1. No category

NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF PUBLIC SERVICE
FACULTY OF MILITARY SCIENCES AND OFFICERS' TRAINING
PHD INSTITUTE IN MILITARY TECHNOLOGY
Gerald Mies, Dipl.-Ing.
Robotics in 2030
A new understanding of the relationship of the
robotics and education
Doctoral (PhD) Dissertation
Scientific Leader:
Prof. Dr. SZABOLCSI, Róbert, PhD, Dr. habil., Col (OF5)
2012. BUDAPEST
CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................................................7
THE SCIENTIFIC PROBLEM .................................................................................................8
AIMS OF RESEARCH .............................................................................................................8
RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS .....................................................................................................9
RESEARCH METHODS ..........................................................................................................9
PROSPECTIVE SCIENTIFIC RESULTS AND EXPLOITATION .......................................10
CHAPTER I.................................................................................................................................11
1. ROBOTICS IN PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE ................................................................11
1.1. ORIGINS OF THE ROBOTICS AND THEIR DEVELOPMENT OF THE PAST TILL
THE PRESENT .......................................................................................................................11
1.2. INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE OVERVIEW ...............................................11
1.3. ANCIENT ROBOT SOLUTIONS ...............................................................................13
1.4. ROBOTICS IN THE MEDIEVALS ............................................................................14
1.5. THE NEW ERA – EARLY INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS ................................................16
1.6. MODERN ERA OF ROBOTICS, AUTOMATION AND PROCESS CONTROL ....18
1.7. CONCLUSIONS ..........................................................................................................20
1.8. NEW RESULT, SCIENTIFIC RESULTS ...................................................................21
2. DEVELOPMENT OF ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATION IN INDUSTRY ....................22
2.1. INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE OVERVIEW ..............................................22
2.2. INDUSTRIAL AND MILITARY APPLICATIONS OF AUTOMATION AND
ROBOTICS .........................................................................................................................23
2.3. ROBOT CONTROLLERS ...........................................................................................25
2.4. ROBOT SENSORS ......................................................................................................26
2.5. STANDARD- AND ADWANCED ROBOT APPLICATIONS .................................27
2.6. CONCLUSIONS ..........................................................................................................31
2.7. NEW RESULT, SCIENTIFIC RESULTS ...................................................................32
CHAPTER II. ..............................................................................................................................32
MILITARY - AND INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS............................................................................32
1. MILITARY ROBOTS OF THE PRESENT AND THE FUTURE ....................................32
1.1. INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE OVERVIEW ..............................................32
1.2. FIRST MILITARY EQUIPMENT WITH ROBOT RELATED ABILITIES .............33
1.3. MILITARY ROBOTS ACCORDING TO THE DEFINITION OF ‘ROBOTICS’ ....36
1.4. FUTURE MILITARY ROBOTS .................................................................................38
1.5. CONCLUSIONS ..........................................................................................................41
1.6. NEW RESULT, SCIENTIFIC RESULTS ...................................................................41
2. TERROR THREAT FROM USING ACCESSIBLE, INDUSTRIAL, TECHNICAL
PRODUCTS ............................................................................................................................42
2.1. INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE OVERVIEW ..............................................42
2.2 EXPORT CONTROLS .................................................................................................43
2.3. MISUSE OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS ..................................................................44
2.3.1. PRIVATE ROBOT ENTHUSIASTS........................................................................44
2.3.2. POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS ..............................................................................45
2.3.3. NO TECHNOLOGY ADVANTAGE ANYMORE .................................................46
2.3.4. ROBOT DECISIONS ...............................................................................................47
2.4. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................48
2.5. NEW RESULT, SCIENTIFIC RESULTS ...................................................................48
CHAPTER III. .............................................................................................................................49
BASIC ROBOT TECHNOLOGIES AND THEIR TEACHING IN EDUCATION ..................49
1. MECHANICS AND MATHEMATICS IN ROBOTS, ROBOT-CONTROLS
DEVELOPMENT AND UES OF ROBOTS IN EDUCATION .............................................49
1.1. INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE OVERVIEW ............................................49
1.1.2.
PRINCIPLES OF MECHANICS IN DEVELOPMENT OF ROBOTS ...............51
1.1.3. PRINCIPLES OF MATHEMATICS IN DEVELOPMENT OF ROBOTS .............53
1.1.4.
PRINCIPLES OF MODERN AND POST-MODERN ROBOT- CONTROL .....56
1.2.1. ROBOT APPLICATIONS IN EDUCATION ..........................................................57
1.2.1.1. THREE EXAMPLES FOR DIFFERENT UNIVERSITY ROBOTEDUCATIONS CONCEPTS ..............................................................................................59
1.3. CONCLUSIONS ..........................................................................................................60
1.4. NEW RESULT, SCIENTIFIC RESULTS ...................................................................62
2. CONTROLS, SENSORIC AND SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT OF ROBOTS AND
AUTOMATION ......................................................................................................................63
2.1.
INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE OVERVIEW ...........................................63
2.2. DESIGN OF ROBOT CONTROLS ............................................................................65
2.3. PAYLOAD, SPEED AND LIGHTWEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ..................................67
2.4. SENSORS AND COMMUNICATION WITH EXTERNAL SENSORS ...................69
2.5. SOFTWARE-TOOLS ..................................................................................................69
2.6. SAFETY ROBOTS SYSTEMS OR “SAFE ROBOT” ................................................71
2.7. MULTI AXIS SYSTEMS AND COOPERATING ROBOTS ....................................74
2.8.
ENERGY EFFICIENT ROBOTS.............................................................................76
2.9.
CONCLUSIONS .......................................................................................................78
2.10. NEW RESULT, SCIENTIFIC RESULTS .................................................................79
CHAPTER IV .............................................................................................................................80
ROBOTIC AND HUMAN SOCIETY ........................................................................................80
1. ROBOTICS INFLUENCING HUMAN SOCIETY ...........................................................80
1.1.
INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE OVERVIEW .......................................80
1.2.
HISTORICAL OVERVIEW ....................................................................................81
1.3.
ROBOTIC DEVICES IN INDUSTRIAL ENVIRONMENTS ................................82
1.4.
ROBOTS ENABLE MASS PRODUCTION ...........................................................82
1.5.
INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS AS THEY ARE KNOWN TODAY ................................83
1.6.
COMPUTERS CONQUER THE WORLD ..............................................................83
1.7.
CHANGES IN HUMAN SOCIETY LEAD BY AUTOMATION AND ROBOTICS
84
1.8.
TEACHING OF AUTOMATION AND ROBOTICS .............................................86
1.9.
CONCLUSION .........................................................................................................87
1.10. NEW RESULT, SCIENTIFIC RESULTS .................................................................88
2. NEW UNDERSTANDING OF ROBOTICS ....................................................................89
2.1.
INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE OVERVIEW ...........................................89
2.2
FRIEND OR FOE? PRIVILEGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF ROBOTICS .....90
2.2.1. PRODUCTIVITY – INDUSTRIES PROFIT MOST ...............................................91
2.2.2. ADVANTAGES BECOME STANDARDS – ROBOTICS IN PRIVATE LIFE.....92
2.2.3. MORE SAFETY – ROBOTS ON THE BATTLEFIELD ........................................93
2.2.4. ROBOT LAWS AND RIGHTS ................................................................................94
2.3. ROBOTICS IN COMMON LIFE ................................................................................94
2.3.1. ROBOTIC AIDS IN MANY FIELDS OF LIFE ......................................................95
2.4. NEW FIELDS OF ROBOTICS ...................................................................................96
2.5. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................98
2.6. NEW RESULT, SCIENTIFIC RESULTS ...................................................................98
CHAPTER V. ..............................................................................................................................99
A NEW UNDERSTANDING OF TEACHING OF ROBOTICS ..............................................99
1. A GLOBAL WORLD IN 2030 ...........................................................................................99
1.1. INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE OVERVIEW ..............................................99
1.2.
IFR/VDMA DATA RESERCH..................................................................................100
1.2.1 INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS: DEFINITION AND CLASSIFICATION .....................100
1.2.2. SERVICE ROBOTS: DEFINITION AND CLASSIFICATION ............................104
1.3. INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS WORLDWIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENT .....................106
1.3.1. MARKET- DENSITY OF INDUSTRIAL ROBOT ...............................................107
1.3.1.1. DEFINITION OF ROBOT DENSITY ................................................................108
1.3.1.2. ROBOT DENSITY BASED ON THE TOTAL NUMBER OF PERSONS
EMPLOYED IN THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY ..............................................108
1.4. SERVICE ROBOTS WORLDWIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENT ............................114
1.4.1. SERVICE ROBOTS FOR PERSONAL AND DOMESTIC USE .........................114
1.4.2. SERVICE ROBOTS FOR PROFESSIONAL USE ................................................114
1.5.
DATA PROJECTION 2030 ...................................................................................115
1.5.1. SOURCE DATA AND PROJECTION METHODS FOR INDUSTRIAL
ROBOTS ...........................................................................................................................115
1.5.2. SOURCE DATA AND PROJECTION METHODS FOR SERVICE ROBOTS
FOR PROFESSIONAL USE ............................................................................................121
1.6.
TEACHING OF ROBOTICS .....................................................................................123
1.6.1.
TEACHING PROFESSIONAL SERVICE ROBOTS ........................................123
1.6.2. TEACHING INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS ...................................................................124
1.7.
CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................................125
1.8.
NEW SCIENTIFIC RESULTS ...............................................................................126
CHAPTER VI. ..........................................................................................................................127
SUMMARISED CONCLUSIONS ...........................................................................................127
NEW SCIENTIFIC RESULTS .................................................................................................127
1. Development motivations and target group as market indications ...................................128
1.1. Different motivations for development in the history of robotics ..............................128
1.2. Different target groups influencing development ......................................................128
2. Correlation between human society and the status of robotics .........................................128
2.1. The changes status of robotics in human society and markets has a direct impact on
education. ..........................................................................................................................128
2.2. There is a permanent changing status of the robotics ................................................129
2.3. Acceptance of intelligent machines in human environment ......................................129
3. Market development in robotics and future projection .....................................................129
3.1. Barriers and threats to the market growth of the robotic ............................................129
3.2. Software- technology as catalyst to robotics market growth .....................................130
3.3. Military robots as dominating factor of market- growth in the category “service robots
for professional use”..........................................................................................................130
4. Education as key- function for the future success of robotics...........................................131
4.1. Robot supplier and universities are responsible for demand-oriented teaching and
education. ..........................................................................................................................131
4.2. The permanent changing robot- status implied permanent modification of teaching
methods .............................................................................................................................131
RECOMMENDATIONS ..........................................................................................................132
1. INDUSTRY .......................................................................................................................132
2. EDUCATION ....................................................................................................................132
3. ASSOCIATIONS ..............................................................................................................132
CHAPTER VII ..........................................................................................................................133
1. RELEVANT PUBLICATIONS ........................................................................................133
2. RELATED PUBLICATIONS ...........................................................................................133
3. REFERRED PUBLICATIONS.........................................................................................134
4. FIGURES ..........................................................................................................................142
INTRODUCTION
Robotics in 2030 – A new understanding of the relationship of the robotics and education.
The robotics is one of the largest fields in engineering today. No other subject in machine
building growths so fast in the last decade.
The IFR (International Federation of Robotics) introduced on May 2012 their market datas.
They call it the “Industrial breakthrough with robots” with 2011 as “the most successful year
for industrial robots since 1961”.
Since the first installation in 1961 more than 2.3 million were sold all over the world [110]
In the year 2011 about 165,000 industrial robots were sold worldwide. 37% more than previous
year.
This growth is true all robot related industries and worldwide, in emerging countries and in
nations having a long industrial tradition.
But not only these enormous growth made robotics so important in the present industry, it is
also the spread into different branches.
Was it the automotive industry and metal fabrication the place where the most robots are
installed in the 80ies, are robots today installed in nearly all branches.
The range is from automotive industry, metal products, food, pharmacy, plastic, ceramics and
services.
Beside the traditional requirements on robots like cost saving, quality and quantity increase,
three reasons became responsible for this evolution of robotics in new sector of applications:
1.
2.
3.
The development of new robot types
The development of new abilities of robots
The demand for flexible automation in production
1.
The development of new robot types:
In the early 90ies the first palletizing robots became developed and open the market in the
beverage and brick and tiles industry.
At the same time the small 3kg payload articulated robots became introduced to the market and
creates a big success in the machine tool industry.
Today both robot types belong to the leading automation devices in their branches.
2.
The development of new abilities of robots:
The development of aux axis controls opens the markets for complex ARC-welding
applications. With this technology robotized ARC- welding became to a quality standard and
enabled welding solutions on safety parts.
3.
The demand for flexible automation in production:
The demand for flexible quantities and “just in time productions” in industry, let robots enter in
branches where nobody expects them in the past.
Here is special the food industry nameable where Robot are cutting meat, turning Champaign
bottles, slicing bread, cutting lettuce or packing tomatoes.
The market investigations of VDMA (German association of machinery and equipment) and
IFR (International Federation of Robotics) shows, that robotics will farther growth in all
sectors.
If the robot population will carry on like this, the robot will become more and more important
in engineering.
Traditional special machines become replaced from standard robots. That means a special
designed machine will be replaced from an extremely flexible, large scale production machine.
This evolution in engineering will create a new need for high educated people with special
qualification on these technologies.
Universities and Industry have to react to these new requirements.
THE SCIENTIFIC PROBLEM
Prognosis of market developments can become easy like looking in the proverbial crystal ball.
For example in the 70th nobody expects the revolution in communication with internet and
mobile phones.
The scientific problem is to find the right emphasis of market and development indications to
estimate future trends in robotics and automation.
In terms of robotic are the interacting variables who build the basis of any future estimation
coming from technical and economical academic disciplines.
In the past most influence to automation and robotics brought the improvement in electronics
and numeric controls.
Also the economic developments enabled the new technologies success when investments for
automation products reach the targets of the industrial customers.
In future will also special developments in sensoric and offline programming influence the
success of robotics. Here is special the progress in vision technology one of the most important
part.
Vision technologies enables the robots to detect there environment and is therefore responsible
for many possible interactions.
AIMS OF RESEARCH

Investigation in market developments past and future:
Branches, economical indications, global production, quality expectations

Investigation in technical developments:
IT and NC, sensoric, vision systems, new materials, software, offline programming
tools.

Investigation of the social development:
Education, acceptance of new technologies,

Future projection of the robot population in 2030

Solutions: recommendation for future directions in research and developing of schools,
universities and industry.
RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS
In past the evolution of robotics became different than it was estimated. The literature at this
time understood robots as humanoid machines, but humanoid robots remain as fiction. Robots
today are intelligent machines and manipulators with different mechanical degrees of freedoms.
Very different appearance to human.
Later robot was seen as competition for human labour where cheap automation systems replace
people.
Unions start to demand a special robot tax to protect people against unemployment because of
robot use.
Also this expectation turned in to the opposite. Quality became the new driver of robotics and
not the labour cost. So the robots enabled the progress in quality of production.
With the globalization, when manual labour moved to China, India and other low cost
countries, the industrial countries have to optimize their production.
With this challenge automation and robotic got their largest growth in history. At this time the
robot population increased much faster than in the past.
These examples feed the following hypothesis:
The prognostic of the demand in industry for the next 20 years will give the best estimation for
development and growth of robotics up to 2030.
RESEARCH METHODS
Literature Research:






The literature research is decisively concentrated upon the following areas:
Technical literature in English and German
Publications of universities, colleges, institutes
International theses, dissertations
Publications of the organizations and institutions
Professional magazines, technical newspapers
Internet publications of academically technical results


Literature and publications of companies
Publications international scientific conferences and symposia
Comparative critical analysis:




Database research:
VDMA Database (VDMA: Verband Deutscher Maschinen und Anlagenbauer)
IFR Database (IFR: International Federation of Robotics)
JARA Databases (JARA: Japan Robot Association)
FANUC Robotics Databases
Market Investigations:




VDMA Database
Automation symposium: MTB –Symposia, ARC-Symposia
International Automation Fairs: AUTOMATICA, MOTECH, I-REX
Automation Magazines: AUTOMATION, PRODUCTION, MASCHINENMARKT,
MAV, QUALITÄT&AUTOMATION, VDI NACHRICHTN,
Tools: Excel, Access, Internet,
PROSPECTIVE SCIENTIFIC RESULTS AND EXPLOITATION
The title of the Dissertation, “Robotics in 2030, new understanding of the relationship of the
robotics and education”, aims in two directions of the scientific investigations.
The first direction is the prognosis of the robot development till 2030, with the analysis of the
development of total numbers, the technical development regarding performance, abilities,
models and the distribution after ranges of application, branches and geographic places of
production.
The second direction is an investigation of the interaction on research and education in 2030
which claims changes by the growing robots population and his growing abilities.
The two main subjects of a future estimation for technical development in general can be made
under consideration of statistics who display the history and the current state-of-science.
How Robots look, how their population is, how their abilities are or what they costs will be, is
always a result with the failure of the unknown inventions and developments in future.
The effect of a technology on the society and environment is easier to determine. There is it
many examples from the past where the spreading and advancement of a technical product has
had influence on the life and on the behaviour of human.
Now the effects of the Robotic are already to be recognised in all his forms and permit a good
forecast in the future.
By the projection of the installed robots for 2030 one can deliver a good forecast about the
appearance to future production plants. This will be one of the scientific results to be expected
of the thesis.
Another result will be a consideration of the developing and emerging countries which
immediately leap over of several evolution steps of the automation and get directly into the
robot-supported production.
Based from the actual state-of-the-art in the robotics, a necessary change stands out already
today concerning the technical and university education.
In the past engineers were trained in mechanical, electric and mathematical bases of robotic.
The growing variety of the robot models and the explosive increase of the robot abilities,
change the demand in engineers. The industry needs more and more engineers who are able to
design economic and efficient production plant out of these robot portfolios.
A prospective exploitation of the scientific work will be a recommendation for the education of
engineers in the Robotic for industry and universities.
CHAPTER I
1. ROBOTICS IN PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE
1.1. ORIGINS OF THE ROBOTICS AND THEIR DEVELOPMENT OF THE PAST
TILL THE PRESENT
1.2. INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE OVERVIEW
The development of robotics is feed from different motivations. The first motivation was the
wish to build a humanoid machine to replace human. The second motivation was the need in
industry because many devices, fixtures and manipulators need to become more flexible. The
humanoid robots of cause are the most spectacular developments but for real use are these
machines technical and commercial not mature. The evolution on industrial robots was in
parallel to the developments in the electronic industry and even the first robots reach their
technical and commercial goals. Driven by these facts, the evolution of industrial robots was
much faster than there humanoid relatives. The future of robotics will be very close related to
the demand in industry that needs flexible and efficient automation solutions. The industrial
robot is the key instrument of automation today and all the indications for future shows that its
importance’s will constant grow. This is why my focus will be on the future development of
industrial robots [19].
Fig. 1: R.U.R - Rossums
Universal Robots
Karel Capek (1920 CEC)
Fig. 2: Metropolis
Fritz Lang (1927 GER
153')
Fig 3: Unimate robot hand
Various connotations are related to the term robot. People may think of humanoid machines
from science-fiction stories, others have an image of industrial tools that substitute workers in
production facilities. Both images, however, share a common history that is much older than
Star Wars and the industrial age. The first mechanic tools and automations are part of this
history and today they are considered the source of robotic development. This paper will deal
with earliest historic facts related to this development in ancient history. It will give an
overview about robotic endeavors during the middle Ages and the rapid development of
robotics as part of the Industrial Revolution. Finally, very recent robotic history beginning
with the mid-20th -century will be of major importance in the last chapter.
Researching the topic of robotics leads to many different resources in literature. Ancient robot
solutions are rarely described in separate books, but part of general works on history. [1]
Silverman, for example, collected works on different parts of life in his book Ancient Egypt
including first agricultural solutions like the shaduf. [2] Needham dealt with Chinese history
referring to water clocks in Science and Civilisation in China. In Hidden History: Lost
Civilizations, Secret Knowledge, and Ancient Mysteries by [3] Haughton the author mentions
Aristotle’s first thoughts about “mechanical slaves” that would substitute humans as slaves,
thus creating more equality.
Looking at the Middle Ages [4] Taddei is to be named as one of the experts in Leonardo da
Vinci’s works having re-built several of them, which is described in Leonardo da Vinci’s
Robots. Later theoretic advances in mathematics, for example, become part of the robotic
history, too. [5] Grattan-Guinness & Bornet dealt with the life and work of George Boole who
formulated the “The Mathematical Analysis of Logic” – a crucial work in computer science.
An elaborate book on robotics during the modern era is contributed by [6] Angelo. Robotics:
a reference guide to the new technology includes not only chapters on the history of robotics
but also deals with how they work and how they influence everyday life and society. The
future of their development is a topic, as well, like it is in [7] Schraft & Schmierer. In Service
Robots the authors give an outlook on the robotic world.
There are a number of further literary resources that are mentioned in this paper as well as
various works that are drawn from online contents.
1.3. ANCIENT ROBOT SOLUTIONS
Ancient history offers different technological achievements that are said to be the earliest
robotic milestones. Egyptians used mechanical constructions to lift water from the river or a
channel onto the field already in 2.000 BC. This so-called shaduf consisted of a post that
acted as a pivot for a cross-pole. This pole could swing in all directions having attached a
container at the one end and a counterweight at the other, which made the handling easier [1]
(Silverman, 2003, 60).
Fig. 4: Shaduf, Edwards, Amelia B. "A Thousand Miles up the Nile."
This invention was followed by the development of the first water clocks around 1.400 BC by
both the Babylonians and the Egyptians. The Chinese, too, worked on such clocks and
brought them to their highest perfection [2] (Needham, 1959, 313).
Fig. 5: Needham, 1959, 313f, Babylonian water clock
In Chinese history there are further hints to robotic inventions as is shown by a Lie Zi text
written in the 3rd century BC that describes an encounter between King Mu of Zhou and Yan
Shi, a mechanical engineer. This event reaches back to the 10th century BC: "The king stared
at the figure in astonishment. It walked with rapid strides, moving its head up and down, so
13
that anyone would have taken it for a live human being. The artificer touched its chin, and it
began singing, perfectly in tune. He touched its hand, and it began posturing, keeping perfect
time. As the performance was drawing to an end, the robot winked its eye and made advances
to the ladies in attendance, whereupon the king became incensed and would have had Yen
Shih [Yan Shi] executed on the spot had not the latter, in mortal fear, instantly taken the robot
to pieces to let him see what it really was. And, indeed, it turned out to be only a construction
of leather, wood, glue and lacquer, variously coloured white, black, red and blue. Examining
it closely, the king found all the internal organs complete—liver, gall, heart, lungs, spleen,
kidneys, stomach and intestines; and over these again, muscles, bones and limbs with their
joints, skin, teeth and hair, all of them artificial...The king tried the effect of taking away the
heart, and found that the mouth could no longer speak; he took away the liver and the eyes
could no longer see; he took away the kidneys and the legs lost their power of locomotion.
The king was delighted." [2] (Needham, 1959, 313)
The Greek philosopher, mathematician, and astronomer Archytas of Tarentum is said to have
contributed another early work to the field of robotics. Around 425 BC he constructed the socalled “pigeon”, the first flying machine in history. A system of jet propulsion (presumably
driven by compressed air) powered the model on a flight distance of 200 metres. (Technology
Museum of Thessaloniki, 2001).
Aristotle dealt with machines and tools from a social point of view recognizing them not only
as useful but as a step towards equality: “If every tool, when ordered, or even of it own
accord, could do the work that befits it…then there would be no need either of apprentices for
the master workers or of slaves for the lords.” [3](Haughton, 2006, 127)
The ancient Greeks were fascinated by automated and movable constructions of every kind
even using them in theatre productions and religious ceremonies. Around 200 BC, driven by
this interest, the inventor and physicist Ctesibus of Alexandria designed new water clocks that
had movable figures on them. Since water clocks measure time as a result of water falling
through it at a constant rate they are seen as a big breakthrough for timepieces. Before that the
Greeks used hourglasses that had to be turned over and over.[8] Robotics 2005
Of course, people back then did not speak of robots (this term was introduced much later),
however, ancient Greeks came up with the word “automaton” describing self-operating
machines. Hero of Alexandria (c. 10 – 70 AD) was another representative of the Greek
scientist who dealt with these automata. He picked up the works of Ctesibus and published
descriptions of engines that still had to be built. In the 16 th century his writings about
hydraulics, pneumatics, and mechanics were translated into Latin, which led to
reconstructions of a steam-powered devices, a wind-powered organ, and a fire-engine to name
just three. The technological capabilities at this time may have been insufficient to build these
objects and the existent constructions were still very simple, but all of these ideas have just
been the first step to a long history in robotics.
1.4. ROBOTICS IN THE MEDIEVALS
From the 8th to the 13th century significant Muslim figures designed and invented automata of
different kinds. While the alchemist Geber had the idea of constructing snakes, scorpions, and
humans that could be controlled by their creator others already built automata for practical
reasons as well as for entertainment. From 827 and 915 there are reports of golden trees that
had swinging branches or singing birds. Engineers built these constructions for the local
palaces. In the 9th century the Muslim inventors made another significant step when they
described the first programmable machines. In the “Book of Ingenious Devices” the Banu
Musa brothers present their idea of an automatic flute player. Al-Jazari finally constructed
such a programmable machine in 1206. His invention was a boat carrying four automatic
14
musicians that were used to entertain the royals at drinking parties. The inventor also built the
first hand washing automata working similarly to modern flush toilets. [9] (Koetsier, 2001,
Sheffield, 2009)
The huge Muslim interest in automata of every kind must have been unique at this time,
because there are no records from such an interest on European side at this time. The first
known person to deal with this topic in medieval Europe was Leonardo da Vinci who is
famous for many technical constructions. One of these was a humanoid automaton from
which it is not known if it was built, when da Vinci designed it around 1495, but more recent
attempts to build the robot from the old design showed that the inner mechanics were fully
workable [4](Taddei, 2007, 420).
Fig. 6: Model of a robot based on drawings by Leonardo da Vinci
In the period from 1500 to 1800 many inventors built automata that tied in with previous
works and improved them a lot. These machines were capable of playing different songs, they
acted, and they even flew like the iron-made eagle and fly from Johannes Müller von
Königsberg in 1533. Wilhelm Schickard and Blaise Pascal developed to of the more famous
mechanical calculators during this time – the calculating clock and the Pascaline, respectively.
Jaques de Vaucansons contributed a lot of inventions during his lifetime and is famous for his
“Digesting Duck” from 1739.
Fig. 7: Jaques de Vaucansons“Digesting Duck” from 1739
15
Rumour has it that hits mechanical duck was able to eat grains and metabolize as well as
defecate them. The truth was that an inner container collected the grains and the feces were
pre-stored in a second container. However, the duck remained famous: it was reconstructed
and is exhibited in the Museum auf Automaton in Grenoble, France. [10] (Wood, 2002)
Around this time automata awoke the interest of the production sector as well. When John
Kay came up with his “flying shuttle” in 1733 and James Hargreaves invented the so-called
“Spinning Jenny” increased production speed in weaving and spinning, respectively,
significantly. The first fully automated spinning machine was created by Samuel Crompton.
His “Spinning Mule” enabled producers to spin hundreds of threads at once. Finally, the water
powered weaving machine built by Richard Arkwright initiated the Industrial Revolution in
1781. It took only twenty years to have the whole cloth production fully automated. The use
of automation and mechanic tools was more than obvious by then.
Fig. 8: Samuel Cromptons “Spinning Mule” 1779
Algorithmic studies in the meantime led to another invention by Pierre and Henri Jaquet-Droz
who in 1772 built a robot child that was able to write up to 40 characters. They called their
invention L’Ecrivain. A mechanic computer was used as a “brain” to perform the writing.
[11] (Barth, 2003, 10, [12] Robotworx, 2009)
1.5. THE NEW ERA – EARLY INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS
After the revolutionary inventions from the previous century automation went on and people
started to have new visions and ideas. Especially the concept of programmable machines was
becoming popular. Charles Babbage and Ada Lovelace began work on the Analytical Engine
in 1833. The device was supposed to be operated by punch cards in order to perform multiple
operations. However, the construction was never completed.
Another important if only theoretical step in the development of computers and robots was
made by George Boole in 1847 when he formulated “The Mathematical Analysis of Logic“.
He stated that Logic should be applied not with philosophy but with mathematics, which was
a crucial understanding for works on programmable machines. Today this concept is one of
the basic instruments in computer science and robotics.[5] (Grattan-Guinness & Bornet, 1997,
[13] Encyclopædia Britannica, 2009)
In 1888 Nikola Tesla invented the induction motor, the first motor that was able to run on
alternated current. The invention was more than important point in robotic history, because
the technology used today is basically the same as used by Tesla. A rotating electromagnetic
16
field is the makes the motor run. Thus, the rotating parts do not have any contacts to
electrodes, which reduces both friction and abrasion.[14] (McNichol, 2006)
People in the 19th century still did not speak of robots. It was the Czech author Karel Čapek
who in 1921 introduced this term in his play R.U.R. (Rossum’s Universal Robots). The word
is derived from the Czech word robota meaning “compulsory labour” [15] (Christensen,
2007).
The first robot on film was seen in 1926 in Fritz Lang’s Metropolis. Only shortly later, in
1927 and 1928 the United States and Japan, respectively, created the first real robots. The US
robot was named Televox and operated through the telephone system while Japan’s
Gakutensoku was able to change facial expressions and move its head and hands. An air
pressure system made the system work.[16] (Daily Yomiuri, 2008).
Fig. 9: Gakutensoku, 1928 Osaka Science Museum
However, most robots were built during this period for public relations purposes even before
computer-controlled servomechanisms became a part of everyday life. One of the first
industrial robots was designed in 1938 by the Americans Willard Pollard and Harold
Roselund. It was a programmable paint-spraying mechanism for the DeVilbiss Company. [17]
(Rosheim, 1994, 70,[12] Robotworx, 2009)
Meanwhile the development of computer technology celebrated another milestone when
Vannevar Bush developed a computer that could solve differential equations, the so-called
Differential Analyzer. In 1939 John Vincent Atanasoff and Clifford Berry created two
electrical computers that are known as the Atanasoff-Berry Computer. Many people depict
ENIAC (Electronical Numerical Integrator And Computer) as the first electronical computer.
John Maulchy and J. Presper Eckert designed the computer that began to work in 1947, but
Maulchy is said to have stolen the ideas from Atanasoff during a lecture in 1940. [18] (Do,
1996)
Meanwhile the first programmable digital computers were built – in 1941 Konrad Zuse’s Z3
and in 1944 Howard Aiken’s and Grace Hopper’s Mark 1. Work on similar computers went
on several years until the British company Lyons built LEO, the first software programmable
digital electronic computer. Lyons used the device for their own purpose and ran business
application programs from 1951 onwards.
17
Fig. 10: Programmable digital Computer Z3, Konrad Zuse 1941
1.6. MODERN ERA OF ROBOTICS, AUTOMATION AND PROCESS CONTROL
Robotic developments on the one hand and computer science on the other reached a level that
automatically led to the construction of industrial tools that would change the world of
producing lastingly. Industrial robots became more and more popular after 1950 and their
capabilities have grown ever since.
The needs of the growing nuclear industry expedited the development of robotics, especially
teleoperated robots, like the one Raymond Goertz designed for the Atomic Energy
Commission in 1951. From now on people were able to operate certain task in safe distance
with help of such robotic arms. Not only the nuclear industry was in need of such
technologies, but other industrial branches were interested, too. [6](Angelo, 2007, 179)
Only a few years after Goertz’ construction, in 1954, George Devol designed the first
programmable robot. The engineer not only coined the term Universal Automation but
together with the engineer Joseph Engelberger he founded the first robot company two years
later. It was named Unimation. Joseph Engelberger knew about the importance of robots and
the use for companies. Automobile manufacturers, for instance, were facing a growing
demand for cars and, thus, looking for more efficient ways to work at the assembly lines.
Uitmation, finally, delivered a solution, the one-armed Unimate robot. General Motors has
used this robot from 1959 onwards to unload hot die casts, to cool the components, and to
process them to a trim press.[6] (Angelo, 2007, 41f.)
Fig. 11: Unimate Robot at General Motors 1959
18
Computer science, too, has had its visionaries during this time. In 1955 John McCarthy and
Marvin Minsky speak of “artificial intelligence” (AI) for the first time, when they described
computers that were able to perform certain human thoughts. The real interest in this topic
became obvious when they established an artificial intelligence research institute at the M.I.T.
Soon they were followed by other institutions like the University of Edinburgh and the
Stanford Research Institute.[6] (Angelo, 2007, 41f.) Not surprisingly fiction also dealt with
artificial intelligence and its consequences in major motion pictures like “2001: Space
Odyssey” from 1968, where a computer character called HAL 9000 interacts with humans
and at some point departs from its program developing an own malicious mind. [6](Angelo,
2007, 44)
In the meantime science fiction had become reality looking at space missions by the
Americans and Russians. These numerous projects, too, are important steps in robotic history
because spacecraft’s were equipped with automation technologies that enabled them to fulfill
docking operations to give only one example. Also remotely controlled robot vehicles have
been part of many space missions to the moon. [6](Angelo, 2007, 44f.)
For the industrial sector work on robot arms was continued intensively. In 1963 the Rancho
Arm was supposed to support handicapped people. With six joints the arm was designed to be
as flexible as a human arm. The already mentioned Marvin Minsky developed the octopuslike Tentcle Arm five years later and in 1969 the Stanford Research Institute introduced the
first electrically powered, computer-controlled arm, the Stanford Arm. Only one year later the
institute designed Shakey, the first robot that was controlled by artificial intelligence. The
small box on wheels used a memory to navigate and to solve problems.[12] (Robotworx,
2009)
During the 1970’s robot arms have been improved continuously. In 1973 the T3 (The
Tomorrow Tool) built by Richard Hohn for the Cincinatti Milacron Corporation was the first
minicomputer-controlled industrial robot that was comercially available. A year later David
Silver created the Silver Arm, which used feedback from touch and pressure sensores while
assembling small parts. Also in 1974 the developer of the Stanford Arm, Professor
Scheinmann, re-designed his robot arm for industrial applications and founded Vicarm Inc. to
market it. In a next step Vicarm incorporated a microcomputer into their robot design, which
might be one of the reasons for Unimation to acquire the company in 1977. The accumulated
know-how of both companies resulted in the creation of PUMA (Programmable Universal
Machine for Asembly) – a robot that quickly became the standard for commercial robotics
and is still used by research laboratories. [12](Robotworx, 2009, [6] Angelo, 2007, 46)
19
Fig. 12: Vision guided Multiarm Robot, FANUC Robot 1995, Japan.
After the advances of the last decade a lot of new robot companies were founded during the
1980’s. The robots produced from this growth were used in more and more fields of life.
After a partial core meltdown at the Three Mil Island Nuclear Generating Station in Dauphin
Country, Pennsylvania in 1979, for instance, robots have been used from 1983 onwards to
work on the contaminated site. In 1984 the Terregator was designed to follow roads and map
mine fields, which made the vehicle the first autonomous outdoor navigation robot. 1985 the
first autonomous digging machine was introduced. REX sensed and planned to excavate
without damaging gas pipes using a hypersonic air knife to erode the soil around pipes.
[12](Robotworx, 2009).
Robot development went on like this. In practically every field of life researches worked on
robotic solutions from which people would benefit some time. It was not only the industrial
sector that used robots in production facilities. Almost everywhere robots became a part of
work as soon as certain tasks were too difficult or dangerous for humans. Additionally
engineers made use of modern technologies in order to realize their visions of robots that
looked and acted like life creatures. Honda’s humanoid robot ASIMO and Sony’s dog robot
AIBO are only two examples for such projects.
Rolf Dieter Schraft, former manager of the Fraunhofer-Institute for Manufacturing
Engineering and Automation IPA, recognized the rapid development of robotics during the
last decades. In his opinion the industrial production sector will be saturated with robots soon,
at least in the western industrial countries, which will lead to new markets for robotics.
According to Schraft service robots will have a considerable growth potential in the future.
[7](Schraft, 2000, 2).
1.7. CONCLUSIONS
From ancient mechanism to the modern area robots, human try to improve processes where
human labor is limited. In history with simple designs and energy sources out of the nature,
20
today with many different artificial power sources and combinations of many height
technology disciplines.
The analysis of the descriptions of the historic development of robotics in the literature is very
much related to the background of the authors. The philosophical approach and the technical
approach bring different conclusions.
At present authors in robot literature focus more on the technical and economical approaches.
This is exact the mirror image of the targets in the modern robot development.
1.8. NEW RESULT, SCIENTIFIC RESULTS
New results: The development of technical manipulating systems in the past, in the present
and in future shows differences in the time periods:
- Different motivations for development.
o In ancient period: Motivation to simplify daily operations
o In the medieval period: Scientific studies; Technical toys; Economical
motivations in terms of rationalization.
o In the new era or early industrial period: Scientific studies; Feasibility studies,
Economical motivations in terms of rationalization.
o Modern era and future period: Economical motivations in terms of
rationalization, quality assurance and mass production.
- Different target groups.
o In ancient period: Devices required for everybody (consumer)
o In the medieval period: Scientists; Upper- class- customers; Industry
o In the new era or early industrial period: Scientists; Industry
o Modern era and future period: Industry; Consumer
In the scientific investigation of relationship from robotics and education, are the developingmotivation and the target groups, key elements to work out exploitable results.
Publications:
[19] SZABOLCSI Róbert – MIES Gerald 2009: Robotics in Nutshell – Past and Future,
CD-ROM Proceedings of the VIth International Conference „New Challenges in the
Field of Military Sciences, ISBN 978-963-87706-4-6, 18-19 November 2009,
Budapest, Hungary
[31]
MIES, Gerald 2010, MILITARY ROBOTS OF THE PRESENT AND THE FUTURE;
http://www.zmne.hu/aarms/docs/Volume9/Issue1/html/12.html
AARMS Vol. 9, No. 1 (2010) 125–137 Received: May 31, 2010
21
2. DEVELOPMENT OF ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATION IN INDUSTRY
The technical development of the industrial robots is one of the most dynamic development
fields of the mechanical engineering. The universal applicability and the permanent
development of new robot models, size classes and load categories, is the base for this
dynamics. The article describes the evolution of the industrial robots being with the first
economic applications in the sixties. As in the case of all industry products, the economic
efficiently of capital goods is the main accelerating element for the growth. It is the target to
describe the different motivations for investment in robot technologies in different decades.
At this time, the first applications of robots took place in the lines of business, where human
reach their limits with their physical abilities. The motivation was quality and reproducibility
for the use of robots in the eighties. There were about 150 robot manufacturers worldwide at
that time. The robot became an industrial series product in the nineties. The efficiency of the
application and the price of the robot were responsible for the growing robot population.
Since the turn of the millennium, the technical further development vision- systems for
example, opens up many new fields of applications. Today approximately 10 robot supplier
worldwide can follow the speed of the markets [30].
2.1. INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE OVERVIEW
Military Robots and Industrial Robot have a common history. Many developments at the
beginning of last century come out of the military laboratories. At this time the governments
invest big parts of their budgets in military research and development.
The first independent operating systems where used in military applications. Robots in
military are still “special machines”, build in small lots and very dedicated for their
application. Only drones and minesweeping robots are used in larger lots in military
applications.
Today industrial robots are mass production machines. The mechanical types, drives,
controller, sensors and applications are the key items in their development.
Robots in Industry are categorized into four main mechanical robot- types:
The linear-type- robot, the scara-type robot, the articulated-type-robot and the delta-typerobot. In the statistic of the International Federation of Robotic (IFR Statistic), the Delta-type
robot is not counted because this design is a relative new product on the market.
Starting with the hydraulic Robots the mechanical units where dominated by the dimensions
of the hydraulic cylinders and drives. These robots were heavy, slow and very expensive
compared with machines today.
With the progress further development on the servo drives, most robots change their
mechanical units into the articulated design. The IFR data’s shows, that the market share of
articulated - and delta robots growths fast.
Scara robots and linear robot are also using servo motors, but because of their disadvantage
in case of degrees of freedom, is the market share of this designs shrinking.
The revolution in the electronic Industry is another indicator for development in robotics. In
the eighties, robot became slower if the demand for periphery communication increased,
because the capacity of the CPU could not handle motion control and communication.
Current generation of robot controllers is based on dual-core architectures. Motion control
and data communications are kept separate and processing is distributed over a pair of CPUs.
Sensors, for example, let robots see, feel and let robots work safety in their environment.
22
Development of sensors did not influence the robot development direct, but the sensor
technologies opens robotics a huge application market.
Application also defines development of robots. In the eighties the automotive industry
demands approximately 90% of the robots market, most of them for spot-welding
applications. So Robot supplier build robot with focus on point to point movements and
payload of 70 to 90Kg.
Later follows arc-welding and handling applications outside the car manufacturer with
different requests. With this, the robot design starts to diversify up to the various models
today.
The literature provided many publications to the development of robotics and automation in
industry. In case of military robots, the literature is more orientated to robotized weapon
systems and not so much to the common history of industrial and military robots.[19]
Szabolcsi [9] pay attention to this subjects in different congresses [20] lectures [21] and
conferences [22].
Appleton [28], introduced in his book „Industrieroboter Anwendungen“ design, workenvelopes and ranges for application, special the difference between serial and parallel
structures for industrial robots.
Spur [29] focused in his publication more on the description of the first controller
architecture, programing and data exchange.
The development of motors brought the change from hydraulic to electrical driven robots.
Today the investigations conducted at the ISW Institute, Stuttgart, showed that direct drives
are, in principle, feasible in the case of industrial robots, as was documented in, for example,
the dissertation entitled “Regulation of high-speed, electric-servomotor, direct drives on
manufacturing systems” described by Fahrbach [6].
Sensor technology was one of the topics on the 3rd International Symposium on Industrial
Robotics, Zürich 1973 [23]. Although the first “robot equipped with a pattern-recognition
system” was exhibited. They name it “optical orientation system” at this time instead of
vision systems today. The industrial use of vision systems has a history of 25 years. In 1994
to the 25th “International Symposium on Industrial Robotics” in Hannover [24], the 3D
vision systems where on the agenda.
Trade magazines publish the spectacular success stories of robotics. For example, robotic
cells that automatically handle rose cuttings have been developed in Holland (Fig. 4.). Foitzik
[25] and Wickham [26] describe application in the flour and food industry.
2.2. INDUSTRIAL AND MILITARY APPLICATIONS OF
AUTOMATION AND ROBOTICS
The history of industrial robots goes back just to fifty years. The first robots appeared on the
industrial landscape in the late 1960s. They are now essential features of every flexible,
efficient, manufacturing operation. Although key branches of industry, such as automotive
industry, are, of course, already highly automated, the general manufacturing industry, and
particularly small, and medium-sized companies, are increasingly taking advantage of the
flexible manufacturing operations and opportunities for automation that robots provide.
23
Automation was spawned by mass production. Segregating manufacturing operations, into
sequences of procedures may be regarded as the initial step in that direction. That turned
attention toward those procedures that needed the flexibility that only humans could provide
and those that could be automated. That advance was accompanied by the employment of
robots in, for example, foundries, or for easing the handling of heavy loads (Fig. 13.)
Fig 13. Industrial robot, Japan, 1973.
A highly significant technological advance was the transition from hydraulic robots to robots
driven by electric motors. Both types of drives remained in use in parallel for quite a while.
The final generation of hydraulic robots was used in spray-painting applications, where
hydraulic drives were retained for years after they had all but disappeared elsewhere, in order
to prevent explosions. Lissmac’s 1990s attempt to revive hydraulic drives on robots designed
to handle heavy payloads failed. Its project, which was aimed at developing a robot capable
of handling 1,000 kg payloads for the construction industry, never got beyond the prototype
stage.
The development of servomotors that could be finely regulated and controlled to suit the
loads involved meant that the ideal choice of drive system for industrial robots had finally
been found. However, direct drives, i.e., servomotors coupled to gear transmissions, became
standard equipment on Scara and delta robots only. The forces and accelerations that occur in
the case of industrial robots equipped with articulated-arm kinematics continue to necessitate
employment of precision transmissions. Investigations conducted at the ISW-Institute,
Stuttgart, showed that direct drives are, in principle, feasible in the case of industrial robots,
as was documented in, for example, the dissertation entitled “Regulation of high-speed,
electric-servomotor, direct drives on manufacturing systems” [27]. However, the robotweight/payload ratios of large robots rapidly reach the point where their implementation on
large robots becomes impractical.
24
A noteworthy recent advance is the employment of a pair of servomotors on each axis in
order to improve robot dynamics, an approach that is currently being exploited in two
application areas. On high-payload robots (Fanuc M-2000iA and Kuka KR1000), dualservomotor drives yield faster accelerations and decelerations. The first robot equipped with
dual-servomotor technology to be employed in industrial applications was the Fanuc
M-430iA, a robot that was specially developed for use in the food-processing industry and
designed to yield very high pick rates. A special feature of its drive system was the use of a
pair of high-torque, high-speed servomotors to drive each of its three major axes, whose
motions were controlled by a “dual-drive, tandem, torque controller” that allowed attaining
very high translation rates on the Fanuc M-430iA/2F. When tested employing a standardized
test cycle involving raising its arm 25 mm, driving its arm 300 mm horizontally, and then
lowering its arm 25 mm, the latter robot managed 120 cycles per minute for a payload
of 1 kg, and 100 cycles per minute for a payload of 2 kg.
2.3. ROBOT CONTROLLERS
The best performers of the current generation of robot controllers are based on dual-core
architectures. In order to highly accurately control robot gripper trajectories and positioning
and be able to process sensor signals and other system data in real time, motion control and
data communications are kept separate and processing is distributed over a pair of CPUs,
which allows a single controller to run systems having as many as 72 axes. Closer
collaborations among machinery manufacturers and robot manufacturers have led to
increasing numbers of automated manufacturing cells being offered as standard solutions.
As long as CNC-controllers and robot controllers had differing interfaces and had to be
custom tailored to suit particular applications, various solutions, such as employing robots on
machine tools, remained proprietary solutions. Nevertheless, for years, systems houses
managed to unite both worlds. However, a common control platform is preferred, both by
systems houses, since it eases system integration, and by users, since it simplifies dealing
with all aspects of system operation. Being able to employ the same type of controller
architecture at all of one’s manufacturing plants is a matter of great concern, particularly to
multinational companies, who want to, and need to, employ the same machinery at all of
their manufacturing plants.
Systems for controlling simple handling axes or controlling, for example, delta robots, are
increasingly being incorporated into the controllers of modern machinery and manufacturing
systems. Motional axes are being directly addressed by machinery controllers, particularly in
the case of packaging systems that need to very rapidly accomplish picking tasks.
Meanwhile, manufacturers of PLCs and CNC-controllers (B & R, Rockwell) are attempting
to gain footholds in the world of robot controllers and have begun offering common control
platforms for simple tasks involving just a few handling axes.
25
2.4. ROBOT SENSORS
Even the first robots were equipped with sensors, since otherwise freely programmable
trajectories would have been unrealizable. Whenever sensors are mentioned in conjunction
with robotics, the sensors involved are usually ones that allow accomplishing a given task,
such as a joining task, in principle, as well as flexibly and gently.
In the early day of robotics, robots did not guide themselves by referencing their positions to
their surroundings. In the beginning, position sensors were their sole means for determining
their positions. However, as the tasks assigned to them became more complex, more sensors
and different types of sensors became necessary for their operation. Major development
efforts are currently being devoted to three types of sensors for robotic applications: vision
sensors, force-torque sensors, and all sorts of sensors that either affect safety or allow
operating robots in tandem.
Image processing, which was a topic for discussion as long ago as the early 1970s and has
meanwhile become a separate field of automation technology, currently plays a dominant
role. The major task of robotic vision systems is finding and recognizing locations where
parts are to be picked up, i.e., positioning and orienting robots’ grippers (Fig. 14.)
Fig. 14. Kamera-Greifer, 1973.
Although the first “robot equipped with a pattern-recognition system” was exhibited at the
International Symposium on Industrial Robotics (ISIR) held in Zurich in 1973 [23], it was
not until 2000 that significant numbers of vision systems were in use on robotic systems.
Meanwhile, robots, for example, delta robots, from all manufacturers are now normally
supplied with image-processing systems. Vision systems for use in robotics, such as Fanuc’s
iRVision, that have been integrated into robot controllers as standard equipment have been
available for several years, which eliminates the additional wiring and coordination of vision
systems and robot controllers required by stand-alone systems.
Sensors, particularly image-processing sensors, play a particularly decisive role in the
configuration of hybrid workstations. Absolutely reliable monitoring systems are essential
whenever humans and robots have to share the same workspace. An early development in
that area was emergency-shutdown systems, which were initially electromechanically
actuated. When the first software-actuated emergency-shutdown systems appeared, both
electromechanically actuated and software-actuated systems had to be operated in parallel
during a transition period. Software features, such as “high-sensitivity collision detection,”
26
are now standard equipment on industrial robots, and not just those employed in the
automotive industry.
2.5. STANDARD- AND ADWANCED ROBOT APPLICATIONS
Robots’ initial conquests were the automobile-manufacturing plants of all industrialized
countries. Automation degrees far in excess of 90 % are typical in bodywork fabrication [Fig.
15] and painting. Manufacturing facilities, such as Building 5.4 at Volkswagen’s Wolfsburg
plant, were outstanding examples of manufacturing automation back in the early 1990s. The
“rigid” robotic automation of those days has meanwhile developed into a system architecture
oriented around providing much higher degrees of flexibility. Manufacturing philosophies,
such as “just in time” or “just in sequence,” would be infeasible without the aid of flexible
robotic systems. Even at Volkswagen’s Dresden plant, where its up-market Phaeton models
are manufactured, certain procedures are automatically carried out. For example, spare-tire
wells are sealed employing a robotic procedure, windshields and windows are inserted by a
robot, and wheels are automatically installed.
[Fig.15] Opel, 1995.
Robot-employment schemes have developed along various lines. In Europe, highly integrated
manufacturing cells and lines, where robots have to accomplish highly complex tasks in
some cases, are preferred, while in Japan a distribution of tasks within robotic cells, where
robots are rarely fully utilized (run at their maximum speeds or called upon to carry their
maximum payloads) is usually the rule. Newer bodywork-manufacturing lines show that
smaller, slimmer robots are becoming more popular. That trend is being accelerated by the
development of lightweight spot-welding tongs that no longer require robots capable of
handling payloads of 210 kg and more to handle them and can be operated by “slimline”
versions with rated payloads of 80 kg to 100 kg. Manufacturing cells then take up less floor
space and manufacturing lines may be slimmed down.
How versatile the employment of robots can be in just about any branch of industry may be
illustrated by citing several remarkable examples. Until a few years ago, certain types of
robotic applications were unrealizable. Either the engineering prerequisites could not yet be
27
met, or employment of robots would have been uneconomical. Three examples will illustrate
the advances that have meanwhile made them realizable.
Thanks to automation, high-wage countries have been able to hang onto some labor-intensive
processes and even recover some they had previously lost to low-wage countries. For
example, robotic cells that automatically handle rose cuttings have been developed in
Holland [25] [Fig. 16] That job was formerly performed manually, but cuttings were being
flown back and forth between several “production facilities.” The logistics operations
involved were extensive, expensive, and energetically inefficient. Furthermore, cuttings
frequently became damaged, so discard rates were high.
[Fig. 16] Rose Cutter Robot.
A Dutch systems house developed and built a robotic solution. Four robots per system handle
cuttings, supported by pneumatic-servo transport systems and vision systems. In principle,
branches are gauged by the vision systems and their locations on trunks determined. Robots
then sever them from trunks and plant the resultant cuttings.
That example demonstrates that automated systems are currently able to recognize and
handle even items having irregular contours. The flexibilities of modern articulated-arm
robots help make such applications feasible. However, without high-performance controllers
and the associated sensors such systems could hardly be economically employed in actual
practice.
Remaining competitive was one reason for a Spanish company to automate its processing
chain for heads of lettuce [26], from the harvesting stage to shipment [Fig. 17]. Its system,
which is automated by 68 robots, can process 550,000 heads of lettuce daily. The company
had two major reasons for automating the processes involved: it lacked the skilled personnel
required and manual processing entailed large variations in workforce utilization. In any
event, the company wanted to be able to supply its customers with lettuce of uniformly, high
quality. The criteria for this particular solution were close coordination’s of the operations of
the system’s image-processing systems to those of its robotic and transport systems.
28
[Fig.17] Lettuce handling with Robots
Every one of the system’s robots handles the same tasks. Sensors provide that heads of
lettuce that have been placed on conveyors will be transported to the next, free, trimming
station, where an image-processing and gauging system determines their diameter and
weight. Heads that fail to meet prescribed criteria are sorted out. The image-processing
system also locates their heart and suitably controls the system’s next robot, which packs the
heads of lettuce using a special pneumatic gripper. The system has integrated into it other
stations equipped with image-processing systems that provide for continuous, inline, quality
control. This automated solution cut labor costs by 80 %. Furthermore, analyses have shown
that the rejection rate declined from 20 % to 5 %.
New development in special robot gripping allowed the automation of processes that would
have been out of reach just a few years before. The development of new theories and
applications together with advanced sensors and controllers made possible of achieving such
tasks. One interesting industrial application is handling highly flexible open-celled
polyurethane foams (such as used in car seats and upholstery). These foams are produced in
large quantities so their automation is essential. However their mechanical behavior makes
the automation of their handling very difficult, because their soft nature makes them deform
under the grasping force [130]. In order just to design their robotic grasping and handling
new models from continuum mechanics had to be utilized (see in details: [138].). To handle
these foams special robot grippers need to be used. The conventional impactive grippers are
less useful, because of their tendency to deform the handled material excessively. Vacuum
grippers are useful for handling large batches of seat foams less accurately but
reliably[131],[136] and ingressive grippers are better suited for the task when handling foams
with different geometries [133], [135]. With these non-commercial grippers all these
problematic tasks can be automated that could be only done by hand previously [130].
29
Automation approaches involving dual-arm robots and multi-arm robotic stations would
appear to be similar at first glance. Although dual-arm robots mimic human work habits, it is
multi-arm robotic stations, which represent solutions for use on very efficient and flexible
systems that have managed to penetrate industrial manufacturing operations. Even though
systems incorporating as many as eight robots interfaced to a single controller have been
introduced, robotic cells equipped with at most three robots are what are being employed in
actual practice. Peripheral axes, such as carousels or conveyor belts, may be readily
interfaced to robot controllers. Incorporating more robots into such cells can lead to
confusion and loss of control.
Of a fundamentally different nature are systems based on controller solutions or software
solutions. Software packages, such as “RobotLink,” represent intermediary stages that have
proven their worth in, for example, automobile manufacturing operations in Japan and the
USA.
In the course of robot development, the idea of having robots equipped with a pair of arms
handle tasks in much the same manner as humans has periodically led to the appearance of
dual-arm robots. However, neither dual-arm Scara robots nor dual-articulated-arm robots
have met with much success in actual practice to date. They have largely served Japanese
manufacturers as test systems, even in cases where they, like Fanuc’s dual-arm LR Mate,
have been productively employed. The latter dual-arm robot was split down the middle and
either half was capable of performing assembly tasks on its own, operating as a five-axis
robot. Its manufacturer, Fanuc Robotics, assembled five-axis and six-axis versions of its
smallest robot model using such a dual-arm LR Mate robot back in the early 1990s [Fig.12] .
Numerous of its features, such as a dedicated image-processing system and various sensors,
such as force-torque sensors, were tested in actual practice and boosted the degree of
automation in that part of Fanuc’s manufacturing operations to around 90 %.
Such dual-arm robots might well be regarded as precursors of the collaboration models
currently under discussion. Even though the definition of “collaboration model” is not
interpreted the same way everywhere, it normally implies a collaboration of humans and
robots in a common workspace [Fig. 19]. In the simplest case, a worker places an item on a
robotic cell’s transfer station and the robot reaches into the workspace reserved for humans to
pick it up. The aim of such collaboration models is maximizing flexibility and optimally
combining human capabilities with the opportunities offered by robots.
An interesting medical application of dual arm were researched, when the rehabilitation of
spastic patients were exercised with robots. These motions could only be done by a trained
physiotherapist with years of practice, previously. The aim is to teach the two robots as if
they were the arms of the physiotherapist to move the limb of the patient according to the
most appropriate exercise. These motions can be calibrated and customized for each patient.
The only problem is to have the patient willingly to undergo this procedure. In order to make
the cell much safer special spring-loaded safety devices were designed between the robot
attachment surface and the patient‘s arm [137].
30
[Fig. 19] Robot Collaboration. FANUC Multiarm System 2006
2.6. CONCLUSIONS
Development of robotics and automation in industry seams as a logic process like in other
fields of technical products, if the view is from the present back to the past. But if the view is
from the past in to the future, the expected evolution of robotics in history is very different to
the state of the art today.
This is not a unique characteristic for robotic, this is the result of many parameter who
influence this Industry.
Everybody understands the challenge of estimation into the future in the fields of mobile
phones or Personal Computers. Nobody estimated in the sixties, those 50 years later, every
Smartphone has more processing power than the shuttle in the Apollo 11 mission, who brings
the first human to the moon.
Estimation into the future for industrial goods is even more complex, special in the field of
robotics. Here is the most constant part the mathematic and the technical mechanics.
The robotic is defeated by a huge number of influence- parameters.
Important are the development in electronics, for controller and drives, as well as the
development of new materials, new sensor techniques and software.
But also additional variable can influence the tendency of robot development. Quality
demand of the industry, energy prices in future, shrinking of human population ore other
societal reasons.
With the enlargement of the timeframe for the forecast also enlarge the number of influence
variable. Forecasting the next five years is may be possible with the assumption of today’s
knowledge.
If the forecast of robot development should go up to ten or twenty years, the process of
estimation needs to combine different disciplines for the evaluation. Industrial, technical and
societal influences have to be analyzed.
For robot developer and for robot user requirements will change and need new models for
education. This is the background for the title of the PhD thesis:
“Robotics in 2030 – A new understanding of the relationship of the robotics and education”
31
2.7. NEW RESULT, SCIENTIFIC RESULTS
New results:
o The robot changed their status from a special machine to the status as a technical serial
commodity.
o In the last 50 years of industrial usage and development, the field of application of
robots has virtually no more limitations.
o With this, changed in the robotic market the need of specialists from the develop
engineer to the engineer for applications. The three examples (Chapter I Section 2.5.)
illustrate the challenge to identify a robot application to a specific task.
In the scientific investigation of relationship from robotics and education, is the correct status
allocation of robotics a core issue for future decisions in education.
Publications:
[30] Mies, Gerald. 2010, “Robotics 2010, Development of Robotics and Automation in
Industry”;http://www.mfk.unideb.hu/userdir/dmk/docs/20102/10_2_05.pdf
CHAPTER II.
MILITARY - AND INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS
1. MILITARY ROBOTS OF THE PRESENT AND THE FUTURE
1.1. INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE OVERVIEW
The military is unquestionably the first user of new technologies and developments, in
technique, and is also, very often, the booster for new developments, when it becomes
necessary to invent new technologies for military systems. Many basic technologies, which
were used in the military for the first time, have become part of the industrial robot today.
However, the definition of military robotics and industrial robotics is still very different. The
military has specific, robotized equipment, whereas, in industrial terms, the robot is more of
an intelligent, flexible, mass production machine. In the future, the use of industrial robots
for military applications will become ever more possible. Price and development of the
technical abilities of the modern robot will increase the interest of military users. In the
following article, the author will indicate that the motivation for the use of robots, within the
military and within industry, is the replacement of humans. The reasons for this replacement
are, as follows: quality, cost and humanization; however, using a different approach in each
field, of course [31].
Both industrial and military robots share a common history, which began centuries ago. The
use of automatic devices was first recognized at the end of the 19 th Century. There are hardly
32
any books detailing the history of military robots in particular, but the topic is mentioned in
standard books on robotics, such as the work of [6] Angelo or [33] Siciliano and Kathib in ,
for instance. In [34] Williamson, too, gives a historical overview on technology – in this case
the early years of spacecraft technology. [35] Ványa László does the same dealing with the
history of unmanned ground vehicles.
A more detailed view on military robotic devices is given by [36] Singer in, “Wired for
War”. His book deals with the history, as well as with the various applications within the
military context and with the question of how warfare has been and will be influenced by the
use of robots. Similarly, in [37] Lele makes suggestions on how technology can be used in
military contexts. Further outlooks on such robotic usages are given by [38] Young, [39]
Lundberg, [40] Edwards, [41] Weisbin and [42] Buxbaum. Each of them considers robots as
essential supporting devices of the future. [43] Chen’s work in and [44] Giachetti represent a
closer look on what robots will be able to do.
Still, there are works that deal with the conflict between machines on the one hand and moral
aspects on the other. In [45] Wallach explains the importance of teaching robots right from
wrong. [46] Kovács László and [47] Cooper understand this as one of the major challenges,
as well.
Literature can only conclude from recent projects what the future of military robots will look
like. It is quite clear that the military has their own understanding of robots, since they do not
discuss humanoids, but, instead, devices that support military actions by performing certain
tasks automatically. [36] Singer explores momentary research and gives his conclusions on
what military robots will be like in the future.
In [48] Szabolcsi gave methodology of the derivation of the critical parameters of the human
operators manipulating spatial motion of UAVs and in [49] a complex stochastic
mathematical model of the disturbances affecting aircraft motion is derived and proposed for
further applications. In [19] Szabolcsi and Mies give a short brief upon history and future of
modern robotics.
1.2. FIRST MILITARY EQUIPMENT WITH ROBOT RELATED ABILITIES
During the 19th and 20th Centuries, the evolution of robots has proven to be useful in many
fields of life. It was only a question of time until the military would use robotic applications
for their own purposes. Advances in computer programming enabled engineers to build
constructions that could fulfill things, which were not previously possible.
In his chapter on the history of robots, [36] Singer notes that, Thomas A. Edison and Nikola
Tesla were the first to think about military applications. Both men worked on the
transmission of electricity and experimented with radio-control devices. Tesla was the one
who presented his idea of remote-controlled torpedoes to the U.S. military, but he was
rejected. [36]
During World War I, the development of robotic devices continued. An “electric dog”, more
or less a converted tricycle, was built to carry supplies. The vehicle was able to follow a light
source, which can be seen as a precursor to laser control.
33
[Fig.20] Electric Dog by B.F. Meissner; www.davidszondy.com
In 1917, a “land torpedo” was patented. The vehicle was supposed to carry one thousand
pounds of explosives behind enemy lines. Caterpillar Tractors built a prototype just before
the war ended. The first prototypes of missiles, equipped with preset gyroscopes and
barometers, were also built around this time. The so-called [Fig.21]“Kettering bugs” could
fly a distance of fifty miles before destroying their target. However, these devices did not
have any major effect to the fighting.
[Fig.21] Kettering bug 1917
Germany was the first nation to use remote controlled weapons on a wider scale. On sea, they
defended their lines with unmanned boats, carrying explosives. The system included Tesla’s
radio control, as an operator steered the ships, via sea planes, which delivered electricity
through a cable to the boat. In World War II, Germany again pioneered in the use of robotic
devices; their land torpedo,[Fig.22] “Goliath”, is one of the best known. Its size was
comparable to a go-kart and was controlled by remote into enemy tanks and bunkers,
carrying 132 pounds of explosives.
34
[Fig.22] Goliath: World’s First Anti-Tank Robot
One of the major and most effective German inventions was the V-2 rocket, a ballistic
missile used during World War II. The rocket was not only the first aircraft to reach space,
but the flight was automatically controlled by the LEV-3 guidance system. A horizontal and
a vertical gyroscope, connected to the steering vanes, were responsible for lateral
stabilization and a gyroscopic accelerometer cut off the engine, with the help of an
electrolytic integrator. The human operators only had to adjust the azimuth for the rocket and
set up the timing for the engine cut-off. Thus, the V2 was able to fly on a certain ballistic
curve that reached the target. [34]
[Fig.23] German V-2 Ballistic Missile 1944
35
The V-2 rocket and its successors, the intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), completely
changed the nature of modern strategic warfare. From now on, missiles had to be
programmed and shot and reached the target automatically without further human interaction.
When those powerful missiles were equipped with nuclear weapons, both the United States
and the Soviet Union were primarily interested in avoiding strategic nuclear warfare.
All of these military devices might have been first attempts that were not terribly effective,
but they have certainly been innovations that served as a basis for further developments.
Today, missiles of various kinds, for example torpedoes and tele-operated devices, belong to
the military, as the soldiers do.
1.3. MILITARY ROBOTS ACCORDING TO THE DEFINITION OF ‘ROBOTICS’
Military robots are related to very different applications and differ to those robots that are
used for industrial production, in a way that they do not produce things, but have to interact
in warfare. The concept, however, is the same; a device has to fulfill some tasks
automatically to qualify as a robot. In military terms, technology focuses on the control of
missiles and vehicles in order to have unmanned devices that are either tele-operated or that
find their way, automatically guided by laser beams or GPS satellites. Today, military robots
can be divided into several categories: guided missiles; military spacecraft; unmanned aerial
vehicles (UAV); unmanned ground vehicles (UGV); remotely operated vehicles (ROV); and
autonomous underwater vehicles (AUV). [6]
The intercontinental ballistic missiles, mentioned earlier, are only one very large type of
rocket with guidance systems. In fact, various combat situations require different types,
depending on where the missiles are launched, for what kind of aims they are determined and
on how they fly – in a ballistic curve or self-propelled. Combat pilots, for example, fire selfpropelled air-to-air missiles at their opponents’ fighter jets, but air-to-surface missiles at
hostile targets on the ground. Surface-to-surface missiles can either be self-propelled or
ballistic, like the mentioned intercontinental missiles. [6]
During the first Gulf War, such missiles were described as “smart bombs”. Singer explains
that two systems were used; laser-guided missiles and so-called cruise missiles, which find
their way by comparing the terrain with digital photographs of it. From this point on, soldiers
were able to control such missiles from a safe distance by programming them before the
take-off. Due to exact surveillance and precise laser-marks, the precision of the missiles was
remarkably good. [36]
36
[Fig. 24] Cruise missile “Tomahawk” 1990
In space, the military is present with satellites, which are basically robotic spacecraft’s that
orbit around the earth. First installed during the 1960s, the satellites have become crucial
instruments for modern warfare and, even for the preservation of a stable, globalized
civilization. Such satellites perform a wide range of military purposes, reaching from missile
surveillance over navigation to intelligence gathering, which makes them similar to a military
scout that gets all the necessary information for further military actions. The military, of
course, needs this information in order to plan actions and feed other robots. Surveillance by
satellites is necessary work for strategic warfare. These spacecraft’s, for example, give early
warnings about ballistic attacks, which initiate fast reactions and detect nuclear detonations,
which is helpful when it comes to nuclear test ban treaties. They are also able to monitor the
weather at tactical or regional level. [6]
The rise of the Global Positioning System (GPS) [Fig.24], during the 1990s, has made
satellites even more valuable. Navigating via GPS is the most precise way to find a
destination. This technology can now be combined with unmanned vehicles, giving soldiers
the opportunity to control their rockets, aircrafts, or ground vehicles from all over the world.
(Fig.25] GPS satellite network, 1994
Unmanned vehicles are important instruments in modern warfare. The most widely spread,
the so-called drones, are predominantly used for surveillance. These small aircrafts can take
37
pictures of a region without being recognized as large planes. If an enemy shoots the drone
down, the loss is relatively small and, more importantly, does not harm any humans. Both
drones and unmanned ground vehicles can also be used as weapons. Soldiers can control the
bomb and gun carrying devices via satellite and do fear human casualties on their own side.
[Fig.26] Predator drone, Remote piloted aircraft, UAV, 1995
After the first few years of experimenting and development, today seems to be the ‘golden
age’ of military robots. However, experts are recognizing potential developments and view
today’s robots as a Ford Model T, as this is only one of the first stages of robot development
within the military. [36] More and more devices perform certain tasks automatically and are,
in this way, able to substitute humans. If soldiers cannot be substituted completely, they
move their position behind a computer from which their robot will be controlled.
1.4. FUTURE MILITARY ROBOTS
The military will continue developing robots for their own purposes and will, therefore, find
new purposes over and over again. Technological advances enable the developers to build
new systems for more tasks. Unmanned ground vehicles will be of great value for such
projects because they are already capable of managing several tasks: “A converted Humvee
has already driven around military bases at an average of thirty-five miles per hour and never
veered from its planned route by more than eight inches.” [36] This capability would permit
to send unmanned supply convoys, again minimizing human losses.
Another way to make military work safer is to send ground robots as pioneers instead of
soldiers. Cameras transmit images of the scene, in order to give the soldiers an expectation of
what lies ahead. This is not really new, but in the future, those robots will carry weapons and
be able to perform a wider set of battlefield roles [36].
38
[Fig.27] Packbot Explorer, Photo courtesy U.S. Army
One such robot already exists as a prototype. As small as a golf cart, the robot is controlled
by a PlayStation video game controller or software plug-ins, which allows semi-automatic
and fully autonomous modes. The fully equipped robot carries a machine gun, rockets, and
non-lethal weapons. In total, the Gladiator will cost 400,000 Dollar. [36]
Ground robots are not only required to perform combat roles, as they will also be used as
support for medics, who have one of the most dangerous jobs on a battlefield. The
“Bloodhound” is one such robot; an improved version of the ‘packbot’, which is able to find
wounded soldiers and conduct simple treatments, such as checking his vital functions and
giving morphine, for instance. Specially designed medbots will also be on board of
evacuation vehicles and drag wounded soldiers into safety. [36]
Research on medical robots will be one of the major issues in future, as they are supposed to
perform complex surgeries inside the armored vehicle. The Defense Advanced Research
Projects Agency (DARPA), “has already spent more than $12 million on such a remote
trauma pod” [36] in order to reduce the risk for soldiers. This is based on existing robotic
surgical systems and thus, the odds are good that it will be used in ten to fifteen years time.
Similarly to ground robots, the military also develops robotic devices for use at sea –
unmanned surface vessels (USV)[Fig.28], as well as unmanned underground vehicles
(UUV). Conditions at sea are more challenging than at land, but the US Navy invests great
amounts in the development of robotic boats and underground boats that will work as scouts,
communicating with a mother-ship or as highly effective weapons.
39
[Fig.28] Spartan Scout, USV(Unmanned Surface Vessels)
The developments on ground and at sea will also be continued at air level. Boeing already
presented its X-45 a few years ago. This project, to build an unmanned combat air vehicle
(UCAV) [Fig.29], was cancelled by the US Air Force in 2006, obviously because the drone
was too good and came too soon. The Air Force had already spent $28 billion on the
development of the fighter jets F-22 and F-35. However, it is said that the project has not
been given up completely. [36]
[Fig. 29] Boeing X-45 unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV)
The question of the direction in which robotic development might head in the future still
remains. Experts believe that space could be a new battlefield. If a conflict zone develops in
space, it has to be organized with unmanned devices, as it would be far too expensive to send
humans, along with the necessary supplies and oxygen. “It costs roughly $9,100 a pound to
launch anything into space with a Space Shuttle.” [36] Thus, the first unmanned vehicles for
the use in space are already in development. One of these “space ships” is Boeing’s X-37.
40
[Fig.30] Boeing X-37
No matter what robotic developments will enter military work, they all have a common goal:
to minimize human losses on their side and increase efficiency. Technological advances will
always enable engineers to build new devices and, provided that they are creative enough,
there will be a lot of innovations within the sector of the military robot.
1.5. CONCLUSIONS
History has shown that the military makes use of every innovation that has the potential to
support military work. In ancient times, there were innovations, such as metalworking or gun
powder; in modern times, robotic devices have become popular. If one product proves to be
useful, development of it will be pushed.
Robotics’ experiences search for a push right now. The military has recognized that
automatic devices are far more efficient than the use of human soldiers, as there is a reduced
risk of mistakes and the devices can also be equipped with powerful weapons. The military
has recognized another advantage, too: more and more robots can do dangerous work that
was previously undertaken by humans. The use of robots for such tasks makes a soldier’s
work much more secure; it can even saves lives.
Certainly, most nations try to avoid wars and battles but in order to achieve peace in conflict
zones, a well prepared military is crucial. The realistic concept that the military still performs
life-threatening tasks is reason enough to develop robots that will support soldiers on their
missions.
1.6. NEW RESULT, SCIENTIFIC RESULTS
New results:
o In the past military robots, or robotized military equipment, were important parts of
warfare but not decisive for the outcome of a war.
o With the global changed security situation, military robots, in particular the unmanned
aerial vehicles (UAV) became an important military system. This is the first essential
breakthrough in the history of military robots.
In the scientific investigation to prepare the future projection of the robot population in 2030,
the military robots became an important quantity as major part of “service robots for
41
professional use” (according to UNECE (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe)
and IFR (International Robot Federation) definition).
Publications:
[31] Mies, Gerald 2010, “Military Robots of Present and Future”;
AARMS Vol. 9, No. 1 (2010) 125–137, May 31, 2010;
http://www.zmne.hu/aarms/docs/Volume9/Issue1/html/12.html
[50]
Mies, Gerald 2010,”Terror Threat from using accessible Industrial, Technical
Products” AARMS Vol. 9, No. 1 (2010) 107–116;
http://www.zmne.hu/aarms/docs/Volume9/Issue1/html/10.html
2. TERROR THREAT FROM USING ACCESSIBLE, INDUSTRIAL, TECHNICAL
PRODUCTS
2.1. INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE OVERVIEW
During the last few decades, the terror threat has become a crucial item for police and the
national defense forces around the world. The range of threat, which terrorists use today,
begins with military weapons, such as grenade and firearms and ends with civilian products,
like pyrotechnic materials or passenger aircrafts. The author will express how the misuse of
technical products is becoming an ever increasing problem for the national and international
defense forces, out of their established work scope. Using examples of possible threats and
the introduction of problems with the actual export control policy, the article should show the
complexity of this issue. A global and efficient tool, specifically for export control, has not
yet been installed. Almost everyone, if they have the money, can purchase any high-tech
products, worldwide, if they use a third party. Numeric controls, high-end machine tools,
industrial robots and laser systems, are only a small proportion of these product families,
which are predestined for misuse. After a second resale, the suppliers of these products are
not able to control the trade routes and, therefore, have the risk that their products could
come into contact with criminal activity [50]
The terrorist attacks, 11th September 2001, have led to an ‘ongoing war on terror’, as it is
called in the media. Since then, terrorists have left their mark all over the world; many of
them as suicide bombers. Such attacks do not involve a lot of technology. However, in the
future, technology could also play a crucial role for terrorists.
P. W. Singer wrote a book, “Wired for War”, which discusses the ongoing technological
developments in warfare. In this book, he also discusses the potential misuse of such
technology, referring to drones and vehicles, loaded with explosives, for example. He also
mentions a possible change of mind on the terrorists’ side; using robots for attacks, which
used to be executed by humans, could be much more effective.
Published by the [51] German Federal Economy Office and export control (Bundesamt für
Wirtschaft und Ausfuhrkontrolle) is the basis for this work giving a complete overview on
42
regulations and controls of exports. The consequences of export control on the work of
global companies are dealt with in by [52] Müller and by [53] Weinland whereas [63] Wetter
writes about European Law regulating exports of dual-use goods. The influences of export
controls on international trade and global developments are picked out as central themes by
[54] Czinkota, [55] Atlas and Dando and [56] McAllister. In [64] McAllister gives a closer
look at the issue of security by analyzing the Russian security cooperation. In [36] Singer
gives examples of possibilities terrorists have by using accessible goods as well as [57]Zsolt
and László who work on the topic of internet- and cyber-terrorism. The terroristic potential
of modern technology is also dealt with by [58] Ott.
[19] Szabolcsi and Mies gave a short review of the history of robotics, and showed possible
ways and trends in evolution of robotics based on state-of-the-art technologies. [59]
Szabolcsi derived mathematical models for structured and unstructured parameter
uncertainties, and derived theirs stability boundaries and in [60] he showed implementation
of the robustness analysis theory for aircraft stability augmentation systems. UAVs being
controlled by human pilots have large interest in mathematical models of the human operator
applicable for analysis and design purposes. In [61] Szabolcsi derived SISO and MIMO
mathematical models for modeling human operator behavior. In [62] Szabolcsi deals with
UAV spatial motion identification problems.
This article gives an overview on terror threats that are caused by industrial, technical
products. The topic will be introduced with a chapter on export control, in order to explain
the problem of distributing industrial goods within a global context. Information on export
control in Germany is given by the ‘Bundesamt für Wirtschaft und Ausfuhrkontrolle’. The
Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (BAFA) is a superior federal authority,
subordinated to the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWi). The document
describes the international context of export controls and gives the reasons for restricting the
export of some goods.
2.2 EXPORT CONTROLS
Due to advances in technology, nations have to put a great deal of consideration into whether
certain industrial products could be misused by people. If this is possible, it is important to
control the sales of such products. In Germany, the Federal Office of Economics and Export
Control (BAFA) rules the export of goods based on the fact that, foreign trade is generally
free but might be restricted if the security interests of Europe and global peace are in danger.
With their work, BAFA also impedes that international relationships will be impaired
because of inappropriate trade.
BAFA gives several reasons for trade restriction. On the one hand there are different
embargos, which prohibit certain parts of trade with specific nations. Such embargos might
affect the distribution of weapons and armed industry goods, but can also limit sales of other
industrial goods to a number of countries. A total embargo, which would prohibit all foreign
trade actions with a country, does not currently exist.
Additionally, the European Union has enacted measures in order to fight terrorism. The result
is that certain people, groups, or organizations are not allowed to receive either financial or
economical resources, including direct and indirect shipping of goods to those named in the
respective lists. These prohibitions are valid for all people participating in these trades. Thus,
investigations do not only requires looking at the listed names, but at everyone involved.
43
The embargo mentioned here is only part of the control instruments. BAFA also compiled an
export control list, which is divided into several categories of goods: One section covers
weapons and equipment for military purposes; whilst another collects so-called ‘dual-use’
goods. These goods can be used for civil application or for the production of dangerous
equipment. Nuclear materials or equipment is also comprised in this section, as well as
chemicals, electronics and tooling machines, amongst others. Trading the goods named in
these lists requires special approvals from BAFA.
Even products that are not mentioned in the export control list could require special
permission before they are traded. This is the case if their use is somehow related to the
development, production, or maintenance of weapons, military equipment or illegally
exported, armed industry goods. The sole use of these goods for conventional armed
industries requires permission when the buyers are from countries named on the list of
nations. At the moment these are Cuba and Syria. Similarly, the use of goods in nuclear
industries must also be approved in specific countries, such as Algeria, India, Iran, Iraq,
Jordan, Libya, North Korea, Pakistan, and Syria.
The export controls are supposed to prevent hostile countries or terrorists from acquiring
goods that would enable them to threaten other nations, putting peace at risk. Such extensive
controls are necessary in order to limit the ways by which people can buy the respective
goods. It does not mean that it is impossible for the listed countries and persons to buy
industrial products, but it is made much more difficult, as it requires illegal actions. The other
side of the coin is obvious; the regulations complicate foreign trades for industrial
companies, as they must take an intensive look into the area and be prepared in critical trade
businesses. This is, of course, in the company’s own interest, since it must not be connected
with illegal activities. The question is, whether export controls, in the end, are a sufficient
instrument to prevent criminals from buying respective goods, as there will always be a black
market, on which criminals might find what they require.
2.3. MISUSE OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
Many examples have shown that new technologies can be used with both good and bad
intentions. For example, nuclear power plants produce a lot of energy, whilst the nuclear
bomb can do much damage. It is similar with chemical or biological advances and, naturally,
with industrial products, too. These examples are quite superficial, but they show that in
every innovation there is the potential for negative use.
2.3.1. PRIVATE ROBOT ENTHUSIASTS
The more accessible a product or technology, the easier it is to misuse. For this reason, the
issue requires special attention, especially those ‘dual-use’ goods mentioned above.
Differently to explosives or weapons, these could be bought legally, by almost anyone, if
there were no export control. In his work, “Wired for War”, [36] Singer refers to Chris
Anderson, editor at ‘Wired’ magazine and host of www.diydrones.com, who states that,
drones, capable of text messaging and GPS control, can be built for less than 1,000 Dollar.
Singer concludes, “One group’s hobby might be another’s weapon.” [36] (Singer pp 270)
On a larger scale, it is also possible to build complex devices without any secret technology.
The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) hosts an annual race, the
44
DARPA Grand Challenge, in which universities and private companies build unmanned,
automatic vehicles (UAV), which have to master a special racecourse autonomously. In
2005, ‘Team Gray’ proved that this is possible with comparable simple technological and
financial resources. Eric Gray, one of the owners of Gray Insurance, decided, together with
his brother, to take part in the DARPA Grand Challenge [Fig.31]. Without any special skills,
only with the help of the head of their company’s IT department, they succeeded in building
a fully-functioning car. They bought components that had been described in an article and
gained some knowledge in video game programming, as they were convinced that,
“programming a robot car to drive through the real-world course had many parallels with
navigating an animated monster through a virtual world.” Their Ford Escape Hybrid SUV
(Sport Utility Vehicle), codename ‘Kat 5’, was packed with all the components and was able
to impress the opponents. The car finished the racecourse, coming in fourth out of 195
contestants. This success becomes even more impressive with the relatively low costs; ‘Team
Gray’ spent only 650,000 Dollar on this project.
[Fig.31] Kat-5 at mile 8 in the 2005 DARPA Grand Challenge
2.3.2. POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
Private-built robot systems, like those above, are not necessarily a threat. However, teleoperated devices and drones, as well as cars and boats, have great potential to be misused.
For criminals and terrorists, it only takes the combination of technology with explosives in
order to produce powerful weapons. Experts have already recognized the danger that
terrorists might move on, using robots instead of human beings, for their attacks. One such
expert, Robert Finkelstein, says, “There may be groups in which not everyone wants to seek
the seventy-two virgins right now.”
The mentioned drones and vehicles are only a few examples of tele-operated devices. They
could be discovered as soon as they are controlled to an aim. Terrorists would be better to
think of solutions that cannot be seen so easily. A gun, for example, could be mounted on a
robot that is connected to a tele-operating system, or even a simple vision system. If this
device is hidden near to an airport, terrorists could aim at incoming or outgoing planes,
without being close-by themselves. The system could even be fed with flight numbers,
controlled by a radar system, and shoot automatically. To realize systems like this today, it
needs a customary industrial robot and a skilled programmer.
The various ways to misuse robotics are only one problem. For the prosecutors, another
problem arises with terrorist attacks through the use of robots. If one attack fails, “captured
machines don’t provide as good intelligence as a captured terrorist; if you torture a robot with
45
a waterboard, only sparks come out”. [36](Singer, 269) This argumentation might be very
American one, but it quite clearly shows the fear of an increasing number of attacks, if
terrorists multiply their activities by using robots. In such a case, the terrorists may act – in
their eyes – unfaithfully, but the damage for the victims is the same, if not bigger. “You can
be a wimp, but still be a terrorist” [36](Singer, 269) is the short summary of a security
analyst.
Western countries must think about the availability of modern technology, especially within
terroristic contexts, as 2004 shows, for example. French troops were deployed to the Ivory
Coast in order to help police with a cease-fire between the government and local rebels. Not
expecting much resistance in one of the poorest countries of the world, they were too
surprised to see their base observed by two Israeli-made Aerostar drones [Fig.32].
[Fig.32] Israeli-made Aerostar drone
However, this surveillance was only the first part of the action. Russian-made Sukhoi jet
fighters came in a few hours later and bombed the camp, which resulted in the deaths of nine
French soldiers and one U.S. aid worker. “It turned out that the tiny country had hired the
services of an Israeli private military firm to run its intelligence-gathering and a group of exRed Army Belarusian pilots to become their air force” [36](Singer, 268). Israel, being wellequipped, has made similar experiences when they fought against Lebanon in the summer of
2006. Not having lost a war until then, the young state was confronted with a well-organized
Hezbollah. The opponents were also in possession of drones and used them to carry
explosives to Israeli goals. Additionally, Hezbollah was well prepared for Israeli high-tech
weapons.
2.3.3. NO TECHNOLOGY ADVANTAGE ANYMORE
Such examples are proof that it is not a Western privilege any longer to be in possession of
the latest technology. If an organization or nation should wish to have robot devices, they
will get them, as long as they are able to pay for it. As the example of the Ivory Coast has
shown, robot devices do not have to start off as weapons. Surveillance, along with the flow
of information, is important for every party in a conflict. Thus, information technology is a
significant instrument. Terrorist groups, like al-Qaeda, use the internet in order to spread
their cause and find new recruits for their network. Even with questions of surveillance, the
internet offers, in some cases, enough information: In 2006, al-Qaeda used Google Earth to
locate a British army base outside of Basra, Iraq [Fig.33], “The footage was so detailed that
they were able to sight their mortars to target the soft-skinned tents in the base, rather than
harder-to-damage buildings.” [36](Singer, 271). Back then al-Qaeda found recent pictures of
46
the army base, as shown on the left picture below. Looking for this site today reveals satellite
footage from 2002, when there was no army base.
[Fig.33]Left: Basra 2004/05, right: Basra 2002 (used today) (www.googleearth.com)
The development of information technology has led to the situation whereby almost everyone
has access to the internet and can get any information that he needs. It is a network that
cannot be controlled completely.
2.3.4. ROBOT DECISIONS
Military robots already exist in various forms. Most of them are still operated by humans – at
least to a certain extent. The devices only qualify as robots, if they perform at least some
tasks automatically. The number of such tasks will probably increase, as robot development
is an ongoing process. This, however, can also be dangerous, if robot manufacturers and
programmers are not careful. Robots only perform those actions that they are ordered to. In
the end, they cannot decide alone, whether they are attacking the correct target. This still has
to be decided by human operators.
Recent news has shown that robot failures can also be evoked by the enemy. In this particular
example, from summer 2009, Iraqi rebels used very simple and cheap software to hack into
American drones. They did not get control over the unmanned aircraft, but they were able to
capture the pictures the drones were taking. Thus, they were well informed about U.S.
military plans. One expert criticized that the security systems of these drones are worse than
those installed in your cash card when you get money from an ATM. There has to be
solutions, which minimize the risk of accidental robot attacks, or the penetration by computer
hackers. In war situations, again, surveillance plays a major role in this context. First of all
the military has to find the targets and mark them respectively. An additional step, which
could ensure the safety of friends and civilians, would be to mark them in some way as
‘friends’. The robots will be able to recognize such marks and act in the previously
programmed way.
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2.4. CONCLUSION
The question of whether technical, industrial goods are generally dangerous and could be a
threat is a difficult one to answer. Of course, there are such products that might be used to
build robot devices, but the simplest technical devices belong to these products. Years ago,
computers or mobile phones were used by a handful of people; today they are part of our
everyday life and, with the necessary know-how and enough criminal energy, potentially
dangerous.
Export controls are only one way to make the buying of such products more difficult.
However, it is hard to imagine that such controls are really sufficient. The possibility that
someone might misuse an industrial product has to be kept in mind when the product is
developed. Similarly to computer software, industrial products, too, might be secured with
activation codes, as is already done in some cases. The question remains, if such measures
are always possible and if they are sufficient.
From 2008, a Japanese machine tool manufacturer equipped all their machines with an
integrated movement sensor. After moving the machine tool, the machine controller
demanded a password (code) from the operator in order to start the machine. Only the
manufacturer has the authority to provide this code, after the operator has given the data
details of location and use of the machine.
From the view of export control, this manufacturer’s work is in an exemplary manner.
However, the customer of the machine tool views it as a disadvantage, as it increases the
costs.
Here, it is the approach of the legislators to implement efficient rules. As technology is
permanently developing, there will always be new products that can be used for both good
and bad actions. Due to the faster distribution of technology today, there will not be major
advantages on one or the other side. The whole development will merely become faster, as
one side always tries to remain ahead of the other. In the end, they might both have access to
latest technology.
All of these observations show that the human factor will be of major significance, no matter
how advanced robots are. Threats only arise if humans put criminal energy into the use of
robots, or if they make mistakes whilst programming them. As important the control of
industrial goods might be the control of who is using them for what is just as crucial.
2.5. NEW RESULT, SCIENTIFIC RESULTS
New results:
o In the light of terror threat by accessible, technical, industrial product, are the security
standard in case of export control far behind the current technical potentials.
Governmental rules are focused on trade regulations and not on technical security
solutions like movement- sensors, GPS- positioning or password- protection. Today`s
industrial products with CNC- technology are able to be modified to prevent the use of
unauthorized operating company.
48
In the scientific investigation of the global growth of the robotic market, is security an
important item for an unrestricted distribution of high- technology components.
Publications:
[50]
Mies, Gerald 2010,”Terror Threat from using accessible Industrial, Technical
Products” AARMS Vol. 9, No. 1 (2010) 107–116;
http://www.zmne.hu/aarms/docs/Volume9/Issue1/html/10.html
CHAPTER III.
BASIC ROBOT TECHNOLOGIES AND THEIR TEACHING IN
EDUCATION
1. MECHANICS AND MATHEMATICS IN ROBOTS, ROBOT-CONTROLS
DEVELOPMENT AND UES OF ROBOTS IN EDUCATION
1.1. INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE OVERVIEW
The mechanics and mathematics in development of robots and robot-controls are not often
the items which are standing in the centre of discussions, talking about robots.
Robotics is part of machine building industry and most of the robot- specialists today
graduate with a classical engineer education. The aim of engineering trainings is predominant
the qualification of people to design and build complex machines.
With this study plans, the Universities qualified the experts who founded the success- story
of the industrial revolution over the past century.
In education for mechanical engineers and electrical engineer on university’s and technical
colleges are the mathematics and mechanics the key- subjects in the basic study period of
academic training for engineers. Representative for the university education, in this academic
work, have been selected two of the largest European university´s for mechanical: The
RWTH- Aachen and The TUM- München. In their curriculum plan [139][140]becomes
evident how large mathematics and mechanics take place in the basic study period of
Universities. This basic structure has not much changed in the education of engineers in the
last hundred years.
Factory and production planning with robots are the skills what industry demands mostly
from their engineer’s in times of fast growing automation.
Nevertheless the mechanics and mathematics are the basic tools in further development of
robots and robot- controls. This article will give an overview of the principles of these keydisciplines in robot development [65].
49
For most engineers, robots are tools which are used for particular tasks. At the same time,
knowledge of the mechanics, the kinematic design and the mathematical principles
underlying the mechanical design rarely play a major role.
[29][2]Spur shows however, that an essential feature in layout and development of
production processes, the further development of automation is.
However, development engineers employed by the robot manufacturers must have a
profound knowledge, both to develop and improve standard robots and to check practical
requirements regarding the need for new kinematics. Delta robots have therefore not been
developed from established articulated arm mechanics, even though the mathematical
methods, for example the calculation of kinematic chains, are based on the same
considerations.
Formal models are used to accurately describe models, kinematics and working processes.
However, the knowledge obtained in practice is generally informal. In order to make
"informal" knowledge of robots calculable, to be able to develop mechanical systems, and
ultimately to channel the knowledge into a program, the informal knowledge must be
transformed into formal knowledge. This can be carried out geometrically, analytically or
numerically, as [66] Stark demonstrates in the transformation of informal knowledge into
software: "Formal, mathematical models are therefore the basis of programming."
In order to adjust the robot's controllers, a kinematic and dynamic mathematical model of the
robot (include the robot's physical characteristics) are needed.
The kinematics is obtained by the handle of homogeneous transformation matrix applying the
Denavit Hartenverg method.
There is a variety of technical literature which deals with the subject industrial robots.
The most frequent publications describe the development of the first robots with its
kinematic forms, the bases of the technical mechanics and their mathematical basis. The
book "Robot-Technika" [67] from Bela Kulcsár is an example for this.
There is not so much literature which explicitly deals with the technical mechanics and
mathematics for the calculation of robots. In consideration of the mathematics and
mechanics, there is no different in calculation of robots or machinery with elements in
movement.
The technical literature almost attends to the mechanical description and the mathematical
one description of robots together.
[29][2]Spur focused in his publication more on the description of the first controller
architecture, programing and data exchange. In his thesis, gives the further development of
control processes in production, the future trend of automation machines.
The arrangement of the arms and joints determine the kinematic structure of a robot. In
general, discrimination is made between two groups or classes; robots with serial kinematics
and robots with parallel kinematics. [68] Husty and Karger define the basic term of the
topological structure of kinematic chains. [69] Weber describes these groups: "A serial robot
consists of a series of arm sections which are connected to one another by joints (axes). The
effector can be regarded as the last arm section."
[70] Gfrerrer simplified the mechanical structure in his analysis of serial robots with only
revolute joints, because this is the most used configuration in the practice.
According to [71] Wiest industrial robots can be divided into serial, parallel or hybrid
structures depending on the way in which the elements are arranged.
[66] Stark focused on the mathematic description started from the degrees of freedom of a
point in the plane.
[72] Canfield and [73] Hommel introduce the mathematical models which described two
coordinate systems and the geometric relationship between the two.
50
[74] Anton and [75] Rathgeber described the homogeneous matrix, described as a DenavitHartenberg matrix and identify the Denavit-Hartenberg convention as the most widely
established form of kinematic representation.
[76] Snyder focused more on the description of control theories and shows one possibility
with the physical approach "Robot/Power Supply/Control".
1.1.2. PRINCIPLES OF MECHANICS IN DEVELOPMENT OF ROBOTS
A mathematical model (according [72] Canfield) is not different from the illustration
between input parameter ("input space or joint space") and output parameter ("tool space") of
the manipulator. The arrangement of the arms and joints determine the kinematic structure of
a robot. In general, discrimination is made between two groups or classes; robots with serial
kinematics and robots with parallel kinematics. [69] Weber describes these groups: "A serial
robot consists of a series of arm sections which are connected to one another by joints (axes).
The effector can be regarded as the last arm section."
Contact between the robot and the working environment is normally made by means of an
effector, whether this is a gripper or a welding torch. The characteristic point is the Tool
Centre Point (TCP).
At the same time, the spatial position of an object, including the effector for example, is
described by the definition of two coordinate systems and the geometric relationship between
the two [73] Hommel:
1. The object-specific device characterises the object to be handled and is moved with it; the
term gear system ("Gang system") is therefore often used in geometry. The origin of the
coordinates and the direction of the axes are suitably defined by the user according to the
object geometry and the task in hand, and can be oriented towards the centre of gravity, axes
of symmetry or certain characteristic points, edges or surfaces on the object.
2. The reference coordinate system describes the system surrounding the objects; as this
system is generally fixed (at least with regard to the relative movement of the objects
associated with it); it is also described in geometry as a halt system ("Rast-system").
The origin of the coordinates and the direction of the axes can be chosen according to the
task in hand or to the environment (therefore often referred to as world coordinate system in
the literature), and can be defined by manufacturing equipment, handling equipment or
buildings for example.
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[Fig.34] Definition of joint coordinate systems, according to Hommel
Industrial robots are generally designed in the form of an open kinematic chain. An open
kinematic chain is understood to mean a system of links (Σ 0, Σ1, … Σn-1) which can all move
in or parallel to a plane ε, wherein each Σi is connected to at least one Σ by means of a joint
gij. If n links are present, the kinematic chain is called an n-link chain. [68] Husty and
Karger also define the basic term of the topological structure of kinematic chains:
"Discrimination can be made between three different basic types: open kinematic chains (tree
structure), closed kinematic chains (kinematic loops) and partially closed kinematic chains.
At first an analysis of serial robots is loudly enough (according [70] Gfrerrer with only
revolute joints, since this is the most used configuration in the practice.
Starting from a base frame, the mechanical design of a robot in the form of an open chain is
characterised by the arrangement of motion axes (joints) and axis-connecting elements
(links) [71] Wiest. Industrial robots can be divided into serial, parallel or hybrid structures
depending on the way in which the elements are arranged. The mathematical modelling of
the kinematics describes the steady-state movement characteristics of the industrial robot
without taking the initiating forces into account. As a rule, a rigid multi-body system with
chain structure is used for this purpose.
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[Fig.35] Approximation algorithms for the modified inverse kinematics, according Wiest
Each joint of the kinematic chain is assigned its own coordinate system which is fixed with
respect to the body. The transformation between two sequential coordinate systems is
described by a so-called frame. The mathematical considerations are addressed in more detail
later on.
However, a real robot cannot be fully described by means of a simple, idealised model.
According to [71] Wiest, a better prediction of the positioning behaviour can only be
achieved using extended models. Such an extended model must take into account physical
and phenomenological characteristics. Deviations result mainly from manufacturing
tolerances and due to non-geometrical characteristics such as the resilience of a robot
structure.
[Fig.36] Transformation Tool coordinates → „World“ coordinates (according: lecture
University Duisburg-Essen)
1.1.3. PRINCIPLES OF MATHEMATICS IN DEVELOPMENT OF ROBOTS
Formal, mathematical models are the basis of programming. As a three-dimensional entity,
robot mathematics assumes basic functions of representational and analytical geometry. The
correct description of degrees of freedom is elementary in robot engineering. From a
mathematical point of view, they are parameters of an element or system. [66][8] Stark
defines this as follows: "Each degree of freedom can be varied independently of the others."
While a point in the plane has two degrees of freedom, in space a further degree of freedom
53
is added. With regard to possible rotations, there are further degrees of freedom when nonpunctual elements are concerned.
[Fig.37] Mathematical description of a straight line in a plane
The degree of freedom f is the number of possible independent movements (translations,
rotations) of an object with respect to a reference coordinate system. Accordingly, an object
which can move freely in space has a degree of freedom f=6, which - with a Cartesian
reference coordinate system - is made up of three possible translatory movements to define
the position and three possible rotational movements (rotations) to define the orientation. The
degree of freedom f=6 is not only a necessary but also a sufficient requirement for an object
to be able to assume any given position in the reference coordinate system.
The number of motion axes of a robot (gearbox degree of freedom F) is not to be equated to
the number of degrees of freedom.
Transformations are used for the mathematical modelling of a robot or a robot arm. Such a
transformation can be a rotation about an axis or a translation in the direction of an axis. To
carry out mathematical modelling, basically all that is required is to locate a coordinate
system in each joint of each arm. The individual transformations are transformed into each
another by means of transformations. The Denavit-Hartenberg convention (DH) is used to
implement this in a practical manner.
[Fig.38] The homogeneous matrix is described as a Denavit- Hartenberg matrix
54
The Denavit-Hartenberg convention is the most widely established form of kinematic
representation. It requires only four parameters to represent a frame in that the displacement
and rotation about the Y-axis are not taken into account. As a result, however, this restricts
the possible variations in the arrangement of the coordinate systems. Furthermore, this form
of representation has a singularity with approximately parallel, sequential joint axes. For
these reasons, the full, 6-dimensional parameter model has been chosen to describe frames in
this work. Here, the degrees of freedom are to be found at points at which they are also
located in reality, and singularities only occur with certain axis configurations and therefore
constitute exceptions.
When the individual coordinate systems are transformed into one another, attention must be
paid to locating the coordinate systems so that the number of transformations is as small as
possible. This at least simplifies the mathematical modelling, as shown for example by [67]
Kulcsár.
The DH convention defines only four transformations with which the individual coordinate
systems are to be transformed into one another.
- Rotation about the zn-1 axis with an angle θn
- Translation in the direction of the zn-1 axis with a length dn
- Translation in the direction of the χn axis with a length an
- Rotation about the χn axis with an angle αn.
An overall transformation from the base to the end effector, such as is used by
RATHGEBER [9] for example, can then be produced from the different sub-transformations:
There are fixed rules for defining coordinate systems. For simplicity, coordinate systems are
located so that as many Denavit-Hartenberg parameters as possible become zero.
When defining the transformations, it will be seen that the complexity is characterised
significantly by the rotations. An attempt should therefore be made to minimise the rotations
in the system when carrying out the modelling.
As [74][4] Anton shows, there are two problems when considering robot kinematics. In the
approach described as forward transformation ("direct kinematic problem"), the fixed-space
coordinates are calculated when calculating the position of the Tool Centre Point (TCP) from
the axis-specific joint coordinates. The inverse transformation ("inverse kinematic
transformation") is the inverse relationship. Here, the axis-specific joint coordinates are
determined from the position of the TCP.
Explicit solutions in closed form are available for solving the "inverse kinematic problem"
for standard kinematics such as articulated arm robots, SCARA or gantry robots, and fiveaxis NC machines with C and A-axis.
Formal, mathematical models are the starting point for programming.
One of the most important of these models is the homogeneous matrix (frame) concept. This
is of great importance in robotics. Amongst other things, it is used to represent coordinate
transformations, path points, directions in space, straight lines and planes. This type of linear
transformation is congruence mapping in the same direction. The determinants of such a
55
transformation matrix always have the value 1, which means that only translations and
rotations can be represented.
[Fig.39] Transformation matrixes for rotation and translatory movement
As a matrix multiplication is not commutative, the order in which the transformation matrices
are used is decisive. [66] Stark shows how a frame is transformed with respect to the
reference coordinate system: "In a multiplication, if a transformation matrix T is to the left of
a frame F, then F is transformed with respect to the reference coordinate system. This is then
referred to as an absolute transformation. In the other situation, where T is to the right of F,
this transformation is carried out with respect to the coordinate system which is defined by F.
This is referred to as a relative transformation.
1.1.4. PRINCIPLES OF MODERN AND POST-MODERN ROBOT- CONTROL
Elements of a robot system can be represented in different ways. [76] Snyder shows one
possibility with the physical approach "Robot/Power Supply/Control". A serial approach to
the control process sequence is sufficient for most applications. Today, required and also
normal working speeds have necessitated a parallel processing of information. Technically,
discrimination will be made between single-processor and multi-processor control systems.
In the discussion of the essential elements of a control theory [76] Snyder, consideration of a
single joint can initially be helpful and show the main functionalities. In doing so, rotational
joints and linear joints (thrust joints) can be considered in a similar way.
In proportional control, the basic principle is relatively simple, as [76] Snyder shows: "The
system is moved in the direction in which one error function is minimised. Such an error
function may be as follows: E = θd –θ, where θd is the required angular coordinate of the
joint and θ is the actual angular coordinate. If E = 0, the joint is in the required position.
56
Further parameters are added when designing the control concept. When doing so,
consideration must be given to whether relevant variables are implicitly or explicitly
controlled. In this context, [76] Snyder suggests using the term controlled variable, i.e. to use
the variable which is used explicitly to generate a control signal for example.
[Fig.40] Two possibilities of representing the track of a robot: The robot here has only rotary
joints. With linear joints θi, must be replaced by ri.
An important difference when designing and considering a control system is whether the path
of a movement is referred, i.e. planned and executed, relative to the robot coordinates or the
Cartesian world coordinates. As [66] STARK describes, the first method leads to timeoptimised movements. However, pinpoint accuracy is only guaranteed at the target point.
The advantage of this method is the rapid covering of distances in space. The second method
has an exact path, and therefore enables movements which correspond to the programmed
requirements to be executed over the whole path. With regard to the central role in the
calculation and execution of a robot movement, [66] STARK writes: "The interpolation
vector s(t) plays a central role. It represents the synchronised, time-controlled execution of all
sub-movements. The basis for its calculations is the path lengths of the sub-movements and
the specified speed and acceleration parameters."
1.2.1. ROBOT APPLICATIONS IN EDUCATION
The universities and the robot- associations realise the increasing demand for robot- experts
coming from industry. This is why, their launched many education programs for robotic at
universities and high schools, with the support of government and industry.
The target on high schools with education programs is to wake young people's interest in
technical and natural science studies. The reason for the leak of engineers and natural
scientists, special in the industrial countries, locate industry, associations and universities by
the leak of promotion of natural science in the high schools.
The decision for the subject area is already done before the students enter the university.
Industry and association have to promote engineering studies at students to the point of
decision.
GESAMTMETALL, is the federation of German employers’ associations in the metal and
electrical engineering (M+E) industries, support the next generation of engineers with their
campaign “ThinkIng” [141].
57
With the VDMA-campaign “Ingenieurausbildung” (VDMA campaign “engineer education”)
supports this association the engineering study programs at universities. At once drive the
VDMA a support campaign for high school teacher [142] to promote engineering studies.
With their internet platform "Karriere im Maschinenbau"(carrier in engineering) [143] targets
the VDMA students before there enter the university.
Robot supplier support high- schools and universities with their own campaigns. They install
robot- labs on universities to enable the institutes to offer robot or programing workshops for
students. The robot-labs are also often used for research and development of new software for
interfaces and programing.
The large universities with faculties of mechanical and electrical engineering offer study
courses of “automation and robotic” [139][140]. The universities teach, as described in
section 1.1.3., from the mathematical basics up to the design of robot- controls described in
section 1.1.4.. In the application- specific- education is the focus more on robot- programming
and simulation. A permanent increasing subject is the use of application- software and its
design.
Today is programming and simulation one of the largest cost-factors for robot solutions in
Industry. The high expenditure of time and thus great costs for programming and simulation is
one of the largest handicaps for the speed of growth with robot- applications. Only good
educated programmers with several years of experience are able to work with those offline
programming and simulation tools.
The education concepts of the robot supplier are customized to the requirements of use in
industry. The training contents are divided to meet the different requirements of end- users
and robot- specialists.
Beneath this follows a further sub classification in to user- groups. For example: Operator,
programmer, mechanical or electrical maintenance staff, system- design and special
application programmer.
The trainings concepts of robot supplier naturally focused on their own product range.
Target is the optimum usage of the supplier’s products to reach a high customer satisfaction.
The technical differences between different robot suppliers are not so significant;
nevertheless, the robots considerably distinguish from supplier to supplier in their designphilosophy and in their program- philosophy.
At the moment there still not exists a standardized programming language between the robot
suppliers worldwide.
Robot- Programming is therefore the most frequently used trainings- course, many times on
offline programming and simulation stations.
Beside the robot manufacturers and associations, institutions like NASA also force the robot
education [144]. Robots with special form of structures are used in the range of aerospace in
future to provide the unmanned space missions. Even the NASA offers special robot trainings
for young students to interest them early to the subject of robotics.
The core competence of the education for engineers of the robotics lies at the universities. The
construction or advancement of robots, requires special knowledge about the mathematical,
mechanical and control- engineering of robots, how described in paragraph from the 1.1.2 to
the 1.1.4. Chapters III.
58
Da die Robotik in den meisten Universitäten als Teil des Maschinenbaus gelehrt wird, bieten
wenige Lehranstalten weitergehende Qualifikationen zu diesem Thema an.
Es gibt aber auch Beispiele wie Universitäten das Thema Robotik als Schwerpunkt in ihren
Ausbildungsplänen hat.
1.2.1.1. THREE EXAMPLES FOR DIFFERENT UNIVERSITY ROBOTEDUCATIONS CONCEPTS
Robot education at Óbuda University, Budapest
The Óbuda University in Budapest runs their Robot- LAB as cooperation with the robot
supplier FANUC. The Robot- LAB was establishes at the Óbuda University in 2011 and
offers some interesting technical features.
The education can be done on real robots, one articulated 6-axis Robot and one parallel or
delta- type robot also as 6-axis machine. The two robots were chosen to be of different type
and kinematics in order for the students to have a wider knowledge of robots used in the
industry and be most conform to education and research.
Some of the topics include cooperating robots (in real and virtual environment), special force
sensing gripper adaptations, and many industrial applications. The LAB serves many
purposes. It provides a base for research and development for graduating, post graduate
students, doctoral students, researchers and professors.
The LAB is equipped with several offline programming and simulation work- places. The
systems are able to simulate all FANUC-robot-types.
The lab is already integrated into the university. The mechatronic BSc and MSc courses had
already had some theoretical background that is now complemented with the lab. The lab is
also integrated into the lessons of the mechanical engineering students. In their beginners year
the robots are only introduced in a previous lesson as an extra lab practice to encourage the
students to learn about robotics.
In other course such as Technical Managers courses and also for Safety Engineers the lab
serves as a part of their education. In the first case to have the students have a chance to peek
into the modern world of manufacturing and in the second case learn about the possibility of
hazards that robots may cause if not treated according to regulations.
Robot education at University of Pennsylvania:
The University of Pennsylvania runs since 1979 their GRASP Laboratory. The General
Robotics, Automation, Sensing and Perception (GRASP) Laboratory integrates computer
science, electrical engineering and mechanical engineering. GRASP offers an academic
curriculum Robotics Master of Science In Engineering (M.S.E.). “The graduates of the
interdisciplinary Master's in Robotics program are uniquely equipped to face research and
development challenges of the fast-growing robotics industry. The modern expert in robotics
and intelligent systems must be proficient in artificial intelligence, computer vision, control
systems, dynamics, machine learning, as well as the design, programming, and prototyping of
robotic systems”, so GRASP [145]. The compendium of the curriculum plan shows the
interdisciplinary approach: Artificial intelligence; Robot Design and Analysis; Control;
Perception; Technical Elective Courses; General Elective Courses; Mathematics; Computer
Science; Electrical Engineering; Mechanical Engineering and Special Robotics Course.
The concept of the University of Pennsylvania with their graduation as Master´s in Robotic
is possibly the first step into an interdisciplinary study path for Robotics.
59
Examples out of the past shows, those interdisciplinary studies were able to be very successful
in the industrial markets. One of them is the Economic-Engineer (Wirtschafts- Ingenieur).
This concept was founded end of the 70th as a combination of mechanical engineering and
economics studies and targets positions in industry with large technical and economical tasks.
Education on the Old Dominion University, Norfolk
At the Old Dominium University, Norfolk Virginia, USA, Prof Dr Ahmed K. Noor uses
newest media technologies for robot education [149]. Similar like the large automotive
supplier, with their virtual planning studios for product and production-line design, use the
University this technology in education. On the Research conference on Information
Technology, during the Seventh International PhD & DLA Symposium at University of Pécs,
Prof Noor described this method in his lecture: “Pathway to Future Virtual World
Technologies and their Role in Virtual Product Creation and Learning”. He introduces the
possibilities with existing virtual simulation systems in programming, designing and planning.
The advantages for human senses, special in the field of robotics with its three- dimension
movements, is easy comprehensible.
Noor expresses in his lecture: “The trend towards digital convergence of computing,
communication, mobile, robotic, and interactive technologies with knowledge-based
engineering, artificial general intelligence and other novel technologies is ushering a new era
– The Intelligence Era (the post information age).
The three-dimensional virtual worlds, which is the focus of the presentation, is one of the
technologies that has the potential of making significant transformational impact on learning,
product creation, and engineering practice in the new era.
The seamless integration of virtual and real worlds, along with other leading-edge
technologies, will lead to the development of future Cyber-Physical Ecosystems (New kind of
collaborative techno-social systems and infrastructures that bridge the cyber-world of
computing and communications with the physical world).
The Ecosystems will incorporate a fully integrated virtual / real production – information
landscape combining engineering systems into holistic prototypes, with real-time interaction
between multiple physical parameters of the product in the virtual world.”
1.3. CONCLUSIONS
The fundamental description of robots with the help of the mechanics and mathematics
essentially has not changed since the development of the first Industrial Robots beginning of
the 60th.
The methods for the calculation of a different robot kinematics are based on the same
mathematical approaches.
Only few robot kinematics has gained acceptance for the large series production of robots in
the industry. The most frequent style is, the articulated kinematic followed from the linear
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kinematic, the SCARA kinematic follows after that and last, the still relatively new style, the
delta kinematics.
So the diversity of the robot models does not depend at the kinematic style but at the
multitude of the robot types within a style. So the big robot manufacturers have alone up to
50 different models in their portfolio with articulated kinematics.
However, this means that every individual model must be calculated for themselves with
respect to the individual parameters like size, weights, accelerations and precision. Each
individual parameter influences into the calculation with a multitude of basic conditions.
Additional, the further development in the control engineering enabled, to operate the very
same robots under different operating modes.
The mechanical lay-out of identically designed robots, with the use of different drive
concepts, forces a new calculation of the machine, like for a completely new robot model.
These additional expenses for the calculation of modern robots are partly compensated for by
the use of modern software (e.g. MATLAB), which considerably reduce the time expenditure
for the calculations.
However, these examples make considerable that very high expense for every development
of a new robot is required, for the calculation of an each model variant. To put a new robot
model on the market, the manufacturers must therefore do very high capital investments and
investments in Manpower.
With the always increasing abilities and requirements off the robots, the costs for new
developments also increase. The shrinking numbers of robot manufacturers shows that more
and more companies cannot do such height investments for development. There were in the
eighties worldwide approx. 150 robot manufacturers. Today are approx. 20 manufactures left
that produces robots in larger quantities.
It has to be expected that with the development of new robot technologies, the expense for
the calculations will further increase.
New materials, like carbon, or new drive concepts, like direct or linear drives, moves the
physical limits of the robots further and enlarge the complexity of the calculations.
This trend of business in robotics generates very different tasks for education in universities.
The industry needs for development of robots engineers with expert knowledge in design and
calculation of complex machines. These engineers must be height educated in engineering
mechanics, electronics and in applied mathematics. New technical challenges like lightweight design, energy saving, sensor technologies will demand a strong increase of
engineering capacity for the developing of a new robot model in industry.
This sector will also be in future good provided from the classical engineering study courses
at the technical universities and colleges.
In contrast to the development of robots, needs the industry for the design of automation
solutions, engineers with expert knowledge of robot abilities and expert knowledge for the
intended use of robots. According the IFR (International Federation of Robotics) statistics
[129] is the worldwide operational stock of industrial robots in 2011 with 1.095.000 units on
an historical peak and with a further growth forecast in the upcoming years. The demand of
industry for developing engineers, becomes extended with a demand of engineers with
application know how.
Chapter V of this dissertation shows the data- projection up to the year 2030. In this
projection becomes clear that with the expected trends of growth in the worldwide
operational stock of industrial robots, the demand of specialized engineers increases too.
Industry, associations and universities have started different education programs to build
beside the classical education for developers, a new education channel with an emphasis on
61
applications technology. The examples with the different education concepts of universities
[section 1.2.1.1.] shows the versatility of the problem.
These different requirements from Industry create in future a great challenge for research and
teaching at universities.
1.4. NEW RESULT, SCIENTIFIC RESULTS
New results:
o The elementary basics for development engineers in robot education were in the past
and will be in future, the mathematics and mechanics, served by the universities.
o Application specific education is a constantly continue developing process dependent
from the state of the art in robot- programming and simulation, served mostly in the
training centers at the robot supplier.
o Beside basic development education and application specific education comes up the
marked demand for educated technicians with knowledge of robotized production
planning.
In the scientific work I have investigated that the curriculum- plans of universities and robot
supplier focus not on robotized production planning.
The prospective increase of the robot population with the prospective increase of different
robot models and robot application software will raise this demand substantially.
I developed the theory, that the future market success of robotics is direct related to the
amount of specialists who are qualified to design production lines out of the existing robot
portfolio, of these suppliers.
Publications:
[65] Mies, Gerald 2011, “Principles of Mechanics and Mathematics in Development of
Robots and Robot- Controls”;
http://portal.zmne.hu/download/bjkmk/bsz/bszemle2011/1/MiesG.pdf
[146] Mies, Gerald, 2011: New trend in Robotics, Delta- Robots moving forward,
Research conference on Information Technology
Seventh International PhD & DLA Symposium, University of Pécs, ISBN 978-9637298-46-2; Hungary 2011 24-25 October
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2. CONTROLS, SENSORIC AND SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT OF ROBOTS
AND AUTOMATION
2.1.
INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE OVERVIEW
The automation and robotics are two disciplines in Industry without clear borders in between.
Automation is strong related to the Factory Automation in Industry. Robotics is part of the
Factory automation, but robotics is also represented in other fields like military, medicine or
in the consumer section.
Development in industry, medicine and consumer section is driven from technical and
economic aspects. Decisions for development projects are mostly decisions direct related to
the financial payoff or the market strategies.
Many basic developments for robotics have had their roots in military. Development
decisions in military projects, dependents more on the military benefit and on the technical
feasibilities.
This article will give survey of the relation from controls-, sensoric- and software
development in automation and robotics. It illustrate the influence of technical market tends
on technical developments [77].
The basic principles of automation and robotics have not much changed in the last 50 years
when the first robots became developed. The mathematic background is even much older.
In the early years, between 1950 and 1985, the enhancement of controls was the moving
power for the evolution in automation and robotics. The big technological steps in the
electronic industry enable the manufacturer of automation equipment to come in leading
position in engineering. The controller, as the “brain” of the system, has had a key function
for further development. Powerful controls are the precondition for powerful motors,
intelligent sensors and fast software features.
The success of sensor systems starts later. Most sensor systems need fast and high capacity
controls for their calculation power. Sensors are the interface to the environment and
responsible for many feedback information’s to the automation system or to the robot.
Touch-sensors, force-sensors, vision-sensors or much kind of measuring-sensors enables the
automation industry the growth in various directions. For the automation branch, the sensor
development is one of the important door opener for new branches.
Is the controller the “brain” of a system, is the software the “brainpower” behind. With large
controller capacities and controller speeds, the opportunities of software, becomes unlimited.
Software is in automation and robotics the most important development section where the
suppliers put the focus on.
What for a gigantic tool software is, shows the success from Apple with their creation Apps
where everybody can program software. With this idea, Apple opens up a resource from
millions of software-developers for them.
With simulation-systems, offline-programming-systems and safety-networks, software
solutions take place also outside of the robot controller.
In the technical literature there are many papers about Controls, Sensoric and Software
Development. The most of these Books are scientific works, dealing with technical details
and basic developments like [76] Snyder and [78] Zivanovic, when they focused on the
description of control theories of automation and robots. [29] Spur focused in his publication
more on the description of the first controller architecture, programing and data exchange. In
his thesis, gives the further development of control processes in production, the future trend
63
of automation machines. In “Introduction to Robotics - Mechanics and Control” describes
[80] Craig the relationship of control theory, kinematics and Software.
These authors focus on the description of long term theories.
Literature, for Principles of Controls, Sensoric and Software Development of automation and
robots with an actual relevance, is more often found in technical and scientific magazines and
journals.
In the [81] VDI-Nachrichten April 1999 are presented KUKA´s PC based Robot controller as
one of the first controller type with this design. The magazine [82] “Automation” 1/2012
focused in there article on the size and design of modern robot controllers and introduces the
newest robot controller from DENSO, with a size of a sheet of paper.
[83] VDI-Nachrichten 5/2010 and [84] VDI-Nachrichten 9/2011 worked on the topic
lightweight technology and introduces robot solutions with composite materials to reduces
weight an increases speed and acceleration. They also discuss the impact from lightweight
design and energy efficiency. The use of composite materials on robots with high payload is
described in [85] MM 9/2006 with the introduction of KUKAs first palletizing robot with
carbon arm.
Starting in 9/2006 was it the magazine [86] MM who starts to comment the competition for
the crown of the heavy-weight champion, in payload, for robotics. At this time the challenge
was between 400 and 500kg payload. In May 2007 the news magazine [87]”Der Spiegel”
reported about the first robot with 1000kg payload. The follow up came in [88] MM 4/2009
with their first estimations above one tone payload.
[89] Hesse documented the history of sensor communication, using the thesis from [90][14]
Ruokangas, on the basis of an example with a ultrasonic sensor.
The automation-portal [91] “Elektrotechnik” described the fieldbus-communication of robots
and sensors via Profinet and EtherNet/IP. It is obvious that fieldbus communication will
enable the use of many sensor systems without the bottleneck in interface capacities.
On modern sensor development focuses several technical journals. [92] VDI-Nachrichten
4/2000 described assembling robots with force-sensors. [93] VDI- Nachrichten 5/2008
reported on sensor- systems which work as eyes, ears and nose for industrial robots.
In [94] VDI-Nachrichten 10/2011 the journalist H. Weiss, reports in from the IROSConference in San Francisco and describes the trend to open-source software in robotics
which accelerates the development speed for applications.
The topic safe-robots are found since 2003 in many different technical literatures. [95] VDINachrichten 5/2003 reports in from Japanese productions where they have a human-robotinteraction. The complexity of this subject is very close related to the national laws for
machinery safety regulations.
On a lower safety level is the interaction robot- robot what is named as multi-robot or multiarm systems. Here is the problem not so much the safety-law, than the technical solution.
[78] Zivanovic focused with his book “Multi-Arm Cooperating Robots: Dynamics and
Control“ to this items.
Since the dramatic grows of the energy costs in the last years, many technical publications
and articles deal with energy-efficiently of robots. The investment costs, in relation to energy
efficiently, are published in the magazine [96]”Produktion” No.19/2009.
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2.2. DESIGN OF ROBOT CONTROLS
At the beginning of the 90s robot controls were very similar. After this period manufacturers
soon began to develop individual principles of controls [81] [82] and implemented them into
their robots. However, the principles of power supply, main board, and servo-amplifier have
remained almost the same for most producers.
Fig. 1 shows one of the robot controls from the 90s[97] (FANUC Maintenance Handbook, S420 Controller with Side-Cabinet, 1990). It shows that because of the large size of the servo
amplifiers’ an additional controller- cabinet was necessary.
[Fig.41] FANUC S-420 Controller- Cabinet
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Fig. 42 shows a robot control from 2010. A 6-axis servo amplifier is implemented on
one circuit board [98] (FANUC Robotics Maintenance Handbook R-30iA, 2010).
[Fig.42] FANUC R-30iA Controller
At this time engineers were not able to make a estimations what equipment and
performance future markets would require from robots and their controls. So there
were different philosophies how to implement robots and controls into complex
manufacturing processes.
Producers of very specialized robots began at an early stage to manage several robot
arms via one central control (Fig. 43 Schubert Robot). In such cases mutual linking
plays a major role.
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[Fig.43]
Lachmann&Ring: Control scheme SCHUBERT Robot
Manufacturers of universal robots, namely the major producers of articulated and
SCARA robots, concentrate on decentralized solutions. Communication between
system control and robot control here works on IO-boards or BUS-systems.
Over the years many trends have taken over the lead and gained or loosed importance.
However, the following aspects that influenced the last 20 years in robot development
crystallized from this history:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Payload, speed and lightweight technology
Sensors and communication with external sensors
Software-Tools
Safety robots systems or “safe robot”
Multi-axis systems and cooperating robots
Energy efficient robots
2.3. PAYLOAD, SPEED AND LIGHTWEIGHT TECHNOLOGY
First generation industrial robots in the mid-eighties had a load range of 10 and 90 kg.
Those two values covered the major applications of robots. The 10 kg class was
developed for arc-welding. 90 kg robots focused on mass application in spot-welding
of vehicle parts in large car factories. From this both load types engineers developed
further robot classes.
67
Comparing load types of 2001 (13,316 robots p.a.) with 2008 (18,137 robots p.a.) it is
obvious (Fig. 44) that the share of robots with bigger loads has increased more than
smaller robots with less than 5 kg. Accumulation in the 10 to 90 kg class has
remained quite stable.
Comparison load types in % of articulated arm robots 2001 and 2008
[Fig.44] Statistical distribution Robot payload types: 2001 to 2008, G.Mies, 2012,
based on VDMA Statistic 2001, Germany; VDMA Statistic 2008, Germany
One consequence of the growing application range of robots was an increased
demand for higher load and speed. Processes got faster and the handled parts became
heavier. In order to realize larger loads drives had to be equipped with larger power
modules as well. Moving masses and the resulting increased moments of inertia got
problematic with a certain size; because robot drives have to change their moving
direction with almost every movement of the robot arms. Because of this larger and
faster robots are built with two drives per robot axis, which compensates this negative
influence of higher acceleration torque. This doubles the number of power modules in
robot controls. This resulted in more need for space and more need for heat removal.
Larger controller-side-cabinets were the solution here.
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2.4. SENSORS AND COMMUNICATION WITH EXTERNAL SENSORS
The use of external sensors has been a continuously growing trend in robotics over
years. Tactile sensors, electric sensors, optical sensors thermal sensors, and acoustic
sensors – all of these systems were helpful to feed the robot with information from its
environment. The costs for such systems at the beginnings of the 90s were, for
instance, at about 150,000 DM for an optical sensor following the movement. This
was 50 percent more than the costs for a robot.
Not only the costs limited the use of external sensors but also their capacity as well as
CPU speed. Robots that had to change much data with sensors got slower in their
movements. Thus manufacturers installed separate communication processors in the
following robot generations.
Another hardware deficit was the limited number of interfaces in the robot control
[90]. It was not before the introduction and acceptance of BUS systems and networks
until the use of sensor systems got simplified. Manufacturers with PC based controls
had clear advantages here, because most sensor systems were able to communicate
with personal computers [81].
Robot producers with their own CNC based controls had to develop new
communication software for each sensor type in order to enable the connection of
external sensors. Because of this, many robot manufacturers started to develop their
own sensors.
Today’s robot controls have additional communication boards for processing data
transfer to external sensors. Such independent boards ensure that no processor power
gets lost and that speed performance remains stable.
The “seeing robot” is a synonym for the success of sensor technologies in robotics
[93]. The market offers hundreds of different vision systems that enable the robot to
perceive its environment – to see. Sensors are the interface between the digital world
of simulation and offline programming systems and the real world in manufacturing.
2.5. SOFTWARE-TOOLS
Software tools do not have any major effects on the architecture of robot controls.
Only processor speed and memory space are directly related. This is one of the
reasons for the rapid development of software tools.
Intelligent software is an easy way to increase a robot’s performance without
changing the hardware. For some manufacturers this software even works as a
substitute for expensive external sensor systems. The “High Sensitive Collision
Detection” (HSCD) is one example for such a solution. The software monitors the
drives’ current permanently and detects possible collisions of the robot. Within
milliseconds the software initiates countermeasures, which impedes damages on the
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robot and its periphery. Fig. 47 shows flowcharts of a robot, recognizing a collision
with help of HSCD.
Fig. 45 shows a collision’s effect on a robot arm without HSCD. The energy of the
collision has to be resorbed by the robot mechanics. Damages in bearing, gear, grab
and periphery are highly probable.
[Fig. 45] Schematics of a robot arm without HSCD
[Fig. 46] Flowchart collision detection HSCD
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Fig. 47 shows the schematics of a robot arm with using HSCD
In the moment of a collision the control recognizes an increase of moment and drive
current Fig. 47. The affected drives will be changed with maximum torque to the
opposite direction immediately. A great deal of the kinetic energy is resorbed by the
drives which protects expensive grabs or parts of damages.
Software tools also make robots faster and more precise. Several manufacturers offer
programs that optimize braking and acceleration curves of the different robot axes,
which allow faster movements. Other programs consider production tolerances and
improve the mathematic model of the robots kinematics. Thus, the robot is able to
move on very precise paths. This feature is used mainly for robots in the field of
remote laser welding.
The software tools are processed in the electronic components of the robot control.
Memory, clock frequency, interfaces and BUS compatibility influence their
performance.
2.6. SAFETY ROBOTS SYSTEMS OR “SAFE ROBOT”
Robots of the security classes 3 and 4 are so-called “safe robots“ that are allowed for
operation in a common room with human workers [95]. This issue has been gaining
importance since the robot density (number of robots) per manufacturing plant has
increased more and more.
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There still are processes that cannot be fulfilled by robots economically or
technically. This leads to the situation that working areas have to be shared by robots
and humans [95]. Most industrial countries allow such interactions between human
workers and robots only under strict security standards. Respective installations have
to be constructed in a two-channeled way. Operators of such robots have to secure
each robot axis with two-channel cam rails. On the one hand this measure is very
expensive; on the other hand the robot kinematic is impeded by the large components.
Cam rail zone switch hardware
[Fig. 48] Axis 1 and 2 of a robot with secured two-channeled hardware way
Modern robots are equipped with so-called dual check safety systems. It includes
software as well as a hardware component and also ensures the required two
channels.
Dual Check Safety (DCS) hardware uses redundant magnetic contactors, I/Ochannels and CPUs. Mutual data and result checking are done by Main-CPU and
Communication-CPU, very similar to the redundant systems in airplanes. Same
external interface (E-Stop, fence, servo/MCC) are maintained as with the controller
hardware based system Fig.49.
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[Fig. 49] Flowchart of the Dual-Check-Safety-system.
The robot position and speed can be safely monitored and the robot can be safely
stopped to avoid hazards for operators and other persons Fig. 50.
[Fig.50] Safety Zone
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2.7. MULTI AXIS SYSTEMS AND COOPERATING ROBOTS
Multi axis systems have been reduced to 16 axes for a long time. This means that
robots with 6 robot axes and 10 external axes were sufficient to realize most industrial
applications [78].
External axes are servo drives of positioning systems, grabs, or tools. They, too, are
real robot axes that are able to move coordinately relatively to the tool center point
(TCP).
Again, manufacturers had different solutions to connect several robot arms.
[Fig.51] FANUC Robot-Link
In 2002 the first robot producers presented multi-arm-systems on the trade fairs.
These systems connected multiple robots via Ethernet. Emergency stop circles also
were connected, which enabled the robots to use a common work space. If one robot
stopped for some reason the other stopped, too. Thus, there was no danger of collision
of the machines. Because of the option to use a common tool center point (TCP) there
was also the possibility to program more than one robot in a single work space. The
overall advantage of multi-arm-systems was that a given space could be set up with
more robots, which has reduced production time per manufacturing unit and the costs
for work space.
As in the beginnings it was arc welding again that led to further developments,
because it was not possible anymore to solve projects with only 16 axes. In particular
tier 1- suppliers in the automotive sectors had to develop robot welding systems with
shorter cycle times. In the new welding units up to 40 controlled robot axes were
necessary. For the first time they used multi-arm-robots of which one single control
had to manage four robot arms and up to four positioning systems. These axes had to
be coordinated perfectly in order to achieve the required quality in the welded work
pieces.
Connecting robots via Ethernet is a capable solution for handling and spot welding
tasks. If, however, coordinated movements without time gaps are required, Ethernet
connections are inappropriate because of their slow transmission rate of the signals
(Communication delay of 4 robots control by Robot Link: 24msec). Arc welding is a
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good example for this. Today’s requirements in welding quality have the consequence
that robots and positioning systems have to move simultaneously and in a coordinated
way. These technical requirements can only be fulfilled by multi-arm-robots who
manage their whole movement with one CPU.
Complex welding units as they are often used by automotive suppliers can have up to
40 servo axes. The robot control, consequently, has to address these 40 axes without
any time delay. The controls are organized in a way that there is one main CPU and
four additional side controller-cabinets in which the power modules of the axes are
installed.
For several years arc welding was the only application that required multi-arm-robotsystems with more than 16 axes. This situation changed when robotics found their
way into the picking market.
Picking is the handling of mass production work pieces that leave the machines in
huge numbers on conveyor belts and have to be sorted, arranged or packed by robots.
Robot arms stand beside or hang above these conveyor belts and have the task to
manipulate the products in a given way at very fast speed. Working areas of the single
robots overlap and there is the necessity that the work pieces have to be assigned to
certain robot arms. These circumstances are the reason for using multi-armtechnology in this field of application. Multiple robot control by one controller.
[Fig. 52] FANUC Multi-Arm Robots
Such system requires only one controller and one Teach-Pendant. Servo drives of the
axes have to install in a side controller-cabinet.
Theoretically, multi-arm-systems can be programmed with the Teach-Pendant.
However, because of their complexity the programs are created offline with
computers that simulate the robot system. Today the Teach Pendant is used for fine
tuning only.
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2.8.
ENERGY EFFICIENT ROBOTS
In the automotive industry the use of robots has increased disproportionately over the
last decade. This development has been accelerated by the demands for cost
efficiency and quality requirements. Car producers build the same models on different
continents, namely in the regions where the cars are sold. Production methods and
quality standards, however, have to be the same on each continent.
In the past producing a new car model required 500 to 1,000 robots for one project –
depending on the production quantities of cars. Spot welding at the car body was the
main application.
Today several car-types produced on one production line and the manufacturers have
global production strategies. This led to the situation that robot applications are much
more wide-spread today. Spot welding is still the most common task, but robots are as
well used for transport, assembling, measuring, painting, loading and much more
duties. In such projects up to 5,000 robots are needed. Consequently, larger Car plants
can reach robot populations of several 10,000 machines. These numbers are
responsible for an increase in energy consumption, which makes this aspect an
important cost factor [96].
Basically, energy consumption of robots is influenced by the number and use of their
drives. This depends on the size of moved work pieces as well as their acceleration.
Technical considerations like the size of drives and amplifiers or intelligent stand-by
features are secondary. Thus, the operator has the biggest influence on the robots
energy consumption.
Choosing the right robots related primarily to the load the machine has to carry. A
correctly dimensioned robot is the basis for its efficient use. Even more important for
an acceptable consumption of energy is the way how robot movements are
programmed. Every car driver knows that too much acceleration and intense breaking
between two traffic lights leads to an increased mileage. Programming robots works
in a similar way. The stronger the machine has to work against physical mass inertia;
the higher will be its energy consumption.
Robot manufacturers react to these requirements by technical optimizations in
mechanics, drives and amplifiers, electronics, and software. Lightweight construction
is one of the keywords for this machine generation [83] [84]. Smaller and lighter
robots not only reduce energy consumption, but also higher process speeds as well as
reduced space requirements. Controls are equipped with smaller amplifiers that have
less current drain and do not need the same cooling as larger amplifiers. Braking
energy is recuperation and can be used again by the network.
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[Fig. 53] Energy flow analysis, FANUC Robot R2000 series
The Energy-Flow-Analysis in [Fig. 53] from Klaus Wagner, shows how large the part
of energy demand only for the robot motion is. The basic of this analysis is the robot
model FANUC R2000- series, payload 165-250Kg. This is worldwide the most used
robot-class.
73,1% of the whole electrical energy is used for the robot-drives-units. This
percentage distribution indicates very clear the optimization potential.
The other method is to optimize the motion of a given robot. A robot can perform a
given task on a given path using several different motion criteria that are produces
different results. The criteria can be formulated by target functions. The optimization
can be for the robot to move on the given path with the greatest velocity, thus giving a
minimal time trajectory (Time optimal trajectory planning), or to have a minimal
energy, or maximum manufacturing torque/force. All these criteria give different
results. In most cases the time optimal criterion is used, because this is the most
simple and can be programmed the easiest and in most cases gives a farley good
result [134]. However in [132] it is shown that robots moving using this motion
criterion consume more energy. To reduce energy consumption a constant kinetic
energy motion criterion should be utilized, where the robot move as close to constant
kinetic energy as possible. The motion will be slower than the time optimal one but
the consumed energy will be less [132]. Not only the power consumption will be
reduced, but because of smaller accelerations and braking the robot’s trajectory will
be much smoother resulting in better manufacturing qualities and longer robot
lifetime [130].
The biggest potential of energy consumption, the robot’s kinetic energy, is dealt with
by developing innovative offline programming and simulation software. These
software tools are able to improve existing robot programs under consideration of
energy aspects. This method helps optimizing energy consumption for existing robot
77
systems as well as systems that yet have to be programmed. How powerful this
simulation-software is, shows an analysis of an optimizing-loop on a ROBOGUIDE
station [Fig.54].
[Fig.54] Energy-Optimizing with ROBOGUIDE
Motion-optimizing reduces the energy consumption by 8,3% versus the original
motion-program. Cycle time remains unchanged.
2.9.
CONCLUSIONS
If you had to name a megatrend that has influenced the development of robot
technology the last two decades and will keep influencing it in the future, it clearly
has to be the issue of software tools. As mentioned in the introduction computer
producer APPLE and their easy programmable APPS have shown that the world of
software is as eternal as for instance the literary world. Every programmer is able to
create something completely new and to extend the features of computers,
smartphones, and machines. If status quo of computer hardware stayed like it is today
and developments were restricted to software, most people would not notice a
slowdown of the overall development. Software unites competences and experiences
of robot users and developers. To build the infrastructure for software developers is
possible at any place of the world [94].
Even today software is a decisive factor in technological advancements. It calculates
and compensates the deflection of robot arms under heavy loads and at high speeds
software eliminates vibrations and resonance. Also the communication management
is controlled by software as robot security is almost completely based on software
models that monitor virtual safety rooms and evaluates the situation by matching the
redundancies of two processors. In the field of multi axis systems and cooperating
robots, software is the foundation for common planning of movement paths. Beside
CPU power on the hardware side this is an important technological part.
The advancements in energy efficiency of robots, too, are dominated by software
tools. The development of economical drives and lighter materials is a long process
that takes several years until noticeable results improve the efficiency. But intelligent
software can optimize robot programs immediately and, thus, realize large energy
saving potentials. [Fig. 14]
The model of APPS has not reached the industry yet. Many industrial companies
cannot imagine that software is open to third party users and those external
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programmers and software developers create programs without their own influence.
The immense potential of development resources that already exists will enter the
industry as well. Some robot manufactures have been working on this topic actively
since 2010.
However, the unquestionably exposed status of software is not supposed to curtail the
worth of controls and sensor systems. The simplified view that describes the control
as the brain, the software as the intelligence, and the sensors as the senses of a robot,
will help to evaluate the importance of each of the three factors. It is easy to recognize
that robot control, sensor system and software are equally important. The main
differences between the three fields of technology are speed of development,
necessary investment volumes, and potentials of resources. Controls will be
developed at the pace that is valid for machine tools and computer technology. A
separate development of robot controls cannot be expected. The outlook for sensor
systems is much more difficult. In particular the sector of vision sensors is connected
to the developments in photography and camera technology. Speaking of consumer
electronics advancements in these sectors are much faster than in the industry. Thus,
advancements in sensor systems will not develop evenly. While vision sensors will
take the speed of consumer electronics, touch sensors, force sensors, and measuring
sensors will keep the momentary speed of its industrial environment.
2.10. NEW RESULT, SCIENTIFIC RESULTS
New results:
o In the past, the industrial and scientific software- development represents the
current top- level of feasibility.
o With the opening of the public, as software-development- resource, the
consumer- marked overtake for the first time the industrial development, in
case of speed and creativity and innovations.
o The robot as a unique universal industrial machine depends strongly on
software development. Much more than other industrial equipment.
I have investigated that since at least 2010 robot supplier work on similar open
develop platforms, like in the smartphone- industry. If they succeed in their
developments, those suppliers will create an enormous source on developmentresources in their customer environment, where today the most of all application
software is used and enhanced.
I developed the theory that the success in these software- developments will have
significant influence on the opening of new application- markets for robots.
Publications:
[77] Mies, G. 2012, Principles of Controls, Sensoric and Software Development of
automation and robots, http://www.szrfk.hu/rtk/
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CHAPTER IV
ROBOTIC AND HUMAN SOCIETY
1. ROBOTICS INFLUENCING HUMAN SOCIETY
1.1.
INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE OVERVIEW
Technological developments and their effects on human society can only be analyzed
in retrospect. Whether a certain innovation will change the world, cannot be
predicted. The Apollo missions to the moon, for instance, have influenced our lives
much less than the invention of the mobile phone. History, however, shows that the
mobile phone would not have been invented without the IT knowledge that scientists
had pushed in aerospace or other industries. Thus, looking at the past might help us to
assess the possible influences of new technologies like robotics. The performance and
capability of modern robots increase continuously which asks schools, colleges and
universities to integrate such technologies into their schedules. This essay gives an
overview the technological interactions in history, the effects on society and future
challenges in teaching how to deal with robotics [99].
Major technological innovations have had influence on human life at many points in
history. The invention of the wheel as well as machines that introduced the Industrial
Revolution, not to mention the great advances during the 20 th century have left traces
in our lives and determined the way society has gone since then and will go. This
essay deals with one of these determining factors. The history of robotics, including
development of industrial as well as civil robots and the advances in computer
sciences, gives several examples that have had major influence on society.
The first chapter of this essay introduces briefly the history of robotics. A lot of
authors have worked on this topic, from which only a few are mentioned here. [2]
Needham, for example, in Science and Civilisation in China. In Hidden History: Lost
Civilizations, Secret Knowledge, and Ancient Mysteries describes Chinese water
clocks, whereas [6] Angelo gives a whole overview in Robotics: a reference guide to
the new technology.
The question what influences robotics has had on society is answered in the second
chapter. Industrial robots on the one hand and technological innovations in the private
sector are of major importance here. Looking at the developments in both robotics
and computer sciences it becomes obvious that the matter of artificial intelligence has
to be mentioned in this essay, too. One author that has to be mentioned here is
[100][4] Nilsson, who gives in “The Quest for Artificial Intelligence” an introduction
to this topic.
In the third chapter we consider the consequences for training and teaching because
the changes resulting from advances in robotics require researchers and students to
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think forward not only seeing the technological possibilities, but also the demands in
society and economics.
A lot of publications deal with the history of robotics. Among these there are
scientific works, journals, books, and technical literature. Apart from these novels and
movies have had this topic for almost hundred years. Additionally, conferences give
space for presentations on robotics like [19] Szabolcsi/Mies with “Robotic in
Nutshell- Past and Future”. [2] Needham, J. 1959 wrote in “Science and civilisation
in China” about the beginnings of automation while [6][3] Angelo looks at the more
recent past. [100][4] Nilsson in „The Quest for Artificial Intelligence” describes the
common basis of computers and robots.
In “Die Herrschaft der Mechanisierung”, [101] Giedion talks about the first flowproduction of the industrial age, i.e. the production in slaughterhouses in Cincinnati
and Chicago. [102] Hounshell, with „The Development of Manufacturing Technology
in the United States” and [103] Lacey with “FORD” give a look at the rapid
development of conveyor systems and the assembly line production. In his
autobiography [104] Ford describes how much time a company can save by changing
the working level to the height of the arms.
Already in 1913 [105] Homburg studied working places that got separated into
individual working steps and paid related to performance. The German newsmagazine [12] “Der Spiegel” in 1964 published a story on threats to jobs because of
the use of robots in a large bakery. Many political unions called robots as “JobKiller”, which had negative effects on society. The public opinion had changed for
the better by 1987. The [107] “Computerwoche” quotes comments made by unions
that saw the robot as an instrument for better working conditions.
[108] Misselhorn describes the effects of robotics on society by considering the
sociological background. He focuses on the research of human emotions compared
with the lack of emotions regarding androids. [109] Christaller looks at another issue
concerning society, namely legal aspects in case of malfunctions of robots. He asks
who is responsible in such situations und who has to bear liability.
1.2.
HISTORICAL OVERVIEW
The origins of modern robotics may be found in Greek and Egyptian history, when
people had the idea of intelligent mechanisms. The first robotic application in the
history of mankind, however, is said to be the Babylonian water clock, the clepsydra.
Similar works appeared in China. [2](Needham, 1959, 313) When it comes to the
Middle Ages, engineers designed more complex mechanical arrangements like clocks
or in Leonardo da Vinci’s case even a first humanoid robot. Such, as well as later
inventions are important parts in robot history as they show how people thought about
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mechanical possibilities, but they have not had major impacts on human society. This
impact was caused during the Industrial Revolution in the 18 th and 19th century.
1.3.
ROBOTIC DEVICES IN INDUSTRIAL ENVIRONMENTS
During the second half of the 18th century several innovations have changed the
important industries forever. In the textile industry, for instance, three men had great
influence on the ways of spinning. Richard Arkwright invented the water frame,
James Hargreaves came up with his Spinning Jenny, and Samuel Crompton combined
both inventions in his Spinning Mule that was finally patented in 1783. Of course,
people profited from these developments: From now on cotton mills helped to
produce different kind of textiles faster and in larger amounts, which made the final
products cheaper for any consumer.
James Watt’s steam engine of 1775 has had a similar impact on the industry. Had it
been initially used to power pumps that where needed to get water out of mines, it
soon became an efficient power source for other machines as well. Now, companies
were able to build factories in places without waterpower. These factories soon
became bigger and semi-automated, which – like the cotton mills, too – also
influenced the way people worked. Human labor in factories was organized in a way
that people were trained to do special tasks in the process and afterwards give the
product to next employee who performs his task. This change in working processes is
seen as the birth of assembly lines that gained even more importance in the following
decades and centuries.
1.4.
ROBOTS ENABLE MASS PRODUCTION
The assembly line as well as the use of more machines helped to improve automated
manufacturing throughout the industrialization. One of the most prominent examples
is Ford’s Model T. Henry Ford managed to reduce the complexity in each of the 84
areas the production consisted of. These measures shortened the assembly time of one
car from over 12 hours in the beginning to 93 minutes in 1914. In the end the
production volume increased to 2 million cars annually. Henry Ford not only built
more and more cars, he also designed the Model T in the interests of his customers
including an attractive price of 240 Dollar. The enormous success proved that Ford
was right. Summed up there are enough reasons why the model T can be considered
as the first mass product in industrial history.
In spite of all this automated labor the word robot was not used back then. The Czech
writer Karel Čapek coined this term meaning “compulsory labour” (Christensen,
2007) in his play “R.U.R. – Rossum’s Universal Robots” from 1921. It dealt with
artificial humans that today are known as androids. In 1926 Fritz Lang’s “Metropolis”
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showed the first robot in film. Although humanoid robots did not play a major role in
the industry, companies later took this term for their robotic inventions. In the first
years those robots were built mostly for public relation purposes. They may have
shown people what some day would be possible, but it was not long until the rise of
computer technology has changed a lot.
1.5.
INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS AS THEY ARE KNOWN TODAY
During the 1930s several scientists and engineers worked on the first machines that
paved the way to the first real computer. Vannevar Bush, for instance, developed the
so-called Differantial Analyzer that was able to solve differential equations. The more
important milestones in computer technology, however, was Konrad Zuse’s Z3 in
1941 and in 1944 Howard Aiken’s and Grace Hopper’s Mark 1. With these first
programmable computers science and industries were able to enter a new age of
technology.
The first industrial robots as we know them today resulted from robotic achievements
on the one hand and computer development on the other. The combination of both
scientific fields enabled researchers and industrial companies to develop teleoperated
robots that could do work that was too dangerous or too heavy for human workers. In
the beginnings, for instance, industrial robots were used by the Atomic Energy
Commission to handle nuclear material. Raymond Goertz was the one who designed
this teleoperated robot in 1951. Teleoperated robots were soon followed by
programmable robots – the first step to automation.
Only a few years after Goertz’ construction, in 1954, George Devol designed the first
programmable robot. The engineer not only coined the term Universal Automation
but together with the engineer Joseph Engelberger he founded the first robot company
two years later. It was named Unimation. Joseph Engelberger knew about the
importance of robots and the use for companies. Automobile manufacturers, for
instance, were facing a growing demand for cars and, thus, looking for more efficient
ways to work at the assembly lines. Uitmation, finally, delivered a solution, the onearmed Unimate robot. General Motors has used this robot from 1959 onwards to
unload hot die casts, to cool the components, and to process them to a trim press. ([6]
Angelo, 2007, 41f.)
1.6.
COMPUTERS CONQUER THE WORLD
Over the years computers have become much smaller than the first models had been,
more powerful and more affordable, too. They soon entered daily life in fields of
work and entertainment. This changed workflows considerably as many processes
that had been done manually before now were automated with help of the computers.
Databases were able to not only save important data, but also manage them, which
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saved a lot of time when they had to be found. Today society would hardly be able to
live without computers. The rise of this technology in the 80s and 90s has had effects
on practically every field of life. Innumerable computer servers organize website and
e-mail traffic, bank transfers or, in recent years, social networks. Today all of these
internet products and services are important parts of our lives and will experience
further development in the future.
Many of today’s common technologies have been used and developed in military
environments first. Sooner or later people recognize economical potentials and offer
solutions for the private sector. The use of GPS satellites is an example of recent
history. Still important in modern warfare navigation systems have become popular in
civil products as well. More and more cars are sold with GPS technologies or
customers buy mobile navigation systems. Even in sports like hiking and cycling
people use GPS devices. There are numerous advantages to profit from. Traffic
members can concentrate on driving their cars instead of being distracted by reading a
map. That is a plus in safety and people can save a lot of time.
All of these modern technological solutions are the result of many years of research in
future sciences. Beside robotics and computer development we have to mention the
issue of artificial intelligence here, too. In 1950 Alan Turing was one of the first to
think about the possibility that computers, one day, might be more intelligent than
humans. Today [100] Nilsson (2010) gives one of several definitions: “For me,
artificial intelligence is that activity devoted to making machines intelligent, and
intelligence is that quality that enables an entity to function appropriately and with
foresight in its environment.” Thus, the matter of artificial intelligence plays a major
role in the development of automation systems and robots. Thus, the future of
robotics will be influenced by advances in this scientific field as well.
Looking at the ancient beginnings of technological history and what has happened in
the last 100 years it is easy to see the rapid development in modern times. Major
inventions always had major influences on society, but today technological
improvements happen faster and in a greater number. It is hard to say what exactly
will happen in the next decades, but it is certain that the speed of development will
rise. Speaking of robots again, manufacturers will not reinvent the wheel, but new
technologies will help them to raise the performance, the precision and the
capabilities of industrial robots.
1.7.
CHANGES IN HUMAN SOCIETY LEAD BY AUTOMATION AND
ROBOTICS
The first industrial robots that fulfilled certain tasks in manufacturing had been
installed in order to raise production volume. Ford’s Model T, as mentioned above,
might be the best example. The increased production of goods allowed manufacturers
to offer things at affordable prices. This had the consequence that more and more
people bought those goods, which led to a higher demand and, again, to higher
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production volumes. Robots and automation solutions supported this development –
with the effect that production has become ever more efficient always keeping up
with the increasing demand of consumers.
Robots not only increased production volumes, but also the speed of the production.
Consumers did not have to wait endlessly for new products, because automated
processes guaranteed that goods were manufactured in shorter times. Thus,
companies were able to ensure a fast and reliable supply of products.
The reason why goods have become more affordable is directly connected to the
automation processes, too. For these newly developed manufacturing processes
companies needed less human workers than before. Personal costs always had a great
share in the overall production costs, which is why companies still try to get along
with rather less than more workers. In automated working areas robots are able to
substitute a lot of workers who otherwise would have to work in several shifts.
Companies still need humans, but these are well-trained and only responsible for the
control a programming of the robots. This means that human labor has become much
more qualified compared with the work decades ago.
The use of robotic devices in manufacturing, however, had also effects on the
development of goods. Designers had new possibilities to create products because the
machines were able to produce them in other ways than humans could. Robots were
stronger and soon became very precise in their tasks. Thus, over the years
manufacturers invented new and more innovative products for their customers.
In factories robotic solutions led to yet another improvement looking at the matter of
safety. Many tasks connected to heavy metal work, for instance, require a lot of
people. Still the risk of accidents remains. This is only one example where robots
contributed to the employers’ safety. The same is valid for tasks that involve nuclear
materials or dangerous chemicals. Robots handle them with ease and are not affected
by their dangers.
Industrial robots have affected society a lot, but considering the development of
computer technology there have been many more effects on daily life. As mentioned
above the internet and GPS systems are two important examples that have changed
life. The internet in particular is an instrument that has brought many comforts to
daily life considering communication over thousands of miles, online shopping and
matters of banking. Here it becomes obvious that these technologies have a great
share in globalization processes that have become inevitable during the last decades.
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[Fig.54] Navstar 2 GPS satellite
In conclusion it is the continuously improving artificial intelligence of machines, i.e.
robots as well as software, that has influenced and will keep influencing society in
future. Robots are a good example here: today we have to program robots and teach
them what they have to do. Future generations of robots may be capable of learning
much more than today and they could learn things on their own. They even could act
similarly to human beings, since one of the aims in artificial intelligence sciences is
build machines that work autonomously – including the capability of making
decisions.
We have observed that development in modern technology today is faster and that
more products get invented. The consequence is that also changes in society lead by
technological achievements happen faster and more often. However, it is hard to tell
the difference between cause and effect, because the other consequence is that people
rely on technological development and want to have ever better products. Thus, the
challenge for manufacturers is to keep up with technological possibilities on the one
hand and their customers’ demands on the other hand.
1.8.
TEACHING OF AUTOMATION AND ROBOTICS
The technological development over the last decades today influences manufacturing
processes a lot. This is the reason why we have to teach automation and robotics in a
way that considers those developments in every aspect of modern economics and
production processes. Manufacturers have to adapt to changed demands of their
customers, which is done by developing products the market requires, Manufacturers
also have to develop goods that have the potential to be successful in order to keep up
with competitors. The development of new products is followed by their production.
At this point of the whole process automation and robotics come into play.
One consequence of the many new products that are developed today is their shorter
life cycle. Still, these products have to be manufactured in great numbers. This
requires intelligent automation systems that work fast and reliable. However, there is
also a major need for flexibility, since manufacturers have to react fast to changed
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demands and new developments. Without automation systems and industrial robots
the production would not be able to react adequately because operating machines
manually would take too much time. This refers to set-up times as well as changing
work pieces. However, the advances in these technological fields show that the ever
improving artificial intelligence of robotic solutions enables researchers to come up
with innovations that work according to the demands.
As we see, the whole process of developing robots of the most different kinds –
whether for economic reasons or as everyday helpers in society – is connected to
improving the artificial intelligence of machines. The latter in this case may be
mechanical as well as software-based solutions. Both parts, nowadays, are linked
together and function as appropriately as they are meant to do. If this fact is
understood and applied at an early stage of every development process, researches
end engineers will be able to build the robots that are needed today.
Future employees in manufacturing environments will have to learn, that they have to
include robotics and automation into their organization of production processes. It is
the optimization of these processes that will them and their companies enable to keep
up with market developments. This understanding and the resulting demand for more
capable and powerful automation systems and industrial robots will help to develop
ever better solutions.
1.9.
CONCLUSION
History gives many evidences for major technological developments that have had
lasting effects on society. One of these evidences is the Spinning Mule. This and
similar machines were able to produce better fabrics faster and for a lower price than
manually run spinning machines. Smaller family business in this branch had more and
more difficulties to sell their products. In the end poverty and hunger led to the
uprising of the weavers in 1844.
The introduction of the assembly line by Henry Ford was a similar technological
revolution – with the opposite effect on society, though. Lower production costs
enabled Ford to sell cars at a better price. Now, much more people could afford an
own car. The increased demand made way for millions of working places.
These examples show that social effects by technological developments cannot be
predicted in advance. In particular, such questions cannot be answered by technicians
and engineers. At this point politics and society will have to look into these problems
as well.
Automation and the rapid development in robotics will influence our lives in the
future considerably. Especially the universality of robotics makes this field an own
discipline of technology. At colleges and universities automation technology in most
cases is part of production technology. Robots are seen as a subgroup in engineering
or tooling machines. The reason for the latter is that robots as well as tooling
machines use – to a part – the same components like controls and drives. In addition,
even business studies deal with robotics and automation from the economic point of
view.
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Today industry and the market give a clear direction. There is an increased demand
for engineers who can implement holistic projects in production and manufacturing.
They are supposed to know how manufacturing has to be organized with respect to
technology, economics, quality, and flexibility, because they have to develop optimal
solutions for the given tasks. Thus, they also consider the product’s characteristics, its
life cycle, production volume, changes in construction, quality, profitability,
performance, energy consumption, re-usability of automation components, training of
workers and flexibility of the whole installation.
Nobody would expect a composition to know how to make instruments. But he has to
know the sound range of these instruments in order to write good music. The training
of engineers has not recognized this analogy yet. It rather concentrates on the building
complex machines than on the rapid speed of the technological development.
Engineers of automation and robotics have to focus on the capabilities of robots.
Supported by universities this focus on application technology and robotics can create
a whole new generation of engineers.
1.10. NEW RESULT, SCIENTIFIC RESULTS
New results:
o In the last decade, robots have reached the status of a commodity in human
life. With its spread in nearly all kind of industries, in significant military
applications and direct in the human life with the service robots, robotics has
definitely left the status as special machine.
o The process of acceptance of robots in human society, presenting itself as
ongoing, permanent evolution to each new upcoming technology.
I my academic work I developed the theory, that with the positive experience out of
the past in industry, in future no opposition against robotics is to be expected.
In military- and service robotic, in contrast, is the broad use of robot technology quite
new and will consequently create proportionate opposition; in military section
generated by the fast growing use of UAVs and in the service section with the use of
robots in direct human care.
Publications:
[99]
Mies, G. 2011, Robotics Influencing Human Society, Debreceni Műszaki
Közlemények 2012/1 (HU ISSN 2060-6869),
http://www.mfk.unideb.hu/userdir/dmk/docs/20121/
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2. NEW UNDERSTANDING OF ROBOTICS
2.1.
INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE OVERVIEW
The new understanding of the robotics describes three approaches of the robotics. The
first is the sociological consideration in the sphere of human; the second is the
technically economic consideration as a flexible and intelligent automation
instrument; the third is the robotic in the consumer section (service robots).
Robot development over the last decades has shown that not only technology and its
capability has changed a lot, but also the understanding of robotic issues and the
matter of artificial intelligence has to be reconsidered. Technological advancements
have led to new applications for robots and computers.
The old wish of humans, to own a machine which takes over all the unpleasant work,
is the origin for a lot of imagination, novels and movies but also the basic for new
ideas and inventions. Leonardo da Vinci was one of the first inventors who have
made detailed plans and subscriptions for a design of a robot [111].
With producing the first machines similar to robot, the doubts of the people grew, at
the same time to become replaceable and it before the uncontrollability of the
"intelligent" machinery.
The social effects by the insertion of modern technology became visible for the first
time during the weaver's revolt about 1844. Here the existence basis of thousands
weaver was destroyed with the invention of the mechanical loom, by the price
collapse of the woven material.
At the same time a great number of the population profited from falling prices of
clothes and woven products.
This phenomenon, that on the one hand technical innovations substitute human and
on the other hand creates new advantages by them, runs throughout to the entire
history of industrialization.
In the past robots were seen as helpful devices that increase productivity, today they
still do this, but many people argue, if jobs are at stake because of robots. Apart from
that controlling robots in a save way is in issue that points at security for many people
– for instance in military environments. In the first chapter such questions will be
considered under the title “Friend or foe: Privileges and disadvantages of robotics”.
The second chapter “Robotics in Common Life,” looks at robots that are used in
everyday life. In many cases we do not perceive these technologies as robotics, but
keeping in mind that a lot of devices and internet services use artificial intelligence in
some way, it will be helpful to give several examples for robotic achievements we
have been using for a while now and will be using for the upcoming years.
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“New fields of robotics”, the third chapter, gives an outlook where robotics is heading
to and what developments we can expect in the next years. Will there be humanoid
robots as we know them from science fiction stories or do we have to concentrate on
today’s robotics and develops it for future applications.
Robotic in the light in the sociological consideration in the sphere of human, the
technically economic consideration and in the consumer section gives in literature
many papers, books and scientific works from different academic disciplines. Many
television and internet broadcast productions focusses on the sociological and the
consumer topic.
Under the headline “Friend or foe” the military robotic is a large part of literary work.
In case of military robots, the literature is often orientated to robotized weapon
systems, here special the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) technology. Dr. habil.
Róbert Szabolcsi deals in many scientific congresses [113][114], symposia’s and
publications [112] with the subject UAVs. Magazines and associations like [116]
FOCUS- Online and [115] “The Bureau of Investigative Journalism” report on the
use of UAVs fighting against terrorism.
In his article [111] “Launching a new kind of warfare”, Peter Warren describes the
growth of Future Combat Systems (FCS) till 2015.
Martin Ford [117] fears in his publications that the displacement on the job market by
robot weakens the purchasing power of the consumer markets [118]. Aaron Saenz
[119], senior editor of “Singularity Hub”, also discuss the thesis from Ford. Marshall
Brain [120] in „Robotic Nation” sees also economic risks in using robot technologies.
1942 [122] Isaac Asimov, in “Runaround”, [124] Jordan Pollack in “Ethics for the
Robot Age” and [123] “Sigma and Delta scans” deals with sociological items of
robotic.
Jo Twist [124] in “BBC News Online” and Jim Pinto [125] in Automation World,
describe examples of fully automated applications quite existing today.
In “Benefits of Human-Robot Interaction”, [127] Pericle Salvini, Monica Nicolescu
and Hiroshi Ishiguro, report the requirements for robots to work with humans.
Dr. M. Klos [128], expresses in an Interview with RTL- Nachtjournal the future cost
targets for service robots.
2.2 FRIEND OR FOE? PRIVILEGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF
ROBOTICS
In many cases, new technology- results in new products will make peoples life easier
or more comfortable. Since robotics and artificial intelligence have been entering our
lives for the past decades both of these fields deliver excellent examples for products
that are applied to every field of life – at work, in private life or in the military.
Superficially, we associate a lot of privileges with such innovations, because they do
a lot of works that are too heavy, too dangerous or simply too annoying for human
beings. Or these technologies just fulfill certain tasks much faster and better than we
do. This helps us to increase productivity and quality. Looking at all the advantages
robotics brings to our lives the question arises whether there are major disadvantages.
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If they exist, we have to consider if the technological benefits are worth living with
these disadvantages or if they can be eliminated by further innovations.
Robots “Friend or foe”, is in a global world also a question of the point of view. In
the western industrial countries will be the invention of service-robots for cleaning,
customer- service or protecting a great effort for the society. In developing countries,
where millions of people live from their work in the service sector, it would be a
catastrophe if robots enter this field of application.
The same question rises up with the use of military robots. Using robotized weapon
systems can safe many lives of soldiers and reduce collateral damages. From 2011 till
2012, the US- Army increases there drones- arsenal from 200 to 7500 units [115].
With the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) [112][113], the US military follows
their strategy to kill their enemies without risk the lives of their own soldiers. Thus
[115] "Bureau for Investigative Journalism" registered from 2004 to 2009, 52 drone
attacks against terrorists [116]. These weapons are remote controlled from the US-air
force base Creech in Nevada and works with a high efficiency.
The “Bureau for Investigative Journalism” claims, that 535 civilians have been
credibly reported as killed since Obama is US President three years ago.
[Fig. 55] The MQ-9 called also “Reaper”, counts to the fight drones who are used in
Afghanistan and Pakistan. FOCUS online 5.2012
2.2.1. PRODUCTIVITY – INDUSTRIES PROFIT MOST
In order to recognize advantages and disadvantages of robotics we have to consider
the different fields of use. Production certainly is one of the most important sectors
for robot devices, because being used to technological progress are very demanding
when it comes to affordable and innovative products. Robots help manufacturers not
only to produce these goods at high speed and in large numbers, they also ensure to
meet the quality users want to have. Thus, companies like Volkswagen or Apple
profit from their robots’ productivity and accuracy. Even in these quantities quality
today is absolutely repeatable – a fact that is not only noticed by customers but also
valued. At this point there seem to be no direct disadvantages for them, but a closer
look will reveal other problems.
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Since human workers are not able to compete with the performance of machines there
is a considerable shift in work life. Today the companies require much more skilled
workers, because the simple tasks are done by robots. The consequence for
employees is obvious: They have to adapt to this development and acquire the
necessary knowledge if they want to keep their jobs. For the next generation of
workers the situation is even clearer: If they want to find a decent job they have to
work on their education in advance. Thus, competition on the labor market will rise.
On the one hand, unskilled workers will have difficulties finding a job, on the other
hand companies might have problems to find enough skilled employees as it can be
observed in many industrialized countries.
In [117] “Machine Learning: A job killer?” Martin Ford sees another risk in job life.
According to his opinion not only hard work will be done by robots, but knowledgebased jobs might be in danger, too:
“… in large organizations there is an enormous amount of data (activities coupled
with outcomes) that is waiting for a machine learning algorithm to come along and
churn though it. That may ultimately result in software automation applications of
unprecedented sophistication. Anyone who sits in a cubicle performing a knowledgebased job may have cause for concern.”
He comes to this conclusion because today everything, from transactions to
interactions and e-mails, is recorded. Robots are able to analyze and sort such
recorded data which might result in the mentioned algorithms. Martin Ford even goes
a step further in his book [118] “The Lights in the Tunnel”. There he “explores the
economic implications of a world which is becoming increasingly automated”, as
[119] Aaron Saenz puts it. Ford thinks that the robot caused job reductions could
reduce the mass market purchasing power and endanger global economy.
Similarly [120] Marshall Brain sees the possible risks that robot technologies might
bring:
Getting Money form an ATM, buying gas from an automated pump, or the existence
of self-service check-out line at groceries. In “Robotic Nation” he sees these common
technologies as an iceberg that will eventually change the economy, because they are
able to eliminate a lot of jobs.
A less direct consequence of robot technologies and increased productivity is the
consumption of valuable resources. Producing large numbers of cars, smartphones, or
any other products requires much energy as well as materials. The environmental
consequences are well-known. Thus, industries are asked to find solutions. They have
to focus on alternative forms of energy as well as develop an understanding for the
limited resources. Especially in high-tech sectors the issue rare earth is a good
example.
2.2.2. ADVANTAGES BECOME STANDARDS – ROBOTICS IN PRIVATE
LIFE
The use of robotics in private life differs a lot from that in production environments.
Customers, today, do not buy robots as we know robots from the industry or even
from science-fiction films – at least not yet. But the daily live in modern countries is
dominated by robot technologies. Dishwashers and other household utensils belong to
the more obvious, but there are a lot of devices that are the result of robotics or
artificial intelligence. The car’s GPS navigates us from A to B, traffic lights are
controlled by intelligent computer systems, and in some cases trains travel without
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any drivers. Even the internet and its many services are based on highly intelligent
algorithms. All of these advancements are seen as a standard today, because we have
become accustomed to the privileges they offer.
Advantages of robotics in private life almost certainly prevail, because they give us a
lot of opportunities: more comfort and new ways of communication, for instance. But,
again, there are points that might be seen as a disadvantage. One of these points is the
price customers have to pay. Latest products, in particular, are the most expensive,
because manufacturers have to calculate these goods consciously. Their development
devours a lot of money as does the use of high quality materials. Last but not least,
marketing and sales have to be paid as well. These factors sum up to the prices
customers have to pay if they wish to buy the latest products. Apart from the costs
companies have to keep another aspect in mind: knowledge. This is not necessarily a
disadvantage, but developers are challenged to stay ahead with their technological
process. Similarly to the production, companies are in need of skilled people that are
visionary enough to see what customers want to use next – and they have to able to
implement these visions into new developments.
2.2.3. MORE SAFETY – ROBOTS ON THE BATTLEFIELD
The military always had to face political conflicts and wars that result from these
situations. In the past the power of armed forces was defined by the number of
soldiers or tanks. Still, such variables are important, but looking at modern military
organization even laymen can see that most advanced technologies have long entered
the armies. This was most obvious when CNN in 2001 during the first Gulf War
showed camera pictures of tomahawks finding their aims precisely. Nowadays,
drones or UAVs [112][113] are the latest instrument to operate behind enemy lines
either to scout the territory or to attack strategic aims. These technologies have
changed modern warfare a lot – for those who are in possession of the technology as
well as for those who are not. The question of privilege and disadvantage will be seen
differently here. There are aspects, though, that are valid for both sides.
The most obvious issue in military is that lives are at stake. Both soldiers and civil
people are in danger. All of them have to be protected as best as possible.
Superficially it sounds paradox, but advanced weapon systems are able to reduce
human losses. Of course they are more powerful and can cause more damage, but
they their precision also is much better than it has been in the past. The military is
able to take out aims without having unwanted losses. The reason is not only the
weapon’s accuracy, but also modern military intelligence. Satellites and drones spy
out very millimeter of a region. These information help soldiers on the field as well as
at the operational command center to get a holistic image of what is going on and to
plan their strategy accordingly. Intelligent military machines not only help to attack
the enemy, they also are used for rescue operations. Robots disarm bombs, scout the
territory or even safe wounded soldiers by dragging them out of the battlefield. Such
tasks are elementary if the risk for people in combat situations shall be decreased.
The importance of military robots is shown by plans of the US Department of
Defense. In his article [121] “Launching a new kind of warfare” Peter Warren says
that by 2015 in the US military “one third of its fighting strength will be composed of
robots, part of a $127bn project known as Future Combat Systems (FCS)”. This is
said to be part of the largest technology project in American history.
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2.2.4. ROBOT LAWS AND RIGHTS
In all robotic fields people deal with more or less intelligent machines that have to be
controlled appropriately. Malfunctions disturb processes and produce extra costs.
However, in the military such malfunctions include the risk that people are killed – no
matter on which side. That is why the issue of controlling intelligent systems is
particularly important here. Taken to an extreme, we can say that military engineers
have to develop intelligent weapons that are able to recognize good and bad. This
topic is not as new as it seems, though. [122] Isaac Asimov, formulated the Three
Laws of Robotics: In his short story “Runaround” from 1942 these laws say:
1.
A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human
being to come to harm.
2.
A robot must obey the orders given to it by human beings, except where such
orders would conflict with the First Law.
3.
A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not
conflict with the First or Second Laws.
Although there have been alterations of these laws or additional laws since then, the
point remains the same: It has to be ensured that artificial intelligence does not get out
of control. Only if this works perfectly well, people will benefit from the many
advantages of robotics. There will always be disadvantages that have to be observed
carefully, but if the use of robots and artificial intelligence stays safe, people will
rather be glad about technological innovations than fight against them.
The [123] “Sigma and Delta scans” give yet another point of view. In these papers
future researchers give an outlook of what might be expected from the robot
development. The BBC reports that the paper says “a ‘monumental shift’ could occur
if robots develop to the point where they can reproduce, improve themselves or
develop artificial intelligence”. The consequence would be that in 20 to 50 years
robots could be granted rights. The report continues:
“If this happened, the report says, the robots would have certain responsibilities such
as voting, the obligation to pay taxes, and perhaps serving compulsory military
service. Conversely, society would also have a duty of care to their new digital
citizens”
Having in mind in what direction robots can develop [124] Jordan Pollack asks
several questions in his Wired article “Ethics for the Robot Age”. He defines a robot
as any device that is controlled by software. Thus, robots are not intelligent enough to
understand Asomov’s Laws. That is why he considers whether robots should be
humanoid or if the connection between humans and robots should be even closer as it
already is.
2.3. ROBOTICS IN COMMON LIFE
From the industrial revolution onwards comforts in everyday life have been
increasing continuously. First, machines supported work. Later, people were able to
use many kinds of technology in private life. Especially the 20th century brought a lot
of innovations to households and made life easier in many respects: washers, dryers,
dish washers, cars. Apart from these more or less mechanical devices, electronic has
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made much progress, too, which resulted in entertainment electronics, computers,
GPS systems, and, finally, the internet.
2.3.1. ROBOTIC AIDS IN MANY FIELDS OF LIFE
In fact, we do not recognize in every device we use a robotic connection, but since
most technologies are based on the fundamental mechanical and electronic
achievements of the last centuries there is a connection that cannot be denied. The
already mentioned household utensils or computers are only a part of what can be
seen as robotics. The tendency to even more automation becomes obvious if we see
the latest vacuum cleaners. They are able to do their work autonomously, scanning
the room with sensors and cleaning the whole ground.
Another field of life where robotics plays a major role is traffic. Cars have been built
for many years with automatic gears, later manufacturers implemented electric
windows and air conditioning. Today cars consist of many electronic aids and
computer systems that support the driver either to make the journey safer or more
comfortable. Outside the car it is similar: The whole system of traffic lights is
controlled automatically. Sometimes it even considers the amount of traffic. Although
there are no automatic cars yet driving passengers around, this topic is not too far
away, as it seems. Driverless trains at airports, for example, already carry people from
A to B. Speaking of cars, scientists will still have to work on the risks in street traffic,
because of unpredictable situation as long as people drive other cars.
Computer technologies have entered modern life very fast. Apart from helpful
solutions in everyday life the innovations brought a lot of entertainment opportunities
to society. Video recorder could be programmed to record TV shows, computer
games gave first impressions of how artificial intelligence will develop, and today the
internet with its many services is one huge network that operates, once programmed,
in many aspects autonomously.
A large field where robotics helps or supports people in a useful way is the health
sector. Today such technologies are used in medical treatments or surgeries, because
robotic instruments might work more precise than a surgeon can. Patients, too, profit
directly from innovations in robotics and artificial intelligence. Deaf people, for
instance, can hear again thanks to cochlear implants, blind people can hope for microchips that enable them to see again and paraplegics will walk again as soon as
technological advancements result in devices that control the legs. Amputees already
use prosthetics that recognize with the help of microchips the walk of the patient and
move the artificial knee accordingly.
Many people want to have service robots that help with everyday tasks. At this point
the technology hits certain limits today, but nonetheless engineers work on attractive
solutions as an example in Spain shows [125]. A group of robotic researchers are
University Jaume has developed a robot librarian that uses cameras, sensors, and
grippers to find and collect a book. This still is a small example for what is possible
with service robots, but the potential is enormous. Engineers have the vision of
service robots that assist old and disabled people or even do the housework for us.
However, such innovations are more or less visions today, because the development
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of these robots is at a very early stage and very cost-intensive. The next chapter will
give some prospects of how robots might be used in the future and what challenges
have to be solved.
2.4. NEW FIELDS OF ROBOTICS
Looking at the future of robotics the question arises whether we are facing a
development based on robot technologies we already know or if we may expect a
whole new world of humanoid robots or androids as we know them from science
fiction stories. Scientists will keep working on the latter, but existing robot systems
will have better chances to survive and to be developed over the upcoming years. The
reason is that people already benefit from these technologies and can estimate what
will be possible in the next years. Humanoid robots will also have a chance to be used
as service robots, for example, but their development takes much more time and –
even more important – the costs for those robots have to be reduced a lot until they
are attractive for civil purposes.
As it was in the past production environments will be affected by new robot
technologies at first. Today companies still need people that operate robots, program
them and do some working steps within the process chain. In his article “Fully
automated factories approach reality” [126] Jim Pinto gives an impression of what the
future will look like. He names IBM as an example for having one of the first “lights
out” factories. There robots produce keyboards fully automated. Only a few engineers
and technicians support the machines and they need people who deliver raw materials
to the factory and pick up finished products in the end. Pinto closes his article with an
old automation wisecrack: “The fully automated factory of the future employs only
one man and a dog. The dog is there to make sure the man doesn’t touch anything,
and the man is there to feed the dog.”
Regarding the fact that the amount of cars will increase the importance of robot
technologies and artificial intelligence for traffic solutions and car development will
increase as well. First approaches can be seen in today’s cars. They analyze the
surrounding traffic, assist in steering and break in emergencies when a minimum
distance to the car in the front is reached. Some scientists work on solutions for cars
that drive completely on their own, which is already possible. However, they have to
consider the traffic as a whole, which means that interaction between cars has to be
guaranteed in order to avoid crashes.
Coming back to service robots the matter of interaction is an important issue, too.
Human-robot interaction (HRI) is an interdisciplinary research field that aims at the
improvement of interaction between humans and robots. Thus, service robots in
particular are good examples here. The point is that service robots as many robot
technologies in the private sector do not work isolated from human beings as
industrial robots do. Nor do experts work with these robots. Consequently service
robots have to easy to handle and of course save for participating people. In [125]
“Benefits of Human-Robot Interaction” Pericle Salvini, Monica Nicolescu, and
Hiroshi Ishiguro argue the challenges that have to be overcome in order to make
service robots successful products in society:
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“Robots should be endowed with multimodal perception, cognition, and interaction
capabilities that enable them to fuse sensory perception from multiple sensors (such
as vision, audition, touch, smell, and others), assimilate these multimodal data in real
time, and then respond at the timescale of the interaction.”
Robot supplier already has their future develop concepts for Human-robot interaction
(HRI).
[Fig. 56] Yaskawa robotics strategy for the service industry (from yaskawa.co.jp)
As soon as sensing and perception of robots are good enough to recognize the world
as it is, it will be possible to develop service robots for a whole range of applications.
These robots still have to be affordable, though. As [126] Dr. Michael Klos form
Yaskawa Robots put it on Automatica 2012 in Munich: “Today we need a whole
institute to sponsor the development of a service robot. In five years the price might
drop below 100.000 Euro.” That is still a lot of money for a device that has a limited
capability of doing simple tasks. Of course, the robots fulfill their tasks in a given
environment perfectly well if trained correctly and if everything works they are
subservient and undemanding helpers. However, as soon as the tasks get more
complex, robots will reach their limits. One robot that does the whole household with
all its complex situations is a vision that is hardly possible to realize in the near
future.
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2.5. CONCLUSION
The development of future robots will be an important issue for researchers as well as
engineers. They have to decide, for which purposes robots are supposed to be used in
order to find innovative technological solutions. Right now it seems that humanoid
robots, for instance, are an interesting field for researchers who want to experiment
according to their visions. A widespread use in public will not be realistic due to
limited functionality and costs. In some exceptions people might find interesting
applications, but the picture of a society with humanoid robots in every household or
in public service is far away.
Robots in a form we already know today, namely technological devices based on
artificial intelligence, however, will be developed not only by researchers, but as well
by engineers in the industries. Almost every year manufacturers improve their
products, give machines better features, invent completely new devices that people
buy for different reasons: entertainment, practical uses, or in non-private sectors such
as the military. These devices have a great potential to get better and more affordable
in the future.
The new understanding of robotics obviously implies social aspects as well as
economic aspects. Robot manufacturers will not develop devices that cannot be sold
and they have to produce machines that society demands when people get used to
new standards and are interested in innovations. The manufacturers’ production itself
is based on robotics, too. Thus, intelligent machines will accompany us literally in
every field of life – a development that never stops.
This development will go step by step and need their time till somebody change the
system of development. If robot program- development becomes public, like
programming an APP for a smartphone, the speed of enhancements increases
significant.
The probably most important stage of development of the robotics will be that if
robots are able to be programmed to themselves and to transform even learnt in robotprograms.
At some point robots will get much more intelligent, though, than they are today. This
will be the time, when society and industry will have to consider how to deal with this
amount of intelligence, how to control robots that are capable of making important
decisions on their own. Today the dangers that result from robotics are relatively
small in most cases. In order to keep technology under control, people have to make
sure that there always is a button that stops the machine immediately if necessary.
2.6. NEW RESULT, SCIENTIFIC RESULTS
New results:
o The complex requirements for human senses in simple tasks of human life, is
today still an insuperable barrier for commercial installed robots. In the light of
cost-benefit ratio, in closer future will be no significant numbers of robots
installed in the area of private life.
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o The new understanding of robotics will be the new understanding of
manifestation of robots. In military as drone, in computing as AI- Software, or
in medicine as electronic substitute in an organ of a human body.
I made the conclusion that the position of robotics in society permanently changes
with the focus of the present top development item and if results became determinable
in public. The seeming endless develop resource of software became visible for public,
when the “Apps” enter the markets. The new understanding of robotic (for public) is
acceptance of intelligent machines in human environment.
Publications:
[147] Mies, Gerald, 2012: New Understanding of Robotics;
http://hadmernok.hu/2012_3_mies.pdf
CHAPTER V.
A NEW UNDERSTANDING OF TEACHING OF ROBOTICS
1. A GLOBAL WORLD IN 2030
1.1. INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE OVERVIEW
A new understanding of teaching of teaching of robotics is the core- thesis of this
academic work. Reflecting the previous chapters, in the last 5 decades, robots become
a further serial product. Many different manufacturers produce robots of different
types, different sizes, payload- categories and with hundreds of different abilities.
There is already a global robot- market which holds for every application the ideal
robot.
The very fast growing robot population, together with the fast rising of technical
complexity of robot, is the big challenge for technicians today and in future. The
latest publication of the IFR (International Federation of Robotics) shows, that the age
of robotics just has started. There is a large increase of robot sales in all the industrial
countries but almost explosive growth in the developing countries. With this is the
situation today, everybody will understand the upcoming challenge, looking to the
immediate and longer-term future. In a global world 2030 we have to expect robots
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working allover in production, military, service and many other fields of life. Schools
and Universities need to prepare themselves for this future with a new understanding
of teaching of robotics.
A estimation for the numbers of engaged robots in the year 2030 is only possible,
with the use of the statistic data´s out of the past. The statistics shows how the robot
market reacts in the past on different events and developments. It shows influences of
the price changes or quality demands.
Only a few publications in literature focus on the future robot market development
with real numbers. Most of the literature follows the future estimations in applications
and branches.
The IFR provides a unique global statistic for the robot markets and is the main
source of all published relevant market and branch-specific data`s.
The statistics are based on consolidated world data reported by robot suppliers as well
as on the statistics of the national robot associations of North America (RIA), Japan
(JARA), Denmark, (DTI), Finland (TBL), Germany (VDMA, R+A), Italy (SIRI),
Republic of Korea (KOMMA) Romania (Robcon), Spain (AER) and United Kingdom
(BARA) [129].
1.2.
IFR/VDMA DATA RESERCH
The IFR statistics count all types of robots and divide the “World Robotics” in two
main sections:
In industrial- robots and in service- robots.
The industrial robots contain the multipurpose manipulating industrial robots with
their main branches automotive industry, electrical and electronics industry, rubber
and plastics industry, food and beverage industry and metal products industry.
The service robots are divided in service robots for professional use and in service
robots for domestic use. Here the military robots are categorized as defense
applications, is by far the largest part of the service robot section.
1.2.1 INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS: DEFINITION AND CLASSIFICATION
The definition according to ISO 8373 of industrial robots in one classification which is
used from IFR.
Manipulating industrial robot as defined by ISO 8373:
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“An automatically controlled, reprogrammable, multipurpose manipulator
programmable in three or more axes, which may be either fixed in place or mobile for
use in industrial automation applications”
This definition is the delimitation to special machines in automation.
One classification of industrial robots is the mechanical structure or the robot type.
Fig. 57 [129] shows the common types of robot principles.
[Fig. 57] Classification of industrial robots by mechanical structure; World Robotics
2011, p7, f I.1
Since many years this classification represents the robot markets and shows steady
impressive growths of this branch. Since the last three years the parallel or delta
robot, as a fifths mechanical structure, becomes more important and enter the
statistics.
The classification for industrial robots by industrial branches shows the wide range of
usage for these multipurpose machines. [Fig. 58]
.
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[Fig. 58] Estimated worldwide annual supply of industrial robots at year-end
by industries 2008 – 2010; World Robotics 2011, p IX
The classification by applications areas gives an impressing overview about the
abilities and flexibility of industrial robots. The List [Fig. 59] below shows the type of
Classification, by application areas, which is used in the IFR yearly surveys.
Industrial robots broken down by application areas:
Handling operations/ Machine tending
 Handling operations for metal casting (including handling
operations for heat treatment)
 Handling operations for plastic moulding
 Handling operations for stamping/forging/ bending
 Handling operations at machine tools (loading/unloading)
 Machine tending for other processes (handling for assembly)
 Handling operations for measurement, inspection, testing
 Handling operations for palletizing
 Handling operations for packaging, picking and placing a/
 Material Handling n.e.c.
Welding and soldering (all materials)
 Arc welding
 Spot welding
 Laser welding
 other welding (incl. ultrasonic welding, gas welding, plasma
welding)
 Soldering
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Dispensing
 Painting and enameling
 Application of adhesive, sealing material or similar material
 Dispensing others/ Spraying others
Processing
 Laser cutting
 Water jet cutting
 Mechanical cutting/grinding/ deburring/ milling/polishing
 Other processing
Assembling and disassembling
 Fixing, press-fitting (including bonding)
 Assembling/ mounting/ inserting
 Disassembling
 Other assembling
Others
 Cleanroom for FPD
 Cleanroom for semiconductors
 Cleanroom for others
 Others
[Fig. 59] According to Tabel I.2 World Robotics 2011
Shares of applications 2010
8%
11%
handling
41%
welding
cleanroom
14%
assembling
others
26%
[Fig. 60] Shares of applications, industrial robots 2010, Gerald Mies 2012
The main difference to all other technical machines is that industrial robots are multi
process machines with no agreed application.
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1.2.2. SERVICE ROBOTS: DEFINITION AND CLASSIFICATION
The definition of service robots is much more difficult than the definition on
industrial robots. The service robots are divided in service robots for professional use
and in service robots for domestic use. The wide range of possible usage of service
robots makes the definition dependent from the application of the robot. Even
industrial robots could also be regarded as service robot if they is installed in nonmanufacturing operations.
The definition for service robots according to UNECE (United Nations Economic
Commission for Europe) and IFR is:
“Service robot: A robot which operates semi- or fully autonomously to perform
services useful to the well-being of humans and equipment, excluding manufacturing
operations.”
[148] Definition according World Robotics 2011, p15
Classification of service robots by application areas and types of robots
Section I Personal / Domestic Robots
Robots for domestic tasks
 Robot companions/assistants/humanoids
 Vacuuming, floor cleaning
 Lawn mowing
 Pool cleaning
 Window cleaning
 Others
Entertainment robots
 Toy/hobby robots
 Education and reserach
 Others
Handicap assistance
 Robotized wheelchairs
 Personal rehabilitation aides
 Other assistance functions
 Others
Personal transportation (AGV for persons)
Home security & surveillance
Other personal / domestic robots
Section II Professional service robots
Field robotics
 Agriculture
 Milking robots
 other robots for livestock farming
 Forestry and silviculture
 Mining robots
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




 Space robots
 Others
Professional cleaning
 Floor cleaning
 Window and wall cleaning (including wall climbing robots)
 Tank, tube and pipe cleaning
 Hull cleaning (aircraft, vehicles, etc.)
 Other cleaning tasks
Inspection and maintenance systems
 Facilities, plants
 Tank, tubes, pipes and sewer
 Other inspection and maintenance systems
Construction and demolition
 Nuclear demolition & dismantling
 Building construction
 Road construction
 Robots for heavy/civil construction
 Other construction and demolition systems
Logistic systems
 Courier/Mail systems
 Factory logistics (incl. AGVs for factories)
 Cargo handling, outdoor logistics
 Other logistics
Medical robotics
 Diagnostic systems
 Robot assisted surgery or therapy
 Rehabilitation systems
 Other medical robots
Rescue and security applications
 Fire and bomb fighting robots
 Surveillance/security robots
 Other rescue and security robots
Defense applications
 Demining robots
 Unmanned aerial vehicles
 Unmanned ground based vehicles
 Other defense applications
Underwater systems
Mobile Platforms in general use
Public relation robots and joy rides
Hotel and restaurant robots
Mobile guidance, information robots
Robots in marketing
Robot joy rides
Others (i.e library robots)
Other professional service robots not specified above
[129] IFR. Table I.4 World Robotics 2011, p18
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1.3. INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS WORLDWIDE MARKET
DEVELOPMENT
After the year of the finance crisis in 2009, the market of industrial robots recovers
faster than expected. In 2010 the robot branch reports 118.333 shipments, 97% up
compared to 2009. The number of total installed industrial robots growths up to
1.035.000 units worldwide.
The next chart shows the shipments of Industrial robots from 1993 up to 2010
[Fig. 61] World Robotics 2011, pp 21
The diagram shows clearly, that except in the years of a weak economy (1998, 2002
and 2009) the shipments of industrial robots stately growths. No other branch in the
field of engineering has similar constant trend of growths.
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The next chart gives a reflection where the markets of the largest increase are.
[Fig. 62] Industrial robot shipments according years and regions; World Robotics
2011, pp21
Was the annual shipments in 2001and 2002 of Asia and Europe nearly on the same
level, the figures indicate that the Asian robot markets reaches since 2005 the doubled
shipment- result than Europe.
Behind the numbers of the Asian success there are two countries of significant
increasing robot shipments; China and Korea.
The former strongest Asian robot market, the market of Japan, felt down from 43.932
shipments in 2005 to 21.903 shipments in 2010. This means that the Japanese
domestic robot market shrinks to half of the size in the last five years. The reason for
this change in Japan is not the change of production philosophies; it is the way of
production politics in a global world. Japan is still by far the largest supplier of
industrial robots with the highest robot- density in production industry worldwide.
China and Korea is the large driver of the Asian robot markets. Korea nearly doubles
their robot shipments and China triples the market from 2005 to 2010. But also many
other, smaller Asian markets double or triple their volume in the same time, but at a
lower level.
This development in the Asian automation industry indicates for future a clear change
from classical low wage countries with manual production to countries with high
automated production facilities.
1.3.1. MARKET- DENSITY OF INDUSTRIAL ROBOT
The density of industrial robots in a market is one of the economic key- figures in
order to compare various countries with different size of manufacturing industries.
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No other statistic provides such a clear picture of the level of automation in a national
economy. The Robot density is also the base of all future projections in future.
1.3.1.1. DEFINITION OF ROBOT DENSITY
The International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) distinguished into two
categories. The first is based on the whole manufacturing industry, the second is based
on the automotive industry. The separate analysis is motivated by the fact that in some
countries more than 50% of the industrial robots are installed in the automotive
Industry.
According to the ISIC is the definition ( [129] World Robotics 2011, p 32):
Definition 1: “Robot density: number of multipurpose industrial robots per 10,000
persons employed in manufacturing industry”
Definition 2: “Robot density: number of multipurpose industrial robots per 10,000
persons employed in automotive industry”
1.3.1.2. ROBOT DENSITY BASED ON THE TOTAL NUMBER OF PERSONS
EMPLOYED IN THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY
The average robot density in the world is about 51 robots per 10,000 employees.
The most automated counties, with above 51 robots per 10K employees in
manufacturing industry, are listed in the first chart [Fig. x7],. The second chart [Fig.
8] shows the countries with less than 51 robots per 10K employees.
[Fig. 63] Robot density by counties >51Robot/10000employees; World Robotics
2011
108
[Fig. 64] Robot density by counties <51Robot/10000employees; World Robotics
2011
In the analysis of both charts it becomes apparent that there is a high potential for
growth in automation for the most of the listed industrial countries.
The robot- density- data’s has a high valuation because in this specific survey are
without the statistical errors coming out from the yearly economic fluctuations. The
robot- density is regarded as more valid database than the number of the robot- stock
or the statistics of the annual growth.
The table [Fig. 65] gives a good indication of the growth-speed of the robot- density
in the last nine years. This information is very useful for other future projections,
because it shows how fast countries are able to increase automation in there
production industry.
According to the total numbers of robot- density per 1000 employees in
manufacturing industry worldwide there is between 2002 till 2010 a growths from
42%.
109
Estimated number of multipurpose industrial robots per 10,000 persons employed in the manufacturing industry (ISIC
rev.4: C).
Country
America
Argentina
Brazil
North America
- Canada
- Mexico
- USA
Asia/Australia
China
India
Indonesia
Iran
Japan
Malaysia
Philippines
Republic of Korea
2002
2003
2004
2005
2008
2009
2010
40
2
3
57
45
2
3
65
48
3
3
70
51
4
4
75
55
5
5
81
58
6
5
88
34
1
34
1
35
2
38
4
37
5
39
79
40
40
11
40
15
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
2
2
0
3
1
0
4
1
1
6
2
1
7
2
1
10
2
328
334
349
367
340
344
342
62
7
6
93
90
14
306
6
8
9
10
14
14
16
0
0
0
1
1
1
2
2
135
140
171
33
0
29
38
1
34
51
2
38
67
5
46
1
83
7
51
3
221
91 104
9
55
6
45
57
55
49
59
59
54
65
59
58
68
64
62
72
70
64
76
74
102
- Netherlands
Croatia
3
111
61
2
78
2
111
120
31
87
216
2
3
3
74
25
91 101
203
118
71
90 103
83
114
20
81
0
90 101
1
2
67
81
76
16
71
0
80
1
2
19
59
18
54
2
73
0
0
34
117
1
37
3
3
107
112
127
132
95 103
228
109
234
114
236
117
240
122
253
2
7
6
134
3
9
8
139
5
11
11
144
6
15
13
148
94
139
104
2
5
4
127
0
2
287
123
14
57
14
49
1
Estonia
Finland
77
111
20
12
57
8
43
1
13
61
186
111
234
110
37
0
12
52
70
204
31
8
44
172
193
106
Czech Rep.
Denmark
Greece
Hungary
338
5
126
Europe
Austria
Benelux
- Belgium
Israel
Italy
2007
37
2
3
52
130
Taiwan
Thailand
Australia
New Zealand
France
Germany
2006
34
2
2
46
8
17
16
153
18
161
Norway
Poland
24
3
26
2
28
3
32
3
36
4
36
6
38
8
39
10
40
12
Portugal
Romania
14
15
0
17
0
18
0
20
0
22
1
23
1
27
2
30
2
Russian Federation
Slovakia
4
10
4
10
4
10
4
12
4
12
0
14
1
17
1
24
1
43
Slovenia
Spain
21
65
21
69
17
76
20
83
25
90
31
96 101
38
Sweden
Switzerland
90
49
94 103
52
53
56
57
60
62
63
64
Turkey
Ukraine
United Kingdom
South Africa
Total
114
118
124
44
119
132
52
124
147
153
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
2
0
3
0
4
0
5
0
6
0
39
42
45
50
52
54
54
54
59
2
36
3
38
3
41
5
44
8
45
10
46
13
49
16
50
18
51
Sources: IFR, national robot associations, OECD STAN, national statistic offices, ILO
Note 1 : Robot densities are defined as the number of robots in operation per 10,000 persons employed in the manufacturing industry (ISIC rev.4: C).
Note 2 : Up to and including 2000, data for Japan include all types of robots. As from 2001, data exclude dedicated robots, except for dedicated machining
robots.
Note 3 : Data for the Republic of Korea include all types of industrial robots up to 2004.
Note 4 : Robot density for the regions and the total are only calulated with the listed countries
[Fig. 65] Estimated number of multipurpose industrial robots per 10,000 persons
employed in the manufacturing industry from 2002 to 2010.
110
To improve the statistical results, the IFR provides a second chart with the robotdensity related to 1000 employees only in automotive industry. This consideration is
necessary in order to take account the significant high automation- level in the
automotive industry.
Estimated number of multipurpose industrial robots per 10,000 persons employed in automotive industry
(ISIC rev.4: 29)
and in all other industries (ISIC rev.4:
C without 29)
Brazil*
North America*
Canada*
Mexico*
USA*
North America*
Canada*
Mexico*
USA*
China*
India*
Japan
Malaysia*
Rep. of Korea*
Taiwan*
Thailand*
Czech Republic*
France
Germany
Hungary*
Italy
Poland*
Portugal*
Slovenia*
Slovakia*
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
Automotive
all other
Automotive
all other
Automotive
all other
Automotive
all other
Automotive
all other
Automotive
all other
Automotive
all other
Automotive
all other
Automotive
all other
Automotive
all other
Automotive
all other
Automotive
all other
Automotive
all other
Automotive
all other
Automotive
all other
Automotive
all other
Automotive
all other
Automotive
all other
Automotive
all other
Automotive
all other
Automotive
all other
2005
28
2
380
2006
32
2
407
2007
38
2
456
2008
45
2
512
2009
50
3
579
36
38
41
44
47
37
3
50
4
64
5
1,551
235
84
7
508
145
322
70
118
3
111
11
582
43
1,003
112
49
4
1,218
94
39
2
353
10
320
13
12
5
769
34
377
86
513
22
1,575
231
147
9
534
153
352
76
159
4
134
14
589
47
1,059
117
52
5
1,278
97
48
3
390
11
359
16
12
6
792
39
380
92
561
23
1,636
228
136
10
571
166
396
86
211
5
161
17
597
50
1,034
124
63
6
1,265
102
41
5
410
12
413
20
13
7
794
44
382
101
561
23
75
6
24
0
1,551
224
146
10
586
177
409
89
236
6
181
19
612
53
1,064
127
81
8
1,266
107
46
6
442
14
485
23
18
10
896
53
389
113
585
25
1,598
270
95
6
475
127
259
56
81
2
94
9
556
38
946
105
37
3
1,189
90
32
2
319
9
268
10
15
5
740
28
395
79
486
20
Sources: IFR, national robot associations, OECD STAN, national statistic offices, ILO and estim ates
Note 1 : Robot densities are defined as the number of robots in operation per 10,000 persons employed in the manufacturing industry (ISIC rev.4: C).
Note 2 : Up to and including 2000, data for Japan include all types of robots. As from 2001, data exclude dedicated robots, except for dedicated machining
robots.
Note 3 : Data for the Republic of Korea include all types of industrial robots up to 2004.
* The stock of robots in the automotive industry is estimated
[Fig. 66] Estimated number of multipurpose industrial robots per 10,000 persons
employed in automotive industry and in all other industries; World Robotics 2011
111
2010
56
3
618
480
86
1,112
48
41
5
69
105
9
29
0
1,436
191
179
13
750
215
451
98
317
8
194
21
616
56
1,130
134
95
9
1,229
114
54
7
470
15
554
27
35
16
886
57
443
118
595
27
The chart [Fig.66] shows the division of the robot-density in countries with
automotive and non- automotive installations.
The high robot- density in automotive is clearly evident compared to all other
industries.
It is also very interesting to see, that the last six years growth of the density in
automotive is comparatively small. This can be the indication that in some sections,
like for example the body-shop, the automotive reach their optimal level of
automation industry related to current technology status.
The average of robot- density (countries Fig.66) is for:
Automotive Industry:
815 units/10000 employees
General Industry:
106 units/10000 employees
Robot- density in automotive industry, 2010
1800
1600
North America*
1400
Japan
1200
Rep. of Korea*
Taiwan*
1000
France
800
Germany
600
Italy
Spain
400
Sweden
200
United Kingdom
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
[Fig. 67] Development of robot- density in automotive industry in the 10 most
important supplier countries. Gerald Mies 2012.
The average from 815 units/10000 employees in automotive industry corresponds
approximate to the level of Spain. In the analysis of [Fig. 68] becomes obvious that
the most countries have a flat but continuous increase of robot- density in the period
of time.
112
Robot- density in general industry, 2010
300
North America*
250
Japan
Rep. of Korea*
200
Taiwan*
France
150
Germany
Italy
100
Spain
50
Sweden
United Kingdom
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
[Fig. 68] Development of robot- density in general industry in the 10 most important
supplier countries. Gerald Mies 2012.
The average from 106 units/10000 employees in automotive industry corresponds
approximate to the level of Italy. In the analysis of Fig. x10 becomes obvious that the
most countries have a flat but continuous increase of robot- density in the period of
time. The level of density between the top 10 automated countries is significant.
Korea uses 215 robots per 10000 employees, United Kingdom 27 robots per 10000
employees in the year 2012. Even in the group of these 10 countries is potential of
growth visible.
113
1.4. SERVICE ROBOTS WORLDWIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENT
Service robots are surveyed since 2009 in a separate, “World Robotics Service Robot
study”. Service robots are divided in two classifications, service robots for
professional use and in service robots for domestic use.
1.4.1. SERVICE ROBOTS FOR PERSONAL AND DOMESTIC USE
“Service robots for personal and domestic use are recorded separately, as their unit
value is generally only a fraction of that of many types of service robots for
professional use. They are also produced for a mass market with completely different
pricing and marketing channels” [129] World Robotics 2011, pp XIV.
To this group belong robots for household applications like vacuum cleaners, lawnmowing robots, entertainment robots, toy and hobby robots and home education and
research robots. From this devices are 2.2 million units sold worldwide in 2010.
This robots are part of the consumer industry.
Personal and domestic robots have no clear border to products from the toy, electronic
and household appliances industry. These robots have to work like any simple product
in domestic use. Everybody should understand their functions fast and easy. It should
be almost not necessary to do trainings or to study manuals to operate this equipment.
Service robots for personal and domestic use are not relevant education for robotics on
universities and colleges.
For these determining factors, personal and domestic robots will not further
considered in this academic work.
1.4.2. SERVICE ROBOTS FOR PROFESSIONAL USE
Service robots for professional use are similar to the industrial robots. There are
machines with a high technical level and predominant with a high value.
[Fig. 69] shows the market share 2010 of applications from service- robots for
professional use. Defense applications are dominating with a part of 45%.
As described in Chapter IV 2.2. increases the use of robotized military equipment with
the strong rise of unmanned combat missions as strategy against international
terrorism. To the defense applications are counted, demining robots, unmanned aerial
vehicles (UAV), unmanned ground based vehicles (UGV) and other defense
applications.
Special the defense robot represents the group with very high technical- and pricelevel.
The rate of growth in units of service robots for professional use, perform in a similar
way than industrial robots. The sales value on the other hand increases much more and
reflects the strong influence of the military use.
114
Professional service robots
11%
7%
7%
defense applications
45%
field robots
medical robots
logistic systems
others
30%
[Fig. 69] Shares of applications, professional service robots 2010, Gerald Mies 2012
1.5.
DATA PROJECTION 2030
The data projection up to the year 2030 is one of the central subjects of this
dissertation. Long term projections in the robotic are mostly focused to new branches
for robot applications and new robot- markets where countries step into the factoryautomation.
The future forecasts of IFR and VDMA are based on market facts, with actual
measurable variables. The validation period is up to three years and provides good
results.
A future projection to the next 19 years up to 2030 can not only base on actual market
data’s. In a long-term survey the market- development in the past have come into
consideration, to give an indication how fast these special markets are able to grow.
1.5.1. SOURCE DATA AND PROJECTION METHODS FOR INDUSTRIAL
ROBOTS
The base of all source data´s, are the IFR numbers. The IFR data´s are the only reliable
collection of worldwide market- data´s in robotics.
The following two methods and sources are used for the future projection 2030.
Both methods are predicting that the in a world of global a competition environment,
quality and production- standards become more and more similar. Already now, this
trend is clearly recognizable in the global automotive industry. Even today’s global
quality- and technical standards in the automotive industry, forces the supplier to use
high automated production machines.
115
This circumstance makes the future projection more accurate, because the production
environment in today`s high developed countries anticipates the coming situations in
the developing countries.
Method 1:
In method 1 has been assumed that the average growth between 1998 and 2014 can be
used for a future projection. The growth average out of such a long period, compensate
the up- and down- pikes in boom- and recession – years and other short-term effects.
Used databases:
[Fig. 70] worldwide annual supply of industrial robots from 1998 to 2010 with IFRforecast 2010 to 2014.
Estimated worldwide annual supply of industrial robots (IFR forecast 2011
to 2014)
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
[Fig. 70] Worldwide annual supply of industrial robots from 1998 to 2010 and IFRforecast 2010 to 2014. Gerald Mies 2012
The diagram in [Fig. 70] shows the worldwide annual supply of industrial robots from
1998 to 2010 and IFR- forecast 2010 to 2014. The average annual growth from 1998
to 2014 is 5,67%.
The average annual growth from 5,67%, out the diagram 1998-2014 is used in [Fig.
71] to calculate the future projection up to 2030.
[Fig. 71] Total projection worldwide annual supply of industrial robots 1998 to 2030.
116
Total projection worldwide annual supply of industrial robots 1998 to
2030 (avarage anual growth 5,67%)
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
0
[Fig. 71] Total projection worldwide annual supply of industrial robots 1998 to 2030.
Gerald Mies 2012
Using this method, the annual supply of industrial robots 2030 is estimated to 402.999
units.
Annual supply of industrial robots 2030 is estimated to 402.999 units
This numbers can be used to calculate the operational stock for 2030. The operational
stock of industrial robots, is today defined as the accumulated robot sales of the last 12
years. 12 years is actual average service lifetime of industrial robots. In a future
projection in not only the service lifetime responsible for the intended period of use, it
is also the commercial and technical reasons for replacements of robots. In
consideration on this fact the average time of use is on the assumption of 10 years.
117
Projection operational stock
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
[Fig. 72] Operational stock future projection 2030, industrial robots (robot lifetime 10
years), Gerald Mies 2012
With the projection of the operational stock of industrial robots up to the year 2030
reaches the robot population a rate from 3.329.694 installed units.
Method 1: Future projection 2030 industrial Robots
3.329.694 installed robots in 2030
Method 2:
In method 2 has been assumed, that with the use of the robot density data´s of the high
automated countries, the potential future marked for upcoming industrial countries can
be calculated.
Here is used the average of robot- density (countries [Fig.66]) for automotive industry
with 815 units/10000 employees and general industry with 106 units/10000
employees.
Actual is the growths- rate in robot density between 1,5 to 2% per annum. The small
growth of robot- density in the top 10 automated countries between 2005 and 2010,
and even the decrease in Japan, indicates that there is possible saturation level on the
degree of robot- density. In this context, the growths- rate in robot- density in a future
projection should be limited to an average of 0,5% per annum. With the 0,5%-rate
would be the average robot- density in 2030 for automotive 900units/10000 employees
and for general industry 117units/10000employees. In the calculation chart Fig. 15 are
individual benchmarks used for the high automated markets to get more precise
results.
Used databases:
[Fig. 65] Worldwide robot density industrial robots per 10,000 persons employed in
the manufacturing industry from 2002 to 2010. [Fig. 66] Top 10 countries with the
highest robot density per 10,000 persons employed in the manufacturing industry and
with significant automotive production 2005 to 2010.
118
Distribution chart of the potential robot growth by countries
600.000
500.000
400.000
300.000
200.000
100.000
North America
Brasil Argentina
China
India
Indonesia
Japan
Korea
Malaysia
Singapore
Taiwan
Tailand
Austr Newzea
Austria
beLux
Net
CZ
SK
DK
Finland
France
Germany
Hungary
Italy
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Russan Fed.
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
UK
South Africa
0
Operational stock actual
sum of potential op. Stock, automotive + general industry
[Fig. 73] Distribution chart of the potential robot growth by countries. Gerald Mies
2012
The distribution chart of the potential robot growth in [Fig. 73] shows clearly, in
which countries the future robot- markets arise. Asia, leaded by China, is the continent
with highest growths potential. But also the already high automated countries like
Japan, Germany, Korea and North-America will remain as large robot market in
future. Russia, Brazil and Argentina are in the third group of large automation
markets.
Future projection for the worldwide potential growth by consideration of robot density
in automotive- and general industry:
119
Calculation chart: Future projection of industrial robots for potential operating stock
Operational
stock actual
op. stock
automotive
actual
potential op.
stock
automotive
operational
potential op.
stock general
stock general
industry actual industrie
Sum of potential op.
Stock, automotive +
general industry
Individual benchmark
Americas
North America
Brasil Argentina
173.200
9.000
57.156
4.500
66.819
72.321
116.044
4.500
196.770
175.500
263.589 auto 1300 (J)
247.821
Asia
China
India
Indonesia
Japan
Korea
Malaysia
Singapore
Taiwan
Tailand
Austr Newzea
52.300
4.855
1.300
285.800
101.100
3.700
3.700
26.900
9.600
7.100
28.765
3.399
780
124.319
30.330
1.850
1.850
2.690
5.856
710
223.271
105.471
70.200
124.319
40.440
83.250
83.250
5.368
16.626
10.831
23.535
1.457
520
161.481
70.770
1.850
1.850
24.210
3.744
6.390
305.955
340.821
6.084
161.481
70.770
10.823
10.823
26.186
54.756
11.480
529.226
446.292
76.284
285.800
111.210
94.073
94.073
31.554
71.382
22.311
Europe
Austria
beLux
Net
CZ
SK
DK
Finland
France
Germany
Hungary
Italy
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Russan Fed.
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
UK
5.749
6.250
5.440
4.500
1.900
4.200
4.600
34.000
148.200
1.400
62.400
1.000
3.321
2.280
317
1.058
1.032
28.900
9.387
4.417
2.200
13.500
7.479
7.346
9.346
12.285
1.112
4.200
4.670
28.318
87.462
5.200
49.903
2.539
37.190
11.915
18.545
86.650
3.130
25.071
7.304
11.733
25.740
24.856
South Africa
2.100
20.475
2.295
1.748
10.647
8.109
20.446
79.259
1.000
19.945
142
1.096
752
29.872
91.183
9.474
21.097
294
18.266
1.441
317
310
16.686
2.955
11.426
511
21.281
6.003
880
7.764
15.840
11.744
5.749
6.250
5.440
2.205
152
4.200
4.600
13.554
68.941
400
42.455
868
2.225
1.528
317
741
722
12.214
6.432
4.417
1.320
5.736
1.050
13.500
1.050
total potential operation stock
7.479 GI 134 (D)
7.346 GI 134 (D)
9.346 GI 134 (D)
22.932
9.221
4.200
4.670 GI 134 (D)
58.191
178.645 auto 1300 (J) GI 170 (J)
14.674
71.000 auto 1300 (J) GI 134 (D)
2.833
55.456
13.356
18.545
98.077
3.642
46.352 auto 1130 (D)
13.308 GI 134 (D)
11.733 GI 170 (J)
41.580
36.600
33.975
3.036.774
[Fig. 74] Calculation chart: Future projection of industrial robots for potential
operating stock. Gerald Mies 2012
In the calculation chart [Fig. 74] have been taken into account the individual
benchmarks and special market situations to work out best possible results.
Regarding this calculation there is a potential future robot- market from 3.036.774
units.
Method 2: Future projection 2030 industrial Robots
3.036.774 installed robots in 2030
120
Confronting the results out of projection method 1 and projection method 2, an
amazing result becomes visible.
Projection method 1: 3.329.694 units
Projection method 2: 3.036.774 units
The fact that the results out of these two methods roughly equal, increase the
probability of the quality of this projection.
This shall imply that in the year 2030 three times more robots work in the productions
than today.
1.5.2. SOURCE DATA AND PROJECTION METHODS FOR SERVICE
ROBOTS FOR PROFESSIONAL USE
The source data for professional service robots are by far worse than the industrial
robot data´s. The IFR statistics consider the service robotics since 2009 in a separate
survey. Military and field- robots are with 45% and 30% the largest group in the
section of professional service robots.
Special in the part of field- robots is a weakness of the statistic, because many
industrial robots are used as milking- robots in this section.
Because of the young statistic history is a future projection only with method 1
(section 1.5.1.) possible.
The IFR forecast for professional service robots [129] (World Robotics 2011; pp XV)
shows an annual increase from 18% up to 23% from 2011 to 2014.
Professional service robots are with their technical complexity and with their
investment value very similar to the industrial robots. This admits of the conclusion
that the speed of innovation and investment are comparable. For this reason the future
projection of professional service robots, is calculated with the same growth rates of
industrial robots (2014 to 2030).
Total projection worldwide annual supply of professional service
robots 2009 to 2030 (avarage anual growth 5,67%)
80.000
70.000
60.000
50.000
40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
0
[Fig. 75] Total projection worldwide annual supply of professional service robots 2009
to 2030. Gerald Mies 2012
121
Using this method, the annual supply of professional service robots 2030 is estimated
to 67.671units.
The accumulated numbers of the annual supply is used to calculate the operational
stock for 2030.
Today it gives not a defined for the operational stock calculation in service robotics.
The spread of applications from military, field, medicine, logistics, mobile- platforms
and many others, makes lifetime- estimations very difficult.
Similar like in the industrial area is in a future projection not only the service lifetime
responsible for the intended period of use. It is also the commercial and technical
reasons for replacements of robots.
In consideration on this fact and in consideration of industrial robots, the average time
of use is on the assumption of 10 years.
Projection operational stock, professional service robots
600.000
500.000
400.000
300.000
200.000
100.000
0
[Fig. 76] Operational stock future projection 2030, professional service robots (robot
lifetime 10 years), Gerald Mies 2012
With the projection of the operational stock of professional service robots up to the
year 2030 reaches the robot population a rate from 544.629 installed units.
Future projection 2030 industrial Robots:
544.629 installed professional service robots in 2030
The degree of accuracy in the data projection for service robots is by far not on the
quality- level compared to the projection of industrial robots. The short statistichistory provides only a small database which lead to results.
In case of substantial change of the general conditions in future, the projection can
easy reach 1.000.000 units foe 2030.
122
1.6.
TEACHING OF ROBOTICS
A global world in 2030 with close to 4 million installed robots in industry and
professional service sector will have brought changed to social- and the working
society.
According to Chapter III section 1 is today the main emphasis of robot education the
teaching the basic technical sciences of mechanical and electrical engineering and the
teaching of simulation, programming and application technologies.
The technical science, which already since more than one hundred years the
substructure of the engineering studies provided will keep essential for development
engineers in the robotic.
Teaching technologies like robot- simulation, programming and application, is subject
to the technological progress.
Today is robotic part of the mechanical- or electrical engineering studies. With the
help of sensor systems [Chapter III, section 2.] robots are able see, feel, here and
recognize many other physical events. But is this classification still exact if artificial
intelligence [Chapter IV, section 1.6.] takes place more in the field of robotics? If
robots become able to learn, ore decide and improve them self, robots will get
significant disparities to other machines. So in future, robotics could be a discipline of
mathematics and engineering, or may be an own discipline of robotics.
1.6.1. TEACHING PROFESSIONAL SERVICE ROBOTS
The education for the developers of professional service robots is similar to the
education of developers for industrial robots. The technical universities will not make
a difference between this two robot- types because the technical level is for both on a
very high standard and affect the same technical disciplines.
However in education of application technologies, the professional service robots have
their own direction. Most types of service robots are no serial products. These robots
are built for dedicated applications, in small lots. The application training is often
focused on specialists.
[Fig. 69] shows the shares of applications for professional service robots and gives an
impression of their division. Military (45%) and medicine (30%) cover together 75%
of the market for professional service robots. This two application sections are
exemplary for the robot use of high qualified technicians.
The user or operator of service robots is mostly not the programmer of the system; he
is just the person who uses the function.
Here is a grate similarity with the service robots for personal and domestic use, where
the operability also for layman must be possible. The development of fast, safe and
intuitive usable devices will be a specificity requirement for service robots. Even here
is a broad field of education for special design- engineers on universities.
The challenge for education will be the fast growing markets of service robots.
Even today there is a leak of development engineers in all industrial countries. With
the expected robot population, one of the main duties will be the sufficient recruitment
of students in technical disciplines on technical universities.
123
Professional service robots stay in case of programming close to the industrial robots,
in case of operator usage, they stay close to the service robots for personal and
domestic use.
1.6.2. TEACHING INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS
The education of engineers for the development of robot is in the main subjects
identical to the education of engineers for development of other industrial machines.
Robot developers have additional to consider the universal applicability of industrial
robots compared to other industrial machines. With the enormous growth rate in the
last 25 years, industrial robots became to one of the most important categories in
machine building and engineering.
In the light of the results of the future projection to the expected robot population in
the year 2030 (Chapter V, section 1.3.), is the education in planning and application
engineering in front of large challenges. [Fig. 71] shows that the annual supplier of
industrial robots in 2030 is estimated to 402.999 robots. This is approximately fourtimes more than today.
The industry will meet this challenge for the application programming with fast and
powerful offline and simulation systems and with sensor devices for self-programming
assistance- systems. Even with that equipment, the robot suppliers have to extend their
education programs for their customers and system houses. They have to extend also
there engagement and cooperation with universities and technical high schools to
teach application technologies for the growing demand.
The expected bottleneck is not in development- and application- education, it is in the
field of education for the production- planning. With more than 400.000 new
installations per year the marked needs engineers who are able to plan whole
production- lines with industrial robots. This becomes enabled from the development
side with the increasing number of robot types, robot- abilities and with falling prices
for robots out of mass- production. To plan flexible production lines, without the use
of expensive special- production-machines, engineers must be educated in the field of
available robot-types from all large suppliers, with their abilities and their costs.
This is a complete new direction of education robotics. It goes not in design details
and the bits and bytes of the controllers.
The robot is seen as a black box with a package of functions, abilities and costs.
The product ranges include all sizes and payloads from all suppliers with established
interfaces. With this knowledge, an engineer becomes able to design out of the pallet
of existing robots production lines with high degree on automation and flexibility.
Today only a few production plants worldwide are equipped only with robots. In these
lines, the robot is used for all processes, even for transport of the product between the
production cells. These production lines already form the optimum in flexible
automation. But the implementation of this robot lines is today, because of the
challenging design and high invest, only possible for large automotive companies or
robot supplier for their own production.
124
1.7.
CONCLUSIONS
In the analysis of present education of robotics on technical colleges, universities and
robot suppliers, focus their activities, on robot development and design, on
programming and application technologies and on production science.
This meets more or less the present demand of the markets in the robot industry. The
division of the three subjects is currently not statistically reviewed, but the part
“programming and application technologies” takes by far the largest share.
The demand of programming engineers and application specialists is even today larger
than the number of applicants. As described in chapter III, is one of the dynamics
development- fields of the robot supplier, the field of programming systems.
The vision ant the target of these developments is the “self-teaching and learning
robot” in future.
The most important elements of these development- targets, exist already today. To
this element belongs: Offline- Programming, offline simulation, vision guided
programming, vision calibration, path optimizing, energy optimizing, safety robot and
GPS function and other more. If these elements became in future combined with AItechnologies, the “self-teaching and learning robot” would already exist.
The industry understood, that the requirements for further growth, is the development
of a significant simplification and acceleration of the robot programming.
If the market cannot offer enough technicians and engineers for robot programming
today, this problem will be rise in future with negative consequences for the robot
industry.
Under considering of the progress in this field and under considering of the market
pressure, the “self-teaching and learning robot” becomes most likely real in the next
decade.
The education field of production science becomes a complete new status of
importance under considering the estimated branch- growth in future.
Fully robotized production lines needs forward-looking design concepts to reach
maximum flexibility with highest degree of automation. The know- how requirements
in robotics to the engineers is focused on functions, abilities and costs, plus a deep
knowledge to the actual available robot- types on the global market.
This knowledge enables production engineers the design of production lines with high
degree of flexibility, high efficiency and without big numbers of expensive onepurpose machines.
With these upcoming concepts, large parts of production philosophies will change in
future. To educate people for this challenge, the education establishment and there
institutions have to teach the robot as a chain-linking- universal automation
component; as a commodity.
In practice, this means that education have to change their teaching from a detail- view
of the robot, to an general- view of the robotics; and this in a dynamic system to catch
up the actual technologies.
A similar change in their branch has had the IT-industry in the past. Here changed the
product in nearly two decades from an expensive custom-made product, to a consumer
125
product what is sold today in supermarkets. The impact to the education was the shift
from computer-design to application- software- development.
Chapter V shows, that the way of future teaching of robotics in all education institutes,
is generally dependent on the growths of the robot population.
The data projection in this dissertation is done on conservative databases. Both used
projection methods generated similar results and prognosticate significant growth rates
up to the year 2030.
The conservative approach of the data projections leads to the conclusion that the
results are very probably minimum values.
Even on the consideration on this minimal assumption is the expected impact for
education significant.
Education has to be prepared for this future challenge.
1.8.
NEW SCIENTIFIC RESULTS
New results:
o The investigation of the present methods of teaching robotics and the outlook
how in future the teaching of robotics will be, is strong linked to the growth
development in the future robot population. The date research and the data
analysis from the marked datas of the past and the present, enables the
projection of the robot population in future.
o The future- development in robot – programing is the necessary requirement of
future robot markets. The “self-teaching and learning robot” will be the crucial
upcoming developmental step in the robotics.
o The calculated growth in the future robot market and their spread in the service
robotics, change the status of robotics from an universal,- manipulating
machine, to a commodity as a black box with a package of functions, abilities
and costs.
I made the conclusion that the change of the robot status and with this, the methods of
usage, will also demand new methods of teaching and education robotics. The
education division will shift from robot- design educations more to robot application
and panning education.
Publications:
[30] Mies, Gerald. 2010, “Robotics 2010, Development of Robotics and
Automation in
Industry”;http://www.mfk.unideb.hu/userdir/dmk/docs/20102/10_2_05.pdf
[65] Mies, Gerald 2011, “Principles of Mechanics and Mathematics in Development
of Robots and Robot- Controls”;
http://portal.zmne.hu/download/bjkmk/bsz/bszemle2011/1/MiesG.pdf
[146] Mies, Gerald, 2011: New trend in Robotics, Delta- Robots moving forward,
Research conference on Information Technology
Seventh International PhD & DLA Symposium, University of Pécs, ISBN 978963-7298-46-2; Hungary 2011 24-25 October
126
[99]
Mies, G. 2011, Robotics Influencing Human Society, Debreceni Műszaki
Közlemények 2012/1 (HU ISSN 2060-6869),
http://www.mfk.unideb.hu/userdir/dmk/docs/20121/
CHAPTER VI.
SUMMARISED CONCLUSIONS
The preparation of an outlook in the global robot market up to the year 2030 and their
relationship to the education is a question of mutual dependences.
Market- development in robotics is direct related to the further development in the
education systems. How market- development and development in education works,
have to be investigated under considering of the influencing parameters.
To understand the robotics, as part of engineering, with their continuous change of
position, the research of the history becomes necessary.
The analysis of development from robotics and automation in industry delivers the
results, which part of robotics is the technological driver.
To find out the position of robotics in industry, society and even politics, is it useful to
analyze the role of military robots. It gives the view of robotics influence outside
industrial applications. It becomes visible how narrow path between is between
civilian- and military- use is. It shows also that misuse of technical goods can becomes
to a big thread for distribution of high- technology products.
The research of robot technologies, with their teaching in education, reflects the value
of the knowledge- transfer to the success of the global robot market.
The industrial revolution in the 19th century has shown the impact of technological
development to human society. Robotic write also a new chapter in industrial
production philosophies and influences with this the social society. The investigation
of influence and acceptance of human society shows how dependent technological
products are from their image in public.
The numerical evaluation of the estimated robot population in the year 2030 is the core
of this scientific work. The robot population defines their status in a market and in a
society. The status of robotics in market and society is on the other hand responsible
for the demand and for the characteristic of robot education. The quality of education
is crucial for usage and further growth of robotics.
The scientific investigations by the chapters of this dissertation, try with their
systematic structure and under consideration of the different parameters, to reach a
high quality of their results.
In summary, from today's perspective, the results reaffirm the introductory thesis of
this academic work.
NEW SCIENTIFIC RESULTS
In this dissertation with the title,
“Robotics in 2030 – A new understanding of the relationship of the robotics and
education”,
127
are the scientific results based on the research of following four thesis’s:
Investigation of the past, investigation of human society, investigation of the market
and investigation of role of education in this context. Expressed in four headlines:
 Development motivations and target group as market indications
 Correlation between human society and the status of robotics
 Market development in robotics and future projection
 Education as key- function for the future success of robotics
1. Development motivations and target group as market indications
1.1. Different motivations for development in the history of robotics
o In ancient period: Motivation to simplify daily operations
o In the medieval period: Scientific studies; Technical toys; Economical
motivations in terms of rationalization.
o In the new era or early industrial period: Scientific studies; Feasibility
studies, Economical motivations in terms of rationalization.
o Modern era and future period: Economical motivations in terms of
rationalization, quality assurance, mass production, technical abilities
and changes in human society.
1.2. Different target groups influencing development
o
o
o
o
In ancient period: Devices required for everybody (consumer)
In the medieval period: Scientists; Upper- class- customers; Industry
In the new era or early industrial period: Scientists; Industry
Modern era and future period: Industry; Consumer
I came to the result, that the scientific investigation of relationship from robotics and
education, developing- motivation and target groups are. These are the key elements to
work out exploitable results for future estimations.
2. Correlation between human society and the status of robotics
2.1. The changes status of robotics in human society and markets has a direct
impact on education.
o The robot changed their status from a special machine to the status as a
technical serial commodity.
o In the last 50 years of industrial usage and development, the field of
application of robots has virtually no more limitations.
o With this, changed in the robotic market the need of specialists from the
develop engineer to the engineer for applications. The three examples (Chapter
128
I Section 2.5.) illustrate the challenge to identify a robot application to a
specific task.
In the scientific investigation of relationship from robotics and education, is the
correct status allocation, of robotics, a core issue for future decisions in education.
2.2. There is a permanent changing status of the robotics
o In the last decade, robots have reached the status of a commodity in human
life. With its spread in nearly all kind of industries, in significant military
applications and direct in the human life with the service robots, robotics has
definitely left the status as special machine.
o The process of acceptance of robots in human society, presenting itself as
ongoing, permanent evolution to each new upcoming technology.
I my academic work I developed the theory, that with the positive experience out of
the past in industry, in future no opposition against robotics is to be expected.
In military- and service robotic, in contrast, is the broad use of robot technology quite
new and will consequently create proportionate opposition; in military section
generated by the fast growing use of UAVs and in the service section with the use of
robots in direct human care.
2.3. Acceptance of intelligent machines in human environment
o The complex requirements for human senses in simple tasks of human life, is
today still an insuperable barrier for commercial installed robots. In the light of
cost-benefit ratio, in closer future will be no significant numbers of robots
installed in the area of private life.
o The new understanding of robotics will be the new understanding of
manifestation of robots. In military as drone, in computing as AI- Software, or
in medicine as electronic substitute in an organ of a human body.
I made the conclusion that the position of robotics in society permanently changes
with the focus of the present top development item and if results became determinable
in public. The seeming endless develop resource of software became visible for public,
when the “Apps” enter the markets. The new understanding of robotic (for public) is
acceptance of intelligent machines in human environment.
3. Market development in robotics and future projection
3.1. Barriers and threats to the market growth of the robotic
o In the light of terror threat by accessible, technical, industrial product, are the
security standard in case of export control far behind the current technical
129
potentials. Governmental rules are focused on trade regulations and not on
technical security solutions, like movement- sensors, GPS- positioning or
password- protection. Today`s industrial products with CNC- technology are
able to be modified to prevent the use of unauthorized operating.
In the scientific investigation of the global growth of the robotic market, is security an
important item for an unrestricted distribution of high- technology components.
3.2. Software- technology as catalyst to robotics market growth
o In the past, the industrial and scientific software- development represents the
current top- level of feasibility.
o With the opening of the public, as software-development- resource, the
consumer- marked overtake for the first time the industrial development, in
case of speed and creativity and innovations.
o The robot as a unique universal industrial machine depends strongly on
software development. Much more than other industrial equipment.
I have investigated that since at least 2010 robot supplier work on similar open
develop platforms, like in the smartphone- industry. If they succeed in their
developments, those suppliers will create an enormous source on developmentresources in their customer environment, where today the most of all application
software is used and enhanced.
I developed the theory that the success in these software- developments will have
significant influence on the opening of new application- markets for robots.
3.3. Military robots as dominating factor of market- growth in the category
“service robots for professional use”
o In the past military robots, or robotized military equipment, were important
parts of warfare but not decisive for the outcome of a war.
o With the global changed security situation, military robots, in particular the
unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) became an important military system. This is
the first essential breakthrough in the history of military robots.
In the scientific investigation to prepare the future projection of the robot population in
2030, the military robots became an important quantity as major part of “service
robots for professional use” (according to UNECE (United Nations Economic
Commission for Europe) and IFR (International Robot Federation) definition).
130
4. Education as key- function for the future success of robotics
4.1. Robot supplier and universities are responsible for demand-oriented teaching
and education.
o The elementary basics for development engineers in robot education were in
the past and will be in future, the mathematics and mechanics, served by the
universities.
o Application specific education is a constantly continue developing process
dependent from the state of the art in robot- programming and simulation,
served mostly in the training centers at the robot supplier.
o Beside basic development education and application specific education, comes
up the marked demand for educated technicians with knowledge of robotized
production planning.
In the scientific work I have investigated that the curriculum- plans of universities and
robot supplier focus not on robotized production planning.
The prospective increase of the robot population with the prospective increase of
different robot models and robot application software will raise this demand
substantially.
I developed the theory, that the future market success of robotics is direct related to the
amount of specialists who are qualified to design production lines out of the existing
robot portfolio, of these suppliers.
4.2. The permanent changing robot- status implied permanent modification of
teaching methods
o The investigation of the present methods of teaching robotics and the outlook
how in future the teaching of robotics will be, is strong linked to the growth
development in the future robot population. The data research and -analysis
from the marked of past and the present, enables the projection of the robot
population in future.
o The development in robot- programing is the necessary requirement of the
future robot markets. The “self-teaching and learning robot” will be the crucial
upcoming developmental step in the robotics.
o The calculated growth in the future robot market and their spread in the service
robotics, change the status of robotics from an universal, manipulating
machine, to a commodity seen as a “black box” with a package of functions,
abilities and costs.
I made the conclusion that the change of the robot status and with this, the methods of
usage, will also demand new methods of teaching and education robotics. The
education division will shift from robot- design educations more to robot application
and panning education.
131
RECOMMENDATIONS
The scientific result of the dissertation provides also the structure to address the
recommendations.
There are three relevant groups: Industry, education and associations.
1. INDUSTRY
With the continuous increase of automation and robotic, production becomes more
independent from labor costs. The decision for locations of production- plants will be
done, according to the best infrastructure and according to the location of the productcustomers. In opposite to the outsourcing politics in the last two decades, productions
will come back, close to the design offices or close to the customers of the products.
The industry should focus on long term production planning, with high automated and
flexible production lines, on places with excellent supplier infrastructure. With the
same rate of growth in robotics, industry has also increase their investments in
engineer- educations.
2. EDUCATION
Education has to consider that the robotics will take place a very unique status in
engineering. With the permanent growth of robot population the market will demand
engineers with skills to plan complete production lines with robots, to reach the
maximum production capacity with the maximum of flexibility. Universities have to
start interdisciplinary robot- education, with parts of mechanical-engineering,
electrical- engineering and economics.
Universities have to cooperate close with the leading robot supplier to ensure state of
the art- education. Students have to study newest robot- technology and build up
actual- and deep market- knowledge.
3. ASSOCIATIONS
The associations have to deliver detailed robot statistics to enable the robot- supplier
forecasts for quantities and technical trends. The associations have also to work out
rules and regulations to harmonize the design of robot- interfaces and programming
languages. Target should be, a robot- mix in production- lines of robots from different
suppliers.
Associations, industry and education have a common responsibility to provide
attractive infrastructures to support the decision of young students to study robotics
and related disciplines. To educate enough qualified engineers, is the future challenge
of the organizations in robotics.
132
CHAPTER VII
1. RELEVANT PUBLICATIONS
[19]
Róbert SZABOLCSI – Gerald MIES: Robotics in Nutshell – Past and Future,
CD-ROM Proceedings of the VIth International Conference „New Challenges
in the Field of Military Sciences, ISBN 978-963-87706-4-6, 18-19 November
2009, Budapest, Hungary.
[30]
Mies, Gerald. 2010, “Robotics 2010, Development of Robotics and
Automation in Industry”
http://www.mfk.unideb.hu/userdir/dmk/docs/20102/10_2_05.pdf
[31]
Mies, Gerald 2010, “Military Robots of Present and Future”;
AARMS Vol. 9, No. 1 (2010) 125–137, May 31, 2010;
http://www.zmne.hu/aarms/docs/Volume9/Issue1/html/12.html
[50]
Mies, Gerald 2010,”Terror Threat from using accessible Industrial, Technical
Products” AARMS Vol. 9, No. 1 (2010) 107–116;
http://www.zmne.hu/aarms/docs/Volume9/Issue1/html/10.html
[65]
Mies, G. 2011, “Principles of Mechanics and Mathematics in Development of
Robots and Robot- Controls”;
http://portal.zmne.hu/download/bjkmk/bsz/bszemle2011/1/MiesG.pdf
[77]
Mies, G. 2012, Principles of Controls, Sensoric and Software Development of
automation and robots, http://www.szrfk.hu/rtk/
[99]
Mies, G. 2011, Robotics Influencing Human Society, Debreceni Műszaki
Közlemények 2012/1 (HU ISSN 2060-6869),
http://www.mfk.unideb.hu/userdir/dmk/docs/20121/
[146] Mies, Gerald, 2011: New trend in Robotics, Delta- Robots moving forward,
Research conference on Information Technology
Seventh International PhD & DLA Symposium, University of Pécs, ISBN 978963-7298-46-2; Hungary 2011 24-25 October
[147] Mies, Gerald, 2012: New Understanding of Robotics
http://hadmernok.hu/2012_3_mies.pdf
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4. FIGURES
1. R.U.R - Rossums Universal Robots
di Karel Capek (1920 CEC) https://encryptedtbn1.google.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRzQygL7O3R1Md6RKjJmXVuqoxT
FpCIlEzahS1voZtP9Lt4utju9A
2. Metropolis Fritz Lang (1927 GER 153')
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_kBNnyETKMIk/Si3RqfGBs5I/AAAAAAAABp4/z
C7In7Sfj68/s400/metropolis_robot_rings.jpg
3. Unimate robot hand
142
http://www.sciencenavigators.org/snavi/wpcontent/uploads/2012/02/ELT200805130626387969994-305x285.jpg
4. Shaduf: Edwards, Amelia B. "A Thousand Miles up the Nile." George
Routledge and Sons, Limited: London, 1890. p 073
5. Needham, 1959, 313f, Babylonian water clock
6. Model of a robot based on drawings by Leonardo da Vinci;
Photo by Erik Möller. Leonardo da Vinci. Mensch - Erfinder - Genie exhibit,
Berlin 2005.
7. Jaques de Vaucansons “Digesting Duck” from 1739; Museum of Automations,
Grenoble
8. Samuel Cromptons “Spinning Mule” by 1779;
http://www.boltonmuseums.org.uk/images/localhistory/spinning-mule-m.jpg
9. Gakutensoku, 1928 Osaka Science Museum
http://www.pinktentacle.com/images/gakutensoku_2.jpg
10. Programmable digital Computer Z3, Konrad Zuse 1941
http://www.bandt-computertechnik.de/images/ZUSE/Z3_1-TH.jpg
11. Unimate Robot at General Motors 1959,
Angelo, J. A. (2007). Robotics: a reference guide to the new technology. Santa
Barbara, United States: Libraries Unlimited.
12. Vision guided Multiarm Robot, FANUC Robotics Japan, 1989; company
picture
13. Foitzik, B. Bilderarchiv, Neustadt a.d.W.; Industrial robot, Japan, 1973
14. Foitzik, B. Bilderarchiv, Neustadt a.d.W.; Kamera-Greifer, 1973.
15. Bodyshop at Opel, 1995; FANUC Robotics Japan, 1995; company picture
16. Foitzik,B.: „Rose Cutter Robot“ „Rosenkavalier – Roboter in der industriellen
Rosenproduktion“, in Automation, Ausgabe 1/06, Henrich, Gilching 2006
(ISSN 1612-6475)
17. Wickham, D.: „Lettuce handling with Robots“; Roboter senken Kosten beim
Salatverpacken um 80 %”, in Maschinenmarkt, „Automatica Magazin 2008,
Vogel, Würzburg (ISSN: 0341-5775)
18. Two-arm FANUC Robot 1995, Japan; FANUC Robotics Japan, 1989;
company picture
19. Robot Collaboration. FANUC Multiarm System; Japan; FANUC Robotics
Japan, 2006; company picture.
20. Meissner, “Electric Dog”; www.davidszondy.com
21. Kettering bug; 1917
http://de.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Datei:Kettering_Bug.jpg&filetimesta
mp=20060704143112
22. Goliath, World War II; http://realitypod.com/wpcontent/uploads/2010/04/14_Goliath_Tanklge.png
23. V2 missile, 1944; commons.wikimedia.org
24. Cruise missile 1990, “Tomahawk”;
http://tonyrogers.com/images/weapons/tomahawk_01_large.jpg
25. GPS satellite network,1994 ; http://www.tavrosnetworks.com/images/sat.jpg
26. Predator Drone, Remote piloted aircraft, UAV , 1995;
http://www.writetrack.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/predator.jpg
27. Packbot Explorer; http://static.ddmcdn.com/gif/military-robot-22.jpg
28. Spartan Scout, USV(Unmanned Surface Vessels);
ttp://3.bp.blogspot.com/_LXviI4rN67M/TN_cfQfK1XI/AAAAAAAAAkE/UG
OPpjsrs9o/s1600/spartan+scout.jpg
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29. Boeing X-45 unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV)
http://i3.squidoocdn.com/resize/squidoo_images/590/draft_lens13722121modu
le121925401photo_1285492390boeing_x-45a_ucav.jpg
30. Boeing X-37; http://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/boeingx37/images/1-boeing-x37.jpg
31. DARPA Grand Challenge, 2005,
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a7/KAT5MILE8.jpg
/800px-KAT5MILE8.jpg
32. Israeli-made Aerostar drone;
http://asbarez.com/App/Asbarez/eng/2011/10/1018drone.jpg
33. Basra, Iraq; Singer, P. W. (2009). Wired For War. The Penguin Press.(p.271)
New York. ISBN 978-1-5942-0198-1.
34. Definition of joint coordinate systems; Hommel, G. et al: Roboter Kinematik,
research report 1990-15. Department of Process Data Processing and Robotics,
Faculty IV Electrical Engineering and Information, Technical University
Berlin 1990.
35. Approximation algorithms for the modified inverse kinematics; Wiest, U.:
Kinematische Kalibrierung von Industrierobotern. Dissertation to the Faculty
of Information at the University of Karlsruhe, 2001
36. Transformation Tool coordinates → „World“ coordinates; Lecture University
Duisburg-Essen, Germany
37. Mathematical description of a straight line in a plane; Stark, G.: Robotik mit
MATLAB. Fachbuchverlag Leipzig im Carl Hanser Verlag, Munich 2009
(ISBN 978 3 446 41962 9)
38. The homogeneous matrix is described as a Denavit- Hartenberg matrix; Anton,
S.: Inverse Kinematik am Robotersimulationsprogramm Easy-Rob. Mittweida
University of Applied Sciences Robotics Workshop, Institute of Automation
Engineering. October 2004
39. Transformation matrixes for rotation and translatory movement; Stark, G.:
Robotik mit MATLAB. Fachbuchverlag Leipzig im Carl Hanser Verlag,
Munich 2009 (ISBN 978 3 446 41962 9)
40. Two possibilities of representing the track of a robot; Snyder, Wesley
E.Computergesteuerte Industrieroboter Grundlagen u. Einsatz
VCH Verlag, 1990 ISBN 3-527-26630-5. (according robot Age)
41. FANUC Robotics Maintenance Handbook, S-420 Controller with SideCabinet, 1990, www.fanuc.co.jp
42. FANUC Robotics Maintenance Handbook, Controller R-30iA, 2010,
www.fanuc.co.jp
43. Control scheme SCHUBERT Roboter; http://www.lachmannrink.de/projekte/schubert/dia1500-tiger3.jpg
44. Statistical distribution Robot payload types: 2001 to 2008, G.Mies, 2012, based
on VDMA Statistic 2001, Germany; VDMA Statistic 2008, Germany
45. Schematics of a robot arm without HSCD; Technical Presentation FANUC
Robotics Deutschland, 2006
46. Flowchart collision detection HSCD; FANUC Robotics Deutschland,
Technical Presentations, 2006
47. Schematics of a robot arm with using HSCD; FANUC Robotics Deutschland,
Technical Presentations, 2006
48. Axis 1 and 2 of a robot with secured two-channeled hardware way; FANUC
Robotics, Technical Presentations 2006, Hardware zone switch
144
49. Flowchart of the Dual-Check-Safety-system; FANUC Robotics, Technical
Presentations, Dual-Check Safety, 2009
50. FANUC Robot-Link; FANUC Robotics, Technical Presentations, Robot-Link,
2002
51. Multi-Arm Robots; Technical Presentations FANUC Robotics, 2006,
52. Energy flow analysis; Wagner, Klaus; 2011; Fanuc Robot R2000 series
53. Energy-Optimizing with FANUC ROBOGUIDE; Wagner, Klaus; 2011
54. Navstar 2 GPS satellite;
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3e/Navstar-2.jpg
55. The MQ-9 called also “Reaper”, counts to the fight drones who are used in
Afghanistan and Pakistan. FOCUS online 5.2012
56. Yaskawa robotics strategy for the service industry (from yaskawa.co.jp)
57. Classification of industrial robots by mechanical structure; World Robotics
2011, p7, f I.1
58. Estimated worldwide annual supply of industrial robots at year-end
by industries 2008 – 2010; World Robotics 2011, p IX
59. According to Tabel I.2 World Robotics 2011
60. Shares of applications, industrial robots 2010, Gerald Mies 2012
61. World Robotics 2011, pp 21
62. Industrial robot shipments according years and regions; World Robotics 2011,
pp21
63. Robot density by counties >51Robot/10000employees; World Robotics 2011
64. Robot density by counties <51Robot/10000employees; World Robotics 2011
65. Estimated number of multipurpose industrial robots per 10,000 persons
employed in the manufacturing industry from 2002 to 2010.
66. Estimated number of multipurpose industrial robots per 10,000 persons
employed in automotive industry and in all other industries; World Robotics
2011
67. Development of robot- density in automotive industry in the 10 most important
supplier countries. Gerald Mies 2012.
68. Development of robot- density in general industry in the 10 most important
supplier countries. Gerald Mies 2012.
69. Shares of applications, professional service robots 2010, Gerald Mies 2012
70. Worldwide annual supply of industrial robots from 1998 to 2010 and IFRforecast 2010 to 2014. Gerald Mies 2012
71. Total projection worldwide annual supply of industrial robots 1998 to 2030.
Gerald Mies 2012
72. Operational stock future projection 2030, industrial robots (robot lifetime 10
years), Gerald Mies 2012
73. Distribution chart of the potential robot growth by countries. Gerald Mies 2012
74. Calculation chart: Future projection of industrial robots for potential
operating stock. Gerald Mies 2012
75. Total projection worldwide annual supply of professional service robots 2009
to 2030. Gerald Mies 2012
76. Operational stock future projection 2030, professional service robots (robot
lifetime 10 years), Gerald Mies 2012
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