program, budget, update of the 12 monitoring and evaluation indicators and procurement plan that would be reviewed with the National Steering Committee and transmitted to the Regional Coordination Unit at the Sub Regional Fisheries Commission. Overall responsibility for project implementation will therefore rest with the PPO. The Guidelines on Preventing and Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed by IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants", dated October 15, 2006 and updated January 2011, shall apply to the project. 53. At the regional level, APL-B1 will be coordinated by a Regional Coordination Unit (RCU), housed at the CSRP in Dakar and reporting to a Regional Steering Committee of the Fisheries Directors from each of the participating countries. As Guinea-Bissau joins the WARFP through this project, it would join the Regional Steering Committee at that time. The role of the RCU will be to: (i) support the harmonization of fisheries policy within the region (including conve ning regional technical committees of national experts to periodically review recurring policy issues); (ii) conduct monitoring and evaluation of Program investments and share information and results throughout the region; (iii) implement ongoing communication activities to raise awareness about the Program and implementation progress; and (iv) provide implementation support to each of the countries, including the coordination of regional procurement. The role of the Regional Steering Committee will be to oversee the activities of the RCU and to further coordination and communication between decision-makers in the countries. The RCU will provide constant implementation support to the PPO and Fisheries Secretariat, both in terms of fiduciary management as well as technical assistance and training in monitoring and evaluation. B. Results monitoring and evaluation 54. Currently, the sector monitoring system within the Fisheries Secretariat in Guinea-Bissau lacks the resources and coordination to adequately report on progress according to the Results Framework (see Annex 1). For this reason, Component 4 of the Program will support capacity building in monitoring and evaluation in PPO, through the support of the full time M&E expert in the Regional Coordination Unit (RCU). 55. Furthermore, in addition to providing training and ongoing implementation support in the form of a full-time M&E specialist at the RCU, the Program will provide direct support to the country in the actual data collection and analysis. Through the establishment of a national node of the „dashboard‟ of key fisheries statistics, linked to a regional node at the RCU, the Program will institutionalize the data collection and analysis needed to fill the key indicators of the dashboard. Through this activity, by the end of the Program, not only would the implementation of this Program be managed based on publicly available data on key sector indicators and statistics, but overall decision-making would be linked to this M&E as well. The „dashboard‟ will serve as the final repository for all key performance indicators data, as well as other key statistics for the sector, and the information will be presented regularly to the national steering committees, as well as the Regional Steering Committee, and form the basis of an annual M&E report submitted to the World Bank by each country (using a standard format). The RCU will be responsible for monitoring and evaluation of the regional activities. 13 56. In terms of the Program‟s key outcome indicators, baselines for APL-B1 have been established on the best available data, but will in some cases be re-measured/refined over the first two years of implementation. C. Sustainability 57. The project will invest significantly in building the capacity of the Fisheries Secretariat to sustainably govern and manage the country‟s fisheries. Emphasis will be placed on supporting the Secretariat to become a demand-based agency, which would enable fisheries users and stakeholders to take a greater responsibility in managing the sector. The Regional Coordination Unit of the WARFP will support the Fisheries Secretariat in this effort. 58. In terms of fisheries surveillance, the Program will support a pragmatic approach based on low-cost methods and technologies (e.g. leasing surveillance vessels instead of purchase), with a minimum of recurrent costs. In parallel, the Program will support the country to develop sustainable financing mechanisms for surveillance operations, through public expenditure reviews that demonstrate the economic benefits of these operations and the public revenues they generate. Furthermore, over the two phases of the Program, Guinea-Bissau will be supported to work with the other countries participating in the WARFP to develop a low -cost regional surveillance network that can capture economies of scale, and pool scarce resources. World Bank financing for recurrent costs of fisheries surveillance activities would gradually decline over the second phase of the Program. 59. In terms of phasing, Phase 1 of each APL will be designed to concentrate on investments, which would be deepened and expanded in Phase 2. However, the economic analysis conducted for the Program shows that the investment in APL-A1 would be economically justified even without the second phase. Similarly, the investments of Phase 1 are designed to empower local institutions and stakeholders to take a larger role in the fisheries, as these institutions would therefore be more sustainable after the end of Phase 1, and certainly after Phase 2. V. KEY RISKS 60. The overall risk rating for this project is „high‟, based on risks with potentially substantial impacts to the achievement of the development objective. The three key risks that have been considered during preparation and design, and will be monitored closely during implementation, are: (i) the risk that stakeholders who currently benefit from illegal fishing activities could exert significant influence over decision-makers to reduce prosecutions resulting from surveillance operations in Component 2, (ii) the risk that illicit drug trafficking could impact the fisheries sector and compromise the ability of the Government to conduct fisheries surveillance activities and enforce compliance with sector regulations; and (iii) the risk posed by low implementation capacity in the Fisheries Secretariat. 61. The first risk is that a lack of political will to prosecute fisheries infractions could undermine the success of surveillance activities supported in Component 2 of the project, and hence compliance with governance reforms needed to restore environmental sustainability and 14 economic profitability to the sector. As mentioned previously, the majority of illegal fishing activities occurring in the coastal fisheries targeted by the project are conducted by foreign industrial and small-scale vessels, whose owners could exert political pressure on decisionmakers not to prosecute infractions. To mitigate this risk, the project will support the transparent publication of information on infractions and prosecutions, as well as wider public monitoring, both at the national level and at the regional level through the use of peer review mechanisms . In addition, the project will institutionalize monitoring of these activities by the multi-stakeholder Steering Committee. 62. The second key risk is posed by the growing influence of drug trafficking in the region, and in particular in Guinea-Bissau. More specifically, there is a risk that this trafficking could impact the fisheries sector, if local fishing vessels in the region are increasingly used in carrying drug shipments, and result in confrontations between project-supported Government fisheries surveillance patrols and drug traffickers. Such confrontations could overstep the World Bank‟s mandate to only finance economic development activities. To mitigate this risk, all project financed activities in Component 2 will be required to follow the World Bank guidelines for investments in fisheries surveillance. These guidelines ensure that project-financed surveillance patrols are conducted only for the purpose of monitoring compliance with fisheries law s and regulations, and that clauses to this effect are included in the legal agreement. 63. The third risk arising from weak implementation capacity, will be mitigated through significant technical assistance to the Fisheries Secretariat via a Policy and Planning Office (PPO) of local and international experts established by the project, as well as training to Government counterparts designated to work from the PPO. In the medium term, Component 1 of the project includes a review of the institutional arrangements needed to implement the National Strategic Plan and its medium-term goals, with a definition of the statutes and organigram of all the fisheries public administrations such as the Fisheries Secretariat, including revised staff regulations and a human resource development plan (including job descriptions for needed positions in the department, career paths, a feasible incentive framework, etc.). Furthermore, the Regional Coordination Unit (RCU) of the WARFP, based in Dakar, will provide ongoing training and support to the Fisheries Secretariat via the Regional Coordinator, fiduciary management specialists and Monitoring and Evaluation Specialist based within the RCU. VI. APPRAISAL SUMMARY A. Economic and Financial Analysis 64. An economic and financial analysis of the project was conducted, based on a quantitative economic model developed for the country‟s fisheries and the proposed investments. The model uses the most recent sector statistics available to calculate: (i) the current net economic benefits from the fisheries, (ii) the expected net economic benefits from the fisheries over the next 30 years under a business-as-usual scenario, without the project, and (iii) the projected net economic benefits over that same time period as a result of the project investment. The net economic benefits for the fisheries include the return to owners, to Government and to participants 15 (including skippers/crew), after all variable and fixed costs as well as depreciation costs, capital cost, and the opportunity cost of labor are accounted. On the basis of the results of the analysis, the net economic benefits generated by the project investment accrue slowl y and modestly over the first five years after the beginning of implementation. However, by year 8 after the start of implementation the investments made by the project are estimated to generate an additional US$11 million per year in net economic benefits from the targeted fisheries for the country. By year 10, the project investment will have resulted in an additional US$14 million in net economic benefits being generated from the targeted fisheries (of which almost US$11million would be public revenues to the Government of Guinea-Bissau). The net present value of these benefits generated from the sector by year 10 is estimated to be roughly US$65 million, with an internal rate of return of 48 percent. Over 30 years, the net present value using a 10 percent discount rate will be over US$82 million, with an internal rate of return of over 50 percent. In terms of the distribution of the benefits, the Government will capture over 80 percent of the increased economic benefits from the use of the country‟s marine fish resources as a result of this project, while foreign small-scale and industrial fishing operations currently fishing illegally in the country would be reduced and therefore see the biggest negative impacts. B. Technical 65. The project has been developed based on recent biological and economic research clearly demonstrating that levels of fishing exploitation that are environmentally friendly (i.e. at levels below the maximum amount that can be harvested and still allow the stocks to regenerate to their previous size) are also much more economically profitable – providing higher levels of wealth for the country. In order to help Guinea-Bissau capitalize on these findings and achieve levels of fishing exploitation that are both more environmentally friendly and economically profitable, the project‟s approach builds upon global experiences with the promotion of fishing rights to control access to the fish resources, implemented through collaborative (or co-management) partnerships between resource users and the Government. These partnerships would be legally recognized and codified by the appropriate regulatory agency, clearly specifying the rights and management responsibilities of users. Results to date in both developed and developing countries have confirmed that this model is technically sound, and has generated both increased wealth from the resources, and helped reduce exploitation to more environmentally sustainable levels. C. Financial Management 66. The financial management assessment of the capacity of the Fisheries Secretariat has been carried out on December 2010, and found that the agency does not have the financial management systems in place to meet the World Bank‟s minimum requirements under OP/BP 10.02. The Ministry does not have the sufficient trained staff, nor the financial information systems needed to prepare basic financial monitoring reports. However, with the implementation of the following actions included in the financial management action plan presented in Annex 3, the financial management arrangements for the project will be acceptable: (i) development of an administrative and accounting manual of procedures; (ii) establishment of a sound computerized information system; and (iii) recruitment of an experienced accountant. The residual risk rating for Fisheries Secretariat is Medium-I. 16 D. Procurement 67. An assessment of the capacity of the Fisheries Secretariat to implement procurement actions for the project has been carried out on November, 2010, and the overall procurement risk for the project rated as High. This risk will be mitigated by: (i) maintaining low prior review thresholds by the World Bank; (ii) recruitment of a procurement specialist full-time to the PPO and financing extensive training of staff in procurement; and (iii) oversight by a recently-established Government procurement agency, the Direcção General dos Concursos Públicos (DGCP). Given that most of the contracts to be financed by the project are relatively small, with the implementation of these mitigation measures the overall procurement risk is expected to be Moderate. Procurement will be carried out in accordance with the World Bank‟s “Guidelines: Procurement under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits” published by the Bank in January 2011; and “Guidelines: Selection and Employment of Consultants by World Bank Borrowers” published by the Bank in January 2011, and the provisions stipulated in the Financing Agreement. For each contract to be financed by the project, the different procurement methods or consultant selection methods, the need for prequalification, estimated costs, prior review requirements, and time frame are agreed in the Procurement Plan. The Procurement Plan will be updated at least annually or as required to reflect the actual project implementation needs and improvements in institutional capacity. E. Social 68. By culture and tradition, Guinea-Bissau is not a fishing nation. Even in areas in close proximity to fishing grounds, such as the Bijagos Archipelago, local residents are generally farmers first, and fishers second. For this reason, local employment in the sector has always been relatively low, estimated at roughly 15,000 people. To date, the Government has pursued a strategy of essentially „renting‟ the resources to foreign users in exchange for public revenues, who constitute the vast majority of fishing operations. Eventually, with investments in local infrastructure (particularly a functioning port) and an improved investment climate, Guinea Bissau could also aim to move this offshore economy onshore, by providing incentives to vessels and companies to land their catch in the country and export from Bissau, and thereby create more local fish processing jobs. However, in the near to medium term, the first priority of the country‟s 2008 Strategy is to put in place the basic sector governance and management measures needed to ensure that the resources are used sustainably, and can provide the financial resources desired by the public sector. As such, the project is not expected to have significant social impacts, but rather supports the Government to more sustainably and profitably „rent‟ out the fisheries to foreign operators, increasing public revenues available for investment in the implementation of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper. The Regional Process Framework, which has been developed, reviewed and cleared by the World Bank for the first phase of the APL, has been provided to the Government of Guinea-Bissau for guidance on consultations and addressing any potential issues arising from restriction of access and impacts on livelihoods. In addition, the Government of Guinea-Bissau has committed itself to undertake, not later than September 30, 2012, a social assessment of the impact of the Project on the management of its fisheries resources upon terms of reference satisfactory to the Association and, on the basis thereon, implement measures satisfactory to the Association to minimize and mitigate adverse social impacts, if any, especially those affecting poor and vulnerable groups. 17 F. Environmental 69. Because this project aims to implement governance reforms to more sustainably manage Guinea-Bissau‟s fish resources, and to help restore the fish stocks where needed, most of the activities are expected to have positive impacts on the environment. The project is designed to help implement policies and institutional frameworks for fisheries resource manag ement. However, the Government of Guinea-Bissau has adopted, on January 28, 2011, an Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) setting forth the procedures to be used during Project implementation for the preparation and approval of a site-specific Environmental and Social Impact Assessment and/or Environmental and Social Management Plan for any site where there exists environmental and/or social issues of a type and scale sufficient to trigger the Association‟s safeguard policies, specifically in the case of small works supported by the project to support fisheries surveillance activities. 18 Annex 1: Results Framework and Monitoring WEST AFRICA: West Africa Regional Fisheries Program APL B1 Results Framework Core Project Development Objective (PDO): To strengthen the Guinea-Bissau’s capacity to govern and manage targeted fisheries, reduce illegal fishing and increase local value added to fish products. Description Cumulative Target Values1 Responsibility PDO Level Results Unit of Data Source/ (indicator Baseline Frequency for Data Indicators* Measure Methodology definition MTR YR5 Collection etc.) Number of Indicator One: - Coastal - Coastal demersal - Coastal demersal fish Annual Fish landings Fisheries Measures tons of fish Two overexploited demersal fish = fish = 283 tons = 310 tons data Secretariat total landings caught per fisheries showing signs 270 tons - Coastal shrimp = - Coastal shrimp = 401 of fish caught fishing vessel of recovery, as - Coastal 366 tons tons legally in per year measured by an shrimp = 348 - Cephalopods = - Cephalopods = 566 Guineaincrease in total catch tons 517 tons tons Bissau‟s per unit of fishing - Cephalopods waters effort2 = 492 tons Percentage Indicator Two: US$16.45 M3 0 5 Annual Fish catch and Fisheries Economic Increase in annual net first sale Secretariat model, based economic benefits from revenue data on fish targeted fisheries landings, price, effort CORE INDICATORS Total number of beneficiaries (of which female) Number (Percentage) 1.6 million (51.5%) 1.6 million (51.5%) 1.6 million (51.5%) 1 Annual Census National Statistics Unit The project aims to benefit the country as a whole, by supporting governance reforms to sustainably increase the sector‟s contribution to Cumulative target values are set to Mid-Term Review (MTR), estimated to take place in June 2013, and Year 5 of the project, based on the nature of the indicators. There are a number of ways to measure fishing effort for different types of fishing vessels. One measure that is readily available in Guinea-Bissau to provide baseline data is a measure of capacity, i.e. in this case the number of different types of fishing vessels. Other dimensions of fishing capacity such as vessel horsepower and types of fishing will also be considered and incorporated into project monitoring during the course of implementation. Thus, based on available data, this indicator measures tons of fish caught per industrial fishing vessel, per year. 3 Baseline net annual economic benefits of US$16.45 million equals the sum of US$0.78 million from the non-motorized artisanal sector, US$1.29 million from the motorized artisanal sector, and $14.38 million in license fees from the industrial sector. 2 19 economic growth. INTERMEDIATE RESULTS Intermediate Result (Component One): Clear principles and policies are established to increase the wealth from the fisheries through strengthened rights and equitable allocation of these rights, which balances economic efficiency and social benefits. Yes/No No Yes Yes Intermediate Result Annual M&E Reports PPO, Fisheries indicator One: Secretariat Fisheries Management Plans prepared and adopted for targeted fisheries Yes/No No Yes Yes Intermediate Result Bi-annual Fish catch and Fisheries indicator Two: effort Secretariat A biological and monitoring economic assessment of the health of targeted fish stocks is conducted Yes/No No Yes Yes Intermediate Result Bi-annual M&E Reports Fisheries Dashboard indicator Three: Secretariat will be linked An electronic to regional „dashboard‟ of key database environmental, social housed at the and economic fisheries CSRP statistics established at the Fisheries Secretariat Intermediate Result (Component Two): Illegal fishing is reduced and compliance with fisheries governance framework is increased. Intermediate Result indicator One: Fishing vessels observed by aerial/surface patrol or by radar and satellite monitoring, that are committing a serious infraction Percentage of vessels boarded, that are found to be committing a serious infraction Small-scale = 20% Industrial = 25% Small-scale = 15% Industrial = 17.5% Small-scale = 10% Industrial = 10% 20 Monthly reports from FISCAP Surveillance patrol logbooks and reports from Vessel Monitoring System, summarized in project M&E Reports Fisheries Secretariat % of total number of vessels boarded during routine surveillance patrols, that are found to be committing a serious infraction Intermediate Result indicator Two: Total patrol days at sea per month in targeted fisheries Intermediate Result indicator Three: A fisheries monitoring center is equipped and functional Number 11 days 18 days 22 days Annual M&E Reports based on patrol vessel log books Fisheries Secretariat Yes/No No Yes Yes Annual M&E Reports Fisheries Secretariat Intermediate Result (Component Three): An enabling environment established to help increase the value added locally to fish landed in Guinea-Bissau Intermediate Result indicator One: A competent sanitary authority (with laboratories equipped by the Project) is accredited for certification of fisheries products exports to the EU (Yes/No) Yes/No No No Yes 21 Annual M&E Reports Fisheries Secretariat serious infraction = any fishing infraction punishable by arrest according to current legislation, e.g. fishing w/o a license (the indicator will measure both arrests, and prosecution of penalties) Number of total patrol days/year Center should be staffed 24 hours per day, with electricity and communicatio n access to bases and vessels Intermediate Result (Component Four): Project is implemented according to monitoring and evaluation of results, in complement with other countries participating in the WARFP Yes/No No Yes Yes Regional database and Annual M&E Reports Regional „dashboard‟ of key Coordination environmental, Unit, CSRP economic and social fisheries statistics established at the CSRP 22 Annex II: Project Description 1. The project’s development objective is to strengthen the country‟s capacity to govern and manage targeted fisheries, reduce illegal fishing and increase local value added to fish products . The targeted fisheries include, among others: coastal demersal fish species (e.g. croakers, groupers, snappers, etc.), coastal shrimp and cephalopods (e.g. octopus and cuttlefish). These coastal fisheries are currently utilized largely by foreign industrial and small -scale fishers, and to a lesser extent by local small-scale fishers from the Bijagos Archipelago and coastal communities along the estuaries of the Buba, Cacheu and Cacine rivers, among others. The fishing grounds include all of the continental shelf area, most notably the Bijagos Archipelago and other sensitive fishing habitats within 12 nautical miles of the coast, where industrial trawl fishing is currently prohibited by law. 2. The rationale for this objective begins with the presence of significant and highly valuable marine fish resources in Guinea-Bissau, due to the country‟s unique geographic conditions which include a large continental shelf and numerous flows of nutrients from rivers as well as cold water (upwelling) currents from the sea. Because the country‟s waters favor breeding grounds for commercially important fish stocks, it has even been speculated that Guinea-Bissau is the region‟s „nursery ground‟ for many fish stocks. The total annual fish production from the country‟s waters is estimated to be as much as 250,000 tons, although reliable data and assessments are scarce. Similarly, a 2003 World Bank Economic and Sector Work (ESW) estimated that the gross value of this fish production is between US$60 to $90 million annually, although very little of this value is captured domestically. Nonetheless, the sector contributes some 7 to 10 percent of GDP and as much as 40 percent of the Government‟s annual budget (largely due to a foreign fishing agreement with the European Union that provides roughly EU 7 million per year to the Government in exchange for access to the fish resources for Eu ropean vessels). 3. The benefits to the country from the sector are however, far smaller than they could be. By culture and tradition, Guinea-Bissau is not a fishing nation. Even in areas in close proximity to fishing grounds, such as the Bijagos Archipelago, local residents are generally farmers first, and fishers second. Thus, local employment in the sector is estimated to be relatively low, around 15,000. However, even if the country‟s tremendous resources do not provide a significant source of livelihoods, they could provide a large source of public sector revenues, as the Government essentially „rents‟ the resources to foreign users. Eventually, with investments in local infrastructure (particularly a functioning port) and an improved investment climate, GuineaBissau could also aim to move this offshore economy onshore, by providing incentives to vessels and companies to land their catch in the country and export from Bissau, and thereby create more local fish processing jobs. 4. In the past, Guinea-Bissau has pursued a strategy of „renting‟ out its fisheries resources to foreign users, in exchange for public revenues. However, this strategy, and the public revenues generated by the sector, is unlikely to remain viable under the status quo. The country has never put in place the basic sector governance and management measures needed to ensure that the resources are used sustainably, or that the revenues generated from fishing are sustainable. As a result, despite the lack of any reliable data (since few fish catches from Guinea-Bissau‟s waters are actually reported to the country), anecdotal evidence from fishing companies indicates that 23 the fish catch per unit of fishing effort is declining, as the resources dwindle. The country has insufficient means to patrol its waters or enforce fishing regulations, and as a result widespread illegal fishing is also reported, essentially the theft of economic resources. On the basis of these challenges, the European Union reduced the value of its foreign fisheries agreement during the last negotiations (2007), and is unlikely to continue paying at the current rate after this agreement concludes in 2012. 5. In summary, according to the draft National Fisheries Strategy of the Government, there is consensus that the current model of fisheries development is exhausted. Effectively, and if it continues as in the past, the current regime of fisheries exploitation will not provide the financial resources desired by the public sector, will generate few benefits for the private sector, and will inevitably lead to the decline of the fish resources. 6. In a scenario for success in Guinea-Bissau’s fisheries, the sector could provide fish catches with an annual gross value of production of some US$191 million, yielding annual public revenues of almost US$30 million. Generating such benefits from the fisheries in Guinea-Bissau would require: (a) a fisheries administration structured according to its essential functions, present throughout the country, directed at the creation of a regulatory framework and business environment favorable to the development of industrial fisheries, of commercial artisanal fisheries and other complementary fishing activities; (b) a fisheries management system where decisions are increasingly based on knowledge of the state of exploitation of fish resources and of the economic and social conditions of the fisheries; (c) a fish inspection service recognized as the competent authority for certifying produce exported; (d) infrastructure established and operating normally in Bissau, supporting the integration of the industrial and artisanal fleets into the national economy; and (e) some fishing companies installed or being installed in the country, not merely as a base for fishing operations, but also for processing and export of fishing produce, provision of maintenance and supplies services, etc., associated or not with nationals. 7. Given limited implementation capacity, the project will be selective from the menu of options within the WARFP, and focus on the near-term priorities to help Guinea-Bissau sustainably increase the rents the fisheries can generate for the public sector, while laying the foundation for a gradual transition onshore of the „offshore‟ economy in the future. As such, the project will focus on reforms to the regulatory, legal, administrative and institutional framework governing the sector, to provide a sound and transparent foundation for increased rents from the fi sheries. At the same time, the project will support hard investments in fisheries surveillance, in order to allow the Government to exercise the minimum control over the resources necessary to implement legal and regulatory reforms and to extract higher and more sustainable rents, through reducing illegal fishing and „free-riders‟ on the system. The project will also provide technical assistance to the Government for the coordination of development aid and international agreements supporting the fisheries sector. Lastly, the project will provide support to reform the investment climate for companies to invest in onshore processing in the future. 8. More specifically, the project includes the following components, sub-components and activities: 24 9. Component 1: Good Governance and Sustainable Management of the Fisheries. ($0.3 M IDA, $1.7 M GEF). This component aims to build the capacity of the Government and stakeholders to develop and implement policies through a shared approach that would ensure that the fish resources are used in a manner that is environmentally sustainable, socially equitable and economically profitable. It will comprise the following two sub-components: (i) developing the capacity, rules, practices and procedures for good governance of the fisheries; and (ii) introducing fishing rights. 10. Activity 1.1 Strengthened policy and regulatory framework for the use of the fish resources. This activity will support the technical assistance and consultations needed to review and adapt the policy and regulatory framework for more sustainable and profitable use of the fish resources. More specifically, this activity would include: (i) a review of the institutional arrangements needed to implement the draft National Fisheries Strategy and its medium-term goals, with a definition of the statutes and organigram of all the fisheries public administrations, creation of a policy and planning unit within the Fisheries Secretariat, revised staff regulations and a human resource development plan (including job descriptions for needed positions in the department, career paths, a feasible incentive framework, etc.), among others; (ii) a study to determine which policy/regulatory frameworks need to be put in place to provide incentives for industrial fishing companies to invest in locally-based operations (nationally) in exchange for secured extended fishing rights (access); (iii) a revision of aspects of the general fisheries law necessary for implementing the National Fisheries Strategy, incorporating updated regulations concerning industrial fisheries and artisanal fisheries, as well as including the special regimes for conservation areas, co-management arrangements, vessel monitoring systems, and fish inspection and quality control; (iv) the development of revised regulations for the industrial fisheries as needed to implement the National Fisheries Strategy, MCS and Fish Inspection systems, including rules supporting the development and implementation of future fisheries management plans, the production of revised licensing arrangements that favor longer-term commitments and access rights 4 (including allocation mechanisms and criteria, rules of transfer of licenses where applicable, and a timetable and schedule of license fees), and the establishment of catch and reporting requirements for vessels; and (v) the preparation of annual fisheries management plans (FMPs) for the coastal shrimp, cephalopod and demersal fish species, which define total allowable catches (TACs) and longer-term access rights, including an update of the existing FMPs (created in 2010 by GoGB) for the industrial fisheries, and the production of new FMPs for the artisanal fisheries.5. The activity would be implemented by one consulting firm in a long-term technical assistance contract to the Fisheries Secretariat, with the related objective of 4 Current short-term (3 and 6 months for example) licenses would transition to longer -term access rights. This transition could potentially begin with the issuance of longer-term licenses similar to concessions (for a period of 5 to 10 years for example), linked to purchasing companies‟ agreements to invest in local landing and processing (together with broader Bank support for reforms to the investment climate as well as support from Component 3 for sanitary quality control). On the basis of this arrangement, the licenses would eventually transition to full access rights, secured for a longer period and transferable. 5 Together with the RCU, the project will work with the Governments and any user groups representing many of the foreign, small-scale fishers operating in Guinea-Bissau, for example from Senegal or Guinea. Where possible, the project will support the Government of Guinea-Bissau to work directly with user groups representing these foreign fishers, to help establish limited and secure access rights, and facilitate exports of products landed in Guinea -Bissau waters. 25 training counterparts within the Secretariat to continue to implement the revised policy and regulatory framework after the close of the project. 11. Activity 1.2 Assessment of the biological and economic status of key fish stocks. Management of fish resources is knowledge intensive and requires some fundamental information about the size of the resources and how they are being used (and by whom), as a sound and transparent basis for decision-making by all users. As such, this activity would support: (i) an assessment of coastal shrimp, cephalopod and demersal fish stocks (through initial and periodic research cruises for stock assessments in partnership with neighbors and regional organizations), with a special focus on the Common Management Zone shared by Guinea-Bissau and Senegal; (ii) training staff of the Fisheries Secretariat in fish catch and effort data collection techniques at landing sites and as observers on offshore fishing vessels (including foreign operators), in order to provide continuous monitoring of the exploitation status of the main fish stocks, to inform management decisions and the development of industrial and artisanal fisheries management plans; (iii) development of a statistical sampling system for the small-scale fisheries; (iv) a study of the projected impacts of climate change on the key fish stocks and on coastal communities, including potential adaptation and mitigation measures; (v) an evaluation of the status of the health of the coastal ecosystems underpinning the fish stocks, covering physical, chemical and biological aspects (qualitative and quantitative) and including the common management zone shared with Senegal; (vi) preparation and maintenance of a bioeconomic model analysis for the coastal shrimp, cephalopod and demersal fisheries; and (vii) a modeling exercise to test different management measures and determine which one would sustainably maximize the benefits in the fishery. This activity will also include financing for goods for research and monitoring and evaluation, as well as services, training of local researchers and initial operating costs. 12. Activity 1.3 Development of tools at the community, national and regional level to ensure transparency and accessibility of basic fisheries management information for controlling access to the resources. In each country, the WARFP is supporting increased transparency and accessibility to all stakeholders of key information for the governance and management of the use of the marine fish resources, following the model of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). This transparency is to be achieved through the development, installation and operation in each country of a „dashboard‟ of fisheries management indicators, comprising social, biological and economic statistics, which would be linked to a regional information technology platform. This activity would include support firstly for the development of the fundamental building blocks of the dashboard, i.e. a national: (i) fishing vessel/license registry, (ii) fish catch and effort database, and (iii) surveillance and infractions database. Information in this dashboard, i.e. an information system of these national databases, linked to a website, will include: (i) the fishing vessel/license registry (including both the industrial and artisanal fisheries); (ii) the number of licenses issued per fishery, per species and per access regime, as well as the total number of vessels licensed (including total number of months licensed, per gross ton); (iii) the total number of licensed gross tons of fishing vessels per fishery; (iv) the total fish catch per fishery (target species, by-catch and as far as possible discards); (v) the total fishing effort (in fishing days) per fishery; (vi) the number of fish surveillance patrol days; (vii) the total number of fishing vessels sited by surveillance patrols, as well as vessels boarded; (viii) the number of fishing vessels charged with an infraction (by type of infraction; (ix) the number of 26 infraction cases presented (i.e. the number processed or going to court, the number of penalties administered and the effectiveness of the application of the penalties; and (x) the volume of fish products sold on the local markets or for export (including their price and their origins). In each country, the Program will finance the development and implementation of the rules and procedures for all relevant institutions to follow to ensure that the needed information is collected and transmitted to the „dashboard‟, and that it is regularly maintained and updated, and shared publicly. Funds will be available for information/data collection and input (on the basis of research campaigns, local monitoring and evaluation described above), establishment of the database and software interface with the database (i.e. website) for the „dashboard‟, and maintenance and monitoring of the dashboard (including support for local operators). The Program will also support periodic dissemination of key „dashboard‟ information to key stakeholders including targeted fishing communities, translated into a user-friendly format. In each country, the national node of the „dashboard‟ will be linked to the regional information platform established at the Regional Coordination Unit in the CSRP. 13. Activity 1.4 Feasibility study for the nation-wide extension of pilot co-management partnerships for the small-scale fisheries. This activity builds on the lessons learned from the Coastal and Biodiversity Management Project, which established a reserved fishing zone in Buba, and identified Cacheu and Cacine as additional potential sites. The study would include a social assessment of fishing communities, and propose additional co-management partnerships such as the Reserved Fishing Zone in Buba, for the remainder of the coast al fisheries, based on specific conditions and regions of the country. This work will inform both fishing communities and the Government of the possibilities to establish and manage additional reserved fishing zones, with the potential to evolve into Territorial Use Rights in Fisheries (TURFs). 14. Component 2: Reduction of Illegal Fishing ($4.7 m IDA). The objective of this component is to reduce the illegal fishing activities threatening the sustainable management of the marine fish resources and the wealth they can generate for the region. More specifically, this component aims to improve the fisheries monitoring, control and surveillance (MCS) systems of participating countries and adapt them to the needs of fisheries management, within the framework of a coordinated approach between the participating countries. In implementing Component 2, the project will complement existing Government investments financed by the foreign fishing agreement with the European Union, in particular by supporting the procurement and operation of surveillance equipment and systems needed to reduce illegal fishing and implement the country‟s national fisheries surveillance strategy (2006). The project will favor low-cost, practical solutions wherever possible (including regional cooperation). Sub-Component 2.1 Monitoring, Control and Surveillance Systems ($4.5 m IDA) will entail: 15. Activity 2.1.1 Implementation of sustainable fisheries surveillance systems. This activity includes goods, works, technical assistance and operating costs for: (i) equipping the fisheries monitoring center to be managed by the autonomous Fisheries Surveillance Unit (FISCAP) that is linked to the Fisheries Secretariat, located in Bissau (adjacent to the current FISCAP headquarters); (ii) equipping/operation of coastal surveillance stations (in Cacheu, Bubaque, Caravelha and Cacine); (iii) sea patrols (through the rehabilitation and/or operation of FISCAP‟s 27 12 rapid response vessels for the inshore areas and the leasing of a larger surveillance vessel for offshore operations) and a satellite-based vessel monitoring system; and (iv) technical assistance and training of FISCAP staff to operate the systems, including harmonization and development of curriculum and training for fisheries inspectors and observers, as well as other personnel directly involved in fisheries surveillance operations. The fisheries monitoring center will be equipped to access the „dashboard‟ (see Component 1.1) with information on registered and licensed vessels, and will coordinate activities between the coastal surveillance stations. The center and the four coastal surveillance stations will be equipped with communications systems, a simple satellite-based vessel monitoring system (VMS) data reception platform, complete computer systems and office materials and vehicles. Based on a cost-efficiency analysis, the project will support the development of patrol capacity at sea, through the leasing of a sea patrol vessel to conduct surveillance of the coastal fisheries (up to 30 nautical miles of the coast). This vessel would be leased on a yearly basis for the first two years of the project, with operating costs (including maintenance, crew and fuel) included in the leasing agreement. Officers from FISCAP will be on board the vessel at all times while in the country‟s waters. Based on a review of the results of the efficiency of leased patrols after the first two years of implementation, the project could subsequently finance FISCAP, via the Fisheries Secretariat, to purchase a coastal surveillance patrol vessel. As mentioned previously, the project will also provide support for the rehabilitation, maintenance and operation of 12 smaller patrol vessels already owned by FISCAP and operated out of Cacheu, Bubaque, Cacine, Caravelha and Bissau. These vessels will be used for surveillance activities in the inshore areas (Bijagos Islands) and be equipped with updated communications systems. 16. Activity 2.1.2 Study to determine options for sustaining the operating costs of the MCS system over time, including government mechanisms. The study will focus on determining which government mechanisms will be used to fund the surveillance activities. More specifically, the work will propose a series of financing options, based at first on retaining a percentage of the revenue generated from catching/prosecuting illegal canoes/vessels, and subsequently receiving a percentage of the funds from increased license fees and fishing agreements. The assumption is that as MCS operations reduce illegal fishing, public revenues from fines on infractions will also decrease. However, effective MCS is also expected to lead to increased license fees and fishing agreements, from which future MCS operating costs would be drawn. Sub-Component 2.2 Strengthened Regional Collaboration for MCS ($0.2 m IDA) 17. This sub-component will include technical assistance to enable the CSRP to monitor and support the network of MCS systems among the countries. More specifically, the Project will provide technical assistance and training for the competent authority for surveillance in each country to implement the package of measures that have been adopted internationally as standards for port states. In addition, the program will support periodic reviews and audits of the fisheries surveillance activities by an independent panel of experts, financed in the participating countries by the World Bank. 18. Component 3: Increasing the Contribution of the Marine Fish Resources to the Local Economies ($0.4 m IDA). The objective of this component is to increase the benefits to West 28 Africa from the marine fish resources, by increasing the share of the value-added captured in the region. This component will support the following sub-components: 19. Activity 3.1 Support to the establishment of the Fish Inspection and Quality Control Department. The program will complement the efforts from the European Union (EU) to assist the sector on the creation of the capacity required for certifying fisheries‟ products exp orts through: (i) the provision of the goods, laboratory equipment (and other), technical assistance and long-term training needed to establish a certified competent sanitary authority for the export of fish products to the European market, as well as more broadly the development of relevant protocols and standards for quality and traceability. This effort will build on (complement) prior European Union investments in the sector; (ii) assistance to the Fish Inspection and Quality Control Department in developing annual work plans and budgets. 20. Activity 3.2 Enabling environment in order to obtain higher values from local fish products. The program will provide training (including education materials) to fishers to: (i) improve product handling, processing/marketing, transport practices and sanitary measures, as well as maintenance of landing site equipment; and (ii) understand how to access local commercial micro-finance opportunities in order to purchase fish preservation equipment (ice boxes, freezers) and maintain their boats and fishing gear in good working order. 21. Component 4: Coordination, Monitoring and Evaluation and Program Management ($0.6 m IDA, $0.3 m GEF). The objective of this component is to support the countries to implement the Program in the context of the CSRP Strategic Action Plan, and to monitor and evaluate results. This component will support the following sub-components: Sub-Component 4.1 National Implementation ($0.3 m IDA, $0.3 m GEF): 23. This sub-component includes goods, works, technical assistance, training and operating costs for a Policy and Planning Office (PPO), embedded within the Fisheries Secretariat and staffed by external and local project management specialists. The PPO will report each six months to a multi-stakeholder National Steering Committee. The PPO will prepare an annual work program, budget, update of the monitoring and evaluation indicators and procurement plan that would be reviewed with the National Steering Committee and transmitted to the Regional Coordination Unit. Activities within this sub-component will include: (i) technical assistance for national implementation, and (ii) operating costs for national implementation. Sub-Component 4.2 Regional Coordination ($0.3 m IDA): 24. This sub-component includes technical assistance and consultations for the Regional Coordination Unit at the CSRP, in order to: (a) support the harmonization of fisheries policy within the region; (b) conduct monitoring and evaluation of Program investments and share information and results throughout the region, including via the GEF‟s IW:LEARN program, which may include participation of project and governmental representative staff to relevant regional IW:LEARN conferences as well as the biennial International Waters Conferences that will be hosted during the projects implementation and creation of a website following the IW:LEARN toolkit guidance; (c) implement ongoing communication activities to raise 29 awareness about the Program and implementation progress; and (d) provide implementatio n support to the country, including the coordination of regional procurement. Component 1. Good Governance & Sustainable Management of the Fisheries ($0.3 M IDA, $1.7 M GEF) (Part 1 of the IDA Financing Agreement and GEF Grant Agreement) 1.1 Technical assistance Review and revise institutional arrangements for sector $0.6 M GEF and consultations for the governance development of the Revision of aspects of the general fisheries law and regulations capacity, rules, Development of revised regulations for industrial fisheries, procedures and practices including licensing arrangements and fish catch and effort for good governance of reporting the fisheries Preparation of annual fisheries management plans for the industrial coastal shrimp, cephalopod and demersal fisheries and production of FMPs for the artisanal (artisanal) fisheries Study to determine which policy/regulatory frameworks need to be put in place to incentivize industrial fishing companies to invest on land (nationally) in exchange for secured extended fishing rights (access) Technical assistance to the Government for the coordination of development aid and international/private sector agreements supporting the fisheries sector. 1.2 Technical assistance, Research cruises in collaboration with regional partners to assess $1.0 M GEF training, goods, services key fish stocks and operating costs for Support for continuous monitoring of the exploitation status of assessments of key fish the main fish stocks stocks Building a statistical sampling system for the artisanal fisheries Evaluation of the status of the ecosystem in the coastal areas Bioeconomic model analysis for the coastal shrimp, cephalopod and demersal fisheries Modeling exercise to test different manage ment measures and determine which one would sustainably maximize the benefits in the fishery 1.3 Fisheries information Installation and operation of fisheries „dashboard‟ database and $0.3 M IDA systems information collection 1.4 Feasibility study on Study of how successful co-management arrangements started $0.1 M GEF extending the artisanal under the Coastal and Biodiversity Management Project can be fisheries co-management adapted to the different regions/communities of the country, arrangements to the particularly concerning the potential for reserved fishing zones to whole country evolve into TURFs. Component 2. Reduction of Illegal Fishing ($4.7 M IDA) (Part 2 of the IDA Financing Agreement and GEF Grant Agreement) Sub-Component 2.1 Monitoring, Control and Surveillance (MCS) Systems ($4.5 M IDA) (a) Leasing or purchasing naval and airborne equipment/time $4.5 M IDA (b) Procuring MCS equipment to coastal surveillance stations (including VMS equipment to track vessels) (c) Establishing the fisheries monitoring center, which will coordinate activities between coastal surveillance stations at the National and Regional level (facility dedicated to fisheries surveillance) (d) Training and technical assistance to operators of fisheries monitoring center, and MCS systems Sub-Component 2.2 Strengthened Regional Collaboration for MCS ($0.2 M IDA) Support to the CSRP to monitor MCS activities and provide regional $0.2 M IDA coordination 30 Component 3. Increasing the Contribution of Marine Fish Resources to Local Economies ($0.4 M IDA) (Part 3 of the IDA Financing Agreement and GEF Grant Agreement) 3.1 Complement the Provision of the goods, laboratory $0.3 M IDA efforts from the EU to equipment (and other), technical assistance assist the sector on the and long-term training needed to establish a creation of the capacity certified competent sanitary authority for required for certifying the export of fish products to the European fisheries‟ products market, as well as more broadly the exports development of relevant protocols and standards for quality and traceability. Assistance to the Fish Inspection and Quality Control Department in developing annual work plans and budgets 3.2 Enabling Training in fish handling and conservation $0.1 M IDA environment for practices, as well as in accessing local obtaining higher values commercial micro-finance for local fish products Component 4. Coordination, Monitoring and Evaluation and Program Management ($0.6 M IDA, $0.3 M GEF) (Part 4 of the IDA Financing Agreement and GEF Grant Agreement) Sub-Component 4.1 National Implementation ($0.6 M IDA) Technical assistance for PPO to implement the Project $0.3 M IDA Operating costs for national implementation $0.3 M GEF Sub-Component 4.2 Regional Coordination ($0.3 M IDA) Technical assistance for Regional Coordination Unit at the CSRP, $0.3 M IDA Fisheries Information Systems („dashboard‟) 31 Annex 3: Implementation Arrangements 1. Project institutional and implementation arrangements. Overall project implementation capacity in Guinea Bissau is weak and is generally supplemented by project implementation units embedded in the responsible agencies, with oversight provided by multi -stakeholder national steering committees. The Fisheries Secretariat is no exception, facing chronic underfunding, resource constraints and a number of staff whose salaries are often paid only after long delays. To address these challenges, implementation will be ensured through the establishment of a Policy and Planning Office (PPO) located within the Fisheries Secretariat, staffed by external and local project management specialists working to support and train Government counterparts designated as focal points from each of the relevant departments and collaborating autonomous agencies. The PPO will be located within the Fisheries Secretariat and composed of: (i) a Project Coordinator; (ii) a fisheries monitoring, control and surveillance (MCS) specialist responsible for implementation of Component 2; (iii) an Accountant, (iv) a Procurement Specialist, and (v) an Administrative Assistant, who will perform auxiliary work for the accountant and eventually second the procurement specialist. A significant amount of time and effort will be invested by the PPO in training and support to the wider Secretariat as part of its terms of reference. In the medium term, through Component 1 of the project the PPO will support a review of the institutional arrangements needed to implement the National Strategic Plan and its medium-term goals, with a definition of the statutes and organigram of all the fisheries public administrations such as the Fisheries Secretariat, including revised staff regulations and a human resource development plan (including job descriptions for need ed positions in the department, career paths, a feasible incentive framework, etc.). 2. The PPO will report to the Director of Fisheries, and will report every six months to a multistakeholder National Steering Committee. The National Steering Committee was created on September 13, 2010 by Despacho N° 35/GSEP/2010, and will be chaired by the Director of Fisheries. The National Steering Committee includes the following members: Secretariat of Fisheries; Ministry of Finance; Ministry of the Economy, Planning and Regional Integration; Ministry of Infrastructure; Ministry of Commerce, Tourism and the Industry; Secretariat of Transport; Secretariat of the Environment; Navy; Institute for Biodiversity and Protected Areas (IBAP); National Association of Artisanal Fishermen (ANAPA); National Association of Fish Processors (ANEP); and National Association of Women Fish Traders (AMAE). The PPO will prepare an annual work program, budget, update of the monitoring and evaluation indicators and procurement plan that would be reviewed with the National Steering Committee and transmitted to the Regional Coordination Unit at the Sub-Regional Fisheries Commission. 3. At the regional level, APL-B1 will be coordinated by a Regional Coordination Unit (RCU), housed at the CSRP in Dakar and composed of a Regional Coordinator, a Monitoring and Evaluation Specialist, and fiduciary management specialists. The RCU reports to a Regional Steering Committee of the Fisheries Directors from each of the participating countries. As Guinea-Bissau joins the WARFP through this project, it would join the Regional Steering Committee at that time. The role of the RCU will be to: (i) support the harmonization of fisheries policy within the region (including convening regional technical committees of national experts to periodically review recurring policy issues); (ii) conduct monitoring and evaluation of 32 Program investments and share information and results throughout the region; (iii) implement ongoing communication activities to raise awareness about the Program and implementation progress; and (iv) provide implementation support to each of the countries, including the coordination of regional procurement. The role of the Regional Steering Committee will be to oversee the activities of the RCU and to further coordination and communication between decision-makers in the countries. The RCU will provide constant implementation support to the PPO and Fisheries Secretariat, both in terms of fiduciary management as well as technical assistance and training in monitoring and evaluation. 4. Financial Management. A financial management assessment of the Fisheries Secretariat implementing the project was conducted, in compliance with the Financial Management Manual for World Bank-Financed Investment Operations that became effective on March 1, 2010 and AFTFM Financial Management Assessment and Risk Rating Principles. The assessment found that the Fisheries Secretariat‟s financial management systems are not in place, noting the following capacity constraints: (i) lack of an accounting information system to prepare the accounts and financial report of the project; (ii) lack of administrative and accounting manual of procedures; (iii) possibility of mingling funds; (iv) lack of capacity of Supreme Audit Institution to conduct audit in conformity with internal audit standard (IAS); (v) weakness and credibility in the elaboration of annual budget and (vi) lapses in the internal control systems. In addition, the Fisheries Secretariat does not have the financial staff trained to prepare the accounts of the project. The assessment concluded that the financial management arrangements do not meet the Bank‟s minimum requirements under OP/BP 10.02. However, with the implementation of the financial management action plan presented in this annex, the financial management arrangements for the project will be acceptable. The residual risk rating for Fisheries Secretariat is Medium-I. 5. Country Issues. Due to the social and political conflict situation in the country, the Country Financial Accountability Assessment (CFAA) carried out by the World Bank in March 2006 has not yet been implemented. However some studies conducted by donors suggest that the Government has made considerable progress in the area of financial management since 2006. However, a few aspects have been identified for further strengthening, including the need to improve the budget classification system; increase the computerization of financial management systems; improve accounting that will eventually move towards an accrual basis; and improve the quality of expenditure reporting through Interim Financial Reports. As such, the Bank has taken special measures to ensure adequate financial management of the projects. Project management units are often established to manage IDA-financed projects and Bank funding is following special mechanisms to mitigate fiduciary risks. 33 6. Summary of Risk Analysis and mitigation measures. Risk Risk Rating I. Inherent Risks: 1. Country Level Poor Governance and corruption and great constraints in the budget cycle. 2. Entity Level Fisheries Secretariat does not have the capacity to implement and monitor a project financed by World Bank 3. Project Level The project will involve two sources of financing (IDA and GEF) and while technical design may be complex, the financial management and procurement arrangements are not. Risk Mitigation Measure Condi tionality S The risk arising from weak implementation capacity will be mitigated through significant technical assistance to the Fisheries Secretariat via a Policy and Planning Office established by the project, as well as training. The PPO will assume the overall responsibility for accounting for the project funds. M-I FM risks under each of the FM arrangements have been identified and mitigated. In addition, the supervision strategy for this project will monitor the risks arising out of the design complexity of the project to timely address issues arising. M-L II. Control Risks: 1. Budgeting Budget credibility in Guinea Bissau is a major challenge in view of falling revenues and expenditures. Budget for SSF is prepared manually in Excel. Residual Risk Rating M-I Medium Impact Annual budgets and work plans will be prepared by the PPO according the calendar of preparation of budget and submitted to the Bank by December 10 of each year. The new accounting software has a budget module and will prepare and monitor the project‟s budget. 2. Accounting Due to the lack of a comprehensive, The PPO will install appropriate integrated budgeting and accounting software and will accounting system and manual of elaborate an administrative and procedures, the maintenance of accounting manual of procedures. books of accounts, correctness and The activities to be financed by the reliability of data may be hampered project are clearly identified. if systems are not well developed and structured. 3. Internal Control & Internal Audit Lapses in Internal Controls in the The Bank will pay a particular Secretariat of fish could be source attention to the implementation by 34 Yes. Financial Convenants. M-I No. M-I No. of potential challenges. 4. Flow of Funds The possibility of mingling funds is high and the tracking of project expenditures is not evident. 5. Reporting The reporting system of Secretariat of fishing is not consistent and the periodicity is not regular. 6. Auditing Reporting The system of external control of Supreme Audit Institution is not exhaustive and periodic in Guinea Bissau and this institution doesn‟t conduct an external audit in conformity with the World Bank standards. the PPO of an efficient internal control system based on the instruction of the administrative and accounting manual of procedure to be developed. M-I Segregated designated accounts will be opened in the commercial bank in terms acceptable to the Bank, to track the project expenditures. Those designated accounts will be managed by the Treasury Department of the Ministry of Finance and the PPO. M-L The PPO will prepare quarterly Interim Financial Reports (IFRs) and Annual Financial Statements of the project in format and substance acceptable to the Bank and agreed during negotiations. The IFR format was agreed during negotiations M-L External auditor with qualification and experience satisfactory to the World Bank will conduct an annual audit of the project‟s financial statements. The external audit firm will be selected under a competitive basis and acceptable terms of reference. No M-I Overall Risk H – High M-I – Medium-I M-I M-L – Medium-L L – Low 7. For purposes of comparing the new (ORAF) and current FM risk rating scales used for PRIMA, the table below is referred too. New FM Risk scale Low Medium Likelihood Medium Impact High Risk Rating scale Current FM Risk scale Low Moderate Substantial High 8. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements. With respect to the proposed project, it will be implemented by a Policy and Planning Office (PPO) within the Fisheries Secretariat, staffed by external and local project management specialists. The PPO will report each six months to a multi-stakeholder National Steering Committee. The PPO will prepare an annual work program, budget, update of the monitoring and evaluation indicators and procurement plan that would be reviewed with the National Steering Committee and transmitted to the Regional Coordination 35 Unit at the Sub-Regional Fisheries Commission. The PPO will be the “Accounting Officer” for the project, assuming the overall responsibility for accounting for the project funds. 9. Budgeting Arrangements. The PPO will prepare annual budgets. This budget will be based on an agreed annual work program, annual procurement plan and closely monitored during implementation. The beneficiaries will draw up a detailed budget for activities to be carried out. This budget will be consolidated by the PPO and after its validation by the Fisheries Secretariat, and the national Program Steering Committee and will be submitted to the World Bank for review, copied to the RCU. 10. Accounting Arrangements. The West African Accounting System (SYSCOA), the approved accounting standards in use in the West Africa Economic Monetary Union (WAEMU) will be applied. The grants account will be accounted by the Project on a cash basis. This will be documented with appropriate records and procedures to track commitments and to safeguard assets. Accounting records will be maintained in local currency (FCFA). The Chart of accounts will facilitate the preparation of relevant quarterly and financial statements including information on the total project expenditures, the financial contribution from IDA and GEF, and expenditures by component. 11. An Administrative and Accounting manual of procedures will be developed and will provide all the required details on accounting and financial procedures. It will set out in particular the flow of accounting and financial information between the PPO, the Treasury Department, the World Bank and the beneficiaries as well as the modalities and formats of periodic reports. 12. The PPO will establish a sound computerized information system that provides for adequate segregation of functions, capable of recording all accounting transactions, and reporting correctly all assets and liabilities of the project. This system will provide the following data: un -Audited Interim Financial Report (IFR), financial statements, withdrawal applications, Bank reconciliations and all financial reports needed. The books of accounts will also be maintained electronically in this software. 13. Internal control and internal auditing arrangements. The Accountant in the PPO will be responsible for ensuring that the control environment for implementation is adequate and satisfactory. The duties and responsibilities of the Accountant will be documented in the Administrative and Accounting Manual and include reviewing the internal control systems of all projects manage by PPO. The Accountant also prepares quarterly work plan and audit programs to facilitate review of the individual project. Quarterly report will be prepared and submitted to the steering committee and the World Bank. 14. Disbursements. Two separate designated accounts (IDA and GEF) in FCFA will be opened in the commercial bank on terms and conditions acceptable to the Bank. Those Accounts will be managed by the director of Treasury in coordination with the Directorate of Fisheries. The DA will be used for all payments financed by the Grants as indicated in the specific terms and condition of the Financing Agreements. Transaction-supporting documentation for Statement of Expenditures (SOE) will be retained and kept in a safe place by the PIU, which has the primary responsibility for maintaining all documentation. The Disbursement Letter, which will form an integral part of the Credit and the Grant Agreements, will provide details of the disbursement methods, required documentation, DA ceiling and minimum application size. These will also be discussed and agreed during negotiations of the Agreements. 36 Funds Flow Arrangements. Funds flow arrangements for the project (through the bank accounts above) are as follows: 15. PPO will prepare a four-month cash flow forecast based on agreed work plans then submit the first withdrawal application request to the Bank (IDA). IDA will process the withdrawal application and disburse funds to the Designated Account in FCFA. All project expenditures can be paid from the Designated Account, while the Disbursement letter will have provisions for direct payments, reimbursements and special commitments. Every month, the PPO will prepare withdrawal application request regarding the Account to submit to IDA. 37 Flow of Funds and Information Diagram World Bank Credit Account (Washington) W. A. PPO IFR Designated Account (Commercial Bank) Report/Invoices Consultants & Suppliers Legend Payments to suppliers and consultants Transfers of Funds Direct Payments IFR, Withdrawal Applications Signature of Convention Transmission of invoices, Implementation Reports 38 16. Allocation of Financing Proceeds. Finance Category Project Component Works, goods, nonconsulting services, consultants‟ services, training, , and Operating Costs under Sub-Components 2.2 and 4.2 Amount of IDA Grant Amount of GEF Grant Allocated (US$ M) Allocated (US$ M) 0.5 Parts 2.3 and 4.2 of the Project Works, goods, nonconsulting services, consultants‟ services, training, Lease Payments and Operating Costs: Component 1, Sub- 4.6 Component 2.1 (except purchase of a patrol vessel), Component 3 and Sub-Component 4.1 2.0 Parts 1, (except 2.1.1 (c)(iii)), 2.2, 3 and 4.1 of the Project Goods under 2.1.1 (c)(iii) TOTAL Part Sub-Component 2.1 0.9 (purchase of a patrol vessel only) 6.0 2.0 17. Advance to the Designated Account. This method will be the main disbursement method for the project. All replenishment or reimbursement applications will be submitted monthly or when the Designated Account is reduced by one-third, whichever comes first. All replenishment or reimbursement applications will be fully documented except for contracts under the prior review threshold to be determined during the procurement assessment. SOE documentation will be retained at the PPO for review by Bank staff and auditors. 18. Special Commitments and Direct Payments. Special Commitments using irrevocable letters of credit can be used as disbursement method for the project. Direct payments to suppliers for works, goods and services upon the borrower‟s request, may also be used for the project. Hence challenges faced with disbursing through the designated account at country level will be minimized. 19. Report-based Disbursements. The Project will initially use the transaction-based disbursement method and may switch to IFR based disbursements once the PPO has become fully familiar with the latter method. IDA will make the initial disbursement to the project after receiving a withdrawal application with a six months cash flow forecast. This withdrawal application should be prepared within one month after project effectiveness. Thereafter, IDA will disburse into the respective Designated Account based on quarterly IFRs, which would 39 provide actual expenditure for the preceding quarter (3 months) and cash flow projections for the next 2 quarters (6 months). The IFR together with the Withdrawal Application (WA) will be reviewed by the Bank‟s Financial Management Specialist (FMS) and approved by the Task Team Leader (TTL) before the request for disbursement is processed by the Bank‟s Loan Department. The ceiling of the Designated Account will be flexible, and will be based on four months of expenditures under transaction-based disbursements. 20. The IDA Disbursement Letter will provide details about each of the above disbursement arrangements. 21. Financial Reporting Arrangements. The PPO will prepare and provide to the World Bank a quarterly un-audited Interim Financial Report (IFR) and an Annual Financial Statements in form and substance satisfactory to the World Bank. The IFR report will: (a) Set forth sources and uses of funds for the Project, both cumulatively and for the period covered by said report, showing separately funds provided under the Credit, and explain variances between the actual and planned uses of such funds; (b) Describe use of funds by activity/components, both cumulatively and for the period covered by said report, and explain variances between the actual and planned Project implementation. 22. Each IFR shall be furnished to the Association not later than 45 days after each subsequent calendar quarter, and shall cover such calendar quarter. Formats for the IFR and financial statements will be defined before negotiations and will be attached to the disbursement letter. 23. The IFRs submitted to the Bank will have a section on Financial Reporting and Disbursement containing the following: 24. Reporting Section includes: Statement of Sources and Uses of Funds; and Statement of Uses of Funds by Project Activity/Component. 25. Disbursement Section includes: Designated Account (DA) Activity Statement; Bank Statements for both the Designated and Project Account; Summary Statement of DA Expenditures for Contracts subject to Prior Review; and Summary Statement of DA Expenditures not subject to Prior Review. 26. The Annual Financial Statements will be prepare in comply with International Accounting Standards (IAS) and World Bank requirements. The Financial Statements will comprise of: (a) A Statement of Sources and Uses of Funds; (b) A statement of Commitments; (c) The Accounting Policies Adopted and Explanatory Notes; (d) A Management Assertion that Program funds have been expended for the intended purposes as specified in the relevant Grant agreements. 40 27. The PPO will be required to produce, no later than June 30 of the following fiscal year, audited annual financial statements. These financial statements will be subject to periodic audits (see paragraph on audits). 28. Auditing Arrangements. External auditors with experience and qualifications satisfactory to the Bank will be appointed to conduct an annual audit of the Project‟s financial statements. This audit will be carried out in accordance with the International Standards on Auditing (ISA), and will include such tests and controls, as the auditor considers necessary under the circumstances. Besides expressing an opinion on the Project‟s financial statements in accordance with ISA, the auditors will be expected to prepare report on internal controls, management letters giving observations and comments, and providing recommendations for improvements in accounting records, systems, controls and compliance with financial covenants in the Financing Agreement of the Bank. The audit report and opinions on the financial statements including the management letter and management response shall be submitted to IDA within six months of the end of the Recipients fiscal year (June 30 of the close of the fiscal year). The audit TORs will be prepared and agreed during negotiations. The auditors shall be appointed within 4 months after effectiveness. 29. Financial Management Action Plan. The following actions need to be taken in order to enhance the financial management arrangements for the Project: Actions to be followed up during implementation Develop an administrative and accounting manual of procedures Establish a sound computerized information system Hire an experienced accountant Prepare the audit TOR Deadline 1. April 15, 2011 2. June 30, 2011 3. April 15, 2011 4. Four months by effectiveness 30. Financial Covenants. Financial covenants are the standard ones as stated in the Financing Agreement Schedule 2, Section II (B) on Financial Management, Financial Reports and Audits and Section 4.09 of the General Conditions. 31. Financial Management Supervision Plan. Supervision of the financial management arrangements will be risk based. In this regard, in view of the overall financial management residual risk rated for this project, the financial system will be reviewed and assessed at the country level. Given the medium impact (3) risk rating associated with existing Financial Management Arrangements one on-site supervision visit will be conducted each year by the Bank Central Office Financial Management System to commensurate with the risk levels. This on-site supervision will be complemented by desk review of the quarterly IFRs submitted to IDA at the end of each calendar quarter and a sample physical verification progress. In addition, the FM team will annually also review the audited project annual financial statements and the auditor‟s report and management letter thereon. 32. Conclusion of the financial management assessment. The conclusion of the assessment is that the financial management arrangements meet the Bank‟s minimum requirements unde r OP/BP10.02. The overall residual risk rating for SSF is Medium-I hence the project will have an on-field supervision at least twice a year. The financial management action plan outlines the mitigating measures, which, if implemented, would strengthen the financial management arrangements. 41 33. Procurement. Procurement will be carried out in accordance with the World Bank‟s “Guidelines: Procurement under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits” published by the Bank in January 2011; and “Guidelines: Selection and Employment of Consultants by World Bank Borrowers” published by the Bank in January 2011, and the provisions sti pulated in the Legal Agreement. The general description of various items under different expenditure category is described below. For each contract to be financed by the Grants, the different procurement methods or consultant selection methods, the need for prequalification, estimated costs, prior review requirements, and time frame are agreed between the Borrower and the Bank project team in the Procurement Plan. The Procurement Plan will be updated at least annually or as required to reflect the actual project implementation needs and improvements in institutional capacity. 34. National procurement regulatory framework. The regulatory framework in Guinea-Bissau is governed by the national procurement Code which has been tested in five line Ministries; it was agreed to extend its application to additional key line ministries and train the main users during a short period before its generalization. However, this action has not been completed because there were no means to do it and in addition to this, there was a political and military conflict at the same period. No Country Procurement Assessment and Review (CPAR) has been conducted recently in the country, but a PEMFAR exercise has been conducted in FY09. Following this PEMFAR, the Government and the Bank agreed on a short and medium terms action plan that will improve the efficiency and transparency of the national system, by reducing political interference and strengthening internal and external controls. The new procurement institutional framework will be strengthened with (i) a new Regulatory Body (ORCP) managed by representatives from the private and public sectors and the civil society, and responsible for policy, handling of complaints and audits; (ii) a strengthened procurement Directorate (DGCP) for internal controls; and (iii) a new Central Procurement Agency responsible for all procurement transactions. While waiting for the new procurement institutional framework to be fully operational, the Government has issued a procurement notice to enforce the DGCP‟s controls. 35. While waiting for the new procurement institutional framework to be fully operational, the Bank and the Government agreed on: (i) not increasing the prior review thresholds; and (ii) enforcing the DGCP‟s internal controls of procurement transactions. 36. The political environment of the country is still fragile. However, there is a strong commitment from the Government to: (i) set up a new procurement institutional framework, and strengthen/enforce ex-ante reviews by the DGCP, and (ii) maintain and strengthen the capacities of the MIRP‟s PIU as a mitigation measure at the level of the project. 37. The above-mentioned Code describes National Competitive Bidding (NCB) as the "open competitive bidding" method (reference to the provision 12 of the procurement Code, which mentions this method as the "Concurso Público Aperto"), i.e. “the open competitive bidding”. 38. In reference to the Code, under the provisions which provide the description of this method, some limitations are not acceptable to the Bank. These are, among others: the decision that the Code does not apply to small contracts defined as those under US$10,600 (equivalent to CFA 5 42 million at the rate of 1 US$ for CFA 470) for goods and services (services are generally consulting services), and US$21,200 (equivalent to CFA 10 million) for works (Provision 8.1 of the Code); the absence of review of those small contracts by DGCP (Direcção Geral dos Concursos Publicos - General Directorate for Public Procurement) which is the procurement control body in Guinea-Bissau (Provision 9 of the code); the use of domestic preference without any indication of a possible limitation (Provision 11 of the code); the possible restriction of the competition process in reference to the provision 25 of the Code which indicates that bidders must satisfy the fiscal and para-fiscal obligations of the country; the absence of a clear obligation that the award criteria must be listed among the minimum information required to be inserted in the bidding documents (Provision 20 of the code); there is no clear definition of the contract award criteria (Provision 33.1 of the code mentions only that the contract will be awarded to the bidder who offers the best bid ("melhor proposta" as mentioned in Portuguese)); the absence of indications on the obligation to assess the bidder's qualification prior to the contract award (Provision 33.1 of the code); the minimum time frame for bid submission is very low (Provision 27 of the code indicates that minimum time frame is 15 days); the possibility for the contracting authority to request that bids be presented in two internal envelopes while the Code indicate s no distinction between works/goods and consulting services (Provision 30.7 of the code). 39. With regard to those provisions, in order that the NCB procedure becomes acceptable to IDA to be used for NCB, the following special requirements will be taken into account : (i) four weeks will be provided for preparation and submission of bids, after the issuance of the Invitation for Bids or availability of the bidding documents, whichever is later; (ii) for all procurement of goods and works, the Bank‟s Standard Bidding Documents (SBD) and bidding documents if any, acceptable to the Bank will be used and modified in order to meet the exceptions authorized under NCB; (iii) bids will be advertised in national newspapers with wide circulation; (iv) bids will be presented and submitted only in one internal envelope (no system with two envelopes will be used); (v) bid evaluation and bidder qualifications criteria will be clearly specified in the bidding documents; (vi) no preference margin will be granted to domest ic bidders; (vii) eligible firms, including foreign firms, will not be excluded from the competition; (viii) the procedures will include the publication of the results of evaluation and of the award of the contract, and provisions for bidders to protest; (ix) the project implementation agency will work with borrower's relevant authority in order to require that procurement audit will be included in the terms of reference of financial audits of the project; and (x) even though the Code doesn't apply to small contracts, the procedures will require that for such contracts, a competitive method be used (reference to other methods described in the paragraphs 8 and 9 of this annex. In addition, any other adjustment will be taken into account when the Bank determin es during the project execution as necessary in order to assure economy, efficiency, transparency, and broad consistency with the provision included in the Section I of the Guidelines, will be amended. 40. Procurement of Works: No civil works are foreseen for this project. 41. Procurement of Goods: Goods procured under this project would include: under Component 1, (i) equipments for institutional strengthening; and (ii) IT platform for Dashboard under Component 2 (i) the supply of equipment for surveillance of vessels including VMS technology; under Component 3 (i) office laboratory equipments and under Component 4 (i) office vehicles; (ii) office furniture, fuel and other miscellaneous for the management of the 43 project. While the increased thresholds for ICB are not yet applied in Guinea-Bissau, ICB procedures for goods will be used for all contracts equivalent to or above US$150,000. For contracts less than US$150,000, NCB procedures may be used. The procurement will be done using Bank‟s SBD for all ICB. For NCB contracts, there are no national SBD acceptable to the Bank, the Borrower may use the Bank‟s SBDs and modify them while maintaining the requirements in order to meet the exceptions authorized under NCB and National SBD agreed with (or satisfactory to) the Bank as previously mentioned. 42. Procurement of non-consulting services: Non consulting services will include services for the maintenance of vehicles and services related to the organization of training sessions. For such service contracts less than US$50,000, the shopping process may be used. 43. Selection of Consultants: Consulting services will include contract management services, services, the review of the National fisheries law, study on the policy regulatory frameworks, services to sustain the capacity building program and services for financial audit, etc. While the increased threshold for short-list composed of national consultants is not yet applied in GuineaBissau, short lists of consultants for services estimated to cost less than $100,000 equivalent per contract may be composed entirely of national consultants in accordance with the provisions of paragraph 2.7 of the Consultant Guidelines. 44. Operational Costs: Operating costs financed by the Project are incremental expenses, including office supplies, vehicle operation and maintenance, maintenance of equipment, communication costs, rental expenses, utilities expenses, consumable, transport and accommodation, per diem, supervision costs and salaries of eligible consultants, provided that these salaries are eligible to the World Bank financing. They will be procured using the implementing unit's administrative and financial procedures, which were detailed in the project administrative and financial manuals, reviewed and found acceptable to the Bank. 45. Assessment of the agency’s capacity to implement procurement. Procurement activities will be carried out at a national level by a Policy and Planning Office (PPO) within the Fisheries Secretariat. The overall regional coordination activities will be carried out by a Regional Coordination Unit within the CRSP in Senegal. The PPO will be responsible for overall procurement supervision, control of the compliance with the agreed procedures and of the time frame. PPO will also be acting as the Bank‟s counterpart and directly responsible for reporting to the Bank. The Policy and Planning Office will be equipped with satisfactory number of qualified, seasoned fiduciary staff. 46. An assessment of the capacity of the Implementing Agency to implement procurement actions for the project has been carried out by Aissata Zerbo, Procurement Analyst (The World Bank) in November 2010. The assessment reviewed the organizational structure for implementing the project and the interaction between the project‟s staff responsible for procurement and the Ministry‟s relevant central unit for administration and finance. 47. The staff of the technical entities in charge of the implementation of the project lack of sufficient qualification in procurement and this situation may be a constraint in the project implementation. In addition, the procurement control body, i.e. the DGCP (Direcção General dos 44 Concursos Públicos), while in place with new texts which should empower its function, has not the relevant resources and capacities to fulfill its mandate. 48. There are some risks concerning the procurement component for implementation of the project that have been identified; they include: Lack of control from the procurement control body at the national level, i.e. the DGCP, due to insufficient staff resources; Insufficient capacity in procurement processing, procurement plans and contract management (including possible delay in contract payments) Possible deficiencies in record keeping, in particular in the case of many intervenient and many contracts; and Political interference at the national level which may be susceptible to corrupt practices. 49. The corrective measures which have been agreed are: The Government has issued an official notice to enforce ex-ante controls by the DGCP. In addition, the DGCP will establish and implement a supervision program for procurement transactions to be financed under the project. The Bank will maintain low prior review thresholds in order to ensure fiduciary compliance of procurement financed under the project; Awareness-raising and training sessions to be held in procurement processing, in drafting and updating procurement plans and in contract management (including celerity in contract payments) at the benefit of all parties and stakeholders involved in the procurement implementation. The technical structures of specialized Ministries will be involved as technical support for drafting technical specifications, TORs, supervising contract execution and controlling delivery of goods. In addition, the Policy and Planning Office (PPO) may plan to hire qualified procurement consultants for technical assistance in procurement. The PPO will have to pay attention to the periodical update of procurement plans and to record keeping and filing systems. The manual of procedures should reflect these requirements and furthermore, the procurement control body and the Regulatory body will have to supervise such requirements when they become functional; DGCP to perform its control and ensure that the procurement decisions are consistent with the procedures and not affected by any political interferences. The Bank will support the setting up of the new procurement institutional framework for controls and oversight of procurement transactions. In addition, the project may benefit from the new framework in public procurement, which includes a new Regulatory Body (ORCP) managed by representatives from the private and public sectors and the civil society, and responsible for policy, handli ng of complaints and audits: this may reduce political interference and improve governance in the procurement process. 45 50. The overall project risk for procurement is high. However, because most of the contracts under this project are small contracts, the implementation of the mitigation measures as stated above may bring the risk from high to moderate. 51. Procurement Plans. The Borrower has developed a Procurement Plan for the project implementation which take into account the initial activities and which provide the basis for the procurement methods. This plan will be reviewed and agreed between the Bank and the Project Team. The agreed plan will be available at the office of the Policy and Planning Office in Bissau. It will also be available in the Project‟s database and in the Bank‟s external website. The Procurement Plan will be updated by the Project Team annually or as required to reflect the actual project implementation needs and improvements in institutional capacity. 52. Frequency of Procurement Supervision. In addition to the prior review supervision to be carried out from Bank offices, the capacity assessment of the Implementing Agency has recommended two supervision missions per year to visit the field and to carry out post review of procurement actions during one of these missions. 53. Procurement Packages with Methods and Time Schedule: Re f No Contract (Description) Estimated Cost (US$) Procurement Method P-Q Domestic Preference Review by Bank Expected Bid Opening 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1. Goods and Works (a) List of contract Packages which would be procured following ICB or NCB COMPONENT 1: GOOD GOVERNANCE AND SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT OF THE FISHERIES 1 Equipment for institutional strengthening 75,000 NCB NO NO POST 4/5/11 COMPONENT 2: REDUCTION OF ILLEGAL FISHING 2 3 4 Leasing surveillance vessel for EEZ operations MCS/office equipment and maintenance for surveillance stations (5), including setup of VMS technology to track vessels Equipment of the MCS command center, including set-up of VMS technology to track vessels 2 000,000 ICB NO NO PRIOR 10/6/11 500,000 ICB NO NO PRIOR 13/4/11 250,000 NCB NO NO PRIOR 30/4/11 COMPONENT 3: INCREASING THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE MARINE FISH RESOURCES TO THE LOCAL ECONOMIES 5 Office and laboratory equipment 250,000 NCB NO NO 1. Consultancy Assignments with Selection Methods and Time Schedule 46 PRIOR 30/4/11 2 - Consulting Services List of Consulting Assignments Re f. N o. Description of Assignment 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Estimated Cost (US$) 3 Selection Method Review by the Bank Expected Proposal Submission Comments 4 5 6 7 COMPONENT 1: GOOD GOVERNANCE AND SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT OF THE FISHERIES Selection of consultant for the review of the (i) institutional arrangements for the National Strategic Plan (ii) aspects of the 279,000 QCBS PRIOR 8/7/11 future fisheries law and integration/coordination with other national efforts - workshop facilitation Consultant for research cruises for fish stock assessments- stock assessments of the main 546,000 SINGLE SOURCE PRIOR 24/6/11 three fisheries (coastal shrimp, cephalopods, demersal fish )Selection of consultant for Study of the 24,000 IC PRIOR 23/3/11 climate change impacts on the main fish stocks and dependent coastal communities Selection of consultant Study on the status of 60,000 IC PRIOR 23/3/11 the ecosystem in the coastal areas covering physical, chemical and biological aspects Selection of Consultant for (i) building a statistical sampling system for the artisanal 132,000 IC PRIOR 20/2/11 fisheries- (ii) training of researchers in statistics, database, and stock assessments Selection of Consultant for (i) Modeling exercise to test different management measures and determine which one would Quality based 60,000 PRIOR 8/7/11 sustainably maximize the benefits in the selection QBS fishery (ii) Bioeconomic model analysis for the coastal shrimp, cephalopod and demersal fisheries Selection of Consultant to determine the current regulatory status of Co-management 180,000 QCBS POST 27/5/11 arrangements and policy framework needed to evolve towards TURFs + assist with evolution towards TURFs. Selection of Permanent technical assistant to 312,000 QCBS PRIOR 10/3/11 MCS effort Selection of trainer for training (i) of fiscap observers for EEZ patrols (ii) of staff for rapid 250,000 QCBS PRIOR 10/3/11 response and MCS stations (iii) of staff for control center COMPONENT 3: INCREASING THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE MARINE FISH RESOURCES TO THE LOCAL ECONOMIES Selection of Technical assistant to the 84,000 QCBS POST 9/2/11 department (including development of annual work plans and budgets) 47 54. Environmental and Social (including safeguards). Unlike many of the other countries participating in the West Africa Regional Fisheries Program, Guinea-Bissau does not have a tradition or culture of fishing. Many coastal communities engage in farming foremost, rather than fishing. For this reason, the country has always employed a strategy of essentially „renting out‟ its fish resources, by selling access to the fisheries to foreign and/or industrial fleets in the form of licenses. This is unlikely to change in the near to medium term, and the focus of this investment is on helping the Government better manage these largely foreign fisherie s, reduce the high volume of illegal fishing that is occurring in these waters right now (again largely from foreign and/or industrial vessels). Therefore, unlike in many of the other countries in the WARFP, the project is not expected to have significant social impacts as it supports a transition to greater management over access to the resources. The majority of the project‟s activities will concentrate on fisheries resource management at the national scale, rather than specific interventions or access restrictions at the local or community scale. 55. However, given the program‟s long-term objective of strengthening management of the fish resources, the potential for involuntary restrictions on traditional access to the fish resources as a result of World Bank investments must be considered. Throughout the region the marine fish resources are utilized through a system of open access that has allowed essentially more fishers and fishing pressure than the resources can sustain. The program addresses this constraint by supporting governments like Guinea-Bissau to transition away from open access to more regulated fisheries, where access to specific areas or types of fisheries would be controlled or restricted. The Regional Process Framework, which has been developed, reviewed and cleared by the World Bank for the first phase of the APL, has been provided to the Government of Guinea-Bissau for guidance on consultations and addressing any potential issues arising from restriction of access and impacts on livelihoods. In addition, the Government of Guinea-Bissau has committed itself to undertake, not later than September 30, 2012, a social assessment of the impact of the Project on the management of its fisheries resources upon terms of reference satisfactory to the Association and, on the basis thereon, implement measures satisfactory to the Association to minimize and mitigate adverse social impacts, if any, especially those affecting poor and vulnerable groups. 56. The project will support small works and goods for strengthened surveillance of the fisheries under component 2, but these are expected to have relatively minor impacts on the environment. These small works include rehabilitation to coastal surveillance stations and landing sites, as well as to coastal patrol vessels. Potential impacts may result from physical rehabilitation to surveillance stations, as well as fuel discharge from patrol vessels. Because the specific rehabilitations and patrols may shift during the course of implementation to respon d to evolving illegal fishing activities and challenges, the Government has prepared an Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF), with appropriate budget and resources included in the project to ensure implementation of the Framework. The ESMF includes the biophysical and soci-economic environment, legal, policy and institutional framework including the role of sub national institutional. The ESMF identifies the impacts and outlines mitigation measures to address them. The Framework also outlines the capacity issues, and monitoring and Evaluation, timetable and a budget and public consultations. The Fisheries Secretariat has weak capacity on safeguards issues and associated World Bank procedures. Nonetheless, the Regional 48 Coordinating Unit (RCU) for the project will be working with the country teams on the safeguards and with the support of reputable and knowledgeable consultants in country. In order to enable Government play its role of monitoring and evaluating the safeguards activities and do proper reviews, the in country team will be trained on the policies and their responsibilities on safeguards as is relevant to their total performance. 57. The project does not trigger the OP 4.12, based on footnote 8 of the policy6, which indicates that the operational policy does not apply to regulations of natural resources on a regional, national and/or sub-national level (such as watershed management, ground water management, fisheries management, coastal zone management, etc.) unless such activities or regulation involve Bank-assisted investments that require the taking of land – which is not the case with this project. As part of due diligence, a number of measures have been put in place to ensure that the project focuses on activities agreed upon at project preparation stage, and does not involve land acquisition/involuntary resettlement. The project‟s consultations indicate the communities‟ commitment to ensuring sustainability of the natural resources-fisheries. As good practice, the government will conduct the aforementioned (paragraph 55 above) social assessment and include actions that will ensure that there are no negative impacts on vulnerable groups as a result of project activities but rather that such groups tend to benefit. 58. Monitoring & Evaluation. The monitoring and evaluation (M&E) plan of the project is based the key indicators detailed in the results monitoring section in Annex 1. Overall achievement of the PDO will be measured through a combination of measures of the triple bottom line for Guinea-Bissau‟s fisheries: (i) environmental health, (ii) economic profitability and (iii) social equitability. Key indicators have been chosen taking into account the information they provide, as well as the costs and feasibility for any additional data gathering. 59. The key indicator for the environmental health of the fish stocks is a practical measure based simply on the trend in local landings of target species per unit of fishing capacity (which would represent a larger basket of species targeted by the fishery, such as one or two species representing the broader group of coastal demersal species). Landings are certainly a rough measure of the health of the resources underpinning a fishery, but one that is easily collected. Similarly, in terms of a measure of units of fishing capacity, those that are currently available in the country are the number of different types of fishing vessels that are operating. This is not the ideal indicator, and does not include other dimensions of fishing capacity such as vessel horsepower and types of fishing, but it does provide a proxy of landings per unit of fishing capacity, based on readily available information that can be used as a baseline. Furthermore, a stabilization or increase in local landings per vessel of targeted fish, in conjunction with a reduction of fishing capacity and the introduction of secure fishing rights, can provide a good indication of the health of the resources. A stabilization or increase in landings per fishing vesse l in fully or overexploited fisheries is meant to track an increase in the actual biomass of the stock, so long as fishing effort remains relatively constant. This information and indicator can be easily fed back into community monitoring efforts as well, to influence local management decisions. Further complementary work has been conducted by FAO on the state of the fish stocks in the 6 Management informed the Executive Directors in April 2010 of a “Clarification of OP 4.12, Footnote 8 regarding Application of Land Use Planning Projects” (SecM2010 -0199). 49 region over a much longer time horizon, that will also provide information to monitor the health of the resource base.7 60. In terms of the economic indicator on the increase in wealth generated by targeted fisheries, the project has prepared a bio-economic model of the targeted fisheries, based on the best data available. The model provides a measurement of the net economic benefits to Ghana from the fisheries, based on the sum of: (i) the profits to vessel owners, (ii) the net income of the crew (i.e. returns to labor), and (iii) the net transfers to Government. The key data inputs needed for the model for the targeted fisheries are: (i) fishing effort in the fishery (number and type of vessels), (ii) fish landed, (iii) capital and operating costs of vessels, and (iv) local fish product price data. This information has been collected for the baseline, and will be collected by the Fisheries Department to be entered into the fisheries statistics „Dashboard‟ supported by the project in Component 1.1. 61. In terms of the social indicator, the project will monitor for an increase in the average household wealth status for fishing households in targeted communities (including comparisons with non-target community households). Data will be collected for household wealth based on a repeat of the social surveys (i.e. Citizen Report Cards) at mid-term and before the end of project. 62. Role of Partners. The project will be carried out in close cooperation with the European Union (EU), who provides direct support to the fisheries sector via its foreign fisheries agreement with the Government of Guinea-Bissau. Similarly, the RCU will ensure that the SubRegional Fisheries Commission supports project implementation, including collaboration with regional donor initiatives housed at the Commission, such as the EU‟s regional fisheries surveillance project. Lastly, the project will coordinate closely with other stakeholders in maritime surveillance, including ECOWAS, the United Nations and the United States, in order to develop potential partnerships. 7 Garcia, S. (2009) Rising to Depletion? Measuring the Progress of Countries towards the WSSD Objective for Fisheries Resources. 50 Annex 4: Operational Risk Assessment Framework (ORAF) Project Development Objective(s) To strengthen the Guinea-Bissau’s capacity to govern and manage targeted fisheries, reduce illegal fishing and increase local value added to fish products PDO Level Results Indicators: Risk Category Project Stakeholder Risks Stakeholder Risks Implementing Agency Risks Summary 1. Overexploited fisheries show signs of a recovery, as measured by an increase in total landings per unit of fishing effort (e.g. number of fishing vessels) 2. Increase in annual net economic benefits to Guinea Bissau from targeted fisheries Risk Rating Risk Description High The success of investments to reduce illegal fishing and therefore strengthened sustainability of the fisheries depends on the willingness of the Borrower to prosecute illegal fishing activities. The Program provides for transparent publication of information on infractions and prosecutions, to encourage public monitoring, as well as monitoring by multi-stakeholder national steering committees. The Program also supports communications and involvement by journalists and NGOs, to help ensure that a multiple number of stakeholders monitor these activities. This risk is most prevalent early in implementation, so the Program will need to ensure transparency and multi-stakeholder involvement from an early stage. High Weak capacity of the Fisheries Secretariat is a high risk. The project is designed based on integrating technical assistance into the Proposed Mitigation Measure 51 implementing agency, as well as training budgets. Furthermore, the RCU will provide ongoing capacity building from Dakar. Over the medium term, the project will support an institutional review to implement new human resource policies and incentives and identify clear revenue streams to strengthen the capacity of the Fisheries Secretariat. Governance of the sector is extremely weak, as license provisions are often ignored by users or not enforced. Risk of corruption in the Implementing Agency may impact project implementation, with regards to fiduciary matters as well as effective governance of the sector to meet the project development objectives The project is designed with a component focused specifically on strengthening governance, and on building capacity in the implementing agency. There will be high levels of investment to address this risk. This risk is explicitly addressed in project design. Bank assistance and dialogue are designed to give strong support to the anticorruption agenda, strengthening the institutions at local and central levels charged with the responsibility of ensuring transparency and accountability in the sector. Annual audit by professionally qualified auditors, with terms of reference acceptable to IDA, will be undertaken. Close project supervision and expenditure monitoring through the periodic financial 52 reporting arrangements will highlight issues impacting potential fraud and corruption and thus support remedial measures Project Risks Design Risk Medium Impact Social and Environmental Risk Medium Impact Delivery Quality Risk Medium - I Risk that design is too complex The project is designed to try to reduce complexity to every extent possible, and to pilot new approaches, so that a „learningby-doing‟ model is adopted. This risk will be prevalent throughout design and implementation. Risk that fisheries surveillance will result in The project aims to support the the enforcement of management measures on Government to conduct fisheries coastal communities, causing negative social surveillance activities targeted largely to impacts the industrial fisheries, which should provide benefits to coastal communities, whose fishers may compete with such vessels. The Regional Process Framework, which has been developed, reviewed and cleared by the World Bank for the first phase of the APL, has been provided to the Government of GuineaBissau for guidance on consultations and addressing any potential issues arising from restriction of access and impacts on livelihoods. In terms of any potential environmental risks from equipping surveillance stations and conducting patrols, the project has prepared an Environmental and Social Management Framework. Risk of project teams unavailable to monitor The project team has been organized and provide implementation support to project around the use of external „implementation 53 Other Risks Medium - I Reputational risk in successful fisheries surveillance activities that overstep the Bank‟s mandate. Overall Risk Rating at Preparation Overall Risk Rating During Implementation High High 8 support‟ consultants, who are contracted by the Bank with the sole task of providing implementation support to the Borrower, and reporting frequently to the task team. The project will follow the new Guidance Note on IDA/IBRD financing for fisheries enforcement operations, and accordingly only finance fisheries surveillance operations, to implement fisheries laws aimed at increasing the economic benefits from the use of these resources. Projectfinanced goods under component 2 will only be used for fisheries surveillance, according to specific clauses in the legal agreements drafted on the basis of the Guidance Note. This risk should be monitored throughout implementation.8 Comments Ratings reflect the significant overarching countrylevel risks associated with the unstable political and weak macro-economic environments that exist. Per instructions in the Guidance Note, the Legal Agreement for the project will specify that patrol vessels leased with funds from the project will only be used for fisheries surveillance missions. 54 Annex 5: Implementation Support Plan 1. The strategy for implementation support (IS) has been developed based on the nature of the project and its risk profile. It will aim at making implementation support to the client flexible and efficient, and will focus on implementation of the risk mitigation measures defined in the ORAF. 2. Most Bank team members will be in the Senegal country office, with support from technical and operational staff in Washington, to ensure timely, efficient and effective implementation support to the client. Formal supervision and field visits will be carried out semi-annually. Detailed inputs from the Bank team are outlined below. Technical Input. Supervision will ensure sufficient technical oversight is provided to liaise closely with the PPO to: (a) monitor progress of implementation towards achievement of project objectives; (b) review Terms of References and other project implementation documentation; (c) provide guidance on sector specific issues as well as project specific issues as they arise through implementation; and (d) conduct missions as necessary to assess project implementation and provide detailed guidance and support to PPO. Technical support is expected to include a Fisheries Specialist and other technical skills that may be needed as issues arise throughout implementation supervision. The Fisheries Specialist will be based in Dakar, and likely to spend as much as 3 to 4 months in Bissau over the first year of implementation. Procurement. Implementation support will include: (a) providing supervision/training to members of the procurement unit supporting the implementation of the project, as well as to the Program Coordinator and PPO; (b) reviewing procurement documents; (c) providing detailed guidance on the Bank‟s Procurement Guidelines; and (d) monitoring procurement progress against the detailed Procurement Plan. Financial Management. Supervision will focus on the review of the project‟s financial management system, including accounting, reporting and internal controls. The Bank team will also work with the Program Coordinator and PPO to assist in coordination among different departments and units for financial management and reporting. Environmental and Social Safeguards. The Bank team will support the Government in the implementation of the agreed Environmental Management Plan and provide guidance to the client to address any issues. Implementation Support. Following the model of other investments of the West Africa Regional Fisheries Program, the team will recruit an „implementation support‟ consultant, whose terms of reference will concentrate on providing direct technical and implementation support to the PPO, as well as to the Bank team. This will be a senior specialist, particularly with knowledge of fisheries surveillance systems, who would spend as much as four to six months per year in Bissau over the first two years of project implementation. Regional Coordination. The project will benefit from ongoing support from the Regional Coordination Unit of the West Africa Regional Fisheries Program, based in the Sub-Regional Fisheries Commission in Dakar. Experts in this unit will provide M&E and fiduciary support, as well as sharing lessons learned from investments in neighboring countries, and facilitating opportunities for regional collaboration. 55 I. Summary of implementation support Time Focus Project Project implementation Year 1 Project Years 2-5 Resource Procurement Specialist Fisheries Specialist (Dakar) Implementation Support Sp. Time 3 SWs 10 SWs 15 SW Financial management supervision Financial management specialist 2 SWs Task team leadership, Institutional arrangements and project supervision coordination TTL 5 SWs Project implementation Environment and Social monitoring and reporting Procurement Specialist Fisheries Specialist (Dakar) Implementation Support Sp. Environmental Specialist Social Specialist Financial management monitoring and reporting Financial Management Specialist 2 SWs Task team leadership TTL 5 SWs II. Required skills mix Skills Needed Fisheries Specialist Implementation Support Specialist Task Team Leader Environmental Specialist Procurement Financial Management Operations III. Partners Name CSRP Number of Staff Weeks 12+ SW per year during first two years 20 SW per year during first two years 5 SWs annually 3 SWs annually 4 SWs annually 3 SWs annually 2 SWs annually Country Senegal 4 SWs 10 SWs 15 SW 2 SWs 2 SWs Number of Trips Multiple Comments Dakar-based Multiple Focused on fisheries surv. Field based Field trips as required Two Field trip as required Field trip as required As needed Field based Field based Role Providing ongoing implementation support, guidance on lessons learned from neighboring countries, facilitating regional collaboration 56 Annex 6: Team Composition World Bank staff and consultants who worked on the project: Name Oleg Martens Joaquim Tenreiro Carolyn Winter Beatrix AllahMensah Ellyn Tynan Jingjie Chu Claudia Ocana Rajiv Sondhi Osval Romao Aissata Zerbo Carmen Pereira Eric Dacosta Virginie Vaselopulos Alyson Kleine John Virdin Title Unit Fisheries Specialist, Consultant Sr. Fisheries Specialist, Consultant Sr. Social Development Specialist Social Development Specialist ARD AFTEN/ARD AFTCS AFTCS Sr. Environmental Specialist Young Professional Sr. Counsel Sr. Finance Officer Sr. Financial Management Specialist Procurement Specialist Liaison Officer Team Assistant Program Assistant Operations Analyst Task Team Leader AFTEN AFTEN/ARD LEGAF CTRFC AFTFM AFTU2 AFMGW AFMGW AFTEN WBICC AFTEN 57 Annex 7: Economic & Financial Analysis A. Program Overview 1. An economic and financial analysis of the project was conducted, based on a quantitative economic model developed for the country‟s fisheries and the proposed investment. The calculation cannot capture the benefit of all the diverse activities of the project due to time and resources constrains, such as the value of public and community capacity strengthening and stakeholder technical and managerial support. This annex summarizes the findings of these analyses. B. Overview of Program Cost and Benefits 2. The proposed investment is divided into four components, totalling US$8 million (see Annex II for details): Component 1: good governance and sustainable management of the fisheries ($2 m GEF) Component 2: reduction of illegal fishing ($4.8 m IDA) Component 3: increasing the contribution of the fish resources to the local economy ($0.5 m IDA) Component 4: coordination, monitoring and evaluation and project management ($0.7 m IDA). 3. There are a range of benefits that will be generated from these four classes of investments, including: Increased profitability of fisheries and higher economic returns from the sector; Improved marine and fisheries conservation outcomes; Poverty reduction for coastal and inland fishing communities; and Increased food security. 4. Some of these are monetary benefits that can be quantified (e.g., revenue, profits, rents) and some are non-monetary benefits that are less easily quantified (e.g., increased food security and conservation of fisheries and marine resources). Many of the non-monetary benefits, however, will also support economic development through their effects on improving fishery stocks and harvests. Furthermore, because of the transboundary nature of the fisheries resources in the region, significant externalities exist, with interventions and activities in the sector in Guinea-Bissau likely to have significant positive effects on neighboring countries. Therefore, the overall benefits from this program are therefore likely to be greater than the estimated monetary value of the benefits given below. 5. Because a number of components and subcomponents are being simultaneously implemented and have overlapping relationships, expected benefits cannot be isolated as a function of each investment but can be analyzed with respect to their total expected effects on the fishery sectors and subsectors. General expected benefits include: 58 C. Improved management capacity and efficiency Rebuilt overfished coastal fish stocks and increased harvests Improved negotiation power due to better resource management Reduction in excess (illegal) fishing effort and increase (legal) catch and catch per unit effort Increased (legal) ex-vessel revenues Reduction in fishing costs Increased profits and rents Improved marine and freshwater habitats and biodiversity Increased amount and quality of fisheries data Increased stakeholder self governance and rational management incentives Redistribution of existing wealth from foreign companies to local businesses Improved access to foreign markets due to improved sanitary conditions during processing and cold storage Increased coordination of fisheries management, surveillance, monitoring, and sector development activities Valuation of Project Benefits 6. A model was developed to estimate the quantifiable direct benefits generated by the project. Information on historical license fee, landing values, and number of employment were collected from published sources or from previous studies, as well as from preparation missions. Due to the limited data, various reasonable assumptions had to be made in order to estimate potential economic benefits of the projects. The following sections briefly describe the current economic performance of the fishery sector in Guinea-Bissau. From this baseline, two scenarios were then modelled to estimate future benefits over 30 years, one being a “business as usual” without-project scenario, and the other with-project scenario incorporating assumptions based on the investments and associated reforms implemented through various project components. Current economic performance of Guinea-Bissau’s fisheries 7. Despite a coastline of about 280 km, the continental shelf of Guinea-Bissau covers approximately 45,000 of the 150,000 square kilometers of the country‟s waters, with shallow depths, making it one of the largest among the countries of West Africa. However, due to the predominance of an agricultural tradition in Guinea-Bissau, it is foreign artisanal and industrial fishermen who have traditionally caught most of the fish in the country‟s coastal waters, in many cases outside the control and regulation of the Government. 8. In the artisanal fishery, the total number of national and foreign artisanal fishermen has been estimated between 3,362 and 10,000. They are using between 656 and 1,200 canoes, of which about 14 to 20 percent are motorized. In the 1991-93 period, the artisanal catches were estimated at 26,000 to 30,000 tonnes (with a total value of US$17 to 19 million) and in 1995 at 59 50,000 tonnes, mostly sold in neighbouring Senegal and Guinea-Conakry. In 1997, FAO estimated the domestic artisanal catches at 5,400 tonnes, about 10 percent of the total catch. In 2000, IUCN survey data estimated there were 107 domestic canoes, of which 29 have motors. 9. Industrial fishing is permitted only in waters beyond 12 nautical miles from the coast, according to the regulations in Guinea-Bissau. In the 2004-06 period, between 215 and 237 fishing licenses were granted to industrial vessels for periods that varied between 3 and 12 months. However, the average month presence of these vessels declined from 103 to 83 vessels as well as the catch per unit of effort, particularly in the prawn and cephalopod trawling fleets. As shown in Figure 1, the total number of licenses, indicated by the total gross registered tonnes (GRT) has been declining in during 2004 to 2006. The total revenues from fishing license fees, including vessel fees, foreign fishing agreement vessel fees and foreign fishing agreement compensations (including the foreign fishing agreement with the European Union), has dropped from US$19.1 million in 2003 to US$14.4 million in 2006. Meanwhile, a significant number of vessels are operating illegally in the waters under Guinea-Bissau‟s jurisdiction. In 2006, 99 fishing boats were intercepted, 13 of which were fined for fishing without a license. Figure 1 Licensed Gross Registered Tonnes (GRT) for Trawl Fisheries 10. Post-catch activities are very limited in Guinea-Bissau. Generally all of the industrial fishing vessels are unloading their catch in Dakar, Abidjan and Las Palmas, which is then sent on to the regional and European markets. Artisanal processing currently reaches the equivalent of 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes/year of fresh fishing produce, of which about 5,400 tonnes comes from national operators, an important part of which is processed by artisanal methods. This reflects the small size of the local market (and hence local demand), as well as the lack of adequate infrastructures and services, fiscal regime and the investment climate in general. Model Outputs 11. The model outputs presented in the analysis are as follows: 60 Net Economic Benefits (NEB) for each sector. This is sometimes referred to as economic rent, which is the return to owners and participants including skippers/crew after all variable and fixed costs as well as depreciation costs, capital cost, 9 and opportunity cost of labor are accounted. This measure appropriately in economic terms treats labor as a cost. However, the cost of labor, which is a share of the net revenue (estimated as total revenue minus operational costs10), is not subtracted directly. Instead, the opportunity cost of labor, as the maximum alternative employment, is used in the calculation. 11 Resource Rents (RR) for each sector. The concept of Resource Rents should not be confused with Net Economic Benefits. Resource Rents further assume there is an allowance for normal profit. In this analysis, a margin of 20 percent was adopted based on the Namibian hake fishery study done by Lange and Motinga (1997). Distribution among three groups, including (i) net benefits to crew/workers, (ii) net income to vessel or company owner, and (iii) net transfers to government. The model did not consider taxes on sector profits. Net Present Value (NPV). This is the sum of the annual values for each benefit category discounted over a 30-year period. Scenario 1: Business-as-Usual 12. The baseline scenario assumes no change in the legal, institutional or policy framework for the fisheries sector in Guinea-Bissau. For the artisanal fishery, the model assumes a 5 percent annual declining rate of the harvest and number of fishing fleet for the first 10 years and then a stabilization for the next 20 years in both the motorized and non-motorized canoe sectors, due to the secondary nature of the fishery and unhealthy status of the fishery. There is no cost data available to get a precise idea of the situation, such as net economic benefit. Given the similar characteristics of this sector with the neighbouring country, the cost data of Senegal, including the cost of hull, engine, fuel, crew provision, landing cost, etc. were applied to conduct the analysis for Guinea-Bissau. 13. As shown in Table 1, the non-motorized canoe sector will generate approximately US$1 million revenue12, leading to $603,595 net economic benefit and $395,008 resource rent (subtract 20 percent of normal profit on the base of net economic benefit) on Year 5. The crew members will share $761,624 returns and the owners of the boats will make $222,783 net profit. The net 9 Depreciation and capital costs are separately estimated as annual costs for each canoe power category in the economic model. Assumptions were made about hull, motor, gear, and other equipment lifespan and salvage value to calculate straight-line depreciation; and, other assumptions were promulgated for loan terms to determine opportunity cost of capital. 10 Operational costs include trip variable costs (fuel, bait, expendable gear, etc.) and non -trip fixed costs (moorage, etc.) 11 The additional assumption is that the labor market works smoothly in the region. We have little information on the set of skills of fishers' families and alternative employment possibilities, thus we simply assume there is a 50 percent probability that alternative labor opportunities exist for same or higher wages. 12 The exchange rate is 1USD=528 XOF (average of monthly exchange rate in 2006). 61 present value (NPV) over 30 years under 10 percent discount rate for net economic benefit is over $5.3 million. The government does not get any returns because there is no license system. Table 1 Baseline Situation for Artisanal Non-Motorized Canoe Sector Basecase (non-motorized canoe) 0 5 78 Average number of vessels operating 10 60 47 15 47 20 47 25 47 30 NPV (10%) 47 2,160 1,671 1,293 1,293 1,293 1,293 1,293 1,347,840 1,042,933 807,002 807,002 807,002 807,002 807,002 $9,214,664 Net Economic Benefit (USD) 780,059 603,595 467,050 467,050 467,050 467,050 467,050 $5,332,964 Resource Rent (USD) 510,491 395,008 305,650 305,650 305,650 305,650 305,650 $3,490,031 Returns to labor (USD) 984,289 761,624 589,330 589,330 589,330 589,330 589,330 $6,729,206 Returns to owners (USD) Returns to government (license fee) (USD) 287,915 222,783 172,385 172,385 172,385 172,385 172,385 $1,968,361 Total Harvest (ton) Total Reveune (USD) Distribution of benefit 14. The motorized canoe sector will generate about $1.5 million in annual revenue in Year 5, leading to $991,190 net economic benefit and $678,310 resource rent (Table 2). The returns to labor are nearly $800,000 and returns to owner are approximately $500,000. The net present value (NPV) over 30 years under 10 percent discount rate for net economic benefit is $8.8 million. Again, the government does not get any returns because of no license system. Table 2 Baseline Situation for Artisanal Motorized Canoe Sector Basecase (motorized canoe) Average number of vessels operating Total Harvest (ton) Total Reveune (USD) Net Economic Benefit (USD) Resource Rent (USD) Distribution of benefit Returns to labor (USD) Returns to owners (USD) Returns to government (license fee) (USD) 0 5 10 15 20 25 29 3,240 2,021,760 1,289,582 885,230 22 2,507 1,564,399 991,190 678,310 17 1,940 1,210,502 766,964 524,863 17 1,940 1,210,502 766,964 524,863 17 1,940 1,210,502 767,359 525,258 17 1,940 1,210,502 767,359 525,258 1,327,617 625,773 1,020,621 480,880 789,737 372,095 789,737 372,095 789,737 372,490 789,737 372,490 30 NPV (10%) 17 1,940 1,210,502 $13,821,996 767,359 $8,775,788 525,258 $6,011,389 789,737 372,490 $9,034,435 $4,258,571 15. For the industrial fishery sector, because most of the vessels are from foreign countries, the benefit to Guinea-Bissau mainly comes from three sources. One is the license fee charged by the Government of Guinea-Bissau as their revenue; one is the wages received from the domestic crew working in foreign fleet as a compulsory condition of agreements; and the last one is the income of fines of illegal fishing activities. In the base scenario, the model assumes the license revenue will continue falling by 5 percent annually until Year 10 due to the declining catch rates and increasing harvest cost. Fewer and thus loss of interests of foreign vessels. By Year 5, the total license fee will drop to $11 million and by Year 10, it will stabilize at roughly $8.6 million. The lost interest of foreign vessels in Guinea-Bissau water will automatically affect the returns to domestic crew. The total wages will be less than $1 million annually by Year 5. It will have an increasing trend after Year 10 because of the assumption of monthly wages, which will have a 5 percent adjustment for every 5 years. For the fine of illegal activities, the model assumes the fine will be about 25 percent of the license fees based on the 2006 data and also considering the probability of catching illegal fishing activities, monitoring capacity of the country and potential improvement of MCS. 62 Table 3 Baseline Situation for Industrial Fishery Sector Baseline (Industrial) License fee 0 14,384,000 5 11,130,065 10 8,612,232 15 8,612,232 20 8,612,232 25 8,612,232 30 8,612,232 NPV (10%) 98,337,878 Wages of domestic crew 1,003,840 776,752 631,088 662,642 695,774 730,563 767,091 7,249,313 Fine of illegal activities 3,700,000 2,782,516 2,153,058 2,153,058 2,153,058 2,153,058 2,153,058 24,584,470 Scenario 2: Investment 16. In the investment scenario (i.e. the „with project‟ scenario), a series of activities will be implemented to strengthen the governance of fisheries. However, rebuilding over-exploited fish stocks would require an initial stock assessment and possibly a temporary reduction in current actual fishing effort. Such an approach would enable the country in the future to keep foreign fishermen attracted to fishing in the country‟s waters. 17. Despite the modest role of local artisanal fisheries, and the major cultural constraints that hamper development, the Government has repeatedly given high priority to development of local artisanal fisheries based on their potential to create employment, and the potential local valueadded that can be generated by domestic artisanal fisheries. The development of artisanal fisheries will face substantial cultural and technical constraints. Therefore, the model will not expect a significant growth from this sector. The model assumes the number of fishing fleet in non-motorized canoe sector will reduce by 4 for the first 2 years and then start increa sing by 5 annually for the next 8 years (Table 4). Afterwards, it will keep stable number of fleet in the sector. The total harvest will reach 2,069 tons on Year 5, nearly 25 percent increase compared to the baseline. The net economic benefit will increase 22.5 percent on Year 5 and over 70 percent on Year 10 than the baseline. This will generate $4.7 million NPV of resource rent over 30 years and over $9 million returns to labor, $2.6 million returns to boat owners. The project will not implement a license system in the artisanal fisheries, therefore, the returns to government from license fee will still be zero. Table 4 Investment Scenario for Non-Motorized Canoe Sector Investment (non-motorized canoe) Average number of vessels operating Total Harvest (ton) Total Reveune (USD) Net Economic Benefit (USD) Resource Rent (USD) Distribution of benefit Returns to labor (USD) Returns to owners (USD) Returns to government (license fee) (USD) 0 78 2,160 1,347,840 780,059 510,491 5 82 2,069 1,290,881 741,262 483,086 10 102 2,284 1,425,236 809,250 524,203 15 102 2,284 1,425,236 809,250 524,203 20 102 2,284 1,425,236 809,250 524,203 25 102 2,284 1,425,236 809,250 524,203 30 NPV (10%) 102 2,284 1,425,236 $12,659,181 809,250 $7,240,947 524,203 $4,709,111 984,289 287,915 940,206 271,160 1,034,155 292,173 1,034,155 292,173 1,034,155 292,173 1,034,155 292,173 1,034,155 292,173 $9,208,160 $2,636,867 18. For the motorized canoe sector, the number of fishing fleet will reduce by 2 for the first 2 years and then increase by 2 annually for the next 8 years (Table 5). Since Year 10, the number of fleet will be stabilized. Similar increase of net economic benefit, resource rent, returns to labor and boat owners occur to motorized canoe sector as non-motorized canoe sector. Both of them benefit from the improved fishery management and better stocks of fishery. More wealth is generated. 63 Table 5 Investment Scenario for Motorized Canoe Sector Investment (motorized canoe) 0 Average number of vessels operating 5 29 Total Harvest (ton) 10 31 15 40 20 40 25 40 30 40 NPV (10%) 40 3,240 3,103 3,426 3,426 3,426 3,426 Total Reveune (USD) 2,021,760 1,936,321 2,137,855 2,137,855 2,137,855 2,137,855 2,137,855 $18,988,771 Net Economic Benefit (USD) 1,289,582 1,219,399 1,335,640 1,335,627 1,335,613 1,335,600 1,335,587 $11,951,939 885,230 832,134 908,069 908,056 908,042 908,029 1,327,617 1,260,057 1,385,464 1,385,464 1,385,464 1,385,464 625,773 589,370 642,908 642,895 642,881 642,868 Resource Rent (USD) 3,426 908,016 $8,154,184 Distribution of benefit Returns to labor (USD) Returns to owners (USD) Returns to government (license fee) (USD) 1,385,464 $12,357,789 642,855 $5,773,044 19. Currently, no vessels in the industrial fleet are considered as domestic vessels, so the net economic benefit and resource rent as well as returns to owners will not be calculated in the investment scenario. The only way Guinea-Bissau can capture some of the net economic benefit and resource rent will continue to come from license fees, wages of domestic crew and fines on illegal fishing activities (which will decrease over time as a result of more effective fisheries surveillance supported through the investment). Most of the growth of industrial sector will come from increased license fees because of improved fish stocks and more interests of foreign vessels. The model assumes the good governance and capacity building will take some time. The first two years will still have a decreasing trend. The license fee will reduce by 5 percent on Year 1 and 2, and then increase by 5 percent from Year 3 (Table 6). With better surveillance, the illegal fishing will also be reduced. From Year 1 to 10, the total revenues from fines are equivalent to roughly 25 percent of the license fee. Beginning in Year 10, it will reduce to 20 percent and then by Year 15, it will reduce to 15 percent. Given the relative weak fisheries surveillance system, the model does not assume illegal fishing will completely disappear. Table 6 Investment Scenario for Industrial Fishery Sector Investment (Industrial) License fee 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 NPV (10%) 14,384,000 15,027,778 19,179,676 19,179,676 19,179,676 19,179,676 19,179,676 156,118,763 Wages of domestic crew 1,003,840 1,048,768 1,405,450 1,475,722 1,549,509 1,626,984 1,708,333 11,721,130 Fine of illegal activities 3,700,000 3,756,945 3,835,935 3,835,935 2,876,951 2,876,951 2,876,951 37,858,357 20. The project will provide support to reform the investment climate for companies to invest in onshore processing in the future, for example by providing training in fish handling and conservation practices, as well as in accessing local commercial micro-finance certifying fisheries‟ products exports. However, there is no data available to estimate the potential benefits and returns to each stakeholder groups. The only data available is the total value of fish export in 2005: US$200,000, which is equivalent to less than 1 percent of the total fish exports. Hence, an increase of the share of domestic processing for fish export is expected in the future, but this is difficult to quantify presently. 21. Table 7 summarizes the differences between the baseline scenario and the investment scenario. Assuming all the investment occurs in the first 2 years, the IRR on Year 5 (end of the project) is 12.5 percent and the NPV of the total net economic benefit over 5 years under 10 percent discount rate is $11.2 million, larger than the project cost ($8 million). The annual benefit by Year 10 will exceed $13 million, generating over $82 million NPV over 30 years, 64 significantly higher than the project cost. The IRR will be nearly 50 percent by Year 10. Considering the long-term goal and special characteristics of fishery sector (the fish stock will take some time to recover), this result will justify the investment of the project. Table 7 Summary of the Economic Analysis Results: Difference due to Project Investment Category Average number of vessels operating Total Harvest (ton) Total Reveune (USD) Net Economic Benefit (USD) Resource Rent (USD) Distribution of benefit Returns to labor (USD) Returns to owners (USD) Returns to government (license fee) (USD) Returns to Government (License fee) Returns to Government (Fine of illegal activities) Returns to Labor (Wages of domestic crew) Total Net Economic Benefit IRR 0 5 10 15 Differences of Artisanal Fishery Sector 27 69 69 993 2,477 2,477 619,869 1,545,587 1,545,587 321,189 801,815 801,805 212,852 531,689 531,678 369,100 919,863 919,863 136,639 341,883 341,873 20 25 30 NPV (10%) 69 2,477 1,545,587 801,400 531,274 69 2,477 1,545,587 801,390 531,263 69 2,477 1,545,587 801,380 531,253 $8,611,293 $4,467,648 $2,962,629 919,863 341,469 919,863 341,458 919,863 341,448 $5,126,045 $1,904,625 Differences in Industrial Fishery Sector 3,897,713 10,567,444 10,567,444 10,567,444 10,567,444 10,567,444 $57,780,885 974,428 1,682,877 1,682,877 723,893 723,893 723,893 13,273,888 272,016 774,362 813,080 853,734 896,421 941,242 $4,471,817 5,465,346 13,826,499 13,865,207 12,946,472 12,989,149 13,033,960 $82,557,260 12.5% 48.2% 51.3% 51.7% 51.7% 51.7% 65 Annex 8: Incremental Cost Analysis Project Objective 1. The development objective of APL-B is to sustainably increase the overall wealth generated by the exploitation of the targeted marine fish resources in Guinea Bissau, and the proportion of that wealth captured by the country. This objective would be achieved by: (i) strengthening the country‟s capacity to sustainably govern and manage its fisheries, (ii) reducing illegal fishing, and (iii) increasing the value and profitability generated by fish resources and the proportion of that value captured by the country. Status Quo 2. Scope and Costs. In the absence of GEF assistance under the baseline scenario, the project will be implemented without particular attention to strengthened governance and in order to help restore globally significant fish stocks in the Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem. Rather the project would be implemented with an emphasis on economic growth and reduction of illegal fishing in the targeted areas, without incorporating reformed governance of the sector that includes ecosystem-based approaches to resource management. (i) Component 1: Good Governance and Sustainable Management of the Fisheries. This component will focus on building the capacity of the Government and stakeholders to develop and implement policies through a shared approach that would ensure that the fish resources are used in a manner that is environmentally sustainable, socially equitable and economically profitable. The baseline costs for this component are US$ 0.3 million. Without GEF funds, this component would only fund increased transparency in the governance of the fisheries, but not fundamental reforms in the way the fisheries are governed and the resources managed. (ii) Component 2: Reduction of Illegal Fishing. This component will focus on investments necessary to build the capacity of Guinea Bissau to reduce illegal fishing in its waters, particularly through greater monitoring, control and surveillance of the fisheries. The baseline costs for this component are estimated at approximately US$4.7 million, which would be financed by IDA. No GEF resources will be applied as co-financing to this component. (iii) Component 3: Increasing the Contribution of the Marine Fish Resources to the Local Economies. This component will focus on helping to move the „offshore economy‟ onshore in Guinea Bissau, by investing in fish landing infrastructure in order to increase the value added locally to fish products, as well as to support the development of local entrepreneurs and services. The baseline costs for this component are estimated at approximately US$0.4 million, which would be financed by IDA. No GEF resources will be applied as co-financing to this component. (iv) Component 4: Coordination, Monitoring and Evaluation and Program Management. This component will focus on supporting the Secretariat of Fisheries in Guinea Bissau to manage 66 and implement the Project‟s activities, including monitoring and evaluation of results, as well as information-sharing and replication. The baseline costs for this component are estimated at approximately US$0.6 million, which would be financed by IDA. GEF resources would support the additional costs associated with management of fundamental governance reforms (see Component 1). 3. Benefits. Implementation of the baseline scenario investment program described above will be expected to generate national benefits as a result of reduced illegal fishing in Guinea Bissau, and subsequent short-term benefits in reduced fishing pressure. The country has very little capacity to conduct fisheries surveillance in its waters to enforce the rule of law and resource management measures, so that the value of the fisheries is steadily decreasing, as a result of „free-riding‟ by illegal vessels. As a result, investors are less willing to pay for access to the resources, steadily eroding the rents collected by the Government and the benefits generated for the economy in Guinea-Bissau. 4. The baseline scenario would, however, be insufficient to produce the global benefits arising from reducing the overexploitation of the fish stocks supporting the targeted fisheries in Guinea Bissau, by failing to strengthen the capacity of the country to govern the use the fisheries and to sustainably manage the resources. The country would be investing in the assets and infrastructure to reduce illegal fishing, without ensuring that the management infrastructure is in place to protect the resource base underpinning the sector. Thus, se veral potential global benefits of more sustainably managing the fisheries resources would be overlooked, including: The development of the rules, capacity and procedures necessary for sustainably managing the resources (such as registration of fishing vessels, monitoring and evaluation of the health of the resources and development of fisheries management plans); The introduction of rights to targeted fisheries in order to give stakeholders long -term incentives to sustainably manage the fish resources; and The importance of strong communication programs with stakeholders to exchange information about the management of the fisheries and the status of the resources, as well as experiences and benefits of restoration efforts. GEF Alternative 5. Scope and Costs. With support from the GEF, an expanded project could be undertaken comprising activities focused on strengthening the capacity of the Government in Guinea Bissau to reduce overexploitation of the targeted fish stocks, and to introduce long-term rights to ensure that stakeholders and communities work in partnership to sustainably co manage the use of the resources. Essentially, the GEF alternative would build sustainable governance efforts into the local economic development activities of the project, incl uding the following incremental activities: (i) Development of the capacity of the Governments of Guinea Bissau to sustainably manage the use of globally significant fisheries. Approximately US$0.6 million in GEF resources would be applied to build the capacity of the Government to 67 strengthen the policy and regulatory framework for good governance of the use of fish resources, including the introduction of international good practices for sustainable fisheries management, drawing upon the lessons of the Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem Project. This would include registering all fishing vessels for management, installing national and transparent fisheries information systems, and the development of sustainable fisheries management plans. (ii) Support for the assessment of the biological and economic status of key fish stocks in targeted fisheries, which would provide sound and transparent basis for decision making by all users. Approximately US$1.0 million in GEF resources would be applied to the targeted fisheries in Guinea Bissau in order to: carry out assessments of coastal shrimp, cephalopod and demersal fish stocks, with special focus on the Common Management Zones shared by Guinea Bissau and Senegal; train staff of the Fisheries Secretariat in data collection techniques at land sites and as observers on offshore fishing vessels in order to provide continuous monitoring of the exploitation status of the main fish stocks, to inform management decisions and the development of industrial and artisanal fisheries management plans; develop a statistical sampling system for small-scale fisheries; study the projected impacts of climate change on the key fish stocks and coastal communities; evaluate the status of the health of the coastal ecosystems underpinning the fish stocks, covering physical, chemical and biological aspects; prepare and maintain a bioeconomic model analysis for the coastal shrimp, cephalopod and demersal fisheries; and carry out a modeling exercise to test different management measures and determine which one would sustainably maximize the benefits in the fisheries. (iii) Feasibility study for the nation-wide extension of pilot co-management partnerships for small-scale fisheries. US$0.1 million in GEF resources would be allocated to carry out the study, which will build on the lessons learned from the Coastal and Biodiversity Management Project, which established a reserved fishing zone in Buba, and identified Cacheu and Cacine as additional potential sites. The study would include a social assessment of fishing communities and propose additional comanagement partnerships such as the Reserved Fishing Zone in Buba, for the remainder of the coasted fisheries, based on specific conditions and regions of the country. This work will inform both fishing communities and the Government of the possibilities to establish and manage additional reserved fishing zones, with the potential to evolve into Territorial Use Rights in Fisheries (TURFs). 6. Benefits. In addition to the national benefits associated with the baseline scenario, global benefits of the GEF alternative include: (i) building capacity in the Government of Guinea Bissau to sustainably manage the fish resources and to reduce overexploitation of the fish stocks, as part of the country‟s broader economic development efforts in the fisheries sector, and (ii) ensuring that the sustainable management of the fish resources underpins any fisheries development efforts in Guinea Bissau. 68 Incremental Cost Matrix 7. The total cost of the baseline scenario is estimated to be US$6.0 million. The GEF alternative is estimated at US$8.0 million. The incremental cost of the GEF alternative is therefore estimated at US$2.0 million. Component Cost US$ Domestic Benefit Category Million 1. Strengthened Governance of the Fisheries Baseline 0.3 Increased transparency in the management of the fish resources. With GEF 2.0 Capacity established in Alternative Guinea Bissau to implement global good practices for sustainable fisheries management. Incremental 1.7 2. Reduction of Illegal Fishing Baseline 4.7 Global Benefit Reductions in fishing pressure on globally significant but overexploited fish stocks, as well as capacity established for longterm sustainable management of these resources. Reduced illegal fishing Short-term reduction in in Guinea Bissau fishing effort on globally significant fish stocks. With GEF 4.7 Alternative Incremental 0 3. Increased Contribution to Local Economies from the Fisheries Baseline 0.4 Increased local landing and processing of fish products. With GEF 0.4 Alternative Incremental 0 4. Coordination, Monitoring and Evaluation and Program Management Baseline 0.6 Management of the implementation of the Project. Implementation of a results-based monitoring and evaluation system, project management With GEF 0.9 Incremental costs of Efficient implementation of Alternative management of fisheries Project activities to reduce governance reforms. fishing pressure on globally significant fish stocks. 69 Transmission of information on fish stock recovery and management, replication of lessons learned Incremental 0.3 Totals Baseline 6.0 With GEF 8.0 Alternative Incremental 2.0 70
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