SAMPLE CHAPTER
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THREAT ASSESMENT
Too many would be protectors eagerly jump into action, feet first
without assessing the threat and shortly find themselves in a
situation that is way out of their depth.
Your threat assessment should answer the following basic - yet
crucial questions:
What is the threat level
Where does the threat come from What type of
protection is required, 12 or 24 hour
Does the principals family also require
protection
What size team will you need
What specialist skills will you need on your
team
For how long will your services be required
What will you need to quote the client
These can be fairly complex questions, the answers to which are
normally far from straight forward. However if you intend doing
the job properly, you will have to start at the beginning and work
your way forward. In order to assess a threat, we need to collect
information about the principal, the threat and the circumstances
surrounding the principal and his present situation. In order to
work systematically, we need to look to the 7P’s for guidance:
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THE SEVEN P’ S OF PROFILING
A threat assessment is about gaining as much information as
possible about the principal and the threat he faces in order to
protect him. The 7P’s are:
POLITICS AND RELIGION
What are the clients political and religious beliefs? Are his views
radical and could this be the source of the threat? Is the client
publicly outspoken on the subjects of religion and politics and is it
conceivable that the threat originates from a group against whom
he has been outspoken or perhaps critical of.
PREJUDICES
Is the client a known racist, sexist or bigot? It would be prudent to
know this before taking the client to certain venues and functions.
If he does indeed appear to have prejudices are they voiced in any
manner that could affect his risk profile?
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PERSONAL LIFESTYLE
What kind of lifestyle does the principal have? Is he a family-man,
a playboy or bachelor? Does he have any affairs and could a
jealous husband or boyfriend of his mistress be the source of the
threat? Is he an active or passive member of the community, does
he serve on any community forums or associations? You will need
to delve into very private areas of your client's life including sexual
preferences, etc. to find the information you need.
PROFESSIONAL LIFESTYLE
What type of business does your principal involve himself in and is
it legitimate? Whom does he have dealings with? Is he working on
any projects that may have an impact on his personal security.
Has he dismissed any employees recently or been involved in legal
or
strike
actions?
Is
he
generally
well
liked
in
his
work
environment or not - few influential executives make it to the top
by making friends.
PUBLIC PROFILE
Is your principal a public figure, the kind of person who attracts
attention and or adoration wherever he goes. Is he well known as
a speaker, actor, entertainer, etc. and could the threat emanate
from a stalker? You will need to place the principals public
activities under close scrutiny to address these questions.
PEOPLE
Look at the people around the principal, his family, colleagues,
friends and associates. It is not uncommon that a drug dealer for
example will try to extract money from a customer by a wealthy
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family member. Spouses should be scrutinized in terms of their
fidelity and possible affairs and the effect that this may have on
the principal.
PAST HISTORY
This can often be the most difficult to analyze, in that the principal
may be very sketchy about his past or simply omit details that he
feels are unimportant. It is vital to establish whether or not his
past could be the source of his problems.
Obtaining the above information is not as easy as it may seem,
you will need to ask very personal questions and business
confidential dealings may be disclosed to you.
Your principal will naturally want to know why you need this
information and you will need to motivate this. Most of the above
information is gleamed by asking the principal directly, or by doing
a few discrete background checks.
Once you have collected the above information, you will need to
analyze it - Threat Analysis.
Look at the information before you and plot it according to its
importance and relevance. Look for the most likely origin of the
threat, however never discount other possibilities no matter how
apparent one in particular may be.
When compiling your assessment, remember that it is a key
business document and as such should be presented in a factual,
logical manner with all assumptions based on supporting facts.
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You should use the above information to classify the threat, there
are various ways to classify a threat, we shall work to the standard
of:
I already hear many of my colleagues crying that there is no such
thing as a Medium Threat. In clarification, you will find many
industry stalwarts who prefer to work to the principle of High
Threat or unknown (no) threat. As always there is no clear right or
wrong here, it’s a matter of personal preference and mine is
always to be as comprehensive as possible when analyzing
information. As a result I like to identify threats as High, Medium
and Low, but this is only my personal preference – you make your
own choice here.
Once you have isolated the most probable cause of the threat
against your principal you will need to research the threat itself in
terms of the probability that the threat will be carried out, who
might present the actual threat, what methods they are known to
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have used or have at their disposal and how the attack is likely to
be carried out.
Armed with an accurate threat assessment and analysis, you will
be able to establish the principals need and make the necessary
recommendations. Considering the threat level and capabilities of
the threat, you can start to build a team with the required skills for
the task at hand.
If your assessment shows a threat with a history of motor vehicle
bombings for example, you will need to include an IED specialist
on your team and similar specialties according to the threat faced.
You will also have an accurate idea of the team strength required.
For example, let us look at how a simple scenario unfolds.
Mr. X requires your services as he has been threatened by an
extremist group. These extremists, have a violent history of
bombings and related acts of terror to achieve their objectives,
often targeting families of the principal concerned as an indirect
means to and end.
Therefore, you will need at least three people to protect Mr. X
(two to protect and one to drive). Keeping the obviously high
threat in mind, he will require 24 hour protection, which means
two shifts - your team is now 6. His wife will also need at least one
person, this means your team is now 7. Factor into this the size of
his residence and the need for a residential team and your team
could rapidly become 10 strong or more. Add an advance party of
even just one or two operatives on a day shift and you’re up to 12!
A simple scenario has now become quite complex, and only by
carefully analyzing the threat will you be able to foresee such
issues and plan accordingly.
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Your threat assessment is crucial! Without it, there will be little
structure to your team, less forethought to special skills required
and you will in essence, amble along expecting the unknown. You
need to be alert for specific trademarks of the threat you have
assessed.
The threat assessment should be available to the full team and
updated on a regular basis to incorporate new facts and analyze
their implications on the overall protective effort.
As you become more and more adept at compiling assessments,
you will realize that there are certain tricks of the trade that will
make your task that much easier. This will ultimately enable you through practice - to compile meaningful assessments complete
with profiles and facts, within a very short space of time indeed.
Information and access to it is the key to an assessment, and will
have a tremendous impact on the time it takes to complete one.
Reading the daily newspaper and weekend papers may seem a
trivial pursuit to some, however to the skilled protector it is
essential. They are a mine of information (taken with a pinch of
salt and some common sense) in terms of background knowledge
to issues of a political, business, sporting and criminal nature. You
will find that as your general knowledge improves you will retain
certain facts and viewpoints.
All of these will assist in directing your search for information
when compiling an assessment.
Threat Assessment is VITAL to the overall protective effort
– Ignore it at your own risk!
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PROFILE SAMPLE CHECKLIST
PERSONAL DETAILS OF YOUR PRINCIPAL
Full name
Date of birth
Place of birth
Nationality
Height
Weight
Physical description (attach photo)
MEDICAL
Physician
Contact numbers
Blood group
Medical history
Current ailments
Allergies
FAMILY SPOUSE & CHILDREN
Full name
Date of birth
Place of birth
Nationality
Height
Weight
POLITICS AND RELIGION
RELIGION
Denomination
Place of worship
Minister
Day and time of worship
Period at place of worship
Position held
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POLITICS
Political affiliations past and present
Specific standpoints maintained
Rallies attended and to attend in future
Political aspirations
PROFESSIONAL LIFESTYLE
BUSINESS
Name of business
Nature of business
Ownership of company
Position held in company
Physical address
Telephone
Fax
E-mail
Secretary
SOCIAL
Regular sports and social activities
Club memberships
Club positions held
When sport is practiced
PAST ACTIONS AND AFFILIATIONS
Any military experience
Which unit(s)
What period
Any medals / commendations
Border duty
Operations participated in
Any other pertinent information
PREJUDICES
Any known leftist or right wing tendencies
Any racial prejudices
Any sexual prejudices
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